19/08/2017 Dateline London

Hello and welcome to Dateline London.

This week, we discuss the latest UK proposals

We look at India, 70 years after independence.

And we ask, is there really a crisis in Donald Trump's White House?

The writer and political commentator Adam Raphael.

Stephanie Baker, senior writer and chief global business

London correspondent for Le Point and Le Soir, Marc Roche.

And columnist for The National, and The Arab Weekly,

We will talk shortly have bottles of Brexit proposals. Firstly however...

Let's start though this week with a word about the terrorist

attacks in Spain, which killed 14 people in two cities

The police there are still looking for members of a jihadist gang.

Adam and Marc, your response to yet another attack in Europe.

A similar modus operandi from the past. Yes, what can I say? It is a

second-generation, young men committing these things, obviously

radicalised, alienated, not surprisingly it happened in

Barcelona. It was obviously going to be a key target. There are rumours

of a CIA warning to Spain, we do not know if we were true or not but in a

place like Las Ramblas, there is clearly a potential target beer and

there is a bit of a surprise that they were able to drive for 500

metres down Las Ramblas. Another soft target, we see it time and

again. Yes, and after Nice I said that that sort of thing should not

have cars allowed because it was a similar situation. The promenade.

Basically there is very little to tell you other than that we have to

count on the Muslim community to pick up these guys in the mosques

and tell the police and also, I think we have to do better work at

integrating the young Muslim men who seem to be forgotten about in a

multicultural society. Well, the hunt is continuing the belief or at

least one more member, we will see what develops in the days ahead.

Before that, there was much focus as we have reflected here many times on

Brexit. So, the next round of formal Brexit

talks begin later this month. To that end, the British Government

released its position paper this week about its ambitions for Ireland

and particularly the border. The Prime Minister Theresa May

was adamant about the need to maintain an open border

between Northern Ireland and the Republic when the UK

leaves the customs union, allowing easy movement

for both people and goods, But the European Commission swiftly

retorted that frictionless trade wasn't possible outside

the single market. In a moment we'll discuss

whether the position paper has thrown up more questions

than answers... What do you think, Adam? I am afraid

we are still in the delusional state in this country, this two papers are

at least some advanced towards reality, but, for instance, the

Brexit Secretary David Davis said that the talks with Europe were

going incredibly well. They are not. They are going incredibly badly.

politicians in this country exists, politicians in this country exists,

the Cabinet is split three ways, we are any bad hole. It is only going

to be a question of time before this is revealed in the British public

realise they have been sold a total pub. What happens then, goodness

only knows but I think this two papers, at least, there is a

traditional deal acceptance, that is important, because the idea of

marching off the cliff face would be a disaster for everyone in this

country, not just for business but for ordinary working people as well.

We are slowly moving towards reality but my goodness, the

Europeans are correct when they see we are still in Neverland. Many

business leaders have said that this paper gives us clarity and we know

that business-like certainty, but it that business-like certainty, but

does not get to the heart about what does not get to the heart about what

we do with the customs union. There will be an agreement on the EU

citizens, there will be an agreement on Ireland. The two diminishes as

the devolved bill, that will be the big issue, especially trade, because

the British want to have everything, they want to negotiate trade deals

before they have left of the European Union, that is impossible.

The situation is that the European Union is very strong and united, 27

strong and the British are divided. So the clock is ticking. Absolutely!

At the clock is ticking and we have lost one year because of the

political situation in Britain and the British government is any weak

position because it is divided, and Adam said, and political Divin --

political opinion and business opinion is also divided. Stephanie.

I think business is united comparatively speaking, certainly

compared to the Cabinet and I think this week finally Number Ten has

come up with policy proposals but they picked the two most difficult

issues, customs and Northern Ireland. It is definitely a victory

for the businesses saying we need a transition period, but it seems what

they are proposing is not just short on details but very unrealistic that

the UK would be out of the single market and out of the customs union

similar relationship that is close similar relationship that is close

to resembling what we have at the moment. All the while not having any

of the obligations of freedom of movement are paying into the EU

budget. It sounds great, but why would the EU agree to any of that?

