05/01/2013 Dateline London

I will be back with the full news bulletin at 1pm. It is time for

Welcome to the first Dateline London of 2013. Will it be the year

when the world economy finally puts the worst of the financial crisis

behind it? With the eurozone survive and thrive? Where are the

likely places for armed conflict? Our soothsayers and not infallible

predictors are Abdel Barri Atwan from Al-Quds Al-Arabi, Thomas

Kielinger from Die Welt, Stryker McGuire from Bloomberg Markets, and

David Aaronvitch from the Times. The world economy. Has the worst

avoid the self-inflicted disaster of the fiscal cliff or delayed a

big political fight? Will the euro get through the worst were then

reinvest -- reinvigorated local administration? First novel, the

worst cliche of 2012 was about kicking hands down the road to

solve economic problems. And the cans kept getting bigger and bigger.

That is exactly what has happened in America. it is not solved, is

that? We have the debt ceiling now. We are dealing with different

metaphors. Given the rather nasty mood in Washington and the

perceived weakness of the Republican Speaker, it is going to

be even more difficult to find agreement on what to cut. Right. I

think the White House is what it fears is that the Republicans will

actually allow... Will not raise the debt limits, which means

federal employees will not get paid and a lot of other things.

Government will shut down. The White House is afraid the

Republicans are willing to pay that price to make sure that cuts are

actually and made in entitlement programmes. Is there any sense this

is a repeat of the mid-90s when similar things happened, not in

such terrible economic straits, but there was bad feeling between Newt

Gingrich and Bill Clinton. There was a shutdown of US government and

there was buoy back mostly for the Republicans. Correct, and it helped

Bill Clinton who was President at the time. There is a sense that

memory softens the concerns that people have. There is a sense that

one way or another, the world is not going to blow up, the United

States is not going to blow up, the world economy will chug along, but

it is really just a sense that you can postpone things. And what a lot

of people are concerned about more than debt, for example, is growth.

People want growth in the United States. Which is the problem here.

Is the worst over? No At Sea As above 6,000, unemployment figures

are not as bad as they could be. -- the FTSE. Things in the eurozone

are not great but not bad. Leaving the eurozone aside because there

are some very varied economies in the eurozone, there is a general

proposition in America where we're heading for 1.8% growth, even next

year, which is 2% growth, it is not a continuing recession. It is 2%

more growth there than here. It is 1.8% more growth than here! We are

bumping along also at a low plateau level which gives rise to other

problems and we will feel them in a big way over the next year. If you

think about things we are rowing about, like train price rises and

so on... Above inflation. Yes, what that shows you is that a large

section of the population is not earning sufficient extra in order

to cushion itself against the extra shocks. There are stories about

significant food price increases. This is not going to be a

catastrophe and we will not suffer a catastrophe, but what we will

suffer is further pessimism and tightening and so on. I think

paradoxically was the economy probably does head for a slow

growth... We will come back to Britain's problems but it comes at

a time when some of the cuts for the government are actually coming

on child benefit. Politically, it will be quite tricky. The entire

change in the welfare system comes into play this year. If that works,

there will be many losers and some winners. It has been something the

government has wanted to do for a long time. It is a big change. It

could be associated with dramatic problems because new systems in

Britain... As we know! What are you suggesting? We did get the Olympics

done, so maybe we will get the new income credit system done. The big

story in Europe is the question of whether the eurozone can continue

to pull together, whether Angela Merkel is re-elected and whether

she has a mandate in Germany and to stamp her authority on by Europe

where there is not another leader who stands out as capable of

leading the eurozone. Quite true. She has been at the helm for eight

years and a couple of weeks longer than her predecessor. She

represents continuity. I must remind you, she did rock the boat

with the change of the energy policy, aggregating nuclear power.

After the Japanese nuclear power disaster. She was almost as

determined to go ahead with a 10 point plan to merge the two

Germany's as Helmut coal. The second moment of weakness was her

refusal to go along with the Libyan solution and attacking Gaddafi.

Germany abstained. Despite these two blemishes, her record is very

good, and I think she is a shoo-in for the re-election in September.

She is helped in by the fact the SPT -- SDP leader... His position

is dire. In Europe, she is going to go into new ventures, new steps to

give more aid to countries, she has done all she can to stabalise

Greece and get the European Central Bank involved, but I don't think

she will do any more specific things. The German taxpayer has had

enough of transfer of money. So there will be no neutralisation of

natural -- neutralisation of national debt. She is pretty

uncontested across Europe. We will talk about the dire trouble of some

of the Arab states, but in terms of economics, the Gulf states

continued to do extraordinary well. Years, the oil price is very high

and production is very high also. So we have a lot of money there.

