27/09/2014 Dateline London


27/09/2014

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Now, don't forget, I'll be back with a full bullet not news at the top of

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the hour, but now it is Dateline London. `` a full bulletin of news.

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Hello and welcome to Dateline London. For the third time in over

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20 years, the United Kingdom is military action in Iraq. We will

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devote the question ` when it comes to

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interventions in governments know what they are

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doing? they do know what they are doing,

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what they are it achievable? We're joined by a

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French Algerian Toynbee from the Guardian, and

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Stryker McGuire. That big question, given the brutality of Islamic

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State, as they call themselves, is it necessary to engage in some sort

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of action, and is the West right in doing so? You are asking about the

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legacy the Muslim world, the

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straightforward answer West hardly knows what it is doing

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when it attacks Muslim countries. Just look at the muddled records

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the Western countries such as Afghanistan or indeed Iraq. I spent

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time reporting from Libya as well, where mainly British and French air

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strikes blasted Colonel Gaddafi's regime to pieces. French and British

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jets decided to take sides in a civil war and bring about regime

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change, and look at in the hands of Islamic extremists,

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every bit as murderous and under Mike Ruddock as Gaddafi ``

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undemocratic. So Western military force as time and again proved to be

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a failure in the Middle East, and there is a very strong argument that

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the Islamic State, IS, is a direct result of the illegal Iraq War, and

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the view that violence produces more violence certainly holds up in all

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these cases. So yes, you know, air strikes can go on indefinitely, as

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they did in countries like Afghanistan and Iraq, the war went

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on for a very long time, but this idea that IS will just disappear

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overnight is absolutely nonsense. What are you make of the argument

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made by the British Government yesterday that because there were

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mistakes in the past we should not act now? The main difference with

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this intervention is that IS is a well`defined group. There is no

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ambiguity. There is not much ambiguity about them. They present a

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clear and present danger. They are very well defined as an evil enemy.

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There is a belief they should be destroyed. What this intervention

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highlights, and the way it has been brought about, is not only the

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typical, muddled way of Western meddling if you like in the Arab

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world, but also in consistency. It is commendable to take an ethical

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stance to try to destroy IS. We have not seen this stance reflected when

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it came Palestinians by the thousands in the

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summer by Israel. The best we can achieve in relation to IS is to

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destroy its capabilities and tried to cut off its funding. Those

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arguments are not ultimately accepted that they have played a

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part in the fact that President Obama took a

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long time to come to a decision in the 1st place. People do understand

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done well. There is not a single action in

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channelled success. President Obama knows that. I can see how we have

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come to this point. I can see how we arrived where we are today.

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virtually impossible to see how it will not turn out badly in some way.

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happening. We can protect some people. You certainly cannot destroy

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probably ISIS. You definitely cannot destroy jihadis. You probably can

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make it worse. That is what has happened every time. It is not like

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the last time we did this was in the 19th century. It was

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years ago. Then it was the decade before that. Implicit in what you

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are saying is protecting the Azzidis was a good thing. Some people felt

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there should be no intervention, ever. There are some people who

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believe that. Yes, I can see why you would want to protect a group of

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people who are about to be destroyed. I can also see how the

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beheadings would inflame opinion, which basically, you know, in this

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country and in the United States, kind of opened a window. It is a

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window of opportunity. Now we can justify doing something. People are

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so appalled by what is going on. Where do you think the Iranian

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government is in all of this and what is the role of the

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Revolutionary guard in Iraq? After spending $1 trillion, there has been

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a failure in Iraq. One reason was United States policy has been to

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concentrate leadership within the sheer`macro community without having

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a good governance. `` the Shia community. What is happening in Iraq

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is a reflection of the policies that have been taking place in Iran as

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well. At the same time, Iran is being brought in from the cold.

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Certainly, if there is 1 power, one country, that knows what is going on

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and how to deal with Isis`macro through violent and all of that, it

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is the Iranians regime. There has been the de facto cooperation

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between the United States and the Iranian forces on the ground. This

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is through either the Iraqi government or through certain other

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parties. At the same time, let's not forget, the problem with Iraq has

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been the lack of proper governance. Even now, when you think about Isis,

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what is it made of? There is a very good report that was

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the Conservative Middle East Council. They had visited Iraq in

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September. What it says is, Isis is made up of the good, the bad and the

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ugly. The good of the tribal leaders, the Sunnis, the bad are the

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hard`core jihadists. They are see most of the time on television.

