Assembly Election Part 1 Election 2016: Wales

studio with a look ahead to tonight's results programme.

We will be here from 11:45pm and we will be carrying on through the

night. After all, it is the biggest test of electoral opinion across the

UK before the next general election. We will have results from the

Scottish parliament, the assemblies in Wales and Northern Ireland, more

than 100 local councils in England and city mayors including the London

mayor. Viewers in Scotland and Wales will have their own coverage and we

should get some early results before midnight.

Election coverage for viewers in Scotland and Wales

Welcome to election Wells, 2016, we will watch all of Wales to see who

has won for you live. We'll bring you the results, the surprises, the

ups and downs. As Wales takes shape we bring you all the reaction. Stay

with us for election Wales 2016. And this is where we will be

throughout the night. As we find out how Wales has voted and who are the

winners and losers. Good evening. And welcome to election night, live

on BBC One Wales and radio Wales. We are on a until 9 AM tomorrow, we

will know the political shape of Wales for the next 5 years. He will

be making the big decisions about your jobs, schools and hospitals.

Join us tonight on social media... After 17 years in charge will Carwyn

Jones and Welsh Labour win again and if so, will they have enough seats

to form a government on their own? The Welsh Conservative leader Andrew

RT Davies and Leanne Wood are pushing hard, Kirsty Williams and

the Liberal Democrats, could they face by bike? Nathan Gill and you'd

Ukip, the new kids on the block. And did tonight signal a breakthrough

for the Greens and their leader Alice Hooker-Stroud. The polls have

suggested this election could be closer than any before. What can we

expect? Politicians left the Senate weeks ago so we have talked away in

for the evening and all night, we will guide you through the numbers

aren't what they mean for you, the parties and for Wales. Let's cross

over to the magic carpet in Cardiff Bay! Thank you and welcome to the

beautiful Senate building, home to the virtual reality graphics set,

also the end of the road for 60 of the hundreds of candidates for the

assembly election. We be opening up the floor and as the results come

in, we will fill up the seats with the new assembly members and when we

know who is in and out, who has won and lost I will be able to show you

why that affects the political make-up and geographical landscape

of Wales for the next 5 years. Thank you. Other boxes began arriving in

counting centres across Wales about 30 minutes ago, a huge operation

involving thousands of people. Candidates and parties, it's a

waiting game and file we wait, there is plenty to talk about. What, if

anything made you vote today? Jason Mohammed will find out in the spin

room... Jason... A very good evening. Welcome to the spin room,

we will discuss all the big issues for education to hospitals, jobs,

the economy and there is no escaping the big debate on Europe. I'll chat

to lots of my guests here and also some of the BBC generation 2016

young voters, I am entrusting them with social media, they will tell me

what is hot and what is not. Throughout the night some of the

biggest names in Welsh politics will join us in the studio. Facing up to

the message of the ballot box and Felicity Evans will give them no

wriggle room on her supper... They wouldn't get too cosy here on the

sofa but election night is very much like a school disco, everyone is

overexcited, they have talked about nothing else for weeks but as the

evening wears on, people get tired and emotional, the slow songs start

to play and none of us want to be a wallflower, there could be tears

before bedtime. There may well be. Thank you. Where would BB without

the people who love analysing swings and turnouts? We will be joined by

some wise woman later, but some wise men, Professor Richard Wyn Jones and

Nick Servini. A great deal of unpredictability. We will crunch

through the smaller details and looking at how it forms the bigger

picture. And I expect a night of close margins in constituencies

throughout Wales. We will look to Scotland, the SNP, it seems to be...

Nailed on that they will win but the battle for 2nd between Labour and

the Conservatives, and 4th, tween the Green party the Liberal

Democrats is hot and we have some interesting local elections in

England and we will keep an eye on. Thank you and as we look back at the

big issues of this campaign and how they affect the results tonight we

will be joined I are health and economy experts. Throughout the

campaign Port Talbot steel was like a magnet to politicians as they

wanted to make clear how much they support the steel industry. But on

the doorstep you tell us that you want better living standards, better

wages and better connectivity. Yes, long waiting times, shortages of

staff, management problems, changes to local services, the politicians

have argued lots about health and you tell us it is your priority. But

have any of them convinced you they have the remedy? It really is a

super Thursday the elections. Today we have seen the vote for the

Scottish Parliament, Northern Ireland Assembly, London Mayor, and

Police and Crime Commissioner is, amongst them. They are not all

counting to night and we will bring you the view from Westminster and

results from Scotland. Before we hear from our Parliamentary

correspondent let's head to Glasgow and our reporter there. Good

evening. Accounting has started in Glasgow. 15 seats up for grabs, but

hundred and 29 across Scotland, the expectation that the SNP will take

more than half of those and so the SNP will once again get a majority

in Holyrood, as they did 5 years ago. -- 129. Political pundits here

tell you that the question is how big the majority will be and

secondly, who will win the race for runner-up? Labour have been so

dominant in Scotland over the decades, will they slide into 3rd

place behind the Conservatives? Is it promises to be an intriguing and

fascinating night once again. We will keep you updated. Thank you.

David... Tonight, the biggest test yet for the leadership of Germany

Corbyn, 8 months in, more than 2700 seats in councils, 124 councils

across England being fought. These were last fought four years ago,

Labour under Ed Miliband did well. You might expect Labour would fall

back slightly, Germany Corbyn says no, Labour or in the business of

winning more seats. A big test for him, and in London, the big prize,

who will be the new Boris Johnson, will it be Siddique can't, or will

it be Sako Smith? Lots to play for. -- Zac Goldsmith. The party leaders

voted today and we will be live at counting centres across the country.

