29/10/2016 Dateline London


29/10/2016

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LineFromTo

Hello and welcome to Dateline London.

:00:23.:00:24.

Does it matter if the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom says different

:00:25.:00:27.

things about Brexit publicly from those she said privately

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NATO reinforces its northern flank, how much of a threat is Russia?

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And the days before the US presidential election the FBI

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says it is to look again at Hillary Clinton's emails,

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My guests today are Alexander Nekrassov who is a Russian

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journalist and former Kremlin adviser, Maria Margaronis

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of The Nation, Michael Goldfarb who is an American journalist

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and commentator and Alex Deane who is a Conservative Commentator.

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The Guardian obtained a copy of the speech the premise to give to a

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group of Goldman Sachs executives. In his speech, she talked of some of

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the horrors ahead of Britain if we voted to leave the European Union.

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Now, as promised, she is clear that lever we must. Does it matter what

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she once said when what matters now is what she does? I don't accept the

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premise. She was repeating the mainstream position of the remaining

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campaign. Of course, facts have changed. People have changed their

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beliefs. The Treasury to this we would be plunged into immediate

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recession, we have not. The Chancellor said he would lose

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500,000 jobs, we have not. The suggestion that things were

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immediately going to turn for the worst was part of the Goldman Sachs

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speech. That was part of what everyone in government was saying.

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Theresa May was a remain campaigner, not an enthusiastic one, but that

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was her position. What she said in private was consistent with her

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public position. The Guardian think they have a good story, I don't see

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the point. The leaf campaign said there would be ?350 million going to

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the NHS. Was the whole campaign based on people saying things that

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weren't true. We are still in the European Union. He actually think it

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will go to the NHS? I wouldn't have used that figure if it was up to me.

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The point is that that is our contribution and it is up to us how

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we spend it. We will reclaim that contribution. We can do what we like

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that. It might go to the NHS, I don't know. It will be up to us. Our

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now Prime Minister expressed views in the course of the campaign that

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we should not leave the European Union, why is that a surprise? That

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was her position. Does it matter? I have in agreement with Alex. Then we

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shifted the question around to claim and counterclaim. We should have a

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moratorium on punditry until article 50 is with invoked. I agree, she

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said what the remainder position within the Cabinet was. We get

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excited about it because she's headed to a group at Goldman Sachs.

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We have spent this campaign wondering what Hillary Clinton is

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said to Goldman Sachs bankers when she was giving talks. There is this

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thing about Goldman Sachs. It doesn't seem odd to me. What I would

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like to know, it always seemed to me that you couldn't rise to the top of

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the Conservative Party unless you were, somewhere in your soul,

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Eurosceptic, even if you read David Cameron or Theresa May or George

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Osborne. The big beasts like Ken Clarke and Chris Patten, no longer

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have a constituency within the party. You have to be able to nod

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and wink to the Eurosceptic wing in the party that deep down inside I am

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with you. Theresa May's shift to her current position doesn't seem to be

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a very big step really. Theresa May has always been an eurosceptic. She

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was always saying it is better to stay in, not that she supported the

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EU, that is not an inspiring rallying g-force of very few people

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love the EU. The campaign was based on it isn't very good, but we should

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stay in any way. It comes in the week when we have heard that Nissan

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are delighted to stay in the UK and we don't know why and they said is

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no money involved but Vince Cable who was in government says that

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there must have been some promise of a sting in the customs union, which

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is why, at the point is still relevant. First of all, the whole

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campaign was fought on a mystery. We have no idea what it will mean to

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leave the EU and we can't know until it is negotiated and there is a

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fantasy gone on in Westminster that Britain is in control of this

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because there are the other European states as well. The Nissan question

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is important because if undercover promises are being made to

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corporations about what may or may not happen, we should know about it.

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No body is shocked people say one thing to bankers and another in

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public. She remained very quiet during the campaign. She was clearly

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positioning herself to be a possible future Prime Minister and it worked.

