Browse content similar to 17/03/2018. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Hello and a very warm
welcome to Dateline London. | 0:00:23 | 0:00:25 | |
I'm Carrie Gracie. | 0:00:25 | 0:00:27 | |
This week we devote our
attention to Russia. | 0:00:27 | 0:00:31 | |
Russia abroad - after what the UK
and its allies called the first | 0:00:31 | 0:00:34 | |
offensive use of a nerve agent
in Europe since | 0:00:34 | 0:00:36 | |
the Second World War. | 0:00:36 | 0:00:42 | |
And Russia at home -
as a presidential election | 0:00:42 | 0:00:44 | |
is expected to deliver | 0:00:44 | 0:00:45 | |
Vladimir Putin another six years
in the Kremlin. | 0:00:45 | 0:00:47 | |
My guests this week: the former
Observer writer now political | 0:00:47 | 0:00:52 | |
commentator Adam Raphael. | 0:00:52 | 0:00:53 | |
Jef McAllister, the American | 0:00:53 | 0:00:54 | |
broadcaster, formerly the Head
of Time Magazine's London Bureau. | 0:00:54 | 0:00:56 | |
Italian journalist and film
maker Annalisa Piras, | 0:00:56 | 0:00:58 | |
and Russian political commentator,
and former Kremlin advisor, | 0:00:58 | 0:01:00 | |
Alexander Nekrassov. | 0:01:00 | 0:01:01 | |
Welcome to you all. | 0:01:01 | 0:01:11 | |
Let's start by discussing how the
government British is handling the | 0:01:11 | 0:01:14 | |
events of the last few days, how do
you think Theresa May is doing? I | 0:01:14 | 0:01:19 | |
think she's doing pretty well, she
was Home Secretary and this is an | 0:01:19 | 0:01:24 | |
area she is familiar. It is almost
pro forma what she has been doing, | 0:01:24 | 0:01:28 | |
slung out a few Russian spies, you
sound tough. She carried the House | 0:01:28 | 0:01:33 | |
of Commons with her, I think she's
done her political credibility quite | 0:01:33 | 0:01:36 | |
a lot of good and on the other hand
the opposition leader, Jeremy Corbyn | 0:01:36 | 0:01:41 | |
has not done well. Did not get the
mood of the house or the nation. She | 0:01:41 | 0:01:45 | |
has come out well, but the question
is can she then deliver on what she | 0:01:45 | 0:01:52 | |
is saying she will be tough... We
will come back to that in a moment | 0:01:52 | 0:01:56 | |
but first let's get everyone's take?
Well I don't agree with Adam simply | 0:01:56 | 0:02:05 | |
because the gravity of what happened
in my mind and in the mind of a lot | 0:02:05 | 0:02:11 | |
of observers should have warranted a
much tougher response. Expelling 23 | 0:02:11 | 0:02:16 | |
spies or diplomats is not on the
same level of response to what looks | 0:02:16 | 0:02:20 | |
like a deliberate attempt to
humiliate Britain before the Russian | 0:02:20 | 0:02:26 | |
elections. When you say deliberate
attempt that suggests you believe | 0:02:26 | 0:02:32 | |
the British government events that
this was ordered by the Russian | 0:02:32 | 0:02:35 | |
state and possibly by the president
himself? Well, Britain, France, | 0:02:35 | 0:02:40 | |
Germany and the United States have
issued a joint statement saying they | 0:02:40 | 0:02:44 | |
believe Russia is behind this
attack, chemical attack, on British | 0:02:44 | 0:02:49 | |
soil. If that is the case then
expelling 23 diplomats does not look | 0:02:49 | 0:02:54 | |
to me as an adequate response. The
US has its own issues with Russia at | 0:02:54 | 0:03:01 | |
the moment, but as you observe
events in London how do you think | 0:03:01 | 0:03:04 | |
Theresa May has handled it, how is
Jeremy Corbyn handle that? I think | 0:03:04 | 0:03:09 | |
if this is the last of it from
Theresa May it is not enough in | 0:03:09 | 0:03:14 | |
political terms, in global political
terms. If there are going to be | 0:03:14 | 0:03:18 | |
interesting uses of chemical agents
in Russia by British agents or other | 0:03:18 | 0:03:23 | |
kinds of complex sanctions perhaps
on a Russian oligarch money or cyber | 0:03:23 | 0:03:29 | |
attacks or other kinds of things
