Browse content similar to 15/03/2014. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Welcome to dateline London. Crimea's campaign to leave Russia | :00:34. | :01:00. | |
and join the league training is neither legal nor wanted. Is | :01:01. | :01:09. | |
Vladimir Putin determined to carve up Ukraine? Isn't anything which | :01:10. | :01:12. | |
might make him think again? I suspect the answer is I yes, he is | :01:13. | :01:21. | |
determined. Yes, he is determined. He decided several weeks ago, and we | :01:22. | :01:27. | |
were discussing it, whether they would be in military intervention. | :01:28. | :01:35. | |
What will happen now, I think, is the referendum will go ahead, and | :01:36. | :01:50. | |
Vladimir Putin was take a step back and see what is going on. Foreign | :01:51. | :01:57. | |
powers will be see it is illegitimate and they don't | :01:58. | :02:01. | |
recognise it, but the practical things will come later. What will | :02:02. | :02:07. | |
happen later, all the supply routes go through Ukraine, still Russia | :02:08. | :02:13. | |
will eventually have to fund Crimea. It will become yet another region | :02:14. | :02:18. | |
that the Kremlin will have to delete a lot of money to. Another option | :02:19. | :02:29. | |
would be to freeze the situation like with other Soviet territories. | :02:30. | :02:36. | |
What is the great game yet? We have discussed endlessly about Putin | :02:37. | :02:43. | |
wanting his empire back, the soviet union empire collapsing was a | :02:44. | :02:52. | |
disaster, but is he an incremental list, or is he somebody who, the | :02:53. | :03:00. | |
more he eats, the hungrier he gets? Two important points. The first is | :03:01. | :03:03. | |
to do with internal situations in Russia. I think Putin specifically | :03:04. | :03:08. | |
sees everything which has been happening in Ukraine over the last | :03:09. | :03:11. | |
ten or so years as eight direct potential threat to the power in | :03:12. | :03:22. | |
Russia. If subsequently we can see that they can install another | :03:23. | :03:26. | |
government that foreign powers will recognise, if people in Russia start | :03:27. | :03:31. | |
thinking that protest, ten years of protest, can suddenly leapt to | :03:32. | :03:35. | |
change power, that is something the Kremlin should be extremely nervous. | :03:36. | :03:41. | |
Secondly is the international angle that internationally Russia always | :03:42. | :03:44. | |
maintained there needs to be some kind of of the zone between NATO, | :03:45. | :03:51. | |
which is still, there have been dozens of agreements between the | :03:52. | :03:55. | |
Russian military and NATO, it is still being seen widely as a | :03:56. | :04:00. | |
threat. Russia always wanted to have a buffer state, even the former | :04:01. | :04:04. | |
Eastern Bloc countries have become members. Russia Ukraine and Moldova | :04:05. | :04:10. | |
or almost like the last bastions of that. If suddenly Ukraine becomes a | :04:11. | :04:16. | |
part of it it is unacceptable... Part of NATO? It is completely | :04:17. | :04:22. | |
unacceptable. A lot of people were saying about Gorbachev that one | :04:23. | :04:29. | |
thing that he got completely wrong is that you never go to the Western | :04:30. | :04:38. | |
powers to say that nature does not expand at all. A dilemma for the | :04:39. | :04:42. | |
West is, broadly, what can you do, and, if you want Ukraine to survive | :04:43. | :04:47. | |
as an independent state, you may have to find a lot more money than | :04:48. | :04:50. | |
you have found already because particularly eastern Ukraine is | :04:51. | :04:54. | |
fairly impoverished and as we have seen a couple of people have been | :04:55. | :04:57. | |
killed in a place where there could be further unrest. I think the | :04:58. | :05:04. | |
larger picture here is about nonproliferation. If you go back to | :05:05. | :05:09. | |
1994 the US and Russia signed an agreement currently in territorial | :05:10. | :05:11. | |
integrity of Ukraine if Ukraine agreed to give up its nuclear | :05:12. | :05:18. | |
weapons arsenal. An important landmark in the post-Cold War Iraq. | :05:19. | :05:24. | |
