08/06/2013 Dateline London

the hour including the latest on Nelson Mandela. Now it is time for

Syria, has it reached a turning point? The demonstrations in Turkey,

is Taksim Square the new Terrier Square. And Britain's Labour Party

says it will cap welfare will stop Alex Dean joins me, Abdel Bari

Atwan, Dmitry Shishkin and Emily Kallis scanner. Good to see you. The

forces of President Assad triumphed this week in the battle for... Does

this mark a turning point in the crisis and does it embroil Lebanon

on even more deeply? Do you see this as a very important success for

President Assad? After two depressing years of President Assad

where he lost half of his country to the rebels, the victory is a

political boost to President Assad. We are seeking a political

settlement for the conflict in Syria. It was depressing for him and

he was smiling and he was extremely happy hoping that he will gain more

success, more victories and other battles. He is sending his troops to

Aleppo, to other parts of Syria, hoping to gain more grounds. When he

goes to Geneva, to the conference, he will be in a strong bargaining

position. In terms of the wider conflict and the use of Hezbollah

are in Syria and the fears in Lebanon that they will revisit the

Civil War, what do you make of that? The conflict was a turning

point. Has the law has a huge experience in Street Wars. That is

why Assad managed to gain success. 2000 fighters made a difference in

this war. Previously most of the wars, the Syrian RB fought against

the rebels and loss. -- the Syrian army. What will happen in Lebanon is

very crucial. The Saudi Embassy in Lebanon issued a statement urging

all the Saudi people to go back to their country immediately because

Lebanon could be a very dangerous place in the coming days. Has below

are intervening could be counter-productive for the Lebanese

this humanitarian capacity fee and the UN saying they need millions of

dollars and access. We are spectators and IM aware of the

expertise at and danger. -- I am aware. It wasn't just a moral or

political victory for President Assad, it was a strategic one. It

was so close to the border and it is the obvious place for President

Assad to get material and men and manpower from Hezbollah. It clears

the way for him to take on Hommes. Thirdly, it sits between Damascus

and the coast. For some time President Assad has not been able to

access with ease the waterway. The last point is that setting aside

Western criticism, there are dangers that this can backfire, this

alliance with has below. The Israelis maintain that only briefly

the rebels seized the crossing point in the cease-fire line between

Israel and Syria. If those things are happening anti-war drugging in

people from outside the conflict, you attract the active interest of

the many people who are anti-Hezbollah. Turkey has been

dragged in. You lived in Damascus for a while. How do you think this

is being viewed by the government in Istanbul? They have their own

problems. The Turkish government is part of the problem. Turkey already

asked Assad to step down. They have to in -- increased the public

pressure against the Assad regime. From the point of Turkish people,

there is no other option. It has two end that way? From the Turkish

perspective, it doesn't... It is in terms of political, Turkey is

becoming polarised by Simeon conflict. The Syrian conflict is

polarising opinion in Turkey. If Assad goes, that is one step but the

real question is what would follow? We have five different groups of the

opposition with slightly different agendas, some of which note Turkish

government could accept. Turkey carries on to be the voice of the

SUNY Muslims. It is more important to see who will be close to the

political agenda? One of the things that often happens in these

discussions is the finger-pointing of Russia. Putin has been

consistently immovable mess. He is one of political leaders who if

stuck to a particular point will stick to it for as long as it takes.

Syria and Assad was one of those points. Militarily, Russia was

supporting Syria quite significantly. We heard about the

anti-missile defences that have already been deployed to Syria. Some

sources says it was contradictory. The fact that Russia keep supporting

the government in Damascus irrespective of the situation on the

ground, but preparing the country to retaliate against the potential of

attention -- potential invasion. Putin cannot not support Assad

because there are repercussions for the human side. I see that point.

