Part 1 Election 2016: Northern Ireland

It's results day - the day your votes count for something.

Today you'll find out who's line to take the decisions,

make the laws and take responsibility at Stormont.

Today you will find out who is in line to take the decisions, make the

laws and take on the responsibility. If the campaign didn't exactly

ignite, today it catches fire for the candidates who'll find out

if your votes have put them You'll hear a lot of numbers

and statistics in the course But here's the simple figure -

276 politicians are competing Results are already

starting to come in. David Hilditch of the DUP

in East Antrim became the first MLA Followed by a glut of results. The

biggest night-time you long of the Alliance.

And in mid-Ulster, Linda Dillon, Milne and Patsy McGlone. More on the

other results shortly. The ballot boxes were opened here in

Belfast and elsewhere this morning. These are pictures we

recorded here first thing And this was the first box to be

opened, all the votes tumbling For those of you who want to know -

there could be roughly anywhere between 700 and 1,000 votes

in the average ballot box. The count's well underway here

for the city's four constituencies. This of course is a brand new venue

- for those of you used to seeing the familiar space

of the King's Hall but you'll become very familiar with this new venue

as the day and evening We'll, of course, be bringing

you the outcomes from all 18 constituencies where the votes

are being calculated. Our reporters are at

all the count centres - eight of them in total -

where the stories and drama will emerge, minute by minute until

the final seat is decided. And you can keep in touch with us

and all developments on social media We'll be hearing from leading

politicians throughout the afternoon and evening -

but also here we'll have business people, educationalists

and commentators who'll be talking about whether this new venue

will help put us in a fresh And of course because election

counts draw out victory and defeat, we'll have a cartoonist

to illustrate any of the emotion We have results in. Our Political

Editor Mark Davenport is ready to drill into the figures.

I'm her with Nicholas Whyte. Trying to unpick a lot of the detail that

emother-in-lawings in proportional wrens elections. Hower efficient

have the parties been in marshalling the vote management? Will some of

the independents or smaller parties break through and where will the

trends emerge? And the relationships between the DUP, the Ulster Unionist

Party and the SDLP and the aligns for the first time in years. What do

you make of it so far. Level in many areas. But up in the unionist areas

and down in the nationalist areas. More details later and tracking the

counts and gauging where they have been going and if there has been

tactical voting. Who knows, the figures may allow us to make

predictions about the final six seats.

So, what is the new Stormont going to look like.

Throughout this even and tomorrow, we will see the benches fill up with

108 MLAs. Can Martin McGuinness take the job

of First Minister? Are the SDLP on the Ulster Unionists on the way

back. Or could we see the rise of independence and the smaller

parties? Join me as we watch the new assembly take shape seat by seat.

Our reporter Will Leech is at Newton Abbey. Where the South Antrim count

is going on as well, Will? Gnawed Sorry, we have a bit of a technical

problem. A brilliant picture of Will Leech looking well. Lots of things

happening in East Antrim but unable to hear what he is saying. Back to

him when we establish when we can establish communications properly.

The first seat in South Antrim. Now back to Belfast. To the Titanic

Exhibition Centre, Tara is there where there are four big counts

taking place. There is no mistaking the importance

of the 24 seats to be decided. The city has been, is and probably

always will be the big battle ground for the parties. The exhibition

centre sits where once ships were built and is close to the host of

new buildings, housing all manners of now employers. During the

history, Belfast has experienced turmoils, troubles, triumphs and

defeats. It generates assembly seats and can be a significant

psychological boost for any political party. All five big

parties have a lot to win and lose, there are likely to be tight races.

Lisa McAlister can let us know how the counts are going. Well, all

morning the staff here have been verifying the votes, counting them.

In the last half an hour a flurry of activity with three constituencies

declaring the first preference votes. We start with the East

Belfast. We had the DUP's Joanne Bunting topping the poll with 5538

votes. Followed by the aligns party's Naomi long. They are both

elected. A little bit of girl power in East Belfast. South Belfast, a

different story there, the former Lord Mayor of Belfast topped the

poll. But nobody yet elected there as making the quota. And Gerry Kelly

is elected with 5695 votes. We are just about to get the first

preference declaration from West Belfast. But for the moment, I think

we can go to Conor McCally in Pam bridge.

Yes, two seats being counted. The Upper Ban and the nuclearry and

Armagh seats. Sinn Fein is mounting a move for a second seat. It could

be Dolores Kelly of the SDLP. I have been talking to her. She is in a

scrap for the seat. In Newry and Armagh, much as you were. Three Sinn

Fein, one new UUP, one DUP. The question is which of the two SDLP

candidates who could come through? It looks like we could see results

there. A few results in mid-Ulster for the

MLA's return there. Robbie Meredith is at the Seven Towers Leisure

Centre. You have had a bit of activity

earlier on, Robbie? By lunch time we had four MLAs in. Ian Milton topped

the poll, followed by the Agriculture Minister, Michelle

O'Neill and Linda Dylan. The SDLP's Patsy McGlone over the quota, so

elected and the UULP I have spoken to their candidate. But we could be

set for a battle for a seat between the DUP candidates. Pulling almost

an equal number of votes. When it comes to North ant trim, the DUP

have four candidates there. They will expect to get at least three

in. But expecting to see how TUV's Jim McAllister and the Sinn Fein's

McKay and robin Swan looking to get back. We are told to expect a

declaration certainly within the next hour.

If the Ulster Unionists are looking to build on Westminster, then Lagan

Valley presents a possible opportunity. Not only is the party

looking to regain the seat taken by basil McCrea the last time but

looking to add a second seat at the expense of the DUP in a DUP

stronghold. Coming to the election with four seats in Lagan Valley.

They recognise it is a fight to hold all four. They have made it to

three. Paul Gibbon has topped the poll but about 200 votes short from

the first round from being elected. He takes over from Edwin Poots as

top dog for the DUP in Lagan Valley. Talking of former DUP Health

Minister, what about Jim Wells, he is here. They are counting the South

Down votes. He nearly did not get into the centre having not turned up

without Osmed will ID, he sip says he will return to Stormont.

I don't expect change from the two SDLP and two Sinn Fein MLAs elected

the last time. But with Mr Wells getting in it leaves a scrap for the

final unionist seat. The than, independent unionist, John

McAllister who told me before coming on air that he needs a minor miracle

to be re-elected, he says that his Stormont career is over.

Here at the Foyle Arena, there is a battle for the supremacy between the

SDLP and Sinn Fein it stands at 3-2-2. This time, Martin McGuinness

is back on home turf. Can he swing fortunes around and take the

leadership from the SDLP? We will have to wait and see. The first

reference is in. Colin Eastwood five on the nos. Martin McGuinness got 37

more votes. But some way to go yet. The impressive performer? It is

Eamon McCann. Something in the region of over 4,100 first

preference votes. Can can he make up the difference to the cost of the

SDLP? We will have to wait and see. Expect Gary Middleton to take a seat

and retain it for the DUP. In East Londonderry, a loss of two familiar

faces. Gregory Campbell to concentrate on Westminster and John

Dallat. He is retiring from active politics. Now both parties expect to

retain the seats that they hold. Sinn Fein are trying to go for

another at the expense of the SDLP. And Clare Sugden, she is walking

about the count centre, an independent, holding on to that

seat. There was speculation she may lose it but she is quietly

confident. So all to ply for here in East Londonderry and Foyle.

Arlene Foster has arrived atoma Leisure Centre, where she is

expected to top the poll in south ar Mania. The two Ulster unionist

candidates have not done so well. The vote is evenly split between

them. On the nationalist side Michelle guild knew was defeated

here 12 months ago but after that, it is anybody's guess after the Sinn

Fein selection debacle left them with four candidates defending three

seats, the SDLP are hoping to take advantage and regain the seat that

they lost five years ago. Over in West Tyrone, Daniel McCrossan seems

to have performed strongly against the challenge of the former SDLP

councillors who left the party and stood as independent Social

Democrats democrats. He could retain his seat meaning that things are as

they are in West Tyrone. 18 candidates standing in West Tyrone.

Booking for Monday in case the count continues into a third day but so

far, things progressing smoothly. I'm in Bangor for the constituencies

here. Here there are two results in. A cluster of high-profile candidates

here. Three DUP ministers and the Ulster unionist leader, Mike

Nesbitt. He had a second MLA last time but McNarry defected to Ukip.

If looks like he may not hold tonne the second seat. Mike Nesbitt topped

the poll up against Michelle McAveen. He is stunned. They are

elected and a safe seat for Kelly Armstrong. The fight there now is

between Joe Boyle of the SDLP and possibly a second Ulster unionist

candidate. Joe Boyle could be the first nationalist for the area.