Let's go 1st to Labour leader Carwyn Jones in Bridgend, and his count

there. It's all systems go in Bridgend. No signs of Carwyn Jones

yet but he knows it will be a long and late night. He is confident of

defending his Bridgend constituency, majority of 6800 last time, a

different sort of arithmetic worrying him. Labour have been in

the doldrums in the opinion polls, down to 33%. The worst lowest ebb

since 2010, how will that translate to the actual vote, the number of

seats they will have tomorrow? Less than 30 and he is going to be

talking about compromises and coalitions, more than 30, he is home

and try, 2007, his predecessor Rhodri Morgan, 26, forced into

coalition with Plaid Cymru, Carwyn Jones won't want to have that

discussion tonight or tomorrow. 2 other counts here as well, briefly,

the Ogmore assembly seat, Hugh Davies standing there are

relinquishing his Westminster seat, and we have a by-election, by the

way, we are expecting that result 1st, somewhere after midnight. In

the Cardiff can't we will hear whether the Conservative leader

Andrew RT Davies has secured a regional seat and a return ticket to

the assembly. -- the Cardiff count. The expectation is he will be

returned for a 3rd time as a regional member for the South Wales

Central region. But the question is will he suffered potentially the

same fate as his predecessor, he will be worried about that, in 2011,

is predecessor lost his regional seat because the party made

constituency gains, if the Welsh Conservatives have particularly good

night and in this region pick-up target seats from Labour, such as

Cardiff North, which by the way, I hear is in play but the

Conservatives and the Vale of Glamorgan... Andrew Arty Davies

might start to sweat over his own regional seat. As for the party,

currently 14 seats, the official opposition in the assembly and the

challenge for him is clear, continue a run that has seen them increase

the number of seats in the Senate in every single assembly election to

date. If they do that, party officials say it's been a fantastic

night for the party but if he fails to do that, and they fall back,

perhaps to 3rd... Then they admit perhaps the knives could be out for

Andrew RT Davies. 1 of the biggest contest is in the Rhondda, Plaid

Cymru leader Leanne Wood is taking on 1 of the big beasts of the Labour

Party. A year into the job as leader, Leanne Wood made a speech

four years ago, saying she would be standing in the Rhondda, taking a

massive gamble with her political career, at the time candidates could

not stand on the regional list and in the constituency. That gamble may

be more slight, but she is risking the reputation this evening, taking

on Leighton Andrews, public services Minister, 1 of the big beasts of

Labour, won the seat 5 years ago with 63% of the vote, twice as many

as Plaid Cymru. If Leanne Wood does not win here tonight, she needs to

make a big dent in it to make this gamble worthwhile. Nationally,

Leanne Wood wants to be the First Minister leading ape-like Comrie

government, the polls suggesting that this not likely to happen. --

leading an applied Comrie government. The Conservatives in 2nd

place... Plaid Cymru winning 11, the worst election result, that needs to

change for Leanne Wood to have a happy week, going forward. We heard

from James at the Cardiff count, the knives may be at the Conservative

leader if he can see Plaid Cymru into 2nd, the same truth or Leanne

Wood. Thank you. The Lib Dem leader Kirsty Williams is hoping to hang on

to her seat in Brecon and Radnorshire. That's right, all eyes

will be an Kirsty Williams. She bids to hold onto the seat she has held

since the assembly inception back in 1999. The Lib Dems took a battering

in the Westminster elections last year, the Conservatives breaking

their 18 year stranglehold here, some predicting another testing

evening for the Lib Dems nationwide. And Kirsty Williams competition is

likely to come from Gary Price, the Conservative candidate. He actually

stood for Plaid Cymru 5 years ago. This is 1 of the seats the Tories

have targeted this year, a rural constituency, geographically the

largest in Wales, with the Lib Dems under pressure nationwide, Kirsty

Williams, who isn't on the regional list, she will be desperate to

secure a 3rd successive win. We will get the North Wales regional

result... And find out if Ukip Wales leader Nathan Gill has made to

Cardiff Bay. That is right. Nathan Gill, 1st on the regional list in

North Wales, support for his party remaining impressively robust

throughout the election campaign. If you trust the pollsters, they say

you could see a Ukip member entering the assembly in Cardiff Bay in large

numbers, 8- 9 seats of the prediction, the party leader at a UK

level, more cautious, he says 5- 6 would be a good night. The party

targeting traditional Labour strongholds, industrial heartlands

like here in the north-east. It would be a mark about to see that

many Ukip members entering the assembly, given that we haven't had

a single 1 entering the assembly in its history so far and there has

been a fractious internal rather than the party over who should be

selected as a candidate for this assembly election. Speaking to party

supporters on the ground, they are positive and up beet, they say it's

been a good campaign but they are holding back because they say they

have been in this position so often, so much has been promised ahead of

the election and on the night things don't go their way. But they are

saying they think it's advantageous that the EU debate has been running

alongside this assembly election campaign, they said they'd been able

to engage with voters who aren't that bothered about assembly

politics and they've been able to say to them, there is this other

thing happening in the 5th of May, why don't you turn out and vote?

They say that message is cutting through. Thank you, what about the

Green party? Are leader Alice Hooker-Stroud is hoping to secure a

regional seat and we will get that result in Llanelli.

Jones to that is right. Alice Hooker-Stroud here in Llanelli is

hoping for a win. She is one of the youngest and newest political

leaders in the UK. She only replaced Pippa Bartolotti last September. She

has impressed. See held her own in the debate and is confident of a

win. Unsurprisingly Nathalie benefit the leader of the Greens in England

and Wales agrees. She is confident she will have that win and is also

hoping for three green AMs in the Senedd. They haven't got any at the

moment. Any news, we will give it to you. Our experts and politicians are

chomping at the bit ready to share their views. Before we hear from

them, R Wynn Jones will flag up what we need to look at and where. Thank

you. We will look at the performances of the parties in

previous elections and then look ahead to what we can expect this

evening. Let's open up the floor and show you the chamber. And revealed

the results of the 2011 elections. Labour is the largest party on the

30 Assembly members. Not having enough to cross that threshold into

a majority of 31. The second largest party the Conservatives, the main

opposition parties, 14 AMs for them. In third place was Plaid Cymru with

11. Bear in mind, the colour has changed. Not their traditional

green. You look in the chamber and the map is aware that in mind.

Before the party, the Lib Dems in fourth place with five Assembly

members. That is how it looked at 2011. That is history so let's get

rid of that. That's look back a little bit further. Back to the

earliest collections in 1999. The co-interesting it was. The battle

for first place. How close Plaid Cymru word to the Labour Party back

then. After that, there is a bit of to and fro in terms of the level of

support for the Labour Party but they keep that situation, dominant

in Welsh politics. Both share of the vote and also number of Assembly

members. It is always interesting befuddle for second place. The race.

Plaid Cymru in 1999 miles ahead of the Conservatives. 17%. Look what

happens from election to election. The Conservatives gaining more and

more support. At the same time Plaid Cymru losing support in pretty much

all of these elections until you get to 2011. The Conservatives overtake

Plaid Cymru into second place as the main opposition party. That is the

history. That is how things have so far. You wanted to know what happens

tonight, let's see what could change. My list of the most marginal

seats in Wales. These are the on paper at least most likely to change

hands. The list, Cardiff Central, Llanelli and Carmarthen West. Top of

the list Cardiff Central. Labour won it in 2011 but only 38 votes ahead

of the Lib Dems. The Lib Dems hope they can take that from Labour this

evening. We go a little bit further west. We have got Cadan ap Tomos.

Labour held the seventh 2011. This went back and forth several times

between Plaid Cymru and labour. Played by hoping they can take that.

Then you have Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire here. The

Conservatives here in 2011. What is interesting here because of that

Plaid Cymru and labour in second and third place. This is a 3-way

marginal. Always interesting on the night. Where the Conservatives are

defending. The Tories will be hoping to make some gains. Top of their

list will be Cardiff North. Labour held that in 2011. The Conservatives

have got the MP there so they will be hoping to turn Cardiff North Tory

blue. They will also be looking at somewhere like Ceredigion Brechin

and Radnorshire. Full stop that would be a huge scalp. Also hopeful

in the state traditional Labour strongholds of the industrial

north-east of Wales. Last year in the General Election they took the

Vale of Clwyd from Labour. They are also talking about Wrexham. If that

happens it would be terrible for Labour and great with the

Conservatives. We will wait and see. I haven't mentioned UKIP that and

the reason for that, despite that we have been talking so much about

making games and getting the first representatives, why is that? We're

not talking about the 40 constituencies, referring to UKIP

making games, we are looking at the five regions. 40 constituency AMs,

20 regional AMs. In 2011 and you had to North Wales where the

Conservatives were doing pretty well. Then the massive swathes of

land with mid and West Wales. Labour were doing quite well there in 2011.

