27/05/2017 Dateline London

Hello and welcome to Dateline, I'm Jane Hill.

A warm welcome at a difficult week for many.

This week - the aftermath of the Manchester suicide

President Trump's first overseas trip, and we look at the state

of the general election camapaign here in the UK with less than two

Joining me to discuss all this are Iain Martin, a Times columnist,

the American broadcaster, Jeffrey Kofman, Thomas Kielinger

of Die Welt, and Nisreen Malik, the Sudanese writer.

A one welcome to all of you. In Manchester...

In Manchester on Monday night a pop concert by an American singer

popular with young girls ended in carnage when a 22-year-old man

born in the city blew himself up, in the foyer of the concert arena.

Children as young as eight were killed, and scores

The hunt is continuing for the people who supported Salman Abedi -

many people have been arrested in the UK and, in Libya, Abedi's

father and one of his brothers have been arrested.

Let's talk about the Libyan connection.

Nisreen, may I start with you, how was this Abedi radicalised?

How a young man can become radicalised. Talk to us about the

Libyan connection. Details of which are becoming clearer. The most

important thing to point out is it's not one thing or the other. It is

tempting for people to try and figure out what is the one hell of

an -- element that radicalised him. The Libyan angle is informative. It

tells you and exposes a family in flux, a family that has not found a

stable footing either in Libya or in Manchester. His father was an exile,

a political exile, in opposition to Colonel Gadaffi. As everyone knows,

he has maltreated and resulted in hundreds of thousands if not

millions of Libyans leaving the country during his tenure. The fact

they were here in the first place is a reflection of the fact that there

was a dictator presiding over the population in Libya. Number one. The

angle that concerns and oppressive dictatorial environment in the Arab

world and larger parts of the Middle East is a very important one and

understanding the roots of Islamic disaffection or fundamentalism. Here

in the first place because of Libya. He returned, who his father and they

themselves returns to fight with the militias that fought against Colonel

Gadaffi after the spring and then they made it back. They were back

and forth between Manchester and Libya. It shows this was a family

little bit torn, Salman Abedi spent a couple of years there and came

back and there was a stigma around him and his siblings and that Libyan

community in Manchester in the sense they were considered cultural

half-breed, not really Libyan and not really British. That is the

context he thrived in, if that makes sense. In terms of his ideological

radicalisation. A final point, very interesting that no one has picked

out, when they were arrested in Libya, his father and brother, they

were not picked up by an official police force, Libya is an state in

anarchy, they were picked up by a local militia. They do not have an

official intelligence system that can quite knit with the British and

Americans in order to pick up these people. That is the firmament within

which the Abedi family grew. That is the context as we understand it.

