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nothing for the temperatures. I Welcome to Dateline London. This | :00:27. | :00:31. | |
week we look at the eurozone crisis. The state of the coalition | :00:32. | :00:37. | |
government, the US pull-out from Iraq, and protests worldwide. | :00:37. | :00:44. | |
Joining me today are Tim Montgomery, Ashish Ray, Mustapha Karkouti, and | :00:44. | :00:50. | |
Catherine Mayer, of Time magazine. Welcome to what used. | :00:50. | :00:57. | |
The eurozone crisis continues with the outside looking in, with the | :00:57. | :01:02. | |
French Prime Minister calling Britain and obstinate kid. The top | :01:02. | :01:06. | |
credit agency is considering downgrading Belgium, Spain, | :01:06. | :01:12. | |
Slovenia, Italy, Ireland and Cyprus. Tim Montgomery, David Cameron | :01:12. | :01:16. | |
seemed to have some success in his own party by using his veto. But | :01:17. | :01:20. | |
what does it mean for a coalition government when the other half does | :01:20. | :01:29. | |
not agree? It was a boost for David Cameron. It was also in the mind of | :01:29. | :01:32. | |
the British people that he had shown strength, and honesty. He | :01:32. | :01:36. | |
said what he was going to do if he did not get agreement, and he did | :01:36. | :01:41. | |
exactly that. That is why he has enjoyed a bonus. The danger for him | :01:41. | :01:46. | |
is what you say, the coalition is not such a happy thing as it was | :01:46. | :01:51. | |
just two weeks ago. My own view is that if Nick Clegg wants a retreat | :01:51. | :01:56. | |
on the veto, he will not get it because of the political bonus that | :01:56. | :02:00. | |
David Cameron has received from exercising it. Where the cost will | :02:00. | :02:04. | |
be is when the Conservatives ask the Liberal Democrats for action on | :02:04. | :02:11. | |
growth, they will find a coalition partner who is less agreeable. | :02:11. | :02:15. | |
Catherine, one of the things Nick Clegg, who is the other half of the | :02:15. | :02:19. | |
coalition, the Deputy Prime Minister, one of the things he said | :02:19. | :02:22. | |
was David Cameron using the veto would mean the United States would | :02:22. | :02:28. | |
think less of the UK, that perhaps we would not have quite a special | :02:28. | :02:33. | |
relationship. Was he right? There is always an idea of the special | :02:33. | :02:36. | |
relationship which I always want to do this with my fingers. It is such | :02:36. | :02:41. | |
a nonsense phrase in so many ways. The idea that Britain was the | :02:41. | :02:44. | |
bridge to the rest of Europe, which was so much difficult to do | :02:44. | :02:47. | |
business with because they did not speak the same language and they | :02:47. | :02:54. | |
were not as close. That notion has been unravelling for years. But if | :02:54. | :02:59. | |
you look at these things the other way around, yes, it is quite clear | :02:59. | :03:03. | |
that in Washington there is consternation about the eurozone, | :03:03. | :03:06. | |
about different people's roles within it. I would say there's a | :03:06. | :03:13. | |
lot more consternation about Germany bringing out what Cameron | :03:13. | :03:19. | |
turned the big bazooka. But did you not find it ironic that the euro | :03:19. | :03:27. | |
zone was told to line its ducks and a row? This was at the. The US | :03:27. | :03:30. | |
government was facing a complete shutdown because they could not | :03:30. | :03:37. | |
agree the Budget. So what you are actually seeing is a vacuum in | :03:37. | :03:43. | |
power, a lack of control in all of these different capitals. I do not | :03:43. | :03:46. | |
think there are many of things to worry about at the moment, but the | :03:46. | :03:51. | |
idea that Britain and America will permanently alter their | :03:51. | :04:01. | |
relationship at the stage where who knows who will be in next year, in | :04:01. | :04:07. | |
the US elections in 20th November 12. Many of these eurozone leaders | :04:07. | :04:13. | |
are facing elections, the coalition is looking a rockier than it was, | :04:13. | :04:18. | |
but if I had to take a bet, I would say that they did Cameron and Nick | :04:18. | :04:22. | |
Clegg will be in power long after some of these other leaders we are | :04:22. | :04:32. | |
