28/12/2013 Dateline London

There's a full bulletin of news at the top of the hour. Now on BBC

News, Dateline London. Hello, and welcome to Dateline

London and our top team of predictors and prognosticators will

talk us through the delights in store in 2014. Will the year ahead

finally see the Euro crisis go away, or a different EU crisis over

immigration and reform? Will there be peace across the Middle East, or

at least in Syria? Will Barack Obama perform a miracle and get the

Obamacare system up and running? And will the United Kingdom remain

united, or will Scotland vote for independence? My guests are Eunice

Goes, who is a Portuguese writer and broadcaster. Stryker McGuire of

Bloomberg Markets. Abdel Bari Atwan who is an Arab writer. And Alex

Deane of Conservative Home. Britain first, what are the chances

Scotland will want to declare independence? What would be the

consequences for British politics? And what else should we be wary of

in a pre-General election year? Scottish independence, one of the

big events this year. Is it fair to say, most English people have not

paid much attention to it? Over the last few years, there has been an

increasing tension amongst English voters about the amount of money

going north of the border. It has been stirred up by some politicians.

The Conservative Party has an in-built disadvantage because of the

way that Scotland votes, generally helping Labour. But all of the

polling suggests they will not vote to become independent. Not much of

-- not much -- no matter how much of an emotional pull there is to do so.

David Cameron has said it is ahead over hearts thing. I would hope

there was a bit of hearts attached to the union as well, the great

achievements that have been one bar aren't two nations working in

tandem. -- have been achieved. It is something that plays quite big

in a pre-election year. He did not get the boundary changes through.

Some countries have dispassionate systems whereby boundary changes are

approved by a third party, hours are approved by parliament. Even if

Scotland does remain independent, there will be no change. 2014 will

be seen as a prism of the 20 15th general election. -- 2015 general

election. The discussion is whether UKIP will come first in the European

elections. That will create a crisis.

How do you see the year ahead for British politics? Those are the main

issues. Underlying it all is the economic thing. The image of Britain

is very weak now. On the whole international scene, you do not have

a strong leader, a strong Prime Minister. You have a hesitant Prime

Minister. The economy is the basic thing. When I say weak leadership,

when Britain was vigorous and was a drive to intervene in Syria, as they

did in Libya, suddenly the cooled down and retreated completely. The

second thing is the economy. It is very problematic, the national debt

is very high. Britain is divided here. And again hesitant. Whether it

be a European or not, whether they want to stay in the European union

or not. This kind of hesitation destroys the image of Britain.

Coming to Scotland, I believe if this referendum took place ten years

ago, I believe the outcome would be different. But small states suffer

in Europe when the economic crisis hits. Scots people are very wise.

They say, why should we have independence? But they could join

the oil producers in the Arab states! I do not know if Alex

Salmond has considered that. How do you see British politics in the year

ahead? That question of weak leadership, if you have a coalition

government, with you always have weak leadership? I do take his point

about leadership, but I think that is connected in part to the state of

Britain. This country is a less powerful country than it used to be.

Just take the point about Syria. There was a hue and cry in this

country about intervening in Syria. But it did not happen because that

meant they wanted the United States to intervene. The UK cannot

intervene. It does not have the power any more. The military power

is declining. It did not happen because the government did not make

the case in Parliament. Think parliamentarians take the decision

to go to war seriously. Tony Blair made the case in the House of

Commons, David Cameron did not. Tony Blair was able to do that because

the United States had already decided to intervene. In 2014, the

weakness is also true of the United States. Look what happened the last

time. Iraq, Afghanistan. The Presidents does not cry out for

intervention, they cry out for caution, for hesitancy. Intervention

does not have to be bombing people. There are other ways. In 2014, there

are other things which Europeans could have done to help the people

of Syria, other than military action. Of course, they could have

taken more refugees. In terms of how you see British politics, what do

you think? It will be a year of preparation for the general

election. David Cameron will be looking at the referendum in

Scotland cautiously. It is unlikely that the yes will win, but the

campaign has to be managed well. But this question will be posed in ten

years because there is an interesting generational divide.