Then three DUP's for it to become a DUP stronghold. And the Alliance,

Stephen Fahey looking safe. And Steven Agnew has polled strongly

here as well. We know in the past this count has finished in one day,

so fingers crossed. We have found the gremlin in Newton

happy and had a serious talk with it. It is now cooperating. Will

Leitch is there. You are looking fantastic before, but we could not

hear you. Just talk us through what is happening. You have the East

Antrim and South Antrim count? That is right. What a huge cheer there

was for David Hilditch, as he romped home for the DUP. The first MLA

elected, clear of the quota. Paul Girvan was the DUP man in South

Antrim, almost elected, just six votes shy. We actually hearing the

second preference... You can hear the cheering, I suspect that might

be Paul Girvan going through now as the second DUP MLA and elected. So,

no surprise in an area that gets a very strong unionist vote. David

Ford is up for election. He still wants to be an MLA. He was not happy

with his first preference vote, but still optimistic. Two things to

mention, two who are not standing again, Sammy Wilson of the DUP,

Danny Kinahan of the UUP. We will hear more from the reporters at the

count centres. We are on air until midnight. Hopefully lots of results

until then. This is East Antrim. We'll was talking through that. The

result, David Hilditch of the DUP returned. No great surprise. It is a

DUP heartland. Add three seats, we will see of the other come home. I

presume they are feeling pretty good. Mid Ulster that is the result

after the first stage. Three Sinn Fein candidates home comfortable

you. Patsy McGlone as well for the SDLP. That is the share in Mid

Ulster. No surprise, pretty strong showing from Sinn Fein, 46%. The DUP

with 18%. The SDLP, 15, Patsy McGlone, a significant figure in the

party, home and dry. The change on Mid Ulster, an 2011, the last

Assembly election, Sinn Fein got the three home, but down a little bit.

The DUP up, the SDLP up slightly, Ulster Unionists up. We will see how

the rest of the seats shape up. This is East Belfast. Two MLAs home.

Joanne Bunting and Naomi Long. No surprise that Naomi Long is home in

east Belfast. The deputy leader of the matter alliance Party. -- deputy

leader of the Alliance party. In East Belfast, they are chasing three

seats, hopeful they can get three seats. We have a couple more, DUP

down a little bit. That is not necessarily mean it is a disaster as

far seats are concerned. This is the state the parties, I am going to

introduce the panellists to talk about some of the figures.

That says People Before Profit has one won. I don't know if it is

confirmed. It is on the graphic, it is literally confirmed as we speak.

My three guests, we are going to have a word about this. Everybody

said there was a quota for Jerry Kyle, there was? Yes, the

interesting thing will be at whose expense it comes. It is maybe a sign

of one of the most hopeful things about this election, that there is a

plethora of candidates. Independence of a more unusual hue. He topped the

poll, 22.9% share. The next candidate behind him was Alex Maskey

of Sinn Fein, with 4700. Frank McCoubrey is in next place. There

was a lot of speculation he might struggle. Might be trying to manage

expectations, by talking about how well Gerry Carroll was going to do.

Here's comfortably over what he got last year in the Westminster

election, that is quite a stunning result. Frank McCoubrey Zucker

result will probably impact on that as well. I want to go back to

Belfast and the count at the Titanic Exhibition Centre. That news will

come through. I have two of the first Belfast MLAs

to be elected. The DUP, a completely new life in terms of the public

face, what will you bring to Stormont? I bring some level of

experience, having worked at Stormont for 18 years. LCD other

side of it as an MLA. There are challenges ahead. I'm looking

forward to finding my feet and finding my niche. I look forward to

serving people to the rest of my ability. What was the message you

are getting on the doorstep? A number of things. People are keen to

see improvements. People, our message resonated with the people of

Belfast. People are keen to see good health care, good education, people

want DUP ministers, because people have seen the DUP ministers deliver.

The issue for us was that people want us to take them all, and now we

have a choice to make. Congratulations on your election,

you are a familiar face at Stormont. For the general voter out there,

will it be more of the same? I don't think so. What you have to do to

continue being elected in any party is to improve what you did last

time. That is what we are trying to do. We have two weeks to put forward

a proposal for government and we are confident of doing that. It will

involve the five parties and the Executive, I don't think that will

change. We have to improve on it. Things like ourselves and the DUP,

we have said we are up for putting ?1 billion into health. It needs to

be more than money, it needs to be a complete revamp of the way we are

dealing with health. The issues are health, education and jobs, as well

as local issues. Will come back to those topics in a moment. I want to

ask you about Gerry Carroll in west Belfast. Topping the poll, great

success, not so good a message for Sinn Fein, whose seat is eager to

one of yours? Good question, I don't have the answer. In West Belfast,

indeed anywhere, it is almost impossible to take five out of six

seats. We did it last time in West Belfast. We knew it would be a

fight. We knew that Gerry Carroll was going to poll well and strongly.

I think it is up there for the five seats and we are still in with a

possibility of taking all five. I think we will certainly take four.

We might take the five yet, because it is not only them in their, I

don't think the SDLP will be pleased with where they are sitting. What

about his appeal? Is it a case that Sinn Fein have taken their eye off

the ball in terms of local issues in West Belfast, and he has been able

to come in? We work with People Before Profit in the south. We will

work with People Before Profit in the North. There are issues which we

agree on and issues which we might disagree on, but would we take our

eye off the ball? I hope not. Every election has to BA lesson, finding

out if we are taking the right view to represent people. If people tell

us we're doing something wrong, we will take heed to that. After the

first count, we are holding up our vote across the North and we hope to

improve on that. We will see what happens at the end of the day. You

both mention health and education as being big issues, but they are the

department is your parties had, and things are going wrong, people are

not satisfied? In everything in life, there can always be

improvements. Those are the issues that affect everybody. Everybody

wants their child to have a good education, every child has the right

to a good education, the same with health care, we all want folks to be

looked after properly. But particularly Protestant young boys,

they are not getting an education or for some reason not coming out with

the results? The DUP has taken enormous strides in trying to

address those difficulties. We have set up the APG to deal with

educational underachievement, that is something we take very seriously,

particularly with Protestant boys. Jobs are an enormous issue, the

economy, people need to have jobs, not just low paid jobs, good jobs

that bring investment into Northern Ireland. We have been much more

successful than we have envisaged in the past mandate and I think we can

build on that, we have a strong foundation on which to build. Do you

think you will bring your running mates with you into the Assembly? I

think both of my running mate will make it on their own merits. They

are well-known and well liked candidates, renowned for doing their

jobs. My colleagues can stand on their own two feet and make it,

absolutely. There has clearly been good about management by the DUP,

although you are well known as a former Castlereagh councillor, they

have been able to bring in first? We did our best, we knew it was

important that we have a reasonable share to stay ahead, I think we have

managed our vote well in East Belfast and we are pleased with how

it has gone. A final point about turnout, there is talk about voter

apathy being a problem. It doesn't look like that has been the case,

the turnout is quite healthy? Forgive me, I think the media with a

once saying it was going to be below 50. Most of them were saying it

would be below 50%. That has been proven to be wrong. -- had immediate

worthy ones. If you compare it not just with Westminster but the

previous Assembly, the outcome has been higher. People are still

interested and driven by it. If you look at rural areas, you can see

there is always a high vote out there. The interest is still there,

so it should be. It was hard enough to get a democratic way forward, we

have found it. It is a question of legitimacy, if it went below the

50%, you are really questioning the mandate? There is a big question

around if, the fact is that it didn't. We would be having a

different conversation. The comments have been proved wrong, and there is

still the interest. In terms of other European countries and

regions, we are still ahead when it comes down to voter interest. OK,

congratulations, thank you for joining us.

I think we are going to see pictures of some of the candidates in South

Down. It has not been a good day for the former NI21 leader. He was

standing as an independent, he knew it was going to be a tough day for

him. The figures have not been particularly good for John

McCallister. He has been eliminated, second from bottom. 1156 first

preference. He will be bitterly disappointed at that. He was the

person that steered through the Private members Bill or opposition.

It is perfectly possible we might have an opposition for the first

time in Stormont, a formal opposition for the first time. The

man who helped guide that onto the statute books will not have any

part. He has conceded defeat, he has been eliminated and hopefully we

will hear from him shortly. Jim Wells came third in South Down, with

5033 first preferences. We hope to hear from him shortly. He was topped

by Sinead Bradley of the SDLP. I think we can hear from Colum

Eastwood. He joins us from the Foyle count. Foyle and East Londonderry

are being counted at the same place, the Foyle Arena. I wonder what your

impression is of where we are so far? I think you were beaten by just

a couple of votes, by Martin McGuinness, to the top spot. He got

5037 first preferences, you got exactly 5000. Was that an honourable

performance by yourself? I think so, we have beaten Sinn Fein

in the election in Foyle. We increased the vote over Sinn Fein

from the last time. So we are happy with that. It is clear that this is

the year of the independents and the people are angry with Stormont's

performance. I think that the independents have done well in the

election. Do you think that Eamon McCann is to

pick up a seat in Foyle? There are is a lot of counting to be done. But

he has done well, as have other independents. That is an example of

people's frustration at the lack of delivery from Stormont, especially

in this constituency. But there are lots of votes to be counted. As you

and others will know it will be a day or two before we know the full

results. That will be the case across the north.

Let's talk about the SDLP, do you think you can retain the three seats

in Foyle? There has been speculation about that. A lot of people are

suggesting that Gerry Diver could lose out? Well, we need to wait and

see. As I say, there are lots of votes to be counted. I have seen

many people wouldn'ted out, and the next day they are back in the race.

