10/09/2016 Dateline London

There is a new ceasfire called in Syria.

The UK Parliament went back to work, but have we learned anymore

about the plans to take Britain out of the EU?

And Donald Trump says Putin is a better president than Obama.

With me to discuss these issues are Janet Daley,

Jeffrey Kofman, the Canadian writer and broadcaster,

Abdel Bari Atwan, the writer on Arab affairs.

Russia and America have agreed a ceasfire for Syria.

Its supposed to come into force midnight Monday.

I hope so. First, Monday when the ceasefire should start, it is the

grand eat of Muslim. It is like a Muslim Christmas. They wanted to

give the Muslim world good news that a ceasefire would be there come a

halt bombing in Syria, human Terry and aid will go onto the besieged

people. -- humanitarian aid. They want to rule out the Muslim

organised inspiration -- organisations in Syria. Islamic

State, other radical organisations. After that, there should be a

resumption of the peace talk to find a political resolution. Is it

sustainable? Is it going to work? Is it going to continue? We have had a

lot of ceasefires before that haven't worked. It is five years of

conflict, five years of farming, 600,000 people were massacred or

killed. Millions are homeless or arm migrants around the country. This

time it could work. At least partly if not fully. It could work because

they define the priority hair which is to root out the radical

organisations. -- priority here. Muslim state of the immediate

threat. By removing this obstacle, maybe BP stores could be fruitful

this time. A lot of optimism and the West having to turn to Russia now is

a partner. Is that going to work? Syria belongs to Vladimir Putin and

Assad is his man. As soon as Barack Obama pulls back from his red lines

in Syria, he handed over to Putin. It is entirely in his interest now.

Barack Obama is desperate to get something that looks like a

successful ceasefire before he leaves office because he wants that

to be part of his legacy and he doesn't want chaos in Syria to be

his foreign policy legacy. Now we are completely at the mercy of Assad

who is a war criminal and Putin who is controlling him. Whether this

ceasefire works, whatever that means, whether it is sustained her

anything longer than 48 hours is entirely to do with the politics of

Putin's leadership and Obama's willingness to go along with those

priorities. Policing I -- policing a ceasefire and who is having a

cessation is going to be difficult. It is so fragile and difficult to

sustain. Everyone wants it to happen but this is really a chess game by

Russia. They are taking the upper hand. There are so many reasons why

this could fail and so much of it now sits with the Russians. The

opposition groups, who controlled them and how do you make them

behave? How do you define where transgression is? What do you do

about the tens of thousands of people who are in prison? That

hasn't been mentioned. There are so many variables that have not been

addressed which is inevitable because of the complexity. We have

to hope it works. Turkey today saying they are welcoming mess and

will sending humanitarian aid. Turkey has its own interest in this.

Imagine when it is a completely different story if we have Hillary

Clinton or Donald Trump. That is a new ball game. Also, the crux of the

matter is what you were talking about. We have people both in Moscow

and Washington, Berlin, Paris and London drawing Macs as we speak.

Trying to make sense of what is going on on the ground. -- drawing

maps. There are dozens of people who change loyalty. There are some

position fighters that Russia continued to support who now side

with terrorists. This is so complicated. How do you make sense

of this? I have some hope, however dim it is, because Russia and the

US, deep mistrust between them. They back opposite sides but have one

mutual interest. That is to defeat IAS. -- IS. Boris Johnson has issued

a statement today and he says that Russia must use all of its influence

to ensure the Syrian government complies with its obligations and

they will be judged by their actions. Is President Putin going to

listen to that? I think he will listen. Russia has said the Syrian

President, the Syrian government agreed on this ceasefire. Also there

is another thing that is important and that is Turkey. They supported

the agreement and Turkey is an inflammation -- influential player

on the Syrian scene. Russia have the upper hand because the Russian

people are on the ground. They have sampled an intervention which

changed the whole map in Syria. I believe this time, when John Kerry

listen to them come he agreed with them after 12 hours of talks. It was

a marathon of talks. Now I don't believe... The problem is, Russia

can control Assad but whether the Americans can control the fractions.

