03/09/2016 Dateline London

Hello and welcome to Dateline London in a week where Donald Trump went

to Mexico, the British Government met to clarify what's next on Brexit

and more harrowing pictures of thousands of desperate

With me is Steve Richards from The Independent, Analisa Piras -

an Italian writer and film maker, the Sudanese writer Nisreen Malik,

So, Donald Trump has been visiting Mexico, a surprise to some,

considering some of his more outspoken comments

So, how did it all go down? McGregor, you have just come back.

Give us a sense of the drum machine in America now. I think there is no

Trump machine. It is a very seat of the plan of campaign that he is

running. Extremely unorthodox, without much organisational support

from the Republican Party or the Republican National committee. Sort

of doing it on his own, to a degree from Trump Tour and improvising. I

think this makes a good trip was a last-minute improvisation and he

followed it up with a serious immigration speech, where he

reiterated his earlier proposals to build a gigantic wall separating the

two countries. I do not think there is a Trump machine. I think the

campaign is sputtering about but he is still within striking distance of

Hillary Clinton and the debates are still ahead of us. I think it is

still up for grabs but Hillary is doing better at the moment. Given

what he has said about Mexico up until this point, are you surprised

that he went and what he said when he got there? Well, I cannot

understand his strategy was big for him explain it. I was surprised that

he went. He got a tonne of attention, he likes attention. But

what was odd was that he sounded very conciliatory towards Mexico and

Mexicans when he was there and then he flew across the border and made a

very harsh speech in which he was promising to keep Mexicans out. So

there is not a real coherent strategy that you can see.

Everything he does is surprising and unorthodox, and the idea of building

a wall is still his signature proposal and he is still behind at

100%. You have also just come back from the United States. What do you

make of it? One thing that was really interesting that I noticed

when I was there is that we, I think, across the pond, have this

view that Donald Trump has a support because he says controversial things

and says the things that people don't feel like they can say. But I

think it is something a little more subtle than that, which is I think

they just feel like he talks like they talk. Like, you're sitting

around a table. And there is a deep suspicion and, sorcerer, intolerance

of the polished, calculated politicians speak. -- and

intolerance. I heard a very large group of people just to say that he

just sounds like my dad, or just sounds like, you know, my grumpy

uncle from down the road. Do you want bad for president? I don't

think people think in that linear way, and that is not patronising. It

is similar to a lot of people voted for breakfast. They know what they

like but they do not necessarily thinking what that will result in,

in terms of foreign policy or a domestic economic anything. We are

Trump has been very effective in a way that cannot be dismissed if not

in the sort of working-class people have concerns or a white people have

concerns that Trump is reflecting, it is in the direct, straight in the

veins way he has been communicating. Which is something I think other

politicians should pause and think about. Steve, he went to Mexico,

said one thing and came back and said another and also claimed that

they are going to pay to build the wall. Well, he says a lot of things

that are contradictory. And that was a very revealing sequence, then

something quite diplomatic in Mexico and then going for them again when

he got safely back into the United States. But none of this matters,

because of what we have already been discussing. There is a new art form

in politics, which is people who are actually as detached from ordinary

voters as any other politician has discovered a way of making them feel

they are connected to them. We have them in this country, Nigel Farage,

Boris Johnson, they are actually kind of freakishly unusual lives

that the lease but when voters hear them, they think they can relate to

those people. And that is the Trump magic. It is not what he says, but

how he says. Even though he is a multimillionaire celebrity, and has

been for decades, voters feel that in some way he connects with them

and speaks with them, from voters. Whether it is enough, who knows? I

would not be surprised, and I am not surprised by anything in politics at

the moment. But it is a relatively new art form, this. People who are

actually part of an elite appearing as if they are not. Are we seeing

this in Europe, Annalisa? Yes, I must say that is not exactly new as

an artform because I must claim that Italy invented it 20 years ago when

we give the world Silvio Berlusconi. That somehow played exactly this

kind of lines that do not really matter in the content, but the

matter in the way people receive them. In other words, it is not what

he says, it is what people here. What people here, this is an

authentic man coming is not a professional politician, it is a guy

like me. He has been successful in his life, he has become a

billionaire, he will make me rich too. This is exactly what Berlusconi

brought to Italy, and I am afraid that the one thing that I see

happening again today is that people underestimate the power of this kind

of politics. The only antidote, at least in Italy, has been

information. Trying to make him accountable for what he says,

because when he starts not delivering what he promises, after a

while people understand. But then there must be an accountability

machine in place. And in America and other countries, we do not see that

happening. It could be too late by that point as well, could it not? I

just want to ask you all the big question. The latest polls are

showing that both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are neck and neck.

