Browse content similar to 06/10/2012. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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link. Now it is time for Dateline London, | :00:02. | :00:12. | |
:00:12. | :00:26. | ||
Welcome to Dateline London. The Labour leader Ed Miliband, does he | :00:26. | :00:30. | |
look like a Prime Minister in waiting? What does the shelling | :00:30. | :00:34. | |
across the Turkish-Syrian border mean for the conflict? And Iran, | :00:34. | :00:38. | |
potentially one of the richest countries in the world, in real | :00:38. | :00:42. | |
difficulty of its currency. I am joined by Amir Taheri, Abdel Bari | :00:42. | :00:48. | |
Atwan, Stryker McGuire and Tim Montgomerie. Good to see you. | :00:48. | :00:52. | |
This weekend the British Conservative Party gathers for its | :00:52. | :00:57. | |
annual conference, with one of the party's traditional selling points | :00:57. | :01:01. | |
of competence somewhat undermined by a series of errors including the | :01:01. | :01:06. | |
botched selling of rail franchises. After two years in the job, the | :01:06. | :01:09. | |
Labour leader, Ed Miliband, who has so far failed to connect with many | :01:09. | :01:14. | |
voters, he gave a speech this week and even his opponents could say | :01:14. | :01:18. | |
that it showed a new confidence. Does it feel like a moment when the | :01:18. | :01:23. | |
Labour leader suddenly looks like a possible Prime Minister, a turning | :01:23. | :01:30. | |
point? Do you think Miliband did quite a surprising job this week? | :01:30. | :01:35. | |
He did well. I think people exaggerated how good it was, but | :01:35. | :01:39. | |
the key factor in British politics has been that since the formation | :01:39. | :01:43. | |
of the coalition we have the left of British politics united, the | :01:43. | :01:46. | |
people who normally support the Liberal Democrats of left-wing mind, | :01:46. | :01:52. | |
they are now in the Labour column, and the rights of the Conservative | :01:52. | :01:56. | |
Party is using support to the United Kingdom Independence Party, | :01:56. | :02:00. | |
quite a Euro-sceptic party. In the Thatcher years, the Right was | :02:00. | :02:05. | |
united and the left divided. Labour does not need to do very well in | :02:05. | :02:10. | |
order to become Britain's next government. Ed Miliband was, in a | :02:10. | :02:15. | |
sense, the Tories' secret weapon. We thought he would stop Labour | :02:15. | :02:19. | |
achieving this, because his ratings had been so abysmal, but his | :02:19. | :02:23. | |
performance this week at the Labour Party conference shows that he | :02:23. | :02:25. | |
might cross the minimum threshold to make a Labour government | :02:25. | :02:30. | |
possible. That makes it sound like a dog walking on two legs, it | :02:30. | :02:35. | |
doesn't do it very well but she was surprised he does it at all, so he | :02:35. | :02:39. | |
certainly did better? I think he might have resolved to the | :02:39. | :02:44. | |
leadership question for a while. He was suspect for quite a long time. | :02:44. | :02:51. | |
Now he seems less suspect. One reason he did not have a lot of | :02:51. | :02:55. | |
very active, aggressive opposition from within his own party before | :02:55. | :02:59. | |
was because there was some fear about how Labour would do in the | :02:59. | :03:03. | |
next election, but now it is looking closer the next time around, | :03:03. | :03:08. | |
do you think that, therefore, somebody might emerge to challenge | :03:08. | :03:12. | |
him? I think he is safe. I think most Conservatives would prefer him | :03:12. | :03:17. | |
to be saved, although he did well this week, 3% of the British people | :03:17. | :03:23. | |
think he is strong, 4% think he is charismatic, 5% think he is a | :03:23. | :03:27. | |
natural leader. Even if those ratings have doubled... And 95% of | :03:27. | :03:32. | |
people did not watch the whole speech anyway. But got so pendants | :03:32. | :03:40. | |
will be more positive. To be honest, I will be -- I was surprised. I | :03:40. | :03:45. | |
think he did an extremely... Very good job, to be honest. He was very | :03:45. | :03:49. | |
confident and I liked the way he presented himself, one nation. I | :03:50. | :03:56. | |
love that, it is magic and I believe it will happen. A rare | :03:56. | :04:01. | |
moment of agreement. It is fantastic. He is very promising. It | :04:01. | :04:06. | |
is true, his rating, whether you can fit as a Prime Minister or not, | :04:06. | :04:13. | |
is very low, 25% or something, but we have to remember that he has | :04:13. | :04:19. | |
