27/02/2016 Dateline London

Hello and welcome to Dateline London.

European neighbour, Ireland.

And the prospects for a ceasefire in Syria.

who is an Irish writer and broadcaster,

Nazenin Ansari of Iran's Kayhan London.

Abdel Bari Atwan who is an Arab writer

Britain has one land border with a European Union country -

Ireland - which has had its own election this week,

as Britain prepares for a referendum on EU membership.

What differences would an out vote make to relations with Britain's

Are people interested in this in Ireland or do they not care? Yes.

Counting the votes today in Ireland in the General Election. It is very

unclear how they are going to form a coalition. A lot of people suggest

between free Miguel, the outgoing party and Fianna fail, the party

booted out in 2011 after the economic collapse. Best Fine Gael.

The one thing for sure is that whichever government is in power in

a week or so's time, one of the things that will be keeping them

awake at night is the result of the vote on the 23rd June here and

whether Britain stays in the European Union or not. Ireland wants

Britain to remain in the European Union for economic reasons. Written

is Ireland's biggest single export market, and if you look at the

figures between both Britain and Ireland it's something like 1

billion euros, almost 1 billion sterling a week moving between the

two Rylance, 400,000 jobs on the two Islands dependent on that trade.

Nobody is suggesting it's all going to stop. But there is a lot of

uncertainty. Uncertainty is bad for investment. Do you think the broad

view in Ireland is the same as from the G20, which is "Shock" to the

world economy and the chancellor George Osborne is saying it would be

an even bigger shock to Great Britain and presumably to Ireland?

Absolutely. Ahmmed is a small, open economy. Ireland is very open to any

of the global shocks that they have been talking about in the G20 for

the last couple of days, no doubt about that. But Britain leaving the

EU would definitely be an economic shock to Ireland. Isn't the problem

with the stay in side, Polly, that it is riven with uncertainty?

The Chancellor said also it would be a leap in the dark to leave but

isn't it a leap in the dark to stay because the European Union is

changing so rapidly to Schengen may be completely finished. Are

discharging so rapidly we don't know what we'd be staying in, never mind

what we'd be getting out of. We're not in Schengen anyway so that

doesn't affect us. We're not in the euro and not in a lot of things. I

think that the future is always uncertain. You are always going to

have to take a punt. Do we think the risk is being here and there? It is

true that Europe is at the moment is not an easy sell. It's in a state of

chaos and in a state of fury with the self, that used against the

West, North against the South, austerity, migration, one of this is

a really difficult time for the on campaign to be saying, isn't it

wonderful? But on the whole the balance of probabilities, it won't

be about the details, endless figures will be slung across

television studios like this and people will have to say, in the end,

as they do at general elections, do I basically think this lot or that

lot are safer for me, my family, my job, my mortgage, my children's

future and my country's future? In the end they just have to plump for

one or the other. Iran has its own problems and is not the trading

partner it was in the past to Britain. What are your views about

this and the choice that will dominate our politics for the next

three months? Obviously when you look at Ireland and Britain they

have so much in common, it is part sentimentality, it is history,

culture as you said, geography, and as you said trade between the two is

1 billion euros a week, which is immense. Obviously I think one thing

that I think we haven't heard about which is why Britain should stay in

Europe, how Europe has been good for modern. It has always been appealing

to our fears. They should come a time when we appeal to what is good

and positive happening. -- good for Britain. If Britain leaves Europe,

one has to say, perhaps actually Ireland will benefit from that

Brexit. The Institute for economic and social research Institute said

inward foreign direct investment into Ireland might increase to $6.6

billion. Because if you are looking for an English speaking country in

the European Union Ireland would be a good place to start? Obviously the

language is there and they share a common border. There are a lot of

positives. These are all uncertainties and estimates, very

broad estimates. Investors want certainty, as much certainty as

possible. But at the same time, if I may, there is something else that

Britain and Ireland, a few other things that Britain and Ireland

share in common, that's their financial services, the

international market will stop they have a lot of economic approach that

is very much the same. Please, go on. I'm really surprised I couldn't

understand the oddments of the Eurosceptics to be honest. Even if

the Eurozone is facing difficulties, the European Union facing a lot of

problems, immigration... This is not an excuse for written to say you are

sinking and I'm jumping off the boat. -- Britain to say. This is

really shocking. And what shocked me more was somebody like Boris Johnson

who is the mayor of a cosmopolitan city of London where everybody is

coexisting cannot coexist with other Europeans and says, we should leave

the European Union. What kind of mentality is this? The argument is

we would have more control over our laws and destiny and the European

Union isn't working and hasn't worked for us, that is effectively

the argument, and it's about sovereignty for Britain. The counter

are you sovereign when you join Nato? And when you have this special

relationship with the United States fighting its war all over the world?

