Browse content similar to 10/11/2012. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Welcome to Dateline London. After an election victory for Obama, he | :00:31. | :00:35. | |
pledges the best is yet to come. China's leaders have been meeting | :00:35. | :00:41. | |
to select their next leaders behind closed doors. We will talk about | :00:41. | :00:47. | |
the future of the EU. To discuss this are Polly Toynbee of the | :00:47. | :00:51. | |
Guardian news mother. A Abdel Bari Atwan of Al Quds al Arabia. The | :00:51. | :00:55. | |
John Fisher Burns of the New York Times. -- Guardian newspaper. And | :00:55. | :01:02. | |
also Polly Toynbee who is a writer. What will the result of the | :01:02. | :01:06. | |
American presidential election that mean? What can President Obama | :01:06. | :01:11. | |
deliver in the next four years given the difficulties? What of the | :01:11. | :01:17. | |
Republican Party? What will it take for them to get the keys to 1,600 | :01:17. | :01:21. | |
Pennsylvania Avenue? What did you make of the election result and | :01:21. | :01:30. | |
what happened to both men? There was a 2 million vote difference. | :01:31. | :01:35. | |
That is a big difference. It was a convincing win. That is good for | :01:35. | :01:42. | |
America and for the world. A contested victory would have been | :01:42. | :01:48. | |
troublesome. We will see Obama, like all second-term presidents, | :01:48. | :01:54. | |
relieved of the political pressures on him, some of them. But he faces | :01:54. | :01:59. | |
the Congress which is set against him, least in the House of | :01:59. | :02:05. | |
Representatives. There will be political strife in foreign affairs. | :02:05. | :02:09. | |
Europe will breathe easier and much of the rest of the world, | :02:09. | :02:13. | |
particularly on the issue of Oran. If from the had been elected, we | :02:13. | :02:17. | |
would have seemed more aggressive American policy. -- Iran. That | :02:17. | :02:23. | |
would have caused misgivings. Toynbee, what about those who did | :02:23. | :02:28. | |
not vote for Romney. What did you make of the make-up of the vote for | :02:29. | :02:35. | |
Obama? So sensible Republicans are looking and seeing the future does | :02:35. | :02:40. | |
not look anything like their white middle-aged male vote they rely on. | :02:40. | :02:46. | |
There is not enough to go round. It is going to be more Hispanic, it | :02:46. | :02:51. | |
may mean they turn it to Bush, who would be a candidate who speaks | :02:51. | :02:55. | |
fluent Spanish. Whether speaking the language means speaking the | :02:55. | :03:00. | |
language of the actual people, I do not know. I think they need to go | :03:00. | :03:10. | |
through the total rethink it took. I do not know if they are in the | :03:10. | :03:13. | |
mood. It was encouraging the Republican leader of the House | :03:13. | :03:18. | |
sounded as if he might be willing to have some compromise on the | :03:18. | :03:23. | |
fiscal cliff that is coming up, the immediate crisis. I think if they | :03:23. | :03:29. | |
are really obstructionist after a - - suit soon after the victory for - | :03:29. | :03:34. | |
- so soon after the victory, they will do themselves harm. People can | :03:34. | :03:40. | |
get into a rage. The tea party mood is so ferocious. I am not sure they | :03:40. | :03:45. | |
can get that virus out of this system. Was it the right result for | :03:45. | :03:51. | |
the Middle East? I believe Obama is facing four major issues. The first | :03:51. | :04:00. | |
is sedan. Second, the Iranian nuclear ambition. Then the Israeli | :04:00. | :04:10. | |
:04:10. | :04:15. | ||
conflict. Then terrorism. -- Sudan. Since that, Obama has not got the | :04:15. | :04:22. | |
stomach for war. He said in his speech the decade of war has ended. | :04:22. | :04:27. | |
He also mentioned a very important point about the Middle East when he | :04:27. | :04:34. | |
said we should free ourselves from the Independent on foreign oil. It | :04:34. | :04:40. | |
seems he is looking towards the future. -- from being dependent on | :04:40. | :04:47. | |
foreign oil. He gave a very strong ultimatum in his speech yesterday | :04:47. | :04:56. | |
