25/02/2012 Dateline London

Welcome to Dateline London. There are to international conferences

this week looking at two problems. So they are and Somalia. We have

some guests with us today. Welcome to all of you. Tunis was

the setting for the latest attempt to tackle the situation in Serbia.

This week, hundreds of civilians died and two prominent foreign

journalists were killed. There is once again a sense of urgency but

also frustration. You knew that said journalist.

They are being so brittle in any case. They are targeting civilian

houses, which has people know, they do not have had -- fighter's in

them. She was always there, calling what they are doing. They get very

annoyed about Western journalists in particular, and of course, she

was American which is another reason to dislike her. Indeed, I

was told that there were spreading rumours that she was a Zionist Jew,

which as far as I knew, and I did know her and loved her dearly, she

was another any such thing. -- she was never. I think the two deaths

sharpen up the comments that are going on. Hillary is being very

fierce in her, then that -- in her condemnation. That might partly be

because of Murray. A sentimental thing. I had been crying for about

24 hours after her death. Although many people have died, and

we cannot say that two Westerners being killed has changed things in

Syria, it certainly has changed the international view.

I think that is right. The context is ever so dreadful and this is a

kind of exclamation points rather than a whole paragraph. It is a

combination of Western journalists and Syrians in Homs who are getting

this news out to the world in a way that was completely impossible when

President Assad's father massacred so many people 20 years ago. Seles

will start with all the complexities of how do you take

down this regime. The army is fighting back, there are snipers

who are killing civilians and they are selling these places. You

cannot wave a wand and make this go away. You see the frustration at

the conference. Hillary Clinton's words, particularly against Russia

and China, at that conference, it was very strong language. It seems

to be a move forward from the Americans being more proactive.

You do need rush-hour. They were not even there. Time was not there.

I think one of the things the journalist dead, if you beat her

last piece, and see her reporting, there are so many people in denial.

Are reporting was so... You were almost there if you read her latest

piece in the Times. It was a reporting. And it was the

ordinary people she really cared about.

I think Russia might have changed it to in a little bit but

ultimately there is still more than residual support for the regime. We

are not seeing what we saw in Libya where you stop defections from

government ministers, trying to escape, or diplomats saying they

did not want to represent the regime any more. It seems to be

more of localised in the North, and we are not seeing much happening in

Damascus. Given the military power of President Assad's regime and the

fact he is being backed by these countries like Russia with arms and

military might, where can you go from here? Europe cannot too much.

They can try to convince the Assad regime to negotiate to a certain

extent. This idea that we can over pro-IRA seen just like that and

then we will have democracy flourish, the whole is -- history

of the world from South America, to Eastern Europe, and Africa, teaches

us that any successful process of regime change requires compromises

with the established regime. It is not pretty but the world is not

black and white. They need to compromise with Passat and he has

to give some way. -- Assad. He has to give away some more and agree to

a ceasefire and that should be the priority. But this idea that we

will armed the Serbian Resistance, the proposal of Saudi Arabia are,

not exactly oracles of democracy in the Middle East, I think the

dangers of this kind of steady military and harsh language towards

Syria is more of a hindrance than a help. Do you think that there is

room for negotiation or compromise? I cannot see be a sad clan

negotiating at all. They have now decided this is a fight to the debt.

They know that if they lose, they will be executed or lynched. As far

as I know, none of them have fled abroad. What really worries me is

because the pictures we see are so horrific, and we are not educated

about the Middle East and particularly so the a, we think

that everybody in Syria is against the a SAT regime. What is

incontrovertible is that almost one-third of Syrians are minority

groups and they are terrified of the Passat regime is over from,

what will happen to them afterwards? -- if the Assad regime

is overthrown. A subset of his clan control 70% of the army. They have

already been targeted for rid bench attacks so they will not go. The

conscripts may not go. -- revenge attacks. I feel that if we go in

and darned these people, we are insane. Look at what is happening

in Libya. The National Transitional Council or whatever it calls itself

cannot control the heavily-armed militias who are now wreaking havoc

because they are fighting for power, and Amnesty gave about the hair

raising a report about what they are doing, torturing other militia

members, etc. And I feel the offals thing is, you do not like to do

this, call me when it is all over. -- awful. Do not harm them. Call me

when it is over. Is the White House taking a stronger stance now?

seem to be leaning forward. They seemed to say that somehow,

somewhere they will get arms. There is evidence that there are racy

members moving their families and their money, preparing for the end.