What is clear is the SDLP have outpolled the Sinn Fein once again

in the constituency. We were behind in the local government election,

now we are ahead, further than the last Assembly elections. But the

independents have done well. That has been the case right across

Ireland. We are seeing it here in Derry today.

And Anne McClusky did well, just in behind McCann. And the other two are

ahead of Gerry Diver. ... I don't think it will stay like that. There

are a number of eliminations to be had. Nobody hit the quotas, that has

impact as well. It is too early to say what is going to happen. As it

is in many other constituencies. We knew this would be a battle for the

last seat. We set out to see off the challenge from Martin McGuinness who

came to Derry. Who said he would get three seats. I don't think that will

happen. You will take pleasure in Martin

McGuinness is moved from mid-Ulster into Foyle and Sinn Fein don't grow

the seat tally, in other words, staying with two, and one of the

previous MLA's lose a seat that would give you considerable

satisfaction? It is not about satisfaction or pleasure, it is

about saying that Martin came here to tell us he would take three

seats, I don't think he will. There was a battle for the last seat. I

don't think it is with Sinn Fein but the independents. That is a factor

that we have seen across the north and the island as the Executive have

not delivered for places like Derry. But the SDLP have done well. They

have been under huge pressure with Martin McGuinness coming back. The

Deputy First Minister, with a huge professional, he has come back to

Derry, we outpolled Sinn Fein. That is a huge success.

OK. We will talk with you in due course. Thank you very much, Collum

Eastwood in the meantime on your election. Mike Nesbitt, the leader

of the Ulster Unionist Party joins us for his count. Congratulations to

you. You talked to the poll in Strangford? Yes, 4673. That was a

quota. It is a bit of a shock. It is also gratifying. Humbling. I am

grateful to the elect rate of Strangford. Not least as the last

time I finished fifth and never made the quota. But that said, Mark, I am

running with a team-mate, Phillip Smith, the second seat was hard won

in 2011. We had a fight to retain it. But as you know in these single

transferrable vote counts there is no certainty in terms of where the

transfer votes go, it will be well into Saturday before we know how the

six seats pan out. So I am saying that I would have been happy to

finish fifth and sixth with Phillip, rather than first and potentially

7th and 8th. It is a complicated seat. Lots of

figures in there having a tilt at the 5th and the 6th vote. But it has

to be a big target seat. You need to recover what was an Ulster Unionist

seat. So you need the two seats to talk about the Ulster Unionistster

Unionist Party resurgence? The growth must be based on the 2011

rather than the 2015. The easiest way to grow in the 16 is to retain

them. Strangford is a big challenge. It was very, very tight the last

time between David McNarry and Joe Boyle. The last time when the Sinn

Fein candidate went out, Joe Boyle got a huge lift. But that was where

he basically stuck. There were no who transfers coming the SDLP's way.

And incrementally as more candidates went out, David McNarry grew his

vote and just made it. In fairness to Joe, on at least three occasions

standing for the Assembly elections, he has come close. He will hit the

crossbar 30 or 40 votes short. I'm sure he will be close to do it this

time. What are you hearing about the other

counts? The other individuals? The other well-knowns in the hunt for a

seat? Is it fairly positive? Do you know, Mark, I was on my way to the

car to listen to radio Ulster when I was nabbed by your people to come in

to do this interview, so you will know better than I do! I don't know

if any of us know the picture. You have a precious envelope that you

and I discussed on television. You wrote down the number of seats you

believed that the party would get at the election. You posted it to

yourself, it is sealed. You promised us to join us and open up the

envelope at some stage, are you still up for that? I am yes. But I

may have been, I was ambitious! OK. Well, the first omission of the day.

Is that going to be tonight, Mike, or tomorrow? I think tomorrow.

OK. Consider yourself booked! I'm staying here for the rest of the

count here today. As soon as the result is declared here tomorrow I

will come up to the BBC as long as the rugby is not on.

Well, we are here from 10. 30am until 1.00pm. You have a seat

booked. We will not miss it for all the tea in Khan! Mike Nesbitt

confirming he will open that envelope on BBC tomorrow. Let's here

from Lisa McAlister -- all the tea in China! Gerry Carroll is with me,

8299 votes. Topping the poll in West Belfast. Was it a surprise? We knew

we would take a seat. Doing well. But the 8,000 votes is a great vote.

I would like to thank everybody in West Belfast who came out to vote

for us. To thank everybody that helped to spread the word and up us

canvass. It is testament to all of the hard work we have done in the

last three years. Standing in five election, three elections and two

years, the vote has gone up each time it is a testament to the hard

work done on the ground. What message do you think that the

voters are sending to Sinn Fein, they were the stronghold for

decades? The message is that they are fed up with the status quo with

the society, with the way that things are going. Fed up with the

poverty. The highest levels here. And the corporations and the tax

cuts, the handouts, receiving handouts where people are getting

cuts. People are losing jobs, benefits slashed. That. And those in

West Belfast looking for an alternative it is a great vote a

fantastic vote it is global phenomena. We are seeing the rise of

Bernie Saunders in America. The radical left in socialist politics.

Thank you very much for talking with us. Congratulations again. We can

hand to Julian O'Neill who has not so much of a success story there.

That's right. One of the first big casualties of

this election, independent Unionist John McAllister who began life as an

Ulster Unionist Party, MLA career now over as an independent Unionist,

what went wrong, John? Well, I suppose in an election not enough

people voted! Was it the party machine or the lack of it in your

case? The lack of party machine. Competing with other big party

machines. That is a problem, getting the message out there. But for me, I

have been an MLA for two terms for nine years. We have over the nine

years had the privilege of helping thousands of constituents with all

kinds of problems. I have had two private members' bills passed. I am

proud of the campaign team that helped to work. I would like to

thank everyone that voted and supported us.

You you leave in opposition, you are not going to a part of Stormont

going forward. Will the place be poorer for independent, lone voices

to be heard in the chamber? I think we need that. People like Gerry

McCann being elected and if the Greens come back. That is important.

Even though I have a legislation through, we look set on how long we

will be to starting again. Our ministers are doing great work but

we knee robust opposition to challenge, scrutinise and provide

the alternative for the voters. You will be able to go back to the

farm, the day job, some may say the real job? Some may say. But it is a

pity that farming is not in great shape either. Milk is bad, beef is

bad, grain prices are bad. But I'm looking forward this year so far

between a very busy Assembly term and election campaign, I am looking

forward to having some time with family and the kids. That is

important. Important to go back to that. But thank you again to

everyone who supported. And everyone who has supported me in the past

nine years. So thank you very much for joining

us. No-one yet making the first quota.

A very difficult day for John McAllister. Let's hear from Alex and

Kathy, Alex, you know John McAllister well and Mike Nesbitt. So

far as far as he is concerned a good day in Strangford.

Very good. John, I have known for many years. A great guy. I think

that the opposition billed one of the most important decisions in the

last 20 years. A big loss. D'you deep down he knew it would require a

miracle. Mike Nesbitt will be happy. Party leader, topping the poll.

The problem is, it is indicated by the response to your envelope

question, all of the evidence coming through, and I have been in contact

with the UUP P, they are admitting privately that they are

underperforming. To 11 was the worst ever election result in terms of the

Assembly. At the minute they are pushing 1. 5%. If they are not

getting the votes he will be hard pushed to come back.

So, for example we have heard that Rodney McKeown is struggling in

South Belfast. You can hear why Mike is saying he will wring in the

envelope but saying he was overall ambitious. If the number in the

envelope is in the '20s, it is not looking like tallying with reality?

Maybe. But what he didn't say in 2011, the Ulster Unionist party is

the most transfer friendly party of all of the main parties. We are in

for the long hall. Until late tomorrow before we have the full

results. We tend to be getting animated about 38, 40, so the

majority of people are elected with transfers and the UUP P gets most

transfers from other parties and gives most transfers to other

parties. That is important. A quick caveat. That rule works if

you are in the 7, 8, 9th position. The U Ulster Unionist Party UP are

down. They may not survive. And how do you think it is shaping

up? It is early. I was interested in the Gerry

Carroll whopping vote. He was so far ahead of the nearest rival stere

Sinn Fein had been trying to set that up. There was a bit of

generalised Gerry Adams doing the people need to make clear their

attitude to violence. He was not pointing at Gerry Carroll, he could

not. That was at independent candidates in general a warning that

people are getting votes from dissidents. One of the things that

Gerry Carroll probably has done. But he has a left-wing vote. That is

significant for Sinn Fein who have messed up so badly in West Belfast.

That is echoed in Foyle. Eamon McCann and Anne McClusky have done

well. There is a fame on the left in terms of the republicanism.

I have heard that Arlene Foster, no surprise, has been surprised. I'm

assuming she topped the poll. I'm not sure but I know she held on to

her seat where she has topped the poll. Not surprised at that. There

is Brian working on a cartoon of Arlene. She is looking quite angry

in that. In the style of Carson, of course! If you are wondering what is

happening with the hand there. It is a default expression. Looking

angry. Not being an angry motorist.