up to the Congress. I am going to put up taxes and you have to | :04:56. | :05:01. | |
support me. If you do not support me, I will go ahead with it without | :05:01. | :05:06. | |
your approval. I think in the coming four years, he will | :05:06. | :05:11. | |
concentrate more on the economy, especially China. He will overtake | :05:11. | :05:17. | |
-- China will overtake the US as the first economy. What about the | :05:17. | :05:26. | |
relationship between China and America? Obama's re-election is a | :05:26. | :05:32. | |
favoured option for China, not only because China knows Obama for the | :05:32. | :05:38. | |
past four years but because there are or more conciliatory terms with | :05:38. | :05:44. | |
foreign policy. The re-election represented a change we are seeing | :05:44. | :05:53. | |
in America, with demographics. There will be more Hispanic votes. | :05:53. | :05:58. | |
Also, the changing landscape internationally. I was disappointed | :05:58. | :06:03. | |
in some way that foreign policy got very little air during the campaign. | :06:03. | :06:09. | |
I hope Obama will have that second term mandate to be able to go | :06:09. | :06:16. | |
further with it. That is going to change. China will move up in both | :06:16. | :06:23. | |
economic and political positions as well. That will change the dynamics. | :06:23. | :06:29. | |
It will be one of the major issues Obama will have to deal with in his | :06:29. | :06:34. | |
next term as president. I think we need to be wary of the notion there | :06:34. | :06:38. | |
is a shift going on in America as a result of the Democratic of which | :06:38. | :06:46. | |
we spoke, increasing importance of the Hispanic and black vote. | :06:46. | :06:51. | |
have seen before in my lifetime periods when people thought one | :06:51. | :06:55. | |
party or other had established something which would last for a | :06:55. | :07:02. | |
long time, that was the opinion through much of FDR's term in power. | :07:02. | :07:11. | |
Then we had Eisenhower. Many things can change. The most important is | :07:11. | :07:15. | |
if they do not sort out the economic problem, as they said in | :07:15. | :07:23. | |
Clinton's time, the door might be open for the Republicans next time. | :07:23. | :07:30. | |
America is divided now. The major issue which will face Obama, how do | :07:30. | :07:35. | |
you bridge the gap between are the rich and the poor, the white and | :07:35. | :07:42. | |
non-white? It is very important. America is getting less weight and | :07:42. | :07:48. | |
younger. A -- less white. That is not for Obama to do. He said he | :07:48. | :07:52. | |
wanted a coalition and it was impossible. The Republican party | :07:52. | :07:57. | |
was too crazy and extreme. Now if he asked to pursue, as he is, taxes | :07:57. | :08:03. | |
for the rich. Now it he has to pursue. It is for the Republicans | :08:03. | :08:11. | |
to decide whether they will be less crazy. For their own survival, any | :08:11. | :08:16. | |
healthy democracy needs at least two sensible parties. Does it worry | :08:16. | :08:20. | |
you he might be more inward-looking and foreign policy will take a back | :08:20. | :08:27. | |
seat? He does not have a choice. The US is pulled into everything. | :08:27. | :08:32. | |
He will not be pulled into a wall. That is important. A decade of war | :08:32. | :08:41. | |
is over is important. -- into war. He will not intervene in Syria. | :08:41. | :08:47. | |
Lessons have been learned about staying well out of those | :08:47. | :08:50. | |
situations. You might think one of the great | :08:50. | :08:53. | |
accomplishments of Obama was to have got American troops out of | :08:53. | :09:02. | |
Iraq and now have to be getting them out of Afghanistan. I did not | :09:02. | :09:06. | |
get him the -- I did not get the impression that counted heavily in | :09:06. | :09:12. | |
the election. You can understand why he has said the decade of war | :09:12. | :09:17. | |
is over. But it seems to me that issue was overwhelmed by the | :09:17. | :09:23. | |
domestic issues. I think foreign policy rarely blew | :09:23. | :09:28. | |