But the whole world is bankrupt. There is a crisis in Europe and in

the United States. But the Middle East is driving. The Gulf states.

Talking about the eurozone, I remember the beginning of last year,

many people were predicting that the eurozone would collapse. Greece

would be kicked out of the eurozone. And, you know, the German mark will

come back again. The French franc would come back again. And the

Stirling would be god bless. What is happening now? The euro is

strong, the eurozone is still stable, and could actually be,

because it is the end of the recession, with zero growth, but

wants to steady the ship, and we have to be thankful to the German

efficiency... And Greece is on board. This is a complement for the

new year. I take the complement. Greece is still in, Berlusconi

might come back in. Things are going well. That is an example of

The X Factor. These things come in and Royal everything again. Italy

could become a very serious problem again, and so could Spain.

whole of last year, talking about Spain collapsing, Italy collapsing,

and the bail out how to deal with this, how to raise money for the

bail out, but until now, nothing. Since we are focusing on the next

year, it is a fairly safe prediction to say that the Euro-

sceptic train did not come in. David Cameron is worried about UKIP.

It is a difficult problem because UKIP, except for the Conservative

Party, it is not a significant party. It is not really politically

serious. There will be people watching he will be an uproar. You

discover that there is a massive lack of coherence in the party.

They are riding a slight populist wave. In order to get 10% of the

vote, it is a problem. The Conservative Party have to maintain

their support among East UK I P. They could have lived with UKIP

having votes if they had an alternative vote system that

allowed people to transfer back to the Tories but they campaigned

against it so this is not a possibility. So if people vote UKIP,

that is a detachment from the Conservatives. What David Cameron

has realised is that if he wants to do anything in the world, in the

economic world, his best friend, his closest buddy, his biggest ally

is going to have to beat Angela Merkel. There is nothing that

Britain needs to do that can't be done without her. That is full of

logic. They come from the same places of how to run economies.

he knows that now. He also understands that abandoning the

centre ground is not good long-term strategy. The question is how to

play enough off to the site to keep them quiet was doing the serious

things. Do you think that could work? He is doing a bit of

brinkmanship trying to appease everyone. I don't have much faith

in the great speeches going to give you -- on Europe. He wants to be

close to Germany, but he has his agenda of the revision of

competences. He wants to seek where the European Union has been helpful

to Britain and where it hasn't, and he wants to we patriot certain

aspects. That is not going to fly with Angela Merkel. He can threaten

his colleagues that if he doesn't get some sort of the tracing of

steps, they will have to lose him. Germany doesn't want to lose

Britain. Germany is ready to keep Britain on board so we will see

some very, you know, interesting negotiations going on and nobody

knows how it is going to pan out because it will only happen in 2015

when he is offering this referenda. As Britain winds down its

commitment in Afghanistan, the light has trouble spots of 2013

remain in the arc of instability which stretches from North Africa

through to Pakistan, so what should keep us awake in 2013 in potential

conflicts? China and Japan? Wars in Africa? Syria is the forefront --

so it is in the forefront of our minds. I think it is going to beat

Iran. Whether it will be war or peace, there is a re-election this

month, at the end of this month, and we have, you know, a lot of

aircraft carriers in the Gulf, and the Americans and the British have

them there, hundreds of warships, everyone is talking about war. On

the table, there are negotiations between Iran and the United States,

so whether it will be peace or war. The whole face of the Middle East

could change dramatically. This is a crucial year for the Middle East.

Look at that. The nuclear programme and how the West will deal with it.

Will they contain it or bomb it? That is the most important thing.

Syria, we can understand what is happening in North Africa and Syria

and Iraq. The situation in Syria, the anarchy, is spilling over to

Iraq. We have the same intifada in Iraq. This could be initiated by

the same countries who would like to drag them into a wall. Do you

think this is the year that President Assad will go? We do not

know, we cannot predict. Last week I was in Jordan and I met King

Abdullah, and he disagreed with all these predictions that President

Assad will go. He has told me that he is still strong. He still

managed to gain support from his own Alawite sect. Many people

predicted the last year that his days are numbered, but he is still

there. Many reports from serious say that he is strong. What about

Syria? They could be different zones of control. President Assad

has changed his tactics and he is talking to Russia. And also around.

He is enjoying some support from them. This war is costing him $1

billion a month. So he only got about $2 billion under his disposal.

So maybe two months he will finish, but we have to remember that Saddam

Hussein survived 13 years of I don't buy this at all. I think he

will be gone by the end of the year. Saying that somebody's days on

numbers -- number it does not mean you know what that number is! The

rebels are gradually tightening around Assad in Damascus. He almost

certainly can't stay the full year. I predict he will be gone. Leaving

aside the question of Iran's nuclear programme, I think one of

the problems for Iran is with Assad gone, what you have is an enormous

weakening of Iran's influence in the area. There is a siege problem

between -- a big problem between the secular influence in Iran and

the council. It is not solvable. The sanctions are really biting.