I will go through the three South Wales coast is if you like, we have

gone South Wales west, South Wales Central and South Wales East where

the Conservatives were doing quite well, sharing the seat there was

Plaid Cymru. It is on these five regions that we are expecting UKIP

to make gains. According to the opinion polls they could be looking

at at least one game in each of the five regions. We think about which

parties tend to be at the bottom of those regional lists, it tends to be

Lib Dems and the Conservatives. That is why they are the most vulnerable

parties when it comes to the rise of UKIP. Tonight we are talking about

seats changing hands. Don't just look at this pretty colourful

constituencies here. Also bear in mind the 20 regional AMs because

that is what might decide which party has a good night tonight and

which party has a disappointing night. Bethan. Thank you very much.

Plenty to talk about there. Let's touch base with Nick and Richard.

Nick, polls closed 15 minutes ago. Social media and sources are

swirling. What are you picking up? A range of phone calls just before we

came on air. Labour sound twitchy to me. Pretty nervous about the number

of marginal seats that we have spoken about. A marked difference in

tone with the Conservatives who were pointing to a huge telephone

canvassing operation, for example, in Wales, over 150 people hitting

the phones in the canvassing operation looking at those who had

given pledges early on. Some cold calling. An example they say of a

very effective on the ground operation. Plaid in terms of the

mood music seem to be pretty solid, straight down the middle. The Lib

Dems are very pessimistic about what is going to happen tonight. They

were saying even if they get close to where they were five years ago,

it is not good enough because of the impact on UKIP and how it could dent

their votes. We don't have an exit poll tonight as we had a very

surprising one a year ago, Richard. But we do have a pole and it is at

Cardiff University. Talk through that. It is at Cardiff -- Cardiff

University. We have gone back to the people who were pulled yesterday.

The people we have spoken to regularly over the last few weeks as

part of a broader survey. We asked them what have they done to date.

The story is essentially very little change from the polls. It is all

margin of error stuff. If you do the projection, the numbers are Labour

27, Plaid Cymru 12, Conservatives 11. Plaid Cymru just ahead of the

Conservatives. UKIP on yet. Lib Dems on a perhaps optimistic too. I think

there needs to be a note of caution -- two. We haven't had any except

Cardiff University doing any polling. We have got nothing to

compare this with. You mentioned the polling last year. It wasn't bad in

Wales but overall the picture wasn't great. The margins are very fine

here. Arwyn was telling us, for the last seats on the list you could be

talking of a few dozen hundred votes. The margins are very fine

here. We just have one quote in from Nathan Gill. I don't know what we

can bring it up. 16% projected for Wales. He is responding to the poll,

the leader of UKIP in Wales. Giving us an amazing eight AMs. We shall

see. They would be thrilled with that, wouldn't they? It would be a

totally remarkable result for a party to come in. The Liberal

Democrats in their heyday were not getting eight. That would be an

enormous success. A big stride forward for them. Not only in Wales

but the UK because for the first time it would give UKIP a

legislature base which is not in Europe, which is frankly not wearing

UKIP want to be. This would be a big breakthrough for UKIP not only in

Wales but across the UK. We have asked ourselves the question, will

be UKIP voters turn out this week? We know they insist used by the

European referendum. Will they be induced enough to actually come out

and vote in the Assembly campaign? A projection like that, a suggestion

that they have shown up and they have teamed up with that proves to

be true. If Labour were to get 27 as that suggests to be true, what would

it be like for Labour? We are talking about the seat projection,

we come back to the Welsh electoral system and its strangeness. The

figures under the bonnet in terms of the percentage support for Labour

suggest Labour have lost around a quarter of their votes since 2011.

That is a huge drop-off in support and yet only losing three seats net.

This is a very East stick it... It favours the Labour Party. To lose a

quarter of your vote and yet only lose three seats is quite

remarkable. We will get onto the voting system I am sure. Thank you,

gentlemen. Let's go over to the server. Thank you. Welcome. With me

for the next couple of hours to keep the company. I will introduce case

when Byrne is the Welsh Euro MP for the Conservatives. Jenny Rathbone

for the Conservatives. I beg your pardon, Jenny Willott. Forgive me.

Let's hope the evening doesn't go on like that or it will be very

confusing for all of us. Here on my left, Stephen Dowty. Alex from UKIP

and Jonathan Edwards for Carmarthenshire is. Let me start

with you, Alex, you're the new kid on the block. You have just seen

that breed from your party leader Nathan Gill talking about a

potential eight seats. You have been expected to do very well. How good

is good for you? We are coming for a position of not having AMs. Getting

five which is anything but we would expect to bat at a minimum. It is an

incredible 500% increase. With a 1-party guaranteed to be very happy

at the end of the night. Looking at extra seats, with the De Haan

system, it is very interdependent on how parties perform, it is difficult

to say we'll get six, seven, eight. Anything else is a bonus. How would

you sum up the campaign you have had? Because it seems you have had a

disastrous campaign on the surface with problems coalescing around your

party leader but apparently nothing that has gone wrong seems to have

dented your support with voters. It has potentially had its band sounds

internally but those things haven't necessarily affected the voters. Why

do you think that is? Outside the political bubble, rifts and

disagreements are not interesting to the voters. They go out there and

decide what they want to happen in the next government. They look at

policies, they are listening to the messages of the party. UKIP has been

on an upward trajectory for quite a few years. After the General

Election, third biggest party in the country they are. We are bringing

that legacy forward into the Welsh Assembly elections and hopefully we

will get or first political stronghold here. We will look

forward to getting the meat of the results in due course. Stephen

Dowty. It is a difficult campaign for Labour as the incumbent party

for the last 17 years. This campaign has been hung around the shoulder of

Carwyn Jones your leader and First Minister. How much pressure is on

him given the chapati is defending a high watermark from 2011? You're

right. It was a high water mark. It is always going to be tough. Let's

not forget that in the rest Assembly elections, a few hundred votes

either way would have seen the type of seat projections we are seeing

tonight. I think it is going to be very close. Lead don't think anybody

do that. Carwyn Jones throughout has been the only credible First

Minister candidate and has had a very successful campaign. I think he

has come across very strongly even in the days up until the dissolution

of the Assembly fighting in the steel industry. I think he has been

very popular and very personable and speaking on the right issues. We

have to wait and see if the votes are counted but it will be very

close. How many see classes are acceptable do you think a given this

campaign has been hung around him? -- losses. The electoral system

means we are unlikely to take many seats and the regional lists. The

party -- the Paul Tonight Show is there hasn't been a breakthrough for

the major parties. The reality is we still expect to be the largest party

in forming a government after the results are counted. If the polls

are right and we take them with a health warning after last year but

if you are seeing a collapse in the vote as suggested, that is damaging

to your party. That is serious business even if it isn't reflected

in the number of seats. I don't know the figures that Richard is

referring to. This is on the electoral system we have got and it

results in people being elected on constituencies and people being

elected regional lists and being a foreign government or not. He has

come across as the only credible First Minister. That is what matters

to people when they are forming a government.

