17/03/2018 Dateline London

Hello and a very warm

welcome to Dateline London.

I'm Carrie Gracie.

This week we devote our

attention to Russia.

Russia abroad - after what the UK

and its allies called the first

offensive use of a nerve agent

in Europe since

the Second World War.

And Russia at home -

as a presidential election

is expected to deliver

Vladimir Putin another six years

in the Kremlin.

My guests this week: the former

Observer writer now political

commentator Adam Raphael.

Jef McAllister, the American

broadcaster, formerly the Head

of Time Magazine's London Bureau.

Italian journalist and film

maker Annalisa Piras,

and Russian political commentator,

and former Kremlin advisor,

Alexander Nekrassov.

Welcome to you all.

Let's start by discussing how the

government British is handling the

events of the last few days, how do

you think Theresa May is doing?

I

think she's doing pretty well, she

was Home Secretary and this is an

area she is familiar. It is almost

pro forma what she has been doing,

slung out a few Russian spies, you

sound tough. She carried the House

of Commons with her, I think she's

done her political credibility quite

a lot of good and on the other hand

the opposition leader, Jeremy Corbyn

has not done well. Did not get the

mood of the house or the nation. She

has come out well, but the question

is can she then deliver on what she

is saying she will be tough...

We

will come back to that in a moment

but first let's get everyone's take?

Well I don't agree with Adam simply

because the gravity of what happened

in my mind and in the mind of a lot

of observers should have warranted a

much tougher response. Expelling 23

spies or diplomats is not on the

same level of response to what looks

like a deliberate attempt to

humiliate Britain before the Russian

elections.

When you say deliberate

attempt that suggests you believe

the British government events that

this was ordered by the Russian

state and possibly by the president

himself?

Well, Britain, France,

Germany and the United States have

issued a joint statement saying they

believe Russia is behind this

attack, chemical attack, on British

soil. If that is the case then

expelling 23 diplomats does not look

to me as an adequate response.

The

US has its own issues with Russia at

the moment, but as you observe

events in London how do you think

Theresa May has handled it, how is

Jeremy Corbyn handle that?

I think

if this is the last of it from

Theresa May it is not enough in

political terms, in global political

terms. If there are going to be

interesting uses of chemical agents

in Russia by British agents or other

kinds of complex sanctions perhaps

on a Russian oligarch money or cyber

attacks or other kinds of things

which might be in the same league or

doing something more serious then I

think OK, let's see. It takes a

while but those things in place and

she cannot do it all in the first

day. It's a traditional retaliation

to expel diplomats. I think it is

fine enough for oil, she's not a

particularly strong Prime Minister.

Slightly stronger looking but I

think Jeremy Corbyn got it wrong and

it's bad for him. It's almost a

disqualification for a Prime

Minister, potential Prime Minister

to be that soft on someone who is

attacking you. I think this will

come back to haunt him.

Alexander I

suppose you are one step further

back which is questioning the

conviction of the British government

that the Russian state is behind

this?

First of all I think Theresa

May allowed herself to be dragged

into this anti-Russian stands by the

media because the media started its

attack practically at once. She did

not allow to give enough time for

investigation to come up with some

solid evidence. Highly likely was

the phrase about Russian

involvement, that does not sound

convincing. I think our problem is

that she is being basically put in

an impossible position. There is

nothing much she can do to Russia.

If she attacks the oligarchs and the

money the Russians will applaud the

stop they don't like the oligarchs,

they don't like the money being kept

in London so that's not working.

Whatever happens, whatever she says

Russian gas will continue to heat

British homes. Big companies will

make billions in Russia, BP, Shell.

Nothing will change in this sense.

So does she really have anything she

can throw at Vladimir Putin? I think

the hype created before her

statement people thought she was

going to say something and she

didn't and she couldn't. That's the

problem I think Theresa May has.

I

think that is a fair point, one of

the points of two previous British

ambassadors is that you never get

into a pressing match with the skunk

and the fact is we are involved with

a...

Careful of the language.

The

options open to Britain, the really

tough options would be really

difficult for this country to do, so

you have to go through these things,

you have to try and get your allies

behind you. We need without

international corporation there is

absolutely no way we can take the

really tough actions that would stop

Russia in its tracks. I personally

would favour trying to get Fifa and

get Britain out of the World Cup but

you could not really do that without

international corporation because

Britain alone withdrawing would not

be enough. We have got to show Putin

and his thugs what the West means

about this and to do that you need a

coherent response, I am sceptical of

that would come.

