06/10/2012 Dateline London


06/10/2012

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link. Now it is time for Dateline London,

:00:02.:00:12.
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Welcome to Dateline London. The Labour leader Ed Miliband, does he

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look like a Prime Minister in waiting? What does the shelling

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across the Turkish-Syrian border mean for the conflict? And Iran,

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potentially one of the richest countries in the world, in real

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difficulty of its currency. I am joined by Amir Taheri, Abdel Bari

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Atwan, Stryker McGuire and Tim Montgomerie. Good to see you.

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This weekend the British Conservative Party gathers for its

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annual conference, with one of the party's traditional selling points

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of competence somewhat undermined by a series of errors including the

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botched selling of rail franchises. After two years in the job, the

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Labour leader, Ed Miliband, who has so far failed to connect with many

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voters, he gave a speech this week and even his opponents could say

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that it showed a new confidence. Does it feel like a moment when the

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Labour leader suddenly looks like a possible Prime Minister, a turning

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point? Do you think Miliband did quite a surprising job this week?

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He did well. I think people exaggerated how good it was, but

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the key factor in British politics has been that since the formation

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of the coalition we have the left of British politics united, the

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people who normally support the Liberal Democrats of left-wing mind,

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they are now in the Labour column, and the rights of the Conservative

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Party is using support to the United Kingdom Independence Party,

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quite a Euro-sceptic party. In the Thatcher years, the Right was

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united and the left divided. Labour does not need to do very well in

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order to become Britain's next government. Ed Miliband was, in a

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sense, the Tories' secret weapon. We thought he would stop Labour

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achieving this, because his ratings had been so abysmal, but his

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performance this week at the Labour Party conference shows that he

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might cross the minimum threshold to make a Labour government

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possible. That makes it sound like a dog walking on two legs, it

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doesn't do it very well but she was surprised he does it at all, so he

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certainly did better? I think he might have resolved to the

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leadership question for a while. He was suspect for quite a long time.

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Now he seems less suspect. One reason he did not have a lot of

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very active, aggressive opposition from within his own party before

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was because there was some fear about how Labour would do in the

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next election, but now it is looking closer the next time around,

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do you think that, therefore, somebody might emerge to challenge

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him? I think he is safe. I think most Conservatives would prefer him

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to be saved, although he did well this week, 3% of the British people

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think he is strong, 4% think he is charismatic, 5% think he is a

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natural leader. Even if those ratings have doubled... And 95% of

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people did not watch the whole speech anyway. But got so pendants

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will be more positive. To be honest, I will be -- I was surprised. I

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think he did an extremely... Very good job, to be honest. He was very

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confident and I liked the way he presented himself, one nation. I

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love that, it is magic and I believe it will happen. A rare

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moment of agreement. It is fantastic. He is very promising. It

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is true, his rating, whether you can fit as a Prime Minister or not,

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is very low, 25% or something, but we have to remember that he has

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been in his job far only two years. And he probably has two-and-a-half

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years... Yes, and he can build on his success. He is young, fresh-

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faced, I think he will appeal to young people.

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This is another sign of the present short -- the presidential nature of

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British politics, which I do not think is good. This speech was good

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as a performance, but where is the beef? The Labour Party has no

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policies at all, it is just drifting along. I am not British,

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as an outsider when I follow British politics I see that Labour

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always had real political debate. But at the moment it is not. It is

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all formbook no substance. This is very bad. If the election will

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happen in two years, we need the opposition to have some concrete

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alternative to the present coalition so the British can choose

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on policies, not on whether he speaks well or not. For example,

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they have been some great operators, but they never win. As you head to

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the Conservative conference, the competence issue irritates a lot of

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Conservatives that I have spoken to. Correct me if I am wrong, but most

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Conservatives think that you might not like us but we can probably add

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up and get it to work. Suddenly that is not happening, that is

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quite surprising. Some ministers are doing very well, others are

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very inexperienced. We have a very centralised system, if you are out

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of power you have very little experience, and the Conservatives

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have been out of power for 13 years, just as Labour were for 18 years

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before that. In American or other systems you have mayors or

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governors helping you to form a competent administration. With

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executive power... Yes, and we do not have that. Yes, the coalition

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government is not performing as well as some people might have

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hoped, but the general issue is whether the British system, the

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Civil Service, the competence of ministers, is also quashed a ball.

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What do you think David Cameron has to do? -- whether it is also

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questionable. So MP boffin David Cameron is the safest of the

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leaders? -- has some people think David Cameron is? There is no

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alternative inside Parliament, I think... The Mayor of London, Boris

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Johnson! David Cameron needs to focus like a laser beam on the

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economy. Ed Miliband spoke well but came up with no solutions on the

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economy... You are expected to say that! I am often happy to give

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David Cameron epic when I do not think he is performing, but I think

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that Ed Miliband has no... He does not need one? He will at some point.