Younger people are more keen on independence than older people. If

the question is asked again in ten years, there might be a different

answer. There will be changes in the constitutional make-up of the United

Kingdom. Britain is becoming more federal. Scotland is on the verge of

getting more powers, wheels are -- Wales is on the verge of getting

more powers. And there will be more changes in England and Britain in

the next ten years. You have not mentioned what the

Labour Party would have to do. What is Ed Miliband's task in 2014 given

that the opinion polls say that the right wing parties are ahead of

Labour. There was an interesting reaction to his speech, the speech

that Ed Miliband made in October. He has two build on that. He has two

raises profile and come up with something more visionary. -- he has

to raise his provile. -- profile. I say Ed Miliband in that role of

carrying on with business. I think they are betting on that. Betting on

small, gradual changes to win the election. Looking ahead,

politically, no one has mentioned the Liberal Democrats yet. We all

laugh about the Liberal Democrats, but they are now occupying the

centre which is always elect only -- electorally rich. They are the butt

of jokes, but they could be in the next coalition government. They

could go either way. With either of the other two parties. They are by

political -- bi-political. Angela Merkel has been re-elected,

Ireland coming out of trouble, how do you see 2014 for the European

countries? It has been suggested that social unrest in Portugal,

Italy, Spain is possible, even likely? I do not believe that

because social unrest would have had to have happened by now. The rate of

unemployment is declining. People are getting used to the situation.

That does not mean the end of the crisis. It is going to be a very

long crisis. Particularly for the countries are affected by austerity.

Southern Europe and Ireland so almost 1 million people emigrating,

leaving their own countries and going elsewhere, perhaps never to

return again. We are talking about university graduates, the talented

workforce. For southern Europe, all these political advances of the past

30 years, it is a huge setback. Poverty has come back as we had

during the Dick leadership. -- dictatorship. There will be

demonstrations, but people are far too weak. People feel that they

cannot do anything. If you ask people what they want, they want

money to spend in a shopping centre. There are three major challenges

facing Europe next year. And possibly the year after. The first

one is how to be formed the European Union. -- to be reforming. The

second challenge is the changing of the political map in Europe. The

populists are prevailing. UKIP is moving ahead and taking a lot of

popularity. Marie the -- Marie LePen in France, there is a lot of talk of

her winning the next election. Thirdly, immigration. The movement

of people in Europe. Outside immigration coming from the south.

There is a belt of failed states around Europe. For the first time,

we can say this, especially in the south of Europe. Immigration cannot

be controlled into Europe. There is a civil war in Europe, another war

spreading to Lebanon. This is the belt which is around Europe. And

also the poverty of states in Africa around Europe. These are the

challenges facing Europe in the coming year and a year after. So

they are going to handle that. And how to keep Britain in the European

union. I agree, the economic problem, unemployment is better now.

Except for Spain where it is very high.

You raised the leadership question before, the leadership of Europe.

Can Engel on their -- can Angela Merkel lead? They have improved

quicker than everybody else in the crisis but that has ebbed away and

the other major powerhouse, France, is in terrible trouble. If they can

find more ways to mess up their economy, they would adopt them as

well. The numbers are in the toilet and approval ratings are dire.

London is increasingly a hub for management consultants and anyone

who will get a higher rate than in France. It is your point about

talented and bright people fleeing the failing economies. The French

are pushing their brightest and best out by pushing them in tax. On your

staff about the three age challenges, I don't disagree with

any of that but albeit on a populist movement, some of the major parties

have got themselves to blame for leaving fertile political ground and

occupied for UKIP and other parties. The Conservatives delivered in

part. On your final point, what have we got to do to keep written in? He

must bear in mind there is a number of us who are on a hopefully mature

basis, we don't want to be in it any more and we are not restricted to

UKIP. Having said all of that, it's interesting to remember that two

years ago, a lot of people, including IBO sitting around this

table, were talking about the dissolution of these eurozone, the

collapse of the EU. Sometimes we underestimate the heart

that is behind the concept of the European Union, for all of its

failings, there remains this desire to keep things together so that when

there was the Euro crisis, Europe, led by Germany, pulled together in a

financial way and build-out anybody who needed it. It failed off -- it

bailed out the banks. It is important to say this because

it wasn't bailing out economies that were doing relatively well. Look at

Ireland and Spain in particular. But the Greeks... Greece was the only

exception. And Merkel saved German banks. The bailouts have been a

bumping business for the German economy.

But do you accept the point that the EU has proved more resilient?

It has and it is a miracle. Merkel has not really led. She has muddled

through and made lots of mistakes along the way. It is a miracle it

has survived. It is a one-man show in Europe, it

is a show. There is no leadership. Look at France. He is not a leader.

Look at David Cameron, with respect to my friend Alex. There is no

leadership. This is the problem. It is a one-man show, Barack Obama.

