05/03/2018 Daily Politics


05/03/2018

Jo Coburn is joined by Mary Creagh MP and Alex Burghart MP to discuss the Brexit negotiations and the potential for a new EU-US trade war over the steel industry.


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Transcript


LineFromTo

Hello, and welcome

to the Daily Politics.

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Has Theresa May achieved

the impossible and managed

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to unite her party on Brexit?

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Her latest speech seems to have

landed reasonably well,

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at least on the domestic front.

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But will the EU buy

into what she calls her "ambitious

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and practical" vision

for the future relationship?

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Donald Trump says he will impose big

tariffs on imports of steel

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and aluminium to the US.

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Theresa May expresses

her "deep concern" -

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but what does it mean

for the special relationship once

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we leave the EU?

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On the domestic front,

the Prime Minister returns

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to her promise to "fix the broken

housing market" with fresh action

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to boost house building.

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Will it work?

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We'll speak to the new

housing minister.

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A populist surge in

the Italian elections leaves

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the traditional parties reeling.

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We'll look at the rise

of anti-establishment

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politics across Europe.

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All that in the next hour,

and with us for the whole

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of the programme today,

two of Westminster's

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brightest young things -

well, youngish, at least -

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Labour MP Mary Creagh

and Conservative MP Alex Burghart.

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Welcome to you both.

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First today...

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Dismay about the prospect

of a new trade war is brewing,

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after President Trump announced

plans to impose new tariffs

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of 25% on steel imports

and 10% on aluminium.

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He said those industries in America

had been "decimated" by decades

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of unfair trade policy -

and that America couldn't

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let its workers and companies be

exploited any longer.

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The move was greeted by threats

of retaliation and widespread

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criticism from leaders around

the world - but that seems to have

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fallen on deaf ears.

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Over the weekend, President Trump

doubled down on his remarks,

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saying that the American steel

industry was in bad shape -

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and that if you don't have steel,

you don't have a country.

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Yesterday, Theresa May spoke

to the President by phone

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and expressed her "deep concern"

at the proposed new tariffs -

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echoing fears it could

spark a new trade war.

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But the advice seems

to have gone unheeded -

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President Trump tweeting hours later

that America was on the losing side

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of almost all trade deals,

had been taken advantage

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of for years, and that it

was time for a change.

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Well, yesterday, Cabinet Office

Minister David Lidington

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was on the Sunday Politics,

where he outlined the

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Government's concern.

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The United States is...

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Is not taking an advisable course

in threatening a trade war.

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Trade wars don't do

anybody any good.

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We tried in Britain, in the '60s

and '70s, protecting our car

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industry from competition.

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That actually didn't work.

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It protected inefficiencies.

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We lost all our export markets,

because our competitors,

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who were more competitive,

went out and gobbled those up

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from us, and the car industry had

to go through a very,

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very painful restructuring to get

to the success story it is now.

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David Lidington there.

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The problem is, Donald Trump isn't

changing his course of action. In

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fact it seems to have hardened.

Trump's top trade adviser said there

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would be no exceptions made in the

tariff hike. So what does the UK

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Government to do?

How shall I put

this? The president has a unique way

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with language and it is not always

the case that what he says at first

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actually plays out as it is reported

so I am a little hesitant to make

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the assumption that this is

definitely going to happen later

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this week but if it does, I think it

will be quite damaging for the world

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economy and I'm sure that the

President is trying to protect his

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base, steel manufacturers in the US,

but I think what he will see as a

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result is that the cost of living

goes up as trade barriers are put up

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by other countries. As David

Lidington said, we strongly advise

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the US to would going down this

route.

It has fallen on deaf ears.

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Is your policy one of fingers

crossed, he just won't carry through

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what he is threatening to do?

As you

have already said, we are in

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dialogue with the American

presidency. It is not just a

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question of one phone call and then

it is done. We are in the process of

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negotiation and I'm sure the

president has some means that he

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wants to achieve.

What is plan B?

Plan a is what we are still at the

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moment, which is negotiation with

the US. If that doesn't work, we

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will be looking to see if we can get

some special pleading for the UK and

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I assume that is what ministers will

do because, as you will know, an

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early draft of this proposed

arrangement was leaked to the press

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and it suggested that Britain and

Canada and Mexico would all be

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exempt.

But that has been dropped.

Says a full exemption has been

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dropped but that is not to say that

the same tariffs would be applied to

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all the countries.

What would your

special pleading include?

We are a

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very close ally of the US, actually

the US don't have a problem with our

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steel industry that they have with

China. They have a problem with the

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steel industry as they have with the

EU. We are quite a small player in

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the world of steel so I don't think

taking punitive measures against us

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will necessarily achieve what he

wants.

But he has made a fairly

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passionate defence of what he has

seen as decades of decline and

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damage done to America's steel

industry so if he does push ahead

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with a 25 the centre out on steel

imports and 10% on aluminium, would

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usable retaliation?

Would depend on

what that retaliation was and I

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don't really want to see the world

getting involved in a massive trade

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war. I think that would be very

damaging for everybody. We do need

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to take our next up very carefully.

Mary Creagh, Jeremy Corbyn, the

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Labour leader, will have some

sympathy with Donald Rob, warranty,

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because he is keen on advocating a

policy to protect industries here,

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like steel?

I have some suburbia

with Donald Trump. I agree, if you

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don't have steel then you don't have

an industrial base, in the same way

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as if you don't have a chemical

sector you don't have an industrial

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base either.

So do you also support

putting huge tariffs?

Of course not

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and nobody wants to see a new round

of trade was. Having grown up in

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Coventry, and manufacturing city in

the Midlands and 1980s, I have seen

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the painful restructuring that the

car industry went through in the

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1980s but what I think this is is a

brutal wake up call for the

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Brexiters who have been saying that

we will do a quick fair trade deal

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with Donald Trump. Canada is in a

free trade arrangement with the US.

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Their steel is going to be subject

to these tariffs as well. So a free

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trade deal doesn't really get us

very far and I think what Alex

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hasn't said is, we will be working

with our EU partners, our voices

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amplified as part of the EU in our

discussions with Donald Roger

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Dock

Would usable retaliation by the

EU bloc?

Nobody wants to get that

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that stage. We're seeing concerns on

the stock markets, US forces. If it

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comes down to it, we should take

action with our EU partners.

It is a

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wake up call in terms of a

free-trade partnership with the US.

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That would not entitle Britain, it

seems, in any way to preferential

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treatment.

Let's see what actually

happens later in the week. There are

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signs that Canada, Britain and

Mexico may be getting a different

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deal and that is because they have

very strong bilateral relationships

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with the United States.

That was the

initial sanding and that has now

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been dropped.

As I say, we have to

see how this will play out. What has

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been ruled out is that no country

will have a complete exemption. That

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is different to their not being any

special tariff for close allies.

All

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right, let's leave it there.

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Well, all that comes in the wake

of Theresa May's big Brexit speech

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on Friday, in which she put more

flesh on the bones of what she hopes

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life outside the EU will look like.

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It seems to have gone

down reasonably well

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on the domestic front,

and we should start to get a sense

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this week of the EU's thinking.

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As well as that, here's

a rundown of the other big

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stories this week...

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This afternoon Theresa May

will make a statement

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in the Commons following her

Mansion House speech

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at the end of last week.

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Also this week, the

European Council will send

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a set of draft guidelines

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for the next phase of Brexit talks -

this could come

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as early as tomorrow.

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Wednesday sees Theresa May

and Jeremy Corbyn have their

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weekly duel at PMQs.

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On Thursday, Parliament

marks the fact that it's

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International Women's Day,

with the house noting the steps

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being taken to press for progress

on gender equality around the world.

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Well, to walk us through a big week

for Theresa May, we can talk

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to Emily Ashton from Buzzfeed,

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and the Telegraph's

Christopher Hope.

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They're on College Green for us.

