25/06/2016 Dateline London

Hello, and welcome to Dateline London.

Britain leaves the European Union the Prime Minister stands down

With me today to discuss the past, the present and the future,

Agnes Poirier of Marrianne, Thomas Kielinger of Die Welt,

Stephanie Baker of Bloomberg News and Alex Deane,

So Britain votes to leave the EU, David Cameron says he is standing

down, the pound falls, stock markets take a huge hit,

so let me start by asking you all in turn, what do you make

We all felt a universal shock. Increasing the leave camp. I cannot

shower that sentiment. I was intrigued, elated, and I believe the

British people where... Stephanie. I think the vote was very narrow, and

the country has to come to terms with that that the country is

incredibly divided on the future is very uncertain. We have seen from

the markets, in some cases it was worse than expected. For David

Cameron, what went wrong. Wait a minute, I will answer the question

you asked everyone else. The market did not crash. Fitzy finished higher

-- the Fitzy was higher than attended last Friday. Currencies go

up and down, like markets go up and down, because they overreact to some

events. In both a positive and negative sense. There is an

underlying stability to the British economy, which is unchanged note to

what it was last week. My answer is it was not a shock at all, and it

was pretty clear, contrary to Stephanie's suggestion, bearing in

mind the forces that were arrayed on the half of the campaign. The Prime

Minister is right, the British people spoke clearly, and that must

be respected and their instruction must be carried out. So why did the

Remain campaign not get there boys out there? The Remain campaign

thought they had it in the bag, and they thought the more voices they

had from international regimes, from banks, religious organisations and

so forth, sporting personalities, they thought the more that that

happened the better the campaign got. Actually, I think their

campaign got worse as those advocates became louder, and people

felt, you know, you're not all in it together, and you do not represent

me, so stop running my country down, and think we're going to be fine.

The second reason is this. Border control is not racist, and a desire

to control those who are unable to come to your country is a perfectly

respectable and logical thing for people to feel. They were dismissed

as people who were racist, they did not listen to their concerns, the

reinforced their views that migration wasn't working for people

who depended on public services, that we had lost any meaningful

control over our own orders and the only way to get those back was to

leave the European Union and re-gain control over the borders. Leave

something spoke of those things, some things did not. But the Remain

campaigner address that basic concern. Let us get a European

perspective on how this is being seen outside of the UK. Well, the

reaction has so many different types of reactions in France. There is

sadness, we have lost a member of a family, there has been a death in

the European family. There is another one coming from the

sovereignty, Marie le pen, and from the left, saying good news, we will

hold a referendum as well, and also in other countries in Europe because

it is time to get back control, as Boris Johnson said many times. Let

us go back to nation states. There is another part of France that says,

fantastic, it is also good news. I had friends who drank champagne

yesterday, saying, for the last 40 years Britain has been the most

irritating partner in the European Union, and they have always wanted

to destroy Europe, they did not know whether to do it from within or

outside. And now we can at least restart, reboot, whatever, the

European project. So this is good news. It is quite interesting, and

I'm sure there are other types of reactions. Basically we do not know

what is going to happen. I do not think Britain is going to sink. In

terms of the economy it is going to be fine. But of course the irony

might be more bureaucracy because you have do extricate Britain from

European laws, and it has been so entwined for the last 45 years.

Also, what do you do with European people living in the UK? You might

need more papers. There might be more bureaucracy. It is interesting

to watch, and I'm sure it is the same in Germany. Unlike my own

personal reaction, which was lacking in shock, the political

establishment was shocked because they feel a natural affinity to

Britain as a partner, and to see Britain go does not make us happy.

Do you get the same sense that we have been a bit of an irritant in

Europe? In the latter stages, they begin to understand that Britain is

not just irritating, she is different. Reality begins with these

things. Ireland is a different kettle of fish. People are beginning

to understand that there is more to Britain than just saying no. Will

Germany miss us? The will and they will do everything to predict there

is a modicum to be found to keep her on board somehow. It has already

been bandied about, spreading the word about associate relationships

in the European Union. Can we have that? As long as you're willing to

put an emergency brake on immigration. Blood already saying

Angela Merkel should have understood earlier that immigration would be

the decisive issue. -- people are already saying. Something has to

give. I am sure, in the negotiations that will know when Stu, a lot of

positive things will develop to make quite sure... There will be some

resentment also. Why should the UK be a special case? Reality speaks...

I do not think it is going to be rosy. What about the United States,

Stephanie, I am afraid you will have to talk about the United States. I

have been listening to people being interviewed in this treat for the

leave campaign, and in fact quite a few of them have said they voted

leave because President Obama asked them to Vote Remain. I will not wind

it all on President Obama, but what sense do you get? -- I will not

blame it all. I was just back from Scotland, where Donald Trump blamed

him as well. But I do not think we can blame it on his intervention.

