02/12/2017 Dateline London


02/12/2017

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LineFromTo

Hello and welcome

to Dateline London.

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I'm Shaun Ley.

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President Donald Trump

is celebrating his first

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legislative triumph,

after the US Senate passed tax

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cuts in the early hours

of Saturday morning.

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Should he be looking

over his shoulder now his former

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national security adviser has

admitted lying to the FBI

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about contacts with Russia?

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We'll also discuss why Ireland's

border could be a Brexit

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barrier come Monday.

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With me in the studio:

The Irish writer and

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broadcaster Brian O'Connell.

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The Algerian journalist

Nabila Ramdani.

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Jeffrey Kofman, who spent many years

working for the US Networks

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and the UK political commentator

Steve Richards.

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Welcome to you all.

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Welcome to you all.

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Robert Mueller, the special

prosecutor examining alleged links

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between the Trump presidential

campaign and Russia,

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has claimed an important scalp.

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Mike Flynn, who resigned early

in the administration

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because he lied to the vice

president about Russia has now

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admitted he lied to the FBI, too.

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The question being asked

in Washington is whether his

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admission is part of a deal

with Mueller that could

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take the investigation

into the White House.

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Does this now smack of a plea

bargain?

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Yes, absolutely. And I think we can

record December one, 2017 as both

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the best of the worst day of Tom's

presidency so far. He has got this

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massive tax cut passed by the Senate

by a hair, and now the pressure is,

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the news is tightening around the

White House. And if not him then

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certainly those close. What we see

from Flint is that in this agreement

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he is pointing fingers at senior

White House officials and the US

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media is right with speculation that

it is Tomson-in-law., 'sand he

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stated this publicly very blue back

many times is that it will be over

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by Christmas that he can be won,

that is not the case.

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This is a case of,'s alternate

reality catching up with him.

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In terms of the practicalities of

this, how big a distraction is this?

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I think it is going to be running

background theme throughout his

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entire presidency, however long it

lasts. I don't think it will

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overwhelm him because he's not the

type of figure to be overwhelmed by

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a single issue. He will move onto

other factors. In fact, in some

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ways, though I know what you mean

about the tax cut been the best day

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because he's got some legislation

through, I think the implications of

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that will be just as serious as

Russia. Because it is part of an

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entirely incoherent approach to the

role of Government. The promised to

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be the most active in the history of

US politics, spending like no other.

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More capital spending than current

spending. Is introduced to cut which

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he argues will generate growth. When

that doesn't happen, his whole pitch

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to the so-called left behind, I

think we'll be found to be exposed

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and heavy incoherent. And the tax

cut is part of that. The Russia

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story, I think, as you implied,

hasn't quite got him yet. By

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implication it has but not directly.

And while that remains the case it

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will be a background story rather

than one which brings in throughout.

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Many of the supporters, what they

expect, the establishment are doing

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their bit to try to bring him down.

In the sense, it is almost factored

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out. The Trump presidency is a test

of the Brazilians of American

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institutions of democracy in a way

which, in our lifetime, we have

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never seen. Can the courts remain

independent? Can his meddling be

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held to account? And what we're

seeing is so far, yes. His attempts

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to knock Miller over were

unsuccessful and now it is coming

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back at him. But on the tax cuts, it

is so interesting sitting in the UK

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talking about this because we talk

about what Brexit is, generational

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change which will affect your

grandchildren. And probably gone in

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four or eight years. This tax cut is

a generational tax cut this is going

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to affect America weather Here is

born in a year, at the end of his

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first term or survives to terms,

this is a pivot for the American

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economy. He claims it is

middle-class. Every independent

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analysis suggest that this is a

massive game for the wealthy. The

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and the working class.

They get a tax cut but it is not the

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same sort of proportion on the same

scale.

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In time it diminishes.

So eventually it would disappear.

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In terms of what that means, he is

now at least delivering. He has

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concrete evidence that he has done

something. Isn't that going to be

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more important to a lot of voters

than whether or not there is an

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investigation ongoing?

