16/07/2016 Dateline London


16/07/2016

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LineFromTo

Hello and welcome to Dateline London.

:00:22.:00:23.

In today's programme: the attempted coup in Turkey,

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the horrors in France and the enormous political

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My guests today are Guney Yildez, Turkish journalist,

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Benedicte Paviot of France 24, Suzanne Lynch of the Irish Times and

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What we know. Do you think the people of Turkey were really shocked

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and surprised when they thought the Army was out? This is a big shock. I

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was speaking to a senior party member yesterday in the heat of the

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incident, the governing party, and he was telling me they were

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expecting it. The new that some people in the mill table plotting

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for a coup. They are so well organised. They weren't sure how it

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would turn out. The president of the blame on a movement, Turkish

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Islamist -based. A lot of followers in Turkish security. I book two is

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books person as well and they the distant themselves but when asked if

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they would condemn this coup, didn't want to do that. This was an

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unsuccessful coup organised by mid two senior level soldiers, a naval

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force and the first Army division, it is not a small group of soldiers

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acting on this. It was very well planned an e-mail to a level because

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the coup was conditionally took strongholds of Turkish intelligent

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-- intelligence. Also, special police forces which have grown under

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the present and become a rival to the Army. On an administrative

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level, it didn't sound like it was well organised. They didn't have any

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access to the media. Mainstream media. The statement they read out

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on state TV wasn't clear. What the motivation was over the state was

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unclear. It allowed Government to get ahead of them very quickly in a

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few hours. Wright that has happened in the past in the last 50 years or

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so. They welcomed this at the time because they thought it would bring

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stability or the military could bring stability. This is a

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completely different poetical situation. Turkey had for different

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coups in the past. The last one in 1997 was a soft coup but in all

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these cases it was the military which didn't have any arrivals like

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intelligent or police force, it was acting against weak civilian

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Government, any turbulent situation and people welcomed it but this time

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we have a strong Government has control over a significant part of

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the security establishment, it is not just one coup, a three coup

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against the army, police and strong civilian Government. This is a

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country that has aspirations to join Europe, it has changed, people can

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be executed in Turkey in order to do so and it is right on the border.

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This comes as a shock? The whole geopolitical context of this is

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hugely significant. This is very much the case. It is a member of

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Nato and this has huge ramifications in terms of what happens now between

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Turkey and Greece. It is a US ally bobbled that relationship has come

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under pressure. Most importantly for Europe, the timing is interesting.

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We have seen an unprecedented engagement with the EU by Turkey to

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assess the migrant crisis. Many people accused the EU for a cynical

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move offering Turkey promises of further these and access to the EU

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in exchange for helping with the migrant crisis led by Anglo-American

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who was driving this. Anglo-American's gamble has paid off

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as the number of migrants coming through from Turkey to Greece has

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fallen back now ironically what may happen is that as the reaction plays

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later in the president in the next few weeks, we may see a hardening of

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response from Turkey, a clamp-down on dissent, political dialogue and

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that will give the EU a pretext for not giving these are true -- Visa

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free travel to Europe. That is part of the point. Turkey is a democracy

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in that has elections but minority views are not taken into account. In

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the way that the EU would like. Thank goodness for the European

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Union in the sense that at least there is some leveraged their given

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that Turkey wants to join. I think that's an important part of the

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dynamic even though we are talking decades away apparently. That will

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be an important lever and the UK out of the European Union will have no

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power. It is a really interesting example of what happens when or if

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you leave the European Union because they will be key players in trying

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to create a more stable Turkey. From what you were saying earlier, even

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though the coup seems to have been put down quite quickly by the

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Government, it is bound to generate even greater instability in Turkey

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and -- in an already unstable situation. We are coming on the fans

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any second but bomb attacks at airports and bomb attacks against

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the economic disruption caused by terrorism and know this. We don't

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want an unstable Turkey for any part of the world, for the Middle East or

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Asia or for Europe. We don't and that is why it is very interesting

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to see how the Turkish president will do. Will he become more

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authoritarian were the clamp-down on dissent? I think the temptation or

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the decision will probably be one that will be very quickly made. What

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is slightly strange to me is the fact that there were these rumours

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apparently not known by us but he might be Turkish president, was

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fearing this and has worst fears have come true. It is interesting