Surprising that you said Libya is a failed state. Yes, it is. There was

a militia force that could apprehend him. They have contacts with foreign

intelligence, what have you. It is astonishing to me that in this

country which falls apart before I write every day, that there is some

order, police and militia, that can say on foreign instigation get hold

of these to my people. We need them in our investigation of the

Manchester bombing. There is a development that you have two more

witnesses. It is being said that, you spoke of the disenfranchisement,

we hear the story of the father helping to radicalise his son, even

though he publicly denied it having happened. They must have been some

family connection from the days when he fought Colonel Gadaffi. Implanted

the simple idea in his son's mind. This is a father who took his son on

during a school holiday to take part in the Libyan civil war. Understand

that it is complex. A lot of people will see it in really quite simple

terms. This is a family that was given shelter by Britain, refugee

status, welcomed, his education was obviously paid for by the British

taxpayer. A family that then decides to shuttle backwards and forwards

between the Libyan Civil War and Manchester. If other that then

leaves two boys who are clearly a risk and no by the family to be a

risk, and leaves them at home alone. At home alone. I think people's at

reaction to it will be to accept that there is complexity but that

something has happened here which will shock a lot of British people

and people will feel that hospitality has been abused. I think

it is fair to come to that conclusion. I covered the Arab

Spring in Libya in 2011 and it would be wrong to assume the people who

went back to fight with the rebels were extremists. A lot of them were

in fact liberals from Europe and elsewhere who wanted to liberate the

country from an oppressive dictator. I do not think that adds up. I do

think that this notion of a failed state is coming back to bite us

terribly. The consequence of the Arab Spring, with but optimism, has

been abject failure and the country as you know, there is no central

Government. You look at this place, it has a map, it has the late Mike

is a country on the map, it has an ambassador at the United Nations,

but beyond that... Where is the responsibility for that? It is

interesting. It is tempting to blame Nato and David Cameron for that

campaign. I was in Libya during that period. We really believed we were

on the cusp of a massacre by Colonel Gadaffi. I have to say, in the naval

campaign that allowed the rebels to ultimately triumph, it seemed at the

time, in fairness, to have been a sensible one. We were going to seem

another Rwanda. If something had happened. I think it was a fair

assumption to think that. The problem was that there was no after

plan that was effective. Yes, the rebels took hold in the country

literally had no infrastructure, that was run by mafias. Regional

militias. Here's we are. The problem is vacuumed. There are several

publicans. What he is trying to say is there, when there is a vacuum of

authority, whether it is Iraq after the war or in Libya after Colonel

Gadaffi collapses, or in Yemen now with the conflict with the Saudis,

was there is a vacuum of authority, you have the potential to get all

these fragments would align themselves with Al-Qaeda or Isis,

and that is the soil in which all of it grows. And Isis has moved on. In

terms of criticising the West, it cannot always be the West's fault.

We are accused of some circumstances of intervening too much and in

others not intervening at all. We could be discussing this for a long

time. Let's turn our attention is to President Trump.

President Trump carried out his first major

overseas trip this week - visiting the Middle East,

the Vatican, the Nato summit in Brussels and as we go to air,

Contrary to expectations, it appears to be a case,

A little smile on your face as I said all of that. I would take issue

with that. If you are a fox watching a little smile on your face as I

said all of that. I would take issue with that. If you are a fox watching

person, you are a fox watching person, you might think that. In

this reality TV episode of Donald Trump goes to Europe and the Middle

East, we have watched two Trumps. There was the Trump who was banquet

it and lavished on Saudi Arabia. He seemed at home and indeed himself

and avoided the issue of Human Rights in a country whose values are

contrary to America, never touched those issues, not even a nod. Ghost

is real, welcomed with literally a bear hug. -- goes to Israel. Then he

comes to Europe, the closest friends America has, the G7, and scold them.

You see this contradiction. He is the friendly guy in those countries

and he ugly American here. I do not think... It is true that has not

been a massive blunder, there are lots of great memes pen pushing the

president of Macedonia... And his own wife at one stage. Think it was

Montenegro. Great to watch his wife slapping. It is just another

instalment in the Trump reality show. He has yet again demonstrated,

telling the Israelis that he is back from the middle East, that he has no

depth whatsoever. He is who we think he is. Who had depth about the

Middle East, I ask you? Nobody had any recipe on how to solve it. He

comes and makes easy statements which have no consequence. Unlike

you, I would be prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt. We have

all critique ten in a fashion. He is a work in progress. I think he is a

work in progress. He is learning. He made a good speech after the

Manchester bombing when he referred to these jihadists as losers. That

was a felicitous phrase to make. That is part and parcel... Lots of

people said the word loser, that is not presidential, you cannot use the

word when you are at the US president. It shows he is an

effective community. I am not a fan of Trump, I and distressed by his

existence, however I would same that the trip went really quite well. You

notice that he didn't have data roaming on his phone, so there were

almost no tweets. There were no tweets. Is is the key to it? It was

almost like a work in progress. As though someone around him is

concerned about what is going on in Washington, Jared Kushner and all

the rest of it, trying to normalise it and manage this trip in a

conventional way and it kind of worked. He tried to behave himself,

because that was the Jared Kushner elephant in the room. He didn't want

to add to his problems by making gaffes. I think we are suffering

from a collective lowering of standards were Donald Trump. With

the fact that he didn't smear himself on a daily basis doesn't

mean that the Trump went well. He had enough antlers and was out of

place that he couldn't behave in a disgraceful way. These trips are

hugely well coordinated, hundreds of handlers on the Saudi state, if you

watch the footage. This was closely managed. He made blunders on body

language, he strayed off script couple of times on a couple of

speeches. He calls it dictators and scold the democratically elected

leaders. -- cosied up to dictators. I think there is a dangerous trend.

People expect him to behave scandalously and terrifically the

whole time. When there is a day when he is micromanaged so well that he

cannot put a foot out of place, people draw these conclusions and

say they think he has a work in progress. He has learned lessons.