If the US is seen to not be able to keep that agreement in force, it has | :05:25. | :05:26. | |
huge implications for nonproliferation Lord eastern | :05:27. | :05:33. | |
Europe. Iran, for instance, talks with Iran could be impacted. There | :05:34. | :05:38. | |
is a lot at stake for the credibility of the US. I think you | :05:39. | :05:41. | |
are singing a Guy Burgess between the way the US is react and in | :05:42. | :05:47. | |
Europe. Europe has more skin in the game, if you want to call it that, | :05:48. | :05:52. | |
far more economically dependent on Russia. Germany in particular, a | :05:53. | :05:56. | |
third of its oil and gas supplies come from Russia. So I'd wink that | :05:57. | :06:05. | |
the EU, to impose sanctions, Iran style sanctions on Russia could have | :06:06. | :06:10. | |
a huge impact on the economy if you are talking about an inability of | :06:11. | :06:16. | |
Russian companies to convert rubles into dollars it will have a huge | :06:17. | :06:19. | |
implications for the city of London, for the banking sector. The number | :06:20. | :06:26. | |
of German companies that are intertwined with Russian companies, | :06:27. | :06:34. | |
RW we and John have agreements with Gazprom. If you look at what Angela | :06:35. | :06:42. | |
Merkel said this week, it seemed to be a line of, OK, but if you go into | :06:43. | :06:48. | |
eastern Ukraine then we are going to slam you with punitive economic | :06:49. | :06:51. | |
sanctions and that is where we draw the line. You can understand the | :06:52. | :06:56. | |
politics of that but you can understand, if you see it from | :06:57. | :06:59. | |
Putin's point of view, if I push another little bit and another | :07:00. | :07:03. | |
little bit, these lines being drawn that mean anything, it is the red | :07:04. | :07:08. | |
lines over Syria all over again. I think Putin is being extremely | :07:09. | :07:16. | |
pragmatic and cynical about this. I will be pushing and pushing, because | :07:17. | :07:25. | |
he has not started using his cards, such as Syria and the North Korean | :07:26. | :07:31. | |
situation as well, all those things have not been mentioned before as | :07:32. | :07:34. | |
part of the wider solution, so I think the West will be potentially | :07:35. | :07:37. | |
working hard to find a situation which saves space for everyone. If | :07:38. | :07:44. | |
you look at what Kerry said after the meeting with Sergey Lavrov on | :07:45. | :07:47. | |
Friday, he seems to be leaving the door open for Putin to have a | :07:48. | :07:51. | |
graceful way out, saying, we will not hit you with sanctions if you'd | :07:52. | :07:56. | |
continue the diplomatic analogue and I am sure he is mindful that Putin | :07:57. | :08:03. | |
does not react well to threats. The West's reaction so far is limited. | :08:04. | :08:07. | |
They have not shown as anything serious or credible. The Kerry to | :08:08. | :08:15. | |
say there will be serious consequences, that is not strong | :08:16. | :08:23. | |
enough. Putin, I think, what he had in mind, he is building the image of | :08:24. | :08:27. | |
view to the great. He is everywhere, more or less. You mentioned Syria, | :08:28. | :08:33. | |
it is part of his global policy. Certainly Crimea now. Obviously Iran | :08:34. | :08:39. | |
as well, but Syria in particular. The man is doing whatever he likes | :08:40. | :08:43. | |
in Syria and nobody seems to be able to stop him. That entire region in | :08:44. | :08:51. | |
the Middle East is really under serious threat if the regime | :08:52. | :08:57. | |
continues to prosper. And it seems it will be. Because now even Kerry, | :08:58. | :09:06. | |
indirectly talking about that, it is ridiculous and very disappointing. | :09:07. | :09:12. | |
And it is seen that way across the Arab world? Absolutely. It is | :09:13. | :09:19. | |
interesting that we are talking about this in global terms but I am | :09:20. | :09:22. | |
also interested in the views of people within Ukraine and Crimea, it | :09:23. | :09:27. | |
is such a complicated place in terms of the ethnicities, the religions, | :09:28. | :09:31. | |