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At the moment he has no plans whatsoever for the British people.

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He has... He is 10% ahead in the opinion polls, Margaret Thatcher

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was 20% behind at this stage in her time. We could easily see the

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Labour leader -- the Labour leader a road as the economy gets better.

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But the coalition is not working. We can see the Liberal Democrats

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are not happy, people are deserting them. We have seen Nick Clegg

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apologising for the student fees. I believe the bad relationship... The

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coalition is not gelling as it should be, it will reflect badly on

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both parties. I think what the Government really needs is

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something they can't manufacture in the short term, good economic news.

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That has been a problem. I think they expected it by now, and it has

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not come. In the past few years, Turkey has

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at last emerged as his stable democracy able to play a bigger

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role in the Middle East. So how significant has this week been in

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terms of the future of the region, with the Turkish parliament making

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clear that Syrian shelling is unacceptable, adding to the

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pressure on the asset regime. This is a very serious moment in Turkey?

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It is a very difficult moment, there are clashes on the border. It

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seems the Syrians are provoking the Turkish government and they are

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looking for a regional war. They know the Turkish President has a

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lot to lose if a war broke in that part of the world. He is the 17th

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strongest economic power in the world, I was there that his party

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conference, he said in five years we will be Number Ten as the

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strongest power in the world. He has a lot to lose, but the Syrians

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have nothing to lose. President Assad is facing a huge war of

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attrition in his own country. And also the sanctions against Syria.

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The Turkish role in under minding aside's position is starting to

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bite, so I believe I sad is trying to drag Turkey into a role for --

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into a war. Turkey have turned their back to the Arab world, they

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don't want to go back, they don't want to lose their economic

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prosperity... Even though they are a big military power... Exactly,

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because the growth is 7%. They managed to repay their debts, which

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was about $35 billion, now it is only $1 billion. If Turkey is drag

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to a war, they lose everything. They are saying they are capable of

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defending their pride and their country, but the outcome would be a

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disaster for Turkey. He wanted a parliament, he got a mandate to

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fight the Syrians if necessary. The problem is whether he will do it.

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Personally, I believe he would not, he would lose a lot and President

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Assad has nothing to lose. I think it is another suicidal move on the

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part of President Assad. Although you might want to provoke Turkey

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into a war, in fact he is strengthening the hand of those in

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Turkey you will want Turkey to intervene in Syria. So far, Turkey

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is reluctant to become involved in this area. But when you are

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attacked on a daily basis, public opinion changes. If there is a

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clash, if the Syrian army is in a very poor shape, in fact they do

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not think it exists as an army any mall, it has become many different

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bands, it would not be in a position to resist Turkish

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intervention. This is a very long border, 822, it has, and Turkey

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could very easily create safe havens in Syria -- this is a very

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long border, 822 kilometres. It is a very bad move for the party of

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Bashar al-Assad. NATO could call and assistance from other NATO

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countries? Yes, all other members of NATO should come to its defence

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if any country is attacked by anyone else. So anyone who has any

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concern at this escalating with wants diplomacy to prevail. I think

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everybody is aware of the huge Kurdish dimension, which President

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Assad is deliberately trying to Stoke. To warm the Turkish regime

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that if they think it will be easy and one-way traffic, and that Syria

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would be in trouble, Syria is stent -- sending the message that they

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are trying to stabilise Turkey from inside as well. Syria is backed by

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Iran, Hezbollah, rush-hour -- rush- hour. We cannot see a serious

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attack from the Syrian side to the Turkish one. Until now it has been

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skirmishes, not something serious. But NATO is still involved in

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Afghanistan. We had a very good X - - bad experience in Iran, I don't

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think they will be trapped or stop Syria has always been an

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exceptional case since the Arab Spring began, it has always been

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different because of these reasons. It is not Tunisia. It is not even

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Egypt. Egypt was more easily solved. There are so many interconnecting

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issues here that it is not just about Syria. That is the big

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So it will start Blackrock Could economic pressure rather only

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:14:08.:14:11.

set to force mean negotiation over a nuclear programme? They have not

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been major demonstrations for some time? We're starting again. They

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will continue after the presidential election in June. They

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are ready for the big fight that is coming. The three factions are

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fighting bitterly for power. The people of an and are beginning to

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:14:52.:14:56.

move again. -- iRAN. Losing 40% of the value of your dollar since last

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year, that seriously undermines any government, does it not? We do not

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know how much of it is the result of sanctions and how much is

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deliberate government policy. Who has money in an? It is the

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government. -- Iran. Because the value of the dollar has risen,

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government debt has been cut in half. They are making the biggest

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amount of money in this situation. At the same time, because of cheap

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imports from China, most of industry disappear it. Wages are