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The ugly are the Ba'athists. The 3 of them together have made this

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is one of the most important thing is that I think the

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the British, the countries who are coming together

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kind of vision do they have after this? What political governance...

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The idea in 2003 that American and British soldiers would be welcomed

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with people bearing roses. It would be a thriving democracy in Iraq. It

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did not look particularly solid at the time. It looks ludicrous now. It

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makes you weep to look back. We will shine a light over

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Middle East and everything will come right because Iraq will be a great,

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pro`Western gem of Western`style democracy. What insanity! I do not

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think, when you look at the debate in the House of Commons in Britain

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yesterday, I do not think ever seen a country more reluctant

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to go to war and yet almost universally with a very heavy heart

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agreed to a very minimalist act. Six planes, a token, a gesture Chu say,

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we are with you, America, but only in Iraq. `` to say. We are trying to

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support the government which has called us in, which looks slightly

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more inclusive than the previous one. Can we protect them from Isis

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taking over? We probably cannot reclaim any ground that Isis has got

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that you might be able to stop them in their tracks and

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from committing genocide. Perhaps you can just contain them in places.

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That is a reasonable objective but how long for? What is the exit

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strategy? Are you there forever? Six planes is not serious. We do not

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feel serious. The reason we are there, oddly enough, is

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because of Ukraine. Everything is connected. If we need the Americans

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to stay as the defenders of Europe, which they have always been. Europe

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is very reluctant to spend money on defence itself with Putin on the

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doorstep, you about your allies will do if they

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ask you to do something, you sort of have to go.

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and a gesture of friendship to an ally we need. Let's pick up the

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sectarian question which is underlying some of this. Surely,

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whatever the cover that has been given to the British by having some

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Sunni allied states, too many Sunni people, as opposed to their

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governments, this may look like an intervention on the side. Who does

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it benefit? It benefits in Tehran, Iraq, President Assad and the

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Alawites. What the West is trying to achieve 1st and foremost,

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particularly America, is that they have strong Arab allies. It is not

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America going it alone or the UK being their prime ally in this

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intervention. I very much agree that Iran has prime role to play in all

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of this. A sheer`macro Irani would upset a Sunni Saudi Arabia in

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joining the coalition. There is a lot of hypocrisy. Let's not forget

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that Saudi Arabia was fuelling the civil war. It was ploughing millions

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of dollars into Al Qaeda. The relationship between Saudi Arabia

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and its Western allies, compliant allies, like Britain and Saudi

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Arabia, is largely a pragmatic and unprincipled one. The amount of

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Saudi Arabia 's oil production can effectively buy them everything in

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terms of interest and influence. We have a very lucrative trade

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partnership and bilateral contract between Saudi Arabia and Britain,

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which is worth more than 15,000,000,000 pounds a year. `` ?15

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million. We must stop this rank hypocrisy. At the same time, we will

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see a new Iraq emerging. It will be a more federal Iraq at best. I think

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the Peshmerga in the Kurdish areas will not fight Isis in stead of the

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Iraqi military. It has just faded away. As you say, trillions of

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dollars have been spent in building up this force. In Afghanistan, we

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built up this force and it was great. Faced with a small number of

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determined people, they melt away. They melt away because their hearts

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are not in it. Their hearts are not in the central government. What we

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are going to see perhaps would beat division between the Shi'ites, the

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border between Iraq and Iran has been in existence since the 16th

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century. There was the Ottoman Empire. Then you will have a Kurdish

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section to the country and also a Sunni dominated area. Do you see any

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chance at all of Saudi Arabia and Iran coming to terms to say,

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listen, it is in both of our interest to stop this? We will

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forgive Saudi Arabia for having fuelled this in the 1st place. Do

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you see any chance of that? Right now, it is back channels and

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low`level. They are working. Certainly the United States and the

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European allies, they all want Tehran and Saudi Arabia to come

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together. You pointed it out best, you created the problem. Russia will

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be a problem. How together to maintain this world politics, world

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balance, when you have Russia and the Security Council becoming more

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and more of a headache to everybody. Did anybody have a clue what success

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would look like in this? Isis will not fade away. Presumably, they can

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be kept back. They cannot strut around as they have been in the

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movement, effectively a Cabrillo movement, from the air, it will not

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happen. `` a gorilla movement. It is hard to see how this will ever be

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resolved. It might be really short term success, success over a period

