16/12/2017 Dateline London

Hello and a very warm welcome

to Dateline London, I'm Jane Hill.

This week we reflect

on some movement, finally,

in the Brexit talks and ask

whether the election

of a Democrat in Alabama really

is a blow to Donald Trump.

My guests this week,

the American writer Stephanie Baker

from Bloomberg Markets,

the British political commentator

Yasmin Alibhai- Brown,

Suzanne Lynch from

the Irish Times and

Thomas Kielinger from Germany's Die

Welcome to you all.

We've seen the end of the beginning!

It was confirmed this week

that the Brexit talks

between Britain and the EU can

finally move to the second phase.

What a week for Britain's Prime

Minister Theresa May -

losing a parliamentary vote

in London, but getting

a round of applause from leading EU

figures in Brussels.

Though by Friday Jean Claude Juncker

and Angela Merkel were among those

pointing out that phase two

of the negotiations will be much

harder than phase one.

Talks move in January to discussion

of the transition period.

Yasmin, the PM more

than soldiers on...

To raise a soldier 's honour.

You

have to add my hurt when you think

she is down and out, somehow she

brings out something in her. --

admire her. She is also... I can't

imagine what it feels like to be in

her position. She is battling on

many fronts within her own party all

these issues. I think we have to

admire that she didn't collapse into

a heap and stop crying. They

applauded her strength. The

Europeans have been so civilised, I

have to say, through all of this.

They are a very civilised bunch. I

don't think we are very civilised

when we are talking about them.

Theresa May has been, which is why

she got a round of applause.

Jean-Claude Juncker says she was

polite and friendly.

She started

that in Florence and that new tone

with her speech. The madness of this

plays was not getting us anywhere.

She did say, "We want to be friends

and good for Europe." She comes to

this mad house that is the

Conservative Party and she has do

negotiate quite a lot. What is to

come is so difficult. God help her

and us.

There is a very important

cabinet meeting and that goes to the

heart of what she has two address.

Britain is too big a country to

fail. This is a defining moment in

the own history and we need to come

together. The can't be brutal and

bloody minded about Britain. There

is a reason for Europe to be

civilised because their own house is

not in order. There are certain

aspects of the summit meeting in

Brussels which were not reported as

much because everyone was focused on

Brexit. There are huge problems

waiting with the migration issue

come the EU is by no means a hard on

fast currency to sustain itself.

They need new economic balls to make

sure the currency survives and there

are plans that the French have put

forward of a harmonisation in Europe

which the Germans are dead set

against. Germany, there is no reason

for Angela Merkel to be civilised

because she has no government at the

moment.

None of this has been

reported in the UK.

It looks pretty

bleak because the total division of

opinion inside Germany is such that

nobody seems to agree on anything

with anybody. I wonder why in

western democracy, the outcome of

elections are murky and indecisive.

The voters don't trust politicians

enough to give any party a clear

majority to rule the country. That

is at the heart of the problem.

I

agree. This idea of Europe being

civilised but Europe is quite

divided both on Brexit, where there

are very different views, but within

its own entity. Migration, there was

a huge debate about that on Thursday

night in Brussels. Other talks about

eurozone governance but tax.

Countries like Ireland, the

Netherlands, Luxembourg, they are

very worried about harms the

taxation. There is a real blow and

the loss of Britain as a huge member

of the EU will have more subtle

implications in years to come not

least with the idea of trade and

free market. Britain was always good

up to the French. The implications

there of Britain leaving are more

nebulous but they will be felt for

years to come.

That is a good thing

for Europe because we have not been

a good member of the EU. We have

never committed to this relationship

and the low tax and...

Is what

specifics?

We have always had this

argument. We don't want to be part

of this. The neoliberal model is

vast and I think the low tax economy

like the one you are talking about,

they have to rethink.

This goes to

the heart of it. It will probably

not change but I wouldn't agree with

that entirely. Britain may have

played the role of being an outsider

but officials in Brussels were very

clever in making a lot of the rules.

Also the other irony of Brexit was

Britain had the best of both worlds.

It had an opt out from a lot of

justice legislation. It was always

half in. There was quite a good

deal, many people think.

As time

went on, more people in this country

felt European. There was an emotion

involved that we feel has now been

severed. Because they wanted it all,

I still feel the EU action may want

to take on the tax paid by the

Internet giants is a good thing. It

is a very good thing.

A lot of

people don't believe that. It is not

simple. Defence is another one. A

number of countries in the EU are

not members of Nato.

In the

civilised language, a subtle attempt

to strengthen her hand in the own

country to make her look more

impressive than some are saying. The

middle round view will gain

ascendancy in the cabinet. It is a

subtle way to make sure not the mad

crowd will win the day in Britain.

