18/02/2012 Dateline London

released without charge. There will be a full news bulletin

at one o'clock. Now it's time for Hello and welcome to Dateline

London. The future of the euro and the Greek bailout in the balance -

yet again. Should sanctions be eased on

Zimbabwe? And is it anyone but Mitt Romney in

the US presidential elections? My guests today are Tererai

Karimakwenda of SW Radio Africa, Anthony Faiola of the Washington

Post, Nisreen Malik of The Guardiam and Adam Raphael of Transport

Magazine. There are signs of a mood change

within the European Union over what to do about Greece. After months of

saying a Greek default would be unthinkable, the German finance

minister this week appeared to be more relaxed at the prospect - amid

some fears in Germany that Greece could be a bottomless pit. So are

we on the verge of a second Greek bailout - or another kind of euro

crisis? People suggest it will go ahead on Monday, but there are

doubts. I think it will go ahead, but I do not think actually,

whatever the financial bits, the fact is that conditions that are

being put on the Greek people are such that no democratic Government

is going to survive. You have half of young people unemployed, wages

being reduced by 25 or 30 %. Can you imagine any Government

surviving those conditions? Whatever the EU fiddles around and

I am sure this next bit will go through, the real issue is how it

it is going to be received by the Greek people. We have already had

riots, but I think it will get much worse and in the end, either the

for any Greek Government will fall and the EU will see, I think, an

exit from the euro, because that is the only way the Greek economy will

revive. It is not likely to revive under the present stringent

measures. I can Germany has a lot of responsibility for what is going

on. The conditions even under Weimar in Germany, were better than

the will be for people increase. The idea of having a German

supervising the Greek people. Quite rightly, the politicians increase

say this is totally intolerable. I have a great deal of sympathy for

what creases going through. I remember the IMF in 1976 year, and

they remember the day when Denis Healey was able to tell them to get

out. And those out nothing like the conditions being imposed on the

Greeks. You get a sense no one knows what they're doing in this

situation. When they gave them the first bail-out, it was assumed it

would put them on a path that would take them out of the situation, but

here we are again the very next year. This is the second bail-out

in two years, so you get a sense no one really understands the forces

at work here and that they seem to be improvising. The country has

been in recession for at least five years, so how do they expect them

to be able to pay back the money? I get a sense that no one understands

what is involved. You have been reporting from

Greece? Absolutely. The situation there is fascinating. Even if the

Greeks did default and leave the euro, there has been an argument

make that this is what they need to do. People have looked at the

Argentine example. Argentine air, after their it defaults, after a

year of deep pain, they were able to start paying again. But the

Greek situation is much more complicated. They do not have a

base it is jump-start from. Because they're in the EU, the cannot

immediately start raising import tariffs. It is such a complex

situation. At the same time, this situation there, the social

upheaval is getting worse and worse. When I was there, you could see

that homelessness was increasing, HIV rates were increasing, the

social fabric is becoming on wind in the country. Do you agree that

no democracy can survive this? There will be elections in April,

and everyone is assuming the majority party will be thrown

white-out. That is a really good point. It is a difficult question

to answer, but I think it is true that the Germans are imposing

impossible goals on a Greek Government. If they had followed

the austerity straitjacket of the letter of the loch, Athens would

probably be in complete cinders by now, rather than the flames we have

seen. If they do all the right things, everything expected of them,

by Twenty20 after another eight years of pain, they will still have

their GDP to debt ratio of 125 %, which is completely unsustainable.

The important points here are that a financial: some station required

has never happened in economic history of the world. --

consolidation. Also changed the political economical to of the

country, it is not a numbers question increase, it is a

political culture question about people paying taxes, the way the

private sector is very moulded into the public sector. But the second

thing which is fascinating, and I think there has been a sea change

over the past four months, is that Greece leaving the EU is no longer

an unmentionable heresy, it is something people are talking about

in practical terms. If and when it does happen, this is when it is

expected to happen. This is because Germany and others feel the risk of

contagion is less severe and the firewalls can prevent contagion

happening. Also Germany is much happier to throw its weight around

without the fear of bringing up the ghosts of 1939. I think the varying

trysting point was the Polish Prime Minister who said he fears German

lack of action rather than German intervention. From Poland of all

countries. There is a general political boldness and a general

lack of fear of Greece falling out. Less than there was.

It may be that the eurozone can survive without Greece. But in

terms of Germany, is part of it that the Germans do not really

quite know what they want. They would like the problem to go way,

they would like to deal with France in sorting it out, but actually in

almost every philosophical sense, it they have been dithering and

Angela Merkel has been dithering. She does not have an easy task, but

they really do come from a position which I think other Europeans are

beginning to find more and more difficult. If Greece does Kohl, the

real issue then is contagion. Then people will bet against Portugal,

against Spain, there will be huge market shifts and the question is

will those countries now be vulnerable? I do not think one can

underplay the consequences of a creek default. Very, very serious.

The politics of Germany, frankly, outside of Germany, are very

difficult to understand. We have a coalition here, but they have a

very different kind of coalition. Angela Merkel rides it brilliantly,

but nevertheless, her hands are very tight.