No, I think that the latest

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controversy, I would like to think

that the latest controversy will

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really be the beginning of the end

for Trump. But there has been so

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many low points in his wretched

presidency that it is really

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difficult to gauge the significance

of it all. But I think that, you

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know, as you know, official

enquiries can take a very long time

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and it actually,'s erratic behaviour

and increasingly demonic behaviour

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that got him through a campaign that

he didn't look likely to win in the

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first place. And I am of the opinion

that societies deserve the

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politicians that they get. And Tom

personifies a great nation in

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crisis. And for this reason he will

be fighting tooth and nail against

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his opponents and he isn't an

immensely powerful position to do

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so. And meanwhile, he's announcing

next week that he is going to move

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the American Embassy to Jerusalem.

So this is after the provocative

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move and so typical of disgraceful

leaders to try to create red

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herrings and try to make out that

all problems are in foreign policy,

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meanwhile it is a massive

distraction from the huge problems

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at home. He is dealing with a hugely

divided, unequal nation at the

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moment. And Americans have only

themselves to blame for putting him

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in that position and indeed

sustaining this state of affairs.

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I know you're Canadian by birth. But

you know the United States very

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well. Do they have to accept...

I think it is true. We have a deeply

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divided nation and I was just in the

midwest. There is a festering sense

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of resentment and anger. There were

so many people struggling with two

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jobs, to stay just above water. They

are not saving anything.

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And they feel that the world is

passing them by. And he spoke to

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that. And he to that. The solution

to your problem not realistic. Has

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he talked about bringing call-back?

It is just not realistic. We are

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about to see another wave of

technology, putting truck drivers

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and taxi drivers out of work, with

automation. There was a real sense

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of fear, and he speaks to that. I

think his constituency, that court

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is there.

Is he distracted now by the Russian

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investigation?

Can he avoid being distracted by it?

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He will just move the agenda onto

something else. He gets up and goes

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on twitter every morning and does

this. And here's the rest of the

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world talking about some obscure

right-wing group that we've never

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even heard of anyway.

With the retweets of these.

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The BBC needs to look at how much

coverage they give, you know, that

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sort of thing as well. I mean, he is

the presidency presumably we would

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have to get impeachment.

Impeachment is a political process.

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It is not going to happen. It is

probably not going to happen. And

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Mueller, how long will that go on

for? His first term anyway. He has,

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as you say, one not on his

legislative belt so far and he's

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probably happy with that, I would

have thought.

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Could he have more? Is that's their

potential there, now that the

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senators have passed tax cuts? The

resistance that actually this is now

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concrete achievement. Is that the

catalyst for other things to be

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achieved? After a year which, in

legislative terms, has been pretty

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rotten for him.

That is a common challenge for most

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presidents. But it depends what you

mean by other things. The tax cut is

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something that brings together quite

a large part of the Republican

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party. Not least in Washington.

Which has been a kind of region,

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Thatcher party beyond the humour of

Reagan and Thatcher. They of course

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famously imposed spending cuts on

Obama when she wanted to pass a more

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high spending Budget. And so in this

area he brings together the

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Republican party. In most other

areas he doesn't. So, no, I don't

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think this is going to be the

beginning of the legislative

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programme of substantial reform, in

which the Republican party unites

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around him.

It's too disparate and contradictory

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and shallow and incoherent for that

to happen.

But what is happening

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just below the radar is equally

significant. We are seeing a real

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push to put young, very conservative

judges in state and level courts and

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we're seeing a purging of the State

Department. A huge exodus of a

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career diplomats and what some are

calling at crisis level.

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The wrist and even a US ambassador

in South Korea at the moment.

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Absolutely. And career diplomats

have been pushed out. So while it is

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true the legislative agenda may or

may not move forward and he has the

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significant triumph, he has still

has to reconcile the house. But

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there is this cultural shift

happening in the institutions,

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exactly.

And do Republicans think that they

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could run on these tax cuts? In

November of next year, when we have

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the mid-term elections.

They desperately needed this.

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Absolutely. What they're really

running on, I think, is fear. But

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what you see is, if you stand up

like a senator did. The two who have

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injected, they're not running again.

If you stand up in this culture of

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polarised politics, you will be

massacred on social media and by the

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conservative right and so dissent is

something an option.

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You either follow, keep quiet, or

leave.

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You either follow,

keep quiet, or leave.

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Ireland was partitioned in 1922,

but almost immediately the newly

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created Republic and the UK,

of which Northern Ireland remained

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part, agreed their citizens

could move freely back

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and forth across the border.

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During the 30 years of violence

which bedevilled the north

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there were armed soldiers,

vehicle checks and razor wire.