which might be in the same league or | 0:03:29 | 0:03:33 | |
doing something more serious then I
think OK, let's see. It takes a | 0:03:33 | 0:03:37 | |
while but those things in place and
she cannot do it all in the first | 0:03:37 | 0:03:40 | |
day. It's a traditional retaliation
to expel diplomats. I think it is | 0:03:40 | 0:03:45 | |
fine enough for oil, she's not a
particularly strong Prime Minister. | 0:03:45 | 0:03:50 | |
Slightly stronger looking but I
think Jeremy Corbyn got it wrong and | 0:03:50 | 0:03:55 | |
it's bad for him. It's almost a
disqualification for a Prime | 0:03:55 | 0:04:00 | |
Minister, potential Prime Minister
to be that soft on someone who is | 0:04:00 | 0:04:03 | |
attacking you. I think this will
come back to haunt him. Alexander I | 0:04:03 | 0:04:08 | |
suppose you are one step further
back which is questioning the | 0:04:08 | 0:04:13 | |
conviction of the British government
that the Russian state is behind | 0:04:13 | 0:04:17 | |
this? First of all I think Theresa
May allowed herself to be dragged | 0:04:17 | 0:04:20 | |
into this anti-Russian stands by the
media because the media started its | 0:04:20 | 0:04:25 | |
attack practically at once. She did
not allow to give enough time for | 0:04:25 | 0:04:30 | |
investigation to come up with some
solid evidence. Highly likely was | 0:04:30 | 0:04:36 | |
the phrase about Russian
involvement, that does not sound | 0:04:36 | 0:04:39 | |
convincing. I think our problem is
that she is being basically put in | 0:04:39 | 0:04:44 | |
an impossible position. There is
nothing much she can do to Russia. | 0:04:44 | 0:04:48 | |
If she attacks the oligarchs and the
money the Russians will applaud the | 0:04:48 | 0:04:53 | |
stop they don't like the oligarchs,
they don't like the money being kept | 0:04:53 | 0:04:57 | |
in London so that's not working.
Whatever happens, whatever she says | 0:04:57 | 0:05:05 | |
Russian gas will continue to heat
British homes. Big companies will | 0:05:05 | 0:05:09 | |
make billions in Russia, BP, Shell.
Nothing will change in this sense. | 0:05:09 | 0:05:13 | |
So does she really have anything she
can throw at Vladimir Putin? I think | 0:05:13 | 0:05:20 | |
the hype created before her
statement people thought she was | 0:05:20 | 0:05:23 | |
going to say something and she
didn't and she couldn't. That's the | 0:05:23 | 0:05:26 | |
problem I think Theresa May has. I
think that is a fair point, one of | 0:05:26 | 0:05:33 | |
the points of two previous British
ambassadors is that you never get | 0:05:33 | 0:05:36 | |
into a pressing match with the skunk
and the fact is we are involved with | 0:05:36 | 0:05:43 | |
a... Careful of the language. The
options open to Britain, the really | 0:05:43 | 0:05:51 | |
tough options would be really
difficult for this country to do, so | 0:05:51 | 0:05:54 | |
you have to go through these things,
you have to try and get your allies | 0:05:54 | 0:06:00 | |
behind you. We need without
international corporation there is | 0:06:00 | 0:06:03 | |
absolutely no way we can take the
really tough actions that would stop | 0:06:03 | 0:06:07 | |
Russia in its tracks. I personally
would favour trying to get Fifa and | 0:06:07 | 0:06:11 | |
get Britain out of the World Cup but
you could not really do that without | 0:06:11 | 0:06:16 | |
international corporation because
Britain alone withdrawing would not | 0:06:16 | 0:06:20 | |
be enough. We have got to show Putin
and his thugs what the West means | 0:06:20 | 0:06:28 | |
about this and to do that you need a
coherent response, I am sceptical of | 0:06:28 | 0:06:33 | |
that would come. Obviously Nato have
said the UK got US, France and | 0:06:33 | 0:06:41 | |
Germany bank that joint statement a
couple of days back and Nato said | 0:06:41 | 0:06:44 | |
that Russia is underestimating the
resolve of our lives and their | 0:06:44 | 0:06:47 | |
support for the UK, you disagree?
