26/11/2016 Dateline London

Hello and welcome to Dateline London.

British people are enduring the worst squeeze

on living standards for 70 or perhaps 100 years.

And the "tyranny of the majority" who want Brexit, according

to at least one former British prime minister who suggests we could

My guests today are Marc Roche of Le Point and Le Soir, Eunice Goes

who is a Portuguese writer, Greg Katz of Associated Press

and Steve Richards who is a British political commentator.

We begin with the death of that great socialist icon

and revolutionary Fidel Castro, or as his revolution

decayed into corruption, should we remember him as an egotist

Some people think he was more of an egotist and a Communist, frankly.

How do you think he will be removed in the United States? I think there

are two Fidel Castro is. There is the early man, visionary,

revolutionary, he brought over 100 people in a boat. 86 of them were

killed in the first 36 hours and there were 15 left. He said, we won.

He won at the Bay of pigs, this was a phenomenally talented guy who

stayed too long and oppressed is people for 30-40 years. I spent time

there in the 90s. People were desperate to leave. They were

leaving in boats. The artistic and gay communities were leaving. The

Internet was spreading all over the world accept that there. I don't see

him as a giant narcissist, but I see him as the hardline authoritarian

leader who didn't do much over the years. People will see the footage

of the glamorous life of the revolutionary, but actually, in the

1990s, Cuba was an absolute mess that couldn't exist without Soviet

money and it was aggressive? All those things. He stayed for two

long. It's a cliche though, but his public services in Cuba were

incredible. We are going to talk about falling living standards in

British society in a minute, but we can't run all the services we've

got. Also for all the things we witnessed, it was an extraordinary

achievement to deliver those services, that health service, that

quality of education that we wouldn't be able to do with the

resources he had. I know he got money from the Soviet Union, but

even so... The war in Angola which helped destroy apartheid it South

Africa, that the exportation of Cuban doctors all over the place.

You would meet them in the strangest places in Latin America, Portuguese

colonies, elsewhere. The Cuban legacy in Angola is still visible.

People talk about the influence of Cuba in Angola, the economic aid,

the doctors, but he has been in power for so long. He was an

irritant, how could the leader of a tiny island be such an irritant on

the big superpower of the West, and it is quite incredible how he

achieved that. Of course, he'd repressed a lot of his citizens and

there was a lot of hunger and economic deprivation. But there was

access to health care and a great education system too. If we look at

other countries in Latin America, it wasn't the most repressive Regine.

What happened in Chile, Guatemala, Argentina, during the 1970s-80s, and

even after the 90s, the things were absolutely horrendous. And what

Fidel Castro did in Cuba was very timid compared to what we saw with

the Regine 's in Chile in the 1970s. The French love that sort of figure.

He's a tree revolutionary, he wants to export the revolution. He was on

the communist left. But, I think what we forget is that Cuba was hit

with American sanctions which makes it obligatory for them to turn to

the Soviet Union, and they've never really managed to recover from the

strict sanctions. Today, the record isn't great because the only place

he managed to export his revolution was Venezuelan, which has broken

down and is a failed state. I think Cuba recently is turning a bit like

what it was like before 1959... Because of tourism? Tourism,

prostitution, people trying to survive by any means. You must have

seen some of that? Even in the 90s? I had the pleasure of covering that

region for a long time, Latin America. One of the problems in

trying to judge Fidel Castro is that you can't point to an island that is

doing well. There's no evidence of driving, up right, forward moving

Caribbean islands. I would say that the education and health care in

Cuba that the poor people received hasn't spread to the rest of those

regions. Well let's move on to our next topic.

The squeeze on living standards is biting in Britain with a decade

But we have also heard about growth, consumer spending, low unemployment

so how good or bad is the condition of the UK economy, and how important

could all this be politically for Theresa May's government,

and how do we compare with other European countries?

It was very stark when you get authoritative economists, the ones

people go to, who essentially state is going to continue to be very bad.

I thought it was more extraordinary that we've clocked what happened in

the UK this week. You've had the British Chancellor, albeit the

message from this independent Office for Budget Responsibility, saying

that because of Brexit, the growth forecasts is down over five years by

more than 2%. The cost in terms of the economy is billions and billions

of pounds. And then adding by implication, of course, we are going

to try and carry on with Brexit can make the best of it. And you have

this independent bodies confirming that there has been falling living

standards over a decade and projecting that to continue, and

putting it in the concept -- context of Brexit. So we're in an odd

situation with a Chancellor who backed remain, a Prime Minister who

backed Remain, albeit quietly, expressing and articulating these

figures of gloom, and saying of course, now we are heading for

Brexit. You could say the figures of gloom in the past, looking back at

what has happened in 2008, that's one of the reason people voted for

breast-fed -- Brexit. I will be looking at things as, they were very

bad, we've been undercut by foreign workers. They have voted to get out

of the EU? I think you've summed up what has happened in the referendum.