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Does it matter what the premise to actually thinks? Is she just a front

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for the party or do we need to know what she believes? I think it is

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very important to know what she thinks in private. It is quite naive

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to say that she said that because Cameron also said that. I am sorry,

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first of all, my opinion is from outside and she has no idea what to

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do with the Brexit. Absolutely. There is a total division in the

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government. They are struggling to present the case to certain sections

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of the public because they don't know what to say. The whole point

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was that the referendum clearly said we want out. The Article 50 should

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have been triggered at once. Once she became Prime Minister, appointed

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promised by the way, her duty was not to say Brexit is Brexit start

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going into some sort of initiatives like grammar schools and other

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things. Her job was to deliver Brexit. Brexit needed to come at

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once because once you trigger article 15 then you have to do

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things. Now they don't do anything. Do you agree? The other view is you

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can't do it immediately because we need to think this through and it

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has not been thought through in terms of the practicalities. I don't

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think Theresa May said those things because David Cameron said, I think

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she said because she believes them. She still believes we would be

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better off in the European Union. If you were looking for somebody to

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guide us out of the EU in a calm, measured, orderly fashion from the

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pool of talent in parliament, you would fix -- pic Theresa May. I feel

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more comfortable with her at the helm. The turning point for me is

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less important than the direction of travel and research and teaching

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gives is that it will happen. Do you think it is relevant to consider

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what is keeping Nissan here and whether there are any other dealers

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and other businesses will want to know because if there is a pot of

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money, they will want a bit of that, if there is not that will want to

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know what is the incentive if they foresee problems about Sting in

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Britain outside the EU? Businesses have already made huge investments

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to be here. You don't have to convince somebody hard to do what

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they already want today. It would involve huge amounts of and money to

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relocate existing businesses from here to another market, often the

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other market is less attractive for cultural and corporate reasons. I

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don't know each individual would set between the government and Nissan,

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but I suspect the government didn't have the hold down the Great Danes.

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We note Nissan have already said they could move to France. They said

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they would do that when we didn't join the EU. There is a factory

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which has a long lead in time for products. If you were going to exit

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you wouldn't commission new vehicles at that property. The fact they are

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committed to the premises... If there is some kind of tariff, if the

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sales of Nissan cars are registered in Switzerland for tax purposes,

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there is all sorts of things going on in terms of tax. There is a long

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tradition in this country as deindustrialisation has wiped out

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communities in Wales in the north-east of England, of

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governments of both parties dipping into their pockets to find

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incentives to keep steel manufacturing here and some amount

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of carbon manufacturing. What will happen when Jag wire and Rover say

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we want the same deal as Nissan. Do you know of any promise? We know of

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nothing. Europe is in trouble and to say that banks would move their

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headquarters to Europe where the Eurozone is sinking, where it is

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protected by a cushion of 100 billion euros is created every

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month. No bank in its right mind will move to Europe. No big company

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will move to Europe the sub a final word because maybe she should wait

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for article 50. We are making more powers in this country than we ever

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have. When we make more and export more, we tend to make and export

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very good smart cards and by large ones. That is to the advantage of

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several manufacturers. It is likely they will get a deal on cars and

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several other things. As we have discussed, relations between Nato

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and Russia have gone from bad to worse after events in Ukraine. Nato

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is continuing to reinforce on the Baltic in that protecting countries

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that were former part of the USSR or under Warsaw Pact controlled. Where

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is this leading? What is the meaning of life? Firstly, I find this

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situation bizarre, to be honest. To portray Russia as an aggressor and

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that wants to invade the Baltics, even Poland has now mentioned it, to

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create this illusion that the Russian military build-up is posing

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a danger to the world, I would like to remind everyone here at that the

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Russian military budget is about 180 billion a year, where's the American

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budget is about $1 trillion every year. You are saying to me that

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Russia is posing a danger when its budget is probably, I can't even

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compare it. People in eastern Europe take a different view. This whole

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issue was basically created out of nothing. The whole issue was created

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after the Ukrainian crazes which, by the way, conveniently is counted not

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from the armed coup in Kiev, but from the events which took place

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after that. There was a coup in Kiev which overthrew an elected