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There is no more snow! It has

finally disappeared so you are not

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freezing like your colleagues last

week. Christopher, a rare outbreak

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of relative unity on both sides of

the Tory party. How long can it

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last?

Maybe until Tuesday. We are

doing pretty well so far. We saw

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Jacob Rees-Mogg and Nicky Morgan in

our paper on Saturday saying what a

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great speech it was, how uniting it

is. We are hearing... Tomorrow we

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get the guidelines on negotiations

and we will see how they go. Yet

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again, Theresa May says a big speech

but nothing happens for three months

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and it trends downwards and

Remainers get stuck into the lack of

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information and vegetables it out of

the bag again. She is taking blows

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on the rope as if she is going to

fall over and never quite does, so

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we have this blissful spring air,

this hardly over Brexit. Isn't it

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great?

Emily, is it likely that the

amendment put down by Anna Soubry

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and Ken Clarke, who are seen as art

Remainers in the Conservative Party,

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an amendment to the trade bill which

will come back later this year,

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which course in the UK to come into

a customs union, is there a sense

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that will be dropped?

You do get a

sense it might be pushed down the

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road, if not dropped altogether.

This was probably the most detailed

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speech from Theresa May yet but it

really did like specifics. She talks

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about managed to divert and is, we

are definitely not going to be the

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single market or the customs union

but we will be in some kind of

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customs arrangement and that wins

over some Remainers. We don't have

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the details to know exactly what the

difference is yet so for now, Nicky

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Morgan and others are quite content

to, OK, let's see how that goes, and

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as you say that amendment was quite

a big deal because it could have had

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a no-confidence motion attached to

it. That was the rumour.

Alex

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Burghart, what was new, what was

dramatically new in that speech, or

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conceded by Theresa May?

What was

lovely about the speech was the

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absolute disappointment of

journalists on Sunday, who are

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absolutely incapable of finding

anyone other than Michael Heseltine

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to say that it wasn't up to scratch.

So what we have is a very unifying

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speech, which has, at the end of

this process, this phase, pulled

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together from both sides what we can

actually do, practically do...

But

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what was new? What was then you

think she announced that really

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moves these negotiations on?

What

moves the sun is that we have set

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out very clearly what our

negotiating position is, going into

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the final...

But we knew about

living a customs union and the

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single market and we knew

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there was going to be an element of

managed to diverging somebody wanted

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technological solutions for the

Irish border. What was new?

All of

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these things are going to be

extremely important as we go into

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the next phase. It is now been set

by the Prime Minister on the eve of

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the most important we will have a

generation and it will form the

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basis of what happens. The PM has

set out that this is a negotiating

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position, that both sides are going

to have to make compromises but it

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enables her to deliver on the

Lancaster House speech, which is

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essentially what both wings of the

Conservative Party wanted Dock

She

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can only deliver, Christopher hope,

Matt Lancaster House speech if the

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EU agreed what was set out in

watches on Friday, and apart from a

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fat that I can't really see anything

that massively changes the dial

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apart from this attempt at unifying

both sides of the party, will the EU

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accepted?

They may or they may not.

They are still angling over the

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border with the EU, and it would

appear now in the island of Ireland.

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She said some quite new things. I

would take issue with your guest in

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the studio. She talked about how 80

% of goods will travel north, south,

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and not be checked across the

border, 20% might be, which might be

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by CCTV cameras. Or the congestion

charge camera to grow Boris Johnson.

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That was pretty new. I thought the

fact she was going to attach

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financial services to the treaty

with the EU when we negotiate and

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passporting is now a job. There will

be a speech on Wednesday when it

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will be made clear that the EU

agreed on the TTIP to put financial

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services into that deal. Why can't

they do it with Brexit?

But in a

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sense we sort of knew that was the

direction of travel from the

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government. What we don't get a

sense of is, is the EU going to sign

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up to what they will still regard as

cherry picking in many instances

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and, also, allowing the mutual

recognition until such time that

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parliament chooses to divert?

You

have already seen some action from

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the EU. -- reaction. You saw diva of

start, who was pretty scathing about

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it. -- Guy Verhofstadt. They are a

bit baffled. You can't say I am

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going to avoid a hard border in

Ireland but also one frictionless

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trade. You can't say both. Where are

the details allowing that to happen?

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You can't just do it to the EU and

say, can you sort this problem out

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because the ball is in your court? I

think they are a bit frustrated with

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the lack of detail.

Mary Creagh, in

terms of Labour

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terms of Labour pub's policy, does

that solve the issue of the Irish

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border?

It doesn't do they go some

way to solving it but we have to

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stay in the single market if we are

to maintain a frictionless invisible

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border across the island of Ireland.

I have called on Jeremy... I have

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been voting to stay in the customs

union. I think a customs union is a

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semantic phrase but I think we will

need to go further and faster on

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this in the Labour Party but can I

do say, on the Prime Minister's

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speech, she has moved from running

through fields of wheat to walking

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through a cherry orchard that is not

yet in flower, let alone fruiting,

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and these cherries are not on offer

from the EU.

It is a negotiation,

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isn't it?

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isn't it?

The aviation agency, the

medicines agency... We cannot sit

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around the table and have a vote.

That is not on offer to us and I

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think the key part of the speech was

the bit where she said we would have

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less access to each other's markets.

That is the truth of Brexit, the

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Brexit that was the exact same

benefits which was to the British

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people cannot be delivered.

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I am so sick of cherry and cake

metaphors.

I think the government

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only ones that mentioned those

metaphors won more than one

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occasion.

That's what she told

people.

The PM has said we are going

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to have, you know, less free access

to each other Bosman markets.

The

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exact same benefits was what we were

told.

Obviously what comes along

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with this was the ability to strike

free trade deals with other

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countries and jurisdictions.

Like

the US.

Yes but also countries in

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the second world, New World,

developing world. Having trade deals

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that will help bring down the cost

of living for people in the UK,

0:16:290:16:32

things we can't currently do. That

is part of the opportunity of

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Brexit.

The analysis has implied so

fight wouldn't replace potential

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loss of trade.

It depends on how you

do it. -- implied it wouldn't

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replace.

Emily, do you think the

speech by Theresa May has somewhat

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blunted Labour's announcement that

they are going to stay in a customs

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union?

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Yeah. Labour were obviously keen to

join Anna Soubry's Amendment. And

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hopefully defeat the government and

causing the government problems. For

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the Remoaners to maybe back away

from that amendment hasn't done

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Labour any favours. -- for the

Remainers. It seems better

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relationships in the Tory party but

we will see there's deep divides

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form again.

Thank you very much --

those deep divides.

0:17:200:17:24

One of the crucial issues still be

resolved in the Brexit talks

0:17:240:17:27

is the Irish border.

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In her speech on Friday, Theresa May

suggested that a hard border

0:17:280:17:33

between Northern Ireland

and the Republic.

0:17:330:17:37

Perhaps by using technology and

exempting small businesses.

0:17:370:17:41

Which account for 80%

of cross-border trade, from checks.

0:17:410:17:43

Ireland's Deputy Prime Minister,

Simon Coveney, gave his reaction

0:17:430:17:45

on the Andrew Marr show yesterday.

0:17:450:17:47

I'm not sure that the European Union

will be able to support

0:17:470:17:51

a situation whereby 80%

of companies that trade...

0:17:510:17:53

Ah, well...

0:17:530:17:55

..North-South and South-North

will actually protect the integrity

0:17:550:17:57

of the EU single market,

which will be a big priority

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for the EU negotiating team.

0:18:000:18:01

OK.

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While, of course, we will explore

and look at all of the proposed

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British solutions,

they are essentially a starting

0:18:070:18:09

point in negotiations

as opposed to an end point.

0:18:090:18:15

Joining me now from Belfast

is Dr Katy Hayward, an academic

0:18:150:18:18

from Queen's University Belfast.

0:18:180:18:19

She's an expert on Irish

cross-border relations

0:18:190:18:21

and EU integration.