Warm words are one thing. Actual | 0:06:47 | 0:06:55 | |
actions, taking physical actions
against the Russian state and its | 0:06:55 | 0:06:59 | |
interests are quite another. For
instance huge amounts of Russian | 0:06:59 | 0:07:02 | |
debt are washed through the British
London financial markets. We would | 0:07:02 | 0:07:06 | |
never dare do anything about it
because it would be so damaging to | 0:07:06 | 0:07:10 | |
the economy which is why I sadly
agree on the single point alone with | 0:07:10 | 0:07:14 | |
Alexander that actually we are
getting a lot of words but | 0:07:14 | 0:07:17 | |
unfortunately... THEY TALK OVER EACH
OTHER You use the language Putin and | 0:07:17 | 0:07:25 | |
his thugs, this is bad manners. You
are a journalist and you should not | 0:07:25 | 0:07:29 | |
talk like a street thug yourself so
please forget this terminology. | 0:07:29 | 0:07:34 | |
Terminology aside do you disagree?
Also I think the British media, the | 0:07:34 | 0:07:41 | |
language is unacceptable. Putin the
thug and so on. It is unacceptable. | 0:07:41 | 0:07:45 | |
In Russia no newspaper would dear
Cole Theresa May this word because | 0:07:45 | 0:07:51 | |
there is a certain level of
communication and you don't step | 0:07:51 | 0:07:55 | |
over it. The Russian media said it
was a good thing to kill a traitor | 0:07:55 | 0:08:01 | |
so that's also a difference. There
are no words used, nobody in Russia | 0:08:01 | 0:08:06 | |
is gloating that people were
attacked and nearly dead or what | 0:08:06 | 0:08:10 | |
ever happened to them, this is a
very false assumption that Russians | 0:08:10 | 0:08:15 | |
are cheering, chemical attack
happened in Britain. I want to come | 0:08:15 | 0:08:20 | |
back to Russian response in the
second but let's stick with the | 0:08:20 | 0:08:23 | |
Allies, you were saying Theresa May
should have done more, been | 0:08:23 | 0:08:27 | |
stronger, Adam is setting out the
limitations on that, what do you | 0:08:27 | 0:08:31 | |
think the British government could
and should have done? Something that | 0:08:31 | 0:08:36 | |
a lot of reports are kind of
examining is how Britain could | 0:08:36 | 0:08:40 | |
really hit Russians where it hurts.
Money. There is a lot of Russian | 0:08:40 | 0:08:46 | |
money, a lot of Russian investment
in London. It would be a good | 0:08:46 | 0:08:50 | |
thing... Adam says they would not be
because it's too essential to the | 0:08:50 | 0:08:54 | |
British economy. Yes but then there
are moments in which, take Brexit, | 0:08:54 | 0:09:00 | |
in which the national interest and
the economy have come after other | 0:09:00 | 0:09:03 | |
considerations. The moment there is
an attack... I would have to say | 0:09:03 | 0:09:10 | |
some people would disagree and that
economic prospects under Brexit will | 0:09:10 | 0:09:13 | |
be fine but go on. What I just
wanted to point out was if Britain | 0:09:13 | 0:09:19 | |
is under attack, a nerve agent used
in British streets, is that more | 0:09:19 | 0:09:25 | |
important are less important than
economic interest? More for the UK | 0:09:25 | 0:09:30 | |
to do but what about the Allies,
that was mother point Adam was | 0:09:30 | 0:09:34 | |
making, everyone in Europe needs to
step up and support, everyone needs | 0:09:34 | 0:09:38 | |
to step up and rally the wagons?
