12/08/2017 Dateline London

Hello and welcome to Dateline London.

In South Africa, leadership confirmed.

In Kenya, leadership disputed.

New And as for North Korea, is it Kim Jong-Un or Donald Trump

With me to discuss this week's displays of leadership are:

Vincent Magombe, Director of the African journalists' network,

Thomas Kielinger from Germany's Die Welt;

and the US-born, London-based political commentator Ned Temko.

"Fire and Fury" - Donald Trump's threat in response to North Korea's

self-proclaimed plan to attack Guam, a US Pacific territory.

And if that wasn't enough to restrain Kim Jong-Un,

how about "Military solutions are now fully in place,

net, how much of this is horrible and bluster, and how much of it

reflect a real change in the atmosphere of this relationship that

has really been frozen in time for 60 years? The danger is we don't

know. I will start by making a safe prediction. Save if only because I

am wrong, no one will be had to know. And that is I am fairly

confident we are not on the brink of nuclear war. But should we be

worried? Absolutely yes. On the Korean peninsular, even a

conventional war could kill hundreds of thousands of people within a

space of hours. In places like Seoul, which is only minutes away

from conventionally armed missiles, Tokyo, and the second perhaps

equally serious problem is crises like these become was often by

miscalculation or accident. Without getting into pop psychology, what is

dangerous in this one is you do not have to be a psychologist, you have

a President of the US who appears to have no impulse control, who appears

to have neither much knowledge of not interested in policy issues,

history, and whose main interest seems to be Donald J Trump, and I

think what is important to realise about everything he says, the

multiple craziness is, is that it again reflects that this is a crisis

that is about Donald Trump, and if you had him yesterday, rhapsodising

about the tens of millions of people who are behind him and who did not

like that week George HW Bush, George W Bush, that terrible Barack

Obama, and finally we have someone with muscle in the White House. And

that is not the kind of context in which you would like a crisis like

this to play out. The North Korean leader provides the sort of enemies

that Trump thinks makes him looks great. And versa. Year the other

male and he can bang the drum and legally done, but it is an

interesting sort of sideshow. We had the good cop and bad cop at the

moment in America. He is the bad cop guy, who threatens and uses bluster

and so forth, with very reasonable people around him who would not

follow the Trump line, so he cannot have it all. While you say it is not

Donald Trump, it is also about the standing of American diplomacy in

the world. You cannot allow a bull in a china shop to have his own way

and threaten a kind of brink from which we are all... I am with you on

that, but he does have the nuclear codes after all. It is interesting,

since Trump came to the White House, we speak in a forked tongue about

Donald Trump. One moment we talk about his pathologies, the next we

say, and there is no way he will do it, and every time he does it. We

need to decide whether he is fit completely have a logical... He has

done a lot of things the past six months that would have been

unthinkable. I think we cannot fathom the depths to which the man

will plummet, we always say, oh, this date will put a brake on it,

bureaucracy, military. But I have seen very little sign... Potluck

transgender in a military, which was extraordinary. You had a

presidential order that as of today there will be no more transgender

people in the military, any military ignored it. These questions pale

before nuclear war. We don't know the military ignored it. We are told

about diplomatic confusion and resistance. Of a plot about known

unknowns to quote Donald Rumsfeld,... Gray PSA giant now.