0:18:210:18:27

Welcome to the Daily Politics.

Theresa May said on Friday she

0:18:280:18:31

offered not one but two separate

solutions to the Irish border issue

0:18:310:18:34

after Brexit and that now it's

incumbent on the EU to give those

0:18:340:18:39

options serious considerations. Is

she right?

We only heard on Friday a

0:18:390:18:45

reiteration of what she had said in

August, which is customs union

0:18:450:18:48

partnership and customs arrangement

which was already dismissed by the

0:18:480:18:53

EU as being magical thinking. It's

quite, significant that the customs

0:18:530:18:59

partnership idea has not progressed

any further. A customs union, you

0:18:590:19:03

are either in or out and the

suggestion that 80% of traders

0:19:030:19:08

wouldn't be subject to customs

requirement is nonsensical because

0:19:080:19:12

it means you are essentially saying

your border is open.

You say it's

0:19:120:19:16

nonsensical. At this customs

partnership that you have outlined,

0:19:160:19:20

it would be where we would agree to

charge the EU's tariffs on goods

0:19:200:19:25

heading to the continent via the UK

and we wouldn't need to check them

0:19:250:19:29

when moving to the UK from the EU.

What is wrong with that?

A customs

0:19:290:19:37

union arrangement is essentially...

You are dealing with what the UK is

0:19:370:19:42

saying for their country and the EU.

If you have different arrangements

0:19:420:19:48

between the UK and EU third

countries, you have to have

0:19:480:19:53

different implications for the

border, the management of that

0:19:530:19:56

border. It is impossible to enact

two different customs arrangements

0:19:560:19:59

at the same time.

Can you explain it

for our viewers? It is difficult to

0:19:590:20:06

imagine for all of us exactly what

it would mean in practice. Theresa

0:20:060:20:10

May also talks about technology

being used, which would mean there

0:20:100:20:13

would be a sort of invisible border

because you could preregister

0:20:130:20:17

companies, you could have a set of

trusted traders. Why is that not

0:20:170:20:21

workable?

Technology can be used to

make a customs border control more

0:20:210:20:28

efficient and certainly speed up

movement across a customs border and

0:20:280:20:32

a trusted Trader scheme is

well-established.

0:20:320:20:36

But it doesn't replace the need for

clarity about what that customs

0:20:360:20:40

border arrangement actually is. I've

described it before, you are

0:20:400:20:43

thinking about technology as trying

to think about the light fittings in

0:20:430:20:48

a house before you've even got the

planning permission for the house.

0:20:480:20:52

It is that planning permission, the

structures of the house that needs

0:20:520:20:54

much more

0:20:540:21:01

much more clarity. Technology does

not replace the need to enact a

0:21:010:21:04

customs border, it is just a means

of doing so.

When we talk about a

0:21:040:21:09

hardboard and everybody says they

want to avoid a hard border, is that

0:21:090:21:12

cameras along the 300 miles? Is it

infrastructure that would stop a

0:21:120:21:18

number of trucks and deliveries

coming through that border? Is that

0:21:180:21:24

what a hardboard looks like?

A

hardboard is felt in the differences

0:21:240:21:28

on either side.

-- hard border looks

like.

For example, what a business

0:21:280:21:35

and company has to do to move their

goods across the border and if

0:21:350:21:39

somebody wants to provide a service

on the other side of the border,

0:21:390:21:41

what they have to do to be able to

cross it. It's in those barriers,

0:21:410:21:46

those obstacles and difficulties

that a hard border is felt.

Not just

0:21:460:21:50

in terms of infrastructure. Alex,

listening to that, Katie is an

0:21:500:21:55

expert. She says the two proposals

being put forward by the Prime

0:21:550:22:00

Minister are not workable solutions.

The Prime Minister has said it is

0:22:000:22:05

incumbent on the government working

with the Irish government and the EU

0:22:050:22:08

to come up with better ideas. What

are those better ideas?

With all due

0:22:080:22:14

respect to Katy, I disagree. The

solution put forward by the Prime

0:22:140:22:19

Minister is workable.

Which one?

A

technological solution which would

0:22:190:22:23

enable relatively free flow of trade

across the border with a large

0:22:230:22:30

exemption for small traders but with

automatic... Electronic tracking for

0:22:300:22:37

large traders. The reason I say I

think this is workable is because

0:22:370:22:39

not only does it sound sensible but

in November last year, the European

0:22:390:22:46

Parliament's policy Department of

citizens rights and constitutional

0:22:460:22:48

affairs published a paper called

Smart border 2.0 where they proposed

0:22:480:22:53

exactly this. They looked at a range

of border arrangements including

0:22:530:22:57

Canada and the US who are not in a

customs union but where technology

0:22:570:23:02

has enabled exactly this sort of

relationship across the border. The

0:23:020:23:06

fact that there are people in Europe

saying this is possible and we are

0:23:060:23:09

saying it is possible in the UK

means this may be one way of getting

0:23:090:23:13

to the end point we all want to get

to, which is to have a borderless

0:23:130:23:17

situation with Ireland. We want

that, the EU wants that and the

0:23:170:23:23

Irish comment once that.

What do you

say to that?

I was commissioned with

0:23:230:23:27

David Fenimore to write a report for

the same committee, sat beside the

0:23:270:23:32

person who presented the report to

the European Parliament that it was

0:23:320:23:34

clear that the Smart border

technology does not avert the need

0:23:340:23:36

for properly enforcing a customs

border. If you are saying that 80%

0:23:360:23:44

of traders will not have to... Not

face any restrictions crossing the

0:23:440:23:47

border, you are essentially saying

you are not enacting a customs

0:23:470:23:50

border. This is the problem from the

EU's point of view. How do they know

0:23:500:23:55

that goods coming in are of a lower

standards, according to trade steals

0:23:550:23:59

the UK do, will not come into the EU

via Northern Ireland? This is a

0:23:590:24:04

serious point. In his report, and

presentation, he was clear that he

0:24:040:24:09

is not clear about the

particularities of the Irish case.

0:24:090:24:12

There is a very clear need for

distinctive arrangements in relation

0:24:120:24:16

to Ireland and Northern Ireland. It

was good to see Theresa May

0:24:160:24:20

reiterating again on Friday that the

1998 agreement has to be central to

0:24:200:24:24

what ever is put forward for Ireland

and Northern Ireland in the future.

0:24:240:24:31

Mary, you said you don't think

Labour's policy as it stands will

0:24:310:24:34

solve the Irish border issue either,

we would have to stay in a single

0:24:340:24:39

market as well. But there is no sign

that Jeremy Corbyn will sign up to

0:24:390:24:42

that.

I think Jeremy Hunt 's moved

onto the customs union and we could

0:24:420:24:47

see further movement -- Jeromy has

0:24:470:24:52

on to. We could see that become

clearer during the negotiation

0:24:520:24:56

phase. Can I go back to what Katy

has been saying, this is magical

0:24:560:25:00

thinking from the Prime Minister.

Katy analogy about the house is

0:25:000:25:07

important because the Prime Minister

can't say what she wants because to

0:25:070:25:10

set out what she wants would

separate the two wings of her party

0:25:100:25:15

in an irrevocable split. She focuses

on the means but not the what. She

0:25:150:25:21

talks by technological solutions,

can somebody help us with this but

0:25:210:25:24

she does not say what she actually

wants. I'm afraid it's another

0:25:240:25:28

classic example of fudge.

She has

and what she wants, and invisible

0:25:280:25:33

border, technological solutions --

has said what she wants. To ease

0:25:330:25:37

that across the border and she

doesn't want to break up the

0:25:370:25:39

integrity of the UK rightly or

wrongly... That is why it cannot be

0:25:390:25:44

down the Irish Sea.

We all want

that.

Having a customs border. What

0:25:440:25:50

do you mean?

