15/03/2014 Dateline London


15/03/2014

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Welcome to dateline London. Crimea's campaign to leave Russia

:00:34.:01:00.

and join the league training is neither legal nor wanted. Is

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Vladimir Putin determined to carve up Ukraine? Isn't anything which

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might make him think again? I suspect the answer is I yes, he is

:01:13.:01:21.

determined. Yes, he is determined. He decided several weeks ago, and we

:01:22.:01:27.

were discussing it, whether they would be in military intervention.

:01:28.:01:35.

What will happen now, I think, is the referendum will go ahead, and

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Vladimir Putin was take a step back and see what is going on. Foreign

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powers will be see it is illegitimate and they don't

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recognise it, but the practical things will come later. What will

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happen later, all the supply routes go through Ukraine, still Russia

:02:08.:02:13.

will eventually have to fund Crimea. It will become yet another region

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that the Kremlin will have to delete a lot of money to. Another option

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would be to freeze the situation like with other Soviet territories.

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What is the great game yet? We have discussed endlessly about Putin

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wanting his empire back, the soviet union empire collapsing was a

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disaster, but is he an incremental list, or is he somebody who, the

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more he eats, the hungrier he gets? Two important points. The first is

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to do with internal situations in Russia. I think Putin specifically

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sees everything which has been happening in Ukraine over the last

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ten or so years as eight direct potential threat to the power in

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Russia. If subsequently we can see that they can install another

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government that foreign powers will recognise, if people in Russia start

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thinking that protest, ten years of protest, can suddenly leapt to

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change power, that is something the Kremlin should be extremely nervous.

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Secondly is the international angle that internationally Russia always

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maintained there needs to be some kind of of the zone between NATO,

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which is still, there have been dozens of agreements between the

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Russian military and NATO, it is still being seen widely as a

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threat. Russia always wanted to have a buffer state, even the former

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Eastern Bloc countries have become members. Russia Ukraine and Moldova

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or almost like the last bastions of that. If suddenly Ukraine becomes a

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part of it it is unacceptable... Part of NATO? It is completely

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unacceptable. A lot of people were saying about Gorbachev that one

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thing that he got completely wrong is that you never go to the Western

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powers to say that nature does not expand at all. A dilemma for the

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West is, broadly, what can you do, and, if you want Ukraine to survive

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as an independent state, you may have to find a lot more money than

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you have found already because particularly eastern Ukraine is

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fairly impoverished and as we have seen a couple of people have been

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killed in a place where there could be further unrest. I think the

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larger picture here is about nonproliferation. If you go back to

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1994 the US and Russia signed an agreement currently in territorial

:05:10.:05:11.

integrity of Ukraine if Ukraine agreed to give up its nuclear

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weapons arsenal. An important landmark in the post-Cold War Iraq.

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If the US is seen to not be able to keep that agreement in force, it has

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huge implications for nonproliferation Lord eastern

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Europe. Iran, for instance, talks with Iran could be impacted. There

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is a lot at stake for the credibility of the US. I think you

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are singing a Guy Burgess between the way the US is react and in

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Europe. Europe has more skin in the game, if you want to call it that,

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far more economically dependent on Russia. Germany in particular, a

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third of its oil and gas supplies come from Russia. So I'd wink that

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the EU, to impose sanctions, Iran style sanctions on Russia could have

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a huge impact on the economy if you are talking about an inability of

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Russian companies to convert rubles into dollars it will have a huge

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implications for the city of London, for the banking sector. The number

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of German companies that are intertwined with Russian companies,

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RW we and John have agreements with Gazprom. If you look at what Angela

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Merkel said this week, it seemed to be a line of, OK, but if you go into

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eastern Ukraine then we are going to slam you with punitive economic

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sanctions and that is where we draw the line. You can understand the

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politics of that but you can understand, if you see it from

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Putin's point of view, if I push another little bit and another

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little bit, these lines being drawn that mean anything, it is the red

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lines over Syria all over again. I think Putin is being extremely

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pragmatic and cynical about this. I will be pushing and pushing, because

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he has not started using his cards, such as Syria and the North Korean

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situation as well, all those things have not been mentioned before as

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part of the wider solution, so I think the West will be potentially

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working hard to find a situation which saves space for everyone. If

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you look at what Kerry said after the meeting with Sergey Lavrov on

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Friday, he seems to be leaving the door open for Putin to have a

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graceful way out, saying, we will not hit you with sanctions if you'd

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continue the diplomatic analogue and I am sure he is mindful that Putin

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does not react well to threats. The West's reaction so far is limited.

