03/11/2012 Dateline London


03/11/2012

Similar Content

Browse content similar to 03/11/2012. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!

Transcript


LineFromTo

television. I will be back at 1 Welcome to the programme. Two big

:00:27.:00:34.

topics today, the future of the United States under Mitt Romney or

:00:34.:00:41.

Barack Obama. And Angela Merkel meets with David Cameron and there

:00:42.:00:49.

could be a wrangle over the EU budget. Welcome to my guests. Very

:00:49.:00:54.

good to see you. The United States' first. After one of the worst

:00:54.:00:59.

storms on the eastern seaboard, campaign plans have been rewritten

:00:59.:01:04.

in the nasty days before Tuesday's election. It is still neck-and-neck.

:01:04.:01:10.

What difference could Mitt Romney make? How serious his partisanship

:01:10.:01:16.

over the economy? Is the world's great superpower likely to be less

:01:16.:01:20.

important, whoever wins? With Mitt Romney himself, what difference

:01:20.:01:25.

would it make domestically, for example with his views on the

:01:25.:01:31.

economy? He has been attacking towards the centre in this campaign.

:01:31.:01:37.

I think that could be a good sign. There is a lot of middle ground

:01:37.:01:42.

that both candidates have to appeal to. But I think Mitt Romney would

:01:42.:01:48.

make a difference in terms of domestic policy. He has about two

:01:49.:01:52.

repeal healthcare legislation that President Obama put in which was

:01:52.:01:57.

his single achievement as governor of Massachusetts. That would be one

:01:57.:02:05.

important thing. Possibly abortion rights and health. As well as some

:02:05.:02:10.

financial reforms that have been put in. I think we could actually

:02:10.:02:17.

see quite a change under Mitt Romney. It is clear that he is a

:02:17.:02:24.

business man. But on social issues, do you think he actually cares? On

:02:24.:02:31.

a portion, does he talk about it but not too much about it? --

:02:31.:02:38.

abortion. He has made noises throughout the campaign,

:02:38.:02:45.

particularly to secured his nomination. He will still have a

:02:45.:02:49.

constituency within Congress that he has to actually catered to and

:02:49.:02:56.

for some of them it is important. You have been in Washington for a

:02:56.:03:02.

while. What difference could he make? A big difference in terms of

:03:02.:03:10.

having only a one-term President and the legacy of the first

:03:10.:03:17.

African-American President. On the ground, domestic policy remains the

:03:17.:03:23.

economy. Healthcare is the issue which has dominated a knot of the

:03:23.:03:29.

President Obama administration. It is all about what it stands for and

:03:29.:03:35.

how society is going and they might want to repeal that. On the outside

:03:35.:03:40.

world, looking at what Mitt Romney or Barack Obama would do and what

:03:40.:03:44.

it would mean for foreign policy and international affairs, we are

:03:44.:03:50.

waiting to see what would happen in Syria after the election. The same

:03:50.:03:54.

goes for the Middle East peace process. And wider relations with

:03:54.:04:00.

China. It would be a sort of a shift even though there is a

:04:00.:04:06.

consistency. We will come to foreign policy in more detail in a

:04:06.:04:14.

moment. Domestically, the economy and healthcare are important issues.

:04:14.:04:18.

The issue is that Mitt Romney understands the problem and it is

:04:18.:04:24.

not just an issue which the United States that all Western democracies.

:04:24.:04:27.

There is an assumption in the centre ground of politics that you

:04:27.:04:33.

can have a free-market economy, supported by an entitlement society.

:04:33.:04:38.

That is the problem in the 21st century for Western democracies.

:04:38.:04:45.

They are trying to finance social democratic entitlement programmes

:04:45.:04:49.

and with the Treasury receipts produced by a free-market economy

:04:49.:04:56.

and it cannot be done and it is not affordable. Does Mitt Romney

:04:56.:05:04.

understand that? They are going to be a joint ticket. We have looked

:05:04.:05:08.

at the alternative Budget. There is an understanding of the fiscal

:05:08.:05:12.

problem. With a Mitt Romney administration, they will come to

:05:12.:05:17.

grips with that in a way that Europe ought to. The real

:05:17.:05:22.

difference is that Barack Obama is bizarrely, because America is

:05:22.:05:27.

usually 20 years ahead but they seem to be 20 years behind, trying

:05:27.:05:31.