She cannot say how she

will stop Northern Ireland becoming

0:25:500:25:56

an entry point for goods of a lower

standard and quality. Until she can

0:25:560:26:01

do that, all the talk of

technological solutions is for the

0:26:010:26:05

birds, fantasies. She meets talk

about what the customs arrangements

0:26:050:26:08

will be and what they will cover

before we get into cameras and

0:26:080:26:11

border checks -- she needs to talk

about.

We will find out the EU's

0:26:110:26:15

response later this week.

0:26:150:26:16

Now it's time for our daily quiz.

0:26:160:26:18

For World Book Day last week,

politicians were asked

0:26:180:26:20

to name their favourite book

as a child - with Chancellor

0:26:200:26:23

Philip Hammond choosing

The Cat In The Hat by Dr Seuss.

0:26:230:26:25

But, according to The Times,

that's apparently only

0:26:250:26:27

after he was urged by Downing Street

officials to change

0:26:270:26:30

from his first choice.

0:26:300:26:33

The mind boggles.

0:26:330:26:34

Was that...

0:26:340:26:35

A - The Intelligent Investor

by Benjamin Graham?

0:26:350:26:37

B - Nineteen Eighty Four

by George Orwell?

0:26:370:26:39

C - How to Win Friends And Influence

People by Dale Carnegie?

0:26:390:26:41

C - How to Win Friends And Influence

People by Dale Carnegie?

0:26:410:26:42

Or D - The Chancellors

by Roy Jenkins?

0:26:420:26:44

At the end of the show,

Mary and Alex will give

0:26:440:26:47

us the correct answer.

0:26:470:26:50

And perhaps tell us their favourite

books when they were children.

Going

0:26:500:26:55

one and then two.

0:26:550:26:58

Now, you probably won't remember

much about the substance

0:26:580:27:00

of Theresa May's conference speech

last year, but you probably

0:27:000:27:02

will remember the protestor

handing her a P45 and that

0:27:020:27:05

awful coughing fit.

0:27:050:27:07

But, amid the coughs,

she did promise to put housing

0:27:070:27:09

centre stage of her premiership.

0:27:090:27:11

Well, today, she has been attempting

to do just that, unveiling new plans

0:27:110:27:14

to boost homebuilding.

0:27:140:27:15

Here she is making a cough-free

speech a little earlier.

0:27:150:27:19

The impact of rising prices goes

beyond the simple division

0:27:190:27:21

between housing haves and have-nots.

0:27:210:27:27

This crisis of unaffordability

is also creating a crisis of almost

0:27:270:27:30

literal social immobility.

0:27:300:27:32

Think of the skilled, experienced

worker who is offered a promotion,

0:27:320:27:35

but can't afford to take it up,

because it would mean

0:27:350:27:37

moving to a town or city

where he can't afford to live.

0:27:370:27:43

Think of the talented young woman

from a working-class background

0:27:430:27:45

who can't afford to take

an entry-level professional job,

0:27:450:27:48

because she wouldn't be

able to live nearby.

0:27:480:27:52

It's not so hard to accept that

door-opening internship in London

0:27:520:27:54

if your parents own a large house

in central London.

0:27:540:27:59

It's a much greater challenge

if you share a room with your

0:27:590:28:02

We'll hear from the housing minister

Dominic Raab in a moment,

0:28:030:28:06

but first of all, let's speak

to Hilary Newport from the Campaign

0:28:060:28:09

to Protect Rural England.

0:28:090:28:10

She is the director

of the group's Kent branch.

0:28:100:28:13

Welcome to the programme. Theresa

May has been speaking about a crisis

0:28:150:28:19

in affordability in housing that she

says is creating a crisis of almost

0:28:190:28:23

literally social immobility in the

country. What is wrong with this

0:28:230:28:26

cupboard wanting to build more

houses to address that?

Nothing is

0:28:260:28:29

wrong with that.

-- this government

wanting.

The crisis is of

0:28:290:28:34

affordability rather than

availability. We are keen to see

0:28:340:28:38

proper policies that makes homes

affordable for people genuinely.

0:28:380:28:41

What would you like to genuinely

propose?

We need to think hard about

0:28:410:28:48

returning to social housing because

it's impossible for people to afford

0:28:480:28:50

to get on the property ladder in

London or in the south-east. We need

0:28:500:28:53

to address proper social solutions

that will give people a decent place

0:28:530:28:56

to live.

Does it make it difficult

if there are restrictions being put

0:28:560:29:00

on the government, attempts to put

restrictions on the government as to

0:29:000:29:03

where they can build these hundreds

of thousands new homes they are

0:29:030:29:07

promising?

Certainly. The

modifications to the new planning

0:29:070:29:11

policy framework are suggesting we

need to pack far more homes into the

0:29:110:29:16

overheated Southeast and London.

That is a false hope. Simply

0:29:160:29:20

building more and more houses in

places already overstretched isn't

0:29:200:29:24

going to bring down affordability.

We need a proper social policy that

0:29:240:29:28

helps people.

You know that will be

an accusation levelled out to you of

0:29:280:29:37

Nimbyism. Where would you support a

big house-building programme?

We

0:29:370:29:42

support measures... We talk about

the Northern powerhouse. The

0:29:420:29:45

modification to the national policy

planning framework would see fewer

0:29:450:29:49

homes built in the parts of

north-east and north-west where

0:29:490:29:53

economic growth is desperately

needed.

At the moment lots of the

0:29:530:29:57

jobs are in the south and around the

home Counties. Will you support a

0:29:570:30:01

big house-building programme there?

The sort of affordability you talk

0:30:010:30:05

about.

0:30:050:30:09

We certainly accept that some

greenfield sites have to be handed

0:30:090:30:12

over for housing delivery but we

want proper planning policies that

0:30:120:30:16

allow authorities to direct

development to where it would do the

0:30:160:30:20

most good and the least harm. At the

moment that is very hard.

All will

0:30:200:30:23

just store the process?

I don't

believe it will but it developers

0:30:230:30:28

need to be incentivised to provide

the housing people need.

And you

0:30:280:30:33

reassured that the Government is not

going to tear up the green belt?

It

0:30:330:30:37

is difficult to see how that can

properly be enshrined when you look

0:30:370:30:41

at a district like Sevenoaks which

has historically high housing

0:30:410:30:44

targets and it is almost all green

belt so it would be hard to deliver

0:30:440:30:48

those kinds of target and something

has to give, either the number of

0:30:480:30:53

houses they are being forced to

build all the green belt, I'm

0:30:530:30:57

afraid, and that is simply

impossible to reconcile at the

0:30:570:31:00

moment.

Thank you for joining us.

0:31:000:31:02

Well, we can discuss this

now with the Housing

0:31:020:31:04

minister Dominic Raab.

0:31:040:31:05

Welcome to the programme.

0:31:050:31:06

You heard that this is about

affordability, not availability.

0:31:060:31:10

What do you say to that?

It is about

both but the trouble with the

0:31:100:31:15

Campaign to Protect Rural England is

that social housing is at its

0:31:150:31:18

highest demand in London on the

south-east as well and therefore if

0:31:180:31:21

they don't want us to build there we

are caught with a Catch-22 of their

0:31:210:31:25

own making. But actually, what we

are going to do is give local

0:31:250:31:28

authorities more tools in the box,

that is what the planning and policy

0:31:280:31:32

framework will do, for example to

build up a story or two, mews

0:31:320:31:37

houses, terraced streets, and we're

going to create more freedom for

0:31:370:31:41

them. But neither council level zero

local government level can we dubbed

0:31:410:31:45

the challenge to build more homes

for the future.

Theresa May return

0:31:450:31:47

to her theme with the Brexit speech

on Friday about the just about

0:31:470:31:52

managing and the implication of the

burning injustices that she wants to

0:31:520:31:55

do something about. Why has it taken

so long to get to grips with this

0:31:550:31:59

issue?