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government. Why are you still there now? When this happens,

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repercussions started. That would never have been a referendum in the

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Crimea if there hadn't been a military coup in Kiev. You must

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always counted from the specific point of history. You cannot just

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take out a bit and say we don't like this one. Why are the troops still

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there now now that your so-called coup isn't happening? The coup has

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happened, a hostile government is in place in Kiev which is threatening

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the eastern parts and Russian people. Do you honestly believe

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that? To save Russia has invaded Ukraine, I can say to you that

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Britain has invaded Gibraltar again to protected from Spain. This is

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absurd. Just moving on from Ukraine because we are not going to agree on

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this one. I think Nato is not taking this seriously. If you think about

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the 300,000 Russian troops and the Dogra station 4000 troops. The real

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issue for me is Syria. What on earth can anybody do to stop Russia

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supporting and bombing hospitals and schools. He should not talk like

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that. What do we do about the US led coalition bombing civilians in

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Mosul. One at a time. There is no real comparison between the very

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slow, probably too slow and methodical, together of mostly Iraqi

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and Kurdish forces to try to force Islamic State out of Mosul and what

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is happening in eastern Alaba. There is simply no intellectual or moral

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comparison that you can make. There is no chlorine bombs being dropped,

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barrel bombs being dropped. We should stop this propaganda.

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Chlorine is used by the rebels most of the time. It has been proven

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already. You cannot just continue to invent those facts. You are not the,

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I have been in Mosul, I have not been in Alaba. I can say that the

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independent NGOs that monitored this sort of thing have to have the space

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between us where we can say if they said it is true. Not what the

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Russian government says. It is reported and we have to accept this

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otherwise we cannot have any conversations on this. You never

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listen to the other NGOs. We have eastern Alaba which is supposedly

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suffering, which it is, let me finish, there is western Lebanon

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where children are killed every day, that you don't know, but you don't

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want to see. Work involves two sides. Thanks to the glories of the

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internet and Twitter and drones, the is plenty of video that hovers over

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both sides of the city. We have satellite images coursing through

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Facebook and Twitter where many journalists... Eight lot of them are

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fakes. It is a conspiracy theory. It is not a conspiracy theory. In Libya

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this was a fake footage used all the time, now we know how it is done.

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You cannot just tell me that there is no fake footage. The fact is,

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would you agree that Russian forces are bombing Alaba at this time? No,

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they are fighting terrorists. Let's move on. The frightening thing is

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here by the denials. This is like what the Iraqi regime said, but this

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is a nuclear power. With days before the US presidential election, the

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FBI is to reopen an enquiry into Hillary Clinton's e-mails. Is it the

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biggest thing since Watergate as Donald Trump says? It was a

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bombshell dropped on a Friday evening. The one thing we have found

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out over the last 18 hours is that these e-mails came from Anthony

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Wheeler, the disgraced former congressman from New York who is

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married to Hillary Clinton's top aide. Sometimes referred to as

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Hillary Clinton's brain, or her hard drive. What seems to have happened

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is they were married and the wife sometimes used the family computer.

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This is getting to the heart of what is seen as dodgy Hillary. What is

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she doing sending e-mails only private server? That is the

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allegation and we don't know what the e-mails contain. That is great.

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I don't think she is a good candidate and you wait. It just

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demonstrates a propensity for prayer judgment. I don't think it is the

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same kind of scandal as her own behaviour. It is the act of someone

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at next year and it is on a much smaller scale. You might question

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the judgment in being married to Anthony Wiener, that alone in using

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the computer. I don't think is an issue it is as significant as

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Hillary's own fast misuse of technology. The bad thing for her is

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timing. It right now. It is odd the FBI decided yesterday to do it. Ten

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days to go? Are you accusing the FBI of many leading the electoral cycle?

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I don't see evidence to support that. In the course of another

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investigation they discovered material that I am sure they would

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rather not have to deal with. This brings the FBI into a grid and

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difficult political spotlight. What we are all missing here is that we

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are trying to portray this election as if Hillary Clinton is the

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candidate of Wall Street, Goldman Sachs and all that. There is Donald

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Trump he is basically all by himself. A billionaire, using his

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own money. There are two powerful forces fighting with each other.

