22/03/2014 Dateline London

mother in 1972. A full bulletin at the top of the

hour, but now, Dateline London live with Gavin Esler.

Welcome to Dateline London. Has Vladimir Putin create add new world

disorder? The hunt for the Malaysian missing airliner and Britain's beer

and bingo budget. Mark Rush, Jan Daley, Mrs Tanyuck and Ged

McAllister, an broadcaster, they all join me. Crimea's always been part

of Russia. Putin dresses up his actions and

however popular they may be in Russia, has he created a dangerous

new precedent for solving territorial disputes by force and,

give than he holds some strong cards, is there anything the rest of

the world can do to make him think again? I'm conscious of the fact

that the idea of solving a dispute is not what's happened, this dispute

has not been solved and it's still running. How does it seem in Ukraine

now do you think? In Ukraine, it's seen as an occupation of Ukrainian

territory, illegal occupation. Ukraine invoked all agreements,

including the security guarantees given to it by the United States

Government. Ukraine in exchange for a third largest world nuclear

arsenal was the integrity by the British and the Russian. Those

assurances are now forgotten, not worth the paper they were written

on. There is the position of two signatures in different places

showed that Ukraine might have lost Crimea, albeit temporarily as Kiev

hopes, but it's gained legitimacy and national legitimacy and support

of the West. The West itself got rid of the illusions that Russia,

Putin's Russia is the country in its own model, you know. You can do

business? A normal way? Yes. A normal European country. This could

be seen as a terrible precedent, couldn't it? Of course. This

international agreement, which the Brits and the US signed um to, torn

up, including the Russians? A Pandora's Box has been opened

because where do you stop? Russian compatriots, as he calls them, could

have their rights violated in Ukraine. These countries have been

reassured by Joe Biden, last week, that NATO stands with them. But...

For what that's worth. Germany might remember what was happening there

and Poland would remember that three names from one city from Poland. Is

that what you see it? Of course. We seem to remember the Second World

War began when the ethnic Germans had to be reclaimed for Germany. He

went on into Poland supposingly defending the Germans there too.

This is just an outrageous and shameful incident from the point of

view of the West. The West, Ukraine traded its nuclear arsenal on the

understanding it would have the protection of the West. I'm afraid

that people may be giving credit to America at the moment for being a

bit tougher than the EU which isn't saying very much, but it was the

signal that was sent by the Obama administration over Syria, for

example. America is out of this game, we are not the world's

policeman any more, go for it. That left a vacancy, a vacuum that Putin

quite happily marched into. Let me put the Putin point of view as far

as I can understand it which is Crimea's always traditionally been

part of Russia, it's strategecally vital to them because of the Black

Sea and the revolution or the changes in political Power in Kiev

don't suit the Russians? Look, certainly don't suit them but the

point is there was no threat. That was entirely a lie. There was no

threat to the Black Sea fleet, there was no threat, correct me if I'm

wrong, to the Russian military installations, they were there with

the consent of the Ukrainian government. What he didn't like was

that the old Russian imperial sphere of influence was being damaged by

Ukraine's flirtation with the Europe. We'll come to the US in a

moment. But you see Europe and the European Union signing this

agreement because once this agreement is signed, Ukraine is

partner of the Europe ideal and could aFloyd the European Union. The

situation for the Europe is very difficult, we are divided. The

British don't want sanctions because it's fantial. Germany doesn't want

it because of energy, Germany and France doesn't because of industry

export and the economy is not doing well and some kind knave ya doesn't

want it for political reasons. I think on the whole, the Europe has

been very courageous, sorry to say. I don't think Sarah is the reason

Putin decided to move. He got upset his client, government, not quite

client but friendly Government was getting washed away he has a sponge

Sircy mind set. It's a funny combination of Hitler, Milosevic ``

conspiracy mind set. You can't blame Obama for this. Look at everybody

trying to figure out what to do about it. It's very difficult. He

has a brilliant surgical strike. The question is, of course, what's next?

Is this a precursor to more moving into Ukraine or, I don't think other

places, Poland and Germany are going to do anything. It's Putin who is

the problem. He's usually a cagey operator. He may have gotten enough

domestic political balance and enough of a sense of

self`satisfaction from it that he doesn't need to threaten the Russian

economy which does have tied to the West. His hench men do have ties.

Exactly. He needs to sell his gas and oil. The Germans and the other

Eastern Europeans need to buy it. It gets colder, he could have his bank

account depleted more quickly than they can stand being cold. But

still, this is a long... We have seen yesterday the Russian oligarch

which was targeted by Obama, not Europe, I agree with that one, had

to sell his part for the trading of oil, trading a third of the oil of

Russia because the banks didn't want to give collateral. That will happen

more and more. All right. The Russian economy is...

Nothing but the export of gas and oil. They are very vulnerable.

