10/11/2012 Dateline London


10/11/2012

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Welcome to Dateline London. After an election victory for Obama, he

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pledges the best is yet to come. China's leaders have been meeting

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to select their next leaders behind closed doors. We will talk about

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the future of the EU. To discuss this are Polly Toynbee of the

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Guardian news mother. A Abdel Bari Atwan of Al Quds al Arabia. The

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John Fisher Burns of the New York Times. -- Guardian newspaper. And

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also Polly Toynbee who is a writer. What will the result of the

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American presidential election that mean? What can President Obama

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deliver in the next four years given the difficulties? What of the

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Republican Party? What will it take for them to get the keys to 1,600

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Pennsylvania Avenue? What did you make of the election result and

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what happened to both men? There was a 2 million vote difference.

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That is a big difference. It was a convincing win. That is good for

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America and for the world. A contested victory would have been

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troublesome. We will see Obama, like all second-term presidents,

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relieved of the political pressures on him, some of them. But he faces

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the Congress which is set against him, least in the House of

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Representatives. There will be political strife in foreign affairs.

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Europe will breathe easier and much of the rest of the world,

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particularly on the issue of Oran. If from the had been elected, we

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would have seemed more aggressive American policy. -- Iran. That

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would have caused misgivings. Toynbee, what about those who did

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not vote for Romney. What did you make of the make-up of the vote for

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Obama? So sensible Republicans are looking and seeing the future does

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not look anything like their white middle-aged male vote they rely on.

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There is not enough to go round. It is going to be more Hispanic, it

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may mean they turn it to Bush, who would be a candidate who speaks

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fluent Spanish. Whether speaking the language means speaking the

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language of the actual people, I do not know. I think they need to go

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through the total rethink it took. I do not know if they are in the

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mood. It was encouraging the Republican leader of the House

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sounded as if he might be willing to have some compromise on the

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fiscal cliff that is coming up, the immediate crisis. I think if they

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are really obstructionist after a - - suit soon after the victory for -

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- so soon after the victory, they will do themselves harm. People can

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get into a rage. The tea party mood is so ferocious. I am not sure they

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can get that virus out of this system. Was it the right result for

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the Middle East? I believe Obama is facing four major issues. The first

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is sedan. Second, the Iranian nuclear ambition. Then the Israeli

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conflict. Then terrorism. -- Sudan. Since that, Obama has not got the

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stomach for war. He said in his speech the decade of war has ended.

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He also mentioned a very important point about the Middle East when he

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said we should free ourselves from the Independent on foreign oil. It

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seems he is looking towards the future. -- from being dependent on

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foreign oil. He gave a very strong ultimatum in his speech yesterday

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up to the Congress. I am going to put up taxes and you have to

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support me. If you do not support me, I will go ahead with it without

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your approval. I think in the coming four years, he will

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concentrate more on the economy, especially China. He will overtake

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-- China will overtake the US as the first economy. What about the

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relationship between China and America? Obama's re-election is a

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favoured option for China, not only because China knows Obama for the

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past four years but because there are or more conciliatory terms with

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foreign policy. The re-election represented a change we are seeing

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in America, with demographics. There will be more Hispanic votes.

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Also, the changing landscape internationally. I was disappointed

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in some way that foreign policy got very little air during the campaign.

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I hope Obama will have that second term mandate to be able to go

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further with it. That is going to change. China will move up in both

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economic and political positions as well. That will change the dynamics.

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It will be one of the major issues Obama will have to deal with in his

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next term as president. I think we need to be wary of the notion there

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is a shift going on in America as a result of the Democratic of which

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we spoke, increasing importance of the Hispanic and black vote.

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have seen before in my lifetime periods when people thought one

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party or other had established something which would last for a

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long time, that was the opinion through much of FDR's term in power.

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Then we had Eisenhower. Many things can change. The most important is

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if they do not sort out the economic problem, as they said in

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Clinton's time, the door might be open for the Republicans next time.

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America is divided now. The major issue which will face Obama, how do

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you bridge the gap between are the rich and the poor, the white and

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non-white? It is very important. America is getting less weight and

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younger. A -- less white. That is not for Obama to do. He said he

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wanted a coalition and it was impossible. The Republican party

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was too crazy and extreme. Now if he asked to pursue, as he is, taxes

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for the rich. Now it he has to pursue. It is for the Republicans

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to decide whether they will be less crazy. For their own survival, any

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healthy democracy needs at least two sensible parties. Does it worry

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you he might be more inward-looking and foreign policy will take a back

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seat? He does not have a choice. The US is pulled into everything.

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He will not be pulled into a wall. That is important. A decade of war

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is over is important. -- into war. He will not intervene in Syria.