the way in which people perceive themselves to be either Europeans or | :09:32. | :09:35. | |
looking towards Russia will stop a lot of the interviews we see coming | :09:36. | :09:38. | |
out of there from people, the ordinary people who live there, too | :09:39. | :09:44. | |
as it may seem strange but they see themselves very much as allied to | :09:45. | :09:47. | |
Russia. They want that connection with Russia in a way that we perhaps | :09:48. | :09:56. | |
don't quite... I don't necessarily think they become anti-European, I | :09:57. | :10:01. | |
think that is an important point. They have various layers to them. | :10:02. | :10:06. | |
Chromium is, specifically, even if you take 60% of ethnic Russians in | :10:07. | :10:14. | |
Crimea, can we say that all of them really want to become a part of | :10:15. | :10:18. | |
Russia or do they still want to be part of Ukraine maybe with a more | :10:19. | :10:23. | |
stable government, less corrupt? What is the actual relationship | :10:24. | :10:25. | |
between Ukraine and the region in the far west of Ukraine as well? | :10:26. | :10:39. | |
Historically very different. The Tatars will play a very important | :10:40. | :10:43. | |
part in the next few months. That is why Tatars has been doing very, very | :10:44. | :10:52. | |
interesting in the international relationship, speaking to the | :10:53. | :10:58. | |
presidents of one of the powerful republics within Russia as well. | :10:59. | :11:07. | |
Just understand where they are, the global support for the whole thing. | :11:08. | :11:11. | |
The same goes to the eastern part of Ukraine. It is not as black and | :11:12. | :11:18. | |
white, and a lot of times if you live in Donetsk or somewhere else | :11:19. | :11:23. | |
not mean that you suddenly want to wake up in the Russian Federation | :11:24. | :11:27. | |
the next morning, if indeed eastern Ukraine will become the next step. | :11:28. | :11:33. | |
But the question to me is why did they move the referendum to this | :11:34. | :11:39. | |
weekend? It was supposed to be in May and then it suddenly cropped up | :11:40. | :11:43. | |
that they moved to head. I have a lot of people thought, yes, a | :11:44. | :11:52. | |
referendum, given sufficient time to prepare for it, to debated publicly, | :11:53. | :11:55. | |
would be the way to go. Why did he push it forward? Because he had the | :11:56. | :12:00. | |
momentum. If you remember the fateful weekend with several foreign | :12:01. | :12:07. | |
EU ministers and members of opposition and Russian human rights | :12:08. | :12:11. | |
organisations were signed, the situation were moving so quickly... | :12:12. | :12:17. | |
I think they don't want a stand-off between Ukrainian and Russian troops | :12:18. | :12:20. | |
for two months. Let's move on. Written's public | :12:21. | :12:26. | |
sector workers are to receive yet another below inflation pay | :12:27. | :12:34. | |
increase. It comes as George Osborne is to deliver his budget on | :12:35. | :12:37. | |
Wednesday. If the good news keeps coming, as the Prime Minister was | :12:38. | :12:41. | |
said, should public sector workers get a bigger piece of the pie? How | :12:42. | :12:46. | |
do you see this? It is difficult for any government to deal with public | :12:47. | :12:51. | |
sector workers, including the biggest employer, the National | :12:52. | :12:54. | |
Health Service? When George Osborne came in in 2010, he had a huge | :12:55. | :12:58. | |
emphasis on public sector wage restraint in line with the austerity | :12:59. | :13:03. | |
measures that he put in place and you can understand there was the | :13:04. | :13:10. | |
deficit, a stagnating economy, inflation above the Bank of | :13:11. | :13:14. | |
England's target of 2%. Now the situation has changed, the Bank of | :13:15. | :13:18. | |
England thinks we will have 3.4% growth this year, the highest since | :13:19. | :13:23. | |
2007. Inflation has fallen below the 2% target of the Bank of England, so | :13:24. | :13:27. | |
he does have room to manoeuvre a little bit now, which is why it is | :13:28. | :13:31. | |
so surprising that he has been so hard on the NHS, that he has gone | :13:32. | :13:37. | |
