15/07/2017 Dateline London

They're leaders, but are they leading?

Donald Trump was treated like - well, royalty -

in Paris as the French celebrated their revolution

In London, Theresa May was trumpeting a different sort

of revolution, publishing the legislation that will take

Yet Mrs May is a much diminished figure after losing her

parliamentary majority, and President Trump is distracted

by the investigation into links between his campaign -

It can't be often that they envy Iraq's Prime Minister,

but it was Haider al-Abadi who looked like a leader as he held

the flag of Iraq aloft on the streets of Mosul,

celebrating the rout of Islamic State.

To discuss leadership this week, I'm joined by four leading

American journalist Stryker McGuire, who's London editor

for Bloomberg Markets, Polly Toynbee, columnist with The Guardian

newspaper, The Portuguese writer Eunice Goes and Mustapha Karkouti,

And leadership. Is he right? It is true we have a leader in this

country at the moment, we have an incapacitated and powerless Prime

Minister who has lost her majority and has to depend on eccentric

Northern Irish MPs. And at the same time, we have a country that is

being driven by its people, driven by the results of the referendum.

Nobody dares say we're going to look at this again. The people haven't

really changed the mind as much as we can see. Some slight move but

basically people want out, and yet more more we get into the detail of

what I would means, the more shocking it looks for the future of

this country. So we are in a state of paralysis, and until people

change their mind, a government is forced to continue to do what it

increasingly knows is a catastrophe. Eunice Goes, how does it look from

the continent as they see Britain's domestic problems and at the same

time negotiations are continuing? There will be another round in the

week ahead. I think a lot of people are quite baffled with the mess of

the negotiations, with a lack of preparation from the British

government and the officials are preparing the Brexit negotiations.

Every week we hear this is about the reverberations of yet another thing

that was not thought through. Like leaving the Euratom. Every week we

are learning about ramifications of big things that should have been

thought through before the referendum, but we are now two years

after. We are analysing. And at the same time I think the European Union

is now scenting the weakness inside Theresa May's government. And if the

European Union has not changed its habits they are going to exploit

that weakness as best as they can. They will try to have the best deal

they can from a European point of view. All the charm and niceness

thrown at Britain, all the sense that there might be some

flexibility, I would be careful with that, because they also sent

weakness and the possibility that Britain might in the end not leave

the European Union. And that weakness, Polycom is the fault of

British voters, because they took away Theresa Mays majority. There

was this announcement that we would leave the agency come hell or high

water and some backbenchers kicked up a fuss that they might have some

sort of agreement and carry on in parallel. That is a demonstration of

the problems Theresa May faces. It is a terrible problem, because the

British people were lied to about how wonderful it would be to leave

Europe but also, underneath it all was real anger at a very bad

economic situation where half the population have had no increase in

their pay for ten years, housing costs have gone through the roof,

and so it was a means of expressing and other anger, which of course the

expressed in the General Election that came afterwards. Some will

interpret the General Election is people saying, we don't want a hard

wrecks it because it is making things even worse. And there is a

kind of stasis, but the government written down the middle between

people who think it is a disaster to leave, and the lunatics who created

this idea, this fantasy of a first place that somehow leaving Europe

was going to be the answer to all our problems. And nothing has been

resolved between the two halves of the government, and that is why

Theresa May stays there, precariously balanced between the

two sides will never agree. It's not just the government. When it comes

to weakness and rack said, look at the Labour Party. Imagine if the

Labour Party were led by a real pro-European and the Labour Party

were strongly pro-European. Imagine how different it would be and how

much more weakness they would sense in Europe. You can most here that

lament in Tony Blair's voice, saying that Labour put himself in the wrong

position and when getting some of the blame if Brexit does not work.