Obviously Nato have

said the UK got US, France and

Germany bank that joint statement a

couple of days back and Nato said

that Russia is underestimating the

resolve of our lives and their

support for the UK, you disagree?

Warm words are one thing. Actual

actions, taking physical actions

against the Russian state and its

interests are quite another. For

instance huge amounts of Russian

debt are washed through the British

London financial markets. We would

never dare do anything about it

because it would be so damaging to

the economy which is why I sadly

agree on the single point alone with

Alexander that actually we are

getting a lot of words but

unfortunately...

THEY TALK OVER EACH

OTHER

You use the language Putin and

his thugs, this is bad manners. You

are a journalist and you should not

talk like a street thug yourself so

please forget this terminology.

Terminology aside do you disagree?

Also I think the British media, the

language is unacceptable. Putin the

thug and so on. It is unacceptable.

In Russia no newspaper would dear

Cole Theresa May this word because

there is a certain level of

communication and you don't step

over it.

The Russian media said it

was a good thing to kill a traitor

so that's also a difference.

There

are no words used, nobody in Russia

is gloating that people were

attacked and nearly dead or what

ever happened to them, this is a

very false assumption that Russians

are cheering, chemical attack

happened in Britain.

I want to come

back to Russian response in the

second but let's stick with the

Allies, you were saying Theresa May

should have done more, been

stronger, Adam is setting out the

limitations on that, what do you

think the British government could

and should have done?

Something that

a lot of reports are kind of

examining is how Britain could

really hit Russians where it hurts.

Money. There is a lot of Russian

money, a lot of Russian investment

in London. It would be a good

thing...

Adam says they would not be

because it's too essential to the

British economy.

Yes but then there

are moments in which, take Brexit,

in which the national interest and

the economy have come after other

considerations. The moment there is

an attack...

I would have to say

some people would disagree and that

economic prospects under Brexit will

be fine but go on.

What I just

wanted to point out was if Britain

is under attack, a nerve agent used

in British streets, is that more

important are less important than

economic interest?

More for the UK

to do but what about the Allies,

that was mother point Adam was

making, everyone in Europe needs to

step up and support, everyone needs

to step up and rally the wagons?

There are views in the continent

that actually what happened in

Salisbury is the continuation of a

strategy from Russia in dividing

Britain from its allies. The

reactions have been very lukewarm

and this is for two reasons. One

that Putin is on the rise in Europe,

there is a lot of sympathy

especially in the new insurgent

political forces in Italy but not

only, in Greece, Austria and other

countries, a lot of sympathy for

what Putin stands for.

Explain that

momentarily?

It's a combination of

the outcome of years in which Putin

has been supporting also financially

certain new political forces in

Europe. In Italy the Northern

league. The 5-star movement. In

France Marine Le Pen. They have been

supported by Russian money. They

have also been supported in other

ways. So that is coming to fruition

when these political forces are

coming closer to power. But there is

also a problem with European

independence on Russian trade and

energy. There is little appetite in

Europe for more sanctions but also

in Germany, not only in those

countries I mentioned.

Coming to the

US position on this, these are

circumstances in which normally you

would expect a US president to weigh

in with a firmly ensconced Secretary

of State and get all their ducks in

a row and be firmly showing

leadership on the European continent

through Nato.

In the same way that I

think the rise of Putin in Europe is

the result of a long-term and

intelligent strategy of finding

divisions and expanding them, Putin

has done extremely well in his

political choices in the United

States. I don't say he's the only

reason Donald Trump is president but

he certainly contributed, he tried

to contribute through the hacking of

the e-mails, all of the Internet

research agency subversion that

Robert Miller has very carefully

detailed. This is not made up, this

is not a story. This is not

necessarily just to get Trump

elected but I think that was a

jackpot, it was good to cause

division and discord and he's got

it. A president who is so

embarrassed at the thought that he

is going to be accused of having

been gotten to the presidency

through Putin's interventions that

he denies Putin has anything to do

with anything. He is continually

downplaying evidence of Putin's

malign activities both in the United

States and abroad and he said a

little but this week he is sticking

by his ally in this funny Trump way

where he veers around and find

somebody to support week to week.

But the long-term application of

power which is what you need when

you run a complex alliance is

absence and it's having its effects

because the Allies cannot turn to

the United States. It means against

the notion that I am strong and I'm

going to win and do fine and make

life tough for you you cannot stop

it there is no war of ideas coming

back from Washington or the West

except that we are better in the

long run and we will win. It

actually, I am concerned.

Alexander

you are shaking your head.

