18/11/2017 Dateline London

Hello and welcome

to Dateline London.

I'm Jane Hill.

This week, we discuss

Zimbabwe and its future,

and look at another apparently

difficult few days

in the Brexit talks.

Is there stalemate between Britain

and the rest of the EU?

Joining me: the Sunday Telegraph

columnist Janet Daley,

the American writer and broadcaster

Jef Mcallister, the Africa

specialist Dr Vincent Magombe

and the Irish Times correspondent

Suzanne Lynch.

Welcome to you all.

Thanks for being with us today.

When is a coup not a coup?

Zimbabwe's military put 93 year

old Robert Mugabe under house

arrest on Wednesday.

He's been in power for 37 years but,

as we go to air, tens of thousands

of people are out in Harare

demanding he steps down.

He was briefly was seen in public

on Friday at a university

graduation ceremony but,

Vincent, is it army generals

who are currently in charge?

You mentioned the graduation. He

actually slept through its!

He was

caught napping, yes.

I think what's

happening is so interesting. In

Africa, in the midst of pain and

struggle, there is a lot of fun that

goes on. I can only smile at what's

going on in Zimbabwe. First of all,

it is a coup that is not a coup. A

president that is not a president.

In a certain way, in a more serious

way, I think we can comfortably say

that Robert Mugabe's political

journey is at an end. He is

politically dead. I wish in very

good health, but let him respect...

These are African traditions.

Something where we say old people

are supposed to be the wise ones.

Usually they have a lot of sense.

Young people sit around the fire and

a telephone lots of good wings.

That's Mugabe do the right thing,

let him respect his age. This is

good for Africa because I'm in my

own country, Uganda, you have 70

something years, there's an article

in the Constitution which serve the

limit is 75. As we speak, there are

protests across the country. To say,

please don't change that article.

What are these olds fellas doing for

Africa? They were liberators,

McGarvey was a liberator, he got

Mansford of people, even if he gave

it to the wrong people. -- Mugabe.

But he liberated Zimbabwe from white

rule. He has destroyed his own

credibility trying to hang onto

power until he is 100.

Trying to

create a family dynasties.

Is this

word suggestion that I will die the

president and I will be given the

biggest type of, those types of

Soviet sendoff. I think he's not

going to get that now. He could get

its because they are doing it in the

right way. There is this thing of

trying to say we will respect him,

he is an elder, a liberator. That's

not you Millie 87. But he's being

very stubborn.

-- but he is being

very stubborn, let's not humiliate

him.

I think today is, for me, the real

mark of what might come. The people

going to the streets. Where the

pro-democracy activists? The

Zimbabwe army is going to hand power

to them? They have to fight for it.

Veterans and others are trying to

steal the space within that arch.

What they want to do is then you

have... It's going to be a battle.

It's going to be fought for by the

pro-democracy forces.

The

93-year-old himself is...

He is a

nonentity.

They are adamant that

they won't onto power.

How much of a

revolution is it if it is about

putting in a new person he was not

particularly young?

That is why we

can have comfort in the fact that

the pro-democracy movement has been

going for a while now, and if the

leadership has sometimes been

fractured between this and bass, but

the people have been maturing. All

my hope is that they will not come

out and keep coming out until they

force the army, because the army is

not...

Pro-democracy forces are also

-- always united at this point.

Remember the Arab Spring, there is a

terrible lesson there. You get rid

of the great old man, a sentimental

attachment to the liberator and you

end up with chaos, or maybe went up

with democracy. We won't know for a

while whether this is terrible news

or good use.

The next few days will

show us, if we see the pro-democracy

movement refuses to go off the

streets. The right thing is to set

up a transition government that

includes all the groups.

The Athens

has to be democratic elections. Are

they going to call them? -- the

Athens has to be.

This is one man now being removed.

All the power structure around him

continues. All of the intelligence,

all the corruption, all of the very

tight levers of power. It's like

getting rid of Stalin to get

barrier. You're right that the

fundamental long-term direction has

to be in favour of democracy, but

the democracy movement has been

crushed before. Not entirely crushed

but we have been through this and a

lot of people have been killed. They

have to be reticent about putting

their necks on the line. It is a

coup that is not a coup. In order to

looks legitimate inside as well as

with the outside world, all the

forces are still going to try to

hold on as much as they can.