Lots of numbers in for Mark and Nicholas to get their teeth into.

I hope she likes that cartoon, I know from experience when previous

cartoonists came up with caricatures she didn't like, she let them know

about it. Colum Eastwood was saying that Foyle was too early to call.

Shall we try to give him a run for his money? This has been the big

battle between the two nationalist parties. We have the vote share on

the first preference votes. On the face of it, you might think SDLP

will be very happy, they have the biggest share at 30%. Sinn Fein,

Martin McGuinness arriving back home, quite a narrow lead? Very

narrow, both sitting on about 30%. Eamon McCann, and a number of

independents, including Anne McCloskey. Let's look at the change.

You can see that both of the Nationalists are down about 5%. It's

a very interesting. I said earlier that turnout appears to be down

generally in nationalist areas. It looks like the vote is down for

nationalist parties and we are seeing the SDLP in various places.

Even if they don't get elected, where do the votes go to? Martin

McGuinness, very narrowly topping the poll over Colum Eastwood. Who

else would you call, apart from the top two? The DUP are certain Gary

Middelton, enough to put them ahead. I think the SDLP will lose one of

their seats. They go into this with three. Gerard Diver has nowhere near

enough to be elected. They will lose one of their seats to Eamon McCann

or Anne McCloskey. I would have thought Eamon McCann, 700 votes

ahead, I would be surprised if that gap closes. For Sinn Fein, they will

get two in. McLauchlan will be eliminated and her votes will be

sufficient to elect Raymond McCartney. To some extent, it has

paid off, they have taken the SDLP down by one, but they have not made

a game, Martin McGuinness has potentially taken a place. You think

Gerard Diver unlikely to survive? Absolutely. Another key battle

ground has been in south Belfast, a lot of new faces in the field. The

DUP, they held their own with their two new faces, Emma Little Pengelly

and Christopher Stortford. They only had one MLA last time. Let's have a

look at the change in south Belfast, before we look at the personalities.

The DUP actually dropped a percentage on last time. But the

SDLP actually dropping more? It is a vote against established parties to

a certain extent. This is a seat that the SDLP holds at Westminster,

to get only 20% in a seat you have at Westminster, a rocky result. The

story in this election, a big increase in the Green vote. Clare

Bailey, in fifth position, quite possibly getting a seat, one would

imagine some of Anna Lo's vote? I think that is right. The DUP have

balanced well between their candidates. Even though they took a

decrease in the seat, they have delivered two seats, a gain for the

DUP? I'd call it a gain for the Ulster Unionists and a gain for the

Green Party. Fearghal McKinney a high-profile casualties, if he

doesn't survive. Rodney McCune was trying to inherit the seat? Poor

Rodney, his second unsuccessful attempt. Ruth Patterson off the

scale, we thought she might do damage to the DUP, she hasn't. Some

transfer votes have been distributed here. This is the business towards

climbing towards it. She has one transfer on that stage. We still

think that Fearghal McKinney and Rodney McCune losing out. That is

the first breakdown. There is a lot to be talked about as the accounts

go on. The transfer of votes is coming in, but we think it is bad

news for the SDLP in Foyle in South Belfast.

Let's hear from Banbridge Leisure Centre. Dolores Kelly, former deputy

leader of the SDLP. Could be in a bit of a fight for her seat, we

here? Yes, that is right. Dolores said she was in a scrap for her

seat, so how much of a scrap are you in? We will know shortly when the

quota is finalised and the first preference votes are out. I need to

keep ahead of some of the candidates to stay in the race, at least I am

transfer friendly. The transfer got me over the line last time, on this

occasion I have transfers coming in right across the political spectrum.

I think we will be in it to the end. You have been in this position

before, held by 340 seats last time. Not an unusual situation to find

yourself in? But it doesn't make it an enjoyable one. Very difficult. We

put a lot of work in, we had a good reception on the doorstep. One of

the biggest difficulties is turnout. This comes down to tiny margins, as

you have described. The fact there is another candidate also called

Kelly that was for the campaign Cannabis is Safer than Alcohol, do

you think there might be some candidate confusion that might work

against you? I am hoping in terms of transfers, it will rectify itself.

But I do think there might have been a slight confusion. It will be

interesting to see what the first preferences are for that candidate

and see where that comes in. My team are telling me I do have number twos

off that, part of it might be intentional transfer, some might be

people rectify the mistake on the ballot paper. You were angry when I

spoke to you earlier, about the number of tally people in from Sinn

Fein. Explain what the issue was that you have and whether it has

been addressed? There are 17 candidates on the ballot paper and

we were all advised by the electoral office we could have three count

agents. Our election agent, a family member and ourselves. That brought

it up to six people per candidate. All of those have that with the

exception of Sinn Fein. They had 11 count agents each, plus the other

two. They have overwhelmed the town centre. I think it is unfair.

Candidates use it for intelligence, to give an idea of the tally.

Dolores Kelly, thank you. That issue has already been raised with the

electoral office. Thank you very much indeed. Jim Wells, now, joining

me from his count in South Down. You are in there, in third position,

with 5033 first preferences. You are comfortable you will hold onto the

seat? Well, 2000 votes up on the last election, not only with the

size of my vote, that the huge gap between me and the next Unionists.

The DUP have been established as, by far, the strongest Unionist party in

South Down. Can I ask in all seriousness of you would shed a tear

for John McCallister? You have been a constituency colleague, a

different brand of unionism, but it is tough for him today he has been

eliminated? It is. I get on extremely well with John. He's an

easy person to like. His campaign was toxic because he supported gay

marriage and abortion, issues that went down very badly with the

electorate in South Down. Dora Altidore told me well they liked

John and thought he was very able, they could not handle his views on

those issues. Do you think there will be a seat? -- door after door.

Is there a second Unionist seat this time around? There definitely is.

There are almost 13,000 Unionist votes on the table, well over two

quarters. The Unionists have used their brains. The transfer rate

looks like 90%, the highest recorded in Northern Ireland history. That

should carry Harry McCain very easily. I am confident we have

retained the Unionist seats, but with the DUP the strongest? No seat

for the TUV? No, that shocked me, he ran the most extensive and expensive

campaign I have ever seen. Had a huge number of workers, fantastic

literature and posters, but his vote has not gone up since the last

election. That has shocked me and many people in South Down, and also

Henry's team. Good to talk to you, we will presumably find out when the

first number of seats are allocated in due course. You are certainly in

a good position at the moment. Thank you very much indeed. We are here in

Titanic in Belfast. Caroline Kean, you are an accountant, what would

you say to the politicians as they go into the new mandate? Well, for

the next five years, I would like to see quite a bit of change. I would

like to think we would see more of the same, lots of things are going

in our favour. We have the corporation tax cut, and I would

like to see that to be a big focus and an opportunity for maybe a

corporate tax task force are being created to maximise the

opportunities. I think the key thing is to see parties work together in

tandem, rather than the silo approach we might have seen in the

past, making the economy and business the real central focus for

government going forward. We have heard them talking about health and

education, the cuts in budgets. We have heard about the ?1 billion

pledged for health, but we don't know to what detriment of other

departments are going to suffer. We would like to sit down and see in

terms of how the budget is going to be carved out, I can't help but

think we have the economy and business, if we got that right, so

much more would follow on from that. What you think they are doing wrong?

What could they have done differently? In terms of business

support, as we know in Northern Ireland, there is a big dependence

on the public sector. I think to try and grow the public sector, looking

for smaller businesses, enable them to grow and get access to funding,

particularly around exports. We know it is a small market, companies need

to be exporting. I think it is breaking down some of the barriers

and obstacles to help companies. Investment has a big role to play on

that. From an accountancy point of view, you issued a statement

recently criticising how money has been handled? Yes, I believe there

is a lack of long-term financial planning in the public sector. The

evidence is that where there is a lot of discussion about fiscal

deficit in Northern Ireland, nobody seems to have a handle on that. With

corporation tax, exactly what is that going to cost? The Institute

firmly believes that there needs to be an improvement in the long-term

financial planning, same as you would in any business. You would

look up the balance sheet, look at what you own and make forward

planning decisions based on that. It's very difficult for governments

to form a plan because of the nature of only having a certain number of

years to be in government, and they can't take the next term for

granted. How do we compare to other institutions? I suppose the problem

here is that the Finance committee income we get allocated primarily

through the block grant, what that means is that you have an

administration here that is really managing a budget, rather than

having any hand on any fiscal levers. OK, it is getting

corporation tax devolved, but we seek a case for a further devolution

settlement, similar to Scotland, where the Assembly could raise 50%

or 60% of revenues through air passenger duty, income tax and other

taxes. That way, you build more accountability locally. The Assembly

would be genuinely accountable to the electorate for not only the

revenue it raises, but what it spends. Coupled with that, that is

why we are stressing the need for longer term planning, really. That

would need to be in place, they would need to have some kind of

fiscal framework to enable that power and to manage it responsibly.