:04:32. | :04:32. | ||
talking about. I think to a certain extent it is much ado about nothing. | :04:32. | :04:37. | |
The coalition will remain. The Lib Dems have know where to go, with | :04:37. | :04:43. | |
about 10% to go. They are not in a position to cut loose. Even if they | :04:43. | :04:48. | |
were to leave, it would be very difficult for the rest of | :04:48. | :04:51. | |
Parliament to muster up 55% of support, and thereby defeat the | :04:52. | :04:57. | |
Government on the floor of the Commons. That said, I think it is | :04:57. | :05:04. | |
fairly clear that whatever Cameron did, good, bad, indifferent, has | :05:04. | :05:08. | |
been fairly popular with the British people. I have noticed | :05:08. | :05:11. | |
three opinion polls and the last are the days that have indicated | :05:11. | :05:16. | |
the Conservatives are marginally ahead of Labour. That is a fairly | :05:16. | :05:20. | |
significant indication of how people may be thinking. It is | :05:20. | :05:24. | |
possibly more Middle England than anywhere else, but it is also | :05:24. | :05:29. | |
possibly people thinking more emotionally than with their heads. | :05:29. | :05:36. | |
At the end of the day, the fact is that Cameron has emerged from this | :05:36. | :05:40. | |
decision of refusing to sign up to the treaty as rather more popular | :05:40. | :05:48. | |
with the British people than what he was a week ago. I would like to | :05:48. | :05:53. | |
continue on that. I would also like to say that will we see really is | :05:53. | :06:00. | |
political theatre. This is on all sides. Nick Clegg is trying to | :06:00. | :06:07. | |
satisfy a his ground roots, and his party and all that. David Cameron | :06:07. | :06:17. | |
:06:17. | :06:18. | ||
is trying to address the domestic background, by talking about Europe. | :06:18. | :06:24. | |
So does President Sarkozy. Everyone has got a domestic issue, and they | :06:24. | :06:30. | |
need to satisfy that. There is political theatre. But is that | :06:30. | :06:34. | |
getting in the way of progress? We have heard of some of the credit | :06:34. | :06:37. | |
agencies saying that there is no political solution to this. | :06:37. | :06:42. | |
doubt about that. If you look at the Europe summit, it is a disaster. | :06:42. | :06:51. | |
What they need to focus on, the whole world, by the way, are | :06:51. | :06:57. | |
worried about what is going on in the euro-zone. What they need to | :06:58. | :07:02. | |
focus on his the eurozone problem. No one is talking about that. The | :07:02. | :07:06. | |
whole summit failed to address the issue, and now when you listen to | :07:06. | :07:10. | |
these politicians, whether it is Nick Kavanagh David Clegg or | :07:10. | :07:20. | |
:07:20. | :07:28. | ||
President Sarkozy. This theatre is not deliberate. The country that | :07:28. | :07:37. | |
was the most isolated at the summit was Germany, not the UK, but then | :07:37. | :07:42. | |
David Cameron did what he did, and it unleashed this particular war of | :07:42. | :07:48. | |
words. The one phrase I would take issue with that is much ado about | :07:48. | :07:52. | |
nothing. This is much ado about something absolutely fundamental, | :07:52. | :08:00. | |
and truly terrifying, and I do not think there is any sign of... | :08:00. | :08:03. | |
am not underestimating the seriousness of the crisis. Nothing | :08:03. | :08:09. | |
will change in before a nation that there is at the moment. What would | :08:09. | :08:18. | |
worry Britain is the fact that 10 countries, out of the 27 who are | :08:18. | :08:22. | |
not part of the euro, Britain was the only one who refused to join | :08:22. | :08:26. | |
the new treaty. The isolation of Britain therefore is a worrying | :08:26. | :08:35. | |
factor for the Forum of this. Britain has isolated itself. | :08:35. | :08:45. | |
:08:45. | :08:46. | ||
worrying factor for the Foreign Office. No one went along with | :08:46. | :08:53. | |
Britain. But it is hard to say that at the end of this process that | :08:53. | :08:56. | |
Britain will be isolated. Those who signed up to the treaty did it | :08:56. | :09:02. | |
quickly, and I actually think it is perfectly possible that in a few | :09:02. | :09:05. | |
