23/12/2017 Dateline London

Hello and a warm welcome

to Dateline London.

I'm Jane Hill.

Today we're taking time to reflect

on 2017 as it draws to a close -

the highs and lows in Europe,

America and the Middle East.

Let's find out what my guests have

made of a turbulent year.

With me, the British political

commentator and columnist

Steve Richards, the American writer

and broadcaster Jef McAllister, Marc

Roche from France's Le Point

magazine and also Belgium's Le Soir,

and the Arab affairs

qriter Abdel Bari Atwan.

Welcome to you all.

What a year in British politics.

An election that didn't need to be

called, a reduced majority for

Theresa May's Conservative Party,

the rise of Labour's Jeremy Corbyn.

And what of policy and legislation?

That's on the back burner.

To adapt the famous American

political phrase, it's

all about Brexit, stupid.

Steve, did you think

Theresa May would still be

Prime Minister this Christmas?

To be honest, I did.

British

political journalism is punctuated

on a daily basis that a Prime

Minister -- with speculation that

the Prime Minister is about to fall

and they usually stay. So I am not

surprised. She is dog-eared and

determined. I'm told that even after

the election trauma, she did not

contemplate going. But at the same

time, that election changed

everything in British politics. It

was as significant as the 1979

election when Margaret Thatcher

appeared on the scene. Because even

though Theresa May is still on the

scene, it has changed the dynamics

of Brexit, it has falsified the idea

that a left-wing leader is due for

oblivion is standing for election,

change the assumption that young

people do not vote. And it is still

defining our politics many months

later even though the same Prime

Minister is in place. I started by

saying this was about British

politics but what has British

politics been this year, all about

Brexit. And that is what we have to

talk about. Marc your thoughts about

looking back on 2017, it took eight

or nine months to get an agreement

to get to phase two macro. 2017 has

been dominated by the Brexit deal in

phase one. We lost nine months due

to British internal politics. The

whole thing came together extremely

vaguely.

The good thing for Europe

is that Theresa May is still there

because the devil you know is better

than the devil you don't. Europe

helps Theresa May to stay in power.

But I think in Europe, it was a

mixed year. You have bad news with

the extreme right coming to power in

Austria, destabilising Chancellor

Merkel, problems in Catalonia. But

then the good news was that the EU

stayed united on the Brexit deal,

the Eurozone is getting out of

trouble and France had President

Macron, a modernist and the future

of Europe coming to power.

LAUGHTER.

Such equanimity, perhaps laughter

suggests a prize!

British politics

was paralysed completely by Brexit.

Nobody is talking about any other

problems, about health, education,

economic growth, the stagnation of

the economy in this country. So it

is amazing. Brexit, Brexit. The

newspapers brainwashed people and

diverted them from their own worries

in this country. So I don't know how

things will develop. OK, many people

anticipated Theresa May's fall, many

people did not expect her to last.

She surprised everybody. The first

phase of the negotiation actually

went through and we are now coming

to the difficult one, which is how

the single market agreements could

be finalised. It is extremely

difficult. So I believe that Britain

needs a charismatic leader, a strong

leader, to negotiate for the next

phase because it will be crucial to

reach a good deal. So, if not, I

believe this country will suffer.

You can see now... Why Britain is

afraid from election? Why can't we

have election?

There was election.

Britain needs stability for a few

years to get Brexit through and also

other things through and Theresa May

is the best leader, by default

maybe, to do a deal in Europe like

she did a deal in 2017 which is a

good deal because you need a soft

Brexit, you can't have a hard Brexit

and you can't have no deal. And

she's the best to bring that.

Next

week, we can discuss what might be

awaiting us! Jef, what do you think

of an extraordinary year in Britain,

and Brexit?