A familiar face to those in the business community, you are retired

now, but what was your key issue? Was it the skill shortage? Is that

where we fall down? I think so, there was a whole ecosystem in

politics. It is all very well cutting corporation tax and saying

it is the panacea for our problems. For economic development to happen,

you have to have the skills and talent for companies to come in. For

that you need a good education system, particularly higher and

further education, then if you move back into the education system, we

have a lot of things wrong with education here. It is very good at

one end of the scale, but we have chronic underachievement at the

other end of this scale. We need to address that as an important part of

it. We are moving into a new dispensation where we have a

Department for the economy, which I am very happy to see, but what we

need to do is to see all politicians moving in a more collegiate way,

where they work with each other. Department of the economy working

with the Department for Education, and we don't get the silo that were

used to have, and, dare I mention it, contention between certain

departments. I think that needs to go. I'm very keen to see how the

plan for new government pans out. Food for thought for the

politicians. My panel has been replenished. I am

pleased to say. Joined by Martina Anderson of Sinn Fein.

Clare Hannah from the SDLP, and Nigel Dodds, the campaign director,

a director of elections for the DUP. A tremendous responsibility on your

shoulders today? Yes, proud to be the director of elections for the

DUP. And Lord MP, form do you have a

title? I am chairman of the party. You watched Mike Nesbitt. Let's talk

about him. Discussing the envelope, saying he might have been

overambitious in the number he wrote in the secret envelope that he

posted to himself and is going to open on the output either tonight or

tomorrow. That will be embarrassing? I don't know what he has put in it.

He clearly knows, he is beginning to play down people's expectations?

Maybe he posted more than one. Oh, my goodness. I thought I was

cynical for thinking that! A good opening question for tomorrow? I'm

pretty sure he posted one. Are you sure? Absolutely sure.

Right, OK. That is interesting. Let's rewind the last 30 seconds.

So, joking apart. A bit of a struggle in some of the counts? As

you know elections are determined largely by what happened in the

large seats. You must be in with a shout. We had two separate elections

to fight to recover the seats we had lost through defections. Which of

course doesn't count as come par outers as what you are elected the

last time is what you are judged with this time. That is fine. But

the point is to show growth over that. Two separate things to

achieve. You were hoping for a bounce in

South Antrim. It is not looking like you have the bounce. Of the three

candidates, one candidate is in a third position. No a strong

position? Adrian was only in office for nine months. I must say I

thought he proved to be a very effective MLA. But we are not

throwing in any of the seats it is too early. These things go right

down to the end. There are lots of votes to be transferred. We are

still hopeful. OK, Clare Hannah, you are the only candidate at the table.

I am double checking, in case somebody changed seats. But looking

at south Belfast, you are in second spot, 4,516, and the others 5007.

You must be quietly confident you would be successful? I am not there

yet but yes, on the numbers it looks likely I will be elected.

What about your running mate, Feargal McKinney? We don't know yet.

Bearing in mind we have always been tight. Always taking the last seat.

Winning it with as few as 13 votes over the last four or five

elections. So it has been tight. In the 2011 election, the second

candidate was written off at this point. So not gone yet but it is

competitive. 18 candidates, and there were always 10 strongly in the

hunt for the six seats. Overall, as far as the SDLP, talking

to Collum Eastwood a short time ago, he was crowing about the performance

of the party in Foyle, where the SDLP has outpolled Sinn Fein. He was

happy? I'm sure he was not crowing. He is entitled to be pleased.

It is not a pejorative term. We were told that they would smash

the SDLP in our heartland. And while the SDLP third seat is not

guaranteed, the leader of Sinn Fein did try to take the fight to the

back yard and Collum Eastwood has held off. He is entitled to be

pleased. He did beat him in a head to head.

Let's hear from Martina Anderson. You won the beauty contest but maybe

didn't win what counts, which is the overall party standing? I think we

did win counts. Martin McGuinness went to Derry, not to try to take on

the SDLP, nothing could be further than the truth.

What for then? Martin McGuinness has been working two constituencies. He

went from one, took is from Ground Zero to build it up to what it is

now. Martin McGuinness wanted to go in as someone at the heart of

government to go back to his own place. He said yesterday, there

would be him going home at 10.00pm and there would be people waiting

for him to talk about issues. Is that because the two MLAs could

not do the job? Not at all! It is because Martin McGuinness is at the

art of government. He is a joint First Minister. People took the

opportunity as he was in the constituency, obviously, to talk to

him about the issues. That Martin McGuinness did talk to them.

If it was an attempt to take out the SDLP it has not worked as the SDLP

has outpolled Sinn Fein. At no time did Sinn Fein say that was Martin

McGuinness's intention. If not, why did he go back? He

wanted to go home. For an easier ride? He wanted a

focus on Derry, to take it to the place where he took... Was it a

mistake to go to Ulster? No. Of course. It was not a mistake. He

went into mid-Ulster. At that time we had only a few counts. Look at

what we have now. Three people in on the first count, today.

In mid-Ulster? Yes. Martin McGuinness said that was not

where Mid Ulster was. I believe that Martin McGuinness will bring the

same energy and enthusiasm to Derry. What if there is not a return to

Stormont because of Martin McGuinness's return to the home

city? That is possible. You will probably end up with two. Not go to

three. Therefore Martin McGuinness has come in and knocked out one of

his own men. That was a discussion we had. We didn't go into this with

our eyes closed. We went into it as a possibility but

we went in it to win. And if you didn't win... Of course.

It was anything but a master stroke. We were prepared to take the risk to

bring Martin back to Derry to deliver for the people of Derry.

Nigel Dodds, let's talk about your party and the performances.

A few fairly successful, I mean, David Hilditch was the first one. It

looks like you could be good for three. People talking about David

Hilditch as being the one that could lose out but he topped the poll, the

first MLA return. Joanne Bunting has done well. You could be good for

two? Obviously I have been at the Titanic Exhibition Centre this

morning, looking at my own seat of north Belfast where the three DUP

candidates have come in within 500 votes, all of them over 4,000 votes.

The Ulster Unionist has halved. The other parties have gone becomewards.

I think it is significant that we will get the three elected there

easily. East Belfast is looking well. Joanne Bunting, the first time

out to top the poll in East Belfast. The Alliance Party have been pushed

back considerably. South Belfast is also looking good. The Ulster

Unionist candidate seems to have done badly there. I'm not across all

of the detail but it is looking as if we are in with a very good chance

of two in south Belfast. In West Belfast, even the political

opponents are beginning to say there is a chance of Frank McCubery taking

a seat there. The SDLP have performed badly in that seat. This

is early days. A long way to go. But encouraged by the performances in

the first preference count. And Arlene for First Minister? That

is in the hands of the people. You made a play about that in the

campaign? Obviously in terms of the last time out. And Nicholas Whyte

made the point clear. The number of times and other experts to get 38

the last time was a phenomenon alachievement, picking up seats in

the last-minute, the last counts that broke our way. To get anywhere

near that we would be doing well. But certainly people were targeting

East Antrim, north Belfast, East Belfast, saying we would lose seats,

Strangford, the rest of it. At the minute it is looking solid. I am so

thankful to the people who rewarded the Democratic Unionist Party

candidates. I want to congratulate them for fighting an invigorating

campaign. I am hearing that the first count in

West Tyrone is going to a re-count before a declaration is made. That

is interesting. That is why this kind of election can take such a

very long time. And why the 5th and the 6th seats can be a long time.

It is encouraging that we have the first counts reasonably quickly.

How much pressure is under Arlene Foster as the party leader? As we

have discussed before the campaign was hung on her shoulders. That was

either a master stroke or a mistake, we don't know.

Obviously the election outcome will determine that. I don't think that

Arlene is under pressure. Leading from the front. She has been visible

since becoming the First Minister. She is clearly someone who is

popular amongst the population at large. Not just Unionists but across

the board. She has a positive vision for Northern Ireland. And from her

own voting, I am hering that the candidates are in with a first count

on a massive vote, which is a tremendous testament to her

popularity in the country. I looked at Scotland and Nicola

Sturgeon, it was all about her becoming the First Minister, Carwyn

Jones, all of that. When you have someone leading the country, the

biggest party, someone putting forward a positive vision, it is

natural that people respond. People want to see Arlene do well. I think

we are being rewarded for that. Do you think you will get the two at

Fermanagh South Tyrone. But just one at the moment.

Then Michelle guild hue. You will get the two in but you will have to

wait a moment or two. They are slightly below at this

point. I want to bring in Kathy for a quick word. A quick thought on

what you heard. Picking up on Nigel's point about

Arlene for the First Minister. The assembly have looked at the

terminology around the appointment of the First Minister and the first

deputy, the titles, this is not something that will go away as an

issue. We may see the term move to joint First Minister. So it could

back fire. It is in the legislation. The law. It would require

Westminster legislation. But the review committee is in place to

review things like that occurring in the area. We implemented the fresh

start legislation. It was part of the agreement. Some took a full role

in implementing the fresh start. Some want to claim credit for the

parts of it that are not so difficult. But we have had the

negotiation. I am at Westminster a bit. I talk with the government

whips, to many others, there is no prospect of Northern Ireland

legislation on this issue coming forward.

There is no circumstances which the DUP would agree to a change in it.

