27/08/2016 Dateline London


27/08/2016

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President Erdogan of Turkey has certainly bounced back

:00:22.:00:26.

This week he appeared to have the United States

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After a Turkish incursion into Syria denied the group that calls itself

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Islamic State its only border crossing, the US

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obligingly instructed Kurds to get out of the way if they wanted

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to carry on receiving American support.

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Mr Erdogan is not the only populist politician basking

:00:44.:00:45.

Nigel Farage, one of the prominent voices in the successful

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campaign to get Britain out of the European Union, appeared

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at a rally with Donald Trump, telling his supporters

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Even as in Syria some women were celebrating liberation

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from Islamic State by taking off their burkhas, those wearing

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them on the beaches of France were being ordered to take them off.

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To discuss all that with me this week are Arab affairs

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writer Abdel Bari Atwan, Eunice Goes, the Portuguese academic

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and journalist, Alex Deane, a British Conservative commentator,

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and Michael Goldfarb from Politico Europe.

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Welcome to all of you. Has a deal being done in Syria? There is a

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secret deal done by the two superpowers, US and Russia. The

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meeting in Geneva between Sergei Lavrov the Russian Foreign Minister

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and his American counterpart John Kerry, it seems they also reach an

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agreement about a ceasefire now. There are four questions, important

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ones. The first, what will happen to Isis? They are losing in Syria now.

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It could also lose Mose all and Raqqa. What will happen to the

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territory that they used to control? Who will be the sovereign that? Will

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it go back to the Syrian regime, or other forces? The other question

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which is also important, what will happen to the Syrian president

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himself? These are the most important questions here. I believe

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personally, the major problem is what will happen to the coalition

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after they managed to defeat Isis? If they manage to defeat Isis?

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Alligator stay together or will they fight each other? For example the

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Turks and the Kurds. The hatred towards Isis unifies everyone, but

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the biggest questions is Syria going to be stable after that? Will it be

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United Kim are Russian and American is going to continue working

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together or will they crush? Can you put the genie back into the bottle?

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I don't think so. It has been very clear in the American goal over the

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last 24 months has been Isis. They walked away from the red Line

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concerning Assad, they are focused on Isis. If they can bring Russia

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along, some chain of command so that the Turkish government to whom it

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has its own tensions at the moment, will innocence following American

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and Russian lead in confronting Isis, that is important. Then you

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have the problem of what you do with Assad, clearly you cannot stay in

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power. The country has been destroyed. Thrush clearly he cannot.

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There are so many subplots and when I say that, they are minor subplots

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but when the -- what the Turks and Kurds ultimately do is important. In

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Baghdad, they were going crazy, you have invaded a sovereign country.

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You can't come over. You have to control Erdogan. Can you control the

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Kurdish leadership? These are all questions to come but at the moment

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people are focused on eliminated eliminating Isis and that is

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important. Do you think Erdogan is focused on this? He seems to be set

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on his own agenda, asserting Turkish power in the region. Wanting to

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scare away the Kurdish forces in Syria. This latest incursion in

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Syria, this was not about destroying Isis, or Daesh, it was about making

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sure the Kurdish forces do not get above themselves. I'm not so sure,

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it would be good to think of the deal, the future deal of peace in

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Syria. It has been such a horrendous conflict with terrible impact on

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civilian life. There are so many players, foreign players, all of

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them with a different agenda. How will they agree on the future head?

