02/12/2017 Dateline London

Hello and welcome

to Dateline London.

I'm Shaun Ley.

President Donald Trump

is celebrating his first

legislative triumph,

after the US Senate passed tax

cuts in the early hours

of Saturday morning.

Should he be looking

over his shoulder now his former

national security adviser has

admitted lying to the FBI

about contacts with Russia?

We'll also discuss why Ireland's

border could be a Brexit

barrier come Monday.

With me in the studio:

The Irish writer and

broadcaster Brian O'Connell.

The Algerian journalist

Nabila Ramdani.

Jeffrey Kofman, who spent many years

working for the US Networks

and the UK political commentator

Steve Richards.

Welcome to you all.

Welcome to you all.

Robert Mueller, the special

prosecutor examining alleged links

between the Trump presidential

campaign and Russia,

has claimed an important scalp.

Mike Flynn, who resigned early

in the administration

because he lied to the vice

president about Russia has now

admitted he lied to the FBI, too.

The question being asked

in Washington is whether his

admission is part of a deal

with Mueller that could

take the investigation

into the White House.

Does this now smack of a plea

bargain?

Yes, absolutely. And I think we can

record December one, 2017 as both

the best of the worst day of Tom's

presidency so far. He has got this

massive tax cut passed by the Senate

by a hair, and now the pressure is,

the news is tightening around the

White House. And if not him then

certainly those close. What we see

from Flint is that in this agreement

he is pointing fingers at senior

White House officials and the US

media is right with speculation that

it is Tomson-in-law., 'sand he

stated this publicly very blue back

many times is that it will be over

by Christmas that he can be won,

that is not the case.

This is a case of,'s alternate

reality catching up with him.

In terms of the practicalities of

this, how big a distraction is this?

I think it is going to be running

background theme throughout his

entire presidency, however long it

lasts. I don't think it will

overwhelm him because he's not the

type of figure to be overwhelmed by

a single issue. He will move onto

other factors. In fact, in some

ways, though I know what you mean

about the tax cut been the best day

because he's got some legislation

through, I think the implications of

that will be just as serious as

Russia. Because it is part of an

entirely incoherent approach to the

role of Government. The promised to

be the most active in the history of

US politics, spending like no other.

More capital spending than current

spending. Is introduced to cut which

he argues will generate growth. When

that doesn't happen, his whole pitch

to the so-called left behind, I

think we'll be found to be exposed

and heavy incoherent. And the tax

cut is part of that. The Russia

story, I think, as you implied,

hasn't quite got him yet. By

implication it has but not directly.

And while that remains the case it

will be a background story rather

than one which brings in throughout.

Many of the supporters, what they

expect, the establishment are doing

their bit to try to bring him down.

In the sense, it is almost factored

out. The Trump presidency is a test

of the Brazilians of American

institutions of democracy in a way

which, in our lifetime, we have

never seen. Can the courts remain

independent? Can his meddling be

held to account? And what we're

seeing is so far, yes. His attempts

to knock Miller over were

unsuccessful and now it is coming

back at him. But on the tax cuts, it

is so interesting sitting in the UK

talking about this because we talk

about what Brexit is, generational

change which will affect your

grandchildren. And probably gone in

four or eight years. This tax cut is

a generational tax cut this is going

to affect America weather Here is

born in a year, at the end of his

first term or survives to terms,

this is a pivot for the American

economy. He claims it is

middle-class. Every independent

analysis suggest that this is a

massive game for the wealthy. The

and the working class.

They get a tax cut but it is not the

same sort of proportion on the same

scale.

In time it diminishes.

So eventually it would disappear.

In terms of what that means, he is

now at least delivering. He has

concrete evidence that he has done

something. Isn't that going to be

more important to a lot of voters

than whether or not there is an

investigation ongoing?

No, I think that the latest

controversy, I would like to think

that the latest controversy will

really be the beginning of the end

for Trump. But there has been so

many low points in his wretched

presidency that it is really

difficult to gauge the significance

of it all. But I think that, you

know, as you know, official

enquiries can take a very long time

and it actually,'s erratic behaviour

and increasingly demonic behaviour

that got him through a campaign that

he didn't look likely to win in the

first place. And I am of the opinion

that societies deserve the

politicians that they get. And Tom

personifies a great nation in

crisis. And for this reason he will

be fighting tooth and nail against

his opponents and he isn't an

immensely powerful position to do

so. And meanwhile, he's announcing

next week that he is going to move

the American Embassy to Jerusalem.

So this is after the provocative

move and so typical of disgraceful

leaders to try to create red

herrings and try to make out that

all problems are in foreign policy,

meanwhile it is a massive

distraction from the huge problems

at home. He is dealing with a hugely

divided, unequal nation at the

moment. And Americans have only

themselves to blame for putting him

in that position and indeed

sustaining this state of affairs.