There are views in the continent | 0:09:38 | 0:09:44 | |
that actually what happened in
Salisbury is the continuation of a | 0:09:44 | 0:09:49 | |
strategy from Russia in dividing
Britain from its allies. The | 0:09:49 | 0:09:56 | |
reactions have been very lukewarm
and this is for two reasons. One | 0:09:56 | 0:10:04 | |
that Putin is on the rise in Europe,
there is a lot of sympathy | 0:10:04 | 0:10:08 | |
especially in the new insurgent
political forces in Italy but not | 0:10:08 | 0:10:12 | |
only, in Greece, Austria and other
countries, a lot of sympathy for | 0:10:12 | 0:10:16 | |
what Putin stands for. Explain that
momentarily? It's a combination of | 0:10:16 | 0:10:23 | |
the outcome of years in which Putin
has been supporting also financially | 0:10:23 | 0:10:29 | |
certain new political forces in
Europe. In Italy the Northern | 0:10:29 | 0:10:36 | |
league. The 5-star movement. In
France Marine Le Pen. They have been | 0:10:36 | 0:10:41 | |
supported by Russian money. They
have also been supported in other | 0:10:41 | 0:10:45 | |
ways. So that is coming to fruition
when these political forces are | 0:10:45 | 0:10:49 | |
coming closer to power. But there is
also a problem with European | 0:10:49 | 0:10:54 | |
independence on Russian trade and
energy. There is little appetite in | 0:10:54 | 0:11:01 | |
Europe for more sanctions but also
in Germany, not only in those | 0:11:01 | 0:11:05 | |
countries I mentioned. Coming to the
US position on this, these are | 0:11:05 | 0:11:10 | |
circumstances in which normally you
would expect a US president to weigh | 0:11:10 | 0:11:14 | |
in with a firmly ensconced Secretary
of State and get all their ducks in | 0:11:14 | 0:11:19 | |
a row and be firmly showing
leadership on the European continent | 0:11:19 | 0:11:24 | |
through Nato. In the same way that I
think the rise of Putin in Europe is | 0:11:24 | 0:11:29 | |
the result of a long-term and
intelligent strategy of finding | 0:11:29 | 0:11:33 | |
divisions and expanding them, Putin
has done extremely well in his | 0:11:33 | 0:11:38 | |
political choices in the United
States. I don't say he's the only | 0:11:38 | 0:11:42 | |
reason Donald Trump is president but
he certainly contributed, he tried | 0:11:42 | 0:11:47 | |
to contribute through the hacking of
the e-mails, all of the Internet | 0:11:47 | 0:11:51 | |
research agency subversion that
Robert Miller has very carefully | 0:11:51 | 0:11:56 | |
detailed. This is not made up, this
is not a story. This is not | 0:11:56 | 0:12:01 | |
necessarily just to get Trump
elected but I think that was a | 0:12:01 | 0:12:05 | |
jackpot, it was good to cause
division and discord and he's got | 0:12:05 | 0:12:09 | |
it. A president who is so
embarrassed at the thought that he | 0:12:09 | 0:12:11 | |
is going to be accused of having
been gotten to the presidency | 0:12:11 | 0:12:16 | |
through Putin's interventions that
he denies Putin has anything to do | 0:12:16 | 0:12:20 | |
with anything. He is continually
downplaying evidence of Putin's | 0:12:20 | 0:12:26 | |
malign activities both in the United
States and abroad and he said a | 0:12:26 | 0:12:31 | |
little but this week he is sticking
by his ally in this funny Trump way | 0:12:31 | 0:12:35 | |
where he veers around and find
somebody to support week to week. | 0:12:35 | 0:12:40 | |
But the long-term application of
power which is what you need when | 0:12:40 | 0:12:43 | |
you run a complex alliance is
absence and it's having its effects | 0:12:43 | 0:12:47 | |
because the Allies cannot turn to
the United States. It means against | 0:12:47 | 0:12:51 | |
the notion that I am strong and I'm
going to win and do fine and make | 0:12:51 | 0:12:55 | |
life tough for you you cannot stop
it there is no war of ideas coming | 0:12:55 | 0:12:58 | |
back from Washington or the West
except that we are better in the | 0:12:58 | 0:13:02 | |