Jonathan Edwards, we talk about pressure on leaders, how much

pressure is Leanne Wood under to deliver a good performance? She had

a bad election last year... How long can this on with Leanne Wood

remaining leader? Her position is completely secure. Stephen talks

about the popularity of Carwyn Jones but he trails in the opinion polls,

stratospherically behind Leanne Wood, she is by far the most popular

politician in Wales. The position is there for her as long as she wants

it, as far as I am concerned. Plaid Cymru, you are right, in 2011,

difficult election, but this has more of the feel of 2007, we came

off the back of a bad election in 2003. If it is more like that for me

than 2011, then, the election was the second electoral priority for

us, the referendum by far was more important for us in terms of

strategic object is for the party, the country, and the election which

followed a month after. This election is the key for us, and the

impetus is to regain second place. I was going to ask about the fight for

second place, in terms of seats and sure of the vote or will you do the

politician trick and claim which are the most favourable is the one you

were looking for. It's all about seats and security. If you don't

regain that, surely... The proof of that pudding is in the eating and

the eating Whidbey, you would be in second party place? I am enthused by

the campaign that we run, I think by far we have the best manifesto, the

Labour Party manifesto is 24 pages, no pledges, nothing worth in it, we

have over 200 pages of clear policies. They don't have pledges,

whether you agree with them is another matter... It's by far the

best group of politicians coming through, we have the most talented.

The party has run a very professional campaign, there has

been great work on the ground, the one thing we need to do is break

through and improve the infrastructure on the ground. Here

tonight, I had never been more convinced that we will one day when

the Welsh general election, I am convinced. You think it's tonight?

Nearly not... We will talk more in the second. For the Conservative...

It's the talk and the fight for second place. Your leader under

pressure? In fairness, we have focused on the manifesto and the

pledges. On a very positive campaign and I think that's the way we should

be running the election here in Wales. There have been issues,

obviously other things on a national basis throughout the UK that have

maybe come along to try and deflect things but we tried very hard to

keep the message on Wales, the wealth issues and things that Welsh

voters need to consider. After 17 years of what we considered to be a

failed Labour government. He succeeded someone who took the party

to the best ever assembly results in 2011 and in this campaign, David

Cameron, the National UK leader of the party, didn't even have public

opportunity with him. That's not quite true, he was in Wales, further

you were there for the photos are not and he has been in Wales... It's

been busy too, the real thing for me... He didn't shake his hand for

the camera. The political strategist... George Osborne, when

he came to the city, and talked about him being the next First

Minister of Wales, repeatedly, that is how much regard Andrew is held

within the party and we shouldn't trivialise the issues, when David

Cameron comes to Wales, he comes for a purpose and that usually isn't

about electioneering. The other day when he came, it was about Tata

steel. If Plaid Cymru Beach at a second place, is Ian trouble? I

don't think it's about leaders. -- beats you. We should concentrate on

what is important to voters. We have had strong leaders in the leaders

debate showing their faces and I think it's up to those people who

form the next assembly members and those political groups, to decide

that. I don't think there's any danger whatsoever. Johnny Willett,

the Liberal Democrats, is this a fight for survival? We had a

difficult set of results. What has been amazing over the last year, we

had a huge increase in membership across Wales and the amount of

activity that's going on. -- Jenny Willett. I think it's going to be a

difficult night, no point in pretending... Will your leader keep

the receipt? I think Kirsty is an excellent leader, I think she's done

and she's made an impact in the assembly over the past five years.

Changing the law on nurses and actually making sure the Lib Dems

have been able to influence the way things happen in Wales, way more

than you would expect for a group size of five. We had a real impact,

Kirsty a credit to the party. The fact that we are building from the

bottom, we are growing, that gives us optimism for the future. David

Bevan... We will talk about the assembly aspect in Jude course but

give us a sense of what it has been like as a minority party, fighting

this election. The biggest problem has been to get the message out. We

have had very little media time... To be fair, the BBC have given us a

view to minute slots here and there, ITV have given us nothing at all. We

have sent a leaflet to 1.5 million households, every household in

Wales, and that has stirred people up. I think... Facebook and Twitter

probably is the way forward. But I am not an expert! I can see a new

party, you allocate time on the media... Depending on how many votes

you have, we didn't exist in the last election. But... In the

referendum that set up the assembly, it was 50%... But the polls seem to

have moved on somewhat since then and we will talk about that, I

promise. And we will return to that, I promise. But for the moment, thank

you very much. Beth come over to you. Thank you, we

are hearing, the Conservatives are talking up several of the target

seats. Cardiff North, the Vale of Glamorgan, Wrexham, even Wrexham

listened the Vale of Clwyd... Let's ask the horse's mouth, we have the

leader of the party in Wales... I have been called many things... That

is one of the nicest. You know what I mean. At least you are laughing,

you are happy. I am always happy. Lizaad a good night for the Welsh

Conservatives? We will have to wait and see, the electorate have had the

chance to speak, a couple of minutes ago the opinion polls and the polls

shot. The electorate will determine this outcome and the votes will be

counted in the next few hours, we do not have long to wait, I am proud of

the candidates in the field, the regions and the constituencies, I

did my 36 hour tour at the beginning of the week and I have to say, the

feeling we were getting was really positive. Are you hearing what we

are hearing, you may be making breakthroughs... Tell me what you

are hearing. Breakthroughs in the constituencies and not so well

perhaps on the lists. That is the electoral system, you do well in the

constituencies, you pay for it on the regional, our strategy has been

to grow the constituency base, that will be for the electorate to

determine. I am proud of the candidates, the policies we fielded,

ultimately they have gained traction. We are racing ahead, I

know, it's early. But let's say you were to take the Vale of Glamorgan

and Cardiff Central, you, personally, would be vulnerable on

the list, you would lose your seat? If we took Cardiff Central... If you

took Cardiff Central... Cardiff North. That is the system, you put

yourself forward. I would be pleased at the end of the night, to make

sure the Welsh Conservative Party moves forward in Wales, because we

are a team, we work together and as I said, I am immensely proud of what

has gone on. It's what happened last time to your former leader and it

could happen to you? You would be fine? OK... Richard... I can confirm

my colleagues and I run the numbers and I am afraid, on the polling

yesterday... Assuming the Conservatives would win Vale of

Glamorgan and Cardiff North... Andrew would lose his seat, no

doubt. It is very, very close and as I said at the start, the margins are

tight but that is where we are with the numbers from yesterday. That is

life. There would be life after politics. It will not really bother

me. If you were to leave the assembly... There will be plenty of

able people to take issues, politics is not about individuals, it's about

policies and policies to improve the lives of people. If the poll is

correct you are doing well on seats but you are losing, or the world you

would be down three seats, from 14 to 11... That poll is pinch of salt

territory. I have had the privilege to go round Wales and meet everyone

of our candidates. Today, I have done seven target seats and the feel

is positive and good. But it would be for the elected to determine,

what I am proud about, the campaign we have run, the policies we put

forward and if we are successful, we are successful, if not, that as

elections. I have been out with you during the course of the campaign,

how much of an issue has been a disagreement over the EU referendum

for the Conservative Party? None at all. Very little talk about it, to

be honest. Yes, people have raised the referendum but not the

difference between myself and the Prime Minister. Because it's a

referendum, we will all get a chance to vote in that, our votes will

carry no more weight than any other individual, but what people want to

talk about, especially in North Wales, there were nine ambulances

outside Wrexham and D department, how people will improve the NHS for

the community, how will make improvements in education, the

economy... Those are the debating points. Thank you for popping in,

perhaps you were popping in the morning? If I have no cars to milk!

