23/02/2013 Dateline London

I will be back at one o'clock with a full news bulletin. Now it is

Hello and welcome to Dateline London. A home-grown British terror

plot that could have killed hundreds of people. What are the

consequences and for Tobal -- possible return of a comic. Our

guests today are Mark Schubert a writer. Kate Dourian and Henry Chu

from the Los Angeles Times and Janet Daley from the Sunday

Telegraph. The British security services MI5 stopped the plotters

before they could do any damage. The bad news is that a tiny

minority of British-born who seem to hate this country so much that

they want to murder and maim at random our citizens. There were

some ludicrous elements, but it was very dangerous. Being a buffoon

does not preclude the possibility that he successfully let off a bomb.

It could explain why people in the community seemed to be aware of

what they were doing, or where that they were trained in Pakistan,

terrorist training camp, didn't feel it was essential to report

them. But a worrying development. There is almost nothing you can do

to prevent people who are misfits or fantasists from getting involved

in alien, and the culture terrorist plots. Nonetheless, there is

something seriously wrong. It is probably the Muslim community that

will have to deal with it. How do you view this? A lot of plots have

been stopped or have just not worked out, thankfully.

Intelligence agencies are getting better at this. I think as Janet

was saying in terms of the Muslim community itself, in stopping this

itself. I think one of the plotters who was convicted a few days ago

had recruited four young men who were then set up to Pakistan as

well to receive training. Their own families called and said, what are

you doing? Get back here. At least there is some community

accountability and I think that is helpful. In the US we have that is

well. One of the bits that was lost on this, these people went out and

collected, allegedly on behalf of in a perfectly charitable group

called Muslim Aid. There is great irritation in the Muslim community

about that. Absolutely. If you poll people in the committee, if you

asked them what they thought of these young men, they would be

outraged. What you make of this? You were based in the Gulf. What do

you see in this? Britain is a very tolerant society. If you go

elsewhere in Europe, there are anti-immigration parties that

thrive. If you Britain so much, you are in a democratic society, you

can talk about your grievances instead of trying to blow things up

and poisoned people. They are like the Three stooges but scary,

incompetent, they lost a lot of money trying to play the market.

Apparently they were heard saying that by the time the committee was

due, they would be dead. You would have the same advantages that you

have in this country. -- MOT. I think there is a danger now that

this sort of tolerance is going to be pushed to the limit in Britain

because it has been very tolerant. Mark, you write on these issues.

You write on how the intelligence agencies have changed. That is the

one big positive that we should focus on. The fact that the Muslim

community's contribution to the process of where intelligence has

come from has been limited. It has fed into the ways the counter

terrorist programme has been tailored. It is the case that

ground-level intelligence was gathered for a long period of time.

After the seventh July, 7 -- 7/7 bombing, there was a sense that

something had to be done to ensure that things were not being missed

at ground level, hence the decision by MI5 to set up regional offices,

of now which there are several. They could gather intelligence that

was brought to them by the Muslim community or by the police. There

has been a tailoring of the counter-terrorist effort that has

been part in response to the fact that there is this limited amount

of intelligence coming in. Have they got better people who are

plugged into the community more or? People who speak certain languages

that they did not have perhaps 10 years ago? That is an important

issue. The group from which intelligence officers are recruited

from has grown. We have seen what is happening in Syria and Libya and

Egypt, we have the problems in Algeria and Mali, the threat is

changing, too? I do not think the factor that there be new seaters

where there are conflicts emerging is changing the attitudes of people

within the UK. I think essentially they have for a very long period of

time there had been issues that have fed into the mentality that is

reckoned -- has radical eyes people. Southern Spain was part of the

Muslim world, Kashmir, hugely important issues. There is always a

grievance you can pick on. Absolutely. One thing we have not

mentioned is that there are terror camps training people in Pakistan.

That is something the Pakistan Government and British Government,

somehow the Pakistan problem has to be... We invaded Afghanistan

because we were trying to get rid of the training camps and the

hotbeds of Al-Qaeda activity. Now something has to be done about that.