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that he had to be an face time. If the Internet, we see, if you are on

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the stem, that is the kiss of death. You cannot get to a studio. The

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first thing you do in broadcasting, you go to those two days and blow up

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the transmitters. That's how you organise a coup. That is how you

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take over. There were two planes shot down, helicopters. As we go on

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error, there are eight people claiming asylum in Greece and how

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Greece handled that will be very important as well. What you were

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boasting about the EU is key and the fact that the UK is going to be

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negotiating its divorce from that, lessons its voice in that possible

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solution. In France, after the Euro 2016

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football passed off successful and without any serious incidents,

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there was considerable relief and the prospect of some

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kind of relaxation of That lasted until Bastille Day

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and the use of a lorry Where is France and Europe

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and the rest of the world in dealing with those from Nice

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to Orlando who have murder on their minds and claim some kind

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of political motive? The reason I introduced Orlando

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there is from what we know of the perpetrator, he was a bit of a loser

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in society, on the margins and is now being claimed by Islamic State

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is that he was some kind of hero to do the kind of vastly thing that he

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did. This is what intelligence services around the world and not

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just in France are in the UK, this is a growing phenomenon and one that

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is impossible in an open democracy to prevent no matter how much money,

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solutions are investigations report that she do and there is a report

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finds that you might not very long ago that was recommending that

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France actually do what the US did when they realise the FBI wasn't

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talking enough to the CIA after the 911, that there had been warning

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signals and that didn't take up on them so that France needs to

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actually be collaborating and pooling its information, there is

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too much competition between the various parts of the intelligence

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services. Having said that, France, Britain, America, it Israelis and

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amongst the best in the intelligence of it is but you cannot do it in an

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open democracy or zero would you want to put the reasons of civilian

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liberties, the bounce me to strike, this was a soft target. The sea

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front of Meath was turned into a crime scene, a two kilometre crime

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scene, 84 dead, 200 injured among them are children. It is horrific

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and our society, unlike the 13th of November attacks, they needed

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rejects texts. That needed real planning outside and inside France

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whether it was from Belgium or forever it was from, what is not

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needed from a man who rented a lorry two or three days before, apparently

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a womaniser, was not a practising Muslim, he is going to be reclaimed

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by, as we have just witnessed, as IIS or Islamic State. It is inspired

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by them. It is all too familiar. The Orlando attack, Iman on the margins

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of society, the Brussels perpetrators as well. We have seen a

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lot of this and that makes it even more difficult for the intelligence

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services. What is worrying about this development is that as I says

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is losing ground in the Middle East, it may increase its targets and the

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west. It is even more worrying that this person seems to have had no

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direct links with organised terrorism because it showing the

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influence that Islamic State particularly over social media has

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the debate of the disenfranchised who maybe don't have formal with

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Islamic State but are using that as a justification or an ideology that

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they can cling to and justify their own acts. What is different about

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this attack from the November attacks in Paris and the attacks in

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Brussels is that it's not part of this European wide network. A

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Belgian French, very sophisticated terrorist network was behind this to

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attacks and then presidents were asked about how can terrorists and

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arms move freely between countries across do opinion and best debate

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will no doubt come up again. In terms of this specific incident, it

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seems it's more organised with that incident and that will give EU

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policymakers a breeding space in terms of this event. The thought

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that everybody in Britain has about this is that it could happen in here

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or Germany. Of course. It has happened here on a smaller scale. I

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am always asking senior officials at the Home Office, how come it is

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always France and not hear? There is one issue which is, touch wood, of

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some benefit to the UK which is that it is much harder to get the weapons

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over here. They are freely travelling around the rest of the

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EU. That is something has to be addressed but what cannot be

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addressed, as you were saying, is some individual loan are doing this

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and then I S claiming in effect credit. On that issue about Britain,

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it is interesting in the debate about Britain having decided to

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leave the EU, to reasoning is on record back in April saying that she

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believes British security will be better served by staying in the EU,

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she listed a number of their things, the passenger name records, that you

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are appalled. Ironically, Britain was already out of the bits it

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didn't want, it had a very good arrangement. It'll be interesting to

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see how the new PM responds to this when there will be inevitable claims

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that this may show you lack security in Europe when the very opposite is

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the case. If that hadn't been for true, I would be asking you about

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Turkey's experience of terrorism because that is also destabilising