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They have not shown as anything serious or credible. The Kerry to

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say there will be serious consequences, that is not strong

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enough. Putin, I think, what he had in mind, he is building the image of

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view to the great. He is everywhere, more or less. You mentioned Syria,

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it is part of his global policy. Certainly Crimea now. Obviously Iran

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as well, but Syria in particular. The man is doing whatever he likes

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in Syria and nobody seems to be able to stop him. That entire region in

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the Middle East is really under serious threat if the regime

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continues to prosper. And it seems it will be. Because now even Kerry,

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indirectly talking about that, it is ridiculous and very disappointing.

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And it is seen that way across the Arab world? Absolutely. It is

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interesting that we are talking about this in global terms but I am

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also interested in the views of people within Ukraine and Crimea, it

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is such a complicated place in terms of the ethnicities, the religions,

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the way in which people perceive themselves to be either Europeans or

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looking towards Russia will stop a lot of the interviews we see coming

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out of there from people, the ordinary people who live there, too

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as it may seem strange but they see themselves very much as allied to

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Russia. They want that connection with Russia in a way that we perhaps

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don't quite... I don't necessarily think they become anti-European, I

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think that is an important point. They have various layers to them.

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Chromium is, specifically, even if you take 60% of ethnic Russians in

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Crimea, can we say that all of them really want to become a part of

:10:15.:10:18.

Russia or do they still want to be part of Ukraine maybe with a more

:10:19.:10:23.

stable government, less corrupt? What is the actual relationship

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between Ukraine and the region in the far west of Ukraine as well?

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Historically very different. The Tatars will play a very important

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part in the next few months. That is why Tatars has been doing very, very

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interesting in the international relationship, speaking to the

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presidents of one of the powerful republics within Russia as well.

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Just understand where they are, the global support for the whole thing.

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The same goes to the eastern part of Ukraine. It is not as black and

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white, and a lot of times if you live in Donetsk or somewhere else

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not mean that you suddenly want to wake up in the Russian Federation

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the next morning, if indeed eastern Ukraine will become the next step.

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But the question to me is why did they move the referendum to this

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weekend? It was supposed to be in May and then it suddenly cropped up

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that they moved to head. I have a lot of people thought, yes, a

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referendum, given sufficient time to prepare for it, to debated publicly,

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would be the way to go. Why did he push it forward? Because he had the

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momentum. If you remember the fateful weekend with several foreign

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EU ministers and members of opposition and Russian human rights

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organisations were signed, the situation were moving so quickly...

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I think they don't want a stand-off between Ukrainian and Russian troops

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for two months. Let's move on. Written's public

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sector workers are to receive yet another below inflation pay

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increase. It comes as George Osborne is to deliver his budget on

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Wednesday. If the good news keeps coming, as the Prime Minister was

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said, should public sector workers get a bigger piece of the pie? How

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do you see this? It is difficult for any government to deal with public

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sector workers, including the biggest employer, the National

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Health Service? When George Osborne came in in 2010, he had a huge

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emphasis on public sector wage restraint in line with the austerity

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measures that he put in place and you can understand there was the

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deficit, a stagnating economy, inflation above the Bank of

:13:11.:13:14.

England's target of 2%. Now the situation has changed, the Bank of

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England thinks we will have 3.4% growth this year, the highest since

:13:19.:13:23.

2007. Inflation has fallen below the 2% target of the Bank of England, so

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he does have room to manoeuvre a little bit now, which is why it is

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so surprising that he has been so hard on the NHS, that he has gone

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ahead with this proposal to not even allow half of the NHS to get the

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1%, the measly 1% raise, that he promised them. And I think it looks

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like his endgame is, the budget we will get next week will be more

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austerity, more pain to come, but I think what he is banking on is, by

:13:54.:13:58.