been in his job far only two years. And he probably has two-and-a-half | :04:19. | :04:24. | |
years... Yes, and he can build on his success. He is young, fresh- | :04:24. | :04:28. | |
faced, I think he will appeal to young people. | :04:28. | :04:34. | |
This is another sign of the present short -- the presidential nature of | :04:34. | :04:38. | |
British politics, which I do not think is good. This speech was good | :04:38. | :04:42. | |
as a performance, but where is the beef? The Labour Party has no | :04:42. | :04:48. | |
policies at all, it is just drifting along. I am not British, | :04:48. | :04:54. | |
as an outsider when I follow British politics I see that Labour | :04:54. | :05:00. | |
always had real political debate. But at the moment it is not. It is | :05:00. | :05:04. | |
all formbook no substance. This is very bad. If the election will | :05:04. | :05:09. | |
happen in two years, we need the opposition to have some concrete | :05:09. | :05:13. | |
alternative to the present coalition so the British can choose | :05:13. | :05:21. | |
on policies, not on whether he speaks well or not. For example, | :05:21. | :05:28. | |
they have been some great operators, but they never win. As you head to | :05:28. | :05:32. | |
the Conservative conference, the competence issue irritates a lot of | :05:32. | :05:37. | |
Conservatives that I have spoken to. Correct me if I am wrong, but most | :05:37. | :05:40. | |
Conservatives think that you might not like us but we can probably add | :05:40. | :05:44. | |
up and get it to work. Suddenly that is not happening, that is | :05:44. | :05:49. | |
quite surprising. Some ministers are doing very well, others are | :05:49. | :05:54. | |
very inexperienced. We have a very centralised system, if you are out | :05:54. | :05:58. | |
of power you have very little experience, and the Conservatives | :05:58. | :06:03. | |
have been out of power for 13 years, just as Labour were for 18 years | :06:03. | :06:08. | |
before that. In American or other systems you have mayors or | :06:08. | :06:12. | |
governors helping you to form a competent administration. With | :06:12. | :06:18. | |
executive power... Yes, and we do not have that. Yes, the coalition | :06:18. | :06:20. | |
government is not performing as well as some people might have | :06:20. | :06:26. | |
hoped, but the general issue is whether the British system, the | :06:26. | :06:30. | |
Civil Service, the competence of ministers, is also quashed a ball. | :06:30. | :06:37. | |
What do you think David Cameron has to do? -- whether it is also | :06:37. | :06:42. | |
questionable. So MP boffin David Cameron is the safest of the | :06:42. | :06:49. | |
leaders? -- has some people think David Cameron is? There is no | :06:49. | :06:55. | |
alternative inside Parliament, I think... The Mayor of London, Boris | :06:55. | :07:02. | |
Johnson! David Cameron needs to focus like a laser beam on the | :07:02. | :07:07. | |
economy. Ed Miliband spoke well but came up with no solutions on the | :07:07. | :07:14. | |
economy... You are expected to say that! I am often happy to give | :07:14. | :07:18. | |
David Cameron epic when I do not think he is performing, but I think | :07:18. | :07:27. | |
that Ed Miliband has no... He does not need one? He will at some point. | :07:27. | :07:31. | |
At the moment he has no plans whatsoever for the British people. | :07:31. | :07:38. | |
He has... He is 10% ahead in the opinion polls, Margaret Thatcher | :07:38. | :07:45. | |
was 20% behind at this stage in her time. We could easily see the | :07:45. | :07:54. | |
Labour leader -- the Labour leader a road as the economy gets better. | :07:54. | :07:59. | |
But the coalition is not working. We can see the Liberal Democrats | :07:59. | :08:06. | |
are not happy, people are deserting them. We have seen Nick Clegg | :08:06. | :08:14. | |
apologising for the student fees. I believe the bad relationship... The | :08:15. | :08:20. | |
coalition is not gelling as it should be, it will reflect badly on | :08:20. | :08:24. | |
both parties. I think what the Government really needs is | :08:24. | :08:28. | |
something they can't manufacture in the short term, good economic news. | :08:28. | :08:33. | |
That has been a problem. I think they expected it by now, and it has | :08:33. | :08:36. | |
not come. In the past few years, Turkey has | :08:36. | :08:40. | |
at last emerged as his stable democracy able to play a bigger | :08:40. | :08:45. | |
role in the Middle East. So how significant has this week been in | :08:45. | :08:48. | |