This is a man who tells us he is a good deal maker. We know that deals

are about relationships and the ability to say, hello, Angela

Merkel, let's do something here. When you see the European leaders

and the Canadian leaders avoiding him, they are holding their noses,

grinding their teeth, you can see it. Are we offended sitting here in

London because he is more interested in speaking to the Saudis and

European people? He is following the American agenda, he was to create

more jobs. He doesn't talk about human race in Saudi Arabia, we can

critique that, but in the eyes of some he did and said the right

thing. Talking of lowering of standards, we must be grateful for

small mercies. If there are some things where we hope he can welcome

fix McLaren, that is good. That was an interesting pivot on foreign

policy towards Saudi and the Gulf states. It is a piece of positioning

the Gulf states have looked for for the past ten years. They hated the

Obama years and he was essentially siding with them against Iran. You

can argue whether that is right or wrong but it is due politically a

very significant moment. A really serious move. As was the criticism

of Nato allies who are not doing their job. Justified. One of the

things you talk about when you'd save learning on the job, he pulled

back a little on his opposition to the climate accord and that is, I

suppose, when you talk about lowering the standard, he finally

understand that maybe climate change is real. We also have short-term

memory loss. Over the past three months, family Thames has Trump done

something and people say, oh, I think he has got on. Now he is

presidential. Every time after that he disappoints. It is early days.

With him it is this immaculate sense of an easier. It is always early

days. What you said earlier is important, let's see what happens

when he returns to Washington. He has serious problems when he returns

to Washington. Let's return to that another week.

There was a pause in the general election campaign here in the UK,

in the wake of the Manchester attack.

is resuming, with less than two weeks to polling day.

Iain, opinion polls, there's always a caveat

but it's striking that the polls narrowed significantly.

Every time this happens the British say they will not trust opinion

polls and everyone gets massively overexcited. Opinion polls are very

good at what is happening with broad trends

and the trend is really clear. That is that the Conservatives went into

this campaign with a league of somewhere around 20 points -- lead.

