25/11/2017 Dateline London

Hello and welcome to

Dateline London, I'm Jane Hill.

This week, we discuss the state

of the UK's finances

after the Budget,

whether this could be the end of

the German Chancellor's reign,

and assess the prospects

for the people of Zimbabwe,

now Robert Mugabe has gone.

My guests are,

from Germany,

Stefanie Bolzen of Die Welt,

UK Conservative political

commentator Alex Deane,

from Bloomberg News,

senior writer Stephanie Baker,

and the Italian writer and

film maker Annalissa Piras.

Welcome to you all.

But before we discuss those events,

we do want to take a moment to focus

on the horrific attack in northern

Sinai, where more than 300 people

have been killed in a bomb

and gun attack on a mosque,

during Friday prayers.

As we go to air, no group has

claimed it carried out the attack.

Although the state prosecutor in

Cairo said the gunman -- gunmen were

carrying flags of the so-called

Islamic State. It is a quite

horrific attack, and Annalisa, the

scale and the coordination of this

is something that has not been seen

in this region for a very long time.

It is unprecedented and we know very

little at the moment. So it is

difficult to draw conclusions, but

two things stand out, one, this is

an attack on the Sufi community, a

spiritual form of Islam, which Isis

sees as a direct rival. They bring

our youngsters from this idea that

Islam can be only violence, they are

non-violent and spiritual, silly are

a direct rival. The fact they are

attacking them with such force is

pretty scary. The second point that

I would think is important is that

Egypt is a very strong country, and

what we are seeing here is that this

kind of strong military response

does not work against Isis. That is

another scary aspect of what has

happened. So probably, we need

really to think what we need to

change in our fight against this

extremism.

Alex, your concern about

the aftermath of this, what happens

next as a result?

I think the point

about Sufism was spot on. Those who

view Islam as sort of monolithic

faith where everyone thinks the

same, that is not true. This sort of

thing demonstrates that. Divisions

within Islam are as important

between the divisions between Islam

and other faiths. But the other

aspect I take on this, this is very

early days but this demonstrates

once again that the threat posed by

Isis and Islamist terror is not just

a Western problem, it is a problem

for every nation around the world.

Where I made them are from what

Annalisa was saying was that must

inevitably, when someone wants to do

something -- nothing but kill you,

it almost inevitably has a military

response. I don't know if the

Egyptians got it right so far, but I

think a lot of people you can

negotiate with. There is no other

settlement you can reach with these

people other than violence.

Stephany, your take on that?

President RCC has justified his

crackdown by saying he must crush

Isis. He has a major security

problem on the Sinai Peninsula, and

he really does need to rethink their

strategy because up until now you

have not seen her tax, Egyptian

militants attack Coptic Christians,

this is a game changer and they need

to go back to the drawing board and

rethink. There is a concern that the

crackdown in Egypt will go even

further, and this is a really

delicate balancing act he needs to

strike.

I disagree with political

crackdown on freedom of expression

but one of the reasons people act as

they do in this region is that they

know that if they do not put their

own house in order, the Israelis are

always willing to do so. Sinai is a

particular area of sensitivity. But

the Israelis and the end have no

respect for national borders if they

think something is a threat to them.

How can they see Islamist activity

like this and not take action?

We

will see how this develops in the

coming days. Doubtless that will be

continuing coverage of that story on

BBC News in the coming days.

So, to events earlier this week,

and Britain's Chancellor,

Philip Hammond,

delivered his Budget,

with announcements about housing

and the Health Service,

and £3 billion set aside

for Brexit preparations.

His performance was broadly well

received, but the forecasts

for growth in the economy over

the next few years are bleak.

And all of this, of course,

against the backdrop

of the stuttering Brexit talks.

Stephanie - let's talk

about the OBR forecast.

For the next few years, it is

difficult times.

It is, and most of

the reasons they downgraded the

growth forecast is down to

acknowledging that the forecasts for

productivity growth have been off

target. They have missed those

forecasts again and again. I think

this was a politically successful

Budget for Philip Hammond, it has

saved him in the short term, but it

did outline a very bleak low growth

future for the UK. Her by wages will

be below 2008 levels for the

foreseeable future. I think that is

really the main lytic will challenge

that they face, that is only going

to get worse. -- political

challenge. It has been made worse by

Brexit because we have the ball in

sterling and a rise in inflation

which has meant that wages just

before the vote, we had just turned

the corner in terms of which is

outpacing inflation and now all

those gains have been wiped out.