Having labour will end up there, but it is very precarious, because any

Labour seats voted for Brexit. They are inching their way forward,

including Jeremy Corbyn. His own instinct might be anti-European, but

not that much. If he ever becomes Prime Minister, it will be on the

back of the Brexit question. They are trying not to move faster than

the people are moving. It's very tricky. A week Europe is not good

for the world, no doubt, world stability. And with the changes in

America as well. The new leadership in America would take advantage of

this shaky situation in Europe to serve its own interests. As far as

the Arab point of view, it is the same, they would rather have a

unified and strong Europe leading the region. And we have a European

leader who is at least giving the impression of that. He sent his

Foreign Minister after the Gulf, I am talking about President Emmanuel

Macron of France, taking a lot of diplomatic initiative. Now in the

Gulf, trying to work as an honest broker. Is he filling a vacuum of

leadership? Partly, certainly, there is no doubt about that. His first

visit abroad was to Mali in Africa, which is very significant. This is a

clear message to the world that we are going to play a part. And he is

right doing that. And he should certainly lead Europe as well in

this direction. There are huge problems in the Middle East, in

Africa, in Asia, that cannot be sorted out. The United States itself

cannot sort this out from even the United Nations. Europe has got the

weight, the wealth, and certainly the leadership in this way. If you

had Emmanuel Macron to Angela Merkel of Germany. Eunice Goes this

question of the duality, we are voiced by the engine of Europe being

France and Germany. Tony Blair suggested in his comments this

weekend that you're also felt diminished by the prospect of

Britain leaving, then Europe would be weaker and less influential in

the world. Is that how people see it in Brussels, in Paris, in Berlin?

They do, but they will never admit to it, and they are also trying to

make up for the loss of Britain. Europe is moving very fast and

making up for Britain leaving. We need to try to cover the ground that

Britain used to cover, and I think it is very significant that Emmanuel

Macron was elected at this particular juncture and has lost no

time in trying to show that actually France is here, France is back,

France is going to be a country that makes a power that makes a

difference in the world. It was very significant that his first steps

where in terms of strengthening links with Germany and the engine of

Europe, and also in steps towards Russia, the right of states, this is

about showing that France matters. Like Britain, France is a country

that has its delusions of grandeur and wants to punch above its weight,

and so far it is early days. Macron is doing very well. He is giving a

very different image of France, because in the past ten years under

the presidency Hollande in particular France was extremely weak

and irrelevant. In European politics and was irrelevant, and Emmanuel

Macron seems determined to change that. I much desired dependent on

delivering on domestic reform? Because in a sense Nicolas Sarkozy

promised it, Francois Hollande promised it, and neither could pull

it off. That is the question. Because so far he is presenting all

the reforms that Europe has been demanding, in terms of labour market

reforms, liberalisation, and so on. He has a parliamentary majority to

approve legislation, but what is going to happen in the streets? The

streets in France... The irony for Britain leaving now is that at the

time of this ridiculous campaign for Brexit began, they said that Europe

is falling apart, all Europe is not the future, France is dilapidated.

Now suddenly we see a vision where for one thing the European Union is

growing faster than we are, we are at the back of the line for G7

growth. But France and Germany look very united, very strong. Europe

seems to have new strength and energy and enthusiasm, and we have

been left behind. We are the ones who are going to feel like the

outsiders, unimportant. We will be the flyover zone for anybody else.