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Lessons have been learned about staying well out of those

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situations. You might think one of the great

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accomplishments of Obama was to have got American troops out of

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Iraq and now have to be getting them out of Afghanistan. I did not

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get him the -- I did not get the impression that counted heavily in

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the election. You can understand why he has said the decade of war

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is over. But it seems to me that issue was overwhelmed by the

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domestic issues. I think foreign policy rarely blew

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strongly in elections. Be in the more recent years, American

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politics has turned inward. That is interesting. There is a major

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economic crisis for the American government. Similarly, we see

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Europe turning inward. From the foreign policy side of it, I am

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hoping the second term will make a difference, although I am not

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optimistic. A stronger President, is that what is hoped? If he

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concentrates on domestic issues, what does that mean for the rest of

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the world and the demographics and the geography of the rest of the

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world? It will be a disaster for the Middle East. In his first term,

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he pledged he will solve the Israeli conflict. He said he would

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enhance the two states solution. Suddenly he could not face that. He

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withdrew from the Middle East. In 2014, he will pull troops out from

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Afghanistan. It is too soon. He should play a major role in

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promoting peace in the Middle East. He should not just shrink and leave

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everything. They were behind the problems. They were behind the

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destruction of Libya. No peaceful solution in the Middle East. They

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cannot say, thank you, I want to concentrate on my domestic issue.

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They should not do that. We didn't mention China. As China's ruling

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Communist Party chooses a new leadership, what will the new line-

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up mean for the rest of the world? It is in some ways an election, but

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also selection. It is very important for China and also the

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world, not only because this group of leaders who will stay for the

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next 10 years, given the recent turmoil induced -- in Chinese

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politics, the struggles have been intense within the party. We will

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be looking at an interesting composition of the new committee

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which is presumed to be seven, rather than nine, members. That

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will be announced next Thursday. If you look at the 18th party congress,

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the tone has been conservative. Conservative in China means

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different things. You have the past president who rose to power being

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in a prominent position in the opening ceremony. They paid tribute

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to Mal. He pointed out one-party rule will stay and there will be no

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foreign Western-style democracy. There will be higher control,

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alongside pledging the Government will double the income of Chinese

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in the next 10 years. We are looking at a very interesting time

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and possibly, from the tone, a Conservative government. Given the

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language in the speech, what would you expect us to see different from

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China? If you take that language and read between the lines, as you

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know, the Chinese selection is unlike American politics, it is

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done behind doors. We do not know anything, we can only guess. If the

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Conservatives take majority, we will see tighter control, we will

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see less market opening up, we will see China as moving more towards a

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centrally controlled, a more regulated marketplace. That will

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have a major impact on how China will present itself as the next

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superpower. In economic relations with Europe. I absolutely. By the

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end of this year, China will be bigger economically than the

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eurozone. In four years, bigger than America. We have not begun...

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It has not entered into a political thinking, we do not know what it

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means. We are transfixed by. Doubling the income at a time when

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we are all in desperate straits, that is unthinkable. We look at it

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and we put it away because we do not know where to place it. I think

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over the next 10 years, we will have found a different way of being

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with China and it will have entered our politics. So far, it just sits

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there as an unknown. Do you think we underestimated? Yes. We're look

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at China from the eyes of the West. What the West wants from China. It

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is working for China! Be used to beat number six. After 10 years, it

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is number two. It will then be number one. It is going up. It is

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working. We cannot apply the Western system everywhere in the

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world. People now, the middle class, they are enjoying prosperity. They

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want to have a say in how they are rolled a how their country is ruled.

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Their human rights are not rosy in China. But look at the other side.

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It is a prosperous country. China is emerging as a superpower. Look

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at the situation in Syria. They have said to America, enough is

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enough. For the first time, they have used the veto twice in the

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United Nations Security Council. They have said, we are here and we

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are a superpower. They will be a A coincidence the leader of America

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and China chose a at the same time. Was on his entirely transparent and

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yet catastrophic in the same way, with its balances system producing

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a blockage in America. The Chinese constitution is utterly opaque, we

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do not know what happens, people just emerge. And it leaves us

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transfixed by, what would be the perfect democracy? We do not know.

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But maybe in 10 years, we will see if China get through without

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another revolution. I spent a few years in China and Mao and saw the

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transition to Deng Xiaoping and it is glorious to get which. That was

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his call. And they have got relatively rich and tens of

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millions have been moved out of poverty, but many large numbers

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remain in poverty. The conversation is overlooking the potential for

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serious internal disturbance, if not upheaval, in China. That is

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from the disaffected and from the failure in the leadership now since

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the time of Mao to make serious political reforms. To give you won

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example, we know from recent reporting that it is likely some

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members of the Chinese party leadership had seen their families

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acquire wealth of unimaginable proportions -- proportions,

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billions of dollars. That cannot stand. And anybody that nosed

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Chinese history knows it has been moved by peasant rebellions. --

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that knows Chinese history. Unless this leadership does something to

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open up and to become accountable, to deal with the serious social

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problems, I think China may become destroyed from within, and that

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would not be good for us, and unstable China. Nor for China's

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immediate neighbours like India that have border disputes with

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China and with Japan over the islands. So it is too soon to

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assume China will emerge from this 10 years of leadership triumph at.