weeks we will see the treaty as having failed to address the | :09:05. | :09:11. | |
central issue of the euro. Britain's isolation might look like | :09:11. | :09:18. | |
wisdom and foresight to stand away from this. I think you are right up | :09:18. | :09:21. | |
until the point where you talk about what Britain is going to look | :09:21. | :09:30. | |
like. I think everyone is going to come out of this looking bad. The | :09:30. | :09:35. | |
whole thing is a tissue. But never dealt with the whole issue about | :09:35. | :09:41. | |
the role of the European Central Bank, for example. There was | :09:41. | :09:45. | |
nothing substantial there. But it is not as though the deal was | :09:45. | :09:48. | |
inadequate to save the euro, it cannot be said of. Is that your | :09:49. | :09:57. | |
view? It has to. We have seen bad economic data from island in the | :09:57. | :10:00. | |
last 24 hours, and that was supposed to be the country that was | :10:00. | :10:07. | |
coping best with austerity. -- from island. Until the countries have | :10:07. | :10:10. | |
exchange rate flexibility, which is the way that every country has | :10:10. | :10:14. | |
dealt with the crisis, they will not recover. The euro has not dealt | :10:14. | :10:24. | |
with this. Britain will now have observers, we are told, is Britain | :10:24. | :10:29. | |
now impotent within Europe? We have vetoed one thing, and we will be | :10:30. | :10:36. | |
sitting on the outside of another. If you go to a negotiation table, | :10:36. | :10:40. | |
people also know -- or was no at the end of the day you will always | :10:40. | :10:45. | |
be there. Because Britain walked away once, we have now shown that | :10:45. | :10:51. | |
our negotiation tactics matter. In the last few days we have got an | :10:51. | :10:54. | |
agreement on fisheries. That has happened since the veto was | :10:54. | :10:59. | |
exercise. That might have happened anyway. It might, but the key point | :10:59. | :11:03. | |
is that since we exercise that, we have won a major agreement with | :11:03. | :11:07. | |
Europe. I think the exaggeration of the isolation argument has been | :11:07. | :11:17. | |
:11:17. | :11:18. | ||
Provan. -- has been proved. Over the past years, the governments | :11:18. | :11:22. | |
have always have disagreements with Europe. But it did not reach this | :11:22. | :11:30. | |
level. We all know what Cameron wanted, he wanted to protect the | :11:30. | :11:37. | |
city of London and the UK to continue being able to regulate its | :11:37. | :11:47. | |
:11:47. | :11:47. | ||
own city and to stop you up from interfering in that. That is a | :11:47. | :11:54. | |
national issue, and no one heard the debate before the summit, and | :11:54. | :11:58. | |
suddenly we're reaching a point at the end of the summit to the | :11:58. | :12:05. | |
surprise of so many that David Cameron was the only one against | :12:05. | :12:08. | |
the stop I agree that Cameron has come across looking strong to the | :12:08. | :12:16. | |
British public for the moment. people will see this was not a | :12:16. | :12:19. | |
demonstration of strength, it was a demonstration of weakness to his | :12:19. | :12:23. | |
backbenchers, and that every single leader involved in the process | :12:23. | :12:29. | |
looks impotent. This is a year where we look around and do not see | :12:29. | :12:33. | |
anyone who has control of the situation. Do you agree with Tim | :12:33. | :12:38. | |
Montgomery? Will the euro go down? I think he is probably right. | :12:38. | :12:44. | |
Probably by the middle of next year. It is a possibility. It will be | :12:44. | :12:48. | |
catastrophic if it does take place. The European countries, | :12:48. | :12:52. | |
particularly Germany and France will not allow it to happen easily. | :12:52. | :12:58. | |
This is my feeling. But if you look at the figures, what has happened | :12:58. | :13:02. | |
today with the credit rating agencies threatening to downgrade | :13:02. | :13:07. | |
the creditworthiness of six countries, including Italy, and | :13:07. | :13:12. | |
with the other bad news about the euro, it does not look good. I can | :13:12. | :13:18. | |
see that. I still feel that Germany in particular will not allow this | :13:18. | :13:24. | |
