22/04/2017 Dateline London

Theresa May, who became Britain's Prime Minister less

than a year ago after the country voted to leave the European Union,

has called a general election - three years earlier

In Brussels, they said her shock announcement was a twist

The French have experienced quite a few plot twists

of their own as the presidential election looms into view.

With a crowded field of 11 candidates,

If so, we'll know by the end of Sunday which two will go through.

With me to discuss Britain, France and all the rest,

are: Alex Deane is a Conservative commentator, Michael Goldfarb writes

for Politico Europe, Agnes Poirier is UK editor

of Marianne in France, and Polly Toynbee is

Thanks for being back with us. Polly, we will talk a lot about

Theresa May and why she did it, but one thing all the commentators seem

to have started this election campaign in agreement on is that

this will see off Jeremy Corbyn. But he seems to be relishing the job of

underdog. Why? I think he likes elections. Big rallies are his

thing, is what is best at. It looks to me unlikely that he will leave,

even if he thoroughly thrashed. Those around him seem to be saying

he's going to stay until we get a rule change will make sure that

another core principles would take after, which would be at party

conference in September. This is very internal Labour Party stuff,

but there's every reason to think that even if he is thoroughly

crushed, he's going to stay. He may stay, and that was perhaps one of

the reasons why Theresa May might have wanted this election, to

finally lands flat boil of an opposition she doesn't like. She has

said she wants more authority, she wants a strong opposition. But we've

seen antiestablishment candidates do rather well in other parts of the

world. Is a she's running a risk of the stability she has enjoyed? Every

election has a risk and we have nearly seven weeks in which events

can come up and derail the best of plans, but all things being equal,

it looks like there wouldn't be a better time for the Prime Minister

to do this. Jeremy Corbyn has led the Labour Party without the

confidence of his own MPs for some time. He seems to lack credibility

in public as a leader. I'm trying to be fair. I think he spoke well at

his lunch. But it's too late to turn around the general lack of

confidence in him, not just in the party but in the country at large.

Is it a case of having him for another three years? I think Polly

is right, I think you'll stay. Jeremy Corbyn is not going to

suddenly be anything different. The real reason she cold it is that this

is her peak moment. She will never be as popular or successful as she

is now. She's going into the most difficult negotiations. We don't

even know who is sitting on the other side of the table, depending

on the elections in France and Germany. She's probably going to

head-on confrontation with other people in Europe and her own

backbenchers. Whatever compromise she makes, she will be trounced, so

nothing will ever be so good for her again. So that election in 2020

would have been much harder to win. Indeed, she would have come back is

probably a rotten deal and at least half the population would think it

was a rotten deal, whatever it was. Michael, you're reporting with the

people who don't know Britain. Have you explaining it? There are two

things. I have this image of someone saying to the stockbroker, when the

price gets to such and such, cell. Just a few hours after the

announcement was made, the Financial Times is running comment about how

clever this was, because on both sides, the idea of negotiating

something that is realistic both from a European perspective and a

British perspective, on Britain's detachment from the European Union

in two years is virtually impossible. What she has essentially

done is bought herself under the EU an extra few years to work at height

and tangled Britain's relationship. In that respect, she may have been

taking soundings from people in Brussels, that one way of extending

this negotiating beaded and moving that hard deadline of 2019, because

we know that in Europe, all deadlines are made to be pushed

further along. This may well have played into her decision as well.

It's surprising she didn't call for an election before, for instance,

after the astounding victory at the by-election. So it all makes sense,

she is buying more time. She has a boulevard in front of, as we say

French. Of course, the Lib Dems are probably going to win a few seats

and Labour is good to be crushed. The SNP cannot do better apart from

one more seat. And of course, she only had the mandate of 200 MPs

before now. For Brussels, is better to have a stronger British Prime

Minister, otherwise you don't know. And then also, within her own party,

she is often been taken hostage by hard Brexiteer is. Now if she can

say, you shut up, I have a mandate. Whatever she may have said publicly

and we have just take everything she says on her merits. She said seven

times she wasn't going to have an election and then she changed her

mind. We can't take anything she says at face value after that. But

in terms of one of the things you didn't talk about, about the

difficulty of selling the big city will never own party, is that part

of the calculation? I think like any Prime Minister who was elected at a

general election, she felt that lack of authority. There are times when

it's dangerous not to have an election, as Gordon Brown showed.

The other thing about her position is not only that she'll get that

sort of mandate, but also in the Brexit negotiations, she will be

able to see, not only now has been a referendum and a vote in the House

of Commons and the House of Lords, but also a popular general election.

It does improve her hand in the negotiations. That's only if she

spells out what her negotiating position is and what her red lines

are. What's really disgraceful is, we have talked about these tactics,

Gordon Brown made a mistake and she's not going to make this a

mistake. The real genuine politics are that we need an election when

she comes home with the deal, with the people can genuinely decide

weather they like the deal or weather they think it's a mistake.