Probably his adventurerses will stop, but the point is, this is

abouty owe politics and the fact that America was the last remaining

super Power `` about geopolitics. Putin said the collapse of the

Soviet Union was a tragedy, he wants to see the old imperial Russia

reestablishingth established on par with America as a super Power. His

speech on Tuesday should be a wake`up call for the West because he

not only harbours the revisionistic ideas about Russia's sphere of

influence, not only sent should haves down the Ukrainian spine

because he said, oh, Kiev is the mother of Russian cities, we all

know Russian civilisation started with Kiev and Crimea was Russian

only from the end of the 18th century when it was conquered by

Katherine. Before that, it was controlled by the other people. The

Tatas are worried about their future. So does he imply that his

actual target for expansion of Russian Orthodox world is Kiev? Half

of Ukraine? So the danger is, as I see it now, the West will accept

annexation of Crimea as a fait accompli and try to stop him from

expanding his military control or economic control from eastern and

southern Ukraine. Rather than try to roll back? Yes. The only choice

would be war. But he's eprepared to go to war. Nobody wanted to go to

war over Sudan either. There was a ludicrous war and this one seems

more ludicrous. He wants to be seen as Head of Super Power, he wants

Somme of parity with America. We have a super Power. There's not only

one super Power, there's also the European Union, not militarily, but

economically. ALL SPEAK AT ONCE

The element in this that we have to take into account is the shale oil

revolution and the fact there's going to be a glut of cheap oil and

gas which could put the Russian economy out of business in a big

way. A final word on this I would like to remind people that without

Ukraine, Russia will not be an empire. That is what Putin is afraid

of, losing you crane to the European Union. New red line, never will

Russia agree to NATO. `` Ukraine. Russia doesn't want to lose Ukraine

because it still wants to `` still wants to be an empire. The Malaysian

airliner en route to Beijing. The story's proved so compelling. Do we

believe we'll ever find out what's happened? It's a classic appalling

mystery isn't it? Frankly, nobody has a clue, despite the acres of

coverage that you see on News Channels and the newspapers,

nobody's got a clue what happened? That's one of the reasons why it's a

compelling story. It's a mystery and everybody who's ever ridden in an

aeroplane can identify. You your fave and safety in the hands of the

big systems `` you put your faith and safety in the hands of the big

systems and nothing happens much. When it goes so strangely wrong, as

in this story, it's mesmerizing. Also, every FedEx package is tracked

and you lose your iPhone, you can find it some place. Here is this $60

million aeroplane with people on it and who knows where it is? It could

be pilot suicide, terrorism or some strange combination of these things,

malfunction in some order and we probably may not know the answer. I

did some research about this. The World Health Organisation says 1.2

million people are killed in car accidents in the world every year.

That means 50,000 have been killed in car accidents in the time that

these 300 people have been lost. I mean, it's a different kind of

tragedy when it's distributed, but we are fixated in a way because we

can identify and feel for them I think.

But also, one of the things that's been really striking, is you have

the east and west forced to open up considerably, perhaps not doing a

great job of it in the difficult circumstances, and that is

interesting too. Yes. There's a new world information order and people

have to try to be more open? Especial shrill when dealing with

international transport. Most of the passengers were Chinese, not

Malaysian `` especially. They were people of various nationalities, so

there is a global responsibility to be open about information. What's

astonishing about this is the fact that because there are so few hard

fact, it opens this kind of box of incredible conjecture, some of it

absolutely wild and fantastical. People talking about alien

invasions, you know, there's almost no limit to the speculation because

we know so little. It does seem bizarre in the knowledge economy as

we call it, in the society where everything is transparent, we can

get the information about anything in a matter of seconds, suddenly

this airliner, the height of a six storey building Kevanish from the

face of the earth. It's absolutely bizarre. French viewers and

newspaper readers are just as fixated? Absolutely. What I find

interesting is how completely there is a new dimension in security

because the passengers were in danger and always when I'm going to

the airport, I find when there's the line where the crews go, it's quite

light, much lighter security, so I think we'll have also to be much

more careful about pilots, stewards, you know, they are part of the

equation, not only the passengers. As was suggested, if you can't trust

the pilot, who can you trust and we all trust the pilots and we don't

even know whether the pilot was involved in this? Yes know nothing.

It seems as though the crew has more questions asked than the passengers.

What do you make of it? Ukrainians have been obsessed with war and how

this is a fascinating story I just think about 239 families who have

been suspended in this agonising wait for any sort of news. Also how

technology is both at the core of this disappearance and at the core

of our coverage of so far fruitless search for the plane which seems to

have totally disappeared from the face of the earth or the ocean and

SATs lites, 21 satellites searching for it `` satellites. Everybody

house wife becomes all of a sudden an expert on transponders and black

boxes, how to find a black box when it's buries thousands of feet under

the water. It's fascinating and in a way, the search itself is a story

when we find the debris of the plane, if ever, it will be over, but

it will be the end of the fascination. Lots of books and

films. I hope that produces pressure so

that aircraft transmitting the black box data while they are still

mid`flight. It is just a question of money and systems, but it can easily

be done. Let's move on. Britain's annual

budget offered some sweeping changes to pensions and one or two other

measures which seemed directed towards older, wealthier voters. But

in reducing tax on beer and bingo, admittedly relatively tiny measures,

has the Chancellor hit on a populist vote`winner ` or was the way it was

presented, as tax relief for working people's pleasures, a bit

condescending, as some critics have claimed? What did you make of it?