I do not

agree with this. It is signalling

that the CIA and other agencies are

incompetent fools. The CIA has a

budget of 44 billion per year which

is more than, roughly the same as

Russia. All you people forget one

thing, West were listening and

hacking into Russia, the NSA

scandal, the Brits as well. To say

Russia is running rings around all

these huge intelligence services is

such rubbish. You have to understand

how the system works. These

intelligence agencies in the West

have been interfering in Russia for

so long that we have seen them pull

off a coup in two years, in Ukraine

in 2014. That was financed and

organised by the West. The

legitimate government fell. So the

Russians slept through it and did

not do anything.

So, obviously,

Ukraine, Crimea, is it annexation,

reunification, that's a whole big

topic we don't have time for.

I am

talking about the intelligent

services and the package that poor

Germans, poor Brits, poor Americans

are watching them all... Excuse me,

let me finish my point. The Russians

run rings around them.

You do not

think it is true?

It is impossible

because the same services in the

West are doing exactly the same

thing.

Is there any part of these

arguments that you recognise and

resonate with you about the

effectiveness of either the rise of

Putin in Europe or...

It is all made

up because the war is going on

between two sides and the Western

intelligence agencies are

interviewing now as we speak into

the Russian lection trying to tip...

That must be terrifying for Mr Putin

with his 80% chance...

I'm just

explaining to you things don't work

like that.

You made your point very

well but when we are talking born

the trouble is and why you think we

are being unfair to poor Russia is

that Russia has form in this area.

Georgi Markov was assassinated by

Bulgarian financed by the KGB. We

had Alexander Litvinenko in 2006 and

we have now had this... Outrageous

attack in Salisbury...

Let's not go

with history, it is not in your

favour... You invaded Iraq and

killed a million people... Libya you

destroyed...

Alexander! You have

said it. History is over, we are

going to talk about the future which

is a Russian election. You mentioned

it, let's go to it, one thing we

know about all of this is that

Putin's Russia is not going away,

Russia heads to the polls to choose

a president and although there are a

handful of other candidates, no one

expects them to get many votes

against Putin. So Alexander, first I

would like to ask you on this

election is the timing a coincident,

nerve agent attack on an otherwise

sleepy streets of a cathedral city

and provincial England, and a

Russian election upcoming?

It

damages Putin's and Russia's image.

And with the World Cup coming up, it

would be suicide for anyone in

Moscow to think it would benefit us.

Putin does not have a problem

because he is popular. His opponents

are not strong. So why would he

suddenly think I need to get more

votes for myself? It doesn't work

like this.

You think it's no

coincidence but it is a troublemaker

trying to undermine the President

Putin before his re-election?

It

undermines Russia.

Let's take that

around the table, coincidence or

not?

I don't think it is a

coincidence, it's possible it is a

botched operation, there's lots of

things, we cannot be sure how this

happened. I think it's likely

however that because there was the

call for a ball caught...

The

opposition leader who is barred from

standing...

Yes, there is

sensitivity about the results of the

election, turnout matters,

speculation that playing the West is

against us card which is very

powerful for Putin and has been for

a long time and has deep historical

roots in Russian attitudes towards

the world, the belief that Nato is

encircling, to do it any public way

and in a way which divides Britain

from Europe and makes Britain look

weak, this seems to me to be like a

trifecta of success for him.

So far

from undermining Putin it underlines

that it is with his agenda.

That's

right, I am strong and I am winning.

All of this, there has always been a

winning card to say the rest of the

world is attacking us and failing so

whoever did it, they did it to help

Putin's re-election and make him

strong.

So you think it takes more

people to the ballot and takes more

people to make their cross in his

box?

It strengthens the idea that

Russia is at war with the West and

the West is trying to take advantage

of it, no doubt about that.

It is

nice to agree with Alexander for a

change, I think the timing of this

was bizarre, it would not help Putin

and the question is to what extent

was this activity within his

control. I don't know. I think

Russia is a fairly chaotic place. I

think these agents are around. I

think there are a lot of people who

might want to take vengeance. Again,

the same with the Alexander

Litvinenko ace, I know I have to go

back on form, it really is unclear

who in Russia is masterminding it.

It could be Putin but I agree with

Alexander it is not in his interest

at this time just before an election

to stir this sort of thing up. And

the other really interesting thing,

if you want to kill someone there

are many ways, this is not just

killing, this is a public

demonstration of how Russian

traitors will be dealt with.

Moving

on to the rest of the election,

Alexander, many other issues in play

for Russia, the economy is in a mess

you would agree, what is this

election actually about?

I think it

is about national security because

Russians are very worried that for

example in the Ukraine for the first

time ever Nato troops are present.

