Browse content similar to 03/03/2012. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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hit by the storms, with some communities completely destroyed. - | :00:03. | :00:13. | |
:00:13. | :00:26. | ||
- con -- Kentucky and Indiana. Now it is time for Dateline London. | :00:26. | :00:32. | |
Russia goes to the polls, but how far would the return of Vladimir | :00:32. | :00:38. | |
Putin to the presidency be welcome? The struggle for Syria. And the | :00:38. | :00:43. | |
European Union tries to enforce discipline. My guests Dmitry | :00:43. | :00:47. | |
Shishkin of the BBC Russia Service, Francis Matthew of the Gulf News, | :00:47. | :00:55. | |
Dr Vincent Magombe of Africa Inform and Henry Chu of the LA Times. As | :00:55. | :01:01. | |
prime minister, Vladimir Putin has never been far from power. Should | :01:01. | :01:06. | |
we welcome stability in Russia or be concerned that another | :01:06. | :01:15. | |
presidency by Vladimir Putin would create instability. The question is | :01:16. | :01:20. | |
whether he will win in the first round at the polls the Sunday or | :01:20. | :01:25. | |
the second round. The Kremlin is probably eager to win in the first | :01:25. | :01:33. | |
round of voting. They will probably face the disdain which started | :01:33. | :01:38. | |
after the parliamentary elections. Nothing will change. The country is | :01:38. | :01:43. | |
different and changing. The city classes are more robust in what | :01:43. | :01:49. | |
they ask from the government. Apparently Putin it will not be | :01:49. | :01:59. | |
:01:59. | :02:00. | ||
able to simply use money to charm them. It is about the middle class | :02:00. | :02:05. | |
who are not putting any economic changes to the government. It is | :02:05. | :02:12. | |
about how they see themselves in the country. To be clear, in terms | :02:12. | :02:16. | |
of the fairness of the election. Even though it there have been | :02:16. | :02:24. | |
complaints already, is it clear that he would win any way? It is. | :02:24. | :02:30. | |
It is a different situation to several years ago when he was | :02:30. | :02:36. | |
undeniably the President of the majority of Russians. But steel if | :02:36. | :02:44. | |
you go by Moscow and St Petersburg you feel that people do not | :02:44. | :02:49. | |
necessarily associate themselves with protest movements. It is all | :02:49. | :02:56. | |
about the economy, jobs and well- being. They definitely associate | :02:56. | :03:04. | |
themselves with the Putin. One of the things which strikes me is that | :03:04. | :03:09. | |
all around the world including the Gulf region is that there has | :03:09. | :03:14. | |
always a trade-off between the demand for change, more democracy, | :03:15. | :03:18. | |
more freedom and the gut instinct which human beings have for | :03:18. | :03:24. | |
stability. That often rules over change. They have to do something | :03:24. | :03:29. | |
to improve their lifestyle, to keep people earning money. That is a | :03:29. | :03:39. | |
major challenge in Russia. And that is why the dissed content from the | :03:39. | :03:47. | |
middle classes is obvious? Yes. will they manage to muster as much | :03:47. | :03:55. | |
street presence as necessary? will start to fade as Russia goes | :03:55. | :04:01. | |
into the season between late spring and summer. I do not just mean | :04:01. | :04:05. | |
opposition politicians, but a group of people not happy with the | :04:05. | :04:13. | |
political systems. They need to set themselves up to be involved in the | :04:13. | :04:23. | |
:04:23. | :04:24. | ||
political process. Currently it is a motley crew of people who are not | :04:24. | :04:34. | |
:04:34. | :04:36. | ||
united. But that is how democracy works, isn't it? Absolutely false - | :04:36. | :04:46. | |
:04:46. | :04:50. | ||
- absolutely. I was in Leningrad for ten years, 1980 to 1990. I am | :04:50. | :04:56. | |
very familiar with what is happening. It is a bit of a tragedy | :04:56. | :05:06. | |
:05:06. | :05:06. | ||
for a Russian people. I see them as being like Uganda. They do not have | :05:06. | :05:15. | |
anything like democracy. Even after perestroika when they are modern | :05:15. | :05:19. | |