Thank you. Let's touch base with Jason in the spin room.

Thank you, I have managed to drag three people away from the muffins

and coffee and the orange juice. That will see us through to the

early hours. Sarah Dickens, a very good radio friend of mine, we share

a studio backing Radio Wales... We are reunited after ten years. Chris

Sutton, from the CBI in Wales, and Carol Thomas who runs her own

cleaning business in Swansea. Good evening to all of you. First of all,

let's talk about the economy. Do you think, Sarah, a general overview,

what has happened in Port Talbot has slightly overshadowed the political

discussion? Obviously the politicians were really keen to make

it clear they were fighting for steel and they think it's important

to those communities. I think it's important in another way, it made us

think about either industries that are so central to the economy that

they need extra help? I think that's been an important point to think

about, as a nation here, but as individuals, interestingly, we have

got a Conservative UK Government suggesting that it could possibly

fit in 25% of the stake in tattered state, that kind of language has not

talked about since the 70s and that was happening while we talked about

how to make the Welsh economy stronger. -- Tata steel. It's not

just about Steve, it's about the industries we really need and what

industry is important because of the jobs they bring. Chris, do you think

a political party will come out of the steel crisis with glowing

colours and maybe convince somebody to vote today for a certain party

over strategy? I think it's good the UK Government has taken on the

mantle, it's a structural industry for the UK economy and it needs to

be lived that context but what I would say, it shows Wales's place in

the world, when you get a shiver through the global economy, whether

it's steel or alternatively go back 18 months, to the oil situation, in

West Wales, actually sometimes things are bigger than the Welsh

economy, we need to get the Welsh economy on a footing that compete

globally, that is getting the right world class skills and

infrastructure. Going from a global steel giant in Port Talbot to a

slightly smaller business... Just down the Mfor in Swansea, you run a

cleaning business, do you think the political leaders and the possible

AM is that you have seen knocking on your door, have spoken to you, do

you think they have done enough to convince you they will be the

perfect politician running a small business? As a business owner, no.

Obviously everything is in the manifesto and if you have the time

to read that you can see which party is best for you but as a business

owner, your time is focused elsewhere. There are things in there

that affect us, but nobody I can see has come banging on my door saying

this is how we will affect your future wages, business rates,

premises rates... And they are creating a lot of new

apprenticeships, so nobody has come out as saying we are creating a

skilled workforce for your next generation of employees. And that's

a large area that they could target. But it's interesting, OK, they

haven't knocked door and talked about rates but in the message,

there is early much from the Welsh Conservatives, Welsh Labour, talk of

cutting business rates or maybe that has been lost?

How many people sit down and read a manifesto? It is full of it printed

so it is. I have never known apprenticeships to be such a sexy

thing. Also business rates. If it hasn't been getting through to

people running businesses... It is very complicated. You work in the

property sector. It can be varied in lots of different ways but can it

create stable funding the Government or does it incentivise economic

activity. The message from the manifestos is will the worst small

business rates, those small businesses will be more prosperous

to stop it doesn't necessarily add up like that. You think some of the

big news stories, like Aston Martin bring the new luxury SUV, do you

think that will have had an impact? That shows we are a very attractive

place to do business for some of these companies. Automotives in

Wales are really good. Many components. To be making a car but

also that the Aston Martin is here is a real badge for Wales to be able

to say we have the right skills and economic climate to satisfy a

demanding customer that looked all round the world. That won't solve

it. One of the other stories that came out during the election time

with the unemployment figures. The best we have had in Wales since 2008

and now it is lower than in the UK. We still have the lowest wages. We

are right on the bottom of average wages for different parts of the UK

and we also produced the lowest amount of value, the goods and

services that we make. We have the jobs but the messages of that is

that clearly the jobs are low paid and low skilled. Chris, you and I

both know how political polities work. When Aston Martin came out

with his big headline, the spin doctors were robbing their hands

saying they kept political capital out of this. Who will take credit

for that and will they see any results denied? One party were in

power when that was announced. There is... Camera and came down to here

and announced that it was on the radar in terms of a site that was

being released. Coming to Plaid and talking about rejuvenating a WDA.

Some of the activity like land reclamation have gone. In the inward

investment piece. That has come quite significantly in recent years.

I would be interesting whether you think something like a Welsh

development bank or WDA would feel relevant to you business. Do you

think that would be there to help you? It is interesting. Sometime

usually need that extra capital as a starter to text that the next level.

On Aston Martin, I know in some manifestos they are aiming to get

entrepreneurship into further education and higher education. That

means we can keep graduates and put them into rules that are suitable

for them and they aren't going further and that might develop them

into smaller businesses that could then benefit from that type of

banking system. We are also having a little bit of fun tonight. Given the

fact that the European football championships are coming, we are

proud Wales are part of this, and because I do this with the BBC in

sporting context, what we have done is we have a lot of Assembly

members. Will they still be Assembly members tonight, we don't know. We

have decided to put together a Welsh political fantasy football team. We

have picked out a goalkeeper. We need a goalkeeper. Kirsty Williams,

Jane Hutt and also Elin Jones. These guys picked them out. We need a

goalkeeper. We are looking at someone who has a real safe pair of

hands who can dominate and dictate to the defence what they are going

to do. I think it should be Jane Hutt because she has been in charge

of the purse strings for Welsh Government for some time and she has

held on tight. That is what you need. I don't know about football

but she wants to get that ball and not let go. I like that. Are you

free on a Saturday afternoon? I am looking for a big personality and I

think Kirsty could dominate in that way but there is a gatekeeper

element. The purse strings would be good. I am going for her as well for

the financial aspect. We have the first name on the team sheet. Jane

Hutt is the goalkeeper. I wondered how long it would be before you

brought football in. We would be back to Jason very soon. If you're

with us on BBC Radio Wales we're going to have a look at some

pictures from the count in Karnataka on as they're coming in.

This is the seat that he was representing since 1999. It has been

Plaid throughout devolution. Sean Jones challenging. Let's go to

Neath. Lots of counting going on. What exactly has been counted there?

At the moment what is happening behind the IS papers had been

arriving in the last hour so. -- is that the papers. The vote tally with

the papers. I don't think outing was the cover some time yet. We are

expecting any results from two o'clock three o'clock in the

morning. There are camps for the Neath constituency. They will be

getting a new Assembly mother. The Labour candidate Jeremy Miles is

hoping to replace her. Gwenda Thomas had a big majority last time. It

will be a big surprise if Labour don't... Also the Aberavon

constituency. So, we are not expecting huge surprises here but a

health warning, the last time I said there would be no surprises. Gower

was lost to the Conservatives for Labour. They won by just 27 votes.

When I said don't expect any surprises don't listen to me.