The hint and this is that they will have some great new IT system that

will be a magical solution to solving these problems. I have

spoken to consultants that have said that actually that is far off, it is

very costly, many years to go before it becomes a reality. So what they

are proposing I think it's unrealistic and on top of that, I

would tell you that actually, the customs union is only part of the

problem. People forget that the British economy, 80% of it is

involved in services, that is not affected by this. The big prize at

the end of the day is if they can get a deal on services to protect

the British economy. I woke up the other day listening to the Brexit

about how ambiguity is deliberate, about how ambiguity is deliberate,

the lack of clarity is a good thing, and I felt, I was not around in 1947

when Britain was leaving India, but my grandparents, my payments'

generation, would probably have recognised the Brexit chaos. At that

time there was a much shorter turnaround of time, there was a

great lack of information provided, in fact, Lord Mountbatten, the last

Viceroy to India, he did not allow the new borders of India and

Pakistan to be announced until after Independent States were declared. At

that time you could see that perhaps that is OK because at least the

British had to worry or not worry about all of those natives, millions

of Indians and the new country of Pakistan. But the confusion that has

been created here and the polarisation that is allowed because

of the lack of information, you wonder why Britain would want to do

that to themselves, it is their own future we are playing with. Because

52% of the population voted for it and plenty watching this programme

will believe that things are not going terribly, things are going as

they should, this is what they voted for, this is what they want. The

lack of information, so when did you read that 759 international trade

agreements and deals have to be negotiated by Britain right after

Brexit. The other day you have read that there is no reason to have any

import tariffs at all, let us go off and buy oranges cheaper from South

Africa and buy from Tunisia because the EU levy will be very heavy

import tariffs on this. It will be fine. Perhaps there is a bit of this

and that but it could lower the temperature if the government use

some of the information it is getting and provided it to people to

allow them to test the limits of politics as decent and responsive

citizens. The government has fundamentally disagreed, you

mentioned 52% voted, we don't do that, but the latest Ipsos MORI poll

published by the economists suggest that three quarters of the people

believe that Britain is the incorrect path. That does not mean

that they want to get out, there is no means that that is the clear

situation and they are not suggesting that if there was a

referendum tomorrow that people would change their minds. Public

opinion is extremely fluid and very, very uncertain and the divisions in

the Cabinet, to some extent, reflect that. No one really knows where they

are, the politicians, frankly, I do not meet a great case for journalist

but we can rightly or wrongly speak honestly. Many of the politicians

cannot speak honestly because they do not want to do that because they

are too frightened because they do not know which way it is all going.

We are left in the hands of these characters, Liam Fox, David Davis...

Boris Johnson as well. I personally have very little confidence in them

at each wheel to negotiate our way in this difficult task. Partly at a

time when the European Union is doing extremely well, the euro is

high, Germany and France are relaunching their politics. It looks

like on the one hand you have Britain which cannot get a position

and the European Union which goes forward with or without Britain.

Adam, you said earlier, it is not going well, it is going badly.

Actually, to what extent does any of us know that? Does anyone go into a

negotiation, you do not put all of your cards on the table, did you?

That is a process. It looked like they were behind schedule, now it

knows that the trade talks in October could be delayed until

December. They are behind schedule. Yes, in terms of the timetable

perhaps. On social media and the bad tempers and Develin telling us that

they won't Brexit reversed or not diverse, I think a lot of this has

been created because people do not know. There will be trade-offs, for

some people who want to leave the European Union it is fine, there

will be trade-offs. Some people will be worse off in some ways but better

the people know. UK Government is the people know. UK Government

going to be trusted enough to be not going to be trusted enough to be not

thought of as giving alternative facts. Brexit will take place at the

end of the day. I love the idea that Marc says that all 27 are wonderful.

It is for the birds, you wait, the divisions are not good. That is the

typical British idea. We are united to resist the British proposal. You

might be right on that. To return to the specific point of Ireland which

is what the position paper was about. Stephanie is correct to say

that this is one of the greatest areas in the negotiations, isn't it?