Whatever we think of Russia's motives, they have an argument which

is that the opposition can -- contains some unpleasant people and

there maybe blowback. That is why Russia's was ambiguous about the

political settlement saying that it needs to be, you remember, they

talked about political settlement but disagree. Is there any chance

that Geneva will do much to cool this? I don't believe so. As a

victory, this will make Assad in a stronger position and believe him --

believe in himself. He thinks he can win now? He believes he can win and

he enjoys the full support of Russia and Iran. The position, they are not

going to Geneva and less Assad will step down. I wondered how you feel,

we will come onto Turkey in a moment, when you hear the stories of

what's happening to the children come you see this great country

killing its children and falling apart. There is an underestimation

of Assad's power. They thought it would collapse like Tunisia. This

wasn't the case. I was in Egypt's three days ago and I met President

more and he told me that he enjoyed the support of the Army and his own

people. We cannot say to him that he should go. He is completely

different and also he has a strong head. He is not easy to be pushed

out of power. His people feel those who support and will see reprisals.

The protests over Istanbul's Taksim Square becomes more significant and

a direct challenge to the Prime Minister with some comparing them to

an old-fashioned sultan. What is going on in Turkey, why the

discontents? It is a secular society and why has it given much

prosperity? In terms of getting the army out of politics and having a

flourish in democracy, what is going on? It is a turning point for Turkey

as well. We see the Turkish Street. He managed to neutralise power.

People feel frustrated by the recent process. They'll feel they are not

represented well in the public and parliament and media. They went out

and protested and it became a huge turning point of the Turkish

politics. As you say, it is not just about a lovely park and a great

square, Turkey is about something much bigger. Turkey now jails more

journalists than any country in the world including China. That seems

extraordinary. Turkey is the leading place for putting journalists in

jail. They say they are behind bars which is more than China, Iran or

Russia. If they are behind bars, the rest of the journalists in Turkey

are scared because if they reported the wrong way, they might end up in

jail. What has been going on in the streets, all across the country,

they prefer to air the cooking programmes instead of showing the

demonstrations. But why? Because many people are in jail and if they

speak up they are phrased to lose their jobs. In 2009, the Turkish

media company was fined $2.5 million. It becomes clear that you

have two toe the line. Is this an antsy movement? His political party

has won three elections. People are frustrated by how he runs the

country. There are different opposition is coming together. They

are increasingly concerned how he brings in his own beliefs on the

country. Sometimes I feel as if we are discretion in Russia. It is a

heavy-handed policy and total disregard to any public consultation

about what country needs to grow. We are talking about the approach. He

thinks he can do whatever he can. Another question which we might

discuss is what happens in 2015 when he is meant to step down? There is

talk about him changing constitution, moving from

Parliamentary Republic to presidential republic. Now you are

talking about Putin estimation mark -- Putin! . I think that red Square

potentially will not be like that after two weeks of protests.

around the Arab world, Turkey has been saying, look at democracy, the

modern Islamic government, it works well in Turkey, maybe we should

follow it. Turkey a role model because many people believe they can

do it. -- Turkey was a role model. In Tunisia, they consider him as a

leader, as inspiration to them. If there is a setback, definitely this

will be reflected on the streets of eejit, Tunisia, Yerevan -- Yemen,

Syria, everywhere. I was attending the conference six

months ago, in an Kara, -- in an Kara, and by Minister Erdogan

delivered his speech, and he was talking as a sultan. He was so

confident that he was the man to bring back the Ottoman Empire. That

is how I felt when I was there. People were not concerned about how

he was elected. The country is totally undemocratic. There is a bit

of the Ottoman Empire here. He seems to like that romanticism. We are a

long way from Ataturk. This is a regime that talks about banning

alcohol, and blurring it out on television. They put up signs in

public places saying, be moral. If it is not culture wars, it is

certainly culture skirmishes. Secularism is not on this

government's agenda. But economic growth still is. They have had much

faster growth than any other European country in the last ten

years. The markets do not like the protests. There was a big dip before

that. The fascinating thing for us is that we are used to nations

either access thing the parcel -- accepting the parcel of Western

goods, or not. What you do with a hybrid regime that embraces some of

these things? That is the philosophical issue which is quite

interesting. The reaction to the protest is just bullying. Ten a

penny despots and repression. We have to hope that is not the line

they go down. In terms of economic development,

Taksim Square and building a new airport, a new canal for the

Bosporus, these things which are driven through which might help the

economy, the people object to them. There is no consensus. All of these

projects are run without any consensus or any consultation. This

is the first time that Turkish businessmen attended a

demonstration. Some leading Turkish businessmen were on the march.