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These days, after two decades

of peace, about the only physical

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sign you're changing countries

are road signs shifting

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between miles and kilometres.

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Brexit could change that.

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By Monday, the UK has to present

to EU negotiators in Brussels ideas

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for avoiding the return of border

posts and checks -

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what's known as a hard border -

or the divorce negotiations can't

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move on to post-Brexit trade.

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In terms of what is possible, and

what can be achieved, why have we

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got to the stage where we are so

close to a deadline and nobody

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really seems to be clear about what

the solutions are? To the border

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problem.

This is not an Irish Government

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view. The Irish Government is one of

27 EU countries. The reason we

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wrapped the stage now is because the

British didn't listen at the

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beginning. If you go back to a month

after the referendum campaign, I

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think it was the 28th of July 2016,

index Kelly turned up in Downing

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Street.

It is Theresa May's first meeting...

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Because she has not been prime

Minster very long.

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First meeting with the new Prime

Minister and they have lunch and

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they agree that all the nice stuff

about frictionless borders and

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things have to continue as they are.

The Irish then went off and went

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bundle the other 26 EU capitals and

they said, this is a crucial issue

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and they explained why, and the

British went off and looked at other

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stuff to do with Brexit said, that

is the Irish sorted out. Of course,

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when it came to setting up the

talks, there is Ireland, is one of

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the three things. That is because

the Irish went around the other 26

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capitals and said we want this, this

is going to be really important.

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They did their homework. They did

their homework and the British kind

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of parked it. Now, there is all

kinds of reasons for that, which we

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can come back to. But in terms of

what is achievable, my understanding

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is that they have not got a deal

yet. The deadline is, I think,

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lunchtime on Monday when Mrs may

goes to meet Jean-Claude Newkirk for

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lunch.

A lot of people in the UK probably

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don't grasp, you might be able to

help with this, is, why is it

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possible for order to operate

between Norway, which is not a

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member of the European Union, and

Sweden, relatively painlessly? Or

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Switzerland, which is not a member,

and France, relatively painlessly?

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But everyone says it is going to be

a potential crisis between Northern

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Ireland and the Republic, one

outside the EU and one in.

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The countries you mentioned have

various arrangements with the single

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market or the EEA or whatever it

happens to be, for which they pay.

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They signed deals and the problem

was Northern Ireland and the British

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and Irish positions, is that both

sides agree that this should be

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frictionless, open, happy-go-lucky

border but the British are saying,

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we don't want to be in the single

market or the customs union and we

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also don't want as was suggested by

the Irish at one point, a dividing

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line down the Irish Sea, so the

border would be there. So you can't

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actually work that Rubik 's cube

out. It is never going to happen. So

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what you've got to do is, I think,

William Hague...

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The former British Foreign

Secretary. He was positing this. You

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go through the Good Friday Agreement

and pull out all the little bits and

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take it apart, that is what European

commissions are for. They've done

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this and gone through it and I think

there is 142 issues...

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Within the Good Friday Agreement?

Because was based on the premise

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that both sides were going to be

within European Union. It goes down

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to things like animal welfare,

crossing the border, things like

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ambulances crossing the border. So

if you have a heart attack on the

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south and the nearest hospital is

across the board on the north, and

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that kind of stuck. And you do with

them one by one. And you have a sort

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of regulatory convergence. This is

where the DUP start jumping up and

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down and saying, no, no, we're not

going to do this.

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This is very interesting. It is fair

to say I was in a broadly

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nationalised part of Northern

Ireland. It is an important issue

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for politicians there. The DUP

deputy leader, who is in charge in

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Westminster, the man who negotiated

the deal was Theresa May's keeper in

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office, said there is no special

status. There will not be a special

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status for Northern Ireland. It will

be treated the same as the UK.

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Theresa May said that I think she is

a woman of her word.

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How on earth are they going to

reconcile? I don't know. And it is

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very interesting if you look back at

the the United Kingdom on this.

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Northern Ireland came up once, when

John Major Tony Blair went to speak

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there. And that was it. They

generated no response, not much

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interest. That was the sole focus.

Now, they are a reminder of two

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prime ministers who lived and

breathed Northern Ireland politics

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and the Good Friday Agreement.

They would've known about the

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significance of the multilayered

complexity is. This peace agreement

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that effectively, not completely,

brought an end to the armed violence

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that was taking place for decades.