And it ties of the problem of Britain wanting to bring down

emigration but if you do not have a hard border it could be risky in

terms of people smuggling, all important issues. Yes,

be the problem that we will have a be the problem that we will have a

frontier that is fluid and not well policed because you will have

smugglers, terrorists, traffickers of humans who will be able to go

into the... The Irish effectively have a veto. Frankly, as the

proposals put forward by the British government or whatever, unless they

are acceptable to the Irish government, it will be difficult for

the EU to agree to them. So, I suspect that is one of the most

difficult issues to resolve. I personally believe the money is not

a huge thing, we will be paying billions anyway. And the divorce

bill. But the trade and Ireland, those are the key issues and

frankly, we remain in the divisional series in this country. Especially

having a government with the defence of the union is for survival and the

union has an agenda and Ireland which is different from Dublin. It

seems like everyone wants the same thing which is no hard border, but

how did you get there? It seems like an external border to the EU, there

will have to be checks on goods going to and from, whether that is a

virtual border or not. People might be the easiest part of it but you

already have French farmers talking about concerns about that being a

back door route into the EU for agricultural produce. Chicken from

the United States! There is something to look forward to! We can

agree that the island issue is very difficult regarding Brexit and we

know more and more about this. Well, the British Government talks

confidently about doing trade with nations outside the EU -

India being one of the key markets - and this week, of course,

saw India mark its 70th Rashmee, how are relations between

London and Delhi at the moment? Polite. I know that sounds drizzly

bloodless and without passion, but perhaps that is not a bad thing.

Because, you know, there has been over the passage of time for both

countries the relationship has the equation to evolve into a steady

relationship, of mutual respect and all of that. That sounds quite

diplomatic. Bear in mind we're talking about the 70th anniversary,

70 as a birthday is not particularly momentous, it is not life-changing,

it is not likely 21st or a 50th or A75, or 100, so you have to look at

the passage of time or closely and see where we are. I think it would

describe the relationship as currently made up of the skull cars

and the scoffers. The day after the Brexit referendum occurred in June

2016, their birdies Mark Hughes who said watching Britain partition

itself, let them feel the same pain of division that had brought itself

to the subcontinent, let us see what happens to that. So there was a bit

of the delight that was being taken at the predicament of Britain. The

scoffers will say that Britain is this distant connection, because in

seven times removed or whatever. It's only cultural relevance now is

cricket and tea and the fact that there is a feeding fondness for PG

Woodhouse, his writing and all of that. I do not think that is where

we are, I think we should let the events of the past be in the history

books but let them be any history books. In other words, let Britain

teach that history, contextualise it. As for trade, I do not think

that is happening any time soon and the reason is that Indians, just

like other members of the Commonwealth, New Zealand,

Australia, Canada and so on, they want to have mobility of people just

as much as the mobility of cash and goods and investment and Britain has

shown itself to be rather unwilling. On that front. Unwelcoming, is that

what you think? Yes, for example, for an Indian to buy it to match

your visa to come to Britain that caused four times what it cost

someone from China. Indian students cannot study here or work here after

the finish studying. They are not allowed to come and. Workers are not

allowed. 30,000 Indians were told that their work permits would not be

renewed. There are issues and Indian officials feel that quite strongly.