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of weeks, where you have protected would`be refugees and there is less

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violence and so forth. When you see this situation, it is like... It is

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like the concentric circles of a tree. Or hell! It is like... You

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solve one problem, let's say, Isis. Let's say some have you managed to

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improve the situation on the border. The Kurds have taken more

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territory in not Iraq. Turkey is worried about what will happen and

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what will happen to Assad matters. You have Ukraine, you have it wrong

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and Saudi Arabia. You have the UK, the US and Europe. I do not know

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about success. It is virtually impossible to imagine what it would

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look like. After World War I when these borders were drawn, there was

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a contract in Versailles, people came up with a plan. At the end of

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the Cold War, it just kind of happened and nobody came up with

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Europe should look like. There has been no

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I think people believed by the of the Middle East.

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I think people believed by the end of the Soviet empire that

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self`determination was it, countries should be allowed to choose what

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they want, and it ignored all of the realpolitik that, in the end, the

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big powers lean heavily who is weak. Somebody pretended

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democracy on its own would make these places free. You are

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free if you are being lent on. Many of these

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Nations states, they were cobbled together by outsiders. If I may add,

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one of the problems from onwards was the quantification of

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democracy, one man, one vote, whereas it is more than numbers.

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Democracy is based on certain values and principles. Certainly, women's

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rights is number one, and what happened in Iraq after 2003, all

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Iraqi women, doctors, professionals, they had to go back under the threat

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of the veil, so hopefully one of the lessons that they will learn from

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2003 is that to involve civil society, to bring in women, bring in

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different groups, different religions and NGOs, to see, what is

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the vision they want to have after ISIS has gone? It

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generational struggle, because without the participation of the

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Sunnis, nothing will happen, ordinary Sunnis. Yes, I think that

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although there is a strong coalition that is determined to crush IS, I

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think the way the different countries go about doing it is

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different. For example, the French approach, you know, we don't

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normally associate French left`wing governments with hawkish approach to

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foreign policy, or indeed with air strikes, and I do believe that this

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global fight against radical Islam is in fact providing a great deal of

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relief to President Holland, whose domestic approval rating is at 13%.

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`` Hollande. Foreign adventures, it almost provides, you know, something

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for a struggling head of state. He has sent troops to African

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countries, but I do not think we will see the same level of

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commitment in Iraq. I do think it is clear that Cameron will have gained

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out of this. He will not have lost, because he has the support of the

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other parties, whatever will not really be his fault, but I

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do not think you can say he has gone to war in that spirit of, I know,

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election. I think it would be unfair to say that

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did not want to go back into Iraq, there

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we ought to fix it. Do you fix it by breaking it a bit

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secret that the French have been paying hundreds of millions of

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April, and they need to coordinate all of that.

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tackle the real problem! In the few minutes we

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this week? The way in which he passed the problem,

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think it is. I think there is absolutely no question that the

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some overwhelming reason, why we should. You have the Prime

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small gesture of support. I think he was absolutely right to say,

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that there is no exit strategy, there is

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More than that, he came across as wishy`washy with no

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opposite. He comes across as a very intelligent

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would have been a bad mistake. But a leader of a

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supporting in Syria? We had no idea.

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are on in Syria. At least we have got a site to be on in Iraq.

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changing power. This is a shrinking power. The US is also a

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But this country is getting smaller geopolitically, and it

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Minister has to figure out, what is our foreign policy? So far it seems

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second strand is to protect UK business

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has been, essentially, to do what the US does, except that then it

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now we are doing it. So this country is going

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thus! We haven't had a foreign policy

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the war. Oh. In the minute we have got left, the

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solution to what is fundamentally an Arab problem?

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be putting more trust in giving more responsibility to the neighbours of

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Iraq. Including Turkey. Iran is not an Arab state. I am aware of that!

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Iran has capability, Turkey is part of NATO. The UAE, I was in the UAE

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last week, and there is a strong determination to prove to the world

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that IS has nothing to do Islam, it is totally an Islamic, and

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they want to show that it doesn't represent their culture, their

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values, let them act... It is for those countries who call

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themselves the Islamic, like Saudi Arabia and Iran, to start treating

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that citizens much better, like the women, the Sue `` they have to set

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an example on how to behave. That is it for Dateline London from next

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week, you can comment on the programme at Twitter at @gavinesler.

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Thank you for watching and goodbye. Much of September has been

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relatively dry and warm, and that is the way we're going

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