It was introduced by Westminster edge layings as it was not in the

original 1998 act voted in the agreement that people voted for in

1998. The system for identifying the deputy and First Minister has

changed since 2006. It was deliberately changed. It gives a

huge advantage to the Sinn Fein and the DUP. OK, we will maybe get a

chance to come back to this. There is so much other interesting things

happening. We will bounce around with that. It is early days but the

Stormont benches are slowly becoming populated.

We are built a virtual Assembly chamber inside the BBC studio.

Stormont as you have never or seen or heard it before. It is all very

quiet. In the past hour, as we know, this chamber has been slowly

populated. Who is leading at the moment? The DUP. There they come.

Six MLAs elected. We know Arlene Foster led almost a presidential

campaign. She has six MLAs in including herself. And what the DUP

was to fill that entire bench down to about there. 38 the last time

under Peter Robinson. Remember him. They want as many this time. And as

Mark Carruthers has said, it is early days. To the other side of the

chamber, Sinn Fein. Just behind the DUP with four MLAs. But early days.

We will have to see if they do what they want to do at the minimum to

fill the bench to get up to 30 seats to give them that right of veto.

What about the SDLP? Well, Patsy McGlone is there. Looking lonely

with only one SDLP MLA as we speak. What about the Ulster Unionist?

There is Mike Nesbitt. He is there as we have never seen him before.

From Strangford. One Ulster Unionist. They got 16 the last time

a lot of work to do to fill the benches. The Alliance Party got

eight the last time. One in so far, night-timow lock is back. But will

she have company? Yes, she will. People Before Profit will be there

in the form of Gerry Carroll from West Belfast. So in the scores on

the doors up there. We can see some sort of a pattern is emerging. It is

pretty much what we expected. But it is early days. It was the week of

the Belfast marathon. Tonight is very much a marathon. Not a sprint.

We like a nice marathon. Look at this artwork, the artist is with me.

Brian John Spencer, you make a career out of this, capturing those

moments of the politicians. We have seen this picture already, but talk

us through what you are thinking and how you were inspired? It started

with this, the whole campaign, the DUP has been the Arlene show. All

eyes on her. I did a simple depiction of her, quite often the

ideas come as you do it. I have left blank here, for something witty. It

didn't come. It dawned on me, she is a real defender of the union, so

this came. I think the phrase I have heard, the Norn Iron Lady. A

consummate professional, but really caustic as well, like Thatcher, the

iron Lady, the Norn Iron Lady. Are you going to get it to her, or is it

for your personal collection? The whole thing about being a political

cartoonist is you are meant to provoke the ire of the

establishment. At some of them come after me and say, isn't that

wonderful, isn't that great? Mark Devenport was saying she is not

behind the door about telling a cartoonist she doesn't like their

work. Have you had that experience? Well, everybody knows Ian Knox, and

he has been around for decades. He would always be told off by her, she

was very caustic, because of her big years. She doesn't have big years,

but he draws her with them for some reason. I haven't had a telling off

yet. The whole idea of a cartoonist account of exaggerated. Paul McLean,

you are with us, you are a bookie, give us a flavour of what people

were putting on? The betting on the political action has been more on

the fifth and sixth seats, the independents. The big names are so

short, nobody is interested in betting, there is no value. We have

seen a lot of interest in Foyle for a couple of candidates, Maurice

Devenney, took a lot of money for Anne McCloskey, it seems to be that

customers are interested more in the 20-1 chances that might get the

fifth or sixth seat, rather than the 1-4 big names. You were mentioning

Arlene, the man in the street is not interested in that. It is the big

prices for the independents. We have taken a number of big bets. We took

?1000 on Paula Bradshaw to win his seat, ?1000 on Robin Swann to regain

his seat. Did he but money on himself? I haven't looked at the

CCTV! There will only win ?200 or ?300, maybe they say it has a way of

getting a night away, or a nice coat courtesy of the candidate. Is it a

big night? Much bigger than the national election last year, because

of first past the post, there were so many shoe ins and people knew

they were going to win seats. Because they have five or six seats,

there is a lot more interest. People think, we might have a chance of

getting in there. I would say from this election, the general election

last year, political betting is probably up by 30% or 40%. Thanks

for joining us, Brian, you are staying with us into the evening. We

will see a lot more from you later. For now, Mark Devenport is going to

update us on the figures. I am not a betting man, neither is

Nicholas, that would be unfair! Privileged information. We try to

give people a few tips, but it is too late, right now. Let's go to

Fermanagh, South Tyrone, as the bookmaker was saying, there was no

money to be won on predicting that Arlene Foster would top the poll.

She had a 77.5% turnout. Over 8001st choice votes, pretty impressive for

an election like this. Turnout across Fermanagh is down from last

time. Maybe that shows if the DUP vote held up, in nationalist areas

it was not holding up so well? Part of the pattern we have seen, the

vote down in the West and nationalist seats. Sinn Fein topping

the poll with 40%. Sinn Fein held their own. They have four

candidates? It looked like a risky strategy, but the SDLP vote has

fallen significantly and they are out of the picture. They got that

result to the closest result in the last election. If you were looking

at the Westminster election, you would have got that wrong. Instead,

the swingometer shows... I will hold my hand up, I got this wrong. I

thought they could capitalise on their games in Southampton and

Fermanagh. Their well-known name, Tom Elliott, is on the green benches

in the Commons and not in the fight. Arlene Foster has capitalised. Lagan

Valley, a 47% share. The DUP got four seats, they did very well last

time. Let's look at how things have changed. A big loss from the DUP? It

is, but they balanced their candidates extremely well. The

Ulster Unionists are fighting with me on Twitter about this at the

moment, but I think the DUP have got a good chance. The Unionists need to

regain the Misty Kyd won by Basil McCrea. The Alliance having a tricky

time, but it looks like Trevor Lunn will hang on? That is my sense,

there is not a nationalist sit there, and therefore there will be

nationalist transfers. Robbie Butler likely to take Basil McCrea's seat.

There are optimists around a score, but I am not one of them. Those are

the constituencies there, for now. Reg Empey is with me, we are going

to talk about some of the constituencies and the trends that

are emerging. I was looking at East Londonderry, which is fascinating.

We have another high profile independent in Claire Sugden, who

took over from David McNarry, originally an Ulster Unionist. She

is in a pretty good position. It's not particularly good for the SDLP

candidate, Gerry Mullan, in eighth position at the moment. It is

possible he might not hold onto that seat? I am in the bubble, I have

just come from my own account and cannot get onto your Wi-Fi. It will

be a long day and long night. Nowhere near Hardy last seats

settled, I am sure there will be plenty of transfers. The SDLP was on

the front foot, if it was a fresh start for your party, and a new

leader, you would be in there scrapping over the seat? He has been

the leader for less than six months coming he made it clear that Rome

was not built in a day. Three quarters of the candidates were like

me, first-time Assembly candidates. We have made it clear it will take

time to rebuild, and we have time. Gerry Mullan is an old hand, he has

been around a long time. He is a well-known counsellor? It is not a

cult of youth, but we are rebuilding. If you look up the team

on its way, which will hopefully include Gerry Mullan, we have the

time to rebuild it. We know there is dissatisfaction in politics. At the

moment, some people are not see the SDLP as the alternative. I know from

knocking on doors that people are interested in what he has to say,

and how he says it, but they have not known him well enough for that

to have fully got into their consciousness. We will see there is

independence getting in strongly, and smaller parties. That is

something that is national. Nigel Dodds, you are responsible for the

campaign that was sold on Arlene Foster. East Londonderry, you are

looking pretty good for three seats. You will pretty much hold onto your

three seats. Looking at the initial numbers, as far as East Londonderry

is concerned, you will tell me that is a positive outcome. What you

think people who voted number one for the DUP were voting for? To keep

Martin McGuinness out of the First Minister's job, or voting in the

knowledge, in the sure and certain knowledge, that the DUP is going to

be back in government with Sinn Fein in a fortnight? In terms of East

Londonderry, to keep three unionist seats in these constituencies is a

phenomenal achievement. Especially ensuring that the vote is balanced

correctly between candidates. I want to congratulate the East Londonderry

team, along with the other teams that have done such a phenomenal job

at places like South Antrim and elsewhere. In terms of what people

were voting for, we were out talking to people a lot after Arlene became

First Minister. Me and her went around the country, we have a lot of

meetings and discussed with people what were the concerns. It was clear

that things like education, health, infrastructure, and... That is what

Sinn Fein talked about as well, you both want ?1 billion for health and

you want 50,000 jobs? I am not saying what we talk about is

exclusive to us. But this is what people were talking about and we

reflected that in an early publication of our plan for Northern

Ireland. We went out there very, very early to say that we intended

to be back in government, we wanted to lead that government, we wanted

as many executive seats as possible around the table. People were

pleading with us to take the economy brief, the education and agriculture

brief. People were saying they wanted the DUP to be there, with the

leadership of the executive, because we have proved we can deliver for

people. That has now been reflected in the votes that are being cast by

people across Northern Ireland. Can you see the confusion? In the one

hand, you paint Sinn Fein as the bogeyman, Martin McGuinness in

particular. You pay date scenario where it would be bad for Northern

Ireland if Martin McGuinness was First Minister. On the other hand,

you are clearly working hand in glove with Sinn Fein in government.