Nobody will come and talk to us, they will be going to Germany and

Paris. I think what Eunice Goes says about the streets, it seems far

away, but it is so important, and it is what links to people who are so

analyte which is Emmanuel Macron and Donald Trump. They were both elected

by amazing disaffection and anger at the grassroots level. If they don't

succeed, where is that anger going to go? This is something that

worries a lot of people, because this is not just France and the US,

it is other countries as well. This pent-up anger against the

establishment, against anybody who is on top, is Willie dangerous. But

does that affect the code of leaders we get? If there is this kind of

reaction and they have been elected because of this surge of

disaffection, is there a danger that compromises the issue and makes

leaders reluctant to leave because they are terrified of getting a

similar response, similar anger and similar objection? Certainly, no

doubt about that, but in France's case, certainly the establishment is

crumbling, it has crumbled. It is gone. This is new blood. We don't

know yet. But I think Emmanuel Macron has a better chance, lots of

chances to lead France, and within Europe as well. And with Angela

Merkel who seems to be at the moment... She is up for election in

September and all the surveys suggest you will be re-elected. Yes,

but in Britain's case, I think we will wake up one day in maybe two

years when Brexit is totally signed off, and we will become poorer. And

people will ask, did we leave Europe to become poorer? Which is,

fundamentally... But might they also say, and you were hinting at the old

ways you really do sometimes behave, might they also say, we are poorer

but we are freer? Freer to do what, exactly? Our own thing. Possibly,

there is that illusion. I do think it is an illusion, because this idea

of national sovereignty, this concept of sovereignty that is being

used does not make any sense in the real world. What does it mean to be

free and be in control of your own destiny when questions like climate

change, even diseases, terrorism, economic growth, migration,

questions of technological advancement... They are so dependent

on transnational links full stop what a slogan it was, "Take back

control". Everybody, wherever they are, any stratum of society around

the world, has a sense that everything is out of control. Power

is always somewhere else, it is not where I can control it. This is

called a democracy, yet I personally cannot control anything. People in

some senses have lost the notion that actually democracy is a

collective thing, and there is much more me, me, me. I losing my power,

and a big win to get back to a certain amount of basic political

education as to what it means to govern collectively. Do you think

there is any possibility that Brexit won't have an? -- Brexit won't

happen? What Tony Blair was talking about, outer circles that we might

stay within... It is most too late for that. If we have a transition

that goes on and on, almost indefinitely, where we stay as we

are while we continue negotiating. After all, the build-up was

published this week, 1000 clauses to be debated of technical important

things that matter desperately to people's jobs in particular

industries, I think it is a possibility. But we spent to much

time talking to people like us. I get out there a lot and talk to

places that voted to accept, and I see no change -- places that voted

Brexit. It will say, I don't want to know, I don't want to know the

details, don't tell me that, I just want out. I figured us in the same

realm of likelihood is impeachment for Donald Trump. It is possible,

but it really doesn't feel likely at this point.

After his European tour, Donald Trump is back

For him, the big legislative doubt is over the "beautiful"

new healthcare bill with which he hopes to replace

the Affordable Care Act, the hated - to Mr Trump's base -

signature reform of his predecessor Barack Obama.

Haider al-Abadi, but does not fight over the health care bill tell us

about Donald Trump's approach to leadership? -- Stryker McGuire, what

does that tell us? He was always good to be a different kind of

leader. He was elected, but he behaves like an oligarch. He is very

removed from the levers and the gears and the mechanisms of

government. I don't think he could care less about that. With him, so

much as personal. This is so much more about a bummer, the person, --

Barack Obama, the person, than about people might health care. Between

18-20,000,000 people. But he is very removed from that. He just wants

things to happen because he wants them to happen, therefore this

should happen. He gets angry when they don't happen, and this is

causing serious problems for the people who are actually writing the

bill. I don't think he wrote the bill. Shocking revelation! He is

just not that kind of guy. What is going to happen when that many

millions of people have lost their health care in excess elections?

This is what's really in trusting. We sort of climate change and now we

see it with health care. Local government in the United States, the

city 's mother state governments, governors had a meeting recently,

this week in Boston, and governors are overwhelmingly opposed, because

they are right there, they don't in the dirt with the health care bill

and all of its repercussions. And so what is going to happen is there is

huge opposition within the Republican party at that level, but

even in the Senate. In the Senate you have moderates who are against

it cos they don't want all these people to lose their health care,

and then you have extremists who are against it because they just don't

think there should be health insurance. It depends where you sit

which group you regard as moderates in which you regard as extremists.