The

stats on wages, they are saying

until, even by 2022, wages will not

be any better than they were in

2008.

That will start to bite as

time goes on politically. I think he

has done the best he could do by

sprinkling bits of money here and

there, trying to assuage any

critics, a bit to the NHS, a bit for

housing, first-time buyers and the

like, but the significant thing is

that the old BR forecast did not

will include Brexit in the

calculations. For instance on

productivity, most economists think

Brexit will make the productivity

probably even worse. We have already

seen a decline in business

investment because of the

uncertainty over the terms of the

deal. And likewise, they sing

tariffs on imported goods, that will

mean higher prices for consumers,

lower tax revenues. And I keep going

back to the figure that was used

during the campaign of 350 million

extra, per week for the NHS and now

we're facing a squeeze on public

services. Instead of trying to

balance the books, Hammond has

actually acquiesced and decided to

just borrow more in order to keep

the peace.

Was that his only option?

Alex, what is your reading of that

balancing act?

There is a lot to

unpack. I think productivity is a

problem facing most developed

countries but it is certainly an

issue. I thought it was a good

Budget. I think he is relatively

constrained in what he can do, not

least because some would argue that

what this country needs is some tax

cuts to generate economic stimulus

and in the current political

climate, those are difficult to

sell. The Conservative Party does

not have a majority because of an

election it did not have to call. So

that is the context for this

Chancellor. But bearing those

constraints on mine, I thought there

were some attractive things about

this Budget. I thought that extra

tax credits for research and a

moment indicated positivity about

the future in economic terms. That

is something I thought is very

welcome. And it was the kind of

thing that was lacking in the

campaign that the Conservative Party

ran earlier in the year. There was

very little that was positive or

optimistic about the future.

Thinking about that sort of thing, I

thought, was excellent. And retail

politics is always important, I

really liked more funding for

schools when students take up

further maths and higher maths

studies, I thought there was an

indication that we were serious

about supporting tough subjects that

equip people for the future.

Stefanie, your take on a?

Obviously

from a German perspective, the 27 do

not look so much at the political

significance because Hammond was not

in a good position because he was a

Remainer and has had a difficult

time surviving.

A lot of people in

his own party are not so keen on

him.

But in Germany, it is a time of

confirming that Britain itself has

kicked itself in a difficult

situation economically because there

is so much uncertainty about Brexit

at a time when you look at the TEU

27 and Germany, growth is picking up

everywhere and the UK is going the

opposite way. Some people might

think this is just confirming that

Brexit was the wrong decision.

Alex,

you think it is happening

everywhere? In terms of

productivity.

The problem is that

Europe is picking up growth, it is

growing, and Britain is going down.

So the old BR think -- Obi are, they

qualified the drop by 1.3 this year.

-- the OBR. By 2020 there will be 20

billion less in the coppers of the

state, and this is without

considering the fact Brexit. So

getting out of the single market,

getting less investment in, and

possibly a no deal situation, that

means that the macro picture of the

economy in Britain is very, very

bleak.

That is untrue, manufactory

is at an all-time high. --

manufacturing. GDP is fine,

certainly compared to the rivals we

face in developed countries.

We were

touching on wage levels. People

employed in the gig economy, the

uncertainty.

Most of the new jobs

generated under this government are

full-time, any suggestion they are

kind of part-time or zero hours work

is a mess. But moreover, some of the

kind of totemic indicators people

talk about is if they are true, --

as if they are true, they are just

not. More EU nationals than ever in

the UK.

This is the OBR, which is

made of confident people, and they

are forecasting 20 billion less by

2020. Without taking into account

Brexit or crashing out of the single

market. This is not a pretty

picture.

You have been saying this

sort of thing since you made your

breakthrough disaster movie

documentary.

Annelise is making the

point that the OBR is independent.

Let Alex just come back.

We were

told before the referendum that by

the same sorts of August bodies that

if we voted to Liebenberg triggering

a profound economic shocks and go

into recession. Not only have we not

come into recession, our economy

continues to grow. That is the case

with most economies around the

world. Most of these dire

predictions that people seem to want

to be true about our country simply

not true.