This is the problem. Are you sovereign if you quit the European

Union? What will happen after that? It is a very strong club and you are

leaving it command the problem is this country could be disintegrated,

to be honest, if you wanted the Scots to stay in the United Kingdom

and now you want to quit the European Union, why should the Irish

and the Scots and Welsh stay with you? Even worse, the Good Friday

Agreement come and that is predicated on a guarantee from

Dublin for peace in Northern Ireland. If we have to go through a

whole huge treaty negotiation across the border, may be risking a lot of

that billion dollar a week trade what happens to the Good Friday

Agreement and how much at risk is it? I really wanted to annoy you by

asking why is it that if Fianna fail and Fina girl have set their face

against sharing power with Sinn Fein but happy to let them share power in

Northern Ireland with the Democratic Unionist Party can what is it about

Fianna fail and Fina girl that doesn't recognise there have been

changes within Sinn Fein? LAUGHTER

How long have we got? -- Fina Gail and Fianna Fail. On the exit polls

it looks like the only workable coalition would be between Fianna

Fail and Fina Gail at the moment. They have this historical divide

since the Civil War. There is nothing between them politically, or

socially. They were both on the same side during the marriage equality

referendum last year, for example. There is no reason why they couldn't

govern together. What Fianna Fail is worried about is it will cast Sinn

Fein is the main opposition party, a left-wing opposition party against a

coalition of two centre-right parties. But it will also mean that

one will eat the other in that coalition. Which is what we have

seen here. Look at the Tories and Liberal Democrats. Somebody will

come out worse and Fianna Fail are recovering after taking a big drop

in the polls in 2011 and they don't want to be left with Fine Gael on

one side in the coalition and the other Republican party, Sinn Fein,

in opposition. Sorry to interrupt you. The question about the border.

How dangerous would vote no be in Northern Ireland? Enda Kenny, the

Taoiseach came to the Confederation of British Industry last November

and he said, I can't remember his exact words, but he intimated that

it would put things at risk in Northern Ireland, the political

settlement. He got criticised for that. But in reality, what the Good

Friday Agreement and the whole political infrastructure that has

been very carefully put together relies on, is the integrity of the

United Kingdom and the integrity of the Republic of Ireland. If we are

talking about a second Scottish referendum and then Scotland decides

to leave, the United Kingdom starts to fracture before you even get to

the stage of whether Northern Ireland would want to stay, you are

taking away the scaffolding that is holding up this delicate

power-sharing arrangement. Nobody is suggesting it's perfect, but it

stopped the war and it is working. Let's move on because we are going

to be talking about this for the next decade, probably!

Please welcome the next president of the United States -

Well, that is at least how he is introduced at Republican Party

rallies - but could the boast become a reality?

He has cheered up journalists all over the world, they have plenty to

write about now! Plenty to write about but do we wish to live in

exciting times? Not that exciting! What is extraordinary for

journalists is when you transcribe his speeches, they are not speeches,

just strings of we are going to win again and strings of vague

aspirations. Make America great again. Make America great again,

build a wall, all of it non sequiturs and nothing you can get a

grip on, you cannot say he would do this or that. There are people who

say that Ted Cruz would be a more alarming proposition for anybody in

the centre or the centre-left, that he has a much more rigorous

right-wing agenda and that Trump is so all over the place but possibly a

certain kind of pragmatism with civil servants takes hold and he

might not be quite as terrifying as his hair looks!

LAUGHTER I wonder if one of the problems of

seeing British and European coverage of American politics, having

witnessed it for years is the tendency to seize like Donald Trump

as if his stupid and he's absolutely not stupid. He's very shrewd, in my

opinion, whether you agree with his policies or not. He's not stupid,

definitely. To win three out of four and be ahead of everybody in the

polls means he managed to communicate with the people. He

managed to pass the message that people would like, or some people,

would like to hear. It is true he's inciting violence, he's inciting

hatred, he's inciting wars. But the problem is he realises that the

United States is facing a lot of problems, losing a lot of its image,

strength for the last eight years or so during Obama. He has deployed

this to his advantage. The problem is this man has no experience.