November or maybe next March, right before the next general election,

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things will be looking much better, the deficit will be smaller, public

:14:01.:14:04.

borrowing will be local, and he will be able to then give away something

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that will boost election prospects. Is the presumption that people 's

:14:12.:14:15.

memories are short? If you have a giveaway budget in March 2015 and an

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election in May 2015, that is good news, so now is not a good time to

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give away everything? I think so, but as well they have staked their

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reputation on austerity. If they are seen to be backtracking they leave

:14:31.:14:33.

themselves open to attack. Also part of it is the unions say it is partly

:14:34.:14:41.

about progression and pay, if you are a nurse, year-on-year, you get

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an increment anyway, never mind 1%, and it is clear the government will

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want to end that hand that will be part of the negotiations will stop

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weekend to think, when we say public sector workers, nurses, clerical

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workers in the towel, whatever. But of course public sector workers

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include people who are very highly paid as well, and I would have

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thought that what they need to do is look at the low paid individuals and

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do something for them. After all, we are giving these people more money

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than it really looks because a lot of people who are low paid within

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the public sector will get pop-ups through tax credits, for example, so

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it really would just be shifting money from one public pop to another

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if they increased their pay so they were not getting so many benefits. I

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think they might come to this point later on because he still has two

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budgets to come before election, so he may address this point later on.

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But it comes in the week of this budget and also at a time when the

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Education Secretary has said quite famously there is a ridiculous

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number of old Etonian advisers around the Prime Minister, which

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plays into, it is interesting that he said that, it plays into the

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story that Labour wanted Talbot is that they are out of touch, they say

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we are in this together but we are not really. I think this is a part

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of the eternal fight of the leadership of the party, who is

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going to take over from Cameron? One of the main contenders is Boris

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Johnson, and old Italian? -- and old utopian. You think he is saying we

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do not want any more old Etonian at Number Ten, how about me, I would be

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a better candidate? It is not just people who are badly off who have

:17:00.:17:02.

issues, as we know from the comments that the Dean dobbies made in the

:17:03.:17:11.

past about posh boys... Saying that Cameron and Osborne are out of touch

:17:12.:17:15.

and don't know the price of milk? She spotted that people who have

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problems with all Pitodrie ins and posh boys are not just people who

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are badly off, it is the infamous squeezed middle, the role we would

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would have thought of as being prosperous but who have really felt

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the squeeze and have a real problem with people at the top being out of

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touch with them, let alone... And those are the people the

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Conservatives attracted wholeheartedly in the Thatcher

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years, Fatah had a direct line to the way they were thinking in a way

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which the current administration doesn't? I think Michael Gove is

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being rather canny. I think he might be spotting there is a group of

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people he can appeal to. He has just sent his daughter to a very good

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state school. He is allied himself with people of that kind, with the

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Conservative party need as their voters. It does there are a lot of

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them? I think it is exactly that. You have this polarisation of

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people. Another important point is that irrespective of who leads the

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Conservatives, the books will be balanced by 2019, so it is another

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parliament. You just take one pot of money from another. It is obvious

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from listening to the Shadow Chancellor that if Labour were in

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power, the thought of it is quite daunting. It is not as we are being

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offered at the next election a choice of gene someone who's going

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to give away a lot of money and somebody who is not going to give

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away a lot of money. Yes, a lot of the cuts that George Osborne has

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announced are going to hit after the next election. Ed Balls has outlined

:19:15.:19:21.

a series of tax rises, taxes on bankers' bonuses. Hitting pension

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contributions for anyone in the higher tax bracket. It is becoming

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pretty clear what your choices I. Labour will have to cut, there is no

:19:37.:19:41.

way they can close the gap to tax rises alone.

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Let's move on. A year ago a new Pope from the New World promised a new

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beginning for the Catholic Church. Pope Francis has been received very

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warmly, - but beyond a change in mood - are there really fundamental

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ways in which the church has changed, the bureaucracy improved

:19:58.:20:00.

and the scandals overcome? He has been a breath of fresh air and seems

:20:01.:20:03.

to be liked within the church and outside the church, but either any

:20:04.:20:08.

significant changes you can put your finger on? I think you have to

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remember that Pope Francis remains a catholic Pope. Some people talk as

:20:15.:20:22.

if a Reformation is underway. Nevertheless, we do have to

:20:23.:20:30.

recognise how important it is today that you have DVD charismatic

:20:31.:20:35.

leader. Leadership comes in many ways now and from charisma as much

:20:36.:20:43.

as authority. He has that and he has changed the way the Catholic Church

:20:44.:20:49.

is perceived, particularly by people outside the Catholic Church. There

:20:50.:20:53.

have been some major changes within it. He has made significant changes

:20:54.:21:02.