Those were untidily understandable motives where people voted to leave.

However, if I can see it, this is also heated... They did that against

the advice of all the independent, authoritative bodies in the

referendum, some of which had no axe to grind in this European debate. I

say we are going to lose billions and billions of pounds over the next

three years. Well it seems that people have had enough of experts!

France's economy isn't going very well. Francois Hollande is the least

pillar present I can -- popular president that I can remember. It's

the financial crisis of 2008 which has made Hegglin middle classes

poorer which a new phenomenon, and the rich, rich. The only way to get

out of its is to tax the rich. Retrain all this manpower who are

losing their jobs. Not just blue-collar, but white-collar too.

In a few years' time being a taxi driver might not be unemployable

jobs? I think that you need a bit of protection. It's the political and

economic decisions taken after the global financial crisis and a huge

turn towards austerity. So, the solution is found to deal with that

has meant deficit, which is a huge comic huge problem and we can only

curate with massive public spending cuts and the European and British

economies are paying the price for those terrible, terrible economic

choices. I have to put it to you that the Portuguese economy has paid

a terrible price for being in the euro. I think the euro was a

terrible, terrible idea. One of the worst ideas that European leaders

have ever had. In particular, because the economic policies by

which the monetary union is underpinned, they are wrong. They

are for a minimal state, the small state, the states where people are

not really spending, so that inflation had to be kept low. There

has been too much focus in trying to control inflation... The euro has

been a success! It hasn't! It has ruined southern Europe. Greece?

Greece 's... Italy is a mess! No... The euro is the greatest, most

marvellous project. All these patterns explain trumping your

country, and leftward mu in Portugal and the rise of the rights in all

kinds of manifestations. And it explains Brexit, so there is a

pattern forming here. You were right to summarise how Brexit happen. But

what happens now with the... What we call in? Jams. Just about managing.

It was explicitly put in the context of Brexit that they would be an

additional, hefty cost, because of the nightmare of navigating Brexit.

So, there is that additional columns text. -- context. If we look at the

Clinton years, they were good years at -- economically, but they were

pretty terrible and summoned the end of the middle class in America? Job

stability was lost, there was a loss in all of the things we take for

granted when I grew up, but I want to get backs -- back to Brexit,

you've got the Prime Minister saying it's going to be dreadful but we are

still going to go through with it. At what point will they west bar,

maybe we won't? Well, let's talk about the Prime Minister of Malta.

The Prime Minister of Malta told us this week that the European Union

is in no mood to make a cosy deal with Britain over Brexit

and any agreement could be rejected by the European Parliament.

Plus the former British Prime Minister John Major was quoted

as pointing out that the 48% of British people who did not vote

Would the result be exactly the same?

People are so fed up there might be a second referendum. But it seems

unlikely? I find it extremely unlikely. I think it would be

explosive if the Government decided to do a second referendum. I think

people would be extremely mad. What can happen however, is where the MPs

support remain and the constituencies where people have

voted to remain, what they can emphasise, they really need to work

on is to negotiate the terms of Brexit, and perhaps what they need

to emphasise is membership of the single market. Access! Accessed the

single market doesn't get you very much. The City of London won't get

the deal that it once the moment, and it is a massive chunk of the

British economy, which generates a lot of revenue in the British

Treasury. So, they are powerful lobby, and the emphasis is trying to

get those passport in rights, and that won't happen without membership

of the single market which means accepting Friedman

# Freedom of movement. They are saying they aren't bluffing. There

is a hardening of Europe. The UK basically can't make up its mind.

They don't know how to do it. Every day that goes on, Europe is gaining

in the negotiation, because it's saying, you had to make up your

mind. You can't make up your mind, but we will go on. They wait be a

second referendum. We want you out. You have made up your mind. If

everyone agrees, what is keeping us in? Money! Money, because the bill,

as Steve said, is always rising, it will be a big bill because we are

demanding nothing and you are demanding everything. The worst is

in the vacuum of power, you have this clone of your Foreign

Secretary, insulting, though, at the moment, Britain, 0- Europe, one.