strongly in elections. Be in the more recent years, American | :09:28. | :09:35. | |
politics has turned inward. That is interesting. There is a major | :09:36. | :09:43. | |
economic crisis for the American government. Similarly, we see | :09:43. | :09:49. | |
Europe turning inward. From the foreign policy side of it, I am | :09:49. | :09:54. | |
hoping the second term will make a difference, although I am not | :09:54. | :10:00. | |
optimistic. A stronger President, is that what is hoped? If he | :10:00. | :10:04. | |
concentrates on domestic issues, what does that mean for the rest of | :10:04. | :10:09. | |
the world and the demographics and the geography of the rest of the | :10:09. | :10:13. | |
world? It will be a disaster for the Middle East. In his first term, | :10:13. | :10:18. | |
he pledged he will solve the Israeli conflict. He said he would | :10:18. | :10:24. | |
enhance the two states solution. Suddenly he could not face that. He | :10:24. | :10:32. | |
withdrew from the Middle East. In 2014, he will pull troops out from | :10:32. | :10:36. | |
Afghanistan. It is too soon. He should play a major role in | :10:36. | :10:44. | |
promoting peace in the Middle East. He should not just shrink and leave | :10:44. | :10:51. | |
everything. They were behind the problems. They were behind the | :10:51. | :10:58. | |
destruction of Libya. No peaceful solution in the Middle East. They | :10:58. | :11:05. | |
cannot say, thank you, I want to concentrate on my domestic issue. | :11:05. | :11:12. | |
They should not do that. We didn't mention China. As China's ruling | :11:12. | :11:16. | |
Communist Party chooses a new leadership, what will the new line- | :11:16. | :11:26. | |
:11:26. | :11:27. | ||
up mean for the rest of the world? It is in some ways an election, but | :11:27. | :11:31. | |
also selection. It is very important for China and also the | :11:31. | :11:38. | |
world, not only because this group of leaders who will stay for the | :11:38. | :11:46. | |
next 10 years, given the recent turmoil induced -- in Chinese | :11:46. | :11:50. | |
politics, the struggles have been intense within the party. We will | :11:50. | :11:55. | |
be looking at an interesting composition of the new committee | :11:55. | :11:59. | |
which is presumed to be seven, rather than nine, members. That | :11:59. | :12:07. | |
will be announced next Thursday. If you look at the 18th party congress, | :12:07. | :12:11. | |
the tone has been conservative. Conservative in China means | :12:12. | :12:20. | |
different things. You have the past president who rose to power being | :12:20. | :12:25. | |
in a prominent position in the opening ceremony. They paid tribute | :12:25. | :12:35. | |
:12:35. | :12:41. | ||
to Mal. He pointed out one-party rule will stay and there will be no | :12:41. | :12:47. | |
foreign Western-style democracy. There will be higher control, | :12:47. | :12:53. | |
alongside pledging the Government will double the income of Chinese | :12:53. | :12:59. | |
in the next 10 years. We are looking at a very interesting time | :12:59. | :13:06. | |
and possibly, from the tone, a Conservative government. Given the | :13:06. | :13:11. | |
language in the speech, what would you expect us to see different from | :13:11. | :13:19. | |
China? If you take that language and read between the lines, as you | :13:19. | :13:22. | |
know, the Chinese selection is unlike American politics, it is | :13:22. | :13:28. | |
done behind doors. We do not know anything, we can only guess. If the | :13:28. | :13:33. | |
Conservatives take majority, we will see tighter control, we will | :13:33. | :13:40. | |
see less market opening up, we will see China as moving more towards a | :13:40. | :13:45. | |
centrally controlled, a more regulated marketplace. That will | :13:45. | :13:52. | |
have a major impact on how China will present itself as the next | :13:52. | :13:56. | |
superpower. In economic relations with Europe. I absolutely. By the | :13:56. | :14:01. | |
end of this year, China will be bigger economically than the | :14:01. | :14:06. | |
eurozone. In four years, bigger than America. We have not begun... | :14:06. | :14:12. | |