The

point of hope is that we have

already been there. We had a

transition government. It shows that

even McGarvey himself at one point

or another started realising that

you can't just do it your own way.

-- Robert Mugabe.

They're in for

tracing the pro-democracy

demonstrations and manipulating

them, that's the danger. You read a

manipulating in the name of? China

is a big player in this. China is

becoming an economic superpower in

the developing world. It's like

Russia used to be during the Cold

War. That was ideological, this is

economic. It means there is a

potential confrontation with the

West briefly fluids over this

region. This isn't being conducted

in a vacuum.

Also the river the

other countries around, and to

seizing that this week in held as a

mediator is interesting considering

the issues happening internally. The

power struggles within the ANC, and

simmer being such a problematic

figure himself.

African Union is

just a club of the same holds...

Thunder is divided and ruptured

within its own format. We have

Botswana, the president of Botswana,

he said categorically that Mugabe go

immediately. You now have very

interesting thing because it forces

from South Africa, you would have

mainly Angolan soldiers but also sad

African soldiers, we have a very

interesting development. We have

this new president who seems to be

trying to say, look, we shouldn't

move into just supports lack of

democracy. He started attacking the

Dos Santos family. He fired Dos

Santos's daughter. I think there is

no unanimity to say we just want to

impose rule. But in Uganda, in

Africa, in some way, it's the

activists, pro-democracy movement,

that will define whether anything

goes our way or not.

In terms of the

next few weeks, you are clearly

saying the pro-democracy forces have

to be united here, and that we are

in a really pivotal few days?

There

wasn't an issue of demonstrations, I

was going to cover demonstrations to

sort out that thing. Now it has come

but we are all so seeing some

fractures within the movement on the

street. We see their tactics, to

grab that space. Where the movements

who demonstrated just a year ago?

There were thousands. At that time

they were facing the army, police.

By the way, not scared. Let them

come out. Let them organise

themselves like the Egyptian people.

The Egyptian thing showed is that

when people come together, they can

make a little change. Here we have

so many factors. Luck is on their

side. Mugabe is going, that was the

main block. Now we have the army in

two minds. I believe the army will

want to do the right thing.

Otherwise... It will continue facing

a lot of pressure as they go on. The

economy will continue collapsing.

Facing pressure in the streets.

Demonstrations in the streets always

eventually dissipate. Unless you can

turn it into institutional change,

systematic political change and

reform, it goes nowhere and very

often ends in violence. Really

bloodcurdling scenes, tanks in the

streets. Demonstrations on the

streets are a sign of really serious

disillusion as dissatisfaction. But

they don't in themselves...

If we

have a transition government

including the opposition, it will

tell us where the government, were

this movement is going.

Quickly, do

we know where Grace Mugabe is? Does

it matter?

She is hiding in the

toilet! And is juggling! She was the

targets of the army officers. -- I'm

just joking. We heard she might have

gone to Namibia. It doesn't matter

where she is right now. She cannot

take power.

The fact that she was

the target of this not a coup means

that it was a personal thing. It was

about particular personalities, not

about institutional change. You get

rid of the person you don't like,

but in the person you like and

that's the end of that?

Just like in

Uganda, we are standing up. Some are

buoyant have to do that.

We will see

if that pans out in the coming days

and weeks.

and weeks.

The word stalemate has been

heard again this week -

not for the first time -

in relation to the Brexit talks.

Britain's Prime Minister

was on a charm offensive

at a summit in Sweden,

Secretary of State David Davis was

avuncular in interviews in Berlin -

while Jean Claude Juncker

was reminding everyone

that the clock is ticking.

Meanwhile the Chancellor

delivers his budget

to Westminster on Wednesday -

will the contents of

Philip Hammond's ministerial red box

be enough to keep things on track

and save Theresa May's premiership?

A lot to chew over there. Is that a

nervous laugh?

These negotiations

any more, this is a hostage crisis!

