29/12/2012 Dateline London

There will be a full news bulletin at one o'clock. Now it's time for

Dateline London 2012 Review, live Hello and welcome to Dateline UK,

the last programme of 2012 and our opportunity to reflect on a year of

celebration in the UK, with the Queen's Jubilee and a summer of

sport, although in politics the Olympic spirit faded pretty fast.

It's also the year in which Barack Obama defied the electoral

soothsayers by winning a second term despite the state of the US

economy. The Euro currency, too, has survived, and Greece is still

in it, but the difficulties remain, as they do in Arab countries, where

the euphoria of revolution has faded and many of the problems

remain unresolved. To discuss all of that, a panel of distinguished

commentators. John Fisher Burns is with the New York Times. Nesrine

Malik is a Sudanese journalist, who writes on Arab affairs. Alex Deane

is a regular contributor to Conservative Home, the website of

British conservatism, and Marc Roche is with the French newspaper

Le Monde. Let's begin with British politics and David Cameron's year.

It has been a mixed bag for this Government. It is a classic made

parliamentary year. Some things, education, welfare, unemployment

down has been successful. In any era decided by economics, nobody

could pretend the budget went well or suggest that public spending is

under control. We are still spending far too much money. There

has been some bad PR and a bad Budget. And so a new word, on the

shambles. I think that was probably undeserved. Nobody could pretend

that the budget went well. It led to his series of U-turns. The more

important problem to my mind is that back we still have an enormous

debt as it, and are still spending �600 billion more adding to the

public debt. We're passing on an incredible debt to children as yet

unborn. Is this being looked at what is certain wry appreciation

from across the Channel. Absolutely. It couldn't be better to have

England's bid in its place by the economy, while the British press

goes on about the crisis in the euro. What is interesting is that

this year you had the rebellion of the wing of the party that still

believes in Europe. You had this city. The Lib Dems. Finally, the

European partners who said we have had enough of the British. The

Jacques Delors said recently that the British are only interested in

the economics and Europe is a different way. Shopkeeper mentality.

I will see if the discussion on Europe for a bit later. The curious

thing about this coalition government seems to have been that

we have a party that was notoriously ill-disciplined, the

Liberal-Democrats, showing enormous amounts of discipline. The

Conservatives have been at each other's throats. It has been a

difficult year. The Conservatives are fed up with the coalition.

David Cameron is squeezed between the two. In the past year or so, he

has completely cuts Nick Clegg loose. Nick Clegg looks perpetually

apologetic. David Cameron's biggest problem is the right wing of his

party. There is a big rebellion in Europe over gay marriage. Four

weeks ago there was a groundswell against his particular calls, which

is to try and get gay marriage passed through Parliament. There

was a bad showing in local elections for the Tory party in

April. But the PCC elections also. He has been battered this year. The

coalition is trying to hold together until the next general

election when the Conservatives want to win it alone. This could

all be written off as mid-term blues. I absolutely think so. Press

to get closer to the next election, the Little Democrats and Labour are

going to come under the microscope. What is their position going to be

on Europe? What will their position be on managing the debt? It is much

easier to be in opposition than it is to be in government. If the

trajectory continues to move on unemployment in particular in the

way that it has, maybe the Conservatives will get more credit

than they have to be it for their attempts to rein the same, albeit

that they do appear to be at this moment somewhat unavailable. To

Labour have a plan? What is the Liberal-Democrat plant? What do

they intend to do about Europe? We have seen government and mid-term

many times before tend to get into the doldrums. I think it is all

still to play for. We used to have an expression of holding on to

nurse for fear of something worse. That is the logic that is

underpinning be a coalition. The Lib Dems are holding on to

something worse. If you went to the polls tomorrow of the Lib Dems

would be smashed. There is no more perverse time to have a fixed term

parliaments then when you have two parties who don't really belong

together. You may see some splinter party votes, like UKIP, how many of

them will move back? I think a lot of those boats will not be won by

the Conservative Party. Labour had a good year. I think they have the

leader that is making a mark. They have a plan on the economy. They

are pro-European, which I think the British public gaze -- is it.

Labour is an alternative. Did you say you want the British right?

Yes! Labour has a Leeds of eight points over the coalition. That is

nothing! I am not entirely sure that Labour can do it. Thinking

about the difficult year for David Cameron, it should be an open goal.

I think David Miliband -- Ed Miliband is holding them back.