On the assumption of Northern

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Ireland being part of the European

Union, like Southern Ireland. And

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suddenly all of those changes. And

Theresa May arrives. She was Home

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Secretary, she obviously had

security issues Northern Ireland but

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beyond that Northern Ireland had not

been on her radar as a senior

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politician. And I think she's hugely

underestimated. In fairness to David

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Davis and others,...

He's the British negotiator.

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The British Brexit secretary in the

United Kingdom. They are acutely

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aware of it. They were logical point

in saying that before we know the

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end agreement, it is very hard to

deal with the Northern Ireland

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situation because until we know the

degree to which we trade is going to

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apply more widely, you can't do with

this. But, as you know, there is a

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huge pressure to get some sort of

sense.

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The Irish Government are not

suggesting that we have to have

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everything glued to the floor before

we move onto the next thing. What

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saying is, you've given us all the

sort of airy fairy, yes, we all

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agree that the border has to be...

The reassurances. In fact, there was

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a British paper produced last

August, I think, where they talked

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about trusted traders in technology

and will kind of stuff, which the EU

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Commission described as magical

thinking. That was all the

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predicament has provided so far. The

Irish now, they're saying give us

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something that we can hang onto, in

writing, that is a guarantee.

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More concrete. It has to be concrete

and credible to which they are

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using. And doesn't have to actually

answer every single question. But it

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has to give us sort of idea of how

this open border is going to work.

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Given how much hangs on the surely

common sense says they will find a

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way round this. They're not going to

allow this whole process to be

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wrecked because they can't quite

agree a form of words to get them

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onto the next age.

Well, I'm afraid with so many issues

0:19:440:19:46

around Brexit, it effectively boils

down to getting square pegs into

0:19:460:19:54

round holes. Ireland's relation to

the Britain has always been loaded

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with emotive issues, not least of

all religion, and nationalism. But

0:19:580:20:03

the massive stumbling block is a

technical one. And Britain want a

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proper Brexit then of course it has

to have a border. A hard border, the

0:20:050:20:10

EU state. Otherwise, all the betes

noires that underpin Brexit

0:20:100:20:15

especially immigrants and

non-British goods, will just keep

0:20:150:20:21

flowing and will be able to move

into the UK with no hindrance. The

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whole point of Brexit is to stop all

that. The flow of people, goods and

0:20:240:20:30

indeed animals and have a border

between southern and... There is no

0:20:300:20:34

physical border between southern and

Northern Ireland that it is very

0:20:340:20:37

difficult to achieve that.

At the time of the attempt to

0:20:370:20:40

achieve the peace agreement which

became the Good Friday Agreement,

0:20:400:20:48

British politicians and prime

ministers could always pick up the

0:20:480:20:50

phone and bring somebody in

Washington and there was always a

0:20:500:20:52

sense that America's interest in the

fate of Ireland and what was

0:20:520:20:55

happening in Northern Ireland was

considerable. There were always

0:20:550:20:59

politicians, Republican and

Democrat, who cared more passionate

0:20:590:21:05

about.

Is there still that interest? No, of

0:21:050:21:07

course not. We remember that early

handholding at the White House with

0:21:070:21:15

two reason may Donald Trump. I don't

think there will be grabbing one

0:21:150:21:18

another's hands after this week when

Trump's retweeted those odious

0:21:180:21:26

anti-Muslim videos at the Swan of

which was totally fictitious.

0:21:260:21:30

Theresa May, to her credit, slapped

him down. He then slapped her down.

0:21:300:21:33

And so it goes.

My job business.

0:21:330:21:38

Let me throw another cliche at you,

and so he did. I think she is very

0:21:380:21:47

much, she can't rely on him. She

hoped some quick radio the US would

0:21:470:21:53

somehow paper Rover the massive

potential loss of trade with Europe.

0:21:530:21:56

But, no, she can't. I must say, she

clearly, her kind of glib, Brexit

0:21:560:22:01

means Brexit. Now that she's caught,

the devil is in the details.

0:22:010:22:11

They don't use that phrase. They

don't know what it means. That kind

0:22:110:22:13

of glibness is coming back to bite

them. There is so much really

0:22:130:22:16

difficult detailed work here and

Ireland, who would've thought that

0:22:160:22:22

would be the one issue that could

potentially trip them up.