The conditions under which the

prisoner will be released won't be

discussed until the money is counted

on the table. You have to remember

that for the EU, it's terribly

important that this all looks as

bloody as possible and as difficult

as possible, in order to discourage

anybody else who might get this

idea, don't try this at home. They

could break for little reason the

wheel because it was a tiny failing

economy, a basket case and the

population didn't want to leave the

EU. That's not the case with

Britain. Written as the

second-largest contributor to the

budget. It's understandable that

they should be worried about the

money. They're creating now this

smoke screen about, you may

disagree, about their hard border on

Ireland. Nobody wants a hard order

with violence. The body in Britain,

Northern Ireland 's, Southern

Highlands, once a hard order with

Ireland. -- nobody in. This could be

resolved quite easily but the EU is

stoking this up so that it doesn't

look as if it is all about money.

They have admitted that progress has

been made on the business of the

rights of the users and is living in

Britain and vice versa.

That seems

to be the one area where there has

been some progress.

It been a good

idea for Britain to save from the

off all new user dozens living in

Britain will have the same rights.

That would have not only the right

thing but it would have frankly

wrong-footed the EU response. We

couldn't have been fused of using

them as pawns. We are where we are.

-- couldn't have been accused. It is

the money that is the issue. It is

also the fact that the EU is

determined to make this book as

difficult, and with the Corporation

of a whole cater of people within

Britain who don't want to see this

happen. As much of a sense of doom

and despair as is politically

possible. The people who write to me

and communicate with me are

self-selecting, but every time John

Sergeant opens his mouth, a million

Britons remember why they voted

believe that a all right to me. --

John Claude Junker.

If we had a second referendum now,

the vote would probably be 60-40.

Let's not debate about that! We can

debate money because we hear that in

the coming days, Theresa May is

perhaps going to talk about is, of

course that is denied, but talk

about increasing what might be on

the table. Is it about money for

you?

I disagree with everything

Janet said. The money is a blip in

turn sells the size of the European

budget, European economies. No one

release has about the money.

No one

cares about the money?

The Britons

do. It is still not that big a deal.

Free Europe, Europe is the most

important thing. If Britain wants to

leave, it has got it... To me, this

reminds me of my wife who went to

Catholic school and in second grade

or the eight-year-old asks, can God

make a square circle? She pondered

this and pondered this and didn't

get the right answer. The sister

rupture with a ruler because she

said, sister, there is no square

circle, God can make it. God can do

anything! I feel that's the way the

Brexiteer Zaha. They believe that

everything can be happy, that we can

have the cake and eat it. -- the way

the Brexiteer Zaha. That you can

have Ireland inside the EU in a

customs union, or you can have it

not. You can't have...

Can I just...

The Irish premier has said...

Let's

hear from Suzanne.

This is a very

serious issue. We have got, just a

recap, three issues to be resolved

before Europe says we can move on to

a new set of things. Which is the

trade relationship between Britain

and Europe. One of those issues now,

the Irish order, is an important

issue. No one wants to return to a

hard order. What's not -- what has

now emerged that Britain does he do

have a plan to avoid that. Now

Ireland has had to be anti-in the

last few days, and really want a

written commitment before they go on

to phase too that there will be no

order. They're worried that if it's

not agreed now, it will get lost in

everything else next year whether

trade negotiations start. I can see

Britain -- I can see why Britain

want to discuss the border with the

trade relationship next year.

Islanders caught in the middle. Are

we looking at a situation of an EU

summit in four weeks which is

crucial, we looking at a situation

where Ireland will essentially veto

moving onto the next stage?

Islanders try to get Britain and

Brussels happy but there are

hundreds of officials in Dublin and

Brussels working on this. On the

second issue, to pick up again what

you said, this idea of Europe

playing hardball, of course it's

going to be tough. The day Britain

moved to leave, the head of the

European Council said they have

gone, they have left. Our job is to

look after the 27 other countries

here. Of course they're going to be

tough and strive to maintain... Yes,

they want to trade relationship to

next but unfortunately I believe it

is 37 countries versus one. A very

important country with a big

contribution to the budget but I

don't big it should be any surprise

that the 27 countries will work

together.

I'm curious what lies

behind a wry smile!