It has come together because

you have central government, local

0:31:590:32:02

authorities and the whole business

community. Every one of those has a

0:32:020:32:06

role to play. But if you look at

homeownership, it declined 2003 two

0:32:060:32:13

2014, stabilised since. If you look

at the last year, we got new homes

0:32:130:32:16

delivered up to 217,000, the highest

level in all but one of the last

0:32:160:32:23

years.

From a very, very low bar.

You're absolutely right. We have to

0:32:230:32:29

do more. We have the homes of

research fund...

But why haven't you

0:32:290:32:33

brought more affordable homes in the

last two years? If Theresa May keeps

0:32:330:32:37

talking about people who are

struggling and that just about

0:32:370:32:40

managing, why has there been

absolutely no progress in terms of

0:32:400:32:43

building more affordable homes?

For

example if you look at the last

0:32:430:32:47

seven years we have seen more

affordable homes delivered than the

0:32:470:32:50

previous seven years.

Let's look at

the figures. But affordable homes in

0:32:500:32:57

2009-10 was 58,290 and it has fallen

to 41,530, so that is a drop.

But if

0:32:570:33:04

you're looking over a longer term...

But I'm not.

I'm suggesting you

0:33:040:33:09

should.

Well, you would suggest that

but the figures have come down. They

0:33:090:33:16

have come down to 41,530.

I totally

accept we have to do more but

0:33:160:33:22

frankly, whether you're talking

about homes overall or affordable

0:33:220:33:25

homes, the key thing is to build up

supply and have more homes coming

0:33:250:33:28

onto the market, whether it is for

ownership, co-ownership or rent or

0:33:280:33:33

social rent and that is why planning

reform is one very important piece

0:33:330:33:36

of a jigsaw.

You have talked about

affordable homes and say overall

0:33:360:33:41

there have been more homes built.

What about council homes? If we're

0:33:410:33:44

talking about affordability and you

say that is critical, hammy council

0:33:440:33:47

homes have been built in the last

year?

I'm not sure what the figure

0:33:470:33:51

would be for the year alone because

I tend to look at affordable homes

0:33:510:33:54

in the Number Ten.

New homes for

social rent in 2016-17 worth 5380.

0:33:540:34:03

In 2009-10 they were 33,490. But is

a drop of over 80%.

We have to do

0:34:030:34:11

better.

Better? That is...

Let me

give you the answer. But as one of

0:34:110:34:16

the reasons why we have raised the

borrowing cut by £1 billion for

0:34:160:34:19

local authorities so yes, we can

build homes through the local

0:34:190:34:22

authorities. There is no one single

thing that is going to do this. It

0:34:220:34:26

is about pressure on local

authorities, a squeeze on developers

0:34:260:34:29

and looking at the national planning

framework and making sure the tools

0:34:290:34:32

are there for developers of

authorities to do the job.

But that

0:34:320:34:36

is not the answer. There has been no

action. There has been lots of words

0:34:360:34:40

and rhetoric from Theresa May but

when we try and match that rhetoric

0:34:400:34:44

with action, you see more can be

done. Absolutely, more can be done

0:34:440:34:47

but at the moment the direction of

travel has been in the totally wrong

0:34:470:34:51

direction.

I don't think that is

fair.

On new homes for social rent,

0:34:510:34:57

we're talking about people who are

just about managing...

We have the

0:34:570:35:00

highest number of first-time buyers

since the financial crash, a really

0:35:000:35:04

important statistic.

Is that the

just about managing, the people just

0:35:040:35:10

scraping by?

These are people who

weren't getting on the housing

0:35:100:35:12

ladder before but we have got to do

more. Hell to buy is being

0:35:120:35:17

criticised but has helped a lot of

the people who wouldn't have a

0:35:170:35:19

chance to get on the housing ladder,

release the public sector land, and

0:35:190:35:23

cutting stamp duty for important

buyers is a thing to do. We have

0:35:230:35:28

about half a dozen levers to get

home building up about 30% harder.

0:35:280:35:33

Planning reform today will deliver

that.

Would you agree that a burning

0:35:330:35:38

injustices and 86% drop in the

number of affordable homes that have

0:35:380:35:43

been built?

Look, I don't embarrass

anyone statistic that does it

0:35:430:35:46

justice but if you are making the

point that we need to build not just

0:35:460:35:49

more homes but more affordable homes

for the key workers, the nurses,

0:35:490:35:54

those in the private sector, I

absolutely agree. That is why we are

0:35:540:35:58

straining to do more and the

planning reforms, I know they are

0:35:580:36:01

very technical and people don't like

0:36:010:36:12

to get into the detail of it but we

are giving local authorities greater

0:36:160:36:19

tools to do the job and putting a

bit more of a squeeze on them and

0:36:190:36:22

saying, we can't dock this any more.

What is the squeeze? Would you put

0:36:220:36:25

sanctions on councils who don't meet

targets?

What they planning policy

0:36:250:36:27

changes today set out is putting the

squeeze on the authorities who,

0:36:270:36:30

let's put it like this, abdicate

their responsibility to either

0:36:300:36:32

provide the housing supply or get

the homes built when it is very

0:36:320:36:34

clear what the homes their community

need are and, at the same time, it

0:36:340:36:37

is not all one-way traffic. We are

putting £5 billion through the homes

0:36:370:36:41

infrastructure funds in production

-- providing the schools, roads, so

0:36:410:36:46

that wouldn't just build homes but

provide strong communities.

You have

0:36:460:36:51

set out proposals and I have put to

use stark figures that don't show

0:36:510:36:54

there has been improvement on

affordable homes and homes for

0:36:540:36:58

social rent but even in the

conference speech last year by

0:36:580:37:01

Theresa May, which was going to be

billed as a sort of housing

0:37:010:37:05

revolution, the price there was only

5000 more homes, affordable homes

0:37:050:37:09

and homes for social rent every year

for five years. Is that enough?

I

0:37:090:37:15

think our target is to get up to

300,000 new homes...

At his new

0:37:150:37:20

homes, I am talking about affordable

homes for social rented top

I think

0:37:200:37:24

dividing a dog is not right.

Government is saying they are the

0:37:240:37:28

people you want to help.

But if you

get up those new homes delivered to

0:37:280:37:34

the figure of 300,000 which is

long-term plan, nobody said it would

0:37:340:37:38

happen overnight, you bring the

affordability down for the nurse,

0:37:380:37:41

the teacher, the family working

extra shifts to try and settle down

0:37:410:37:44

and get their foot on the housing

ladder.

Heather Wheeler, the new

0:37:440:37:48

minister for homelessness, has said

she will resign if the figure for

0:37:480:37:53

the number of rough sleepers gets

worse. Will you give the same

0:37:530:37:55

assurance of targets are met?

Look,

I'm putting my heart and soul into

0:37:550:38:01

getting the new homes delivered. I'm

not going to make this all about my

0:38:010:38:04

reputation or what I'm doing but

what I can tell you is that on every

0:38:040:38:09

one of those levers, Sajid Javid,

the Secretary of State, myself and

0:38:090:38:14

the Prime Minister will be yanking

those levers harder to get those

0:38:140:38:17

homes built and that is not just the

way we provide the homes Britain

0:38:170:38:20

needs but make them more affordable

for precisely the people you are

0:38:200:38:23

talking about.

But that is a clear

assurance missed you minister and

0:38:230:38:28

she is putting her reputation on the

line on an issue that your

0:38:280:38:30

government has said is going to be

absolutely critical. Theresa May

0:38:300:38:34

said it is going to be at the

forefront at centre stage. You are

0:38:340:38:37

on the front line of the housing

minister.

The Prime Minister has

0:38:370:38:41

already made clear that I will be

for the high jump unless... So don't

0:38:410:38:45

worry about what I say. The fact we

have Heather Wheeler, and extra

0:38:450:38:49

housing minister, dealing with this

crucial issue of rough sleeping,

0:38:490:38:54

shows that commitment.