to happen easily. It is still possible they may cut adrift one or | :13:24. | :13:31. | |
two countries who are in a position of weakness, and therefore may not | :13:31. | :13:39. | |
be part of the euro or in future. But for that to do so good -- | :13:39. | :13:44. | |
disappear altogether, I am not sure. Let us leave that for the moment. | :13:44. | :13:47. | |
The United States formally ended its involvement in Iraq this week. | :13:47. | :13:57. | |
:13:57. | :13:59. | ||
The troops may be on the way home but what is being left behind? Mr - | :13:59. | :14:04. | |
- Mustapha Karkouti What do you make of this? There will be no | :14:04. | :14:07. | |
writs on the ground for the next few years, but the American | :14:07. | :14:15. | |
influence will remain there in so many forms, no doubt. Financially, | :14:15. | :14:22. | |
economically. Running Iraq after what has happened over the past | :14:22. | :14:28. | |
eight or nine years... Was it a success? It is not really a success, | :14:28. | :14:35. | |
it is a disaster. From the invasion in 2003 up to now. The loss of | :14:35. | :14:41. | |
human life, the loss of finance and all that, you cannot call at a | :14:41. | :14:48. | |
success, and now leaving Iraq with a huge vacuum in the country, being | :14:48. | :14:54. | |
filled by probably other regional areas, like Iran and Turkey, there | :14:54. | :15:04. | |
is a competition between them over the influence in the region itself. | :15:04. | :15:08. | |
Whoever controlled Iraq at the end of the day would certainly | :15:08. | :15:18. | |
:15:18. | :15:20. | ||
An election year next year. Or would you agree with Mustapha | :15:20. | :15:24. | |
Karkouti, a disaster? It was gracefully done to the extent it | :15:24. | :15:30. | |
was possible a withdrawal was absolutely inevitable. I thought | :15:30. | :15:37. | |
the ceremony itself was actually done very moving. The important | :15:37. | :15:44. | |
part was that the tribute was paid to the servicemen and women, which, | :15:44. | :15:49. | |
whatever you think of the conflict, and I think it was a disaster and a | :15:49. | :15:52. | |
bad idea and everything else, you have to pay tribute to the people | :15:52. | :15:59. | |
that served there. What does Obama game in the public? I? He does and | :15:59. | :16:04. | |
lose from it but it is not an election winner. This entire | :16:04. | :16:09. | |
election is going to be fought on the economy. That is a truism in | :16:09. | :16:14. | |
many ways, but at this particular time, the tea party influence, | :16:14. | :16:19. | |
everything else, this is going to be big government versus small | :16:19. | :16:24. | |
government and who you can believe will dig America out of a whole, to | :16:24. | :16:30. | |
the extent that the expensive foreign wars that have uncertain | :16:30. | :16:36. | |
outcomes are even more unpopular than they were, then the more you | :16:36. | :16:42. | |
can find an exit, the better. have always believed it was an | :16:42. | :16:49. | |
unfair, unjustified, illegal war. Illegal invasion of a country. But | :16:49. | :16:55. | |
violated the United Nations Charter. At the end of it, the proof of the | :16:55. | :17:01. | |
pudding will be from here onwards. The Iraq that has been left behind, | :17:01. | :17:05. | |
I am not sure whether it is as stable today as it was before the | :17:05. | :17:11. | |
Americans went in. It has happened at a great cost. It has cost $800 | :17:11. | :17:15. | |
billion to the American Exchequer. It has weakened the United States | :17:15. | :17:23. | |
economy. I have always felt that the better way of tackling the | :17:23. | :17:27. | |
Saddam Hussein problem would have been a peaceful and diplomatic | :17:27. | :17:31. | |
approach through the United Nations. That process was never allowed to | :17:31. | :17:34. | |
be completed and instead a violent approach was taken and I am not | :17:34. | :17:40. | |
sure the solution has been a pound. Tim, given we were coalition | :17:40. | :17:45. | |
partners with the United States in this, what fall-out will be on the | :17:45. | :17:52. | |
UK, looking bat at -- looking back at these various conflicts. We have | :17:52. | :17:55. | |
