03/03/2012 Dateline London


03/03/2012

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hit by the storms, with some communities completely destroyed. -

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- con -- Kentucky and Indiana. Now it is time for Dateline London.

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Russia goes to the polls, but how far would the return of Vladimir

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Putin to the presidency be welcome? The struggle for Syria. And the

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European Union tries to enforce discipline. My guests Dmitry

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Shishkin of the BBC Russia Service, Francis Matthew of the Gulf News,

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Dr Vincent Magombe of Africa Inform and Henry Chu of the LA Times. As

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prime minister, Vladimir Putin has never been far from power. Should

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we welcome stability in Russia or be concerned that another

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presidency by Vladimir Putin would create instability. The question is

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whether he will win in the first round at the polls the Sunday or

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the second round. The Kremlin is probably eager to win in the first

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round of voting. They will probably face the disdain which started

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after the parliamentary elections. Nothing will change. The country is

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different and changing. The city classes are more robust in what

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they ask from the government. Apparently Putin it will not be

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able to simply use money to charm them. It is about the middle class

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who are not putting any economic changes to the government. It is

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about how they see themselves in the country. To be clear, in terms

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of the fairness of the election. Even though it there have been

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complaints already, is it clear that he would win any way? It is.

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It is a different situation to several years ago when he was

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undeniably the President of the majority of Russians. But steel if

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you go by Moscow and St Petersburg you feel that people do not

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necessarily associate themselves with protest movements. It is all

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about the economy, jobs and well- being. They definitely associate

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themselves with the Putin. One of the things which strikes me is that

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all around the world including the Gulf region is that there has

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always a trade-off between the demand for change, more democracy,

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more freedom and the gut instinct which human beings have for

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stability. That often rules over change. They have to do something

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to improve their lifestyle, to keep people earning money. That is a

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major challenge in Russia. And that is why the dissed content from the

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middle classes is obvious? Yes. will they manage to muster as much

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street presence as necessary? will start to fade as Russia goes

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into the season between late spring and summer. I do not just mean

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opposition politicians, but a group of people not happy with the

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political systems. They need to set themselves up to be involved in the

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political process. Currently it is a motley crew of people who are not

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united. But that is how democracy works, isn't it? Absolutely false -

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- absolutely. I was in Leningrad for ten years, 1980 to 1990. I am

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very familiar with what is happening. It is a bit of a tragedy

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for a Russian people. I see them as being like Uganda. They do not have

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anything like democracy. Even after perestroika when they are modern

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and can set an example of democratic process, they do not. If

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you look carefully, the Russian people do not know what to do. Do

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they put the communists back into power who will then give them no

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freedom or democracy? Or do they stick by someone who is a classic

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dictator, like Putin. One of these days we will see manoeuvres after

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he comes to power. He wants to stay in power as long as he can.

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detector that? We have seen all the tricks that he has used to stay in

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power. I can see what Putin is doing. He thinks, many Russian

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people would rather have me than the communists, so he will do

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anything by paying his way with changes to the constitution. Their

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choice now is not between him and the communists. The communists will

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probably only polled 15%. His main fear or is that things will happen

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such as have happened in the Ukraine and Georgia. What we can

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see in Africa and now in Russia is new generations of people who are

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aware of their rights. Slowly, Putin might think that the movement

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is not strong now. After a while it will be. Just like in my country.

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In Uganda we have tried to take the government off and we think it is

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impossible, but we are trying. wonder about other governments,

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whatever they say about flawed democracy. It is they tear the

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devil you know. They like dealing with people they have dealt within

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the past. -- it is better the devil you know. He then the system that

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Putin would still be in charge of has changed from what I understand.