I know you're Canadian by birth. But

you know the United States very

well. Do they have to accept...

I think it is true. We have a deeply

divided nation and I was just in the

midwest. There is a festering sense

of resentment and anger. There were

so many people struggling with two

jobs, to stay just above water. They

are not saving anything.

And they feel that the world is

passing them by. And he spoke to

that. And he to that. The solution

to your problem not realistic. Has

he talked about bringing call-back?

It is just not realistic. We are

about to see another wave of

technology, putting truck drivers

and taxi drivers out of work, with

automation. There was a real sense

of fear, and he speaks to that. I

think his constituency, that court

is there.

Is he distracted now by the Russian

investigation?

Can he avoid being distracted by it?

He will just move the agenda onto

something else. He gets up and goes

on twitter every morning and does

this. And here's the rest of the

world talking about some obscure

right-wing group that we've never

even heard of anyway.

With the retweets of these.

The BBC needs to look at how much

coverage they give, you know, that

sort of thing as well. I mean, he is

the presidency presumably we would

have to get impeachment.

Impeachment is a political process.

It is not going to happen. It is

probably not going to happen. And

Mueller, how long will that go on

for? His first term anyway. He has,

as you say, one not on his

legislative belt so far and he's

probably happy with that, I would

have thought.

Could he have more? Is that's their

potential there, now that the

senators have passed tax cuts? The

resistance that actually this is now

concrete achievement. Is that the

catalyst for other things to be

achieved? After a year which, in

legislative terms, has been pretty

rotten for him.

That is a common challenge for most

presidents. But it depends what you

mean by other things. The tax cut is

something that brings together quite

a large part of the Republican

party. Not least in Washington.

Which has been a kind of region,

Thatcher party beyond the humour of

Reagan and Thatcher. They of course

famously imposed spending cuts on

Obama when she wanted to pass a more

high spending Budget. And so in this

area he brings together the

Republican party. In most other

areas he doesn't. So, no, I don't

think this is going to be the

beginning of the legislative

programme of substantial reform, in

which the Republican party unites

around him.

It's too disparate and contradictory

and shallow and incoherent for that

to happen.

But what is happening

just below the radar is equally

significant. We are seeing a real

push to put young, very conservative

judges in state and level courts and

we're seeing a purging of the State

Department. A huge exodus of a

career diplomats and what some are

calling at crisis level.

The wrist and even a US ambassador

in South Korea at the moment.

Absolutely. And career diplomats

have been pushed out. So while it is

true the legislative agenda may or

may not move forward and he has the

significant triumph, he has still

has to reconcile the house. But

there is this cultural shift

happening in the institutions,

exactly.

And do Republicans think that they

could run on these tax cuts? In

November of next year, when we have

the mid-term elections.

They desperately needed this.

Absolutely. What they're really

running on, I think, is fear. But

what you see is, if you stand up

like a senator did. The two who have

injected, they're not running again.

If you stand up in this culture of

polarised politics, you will be

massacred on social media and by the

conservative right and so dissent is

something an option.

You either follow, keep quiet, or

leave.

You either follow,

keep quiet, or leave.

Ireland was partitioned in 1922,

but almost immediately the newly

created Republic and the UK,

of which Northern Ireland remained

part, agreed their citizens

could move freely back

and forth across the border.

During the 30 years of violence

which bedevilled the north

there were armed soldiers,

vehicle checks and razor wire.

These days, after two decades

of peace, about the only physical

sign you're changing countries

are road signs shifting

between miles and kilometres.

Brexit could change that.

By Monday, the UK has to present

to EU negotiators in Brussels ideas

for avoiding the return of border

posts and checks -

what's known as a hard border -

or the divorce negotiations can't

move on to post-Brexit trade.

In terms of what is possible, and

what can be achieved, why have we

got to the stage where we are so

close to a deadline and nobody

really seems to be clear about what

the solutions are? To the border

problem.

This is not an Irish Government

view. The Irish Government is one of

27 EU countries. The reason we

wrapped the stage now is because the

British didn't listen at the

beginning. If you go back to a month

after the referendum campaign, I

think it was the 28th of July 2016,

index Kelly turned up in Downing

Street.

It is Theresa May's first meeting...

Because she has not been prime

Minster very long.

First meeting with the new Prime

Minister and they have lunch and

they agree that all the nice stuff

about frictionless borders and

things have to continue as they are.