and can set an example of democratic process, they do not. If | :05:20. | :05:27. | |
you look carefully, the Russian people do not know what to do. Do | :05:28. | :05:33. | |
they put the communists back into power who will then give them no | :05:33. | :05:38. | |
freedom or democracy? Or do they stick by someone who is a classic | :05:38. | :05:46. | |
dictator, like Putin. One of these days we will see manoeuvres after | :05:46. | :05:52. | |
he comes to power. He wants to stay in power as long as he can. | :05:52. | :06:02. | |
:06:02. | :06:02. | ||
detector that? We have seen all the tricks that he has used to stay in | :06:02. | :06:11. | |
power. I can see what Putin is doing. He thinks, many Russian | :06:11. | :06:16. | |
people would rather have me than the communists, so he will do | :06:16. | :06:22. | |
anything by paying his way with changes to the constitution. Their | :06:22. | :06:29. | |
choice now is not between him and the communists. The communists will | :06:29. | :06:39. | |
:06:39. | :06:42. | ||
probably only polled 15%. His main fear or is that things will happen | :06:42. | :06:50. | |
such as have happened in the Ukraine and Georgia. What we can | :06:50. | :06:56. | |
see in Africa and now in Russia is new generations of people who are | :06:56. | :07:06. | |
:07:06. | :07:11. | ||
aware of their rights. Slowly, Putin might think that the movement | :07:11. | :07:18. | |
is not strong now. After a while it will be. Just like in my country. | :07:18. | :07:26. | |
In Uganda we have tried to take the government off and we think it is | :07:26. | :07:32. | |
impossible, but we are trying. wonder about other governments, | :07:32. | :07:38. | |
whatever they say about flawed democracy. It is they tear the | :07:38. | :07:45. | |
devil you know. They like dealing with people they have dealt within | :07:45. | :07:52. | |
the past. -- it is better the devil you know. He then the system that | :07:52. | :07:58. | |
Putin would still be in charge of has changed from what I understand. | :07:58. | :08:04. | |
It has rotted from corruption and the levels of power he has | :08:04. | :08:11. | |
exercised are not what they used to be for him. Potentially two more | :08:11. | :08:16. | |
terms, until 2024. It is difficult to imagine somebody being in power | :08:16. | :08:24. | |
until then. Robert Mugabe may be to defer. I do not not know if we can | :08:24. | :08:31. | |
equate that with stability. Several foreign journalists yesterday, | :08:31. | :08:38. | |
including from the Times, spoke to him and he said, let's wait and see | :08:38. | :08:43. | |
if I am elected. I do not necessarily want to stay for that | :08:43. | :08:53. | |
:08:53. | :08:55. | ||
time. If you look at the type of people who campaign against him, | :08:55. | :09:05. | |
:09:05. | :09:07. | ||
they are not typical Ugandans. Mass action for change. In Russia, | :09:07. | :09:13. | |
everybody is educated. Many people know how to use the internet and | :09:13. | :09:22. | |
other channels. You were talking about the opposition and the new | :09:22. | :09:28. | |
generation. Even if he is the next president, is he yesterday's man in | :09:28. | :09:36. | |
a sense? That is a balancing needs to strike between pleasing the | :09:36. | :09:41. | |
people who still support him and giving something to the angry | :09:41. | :09:51. | |
:09:51. | :09:52. | ||
middle class. People in the big cities. A good thing happened to | :09:52. | :09:59. | |
his opponents on 5th March. A demonstration was allowed to happen | :09:59. | :10:06. | |
in the centre of Moscow, in Pushkin Square. Russians are really afraid | :10:06. | :10:13. | |
of anything to do with violence. After 90 years of their history, | :10:13. | :10:23. | |
:10:23. | :10:24. | ||
both sides understand that violent methods are not suitable. | :10:24. | :10:28. | |
sensitive the his Putin and other people in Russia to what people | :10:28. | :10:38. | |
:10:38. | :10:40. | ||
think of them? I think the West has been dealing with Putin based on | :10:40. | :10:49. | |
the overall values, like gas. I think it is very practical. Putin | :10:49. | :10:54. | |
is very isolationist. He will say anything he wants to say about the | :10:54. | :10:58. | |
West because he knows that the West it needs him more than the other | :10:58. | :11:08. | |