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higher, but now because it is more expensive to buy Chinese products,

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they can make them themselves. It works both ways. Iran Is not like

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Saudi Arabia, dependent on oil. It is more complicated than that is

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another dimension in the power struggle. They could force him to

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resign before the end of his turn to humiliate him. There is a chance

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of putting one of his cronies as candidate in the next election in

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the hope he could come back. It is much more complicated than the

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nuclear issue would suggest. I am always aware that whenever we talk

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about Iranian politics, it is a house of mirrors, but how it is it

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seen in the rest of the region? Iran is overtaking Israel for many

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:17:15.:17:16.

as the major enemy in the region. Two are up to what he said, they

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have been under sanction for the last five years or so sought the

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economy is starting to show the effects of this, it is

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understandable. A lot of the Iranian assets were sold, at around

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$5 billion. They are financing Hezbollah as well. There are three

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scenarios of this economic crisis. One is this the people rally around

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the Mullahs. The second scenario is that this kind of economic crisis

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will undermine the regime and we could witness a wave of

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demonstrations and protests. The third scenario is that if these

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economic sanctions start to bite into the government, the way

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forward for the government could be to ignite a war. A lot of Iranian

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officials said that if we realise that we're going to be attacked, we

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could take the initiative and attack the American bases in the

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Gulf. We do not know yet but if you corner a cat, it will defend itself.

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I am scared that this could ignite a war. You're shaking your head

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about the war there? I don't think Iran we'll do that. They have not

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attacked anyone for the last 400 years, they have always been the

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one's attacked. How is all up as a branch of the Iranian government. -

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- Hezbollah. In eastern Saudi Arabia and among the Shi'ite, this

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would be unpopular. President Obama has had an interesting week.

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Interesting! In the Chinese sense. Unemployment, good news. Debate,

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:19:50.:19:53.

offal news. -- awful. Iran, Not quite clear, although for many,

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being patient is working. What is happening with and that it is that

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the sanctions seeming to date is probably good news for him. We have

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not Maxene many survey results since the debate. The very few,

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actually, that tell us about the effect of the debate on the

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American public. It is not yet clear what the impact was but Obama

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still looks pretty strong whiff he needs to look strong. It was a

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surprisingly dull performance from him. In a sense it was surprising,

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yes, because what we want to remember his Obama during the last

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campaign four years ago. We remember this Test -- this person

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with so much passion and conviction. We have not seen that guy in office.

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He was the future once. He has lacked passion and lacked

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:21:06.:21:07.

conviction. He has been quite loyally. -- lawyerly. When Governor

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Romney was saying something you could see Obama nodding. In a

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debate on television, it is about soundbites and unfortunately he

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came across as not really entirely there. Up do you think it matters

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very much? It must have been great news for Governor Romney having

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been written off by some of his own side but the you think it matters?

:21:32.:21:36.

Nick Clegg took the nation by storm in the first election debate we

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ever had in British history but it was a bubble. By the time people

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voted, that's for rot had gone. What people want from these debates

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is the want to see the leaders making a big argument and looking

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like they have some passion. Mitt Romney probably hasn't got right

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back into the game but it has got a little bit more competitive. What

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he showed us that he wanted to be competitive. It looked like

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President Obama was taking things for granted. People never want to

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be taken for granted and that is the danger for him. It is one of

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three debates. It is only the first one. Obama usually with his

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experience would take the last round. That is how I see it.

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think he should have gone for a knockout in the first one. It is

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very easy to be in the opposition, usually. We know that Mitt Romney

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has a lot to lose after the sack up of the 47%, saying that these

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:22:59.:23:00.

people do not pay taxes and so on. -- saga. Obama was very polite and

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not very vigorous and attacking Mitt Romney. As I said, it is very

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easy to be in the opposition and very easy to point out your

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opponents's mistakes and try to exploit it. I think the second than

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beef or debates will be a completely different story and we

:23:20.:23:30.
:23:30.:23:32.

should wait for that. I think Obama will keep his position. We must

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remember George Bush looking at his watch during one debate. She just

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lectures people, he makes his speech. The best thing I heard

:23:43.:23:51.

about Obama was during the Democratic primaries. When there

:23:51.:24:00.

was a crisis, President Obama made his speech. He just made his speech.

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From British eyes, that is one of the floors of the American system.

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People talk about senatorial debates but they're just a series

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of speeches. The American Senate can be a very dull place. They make

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a speech and that the camera pulls back, it is really just like one

:24:20.:24:25.

person making a speech. Everybody else is at lunch. One thing that

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Mitt Romney did accomplish with that speech is he had had a lot of

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people in America, important conservative commentators and

:24:40.:24:43.

analysts and the conservative establishment, really wondering

:24:43.:24:48.

what had gone wrong with Mitt Romney. He has silenced them for at

:24:49.:24:55.

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