terms of the future of the region, with the Turkish parliament making | :08:48. | :08:52. | |
clear that Syrian shelling is unacceptable, adding to the | :08:52. | :08:57. | |
pressure on the asset regime. This is a very serious moment in Turkey? | :08:57. | :09:03. | |
It is a very difficult moment, there are clashes on the border. It | :09:03. | :09:07. | |
seems the Syrians are provoking the Turkish government and they are | :09:07. | :09:13. | |
looking for a regional war. They know the Turkish President has a | :09:13. | :09:20. | |
lot to lose if a war broke in that part of the world. He is the 17th | :09:20. | :09:24. | |
strongest economic power in the world, I was there that his party | :09:24. | :09:27. | |
conference, he said in five years we will be Number Ten as the | :09:27. | :09:31. | |
strongest power in the world. He has a lot to lose, but the Syrians | :09:31. | :09:36. | |
have nothing to lose. President Assad is facing a huge war of | :09:36. | :09:41. | |
attrition in his own country. And also the sanctions against Syria. | :09:41. | :09:45. | |
The Turkish role in under minding aside's position is starting to | :09:45. | :09:52. | |
bite, so I believe I sad is trying to drag Turkey into a role for -- | :09:53. | :09:58. | |
into a war. Turkey have turned their back to the Arab world, they | :09:58. | :10:02. | |
don't want to go back, they don't want to lose their economic | :10:02. | :10:07. | |
prosperity... Even though they are a big military power... Exactly, | :10:07. | :10:13. | |
because the growth is 7%. They managed to repay their debts, which | :10:13. | :10:20. | |
was about $35 billion, now it is only $1 billion. If Turkey is drag | :10:20. | :10:28. | |
to a war, they lose everything. They are saying they are capable of | :10:28. | :10:32. | |
defending their pride and their country, but the outcome would be a | :10:32. | :10:37. | |
disaster for Turkey. He wanted a parliament, he got a mandate to | :10:37. | :10:42. | |
fight the Syrians if necessary. The problem is whether he will do it. | :10:42. | :10:46. | |
Personally, I believe he would not, he would lose a lot and President | :10:46. | :10:51. | |
Assad has nothing to lose. I think it is another suicidal move on the | :10:52. | :10:58. | |
part of President Assad. Although you might want to provoke Turkey | :10:58. | :11:04. | |
into a war, in fact he is strengthening the hand of those in | :11:04. | :11:13. | |
Turkey you will want Turkey to intervene in Syria. So far, Turkey | :11:13. | :11:17. | |
is reluctant to become involved in this area. But when you are | :11:17. | :11:23. | |
attacked on a daily basis, public opinion changes. If there is a | :11:23. | :11:28. | |
clash, if the Syrian army is in a very poor shape, in fact they do | :11:28. | :11:32. | |
not think it exists as an army any mall, it has become many different | :11:32. | :11:37. | |
bands, it would not be in a position to resist Turkish | :11:37. | :11:43. | |
intervention. This is a very long border, 822, it has, and Turkey | :11:43. | :11:49. | |
could very easily create safe havens in Syria -- this is a very | :11:49. | :11:57. | |
long border, 822 kilometres. It is a very bad move for the party of | :11:57. | :12:03. | |
Bashar al-Assad. NATO could call and assistance from other NATO | :12:03. | :12:09. | |
countries? Yes, all other members of NATO should come to its defence | :12:09. | :12:15. | |
if any country is attacked by anyone else. So anyone who has any | :12:15. | :12:19. | |
concern at this escalating with wants diplomacy to prevail. I think | :12:19. | :12:24. | |
everybody is aware of the huge Kurdish dimension, which President | :12:24. | :12:31. | |
Assad is deliberately trying to Stoke. To warm the Turkish regime | :12:31. | :12:36. | |
that if they think it will be easy and one-way traffic, and that Syria | :12:36. | :12:40. | |
would be in trouble, Syria is stent -- sending the message that they | :12:40. | :12:45. | |
are trying to stabilise Turkey from inside as well. Syria is backed by | :12:46. | :12:55. | |
Iran, Hezbollah, rush-hour -- rush- hour. We cannot see a serious | :12:55. | :13:00. | |
attack from the Syrian side to the Turkish one. Until now it has been | :13:00. | :13:06. | |
skirmishes, not something serious. But NATO is still involved in | :13:06. | :13:10. | |
Afghanistan. We had a very good X - - bad experience in Iran, I don't | :13:10. | :13:16. | |
think they will be trapped or stop Syria has always been an | :13:16. | :13:19. | |
exceptional case since the Arab Spring began, it has always been | :13:19. | :13:25. | |