ahead with this proposal to not even allow half of the NHS to get the | :13:38. | :13:42. | |
1%, the measly 1% raise, that he promised them. And I think it looks | :13:43. | :13:49. | |
like his endgame is, the budget we will get next week will be more | :13:50. | :13:53. | |
austerity, more pain to come, but I think what he is banking on is, by | :13:54. | :13:58. | |
November or maybe next March, right before the next general election, | :13:59. | :14:00. | |
things will be looking much better, the deficit will be smaller, public | :14:01. | :14:04. | |
borrowing will be local, and he will be able to then give away something | :14:05. | :14:11. | |
that will boost election prospects. Is the presumption that people 's | :14:12. | :14:15. | |
memories are short? If you have a giveaway budget in March 2015 and an | :14:16. | :14:20. | |
election in May 2015, that is good news, so now is not a good time to | :14:21. | :14:26. | |
give away everything? I think so, but as well they have staked their | :14:27. | :14:30. | |
reputation on austerity. If they are seen to be backtracking they leave | :14:31. | :14:33. | |
themselves open to attack. Also part of it is the unions say it is partly | :14:34. | :14:41. | |
about progression and pay, if you are a nurse, year-on-year, you get | :14:42. | :14:47. | |
an increment anyway, never mind 1%, and it is clear the government will | :14:48. | :14:52. | |
want to end that hand that will be part of the negotiations will stop | :14:53. | :14:58. | |
weekend to think, when we say public sector workers, nurses, clerical | :14:59. | :15:04. | |
workers in the towel, whatever. But of course public sector workers | :15:05. | :15:07. | |
include people who are very highly paid as well, and I would have | :15:08. | :15:13. | |
thought that what they need to do is look at the low paid individuals and | :15:14. | :15:20. | |
do something for them. After all, we are giving these people more money | :15:21. | :15:25. | |
than it really looks because a lot of people who are low paid within | :15:26. | :15:29. | |
the public sector will get pop-ups through tax credits, for example, so | :15:30. | :15:33. | |
it really would just be shifting money from one public pop to another | :15:34. | :15:38. | |
if they increased their pay so they were not getting so many benefits. I | :15:39. | :15:45. | |
think they might come to this point later on because he still has two | :15:46. | :15:52. | |
budgets to come before election, so he may address this point later on. | :15:53. | :15:59. | |
But it comes in the week of this budget and also at a time when the | :16:00. | :16:03. | |
Education Secretary has said quite famously there is a ridiculous | :16:04. | :16:08. | |
number of old Etonian advisers around the Prime Minister, which | :16:09. | :16:10. | |
plays into, it is interesting that he said that, it plays into the | :16:11. | :16:14. | |
story that Labour wanted Talbot is that they are out of touch, they say | :16:15. | :16:18. | |
we are in this together but we are not really. I think this is a part | :16:19. | :16:26. | |
of the eternal fight of the leadership of the party, who is | :16:27. | :16:33. | |
going to take over from Cameron? One of the main contenders is Boris | :16:34. | :16:42. | |
Johnson, and old Italian? -- and old utopian. You think he is saying we | :16:43. | :16:51. | |
do not want any more old Etonian at Number Ten, how about me, I would be | :16:52. | :16:59. | |
a better candidate? It is not just people who are badly off who have | :17:00. | :17:02. | |
issues, as we know from the comments that the Dean dobbies made in the | :17:03. | :17:11. | |
past about posh boys... Saying that Cameron and Osborne are out of touch | :17:12. | :17:15. | |
and don't know the price of milk? She spotted that people who have | :17:16. | :17:19. | |
problems with all Pitodrie ins and posh boys are not just people who | :17:20. | :17:23. | |
are badly off, it is the infamous squeezed middle, the role we would | :17:24. | :17:29. | |
would have thought of as being prosperous but who have really felt | :17:30. | :17:33. | |
the squeeze and have a real problem with people at the top being out of | :17:34. | :17:39. | |