You have some grumbling saying

Margaret Thatcher never got abroad

when she won the rebate. Maybe she

has given up too much and she should

be playing hard ball a bit more. I

think whatever deal she gets out of

the EU would be a reflection of

where the EU is going. We need to

think about that. You saw some more

positive statements coming out of

the continent. The Belgian Prime

Minister saying he thought Canada

plus should be the cornerstone of

any future negotiations with the UK.

It is in keeping with what David

Davis has said. The majority of what

the Cabinet supports. Many people

thought they came dead deer

unrealistic and a fantasy. I think

how Europe handles this will be a

real reflection of where it is

going.

David Davis and his ramblings

on what was decided by Mrs May was a

statement of intent. They have been

very tough. Things will be as they

are until 2019. The transition

period, more or less everything

stays the same. We are playing them.

Wet look at the transition period is

interesting. If we are looking at a

two-year transition period, things

are broadly the same for very many

years to come. We are still part of

the ECJ, the trade deal is going to

be similar.

You have been a member

of the EU for 43 years so what is

another five years?

By the time we

get to the end point, who knows? Do

any of us know what the EU was going

to look like by the time we reach

that point?

They have used the time

to become aware how terrible it

would be to lose Britain. You have

to come up with an accommodating

deal at the end of the day because

Britain is too big to fail in the

eyes of Europe. They have to make

extra effort to accommodate whatever

the discussion will throw up in

Britain.

I think we have a major

paradox now approaching on the

tracks which is today, Philip

Hammond in China was sick you wanted

a deal that would replicate status

quo. That is essentially what they

are going to want. The Northern

Ireland issue epitomised this by

saying there won't be aboard in

Northern Ireland and Ireland.

Northern Ireland will stay in the

customs union and singles market and

that has implications for the rest

of UK. We are not in the single

market but essentially we are. Will

the EU allow that? I don't think

they will if they don't allow free

movement.

I am saying to you that

the Europeans have said you cannot

do any trade deal independently

until after this period. Canada, it

took them eight years.

There waiting

for Britain.

It is going to be very

difficult. Theresa May has been able

to forge a number of issues with

this preliminary agreement. You

can't fudge things in trade talks.

Language has to be specific. The

language in Northern Ireland can

mean many things to many people. She

will have a tough ride and this will

not be easy. Canada plus plus will

be difficult negotiations.

Particularly over financial services

which is incredibly important to the

British economy and you can see the

continent making offers to Paris.

Nevertheless, there is a sense of

community in Europe. A sense of

growing awareness that we have to be

on the positive and try to see if

their will is some way of solving

this conundrum. It is a cruel

introduction of British policies

which are mind-boggling.

Powerful

people in the Tory party and some

Labour, for whom it is never going

to be good enough. It is never going

to be enough.

That is what Theresa

May has to navigate in the coming

weeks and we will see what emerges

from the Cabinet meeting this week.

In the US, the first Democrat has

been elected Senator

for Alabama in 20 years.

Doug Jones beat Roy Moore,

even though the Republican had been

endorsed by President Trump.

Did Moore lose because of

the allegations of sexual

harrassment against him,

or does the vote suggest wider

problems for the administration?

The Republicans now have just 51 out

of the 100 seats in the Senate.

Stephanie how significant

was the Alabama vote?

It was very significant for a number

of reasons. Short-term, it makes it

more difficult for Donald Trump to

get his agenda through Congress.

They only have one vote and can lose

in the Senate. Republicans have

opposed him on a number of issues.

They will get the tax bill through

because Doug Jones will not be sworn

in and they will vote on it next

week. He will be sworn in after.

Welfare infrastructure, spending,

judicial appointments, there is the

divisions in the Republican Party

that great and the possibility of

swing votes will be much greater.

Long-term, some in the Republican

party said this was a special

election. Roy Moore is accused

paedophile with some extreme views

on a number of issues from the US

constitution to and religion. You

can't predict a Democratic sweep

nationwide in the November midterms.

However, the Democrats are very

energised and see a road map from

their victories in pigeon and

Alabama. Now you have an increasing

realisation amongst the Democratic

party that they have spent too much

money on advertising and not enough

on voter turnout. That is how they

were able to secure Doug Jones'

victory.

It was a strong

African-American turnout.

30%

turnout of black voters which was

higher under Barack Obama. If they

can replicate that in other races,

they have a Pabst of victory. What

is the future of Steve Bannon? He

has been waging war on the

Republican Party. A huge supporter

and persuaded Donald Trump to back

him. Can the Republican party cut

him off or will he be allowed to

continue to field these toxic

candidates in Republican primaries

that end up in the election not able

to win and not able to swing --

secure the votes from swing voters.

Do they nuclei is the war or does he

still get the upper vote.

Suzanne,

what was your view?