You have made no secret that and you have said he will do it again. The

whole thing about Arlene for First Minister was a sham fight? No, it

wasn't. It is important who is the leader of Northern Ireland. Well,

you say that, nobody seems to think that. People make the decision. With

the resources that the BBC and the experts you employ, there will be a

bit of research, as we have done, to ensure that the people's views are

being reflected and that you will understand what people are voting

for. We are clear with what they are voting for. People are voting

positively for the DUP. It is a phenomenal achievement. In the

knowledge you will be in partnership with Sinn Fein?

David Cameron was in government with the Lib Dems, a lot of people said

he would be in government with them afterwards. He fought a campaign on

his own grounds. He went after the Lib Dems ruthlessly, and annihilated

them in some places. He was quite open about going back into a

coalition. We are saying that we want a definite vision for Northern

Ireland, taking Northern Ireland forward as part of the United

Kingdom. We are going to hear a lot less about Martin McGuinness being

to bogeyman from now on, is that the point? Let me finish the point. We

recognise there is no majority will government in Northern Ireland. We

will work with others, but we have a very different vision for Northern

Ireland going forward as part of the United Kingdom compared to Sinn

Fein. Do you think the whole thing was a sham fight? All about getting

the vote out? When we were around the doors, people were looking for a

partnership to be on display. You are not knocking on the same doors?

Of course, that goes without saying. The world and its mother knows,

Nigel, Arlene, all of you here, the thousands of people listening to

this, that the office means it is equal power, equal responsibility,

and Arlene Foster cannot make a decision without getting approval of

Martin McGuinness. That is the reality. It is symbolic... She says

symbol as matters? She says symbol matters. We are saying if it ends up

today, and it is still up in the air, reaching at the hand of

friendship, we have said we will put on display the joint three of that

office and we will have the term joint First Minister. Let's not

forget what was said earlier at the last round of discussion. There will

be a review of this, and a review of the ministerial code, of Irish

language. In terms of the title of office will be under review.

I have held the office of First Minister along are Sheamus McMallon.

Legally it is a totally equal position. You can't send a letter

from the department without both ministers signing the letter and the

mistake was made in 2006 when the government, following St Andrew's

did a side deal behind everybody's back to do this. It has turned the

thing into a fight over a symbolic issue that has no relevance to the

day to day running of government. I've been there. I was the only

person at this table in that office. I may remind you I was the junior

minister. Still in the office. But I can tell you that is the way

it works. If anybody is trying to tell you of a legal or other... We

have to move on. Does it matter a jot now that the elections are upon

us? That is the point? ALL SPEAK AT ONCE

You are getting excuses in there. That is all that it is.

You have to move on and deliver. To play the game according to the rules

in place at this. Those are the rules. Bear with me. I have to Koch

up with the count centres, where interesting things are happening.

Julian Fowler is in West Tyrone. They have broken up all of the

bundles to start counting again. A full re-count of the first

preference votes is under way. We are told that there are 36 ballot

papers unaccounted for. So they are going through them all again to find

them. So some way off a vote. In Fermanagh South Tyrone, Arlene

Foster elected, her excess is being redistributed. Her running mate also

to cross the line fairly shortly. In Ballymena we have had the first

reference results for the North Antrim county. Tight. Four

candidates pulling about 150 votes of each other pull through. The DUP

the highest number of first preference votes. Followed by Jim

alster of the TUV. And then the other two. Those four expected to

push on. An interesting battle for the last two seats. Robin Swan, a

setting MLA. And David McIlveen. All sitting between 3,000 and 3,500

votes. And Katherine Johnson has been eliminated with over 240 votes.

Her votes are being redistributed along with the candidate from the

Conservatives. We should get the next round in pretty soon.

I'm in Bangor. So far three elected. An Ulster

Unionist and a DUP elected in Strangford and a DUP in north down.

The only excitement that may transpire is that we have three

eliminations. Sinn Fein, an independent and a Conservative. They

are watching carefully to see if Joe boil could become the first

nationalist MLA in the area. He tells me he has been trying for 15

years. Each time coming closer to the wire. He will not get a quota in

his own right but he may be the last man standing and hope to get in that

way. In North Down, Alex eastan. He topped the poll massively. Higher

than last year when he topped the poll. He is emotional. It will be

the status quo. As we are expecting three DUP, one Alliance and Steven a

Agnew who polled well who was thought to be vulnerable. But it

looks as though he is doing very well.

No declaration here in Banbridge. The information is based on tallies.

But we think it will be reflected when we get the declaration. In

Newry and Armagh. It is said that William Irwin has topped the poll.

Danny Kennedy has topped the poll, he has a running meat. And these are

based on Sinn Fein tallies, Megan fearan and Cathal O'Hoisin are over

the line. And hopefully over the line. Connor Murphy is under, so the

likelihood is that Sinn Fein will retain the three seats that they

were after. And that is in Newry Armagh. Then the two SDLP

candidates? As I was saying earlier, it looks as if Justin McNulty may be

ahead in that particular race. Connor, thank you very much.

Let's have a look at some of our graphics.

They will illustrate the latest facts and figures for you. The state

of the parties here. Let's see if we can any mate it

tonne the big screen. My guests can take a look and chip

in comments. The DUP with six... Let's look at Strangford... Mike

Nesbitt. Michelle McIlveen there. Two out of six seats there.

The turn out over 50%. There is the share in Strangford.

The DUP is strong. This is the change on 2011. Let's

move on to South Antrim. Where the Ulster Unionist were on the hunt of

the bounce. Paul Girvan is home. This is the

share in South Antrim. This is the change.

That is where we stand at the moment. Let's talk to my guests here

at the moment. We are hearing that David Ford is safe. Was that 7th? We

were hearing he was 7th. I want to pick up on that. We don't have

anyone from the Alliance Party. We were talking about that, Reg. Saying

that David Ford in South Antrim has had a disappointing performance?

3119 sitting in 7th place? I am surprised. He has been the Justice

Minister for five years. He has had the second seat in the executive to

work with. He is never off the television,

never off the radio. I would have expected him to anybody a stronger

position. But it is interesting that eve finance you move next door into

Lagan Valley, they don't seem to have done so well there. Eve no-one

East Belfast, they have two quotas, despite the fact that the main

objective that Ford had admitted was to take the seat vacated by Peter

Robinson that is not going to happen.

Mid Ulster, three Sinn Fein and Patsy McGlone. What is happening

with the DUP in Mid Ulster, Nigel Dodds? Why two candidates running

where there is only one seat? That is a bad example of party

management? Well, let me put it in context. Looking at seats like Newry

Armagh, Foyle and South Down, where the DUP was said to have gone

down, they were under pressure from other unionist, it is clear that in

the seats we have gone up and reinforced our position.

Let me put it in context it is not a simple answer that is why we have to

analyse them and look at them in the broader context. Looking at the

seats we had to look at them to ensure the best way for the votes to

go up. With Mid Ulster we had to ensure there was an intensive

canvass like never before. You didn't need two candidates to do

that? There was party rivalry? If you want to answer the question,

Mark, feel free. Why need me? What we are doing... You are avoiding an

important aspect here? We are doing this successfully across the country

to maximise the DUP vote. We have seen a rise in the seats that we

concentrated on to get the seats. But you will net get a second person

in Mid Ulster? Highly unlikely but the purpose was to improve the vote

and to increase the number one preferences there. We have succeeded

in doing that. I am looking at your colleague, Mr

Storey there in North Antrim. And pulling up the figures for North

Antrim. How did Mirvan do? He do OK in third position. Do you think you

will secure that? Three there will you? Yes, in Northampton? Definitely

three. What is interesting this about this, we are in contention for

the fourth seat there. It is not by any people means impossible to take

four. Phillip Logan is a new candidate. An impressive young man.

He fought a fantastic campaign. We are in the hunt for the fourth seat

but we may not take it. But for the seats, as in Strangford, wherever

possible we should be looking to increase. Looking to contest seats.

Too often parties sit back and safeguard what they have. Other

parties have shown that when you do try to extend yourself and reach out

you can be successful. OK.

Just to speak to Clare Hannah about Strangford, you have had some not

great news in certain constituencies but in Strangford, there has never

been a nationalist MLA. It looks very much as if Joe boil could pick

up the 6th seat? Yes it could and the SDLP is in the hunt for

Fermanagh South Tyrone and South Antrim. I hope so. I ran in that

constituency myself in 2010. We have been close to getting it. I hope

that Joe does do it. It put in a lot of energy. And this is the most

energy gettic campaign in the SDLP. Rome was not built in a day but

putting a score in Strangford is possible. And we are happy to see

it. Martina, you are also there with

your little tablet here, you are getting all kinds of messages from

party workers. What are you hearing at the moment about what might be

about to break as far as Sinn Fein is concerned? Any positive

developments that your attention is drawn to that we may not be hearing?

Or other disasters you may want to share with us. Any disappointments?

No. No. No. Nothing like that. The four candidates in south Tyrone have

polled well. Michelle guild knew getting 6,000-odd.