heard the argument about the justification of the war many times | :17:55. | :18:00. | |
and the key thing, the judgment that needed to be made over recent | :18:00. | :18:04. | |
years, particularly the decisions that President Obama has made, we | :18:04. | :18:12. | |
have invested so much in this war, the deaths, that was enormous. | :18:12. | :18:16. | |
After having spent so much money and blood to ensure that Iraq moved | :18:16. | :18:24. | |
to stability, when a bummer inherited Iraq, it was getting | :18:24. | :18:29. | |
better. The key thing he needed to do was to do what Americans have | :18:29. | :18:32. | |
achieved in places like Korea and Germany and Japan after similar | :18:32. | :18:37. | |
conflicts, which was a continued American presence. He did not | :18:37. | :18:43. | |
deliver that. What concerned him was to get the troops home in time | :18:43. | :18:48. | |
for the American election. It means now the Iraqi army say they are not | :18:48. | :18:51. | |
able to protect their airspace, they are not able to undertake | :18:51. | :18:57. | |
counter terrorism, they are not equipped to look after Iraq. They | :18:57. | :19:02. | |
needed the United States to stay and Obama sabotaged an agreement so | :19:02. | :19:06. | |
that troops could stay for domestic political reasons and that is why | :19:06. | :19:10. | |
we will see Iraq incredibly vulnerable to Iranian and other | :19:10. | :19:17. | |
nations in Florence. I think history will judge Obama very badly | :19:17. | :19:26. | |
for his judgment. -- and other nations influence. | :19:26. | :19:29. | |
Reports from Egypt this weekend that the island still continues on | :19:29. | :19:37. | |
the streets. Where are we? Well, it is the time of revolution, and this | :19:37. | :19:41. | |
is what is happening in the region. And the revolution is not overnight, | :19:41. | :19:50. | |
it is not one week or one month. It will continue in this situation for | :19:50. | :19:56. | |
I really don't know when, it might take a few years. Whether in Egypt | :19:56. | :20:05. | |
or in Syria, everywhere in the region. There is a huge tide coming | :20:05. | :20:12. | |
into the region. Change will happen. What is the role of other countries | :20:12. | :20:16. | |
looking in, Ashish Ray? What should we do to support these emerging | :20:16. | :20:21. | |
democracies? I think support for democracy right across the border | :20:21. | :20:26. | |
is necessary. A country like India, a good example in terms of a | :20:26. | :20:30. | |
developing country, having had democracy from day one, and that is | :20:30. | :20:37. | |
of great benefit for any country to have the freedom to have the rule | :20:37. | :20:41. | |
of law and such like, to encourage the developing world, including | :20:41. | :20:49. | |
China, to encourage... China might not be a great case itself, but the | :20:49. | :20:55. | |
fact that democracy encourages stability, we need to see the Arab | :20:55. | :21:05. | |
:21:05. | :21:06. | ||
Spring actor the results in democracy which is durable. We are | :21:06. | :21:09. | |
witnessing the first shoots, I guess, and therefore, there is some | :21:09. | :21:16. | |
time to go before it can really mature. Even in Egypt, there are | :21:16. | :21:20. | |
signs that the military there doesn't seem too keen to be | :21:20. | :21:25. | |
dislodged from their exalted position. I think we have to wait | :21:25. | :21:31. | |
and watch and watch it very carefully. And encourage the | :21:31. | :21:36. | |
process from outside, more than anything else. Catherine. I am not | :21:36. | :21:41. | |
even sure about what process it is that we think we are encouraging. | :21:41. | :21:48. | |
What is obvious is take a look at that region widely. What we have | :21:48. | :21:53. | |
seen around the world is protest happening everywhere. The Arab | :21:53. | :22:00. | |
Spring sparked protests in China, you mentioned China. You have had | :22:00. | :22:04. | |
Russia, you have had, you know, Kazakhstan, where they have managed | :22:04. | :22:09. | |
to keep the lid on things for a long time, you are seeing this | :22:09. | :22:13. | |
everywhere. I talked earlier about the sort of impotence of leadership | :22:13. | :22:18. | |
