15/04/2017 Dateline London


15/04/2017

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This week we learnt three things from President Trump.

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That he is prepared to wield a global stick, to be precise

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the 'mother of all sticks', that Nato isn't obsolete,

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and that the United States needs to condemn China a little less

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and hug it a little more, not least to help deal with a little

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And, after this weekend's massive show of military might by Pyongyang

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and that regime's bellicose posturing, how should we interpret

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President Trump's words: "the problem will be taken care of"?

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With me to help dissect Donald Trump's thinking and, later,

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to talk about another President, Mr Erdogan of Turkey, are:

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Abdel Bari Atwan, who writes on Arab affairs.

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Henry Chu, who's international editor of Variety magazine.

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The political commentator Yasmin Alibhai-Brown.

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And the Russian broadcaster Alexander Nekrassov.

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What an extraordinary weekend. Henry, what is the normal trump

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doctrine of foreign policy? I don't think any of us knows if there is

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any coherent policy going on, it cannot be expressed in 140

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characters. That is how this man governs. He will say in a news

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conference that Russia US relations are at an all-time low, then tweets

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that there will be everlasting peace. He told us health care would

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be replaced by something great. We cannot divine anything from the

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policy of the last week or so. I think his own attention span is

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actually fairly limited. He flip-flops, although he would call

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it a reversal. He is also going to be tied in times of improving

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relations with Russia by the domestic political scene in the US.

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We have people in our legislature in Congress and Senate who are on both

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sides of the aisle, quite implacably opposed to Russia, or feel this is a

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destabilising force. There are also his own woes of being investigated,

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people in his administration being too closely tied to Russia before

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entering and during the election campaign. He has to tread carefully.

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As we have seen, it is impossible to actually figure out what an

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articulated policy from him is because he does not speak that way.

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What are they saying in Moscow after Rex Tillerson 's visit, after all

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these other events, weapons, Syria, concerns about North Korea? What are

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they saying about trump? How do they perceive him? First of all, I think

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trump is sounding erratic. He inherited a mess from Obama. Let's

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put it this way. Obama did not deal with Syria. He did not deal with

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North Korea. He has forgotten about that. He was more preoccupied with

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sending drones. In Russia, the understanding is that tramples under

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huge pressure in America from all over the place. For his comments

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about Russia during the election campaign. There is a bit of sympathy

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for him, almost? Sympathy on the one hand, on the other hand, he did make

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some kind of statements. I don't think the Russians realise that it

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is not going to be a friendship. Love and kisses, and so on. He has

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stuff to deal with because he is unpredictable. That is true. -- he

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is tough to deal with. President Putin saw him, there was some debate

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over the weekend over whether he would. Jasmine, do you have an idea

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in your mind of what Trump was trying to achieve? No. What is so

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confusing is that with the Syrian bomb, so many of us, millions,

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billions, felt this carbuncle of Syria over seven years. Growing and

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growing on the face of the Earth. In a way, you woke up to this and felt

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the boil had been advanced. We felt this temporary relief. -- the boil

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had been lanced. But Henry is right, he is a maverick. At the moment it

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feels he is playing some kind of computer game, getting a real thrill

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out of the big bangs and flashes. On the other hand, I think Putin, in my

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view, is one of the most calculating and problematic leaders we have

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today. Particularly... And he's been around a long time, 17 years. He is

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smarter than Trump in some ways. Part of me also worries, and

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apologies if this sounds mad. But this investigation into the Trump

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election and the relationship between Russia and Trump's campaign

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team, is being seriously investigated. I am wondering whether

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there is this plot within a plot within a plot to make us think now

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that there won't be any hugs and kisses. I'm very confused about

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where we are going. Trump is a maverick and that to me is the

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biggest enjoyable. The Syria conundrum which is at the heart of

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this debate. -- the biggest danger. Unlike President Obama, Trump

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dropped a bomb and retaliated. In terms of his approach to Syria, will

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we now see something of a sustained engagement? Will that do anything to

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make the peace talks in Geneva go anywhere? I believe these Tomahawk

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missile strikes killed completely the peace process in Syria. I cannot

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see this peace process reignited after these Tomahawk missiles.