to sleepwalk into exactly the dilemma Western Europe has got

:05:31.:05:36.

which is an unaffordable entitlements programme. There are

:05:36.:05:42.

political choices. Barack Obama said he wanted defence spending to

:05:42.:05:49.

get up to 4% per year. Is that affordable? We have had a platform

:05:49.:05:54.

for tax cuts and the regulation. Defence spending can be increased

:05:54.:05:59.

and can be cut by the federal government. But with entitlement

:05:59.:06:04.

programmes, when people come to expect universal entitlements,

:06:04.:06:08.

which almost half the population now expect and depends upon, that

:06:08.:06:14.

is a political problem. That has to be faced. Some people take it is a

:06:14.:06:20.

political solution. Not if it is unaffordable. What is happening in

:06:20.:06:26.

Europe is that we are moving away from democracy and into a socialism

:06:26.:06:31.

and planned economy. A command economy. A democratic socialist

:06:31.:06:34.

thing does not work. You cannot have this free market supporting

:06:34.:06:43.

the Socialist programme. We will come to that later. What about

:06:43.:06:50.

Russia? We have got my great to clear use it. Jobs and the economy

:06:50.:06:59.

are the main issues. -- two clear views. The extent of the problem is

:06:59.:07:06.

such a big one. Sometimes you start doing something else but the real

:07:06.:07:13.

issue is jobs. How will it be seen in Russia? Historically, the

:07:13.:07:17.

Kremlin would prefer to deal with republicans rather than Democrats.

:07:17.:07:26.

They prefer the tougher stance Washington would take. It would be

:07:26.:07:32.

better to take an even tougher stance. The Kremlin is never quite

:07:32.:07:36.

sure how to deal with people that want to be nice to you like Barack

:07:36.:07:46.

Obama, for example. Ingenious argument! He is a political foe,

:07:46.:07:53.

regardless of whether he was treated properly or not.

:07:53.:07:57.

President Obama missed a trick in saying that Mitt Romney gets

:07:57.:08:04.

Vladimir Putin's vote? It is not high on the agenda. I agree that

:08:05.:08:08.

China and Syria will be important and Russia would like to be high on

:08:08.:08:14.

the American agenda but in reality... And the question at the

:08:14.:08:18.

beginning, will America be as important as it was in the last 30

:08:18.:08:22.

years? There is a distinction between as powerful and as

:08:22.:08:27.

important. We have got the rise of other countries like China, India,

:08:27.:08:34.

Brazil. But it we are looking in 30 years at two major powers like the

:08:34.:08:41.

US and China, I think it will actually still be right up there.

:08:41.:08:44.

One country his arm democratically run and elected and you need the

:08:44.:08:51.

counterbalance. -- not democratically run. And perhaps all

:08:51.:09:00.

of you see and people seem To forget, we have had a grisette

:09:00.:09:10.

emphasis on troops going into Asia and Australia. Do you see that

:09:10.:09:17.

whoever is President, that is going to continue in the Pacific? At that

:09:17.:09:24.

will continue, in the shipping lanes in the South China Sea. But

:09:24.:09:29.

you do have differences in approach in China. Mitt Romney seems more

:09:29.:09:35.

confrontational and will take it to China. He said that he will

:09:35.:09:45.
:09:45.:09:46.

declare... Unlike the United States. China is doing a particular thing

:09:46.:09:51.

that with the dollar at the moment. The danger is that he could

:09:51.:09:55.

precipitate a trading war which could be very serious because of

:09:55.:10:00.

the cheap goods coming from China into America. Is there partly some

:10:00.:10:04.

disappointment after the speech in the Middle East, but broadly in the

:10:04.:10:12.

Middle East, the sort of thing Mitt Romney is talking about his...

:10:12.:10:21.

Events of the last couple of years have changed. Events are taking

:10:21.:10:26.

speed in a way that nobody could have expected. There are certain

:10:26.:10:31.

things. In Afghanistan it is strange how few people have spoken

:10:31.:10:41.

about that in the campaign. There is a 2014 deadline for withdrawal.

:10:41.:10:46.

For the issues of Israel and Iran, in Israel we almost had a love fest

:10:46.:10:51.

during the election season. There is not that much difference but in

:10:51.:10:55.