:11:08. | :11:09. | ||
way around. And we do need gas. The journalists rescued from Syria | :11:09. | :11:15. | |
again remind us of the dreadful situation there. The Arab League | :11:15. | :11:20. | |
has tried and everyone is very concerned. Much of the world is | :11:20. | :11:25. | |
talking with one voice now. It is difficult to see how intervention | :11:25. | :11:31. | |
can happen. On people are very angry and there is increasing | :11:31. | :11:35. | |
discussed about what the Government has done. Every week another | :11:35. | :11:42. | |
hundred people killed. People want to do something, but what? There is | :11:42. | :11:46. | |
a rather chaotic political opposition so it is difficult to | :11:46. | :11:53. | |
get behind them and push. Divided among themselves, as well. | :11:53. | :12:03. | |
:12:03. | :12:05. | ||
Syrian army has held territory, but there is no front line. Is an army | :12:05. | :12:10. | |
going to suddenly take on the Syrian army in Syria? The front | :12:10. | :12:15. | |
line is between the army and the people and they are making to link. | :12:15. | :12:21. | |
As we have seen in Homs where the Free Syria Army has withdrawn. The | :12:22. | :12:26. | |
injured British journalists said it was not the Free Syria Army against | :12:26. | :12:35. | |
the Syrian army. You should not underestimate the power of the | :12:35. | :12:45. | |
:12:45. | :12:47. | ||
people. In that he Libya, everybody said it could not happen. -- in | :12:47. | :12:54. | |
Libya. The determination i c a amongst those pro-democracy forces | :12:54. | :13:04. | |
:13:04. | :13:07. | ||
in Syria. I personally feel it is so enormous and growing by the day. | :13:07. | :13:16. | |
It will be very hard for Assad to sustain his hold on power for the | :13:16. | :13:22. | |
long-term, even without external intervention. He may be fighting to | :13:22. | :13:31. | |
the last Syrian. There are so many dead now. Hillary Clinton said he | :13:31. | :13:37. | |
should be brought up on charges and that will only make him entrenched | :13:37. | :13:45. | |
himself further. People are getting pounded and at least in Libya they | :13:45. | :13:50. | |
were defections from the army. We are not seeing that on a large | :13:50. | :14:00. | |
:14:00. | :14:05. | ||
scale in Syria. In that Libya we did not have Armenian same -- army | :14:05. | :14:11. | |
personnel saying they were running things. They our loyal to Assad so | :14:11. | :14:21. | |
:14:21. | :14:22. | ||
you are not having the same kind of mass defections. There is no | :14:22. | :14:31. | |
political offer it to the Alawites to join them. That is where the | :14:31. | :14:40. | |
international community comes in. I think the international community | :14:40. | :14:46. | |
can almost forced the negotiation to go one. Kofi Annan and his being | :14:46. | :14:55. | |
sent there. I do not know if he can manage it or not. The Alawites have | :14:55. | :15:00. | |
a sense that they may get away with it. Depressingly, I think the | :15:00. | :15:05. | |
government forces feel they may get through. I do not think they feel | :15:05. | :15:15. | |
they are on their last legs. could compare it to Tripoli. Libya | :15:15. | :15:22. | |
is different because there you had Benghazi which was rebel territory | :15:22. | :15:29. | |
and to Gaddafi control the West. There was an organised push. It was | :15:29. | :15:35. | |
fluid. NATO was able to help the rebels become more coherent and arm | :15:35. | :15:45. | |
:15:45. | :15:48. | ||
It is easy for us to say they are disorganised and divided. But as we | :15:48. | :15:52. | |
see them making great efforts to try to set up the unified command | :15:52. | :15:59. | |
and so on, I know there are several governments within the Middle East | :15:59. | :16:03. | |
that are quite keen and are perhaps already starting to arm these | :16:03. | :16:10. | |
people. Saudi Arabia and Qatar have already done so. There is another | :16:10. | :16:15. | |
backlash, they say they are turning it into more of a Sunni opposition. | :16:15. | :16:19. | |
But the opposition want support from wherever they can get it. But | :16:19. | :16:25. | |
that is money and organisation. If the Arab forces going, that would | :16:25. | :16:33. | |
