31/12/2016 Dateline London

Hello, and welcome to Dateline London's look ahead to 2017.

Britain will move calmly towards Brexit, the European Union

will solve all its problems with migration, unemployment

and insolvent banks, Donald Trump will begin a glorious

four years as President, the Middle East will finally be

Back in the real world, let's hear what our expert panel think.

I'm joined by Stryker McGuire of Bloomberg Markets,

Abdel Bari Atwan who is a writer and broadcaster on Arab affairs,

Agnes Poirier of Marianne, and Steve Richards who is

Britain first, to coin a phrase, and we can all predict that Article

50 will indeed be invoked by March, beginning the formal process

But where will Brexit, and indeed the EU, be by the end of 2017?

With political change in France and Italy,

I think 2017 will be much more difficult than this artificial

period we've been living through prior to the

All kinds of things have been read into what has happened

"The UK economy has been better than expected."

And so far, the focus has been on the British position.

In 2017, we are going to get real, because we will hear

And when that becomes clear, I think the dynamic of the internal

politics of the Conservative Party, the position of other MPs

in the House of Commons, Scotland, will become 100 times more

complicated than the position at the end of 2016.

So I think Brexit in 2017 is going to become very,

very difficult for Theresa May in particular, and the

Can I make a prediction about 2017, which I rarely do, which is that

Brexit will be top of the news agenda in Britain, and all

It will be one of the things, but the French election

The German election in Germany, the Italian banks disaster...

It might come a close second, I think, after all the elections

taking place in Germany, Italy and France.

But I agree with Steve, I think 2016 might have been

Hell will break loose in 2017, just because it's going to become

real from the end of March, when the famous Article

Because, so far, we've been discussing Brexit,

but just discussing it to say there's nothing to discuss.

Predictions in 2016, except 2017 is the real thing.

However, I'm not sure that the shock of reality will do

much for the Tories, or for Theresa May,

Would you agree that the core of this is not just what political

uncertainty there may be in Britain about Scotland, and how

But the political uncertainty in Europe is vast, and that the EU

itself, never mind Brexit, the EU in a year's time could be

On the other hand, the devil is in the detail.

If you start looking, which I have done, I urge everyone

to look into the details of trade deals.

This is what civil servants will do throughout Europe and Britain,

Because the EU has to approve every single change of quarter that

It looks to me very possible that in two years' time,

Britain will have no trade deal or agreement with the EU,

and they will be somewhere in the wilderness.

Some people think that's actually certain, because you can't negotiate

a trade deal with the EU when you are a member of the EU,

so you have to be out of it, and it will take two years

You can start negotiating a sort of road map, or you can start talks

Everything's possible in diplomacy, I suppose.

Where do you think we are going to be on Brexit in a year's time,

I just think it's going to get worse.

We are, as Steve says, we are in this strange

period of complacency, even smugness, on the part

of Brexiteers, who justifiably point out that many of the Remainers'

economic arguments or predictions before June 23rd

Which is true, but don't let that deceive you, it will kick in.

You even hear it anecdotally, people saying, this is going to be

a good Christmas but then we'll have to start tightening our belts.

And we are going to get inflation, growth is going to slow.

Is it going to go into recession at some point, who knows?

I believe 2017 will be the year of the preparation the divorce,

and I believe it will be a very painful divorce between

The lawyers will come, and it will be very,

It wouldn't be an easy landing for Theresa May.

It will be a very, very hard time ahead.

The people who actually initiated or supported Brexit disappeared.

We don't see them any more talking or arguing.

So, I think Britain will face huge difficulties to get any sort

of privileges from Europe in the coming two years.

I think free trade, which Britain is looking for,

the deal they are hoping for to compensate for the losses

of Brexit, I think it will be extremely difficult for them.

Europe are looking for a quick exit of the UK from the EU.

Isn't the counterargument to you gloom mongers that at some

point reality will indeed set in, and you've got to make it work?

Britain isn't going to be towed out into the Atlantic,

Europe isn't going to go away, we'll still want to trade with each

other, so somehow we've got to reach a deal.

And there is another argument which is that the crisis will not be

will not be in the UK, but will be in the rest

With the security threat which became a huge issue

again at the end of 2016, the elections in other countries

There's no point for example Theresa May negotiating

with President Hollande, we know he will not be there.

So it could be that there is a sort of wider identity crisis

for the European Union, which overrides Britain,

which will be seen as ahead of the times in getting out

I think that is unlikely in the sense that in the UK

we are always predicting that the European Union in one form

"The euro can't survive," so far it has, and so on.

So I think it's unlikely, but it's possible that the big crisis of 2017

is within the European Union, and Britain is just getting

on with it on the sidelines, which is a safer place to be.

I think it's more likely that the negotiations

will be a dominant theme, certainly in Britain,

Yeah, and can we add to shift the focus to Britain,

I think domestically in Britain, I see the Brexit

Because, I've seen it in Britain, Brexit has separated families.

Children and parents and grandparents.