Iran there is a sense that with a bit wrong the there will be a more

:10:55.:11:00.

focused stance than he would have with President Obama. His advisers

:11:00.:11:06.

are quite clear, people like John Bolton, they are very hawkish. They

:11:06.:11:13.

believe in a military strike. of the things interesting about

:11:13.:11:21.

President Obama's foreign policy is the incident in Libya. At the

:11:21.:11:24.

consequences for foreign policy with the murder of the ambassador

:11:24.:11:28.

and the fact that this was a planned terrorist attack and not as

:11:28.:11:35.

was claimed that his was spontaneous. -- it was spontaneous.

:11:35.:11:40.

It looked like he had smashed Al- Qaeda once he had killed Osama bin

:11:40.:11:46.

Laden but that has gone and disintegrated. What is left of his

:11:46.:11:53.

claims to have succeeded in terms of the terrorist threat? It is not

:11:53.:12:00.

anywhere near smashed. Even if they have killed Osama bin Laden the

:12:00.:12:04.

ideology remains. But it was very politicised and they have had to

:12:04.:12:12.

step back, because it was about who knew what. They could have spoken

:12:12.:12:22.
:12:22.:12:22.

more about... The other big thing that is kind of obvious is that

:12:22.:12:31.

whoever is elected, it is also the Senate would be one way and

:12:31.:12:35.

Congress would be another and this year it has not been great. They

:12:35.:12:40.

will say, if they win, let's all pull together and it will be

:12:40.:12:47.

difficult. It is difficult to avoid gridlock. President Clinton did. He

:12:47.:12:50.

really did go bipartisan and abolished the federal welfare

:12:50.:12:56.

programme and did a lot of things Republican Congress wanted. With

:12:56.:13:01.

President Obama in 2010, he did not. He alienated the Republican

:13:01.:13:06.

Congress and he has not been able to get budgets past. Would he

:13:06.:13:14.

become more bipartisan? Unlikely. If he was re-elected I think he

:13:14.:13:18.

would actually have learned from some of his mistakes. Bill Clinton

:13:18.:13:23.

is not the best example because he faced off and had a government

:13:23.:13:30.

shutdown. And for Bill Clinton in particular, he was more successful

:13:30.:13:33.

and more popular facing down Republican Congress than he was

:13:33.:13:40.

working with Democrats who he felt undermined him. And he met the

:13:40.:13:45.

Republicans halfway. Whatever happens in the United States, we

:13:46.:13:53.

have got a suggestion of a fiscal cliff. We have got problems with a

:13:53.:13:57.

suggested a lame-duck Congress. We have under reported outside his

:13:57.:14:04.

nation of how difficult it can be. The important thing is the legacy

:14:04.:14:10.

of the first term. Four years ago, there was this sentiment of hope

:14:10.:14:18.

and that things might change and how America would almost book form

:14:18.:14:21.

on the international stage but perceptions have changed. --

:14:21.:14:28.

perform. The majority of the population in many countries would

:14:28.:14:33.

prefer to have a right to vote and they all would vote for President

:14:33.:14:38.

Obama because he still carries this hope. Whether that is correct or

:14:38.:14:48.
:14:48.:14:50.

Does anyone think that the way President Obama has handled the

:14:50.:14:55.

hurricane has helped him? I do not think it has hurt him but perhaps

:14:55.:15:03.

has not produced the bounce they could have been hoping for. I think

:15:03.:15:08.

Governor Christie of New Jersey, after so many attacks on President

:15:08.:15:13.

Obama, to stand up and say he has had the good job, that was quite a

:15:13.:15:23.
:15:23.:15:24.

moment. Two years somebody saying that he's done a good job. I did

:15:24.:15:31.

not think that there was anything, the kind of electrifying moment

:15:31.:15:37.

that he might have had, like George Bush with the megaphone, that did

:15:37.:15:43.

not happen. He does not do a motion. So why do not think it has made any

:15:43.:15:51.

difference. I was on a break last week in Barcelona and watching

:15:51.:15:57.

television and from the way the news was reported, it seemed to be

:15:57.:16:02.

that President Obama was taking care of things there and then. That

:16:02.:16:09.

impressed me. It is very much the world media. I was watching the

:16:09.:16:14.

American media and it did not have that feeling. David Cameron and

:16:14.:16:16.