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factor in Turkish society. In Ankara and Istanbul and other places, isn't

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it? What unifies France and Turkey is that both countries are very

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vocal against the Assad regime. France was never a supporter of the

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Assad regime. The word very vocal against the Assad regime and its

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ironic that the target is more about Isis than any other country. The

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only reason I can think of is that France has more in the Muslim

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population than any other European country and because of the colonial

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legacy both in Syria and also in northern Africa, you have a easily

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radicalised or could be radicalised Muslim population. Isis thinks they

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can create an anti-Islamic Daschle -- backlash in friends as I take

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easier than other countries. That is a worry that if I write in France,

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politics aside, there are some rumblings that people fear that far

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right groups can take something of the retaliation against people they

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don't like. There might be individual acts but the point is the

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elephant in the room is the French presidential elections next May and

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certainly we already know we have known for over 18 months if the

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polls are correct, they are dangerously accurate, Marriott Le

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Pen will get through the second round of the presidential election

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unlike her father. We know it is coming down the track. What we

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already witnessing unlike the aftermath and the fallout from the

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13th November Paris attacks, is the fact that there is not a political

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unity, it was supposed to end of the 26th of July, the afternoon on the

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14th of July Bastille Day, the French president and his traditional

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address or in the nation, he said it is going to stop, we cannot continue

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all the time, it's been renewed three times and the reason it was

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renewed up until now is the one month Euro 2016 which passed off

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successfully. No terror attacks. Then, if you hours later, this

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attack. The problem is now that there is a law helping to get the

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Government tools to be able to carry out raids quite easily to clamp

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down, to dismantle jihadists groups. The problem is, the civil liberties

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and how they blood citation also I think very much has begun to happen

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from the opposition are starting to really make some murmurings about

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what needs to be done and criticising the French Government

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and the French authorities. This is quite different to the aftermath of

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the first -- 13 of November and the presidential election coming up,

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Europe will be at the heart of it and Marion Le Pen has said that. She

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will be appealing and she will have a lot of residents with a growing

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number of people who feel insecure. France is at war with the so-called

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Islamic State, one with terrorism and it is here to stay. It is part

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of everyday life by Andy reality. Britain has a new prime minister

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and a reshaped government Plus, we also have Boris Johnson

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as our new Foreign Secretary, What do we make of the shape

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of the new British government What do you make the way to reason

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me, we should remind people, has got a majority of 12 which is very slim.

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That is the context of everything. Brexit will dominate the life of

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this new Government and a new Government. We didn't have a general

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election last week. It was a brutal cabinet reshuffle which she had

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clearly planned for some time because she carried out with great

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ruthlessness at speed. You are right, she will have to navigate the

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nightmarish past towards a Brexit and it's all complexity with a tiny

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majority being watched on an hourly basis by some of the Eurosceptic MPs

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who are currently euphoric about the way she has reshuffled her Cabinet

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and made clear that Brexit is Brexit. Any sign of distancing from

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that will cause mayhem. It is a really difficult position. She will

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have a honeymoon to die for over the summer. She hasn't got any effective

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political opposition at the moment. Bieber having another leadership

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contest. The wider context of deciding what form Brexit takes,

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getting it through the European Union, when the trigger article 51

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whole process begins, will be fraught with difficulty. And the way

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she structured her Government, there are in effect, at least four Cabinet

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ministers heavily involved in this, David Davis in charge of Brexit,

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Liam Fox in charge of negotiating trade, the Treasury inevitably in

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the form of the Chancellor and Theresa May herself who will take

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the lead. Managing those individuals all with different views so far, I

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haven't mentioned Boris Johnson... Andrea led some doing food. All with

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slightly different views as to what Brexit should take, it's going to

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make John major in the mid-90s that the guilty party. It was quite

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interesting this week watching the unfolding drama in Westminster.

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While the mood seemed to be quite a bit of fun and final Prime

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Minister's Questions, the mood in Russell 's was one of sober realism

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that this is no laughing matter. -- Brussels. The appointment of Theresa

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May has made Brexit a reality. I think a lot of people were quite

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amused by the whole tone of things and the sense that perhaps these

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appointments were motivated by domestic, political and partied

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little concerns rather than what is best for the country. It is apt to

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be the most challenging act of diplomacy over the last 50 years. By

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appointing up Boris Johnson, a divisive figure, that is fine,

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people do respect to some extent but what is the wisdom of putting

:19:51.:19:56.

somebody in who has already insulted a number of world leaders when you

:19:57.:20:01.

are trying to get the best deal from Britain for the EU? That is an

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interesting calculation. What do you make of it? He was booed at the

:20:08.:20:15.