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It is easier to keep on fighting, unfortunately. When one looks at the

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US backed Kurdish group in Syria, they were told by Joe Biden, moved

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back always stop supporting you. But it is hard to see them saying we'll

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go back to how things were once Isis are defeated. They did not listen to

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him, they defeated Isis, and said we are here to stay. The Kurds will be

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the next problem for the region powers after Isis. I don't believe

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Isis will disappear completely. They will go underground. If they go

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underground, this is the best thing that can happen. They are not

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responsible for 9 million people to supply them with electricity,

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education, health. If they get rid of ices, over the ground, they will

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go underground. -- Isis. The Americans promised to give the Kurds

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a state, and... A big promise. This will upset Turkey, Syria, Iran,

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Russia. Syria will be here and hopefully we will be talking about

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it for another hundred years. Western fighters have been referring

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to a town as Little London. Many British children, one gathers, I

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being reared in the ISI tradition in that town. I think you're right, the

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long-term is unclear. In the short to medium term it is obvious the big

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winner is Erdogan. He has solidified his position, overcome a coup,

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becomes stronger, things he gave away with things he was couple with

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anyway, like the airport, and he promised a time bomb to the Kurds

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himself having had that ability and it seems to me that the things he

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has given up in Europe, statements towards migration control, in return

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he gets these free migration for millions of Turks, brilliantly

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negotiated. Far better than Brexit negotiations! I think Assad is

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definitely going to have more time on his hands. I am fascinated to

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hear that a deal has been done. Where would he go? That is the

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question, many people in the Middle East, where I met in Beirut when I

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was there. They believed that there is some sort of understanding,

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Russian and American understanding about the future of Assad. Where

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would you go? Must go, to run? -- Moscow, Teheran. It could be

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somebody from the Army, we don't know, yet. Whoever comes in, it is

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an amazing achievement from Kerry. They managed to get past that

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situation with Russia saying Assad has to stay. If Kerry managed to

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turn them around from that point of view, that could be his greatest

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legacy. Donald Trump received

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some international aid Nigel Farage, who was instrumental

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in the campaign to get Britain out of the European Union joined

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Mr Trump in Mississippi, where he suggested the two were soul

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mates, battling the establishment. It is a strange one, because Nigel

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Farage is in a sense, you could argue, contributed to victory in the

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Brexit campaign but lost his own personal battles. Donald Trump is

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struggling to sustain his campaign, adapting his message, yet here they

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were with the antiestablishment message reinforcing each other. The

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idea is you sit outside the mainstream and in their words clean

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up Washington, that is the position you want to have to realise a

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lecture or success. That has a long standing tradition in American

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politics. Trump goes a couple of stages beyond the Reagan positioning

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in ostentation sleigh being beyond the outside, saying things to elicit

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response. He is not a small state, liberal, free marketeer. Many values

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he has are off the left, I think. The Nigel Farage point is

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interesting, he took a party way outside the political mainstream in

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the UK from 14 European elections, all the way to first, if you want to

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associate yourself with an anti-mainstream populist winner, he

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is probably the most acceptable force. The funny thing is, they

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chose to meet in Mississippi and that is a place that tries to leave

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the union in 1861. -- tried. And it didn't quite work out. In fact, in

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the insulin war, it was only one city that survive. It is also where

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the Ku Klux Klan was founded. It is the one state we know Donald Trump

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will win. In terms of what the practicalities are, I think

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everybody was kind of bill used. Nigel Farage was... Do people know

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who ears in the US? No, of course not. -- do people know who he is?

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What people do respect is in a nameless accent! -- English accent.

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I've been trying to acquire one for 30 years and it's not working. All

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my attempts have been mocked mercilessly. It went make a

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difference to the outcome of the election. It is just an August blip.

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It also underlines a certain kind of desperation in the Trump campaign

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and perhaps among his core supporters. Really, why would you

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listen to Nigel Farage except to say we are against the establishment?

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But nobody understood. You can say he was one of the leaders in a

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movement that one a referendum against the tide. He wasn't even

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invited by your friends in the Conservative Party to sit on the

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platform with them during the Brexit campaign. Boris Johnson and Michael

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Gove are the leaders... The Conservative Party didn't campaign.