Angela Merkel have quite a bit in common, instinctive fiscal

:16:16.:16:22.

conservatives, practitioners of austerity. Yet as they meet this

:16:22.:16:25.

week ahead of the big European summit on the budget later this

:16:25.:16:27.

month, their common cause over cutting spending is undermined by

:16:27.:16:29.

one simple fact. Germany's world role depends on being at the centre

:16:29.:16:32.

of the European Union. Britain, especially after a major defeat for

:16:32.:16:35.

Mr Cameron in parliament this week, is on the fringes, and may move

:16:35.:16:41.

outside. Is it crunch time for Britain in Europe? You would think

:16:41.:16:45.

that because of the fiscal conservatism and where they both

:16:45.:16:49.

come from, if any country's Good Corporate, they should be able to

:16:49.:16:54.

do it on this budget matter. trouble is the structure of the

:16:54.:16:58.

European Union makes that almost impossible. If Angela Merkel wants

:16:58.:17:04.

to respond to her own electorate, and David Cameron wants to respond

:17:04.:17:13.

to his, which is perfectly appropriate, then they have to put

:17:13.:17:17.

the national interests of their own countries ahead of the structure

:17:17.:17:22.

which is supposed to supersede those nation-states. That is the

:17:23.:17:26.

contradiction of the European Union. This problem will solve itself

:17:26.:17:33.

because that union has become untenable. So not just Britain

:17:33.:17:38.

believing, it is all going to fall apart?! It is all going to fall

:17:38.:17:46.

apart! Some might call that wishful thinking. Last week I was reading a

:17:47.:17:55.

note saying that the European Union, the way they want to tackle the

:17:55.:18:02.

problems in place 20, 30, 40 years ago, they want to apply the logic

:18:02.:18:08.

of today to something completely irrelevant. It was a time of post-

:18:08.:18:18.
:18:18.:18:19.

war food shortages. Exactly. It is essentially something socialist.

:18:19.:18:24.

Perhaps they need a bigger budget in order to rethink! I think they

:18:24.:18:30.

might need it for something else. The European Union was expanding in

:18:30.:18:35.

the past decade, that is another question. I think they need to beat

:18:35.:18:40.

realistic about what they want to do. The thing is that people have

:18:40.:18:48.

to speak to their own electorate. But in some ways the German

:18:48.:18:51.

electorate is similar to the British, they do not like paying

:18:51.:18:57.

taxes for other people in particular. But the distinction is

:18:57.:19:01.

they want Europe to succeed. They are completely signed up to the

:19:01.:19:05.

European experiment. That is not to say they are in favour of how it

:19:05.:19:09.

works out mechanically, but conceptually they are in favour of

:19:09.:19:16.

it. That is how they exercise their influence. What I found curious

:19:16.:19:20.

about Britain is that you hear about the possibility of Britain

:19:20.:19:25.

was drawing eventually, a referendum. I have yet to hear

:19:25.:19:32.

anyone make an argument for Europe over here. But plenty of

:19:32.:19:41.

politicians say they are pro-Europe. Business people to say that they

:19:41.:19:44.

have problems in its but they would prefer to be in it because it is a

:19:44.:19:50.

big market. And it is one currency for a lot of people. Small

:19:50.:19:55.

businesses do not want it. But the big corporations do because they

:19:55.:20:00.

want a corporate universe. We will have to see what happens with the

:20:00.:20:06.

Scottish referendum. But politically, and on the world stage,

:20:06.:20:11.

it is important for Britain to remain within it. But it is going

:20:11.:20:15.

through an incredible economic crisis and crisis of identity.

:20:15.:20:20.

Britain wants to say we still have the pound, we are still strong. It

:20:20.:20:25.

remains to be seen if the European Union can survive that Euro crisis.

:20:25.:20:31.

And that is something that Britain wants to stay away from. If we did

:20:31.:20:38.

not have that euro crisis it would be so much less politicised. What

:20:38.:20:41.

about David Cameron and the Conservative Party. Ed Miliband

:20:41.:20:47.

also on the Labour Party quite interesting. But Ed Miliband says

:20:47.:20:57.
:20:57.:20:58.

you are John Major all over again, you cannot control your party.

:20:58.:21:02.

Obviously he is scoring a political point that is useful to him. But

:21:02.:21:07.

this business about you cannot control your party. It is not a

:21:07.:21:13.

bunch of lunatic right fringe areas within the party saying this. In

:21:13.:21:20.

fact it is the majority of the population saying this. The

:21:20.:21:23.

majority actually think we would be better off outside the European

:21:23.:21:28.