And it shows

that commitment because the number

0:38:540:38:57

of rough sleepers has tripled

between 2010 and 2017 from 1068 up

0:38:570:39:05

to 4060. It is shameful.

We have to

do much better. I have volunteered

0:39:050:39:11

at a housing charity in new because

a lot of people who find themselves

0:39:110:39:14

that awful position of the lack of a

roof over their head is the symptom

0:39:140:39:18

not the course. We have got to do

better.

The Tory councillor who

0:39:180:39:24

chairs the Local Government

Association, Gary Porta, said on

0:39:240:39:27

Twitter, the answer is not another

planning law shake-up but to let

0:39:270:39:32

councils build homes themselves. Do

you agree with him?

I can fully

0:39:320:39:36

signed up to the package that has

been announced today and one of the

0:39:360:39:38

things that comes up time and time

again, from young constituent of

0:39:380:39:41

mine out in Essex, their parents and

grandparents want to see more

0:39:410:39:46

housing made available and they want

to see it put up in a sustainable

0:39:460:39:50

way and it is something that has

been close to my heart for a while

0:39:500:39:53

and I was very pleased to hear sad

to Javad talking about it over the

0:39:530:39:57

weekend, the creation of new towns

and new villages, which enables

0:39:570:40:02

government to put the infrastructure

in, but schools in, but the roads

0:40:020:40:06

in, make sure the clinics are there.

That is a very positive vision for

0:40:060:40:11

what has and should be.

Can you sign

up to a too?

What we have is a

0:40:110:40:17

global crisis, I homelessness

crisis...

I have done that with

0:40:170:40:20

Dominic Raab but can you sign up to

the proposals announced today and

0:40:200:40:24

the commitment that is being made to

building more homes?

My question is,

0:40:240:40:29

where is the underpinning investment

coming from? What my concern is

0:40:290:40:33

about changes that this government

has made, for example on zero carbon

0:40:330:40:37

homes, these homes are going to be

around for the next 70 two 100 years

0:40:370:40:42

and they're not being put before

climate changed. Where is the work

0:40:420:40:47

on sustainable drainage? We have

homes that are without water because

0:40:470:40:51

of the leaks. We have to look at

this and the Government has got rid

0:40:510:40:54

of the decontamination grants to

tear whoa Vera Banfield cites.

Do

0:40:540:40:59

you support the pledge to build new

homes? It has gone up to a level

0:40:590:41:04

that was last reached in 2007-08.

Everybody wants to get home

0:41:040:41:11

ownership up and homelessness down.

The question is, who is the party

0:41:110:41:16

that you Chris Thomas, the Tories

with their record broken promises on

0:41:160:41:18

this?

We haven't got time to do

Labour's record but it wasn't very

0:41:180:41:23

good either.

I didn't interrupt you.

We've got more houses in every year

0:41:230:41:32

of a Labour government than any of

the first five years of your

0:41:320:41:35

government and you are only now

coming to this and there is a

0:41:350:41:38

collapse in the houses being built

for social rented housing. Councils

0:41:380:41:43

are spending £1 billion a year in

accommodation for homeless families.

0:41:430:41:47

You had better have a response that

before I let you go. What do you say

0:41:470:41:51

in response?

You have a shadow

Labour minister who says that

0:41:510:42:04

housing is important under Labour

leader who says all property is

0:42:040:42:06

theft. They voted against our stamp

duty cut for first-time buyers but

0:42:060:42:09

friendly, nobody gives a monkey's

what the tit-for-tat between Mary

0:42:090:42:11

and I years. Crucially, we all agree

on getting the affordability down

0:42:110:42:13

for key workers and the people on

low and middle incomes.

Dominic

0:42:130:42:15

Raab, thank you.

0:42:150:42:16

Italians have been voting

in a general election

0:42:160:42:18

over the weekend and

the results overnight

0:42:180:42:20

have delivered a hung

parliament and record backing

0:42:200:42:21

to anti-establishment

and far-right groups.

0:42:210:42:23

Our reporter, Gavin Lee,

joins us live from Rome.

0:42:230:42:29

Brings us up to date.

A very wet in

Rome today. A cloudy sky and a

0:42:290:42:36

cloudy future because we have a hung

parliament. There are different

0:42:360:42:41

people claiming victory. I think

right now the single party that has

0:42:410:42:45

the momentum, it seems, is the

5-star Movement, apropos of nothing

0:42:450:42:51

five years ago, a comedian with very

low EU rhetoric wanted a referendum

0:42:510:42:57

on the euro. To doubling of scale

that backed it up they have a hard

0:42:570:43:02

call on the EU, 31-year-old sharps

spoken, sharp suited man, made a

0:43:020:43:07

speech if you minutes ago in which

he spoke about a new start for Italy

0:43:070:43:12

and said he was delighted beyond

words and open to works were bottles

0:43:120:43:16

the move parties. They are the

single biggest party, as far as the

0:43:160:43:24

vote is... It is almost finished

voting now. The single biggest party

0:43:240:43:29

in Italy. The bigger coalition is

the centre-right, Silvio Berlusconi

0:43:290:43:33

back from the dead. Is a

centre-right coalition collectively

0:43:330:43:37

has more votes but that is because

of the hard right anti-immigration

0:43:370:43:44

party, the league, and its leader

today saying that he thanks John

0:43:440:43:49

Claude Younger of the European Union

for saying more bad things about his

0:43:490:43:52

party because it has helped them

getting votes. So now they have to

0:43:520:43:56

work at the business of who is going

to work with who, how will work, a

0:43:560:44:00

quick word for the people who used

to be the government building behind

0:44:000:44:03

me... A lot of rain just fell, as

you see! They are sodden too at the

0:44:030:44:10

moment because they are third,

walking wounded right now. We are

0:44:100:44:16

told they are not really getting

involved in coalition talks unless

0:44:160:44:19

they are needed.

Thank goodness you

had an umbrella! Thank you for

0:44:190:44:21

joining us.

0:44:210:44:25

Here in the studio is Matthew

Goodwin, from the Royal Institute

0:44:250:44:28

of International Affairs,

Chatham House.

0:44:280:44:31

Why aren't these results so

extraordinary?

You might say this is

0:44:310:44:35

just classic Italian politics,

Berlusconi is back, populists

0:44:350:44:38

running right that this tells us

much about where Europe is, centre

0:44:380:44:43

left with another disastrous

election. Following real losses for

0:44:430:44:47

social Democrats in Germany, the

Netherlands, France. On the other

0:44:470:44:51

hand, a sharp turn to the right with

Lega effectively replacing

0:44:510:44:58

Berlusconi as the number-1 party on

the right. A prolonged negotiation

0:44:580:45:03

period and fragmentation in Italy

like we saw after the elections in

0:45:030:45:06

the Netherlands and in Germany where

it took five months to sign the

0:45:060:45:10

grand coalition.

What about the rise

of the Five Star Movement and their

0:45:100:45:15

dominance?

They had a good election

come up to their vote from the last

0:45:150:45:18

election. There are interesting,

they were only founded a few years

0:45:180:45:20

ago by a comedian.

Beppe Grillo.

It

is ludicrous to say this is the

0:45:200:45:26

status quo and this is OK for

Europe, this is a shock. For a party

0:45:260:45:30

to take over 30% from the vote of

nowhere and to draw votes from young

0:45:300:45:36

people, this is interesting. In the

south of Italy, which was hit by the

0:45:360:45:40

refugee crisis and economic

stagnation, Five Star Movement are

0:45:400:45:43

doing well. April we won't get into

coalition comet will be a right wing

0:45:430:45:48

coalition. -- we don't think.

Their

leader won't become Prime Minister?

0:45:480:45:52

I don't think Luigi Di Maio will but

this is awkward that a Populist

0:45:520:45:58

party finished in first place, they

have symbolically won this election,

0:45:580:46:01

even if it might not enter into

coalition.

You could argue a manual

0:46:010:46:05

Macron's party was a new party of

the centre and it march to victory

0:46:050:46:10

in elections for the presidency and

in government -- that Emmanuel

0:46:100:46:14

Macron.