David Cameron's attention is increasingly on how to win a second

term. In the United States, Barack Obama is about to begin his. That

may create the opportunity for a fresh attempt to broker peace in

the Middle East, although America's attention seems to be shifting

further east. He won a second term, but was it as impressive a wind as

it has been written up by Democrats? You had a very

problematic Republican candidates and the party itself is very

divided. As to what sort of a man dates Barack Obama has, that is

very unclear. We will begin to see how much his credibility helped

some in this battle of for the budget making. And on the Middle

East, you would have to be very optimistic indeed to believe that

anything we have seen in the last year or two when the to a turn for

the better in the Middle East. think Barack Obama has been worse

for the Middle East. One of his major pledges was to shut down

Guantanamo Bay. The ground war has intensified. If anything, he has as

-- he has been a Republican in terms of foreign policy. The only

thing is we now know what. Nobody is waiting for him to do anything.

The Middle East expects the US to dip in when there is some strategic

interest, namely Israel. The most intense engagement that has

happened since the beginning of the Arab Spring has been to do with

Gazza and Israel. I am not optimistic that Barack Obama will

have any effect on the Middle East. Mitt Romney was open the -- openly

supporting a more balanced attitude towards them at least. Whoever sits

in the White House, considering Benjamin Netanyahu, a doubt they

could have done much more against someone like him. I am not sure if

it was anybody he was sitting in that seed could include things on

very far. Is Egypt turning in to what people in Washington feared it

would turn into? Absolutely not. When the Muslim Brotherhood came to

power they were terrified. What has happened very swiftly is that they

have realised, the Muslim Brotherhood, that they are a Muslim

Indian but in terms of foreign policy they are continuation of the

old regime. It was very clear in the last conflict in Gaza that the

Muslim Brotherhood was the U S's henchmen to broker the peace

agreement in Israel. The whole point in terms of foreign policy

was that there would be a more robust confrontation with the

Western powers, and there hasn't been. One thing we have seen that

has brought a bit of common ground between Barack Obama and David

Cameron, is a shifting focus. They had been looking further East,

whether it is for trades or in terms of military or strategic

relationships. Are we now have some kind of to pinpoint? Then at least

has dominated concerns for 60 years and perhaps a lot of people in the

West have not shown enough interest as they might in the Far East.

There is no doubt that the renewed focus on the Far East is absolutely

right. Whilst these are topics of real interest to those around the

table, in the US the attention is almost exclusively on domestic

problems. As far as many things are concerned. I don't think Barack

Obama's re-election makes any difference to them at least at all.

George Bush was the first person to That is your point of view. That is

what we are here for, but there is no doubt, there is a focus on the

Far East. Especially in trade. We see that with David Cameron's Trade

Envoys to the various countries which he has said have been

neglected in the past. An open demonstration of a shift in economy.

What matters is Europe. The European Union and that is why you

need a strong European Union to balance... China, wait, you have

China... America. You need a strong Europe. You have the British who

are sabotaging it. They are disappearing in the mire

of their debt. They are still there. The euro is still there.

How about the Greeks? That is a minority against... Can it be fair

to blame's Europe's problems on the UK? Has not Europe had a hand, and

the US spouse in creating its own problems? That is why you need

partners who play the game, not people who say they want their

money back. OK, I cannot hold Mark back longer.

We have to move on to Europe. think we have. This is fun.

12 months ago would you have been expecting the eurozone to remain in

tact? Were you sitting there, praying it would make a path?

not sure if it is in our interest to fall apart, but I did not expect

it to stay in its existing for mat. If you said in 12 months' time that

the euro would remain with the same members, I think that would have

been a minority position it turns out to be correct. What you don't

understand is that Europe is not about the economy. It is about

soldard -- solidarity. A notion that the British don't understand.

Solidarity means that the Germans are doing well and the Dutch are

ready to share the budden to help. But are they? Well there is, maybe

not happily. The Germans share, on that we agree.

On what democratic mandate is happens that Germans are fleeced in

order to pay for the Greek debt, I don't know. But the Germans have

the market. In the EU it is give and take. You pay for the Greek,

but you have the central market. It has made Germany a powerful nation.

I thank the Germans for the generosity, even if it was forced

to help us in difficult times. That is Europe.

There is a difference, between not understanding and disagreeing. We

as British Euro-sceptics under stand that the idea is about

solidarity, we disagree that is what it should be about. We entered

on the premise it was a common market. That was never the

situation... I think you talk a lot about Britain's attitude regarding

the EU, how it has its problems, not because there are problems in

the EU that Britain is moody, but the two can be correct. You can say

that there are problems in the European Union, fiscal problems

that we don't want to be a part of, but I do think that David Cameron

has been politically immature when it comes to Europe and has used it

as something totemic to play off against different ranks of his

party. There is a speech coming up next month where he is to outline

his vision for the EU. He husband put himself into a corner, I think,

as he is going to have to mollify his right-wing party, by appearing

to be tougher on Europe, to say it must be flexible, but at the same

time, he needs to engage with the European Union robustly and

diligently enough for them not to dismiss him as playing politics.