Union. This has become mainstream. So when David Cameron said he was

:21:28.:21:32.

going to overall that section of his party, he's saying he is going

:21:32.:21:37.

to overall popular opinion. That is a funny thing for a Prime Minister

:21:37.:21:43.

to say. It is interesting about the opinion polls, that many would like

:21:43.:21:47.

to leave the European Union. But they want to travel to Spain on the

:21:47.:21:55.

holidays and keep losing money on the exchange rate. They have to

:21:55.:22:00.

change their money now. There wondering why their benefits are

:22:00.:22:07.

being cut whereas the European Union budget is not. There are also

:22:07.:22:10.

aware that there are droves of French people swimming across the

:22:10.:22:20.
:22:20.:22:20.

Channel to reach Britain to escape the 27% tax rate! Post 2015 when

:22:20.:22:27.

Britain could be out of European Union, Scotland out of Britain, no

:22:27.:22:31.

longer being in the permanent five of the Security Council of the

:22:31.:22:41.
:22:41.:22:43.

United Nations...? Why we did not be in the Security Council?

:22:43.:22:48.

Scotland would no longer be part of the UK. That is interesting. The

:22:49.:22:52.

argument that without Europe, Britain has no role in the world.

:22:52.:22:57.

It has always had a strong role in the world far go because of its

:22:57.:23:02.

alliance with America. Partly because of its history. So I do not

:23:02.:23:06.

think in terms of world influence that would be a problem. On the

:23:06.:23:09.

contrary I think it would be lost and diluted if it was to get

:23:09.:23:14.

swamped by its membership of the European Union. I do not think that

:23:14.:23:19.

it would be swamped. But if it chose to opt out of the European

:23:20.:23:29.

Union then there is an alliance with Germany, and that talks with

:23:29.:23:33.

the Iranians were so strong because it was Britain, Germany and France.

:23:33.:23:38.

That cannot be underestimated. lot of people in Germany would like

:23:38.:23:42.

to see Germany opt out and deal that would be the solution to the

:23:42.:23:52.
:23:52.:23:53.

economic crisis. The other side of the argument is that the European

:23:53.:24:00.

Union without Britain is also hobbled itself. It will have a

:24:00.:24:05.

lessening of influence without Britain. If they were to lose a

:24:05.:24:07.

seat on the Security Council I think a lot of their global

:24:08.:24:14.

influence actually would decrease. That is why �350 million was

:24:14.:24:18.

announced for pride -- for Trident and the whole idea of nuclear

:24:18.:24:26.

weapons. In terms of how that vote, the views of the British people,

:24:26.:24:30.

but in terms of David Cameron talking to Angela Merkel and then

:24:30.:24:37.

threatening to veto on the budget negotiations, how has that

:24:37.:24:42.

strengthened David Cameron's position? I think the narrative is

:24:42.:24:46.

he has not been able to exercise the kind of discipline that he

:24:46.:24:52.

ought to us party leader. Because he is ahead of the party. Addis

:24:52.:24:56.

Ababa has to be able to keep people in line. He is not going to get

:24:56.:25:02.

what he wants, regardless. Soak exercising a veto is actually the

:25:02.:25:07.

right way to go, domestically. of the complexes is that if he uses

:25:07.:25:14.

the veto and chilly Britain's contributions could go up. It also

:25:14.:25:18.

helps negotiations with Angela Merkel and others saying, look what

:25:18.:25:24.

I am dealing with domestically, you have to give me some leeway. What

:25:24.:25:27.

might have been more sensible would be perhaps to see, we are a great

:25:27.:25:33.

party, let us have a free vote on this. Because actually many more

:25:33.:25:39.

people could not face going into the lobby with the Labour Party.

:25:39.:25:45.

Then I think the whole party would walk out from under him! At what

:25:45.:25:49.

did you make of what Labour did? Clearly it was a move to embarrass

:25:49.:25:54.

the government but does it also suggest a political consensus?

:25:54.:26:01.

and No. It was wildly opportunistic. He wanted to embarrass Cameron by

:26:01.:26:05.

making the boat as large as possible. But there are a lot of

:26:05.:26:09.

Labour voters who appeal as Euro- sceptic as any of the Tories.

:26:09.:26:12.

That's it for Dateline London for this week. We'll be back next week

:26:13.:26:15.

Download Subtitles

SRT

ASS