15/10/2016 Dateline London

Hello and welcome to Dateline London.

The new Cold War between Russia and the West

against the background of more bloodshed in Syria.

And has Brexit become what one MP described as a "Dog's Brexit"?

A hugely costly mess, because those who most strongly

advocate it have not figured out how to make it work?

Alexander Nekrasov who is a Russian journalist

Abdel Bari Atwan who writes on Arab affairs and

Ned Temko who is a political commentator.

Good to see you all. Relations between Russia and the United

States, between Russia and western Europe at at a low ebb.

Each blames the other for the mess in Syria.

Britain's foreign secretary called for demonstrations

outside the Russian embassy, and from the Baltic to Ukraine there

Is this a new Cold War, and can relations be mended?

They are not good, the relations. Do you see it as a new Cold War?

Depends on how you look at the Cold War. For some in at the Cold War

never ended. If it would have been over, Nato would have been

disbanded. Not only did it stayed on it started to move eastwards in an

aggressive way. We have Nato surrounding Russia. The one thing

that is very different between the old Cold War and the new Cold War,

which is gradually turning into hot war in some areas, is there was a

sense of certainty in the old Cold War. We had two camps opposed to

each other. They knew perfectly well that mutual destruction --

destruction was the game if something happened. It was fighting

on the fringes mostly and everybody knew what was going to happen. Now,

we have entered the age of uncertainty. Nobody knows what is

going to happen. Nobody knows how a conflict might develop like in Syria

or war in Iraq. How it can develop into a regional war or potentially a

global war. The difference is, for example, in Russia they don't know

whom to talk to in America and who runs the show in America. We don't

know. One group seems to be supporting one side, for example in

Syria will stop the other side -- group seems to be supporting other

side. Alec Obama seems to be detached from politics. This is the

most dangerous thing you can have in the nuclear world.

You cover Brussels, how does it seem that? The Balkans and Sweden is

concerned about this. They would be an accurate that Nato

upped its activity on Russia's borders in response to Russia's

incursions into Ukraine. That is seen as a response. Tensions between

Brussels have never been so bad. Nato in Russia and the US and

Russia. We have to keep in my bid is a debate that is going to pick up

this week about EU sanctions on Russia. EU foreign ministers will

meet in Luxembourg on Monday and there is a summit of EU leaders.

Europe's relationship with Russia will be discussed. Within Europe

that are different views. Certain countries would like to roll back

from Russian sanctions. They are feeling the heat. Other countries,

mainly Balkans and Britain want to continue. That is a debate about

whether there should be new sanctions against Russia. It looks

like that won't happen. The EU will look at sanctions against City and

individuals. Where little Britain on this? Boris Johnson called for

demonstrations outside the country with whom we are not actually in

conflict was odd. How surprising that Boris Johnson should say

something odd! I wouldn't put much stock in what Boris should say about

demonstrations. He is only the Foreign Secretary! Britain is

confused at present as it is about just about everything because the

government is in the process of trying to work its way out and

everything is subsumed in Brexit. What I would say as an American and

someone who lived and worked in Moscow for three years in the early

1980s ended the -- under the stagnation. The beginning of the end

of the Soviet Union. I don't think we're going back to a full-scale

Cold War. Too much has changed. You mentioned me to the issue at

destruction as a nuclear doctrine. One change is those sorts of

doctrines will be applied to hacking and counter hacking into information

stealing, to try and influence the American election as seems the case

with Russia. There are other things. I agree with Alexander that we have,

at least for the first stable future, we need to give up on the

notion many of us had there might be post-soviet union, the prospects

some new form of cooperative relationship between Russia and the

United States. I want to come on to Syria in the second. Isn't part of

it the Cold War ended with the west thinking, we have won. Russia

thinking we have lost and are surrounded. It didn't and with a

conference in Versailles. -- did not end. It has been a ad hoc, Nato is

going to move into the east. Russian politics has been in Flex. We go

from Gorbachev to Boris Yeltsin, to Putin. There are difficult things

swirling around. I think it is in the long-term interests in both

these countries, assuming that Hillary Clinton is president, to

work out some sort of motive. Syria is just one of those places outside

powers have just been fiddling while more and more cities are killed.

Aleppo is the part we are thinking about. Where are we on that? Where

do you see this superpower relationship affecting that?

When they heard Boris Johnson calling for the a demonstration, I

thought is he the Foreign Minister or Colonel Gaddafi? When it comes to

saving, he said Britain is looking at the military option on Syria.