The Irish then went off and went

bundle the other 26 EU capitals and

they said, this is a crucial issue

and they explained why, and the

British went off and looked at other

stuff to do with Brexit said, that

is the Irish sorted out. Of course,

when it came to setting up the

talks, there is Ireland, is one of

the three things. That is because

the Irish went around the other 26

capitals and said we want this, this

is going to be really important.

They did their homework. They did

their homework and the British kind

of parked it. Now, there is all

kinds of reasons for that, which we

can come back to. But in terms of

what is achievable, my understanding

is that they have not got a deal

yet. The deadline is, I think,

lunchtime on Monday when Mrs may

goes to meet Jean-Claude Newkirk for

lunch.

A lot of people in the UK probably

don't grasp, you might be able to

help with this, is, why is it

possible for order to operate

between Norway, which is not a

member of the European Union, and

Sweden, relatively painlessly? Or

Switzerland, which is not a member,

and France, relatively painlessly?

But everyone says it is going to be

a potential crisis between Northern

Ireland and the Republic, one

outside the EU and one in.

The countries you mentioned have

various arrangements with the single

market or the EEA or whatever it

happens to be, for which they pay.

They signed deals and the problem

was Northern Ireland and the British

and Irish positions, is that both

sides agree that this should be

frictionless, open, happy-go-lucky

border but the British are saying,

we don't want to be in the single

market or the customs union and we

also don't want as was suggested by

the Irish at one point, a dividing

line down the Irish Sea, so the

border would be there. So you can't

actually work that Rubik 's cube

out. It is never going to happen. So

what you've got to do is, I think,

William Hague...

The former British Foreign

Secretary. He was positing this. You

go through the Good Friday Agreement

and pull out all the little bits and

take it apart, that is what European

commissions are for. They've done

this and gone through it and I think

there is 142 issues...

Within the Good Friday Agreement?

Because was based on the premise

that both sides were going to be

within European Union. It goes down

to things like animal welfare,

crossing the border, things like

ambulances crossing the border. So

if you have a heart attack on the

south and the nearest hospital is

across the board on the north, and

that kind of stuck. And you do with

them one by one. And you have a sort

of regulatory convergence. This is

where the DUP start jumping up and

down and saying, no, no, we're not

going to do this.

This is very interesting. It is fair

to say I was in a broadly

nationalised part of Northern

Ireland. It is an important issue

for politicians there. The DUP

deputy leader, who is in charge in

Westminster, the man who negotiated

the deal was Theresa May's keeper in

office, said there is no special

status. There will not be a special

status for Northern Ireland. It will

be treated the same as the UK.

Theresa May said that I think she is

a woman of her word.

How on earth are they going to

reconcile? I don't know. And it is

very interesting if you look back at

the the United Kingdom on this.

Northern Ireland came up once, when

John Major Tony Blair went to speak

there. And that was it. They

generated no response, not much

interest. That was the sole focus.

Now, they are a reminder of two

prime ministers who lived and

breathed Northern Ireland politics

and the Good Friday Agreement.

They would've known about the

significance of the multilayered

complexity is. This peace agreement

that effectively, not completely,

brought an end to the armed violence

that was taking place for decades.

On the assumption of Northern

Ireland being part of the European

Union, like Southern Ireland. And

suddenly all of those changes. And

Theresa May arrives. She was Home

Secretary, she obviously had

security issues Northern Ireland but

beyond that Northern Ireland had not

been on her radar as a senior

politician. And I think she's hugely

underestimated. In fairness to David

Davis and others,...

He's the British negotiator.

The British Brexit secretary in the

United Kingdom. They are acutely

aware of it. They were logical point

in saying that before we know the

end agreement, it is very hard to

deal with the Northern Ireland

situation because until we know the

degree to which we trade is going to

apply more widely, you can't do with

this. But, as you know, there is a

huge pressure to get some sort of

sense.

The Irish Government are not

suggesting that we have to have

everything glued to the floor before

we move onto the next thing. What

saying is, you've given us all the

sort of airy fairy, yes, we all

agree that the border has to be...

The reassurances. In fact, there was

a British paper produced last

August, I think, where they talked

about trusted traders in technology

and will kind of stuff, which the EU

Commission described as magical

thinking. That was all the

predicament has provided so far. The

Irish now, they're saying give us

something that we can hang onto, in

writing, that is a guarantee.

More concrete. It has to be concrete

and credible to which they are

using. And doesn't have to actually

answer every single question. But it

has to give us sort of idea of how

this open border is going to work.

Given how much hangs on the surely

common sense says they will find a

way round this. They're not going to

allow this whole process to be

wrecked because they can't quite

agree a form of words to get them

onto the next age.