this is where the perils are becoming so evident. The

middle-class, the thinking class, the creative class, goes against the

regime, which arguably has been providing all the nice things for

them in the last 15 years. But I also think that other projects

coming up over the next two years come to mind. There is a lot of

discontent. Prime Minister Erdogan talked about internal and external

conspiracy against him. I cannot exclude that, because the Minister

Erdogan created a role model and we have to remember that he got a

mandate and was elected three times. He achieved a miracle, an

economic miracle for the country. We are always looking at third World

countries. He made Turkey the 70th strongest economy in the world. We

have to be fair to the man. He is under pressure from his

constituents. Maybe he got it wrong, but there are definitely huge

pressures from Syria, from Syrian supporters inside Turkey, Alawites,

pressure from the Kurds, pressure from the West. We have to understand

the man's situation. Of course there is pressure from Syria, there are

400,000 refugees within Turkey. But I take the opposite point of view.

If he pursues internet censorship and banned social media, what a

terrible message it sends to moderate Islam. Maybe it's the case

of, all present politicians' lies come to an end at some point.

Regardless of what they have done in the past.

We only have a funicular. Here at home, the British Labour Party has

been in some trouble about what to do over welfare. The Welfare Party,

not the Labour Party, as David Cameron sarcastically put it this

week. Labour has been talking about capping welfare and being tough on

spending. This is Labour positioning themselves for the next general

election. I think we are in permanent campaign mode now. The

campaigning has never stopped. If you combine a position which no

government has an overall majority, with a fixed term parliament,

everybody is constantly campaigning. You can even campaign against your

coalition partners. That has certainly been happening. But Labour

has to move on welfare. The Conservative policy on the welfare

cap is the most popular policy, not just in this government, but since

policy polling began. It is wildly popular, in a way that transcends

party politics, and Labour is simply in the wrong position. And they have

recognised that and they are trying to lance the boil. The scramble away

from their position may be undignified, but Ed Miliband is

doing the right thing when he seeks changes and get away from the

traditional Labour position on welfare. Just as Tony Blair had to

get away from the idea of Labour on spending in 1997, and just as David

Cameron had to get away from the idea that the Tories could not be

trusted on the NHS in 2010, Miliband have to lance the boil on welfare.

Many viewers of your programme may not like it, but the Welfare Party

is a great attack line, and it is working. And that is working within

Labour. They get it. How do you see this? Ed Balls wants to be

Chancellor of the Exchequer and he is saying that they are going to be

tough on spending. They are putting the flesh on the bones of what their

policies might be. Yes, but they do not reveal everything, because they

are afraid that other parties might steal it. But they give a hint. They

are changing and they are willing to borrow for the first time and to

spend in the right direction. Also, they want to keep certain

Conservative policies, especially the welfare state policies, like

keeping child benefit policies as it is said that the rich do not get it.

Wealthy pensioners, also, should not get the fuel subsidy. It seems they

are adjusting their policies and they are trying to change and

transform the image from a party which is overspending, accruing

debts, to a party which understands the changes in the nation.

politics, people try to draw distension is between each other,

but behind the scenes, people know that on all parties welfare is

broken. There is a degree of consensus that people don't talk

about. That is exactly the point. People understand the economic

situation the United Kingdom is in. Any party in power in the next ten

years will need to tackle this. Everyone understands there is a

question of how to tackle this long-term work listeners --

unemployment. I understand, I lost my child benefit because of the

salary cap, and it was absolutely fair. I did not have a sense of any

kind of injustice. What I'm trying to say is that the devil is in the

detail, which kind of policies he will pursue -- they will pursue.

Everybody agrees we need to cut, but exactly what we need to cup is an

interesting question. How do you see this? This is clearly the debate of

the next election. What you do about the economy, welfare and getting

people back into work? It is important in terms of the

middle-class. What makes the UK middle-class, I think the problem is

harder to tackle. It is almost impossible to have one thing to

solve the problems. They should be specific. We have about 30 seconds

left. Isn't it also true that behind-the-scenes, although the

Conservatives are committed to not cutting universal benefits for

old-age pensioners, many conservatives recognise that if a

mistake? Yes, and I think the cuts will have to grow a bit because of

the economic reality. On the other hand, Ed Balls refuses to admit that

the Labour Party made mistakes in the past. The Tories will continue

to paint them into the corner, because if you won't admit the