LAUGHTER He was an intellectual on the

defence job, but he pointed out the things we'd do not know but think we

know. That is ten times more the case now when we talk about North

Korea. I heard one commentator referred to North Korea as the

strange mix of confusion with death cult. Nobody outside really

understand the regime and therefore does not actually know how to

calibrate its response. I am never surprised about what goes on North

Korea. I was a rush for ten years and communist rule, that is how they

behave. That is what they do. The theory attempt of your self defence

and try to make sure they protect their people and so on. But what I

must say about this is the BBC should excuse me as I am the use and

diplomatic language. We have two mad guys are really mad, Trump and that

young man, as I say I am not very surprised about North Korea. I don't

think the young man would dare trigger a nuclear thing. Trump, I

would be very surprised if Americans, sensible as they claim to

be, all those guys that we all talk about, sensible people around him,

but all the same, this guy is very unpredictable and is totally out of

order in terms of... But but the powers that he has. I feel very

strongly that he is just laughing. How many times has he said, I'm

going to build the wall, by my care, I am dedicated away. Almost

everything he has said very loudly, he is not able to do. So I think

that this in a certain way, we should see it as they will diverge

in from the internal problems facing Donald Trump. You could save it the

same thing about Kim Jong-un. Extenuating circumstances about

Trump, but perhaps we should also consider that he is confronted with

a unknown known North Korean leader, and a old Cold War years at least

you have the certainty of knowing how the mindset of the Soviet Union

picked, you kind of felt that you are in a safe environment, they

subscribe to the same rules of engagement, and so forth. You do not

know that about North Korea. So this line is that he employees could be a

way to tweak out of the North Korean mind, where do you stand? Gray

always try to find right in Trump's case, always.

LAUGHTER Method in the madness. And that you

should exchange notes after the programme. Back in the cold War

years, you were in Moscow. The one area for potential optimism, because

I agree with you, I don't think there are many adults in the room,

but one of them is the secretary of defence. He himself said, he used

the word catastrophic this week for the option of a war. He was standing

that message to the White House is much to the rest of the world. Trump

cannot have everything. Unless they put his ATM number and substituted.

We will move onto another continent that has much to discuss. That is

the question of South Africa. Two elections have taken place this

week. South Africa's President Jacob Zuma

has survived a vote of no confidence and carries on,

and Kenya's President An election that are still being

contested as we speak by Degas, his long-time rival.

Vincent, so Zuma goes on and yet the corruption allegations continue.

Is there real reason to believe it could have been stopped? I would try

to defuse too much emotion about this question. Kenya is fairly

democratic, and basically if you compare it to the neighbouring

countries, Uganda, elections were held in February, totalled the game

and now we have seen results... We have not seen for example the

military on the security forces and Kenya being used to read the

President. That seems not to have happened. Usually what they have,

and we thought last time when thousands of people died in Kenya,

is at the point of declaring this result, so BC sometimes

inconsistencies and results that have been declared in constituencies

and some that have been announced in Nairobi. Back has been a little bit

of that. But not to the extent that could overturn the election. The man

who is supposed to have one, who is doing the right thing, he has now

issued a very conciliatory statement saying, I am very happy and ready to

work together. After the killings, they had to come into some sort of

unity Government. Odinga are saying... Have got their point of

setting another unity Government, but I believe very strongly and soon

we might see Odinga saying... LAUGHTER

Pot about him retiring? If he does it, there is a real risk of the type

of violence that we saw before, perhaps not thousands of people

dying, but... Everyone seems to want to avoid that scenario, however

passionate they feel about it, it is still enough within recent memory.