One thing that strikes me, talking to Germans and German politicians,

is that behind it will, Germany could face huge problems if there

are drop-outs from the euro. They might not be able to have their

export-led recovery. Absolutely, it is fascinating. If you look at the

German relation with the rest of the eurozone, it is almost like the

relationship between the United States and China. The Germans have

a massive surplus when it comes to trade with the other countries are

matters one reason why they have been able to feed their economy.

They would risk that if you started seeing disintegration of the

eurozone. I think that is one reason why you see Angela Merkel

and her Finance Minister and others arguing that default is an option.

She has basically maintained a line that this would be bad for Germany

and bad for Europe. I was reading somewhere, they were saying the

birthplace of democracy is the one place where people have no choice

any more. There is no democracy, they're being told exactly what to

do. That picks up something you were alluding to earlier. When I

talk to politicians, there is a sense of real despair, because they

cannot really get out of it. There is despair, but also

isolation. You feel the political class has become isolated from the

people in Greece. The current Prime Minister has not been elected. The

Government policies are being imposed from outside. So you have a

three-tiered disconnection, you have the troika, the Government and

then the people, none of which is talking to the other. I was hearing

reports from grace about higher politicians are hiding from the

people. They're not giving interviews, not allowing certain

features to come out into the media. They feel they are not answerable

any more. They cannot give any answers in the short term. What is

interesting is that all great parties have signed up to their

demands. Will a change of Government help? Will the new party

be able to survive the sort of conditions that are being imposed?

It is very difficult from outside to judge another country's politics.

I would just be amazed. The IMF would never dream of imposing such

harsh conditions on a country which is receiving aid. Nothing like that

happened in Britain. I do not believe anywhere has ever imposed

such tough conditions. While the world's attention has

been focused on the Arab Spring and the overthrow of ageing dictators -

one of Africa's most notorious - Robert Mugabe - remains hopeful

that sanctions on his country might be eased. Should they be? And what

are conditions like now in Zimbabwe? It is Robert Mugabe's

18th birthday. Celebrating in style. He is supposed to be spending �1

million for this benefit. He remains the only candidate the

party has put forth for the next elections, at age 88 and having

been in power since 1980. Yesterday, the EU eased restrictions, those

targeted sanctions placed on him and his allies. They removed 51

names from the list of those whose assets were frozen and who have

travel restrictions. On that list, is the foreign minister and the

justice minister. If you look at this situation on the ground, those

sanctions were imposed because there were human rights abuses

going on. Nothing has changed. This week, a group of female activists

were pulverised by the police with batons sticks for just marching on

Valentine's Day, giving her a love cards. Not allowed to do that in

Zimbabwe. The police came down on them, made arrests and bashed them.

People are still in jail on trumped-up charges, politicians are

being arrested on trumped-up charges. Foreign newspapers have

been threatened, if they do not register, they will not be allowed

to work in Zimbabwe. And a group of NGOs were told they could not

Are the sanctions working? They are hurting the people but not the

political classes. There are no real sanctions on Zimbabwe plus a.

These were targeted restrictions on Mugabe and his close allies. Assets

were frozen and there were travel restrictions, they couldn't go to

America or Europe. So there are no sanctions. But Robert Mugabe is

playing the card. But it is not true. Is it hopeless for outsiders

to do anything? South Africa is supposed to have taken the lead.

Then Nigeria was tempted to do some things but nothing has happened.

The older I become the more ageist I become. It is absurd a man of 88

should be there. It sends a very bad signal, this relaxation of

sanctions. On the other hand, you have got to deal with Zimbabwe, I

think, in an African context. I don't think Europeans or Americans

will have much sway. It has got to be done throughout Africa, however

infuriating it might be. It has been a sad disappointment so far,

but if we are going to have any part to play, it has got to be

through African countries. I am a bit constricted about this because

I am from Sudan and there are sanctions on Sudan, quite severe

sanctions. I see your point that there are not any sanctions on

Zimbabwe as an economy, but I think a certain isolation of the

political class from the international community helps them

entrench even further. I kind of seat where people are coming from

when they talk about easing sanctions, especially if they

haven't worked, especially if they have not been severe enough for

people to affect regime changed. People think that if you get the

government and members of the government to engage with the

international community by coaxing and diplomacy, maybe you can get

some kind of incremental change happening, because in Sudan that is

the case. The government is so isolated, they have nothing to lose.