Do you think Trump and when? I think he could, because things are

happening around democratic world. That would be very odd, but it is

possible. In the current, fought off, volcanic climate in which we

are living. I think it remains unlikely, partly because he cannot

even work on the assumption he is going to get some of the Republican

vote that normally would go to the Republican candidate. So, I work on

the assumption Hillary Clinton will win, but she is part of that

earlier... You're right about Italy, but the United States has usually

gone, especially if it is a Democrat, someone or every word is

controlled and it looks contrived, and that no longer applies. She has

had to loosen up a bit. She is going to have to loosen up a bit more, I

think, in this new world we are in. But I assume he is going to lose,

but everything is possible at the moment. I think you made when. And

how feel about that? Well, it is going to be a disaster for America

and a disaster for the world, so I think we need to fasten your seat

belts because, if Trump wins, we are going to have a very turbulent world

to live in. And those who have just recently returned and have perhaps a

sense of flavour. I think it is highly unlikely that he will win.

The polls were you see Hillary and Donald Trump neck and neck are those

that are among the undecideds, and so I think that also there is a

certain tendency amongst posters to try to make a story out of the

polls. Nobody wants to show you a 90%, 10% poll, that is not the

story. And we know what happens, sometimes they are completely wrong.

Yes and I think there has been an industry of Paul stranded in the

neck and neck, but you look at the sample size and the fact that the

undecideds and I think the polls are not necessarily accurate. It is

highly unlikely that he will win. However, if it does not when it does

not mean that Trump, the conglomerate of problems and ideas

that created Trump has gone away. And I think it would be a mistake to

think this was some sort of aberration, nightmare before the

election and then everything is back to normal with her back in the

driving seat. It is going to have quite serious, toxic repercussions.

I think the polls, state by state, shall Hillary with a substantial

lead. But there is no question and whatsoever that Trump Goodwin and he

answered simply as the debates. It is going to be one-on-one. If she

makes one misstep and comes across the runway in front of a huge

audience, something that could be replayed endlessly, she could lose

the whole thing right there and then. So, it could put it on that?

Oh, absolutely. All Trump needs of the bus and he could whether to

believe she is significantly ahead at the moment. There will be plenty

more in the next few weeks. It's been a busy week

as politicians in the UK return The Labour Party is still

in the throes of a leader election and the British cabinet met

to consolidate thoughts on Brexit with the Prime Minster Thereas May

restating the Brexit means Brexit. Steve, what are your thoughts? That

certainly doesn't clarify anything, that statement she keeps on using

dash breaks it means breakfast, it means nothing at all. We are, I

think, in the sense that it looks as if they are going to play the

British Cabinet... The British Cabinet are going to play pretty

horrible negotiation. They are going to aim the utopia, where they are

going to say we must have constraints on freedom of movement,

that is absolutely, I think it has been described as a red line. But we

have the Chancellor of the Exchequer still making clear that the British

economy wants access to the single market. Others are saying that to

happen anyway, because trade is of mutual interest. But it will not

because the rest of the European Union will not allow free access to

the single market, and suddenly you can have a completely different

arrangement when it comes to free movement of labour. So what we know

is they are going to aim, the British government, hi. What we do

not know is how the rest of the European Union will respond. And

when we do, I think the British government will be in for one of its

many, many shocks to come. Anna Lisa smiling and shaking your head! Yes,

I mean, Britain needs to start understanding a little bit better

the situation and have more realistic expectations. Without

exaggerating, at the moment what Britain seems to expect as the same

thing that a husband would tell to his wife. Look, I want to stay

married but I want to be single. Right? Or do we have a deal? No,

actually, we do not have a deal! That is what the European Union is

then. If you want to stay on the single market, you will have to have

freedom of movement. The two are not, you cannot separate them. At

the moment, it seems that the British voters voted for breakfast,

they were given a promise of something that is not on the table.