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It has rotted from corruption and the levels of power he has

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exercised are not what they used to be for him. Potentially two more

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terms, until 2024. It is difficult to imagine somebody being in power

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until then. Robert Mugabe may be to defer. I do not not know if we can

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equate that with stability. Several foreign journalists yesterday,

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including from the Times, spoke to him and he said, let's wait and see

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if I am elected. I do not necessarily want to stay for that

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time. If you look at the type of people who campaign against him,

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they are not typical Ugandans. Mass action for change. In Russia,

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everybody is educated. Many people know how to use the internet and

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other channels. You were talking about the opposition and the new

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generation. Even if he is the next president, is he yesterday's man in

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a sense? That is a balancing needs to strike between pleasing the

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people who still support him and giving something to the angry

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middle class. People in the big cities. A good thing happened to

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his opponents on 5th March. A demonstration was allowed to happen

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in the centre of Moscow, in Pushkin Square. Russians are really afraid

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of anything to do with violence. After 90 years of their history,

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both sides understand that violent methods are not suitable.

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sensitive the his Putin and other people in Russia to what people

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think of them? I think the West has been dealing with Putin based on

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the overall values, like gas. I think it is very practical. Putin

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is very isolationist. He will say anything he wants to say about the

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West because he knows that the West it needs him more than the other

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way around. And we do need gas. The journalists rescued from Syria

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again remind us of the dreadful situation there. The Arab League

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has tried and everyone is very concerned. Much of the world is

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talking with one voice now. It is difficult to see how intervention

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can happen. On people are very angry and there is increasing

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discussed about what the Government has done. Every week another

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hundred people killed. People want to do something, but what? There is

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a rather chaotic political opposition so it is difficult to

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get behind them and push. Divided among themselves, as well.

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Syrian army has held territory, but there is no front line. Is an army

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going to suddenly take on the Syrian army in Syria? The front

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line is between the army and the people and they are making to link.

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As we have seen in Homs where the Free Syria Army has withdrawn. The

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injured British journalists said it was not the Free Syria Army against

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the Syrian army. You should not underestimate the power of the

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people. In that he Libya, everybody said it could not happen. -- in

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Libya. The determination i c a amongst those pro-democracy forces

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in Syria. I personally feel it is so enormous and growing by the day.

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It will be very hard for Assad to sustain his hold on power for the

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long-term, even without external intervention. He may be fighting to

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the last Syrian. There are so many dead now. Hillary Clinton said he

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should be brought up on charges and that will only make him entrenched

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himself further. People are getting pounded and at least in Libya they

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were defections from the army. We are not seeing that on a large

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scale in Syria. In that Libya we did not have Armenian same -- army

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personnel saying they were running things. They our loyal to Assad so

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you are not having the same kind of mass defections. There is no

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political offer it to the Alawites to join them. That is where the

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international community comes in. I think the international community

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can almost forced the negotiation to go one. Kofi Annan and his being

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sent there. I do not know if he can manage it or not. The Alawites have

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a sense that they may get away with it. Depressingly, I think the

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government forces feel they may get through. I do not think they feel

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they are on their last legs. could compare it to Tripoli. Libya

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is different because there you had Benghazi which was rebel territory

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and to Gaddafi control the West. There was an organised push. It was

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fluid. NATO was able to help the rebels become more coherent and arm

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It is easy for us to say they are disorganised and divided. But as we

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see them making great efforts to try to set up the unified command

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and so on, I know there are several governments within the Middle East

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that are quite keen and are perhaps already starting to arm these

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people. Saudi Arabia and Qatar have already done so. There is another

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backlash, they say they are turning it into more of a Sunni opposition.

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But the opposition want support from wherever they can get it. But

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that is money and organisation. If the Arab forces going, that would

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be a problem. Vladimir Putin could offer her President Assad asylum in

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Moscow. Is he going to change? Once he is elected? Will he change in

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any way? I do not been so. I think the recent points of history in

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Russia show you that apart from Afghanistan, which Russia supported

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after 9/11, you have Serbian bombings in the late 90s and also

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obviously Iraq, which Russia did not support and continues to not

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support. Their stance on Syria is very clear. They do not want to

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support anything that will start to look as if the international

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coalition starts to happen. There was this meeting which Russia and

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China boycotted recently. The Russian Foreign Minister actually

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called the meeting something almost the first steps to get something

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happening, a military operation. Does Vladimir Putin not care about

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Arab public opinion? It is interesting because the Russian

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foreign policy be -- towards the Arab world is very strange. It is

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uneven. Russia tries to deal with Israel on one hand and the Arab

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world and another. But you would think that Russia would mimic the

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relationship the Arab Union has with -- the European Union has with