We've had John Major making comments, the comments from Tony

Blair. I think he means there's a vacuum in the Labour Party. He does,

in a sense of the Labour Party position on this is as incoherent

and messy, more so than the governments. But I think it's a very

clear, the UK Parliament will not be the focus of discontent over this,

because if you listen carefully to those who are calling for a

so-called soft Brexit, they all say they will vote for the article 50

that will trigger this two-year, hurtling towards exit, if it is a

hurtle. The challenge for Theresa May won't be in British Parliament,

but it will be in the EU. There's a slight fantasy in the British

Government. Even the word negotiation is deceptive. They would

be the glaciations if we were still in an threatening Brexit, but we are

leaving. So the EU has to facilitate that. We haven't got many cards in

the UK to play, it seems to me. I think she'll have an easier time in

Parliament than many expect. What about Angus Robertson from the SNP?

The most coherent force is the SNP. Disciplined, a good message in a new

Labour way. Coherent on the European Union, not entirely, but they speak

with one voice. They still want us to be in and they can do it with

confidence because Scotland voted to stay in. In fairness, in Parliament

it's harder when a lot of their voters voted out, so it's more

complicated for the Labour Party, but if you look for a coherent voice

on a range of issues, you would turn to the SNP, the party who don't want

to be in the Westminster Parliament. That's one of the many mad things

going on in British politics! Well, obviously, nothing mad is going on

in America! How do you view this now? Everything is up for grabs. We

don't know quite what Donald Trump will do what our relationship will

be with him. It could be quite warm. He does seem to be quite an

Anglophile. I heard Nigel Farage was taking over. Maybe he will be the

ambassador to the new. Who knows? Drum has made things more clear in

the last seven days. His cabinet choices are moving towards a very

hard right. To a strong Republican, conservative position and some of

the appointments are fairly radical, though he is showing his hand a good

deal, but we don't know what he would do when he will come in. He

certainly seems friendly towards Britain, and he is now saying kind

words about Nato. I don't expect a radical shake-up of Nato. I don't

expect him to go over everyone's payments in the first week. What

about the Baltic? They are very nervous there about Russia, Vladimir

Putin, and all that. That hasn't gone away. The old Cold War worries

are still there. I'm wondering if that's made an impression on him or

not yet. According to some of the major papers, he hasn't paid much

attention to the intelligence briefings, and he has declined a lot

of them and has left it to Mike pence. However I think he will

understand the importance of the Alliance. One of the interesting

things about Trump is that his victory has strengthened the resolve

of Europe to protect the European project, which is bad for Britain,

and it means that the EU won't be in a mood to give a deal to Britain

that would jeopardise the single market. I think the deal is

it is quite clear that the EU want to go with defence, political

integration, at the expense of Britain. They will be no role for

Britain. If I go to Paris now and read your paper, where would Brexit

appear on the political radar given that you got a per -- political

election coming up. I've been told by some that Brexit is quite low

down. It is. We have a presidential election and such a big one, with

Francois Hollande, and the candidate of the right has got a good chance

of being president, he is very pro-Putin, so those issues, his

attitudes to gay rights, abortions supersede Brexit and because the

British have made up their mind. We will see when it starts. But the

button is going to be pressed by the end of March? Theresa May says she

will, and I can work on the assumption that it will be. You

don't see these things as Prime Minister and find you are unable to

do it, so although there is a High Court case about Parliament having a

say in it, we must work on the assumption that article 50 will be

triggered before March next year and Parliament will vote for it if they

get the chance. I think they will negotiate a whole range of

transitional arrangements, but the Lisbon Treaty states its two years,

they need to be out before the 2020 general election, so I think yes. So

a diminished role for Parliament in the short-term, but at some point,

people in are going to see we wanted to get out but we didn't vote for

this deal. It's a diminished role because they've chosen to do that.

MPs are terrified to define a referendum result at this point, so

that is why it's going to be easy for her with article 50. Two things

might happen. This economic picture might become all wrecks it related,

because people who voted for Brexit are saying they are going to be

flourishing. The OBR has admitted they have done this in a foggy

atmosphere, but then they have added that the uncertainty is caused by

Brexit, so it is still Brexit- related. If inflation takes off in

the next year because of the falling pound, and people go back to their

constituencies, some people will blame Brexit and others will blame a

lack of it because we have got on with it. As you say, it's the

disorganisation and the failure of the Government to do that. That

could produce an early general election, or even in the

Conservative Party, people will take those two different views. They

already do. Parliament will move centrestage at the end of this

process. She will have a massive task managing that party. At the

moment the focus is on the pro-European rebels on her side. I

suspect the hard Brexit is will become harder to manage at the end

of this. Another problem is that the technical way of getting out... That

is a big challenge. And the EU in its own right are clueless because

it's never been tried. It is new for everyone. No one knows how to do it.

It is possible the EU could see no? It seems unlikely. I think it's

unlikely that they will, to say no to Brexit... On that happy note of

total confusion we will leave it there.

That's it for Dateline London for this week.

We're back next week at the same time.

You can of course comment on the programme on Twitter @gavinesler.