French Embassy this week. At Bastille Day, yes, I witnessed it.

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It was Brits who were doing it, not the French. I would say it was

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roughly 15% of the guests there. Do you think it is a problem,

:20:27.:20:30.

particularly in the short-term? Perhaps any few months' time, you

:20:31.:20:34.

can see the strategy who is an intelligent man and will be very

:20:35.:20:36.

sober in the office and people will look at his past comments in a

:20:37.:20:41.

different light? From the domestic political side, for a moment, it is

:20:42.:20:47.

a huge opportunity for Boris, borrowers who was going to be a

:20:48.:20:51.

candidate for the top job of Tory leader, Boris who was going to be

:20:52.:20:55.

Prime Minister and that fell completely by the wayside and this

:20:56.:21:00.

seems to be a completely natural phenomenon in which is politics,

:21:01.:21:02.

when you are the favourite you don't get it. The fact is, he is going to

:21:03.:21:11.

be good sized everywhere he goes, here and abroad. He will have to

:21:12.:21:18.

tackle this all the time. He is very intelligent but the Beazer is going

:21:19.:21:21.

to want to really make sure she tries to control his message. He

:21:22.:21:29.

wrote a juvenile pawn which won a prize which said things about the

:21:30.:21:36.

Turkish president. -- poem. Does that matter? The Turkish President's

:21:37.:21:41.

office was asked about this and what they need of the appointment of

:21:42.:21:44.

Boris Johnson and the reply today saying the relationship with the UK

:21:45.:21:49.

goes beyond personalities and he used his first ever opportunity to

:21:50.:21:52.

mend relations with Turkey very quickly in the coup attempt. He came

:21:53.:21:58.

out talking and step. As journalists, we should be looking

:21:59.:22:06.

for it what he needs. It is one thing, civil servants and

:22:07.:22:07.

presidential officer say about their foreign policy, we might imagine a

:22:08.:22:12.

scene for the Turkish president was openly challenging... Years quite a

:22:13.:22:17.

strong character as well. We are almost running out of time. One way

:22:18.:22:22.

of looking at what Theresa May is doing, she may come to the

:22:23.:22:26.

conclusion that we are a very weak and divided opposition, she needs an

:22:27.:22:31.

electoral mandate and she should go to the country and that would give

:22:32.:22:36.

her more MPs and ease her problems. She might do. There will be a lot of

:22:37.:22:40.

speculation over the summer. She has gone on the record to say that she

:22:41.:22:45.

doesn't think an early election is necessary. That will not kill off

:22:46.:22:48.

the speculation as Gordon Brown discovered in 2007. When you are on

:22:49.:22:53.

a honeymoon. With a very small majority. Over the summer, she has

:22:54.:22:59.

just one chance in early November, after that, it becomes impossible in

:23:00.:23:02.

the winter and the rest of it. She will have to make a decision. She

:23:03.:23:08.

might just emphatically rule it out and kill all speculation that there

:23:09.:23:12.

must be a bit of her, she is quite cautious in spite of that ruthless

:23:13.:23:15.

reef travel, there must be a bit of attempted to say that with all that

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legislation she has to get through, to have a majority of 180 beats a

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majority of 12. It is going to lurk in the background. Not likely that

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possible. She's cautious until she isn't and then she is quite bold.

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She has been very bold in the past three days. I have met some of the

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victims of the last 40 errors and some of those who survived and the

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all walking around any complete shock days. There are questions

:23:44.:23:47.

about legitimacy that are already being asked despite the weakness and

:23:48.:23:51.

the crisis amongst the Labour opposition because we have this PM

:23:52.:23:57.

with a completely, no general election and a completely different

:23:58.:23:59.

top Government. There are questions being asked.

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That's it for Dateline London for this week.

:24:02.:24:03.

You can comment on the programme on Twitter @gavinesler and also

:24:04.:24:06.

We're back next week at the same time.

:24:07.:24:17.

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