There was opportunity to see that kind of virus before people pulled

back from the brink. I think it was clear that the rewards would

outweigh the consequences. That fact that kind of violence. When

insecurity happened the first time, Kenya was a thoroughfare for Eastern

Africa in terms of transportation and infrastructure, and when the

last spate of instability happened, many African countries diversify

their roots and pipelines, so I think in terms of regional

instability, Kenya has become less impactful. In turn LA, it is pretty

much settled into a 2-party, two candidate system which is good for

stability, not necessarily very good for the better day. There is still

this feeling in the best that they do not get their fair share of

resources or their fair share of power. Exactly. That is why I think

whenever there is an election, the impulse is to immediately rejected

because there is just so much at stake, that it seems unfathomable

that one party has garnered all this support. But I think there will be a

stepping back from the break and some conciliatory language being

spoken. It is not quite as optimistic a picture in South

Africa. Strangely, given that there is no particular pilots on the

streets because of the outcome of this Zouma vote. But interesting

that Zuma has eight of these confidence motions, he wins everyone

but this is the first one... He won by only one vote. Suddenly, has the

game changed? I think so. But like we had predicted this for years. I

think what we are seeing now is signs within the ANC that out of

their own self-interest, they recognise, you have... The greater

tragedy than President Zuma himself who after all has raised corruption

to an artform, he is about to answer 750 separate... He denies all the

charges. I wanted on the record that they are not true as well. All I'm

saying is that he has held that position consistently, the party has

stood by him. I covered South Africa in the final, when a final stage of

apartheid went back when Mandela was released. If you take this to

directory come from Mandela's miraculous period in rule, where

there were, even Mandela recognises these huge economic racial and

social issues, and he navigated that. You could argue that even

under the Becky, although not his chosen successor, he would have

preferred... Summit has got to see these to the historical prism. What

has set him isn't really that historical track of ANC. That is the

only way he was able to stay. The nearest equivalent in ahead of

intelligence. One person, the young man who is heading what they call

the economic freedom fighters. He came up just before the thing, and

somehow said, well, look, there is something going on here. I would

like to throw President Zuma away. But there seems to be about the ANC.

Some people want to derail the historical role of liberation and

all that kind of stuff. That is what he was playing and it has helped

him. How much longer can continue? That is of a century. It was

triggered when the finance minister was sacked. Who is he? This is

someone who supports and was the front line for Western economic

system. Someone who is really working for the big companies and

Taiwan. He is still being blamed and the ANC is being blamed for not

transforming the economy. That is why, even if so many people are

supporting President Zuma, they see it well, you are trying to kick him

out because he kicked out someone very popular as of the west, and the

World Bank and so on. But that hasn't helped us. I'm struck by

this, because I cannot compete with Ned's distinct record of reporting

out there, I was there for one particular event which was at Pollok

one A, a decade ago, when he was effectively dumped at a party

candidate. I have a vivid memory of being at a reception, a diplomatic

reception where there was a rather diminished figure, physically rather

frail, an intellectual figure in the party. There was Zuma, a powerful

presence with great charisma, meeting the diplomatic greeting.

Palmer was shifting. He had not yet become President, but Mbeki had been

dropped as a candidate. If you were the ANC man, you were effectively

going to be the head of state. There was no issue. Is that going to be

the case next I'm? Is it automatic or I'll be at a transition phase

where ANC and state are no longer inseparable? I think the ANC is done

very powerful in terms of grassroots support. The opposition is now being

headed by black persons, but many people see that opposition as

rappers and the white minority because of its history. The ANC has

a big chunk of support, but the only thing we're going to start seeing is

the power struggle within the ANC itself between those who want to

radicalise things, starting to do with the land issue and economy

issues, and those who are not. We expect that when Zuma goes, the next

person will take all this over. But that might not happen if what I am

telling you, this equation goes on, because he is now... Goes back in

recent history has evolved. He has crossed over and is very supportive

of Western business, a rich man and so on. He is not somebody who still

caters for the small people. We have an urban elite coming into its own.

They are probably getting tired of these post-colonial debates and the

power structures and want to find some way of getting away from it and

reconciling these divisions, and force them into a future state of

affairs. That does not hanker back to the post-colonial, post-apartheid

struggle, and find a new... The issue of the colonial post-colonial,

post-apartheid issues are still very, very powerful for South

Africa. For Kainga it might be something different. People are

studied move forward, but... It feels like a historical issue. For

South Africa, the story of liberation has not been told as yet.

The people in the ghettos, the people who do not have much, they

are still very strong and it will divide their struggles. I agree. It

is interesting, there is a perception outside South Africa that

apartheid was a long time ago. And that it was reconciliation and we

have had the black leaders, but it is not really at all. It has not

really been written letter Lompoc. There is still many axes to grind.

