19/11/2016 Dateline London


19/11/2016

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Hello and welcome to Dateline London.

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There simply is no escape from the world's biggest news

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Plus: Does the British Government really have a clue about Brexit?

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When will they let us into the secret?

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My guests today are: Amir Taheri, who is an Iranian writer,

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Suzanne Lynch of The Irish Times, Stephanie Baker of Bloomberg

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Markets, and Yasmin Alibhai Brown, who is a writer and commentator.

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After the delight of some, the shock of others,

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and the surprise of many that Donald Trump is to become president

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of the United States, the more prosaic struggle now

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is to create the Trump administration.

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What clues do we have about how he will govern?

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And how do others react around the world?

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First of all, in terms of clues to how he will govern and the kind of

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people he has appointed, it has proved divisive, despite his saying

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he wants to bring the country together. Yes, he has made three key

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appointments so far in the law and order, national security space.

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Those were rewarding loyalists during the campaign. Jeff Sessions

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is attorney journal, -- general, Mike Pompeo. They are hawks and

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outside the mainstream of the Republican party. The administration

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is shaping up to be unlike anything America has ever seen before. What

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you would expect from that is Mike Glennon has been a real hawk and

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would be expected to take a much more aggressive stance on fighting

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Islamic State. Which would be very popular. He has said he doesn't

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think Islam is a religion, he thinks it's a political movement. He will

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probably take a softer line on Russia. He took part in a paid

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speaking engagement with Russia Today last year, when he was sitting

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next to Vladimir Putin, so that is what you would expect there. Mike

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Pompeo has been a fierce critic of the Iran nuclear deal and Hillary

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Clinton, so I think between Mike Pompeo and Jeff Sessions, I would

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expect Trump will follow through on his campaign promise to pursue

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Hillary Clinton on a number of fronts. And Mr Sessions himself is

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controversial, isn't he? He is someone who will, in effect, be in

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charge of the federal judiciary without being able to become a

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federal judge in self because he was unable to be confirmed as a federal

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judge because of comments he made about the Ku Klux Klan and allegedly

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about African-Americans. There were accusations. He called civil rights

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groups un-American, and now he will be running the Justice Department,

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where he will be in charge of the civil rights apartment. More

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importantly, I think, on that, because his track record on that is

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mixed, he has been a fierce critic of immigration policy and he will

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oversee immigration ports in the US as well. Again, that is something

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that strikes a chord and which the President-elect ran on, so it will

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be popular. And it will follow through on what he promised on the

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campaign trail. Some other appointments are interesting. He

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seems to be talking to everybody for Secretary of State, so it is unclear

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who he will tap for that. He will meet with Mitt Romney this weekend.

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He is apparently in the running for that. How Mitt Romney would get

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along with the likes of Mike Glennon is a real question. Or Donald Trump,

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because they didn't hit it off during the campaign. It shows that

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given Trump alia native people and so many people were critical of him,

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he doesn't have a deep bench of policy experts or experience people

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to call in to stuff his administration. You cover the

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European Union, Brussels most of the time - how is it going down?

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President Obama did his final trip to Europe, went to Greece first and

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then to Berlin. I think his job, in a sense, was to reassure his

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European counterparts about the incoming regime. He spent quite a

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lot of time in Berlin with Chancellor Merkel, which shows where

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America sees the centre of power in Europe. A big concern for European

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leaders would be the commitment to Nato and the issue around Russia.

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Significantly, following this minisummit of EU leaders with Obama

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on Thursday, they issued a statement saying they would keep sanctions

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against Russia, which is crucial, because in January, the sanctions

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that the EU has against Russia are upper renewal. There is already

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tension with some countries wanting to pull back, some wanting them to

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continue. In Brussels, people will be looking at the signals from

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Washington. In terms of timing, it is quite easy, because Mr Trump will

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not be in place until the 20th of January, and at that stage, the

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decision will have to be taken. It is significant that Chancellor

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Merkel in particular said, we will keep the pressure on Russia. The

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Iranians deal, which we will come onto as well, that is a big issue.

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Europe was involved in negotiating that for years. The EU foreign

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ministers met this week, and again, it was significant that after the

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meeting they endorsed the Iranians deal, saying they would continue to

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back it. How will this be seen? This deal was a minefield to try to do,

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and in Iranians politics, it was difficult for ministers, whatever

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one may think of them. How will it go down if Mr Trump and his people

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decide to end the deal? The truth is, there was no deal, because no

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one has signed it. There is a UN resolution which Iran has rejected.