That is because Brexit has

not taken place yet.

Why do you keep

saying you want to see 350 million

for the NHS when that suggestion was

all about when we leave and we

haven't left?

We will leave that

there.

Germany is without a government -

Chancellor Angela Merkel

is technically acting Chancellor,

because talks about forming

a coalition following September's

splintered election result

have not been fruitful.

As we go to air, it seem

the SPD leader Martin Schulz

has softened his position,

and talks will resume,

but nothing is certain -

could there be another

German election?

We all know what the knock-on effect

might be. Where do you think talks

are? Crystal ball time.

It is a

difficult thing. It is a very fluid

situation. On Monday, Martin Schulz

said categorically they are not

going into a coalition against, now

it is Saturday and he has said,

well, we have to consider it,

because it is our responsibility.

Someone has twisted his arm.

People

within the party but mainly

President Steinmeier, he obviously

said, this is a moment of great

responsibility for your party so

Martin Schulz yesterday was as a

youth Congress of his party and

tried to sell the idea and it did

not go well. Very much so within the

party for the time being it looks

like a majority does not want it.

They will have a vote on this so

even if the top of the party might

agree to go into coalition with

Angela Merkel, the party members

might vote it down. So it is tricky.

It could have that situation where

for several weeks on paper, the

coalition has been agreed, but your

sense is it could be voted down?

At

the end of the day it looks like the

SPD will always be the losers

because even by this situation, a

new election is triggered, they will

be hammered in the polls. They will

be seen as not wanting to take

responsibility. Angela Merkel could

take a step back again, and is now

watching everybody collapsing around

her. Everyone is in trouble. But be

careful about this, because they are

saying in the party they want to

have a change of leadership and it

is growing by the day.

Didn't she

say she preferred fresh elections to

a minority government?

It is not

clear that that will result in a

stronger government. It is a real

gamble for her, especially given

that the last elections, the CDU and

the SPD share of the vote went down.

Despite the fact that the German

economy now is booming, that is the

most remarkable disconnect. But I

think clearly, Angela Merkel is a

wounded finger at it is all the more

remarkable because a couple of

months ago, she seemed invincible,

she was the European leader who took

down Trump and seemed to be the

woman in the driving seat in Europe

on Brexit. And now it looks like she

will remain distracted by internal

domestic politics. For the

perceivable future.

And at the risk

of bringing it back to the UK, it is

a German internal situation, but we

have this, the Brexit talks are a

backdrop inevitably, Angela Merkel

portrayed as the calm hand on the

tiller to all of this, the heart of

Europe where the people -- whether

people like it or not. If this

continues, or they have fresh

elections, what does it do to the

Brexit talks?

It does not bode well

for Brexit or for the rest of Europe

either. If Germany is paralysed

until February, maybe later, waiting

for new elections, that is a

disaster for everybody. Because we

do not have only the problem of the

Brexit negotiations, we have a lot

of other things going on with the

Trump administration behaving as it

is, with Russia's instability and

belligerence, instability growing

around Europe, not to have a strong

leadership as we are hoping to have

after the election, it is a big

problem.

Is it worrying, Alex?

I am

much more optimistic about the lack

of government activity. I think

people tend to get on better.

Belgium was without a government

with Russia for 18 months and it is

the best economic performance were

decades. I was surprised that Angela

Merkel put so much effort into the

attempt to build a coalition that I

thought was not going to work. The

so-called Jamaica coalition, black,

yellow and green, because it seemed

it would not work out between the

old liberals, who are four more

free-market than most people, and

the Greens, who like most green

movements are like watermelons,

green on the outside, red in the

centre, very anti-free-market. They

were never really going to be on the

same page. I think she is going to

go back to the polls.

Like having a

coalition with the DUP! The problem

we see in Germany is something we

will see in other countries, we will

see it in Italy with the next

elections, the fragmentation of the

voters. This is irreversible.

Not in

the UK, more than 85% voted for two

parties.

You are making the point of

that and lots of countries it has

proved to be the case.

In Britain,

regardless of the system, it locks

in one government or the other,

still the Tories failed to find a

majority. So they had to make a deal

with the DUP. So the biggest picture

of what is going on is, are our

democracy is capable and ready to

face what is happening in the minds

of the voters?