across the world at the moment, and this is an interesting moment. And | :22:18. | :22:24. | |
little advert for time. We chose our person of the year, and our | :22:24. | :22:28. | |
person of the year is the protester. It is the protesters because we are | :22:28. | :22:34. | |
not looking across the Arab Spring, but the occupied movements, the | :22:34. | :22:43. | |
indignant ones in Spain. This is a moment where there has been a | :22:43. | :22:47. | |
movement where the political process is not moving. Things like | :22:47. | :22:53. | |
the eurozone crisis, the political leaders are like rabbits in the | :22:53. | :22:56. | |
headlights. People are coming out onto the streets. But we don't know | :22:56. | :23:02. | |
what it will end up like. With that sort of protest, it can end up with | :23:02. | :23:05. | |
something great and wonderful, and democracy the way we want to see it, | :23:05. | :23:09. | |
but it can go in a completely different direction. You say time | :23:09. | :23:16. | |
has chosen the generic protest of. Normally, it is a strong leader | :23:16. | :23:20. | |
that we choose. But what you're saying is that the strength is | :23:20. | :23:26. | |
lying with the be bought. Looking at the runners up, you look through, | :23:26. | :23:30. | |
there may be an argument for Angela Merkel to beat a runner up, but she | :23:30. | :23:36. | |
has been more decisive through what she has not done than through what | :23:36. | :23:42. | |
she has. And the other runner up, I wake, the Chinese dissident, and I | :23:42. | :23:45. | |
profiled Kate Middleton, and some people don't think she should be | :23:45. | :23:49. | |
there, but people went on to the streets. There were people cheering | :23:49. | :23:55. | |
this institution. It is exactly one year ago that fruit seller in | :23:55. | :24:04. | |
Tunisia set fire to himself, which then started this movement. What | :24:04. | :24:09. | |
the editorial team had in mind when they decided this simply they would | :24:09. | :24:14. | |
have a figure, head of state or somebody, but this time they had | :24:14. | :24:21. | |
the street on the cover. People are sick and tired of their leaders. | :24:21. | :24:30. | |
This is a fact in the entire region. That is why an Tunisia, for example, | :24:30. | :24:35. | |
huge demonstrations, and in Egypt, and Syria, people are tired. They | :24:35. | :24:39. | |
want to change the leaders. Their leaders are not fit to lead any | :24:39. | :24:44. | |
longer. Tim, politically across the world, leaders are having to think | :24:44. | :24:48. | |
not just about their own issues but issues such as this, what people | :24:48. | :24:53. | |
want in their own countries and in developing countries. How are we | :24:53. | :24:58. | |
handling it? Politicians realise this is a phenomenon of the | :24:58. | :25:01. | |
internet age. Previously, scattered people were not able to connect | :25:01. | :25:05. | |
with people of a like mind, but social media and the internet means | :25:05. | :25:09. | |
that small groups of people geographically disparate can come | :25:09. | :25:13. | |
together and create a storm, particularly true of the protests | :25:13. | :25:18. | |
we have seen against Vladimir Putin in Moscow. I think what the trick | :25:18. | :25:22. | |
of a politician, the art of a politician is to distinguish | :25:22. | :25:27. | |
between a mass movement, a protest which signals something deep in a | :25:27. | :25:30. | |
country and something which is a small number of people perhaps that | :25:30. | :25:35. | |
are extreme and bent on violence. There is a common theme of violence, | :25:35. | :25:39. | |
but it is more important for politicians to know when these are | :25:39. | :25:44. | |
unrepresentative. If you can quickly tell us what do you think, | :25:44. | :25:48. | |
Ashish Ray. One of the pit bulls is they could be right wing hardline | :25:48. | :25:55. | |
religious elements. It is a pitfall we need to be prepared for. | :25:55. | :26:03. | |
future? Optimistic? No. At side of the West, the world is flourishing. | :26:03. | :26:07. | |
I think the euro crisis is a worry for the whole world, but I think in | :26:07. | :26:12. | |
a year, year-and-a-half, we will be in better times. Thank you for all | :26:12. | :26:17. |