Browse content similar to 03/11/2012. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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television. I will be back at 1 Welcome to the programme. Two big | :00:27. | :00:34. | |
topics today, the future of the United States under Mitt Romney or | :00:34. | :00:41. | |
Barack Obama. And Angela Merkel meets with David Cameron and there | :00:42. | :00:49. | |
could be a wrangle over the EU budget. Welcome to my guests. Very | :00:49. | :00:54. | |
good to see you. The United States' first. After one of the worst | :00:54. | :00:59. | |
storms on the eastern seaboard, campaign plans have been rewritten | :00:59. | :01:04. | |
in the nasty days before Tuesday's election. It is still neck-and-neck. | :01:04. | :01:10. | |
What difference could Mitt Romney make? How serious his partisanship | :01:10. | :01:16. | |
over the economy? Is the world's great superpower likely to be less | :01:16. | :01:20. | |
important, whoever wins? With Mitt Romney himself, what difference | :01:20. | :01:25. | |
would it make domestically, for example with his views on the | :01:25. | :01:31. | |
economy? He has been attacking towards the centre in this campaign. | :01:31. | :01:37. | |
I think that could be a good sign. There is a lot of middle ground | :01:37. | :01:42. | |
that both candidates have to appeal to. But I think Mitt Romney would | :01:42. | :01:48. | |
make a difference in terms of domestic policy. He has about two | :01:49. | :01:52. | |
repeal healthcare legislation that President Obama put in which was | :01:52. | :01:57. | |
his single achievement as governor of Massachusetts. That would be one | :01:57. | :02:05. | |
important thing. Possibly abortion rights and health. As well as some | :02:05. | :02:10. | |
financial reforms that have been put in. I think we could actually | :02:10. | :02:17. | |
see quite a change under Mitt Romney. It is clear that he is a | :02:17. | :02:24. | |
business man. But on social issues, do you think he actually cares? On | :02:24. | :02:31. | |
a portion, does he talk about it but not too much about it? -- | :02:31. | :02:38. | |
abortion. He has made noises throughout the campaign, | :02:38. | :02:45. | |
particularly to secured his nomination. He will still have a | :02:45. | :02:49. | |
constituency within Congress that he has to actually catered to and | :02:49. | :02:56. | |
for some of them it is important. You have been in Washington for a | :02:56. | :03:02. | |
while. What difference could he make? A big difference in terms of | :03:02. | :03:10. | |
having only a one-term President and the legacy of the first | :03:10. | :03:17. | |
African-American President. On the ground, domestic policy remains the | :03:17. | :03:23. | |
economy. Healthcare is the issue which has dominated a knot of the | :03:23. | :03:29. | |
President Obama administration. It is all about what it stands for and | :03:29. | :03:35. | |
how society is going and they might want to repeal that. On the outside | :03:35. | :03:40. | |
world, looking at what Mitt Romney or Barack Obama would do and what | :03:40. | :03:44. | |
it would mean for foreign policy and international affairs, we are | :03:44. | :03:50. | |
waiting to see what would happen in Syria after the election. The same | :03:50. | :03:54. | |
goes for the Middle East peace process. And wider relations with | :03:54. | :04:00. | |
China. It would be a sort of a shift even though there is a | :04:00. | :04:06. | |
consistency. We will come to foreign policy in more detail in a | :04:06. | :04:14. | |
moment. Domestically, the economy and healthcare are important issues. | :04:14. | :04:18. | |
The issue is that Mitt Romney understands the problem and it is | :04:18. | :04:24. | |
not just an issue which the United States that all Western democracies. | :04:24. | :04:27. | |
There is an assumption in the centre ground of politics that you | :04:27. | :04:33. | |
can have a free-market economy, supported by an entitlement society. | :04:33. | :04:38. | |
That is the problem in the 21st century for Western democracies. | :04:38. | :04:45. | |