Iranian people... We cannot predict this will lead to one thing or

emanation, because the 2009 situation was put down. But it is a

major sub-theme, which I think is the weakening of the Iranian

alliances. There may be some miraculous

resurgence of indigenous opposition which will raise its head and

become stronger. But isolation is what I see. I also agree with you,

David, on the issue on whether or not Assad will survive. In Iraq,

there was not such a strong opposition force. Here we have a

war that is getting bloodier by the day. It is unsustainable.

problem is that we are talking about a similar scenarios in the

Middle East. One of the most common scenarios is that Assad could, in

the end, even if Damascus falls to the hands of the rebels, he will

retreat to his Alawites territories in the North of Syria and he could

fight again. Colonel Gaddafi did the same thing. This scenario is

very viable. He could take some of the chemical weapons with them. It

is not a predictable area in the Middle East. As far as I'm

concerned, as soon as he does that, he is gone. It will be another

problem. You have an organisation which is orthodox Muslim jihad Bo

is a thing we have not talked about it is what that means if there is a

sunny resurgence in the area. Sunni Resurgence. Many people are

looking at the second term of the US President, thinking that Barack

Obama, going back to his Kiri speech, has issued interest in the

region. But there has been no great change in American policy because

American interests remain constant. No great change in American policy,

but look at Libya. That is different from Iraq. We have a

president and his Secretary of Defence who voted against the war

in Iraq. That is pretty remarkable. Whether or not that makes a

difference, it will be interesting to look at Iran's election. Let's

look at the relationship between the US and Israel and see whether

that changes at all after the election. It is a difficult year.

It is a crucial year in the Middle East. It could change the whole of

the Middle East. Predictions about the past a better! That brings us

on to our predictions for the year ahead. We have about five minutes

left. You have written a book about the Queen and you are interested in

the British royal family. My prediction is that there will be a

while baby. That is a safe bet! Will it be a boy or a girl? With

all this doom and gloom about impending crisis and was, I will

predict there will be a happy birth of a boy. Well, that's that!

are talking like Middle Eastern people here! Gynaecologist Stella's

that the way the pregnancy has gone so far points to the birth of a boy.

Women had hoped that in this key position, there might be a woman,

but we might have to wait another generation. But we have the Queen

in the meantime. We have the matriarch holding On and putting

her foot down when she needs to, like in the case of homosexual

marriages in Anglican churches, where she clearly told David

Cameron, not on my territory. She is Supreme Governor of the Anglican

Church, and there is a new aspect written into the homosexual build

which forbids the Anglican Church to hold such considerations. It is

clearly in the writing of the Queen! The Queen does not think

about things like homosexuality. Moving on to further predictions,

you have already said it would be the year of around. What else do

you foresee? I will bring down my crystal ball. I will be the king of

Palestine. I think Syria will be dominant. I can see Syria being

dismantled, and also Iraq. I can see the probabilities of bombing

Iran by Israel is actually one of the things which could happen this

year, because I believe Israel will elect a very right-wing government.

Netanyahu's campaign is to go around bombing Aram, so I would be

surprised if is Railtrack's the war into a -- tracks the West into a

wall against Iran. God knows what will happen. We have gone from a

nice prediction about children in the royal family to something very

unpleasant. One reason I think this is and -- an interesting story as

an all-male panel is what has happened because of the rape in

Delhi. And talking about Pakistan, India and other places in the

Middle East. The pressures of modernisation are forcing

traditional societies with strong patriarchy is into rapid and

difficult change, and it is one to keep an eye on. We always talk

about life in terms of revolutions with guns and weapons and blood,

but some of the biggest changes that happening societies happen

without such things happening. They are done by millions of ordinary

people changing the way they behave, and they East create real ruptures

and changes. This tells us something else about possible

alternative futures like areas in Pakistan. I can barely contain my

excitement about Thomas's prediction. It means we don't have

to worry about anything else, if this happens. It will be such a

great moment. We all know it will be a girl now he has said it would

be a boy! Will it be of German ancestry? That is being diluted

ever-more. 30 seconds. Gun-control in the United States. Now Hedwig?

That is fairly safe. Anything else? There will not be any headway.

There may be some HET tinkering that will help. The fiscal crisis

that began in 2007, 2008, which was supposed to have ended a while ago

and is still with us, then continued to stay with us, and that

will hurt the UK because the financial sector in this country is