They are financing best. One of the reasons we can be optimistic is

Russia has been painted as a pariah state. Russia still has sanctions

against it from the West because of its invasion of Crimea. If Russia

can broker with the US a peace deal in Syria, it gives stature on the

US. What about his relationship with President Assad? Assad will do what

President Putin once. He wants to have something that looks plausible

as part of Obama's legacy. They will call it a successful ceasefire

agreement whatever it is. What is the alternative? To continue the

bombing? Innocent people are massacred and killed. There is some

hope you. I hope we can keep it. This is all for show and about the

internal politics of the countries. Because before world into thinking

this is somehow going to be the answer to everything in Syria. It is

five years of conflict and that is light at the end of the table. At

least people are talking. Nobody disagrees with that. There is some

hope here. Nobody will disagree with anything you have said. Genet

touched on it earlier. Obama's legacy com his foreign policy

failures at the top of the list will be Syria. In August 2012 when he

drew that red line and said if chemical weapons are used by Assad,

we will bomb and intervene. A year later, 1400 people die and nothing

happens. That is when the game changed. Suppose Obama intervenes,

what will happen? It would be a third World War because the Russians

would not tolerate any kind of American intervention. Look what

happened in Iraq. If you stand up to an aggressive imperial power, they

do tend to back down. The thing that you do that eggs them on is to give

in and concede and when Obama made that gesture about Syria, Putin

bought the world is my oyster. That region belongs to me. That was

irreparable. We will move on because when we come back on another week,

we will see the outcome from it and what has happened and stop let's

hope that optimism holds fire. Parliament returned

to Westminster this week. What does Brexit mean and what's

the deal with Europe Janet, are we any wiser,

did the Prime Minister Mrs May make There is massive confusion because

everyone wants to keep that cards close to their chest. It is

important to remember that there is confusion and conflict on the

European side of these negotiations. There is a really serious tug-of-war

going on between the commission in Brussels and the National heads of

state. Two of whom are in serious political difficulties and are

coming up the election. They are not going to let Brussels and the

commission run away with this with their aggressive anti-Brexit stand.

Some kind of agreement is going to have to be reached that sidelines

the commission and Brussels which is aggressive and hostile towards

Britain. There is as much massive difficulty and confusion about the

outcome of these negotiations on the other side of the table as there is

on ours. From Europe, the confusion comes entirely from Britain. You

don't understand what we are doing? They have to trigger article 50. It

will happen at the beginning of next year. This week we have David Davis

saying at the dispatch box that it would be nice to be part of the

single market but if it means agreeing to freedom of movement,

this is not going to happen. Downing Street has to say, "This is a

private view will stop" we have a government minister saying this at

the dispatch box. I accept that but these are petty indiscretions

compared to the disagreements between Angela Merkel and the

commission about how Brexit should be dealt. Those are serious

substances of difficulty. There was relief when Theresa May became Prime

Minister. As opposed to Boris Johnson? According to Cameron's

agenda, this was supposed to be resolved this week. Early September

Britain was supposed to get a Prime Minister. Theresa May came in with

stability and sobriety and people breathed a sigh of relief and said

of the candidates, this is the most sensible. We saw the pound plunge.

It has recovered a bit but it is still down significantly. What we

are seeing this week is a warning sign that there is much more

uncertainty to come, that Theresa May did a good job of keeping things

below the boiling point but you say the line about Brexit is Brexit.

Brexit means Brexit. What does it mean? They are spending vast amounts

trying to figure this out. We suggest it is going to have a lot of

fight ahead and more instability. While I agree their raw problems in

Europe, I think the real problem is going to be here, building a

consensus and imposing it. Even within her party, this issue of

mobility is so essential to the British economy, the access of the

city and Finance to Europe... When we look at the British, they are

very clever. I believe, OK, they kept their class -- cards close to

their chests, but they don't have a plan. They have a plan, they do.

They are waiting to see where their interest is. What is the plan? Two

years' time, they will come up with an idea where they want another

referendum. To be honest, definitely this dragging on and on, it means

Britain would like to stay... We want our cake and wanting to eat it.

We haven't triggered article 50 yet. Why not? What are you waiting for?

Nobody expected the vote to go this way. The referendum was supposed to

be a matter of course. David Cameron, nobody planned for this.

Nobody anticipated it. It was a bad political move all round and nobody

had a clear idea of what the objectives were for this if we voted

to leave. They were astounded by the popular majority in favour of

leads-macro. Now they are having to examine the possibilities for Brexit

that's why the vote went in the way it did and what it will take to

accommodate the clear wish of the electorate. How you sustain a

prosperous British economy while accommodating those conflicting

aspirations. It is an impossible task and with all due respect, there

is no plan. The only plan is to see what they can come up with. It is in

Europe's interests as well. The Europe economy is in more jeopardy.

When you think, OK, we have had three months. They went on holiday

presumably and they have come back fresh. There is 100 and 80 staff --

180 staff. What are they doing? They are researching legally. It is

called governing. Do you think Boris Johnson is capable of negotiating?