Therefore, it becomes a catch 22. Such severe sanctions are imposed,

the government becomes cut off from the rest of the world and has

nothing to lose, and therefore becomes more dictatorial. I can see

where the view is coming from. is interesting. These are very

personally targeted sanctions. You are not creating an embargo. In

fact, understanding is that looking at the US Embassy website for

Zimbabwe, they are heralding the fact that trade has increased

between the US and Zimbabwe. This is to prevent Mugabe from shopping

at Harrods. Or Mrs Mugabe. Exactly. To that extent, you would imagine

that it would have not had a big effect. But they want negotiations

which is why they have lifted it. But I guess sanctions are always a

hard sell. The problem with some Bob Quick is that you are dealing

with a regime that is very clever. -- the problem with Zimbabwe. If

this was being done by a white government, let's go back a

generation to Ian Smith, the whole world was up in arms. Apartheid,

apartheid. Let's go and help. But it is being done by a black

President, so it is hands off because Robert Mugabe played the

race card, very cleverly. It is an African problem. There is a Jacob

Zuma's exact words. You talk about people Valentine -- you talk about

people handing a Valentine's cards and been beaten up. What about the

opposition, which some people feel they have sold out because they

have given a degree of respectability to this democratic

process in Zimbabwe? The MDC, by joining the coalition government,

they create another layer of problems because when you talk

about the Zimbabwe and the government, they are a part of it.

So when they are beaten and arrested, and they are, arrested,

thrown in jail, they are being prevented from holding rallies. The

actual Prime Minister himself is not respected by the army. They

don't salute him. He cannot share government meetings. At nothing

happens. He continues to make unilateral decisions. Joining the

coalition, they say, to stop the violence, and it was a way to

stabilise the economy, to give people a bit of a reprieve. But now

they are a part of the government, and that is a problem.

Pew Research Prince Rick Santorum, now at least neck-and-neck with

Mitt Romney for the Republican nomination to challenge President

Obama. Is he a credible set -- candidate or is it anyone but Mitt

Romney moment? What do you make of what is going on in your country?

Mitt Romney is having a hard time as a front runner. Rick Santorum

initially surprised many during the Iowa caucus, and then you see after

Florida, Mitt Romney set the record straight again and said, I am the

front runner. Since, we have seen Rick Santorum emerge as this might

of bright candidate, one that is appealing to the cap --

Conservatives, and Mitt Romney is having a hard time attracting. It

is a difficult position for him be partly because he has to combat

this image... He has to presenters of just as conservative as Rick

Santorum in order to fight this fight, and that is not where he

wants to be when it comes to the actual election against Obama.

is far too right wing. Exactly. He jeopardises the middle voters

forced to up I think he has a bigger problem in that he is very

wealthy. And he is failing to connect with the hinterland of the

Republican voter. In Michigan, it has been interesting, where Rick

Santorum has come out with, my father was a coal miner, and this

sort of upper working class schticks. And it has worked. And

Mick Rollitt is struggling because he has a very lucrative career in

private equity. And his father before him had capital. Especially

in this current climate, which is very anti- banking, he is not an

oil magnet. He is a financier. say this is coming out within the

Republican Party, so you can imagine that if he is the candidate,

come the autumn, this kind of class thing is going to play very hard.

We have seen some other Republicans saying, this will be the guy that

will give you the pink slip. Absolutely. This is playing out a -

- against the backdrop of the occupier Wall Street, and 81%

environment. -- and the 1% environment. That is where Rick

Santorum is coming in. I do not disagree, but is he a credible

candidate? The answer is no. This man is a par bright win up to. I

accept I am approaching this as a white European, but nevertheless,

this man is totally unelectable. He may be electable in Republican

primaries, but this is a sign. This is why American politics is

fascinating. America has gone collectively mad in this Republican

race. It is extraordinary to European eyes they could put

forward such a bunch of nutcases to try to, you know, contest for the

most serious political post in the world. Obama must be laughing, that

is all I can say. He is loving every day of the year. Rick

Santorum is not credible. He may win in Michigan because of all the

sensible things you have said, but, my goodness. Poor America. I would

have to agree. I love the language she is using in describing him as a

nut. But you have a situation where the Republicans do not have much of

a choice in terms of candidates this time around. I cannot see

anyone strong enough to challenge Obama. You are talking about the

religious fanaticism, and all of the Mormon background, and that

will never win in the general election. As you say, it may play

in certain states where Republicans and Conservatives have the majority,

but when it comes to the National Stakes, they will never produce a

candidate going against Obama. he will be running against whoever

wins the Republican nomination, but he will be running against the

economy. What it comes down to is what is the American economy going

to look like at that time people are going to the ballot boxes? I

mean, Americans, you know, they will make a decision based on their

pocketbooks. They always do. That said, party affiliations come

through. And polls suggest some Torran -- and polls suggest Rick

Santorum going forward. The Republicans are having a back and

forth and creating ill-feeling and ill-will. That is exactly what the

Democrats want. How can this big party destroy itself in this way?

cannot remember any time in American politics we have had a big

party taken over by people who really are not representative of

the election. But to have a huge purchase on these primaries. It is

worrying and bizarre. Isn't it also true, for instance, Arnold

Schwarzenegger up in California. If he had to go through the usual

process, because it was a special election, he would probably not

have been the Republican candidate, because he would have been seen too

far in the centre. There is a problem here. The tea-party and

their influence remains strong, especially when it comes to the

base of supporting candidates. That said, looking at this from a

European point of view, you have to understand America is more

conservative. I understand that. Goldwater and Reagan, they were not

like this lot. These people had a real resonance. I am being unfair

to you, but I want to test you to say, is this a moment of madness

for America, or is it part of the great American political process?

There would be Democrats that agree with you.