Her in your book you talk about the efficacy of them. Do they work?

in the end they will create a temporary window. The point is that

we are treating -- dealing with the social phenomenon. It is global,

there are a lot of people involved with it under a lot of people done

to it. Which is why the point about Pakistan is terribly important. My

experience in the past has been in Somalia, and Afghanistan, these are

countries that are dysfunctional. Pakistan is heading in that

direction. How do you see the threat? You report across the

region, you live in the Gulf and you can understand their lack of

stability in Syria. This is something that I think is baffling

to the West. The fact that these people are willing to die. If you

look at the attack in Algeria, it wasn't about the attack on the gas

plant which was pretty brutal. It wasn't about ideology or religion,

it was a mercenary attack. It is a result as a result of the Gaddafi

regime. Mali on the verge of being app state -- feels state. And Yemen,

and these people get inspiration from the ease clergymen or shakes

who are spewing vitriol. The number of hits for Almaty who is on

YouTube -- and Awlaki. It has gone up. In the case of what happened

and Algeria, you have a one-night cigarette smuggler who was making

money. -- One eyed. Her it in these fields States you have a mish-mash.

It is not just failed states. The IRA was involved in drug-dealing as

much as I was in politics. Terrorism and crime is not just

focused on field States. Al-Qaeda is different from the ivory in the

state that it was an organisation that had certain demands that can

be met in this world. Al-Qaeda is a different type of organisation.

is very decentralised. Single people have tried to go out,

thinking they have been inspired by the rhetoric of some clerics. I

think that has become the worry. These loan individuals who go out

and they tried that in New York a few months ago. It is not that

difficult to kill innocent people if you want to do so? No, not on a

large scale. Her if you are feasts -- if you are no freelance lunatic,

you can do this. We have seen people getting guns who are not

radical lysed. To come back to counter terrorism and the way it

has been formulated, there is the rogue killer, he is out there. It

is interesting that on a whole, the plots that have been seen to be the

most potentially serious in the UK, have always involved groups. That

is part of the profile. There is a group mentality. There is a group

mentality and there are other things in the profile. They are

outside the mainstream of their own communities. Her that is terribly

important. That is one of the reasons why the communities

themselves have limited access often to the intelligence that is

their the most value. The people that other likely terrorists are

keeping things secret from their own communities. There is not that

there is a great pool of discussion going on. How it is not people who

are social outcasts. We had a group of doctors in Glasgow.

Professionally qualified. They were living in council flats which they

used as bomb factories. Let's move on. 10 years ago the world was

preparing for war in Iraq. Many hundreds of thousands marched in

London and elsewhere. But the war against Saddam Hussein was fought,

yet what are the consequences now? How do you think it seems now as

people look at the political I think it is not much safer for

Iraqi people. Yes, there is more oil production coming up, but is it

filtering back to the communities? There is massive corruption,

bureaucracy. A lot of companies operating the have chosen to make

deals with Pakistan. It remains to be seen which way it will go.

Relations got with neighbours, particularly Torquay. The whole

situation that Syria, there are a lot of the regional issues that

play. I do not think the world is necessarily safer. Can you see the

world a safer? If you're writing the history of this, you could see

George W Bush handed a major victory to the enemy. Unfortunately,

Iraq in these last couple of years has fallen off the radar or fire

diplomats. Most of Baghdad news bureaux have closed. This

sectarianism now you have in Iraq is increasing again. If the

minority is protesting almost daily. Yes, it is dangerous. You have to

remember what the original impetus was? There was going to be created

a fledgling democratic society in Iraq which would some higher, they

knew the risk they were taking by getting rid of so Dame -- Saddam

Hussein. But at the same time, they were supposed to be creating a

situation where there would be a democratic situation could act as a

model for their area. The invaded and then they got out. What

happened was the failed at nation- building, which they had said they

would do. Paid just abandon the whole effect and the end result was

inevitable. I still believe that in 20 years' time, there will be

something of a democratic society in Iraq. It will taking up a

generation at least, but I do still believe that a establishing

democratic societies and institutions in these countries is

the only way. They might not be an Iraq in 20 years. The tribal

problems in those areas and the sectarian problems are a trapdoor

and something will have to be done. As with all foreign interventions,

one benefits from the short period in which the outside air plays a

role, but that in many issues quickly. But can egg become the

beneficiary of the broader Arab Spring phenomenon? It seems to me

distressingly unlikely. It seems to me it has become rather an island,

not subject to the same trends as exist in other countries. Rather

unenlightened, such a short time after it appeared it would become

more enlightened. I feel uncertain about which direction it is going

in. It is an irony that Iraqis can be very successful around the world,

but unsuccessful in their countries. Yes, they count. The level of

violence recently, but it is not reported. It is in all other

interests, because Iraq is going to it account for hour 45 % of her

energy demands over the next decade. Gradually they have infrastructure

issues that one say resolve, and it is not true, the Americans did not

get most of there oil. The companies operating there are

Chinese and Japanese and British Petroleum. Iraq is very important

for the future security of Orrell supply and if it does disintegrate,

it would be very interesting to see the Kurds could go ahead. If the

go-ahead with an independent pipeline through the north, that

will be a big game changer. It would be as they get more autonomy.