If we're going to do well after Brexit, do we need to be more

welcoming as a nation, is this a key stumbling block in terms of trade? I

think that India is a key test case as to whether Britain can negotiate

trade deals with other countries. India is not a major trading partner

of the UK. It has a huge trade deficit with India, so doing a

free-trade agreement with India is Laura advantage to Britain than it

is to India. The biggest trading partner of India includes the US,

China and Germany is in the top ten. Use Angela Merkel this week saying

that she wants to restart the EU's talks with India on its own trade

and investment agreement. And so, from the Indian perspective, what is

more important, a trade deal with the UK or the EU? I think that is

self-explanatory. Let us turn our attentions to the

United States now. White House chief strategist

Steve Bannon is the latest member of the Trump administration to be

fired at the end of a week in which the President's new chief

of staff, John Kelly, was photographed shaking his head

and staring at the floor during a particularly chaotic news

conference which centred on the violence in

Charlottesville, Virginia. Several commentators have described

this week as a turning point. No, I think it is a sort of reality

TV show. I do not know what the ending is but it is extraordinary,

there has never been a presidency like it, I would rather doubt

whether we will ever be a presidency like it again. It is an

House is in chaos, but you can fire House is in chaos, but you can fire

any number of people like Steve Bannon and what have you and they

have fired five people now, the lights of Flynn and Sara Michie and

whoever, but in the end, it is the president who is the problem and he

is tweeting at four o'clock in the morning. He is a very odd character

and you could say that he is a reality show TV man, which is what I

normally see, or you could say that he is a property spec later that got

lucky or not lucky. He is also a demigod of a politician but he has

shown himself to be particularly inept politically but some of the

statements that he has been making, he obviously has no idea of how to

manage men and women at all. So I have no idea what the outcome will

be but I think the congressional elections which come mid term will

be pretty horrific and the real issue to me is, will Republicans, at

what stage will senior Republicans say enough is enough? But that is

the key point, isn't it? Stephanie, what is your estimation? Not just

the Steve Bannon thing, it is Charlottesville, the

murder of a young women and that was murder of a young women and that was

the point at which quite a few strategist I spoke to over the

course of Reid said Charlottesville is something different and in terms

of the reaction of Donald Trump to this, this is a turning point, to

reduce yet like that? Many people have said that based on the things

he has said previously and it has not turned up like that. I do think

this is different. It took some time but you finally had two dozen

Republicans come out and criticise Donald Trump by name for his

equivocal response to Charlottesville. So I think that is

significant. Including business leaders. He has presided over an

unprecedented rift between corporate America and the White House after

having built himself up as the business president and welcoming

them into the White House. They have now all abandoned him and you even

had last night the billionaire Carl icon who had been supportive of him

stepping down as his advisor on regulatory affairs. So I think this

is a turning point and the Caroline Shearer is the legislative agenda is

packed for the autumn and it is not just on, you know, ambitious

proposals that are Donald Trump put forward for tax reform or

those are very unrealistic now, those are very unrealistic now,

given the political climate and how he has squandered his political

capital. But things like getting a budget passed, raising the

debt-ceiling, these are making sure there is not the government

shutdown, these are big issues and the question is, will Congress be

able to get its act together to pass those things to avert a shutdown of

government, given the lack of leadership in the White House? And

the divisions that exist? Some people are worried that the

departure of Steve Bannon means that there is no longer any points person

for relations with Congress and now with Steve Bannon out it is unclear

how that will play out. He has made a big story out of the fact that he

will wage war on anyone who gets in the way of the Trump administration

and that means House Speaker Paul Ryan is on the line of fire and

certainly the more moderate forces and the White House the lights of

the economic adviser and the Treasury Secretary. Steve Bannon in

some ways was also fighting, he said, the intense lobbying of

government and himself being a former government banker.

Goldman Sachs lobby in the White Goldman Sachs lobby in the White

House has now come to power and what is good for them is not necessarily

good for the US as we know from the financial crisis. I think that every

bite is supposed to be the very worst week for the Donald Trump

presidency, every week he is opposed done something that is so

outrageous, this is the moment where everything will fall. I am not sure

that that is actually true because he has still got an amazing amount

of support in his base and that based, as Adam will know from having

covered the Nixon presidency, even at the time that Richard Nixon was

being investigated and things were really bad for him, he had equal

level of about 25 or 27% support. So I think if there is that, I do not

know what covered the congressmen are going to really be willing to do

very much to the President, unless people discernibly split from him.

And while that point even come? Had a new centre are being created by

getting rid of a right-wing agenda? I do not know, we are seeing that in

India, it is happening in Hungary... Do we reach a point where some

the brand and the Republican Party, the brand and the Republican Party,

does it have to come down to that practical point? We are afraid of...

The popular feeling has been... How do you fight the populist like

Donald Trump or...? It is not just enough to be appalled by Donald

Trump, you must have a positive agenda, another option. Some good

points have been made that the war base remains and would probably vote

for him. The question is, does that road, frankly he will not be able to

deliver on jobs in the rust belt, he cannot deliver on jobs and tax

reform, at what stage is that we start to erode? I do not have a clue

but personally, I am not as concerned by his averages statements

of Charlottesville, it is typically inept from him, but any sense, for

the politically correct, it has really matter and that has really

divided America and it has focused attention on his lack of political

skills. In the end, so long as that core base remains, he probably will

survive. You have of course the recession which with Barack Obama

was turned around. We were told that was no longer present but it has

come back to the fore again with Charlottesville and black people

having to face criticism. You almost feel like America is going back to a

dark past. Let us see what the coming days and

weeks bring on those stories. Do watch next week,

same time, same place. Thanks for being

with us, and goodbye.