I am pleased that

because of those papering over of

the differences in the phase one

summit two macro years ago, everyone

says OK. But fundamentally, I have

felt that this is an arm -- a circle

that cannot be squared. Brexit does

not make sense for Britain and the

deal that makes Britain prosperous

and happy and makes every body have

their cake and eat it, does not

exist. The only way that it has been

able to be successful so far is that

the hard issues have not been

joined. I don't see how anywhere in

Europe, the kind of trade deal that

Britney is to prosper can be

achieved with the way that the

negotiations are structured. -- the

kind of trade deal that Britain

needs is to be -- to prosper. It is

going to be a car crash. I am amazed

that there was not more talk about

productivity and the fact that

people, because they feel the cold

wind of Brexit, are leaving. Nurses

from the health service, doctors,

professors, making their deals to

go. We know that? Yes, it is

peaking. The rate of increase of

immigration to Britain is decreasing

and there have been lots of

interesting stories done about

nurses who have been here for 25

years of saying, they don't want me

here, I am going home.

Steve, do you

pick up in your circle frustration

that other domestic political issues

have not had much focus this year?

Do you pick up on people saying

could Westminster tackle transport

or anything else?

I am afraid I'm

sad enough to hang around with

people obsessed with Brexit so why

spend the whole 2017 talking with

people like that! But in 2017,

Brexit sucked up all political

energy. In every sense. The stress

and tension as they moved the phase

one agreement in that James Bond

movie when she flew in the middle of

the night to sign it on that Friday

morning at the end of December. To

just the logistics, our embryonic

trade arrangements being looked at

by people with no experience of

negotiating trade deals. Of her

working out how the regulatory

framework will work post-Brexit.

These are massive issues and it is

the case that normally at the end of

the year you have looked back at the

NHS, public spending, tax, all the

things you talk about in British

politics...

Yes yes.

Europe is not

obsessed by Brexit. We are going on

with main issues like do we want a

federal Europe or a two speed

Europe. Britain is obsessed.

One

thing is clear, Britain is going

back to the blue passports! No more

of the red passports!

Yes, we got

that.

January saw the inauguration

of the 45th President

of the United States.

The swearing-in was seen

"by the largest crowd to ever

watch an inauguration" -

copyright Sean Spicer.

Campaign pledges fulfilled?

Pulling out of the Paris climate

accord, and tax cuts

recently voted through.

We've also seen the continuation

of bellicose language,

fake news and alternative facts.

Jef - Trump's been in office 11

months, how's his record?

I think it is so bad in some ways

that it becomes... We become in year

to it. -- we become used to it. He

is a remarkable figure, not in a

good way. These tax cuts, there are

so many bad things to talk about.

His most recent achievement, just

voted through.

Like the founder of

Trump University, the Taj Mahal

casino, great promises but not very

good in reality. This tax cut, there

is a tax cut but 60% of the benefit

goes to the top 1%. Trump himself

will benefit greatly from it because

a lot of the provisions seem to

benefit real estate trusts and

things he has a personal interest

in. The Republican Party passed it.

They say bad things, and they say he

goes too far or attacks people

wrongly, the tweaking has to stop,

but they all lined up behind him and

voted for it. There is a way in

which he... The fake news, that you

mention, he has cheapened the

language. It is almost Orwellian. It

is cheap Orwellian, where you can't

know what the truth is. Scientists

are leaving the government. The

Treasury Department experts on the

tax bill were not allowed to speak

because they would have pointed out

the contradictions. And so you have

get the mooring is what make a

democracy possible loosened by

constant nasty nurse from him. --

you have the moorings of what makes

a democracy possible.

As he has said

-- as we have said, his call vote is

still there. When the pollsters go

out, they don't find people who

regretted voting for Trump, they say

they would do it again.

The economy

is growing. Employment is up, he has

put his people in the Federal bank.

People vote for the economy.

But it

is not his legacy. It is Obama's

leather goods they -- it is Obama's

legacy.

That is irrelevant. The

legacy is there.

It is an

inheritance but even in New Jersey

and Alabama, boaters voted against

Trump. He is at the lowest rating.