The US obviously is looking at this with a great deal of concern. There

are questions over the future of the EU. One of the remarkable things

that I noted when I was up there covering Donald Trump was how he

drew parallels between his own renegade presidential campaign and

the Brexit vote. Talking about how people are angry, wanting to take

control of their borders, so I think broadly it strengthens the hands of

the likes of Donald Trump and Marie Le Pen -- Marine Le Pen. How do we

go from here? We have not voted for anything, we have just voted against

something. So there is no mandate as to what we want to negotiate. This

associate membership is really interesting that I really wonder

whether it goes any further, are other countries going to be

clamouring for the same thing? Would that be bad? Not necessarily, but it

creates a lot of instability. Instability is one of these words

being thrown around, but this is also full of opportunities and

challenges. I am reminded of 1989, when the Berlin Wall fell, and

Germans were related. Look at what happened after, it emerged into a

new alignment of world order is. I do predict something similar. I

agree it is of similar historical importance, but we have not voted

for a specific model we go on to. The distinction I would make is that

we voted for change, and for a vote of confidence in ourselves as a

country, to be able to take command of our own economy and destiny.

There is a certain robust confidence. In the face of every

dire warning, and that is another reason I think they lost, they

overdid it. They promised plagues of locusts, and that the ground would

open up and swallow as. If you overpromise something, people

dismiss it. Are you saying that people did not want to Vote Remain,

so they fed into leave? Do they think -- do you think they lost it

themselves? It is usually a government's vote to lose, rather

than the opposition to win. It was the remain camped to lose, they

spend more money, they had most of the political players and political

parties on their side. For the reasons we have discussed, it was

rhetoric no one wind-up or leaving in the end. Complacency of those

involved. It lost it for themselves. Last reason I think they lost it was

if the Prime Minister had come back from Brussels with a more

substantial set of post-negotiation outcomes, at our situation had

genuinely changed, it would be more difficult for the leave campaign...

But that would never have been good enough. He shot himself in the foot

from the beginning. Whatever they came back with it would never have

been good enough. But I thought it would be symbolic. It was symbolic,

but I do not think people would have been happy in the Tory party. This

campaign has revealed a lot of fractures. If you look at the young

vote, what do you do in the country -- a country where people from the

age of 18 to 35 voted massively for remaining? Are we saying that the

votes of older people are worthless? I am not saying one is better than

the other, but there is a generational gap, then look at the

Tory party and the Labour Party, they are in disarray. The fractures

are going to heal... Let us speak about Scotland and Northern Ireland,

who voted to remain. Stephanie, just one point. Before this, I will go

back to President Obama again, they said that we would go to the back of

the queue. Are you getting a sense that moving forward, that is where

the UK will be, at the back of the queue? It depends on who wins in

November. If Donald Trump wins, the UK will not be at the back of the

queue. If Hillary Clinton does, it may do. There is a lot of

uncertainty over that election. Why would she want to punish the UK? It

is not a matter of punishing the UK, this is the thing that has bothered

me in this whole debate, is this belief that we can negotiate these

great trade deals once we get out of the EU. It just goes against the

very notion of how these trade deals are done. It is the bigger economies

that have the power and get to set the terms. So just because the UK

comes knocking on their door asking for a trade deal, well, China is far

more important than the UK. But the UK was a gateway to Europe? Yes, and

the concern as well as that the UK economy goal from fifth largest in

the world to sixth-largest, just because of the drop in the pound,

which feeds into the argument that one of the reasons the UK became the

fifth largest economy is because it was part of the EU and there was

that certainty. But currencies fluctuate, don't they? Yes, and it

has fluctuated a lot since then. This may bring about a new boost.