This is meaningless. There is nothing new. That is nothing new

content to be decided in any manifesto. We really need one when

she has done the deal. This conversation reflects that the

biggest danger for the Prime Minister is expected management,

because unless she does extraordinarily well, then corporate

will be seen to have done better than expected. Which will give him

the space to carry on. You are managing our expectations. I

slightly disagree with poorly about putting in the manifesto what her

negotiating positions are. It's actually too early. She doesn't have

positions. I do think that having the election is not a bad thing.

Firstly because I did think... I think... I thought Gordon Brown

actually did make a mistake. Even if he had lost, you have to stand up

and show the courage. I disagree with all of you on the manifesto

point. If she doesn't put pledges in the manifesto, then she runs into a

very difficult position. What could she put in? Her red lines. My point

is, in the absence of that material in the manifesto, then the House of

Lords, which will be firmly in favour of Remain, they will be

entitled to say to her, endure a mandate at the election like this

point, so we are entitled to push back. In terms of the practicalities

of this, let's say Theresa May winds a general election, I greater risk

is it for her that people say, that was pointless. And also that she has

created a bit of space for Jeremy Corbyn, may be helped to revive the

Lib Dems, who were anti-Brexit party, who will be key to any easier

for her. Meanwhile, there are those pesky people in the House of Lords.

Could it not be her own party that says, actually, we haven't gained

very much. It's a foregone conclusion she's going to win, a

question of how much of a majority she gets. It may be that Corbin

makes some progress on being the outsider. The antiestablishment

figure. And maybe that gets a bit of a ground swell, meanwhile Lib Dems

pick up quite a bit of what they've lost last time and were all back to

where we were. When Alan Johnson stands down, and for many Labour

supporters, he represented a mist opportunity, a leader who should've

been. I think we don't play in this discussion so far what will happen

in the Labour Party. Let's assume that because of the way the system

works, there are still 150 Labour MPs, is at a reasonable assumption?

Yes. With Jeremy Corbyn, we hear the talk of purges, and I think the

centre-left will have to have a huge discussion among themselves about

where they put their faith in the future. This is never going to

happen. We're not talking about Tony Blair. He said only one of the

centre-left plan, which is to create a movement across political party

movement, which would change things. I've been there! This feels like

1981 all over again. Winners, all those people out there got bored at

the time, the centre-left broke away from the far left.

We have an electoral system that absolutely crushes any new arrival.

Look at Ukip getting 15% and no MPs. We have an outrageous electoral

system that does not allow innovation. If all the Labour MPs

are against Jeremy Corbyn, or the majority, why don't they create

something? Because they wouldn't get elected again. We did it last time.

They have to then fight in each seat Labour candidate. That puts forward.

In the short-term, it would be good for the Conservative Party. I agree

with your synopsis. The first is that many MPs who are not household

names to viewers, but Westminster people know about the moderate

supporters, the welterweights, the overall disappearing. It makes it

much harder. An awful lot want to go and has been a huge pressures inside

the party to stop them. Lows of people, particularly the older ones,

have been stopped the quite cross with certain people like Fiona

McTaggart and Alan Johnson going. We could have just hung on, they could

always have a by-election later. The snap election has protected some of

the positions of the remaining moderates a dogface reselection. And

because boundary changes are being planned. Luckily there is a

generational shift. In terms of the other aspect we've spoken about, one

is the question of the Liberal Democrats, because the Lib Dems were

in parliamentary terms all but annihilated in the last general

election. Is this going to give them potential for regeneration? It

definitely does. One of the outcomes was the near destruction of the

Liberal Democrats. I think one of the accidents of this election is

will be the revival of the Lib Dems. Not necessarily because people have

huge vegan Tim Farrell, but because the centre-left belief in Jeremy

Corbyn is so low, this would else will vote go. There's also a bit of

a Remain vote for the Lib Dems, and that's because Jeremy Corbyn was

never very convinced about Remain. There will be places like Richmond

and Sussex, where Labour voters Labour votes to the Lib Dems are the

well again. There is a lot more of a soft Tory vote, where when the

election campaign goes on and receive the relentless nature of it,

they may decide they are Remain first and Tory second. It'll be

better than they had, but it's not good to be huge. The impact will be

about those who switch from Labour to the Conservatives. In Northern

Ireland, there's the debate over the border with the Republic of Ireland

and the SNP are desperately wanting another referendum. Bloggers create

extra problems for the British government. This will be the great

crack. This will be the time when they say, Theresa May, helped by

David Cameron's appalling judgment on the referendum, hacked apart the

United Kingdom. I think it will be all over. I think the Scots will be

gone after the next referendum or the one after that. In Northern

Ireland, it's very frightening about weather we go back to the bad old

times. It's been quite cavalier of the entire Brexit campaign not to

consider the United Kingdom. I'm far more optimistic. I don't think we

will have a referendum in Scotland, but if we do, it will be lost. We

have had a comment trading easier with arrogant for a long time,

predating the EU. Michael, last word on the impact on the UK. I am

genuinely sceptical about weather a second referendum would win, but

then again, it's seven years down the line and we don't know where

their Brexit negotiations will be. But the contemporary Conservative

Party really does take Scotland for granted and that's one of the

reasons it took Gordon Brown to port David Cameron's chestnuts out of the

fire on the first referendum. I would worry it hasn't learned its

lesson and that is a real worry that Scotland will go.