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Secondly, I believe that coordination between Russia and the

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US is coming back after the Foreign Secretary went to Moscow. Rex

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Tillerson? Yes. I believe there are secret agreements. They told us they

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were disagreeing, but in fact, some of this is theatre. Putin received

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Rex Tillerson. They reignited their coordination, military coordination

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and cooperation between the two superpower in Syria. Should that be

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cause for optimism? At this point only the tiniest steps are being

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taken and can be considered improvements. We do not want

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deterioration and even at the height of the Cold War we had summits

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between residents and ways to try to ameliorate the relationship. I think

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this is a good thing, you do want engagement, you don't want a freeze

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on relations. But I don't hold out any great optimism that these two

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powers are actually coming together or even really making deals. If they

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do come together it reminds me of the First World War, where they

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coughed up a whole continent remember, between them. If they

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think they can carve up the world between them, it's not good news for

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the world. -- carved up a whole continent. To ignite a war between

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the two superpowers, what are we achieving here? I believe

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coordination is the best way. They manage to reach some sort of

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understanding. That is why President Putin accepted the idea of meeting

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to listen, and I believe what we have seen is completely different,

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what they agreed upon. -- of meeting Rex Tillerson. The Tomahawk missiles

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did not solve any problems but created more. It did not actually

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topple Bashar al-Assad of Syria. It didn't change much. I'm surprised

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some people are saying the American policy toward Syria has changed. It

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has not. It is exactly the same. Trump and his administration do not

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want to be involved in Syria, they are happy to see Putin deal with

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Isis in Syria. In addition to Syria and Afghanistan we had the attack

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this week, US special forces also had issues in Yemen in the early

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days of his presidency. Trump is also attempting a bit of what used

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to be called gunboat diplomacy. The problem of Pyongyang has,

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the President admitted, forced him to re-evaluate his

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attitude to China. A currency manipulating,

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US-job destroying rival He's not the only one

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courting Beijing, though. On Friday, the Russian

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foreign ministry let it be known that Sergei Lavrov,

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the boss there had been on the telephone with Wang Yi,

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his Chinese opposite number, In terms of the North Korea problem,

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do you think both Moscow and Washington are overoptimistic about

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the amount of influence that China can bring to bear on North Korea?

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First of all I think the international community, whatever it

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is now, should hang its head in shame over North Korea. Nothing was

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done. The world was clinging to these resolutions of the Security

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Council, which don't work, just like they don't work in the

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Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Sticking to them as if this was,

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like a bible. No it's not. I think Trump, in a sense, is stirring up

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this. Suddenly China is waking up. Thinking, we need to do something.

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Russia, which has had to have some really active policy, is waking up

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as well. In a sense it is dangerous, what they are doing, but it has

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woken up the world to the problem. Something needs to be done. It

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isn't. I think one of the most terrible things that has happened is

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the way the UN has been sidelined, and actually the reason it does not

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work well is because members of the Security Council, the big thugs of

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the Security Council, refused to do the moral thing and they have

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refused it over Israel and refused it over Syria. The point is this: I

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am really worried that we are talking here in terms of the big

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powers now. OK, China, the ones who have the weaponry. Superpowers.

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Actually, what happens then to the Muslim countries and the gorilla

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warfare that is actually now a global guerrilla warfare? Have they

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not learned anything from Vietnam's, that big bombs and big politics do

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not destroy a determined gorilla army? I am really surprised by Trump

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and these problems, he is a warmonger. His popularity is going

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down in his own country. He is changing his mind every day. He is

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not consistent at all. He has no strategy, nothing, but to throw

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bombs. He throws missiles, Syria, the failed state, the mother of all

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bombs in Afghanistan. Those people who cannot respond. We do not know

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how many civilians we have killed. Do we think that North Korea could

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respond? That's the problem. I wish North Korea would respond. No! We

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have had enough of this warmongering to be honest. Why Trump is going

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there and threatening this and that, throwing bombs at Muslim people,

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innocent people, killing them simply because he wants to show he is

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strong enough. We don't want this warmongering. We want peace and

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Obama was absolutely correct in his policy. When it comes to North Korea

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lets not pretend they are not warmongering as well. They are not

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an innocent party. Do they have the capacity to deliver on the threat?