This could be a

turning point for Donald Trump. If

you look at the figures, suburban

districts that voted for Donald

Trump in 2016 flipped and voted for

a Doug Jones. There was also a very

potent election in pigeon last

month. Same thing happened. It was a

strong African-American vote. The

idea of Democrats winning an

election in Alabama at the moment

would be beyond their wildest

dreams. Now one wanted to protect

theirs. There are serious questions

about Donald Trump's judgment in

terms of his decision to back this

guy that everybody advised him not

to back. I think this battle that

has been happening will dominate the

midterms next year. Do we stick with

conservative Republicans or the

route of candidates represented at

-- by Donald Trump. They would be

much more careful about who they

choose in the midterms next year and

it will make it more difficult for

Democrats then if there is a

sensible Republican that will be

more difficult to win that seat.

Donald Trump still has a huge

following.

Nationally, it is very

low.

In Alabama, his base still

voted for Roy Moore. We're not

talking about a massive election

win. Centage wise, it was still a

small victory.

There weren't as many

people. A lot of them that voted for

Donald Trump did not vote for the

Republican candidate. Southern parts

of Alabama, they did. In the suburbs

and urban areas, they didn't. You

saw people who have voted for Trump

then turned. Donald Trump's own

election was very close. It takes

something small and if these

suburban voters are flipping, that

is a worry for the Republicans.

I

take comfort from the woods that he

is in a difficult state because the

rest of the world is wondering

whether America... The President, it

is a huge burden on the

international scene and for the

prospect of a Republican party

moderating itself in voting for

someone else, it is huge news. The

uncertainty.

It is the whole circle.

He is a product of what they have

been doing behind the scenes. The

alt right -- outright influence

remains very strong.

It will not win

them an election. People forget how

close it was when Donald Trump one.

It doesn't take that much to push a

Democrat over the line. In the

midterms, you have got Senate seats

open in states that Trump one. That

would be an uphill struggle for the

Democrats. You already see Paul

Ryan, the Republican leader, saying

he is soul-searching. There is this

report that he has been considering

resigning and not running in

November 20 18. The feeling that if

the Republicans tried to go after

special counsel, Robert Muller, does

he want to be fronting mats? That

will play a huge effect on how the

November midterms play out. We don't

know what else is Robert Muller is

sitting on and what else he can come

out with. He has got with four

indictments and has two cooperating

with him. I would not downplay how

much additional indictments could

affect the prospects for the

Republican party going forward.

On a

lot of conservative channels, the

talk was about Robert Muller's

investigation and there is now a

theory that the investigation

against Donald Trump is biased. A

lot of conservative media are saying

it. He went to an FBI graduation

ceremony yesterday and on his way,

he gave a speech saying the FBI were

disc rates fall, he was going to fix

things, the Hillary Clinton

investigation was a hoax and there

was a witchhunt against him. We have

an unprecedented breakdown in

relations between FBI and the

executive. Also we have a concerted

effort to delegitimise the

investigation. If you do is find out

anything negative about Donald

Trump, Donald Trump is ready to see

this investigation was flawed and we

don't trust them. It is a serious

issue.

It is to do with this

terrible dangerous thing that has

grown both in this country and the

US, that the elite is plotting

against the interests of the people.

They played this every time. They

are out to get Donald Trump, they

have created this thing, this is a

man who the people want and all of

this rhetoric. Evident...

Vladimir

Putin gave his press conference this

week where he deprived himself of

the problems that Donald Trump is

happening. He is deep in trouble

about this connection with America.

He has his hands dirty because of

the influence and interference of

Russia. The fact that Vladimir Putin

is on the side of the Donald Trump

camp, makes me sure the

investigation will come out all

right.

I read that they asked a

group of Americans outside the main

big cities where Russia was and

three quarters of the people had

never heard the word, Russia. We're

talking about levels of ignorance

that really striking.

You talk about

the vote and the tax laws. That

assuming it goes through will be

trumpeted as his first big

legislative victory. We know the

arguments on both sides but he and

the administration will betray this

as delivering on his election

promises.

He will score a victory on

that front. However, what is unclear

is how much that tax cut will be

felt by voters by November 20 18.

Some voters will feel it immediately

but it gives the Democrats a

platform to campaign on. This was a

massive tax cut for the wealthy and

for big corporations and four Trump

himself. The businesses, it is

remarkable how much he and the

organisations would benefit from

this tax cuts. That gives them a

natural platform to campaign on and

it is incredibly unpopular, this tax

cut.

It is corporate and personal.

$1 trillion of tax cuts. $1 trillion

goes to the corporations.

The impact

on the middle classes?

200 to 300

billion for individual tax cuts.

Again, attacks go at the top honours

-- burners, which is the latest.

Although it will cut taxes on middle

and low income, those expire and

some won't necessarily feel that

until they file their tax returns

the following year. We have seen

from previous tax cuts under Barack

Obama, he gave similar tax cuts of

800 and most people didn't notice

it. If people don't notice any real

benefits from this tax cuts and

Democrats are campaigning this was a

massive cut for the rich, then that

happens them a lot of firepower.

An

interesting note on which to end.

That is all we have time for this

week. Join us next week if you can.

Thanks for watching, goodbye.