The chairman of the Conservative Party suggested it was a beer and

bingo budget. It was a bit bigger than that. It certainly was. They

have smashed open the pensions market. Now every pension pot

holder, it's not just the wealthy, but people with small pensions will

have more flexibility. Fewer and fewer people have pensions, because

they were such a stupid thing to invest in after they were decimated.

Anyway, the year and bingo thing, that was tremendously well played by

Labour, because they had nothing to say about the budget they wanted a

story that would somehow look as if it was damaging the Conservatives.

It was a dumb thing to have done, it was out of touch, patronising and

insulting, but those of us old enough to remember the recall that a

few decades ago, it was common for the Labour Party, when tax was put

on beer or gambling, they said they were taxes on the poorer, as if the

pure had no capacity for cutting back on the smoking or drinking or

gambling, as if they were prisoners of their bad habits. That was the

traditional Labour response to any budget. So I am not terribly

impressed by the Labour Party's critique, because they use to do it

as a matter of course. What surprised me was a budget that

brings about a revolution for people with pensions, was stepped upon so

effectively by this beer and bingo matter, because that was a degree of

incompetence. It is exactly what people like me see Britain as a

class ridden society, we're bingo and beer are seen by the people

ruling Downing Street. The old Etonians, who ruled this country,

have seen it as something to give to the working class. It is terribly

condescending. In meritocratic country like France and Germany or

Scandinavia, we wouldn't dare treat people like that. France doesn't

have a class system? France doesn't have bingo. But it has a real

distinction between urban areas and frugal areas. France doesn't have

five its schools. We'll come back to the beer and bingo in a moment.

The budget was trying not to make a mess, and pensions are technical.

One of the reasons the beer and bingo thing got covered was that

pensions are complicated. People are concerned about it, but annuities,

everybody's eyes glaze over. Our readership that the Telegraph,

everybody over the age of 50 is galvanised. Yes, so this is good for

getting the Tory faithful back. It is not a bad thing in other

respects. The economy is getting a little better, there is still ahead

in the polls. Labour have now decided they are endorsing the

pension policy. Ideal ago, Labour were talking about the living

standards crisis. Osborne did not even talk about that in this budget,

because that has been neutered. It looks like the Conservatives feel

pretty confident towards the next general election. Beer and bingo

didn't seem as condescending as the pension revolution, it was said in

the House of Commons afterwards that some pensioners would be

irresponsible enough to blow some of their pension pots on buying a yacht

or a car. That is condescending, because it meant the commentators

don't trust people. It was Labour who made that case, because they

said it was dangerous to allow people to have control over their

own money. Do you accept that the reason the shambolic budgets come

before was so because of the things like the pasty tax. It was a dumb

thing to do, but I can remember a time not long ago when Labour used

to say taxes on smoking and drinking when an attacker working class

people, because working`class people have no control over their impulses,

so we'll go in for smoking and drinking and gambling as much as

they did before, even though the prices have gone up stop

productivity is low, the deficit will not go down, because the rich

people will go around not bingo tax properly, but basically, there is a

feeling that people are not better off and that is the danger for the

Conservatives. I think that was true a year ago, but less so now. People

are angry about household heating and electricity bills, that is

outrageous. They are not happy about food prices, but I don't think there

is a feeling there was a year ago over a crisis in household income. I

don't think that is the same. Trends are important, so if things appear

to be getting better, people will feel that way. Gtech this is enough

to help it see off UKIP? I think it will help, but emotive

issues on which UKIP operate, they still have some kind of thing going

for them. If the growth rate went up to 5% in six months, OK, but I think

UKIP still has some cards to play. Nigel file which made that point, it

is not just about whether we would be better off or not. Yes he said he

would raise the threshold for higher rate tax. It is a technical matter,

but the higher rate tax has not been increased in anything like realistic

proportions. People are now paying higher rate tax when they are in one

and a half times now the average wage. It brings the immigration

issue again. When they introduced 75% higher tax in France, a famous

French people left France for Russia to escape the tax. Somebody branded

the new budget is seeking the grey boat, and they probably got it

right, because if it is all about the grey boat, the pension form will

do that Conservatives a lot of good. They'd vote. They are the most

reliable voting constituency in the country. People from 45 and 50

onwards, who is that thinking about what they are going to do for their

pension. They start to think about the security of their old age. The

grey boat is a very misleading term. That's it for Dateline London for

this week. We're back next week at the same time. Please join us then.

And you can of course comment on the programme on Twitter @gavinesler

hashtag BBCDATELINE. Goodbye. Good morning. This time last year,

thousands of homes in Northern Ireland were without electricity.

Snow had brought down power lines. There is snow this week, but not as

bad as that. There will be rain, hail,