His core supporters are unshakeable

but the suburban women, the college

educated, the Rabuka moderates, are

finding him offensive and who knows,

but you are saying resistance. You

see Muller and the press doing good

reporting and the me two movements

-- hashtag me to movement.

That that

tie into the first Democratic says

of being elected Al Obama quest --

Alabama? But no impact on the core

base.

The coming election in

November will decide. I presume

there will be a shock to President

Trump. When we talk about the

internals, the economy is improving

and unemployment is down to 4.7%

instead of 10.4%. The stock exchange

is also increasing and the stock

market is very high. But you can't

say that he achieved that in 11

months. Definitely there is a

groundwork for this. And foreign

policy, just last Wednesday, last

Thursday, we had a huge referendum

about President Trump and his

foreign policy. It was a huge

defeat, two thirds of the

international community voted

against his resolution to move the

American embassy from Tel Aviv to

Jerusalem. There was a huge

disapproval of him. Another

challenge that he cannot handle,

North Korea. It is a nuclear power

now. A ballistic missile our power.

And they managed to continue their

nuclear test, their missile test and

they have a huge capability to hurt

their neighbours in South Korea and

Japan. And they could reach the

United States. This is a huge

failure.

We will talk more about

that in a moment. Steve, your

thoughts?

The core verges always the

last. Hardline Brexiteers is always

the last to move. They are not going

to admit that they were wrong to

electron. But he has shown the power

of words. A lot of the things he

said he would do, he has not done.

He said he would scrap Obamacare and

some of the things he said he would

do here is not being able to do. But

the words themselves have provoked,

incited. It just shows, using

presidency in a way no one else has,

as an altar. Not just measures being

and lamented but words uttered being

enough to shake things up and in

nearly always alarming ways.

It is

the Internet age, it is trolling, it

is not thoughtful and it

destabilises. And the Internet

permits him and has made him and

permits the Russians to interfere in

the American election and this is

the technological trend that

underlines the uncertainties and

difficulties that we are grappling

with.

You have touched on things

that we will pick up on next week.

Let's reflect a little further on

the year that is coming to an end.

in particular the Middle East.

In October Raqqa, the de facto

capital of so called Islamic State,

finally fell to US backed forces.

Is there finally a degree

of stability in Syria?

And North Korea conducted a series

of weapons tests, including

launching its longest

range missile to date.

At Dell, you commented on this, do

you have any optimism?

There is a

sense that after as so many years of

turmoil and walls and destruction

and death, we have a relatively

stable Syria. Islamic State was

defeated, it was defeated on the

ground. The caliphate is

nonexistent. They used to control an

area which was half of Iraq and half

of Syria. No more. But the question

is, can we celebrate? I believe it

is premature. We have to wait.

Because those people now in

transition in Syria, they

disappeared.

Physically, where are

they?

They are underground. We look

at Islamic State in Syria and Iraq

but they have branches all over the

world. They have provinces in Libya

and Yemen and Afghanistan and

Pakistan. Still some of them are

underground in Iraq and Syria. They

could surface any time. They are

more dangerous now because it is

very cheap to carry out terrorism

for revenge. We have to remember

that September 11, the whole

operation cost only about $320,000

and look at the losses which the

whole world suffered from. We have

to look at three countries. Libya,

Yemen and Afghanistan. These

semi-failed or failed states are

candidates to be the new kit quarto

of the -- headquarters of the

Islamic State. Where it was at the

macabre, his cabinet, -- the leader

of Islamic State, where it is

cabinet? They used our 15,000 20,000

sympathisers and members or

fighters, where are they now? Where

have they disappeared to? Winner

that America has the best

surveillance and the intelligence

service, we know that America has

the best intelligence service. The

same with the British and the

friend, where are these people?

So

the fault of Raqqa is only a

temporary reprieve?

It is a pause.

Which is good news in 2017 but you

are making the point that there

is...