Well, I'm afraid with so many issues

around Brexit, it effectively boils

down to getting square pegs into

round holes. Ireland's relation to

the Britain has always been loaded

with emotive issues, not least of

all religion, and nationalism. But

the massive stumbling block is a

technical one. And Britain want a

proper Brexit then of course it has

to have a border. A hard border, the

EU state. Otherwise, all the betes

noires that underpin Brexit

especially immigrants and

non-British goods, will just keep

flowing and will be able to move

into the UK with no hindrance. The

whole point of Brexit is to stop all

that. The flow of people, goods and

indeed animals and have a border

between southern and... There is no

physical border between southern and

Northern Ireland that it is very

difficult to achieve that.

At the time of the attempt to

achieve the peace agreement which

became the Good Friday Agreement,

British politicians and prime

ministers could always pick up the

phone and bring somebody in

Washington and there was always a

sense that America's interest in the

fate of Ireland and what was

happening in Northern Ireland was

considerable. There were always

politicians, Republican and

Democrat, who cared more passionate

about.

Is there still that interest? No, of

course not. We remember that early

handholding at the White House with

two reason may Donald Trump. I don't

think there will be grabbing one

another's hands after this week when

Trump's retweeted those odious

anti-Muslim videos at the Swan of

which was totally fictitious.

Theresa May, to her credit, slapped

him down. He then slapped her down.

And so it goes.

My job business.

Let me throw another cliche at you,

and so he did. I think she is very

much, she can't rely on him. She

hoped some quick radio the US would

somehow paper Rover the massive

potential loss of trade with Europe.

But, no, she can't. I must say, she

clearly, her kind of glib, Brexit

means Brexit. Now that she's caught,

the devil is in the details.

They don't use that phrase. They

don't know what it means. That kind

of glibness is coming back to bite

them. There is so much really

difficult detailed work here and

Ireland, who would've thought that

would be the one issue that could

potentially trip them up.

It stars go back to the Good Friday

Agreement. Most around here remember

20 years ago when they put the Good

Friday Agreement together they have

this thing called constructive

ambiguity. Well, we'll figure it out

afterwards, we'll get around to

that.

You can't do that with this. So up

until now, although sensitive

issues. Because you need to actually

explain to people how their

livelihoods are going to be able to

continue if they run a dairy farm

just a mile north of the border and

the milk is pasteurised or turned

into cheese or whatever it is on the

south of the border, because the

integration between, and it is not

just agriculture, it is loads of

things, along that border area, is

enormous. There is a former senior

guy who always says...

The drinks maker? Yes. We says the

milk that goes into the bottle

babies comes from Northern Ireland

and crosses the border five times

for pasteurisation of this and that

and the other before it ends up in

the bottle. It goes over and back

five times. But you have that kind

of very, very integrated economy on

both sides of the border. And

creative ambiguity is not going

to...

Constructive ambiguity is not going

to work. Reintroducing the border

can bring back the division that

defined the troubles and undo all

the good progress made by the Good

Friday Agreement. Of all this is

about technical puzzles. Once that

highlight the horrendous

difficulties that underpins the

Brexit process. After following a

very simple decision made by Britain

to leave the EU.

The election is coming back to haunt

them because the DUP...

The general election issue that left

the Tories without a majority. They

are now reliant on this party in

Northern Ireland nationalists to

support them and maintain the

Government here at Westminster. And

now, Theresa May really is at their

mercy.

It is interesting that it is such an

emblematic example of the complexity

of this that on this, both sides

agree on the end. The EU and the UK

want a soft border. And yet they

can't quite work out how. So even

where there is agreement on an end,

it is not at all clear how they

reach it. Many other issues the

risen to an agreement on the end and

even if she gets through the

December summit this crucial moment

in the Premiership, because if she

doesn't there will be a sense of

crisis around her.

So I assume that she will.

Do think that would finish her off?

Such predictions are dangerous now

but I think there will be a huge

sense of crisis if she doesn't get

through to the next round of much

more mountainous the complex talks.

After December, which are thinking

is why she's got a sense that the

Brexit payment will open the door of

sorts, assuming that something can

be done Northern Ireland. If she

doesn't there will be a huge, she

can't come back from another summit

and deliver a statement to the House

of Commons saying we've made no

progress.

It is going to require a lot of

flexibility by the EU as well.

Because if they do have the sort of

measures worth a glittery

convergence and so on, the EU is

going to have to say, well, it is

not the way we run the single market

normally but in this case we will

make an exception. They will have to

be fairly flexible on that.

I understand that a certain Irish

Stout, they also involve travelling

across the border and then back

again.

Too early in the have one of those.

Too early in the have one of those.

That's all we have time

for on Dateline this week.

Please do join us again next week,

same time same place.

But for now thank you for

watching, and goodbye.