It's the first time I've seen this, and I've been

Also, there is this "whose side are you on?

If you don't share my Brexit conviction you are

That's what I call Brexit Inquisition, and I think

It's not going to be very good for the British people.

That's what happened in Scotland as well.

A referendum that was meant to solve and resolve an issue,

divided families, friends, and didn't resolve it.

At New Year's parties you had to be very careful what you said

Donald Trump inherits the presidency of the United States,

and also a nation in which more voters voted against

A nation divided geographically, politically, culturally

Can he pull America together in 2017?

Will he surprise us by using his entry level

position in politics to, as he puts it, "make

This is the year, 2017, when the slogans have to become

Well, the answer to all those questions is probably "no".

But, having said that, you can't make anything great in a year.

When did America cease being great, is one of the questions

You can't unite a country any year, either.

What probably will happen, which is going to appall people

who are appalled by Trump, is that for a short period of time,

he's going to pour a lot of money into the country.

It's going to be at a huge cost later on, but he's going to cut

taxes, and he's going to pour $1 trillion at least

We see this in other countries as well.

So there could be this sort of bubble, and that is going to,

again, that will not heal the divisions, however.

The people on the other side will say, yes,

but what is going to happen in the future?

People outside of the United States are really waiting for him to fail.

And they are appalled by what is going on.

Somebody was telling me yesterday, it looks like Kazakhstan,

where you have the President installing his relatives,

and his daughter moving into where the First Lady used

Billionaires on the Cabinet, where there's never been a billionaire.

I thought that was quite striking that there's never been

Not that that means anything, but it's interesting.

How do you think 2017 could shape up?

There are those who think both Houses of Congress are Republican,

there's a chance to make a difference on the Supreme

Court, and you've got a Republican President.

You've got two years, because that's the next mid-term elections.

Two years to prove that Republicans running everything can do so to make

America great again, whatever that means.

Well, great again, I mean, great again is one thing.

I agree with you that there might be a temporary economic relief,

just because he's going to inject so much money.

I think 2016 showed that we all look up to America in some way.

We've done that for 200 years, probably.

And, this was the end of something, great.

So for Trump, I don't think Trump will make America great again.

I think "great" to some people implies the role of a superpower.

If anything, the United States is turning inwards.

Look at enemies who have been made already.

How is 2017 being seen in the Middle East in reference

to Donald Trump, what difference will he make?

I have a cynical feeling that Donald Trump could create another

sheikdom in the United States, to be honest.

Because if you look at his Cabinet, it is either

generals or ex-generals, and billionaires or businessmen.

We need just the headgear, that's all!

The problem is, we are extremely confused in the Middle East.

He signalled to the left and turned to the right.

We don't know actually what his intention is.

He said he wants to make America great, but he is,

if you look at him, he is supporting or following Vladimir Putin's

policies on the Middle East and other parts of the world.

So where is that independent American President here?

The other thing is, I believe this man's foreign policy in particular

could be based on business deals, not political deals.

He will look at things from the eyes of a businessman,

a billionaire, not from the eyes of ordinary people.

About the rift in the United States, I believe this rift will widen,

I don't believe it will shrink, next year or the year after.

I think we are dealing with absolutely new phenomena

I am worried, I am worried because I cannot predict.

OK, the Middle East is the most unpredictable area in the world,

but also, now, America is an unpredictable quantity.

What is he going to do with China, to phone the Taiwanese President

and talk to him, even before he took office?

It's interesting how tentative everybody is about this,

we can't be certain about anything in 2017, but we are all very

tentative about what a Trump presidency might mean.

All the American commentators are very tentative too.

Yeah, but I think what is interesting is the only policy

he mentioned when he made his brief victory statement the following day

after he was elected, was this focus on capital spending.

It was the one policy element he included in the speech.

This is fascinating on lots of levels.

One, if it's true, if he does it, he will be much more Keynesian

than the former Shadow Chancellor here, now Britain's

In property, he knows about debt financing, doesn't he?

The other thing is, you mention this is an all-Republican

ticket in Washington, but a lot of the Republicans

in Washington are small state, small government Republicans.

Here is a President planning to spend big.

Although I think there could be tensions within the Republican elite

so-called, at a point of their total dominance.

I think the other areas are completely uncertain,

As you say, they certainly need that investment, as the UK does.

Whether he will or not is an interesting question.

It's a funny kind of conservatism, isn't it?

It's not conservatism as anyone would understand it.

Progressive economists have for years been saying "we need

stimulus, we need stimulus, we need stimulus."

Now, people like Paul Krugman are saying, "well, yes,

Trump is talking about stimulus, but it's the wrong kind."

That it's not going to translate into stimulus,

because tax breaks to really, really wealthy people,

that doesn't mean they're going to spend more,

it means they're going to save more, which doesn't help.

But you know, Marine Le Pen's economic policies is

It's about big infrastructure investment.

It's Keynesian, but it's also national socialist.