It has not entered into a political thinking, we do not know what it | :14:12. | :14:16. | |
means. We are transfixed by. Doubling the income at a time when | :14:16. | :14:23. | |
we are all in desperate straits, that is unthinkable. We look at it | :14:23. | :14:28. | |
and we put it away because we do not know where to place it. I think | :14:28. | :14:34. | |
over the next 10 years, we will have found a different way of being | :14:34. | :14:39. | |
with China and it will have entered our politics. So far, it just sits | :14:39. | :14:45. | |
there as an unknown. Do you think we underestimated? Yes. We're look | :14:45. | :14:50. | |
at China from the eyes of the West. What the West wants from China. It | :14:51. | :15:00. | |
:15:01. | :15:01. | ||
is working for China! Be used to beat number six. After 10 years, it | :15:01. | :15:07. | |
is number two. It will then be number one. It is going up. It is | :15:07. | :15:15. | |
working. We cannot apply the Western system everywhere in the | :15:15. | :15:20. | |
world. People now, the middle class, they are enjoying prosperity. They | :15:20. | :15:27. | |
want to have a say in how they are rolled a how their country is ruled. | :15:27. | :15:34. | |
Their human rights are not rosy in China. But look at the other side. | :15:34. | :15:39. | |
It is a prosperous country. China is emerging as a superpower. Look | :15:39. | :15:43. | |
at the situation in Syria. They have said to America, enough is | :15:43. | :15:48. | |
enough. For the first time, they have used the veto twice in the | :15:48. | :15:52. | |
United Nations Security Council. They have said, we are here and we | :15:52. | :16:02. | |
:16:02. | :16:09. | ||
are a superpower. They will be a A coincidence the leader of America | :16:10. | :16:15. | |
and China chose a at the same time. Was on his entirely transparent and | :16:15. | :16:20. | |
yet catastrophic in the same way, with its balances system producing | :16:20. | :16:25. | |
a blockage in America. The Chinese constitution is utterly opaque, we | :16:25. | :16:31. | |
do not know what happens, people just emerge. And it leaves us | :16:31. | :16:36. | |
transfixed by, what would be the perfect democracy? We do not know. | :16:36. | :16:40. | |
But maybe in 10 years, we will see if China get through without | :16:40. | :16:47. | |
another revolution. I spent a few years in China and Mao and saw the | :16:47. | :16:53. | |
transition to Deng Xiaoping and it is glorious to get which. That was | :16:53. | :16:57. | |
his call. And they have got relatively rich and tens of | :16:57. | :17:02. | |
millions have been moved out of poverty, but many large numbers | :17:02. | :17:08. | |
remain in poverty. The conversation is overlooking the potential for | :17:08. | :17:13. | |
serious internal disturbance, if not upheaval, in China. That is | :17:13. | :17:17. | |
from the disaffected and from the failure in the leadership now since | :17:17. | :17:23. | |
the time of Mao to make serious political reforms. To give you won | :17:24. | :17:29. | |
example, we know from recent reporting that it is likely some | :17:30. | :17:32. | |
members of the Chinese party leadership had seen their families | :17:32. | :17:41. | |
acquire wealth of unimaginable proportions -- proportions, | :17:41. | :17:47. | |
billions of dollars. That cannot stand. And anybody that nosed | :17:47. | :17:51. | |
Chinese history knows it has been moved by peasant rebellions. -- | :17:51. | :17:56. | |
that knows Chinese history. Unless this leadership does something to | :17:56. | :18:02. | |
open up and to become accountable, to deal with the serious social | :18:02. | :18:10. | |
problems, I think China may become destroyed from within, and that | :18:10. | :18:15. | |
would not be good for us, and unstable China. Nor for China's | :18:15. | :18:18. | |
immediate neighbours like India that have border disputes with | :18:18. | :18:23. | |
China and with Japan over the islands. So it is too soon to | :18:23. | :18:28. | |
assume China will emerge from this 10 years of leadership triumph at. | :18:28. | :18:37. | |
I agree. -- triumphant. It is not only the social problem. The is it | :18:37. | :18:42. | |