You have overreached yourself in Fermanagh South Tyrone? Well, you

have to overstretch yourself. Michelle got 6614. We have 4704,

3002. They are all healthy first reference votes.

That came about through default. That was not your choice to run four

candidates. Well... It took three attempts? We

are a democratic party. That is what we do in terms of selection. I think

it was right to take the time and put the effort in that we did to get

Michelle on to the ticket. She has polled over 6500,000. I think that

the people in the constituency and her on party colleague... 6500. And

then looking at Megan Fearon in Newry Armagh there are reports

coming in there of her polling very well, maybe reaching the quota. So

at this moment in time, there is no bad news to report.

Nigel Dodds, that was your phone. Do you have bad news to report? No. No.

That's the good news. Let's hear from Jim Allister, the

TUV leader at his counter. I am just looking at the numbers as far as

North Antrim is concerned. Nobody has actually been elected as yet,

but you are in second position, 4399, a little bit behind the DUP's

Paul Frew. The question is if you can bring your running mate with

you? I think you will find its 5399. Did I say 4000? I have about 400

short of the quota. Yes, 30 votes behind the person that topped the

poll. Gratified that my own personal vote has gone up. Timothy Gaston, my

running mate, has polled almost 2000. Sadly, it is unlikely to be

enough to bring him in with me. I anticipate no change, I think it

will be as we were in terms of the previous make-up. I am disappointed

that we haven't grown it to the point where we would have two,

although it is ups substantially from 11% to 18%. There is little

chance of him winning a seat, as you say. What about elsewhere? You have

said you don't want to be seen as a one-man band, you need to make a

breakthrough in the selection. People have talked about prospects

in East Antrim, East Londonderry, perhaps South Down does not look

like it will happen for Henry Reilly. Are we going to get the

breakthrough, or are you going to continue to be a lone voice in the

naughty corner? While not conceal the fact that I am disappointed.

Henry Reilly has spoken very well in South Down, but it will not be

enough to bring him in. I'm disappointed we have not seen the

growth I would wish for. You know, one has to respect the views of the

electorate, they have an election before them in a concept of

deception, the DUP were running a deceptive campaign, saying, vote DUP

to stops Sinn Fein... Nigel Dodds is saying sour grapes. You got one, you

are not likely to get any more and the DUP seems to be doing well?

Maybe let me finish this sentence and give me that respect. The point

I am making is that a deceptive campaign was run by the DUP that

says vote DUP, keep Sinn Fein out, they never finished the sentence,

which was, then we will bring them in. Martin McGuinness will be

restored as joint First Minister, exercising the powers he would have

exercised no matter who is called First Minister. But that is

democracy, the will of the people? I accept that, but we should be

careful talking about democracy in Northern Ireland, when the people

are not allowed to vote a party out of government and are not allowed to

change their government. I accept that people have voted as they have

voted, but they have also returned me to Stormont, that means they want

a continuance of the effective, authentic voice of opposition that

TUV provides. Maybe now there is more need than ever for that, given

the cabal of DUP and Sinn Fein will rule even stronger. I would say to

the other parties... We have just heard Henry Reilly has been

eliminated in South Down, definitely out of the hunt. Would you like to

be joined by others in the opposition voice? You are not going

to have enough to be in a formal opposition, would you like to see

one at Stormont? I was just about to say that I think other parties like

the SDLP and the Ulster Unionists are now in this situation going to

be treated even more as doormats by the Sinn Fein and DUP coalition.

Therefore, for the sake of their own dignity, there would be far better

forming a proper, effective opposition and mounting a challenge

to the DUP and Sinn Fein cabal. I hope they do that, or they will be

more and more the doormats of this executive. I don't think that is

good for anybody or democracy. Thank you very much. We will talk to you

later this evening or perhaps tomorrow. There were some very nasty

and better things said thereabout fellow unionists by Jim. I have in

front of me... You accused him of sour grapes? Sour grapes is a mild

term compared to words like cabal and that nasty talk. It is not a

pejorative word, is it? I have a clipping from Jim Allister, if I

return to Stormont, if the TV doesn't win any extra seats, that

would be failure in capital letters. -- TUV. Any seats or extra seats?

Extra seats. Coming back as a sole TUV would be acceptable? No, success

would be more than one. He admitted he was bitterly disappointed. You

gave him a good run, he attacked us, so let me say the point. It is

failure in his own terms. He has run a campaign which he is now

campaigning in the 5000 people that voted for the TUV are wonderful

people that know exactly what is going on. Some of your candidates

might be getting the sixth seat on TUV transfers? You need to make me

finish the point, please. Do you not accept that? There will be many

transfers from people. It is up to the people that decide. I don't know

what the relevance of that point is. You are attacking the TUV. Some of

them might also backed the DUP? I'm trying to respond to the attack by

Jim. If you allow me to finish the point, I am making the point that

Jim, please let me finish the point, Jim has said that people that voted

for him are to be credited and all of the rest of it. But everybody

else that voted for the DUP or anybody else that votes to maintain

Stormont, they are all being deceived, an attack on the

electorate, an attack on people exercising their democratic vote. To

go down the road of attacking voters is a very sad day indeed for Jim. He

is a failure by his own admission. I don't imagine you are terribly

surprised by what he said. In interest of balance, let's have

both. Doormats, he has used that phrase before. We will discuss with

the other parties in the two weeks that we will have, whether or not we

go into government and then we will make a decision. We will come back

and he's that out a bit more in due course. I just want to go back to

Tara in the exhibition centre. Getting tetchy in the studio. You

haven't actually be elected yet, but you are 13 votes off the mark. Do

you appeal to wider than the traditional Sinn Fein vote? The main

thing is to congratulate Mr Alistair, we are looking for 13

votes, hopefully we will find them. The Sinn Fein vote in south Belfast

is up 2%. It is the highest ever percentage of the votes that Sinn

Fein has taken in south Belfast. I think it is about building a rainbow

coalition, not just those that are traditional Republicans and

nationalists, but those that represent the gay community, the

Irish community, that want to move Belfast to a brighter and better

place. As far as I am concerned, my proposition to all of those people

was, together, together we can build a shared future and shared society.

I think that was rewarded in the size of the voting. Things are

shaking up a little bit in South Belfast and that is good for

everybody. Belfast needs shaking up. The Assembly needs to have more

change and I hope the election leads to that. You predict a fresh start,

in what way? First of all, there is going to be a lot of young people

that have been returned to the Assembly, new parties. I do believe

those parties that committed, and we all did, they accept that what has

happened until now is not good enough. As you work is not good

enough. The fresh start really needs to mean an urgent stepping up of the

pace of the work of reconciliation and job creation. It all comes down

to jobs. It really means is partnering each other to deliver

that, as Arlene Foster said, a greater premium on consensus than on

conflict. I believe that and will act accordingly. We hear that time

and time again, then it seems to be a bunfight between Sinn Fein and the

DUP that comes up about what is going to be agreed and not agreed? I

think people need to reflect on signing up to the agreement, Sinn

Fein and I believe the DUP are committed to that, I hope the other

parties are as well. What we heard on the doorstep, for me, getting the

biggest ever vote for Sinn Fein in East Belfast, that is for people

like the gay couple that are not able to get married because of the

antiquated laws, Sheila Leire Landa hand, a young Irish speaker whose

language is treated like a non-language. It is for the Roma

community, Muslims and Romanians, sometimes treated as second-class

citizens. The message is, get your act together, step up the pace of

change. When you hear it from me, it is my commitment and my pledge. You

did not mention the pro-choice or pro-life argument, do you think that

is where your party is behind the curve? I don't think so. When you

reflect on the fact that a priest spoke in a language that was

ill-advised to one of my female canvassers, I think the church has

to realise they cannot preach to politicians. I only received two

e-mails in my entire Assembly career from the Palace of the bishop, both

were about moral issues, social issues, gay marriage, the crucial

issue of abortion. What I would say to those that try to push back on

this issue is let's have a compassionate approach to gay

marriage and to the issue of abortion. In cases of sexual crime,

Sinn Fein are saying that those women that have been subject to

sexual crime and wish to have an abortion should have that choice, in

his beetle Abner Mark -- in faetal as well -- foetus abnormality as

well. I think this is a good position and one that we will

defend. The constituency is changing. I think we can see

pictures of Anna Lo. What do you think is the difference, if somebody

is elected, bringing a Green Party member into the Assembly, what

difference will it make? For people like myself who want a rainbow

coalition, there are not enough people of colour, not enough gay

people and not enough women. Anybody that wants to sign up for radical

change, how we approach constituents and respect the people that make up

the electorate, I am with them on that. These are fresh, strong

voices. There are fresh voices for Sinn Fein as well. I know my

colleagues in Mid Ulster were returned. Let's see what the new

Stormont looks like. Let's sign up for not just a fresh start in

rhetoric, but in action. Thank you very much indeed, I am sure you will

be elected if there is only 30 votes in it.

Interesting to hear what Mairtin O Muilleoir had to say. Let's have a

word with my guests around the table. We have not heard from Claire

for a moment or two. Let's talk about South Belfast. Not returned