In 2014, we will be looking back 100 years to the beginning of the First

World War and some of the lessons we can learn from that and also a

thought that in 1913 OBE could have predicted the catastrophe. Interview

minutes we have left, could we talk a little bit about what we predict

for the year ahead, some of the less easy things to understand. In the

Arab world, festival, reflecting on what has happened in Lebanon on Mac

-- Lebanon and it looks like it could be a grim year.

Negotiation and confrontation. Negotiation is between Iran and the

superpowers so we know there is agreement. There is other

negotiation now between them and the Israelis. Confrontation - we have a

huge confrontation between Saudi Arabia and Iran with Syria and

Lebanon so the whole of the Middle East is a mess. There was a car bomb

it a couple of days ago in Lebanon and it is very frightening because

that can spill over to the neighbouring countries. It could be

Iraq and is could be Jordan soon. Most of them are failed states. We

have Libya and Syria and Lebanon. Egypt could be seen and that is the

biggest... Sectarianism is the other would

which makes it much more difficult to resolve because these are not

straightforward political differences.

This is the problem and the media is playing a major role in inflaming

this. Arab media. There was media inflaming problems

but now the Arab media, which is very advanced, is actually inflaming

the sectarian divisions and this is dangerous.

People in the Gulf in particular and Saudi Arabia and Lebanon are now

talking about divisions. They are not talking about left and right,

they are talking about sectarian divisions and the hatred is

escalating. You can see today today the Shia Muslims were accused of the

car bomb. We don't know what will happen and there is no solution.

There is no talks. They are talking to the Americans successfully and

they managed to reach an agreement that the Saudis and uranium don't

want to talk -- in aliens. I'm afraid there is nothing good

coming out of South Sudan situation and a tax on Christian communities

will be followed by increasingly strident pro-Christian rhetoric from

Western countries. Domestic predictions-I think the coalition

will stay together. There was speculation about them coming

apart. It won't. In January I think we will see an apology from the

Labour Party to Thomas the Tank Engine, which in the dying days of

2013 they have accused of being sexist. It is the worst bit of PR

from a government in a long time. The coaches are appalled by the...

You can't mess with Thomas the Tank Engine.

You that says it all, really! I was trying to think of a link

between that and Obama's 2014. In terms of a prediction, Obamacare,

which nobody can define and nobody knows what it is, but actually,

having been back there recently, it is working in many ways. This idea

of insurance exchanges, competition among insurance companies.

Bizarrely, is working but it's working slowly and getting bad PR. I

the end of next year, I think it will have a better great than it

does now. A point I wanted to make, we've talked about leadership and

hesitancy. One of the things to remember is that the rise of Asia

and the Asian economies has made leadership in the so-called West

much more difficult than it used to be. The world is much more

complicated because of globalisation. We don't have to

clear superpowers any more, the way we did 20 or 30 years ago. It is

corrugated and you end up with leaders that seem hesitant and

waffle, whether it's a bummer for Cameron or -- whether it is Barack

Obama or Cameron or Merkel. Or the guy from France... I forget!

One point we haven't touched on which could be important is Japan

and China, the confrontation potential. The countries from

outside that area don't really remember the names of the islands.

That has the potential to change the entire world if it goes wrong.

It does. I don't it will get to that point -- I don't think it will get

to that point but living here, we know that islands are very sensitive

things. Something like that could. Whether that would be the equivalent

of what triggered World War I, for example, which was also a kind of

accidental... And they thought it was irrational

that anybody would go to a great war over...

Those islands are bound up in emotion and they are bound up with

right to take minerals. As a counterpoint to week leadership, I

think 2014 could be the year of the people in the sense that week

leaders are a sign that leaders who have to be more accountable and

transparent. We have to pay attention to what

voters want so this could be a triumph of democracy as politicians

have to pay attention to the voters. There has been a lot of

unrest over the world and discontent. It a lot of voter apathy

and people who are fed up with our politics. And this prediction on

wishful thinking on people power, maybe Edward Snowden, who did us a

great favour in bringing greater transparency and knowing more about

our leaders, maybe we will get an amnesty or a pardon from the US to

go home. That would be my wishful thinking, rather than prediction.

I believe next year could be the year of China because... You say

that every year! You can see China achieve a huge

economic success and now they are concentrating on politics. They are

involved in the Middle East and our construct an -- and are constructing

a vigorous foreign policy. America is withdrawing from the Middle East

and concentrating on... We will leave it there.

I noticed none of the predicted England will win the World Cup! We

will see. That is it from us for this year. We will be that next year

and next week at the same time. You can contact us on Twitter. Goodbye.

Much quieter conditions for this weekend as we get respite from the

storms and lighter winds across the country and a bit more in the way of