04/01/2014 Dateline London

There's a full bulletin of news at the top of the hour, now on BBC News

Dateline London with Gavin Esler. Hello and welcome to Dateline

London. The fear of immigration in Britain and the European Union. The

killings in South Sudan and ethnic tensions. Plus, is 2014 the year the

worst is over for the British economy? My guests today are

Stephanie Baker of Bloomberg Markets, Nesrine Malik who is a

Sudanese journalist, Abdallah Homouda who is an Egyptian writer

and David Aaronovitch of the Times. British newspapers have been full of

concern - real or imaginary - that many immigrants from Romania and

Bulgaria are on their way to take British jobs or claim British

welfare. How far do politicians have to react to public concerns, and how

far does immigration contribute to the British public's rather dim view

of the European Union? Is this a real concern? They are really

concerned about it. Whether or not their concern is well-placed is

different. I am a pretty well-known supporter of freedom of movement and

of migration because what tends to happen is that people go to where

the jobs are for them, they tend to be the most motivated people anyway

so what happens is economies become strengthened as a result of people

coming in. We have had this movement from the old notion of immigration

words these were horrible foreigners who were somehow inferior to us to a

sort of inferiority complex to immigrants. They are pricing our

young people out of jobs and so on because they are better at them all

will take the jobs for less money. The truth is probably be our net

beneficiaries from migration but certain places at the bottom of the

labour market, their rears and impact on poor people with less

skilled jobs but that is not what people are concerned about. People

are most concerned about immigration for the country but strangely enough

polls showed they are not desperately worried about

immigration in their own local area. That suggests is you are dealing

with a perception problem. In terms of politics, do you think that it is

possible for a politician in Britain to say and get elected and do very

well, say it is fine? You can perfectly well... Labour says we

have to apologise for past immigration although actually we do

not think it is wrong. But on the other hand, every time you make,

bring in a new measure to stop new migrants claiming benefits when very

few do anyway, the message that actually gets sent out is yes, this

is a big problem. Every time Labour apologises for immigration, I think

I see another percentage on the polls for UKIP rather than Labour.

Labour would be better off saying immigration is a good thing but the

main thing we want to talk about is the economy. This debate is not

confined to Britain but it is also Germany. Angela Merkel has broken

off her holiday to discuss it because within her own party this

has become a hot potato for exactly the same reasons - fear from people

from the poorer parts of Europe will take German jobs or German welfare.

What I am not sure about is how much of it is media driven and how much

is actual concerned. The two feed into each other. On the 1st of

January when journalists went to the airport to meet Bulgarians and

Romanians was really embarrassing. I thought this was a very bad luck for

the UK. I thought, actually, I am not sure of that is not just some

editor on a slow day thinking this would be a fun thing to do as

opposed to this being something that has bubbled up from the mainstream

of Britain. People are worried about immigration and there are social

tensions. The role of the media and the sensationalism of the story also

cannot be underestimated. You have seen Nigel Farage saying that in

times of refugees and people suffering from humanitarian

catastrophes in places like Syria, they should be accepted into Britain

and then going into reverse gear and sane Christians would be acceptable

to Britain. It is outrageous. The second thing is that the social

concerns about immigration are legitimate and politicians should

engage with them. Economic concerns about immigration are difficult to

explain because they are complicated and there is evidence that net

immigration has helped the economy. Social issues need to be addressed.

It is hard to talk to an English person who says, I need to feel like

I am in the UK, I think that is something politicians should take

seriously. It is also suggested that people who are in favour of free

movement of people are not the people most affected when immigrants

come into this country. I would agree with David. Most of the data

shows that immigration is a boon to economies. This country has an

ageing population. It needs a new young workforce to help cover the

expenses of increasing pensioners. The office of National statistics

came up with this figure that is somewhat telling. They estimated

that Britain needs 7 million migrants over the next 50 years to

keep the national debt down. Migrants are more likely to be

working, paying taxes, creating jobs and a lot of the Romanians already

here, working, a big chunk of them are educated and 85% are under the

age of 35. That is the kind of migration that Britain should be

encouraging and I think it is a mistake to pander to Nigel Farage.

Go back to the point I made to David but you do hear that argument in

some newspapers and other groups but you tend not to hear it from the

political classes because it is very unpopular. It is but it is a losing

game. The Conservative party pandering to UKIP is only handing

them greater power and legitimising the issue. Instead of saying this is

about our economy and the kind of country we want to be,

about our economy and the kind of making a big mistake by pandering to

UKIP on this. It is ironic that the problem of Eastern European

immigrants has been created by Britain's... And enthusiasm not

shared by other countries. The problem stems from the stereotyping

of the people you see at traffic lights trying to force the washing

of your Windows screen or walking with an empty paper cup begging.