And they were heading for a massive landslide. Labour has run a better

campaign than anticipated, it has been fleet of food. Theresa May has

won a very bad campaign, including a declaration called the dementia

attacks which has worried a lot of core Conservative voters. Our

manifesto backfired and that lead has narrowed according to the poll

on this week's Times by you got, to only five points. -- YouGov. That

narrowing is being fuelled by a lot of young voters, this is what the

Conservatives are relying on. Young voters are flocking to Corbin on the

basis you want to make university education free and renationalise the

railways and produce a magic money tree and get money away. And

domestic pointers that people have welcomed. That it does resonate

with. What we know from collections is that young voters very often get

very excited and indulged turnout in the same way. Make not even be

registered. The Tory lead among older voters is much higher. It

remains strong. But not as strong as it was because Theresa May chose

this audacious strategy of declaring war on her own voters, pushing into

labour territory, showing they could punish wealthier footers, take on

their own based on a attempt to get that majority. Thinking the majority

is going to be fantastic. We will find out in two weeks' time. You get

the sense that it almost anybody but Jeremy Corbyn could win this

election for the Labour Party. Precisely. If Labour had a leader

who was not a supporter or sympathiser with the IRA and had

such strange views on foreign policy, then I think Labour would

really be in with a shout. Just to be wind you, we had almost 4 million

UK voters in today's and 15. That is a strong card for her. -- Ukip. They

will do not become into her camp which would dampen the hope for

Labour to come out on top. I agree with you. My problem as I report on

this to my home audience is there is a question after another standing

behind the brand GB. Brexit is one. This onslaught and terrorist attack

in Manchester is another. How will the leader of this country, Theresa

May, cope with the uncertainty of the future? Will she stand tall in

this moment of crisis, that she is the one to trust in the leadership

when there is an emergency like this. Like Manchester. Will she be

the one with all the troubles and recent experience to stand tall

vis-a-vis the Europeans? The uncertainty of the British future in

the long term makes it very difficult to predict how this all

will pan out. Something very strange has happened in the campaign. She

went into the campaign branding herself as strong and stable and

voters loved that and she was hugely popular but it was a mile wide and

an inch deep. Because of the Smith steps, that strength has turned into

a lot of voters wondering if she is mean and brittle. I think that is

actually the most important point, that this shift has been more about

the dementia attacks but the public perception of Theresa May and Jeremy

Cobham, actually, if that she has come across as very strong and and

capable and has conducted a very closely managed campaign. She is

never a court of the cup or doing something spontaneous -- off the

cuff. She is not good in those situations, great at PMQ 's then she

is rehearsed. But she has come across as brittle and hollow when

unrehearsed. There is a complaint that she is not meeting real voters,

however you define that. Not talking to journalists and not getting

spontaneous interviews. I think in the interviews she has given, even

closely managed once in BBC studios, she has come across as brittle,

hollow and incompetent, I think. Did not give across this strong and

stable vibe. Jeremy Corbyn, last-minute rally over the past

couple of weeks, and with those BBC interviews with the heads of

parties, he came across as authentic and comfortable in his own skin.

These things make a huge difference in the last ten days before an

election. Despite Jeremy Corbyn being himself, he is speaking to the

hardship people are enduring. People are looking for someone to use that

hardship, whether it is access to universities for students. The

changes the Tories made have closed off options for a lot of people and

Jeremy Corbyn is resonating. It is incredible to watch these three

leaders also flawed in different ways as people agonise over how to

choose. There are also these public swings of mood that happen. We had a

swing towards right-wing surprising elections, for Brexit and Donald

Trump, but there might be a swing back towards the harsher more

isolationist view of the world. They want to be careful not to run too

far ahead of myself. When the chips are down, despite the domestic

problems she has clearly, the country will still need strong and

stable leadership vis-a-vis the Europeans and strong and stable

leadership to cope with the terrorism threat in your midst.

Despite her domestic warblings, and I think on the 8th of June, the

debate we are having will be immaterial to the question that

people in the election booth will ask themselves. Who is going to be

the leader in those troubling times we are heading into? It is a binary

choice. The question is if she comes off more strong and stable than

Jeremy Corbyn. There are only two Mac options and a lot of voters do

not engage into the last 48 or 72 hours. At the start of the campaign,

it was all about Brexit. A few of us sat here a few weeks ago saying this

was a boring election campaign. It was all about Brexit. Does the death

of 22 change that? Not wishing to politicise that horror but does that

change it question what does that not traditionally played to ever is

in number ten at the time? That is Theresa May's leadership, to

confront the ills we are dealing with. I'm not sure she has

demonstrated raising the terror level that she has a solution. Not

sure anybody has a solution. I am not sure how a response has made

people feel more confident. Difficult to judge that because it

is early. Come the 8th of June, she will have tried to make herself

appear to be in charge, as it were, and bring the country forward and

contain the threat. Whether she succeeds or not but she would use

that argument that she is the one in the leadership position. And trust

me. I will not make reductions around this table. Not again! Not

after Hillary Clinton. But it is hard to imagine. It just me we're

talking about how big plurality or majority is, not a question of if

she is quick to win but by how much. That is a prediction! OK, what is

the impact of that? She went into this expecting very big things in

that regard, what if it is diminished? A huge amount of an ease

in the Tory trade and among Tory MPs and ministers about what is

happening. If after all of this the majority end up being not much more

than she had at the moment, what was the point? What was it all for? It

gives her a mandate to move forward. It is quite convenient. It does, but

a month ago the Conservative Party was convinced it was good to have a

majority of maybe even 150, if it comes back something like 20 or 25

and labour are seen to have won the election campaign, there will be the

most extraordinary Tory punch-up. There is concern in Brussels about a

Prime Minister not being as strong as she made herself out to be. What

kind of leader is she going to be? Is she going to be as strong as

Brussels is hoping to have? Strong and stable leadership they are

hoping to have to negotiate these issues coming up. There are not

interested in seeing her diminished like she appears to be at the

moment. No, but I think everybody has a lot to be nervous about

because we have seen things shift very dramatically over the past six

days, not even one week. 12 days long time in politics. It is a long

time these days in particular. With the unfortunate bombings in

Manchester, with her falling apart, with increasing media scrutiny, 12

days is a long time. We will be discussing that two weeks from now.

Thank you so much to all of you. Please do join me again next week,

same time same place. Thanks very much for watching,

goodbye for now. Hello there. There is going to be

some very warm sunshine this weekend with a heat and humidity has already

given rise to a number of thunderstorms. This was first thing

this morning in Southampton. Those storms have moved away and