long run and we will win. It
actually, I am concerned. Alexander | 0:13:02 | 0:13:07 | |
you are shaking your head. I do not
agree with this. It is signalling | 0:13:07 | 0:13:15 | |
that the CIA and other agencies are
incompetent fools. The CIA has a | 0:13:15 | 0:13:22 | |
budget of 44 billion per year which
is more than, roughly the same as | 0:13:22 | 0:13:26 | |
Russia. All you people forget one
thing, West were listening and | 0:13:26 | 0:13:35 | |
hacking into Russia, the NSA
scandal, the Brits as well. To say | 0:13:35 | 0:13:40 | |
Russia is running rings around all
these huge intelligence services is | 0:13:40 | 0:13:42 | |
such rubbish. You have to understand
how the system works. These | 0:13:42 | 0:13:49 | |
intelligence agencies in the West
have been interfering in Russia for | 0:13:49 | 0:13:51 | |
so long that we have seen them pull
off a coup in two years, in Ukraine | 0:13:51 | 0:13:57 | |
in 2014. That was financed and
organised by the West. The | 0:13:57 | 0:14:04 | |
legitimate government fell. So the
Russians slept through it and did | 0:14:04 | 0:14:08 | |
not do anything. So, obviously,
Ukraine, Crimea, is it annexation, | 0:14:08 | 0:14:14 | |
reunification, that's a whole big
topic we don't have time for. I am | 0:14:14 | 0:14:18 | |
talking about the intelligent
services and the package that poor | 0:14:18 | 0:14:24 | |
Germans, poor Brits, poor Americans
are watching them all... Excuse me, | 0:14:24 | 0:14:27 | |
let me finish my point. The Russians
run rings around them. You do not | 0:14:27 | 0:14:33 | |
think it is true? It is impossible
because the same services in the | 0:14:33 | 0:14:36 | |
West are doing exactly the same
thing. Is there any part of these | 0:14:36 | 0:14:41 | |
arguments that you recognise and
resonate with you about the | 0:14:41 | 0:14:44 | |
effectiveness of either the rise of
Putin in Europe or... It is all made | 0:14:44 | 0:14:50 | |
up because the war is going on
between two sides and the Western | 0:14:50 | 0:14:54 | |
intelligence agencies are
interviewing now as we speak into | 0:14:54 | 0:14:57 | |
the Russian lection trying to tip...
That must be terrifying for Mr Putin | 0:14:57 | 0:15:04 | |
with his 80% chance... I'm just
explaining to you things don't work | 0:15:04 | 0:15:09 | |
like that. You made your point very
well but when we are talking born | 0:15:09 | 0:15:13 | |
the trouble is and why you think we
are being unfair to poor Russia is | 0:15:13 | 0:15:18 | |
that Russia has form in this area.
Georgi Markov was assassinated by | 0:15:18 | 0:15:29 | |
Bulgarian financed by the KGB. We
had Alexander Litvinenko in 2006 and | 0:15:29 | 0:15:35 | |
we have now had this... Outrageous
attack in Salisbury... Let's not go | 0:15:35 | 0:15:41 | |
with history, it is not in your
favour... You invaded Iraq and | 0:15:41 | 0:15:46 | |
killed a million people... Libya you
destroyed... Alexander! You have | 0:15:46 | 0:15:54 | |
said it. History is over, we are
going to talk about the future which | 0:15:54 | 0:16:00 | |
is a Russian election. You mentioned
it, let's go to it, one thing we | 0:16:00 | 0:16:04 | |
know about all of this is that
Putin's Russia is not going away, | 0:16:04 | 0:16:10 | |
Russia heads to the polls to choose
a president and although there are a | 0:16:10 | 0:16:13 | |
handful of other candidates, no one
expects them to get many votes | 0:16:13 | 0:16:19 | |
against Putin. So Alexander, first I
would like to ask you on this | 0:16:19 | 0:16:24 | |
election is the timing a coincident,
nerve agent attack on an otherwise | 0:16:24 | 0:16:28 | |
sleepy streets of a cathedral city
and provincial England, and a | 0:16:28 | 0:16:32 | |
Russian election upcoming? It
damages Putin's and Russia's image. | 0:16:32 | 0:16:42 | |
And with the World Cup coming up, it
would be suicide for anyone in | 0:16:42 | 0:16:46 | |
Moscow to think it would benefit us.