Certainly not on the scale of Libya and it took a long time for Gaddafi

to go even after these defections. They are trying to get a break.

They want humanitarian aid to come in. There will be our main of some

rebel groups. Some stuff is said to be smuggled in. And there is

monitoring of all of this in great detail and I do not think there

will be drawn attacks. -- drone attacks. Republicans will want to

make Obama look week in an election year. I want to widen this issue to

the whole region. I am thinking of Iran in the equation. Give us an

overview of where you think this will lead?

Iran is one of the supporters. It is their only ally. They have no

others. With all that is going on in Iran, they are clinging to said

they are. If so the a goes, you take a way they ran's right hand. -

- if Syria goes, you take away a ran's right hand.

So they are's fault would be a benefit to those who want to take

down Iran as well. You have sanctions against Serbia, which is

negligible. -- Syria. In the past, imposing sanctions made the regime

immune to pressure because it consolidates, and they become very

inward looking. The business is are suffering at the moment. What about

the oil? We have already seen oil prices at their highest level since

2011 because of the tension in Iran, and it is not just the sanctions

against the regime. It is shipping, insurance, fears of disruption. In

many ways, we are seeing the Arabs are much more frightened of a

nuclear a man and they are of Israel. What do you make of the

European position on this? Do you think Europe is hesitating because

of the greater problem of sorting out Sadie and Qurban? Absolutely. -

- Syria and Iran. I think the position is clouded. They are

concentrating on highly targeted economic sanctions, targeting the

have SAT family, and so on. In Iran, the solution has always been one of

finding a political solution. Recent findings about the nuclear

weapons programme of Qurban, a recent findings by an independent

groupings saying there are no evidence of them using it for

military purposes. I think the Europeans will stick to that

narrative because they are already involved in so many other places.

Libya is one of the latest European excursions and it is not exactly a

role-model for the future. They have to be very careful. On the

question of opposition, briefly, William Hague, the British Foreign

Secretary, was saying that these are the National Council is one of

the voices, not the voice. The problem is they are getting an

opposition but not necessarily something that they would want.

is dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood, I interviewed the

previous leader of the Muslim Brotherhood. He said, you have the

wrong idea about the Muslim Brotherhood. They were illegal in

Egypt and indeed in Syria. We are not extremists, but when I

questioned him, yes, we must have Saddi a law, we must have stoning

of a doll to bars, and we must have this. Absolutely unbelievable. I

keep being told by friends of the brotherhood that it is out of date

and they have changed completely and they will not impose Saddi a

lot when they get in, which they are confident they will, but most

secular people in Serbia do not believe them. -- Sharia Law. The

idea that it is representing anything except it's on a fairly

narrow group, it is the largest one, and the best organised, because the

Muslim Brotherhood are very The British Government hosted a

conference on Somalia this week - a country which has known little but

conflict and misery over the past 20 years. Although overshadowed in

the news agenda the main threats as highlighted at the conference

remain - terrorism, piracy and the humanitarian effects of conflict

and drought. Jef, what is the answer? It would be wrong to have

an answer that I could deliver on a programme like this. You need a

working Government that is not corrupt, you need foreign help, you

need to get Al-Shabab, of the group which is most against the

Government to be pushed out Miller Tadley and another ways, and that

is what the plant this. They are trying to get the Government in

Mogadishu to be more representative, to have elections, to have some

approximate method of getting the will of the people. There have been

successes, the famine is essentially over. There is still a

great deal of suffering, but they have been more innovative in

getting aid to the people who need it. There is progress, the UN has

approved greater numbers for the force that is effective in fighting

various enemies. But ates are the mess which is called the tyranny of

the week. You try to do something and you do not have local people to

do it through. It takes a long time and it is miserable. Yes, it is a

failed state. It is not going to be unveiled any time soon. I am an old

lady and I know I'm going to be dead before we talk about Somalia

or in a different way. But there is a slight glimmer of light. The fact

that Al-Shabab are being pushed out and also they are losing any kind

of support, partly because of there behaviour in general, but also

during the famine, 80,000 people died. They go on international

television and say there is no famine. They would not allow any

humanitarian relief to come in and by the way, I have never seen such

fact Somali people as the Al-Shabab. -- fat. You saw such stick-thin so

mullions and the people from Al- Shabab were so fat. Will it take an

international effort? I do not think Mrs Sally peacekeepers, the

African union is there and the United Nations just increase the

number of peacekeeping forces from the African Union, but the Kenyans

are regional rival also mullions. Probably they will see the meddling

of neighbouring countries. But I would like to cast aspersions on

the failed state rhetoric. Despite 20 years of famine, higher you see,

clan wars and so on, some aliens have proved to be a highly

resourceful and resilient people. A highly resourceful nation, in this

sense that in the past 10 years, they have managed to build up

schools, hospitals, banks, universities. They are highly

entrepreneurial. So Malik businessmen are very important in

Africa. They have been able to do certain things. There is the

example of what Somaliland, which declared independence in 1971. It

has run itself fairly well, it is stable. There is Puntland, which

has achieved a certain level of self- Government. Somalis have been

doing a certain number of things. One of the things his involvement

of other civil society. There has been a great focus on the diaspora.

Far more important to involve local Somalis. They have an egalitarian

society, with clans and local forms of justice. This has to be taking

into account when looking at Government for its just. --

structures. Power has to be devolved if we want to put an end

to the problems. The two is an interesting thought. At the

conference this week, one thing that came out is that Somalis have

to be involved. It has to be men who decide what their future is.

But they cannot do it without help. They were at my hotel and they did

not look hungry at all. But the Somalis were doing it themselves

with help from troops, but why have we suddenly become concerned with

Somalia? Beatty's with the piracy. The threat of two failed states on

either side, Somalia and your men. Yemen is maybe now trying to get

themselves together, they have had an election. Although not everybody

is happy. Suddenly the focus is on Somalia. As you said, they are

egalitarian. One thing that came out of the conference, is that

women need to be included. As we know, it is important to get the

women included, because then we do not have so many wars. All these

years, we have neglected Somalia. But it is so clannish. At one point,

they had more than 100 local governments. We have no business

there, actually. We should welcome the fact that it is localised and

clan based. It is the terrible thing that has happened to Somalia

is that the clan base system there, because clans from time immemorial

have quarrelled with each other and to killed each other. They now have

more weapons to do it, because in the olden days when it was will

desert, really just poisoning a few wells and stealing a few coats was

about the limit. I do not think you can build a modern state, which in

the end you have to, on the basis of tiny little clan groupings with

their own justice system, with their own loyalties and this

loyalties. You're saying the West has to come

in and show them how to do it. course there will be endless

numbers of busy bawdy good governance people coming in there,

white people in their Land cruisers, bossing the Somalis are around. Yes,

it is useful to tell them how you run these things, but in the end,

it does have to beat the Somalis who do it and the more the medal,

the more we actually make it worse. We have not learnt the lesson that

the West does not own for world. It is therefore a big mistake to

decide that we are going to convert societies that her very different

from ours into a similar crumb of This weekend it's the great

Hollywood party for the Oscars. I thought we should ask our panel who

they wanted to win this year. Can I start with you, Kate? Your tip for

best actor and actress. I have not seen all the films, but

the ones I have seen, the artist is hard to beat. I will go with Jean

Dujardin. I will also go with Jean Dujardin. He was very charming. To

do a silent movie as well as he did, you have to be very good at your

craft. And Meryl Streep should get it for best female at tour.

When Helen Mirren 1 for the Queen, she went to all these parties and

morph into the Queen. Maybe that will happen to Meryl Streep. I am

very upset, because I think Meryl Streep is the most brilliant screen

actress ever. She is not going to get best actress. Why is that?

Partly because I think, because I think it is going to be Viola Davis.

But they are both black and it is about a period of social history

that Americans feel very complicated about and want to see

it make nice. Mrs Thatcher, well... A quick final slot from you.

I hope she coat does not win a lot of awards, because I got it was