different because of these reasons. It is not Tunisia. It is not even | :13:25. | :13:30. | |
Egypt. Egypt was more easily solved. There are so many interconnecting | :13:30. | :13:35. | |
issues here that it is not just about Syria. That is the big | :13:35. | :13:45. | |
:13:45. | :13:58. | ||
So it will start Blackrock Could economic pressure rather only | :13:58. | :14:08. | |
:14:08. | :14:11. | ||
set to force mean negotiation over a nuclear programme? They have not | :14:11. | :14:19. | |
been major demonstrations for some time? We're starting again. They | :14:19. | :14:25. | |
will continue after the presidential election in June. They | :14:25. | :14:34. | |
are ready for the big fight that is coming. The three factions are | :14:34. | :14:42. | |
fighting bitterly for power. The people of an and are beginning to | :14:42. | :14:52. | |
:14:52. | :14:56. | ||
move again. -- iRAN. Losing 40% of the value of your dollar since last | :14:56. | :15:03. | |
year, that seriously undermines any government, does it not? We do not | :15:03. | :15:10. | |
know how much of it is the result of sanctions and how much is | :15:10. | :15:18. | |
deliberate government policy. Who has money in an? It is the | :15:18. | :15:26. | |
government. -- Iran. Because the value of the dollar has risen, | :15:26. | :15:34. | |
government debt has been cut in half. They are making the biggest | :15:34. | :15:42. | |
amount of money in this situation. At the same time, because of cheap | :15:42. | :15:51. | |
imports from China, most of industry disappear it. Wages are | :15:51. | :15:56. | |
higher, but now because it is more expensive to buy Chinese products, | :15:56. | :16:06. | |
:16:06. | :16:11. | ||
they can make them themselves. It works both ways. Iran Is not like | :16:11. | :16:16. | |
Saudi Arabia, dependent on oil. It is more complicated than that is | :16:16. | :16:26. | |
another dimension in the power struggle. They could force him to | :16:26. | :16:35. | |
resign before the end of his turn to humiliate him. There is a chance | :16:35. | :16:39. | |
of putting one of his cronies as candidate in the next election in | :16:39. | :16:44. | |
the hope he could come back. It is much more complicated than the | :16:44. | :16:49. | |
nuclear issue would suggest. I am always aware that whenever we talk | :16:49. | :16:56. | |
about Iranian politics, it is a house of mirrors, but how it is it | :16:56. | :17:05. | |
seen in the rest of the region? Iran is overtaking Israel for many | :17:05. | :17:15. | |
:17:15. | :17:16. | ||
as the major enemy in the region. Two are up to what he said, they | :17:16. | :17:20. | |
have been under sanction for the last five years or so sought the | :17:20. | :17:24. | |
economy is starting to show the effects of this, it is | :17:24. | :17:30. | |
understandable. A lot of the Iranian assets were sold, at around | :17:30. | :17:38. | |
$5 billion. They are financing Hezbollah as well. There are three | :17:38. | :17:47. | |
scenarios of this economic crisis. One is this the people rally around | :17:47. | :17:55. | |
the Mullahs. The second scenario is that this kind of economic crisis | :17:55. | :18:00. | |
will undermine the regime and we could witness a wave of | :18:00. | :18:07. | |
demonstrations and protests. The third scenario is that if these | :18:07. | :18:12. | |
economic sanctions start to bite into the government, the way | :18:12. | :18:17. | |
forward for the government could be to ignite a war. A lot of Iranian | :18:17. | :18:22. | |
officials said that if we realise that we're going to be attacked, we | :18:22. | :18:27. | |
could take the initiative and attack the American bases in the | :18:27. | :18:33. | |
Gulf. We do not know yet but if you corner a cat, it will defend itself. | :18:33. | :18:40. | |
I am scared that this could ignite a war. You're shaking your head | :18:40. | :18:50. | |
:18:50. | :18:52. | ||
about the war there? I don't think Iran we'll do that. They have not | :18:52. | :18:57. | |
attacked anyone for the last 400 years, they have always been the | :18:57. | :19:07. | |
:19:07. | :19:12. | ||
one's attacked. How is all up as a branch of the Iranian government. - | :19:12. | :19:22. | |
:19:22. | :19:23. | ||
- Hezbollah. In eastern Saudi Arabia and among the Shi'ite, this | :19:23. | :19:33. | |
:19:33. | :19:33. | ||
would be unpopular. President Obama has had an interesting week. | :19:33. | :19:40. | |
Interesting! In the Chinese sense. Unemployment, good news. Debate, | :19:40. | :19:50. | |
:19:50. | :19:53. | ||