Nato troops are on the Russian

border. This has never been

happening before, ever. So they are

now a direct threat to Russia.

Ukraine, with the loss of Ukraine

from under Russian influence it's a

terrifying disaster for the country

because of eight, nine million

Russians there and so on. Civil War

on your border which can erupt into

a bigger war. This is national

security. I would say President

Putin at the moment is a national

security can do that because

everything else is secondary now.

They have to protect themselves from

Nato which is moving in, there is a

very aggressive policy of the West

generally against Russia in Asia.

China is very worried as well so

they are operating with this.

Is

that national security argument

trumping the stagnant economy, is it

convenient or is it an accurate

description of events?

I think that

is the card that Putin likes to

play, national security.

Is that

because the Russian public are up

for it?

It works, 30% of Russians

thought it was a great power in the

year 2000, 70% think it is a great

power now. Cry very successful.

The

annexation or

they are potent political tour is

not just in Russia but in America in

some respects as well.

You can see

the Trump base, it's the appeal to

animal instincts, the idea that

things are going badly but we are

showing we can be tough and we will

be great again, somehow. There are

serious economic issues but I don't

think anyone is talking about them

and the Russian system has no answer

to them because it's this very funny

state capitalism system with circles

of influence and oligarchy. There is

some kind of capitalism but the

state institutions are weak, there

will not be any reforms which can

make much difference. I think there

is good enough, oil prices are good

enough, people need to look

appalling. It is all people who

think things are really bad, and one

change, young people are more

concerned, Moscow very different, a

lot of desire for change but I think

in the country people are willing to

stick with it, it is a start as

court election.

I want to asked to

think about what do you imagine

President Putin wants to do with yet

another term in office, another six

years, what is his plan as far as

you can guess?

You have to accept

that if you elect a KGB agent to

become your president he is heavily

influenced by his past. He is deeply

suspicious of the West, he bitterly

resents the break-up of the Russian

Soviet Union and is feeding I think

quite naturally, I think genuinely,

on these feelings that Russia is a

great country, it's not being

treated as a equal in the world

economy. The problem about that is

he goes about it in absolutely the

wrong way. This sort of act that he

performed in Salisbury or his

henchmen or his colleagues or

whoever, it just betrays the

thuggishness of Russian society.

That is the word Alexander wanted to

ban.

It is the word I want to use...

We have been there and we disagree.

I don't understand, let's avoid this

language... You say to provoke me

and I should share it here quietly?

You made your point, you did not sit

there quietly. What you think the is

for Putin?

His agenda is clear, in

the past 18 years he has been in

power. He wants to restore the

greatness of the former Soviet

empire, the former Russian influence

in the world and he's winning. His

idea, they call it political

technology, is proving the winning

idea because it's winning on all the

kind of theatres in which he has

pushed and pushed and he keeps

pushing. Nobody seems able really to

do anything about it. So I think

that is what he wants to do,

especially in the former satellite

countries of the Soviet Union. He

wants to restore a firm grip.

Alexander, what do you think that

will mean for people outside Russia,

Putin's agenda. It seems there is a

degree of unanimity about what that

agenda is, what do you think it will

mean for people outside Russia?

First of all I find it absolutely

and believable that Russia is

supposedly fixing a grip on its

neighbours when it lost influence in

every neighbouring country, every

neighbouring country had lost to the

influence of.

Alexander, we have got

literally less than two minutes so I

just wanted to say what you think

another six years of Putin will mean

for people outside Russia?

I think

it will be a tough six years for

Russia, it will be very tough for

Putin to deal with the West. The

West is irresponsible. What they are

doing is pushing the world to

conflict. I find it absolutely

amazing.

Do you worry about the risk

of conflict?

Yes but I don't think

it's because of the West are looking

for it. The West cannot figure out

what it's looking for right now. You

can make everything look like

encirclement, if Ukrainians in a

Democratic vote wanted to join the

European Union I don't think Mr

Putin would think it's a great idea

and we would have a war.

So if you

had to sum up in one word the coming

six years of Putin and the impact on

the rest of Europe, what would you

say?

If he is able to continue along

the path that he has which has been

very subtle, clever and crafty, I

think the West's fundamental

institutions are at risk in so far

even the American presidency has

been subverted.

One word?

We need to

take it seriously and reform the

world security situations. The fact

that China and Russia now in the UN

Security Council and they don't seem

to be forces for the...

We have to

leave it there. Thank you all so

much for joining us, great

discussion.

That's it for Dateline

London for this week -

we're back next week

at the same time.

You can of course comment on the

programme on Twitter @BBCCarrie.

Goodbye.