They are trying to finance social democratic entitlement programmes | :04:45. | :04:49. | |
and with the Treasury receipts produced by a free-market economy | :04:49. | :04:56. | |
and it cannot be done and it is not affordable. Does Mitt Romney | :04:56. | :05:04. | |
understand that? They are going to be a joint ticket. We have looked | :05:04. | :05:08. | |
at the alternative Budget. There is an understanding of the fiscal | :05:08. | :05:12. | |
problem. With a Mitt Romney administration, they will come to | :05:12. | :05:17. | |
grips with that in a way that Europe ought to. The real | :05:17. | :05:22. | |
difference is that Barack Obama is bizarrely, because America is | :05:22. | :05:27. | |
usually 20 years ahead but they seem to be 20 years behind, trying | :05:27. | :05:31. | |
to sleepwalk into exactly the dilemma Western Europe has got | :05:31. | :05:36. | |
which is an unaffordable entitlements programme. There are | :05:36. | :05:42. | |
political choices. Barack Obama said he wanted defence spending to | :05:42. | :05:49. | |
get up to 4% per year. Is that affordable? We have had a platform | :05:49. | :05:54. | |
for tax cuts and the regulation. Defence spending can be increased | :05:54. | :05:59. | |
and can be cut by the federal government. But with entitlement | :05:59. | :06:04. | |
programmes, when people come to expect universal entitlements, | :06:04. | :06:08. | |
which almost half the population now expect and depends upon, that | :06:08. | :06:14. | |
is a political problem. That has to be faced. Some people take it is a | :06:14. | :06:20. | |
political solution. Not if it is unaffordable. What is happening in | :06:20. | :06:26. | |
Europe is that we are moving away from democracy and into a socialism | :06:26. | :06:31. | |
and planned economy. A command economy. A democratic socialist | :06:31. | :06:34. | |
thing does not work. You cannot have this free market supporting | :06:34. | :06:43. | |
the Socialist programme. We will come to that later. What about | :06:43. | :06:50. | |
Russia? We have got my great to clear use it. Jobs and the economy | :06:50. | :06:59. | |
are the main issues. -- two clear views. The extent of the problem is | :06:59. | :07:06. | |
such a big one. Sometimes you start doing something else but the real | :07:06. | :07:13. | |
issue is jobs. How will it be seen in Russia? Historically, the | :07:13. | :07:17. | |
Kremlin would prefer to deal with republicans rather than Democrats. | :07:17. | :07:26. | |
They prefer the tougher stance Washington would take. It would be | :07:26. | :07:32. | |
better to take an even tougher stance. The Kremlin is never quite | :07:32. | :07:36. | |
sure how to deal with people that want to be nice to you like Barack | :07:36. | :07:46. | |
Obama, for example. Ingenious argument! He is a political foe, | :07:46. | :07:53. | |
regardless of whether he was treated properly or not. | :07:53. | :07:57. | |
President Obama missed a trick in saying that Mitt Romney gets | :07:57. | :08:04. | |
Vladimir Putin's vote? It is not high on the agenda. I agree that | :08:05. | :08:08. | |
China and Syria will be important and Russia would like to be high on | :08:08. | :08:14. | |
the American agenda but in reality... And the question at the | :08:14. | :08:18. | |
beginning, will America be as important as it was in the last 30 | :08:18. | :08:22. | |
years? There is a distinction between as powerful and as | :08:22. | :08:27. | |
important. We have got the rise of other countries like China, India, | :08:27. | :08:34. | |
Brazil. But it we are looking in 30 years at two major powers like the | :08:34. | :08:41. | |
US and China, I think it will actually still be right up there. | :08:41. | :08:44. | |
One country his arm democratically run and elected and you need the | :08:44. | :08:51. | |
counterbalance. -- not democratically run. And perhaps all | :08:51. | :09:00. | |
of you see and people seem To forget, we have had a grisette | :09:00. | :09:10. | |
emphasis on troops going into Asia and Australia. Do you see that | :09:10. | :09:17. | |