That is the silver lining, it could be good for exports, it is probably

bad for consumers, and foreign investment will slow down. But if

the pound has gone down and it is easier to invest, wide with the go

down? Because of what the companies are saying. So no economic bases? We

do not have certainty even over who the next government is. There was no

relationship between the EU and America to begin with, we do not

have bilateral agreements. So how can we say there will -- we will be

at the end of the queue? He wants a deal with the EU, that is a more

important deal for him. The status quo is no deal, so when he says

there is no deal with the UK, that is what we have already. Let us look

at where we go from here. What happens next for Europe? I know it

is a big question, and all of you can have a go, but what are the

possibilities now? It reminds me of the newspaper this morning, what the

hell happens now? This is the 1,000,000-dollar question. Article

50, if we look practically. Written has the upper hand because it has to

trigger it in order for the machine to begin the process. We already

have Martin Schulz in Brussels, and Jean-Claude Juncker, who I think

should resign, saying that we cannot wait for another three or four

months, that the Tory party resolves its leadership problems, I have

sympathy for that position, yes. So they are applying pressure, so now

we have to look in the small case of the treaty. What can we do? It is in

the interest of everyone, I think, to go as quick as possible. I am not

sure. This is a time for reflection, this discussion which is in -- about

the most civil discussion, probably demonstrates that we could do with

reflection before moving on. What would that do? It allows you to do

what we're doing now, getting a ministerial working party to look at

the key requirements the UK would want to have in our relations with

the EU, it would enable the establishment of a working group, it

would drop on industrialists, businessmen, people we should be

engaging in the process. There is no need to rush. We are still a member

of the EU for now. But we do not want it to drug for ten years. That,

I accept, but Jean-Claude Juncker, instead of getting it with good

grace, he has told us to get out and get on with it. I think that is

wrong. We should take a little time to decide exactly how we want

article 52 play out. It is our decision to make. There is a

responsibility now to exercise our rights under article 50, to say we

need to leave these arrangements. Angela Merkel is also asking for

calm and caution and a period of reflection. Apart from all of

this... You cannot trigger this process right now with the last

dying embers of Cameron. But Cameron said before, he would trigger

Article 50 straightaway. He was right not to. He does not want to do

all the hard work. When you consider what is at stake, all of the more

reason to give yourself time to reflect and give this new leader

time to get into the groove. Let us go back to what you were saying

earlier and discuss a bit more what an associated membership might mean.

Two things to consider how this process will involve. There is a

domestic one. -- Eve all. We have a huge remain majority among the

members of Parliament, and they are in a position at each stage of the

legislative process of Britain to put a spanner in the works and not

go along with it. The process in itself is going to be difficult.

Look at the European picture, they will do everything to make it

possible to come to an amicable agreement. Nobody wants ever more

destruction. Jean-Claude Juncker... But he is a yesterday man. He needs

to watch his back. Abel will get out there dad is. It is an interesting

concept, some form of associate membership. -- they will get there

daggers out. Some of this has to be forged. God willing we can forecast

all the doom the way, but we are likely to still be the largest

customer of the EU when we leave it. I think the relationship will carry

on some bases. Of course there is this floor of trade, but let's be

clear, Britain is not moving off into the mid-Atlantic. We are

European in so many ways. Part of history, culturally, linguistically,

so I think we have got to come down the rhetoric -- combine the rhetoric

and say we will not be a full member, and I think that is a good

thing. I also think those who are speculating from the perspective of

having wanted us to remain have got to get on board with the fact that

we voted to leave, rather than their main focus being that people of a

certain age voted in this direction. And the petition which has over half

a million signatories to do it all again. Which is just ridiculous,

obviously. People have to accept that the will of the British people

has been expressed. It was close, but not that close. I think Scotland

is going, and I might see in my lifetime Ireland being reunited.

London might be a citystate, like the Vatican, all we need is the

Pope. Come on. If Brexit happens... It is going to happen. We never

thought it would happen. Many others were not shocked. But the Scots are

on their way out. We should talk about the English. The Scots in the

last parliament voted to remain part of the United Kingdom, and I'm sure

you can appreciate they are two different questions. Membership of

the EU and United Kingdom are two different questions, and more than a

million Scots voted to leave the EU, so the most peculiar thing from a

populist politician like Nicola Sturgeon is to trash the will of

more than 1 million of her countrymen and women and say that

they were wrong. But she has two ignore the 62% of those who wanted

to remain? But she should not ignore the more than 1 million who voted to

leave. We have just a few minutes left,

so let me end by asking you all whether or not you can see

a silver lining in any There was no bank failure in the

wake of this. This is not as bad as the banking crisis yet. I do worry

that we have only had one and day of market reaction, this really needs a

lot more time to sink in, and I worry that there will be lots of

volatility, but ultimately people will realise the consequences are

severe, that the United Kingdom itself is in question. And I think

people will be given anticipating and except, making -- and exit,

making this business decisions on this. Your question, what is the

silver lining? But this is good news. We will be ruled once again by

Westminster rather than have our Parliament and judiciary subject to

people... Do not shake your head. That is a good thing. Know that that

decision has been made, I wish the BBC would get on board with that a

little more. The silver lining comment is because we were mostly

talking about the doom. I think we will start the European Union on new

bases. A new chapter? And perhaps a more democratic one. It is a wake-up

call, and Europe will have to be true to its words that they want to

reformat and rejuvenate. I have always learned that this country

will find the resilience to withstand this. In 1940 Church all

decided to stand on freedom and courage. And I think something like

that will see us through. -- Winston Churchill.

That's it for Dateline London for this week -

we're back next week at the same time.

You can comment on the programme on Twitter

Good afternoon. It has been a lively day of whether. Some places have had

a bit of a charmed life, with a good deal of sunshine. But there are lots

of showers. You can see a