It came out of nowhere

almost within a year, set up a party

0:46:140:46:18

and took over the French...

He is

neither the far right nor the left.

0:46:180:46:24

Use classic mainstream. Stepped

outside of the traditional party

0:46:240:46:28

structures and won the Austrian

elections. In Europe, there is

0:46:280:46:32

historic change that we have not

seen before. The 80s and 90s, we

0:46:320:46:35

would not talk about things like

this.

We haven't reached a peak

0:46:350:46:39

populism in that case?

I have a

particular line, we are much closer

0:46:390:46:44

to the beginning of a new period of

volatility than the end. We have

0:46:440:46:50

underestimated the appeal and

potency of what these parties are

0:46:500:46:55

talking about. Antiestablishment but

also anchored in specific issues

0:46:550:46:57

like immigration and the refugee

crisis.

Is Italy in a special

0:46:570:47:03

situation? It has a history of

coalition governments, they have

0:47:030:47:06

never been that stable in the

post-war period. But because of the

0:47:060:47:11

migration issue which has hit Italy

very hard. Economically, they have

0:47:110:47:16

stagnated for ever.

The refugee

crisis hit everybody pretty hard.

0:47:160:47:19

They were one of the front lines.

After it effectively went through

0:47:190:47:23

central and eastern Europe and

Austria attention turned to Italy

0:47:230:47:28

when the Balkan route closed down.

The identity issue in Europe is

0:47:280:47:32

cutting directly across the old

traditional electorates. We have

0:47:320:47:38

seen it in Brexit. 140 Labour MPs

who represent pro Leave seats, this

0:47:380:47:42

will be difficult for the mainstream

but it is difficult for social

0:47:420:47:45

Democrats.

Do you accept that social

Democratic parties and centre-left

0:47:450:47:49

parties across Europe are having a

difficult time?

I do and they are

0:47:490:47:54

having that difficult time in the

United States. What is this in

0:47:540:47:58

response to? I think it's in

response to eight years of austerity

0:47:580:48:02

and almost ten years of posterity

where young people haven't been able

0:48:020:48:05

to get on the housing ladder, and in

Italy there is a rigid employment

0:48:050:48:10

structures, it is done on the basis

of recommendations, who you know. It

0:48:100:48:14

doesn't matter if you have a music

degree.

Why are they not seeing the

0:48:140:48:18

left as an answer?

They have been in

Matteo Renzi. -- in power with. They

0:48:180:48:26

want quick, easy solutions to

difficult and complex problems. The

0:48:260:48:30

traditional parties say it is

difficult but give me five years and

0:48:300:48:33

I will do my best, people's patience

is running thin and people think,

0:48:330:48:39

five years here, five years there

and I am then old. At my age, my

0:48:390:48:44

parents had a house and a car and a

stable job and a family and I can't

0:48:440:48:49

do any of those.

At the politics of

austerity to blame?

I am impressed

0:48:490:48:52

by Mary's Italian accent. I don't

think they are. And not in Italy.

0:48:520:48:57

What is happening in Italy is that

in the South, in the FT today, 55%

0:48:570:49:04

of under 25-year-olds are

unemployed. 600,000 people have

0:49:040:49:09

cross the Mediterranean.

There are

populists across Europe.

In Italy,

0:49:090:49:15

these are extraordinarily profound

events. We are starting to see this

0:49:150:49:18

played out. When I was working in

Italy 30 years ago, lived in Rome

0:49:180:49:23

for a year there were migrants

crossing the Mediterranean then. We

0:49:230:49:28

had Romani migrants living in a camp

next to where I lived. We had people

0:49:280:49:33

in the Central Station Square from

Eritrea, Ethiopia, as it was then.

0:49:330:49:39

Italy has long had migration, long

been on the front line of the

0:49:390:49:43

migration issue. But what happened

now is that there has been a

0:49:430:49:47

stagnation, rise in the cost of

living and a feeling that the old

0:49:470:49:51

traditional parties have not managed

to do that. Italy has been very

0:49:510:49:55

stable. It had right wing

governments from basically post-war

0:49:550:49:59

right until the fall of the Berlin

Wall.

I am not sure it has been

0:49:590:50:02

stable! LAUGHTER

That could be a description of

0:50:020:50:06

stability. Have we got time to talk

about Germany briefly? The ADL had a

0:50:060:50:15

strong showing for the first time at

this coalition has now been done,

0:50:150:50:19

the deal. Between the SPD, the

left-wing party and the CDU. How big

0:50:190:50:24

a problem there is the rise of the

AFD?

Unprecedented political change.

0:50:240:50:29

They had its worst result since

1933. They fell to 15% in the polls,

0:50:290:50:35

if replicated at an election would

be the worst result since the 1880s.

0:50:350:50:39

Populism was never supposed to

flourish because of the legacy of...

0:50:390:50:44

The constitution was supposed to

stop it.

It is also a country that

0:50:440:50:49

has historically low unemployment

and stable growing economy, as has

0:50:490:50:52

the Austrians, the Dutch, the Swiss.

Still, national populists have done

0:50:520:50:57

well because voters do not perceive

that Europe is responding to the

0:50:570:51:03

refugee issue in the right way. You

cannot compare immigration in the

0:51:030:51:06

80s and 90s to what Europe has seen

over the last two years, this is

0:51:060:51:11

unprecedented demographic change.

Thank you.

0:51:110:51:13

There has been plenty of debate over

the years with regards to altering

0:51:130:51:16

the structure of the House of Lords.

0:51:160:51:17

Should it be updated to make

it more representative

0:51:170:51:20

or maintain its current workings?

0:51:200:51:21

Journalist and author

Richard Askwith says we should

0:51:210:51:23

abolish the House of Lords

and replace it with a citizens'

0:51:230:51:25

chamber of 400 people.

0:51:250:51:26

Here's his Soapbox.

0:51:260:51:34

Five weeks ago, after years

of ducking the issue,

0:51:450:51:48

MPs finally voted to repair

the crumbling building they work in.

0:51:480:51:52

Sadly, they're still in denial

about a bigger problem.

0:51:520:51:55

Parliament itself needs an overhaul.

0:51:550:51:59

What if we tried to fix this?

0:51:590:52:02

What would we do, given

the chance, to remake

0:52:020:52:04

Parliament for today's world?

0:52:040:52:08

Here's my suggestion.

0:52:080:52:09

We expel the current occupants

of the House of Lords

0:52:090:52:11

and we give their chamber

to the people.

0:52:110:52:14

I'm not talking about

direct democracy.

0:52:150:52:16

Obviously, we can't put

everything to a referendum.

0:52:160:52:21

What I'm proposing is a people's

chamber that is a small,

0:52:210:52:22

representative sample

of the population as a whole with,

0:52:220:52:25

say, 400 members, conscripted

at random from the electoral roll,

0:52:250:52:27

just as jurors are.

0:52:270:52:33

Imagine it - everyone who votes

is eligible for selection by law

0:52:330:52:36

to serve in the chamber

for a fixed term.

0:52:360:52:39

Service is compulsory,

well-paid and prestigious.

0:52:390:52:43

The people's peers can wear ermine

and use titles if they want.

0:52:430:52:47

The financial rewards are comparable

to a decent sized lottery win.

0:52:470:52:52

The chamber's functions stay

the same - scrutiny, revision,

0:52:520:52:54

endorsement, occasional delay.

0:52:540:52:57

It would all take

a bit of organising.

0:52:570:52:59

So did National Service

and we managed that.

0:52:590:53:02

Some people might

resent the call up.

0:53:020:53:04

If so, they could apply

for exemption, but the process

0:53:040:53:07

would be public so, with a bit

of luck, most people would prefer

0:53:070:53:10

to do their civic duty than risk

the stigma of dodging it.