Two of the most obvious casualties in terms of reputation would be

Tony Blair and George W Bush. Tony Blair's reputation has not really

recovered. Neither has George to play you push's. There are others

who will insist it has the right thing to do, but down in history,

it will not be treated so kindly. You were not a great fan of Tony

Blair anyway, but do you are agree with that? Really very hard to

predict how this will look in 10 or 15 or 20 years' time. It was a

horrendous gamble. The whole expedition became discredited, but

at the same time, when you look back, Saddam Hussein was causing

genocide against his own people, it was not just weapons of mass

destruction, there was a possible moral case for removing that

Government. But that was not the case that was made. No, but it was

part of the argument. That the minorities within Iraq needed

protecting. We have always set in these situations that there was

this hall class of politically sophisticated, educated people who

would be prepared to go back. The Iraqi diaspora was going to return

home and create stability and the beginnings of democracy. That did

not happen and for that, we are really culpable. Just one other

thought. 10 years ago, a lot of people marched against this war and

you talk to some of them now, they will say, no one listened to was.

What irritated them about the nature of democracy is you do not

have quite the voice you think you have. Yes, the marches across

Europe were stunning in terms of the numbers they are true, get the

leaders felt they could go ahead with what they did. The hope would

be that they could nation build and prove them wrong. But they didn't.

You cannot have a Government policy determined by marching in the

streets. You could turn out an extraordinary number of people in

the street for the restoration of capital punishment. But Government

policy has to be determined by the democratic process, not by the

number of people you can get to turn out in the street. Silvio

Berlusconi is a bit of a puzzle. Outside Italy he is generally

regarded as a joke - or worse. The bunga bunga prime minister with

dodgy friends and an interesting social life. Inside Italy he is

still loved by those who saw him as a saviour of the nation. As he

tries, like Frank Sinatra, just one more comeback, what are we to make

of Mr Berlusconi? He is a symptom of the perpetual crisis that faces

Italian politics. The old love Italy, we all love the food and the

country. In a way, all the love its constant, unsettled nature.

Berlusconi's success has depended on the floors of Italian political

culture and Italian political life. Clearly there are people he think

he is adorable and there are people who cannot stand the sound of his

name. He does create the extreme, is he good for Italy? I think one

has to go back to the conditions that preceded his at last downfall,

because he has had several. He really was very discredited with

regard to what he would do for the economy. That was the crucial thing,

would he take the steps to European Central Bank was calling for? No,

and high not? From that perspective, he would be very bad news if he

were to be re-elected. underestimate what a great

communicator he is. His charm, his humour, his self-deprecation which

does not translate easily into English. He is now it anti-European

enough to say to people he will stand up to the frightening people

in Brussels. As far as we can see, there is not

going to be a majority, there will be a coalition. He may be in it. He

has not really gone away. You can be a great communicator when you

own the media. That is not so hard. When he burst on the scene 20 years

ago, it is not that he was completely devoid of ideas, he was

a showman and a charmer. He had a plan for a comic reforms that would

have been sensible at the time, but he delivered on none of them. --

economic reforms. To you come from a society in the United States

where there is constantly it a search from someone who will rescue

the country from politics as usual. Somebody outside politics. But it

never wins. But there is a hankering in a lot of democracies

for somebody a bit different. Italians do not take their national

Government very seriously. At least he was not owned by the Mafia. The

point is that Italians are much more or local. It is their regional

Government, their local community and their families. They are

resigned to the fact that the National Government is a joke, that

is one of the reason they are so pro-European. Now there is at

professional comedian running. So maybe he will be in the coalition.

Apparently he never makes it television appearances.

Sounds like the way ahead. It is one of the biggest economies in

Europe and seems to be getting on quite well. Clearly there is a

great hole in Brussels that the they will be able to continue. The

credibility of Brussels, there is a referendum on that as part of the

election. There is a real sense of Brussels being where there is

credibility and domestic politics in Italy being something of a joke,

Ince the running of a comedian as a candidate. The Tuscans have nothing

in common with the Neapolitans. There is a real North South divide.

80 not have a conception of unity, the only became a unified nation in

the 1870s. It is not that Britain, which has had a national identity

for hundreds of years. We will leave it there. We all agree with