They could say that ideological EB have a position. The point is you

could have a coalition of different interests. And I think the

hardliners are more likely to wind down the moderates, the moderates

are fewer in number. But even if something were to come out of the

Senate, they now extended the legislative terms of that that could

possibly happen, even if that were to happen, that is far from the end

of the story. The point you made earlier, Mustapha Karkouti, about

leadership, that the establishment has crumbled in France, the problem

Donald Trump has a few wants to lead is that the establishment in

Washington still seems very much alive. Very much, certainly. That is

his trouble there, he cannot make a lot of changes. He is against a huge

wall. The establishment is still strong and sound. Both parties. The

idea is the establishment finds it also strange and difficult to deal

with the businessman who is still running the White House as a

businessman. As we all know, the man has no political experience

whatsoever. Parachuted into the White House to run the biggest, the

most important, the most influential country in the world. And the

largest economy. One could must feel sympathy for him! I think he is

extremely powerful in the sense that so far the checks of the American

Constitution on his power have not really worked. I think it is

extremely worrying when we see the mixing of his private business

interests, his family, the way they are all meddled in all areas of

American Public policy, in particular diplomacy. This is

extremely worrying and is not supposed to happen in a democracy,

and yet the two houses of the American Congress are not saying a

thing. There are no enquiries, there are no questions. There are

enquiries, but there is a kind of normalcy. But he hasn't done

anything. His first 100 days have been most vacant and vacuous in

which nothing has happened. The checks and balances are working to

some extent. He thinks he can just order what everyone's and the

result... One thing we have enquiries about is the Russia

connection, if there is one, and there are a lot of enquiries into

that. We have it catching his family because his son had this meeting,

and one of the people at the meeting was apparently a former Soviet spy.

Some are involved in Soviet intelligence. And yet it doesn't

seem to be hurting his popularity. More than popularity, it seems to be

able to carry on. His sons who are running the business of making

statements about American diplomacy. I don't think this is normal. His

daughter, still in charge of a business, shows up at a G20 meeting

I don't think this is normal. It should not be allowed. He is the

most unpopular president for this period of time in memory. But the

frustration that you are depressing is that it doesn't seem to matter.

His so-called base seems to be about 40 present, sometimes it did so

little lower, but the problem is until the Republican legislators

believe that their own seats are threatened by Trump, they are too

afraid to move. So until the mid-term elections, that would be

the earliest chance? Or in the run-up to them. Because people begin

running early. So they have to make assumptions, they have to make plans

based on how they think things are going. And if they are going really

badly... You have a third of senators, and you have... Every

congressman. Mustapha Karkouti, I started the programme talking about

Haider al-Abadi waving the Iraqi flag in Mills. In one sense you

would think his task of leadership looks easy. He has just had a big

victory, that would give him a boost. But is it as simple as that,

straightforward? Is anything straightforward in Iraqi politics

quiz night Haider al-Abadi no doubt... The issue is much more

complicated than he is trying to portray. Certainly Daesh... The

group that calls itself Islamic State. It has been defeated in Iraq

no doubt, but this is necessary to do that. But is it sufficient? Isn't

the only thing you need to do in Iraq? Not to mention Syria, of

course. Iraq itself has got on that front a step forward. But the

biggest problem now starts in Iraq which is how to rebuild,

rehabilitate positively. Not socially, economically, but

politically. You have a new militia which took part in the liberation of

muscle. Now they have to have something to do. Exactly, and they

are amending a part. This militia, known as a popular mobilisation

force, it is inspired by the Iranians Revolutionary guard. And

they are demanding political parts to play in deciding the future of

Iraq. You think there is something quite important about the idea of

the caliphate having fallen with Mosul? The romance of the droopy

Berlin from all over the place, that there was a place and this was the

perfect Islamic State that would eventually grow and take over the

world. Do you think the force of that has gone in terms of

recruitment? Yes, certainly. I think the idea of caliphate itself has

been used up either deliberately or totally unnecessarily. It had no

future right from day one. Don't forget, the vast majority of

recruits and non-Arabs. They come from abroad. They are mostly

European, which is strange. You have no future with such force within an

Arab environment. But the further you are from a Borough Market it may

seem. I agree. In a sense, for a time it was a more effective

leadership for rallying banner or democratic leadership. It was, that

is why the coalition that helped Iraq defeats Daesh, they have been

very critical of the' -- criticised by an international, because for

propaganda purposes it is important to show to anyone who may be

attracted by the romance of the caliphate, that they can have a

pretty dramatic, pretty horrific and at the hands of the Iraqi army.

Hopefully in that sense the kind of propaganda works. But I think we

haven't seen the end of Daesh in the region. No. There are still quite a

lot of work to do even in Iraq will stop. Reasons to be full. But I

think even Mosul we will find out that some pretty horrendous things

happened there and it will make all of us feel very queasy. But yes,

there is no doubt that on balance this feels like old. Thank you all

very much for being with us. That's it for Dateline

London for this week. We're back next week

at the same time.