0:53:100:53:14

The overall cost might be higher

than the current House of Lords

0:53:140:53:17

but it would be worth it.

0:53:170:53:18

The prize would be a representative

second chamber whose legitimacy

0:53:180:53:21

was beyond question -

just as democratic as the House

0:53:210:53:24

of Commons but in a different way.

0:53:240:53:30

We're used to thinking of Lords

reform as a marginal issue.

0:53:300:53:33

We need to wake up.

0:53:330:53:34

There is a rising tide of populism

in western politics,

0:53:340:53:37

a clamour for direct democracy,

that poses a real threat

0:53:370:53:39

to representative democracy.

0:53:390:53:42

Parliament needs defending,

but how do we defend the upper

0:53:420:53:45

chamber that we have now?

0:53:450:53:49

It's folly to ignore populism,

it's folly to yield to it.

0:53:490:53:52

A people's chamber offers a radical

but viable alternative,

0:53:520:53:54

channelling the public's hunger

for more say in how they're

0:53:540:53:56

governed, yet boosting

the legitimacy of Parliament.

0:53:560:54:00

Fantasy?

0:54:000:54:02

Perhaps.

0:54:020:54:03

But it's more realistic

than thinking we can

0:54:030:54:04

carry on as we are.

0:54:040:54:11

And Richard Askwith joins me now.

0:54:110:54:14

It is a fantasy, really, isn't it? A

lovely idea, people's chamber but

0:54:160:54:21

there's no chance it would ever come

to fruition.

Who knows. We have

0:54:210:54:26

citizen's assemblies that have

worked very successfully in Iceland,

0:54:260:54:32

and Ireland. It is not a new idea.

Selecting people at random is, from

0:54:320:54:36

ancient Athens and on with it

worked.

0:54:360:54:41

You said it is unlikely but if

you're looking at it from inside

0:54:410:54:44

Westminster that is true. From

outside Westminster it is slightly

0:54:440:54:47

different. We have this widespread

feeling among a lot of people that

0:54:470:54:50

Parliament may be doesn't speak for

everyone, just the establishment.

0:54:500:54:55

That a big problem and danger for

MPs. Respect for MPs and trust in

0:54:550:54:59

MPs is dangerously and probably all

fairly low at the moment. I don't

0:54:590:55:03

think you can necessarily just say

we don't need to do anything about

0:55:030:55:06

it.

It may be that we need to do

something about it. Various attempts

0:55:060:55:12

have been tried, as you know.

Parliament hasn't got very far with

0:55:120:55:15

reforming the House of Lords. But

your comparison to jury service, how

0:55:150:55:18

do you think it compares in that

same way? You are talking about

0:55:180:55:21

people sitting in a chamber for 4-5

years.

We need to have some decent

0:55:210:55:27

financial rewards otherwise some

people might resent it.

0:55:270:55:31

As I said, we managed National

Service. You can conscript people.

0:55:310:55:35

The great thing about jury service,

no one questions its legitimacy. If

0:55:350:55:40

you find yourself in front of God,

you don't say this system is rigged,

0:55:400:55:44

you say this is transparently fair

-- in front of court.

Would it be

0:55:440:55:50

more legitimate, Mary, do have a

people's Parliament in that sense,

0:55:500:55:54

people chosen at random in the way

they are selected for jury service?

0:55:540:55:58

As opposed to unelected Lords and

ladies.

I don't want to see

0:55:580:56:03

unelected Lords and ladies. We got

rid of a substantial number of

0:56:030:56:06

hereditary peers, the last Labour

government. It has stagnated. We

0:56:060:56:11

have almost 800 peers and the Prime

Minister seems intent of putting

0:56:110:56:14

more in and getting rid of the

number of MPs which is backward

0:56:140:56:22

steps. The jury service is a

two-week commitment in your own town

0:56:220:56:25

at National Service is a one-year

commitment at the start of your

0:56:250:56:27

career. Asking people to leave their

families, their homes and their

0:56:270:56:29

cities to come down to Westminster

for a four or five year term is

0:56:290:56:32

problematic. We have introduced

people's peers, they can put

0:56:320:56:38

themselves forward if they want to.

They tend to be people who are at

0:56:380:56:41

its stage, late stage career. We

have an issue about who comes in,

0:56:410:56:47

who is represented. But I'm not sure

that this is the answer.

Are there

0:56:470:56:51

any elements of this idea that you

would take on board?

I have read

0:56:510:56:56

Richard's book. It's not as crazy as

it sounds.

Well, I didn't say it was

0:56:560:57:01

crazy, just all likely! LAUGHTER

I think there are a number of issues

0:57:010:57:06

with it.

-- just unlikely.

It would

be expensive and Richard has

0:57:060:57:10

acknowledged that. Lottery salaries

to get people on board.

What sort of

0:57:100:57:17

lottery!

Mary is looking more

interested in this.

0:57:170:57:24

One of the things that has impressed

me about the House of Lords of I

0:57:240:57:28

became an MP last year, the quality

of expertise. Sir George Young, Lord

0:57:280:57:32

Young, said to me in a meeting of

new MPs he said, when you are a

0:57:320:57:37

minister in the Commons you think,

with the civil service supports you

0:57:370:57:40

are probably the best informed

person in the room. When you go to

0:57:400:57:43

the doors, you have five former

secretaries of State, former head of

0:57:430:57:47

the civil service, people who have

run businesses, charities. -- go to

0:57:470:57:51

the Lords. You have real knowledge.

That level of scrutiny is so

0:57:510:57:55

important to the effective running

of government. In the book you say

0:57:550:57:59

you could give people training but I

think a few months of training

0:57:590:58:04

versus a lifetime of experience just

doesn't add up.

Thank you for coming

0:58:040:58:07

in.

0:58:070:58:08

There's just time before we go

to find out the answer to our quiz.

0:58:080:58:12

The question was what book -

according to the Times -

0:58:120:58:14

did Philip Hammond originally pick

as his favourite childhood read

0:58:140:58:17

before Downing Street officials

advised him to reconsider?

0:58:170:58:19

Was that...

0:58:190:58:20

A - The Intelligent Investor

by Benjamin Graham?

0:58:200:58:21

A - The Intelligent Investor

by Benjamin Graham?

0:58:210:58:22

B - Nineteen Eighty Four

by George Orwell?

0:58:220:58:24

C - How to Win Friends And Influence

People by Dale Carnegie?

0:58:240:58:26

Or D - The Chancellors

by Roy Jenkins?

0:58:260:58:28

So, Mary and Alex, what's

the correct answer?

0:58:280:58:30

Nineteen Eighty Four -

according to The Times.

0:58:300:58:32

I

according to The Times.

0:58:320:58:32

I wonder

according to The Times.

0:58:320:58:33

I wonder how

according to The Times.

0:58:330:58:33

I wonder how old

according to The Times.

0:58:330:58:33

I wonder how old he

according to The Times.

0:58:330:58:34

I wonder how old he was

according to The Times.

0:58:340:58:34

I wonder how old he was when

according to The Times.

0:58:340:58:35

I wonder how old he was when he

according to The Times.

0:58:350:58:35

I wonder how old he was when he did

according to The Times.

0:58:350:58:35

I wonder how old he was when he did

read 1984! Your favourite childhood

0:58:350:58:36

books?

I can't think.

Thank you.

Actually I can't think of anything

0:58:360:58:43

off the back of that but I'm glad

Philip Hammond advised and updated

0:58:430:58:46

his book.

0:58:460:58:46

That's all for today.

0:58:460:58:47

Thanks to our guests.

0:58:470:58:51

I'll be here at noon

tomorrow with all the big

0:58:510:58:54

political stories of the day.

0:58:540:58:55

Do join me then.

0:58:550:58:56

Bye-bye.

0:58:560:59:01

Jo Coburn is joined by Labour's Mary Creagh and Alex Burghart from the Conservative Party to discuss the Brexit negotiations and the potential for a new EU-US trade war over the steel industry.


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