Putin does not have a problem | 0:16:46 | 0:16:50 | |
because he is popular. His opponents
are not strong. So why would he | 0:16:50 | 0:16:55 | |
suddenly think I need to get more
votes for myself? It doesn't work | 0:16:55 | 0:16:59 | |
like this. You think it's no
coincidence but it is a troublemaker | 0:16:59 | 0:17:03 | |
trying to undermine the President
Putin before his re-election? It | 0:17:03 | 0:17:07 | |
undermines Russia. Let's take that
around the table, coincidence or | 0:17:07 | 0:17:12 | |
not? I don't think it is a
coincidence, it's possible it is a | 0:17:12 | 0:17:17 | |
botched operation, there's lots of
things, we cannot be sure how this | 0:17:17 | 0:17:22 | |
happened. I think it's likely
however that because there was the | 0:17:22 | 0:17:26 | |
call for a ball caught... The
opposition leader who is barred from | 0:17:26 | 0:17:32 | |
standing... Yes, there is
sensitivity about the results of the | 0:17:32 | 0:17:41 | |
election, turnout matters,
speculation that playing the West is | 0:17:41 | 0:17:44 | |
against us card which is very
powerful for Putin and has been for | 0:17:44 | 0:17:47 | |
a long time and has deep historical
roots in Russian attitudes towards | 0:17:47 | 0:17:52 | |
the world, the belief that Nato is
encircling, to do it any public way | 0:17:52 | 0:17:56 | |
and in a way which divides Britain
from Europe and makes Britain look | 0:17:56 | 0:18:01 | |
weak, this seems to me to be like a
trifecta of success for him. So far | 0:18:01 | 0:18:07 | |
from undermining Putin it underlines
that it is with his agenda. That's | 0:18:07 | 0:18:12 | |
right, I am strong and I am winning.
All of this, there has always been a | 0:18:12 | 0:18:19 | |
winning card to say the rest of the
world is attacking us and failing so | 0:18:19 | 0:18:22 | |
whoever did it, they did it to help
Putin's re-election and make him | 0:18:22 | 0:18:27 | |
strong. So you think it takes more
people to the ballot and takes more | 0:18:27 | 0:18:33 | |
people to make their cross in his
box? It strengthens the idea that | 0:18:33 | 0:18:37 | |
Russia is at war with the West and
the West is trying to take advantage | 0:18:37 | 0:18:40 | |
of it, no doubt about that. It is
nice to agree with Alexander for a | 0:18:40 | 0:18:46 | |
change, I think the timing of this
was bizarre, it would not help Putin | 0:18:46 | 0:18:50 | |
and the question is to what extent
was this activity within his | 0:18:50 | 0:18:54 | |
control. I don't know. I think
Russia is a fairly chaotic place. I | 0:18:54 | 0:19:00 | |
think these agents are around. I
think there are a lot of people who | 0:19:00 | 0:19:03 | |
might want to take vengeance. Again,
the same with the Alexander | 0:19:03 | 0:19:09 | |
Litvinenko ace, I know I have to go
back on form, it really is unclear | 0:19:09 | 0:19:14 | |
who in Russia is masterminding it.
It could be Putin but I agree with | 0:19:14 | 0:19:18 | |
Alexander it is not in his interest
at this time just before an election | 0:19:18 | 0:19:21 | |
to stir this sort of thing up. And
the other really interesting thing, | 0:19:21 | 0:19:26 | |
if you want to kill someone there
are many ways, this is not just | 0:19:26 | 0:19:31 | |
killing, this is a public
demonstration of how Russian | 0:19:31 | 0:19:33 | |
traitors will be dealt with. Moving
on to the rest of the election, | 0:19:33 | 0:19:40 | |
Alexander, many other issues in play
for Russia, the economy is in a mess | 0:19:40 | 0:19:45 | |
you would agree, what is this
election actually about? I think it | 0:19:45 | 0:19:49 | |
is about national security because
Russians are very worried that for | 0:19:49 | 0:19:53 | |
example in the Ukraine for the first
time ever Nato troops are present. | 0:19:53 | 0:19:59 | |
Nato troops are on the Russian
border. This has never been | 0:19:59 | 0:20:04 | |
happening before, ever. So they are
now a direct threat to Russia. | 0:20:04 | 0:20:09 | |
Ukraine, with the loss of Ukraine
from under Russian influence it's a | 0:20:09 | 0:20:14 | |
terrifying disaster for the country
because of eight, nine million | 0:20:14 | 0:20:18 | |
Russians there and so on. Civil War
on your border which can erupt into | 0:20:18 | 0:20:23 | |
a bigger war. This is national
security. I would say President | 0:20:23 | 0:20:28 | |
Putin at the moment is a national
security can do that because | 0:20:28 | 0:20:32 | |
everything else is secondary now.