offal news. -- awful. Iran, Not quite clear, although for many, | :19:53. | :19:59. | |
being patient is working. What is happening with and that it is that | :19:59. | :20:05. | |
the sanctions seeming to date is probably good news for him. We have | :20:05. | :20:09. | |
not Maxene many survey results since the debate. The very few, | :20:09. | :20:14. | |
actually, that tell us about the effect of the debate on the | :20:14. | :20:19. | |
American public. It is not yet clear what the impact was but Obama | :20:19. | :20:26. | |
still looks pretty strong whiff he needs to look strong. It was a | :20:26. | :20:31. | |
surprisingly dull performance from him. In a sense it was surprising, | :20:31. | :20:37. | |
yes, because what we want to remember his Obama during the last | :20:37. | :20:44. | |
campaign four years ago. We remember this Test -- this person | :20:44. | :20:50. | |
with so much passion and conviction. We have not seen that guy in office. | :20:50. | :20:56. | |
He was the future once. He has lacked passion and lacked | :20:56. | :21:06. | |
:21:06. | :21:07. | ||
conviction. He has been quite loyally. -- lawyerly. When Governor | :21:07. | :21:12. | |
Romney was saying something you could see Obama nodding. In a | :21:12. | :21:16. | |
debate on television, it is about soundbites and unfortunately he | :21:16. | :21:22. | |
came across as not really entirely there. Up do you think it matters | :21:22. | :21:26. | |
very much? It must have been great news for Governor Romney having | :21:26. | :21:31. | |
been written off by some of his own side but the you think it matters? | :21:32. | :21:36. | |
Nick Clegg took the nation by storm in the first election debate we | :21:36. | :21:40. | |
ever had in British history but it was a bubble. By the time people | :21:40. | :21:45. | |
voted, that's for rot had gone. What people want from these debates | :21:45. | :21:50. | |
is the want to see the leaders making a big argument and looking | :21:50. | :21:55. | |
like they have some passion. Mitt Romney probably hasn't got right | :21:55. | :22:00. | |
back into the game but it has got a little bit more competitive. What | :22:00. | :22:06. | |
he showed us that he wanted to be competitive. It looked like | :22:06. | :22:10. | |
President Obama was taking things for granted. People never want to | :22:10. | :22:20. | |
be taken for granted and that is the danger for him. It is one of | :22:20. | :22:26. | |
three debates. It is only the first one. Obama usually with his | :22:26. | :22:32. | |
experience would take the last round. That is how I see it. | :22:32. | :22:37. | |
think he should have gone for a knockout in the first one. It is | :22:37. | :22:42. | |
very easy to be in the opposition, usually. We know that Mitt Romney | :22:42. | :22:49. | |
has a lot to lose after the sack up of the 47%, saying that these | :22:49. | :22:59. | |
:22:59. | :23:00. | ||
people do not pay taxes and so on. -- saga. Obama was very polite and | :23:00. | :23:06. | |
not very vigorous and attacking Mitt Romney. As I said, it is very | :23:06. | :23:12. | |
easy to be in the opposition and very easy to point out your | :23:12. | :23:17. | |
opponents's mistakes and try to exploit it. I think the second than | :23:18. | :23:20. | |
beef or debates will be a completely different story and we | :23:20. | :23:30. | |
:23:30. | :23:32. | ||
should wait for that. I think Obama will keep his position. We must | :23:32. | :23:39. | |
remember George Bush looking at his watch during one debate. She just | :23:39. | :23:43. | |
lectures people, he makes his speech. The best thing I heard | :23:43. | :23:51. | |
about Obama was during the Democratic primaries. When there | :23:51. | :24:00. | |
was a crisis, President Obama made his speech. He just made his speech. | :24:00. | :24:04. | |
From British eyes, that is one of the floors of the American system. | :24:04. | :24:08. | |
People talk about senatorial debates but they're just a series | :24:08. | :24:16. | |
of speeches. The American Senate can be a very dull place. They make | :24:16. | :24:20. | |
a speech and that the camera pulls back, it is really just like one | :24:20. | :24:25. | |
person making a speech. Everybody else is at lunch. One thing that | :24:25. | :24:35. | |
Mitt Romney did accomplish with that speech is he had had a lot of | :24:35. | :24:40. | |
people in America, important conservative commentators and | :24:40. | :24:43. | |
analysts and the conservative establishment, really wondering | :24:43. | :24:48. | |
what had gone wrong with Mitt Romney. He has silenced them for at | :24:49. | :24:55. |