And that is not going to change? There is not a chance that this is

going to change. So, someone will start explaining to people that that

deal is not on the table. How long there is a lack of clarity and this

kind of hypocrisy going on, we do not know. I mean, it is an

hypocrisy, it is a game that is not true, what is happening at the

moment. Greg, I wanted to bring you endure. People outside of the UK

looking at this, particularly Europeans, now that we want our cake

and we want to eat it at the same time. How do you think it is viewed

wider than that? Every place I went, every person I interacted with in

the US, I was just there for quite a while, when they ask me about

Britain the first thing on the mind was what in the world is going on

there? It is not just the breakfast of which shocked them, it was the

subsequent meltdown of the camera government and the Jeremy Corbyn

position. -- it was not just bricks at which shocked them. People are

baffled as to what the British want, because they do not understand the

economic argument behind it and they are saying economic is paramount, so

there is a lot of confusion in the world as to what this means. People

really do not get it, I think. And certainly we are two months into it

now, and there seems to be no clarity. It is baffling to the

world. Is it damaging as well? Not so much as people are curious. The

damage was done in the first 24 hours to the pound and we are seeing

commercial real estate are doing poorly and firms not hiring. There

is a lot of damage being done, but Britain's position in the world, I

think, people are just flat out confused. They want to see some

change, something positive coming out of it. I think there is some

confusion. There is also not an insignificant amount of derision.

People are slightly laughing at the UK as well, because the scale of the

blunder is actually very clear to see. There has not been a

commanding, authoritative figure that has shepherded the whole

regular campaign. And I think that even though internally we, the

British, might like to think that this has all been a wonderfully

pristine exercise in democracy, it's kind of looks like a bit of a

shambles on the outside. It has not been helped by the fact that we now

have these war rooms, these war cabinets, about what breakfast is,

how we are going to do it, what is on the table. And then you have

debates about whether we should have a second referendum, and then you

have demonstrations planned to have a cigarette -- second referendum,

and you think it does not look like anybody knows what they are doing. A

final word, Stephen, do you think it will happen? I think she... Someone

used the phrase linear about somebody else. Was it about Hillary,

I cannot remember? She is quite a linear politician. She is not

devious. So she feels it is our responsibility to deliver that

referendum result, even though she was a subdued remain supportive. So

I think she will. I think she will trigger, and have to, because of her

party anyway. So she will trickle Article 50 and we will be off. All I

would say is that there are lots of other factors floating around which

means it is not impossible that, in the end, we stay in. The majority of

the House of Commons is to remain, the huge majority of the House of

Lords, the First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon is

threatening to hold a second referendum. There are all other

factors floating around. But I have got no doubt that she, Theresa May,

regarded as a duty to deliver the outfought. OK, let's move on to

final topic today. It's a year since that picture

of the body of three-year-old Syrian refugee Alan Kurdi washed up

on a Turkish beach shocked the world His father says nothing has

changed since then. This week, over 10,000 refugees

left Libya in boats. So, what is happening and what is

maybe not been done to prevent it? Italy bearing the brunt. Indeed.

Italy is bearing the brunt, the situation is deteriorating by the

day in Italy, because Italy has been left pretty much alone, and there

has been a substantial contribution from the European Union to help with

the hotspot, the centres for refugees, as it is not a task that a

country can be left to deal with alone. 13,000 refugees only this,

from Libya. The situation in Libya is deteriorating, with the Civil War

getting worse with the fight between hundreds of different militias. Isis

is keeping towards the south. The countries are in complete meltdown,

we're starting to see climate change refugees, people that are leaving

deserted places that are getting worse and worse because of climate

change. So, the situation is absolutely tragic. It is horrendous.

It is a tragedy that has no precedent in human history. And yet,

we are witnessing a sort of conspiracy of silence. We have not

been talking about it in Europe now for months. Like, if the problem had

gone away. The problem has not gone away and there is only one solution,

an international coalition to put in place means for a holistic kind of,

consistent package that would help those countries cope with the crisis

and the countries on the front line, Italy, Greece, to get more support

from other countries. Politically, on one side, popular and on the

other side with politicians not that popular. We just have to look at the

example of Angela Merkel. To be honest, the evidence suggests it is

not popular and that is why there has been this terrible silence. It

was very interesting when Angela Merkel made her admirable early

attempts to allow Syrian regime into Germany. Lots of leaders from other

countries in Northern European countries initially were going to

support her, some of the social Democrats, and then read all of the

poll think that this was not popular, in spite of the emotional

response to that terrible photo that you mentioned. And people are not

doing anything about it. It is actually, when people said in the

referendum campaign in the UK that this crisis helped the outside, I

could not see this again. This is the biggest argument for a European

army, union, because it needs international coordination. You

cannot just leave one country to take it on. -- for a European Union.