whoever is President, that is going to continue in the Pacific? At that | :09:17. | :09:24. | |
will continue, in the shipping lanes in the South China Sea. But | :09:24. | :09:29. | |
you do have differences in approach in China. Mitt Romney seems more | :09:29. | :09:35. | |
confrontational and will take it to China. He said that he will | :09:35. | :09:45. | |
:09:45. | :09:46. | ||
declare... Unlike the United States. China is doing a particular thing | :09:46. | :09:51. | |
that with the dollar at the moment. The danger is that he could | :09:51. | :09:55. | |
precipitate a trading war which could be very serious because of | :09:55. | :10:00. | |
the cheap goods coming from China into America. Is there partly some | :10:00. | :10:04. | |
disappointment after the speech in the Middle East, but broadly in the | :10:04. | :10:12. | |
Middle East, the sort of thing Mitt Romney is talking about his... | :10:12. | :10:21. | |
Events of the last couple of years have changed. Events are taking | :10:21. | :10:26. | |
speed in a way that nobody could have expected. There are certain | :10:26. | :10:31. | |
things. In Afghanistan it is strange how few people have spoken | :10:31. | :10:41. | |
about that in the campaign. There is a 2014 deadline for withdrawal. | :10:41. | :10:46. | |
For the issues of Israel and Iran, in Israel we almost had a love fest | :10:46. | :10:51. | |
during the election season. There is not that much difference but in | :10:51. | :10:55. | |
Iran there is a sense that with a bit wrong the there will be a more | :10:55. | :11:00. | |
focused stance than he would have with President Obama. His advisers | :11:00. | :11:06. | |
are quite clear, people like John Bolton, they are very hawkish. They | :11:06. | :11:13. | |
believe in a military strike. of the things interesting about | :11:13. | :11:21. | |
President Obama's foreign policy is the incident in Libya. At the | :11:21. | :11:24. | |
consequences for foreign policy with the murder of the ambassador | :11:24. | :11:28. | |
and the fact that this was a planned terrorist attack and not as | :11:28. | :11:35. | |
was claimed that his was spontaneous. -- it was spontaneous. | :11:35. | :11:40. | |
It looked like he had smashed Al- Qaeda once he had killed Osama bin | :11:40. | :11:46. | |
Laden but that has gone and disintegrated. What is left of his | :11:46. | :11:53. | |
claims to have succeeded in terms of the terrorist threat? It is not | :11:53. | :12:00. | |
anywhere near smashed. Even if they have killed Osama bin Laden the | :12:00. | :12:04. | |
ideology remains. But it was very politicised and they have had to | :12:04. | :12:12. | |
step back, because it was about who knew what. They could have spoken | :12:12. | :12:22. | |
:12:22. | :12:22. | ||
more about... The other big thing that is kind of obvious is that | :12:22. | :12:31. | |
whoever is elected, it is also the Senate would be one way and | :12:31. | :12:35. | |
Congress would be another and this year it has not been great. They | :12:35. | :12:40. | |
will say, if they win, let's all pull together and it will be | :12:40. | :12:47. | |
difficult. It is difficult to avoid gridlock. President Clinton did. He | :12:47. | :12:50. | |
really did go bipartisan and abolished the federal welfare | :12:50. | :12:56. | |
programme and did a lot of things Republican Congress wanted. With | :12:56. | :13:01. | |
President Obama in 2010, he did not. He alienated the Republican | :13:01. | :13:06. | |
Congress and he has not been able to get budgets past. Would he | :13:06. | :13:14. | |
become more bipartisan? Unlikely. If he was re-elected I think he | :13:14. | :13:18. | |
would actually have learned from some of his mistakes. Bill Clinton | :13:18. | :13:23. | |
is not the best example because he faced off and had a government | :13:23. | :13:30. | |
shutdown. And for Bill Clinton in particular, he was more successful | :13:30. | :13:33. | |
and more popular facing down Republican Congress than he was | :13:33. | :13:40. | |
working with Democrats who he felt undermined him. And he met the | :13:40. | :13:45. | |