That's his 7-point. A lot of people say that is his selling point. --

selling point. If somebody made a lot of money here from the property

boom is he entitled to be the Prime Minister? What is his experience?

It's not going to affect the United States, it's going to affect us.

That's the problem, it's going to affect the whole world. What is his

economic experience? What is his agenda for the Far East and the

Middle East, and economic meltdown, economic crisis, Europe? We have

never heard anything about this. How can a presidential candidate not

tell us his relation, or how he will deal with these international

problems? We know he has said a lot of things. One of the things about

Obama is like in New Hampshire NPR did a National Public Radio study on

how much was spent per vote and Mr Obama had spent $31, whereas Mr Bush

had spent over $500 and he had lost. I think Mr Obama and Mr Trump. Not

easy to confuse! They are both using social media and that's one of the

aspects you have to look at with the Trump candidacy. What Polly was

saying is it's ideal for the Twitter generation, 140 character policies.

He has policies that stick to aspirations. The press don't like

Trump, the institutions don't like Trump, but Trump appeals to the

voter. That's because the people don't like the press and don't like

the institutions, many of them. That is why they vote for Trump. He is

antiestablishment. The reason antiestablishment works at the

moment is because deep down people's living standards that they've been

used to all of their lives, increasing year by year, have

absolutely stagnated. The middle and below right across Europe and

America have found their standard of living effectively deteriorating.

Elizabeth Warren, Senator for Massachusetts, interesting

commentator on this, said the trouble is that the middle-class is

either or dying as far as many people are concerned they feel the

great American middle class which has been responsible for the

post-war boom has gone. It has gone, the baby boomers. It is the

polarisation of politics. We see it in lots of other countries, in

Britain to a certain extent. It is not unusual. The thing that

surprised me was I was trying to think if Donald Trump work to become

President, has there ever been a President who came from business in

America? Isn't it surprisingly hasn't? I can't think of any. From

the military. From the military and political establishment but not

somebody from real estate. He is from property. There are those who

say that given the enormous inheritance he has, if he'd simply

invested it in the stock market he'd be roughly as rich as he is now. Or

he would be richer. He hasn't made much of the vast inheritance he has.

And he doesn't have a connection with manufacturing or real business.

Talking about social media, I will tell you about it in the middle

east. The most popular people on Twitter are those preachers of

hatred in our part of the world who are supporting Islamic State, Isis.

This is the problem. Al Baghdadi is like Donald Trump, for example. Both

of them are using social media in order to communicate with people.