touch with them, let alone... And those are the people the | :17:40. | :17:41. | |
Conservatives attracted wholeheartedly in the Thatcher | :17:42. | :17:44. | |
years, Fatah had a direct line to the way they were thinking in a way | :17:45. | :17:49. | |
which the current administration doesn't? I think Michael Gove is | :17:50. | :17:54. | |
being rather canny. I think he might be spotting there is a group of | :17:55. | :17:58. | |
people he can appeal to. He has just sent his daughter to a very good | :17:59. | :18:02. | |
state school. He is allied himself with people of that kind, with the | :18:03. | :18:06. | |
Conservative party need as their voters. It does there are a lot of | :18:07. | :18:17. | |
them? I think it is exactly that. You have this polarisation of | :18:18. | :18:23. | |
people. Another important point is that irrespective of who leads the | :18:24. | :18:32. | |
Conservatives, the books will be balanced by 2019, so it is another | :18:33. | :18:41. | |
parliament. You just take one pot of money from another. It is obvious | :18:42. | :18:49. | |
from listening to the Shadow Chancellor that if Labour were in | :18:50. | :18:54. | |
power, the thought of it is quite daunting. It is not as we are being | :18:55. | :18:59. | |
offered at the next election a choice of gene someone who's going | :19:00. | :19:03. | |
to give away a lot of money and somebody who is not going to give | :19:04. | :19:09. | |
away a lot of money. Yes, a lot of the cuts that George Osborne has | :19:10. | :19:14. | |
announced are going to hit after the next election. Ed Balls has outlined | :19:15. | :19:21. | |
a series of tax rises, taxes on bankers' bonuses. Hitting pension | :19:22. | :19:29. | |
contributions for anyone in the higher tax bracket. It is becoming | :19:30. | :19:36. | |
pretty clear what your choices I. Labour will have to cut, there is no | :19:37. | :19:41. | |
way they can close the gap to tax rises alone. | :19:42. | :19:48. | |
Let's move on. A year ago a new Pope from the New World promised a new | :19:49. | :19:51. | |
beginning for the Catholic Church. Pope Francis has been received very | :19:52. | :19:54. | |
warmly, - but beyond a change in mood - are there really fundamental | :19:55. | :19:57. | |
ways in which the church has changed, the bureaucracy improved | :19:58. | :20:00. | |
and the scandals overcome? He has been a breath of fresh air and seems | :20:01. | :20:03. | |
to be liked within the church and outside the church, but either any | :20:04. | :20:08. | |
significant changes you can put your finger on? I think you have to | :20:09. | :20:14. | |
remember that Pope Francis remains a catholic Pope. Some people talk as | :20:15. | :20:22. | |
if a Reformation is underway. Nevertheless, we do have to | :20:23. | :20:30. | |
recognise how important it is today that you have DVD charismatic | :20:31. | :20:35. | |
leader. Leadership comes in many ways now and from charisma as much | :20:36. | :20:43. | |
as authority. He has that and he has changed the way the Catholic Church | :20:44. | :20:49. | |
is perceived, particularly by people outside the Catholic Church. There | :20:50. | :20:53. | |
have been some major changes within it. He has made significant changes | :20:54. | :21:02. | |
to personnel within the Vatican. He is bringing in people who are | :21:03. | :21:06. | |
advising him, who were not part of that Vatican set, they are from | :21:07. | :21:14. | |
around the world. He has brought in a new group of people who are going | :21:15. | :21:17. | |
to look after the money in the Vatican. There has been a lot of | :21:18. | :21:22. | |
concern about corruption within the Vatican bank. So there are changes, | :21:23. | :21:27. | |
but in terms of doctrine, things are not changing. The Catholic Church | :21:28. | :21:33. | |
does not make U-turns like a political party. It has doctrine and | :21:34. | :21:38. | |
it develops it. If it is going to make changes in that sense, it is | :21:39. | :21:42. | |
going to be very slow, very developmental. On that point, do you | :21:43. | :21:49. | |
see an appetite for change within the catholic family? Many friends | :21:50. | :21:57. | |