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In America, Donald Trump doors. North Korea is building up its

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arsenal and it is certainly capable of hitting American allies,

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particularly soul and Japan. It is cause for concern. This maverick

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quality of Donald Trump, his unpredictable of is reaping good

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results because it keeps the world its toes. I'm not saying I

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subscribed to that, but there is this line of thought. The problem is

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you have two mavericks now, Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump. When you

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have two in this expose of environment, I'm afraid well what

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can go wrong. And you've got Putin, and remember, Pakistan now has a

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nuclear weapon. India does too. We will be dead. Israel as well! One of

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the things that really frightens me is because of this posturing and

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this maverick dropping bombs, and Russia in Syria, and piranha's role

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as well, we will get into a third World War without even naming it. --

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Iran that. You still believe they provide the stability? Of course. I

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don't understand this call for getting rid of them. The UN did

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nothing about North Korea for decades. In terms of now... In any

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part of the world. Let's not forget, that this North Korean so-called

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military potential is a village. Nobody is going to fight for Kim

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Jong-un in North Korea. If they realise that the threat is real of

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an attack, they will run. How serious is the suggestion that China

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can rein in North Korea? This is the other interesting point. Moscow and

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Washington seemed to assume that, London suddenly thinks China has

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that degree of employees. Does it? I think it has a certain amount of

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luggage. The historic ties between China and North Korea are described

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in the Beijing has lips and teeth. Its actual ability now, especially

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with Kim Jong-un who was a lot more unstable than his grandfather, has,

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gated things. You have Donald Trump being schooled by the Chinese

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president after ten minutes, realising it is not just a matter of

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China ordering North Korea what to do. China does have power when it

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comes to oil, that is how North Korea keeps its economy going. It is

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not without luggage but you think China can actually dictate to North

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Korea is a mistake. I'm not a big fan of the way China is in terms of

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freedom and so on, but is it not good that China is coming across as

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the wise old man of this world? It is not going in for this histrionic

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politics. Which will take us to the edge. We need wise men. We need

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people... And women! We need wise leaders. Women and men, whoever. We

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don't need warmongering. We don't need that. But these wise men did

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not do anything with North Korea for decades. That is the problem.

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Something has to be done. There is one problem nobody talks about,

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South Korea. They are provoking North Korea are all the time. Nobody

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talks about this at all. They have all these manoeuvres on the borders,

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those propaganda targeted at North Korea. South Korea is a strange

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country, by the way. It's not this democracy. Maybe that's one for

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another week. In Ankara this weekend,

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another President is hoping voters Recep Tayyip Erdogan has called

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a referendum on whether he should become an executive president,

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abolishing the post of Prime Minister and,

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say his critics, removing existing Perhaps surprisingly in a country

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where he's cowed the opposition, locked up many critics,

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including journalists, and has been Turkey's dominant

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political figure for more than a decade, polls suggest

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the result will be close. Is there a danger he could actually

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be trumped, that he could lose this boat? It seems we will have more

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than one Trump! To be honest. -- this vote. This man is actually

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trying to revive the Ottoman Empire legacy. He wants to be a new sultan.

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He deposed and he sacked everybody who is opposing him. 100,000,

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140,000 people sacked from their jobs under the pretext of martial

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law. The military coup. 50,000 people arrested. Extraordinary

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figures. 48,000 arrested. Now, he divided the country, the country is

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completely divided. He is surrounded by enemies. All over, everybody

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around Turkey is the enemy of Turkey. Iran, Syria, Greece.