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the Arab world. But Russia is all about domestic policy now. The

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foreign policy in Russia is probably... Russia is operating in

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a certain way. They are doing exactly what the Americans and

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everyone else is doing in international foreign policy. In

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this case, they know very well that the Americans... Recently Americans

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deployed troops. The Russians are doing exactly what the Americans

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would do in certain countries. some of our viewers will say that

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is what the Americans are doing in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain for

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example. And Israel. Yes. It is hard to shield the US from

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criticism. And I am not going to do that. But Russia appeared to be

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stepping back slightly in terms of saying they are not for any kind of

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military intervention. But neither would they prop up Syria militarily.

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So that should be something... they had a bad experience at

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watching NATO get its mandate to save civilian lives. Then it turned

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it into regime change is Libya. And they do not want to be conned again

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in Syria. So if they are going to get a UN resolution, they will want

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to be very specific. Moving on. The European Union summit in Brussels

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saw the signing of a new treaty to enforce fiscal discipline.

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Something agreed by 25 EU countries. Britain and the Czech Republic

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remain on the outside. How fit is Europe now to whether the euros and

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crisis which is still far from being resolved? One of the things I

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noticed, one speaker said in a battle between economics and

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politics, no matter what politicians say, economics will

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always win. Her view was that no matter what you think, Greece will

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be out of the eurozone. If I was in addition, I would say a couple of

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years from now we would have the euro. In a certain way, even if

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people feel confident, look at how much money is being put in every

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month. After a month, they say it has not worked, we need to put in

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more money. Perhaps the British were quite clever to keep out of

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the euro. Our we going to have praise for Gordon Brown now? Not

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many people do that. I think the global economy itself is in trouble.

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I say this cynically because Africans, if we do not have these

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problems of democracy, lack of democracy, in my country we have

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discovered Africa is full of all of these resources. Europe and the

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West - their economies are so shattered. Not just the economies,

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the philosophies they had. And bake in leaders. Exactly. -- and faith.

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Greece is so small and yet so significant. What it means for

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Portugal and Ireland and all its other places. We are familiar with

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the argument. But it seems that have it -- that metaphor about

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kicking the rat down the road, someone will have to pick it up

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some time. Greece now seems like an outlier. Things have been quiet the

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last six or seven weeks. But we need to be clear that it has not --

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has nothing to do with what the leaders have done but it has to do

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with what the ECB did. Offering cheap long-term loans, over one

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trillion dollars of the last few months, and that has bullied

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confidence. -- buoyed. I am very cynical about this. Unless the

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European Union start having one government to govern all fares

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across all 27 countries, this will continue to happen. -- all affairs.

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It cannot be that you have one financial discipline in one country

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and another in another country. History shows that with such a

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large continent, you cannot say the fiscal situation will be the same

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in Germany or Greece. You have been infected with what most people in

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Britain think! I have seen more determination to keep you alive and

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the willingness to go for the strong European bank. If that

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happens then the euro will survive. We are wrong to say it will not

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work. But a strong euro means some will go out. If Greece goes, or

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perhaps Portugal and Ireland, then Spain and Italy are too big to go.

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That is a problem. But when those little ones go, they will not go

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out into darkness. AGEF to be inventive grade two New Row, could

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be invented. -- a yet to be invented grade two Euro. Everybody

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talks about the disaster for Greece but if that was to happen,

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Germany's currency would be revalued and exports would be

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difficult. 30% is a likely revaluation. Greece would be 40%

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down. There is a strong reason to keep the euro. But I do not think

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that means... Why would they not keep it? Partly because of the

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economic benefits, partly political. For me it is the pride. The pride

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of Western nations to show they are not finished. When you hear things

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about how China wants to coming to support them, Russia wants to come

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in, western Europe had better except they got it wrong. Their

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whole thinking has gone wrong. That is why you see the Chinese and

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others coming up. The quicker they accept that and go back to the

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drawing board and see how we can perhaps be more... A European

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companies need to be more productive and regain growth. But

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that is a separate issue from getting the EU are back on track.

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It just may not survive the way it looks now. The model has not been

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successful. But actually Germany has been highly successful. If it

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