They are coordinating with other members of Nato. He was slapped down

by Theresa May. She is in charge. It seems Boris Johnson, the United

States and Russia are banging the drums of war. The situation in Syria

is tense. We are waiting for the trigger. Plenty of warplanes. A lot

of exchange of threats. We heard a spokesman of the Russian foreign

ministry saying we are going to respond to any American attacks

against civilian targets. Syrian Army. It seems it is not a Cold War,

it is a hot war. Now, today, there is a meeting between Sergey Lavrov

and John Kerry. They are looking how to prevent... Nothing will happen in

Switzerland. There is no president in Washington technically speaking.

We are waiting for a new leader to emerge. Until that election nothing

will happen. We are missing one big point. Syria is important that it is

Ukraine you need to look at. In Ukraine, from the Russian point of

view, the Americans have crossed the red line. That is it. Doing what?

From the outside point of view the Russians have annexed Crimea.

Ukraine is a much bigger threat. If a nuclear war happens between Russia

and God forbid, America, it be over Ukraine not because of Syria. That

is the main point people are missing. In the Ukraine, the 20

million ethnic Russians, a bit less now, a lot of than left, this is the

point where Russia will not forgive America and Russia will not allow

America to stay there. This is the crucial point. Syria is just a

sideshow in this particular instance. What do you mean America

staying there? The Ukraine crisis started because Ukraine was about to

sign an agreement with European Union and they pulled out at the

last minute. That is what happened. That happened in November. The arms

coup happened after. It happened after. The regime was overthrown ie

an armed coup. After they pulled out of the EU agreement. The agreement

with the EU had nothing to do with it. Was a confrontation now could

happen in Syria. It is the hottest point now. You have Russian,

American... Syria is just another aspect of

this. We think most soul will be affected in the next few weeks. That

is what the Americans are focusing on. We might see that being their

focus and Aleppo being left for the moment.

That is lots of dangerous spot and that is the key, the wedding thing.

The advertising for a British favourite spread called Marmite says

The same could be said of Brexit, which this week is being blamed

for the rising cost of foods such as Marmite and for Parliament

being refused a real say in the most important political decision

You don't speak for the European Union but you can reflect their

views. Theresa May's speech at the conference was the most defining

moment of the post Brexit process. She was very clear. She mentioned

about not having coming under the European Court of Justice and taking

back control of immigration. She's not going to go for single market

access. There has been a definite hardening opposition from the

European side. The head of the European Council said the only

option is a hard Brexit. Worryingly for those in Britain want to stay as

close as possible to Europe, we have seen our hardening from Angela

Merkel. She has been one of the country's wanting to keep Britain

close. She spoke to a powerful business leaders last week who have

concerns over exports. The message was, I see your concerns but we have

bigger issues. We need to preserve the single market and keep the

European Union together. I spoke to the former EU president

this week and he said that you have to understand this is not a top

priority for the French government, the German government and he went

through the government. It may be your big deal but it isn't ours. It

will be terrible. He suggested it will be difficult. That was one

view. It is a view I share. It is a mess. It need not be cataclysmic

that we are already seeing problems with Marmite. Luckily, I hate

Marmite! Another Cold War! Here we go. There is a lot of economic

damage that will be done by Brexit. That is no way around it. I was

talking to a senior or civil servant who said that in practical terms

there is no soft Brexit option. There is take for example Theresa

May yesterday apparently talked to the head of Nissan and reassured him

that post Brexit there will be unfettered, unchanged, unamended

access to the Central market. Very important. Here is the problem.

Let's say that happens. The only way for that to happen is some sort of

sectorial agreement with the single market. I can guarantee you, it

isn't about punishing Britain, you can't have access to the single

market in cars without being subject to European court of justice rulings

on how market work. -- how that market works. It is coming home to

roost the way this referendum campaign was run was on a, promises

that were undeliverable, and B, no real understanding because the lead

campaigners didn't expect to win. No understanding and how it would work.

What has struck me is Parliament attempting to reassert itself. We

are governed by Queen and Parliament. It is clear what that is

supposed to mean except we have got the will of the British people

absolutely clear we want to get out of the EU. But it isn't. It isn't

clear. What is not clear is what that will look like stock is then a

mandate for leaving the single market? That is the question MPs

have been asking. People are like the MPs in order to

represent them. I am surprised, Theresa May doesn't want any

enforced the parliament this kind of issue. Parliament is anti-Brexit. It

is simple. The whole problem, just like the Cold War, we have

uncertainty and confusion about the plans that Theresa May have. Half

her Cabinet and against Brexit, 90% of parliament against Brexit. The

problem is Theresa May, with this uncertainty, can destroy the whole

presence of Brexit. That process. She has to invoke Article 50. She

can't continue to say, I am going to invoke it. She has to do it now.