Something to watch is Plaid Cymru and how they do in Aberavon. Bethan

Jenkins is standing there and she is well-known in the area. She has been

very involved in the discussions about the steel industry. Will that

help boost the of Plaid Cymru? The steel crisis has dominated this

election campaign. The future of the steelworks in Port Talbot. The

steelworks dominate the skyline. It has dominated the campaign. We have

had visits from Carwyn Jones and Jeremy Corbyn. We have had Sajid

Javid and David Cameron. The don't normally see this in an election

campaign for the Welsh Assembly. 4000 jobs are at risk in Port Talbot

if a buyer can't be found for the steelworks. Not just the 4000

workers but the 4000 families who depend on them. Everything a job in

Port Talbot supports for others in the area, so the future as in really

keen and difficult to avoid in this election campaign, will that have

had an effect on the votes? We will find out. We expect they consider it

see results sometime after two o'clock this way. They'll also

announced the regional vote for South Wales West much later. But due

to around 6am. Whatever happens we will be here. We'll be still going.

We will be on air to about 915 tomorrow morning. We can't quite

believe that it will be. Let's go to Rachel in Swansea. Lots of counting

behind you. There is. Welcome to Swansea leisure centre. We have

three counts going on here. Swansea West to my left. Swansea East to my

right. You can't quite say the weather but we have got Gower. It

has picked up a bit there. It was quiet earlier on but it is going

strong now. Gower is the seat we are all really excited about. If you

cast your mind back 12 months to the General Election it was Byron Davies

the Tory candidate who'd turned over that seat by 27 votes. It was one of

the big shocks of the General Election and that is what the Tories

are hoping to do in the Gower again tonight. It is certainly got all the

makings of a very juicy electoral drama. We have got the political big

hitter Edwina Hart standing down. She has been in the Assembly since

day one. Standing down from her ministerial seat for the economy.

Then we have got the young and ambitious Labour candidate Rebecca

Evans and the major challenger, the Conservative Lyndon Jones. Rebecca

Evans has certainly got the pedigree. She knows what it is like

to be an AM. She has held the seat in the last Assembly term and she

was the last member of the worst government. She isn't going to want

to be the person who loses Gower for Labour. Then we have got Lyndon

Jones. He is putting some serious heat on Rebecca Evans. He and his --

and Byron Davies have looked up. They are almost like a political

band of brothers and they have been treading the pavements and hitting

the doorsteps of the Gower. They are wanting to turn over that seat with

the Conservatives and they feel that this seat is ripe for the taking. I

did touch base with the Tory camp earlier today. The word that they

used was serious potential for this seat to be turned over. On the other

hand the Labour side, they are saying they don't see the same

momentum for the Conservatives in the Gower that they did in the

Westminster election, but they acknowledge it could well be close.

In contrast we have the seeds of Swansea East and Swansea West. Both

Labour seats since the start of this family. Mike Hedges in the east and

Julie James in the West. Both going again to keep their seats. If you

scoured the country defines the voters who are least interested in

politics and most apathetic, it was in Swansea West and Swansea East

that you would find yourself. They had the lowest turnout in the

Assembly elections last time round is. Swansea East was the lowest.

Swansea West the second lowest. It is a really tough draw to be a

candidate in these constituencies. You're going to find it very

difficult when you're out hitting those doorsteps and you are not

likely to get an offer of coffee and biscuits. It is going to kick a very

brave political analyst to predict anything other than a Labour double

here. But who knows? There we go. We are hearing that potentially an

8-10% swing for the Tories in Gower. David is waiting for us in

Westminster. Keeping an eye on 2500 seats and councils were Ross

England. And a London mayor. There is all sorts of voting going on in

England. Yes. It is quite complicated. You have got the Police

and Crime Commissioner is in the rest of England outside London and

Greater Manchester. In London you have got it big contest to succeed

Boris Johnson as mayor. It has been a bruising campaign there. Then you

have got more than 120 councils across England electing something

like 2700 councillors, seats that were last fought four years ago in

what was quite a good year for Labour. Quite a challenge for Jeremy

Corbyn. Eight months into his leadership. To see if he can make

games tonight or at least make what you might call respectable losses.

He said two days ago that he didn't expect to lose seats, but the

analysis of some of the by-elections in councils that have been done this

year suggested Labour could lose 150 seats. Any more and it would be a

very bad night with them. There will be some anxious faces I suspect in

Labour HQ as the results come in. What are you hearing about the

performance of UKIP? It is early days but in places like Sunderland

and the north-east of England they have been polling quite well.

Certainly I don't think Nigel Farage expects to take control of many

councils tonight, but for him this is all about a springboard ahead of

the vote in six weeks' time, that referendum. If he can establish such

bridgehead in Wales and also poll reasonably respectably even in some

parts of Scotland, some of the early word suggestions are of that UKIP

are doing rather better than you might think. He will see that is

quite a solid base to build the wider Brexit case for the referendum

on June 23. Thank you very much. I think we can speak to Mark Reckless,

candidate for UKIP. You're very hopeful tonight that you will be in

Cardiff Bay? Good evening. I have only seen a little bit of the camp

so far but I have been looking at boxes coming in from Newport East

and what I have seen so far is it looks like it might be a little bit

better than the General Election. Very encouraging so far. But I have

only seen two or three boxes being counted today. There is a poll

predicting, for what it is worth, usual caveats, putting you at eight

seats. Your leader put it that five earlier in the campaign. It would be

an extremely good night for you, wouldn't it?

Target was five, trying to get one person elected in each region, if we

go up to... Let alone had... I think that sounds optimistic and would be

spectacular, but if we get above five, we would be absolutely

delighted, it would be quite some breakthrough. The Newport East,

maybe it's our policy on scrapping the seven tolls... But it's

encouraging. I believe that Ukip may make that breakthrough. If you do

and you are in the assembly, will you focus on bread and butter

issues, the economy or is it the big gamble and the big game to talk

about Europe? -- Severn. I think it's the first 6-7 weeks after the

assembly election, we have referendum on EU membership pending

and that was the initial raison d'etre of Ukip and we will be

fighting very hard. Getting a breakthrough into the assembly with

numbers of assembly members has to help us on that side of the campaign

but the focus will be long-term on public services, health,

education... Scrapping the Severn tools, and we will be constructive

and engaged trying to improve public services. You make a habit of this

is a party, getting elected to things you want to scrap, like the

EU, the Welsh Assembly which you seem to want to keep at the moment,

but forever? Do you want to have more powers? We want to scrap the

European Parliament, or at least get the British MEPs out of that. But we

will have a constructive approach... Like many people in Wales, almost

half the population who voted back in 97, we didn't initially supported

the assembly but in 2011 there was another boat, a larger margin for

more powers and we accept that result and we will work with

devolution as people have voted for constructively. What we oppose

tax-raising powers being devolved, not least because the Cardiff Bay

established in party said in 2011 that a yes vote would not mean

tax-raising powers but now they are going back their word, planning to

take tax-raising powers without asking the people's permission and

Ukip think that is wrong. We July to lead the in Wales? No. -- we July to

lead? That is a clear answer, not the politician's answer. Let's go to

another candidate, Elin Jones, former assembly member, she is an

account in Llanelli, how is it looking? -- she is in the count.