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The party had a neutral position. There was an official campaign

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headed by two members, well, one member of the Cabinet and the Mayor

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of London. Let's not be playing too much with words there. I don't think

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anyone who followed it on the panel really thought anything other that

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Michael Gove and Boris Johnson were conservatives and Nigel Farage was

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the outsider. And left the party almost as soon as they want. That is

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a very odd one. -- one. There is a limit to the appeal of populist

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leaders like Farah each and Trump. There is a section of people who

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will always believe them. Followers will continue to listen and love

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everything they say. The problem for Trump and Nigel Farage, the voters

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who are undecided, might like some of the things they say but who are

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disgusted all revolted with the racism. Let's face it. Politically

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and correct stances they have on things like women, ethnic

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minorities. -- politically incorrect. There has been a a lot of

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talk about the rise of the populace. Is that being sustained in other

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countries? Yes, this is happening a year before the French presidential

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elections, the burkini band, we are seeing socialist and centre-right

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politicians latching on the debate because they are faring Marie Le

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Pen. She is a great friend of Nigel Farage. She wants to repeat what

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Britain did, voting for an exit. There is clearly a tired and it is a

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result of the greatest economic recession since the 1930s with 30

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years of economic mobilisation that it has a serious impact on the lives

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of the poorest, least educated and so on. And mainstream politics that

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has looked very samey. People like Trump and Nigel Farage sit outside

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it. People have been calling Trump racist, people called Nigel Farage

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racist and he went on to demonstrate that that accusation needn't hold

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you back from electoral success. You try to transcend that label, term of

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abuse, which has normally been the death knell of your career, Nigel

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Farage is the first person you would look to, unlike Marie Le Pen who are

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still outside the acceptable mainstream. Nigel Farage one. They

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make racism acceptable. No, they make being full sleigh accused of

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racism acceptable. -- falsely. That goes to show why the Remain campaign

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last. I think it is a recipe for disaster, isolation and dismantle

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meant in the long run. I believe Nigel Farage has tried to go back to

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the limelight and he chose America for that. He knows this country, he

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is not as he was, the star. He goes there and I honestly believe he is

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gaining more than Trump himself. If you can make it there, you could

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make it anywhere! It was Churchill who promised

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to fight them on the beaches - French beaches in the second world

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war, but he certainly The modern day battle on the beaches

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- and, yes, there has been one already, a punch-up in Corsica -

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is over the burkini ban, swimwear that covers

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almost the entire body. Photographs of a woman

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being instructed to remove hers by four male police officers

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was deeply unsettling for some, others insisted Islamic

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dress was "provocative" - a surprising statement perhaps

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when the French are unmoved by On Friday, the bans were thrown

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into doubt when the Council of State, France's highest

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administrative court suspended the ban at Villeneuve-Loubet pending

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a detailed judgement This debate is fast turning into one

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in which there is very little empathy from one side to the other.

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Had you see this working its way through the system? -- how do you.

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It is reflecting a hugely divided society which is on the verge of

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hysteria about Muslims in their midst because this is what it is

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about. It shows a country that has a huge discomfort with religious

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people and displays of religious belief. Also it has a problem with

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the way that it deals with women. I'm sorry to say, it is yet another

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case of men telling women what to do with their bodies. All these mayors

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in France who have imposed the burkini bands at men. The

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politicians who have supported the ban, they also tend to be male.

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Women do not... It is Barbarians. The woman perhaps would not impose.

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I stress perhaps, would not think about... Marie le then perhaps. Yes,

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but she is different. It shows opinions are changing in France

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because ten years ago when the first bands on displays of religious

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symbols in France came up, there was a consensus in France about how

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right it was. Now, not so much. You see editorials in the mainstream

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newspapers where people are clearly unhappy. They feel terribly

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distasteful, an infringement of liberty. It is a polarised opinion.