to personnel within the Vatican. He is bringing in people who are

:21:03.:21:06.

advising him, who were not part of that Vatican set, they are from

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around the world. He has brought in a new group of people who are going

:21:15.:21:17.

to look after the money in the Vatican. There has been a lot of

:21:18.:21:22.

concern about corruption within the Vatican bank. So there are changes,

:21:23.:21:27.

but in terms of doctrine, things are not changing. The Catholic Church

:21:28.:21:33.

does not make U-turns like a political party. It has doctrine and

:21:34.:21:38.

it develops it. If it is going to make changes in that sense, it is

:21:39.:21:42.

going to be very slow, very developmental. On that point, do you

:21:43.:21:49.

see an appetite for change within the catholic family? Many friends

:21:50.:21:57.

who are American Catholics want to change on contraception and other

:21:58.:22:06.

things. Do you see that as being intolerant response, that in the

:22:07.:22:11.

real world you do not be all the teachings of the church, because the

:22:12.:22:17.

Woody can do that, or do you see reform on these issues? There is

:22:18.:22:24.

definite talk of it. There is a very important thing coming up in

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October. Pope Francis wants to consult people, there was a westerly

:22:30.:22:38.

sent out to Catholics the world. The response has been pretty unanimous

:22:39.:22:42.

in saying that Catholics are really ignoring church teaching on

:22:43.:22:48.

contraception. The other one, with this seems to be the greatest

:22:49.:22:53.

request for change, is that people are very concerned about the

:22:54.:22:57.

position of divorced and remarried Catholics and the extent to which

:22:58.:23:02.

they feel outside the fold. Bishops from around the world seemed to be

:23:03.:23:06.

saying similar things, that they feel there needs to be movement. But

:23:07.:23:11.

as you mentioned, this is a universal Church. Catholics are not

:23:12.:23:16.

just Americans or Europeans, they are Africans and South Americans.

:23:17.:23:21.

The Catholic Church is growing in the South. We know that Benedict for

:23:22.:23:31.

many people in the Muslim world was not flavour of the month. You are

:23:32.:23:38.

right about that. He made a couple of remarks that really ended a lot

:23:39.:23:47.

of people. But you are right that Pope Francis is totally different,

:23:48.:23:55.

he is a breath of fresh air, because I think the Vatican and the Pope has

:23:56.:24:04.

a universal rule. There are more Catholics outside Europe than there

:24:05.:24:14.

are inside Europe. With this fresh air and with his background, coming

:24:15.:24:18.

from a third World country, it is extremely important. This has not

:24:19.:24:24.

happened before. And also being in touch with the have nots as much as

:24:25.:24:34.

the haves. Exactly. And hopefully he will do something. There are

:24:35.:24:40.

doubts, because of the structure, the existing culture in the church.

:24:41.:24:47.

It takes much longer to change the culture, but what is important is

:24:48.:24:54.

that people actually can relate to Pope Francis in a much, much deeper

:24:55.:25:00.

way in terms of his personality. He comes across as being very friendly

:25:01.:25:06.

and very open. In Russia, as soon as he does something that makes him

:25:07.:25:09.

stand out from the long queue of people who are meant to behave in

:25:10.:25:18.

that very restricted manner, people say, when was the last time you saw

:25:19.:25:24.

someone in the Russian Orthodox Church doing something like that?

:25:25.:25:30.

Having been raised as a strict Roman Catholic myself, I was very excited

:25:31.:25:34.

to see Pope Francis talk about a more inclusive, open church. He has

:25:35.:25:40.

even inspired Republicans in America to talk about equality in a way that

:25:41.:25:45.

is quite remarkable. He has done a lot to start the reform process of

:25:46.:25:50.

the Vatican bureaucracy. I am somewhat disappointed he has not

:25:51.:25:55.

taken on the sex abuse scandals in a more open way. He has not talked

:25:56.:25:58.

about that much. While he has condemned it, he has not approached

:25:59.:26:04.

it with the amount of transparency a lot of people were hoping for.

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We'll leave it there. That's it for Dateline London for this week. We're

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back next week at the same time. You can comment on the programme on

:26:12.:26:13.

Twitter @gavinesler hashtag BBC Dateline. Goodbye.

:26:14.:26:43.

If you have out your plans through the rest of the weekend, things are

:26:44.:26:44.

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