Republicans halfway. Whatever happens in the United States, we | :13:46. | :13:53. | |
have got a suggestion of a fiscal cliff. We have got problems with a | :13:53. | :13:57. | |
suggested a lame-duck Congress. We have under reported outside his | :13:57. | :14:04. | |
nation of how difficult it can be. The important thing is the legacy | :14:04. | :14:10. | |
of the first term. Four years ago, there was this sentiment of hope | :14:10. | :14:18. | |
and that things might change and how America would almost book form | :14:18. | :14:21. | |
on the international stage but perceptions have changed. -- | :14:21. | :14:28. | |
perform. The majority of the population in many countries would | :14:28. | :14:33. | |
prefer to have a right to vote and they all would vote for President | :14:33. | :14:38. | |
Obama because he still carries this hope. Whether that is correct or | :14:38. | :14:48. | |
:14:48. | :14:50. | ||
Does anyone think that the way President Obama has handled the | :14:50. | :14:55. | |
hurricane has helped him? I do not think it has hurt him but perhaps | :14:55. | :15:03. | |
has not produced the bounce they could have been hoping for. I think | :15:03. | :15:08. | |
Governor Christie of New Jersey, after so many attacks on President | :15:08. | :15:13. | |
Obama, to stand up and say he has had the good job, that was quite a | :15:13. | :15:23. | |
:15:23. | :15:24. | ||
moment. Two years somebody saying that he's done a good job. I did | :15:24. | :15:31. | |
not think that there was anything, the kind of electrifying moment | :15:31. | :15:37. | |
that he might have had, like George Bush with the megaphone, that did | :15:37. | :15:43. | |
not happen. He does not do a motion. So why do not think it has made any | :15:43. | :15:51. | |
difference. I was on a break last week in Barcelona and watching | :15:51. | :15:57. | |
television and from the way the news was reported, it seemed to be | :15:57. | :16:02. | |
that President Obama was taking care of things there and then. That | :16:02. | :16:09. | |
impressed me. It is very much the world media. I was watching the | :16:09. | :16:14. | |
American media and it did not have that feeling. David Cameron and | :16:14. | :16:16. | |
Angela Merkel have quite a bit in common, instinctive fiscal | :16:16. | :16:22. | |
conservatives, practitioners of austerity. Yet as they meet this | :16:22. | :16:25. | |
week ahead of the big European summit on the budget later this | :16:25. | :16:27. | |
month, their common cause over cutting spending is undermined by | :16:27. | :16:29. | |
one simple fact. Germany's world role depends on being at the centre | :16:29. | :16:32. | |
of the European Union. Britain, especially after a major defeat for | :16:32. | :16:35. | |
Mr Cameron in parliament this week, is on the fringes, and may move | :16:35. | :16:41. | |
outside. Is it crunch time for Britain in Europe? You would think | :16:41. | :16:45. | |
that because of the fiscal conservatism and where they both | :16:45. | :16:49. | |
come from, if any country's Good Corporate, they should be able to | :16:49. | :16:54. | |
do it on this budget matter. trouble is the structure of the | :16:54. | :16:58. | |
European Union makes that almost impossible. If Angela Merkel wants | :16:58. | :17:04. | |
to respond to her own electorate, and David Cameron wants to respond | :17:04. | :17:13. | |
to his, which is perfectly appropriate, then they have to put | :17:13. | :17:17. | |
the national interests of their own countries ahead of the structure | :17:17. | :17:22. | |
which is supposed to supersede those nation-states. That is the | :17:23. | :17:26. | |
contradiction of the European Union. This problem will solve itself | :17:26. | :17:33. | |
because that union has become untenable. So not just Britain | :17:33. | :17:38. | |
believing, it is all going to fall apart?! It is all going to fall | :17:38. | :17:46. | |
apart! Some might call that wishful thinking. Last week I was reading a | :17:47. | :17:55. | |
note saying that the European Union, the way they want to tackle the | :17:55. | :18:02. | |