You cannot go that far! Al Baghdadi and Donald Trump. We can go that far

because Donald Trump is advocating... Donald Trump has not

promoted violence. Yet! He has said don't allow Muslims in. This is

hatred, racism. That is true. But once the primaries are over he will

start eating up his words. If he becomes President, can he travel to

Saudi Arabia, for example? No. Prince Walid, who is one of the

richest man in Saudi Arabia has said has saved Mr Trump twice from

bankruptcy. He will start to eat his own words. But he is not inciting

violence. We don't have any guarantees, this is your wishful

thinking. That he will eat his words. It is interesting that all of

the people planning to ban Mr Trump from coming to the United Kingdom

have gone remarkably silent now he is possibly going to be the next

President. That was always a fringe movement and a spasm of terror. It

is true that if he has said he will allow no more Muslims in, how are

Muslims within America going to feel them and how will Muslims in the

world feel, even if he doesn't want to go to war as George Bush did with

Muslims, he needs to be in a position to make peace and have

influence and relationships. Banning Trump got debated in the House of

Commons. You only get a little debate in Westminster, which nobody

reports on, or pays any attention. It was debated by MPs. Let's move on

to what might be good news. A cessation of hostilities has

been announced in Syria And if possible - where would that

leave the fight against so-called It has been quite quiet. It is just

a few hours. Everybody is happy that it is to holding and there has not

been any bombardment. But this is extremely misleading. The

bombardment is continuing. Because the al-Nusra Front, Isis, they are

not included in this kind of ceasefire. The Russians will

continue bombing their position and we don't know what will happen. OK,

the Russians can strike a deal with Bashar Al-Assad, say to him stay

quiet, listen to us, we are your boss. But whether the Americans can

actually silence or impose this ceasefire on 250 factions, armed

factions in Syria, is the biggest challenge. What will happen after

the ceasefire? The Turks themselves who are a major player will save we

will continue shelling the Kurds and we will not commit ourselves to this

ceasefire. So it is not going to work, honestly. And what will happen

after that, OK, if it collapses, what will happen? The division of

Syria as John Kerry warned us. If it does succeed there will be a

political solution. It is very ambiguous. How can you monitor the

ceasefire? You don't have troops on the ground. You don't have the UN on

the ground to tell who is violating it and who has committed to it. This

is the problem. How is it seen from Terad, there is the political

context with the election is going on, how do people view this --

Tehran. The people of Iran who went and voted yesterday don't want a

rainier involvement in the Syria. Iran has paid a heavy price for its

involvement in Syria. -- Iranians and. Over 100 commanders have died

and more than $10 billion has been spent. Up to $15 billion, 2014-15.

It has been a costly exercise for the Islamic regime in Iran. For the

deep state that is ruling Iran today. But on the positive side in

the past year there has apparently been a reduction of Iranians

involvement in Syria as the Russians have taken over. But at the end of

the day one thing which is positive and which might guarantee at least

that there will be some sort of ceasefire going on is the agreement

between Russia and America. I think what you see happening in Syria is

something in between, two states coming and the United States on one

side and Russia on the other side, trying to settle scores between each

other. And Ukraine is part of that. Let's be optimistic, doesn't 24

hours yet and according to the last bullet and it is kind of holding.

There are bound to be, because there always are and lots of people who

won't agree with the ceasefire, there are bound to be car bombs,

explosions and attacks, to which either side can be provoked into

getting back into the bombing. What is important, and the way Obama has

put this has been sensible, saying that will happen and this always

happens and we just have to Hope that the goodwill of the Americans,

Russians and Bashar Al-Assad holds. Because, five years of this has

disrupted the whole world to such a degree and brought us to the brink

of the new Cold War, hot war, between superpowers, and look what

it has done to Europe in terms of the migration crisis which is

destroying the European Union. Everything possible has to be pulled

together to try and make this hold. And there will be disruptions and

there will be breaking of it. The most dangerous point is the

situation, the tension between Turkey and Russia. Nato power

against Russia, very scary. Both of them saying, OK, if you provoke us

we will bomb you. This is the problem. The Turks are very

sensitive here. The convocation is, Erdogan is a close ally of the

United States -- complication. At the same time America are backing

and supporting the Kurds who are his archenemies there. How is it going

to work? This is the problem. This is a five or six way international

war where everybody is fighting their own personal part. Ekiza that

fragmentation it is almost a certainty that it is going to break

down. The cessation of hostilities or the ceasefire will break down,

whatever you call it. Let's hope it doesn't break down to the extent

that the aid they are trying to deliver gets delivered first.

Do you think, in terms of Syria and Iraq, it's a bit difficult to see

Humpty Dumpty being put back together again. In other words, you

raise the prospect of countries shattering apart, which is what

Turkey feels because where does that leave the Kurds? They would be an

important player in that. Do you think we will ever go back to the

100-year-old Borders? This is the problem. Lots of talks in the middle

east that these borders will be rectified and it will be a division

according to sectarian affiliation, or according to ethnic groups.

People, especially in Turkey, have a feeling that America would like to

rectify the Western mistake 100 years ago and create some sort of

Federation for the Kurds, because they are the only people who were

left out of the agreement. The Turks are very sensitive and it seems that

this kind of Kurdish entity is emerging now in the north of Syria

at the border with Turkey. I don't agree with that because the Kurds

are divided between themselves and the Iranians Kurds, for example,

don't agree with the other Kurds. They do. They do not. They see

themselves as Iranians first. They do not. Their language is different.

We will leave it there. Thank you all very much.

That's it for Dateline London for this week.

You can comment on the programme on Twitter @gavinesler.

Hello. Most of us will have a dry weekend, some of us will stay fairly

cloudy and there will be a brisk wind blowing across the South but

there should be some sunshine and I fancy the Highlands of Scotland