This is not the whole picture. These people contribute to the economy.

The problem comes from the difficulty of Britain, which Britain

faces at this stage because they cannot profile the incoming people

within the EU legislation which allowed the freedom of movement.

There has to be some more clearance in addressing the issue, not leading

it to deep tabloids and far right to hijack it and create some kind of

enlightenment and learning amongst the people to accept there newcomers

and help them. Britain is one of the most tolerant countries towards

immigration regardless of the noises made now. The problem is how to use

them in, into the right position to make the contribution required.

Thousands of people are believed to have been killed in fighting in

South Sudan. Political rivalries appear to have aggravated

inter-ethnic tensions. Is the survival of Africa's newest nation

at risk? It is difficult to get some of the facts on the ground but it

does seem as if there has been a terrible amount of killing and that

the peace talks are going nowhere. It has been hard to get information

on the ground. There has been estimates of 1000-10,000 deaths

within the last few weeks. There are a bunch of correspondence in the

capital but it has been hard to get information. The problem in South

Sudan is that it is fundamentally a political problem of concentration

of power in the hands of the president. There are talks of it

being a coup when it was a dispute that escalated and then developed

along ethnic lines. I think even though there has spent a lot of

quite worrying reports from South Sudan about ethnic profiling and

people being tested by language before being killed, that in terms

of African conflicts, it is a record amount of time that has got these

two presidents already at the negotiating table. It is a miracle

and that is because it is of international pressure. This was a

state created on behalf of Christian missionaries, and a lot of dairy

powerful southern Sudan lobbying in the White House. The challenge now

is all the work that should have been done when the comprehensive

peace agreement was signed is going to be done now, needs to be done

now. It was a nation created from a referendum but there was no

political structure put in and there was no recognition of the fact that

South Sudan had its own problems. It was always cast as a victim of the

North but any scenario which said South Sudan should was not the good

guy would have to go deal with. The headlines of the New York Times says

the American administration is very concerned about the failure of its

newly created state to its liking. There was a great deal for

independence to take place. South Sudanese talk about the fact that

the country should have been under the auspices of the UN for at least

ten years. We should not forget the background of the ethnic and

political practices because each of the two protagonistss used to deal

with the North at the expense of each other prior to having their own

state. Actually it is a very difficult situation. If America

helps, it will be really a respite to 4.4 million people who are on

humanitarian aid. Tens of thousands, 200,000 displaced, tens

of thousands outside the country. The killings are not quantified as

correct yet. It is a very difficult situation but all this contributes

to the lack of vision in South Sudan as much as in the Sudan and also one

has not to forget the history to establish South Sudan and create

this kind of new instability is due to Western intervention in order to

wreck Sudan and prevent China taking the benefit of the Sudanese oil as a

part of the rush to Africa. Speaking of China, the national oil company

is one of the biggest investors in South Sudan and I think the risk now

is what started as a sort of political rivalry has now become an

ethnic conflict and that could descend into a conflict over the

country 's oil revenues. South Sudan is the thirds largest producer,

there is a lot of money for grabs. I think there are a lot of foreign

companies investing in oil in South Sudan and I think that can be used

as leveraged to bring the parties to the negotiating table and make sure

those were macro that is not used to fuel the conflict further.

Sometimes it is a lot easier to deal with the Chinese because what they

want is fairly clear. They want the resources and they are prepared to

pay for it. They can do a deal and they do not go on and on about human

rights in the way that the Americans on the British tried to do. Is that

a fair point? I wish that the Chinese government would care a

little bit more about human rights but I would agree with you, they are

very practical and they have got one clear rain but in this case, the

Chinese have urged both parties to come to the negotiating table. It is

an instance where you can get support from the United States,

France, broad-based international support for a peace process to bring

them all to the negotiating table. Stability is bad for business. I am

not going to claim to be an expert on South Sudan. Part of the problem

is that you can quite easily see why it was necessary, essential, for

South Sudan to be created and probably was too long delayed. And I

suppose in a sense you create an idealisation about what will happen

when something you have long sought for in terms of policy actually

takes place. And the situation is far more compact than that. Of

course, you put off looking at the problems of independence until you

have independence because in some ways, it seems pointless looking at

those problems when you have not cottage. It is highly problematic.

But since the issue has come up, I would markedly prefer the Compaq 's

dealings of British companies and British government -- complex, which

has some attitude towards human rights than countries that have no

attitude towards human rights, or rather deny them. It strikes me that

is not actually wear any future that is tolerable lies. I think the

danger now is this ethnic scenario develops and actually gains currency

and it would be disastrous because you are all right, international

pressure has got them to the negotiating table, if there is much

to lose, neither President or Vice President will have any interest in

war because the spoils will be very few. However, if there is a push for

an ethnic division of the spoils, handing out of warranty and pieces

of the cake, tried by tried, that establishes and validates it. We

need a political solution that quiet and down the tribal tension as

opposed to Stoke said and validates it.