Angela Merkel could not do it on your own leader, the most powerful

figure in Europe. So I think it is an advert for a strong, robust

European Union coordinating a response. But we are long way from

that, because of the political obstacles. It is almost like nobody

wanted to. I disagree with both. With Anneliese it is utopian, or

perhaps too idealistic, to expect a coordinated global response at a

time when you see a major US presidential candidate talking about

building was, you see... I disagree with you, Steve, I think the broker

told was influenced greatly by the immigration crisis. I think that was

probably the key thing in the last 12 months that convinced British

voters to go that way. I do not see... The Syrian thing is

different. The two were concluded, but immigration and asylum seeking

are different. To read. There is an attitude of protectionism,

xenophobia and we wanted to project what is ours that is rising in a lot

of countries, so I do not see a coordinated response coming forward

out of this mess. I agree with your analysis, that this is unprecedented

in terms of numbers on school. Well, they will have to be. Because the

United Nations said there will be 80 million people moving from the

poorest areas of the world towards the West. What are you going to do?

We are talking about 2.2 million people per year. Are we going to

shut our eyes and let them down in the sea? I mean, on the 19th of

September, there is going to be, I think, it is the first United

Nations migration summit, and president Obama has called the Day

after for a global leaders summit, to discuss this. I mean, this is

probably the biggest challenge that humanity has ever faced. Really

going to just look at our borders and shut them down? I think he is,

is the answer, probably. That is what is going to happen. I think if

you look at me most coordinated reaction on the part of the EU over

the past while over the migration issue has been in the wrong

direction. Instead of people coming together to try to coordinate the

flaws of immigration coming into the EU, the EU has put together a

package of about 150 million euros to give to African countries to make

sure that the police internal flaws of emigration, before they get to

countries like Libya that allow them to then cross the ocean. And so

there has been a very effective scramble to manage the immigration

issue, but it has been to outsource it to as many people as possible in

North and East Africa. What you have them, that is kind of the jugular of

the immigration crisis. If you look at where immigrants go through, and

that is from places like Eritrea, Somalia, chart, Libya, even Nigeria,

and to a large extent Syria, Michael Dugher East Africa and North Africa

and then go to Libya and Brazilian kind of go up Turkey. And there are

literally open-air prison camps in these countries, that are financed

by the European Union, to ensure that these migrants do not make

their way to Europe. How they are treated in terms of human rights,

how they are treated in terms of health care is not their concern.

And in terms of numbers, do we know? In terms of numbers, in terms of

people just being nabbed randomly, between 1000 and 10,000 at a core at

being arrested. There is a large open camp refugee prison in Kenya

that we are looking at maybe 250,000 people. And then you have camps

Libya, which is up to a quarter of a million. In Lebanon, in Jordan. And

so these are... Yes, but his student represent them as they are mean

nasty attempt by the European Union... It is not a nasty attempt,

it is what it is. Steve is it better to stop somebody in a beach or in

the middle of the sea? The Russian allies are -- are helping to

rationalise the migrant flow in Africa rather than in when they're

coming to Europe. People die in the sea. I am not think they are doing

it in an aggressive, malicious fashion, but it is an indication of

when Europeans to get together, they get together on these premises,

rather than on the premise of helping those that have already

arrived. That is not entirely true. For instance, in Jordan the European

Union has helped the government to create jobs for Assyrians who were

escaping from Syria, and to stay there in Jordan, where they can go

back when the war is over. There is that as well, but... You yourself

mentioned that there is, of course there is, and of course there is

different initiatives. It is not a completely uniform picture

throughout. But in terms of the vast majority of numbers, of people that

have arrived in the EU, people who are languishing in open-air camps,

people who have been stopped, borders have come down, agreements

have been done with Turkey to sure that people from Turkey did not flow

into the European Union. That is also the great majority of policy. I

want to bring Greg back in. Annalisa mentioned Obama's migrants later in

the month, are you optimistic that will achieve something and should

this initiative baby have come sooner? No, I am not optimistic.

Unfortunately, I see these summit meetings as well-intentioned but

very repetitive and accomplished very little. I think Obama's

intentions are good, but the US should have taken a lead role

perhaps 18 months ago, or 24 months ago. I think we are seeing a massive

failure of political will across the West, and unfortunately I think the

politics are going another direction. We're going to the

elections in Germany and France that will be shaped by this to a degree.

I do not see anything positive coming from this, and Obama is on

his way out. He is a lame duck at this point. We have a few seconds

left. Are you optimistic about this? I am, because we are reaching a

point in which we cannot really keep looking away. So, it is true that

short-term politics dictate the fact that people are trying to be

indifferent to this, but at the same time there is a growing awareness

worldwide that unless we get all together and try to tackle this, our

entire generation will be responsible for something that looks

like a genocide. Thank you very much to all of my guests today. It has

been good talking to you. Very good session. That is it for us this

week. We will be back next week at the same time. You

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