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There are vested interest groups who have the money, the muscle and so on

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behind each candidate. If you tell me that, for example, strange things

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are happening around the campaign and accusations of Russia being

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involved in manipulative in the presidential campaign, of course

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there are powerful groups behind this. That does not happen by

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chance. It just doesn't work like that. I have been a spin doctor

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myself, I know how this works. Information is fed into the system

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and it starts to unravel. My humble opinion is that pressure was put on

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the FBI. It is obvious. Ten days before an election. By whom? That is

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what I said, vested interest groups. And FBI director comes out ten days

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before the election and says we have some evidence, I cannot tell you

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what it is, but... He hasn't seen it. He implies it is so damaging for

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Hillary, this is electioneering. I am not a huge fan of Hillary

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Clinton. I don't think she is a good candidate, I don't think she is a

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crypto. I am not sure where these e-mails were police now. It smells

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political to me. It certainly smells political. What worries me is what

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happens after Hillary is elected, because I don't think it will put

:21:16.:21:18.

Trump in the White House. There is a broad stream in the Republican party

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he just think the Democrats do not have the right to be in power.

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Whichever candidate is elected they will face investigations. Donald

:21:27.:21:30.

Trump this a lawsuit over Trump University and there are other

:21:31.:21:35.

charges. Hillary Clinton faces a different set of charges. Some

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candidates edge presidents have ended in scandal, but this president

:21:42.:21:48.

will start in scandal. Donald Trump is being investigated within the

:21:49.:21:52.

legal system. Even yesterday and the day before, there were plenty of

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Republicans who were standing up and just insisting before this FBI

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e-mails that they would just immediately began investigating

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Hillary. The idea is to tie her down. The House of Representatives

:22:10.:22:14.

will likely stay in the hands of the Republicans. Going back to 1994 the

:22:15.:22:19.

way that the Republicans, when they have a majority in the house, deep

:22:20.:22:23.

with a Democratic president is to bury them in paper. These are

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processors of Congress. Democrats fitted with Reagan toward the end of

:22:32.:22:35.

his presidency. It is slightly different but... The idea of

:22:36.:22:40.

criminalising political differences is not just one party in America.

:22:41.:22:46.

The extent to which it takes over from governance, it has been

:22:47.:22:51.

excellent potential over the last four democratic terms of office. To

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Clinton presidencies and to Obama presidency is. I agree with Maria. I

:22:59.:23:03.

have a feeling that in the long run this would change the outcome of the

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election much. It might increase Donald Trump's vote, but libertarian

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voters were coming back to him anyway and I am not sure about it.

:23:15.:23:21.

Either candidate elected as the president of the United States is

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going to begin office with some kind of cloud. This is a uniquely bad

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offering. I don't know how they got to the point where these are the two

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candidates. They are both very lucky in the opponents that they face.

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They are so lucky to have such bad opponents. Two we actually have

:23:43.:23:50.

agreement around that? I think it is a game changer. I saw the jaws drop

:23:51.:23:56.

on CNN when the breaking news came. They were just hitting the floor.

:23:57.:24:01.

Was that because they were wondering what the FBI is up to? Why is this a

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game changer? When the FBI comes up with accusations about a candidate

:24:15.:24:18.

in 11 days before the election and you are telling me that this doesn't

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work, this will not influence it, this is the real world. In the real

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world... There's no detail. There is some detail. We know it is alleged

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that someone close to Clinton who had access to sensitive information

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used a system which was not secure. Anthony Wiener was using it at the

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same time. She disseminated material in part. The timing is dreadful

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Frecklington. I am not sure it is a game changer but it is not positive.

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More than 10% of the population have voted already. The trends are well

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set and he will get 43 144% of the board, she will get 46 or 47. Will

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win. -- 43 or 44%. That is it for this week. You can interact to

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complain about our guests online. We are back next week.

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