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One hand, the elites are somehow changing and starting to think about

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the republican model and what is the problem with militant republicanism

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and on the other hand you have a polarisation of we have to do

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something about tackling Muslims in France who have inflicted terrorist

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attacks on us. I'm not entirely sure this is about the French idea of

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secularism. There is some long history going back to the Napoleonic

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era when the minority that was both racial and religious were the Jews

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of eastern France who were finally granted citizenship and civil

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rights. Napoleon didn't appreciate the speed they were try to

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integrate. He can been something -- convened something and out of that

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came a whole bunch of rules about how you had to stop having Jewish

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names, you had to have the Christian name, also rules about trades you

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could do. There is history of the state intervening to force the pace

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of integration. This is one of total absurdity because this is a swimming

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costume. This is not about the Koran, this is about people who want

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to dress modestly I go to the beach. Sometimes we have a good laugh at

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the French and French officialdom, especially those who favour Brexit.

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But in this one, the court came through and hopefully this is just

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an August story. But there are 50 places or municipalities that are

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challenging this. They said no, we are going to impose it. They said

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they will carry on until the final judgment. This is the biggest

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present you are giving to radical Islam. Is annexed a women wouldn't

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go to the beaches and swim wearing bikinis. -- Islamic State. They

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don't go to swing at all. This is the problem and they are trying to

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make a link between Islamic State the burkini. Let me put you what the

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mayor of the town where the ban has been overturned by the court said,

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he said we need to decide whether we want a smiley, friendly version of

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sherry a law on our beaches or if we want the rules of the Republic to be

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implemented. -- Shari a law. When you go to divide all Morocco or

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Tunisia and your wife would like to swim with the burkini, do you see

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Tunisian police coming to you saying your wife should cover up. -- your

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wife would like to swim with a bikini. France is supposed to be

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secular, but they don't want to see a woman wearing burkini. Nigella

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Lawson is not a member of Islamic State she wore a burkini. Why should

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she not? If she is in France, will the police come to her saying,

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Nigella Lawson, you're not allowed to wear one. She is a well-known

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cookery writer, for those who don't know. I don't believe the state

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should tell people what to wear that unsurprised by the comparison you

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have just made because you maintaining Western women are

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required to or made to cover up? And not imply that at all. I say why is

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it, it is the liberal choice. If there is a Muslim citizen, French

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muslin citizen are not allowed to do so and the country is supposed to be

:23:35.:23:39.

liberal and secular. -- French Muslim. In terms of carwash and, as

:23:40.:23:49.

a Conservative, what is your take on this? -- in terms of coercion.

:23:50.:23:54.

Should municipalities have the right to say no burkini? Or is it a

:23:55.:23:58.

question for any government to get involved in? My judgment of what

:23:59.:24:03.

people wear is up to me, not up to the state. So you think it is

:24:04.:24:10.

ridiculous. Correct. America has best tradition of separating church

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and state. Has it had... Has it not struggled in the past with these

:24:19.:24:26.

issues? It is interesting, yes, of course. These so-called culture wars

:24:27.:24:32.

which have been going on most of my adult life have come, the Argent

:24:33.:24:40.

starts with religious component. For example, the very first issue was

:24:41.:24:43.

prayer in school. -- the argument starts. We had to say The Lord's

:24:44.:24:48.

Prayer every morning before school started. An atheist challenged in

:24:49.:24:54.

court and the Supreme Court says you cannot have prayer in school and

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from that moment to this, the religious communities in America

:24:59.:25:01.

have been for the most part on the right wing, been fighting to have

:25:02.:25:07.

what their view of the... Will have to be very quick. A quick judgment,

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will the ban be overturned? They will continue until there is a

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definite ban across the nation. I think it is an August story, we went

:25:20.:25:24.

about it next year. It suits Nicholas Arcos the. -- Sarkozy. I'm

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happy the ban has been lifted because the timing of this is

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disastrous. We'll have to leave it there. Thank you for being with us.

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That's it for Dateline London for this week -

:25:44.:25:45.

we're back next week at the same time.

:25:46.:25:48.

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