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The only thing that has happened is that President Obama individually

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has decided to suspend some of the sanctions against Iran. The next

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president could simply refused to suspend them. We would be back where

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we started. The Iranian nuclear problem is intact and has not been

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solved. In a word, they have appealed to public opinion, and it

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is a lie, because Iran continues its nuclear programme, not that it

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doesn't have the right. The sanctions are there. They have not

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been abolished. Some of them had been suspended will stop so, the way

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forward, I think, would be for President Trump and whoever else is

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interested in solving this problem is to force or persuade Iran to

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accept the seven UN resolutions officially, write to the Security

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Council that they accept them, and then lift the sanctions against Iran

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as soon as Iran has done its part of the deal. Not to leave it to the

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United States president. He can sign up he cannot sign. It is a mess.

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Iran is suffering a lot, even now, because the Iranians cannot pay the

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salary of their ambassador in London because they don't have access to

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banking. They have to bring cash to the ambassador, and here put-mac he

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distributes it. Everywhere it is like that. It is a disaster. It has

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been lying on the part of a Obama, a lie on the part of the Iranians, a

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lie on the part of the European Union, and this Italian lady, to say

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that we have a deal. But where is the deal? What do you make of it? I

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can't tell you how depressed I am. I don't think I remember feeling

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utterly hopeless. Trump doesn't understand deals anyway. He wrote a

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book called The Art Of The Deal. That kind of deals he does. I think

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one of the things he wants to achieve is to demolish anything

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Obama tried to do did. That has been his thing - I'm going to get rid of

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Obamacare. He operates like that, doesn't he? From these appointments,

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which I find really shocking, actually, because a part of me

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thought, now that he is going to be in real power, he will make real

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attempts to be taken as a proper statesman, but no. This tells you a

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lot. I mean, I don't know how African-Americans feel today about

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these appointments. Isn't the truth about Mr Trump that he is not

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particularly in command of a whole lot of details about policy, but

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there are some things he feels strongly about, and those things he

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articulates very well to the people who voted for him. He articulates

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them to those who are filled with rage. That's what a demagogue does,

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actually. He speaks to rage very well, very well. But not to policy.

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I would like to make a comment. We could turn him into a caricature and

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just dismiss him, like Obama's opponents did. When Obama became

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president, we had a similar discussion. One of his mentors was a

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communist. To attack the person before he has done anything at all.

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As for undoing what Obama has done, this is exactly what Obama did with

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President Bush. His only policy was to undo President Bush's work. Let's

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go beyond that. If we go beyond that, for the time being, Trump at

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least has the merit of forming a cabinet that looks like him. You

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don't have anybody opposing some of your wildest ideas. The merit is

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that it is not a lie. But Obama brought all these people in and then

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prevented them from doing anything. I think the concern in Europe...

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Read their memoirs and see how they were treated. A lot of people are

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concerned that in the first few days after the election, there is a sense

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of a more conciliatory Trump, tempering his language and he would

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not revoke Obamacare are completely. We have seen the appointments of

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three very senior people in justice and law enforcement, more

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conservative hardliners, and that is worrying people. Another issue for

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Trump is the potential conflict of interest between his business

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interests and now his role as president. There is a huge issue

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here is in that there are dozens of lawsuits awaiting him. Apparently he

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is going to settle one that is imminent. Trump University. I have

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done a lot of reporting on Trump's business conflict, and they are many

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and varied, particularly when it comes to foreign policy because he

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has licensing and marketing deals in a range of countries, from Turkey to

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the Philippines to Panama. He is going to be making foreign policy

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decisions with people that, you know, that could impact his business

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deals abroad. Likewise, the involvement of his children in the

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transition team is raising serious questions. If uncut Trump --

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Ivanka Trump was at his meeting with Shinzo Abe, the first meeting with a

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foreign leader. He said he would turn the business over to his

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children and put it in a blind trust, which it is and if it is run

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by your children, particularly if they are involved in helping you

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select the people who will run your administration. His son-in-law, it

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is unclear whether he will have an advisory role and whether that

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conflicts with anti-nepotism laws in the US. This will be an ongoing

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story, and the overarching question is, will the presidency ultimately

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enrich him and increase the power of his brand? That is the flavour of

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some of the coverage in America and it suggests that the honeymoon is

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over already for many people. You know that Trump has many enemies, as

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Obama did. American politics is a violent politics. They tear each

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other apart. We know that. What is happening now is that Trump is still

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a private citizen, still not the president, so his daughter Ivanka of

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whatever her name is can go out and see Shinzo Abe, because it is not an

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official meeting. She does not have security clearance and they did not

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involve the State Department in that. So many different questions.

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He is not president yet. He must be sworn in. He has access to CIA

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briefings, he is President-elect, which is more than a private

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citizen. He can have briefings and so on, but what he does does not

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commit the United States of America. It is a completely different issue.