be a problem. Vladimir Putin could offer her President Assad asylum in | :16:33. | :16:38. | |
Moscow. Is he going to change? Once he is elected? Will he change in | :16:38. | :16:43. | |
any way? I do not been so. I think the recent points of history in | :16:43. | :16:47. | |
Russia show you that apart from Afghanistan, which Russia supported | :16:47. | :16:54. | |
after 9/11, you have Serbian bombings in the late 90s and also | :16:54. | :16:59. | |
obviously Iraq, which Russia did not support and continues to not | :17:00. | :17:04. | |
support. Their stance on Syria is very clear. They do not want to | :17:04. | :17:09. | |
support anything that will start to look as if the international | :17:09. | :17:14. | |
coalition starts to happen. There was this meeting which Russia and | :17:14. | :17:18. | |
China boycotted recently. The Russian Foreign Minister actually | :17:18. | :17:26. | |
called the meeting something almost the first steps to get something | :17:26. | :17:33. | |
happening, a military operation. Does Vladimir Putin not care about | :17:33. | :17:37. | |
Arab public opinion? It is interesting because the Russian | :17:38. | :17:42. | |
foreign policy be -- towards the Arab world is very strange. It is | :17:42. | :17:46. | |
uneven. Russia tries to deal with Israel on one hand and the Arab | :17:46. | :17:56. | |
:17:56. | :17:58. | ||
world and another. But you would think that Russia would mimic the | :17:58. | :18:02. | |
relationship the Arab Union has with -- the European Union has with | :18:02. | :18:08. | |
the Arab world. But Russia is all about domestic policy now. The | :18:08. | :18:17. | |
foreign policy in Russia is probably... Russia is operating in | :18:17. | :18:20. | |
a certain way. They are doing exactly what the Americans and | :18:20. | :18:25. | |
everyone else is doing in international foreign policy. In | :18:25. | :18:35. | |
:18:35. | :18:38. | ||
this case, they know very well that the Americans... Recently Americans | :18:38. | :18:48. | |
:18:48. | :18:48. | ||
deployed troops. The Russians are doing exactly what the Americans | :18:48. | :18:56. | |
would do in certain countries. some of our viewers will say that | :18:56. | :19:01. | |
is what the Americans are doing in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain for | :19:01. | :19:07. | |
example. And Israel. Yes. It is hard to shield the US from | :19:07. | :19:11. | |
criticism. And I am not going to do that. But Russia appeared to be | :19:11. | :19:15. | |
stepping back slightly in terms of saying they are not for any kind of | :19:15. | :19:19. | |
military intervention. But neither would they prop up Syria militarily. | :19:19. | :19:25. | |
So that should be something... they had a bad experience at | :19:25. | :19:29. | |
watching NATO get its mandate to save civilian lives. Then it turned | :19:29. | :19:34. | |
it into regime change is Libya. And they do not want to be conned again | :19:34. | :19:39. | |
in Syria. So if they are going to get a UN resolution, they will want | :19:39. | :19:44. | |
to be very specific. Moving on. The European Union summit in Brussels | :19:44. | :19:47. | |
saw the signing of a new treaty to enforce fiscal discipline. | :19:47. | :19:52. | |
Something agreed by 25 EU countries. Britain and the Czech Republic | :19:52. | :19:56. | |
remain on the outside. How fit is Europe now to whether the euros and | :19:56. | :20:02. | |
crisis which is still far from being resolved? One of the things I | :20:02. | :20:05. | |
noticed, one speaker said in a battle between economics and | :20:05. | :20:08. | |
politics, no matter what politicians say, economics will | :20:08. | :20:12. | |
always win. Her view was that no matter what you think, Greece will | :20:12. | :20:22. | |
:20:22. | :20:22. | ||
be out of the eurozone. If I was in addition, I would say a couple of | :20:22. | :20:28. | |
years from now we would have the euro. In a certain way, even if | :20:28. | :20:34. | |
people feel confident, look at how much money is being put in every | :20:34. | :20:39. | |
month. After a month, they say it has not worked, we need to put in | :20:39. | :20:49. | |
:20:49. | :20:58. | ||
more money. Perhaps the British were quite clever to keep out of | :20:58. | :21:04. | |