Britain is one of the member... You have a very good deal from Europe.

Look, your economy has done well. Not because of the euro, but in the

past it has done well. You have a good deal with Europe. What would

you be without Europe? A little nation.

Nonsense! We need a factual correction, Britain is one of the

largest net contributors to the European Union. So is Germany,

Holland, many. I have no doubt that is true, but

to present Britain as a spoiler is unrealistic. As for David Cameron,

I am not here to represent, that is your job, David Cameron's view, but

he has a serious problem. He has at least 100 and maybe more of his

backbenchers, that is to say a third or more of his elected member

who is take a very dispective view of the European Union. He has to

manage that in some way. But you have said that is a problem

for David Cameron. I say it is a strength. There is nothing that

empowers him more at the European negotiating table than the ability

to say look at the voices in my party, who would have us out all

together. You have to make room for my position. There is the problem.

That is not our problem. The problem is David Cameron's problem

as UK Independence Party, the Independence Party, who want out of

Europe is presenting a very clear position. People will be anti-

Europe and will prefer the real to the Redcaring.

We know that the polls are in the confined to the United Kingdom. You

see the same views taken address Europe.

You have seen in 2012, the rise of sceptic euro parties, in countries

that we thought were soldly in the EU. Finland is the obvious example

it is a country soldly for the Europe union, did something shift

in 2012, even within the eurozone? I think we are seeing a replay of

issues we have seen for a long time as for the eurozone problem it

reminds me of years when I was in South Africa, where people were

right to say that a failure to negotiate a way through the

apartheid problems to a future, is unimaginable as the alternative is

catastrophic. For all of the doom saying that there has been in the

last year-and-a-half about the euro, there are quite enough, clever

people managing the problem, but there will be ultimately...

SPEAK AT ONCE But to move from semantics, there is a big PR

problem when it comes to the European Union, and the way that

people piggy back to justify right- wing views like UKIP, for example,

anti-immigration, it is totemic of inward looking, baton down the

hatches, types of views. Unrepresented in political main

stream in this country, and only a political adviser would look at it

to say there is an opportunity. the point is that there must be PR

for the European Union. Millions of pounds are spent on its

PR by us! You know, the European Union pays for the roads, the

museums, the this and the that... The public tenor in the UK, the

public tenor is right-wing in Euro- sceptic... You asked John in if the

rise of Euro-sceptic around the euro was significant. I think it

represents the flipside of what has been happening. You and people like

you say Europe this, Europe that, as if someone elected Europe to

anything that there is a democratic... ALL SPEAK AT ONCE

They say it is not deserved, it is the price of peace.

Who is going to war? We have had 60 years of peace thanks to the EU.

Do you think that is right? Franco German access... You did not

mention NATO. NATO surely was the principal stabilising force? I was

not just being cheap when I was saying that no-one elected this

position. My point is that with the rise of the euro accidentic parties

which are getting elected to various things in the European

fringes and in the European main stream, there is a counter balance

to the hitherto. The European accepted point of view that Europe

will be this or that, a single -- a single entitty, that no-one ever

really voted for. There was the Maastricht Treaty!

The Parliament that you don't recognise, you tonight recognise

your own Parliament! Of course I do. John Major, the conservative cif

Prime Minister! Europe is about solidarity, this or that, that you

have said... The Nobel Peace Prize... That is another line, but

no-one voted for that position in Europe as far as the UK is

concerned it was a trading area. Just on the trading area, let's

pull it back to that. On the trading area, do you think, Nisreen

Malik, that it was that promise by Mario Draghi to do whatever it

takes to save the euro that finally convinced the markets that the

politicians were serious? I think so. I think that about a years ago

there was a genuine feeling that this could all fall apart that the

unthinkable could happen which was a multi-tier European Union and

fiscal union, but I think what the politicians have done, there was a

tension between the politicians and the economists, and the politicians

and the money men, but I think that the politicians have this pure grit

and determination, have convinced the market that this is a fact it

stayed and we have to deal with it. So I agree that changed thing. Even

as we were last year, think think psychologically something has

shifted in the favour of the euro. Mario Draghi, man of the year. The

most anti-euro newspaper has made... Let me take this seriously...

Barack Obama won the Peace Prize before being in office. We can

dispense with that. We can dispense about the Peace Prize. It is the

highest honour for Europe. Would you rather see Britain out of

the European Union? I would personally, but I think that

Britain will stay as the new British, the young, the immigrants,

the women, the gays, all are what made Barack Obama win will...

Gentleman, that is one prediction for 2013. We leave the rest for

next week's programme for now, thank you very much for joining us,