In Germany that is a

very important point, we do not want

a grand coalition because we didn't

have an opposition in Germany, when

we had the refugee crisis, there was

an overall feeling that we need a

stronger position in Parliament, if

this is not happening, we get more

votes for the right-wing party, that

is why I think many people are wary

of another coalition and we might

have the same situation.

We will be

discussing this in the weeks to

come, for sure. Let's turn our

attention is further afield.

There was euphoria in Harare

as Emmerson Mnangagwa was

sworn in as Zimbabwe's President.

He told the 60,000 people packed

into the National Stadium

in the capital that elections

will be held next year,

and he promised to stamp out

corruption.

Robert Mugabe had

ruled for 37 years.

How different will the new

President be, Annalisa?

What are the panellists' thoughts?

Here 75, with a short break in the

mid-90s he has been a minister since

1980, which is before some of your

more fortunate viewers will have

been born. He is hardly the

freshfaced champion of new values

and ideas. My other concern about

President is that in a week that he

has been lucky when he committed his

own massacre, or presided over it.

When he served as minister for

security, he presided over the

persecution of minority people in

Zimbabwe, and the International

Association of genocide scholars

puts the figure of deaths at around

20,000. I can only concede he seems

to have got away with it, because he

has avoided responsibility, although

almost everyone concerned thinks he

is responsible, and because of the

timing. But let us not pretend he is

a good guy.

For once, I agree with

Alex! Remember, he is still under US

sanctions, and I think people forget

that, he was so tied to Mugabe and

his regime that the US Government

sanctioned him. There are still US

sanctions against a number of big

Zimbabwe companies, and for him to

succeed, he will really need to

unlock funding on the international

financial community, from the IMF

and the World Bank and others, in

order to survive.

The economy is

trashed.

It is on its knees, it

hasn't had its own currency for

eight years. I think we will not

really know whether what kind of

leader he will be until the next

elections, is he capable of holding

truly free and fair elections? Does

he realise it is in his own

self-interest to sort out not only

talk the talk but walk the walk,

really follow through on these

policies in order to unlock the

funding to try to rescue the

economy?

The responsibility of the

international community, Stephanie

was reminding us that Zimbabwe is

crippled by debt, it needs urgently

something to help it cope with 9

billion debt. So the problem was

that Mugabe was in the same

situation many, many times and he

kept being bailed out without really

proper strict conditions put on him.

So the question will be really, the

rest of the world, being strong

enough to say, fine, you can get

help, but this time, you need to do

something to reform.

And what of the

role of the opposition? Guests

around this table last week said the

MDC absolutely have its game, have

to be united, particularly if we are

really going to see fresh elections

next year. There has to be an

opposition as well to have a

democratic election.

And there will

be fears, so how will this

collection evolve? Will it be

dominated by balance will be free

and fair? -- by violence. What does

the international community do?

This

man's nickname is the Crocodile, so

he knows he has manipulated... He

knows how to manipulate that system.

If I were a minority person in

Zimbabwe, I would view this coming

President, this new presidency, as

bad news, because at least when you

faced Mugabe, you thought there was

going to come a time when it

finishes. This is the new guy, it is

meet the new boss, same as the old

boss. The same person who has been

persecuting you since the 1980s.

So

the euphoria we saw on the streets

in Harare this week...

It is natural

to show relieved to see Mugabe go,

and the massacres which were

inflicted on the minority in

Zimbabwe were not against them, so

see Mugabe go was per se a good

thing but this is the ultimate

continuity candidate. He has just

done three years as Vice President.

People will say when it was not a

military?, whereas he was the actual

military guy, they pushed Mugabe out

and brought him back. He remains

indebted to the military for that

power that he has gained.

But in

previous situations, we have seen

sometimes the military holding the

power, and definitely with the fall

of Mugabe, there is a sense that

this kind of corrupted regime cannot

go on any more. So sometimes you

might see that the transition guy

that is remote controlled by the

military might actually assist,

because he knows the system might

actually assist the transition to a

more modern country.

We wait to see.

A degree of agreement!

That's all we have

time for this week.

Do join us again, same time,

same place, next week.

But for now, thank you

for watching and goodbye.