Then we work hard because we are pledged to the wall.

She would do it in the New Year. 1 million march to London in favour

of Brexit has to take place. Boris Johnson asked for a demonstration

and now you. People want this decision of theirs

to be carried out. What is the detail. That is the point.

The referendum has supremacy. No, it doesn't!

Whichever way you look at it, Theresa May is the Prime Minister

and has huge power to shape the future of Britain for centuries to

come. That is the reality. The same way as the other leaders have power

and the other side. There is an interesting constitutional argument

about how much oversight she should have. I think she should be

scrutinised. I do agree her problem is most of the MPs are remainders.

They're not going to go against their voters either and say, let's

not leave the European Union. They want greater scrutiny. It shows the

limitations of a referendum. One reason you have representative

democracy is you don't ask the British people on every big

decision. You basically say, this is what we're going to do as a

government. David Cameron's fear was if they said they were going to stay

in European Union they would lose a lot of seats to Ukip.

It is difficult to overturn several hundred years of British history in

which Parliament scrutinises the executive. We will see. This is a

difficult... The Brexiteers are talking about taking over

sovereignty. We are talking about a situation

that if Britain needs Europe it is going to be disastrous. Ideye all of

you to find in London goods made in Europe, they are all made in China,

Poland. There are a lot of cars outside made

in Germany. We don't buy Chinese wine.

Europe is not that big any more in the world. That is the point. All

this fear... It is simple as that. There are

other markets outside it can deal with.

How can you do that? The painful period has to be there

when you are getting out of the single market.

When the pound is at its lowest level for 30 years, when it is going

to go down and down again, when the property market is stagnant, when

Britain has to renegotiate all the agreements with every country if

they are going to leave European Union. What are you talking about?

The fact we hear this mantra that Britain has the fifth largest

economy in the world kind of skates over the fact that a significant

part of GDP comes from services. A significant part of that comes from

financial services which are dependent on par sporting and access

to the single market. The City of London are very worried. There is a

political point to be made about the City. Now look what has happened

after they kept close to the Conservative Party.

We had the pound exchange for $1 and nothing happened. Exports grew. You

must not make it big deal out of a temporary problem. It is not a

temporary problem if the out of the single market. There are two things.

Both of them are going to be under scrutiny. If they lose that it will

be a long-term consequence is that now we have solved the problem of

Brexit and the Cold War, should Bob Dylan have had the Nobel Prize for

literature? He should. It is a must. He is siding with the oppressed

people. He is against the American establishment. He is loved by

millions all over. Why not? This is how we're going to solve the Middle

east problem. A nice little gee-whiz singer is now a Palestinian war

hero. He is anti-war. You would have given him the Nobel Prize. I am on

the side of no, I don't think so. He is no Seamus Heaney. A lot of the

writers, brilliant novelists who are working away, toiling away, I think

I saw 11 Welsh making a point and I'm not trying to be a jest. Most

people under 40 know a couple of songs but just about. It is that

nostalgia. I don't know if that really merits a Nobel Prize in

literature. What do you think is mag this is a great honour. Seamus

Heaney, we would all agree, a great poet. Do you think Bob Dylan should

have had the Nobel Prize for literature? It depends how you look

at the prize. If you are doing it from a Brit of fun, why not? A Park

might be a contender next year. Once they published those lyrics of his

and you say to the people, they have read those lyrics. I don't think a

lot of people will agree he should have had the prize. They are

childish, naive, leftists. I am sorry. Leftist in a bad way!

Unbelievable. They gave it a Harold Pinter which is a classical poet.

Letters have something different. You have all the books written...

I read about novelists. There is nothing wrong with novels but you

don't sing along to them. He is a musician. I studied music. I see

both artful. You are opening up a whole issue of genre. Film writers

will be next. With visual artists? It will come gradually. There is by

version from the classical way of writing. Next time, just wait. I am

worried the Nobel Julia getting down to the kids and I choosing somebody

at 75 years of age. What is the final verdict?

Once has definitely. I think he is a very good writer. If you read the

lyrics they are not cliche. At the Nobel prize-winning novelists are

poets, people don't know their work. -- some of the. They shouldn't have

published those lyrics. Once they publish them, people think there is

something there. We have failed to solve that

question either. That's it for Dateline

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