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I am saying that I am not a fan of Trump, I am not American, and I do

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not care who is the American president. It is none of my

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business, but I am saying that the American sport of destroying all

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their presidents before they have started is bad for America. I don't

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go with this narrative. Of course, power leads to certain compromises

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and failures, but I find it problematic to have such a cynical

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view, that every single one of them was driven by the same values as

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Trump is. The world values followed by Republicans and Democrats. I

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didn't say they had the same values, I said they were all attacked and

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destroyed before they were sworn in. Look what they did to Clinton, to

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Ronald Reagan will stop you cannot say this is the normal narrative. I

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don't think this is the new normal, and nor should it be. Whatever the

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President-elect says will be taken seriously by world leaders and

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should be regarded as de facto policy. It doesn't just affect

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Americans, it affects other people, which is why there is such an issue

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and interest in this new president. Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May

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made clear this week that there is a plan for dealing

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with Brexit, but for now The alternative view is that this

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cunning plan does not actually exist and behind Mrs May's calm exterior

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lies a world of bureaucratic panic about what is legally

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as well as politically acceptable. Let's get the view from the belly of

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the beast, which is Brussels. It has been a bad week for Theresa May this

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week. First, the report in London, leak from Deloitte, saying Britain

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was not ready and would have to hire up to 30,000 civil servants to deal

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with this. So, a drop creation programme -- a job creation

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programme? There is no shortage of bureaucrats in Brussels, and they

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are ready and waiting to get going on the negotiations and they are

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doing so insofar as they can. They have set up a task force and they

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are working at the moment on that. Politically, there are some worrying

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signs from senior figures. The German finance minister warned that

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Britain would have to pay billions after Brexit, that there would be

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some transitional deal. Germany has been seen as an ally of Britain, so

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there would be worries that they are getting tough. The Dutch finance

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minister, head of the eurogroup, he was strong and criticised Boris

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Johnson, the Foreign Secretary, who this week in an interview suggested

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that Britain would leave the customs union and yet would still have

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access to the single market. The Dutch finance minister said that was

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intellectually impossible and politically unavailable - very

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strong words. There was annoyance in Italy about Boris Johnson's comments

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about Italy exporting press echo. One of the Italian minister said,

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look, it's not as simple as that. Boris Johnson maybe has a fridge

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from Italy to put the press echo in, or an Italian car. In terms of

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retaliatory measures from Europe, the whole supply chain, it's hugely

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complex. The other issue for Theresa May is this Supreme Court case

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that's coming next month which will delay Article 50. The longer Britain

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leave this, the more prepared Europe will be. There is a lot there,

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obviously, but the German finance minister is basically saying, you

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will pay for things, not just up until you leave, but this is like a

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really bad divorce where you will be paying alimony for many years and

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you will hate each other. That was the implication, though he didn't

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put it quite as strongly as that. It is such a long relationship,

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completely entwined. It is like separating two finds that have been

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going together for 40 years of whatever it is. You cannot cut them

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without killing one of the other, so of course, it's complicated. Again,

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it was the oversimplification of the task ahead, whatever decision was

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taken by the majority of those who voted, people weren't told how

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difficult it would be, of course, because that's not how politics

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works. And it will be hard. Amir? I am always puzzled why the British

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wanted to leave the EU, because I haven't heard a proper argument on

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that score. They talk about sovereignty, but Britain shares

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sovereignty in 118 international organisations, the United Nations,

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Nato, etc. The only countries with full sovereignty at the moment are

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maybe North Korea and Zimbabwe. No one else has that. There were a

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number of issues. Control the borders. I came here from Paris and

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had to share my passport twice, so you control your borders. You don't

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want foreigners. That is a separate issue. It has nothing to do with the

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EU, and even on that score, we don't want foreigners except in the NHS,

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which is at type of British secular religion. You cannot scrutinise it

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or criticise it or anything. We also don't want to get rid of foreigners

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in the building industry because we need houses. Also, we want

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mathematicians in the city and Italian bankers, chefs in our

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restaurants. Even the idea of not wanting foreigners is meaningless.

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There is a question I put to all my British friends: In what way has

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membership of the EU adversely affected youes none of them can

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answer that. I appeal to everybody to please send me their answers. We

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will pass on the letters that come in! Blasting is not taking Britain

:20:37.:20:44.

out of the EU but taking the EU out of Britain. There are 28,000 laws.

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Since last June, 68 more have been added. What are you going to do?

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Each of these laws have supporters inside Britain, including among

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those who voted to leave. A French cynic said, in politics, it's not

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important to make a mix take -- to make a mistake, you can correct it.