It is very good news to get

rid of them. Very good news to

defeat them. They are not as they

used to be. They don't have the

freedom to move and they are not

controlling or having a strong base

in the digital world. They are not

on Facebook or Twitter as much as

they used to be. So this is the most

important thing. If this is the

point of their strength, to control

their media, video tapes,

newspapers, now it is gone. The

recruitment network, they used to

having huge recruitment network, it

is very weak and now. But we have to

be very careful. They can come back

easily. Now they want to take

revenge. Plan B is terrorism. They

could terrorise the whole world.

They are very vicious people. But

the last thing, this unity from the

international community, when they

united together to fight this

phenomenon, now I can see this unity

is weakening a bit.

By the US?

Five

Trump's recognition of Jerusalem as

the capital of Israel, it has put

Trump outside the unity. The only

realistic way was as Macron said by

saving the Prime Minister of Lebanon

from being a prisoner and giving

Lebanon, this fragile country. --

keeping Lebanon. But it is very

gloomy for the Middle East.

We end

this year with more stability?

Yes,

destruction but at least Syria is

now stable. The real unstable thing

is Lebanon and Israel and Palestine

where things have got worse.

It is

not only Syria which is stable now.

Relatively stable. It is the whole

region. Iraq is stable again. Syria

and Iraq are coming back. Also the

stability of Syria is good for

immigration because many people,

many Syrian people will go back

because Syria is a rich country and

the people of Syria are

hard-working.

It is devastated at

the moment, the infrastructure is

devastated, but the point is that

there will be those who want to

return.

They will be reconstruction

in Syria and Iraq. This will attract

a lot of capital, a lot of skilled

people. It will attract a lot of

immigrants.

Yemen, in Egypt, in

Lebanon, it is very piecemeal. A

chequered situation.

We are talking

about Syria and Iraq but Yemen is

important, there is a forgotten war

there for the last three years and

the West and not paying attention to

the destruction of Yemen. About 1

million people facing an affidavit

of cholera and 17 million people in

Yemen facing starvation.

Britain

stayed out because of the Saudis.

The Saudis were bombing them. The

Saudis could not win this war for

the last three years and the

international community should

intervene and put an end to this

war. Boris Johnson said it is

illegal, to keep the sanctions on

Yemen because people are starving.

Donald Trump's relationship with the

Yemen is nonexistent. They will be

nothing done. It is interesting to

me, the idea that the Saudis can

modernise is attractive to

outsiders. I don't know whether it

is possible. One wonders because it

is a complex is system, whether he

can keep all the strings was she has

now pulled, in control.

I completely

agree with you, he is modernising

the country, the leader of Saudi. He

is dismantling a radical sect of

Islam which used to control the

country and promote radicalism. Most

of Al-Qaeda and Islamic State, there

ideology was from what hobbies.

Secondly, he is -- -- from the sect.

He is also modernising like allowing

women to drive. He is opening up the

country to tourism. But the problem

is that he is involved in this war

in Yemen. Andy is also getting Trump

a lot of money. $460 billion which

created a loss of jobs for the

Americans. But not for Middle East

and, not for Saudis. Modernising

yev, but bad policy as well.

I want

to mention Iran. Steve, do you have

thoughts on the year that has gone?

Not really. I would like to look

back and say that the questions that

have dominated the politics of the

Middle East in 2017, like how do you

deal with a stateless institution

like Isis? You can get grid of them

-- you can get rid of them in Raqqa

but you don't get rid of them

altogether. And the pertinent

questions remain the same at the end

of the year. And Trump is the

calamitous figure to be a mediating

figure, those questions were raised

in 2011, 2013 to 16 under Blair,

Busch and Obama and nobody has found

adequate answers to them yet. That

seems to be the sort of issue that

will be framing the next year as

well.

Thank you very much to all of

you. We could talk a lot longer.

That's all for this week,

though not this year -

do join us at the same time next

week when we'll consider

what 2018 may have in store.

For now, if you're

celebrating Christmas,

do enjoy the festive season.

Thanks for watching, goodbye.