problems in place 20, 30, 40 years ago, they want to apply the logic | :18:02. | :18:08. | |
of today to something completely irrelevant. It was a time of post- | :18:08. | :18:18. | |
:18:18. | :18:19. | ||
war food shortages. Exactly. It is essentially something socialist. | :18:19. | :18:24. | |
Perhaps they need a bigger budget in order to rethink! I think they | :18:24. | :18:30. | |
might need it for something else. The European Union was expanding in | :18:30. | :18:35. | |
the past decade, that is another question. I think they need to beat | :18:35. | :18:40. | |
realistic about what they want to do. The thing is that people have | :18:40. | :18:48. | |
to speak to their own electorate. But in some ways the German | :18:48. | :18:51. | |
electorate is similar to the British, they do not like paying | :18:51. | :18:57. | |
taxes for other people in particular. But the distinction is | :18:57. | :19:01. | |
they want Europe to succeed. They are completely signed up to the | :19:01. | :19:05. | |
European experiment. That is not to say they are in favour of how it | :19:05. | :19:09. | |
works out mechanically, but conceptually they are in favour of | :19:09. | :19:16. | |
it. That is how they exercise their influence. What I found curious | :19:16. | :19:20. | |
about Britain is that you hear about the possibility of Britain | :19:20. | :19:25. | |
was drawing eventually, a referendum. I have yet to hear | :19:25. | :19:32. | |
anyone make an argument for Europe over here. But plenty of | :19:32. | :19:41. | |
politicians say they are pro-Europe. Business people to say that they | :19:41. | :19:44. | |
have problems in its but they would prefer to be in it because it is a | :19:44. | :19:50. | |
big market. And it is one currency for a lot of people. Small | :19:50. | :19:55. | |
businesses do not want it. But the big corporations do because they | :19:55. | :20:00. | |
want a corporate universe. We will have to see what happens with the | :20:00. | :20:06. | |
Scottish referendum. But politically, and on the world stage, | :20:06. | :20:11. | |
it is important for Britain to remain within it. But it is going | :20:11. | :20:15. | |
through an incredible economic crisis and crisis of identity. | :20:15. | :20:20. | |
Britain wants to say we still have the pound, we are still strong. It | :20:20. | :20:25. | |
remains to be seen if the European Union can survive that Euro crisis. | :20:25. | :20:31. | |
And that is something that Britain wants to stay away from. If we did | :20:31. | :20:38. | |
not have that euro crisis it would be so much less politicised. What | :20:38. | :20:41. | |
about David Cameron and the Conservative Party. Ed Miliband | :20:41. | :20:47. | |
also on the Labour Party quite interesting. But Ed Miliband says | :20:47. | :20:57. | |
:20:57. | :20:58. | ||
you are John Major all over again, you cannot control your party. | :20:58. | :21:02. | |
Obviously he is scoring a political point that is useful to him. But | :21:02. | :21:07. | |
this business about you cannot control your party. It is not a | :21:07. | :21:13. | |
bunch of lunatic right fringe areas within the party saying this. In | :21:13. | :21:20. | |
fact it is the majority of the population saying this. The | :21:20. | :21:23. | |
majority actually think we would be better off outside the European | :21:23. | :21:28. | |
Union. This has become mainstream. So when David Cameron said he was | :21:28. | :21:32. | |
going to overall that section of his party, he's saying he is going | :21:32. | :21:37. | |
to overall popular opinion. That is a funny thing for a Prime Minister | :21:37. | :21:43. | |
to say. It is interesting about the opinion polls, that many would like | :21:43. | :21:47. | |
to leave the European Union. But they want to travel to Spain on the | :21:47. | :21:55. | |
holidays and keep losing money on the exchange rate. They have to | :21:55. | :22:00. | |
change their money now. There wondering why their benefits are | :22:00. | :22:07. | |
being cut whereas the European Union budget is not. There are also | :22:07. | :22:10. | |