Liam Fox, for example. The Foreign Minister met him at length. He said

to me that this man is learning the basics. That is not true. I have

known Liam Fox the many years and he has a very strong transatlantic

connection. That was his chief calling card. We are not a priority.

This business about AQ and negotiations, T tip has been dead in

the water. There isn't any queue any more. We are talking about America

here. I will flip the topics are little bit because the polls are

neck and neck. The speeches from Hilary Clinton

and Donald Trump more Still two months to go before

the November eighth poll. Jeffry you have just returned

from the Americas Counting the days till it ends. What

we are seeing is Trump's failure at the Republican convention. Hillary

Clinton had a ten point lead. You can sustain that over three, four

months. His attacks on her integrity do stick. You saw the polls tighten

and the latest one that came out yesterday showed she is back up to a

four point margin. The complex American system, the National polls

don't matter. The electoral College is what matters. She needs 270

electoral votes. There are dozens of ways for her to get that. She seems

to have a secure path. Trump has one or two. We will see a slim Donald

Trump victory which is unlikely to be other extreme of Hillary Clinton

landslide. There is indication barring some unknown that you have

to be cautious 59 days out that she will win still. What do you think,

Agnes? The polls as we get closer should become more rapid. She should

be far ahead. It is always, "Oh, yes, but she is unpopular. " There

is no problem with Hillary. It would be a third time that the Democrats

which is always difficult. She is part of a dynasty and she would come

after her husband but she would make a great President. Look at the

alternative. After Brexit, I thought Donald Trump is going to be

President. I hope the nightmare is going to end. Trump approves of

Putin more than he approves of Obama and 84% approval rating. He doesn't

know what happens to people who disapprove of Putin. The degree of

ignorance is absolutely terrifying and it is true that Hillary should

be doing a lot better. Unfortunately, she has a lot of

baggage and people regard her as dodgy and it is unfortunate that it

wasn't somebody more... Perhaps it would have been no less popular

figure but somebody like Joe Biden who is running against Donald Trump.

There would be the three presidential debates and that is

Donald Trump's last chance. If you look at his style and his inability

to study the issues. Hillary Clinton knows her stuff and knows foreign

policy better than anybody on the planet and knows a deep

understanding of domestic policy. If she doesn't misstep and if the

moderators of these debates hold Trump to account, the instance, the

guy from NBC letting Donald Trump getting away with these lies, if

they do a better job than him, this is Hillary's. These will be

compelling television moments. Donald Trump goes off on a wandering

around the issue. They are out and out lies. He said he didn't support

the Iraq war. That is not what he said to Howard Stern at the time.

Later he recounted. He said this week, "No, I never supported it."

Maybe he is a clown. Maybe he is a warmonger. Why this hatred towards

his statement that Putin is doing better? Maybe it is good for us.

Maybe if there is some understanding between the American President and

the Russian President. This could be a recipe for peace. It is not as

sophisticated as that. He is not saying Putin is a dangerous man but

we can find ways of dealing with him. He is saying, "I have my him

because he is the better Mafia boss, the more successful boss of his

country." He is doing that by crushing human rights, crushing free

media. Is that what you want and would it be advisable? Presidents

invaded Iraq and killed millions of people. Let us be frank. Putin, I am

not defending him but he revived Russia as a super fire --

superpower. Now he has the upper hand in the Middle East and Ukraine.

That is because of the weakness of Western leadership. He is a good

President for his own people. What is wrong with that? If I disagree

with them, they are exiled or out of a job. Russia has gained and Putin

has gained the position he has three Western weakness. That was the fault

of the Obama administration. Would Donald Trump be stronger? Hillary

would be. What Trump is admiring in Putin is his iron fist. Nothing that

those of us in the West to look on with affection. It proves that Putin

is very clever as a lot of ex-KGB agents and he knows how to identify

the weakness in the enemy. Donald Trump completely fell for it showing

his great stupidity. You have a potential American President

unwilling agent of Russia. This is not possible. He is saying the

truth. The first time, he is not lying. The first time, Trump is not

lying saying Putin is doing very well, he is a strong leader. At what

cost? Is that the cost that America is going to pay to revive a country

which is not sagging? We need superpowers and balance in the top

of the world. When the Americans got the upper hand, what happens? The

United States should become a totalitarian country? That is what

you were saying. There is elections in Russia. Putin was elected.

We will continue. Thank you very much.

That's all we have time for this week.

We will be back next week same time same place.

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