sustainable to grow double digits for another 10 years? -- Is it. In | :18:42. | :18:48. | |
the speech of Hu Jintao at the opening ceremony, he did stress a | :18:48. | :18:55. | |
great deal about how the party must stand down -- stamp down on | :18:55. | :19:01. | |
corruption. But can a one-party rule system that created this kind | :19:01. | :19:08. | |
of corruption that modify itself and correct that? For the ordinary | :19:08. | :19:13. | |
Chinese, it was a surprise not that for the elite group had accumulated | :19:13. | :19:17. | |
vast amounts of wealth, the surprise was how fast that amount | :19:17. | :19:27. | |
:19:27. | :19:32. | ||
was! -- vast. Is a peasant revolt a possibility? Or is the fear of | :19:32. | :19:36. | |
revolution that too many people have too much to lose, was it a | :19:36. | :19:42. | |
real threat? I think that revolt is possible but I do not see that as | :19:42. | :19:47. | |
the scale of revolution. That could be the reason behind the | :19:47. | :19:52. | |
Conservatives taking control, because it is becoming unstable, so | :19:52. | :19:57. | |
they go back to what worked before, that we have tighter control. | :19:57. | :20:01. | |
the leadership aware of the possibility? Absolutely, in China | :20:01. | :20:05. | |
every week, they compile information from the internet and | :20:05. | :20:10. | |
print it out and everybody reads about it. A in the New York Times, | :20:10. | :20:14. | |
a colleague reported that one of the families of the Chinese leaders | :20:14. | :20:20. | |
had accumulated some think in there order of $2 billion of assets. The | :20:20. | :20:24. | |
New York Times suddenly became inaccessible on the internet in | :20:24. | :20:34. | |
:20:34. | :20:36. | ||
China! But millions read that article. What is the potential for | :20:36. | :20:41. | |
seismic change in China? Maybe over the next decade, because of these | :20:41. | :20:44. | |
things coming together. Particularly people coming out and | :20:44. | :20:50. | |
saying, we have had enough. China, the reform the Chinese | :20:50. | :20:55. | |
government is talking about is a different kind of reform, they are | :20:56. | :21:01. | |
talking about reform within the party and they must address that. | :21:01. | :21:04. | |
Internationally, I see China changing its position, because in | :21:04. | :21:09. | |
the past, although China was growing very fast, it was mostly | :21:09. | :21:14. | |
economic power. And you see that changing already and it will change | :21:14. | :21:20. | |
in the next 10 years. This leadership will certainly flex more | :21:20. | :21:25. | |
muscle when they have that kind of economic and political power. | :21:25. | :21:33. | |
the speech of Hu Jintao, he detected the resentment among the | :21:33. | :21:37. | |
peasants when he said people should declare their assets. And he said, | :21:38. | :21:42. | |
we should concentrate on consumption, not on investment and | :21:42. | :21:47. | |
exports, we should look at the people and make their life better. | :21:47. | :21:53. | |
Look at what happened to Japan, it has had 15, 20 years of * Assist | :21:53. | :21:58. | |
economically. I remember the projections made about political | :21:58. | :22:03. | |
power, the world dominance that would ensue from Japan's rapid rise, | :22:03. | :22:09. | |
when I was still a young man. It did not happen, and part of the | :22:09. | :22:13. | |
reason was they did not reform their economies and shift to an | :22:13. | :22:17. | |
economy that rested on domestic consumption, and I do not see much | :22:17. | :22:22. | |
sign the Chinese leadership in tents or can do that. We are going | :22:22. | :22:26. | |
to read that and will probably come back to it after the leadership has | :22:26. | :22:31. | |
been selected -- we are going to leave that. So more money problems | :22:31. | :22:34. | |
in Europe, this time it is the budget, with the talks collapsing | :22:34. | :22:38. | |
and the UK saying it will use its veto. A summit aimed at reaching a | :22:38. | :22:42. | |
deal on the budget will be held on 22nd and 23rd November, if it goes | :22:42. | :22:52. | |