aware that there are droves of French people swimming across the | :22:10. | :22:20. | |
:22:20. | :22:20. | ||
Channel to reach Britain to escape the 27% tax rate! Post 2015 when | :22:20. | :22:27. | |
Britain could be out of European Union, Scotland out of Britain, no | :22:27. | :22:31. | |
longer being in the permanent five of the Security Council of the | :22:31. | :22:41. | |
:22:41. | :22:43. | ||
United Nations...? Why we did not be in the Security Council? | :22:43. | :22:48. | |
Scotland would no longer be part of the UK. That is interesting. The | :22:49. | :22:52. | |
argument that without Europe, Britain has no role in the world. | :22:52. | :22:57. | |
It has always had a strong role in the world far go because of its | :22:57. | :23:02. | |
alliance with America. Partly because of its history. So I do not | :23:02. | :23:06. | |
think in terms of world influence that would be a problem. On the | :23:06. | :23:09. | |
contrary I think it would be lost and diluted if it was to get | :23:09. | :23:14. | |
swamped by its membership of the European Union. I do not think that | :23:14. | :23:19. | |
it would be swamped. But if it chose to opt out of the European | :23:20. | :23:29. | |
Union then there is an alliance with Germany, and that talks with | :23:29. | :23:33. | |
the Iranians were so strong because it was Britain, Germany and France. | :23:33. | :23:38. | |
That cannot be underestimated. lot of people in Germany would like | :23:38. | :23:42. | |
to see Germany opt out and deal that would be the solution to the | :23:42. | :23:52. | |
:23:52. | :23:53. | ||
economic crisis. The other side of the argument is that the European | :23:53. | :24:00. | |
Union without Britain is also hobbled itself. It will have a | :24:00. | :24:05. | |
lessening of influence without Britain. If they were to lose a | :24:05. | :24:07. | |
seat on the Security Council I think a lot of their global | :24:08. | :24:14. | |
influence actually would decrease. That is why �350 million was | :24:14. | :24:18. | |
announced for pride -- for Trident and the whole idea of nuclear | :24:18. | :24:26. | |
weapons. In terms of how that vote, the views of the British people, | :24:26. | :24:30. | |
but in terms of David Cameron talking to Angela Merkel and then | :24:30. | :24:37. | |
threatening to veto on the budget negotiations, how has that | :24:37. | :24:42. | |
strengthened David Cameron's position? I think the narrative is | :24:42. | :24:46. | |
he has not been able to exercise the kind of discipline that he | :24:46. | :24:52. | |
ought to us party leader. Because he is ahead of the party. Addis | :24:52. | :24:56. | |
Ababa has to be able to keep people in line. He is not going to get | :24:56. | :25:02. | |
what he wants, regardless. Soak exercising a veto is actually the | :25:02. | :25:07. | |
right way to go, domestically. of the complexes is that if he uses | :25:07. | :25:14. | |
the veto and chilly Britain's contributions could go up. It also | :25:14. | :25:18. | |
helps negotiations with Angela Merkel and others saying, look what | :25:18. | :25:24. | |
I am dealing with domestically, you have to give me some leeway. What | :25:24. | :25:27. | |
might have been more sensible would be perhaps to see, we are a great | :25:27. | :25:33. | |
party, let us have a free vote on this. Because actually many more | :25:33. | :25:39. | |
people could not face going into the lobby with the Labour Party. | :25:39. | :25:45. | |
Then I think the whole party would walk out from under him! At what | :25:45. | :25:49. | |
did you make of what Labour did? Clearly it was a move to embarrass | :25:49. | :25:54. | |
the government but does it also suggest a political consensus? | :25:54. | :26:01. | |
and No. It was wildly opportunistic. He wanted to embarrass Cameron by | :26:01. | :26:05. | |
making the boat as large as possible. But there are a lot of | :26:05. | :26:09. | |
Labour voters who appeal as Euro- sceptic as any of the Tories. | :26:09. | :26:12. | |
That's it for Dateline London for this week. We'll be back next week | :26:13. | :26:15. |