When people say, it was so interesting to hear Western

commentators say, there is a generation that has post-apartheid

that has now come of age. For them these things are, the struggles of

their elders. That is not the case, it is completely irrelevant that

lack relevant. If you see South Africa, if there is no racial

apartheid, there is an economic apartheid appals along racial lines.

They wear indicators of real trouble recently when the local South

Africans and on immigrants from Nigeria. They really went out there.

What it means is that ANC of whatever Government is going forward

do not address the issue of lack of access to what everyone else is

enjoying, south after sitting on an explosion, goes back I want to move

on. That makes the situation even more tragic than Kenya. The ANC

isn't internal Carl Meyer, an internal ANC members what I held

onto their positions I cannot completely cut Zuma. Activated their

confidence, they would have to go back and jockey for their own

positions. He also have a nation that is handcuffed to the ANC in

terms of racial politics, but economically we have not measured

economics, economically South Africa is in dire straits. I want to

mention economics is likely to be context, but one were to take pics

of the general theme you're talking about.

Europeans are enjoying their summer holidays, but on Wednesday,

one Spanish beach played host to a different sort of visitor.

In one of the most striking photographs of the week,

a rubber dinghy emerges from the surf on the

People have jumped into the water and are running the last few

A group of sunbathers has gathered to find out what's going on.

This is a representation in one picture of a whole process that has

happened before and is happening in other parts throughout the Middle

East. We talked about Libya as a way that people get into Europe, who

have a search for economic opportunities, many of them coming

from sub-Saharan Africa and going to North Africa, now evident we were

talking about ten years ago a cross from Morocco into Spain is active

again. Much does this tell us about the continued economic and answered

economically demand from Africa? Gray I think it says the things,

that there is consistent economic pressure on North Africa. If people

have a root, they will take it. Thirdly, there is just more

accessibility of information about these types of routes. Even five

years ago, the ability to find out things like social media, cheap

phone called, voice over IP, the routes today, was severely

diminished. And now the flow of information SMRs clearer, people

scratch their heads and say, how do these people know, how do they know

where to go when is notified routes or streets or signs saying...? It is

because information is now free. On the routes don't matter. The point

is the issue... People coming from Africa, it will continue until we

start having some economic involvement. The political stability

and so on. We stop these was any Middle East will stop the whole

thing, of course Europeans do not want us to come, but you are part of

those problems. Unless you stop coursing was and installing

dictators, and we will still come. You close this route, we will find

another route. Just that you came to ours, we will find another route to

come here. It is about global inequalities, but it is also about

politics of the world. How people are trading was... It is about

history as well. And a fact that there are structural inequalities,

not entirely attributable to one party or the other, but when you

have structural inequality and where people want to make a life, they

will find a way. And we build so much inflammatory language about

this and we apologise a very simple impulse, which is just to escape

from economic or war in security. As all those Europeans did when it

comes to your country of 500 years ago. And help to shape your

country... To combine to our favourite tropic, Donald Trump.

LAUGHTER Gray your favourite topic.

LAUGHTER Goes like I think you have a bit of

an obsession. LAUGHTER

The central political and economic truth of our age without being over

the top, is that these things are not going to stop and that you can

build walls and promise that the coal industry will start all over

again, you can tell people that it is Muslims or Mexicans rather than

microchips that is taking your jobs. Stop coming to the Star bars and

stealing our things and do whatever, Europeans came to our places, we

will come to you. Everywhere. When we come here, you start saying, oh,

stop it! That will solve your problem. That does a reasonable

point to make. Two years ago we had this young child dying on the shore,

and it created a swell of sympathy for refugees. Now this belt creates

another impression altogether. The air. We have to stop this, we cannot

cope with it. We are in the middle of this and... Thank you all as ever

for a challenging discussion. That's all we have time

for this week, but do join Dateline London next week,

same time, same place. The weekend has had something of a

mixed art, depending on where you are across the British trials. For

some, decent spells of sunshine, although do not hold me to Matt,

staying in their right to the course