:22:52. | :22:52. | ||
ahead. What do you make of this? The E E you are asking for more | :22:52. | :22:56. | |
money from countries at a time when countries are struggling to pay off | :22:56. | :23:04. | |
their debts. -- the EU. They are asking for 7% more and it will be a | :23:04. | :23:08. | |
difficult task when you look at what is happening in Greece, Spain, | :23:08. | :23:12. | |
Italy, we are all under tight austerity and the idea that the | :23:12. | :23:17. | |
budget should expand without reforming itself very much. It has | :23:17. | :23:21. | |
reformed slowly the Common Agricultural Policy, it is a | :23:21. | :23:25. | |
monstrosity but has got marginally better, but in this country, the | :23:25. | :23:29. | |
money goes mostly to the Queen and the big landowners, not small | :23:29. | :23:34. | |
farmers to keep them in business. All sorts of things are desperately | :23:34. | :23:37. | |
wrong. He think, why does the parliament travel between | :23:37. | :23:43. | |
Strasbourg and Brussels at vast expanse? -- vast expanse? Just | :23:43. | :23:47. | |
because at the French will not agree to leave Parliament where it | :23:47. | :23:52. | |
is. There are problems there are very expensive so it is difficult | :23:52. | :23:56. | |
to persuade people who do not have money that they should spend more. | :23:56. | :24:01. | |
I do not think the British will be flexible on this. But if David | :24:01. | :24:06. | |
Cameron, if he gets a freeze, he will be low-key, but he will not | :24:06. | :24:15. | |
get a freeze. -- he will be lucky. He might get a face-saving | :24:15. | :24:21. | |
concession. He has a serious problem within his party and I dare | :24:21. | :24:26. | |
say from the opinion polls at with the country in. If he were to | :24:26. | :24:35. | |
retreat from the demand for an effective freeze on the budget, he | :24:35. | :24:45. | |
:24:45. | :24:47. | ||
would find people like you kick advancing on him -- UKIP. He need | :24:47. | :24:51. | |
European Reform and I think this is a red line he will not allowed to | :24:51. | :24:56. | |
be crossed. He will stand firm and I guess a other European leaders | :24:56. | :25:00. | |
will face Wigan that own a lecherous some resistance to this. | :25:00. | :25:06. | |
France and Italy and Spain, certainly. It seems ludicrous. | :25:06. | :25:12. | |
we do seem to be on our own at the moment. It seems ludicrous when | :25:13. | :25:16. | |
austerity is the order of the day, tens of millions are unemployed | :25:16. | :25:24. | |
across Europe, to be talking about 7% increase. So much of that money, | :25:24. | :25:29. | |
although the inefficiencies remain, some of that money is about trying | :25:29. | :25:35. | |
to counter austerity and to use it for investments. Which some people | :25:35. | :25:41. | |
think it's the right thing to do. It would be a lot more palatable if | :25:41. | :25:45. | |
we saw the leaders of the European Union of saying, particularly the | :25:45. | :25:50. | |
commission, saying, we are going to make a good effort to eliminate | :25:50. | :25:56. | |
luxury, no more fice court -- five- course lunches, an end to this | :25:56. | :26:04. | |
commuting and billion-dollar buildings. As a model, do you think | :26:04. | :26:10. | |
the European Union it works? It is struggling. Maybe 10 years ago, I | :26:10. | :26:14. | |
said it was perfect and everybody would like to join it. Turkey is | :26:14. | :26:19. | |
struggling to do so and upset because it was left out. But | :26:19. | :26:25. | |
nowadays, it is not the bright model people fought. For example, | :26:25. | :26:33. | |
growth in Turkey is about 7.5% while Greece is bankrupt, its | :26:33. | :26:39. | |
neighbour. The same thing in Spain and Italy and in Ireland. So it is | :26:39. | :26:44. | |
not. And David Cameron has very few friends in Europe. And he is trying | :26:44. | :26:52. | |
to say, here I am, please talk to me. I think his tactic is worthless | :26:52. | :26:57. | |
and it is not working. We have discussed China and America and a | :26:57. | :27:02. | |
marriage -- and Europe. Thank you for joining us, we look forward to | :27:02. | :27:05. |