We turn out to potentially the good news. One of the hopes for 2014 is

we may finally see the back of the international economic crisis. Is

Britain finally out of trouble or will the continuing rows prove the

biggest political story of the year? Are we right to be optimistic? A

year ago, people were irrepressibly gloomy.

Yes, there is no question, 2014 will be better than 2013. Economic growth

will be higher this year than last. But I think we have had five years

of inflation out facing wage growth and that is set to continue next

year. We have the sixth year of wage growth going behind inflation. I

think the Labour Party has done a remarkable job of reframing the

debate as one of a cost of living crisis and moving it away from the

Conservative charges that it was Labour that created this mess. I

think that issue is not going to go away. The cost of living crisis will

not go away, even if there is economic growth. On the other hand,

if you believe the bullish reductions and estimates, the UK

could have the fastest growing economy in the European Union. And

we will be by the end of the year the economy, the economy will be

back to pre-recession levels. The question is how does that trickle

down because I think some of the in employment has not been that

highly, considering the depth of the recession. -- unemployment. One of

the reasons for that is a lot of the jobs created have been part-time.

And so I think there is a risk that there will be an economic recovery

but the kind of economy we are getting is a sort of low-wage, low

productivity economy that only benefits asserting people.

Conventional wisdom is growing economies tend to benefit

governments in power, UKIP plus the Tories, you'll have more people in

this country telling the opinion polls that they are to the left of

-- right of centre. The Labour leader Neil polls is roughly half of

what it was a year ago. This is on the basis of poll trending -- the

Labour lead in the polls. What will happen in the meantime? There is a

very credible argument to be made that what the Conservative Party

needs is a steady but not high level of growth. If you get a high level

of growth, the question becomes, why don't I sharing the fruits of this

growth question mark if you have a low-level, but growth nevertheless,

it allows the governor to say we are turning the corner, don't spoil

things. -- the government. That is essentially the way that probably

the ground politics is to it. We are heading for another hung parliament,

probably. And you have probably mention this in a different

programme, nothing to do with the economy, but we have a Scottish

referendum this coming year which could completely wreck the British

constitution and the prospects for the 2015 election itself. People

have not talked about that. It would not be great for David Cameron

either, the by Minister who presides over the break-up of the United

Kingdom. -- the Prime Minister. In terms of the economy, one of the

interesting issues is there was a recent survey of business in Britain

suggesting that regulation, increased regulation, is one of

their big fears. It is hardly surprising when people think that

there are problems in the energy market, they look at major American

companies in particular which seem to be paying less, let's put it this

way, less than you would expect in terms of taxation in Britain and

that this thing that is causing great concern. There is a mistress

generally of the regulator, post-financial crisis, because

people feel it is either over regulated or underregulated and the

elite of the financial classes and the big banks and institutions are

need kids Pollard staged -- are in the pockets of politicians. The

interesting thing I think is that there is definitely recovery, things

are certainly better, but the next thing when that happens is if there

is a recovery, the first thing is that the stabilisers need to come

off. There has been a recovery because interest rates have been

kept artificially low for a long time. There is a peg on

unemployment. People are saying, it will be kicked

further down to 2016. The interesting thing is when there are

Green shoots of recovery, people will have to take the stabilisers

off the economy and then we are wobbly, the house market is

exploding, it has been 10% over the past six months, the south again is

leading it, there have been 45% of mortgages to first time buyer is,

people are screaming bubble already. I think it is so fascinating in the

UK that whenever there is a sense of recovery, and recovery in the

housing market, the first thing people think of, where is the next

crash? Before we have even seen it. People will start talking about that

soon. I beg to differ. I am on the side of caution. If one believes

what is going on in terms of figures, they indicate that

inflation will be estimated at 2.4% and the growth of the GDP is equal.

That will mean that real growth will be zero. If it is zero, there is no

real Green shoots germinating in the economy. And this is the problem.

This talk about growth and getting out of the recession, and all that,

it started in the beginning of December, and I see it as a part of

a Tory election strategy to create a feel-good factor in a certain way. I

am sorry, we are running out of time. We attempted to tell some

goodies. That is it for this week. We are back next week at the same

time. Thank you for watching and goodbye.

Hello and good morning. The wind is much lighter than it was yesterday.

The rain keeps stumbling down and that will have the biggest impact

this weekend. Not just rain today but the risk of some snow in the

north for a while and then more wet and windy weather coming in from the

Atlantic on Sunday. Today's rain has been heaviest in Dorset. Almost two