It's been quite a fight, very positive campaign, both of the major

parties working really hard. We are very happy, with the response we

have had on the doorsteps and the numbers of supporters who then be

contacted them today, confirmed they went out to vote. Turnout is always

an issue in assembly elections but I think tonight, we are optimistic

that nothing is in the bag. Is it that tight? That is what your

intelligence is telling you? It's very difficult to say, we know the

response we are getting from our supporters but we can't be clear

what our opponents are getting from there is, my feeling is that there

will be if you hundreds votes in it either way, because of the sheer

strength of the campaign and the hard work going in on both sides but

we will see. And you should take Llanelli, it is your top target, you

need a tiny swing of 0.15%? It would be a disappointment if you did not

take it. Obviously, it would be a disappointment, I wouldn't be

pitting myself forward to fight the seat again if I didn't think we

could win. We have certainly put in all the work that we possibly can

locally, we are benefiting from the positive momentum from the national

campaign of polite company, growing in the last two weeks of this

campaign, if we are not successful, I think for we are at the moment,

it's optimistic but not feeling that anything is in the bag. -- Plaid

Cymru. Thank you, we will stick to later, no doubt. Let's cross to Paul

Heaney and we are hearing it is close in Blaenau Gwent... So far,

difficult to say but the talk thus far, not many of the ballots counted

is of a straight fight between Labour and Plaid Cymru. Alan Davies,

the sitting assembly member and a prospective candidate used to be

part of the Welsh government, very well-known in Welsh Labour, has a

huge majority here, Labour would have to lose a huge number of votes

for them to lose the seat, but the talks so far is Labour against Plaid

Cymru, Plaid Cymru saying they are getting support on the doorstep but

they are cautious, not predicting any kind of major upset. The votes

being counted in the historic building that used to be the general

offices of the Birkdale steelwork, talk not of steel but of local

issues, jobs and health. Paul, thank you. Let's cross to Carl Sargeant,

who awaits us, former big figure in the Labour Government... Good

evening. What you hearing? Good evening. It's looking OK here in

North Wales, the team working incredibly hard ride across North

Wales. And across Wales. Under the leadership of Carwyn Jones I think

we will be able to deliver and I'm confident looking for the next

government for Welsh Labour. The poll suggesting 27 seat, it's only a

poll, would you be happy? The poll as a poll, ask me the question at

the end of the night when we have all the results. We should be

optimistic, it's been a tough election but we have fought very

hard, the troops on the streets knocking door by daughter and we are

getting good results, but let's wait until the end of the night. We are

hearing the Conservatives are pretty confident in places like Wrexham,

Vale of Clwyd... Is that what you are hearing? Not at all. I have

heard lots of things about the Conservatives, that they've said to

me in the past but I don't believe a word of it. I think Kevin and Leslie

have done a great job in those areas, I am optimistic we will hold

those seats across North Wales. Thank you very much. Richard... What

do you make of what we have heard so far and the little tips you are

getting? This is the point in the evening that we talked to sources

most involved in politics... Spotters football teams... They

divide into two categories, the natural pessimists who start from...

I am not sure they are pleasantly surprised, and people who think they

will win 5-0 and at the moment I'm talking to people in all parties,

some of whom... You play fantasy but all is well? I will not talk about

football... But I am talking about people in the Labour Party, we heard

from Carl Sargeant being very buoyant about the north-east, other

people in the Labour Party far less sure and people in the Conservative

Party incredibly buoyant and others around the country who are less

cautious. It is the brand, they are probably still tallying the votes.

We have to have something to talk about. Some of the boxes will not

have arrived at some of the counting stations, these are very early

indicators. Make... You are getting lots of texts and tweets? It is that

danger territory. Some observations in terms of the interviews that

we've done, I thought Helen Mary Jones wasn't necessarily downbeat

that didn't appear overly confident. I think that was very obvious. A

typical, sort of... Sword of bruising performance from Carl

Sargeant... But Meijers is the word you're looking for Xtra-vision Mark

pugnacious... I have had a number of talks with him. And he has kept with

a bad line all the way through. Clearly... The Conservatives are

talking about Wrexham in particular, I've had so many conversations with

him, Andrew Atkinson, the candidate who whittled down the majority, the

Labour majority in Wrexham in the general election, he is up against

Lesley Griffiths, they are talking that up. Final observation, I

thought very interesting interview with Andrew RT Davies, when Richard

fitted to him about the vagaries of the list system, if they do very

well and pick-up Arsenal seats, he could be out of a job, that is the

answer, back to the farm. He seemed relaxed. We are only guessing, but

the support for the Conservatives, moving on to the constituencies and

therefore they drop off the list, they might have no more games, they

might have made losses. Used to be talking about the electoral system

earlier but these are the vagaries of the systems. We could see these

very interesting developments in the constituencies, the interest negated

by what happens... The Conservatives in particular, in a position where

all of the prospective gains would lead to them losing a list seat on

the current bold predictions. -- the current poll projections. It could

go backwards in assembly group, it could be possibly smaller. I promise

we will come back to that, I know you love the various systems, we

will get onto that. I do not love them, that is the issue.

Let's go to Felicity. Thank you, last time you left us, we spoke to

David Bevan about what it was like for a small party trying to fight

this campaign and David, you explained it was difficult to get

attention and get the message out there but in terms of the meat of

your argument, this is a very old for you are fighting, that has gone

now, hasn't it? The talk of abolition of the Welsh Assembly. I

don't think it has. The general public have been told that it was

gone, all four and over again and if you are measuring the slippage down

from 49 points 7% of the vote down to whatever it might be now,

people... A lot of people have given up and there wasn't a party in place

that those who opposed the assembly could fix their allegiance to. They

lost hope. Now... There has been a second referendum, on further

powers, which was one, to be. There was still 30% against more powers.

33%, whatever you like... I can tell you this, David would be better off

running a campaign, abolish Westminster... Jonathan, from Plaid

Cymru, thank you, we will get your comments in a moment. You had a

referendum, second referendum, that had a convincing majority for

further powers for the Assembly, in successive balls on the subject

support for the Assembly has built and built, the last poll for BBC

Wales showed 13% of those questioned were interested in talking about

abolishing it. 6% in favour of an independent Wales and we are worried

and I think a lot of people who would be natural supporters, we are

worried that this is a salami slice process, we are even told that

devolution was not an event, it was a process, and it will go on. It is

causing trouble now, and... In what way? I think... They have failed in

their main areas of responsibility, health, education, jobs and part of

the reason they have is because... The United Kingdom is quite an

integrated system. And when you start slicing it up into little

bits, it doesn't work so well. Aren't you confusing the government

with the institution? It's a basic error, isn't it? I don't think it's

an error, I do put the two together. OK, thank you. Jonathan Edwards from

Plaid Cymru... I know you are keen to comment on that but the point

that David makes about turnout, is a serious point. We have seen turnout

dropping in successive assembly elections, does that suggest the

institution does not cultivate the level of confidence and active

support that it should? There's an argument we could do with more

exciting politics. But no, successive opinion polls clearly

indicate the people of Wales want more sovereignty over their daily

lives, we have had many commissions, outlining detailed analysis that

people want four more powers, control being decided Adam or level,

faith in Westminster is falling. And you know, we have to realise, that

the UK is a rapidly changing place, events in Scotland... Wales is not

immune to that, the trajectory of travel is only one way and if I was

a member of one of the unionist parties I would be arguing for a

Federal or confederal settlement to deal with this issue once and for

all. If we take that approach, I think the forces, as my party want

independence, that will prevail. Carwyn Jones, Stephen, has called

for a convention to discuss the constitution of the wider UK, thus

far haven't seen it, what do you make of Jonathan Edwards point that

perhaps without some cohesive attempt at a lasting settlement,

those in favour of independence will gradually cease supporting?