I've got too

many things about Africa in my mind

to be bothered about what happens in

Britain! Watching people squabbling,

not like kids, but really squabbling

in a way that's... If Brexit is

happens come up, Britain would still

be living. But what I suspect is, I

would not be surprised if Britain

just crashes out without a deal. But

you know what? Because our friends,

the Brexiteer 's, as I suspect from

a long time since that started, or

types of people who don't mind

having in Britain, even with lots of

problems, Britain is not going to be

Uganda. Many of us will see things

going down, jobs, but you have

skills, industry, everything. They

are people, these Brexiteer 's, who

don't mind that. Further, what

matters is that we are running the

show. People like me go home.

No,

no.

Parliamentary sovereignty...

But

that question was at the heart of

the referendum. You want me to go...

African migrants were not in the

question at all!

Is because we are

at the unspoken victims. I'm telling

you. You point a lot about these

Europeans, that's OK. Because for

us, you cannot send us the way...

Where are we going?

Commonwealth

immigration actually suffered

because we had to let in an

unlimited number of EU migrants.

Britain wants to stop that.

I'm

sorry, that is true.

On the

sovereignty issue, what was really

interesting this week was this

debate that is rambling on about how

much MPs are going to have over the

shape Brexit. A lot of people were

saying that they're not accepting

the referendum result. Another way

of looking at it is a deep irony

that one of the reasons people wants

to get out was to restore

sovereignty of Parliament.

The

people who suddenly have got this

absolutely mad sentimental

attachment to the idea that

Parliament should have the say,

those are the people who have been

giving it away for 40 years. Those

of the people who accepted the

committees act of 1972 which meant

that European law to Presidents over

British law. They kiss parliamentary

sovereignty goodbye happily.

Let's

not rerun the referendum. We have a

deadline looming, December 14-15,

not very far away. Next week we have

Philip Hammond at the budget. We

read plenty about crisis in Theresa

May's leadership, how is she going

on? Your thoughts on the budget,

what it might achieve? Where it

takes us in terms of this overall

broker debates at Theresa May's

premiership.

I don't think it takes

us very far with the Brexit debate.

Theresa May is certainly very weak,

she has a very weak government. On

the other hand, Germany has no

government at all. Angela Merkel has

not been able to form a coalition.

It's conceivable that she will have

to call elections before the end of

the year. When we go on about the

weakness of this government, we have

to remember that we are quite

spoiled in this country by stable

majority parliamentary government.

In Europe, where they have to have

consensus and coalition, the whole

thing is on a much more delicate

balance. The whole chemistry of

this, with macron, with his

polyphonic ideas about a united

Europe led by France, he is eager to

displace Angela Merkel as the most

parable leader in the EU. The power

structure on the other side of this

equation is in flux as well.

In

terms of Hammonds, he may not be

Chancellor for much longer if you

read a speculation. He may have a

budget and then because of the

internal politics, if there is a

reshuffle, he may be gone. Who

knows? There isn't a lot of running

room. There's not a lot of extra

money anyone can find, given

austerity and his commitments to

continuing things. There may be some

changes aimed at young people on

housing, on students. I'm sure it

will be clever but I don't big it

can be a game changer under the

circumstances.

The problem with the

budget is that it is trying to save

Theresa May. I agree with lots of

the Labour politicians who were

saying the budget should be about

the people. Not about the problems.

Which people?

You don't know who the

people are?

The intergenerational

war that is being stoked up is very

dangerous. Politically and socially.

It's quite mythical. Older people

are not disparaging about the lack

of property at the lack of housing

for young people at all. They're

worried about their children and

grandchildren. It's a very unhealthy

as progress is being to stoke up and

intergenerational conflict.

Or

they're saying is to do the right

thing. Build houses, do whatever

infrastructure. Help the country to

grow.

To go back to the Germany

issue, you write about these

negotiations in Berlin but these

happen all the time. Four years ago

was the same. Although I do accept

Angela Merkel was more we can double

last election. I figure Brexiteer

prefer her to be in the driving seat

here rather than France. She is very

pragmatic. I firmly believe that

Germany really will decide how this

goes. All the top of Michel Barnier,

it will be Angela Merkel and a

manual macron.

Try this again next

time if you possibly can for a lot

more passionate debates. See you

next week. Goodbye.