0:22:220:22:24

It stars go back to the Good Friday

Agreement. Most around here remember

0:22:240:22:31

20 years ago when they put the Good

Friday Agreement together they have

0:22:310:22:34

this thing called constructive

ambiguity. Well, we'll figure it out

0:22:340:22:41

afterwards, we'll get around to

that.

0:22:410:22:43

You can't do that with this. So up

until now, although sensitive

0:22:430:22:47

issues. Because you need to actually

explain to people how their

0:22:470:22:51

livelihoods are going to be able to

continue if they run a dairy farm

0:22:510:22:58

just a mile north of the border and

the milk is pasteurised or turned

0:22:580:23:01

into cheese or whatever it is on the

south of the border, because the

0:23:010:23:06

integration between, and it is not

just agriculture, it is loads of

0:23:060:23:09

things, along that border area, is

enormous. There is a former senior

0:23:090:23:16

guy who always says...

The drinks maker? Yes. We says the

0:23:160:23:24

milk that goes into the bottle

babies comes from Northern Ireland

0:23:240:23:26

and crosses the border five times

for pasteurisation of this and that

0:23:260:23:29

and the other before it ends up in

the bottle. It goes over and back

0:23:290:23:36

five times. But you have that kind

of very, very integrated economy on

0:23:360:23:40

both sides of the border. And

creative ambiguity is not going

0:23:400:23:46

to...

Constructive ambiguity is not going

0:23:460:23:47

to work. Reintroducing the border

can bring back the division that

0:23:470:23:54

defined the troubles and undo all

the good progress made by the Good

0:23:540:23:57

Friday Agreement. Of all this is

about technical puzzles. Once that

0:23:570:24:04

highlight the horrendous

difficulties that underpins the

0:24:040:24:06

Brexit process. After following a

very simple decision made by Britain

0:24:060:24:10

to leave the EU.

The election is coming back to haunt

0:24:100:24:14

them because the DUP...

The general election issue that left

0:24:140:24:22

the Tories without a majority. They

are now reliant on this party in

0:24:220:24:26

Northern Ireland nationalists to

support them and maintain the

0:24:260:24:29

Government here at Westminster. And

now, Theresa May really is at their

0:24:290:24:32

mercy.

It is interesting that it is such an

0:24:320:24:37

emblematic example of the complexity

of this that on this, both sides

0:24:370:24:41

agree on the end. The EU and the UK

want a soft border. And yet they

0:24:410:24:49

can't quite work out how. So even

where there is agreement on an end,

0:24:490:24:53

it is not at all clear how they

reach it. Many other issues the

0:24:530:24:56

risen to an agreement on the end and

even if she gets through the

0:24:560:25:02

December summit this crucial moment

in the Premiership, because if she

0:25:020:25:05

doesn't there will be a sense of

crisis around her.

0:25:050:25:07

So I assume that she will.

Do think that would finish her off?

0:25:070:25:12

Such predictions are dangerous now

but I think there will be a huge

0:25:120:25:15

sense of crisis if she doesn't get

through to the next round of much

0:25:150:25:18

more mountainous the complex talks.

After December, which are thinking

0:25:180:25:25

is why she's got a sense that the

Brexit payment will open the door of

0:25:250:25:30

sorts, assuming that something can

be done Northern Ireland. If she

0:25:300:25:33

doesn't there will be a huge, she

can't come back from another summit

0:25:330:25:38

and deliver a statement to the House

of Commons saying we've made no

0:25:380:25:41

progress.

It is going to require a lot of

0:25:410:25:45

flexibility by the EU as well.

Because if they do have the sort of

0:25:450:25:48

measures worth a glittery

convergence and so on, the EU is

0:25:480:25:52

going to have to say, well, it is

not the way we run the single market

0:25:520:25:56

normally but in this case we will

make an exception. They will have to

0:25:560:25:59

be fairly flexible on that.

I understand that a certain Irish

0:25:590:26:07

Stout, they also involve travelling

across the border and then back

0:26:070:26:09

again.

Too early in the have one of those.

0:26:090:26:12

Too early in the have one of those.

0:26:120:26:14

That's all we have time

for on Dateline this week.

0:26:140:26:16

Please do join us again next week,

same time same place.

0:26:160:26:19

But for now thank you for

watching, and goodbye.

0:26:190:26:23

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