They have to protect themselves from | 0:20:32 | 0:20:36 | |
Nato which is moving in, there is a
very aggressive policy of the West | 0:20:36 | 0:20:40 | |
generally against Russia in Asia.
China is very worried as well so | 0:20:40 | 0:20:46 | |
they are operating with this. Is
that national security argument | 0:20:46 | 0:20:52 | |
trumping the stagnant economy, is it
convenient or is it an accurate | 0:20:52 | 0:20:57 | |
description of events? I think that
is the card that Putin likes to | 0:20:57 | 0:21:04 | |
play, national security. Is that
because the Russian public are up | 0:21:04 | 0:21:07 | |
for it? It works, 30% of Russians
thought it was a great power in the | 0:21:07 | 0:21:15 | |
year 2000, 70% think it is a great
power now. Cry very successful. The | 0:21:15 | 0:21:20 | |
annexation or | 0:21:20 | 0:21:24 | |
they are potent political tour is
not just in Russia but in America in | 0:21:27 | 0:21:31 | |
some respects as well. You can see
the Trump base, it's the appeal to | 0:21:31 | 0:21:37 | |
animal instincts, the idea that
things are going badly but we are | 0:21:37 | 0:21:40 | |
showing we can be tough and we will
be great again, somehow. There are | 0:21:40 | 0:21:45 | |
serious economic issues but I don't
think anyone is talking about them | 0:21:45 | 0:21:48 | |
and the Russian system has no answer
to them because it's this very funny | 0:21:48 | 0:21:55 | |
state capitalism system with circles
of influence and oligarchy. There is | 0:21:55 | 0:21:59 | |
some kind of capitalism but the
state institutions are weak, there | 0:21:59 | 0:22:05 | |
will not be any reforms which can
make much difference. I think there | 0:22:05 | 0:22:09 | |
is good enough, oil prices are good
enough, people need to look | 0:22:09 | 0:22:13 | |
appalling. It is all people who
think things are really bad, and one | 0:22:13 | 0:22:18 | |
change, young people are more
concerned, Moscow very different, a | 0:22:18 | 0:22:21 | |
lot of desire for change but I think
in the country people are willing to | 0:22:21 | 0:22:24 | |
stick with it, it is a start as
court election. I want to asked to | 0:22:24 | 0:22:31 | |
think about what do you imagine
President Putin wants to do with yet | 0:22:31 | 0:22:35 | |
another term in office, another six
years, what is his plan as far as | 0:22:35 | 0:22:41 | |
you can guess? You have to accept
that if you elect a KGB agent to | 0:22:41 | 0:22:45 | |
become your president he is heavily
influenced by his past. He is deeply | 0:22:45 | 0:22:51 | |
suspicious of the West, he bitterly
resents the break-up of the Russian | 0:22:51 | 0:22:58 | |
Soviet Union and is feeding I think
quite naturally, I think genuinely, | 0:22:58 | 0:23:05 | |
on these feelings that Russia is a
great country, it's not being | 0:23:05 | 0:23:08 | |
treated as a equal in the world
economy. The problem about that is | 0:23:08 | 0:23:14 | |
he goes about it in absolutely the
wrong way. This sort of act that he | 0:23:14 | 0:23:20 | |
performed in Salisbury or his
henchmen or his colleagues or | 0:23:20 | 0:23:23 | |
whoever, it just betrays the
thuggishness of Russian society. | 0:23:23 | 0:23:30 | |
That is the word Alexander wanted to
ban. It is the word I want to use... | 0:23:30 | 0:23:36 | |
We have been there and we disagree.