who are American Catholics want to change on contraception and other | :21:58. | :22:06. | |
things. Do you see that as being intolerant response, that in the | :22:07. | :22:11. | |
real world you do not be all the teachings of the church, because the | :22:12. | :22:17. | |
Woody can do that, or do you see reform on these issues? There is | :22:18. | :22:24. | |
definite talk of it. There is a very important thing coming up in | :22:25. | :22:29. | |
October. Pope Francis wants to consult people, there was a westerly | :22:30. | :22:38. | |
sent out to Catholics the world. The response has been pretty unanimous | :22:39. | :22:42. | |
in saying that Catholics are really ignoring church teaching on | :22:43. | :22:48. | |
contraception. The other one, with this seems to be the greatest | :22:49. | :22:53. | |
request for change, is that people are very concerned about the | :22:54. | :22:57. | |
position of divorced and remarried Catholics and the extent to which | :22:58. | :23:02. | |
they feel outside the fold. Bishops from around the world seemed to be | :23:03. | :23:06. | |
saying similar things, that they feel there needs to be movement. But | :23:07. | :23:11. | |
as you mentioned, this is a universal Church. Catholics are not | :23:12. | :23:16. | |
just Americans or Europeans, they are Africans and South Americans. | :23:17. | :23:21. | |
The Catholic Church is growing in the South. We know that Benedict for | :23:22. | :23:31. | |
many people in the Muslim world was not flavour of the month. You are | :23:32. | :23:38. | |
right about that. He made a couple of remarks that really ended a lot | :23:39. | :23:47. | |
of people. But you are right that Pope Francis is totally different, | :23:48. | :23:55. | |
he is a breath of fresh air, because I think the Vatican and the Pope has | :23:56. | :24:04. | |
a universal rule. There are more Catholics outside Europe than there | :24:05. | :24:14. | |
are inside Europe. With this fresh air and with his background, coming | :24:15. | :24:18. | |
from a third World country, it is extremely important. This has not | :24:19. | :24:24. | |
happened before. And also being in touch with the have nots as much as | :24:25. | :24:34. | |
the haves. Exactly. And hopefully he will do something. There are | :24:35. | :24:40. | |
doubts, because of the structure, the existing culture in the church. | :24:41. | :24:47. | |
It takes much longer to change the culture, but what is important is | :24:48. | :24:54. | |
that people actually can relate to Pope Francis in a much, much deeper | :24:55. | :25:00. | |
way in terms of his personality. He comes across as being very friendly | :25:01. | :25:06. | |
and very open. In Russia, as soon as he does something that makes him | :25:07. | :25:09. | |
stand out from the long queue of people who are meant to behave in | :25:10. | :25:18. | |
that very restricted manner, people say, when was the last time you saw | :25:19. | :25:24. | |
someone in the Russian Orthodox Church doing something like that? | :25:25. | :25:30. | |
Having been raised as a strict Roman Catholic myself, I was very excited | :25:31. | :25:34. | |
to see Pope Francis talk about a more inclusive, open church. He has | :25:35. | :25:40. | |
even inspired Republicans in America to talk about equality in a way that | :25:41. | :25:45. | |
is quite remarkable. He has done a lot to start the reform process of | :25:46. | :25:50. | |
the Vatican bureaucracy. I am somewhat disappointed he has not | :25:51. | :25:55. | |
taken on the sex abuse scandals in a more open way. He has not talked | :25:56. | :25:58. | |
about that much. While he has condemned it, he has not approached | :25:59. | :26:04. | |
it with the amount of transparency a lot of people were hoping for. | :26:05. | :26:07. | |
We'll leave it there. That's it for Dateline London for this week. We're | :26:08. | :26:11. | |
back next week at the same time. You can comment on the programme on | :26:12. | :26:13. | |
Twitter @gavinesler hashtag BBC Dateline. Goodbye. | :26:14. | :26:43. | |
If you have out your plans through the rest of the weekend, things are | :26:44. | :26:44. |