The gunman who shot dead a police officer in Paris on Thursday night

may or may not have grasped the full symbolism of his murderous act.

The Champs Elysees, in sight of the Arc de Triomphe,

is one of France's best known locations, making this

a provocative challenge to the French sense of identity.

The question is whether what Francois Hollande says is "likely

to be terrorism" will affect who the French choose

Agnes, did the reactions of the leading presidential

candidates reveal much about this election?

Of course, the irony is that the attack happened at the same time

during a television debate, when it was more like speed dating, because

it was not a debate. There were two debates. They had 15 minutes each,

the 11 candidates to make a last case. They all were supposed to

bring an object to the debate. Bagshaw and tell at school.

Marine Le Pen was extremely vocal, as she always is on every subject,

obviously one radical Islamism. The thing is, the French have grown

accustomed to those attacks. There was the Louvre, there was an orderly

airport, now they are army officers or police officers. So I think the

impact will be limited on Sunday's first round. I'm not saying there

will be no impact. Perhaps on the undecided, because I third of French

voters are still undecided. Perhaps because they don't believe in the

polls any more. The polls say the first four are extremely close to

each other. I still think Marine Le Pen will face-off Macron. But there

are six possible scenarios. We should talk about the most

frightening one, which is the hard left candidates, and extreme Jeremy

Corbyn. He attends some of his rallies as a

hologram. Yes, in six different locations?

Marine Le Pen versus Heaven, I don't even want to think about it. The

attack may have something of an impact, but not on Marine Le Pen.

Those voting for her were going to vote for her anyway. I think it will

affect Fillon, because of his gravitas. People may think he's a

crook, but they cure about national security. That's what the electorate

might say, because this is a serious time and calls for people with

experience. I think it harms the exciting useful vote for the

newcomer. I was just going to say, I saw a very interesting survey today,

and I'm not big on data journalism, but this was interesting, six out of

ten French voters have changed their mind since the start of the year.

Usually, everyone knows about this election and everyone has made the

mind up regular go, but 60% of the electorate has changed. They had no

idea. That's as a result of good choices on both the right and the

left. There are more candidates, it is a genuine rainbow spectrum. You

can see why people would ship with the left. My own view is it's far

too close to call, it's all within the margin of error for those top

few. I think we had better live in fear and terror. We have seen worse

happening too often, we've seen the unexpected Brexit vote, the

appalling Transport, so let's imagine the worst and thank their

lucky stars of it doesn't happen. You're already jumping to the second

round. We don't have time for that! What it tells us about the state of

French politics, and I right in saying that in no previous election,

if this comes to pass on the second round, would there be a situation

where neither of the political grouping that have dominated French

politics since Charles de Gaulle, would that be a first?

Yes, it would be a first. What is the first is the collapse of the

Socialist party. Hamon, he was like another Jeremy Corbyn. I think he's

going to score below 10%, which couldn't happen in many memories.

When talking about similar figures for Jeremy Corbyn, since 19801935,

the same in France. So the hard left candidate enjoys that dynamic of the

collapse of the socialist party. What really matters for those

outside France, around the world but particularly in Europe, is what it

means for Europe. We're going to be negotiating position but what with?

If it's Melenchon or Marine Le Pen, this will undermine Europe

completely. If it is Melenchon or Marine Le Pen, we don't know what

will happen. Or me, one of the big things is how badly Francois

Hollande has led his party. He's been unwilling to leave the stage

early enough to let them be credible. If Jeremy Corbyn had left

the stage early enough, the Labour Party could have rebuilt. There's

probably no more important than no and there is a terrible legacy to

look up. He couldn't made it clear he wasn't going to be the candidate

early. Yes, there could have been a much stronger candidate than Hamon,

that's for sure. He's more or less faded away, is

what the opinion polls are saying. The future then is the second round.

Is it going to be a clear-cut enough result or will we still have people

saying it was only one or 2% but decided?

The turnout will be important at the second round. We now at midday her

much participation we have. If it's historically low, then Marine Le Pen

stands a lot of chances, because if it is Melenchon or Marine Le Pen,

some people will not bother go cavorting. Do you remember when

Jacques Chirac was in the last one, people on the left went to vote with

nose pegs in order to keep Le Pen out of it. We will talk about this

again after the first round is after.

That's it for Dateline London for this week -

we're back next week at the same time.

You can of course comment on the programme on Twitter @bbcshaunley.