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Romania, Bulgaria. Even Russia are not really at ease with him now

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because of him... Even the economy of this country, the Erdogan legacy,

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he was elected simply because he presented himself as a moderate

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Muslim. A democratic man. A very progressive development, good

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economy. Now if you look at the situation, he is not democratic, he

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is arresting journalists in Mozambique, for example, again the

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economy is going down. Almost 50% of its value. I would like to speak. My

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turn to speak. Let me finish. I believe, honestly, we do not know

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what will happen on this referendum. He is already sacking ministers. My

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turn! I think we have to go back. And look at some of the things and

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try and understand, one thing is we always used to say in Africa, users

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lead democracy to get elected. Now we see it happens everywhere.

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Everywhere. The thing is, when Turkey was a secular democracy, a

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Muslim country with a secular constitution, it had all these very

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well-placed safety nets, freedoms, it's one that path went towards the

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Islamic citation of Turkey. I am a Muslim, I do not want the Islam

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Association of countries like Turkey. We are using religion to

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divide people. The so-called Islamists, not Islamists but Muslim

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state. It's a terrible thing, taking away critics and journalists. If EU

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had accepted Turkey into the EU club, I think ten years ago, when

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Obama was asking them, we might be in a different place. Does the

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prospect of a sultan in Ankara worry Washington? Which is why we haven't

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seen such a strong condemnation out of the Trump administration or the

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Obama Administration to this point. Turkey is a member of Nato and has

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been able walk for the US. This regrettable... They have stayed out

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of the referendum, they have not made any intimations as to whether

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they think it is a good idea or bad idea. I think they will just let

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that one run as it will. What I am afraid of and what we are seeing in

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Turkey is indeed somebody who is centralising all power in himself,

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sees enemies around every corner, and the things he was elected to do

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- foremost, to develop the economy- have gone sour. We have a president

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who is acting like an executive president already. Let's not pretend

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he does not hold the power. Russia did its best to have good relations

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with Turkey. Even after they shot down Russian planes, even after that

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outrageous, I would say, murder of the Russian ambassador, Russia did

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not respond in a way I would have responded to be honest with you. Not

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yet. For the ambassador, that should -- they should have been punished.

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All the problems Erdogan has of his own making. His foreign policy is a

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disaster. Such a pivotal position, just because of geography if nothing

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else. Nato does nothing to influences policy. Does nothing,

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never said a word about the quashing of freedoms. The journalists. We are

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very critical of him. Come on. They should have sanctioned them for

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this. What he is doing, the sanctions should have been used. I

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think he will get away with anything. For a Russian to start

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talking about human rights abuses makes me laugh out loud. Why not?

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The number of prisoners in Russian prisons! Don't compare the two. That

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might be an argument for another day. In terms of is he loses, what

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difference will that make? Will that be the beginning of the end for

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Erdogan? I think he will be more aggressive and he will try to come

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back after nine months as the constitution says. He could have

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another referendum, exactly what happened when he lost the election,

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the majority of parliament, he called for another election and he

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managed to create a new alliance with nationalists. That's

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interesting. The secular side in terms of politics almost seems to

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have given up the ghost. The opposition is in disarray there.

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Which makes it all the more incredible to me that in the polls,

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it shows this referendum is close. You would think with the

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intimidation going on against the no campaign, and the fact that

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journalists have been purged, the media are completely in the hand of

:23:51.:23:54.

this administration. You would think it would show overwhelming support

:23:55.:23:59.

for his being given these powers. But secularism is such a deep part

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of Turkish life and history. People really grew up on it. To see their

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country becoming like Iran, is a terrible shock. This man will be

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there. He wants a mandate to do everything he wants. If he does not

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have this mandate, he is going to impose his will on his own people. I

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believe Turkey will be more divided, and the economy will suffer more. Is

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the solution therefore, since you say it will be a worse situation if

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he were to lose, is it better that he wins it? I can't see how that

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would be a great outcome. It wouldn't change. The man is another

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sultan, he wants to behave like that. We will know the result by the

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beginning of the week. That's it for Dateline

:25:00.:25:00.

London for this week - we're back next week

:25:01.:25:02.

at the same time. You can of course comment on the

:25:03.:25:04.

programme on Twitter @BBCShaunLey. Another update on the weather

:25:05.:25:40.

prospects for the rest of the holiday weekend.

:25:41.:25:41.

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