the euro. Our we going to have praise for Gordon Brown now? Not | :21:04. | :21:12. | |
many people do that. I think the global economy itself is in trouble. | :21:12. | :21:16. | |
I say this cynically because Africans, if we do not have these | :21:16. | :21:22. | |
problems of democracy, lack of democracy, in my country we have | :21:22. | :21:27. | |
discovered Africa is full of all of these resources. Europe and the | :21:27. | :21:32. | |
West - their economies are so shattered. Not just the economies, | :21:32. | :21:42. | |
:21:42. | :21:42. | ||
the philosophies they had. And bake in leaders. Exactly. -- and faith. | :21:42. | :21:47. | |
Greece is so small and yet so significant. What it means for | :21:47. | :21:50. | |
Portugal and Ireland and all its other places. We are familiar with | :21:50. | :21:56. | |
the argument. But it seems that have it -- that metaphor about | :21:56. | :22:00. | |
kicking the rat down the road, someone will have to pick it up | :22:00. | :22:10. | |
:22:10. | :22:11. | ||
some time. Greece now seems like an outlier. Things have been quiet the | :22:11. | :22:15. | |
last six or seven weeks. But we need to be clear that it has not -- | :22:15. | :22:20. | |
has nothing to do with what the leaders have done but it has to do | :22:20. | :22:23. | |
with what the ECB did. Offering cheap long-term loans, over one | :22:23. | :22:31. | |
trillion dollars of the last few months, and that has bullied | :22:31. | :22:41. | |
:22:41. | :22:43. | ||
confidence. -- buoyed. I am very cynical about this. Unless the | :22:43. | :22:46. | |
European Union start having one government to govern all fares | :22:46. | :22:54. | |
across all 27 countries, this will continue to happen. -- all affairs. | :22:54. | :22:58. | |
It cannot be that you have one financial discipline in one country | :22:58. | :23:02. | |
and another in another country. History shows that with such a | :23:02. | :23:07. | |
large continent, you cannot say the fiscal situation will be the same | :23:07. | :23:12. | |
in Germany or Greece. You have been infected with what most people in | :23:12. | :23:18. | |
Britain think! I have seen more determination to keep you alive and | :23:18. | :23:23. | |
the willingness to go for the strong European bank. If that | :23:23. | :23:27. | |
happens then the euro will survive. We are wrong to say it will not | :23:27. | :23:32. | |
work. But a strong euro means some will go out. If Greece goes, or | :23:32. | :23:39. | |
perhaps Portugal and Ireland, then Spain and Italy are too big to go. | :23:39. | :23:44. | |
That is a problem. But when those little ones go, they will not go | :23:44. | :23:53. | |
out into darkness. AGEF to be inventive grade two New Row, could | :23:53. | :24:03. | |
:24:03. | :24:06. | ||
be invented. -- a yet to be invented grade two Euro. Everybody | :24:06. | :24:11. | |
talks about the disaster for Greece but if that was to happen, | :24:11. | :24:16. | |
Germany's currency would be revalued and exports would be | :24:16. | :24:23. | |
difficult. 30% is a likely revaluation. Greece would be 40% | :24:23. | :24:28. | |
down. There is a strong reason to keep the euro. But I do not think | :24:28. | :24:38. | |
:24:38. | :24:39. | ||
that means... Why would they not keep it? Partly because of the | :24:39. | :24:47. | |
economic benefits, partly political. For me it is the pride. The pride | :24:47. | :24:54. | |
of Western nations to show they are not finished. When you hear things | :24:54. | :24:58. | |
about how China wants to coming to support them, Russia wants to come | :24:58. | :25:04. | |
in, western Europe had better except they got it wrong. Their | :25:04. | :25:08. | |
whole thinking has gone wrong. That is why you see the Chinese and | :25:08. | :25:12. | |
others coming up. The quicker they accept that and go back to the | :25:12. | :25:18. | |
drawing board and see how we can perhaps be more... A European | :25:18. | :25:22. | |
companies need to be more productive and regain growth. But | :25:22. | :25:27. | |
that is a separate issue from getting the EU are back on track. | :25:27. | :25:36. | |
It just may not survive the way it looks now. The model has not been | :25:36. | :25:46. | |
successful. But actually Germany has been highly successful. If it | :25:46. | :25:51. |