But that's why many working people in France will vote

for Marine Le Pen, and it's also why people like Marine Le Pen,

Donald Trump and others, Ukip in this country,

Of course, because the left has stopped doing it.

So, somebody's taking the flag of Keynesian policies.

When Trump was elected, some people said, he's going to be

LAUGHTER In 2017, Bari, the Middle East we touched on,

but specifically, we've seen the fall of Aleppo in 2016.

In 2017, is the war in Syria going to be over, do you think?

The talk about removing him from power is eroding completely now.

Turkey, which is a major player in the Middle East, now is actually

And also towards Assad in the later stages.

They realised that they were wrong in the last six years, fighting,

or concentrating on toppling Assad, and it didn't work.

So, I can see some sort of formula coming this year, 2017.

Yesterday, there was a meeting between the three foreign

ministers of Turkey, Russia and Iran.

They are working on some sort of formula.

This formula is to create a new momentum for negotiations

between the Syrian regime and the opposition.

So, we can see some sort of stability here.

But the problem is, Islamic State, that major danger, is still there.

The war against Mosul, to remove them out completely from Mosul,

There is also Raqqa, which is still in Syria,

and there are plans to evacuate to root out Islamic State from it.

Until now, there is no concrete plans to attack them,

simply because they proved to be a very, very hard nut to crack.

We've got a few minutes left, maybe time for some predictions.

Will there be a general election in 2017?

Prediction there won't be a general election, Theresa May hasn't got

a cause to justify a general election, because Parliament

So, she said there won't be, and what she says tends to be pretty

close to what she does, so there won't be

And it will be a year dominated, as ever, by Europe, and its impact

on the internal politics both of the governing Conservative Party,

and indeed the confused opposition Labour Party.

Her difficulty is she's not ever going to please everybody.

There are those who don't want Brexit to happen,

there are some who want Brexit to happen tomorrow, and to be

Whatever deal she comes up with, she can't keep everybody happy,

It's going to be very difficult for her.

I had some sympathy for her, because she has inherited

an impossible position, whereby exactly that.

And it's not just that she can't deliver for the Remainers

or the Brexiteers, but there are different forms of Brexit

By definition she can't please all of them.

Because in the UK, Europe is such an emotive issue,

MPs are feeling neurotic and highly charged, a lot of the Brexit MPs

fear this dream they've had will be somehow stolen from them

And equally, there are Remainers who are so convinced this is heading

towards a cliff edge, they wonder why she won't stop it.

And somehow she's got to deal with this, and it

And in France, how about Francois Fillon becoming

But the important thing here is not Francois Fillon,

but that Marine Le Pen is not going to become President.

Or perhaps a hope first and a prediction, because we know

And it's also, I think, the end of the French left,

I predict, whoever it is, the French left candidate will clock

I think they are in the wilderness for the next-generation.

That's true pretty much across western Europe,

Now, I don't know where you're going to go with this!

LAUGHTER I'm just going to cough and pass it back!

What we learned this year is to expect the worst,

Next year it's going to be the same thing all over again.

In the United States, people are going to just be amazed,

I think, over and over again by what's happening in Washington.

Outside of the United States, people are going to be

looking at what's going on, and they are going to be astounded

It's going to be unpredictable, as you said, Bari.

That unpredictability is where we are these days.

Maybe one thing one can predict is that America

has thrived, despite rather than because of anybody

In other words, there is a genius within the American people,

300 million of them, to get things done.

It's not irrelevant, who's running the country,

And, at some point, whatever people feel is wrong now,

may well be righted in part down the road.

I think we are looking well beyond 2017 for that to happen.

It's not going to fall apart in 2017.

No, although there is a movement to do so!

LAUGHTER We will watch that movement.

Gavin, I cannot give you an optimistic prediction when it

comes to the Middle East, unfortunately.

I believe the bloodshed could continue.

Now Russia has the upper hand in that part of the world,

I believe, personally, that Islamic State, Isis,

Unfortunately it is like a wounded tiger, now.

They are hitting here, hitting there.

They could actually try to prove they are still alive and kicking

by carrying out a lot of terrorist attacks,

probably in the Middle East itself, but also in Europe.

It is a very, very frightening year, when it comes to the Middle East.

The problem is it will flow to the sides of the Middle East.

But at least in Syria there is some progress, here.

It could be we see less bloodshed in Syria in 2017.

But, as I said, Islamic State is a monster, a huge monster.

They managed for the last two or three years to

We can see what happened in Germany, they declared responsibility

for the attack on the Christmas market, and also they declared

It seems, unfortunately, we will see a lot of terrorist acts

somewhere in Europe, but also in the Middle East.

It is sad to say that, but this is what we can

see, OK, what I can see in my crystal ball.

Well, in that case, I think we will leave 2016 behind

That's it for Dateline London's look ahead to 2017.

You can contact the programme on Twitter @GavinEsler,

and you can argue with our guests, if that's the way you want to go.

We are back next week at the same time, please make a date

The good news is the fog isn't quite as dense, widespread or long-lasting

as it has been recently.