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I agree. -- triumphant. It is not only the social problem. The is it

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sustainable to grow double digits for another 10 years? -- Is it. In

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the speech of Hu Jintao at the opening ceremony, he did stress a

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great deal about how the party must stand down -- stamp down on

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corruption. But can a one-party rule system that created this kind

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of corruption that modify itself and correct that? For the ordinary

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Chinese, it was a surprise not that for the elite group had accumulated

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vast amounts of wealth, the surprise was how fast that amount

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was! -- vast. Is a peasant revolt a possibility? Or is the fear of

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revolution that too many people have too much to lose, was it a

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real threat? I think that revolt is possible but I do not see that as

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the scale of revolution. That could be the reason behind the

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Conservatives taking control, because it is becoming unstable, so

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they go back to what worked before, that we have tighter control.

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the leadership aware of the possibility? Absolutely, in China

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every week, they compile information from the internet and

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print it out and everybody reads about it. A in the New York Times,

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a colleague reported that one of the families of the Chinese leaders

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had accumulated some think in there order of $2 billion of assets. The

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New York Times suddenly became inaccessible on the internet in

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China! But millions read that article. What is the potential for

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seismic change in China? Maybe over the next decade, because of these

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things coming together. Particularly people coming out and

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saying, we have had enough. China, the reform the Chinese

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government is talking about is a different kind of reform, they are

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talking about reform within the party and they must address that.

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Internationally, I see China changing its position, because in

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the past, although China was growing very fast, it was mostly

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economic power. And you see that changing already and it will change

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in the next 10 years. This leadership will certainly flex more

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muscle when they have that kind of economic and political power.

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the speech of Hu Jintao, he detected the resentment among the

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peasants when he said people should declare their assets. And he said,

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we should concentrate on consumption, not on investment and

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exports, we should look at the people and make their life better.

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Look at what happened to Japan, it has had 15, 20 years of * Assist

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economically. I remember the projections made about political

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power, the world dominance that would ensue from Japan's rapid rise,

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when I was still a young man. It did not happen, and part of the

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reason was they did not reform their economies and shift to an

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economy that rested on domestic consumption, and I do not see much

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sign the Chinese leadership in tents or can do that. We are going

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to read that and will probably come back to it after the leadership has

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been selected -- we are going to leave that. So more money problems

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in Europe, this time it is the budget, with the talks collapsing

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and the UK saying it will use its veto. A summit aimed at reaching a

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deal on the budget will be held on 22nd and 23rd November, if it goes

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ahead. What do you make of this? The E E you are asking for more

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money from countries at a time when countries are struggling to pay off

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their debts. -- the EU. They are asking for 7% more and it will be a

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difficult task when you look at what is happening in Greece, Spain,

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Italy, we are all under tight austerity and the idea that the

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budget should expand without reforming itself very much. It has

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reformed slowly the Common Agricultural Policy, it is a

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monstrosity but has got marginally better, but in this country, the

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money goes mostly to the Queen and the big landowners, not small

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farmers to keep them in business. All sorts of things are desperately

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wrong. He think, why does the parliament travel between

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Strasbourg and Brussels at vast expanse? -- vast expanse? Just

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because at the French will not agree to leave Parliament where it

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is. There are problems there are very expensive so it is difficult

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to persuade people who do not have money that they should spend more.

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I do not think the British will be flexible on this. But if David

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Cameron, if he gets a freeze, he will be low-key, but he will not

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get a freeze. -- he will be lucky. He might get a face-saving

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concession. He has a serious problem within his party and I dare

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say from the opinion polls at with the country in. If he were to

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retreat from the demand for an effective freeze on the budget, he

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would find people like you kick advancing on him -- UKIP. He need

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European Reform and I think this is a red line he will not allowed to

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be crossed. He will stand firm and I guess a other European leaders

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will face Wigan that own a lecherous some resistance to this.

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France and Italy and Spain, certainly. It seems ludicrous.

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we do seem to be on our own at the moment. It seems ludicrous when

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austerity is the order of the day, tens of millions are unemployed

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across Europe, to be talking about 7% increase. So much of that money,

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although the inefficiencies remain, some of that money is about trying

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to counter austerity and to use it for investments. Which some people

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think it's the right thing to do. It would be a lot more palatable if

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we saw the leaders of the European Union of saying, particularly the

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commission, saying, we are going to make a good effort to eliminate

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luxury, no more fice court -- five- course lunches, an end to this

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commuting and billion-dollar buildings. As a model, do you think

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the European Union it works? It is struggling. Maybe 10 years ago, I

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said it was perfect and everybody would like to join it. Turkey is

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struggling to do so and upset because it was left out. But

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nowadays, it is not the bright model people fought. For example,

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growth in Turkey is about 7.5% while Greece is bankrupt, its

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neighbour. The same thing in Spain and Italy and in Ireland. So it is

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not. And David Cameron has very few friends in Europe. And he is trying

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to say, here I am, please talk to me. I think his tactic is worthless

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and it is not working. We have discussed China and America and a

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marriage -- and Europe. Thank you for joining us, we look forward to

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