I don't understand, let's avoid this | 0:23:36 | 0:23:43 | |
language... You say to provoke me
and I should share it here quietly? | 0:23:43 | 0:23:48 | |
You made your point, you did not sit
there quietly. What you think the is | 0:23:48 | 0:23:55 | |
for Putin? His agenda is clear, in
the past 18 years he has been in | 0:23:55 | 0:24:00 | |
power. He wants to restore the
greatness of the former Soviet | 0:24:00 | 0:24:05 | |
empire, the former Russian influence
in the world and he's winning. His | 0:24:05 | 0:24:12 | |
idea, they call it political
technology, is proving the winning | 0:24:12 | 0:24:18 | |
idea because it's winning on all the
kind of theatres in which he has | 0:24:18 | 0:24:22 | |
pushed and pushed and he keeps
pushing. Nobody seems able really to | 0:24:22 | 0:24:27 | |
do anything about it. So I think
that is what he wants to do, | 0:24:27 | 0:24:33 | |
especially in the former satellite
countries of the Soviet Union. He | 0:24:33 | 0:24:37 | |
wants to restore a firm grip.
Alexander, what do you think that | 0:24:37 | 0:24:45 | |
will mean for people outside Russia,
Putin's agenda. It seems there is a | 0:24:45 | 0:24:52 | |
degree of unanimity about what that
agenda is, what do you think it will | 0:24:52 | 0:24:55 | |
mean for people outside Russia?
First of all I find it absolutely | 0:24:55 | 0:25:00 | |
and believable that Russia is
supposedly fixing a grip on its | 0:25:00 | 0:25:05 | |
neighbours when it lost influence in
every neighbouring country, every | 0:25:05 | 0:25:09 | |
neighbouring country had lost to the
influence of. Alexander, we have got | 0:25:09 | 0:25:14 | |
literally less than two minutes so I
just wanted to say what you think | 0:25:14 | 0:25:18 | |
another six years of Putin will mean
for people outside Russia? I think | 0:25:18 | 0:25:22 | |
it will be a tough six years for
Russia, it will be very tough for | 0:25:22 | 0:25:26 | |
Putin to deal with the West. The
West is irresponsible. What they are | 0:25:26 | 0:25:30 | |
doing is pushing the world to
conflict. I find it absolutely | 0:25:30 | 0:25:34 | |
amazing. Do you worry about the risk
of conflict? Yes but I don't think | 0:25:34 | 0:25:40 | |
it's because of the West are looking
for it. The West cannot figure out | 0:25:40 | 0:25:44 | |
what it's looking for right now. You
can make everything look like | 0:25:44 | 0:25:50 | |
encirclement, if Ukrainians in a
Democratic vote wanted to join the | 0:25:50 | 0:25:54 | |
European Union I don't think Mr
Putin would think it's a great idea | 0:25:54 | 0:25:57 | |
and we would have a war. So if you
had to sum up in one word the coming | 0:25:57 | 0:26:01 | |
six years of Putin and the impact on
the rest of Europe, what would you | 0:26:01 | 0:26:06 | |
say? If he is able to continue along
the path that he has which has been | 0:26:06 | 0:26:11 | |
very subtle, clever and crafty, I
think the West's fundamental | 0:26:11 | 0:26:17 | |
institutions are at risk in so far
even the American presidency has | 0:26:17 | 0:26:21 | |
been subverted. One word? We need to
take it seriously and reform the | 0:26:21 | 0:26:30 | |
world security situations. The fact
that China and Russia now in the UN | 0:26:30 | 0:26:35 | |
Security Council and they don't seem
to be forces for the... We have to | 0:26:35 | 0:26:39 | |
leave it there. Thank you all so
much for joining us, great | 0:26:39 | 0:26:42 | |
discussion. | 0:26:42 | 0:26:44 | |
That's it for Dateline
London for this week - | 0:26:44 | 0:26:47 | |
we're back next week
at the same time. | 0:26:47 | 0:26:49 | |
You can of course comment on the
programme on Twitter @BBCCarrie. | 0:26:49 | 0:26:51 | |
Goodbye. | 0:26:51 | 0:26:53 |