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The important thing is not to do something that is not necessary. And

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this was not necessary. Whereof we left now? We have a few minutes

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left. The EU itself -- where are we left now? The EU is in terrible

:21:25.:21:28.

shape. You could have Marine Le Pen is the president of France, in which

:21:29.:21:35.

case the EU could fall apart. In Italy, there is effectively a vote

:21:36.:21:39.

of no-confidence. There are issues with Eastern Europe and elsewhere.

:21:40.:21:42.

The problem with Greece has not been solved. Maybe we left the Titanic

:21:43.:21:47.

just before it hits the iceberg. We have tried to leave. If the French

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elections go the way that people think they might, if Marine Le Pen

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wins, that changes things completely because it thrusts the EU into

:21:59.:22:02.

another crisis and puts a question over whether France will have its

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own referendum. It is frustrating to watch. The cat might leave campaign

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simplify the process of leaving the EU so much that it has raised

:22:12.:22:14.

expectations within the British public. There was a study this week

:22:15.:22:18.

saying that 90% of people wanted access to the single market, yet 70%

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of them wanted to limit immigration. Those two things are contradictory.

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You can't have both. Theresa May can continue to say she doesn't want to

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reveal her negotiating strategy, and I understand she doesn't want to

:22:34.:22:38.

publish out wish list and had people criticise it. She can only say that

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for so long before people realise that she doesn't actually have one,

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and people are going to go after her. You will see businesses in the

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next few months I think, targeting the Government in a much more

:22:52.:22:55.

focused way, particularly in light of, for instance, is ideal where a

:22:56.:23:06.

company -- video that Nissan got. Other businesses will try to get

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that. -- the deal that Nissan got. Philip Hammond is much more

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conciliatory towards business and the City of London, banks and the

:23:20.:23:24.

finance industry. He is worried about the economic picture. It seems

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to me, from what I understand speaking to business leaders, he is

:23:29.:23:32.

much more open and has a lot more dialogue with business leaders than

:23:33.:23:38.

Boris Johnson, Liam Fox, David Davis on the other side, who are taking a

:23:39.:23:42.

much more hardline stance on Brexit. The bookmakers get things right more

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often than the posters, and the odds of Marine Le Pen becoming French

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president have shortened. We could have an upset in the French

:23:54.:23:57.

elections next year. It is one of a series of referendums and elections

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that are taking place right up until next September. The Austrian voters

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will vote on a president in two weeks, on the same day as this key

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constitutional referendum in Italy. Renzi has threatened to resign if it

:24:13.:24:16.

doesn't go his way. This sense of battening down the hatches and

:24:17.:24:20.

getting through this next ten months, there will be no great leap

:24:21.:24:23.

forward for European integration, no great changes. Even in Germany, the

:24:24.:24:28.

most pro-European country, there is a sense of, let's pause for the

:24:29.:24:32.

moment. They can see there is euro scepticism across Europe, so it will

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be about getting through these few months and then towards the end of

:24:36.:24:39.

next year, looking at how we can reform the EU, how to change it to

:24:40.:24:42.

make it more relevant. That raises another question. I spoke to Herman

:24:43.:24:48.

van romp away a few weeks ago, and he said, you have no idea how low on

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the list of priorities Britain is. There are 27 countries, and my

:24:58.:25:01.

country, Ireland, are obviously hugely important. They are part of a

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group that want to keep Britain as close as possible. In Eastern

:25:05.:25:09.

Europe, it is not as significant as Russia, for example, and the

:25:10.:25:13.

Ukrainian issue, and sanctions. Eastern European countries don't do

:25:14.:25:15.

that much trade with Britain and their priority will be free

:25:16.:25:20.

movement. Trying to reach a balance between all 27, and Germany will be

:25:21.:25:24.

crucial here in a de facto leadership role. We need to focus on

:25:25.:25:33.

the divisions in the Tory party. Anna Silbury has taken an

:25:34.:25:42.

extraordinary line... Prominent Conservative backbencher. There are

:25:43.:25:51.

lots of people who feel that Theresa May's position is not sustainable

:25:52.:25:55.

and not even real, that there is deep confusion and division, even

:25:56.:26:01.

between the three Brexiteers, who often shoot off before they know

:26:02.:26:04.

what they are talking about. The three people leading the exit.

:26:05.:26:15.

Marine Le Pen is not going to be the French president, because there are

:26:16.:26:19.

two rounds. Maybe she will be in the second round. But like her

:26:20.:26:25.

illustrious father, who ended up at 20% in the second round... We

:26:26.:26:31.

believe it there. -- we will leave it there.

:26:32.:26:32.

That's it for Dateline London for this week.

:26:33.:26:34.

You can comment on the programme on Twitter @gavinesler and you will

:26:35.:26:37.

We're back next week at the same time.

:26:38.:26:40.

Please make a date with Dateline London.

:26:41.:26:43.

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