I think Carwyn Jones was right to call for a Constitutional

Convention. I would like to see clear delineation of

responsibilities between departments and Westminster 's and local

government. Through Police and Crime Commissioner is into the mix. We

have got a whole new set of responsibilities. The UK is

changing. Someone has grown up with the Assembly and it is here to stay.

It has done a great job. It is made our democracy and community here was

stronger. They need to stop treating Wales as a second-class nation. Look

at the powers from Northern Ireland and Scotland. We are a poor

relation. In terms of that conversation, we have seen a lot of

argy-bargy over the Wales Bill and the extent to which it does offer a

respectful and lasting settlement for Wales. We have a relatively new

Secretary of State for Wales who will be on the programme in the wee

small hours of this morning who has responsibility for steering that

through but we also have a pause in that Bill. What is your hope how the

new Assembly government can work with the Conservative government in

London to try to get a settlement on that front? It is a question of when

and the detail has obviously been worked out with the new Secretary of

State. It's think it should take time to make sure he gets it right.

It is about respect on both sides of the M4. It is important they work

together for the benefit of Wales and the Welsh people. It is

important that on the doorstep I don't hear people arguing about how

many powers the Assembly have got, they argue about health, education

and elderly care. They don't argue about the constitutional settlement

that Wales has and I think it is really important to remember that

when in Cardiff Bay this might care about this but it is not the big

thing that affects people's daily lives. If we don't talk about the

big issues on the doorstep, health, we spend too much time talking about

what the institution looks like, we lose the people. It is important we

bring everybody along with us and everybody feels this is their

representation, that they come to vote and if we have a low turnout

today that will be a sad reflection upon that engagement. Cage talks

about respect but don't forget, it was a line between life and death

and the NHS and whatever debate there was about health... It doesn't

reflect the sort of respect they should be between a UK and Welsh

Government. We have to accept the Assembly is here to stay. The mighty

disagreement about politics. I don't think the inflammatory language

improves democracy. I would tend to respectively disagree. Let's bring

Alice Phillips in for UKIP. What brought UKIP around ultimately to

accepting the Assembly and deciding, as Mark Reckless said to us just a

few minutes ago, that the party will be a constructive force within the

Assembly? I lived through this because I started my career at UKIP

in Wales at the time this party was very split. It was recognised very

quickly it wouldn't make any sense whatsoever to demand a referendum on

membership of the EU and then suggest that the referendum that

that happened for devolution in Wales will somehow invalid. I think

there should be a Welsh Assembly. It has a critical role in delivering

good governance to the people of Wales. I would say it is not doing

that. Our big concern at the moment is the very nature of devolution

itself. They have got an Assembly in Cardiff Bay which is wanting to

increasingly centralised powers. It is looking to merge local

authorities and split powers away from them and bring them back into

the middle, replaced the work that councillors do by boosting the

number of AMs and I don't think that is right. The desert -- not about

adding another structure of government, it is about giving the

power down the ladder to those people. That is our big concern. We

don't think that the Assembly has done a good job since devolution.

That needs to be looked at whether it is education, health, the economy

and so forth before they start having an appetite to get more

control. I will bring Jenny Willott in because she hasn't had a chance

to say anything. The Liberal Democrats are always very

pro-devolution, but you must have fears that your voice will be lost

in the next Assembly, given what the polls are suggesting. How do the

Liberal Democrats make themselves heard in this debate and indeed all

the other debates? Do you worry about that? The Liberals and Liberal

Democrats have been campaigning on devolution for many years. The

discord of the DNA of the party. It is fundamental for everything. -- it

is the core. It is a really important way as how we see the

world as a party and see how decisions should be made. I think

Alexandra made an important point. The Welsh Assembly the way the

Labour runs it is very centralising. One area the Lib Dems have been

pressing on for quite a number of years is the fact that a number of

issues and areas of responsibility that our default in local

authorities to England are much closer to the people whose lives

they are affecting in Wales, they go to the Assembly and Labour hold some

right to the centre and they don't get devolved further to communities.

I think that is an issue with Labour and the way that they run the

Assembly, not an issue with whether or not the Assembly should exist in

itself and what should be devolved to the Assembly. I think we need to

start having more of a debate about how in Wales where decision should

be made and not just assume that they should be made in Cardiff in

the Assembly and that that is also the most appropriate place. The

major systems it is not. Stephen Doughty, they are suggesting you're

not enough pro-devolution. We are the party of devolution and we

brought that about and we have ambitious plans. About UKIP, there

is a slight disingenuity about the UKIP agenda. The reality is Mark

Reckless admitted at himself, he said he wanted to get a bridgehead

in Wales that they can use to pursue their agenda. Why else would MPs

stand if you want to go in Rochester and Strood, a former Tory stood in

Kent suddenly standing with people like Neil Hamilton. They're not

interested in Wales. They are not interested in the Assembly. That is

entirely false. We have got comprehends of manifesto that looks

at all aspects of governance. We will talk about this in due course,

I promise. Now, time to go back to Bethan. Thank you. We will be back

on the silver very shortly. Results are coming in and not from Wales but

the English councils. We have got the bug four results in. Labour

holding Newcastle no surprise there. On BBC Radio Wales we are seeing

some pictures of the counting going on there. It is very busy over the

teams that Labour have held Newcastle upon Tyne and that the

Conservatives have held Tunbridge Wells. Those results coming in. It's

something to talk about. What is interesting about those results is

what is going on under the surface. Most of these councils defer,

deferred, deferred. Dramatic change is unlikely. What I am looking for

in particular in areas like the north-east is how well UKIP is

doing, for example. From what I can see from the little we have seen so

far, UKIP are doing respectively but not spectacularly. Labour are still

picking of Lib Dem seats. The Lib Dem decline in local government does

appear to be continuing. But it is really early days. It is very early

days. We will be heading back to see how Jason's fantasy football team is

coming on. We have got a goalkeeper. Who is next? A seed Leighton Andrews

on the table there. Wait till we see would you have got to you. Some

central defenders to shorter. Let's have a chat about education. You

might but this Paul Hennessy. From educating Cardiff. Good evening to

you all. A win, we will come onto the fantasy team very shortly. As

somebody who has been heavily involved in education in Wales by

many years, which political party in this election campaign has spoken to

you most passionately about education? I think everyone of them

some interesting ideas in the match there still. We didn't discuss that

much for various reasons. Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats but

the trouble and centre in terms of the key policies. Had forces. I

think probably those two, everyone had something. We didn't have the

debate we would've liked to have seen. I remember talking to Kirsty

Williams on the radio and when she was taking calls from listeners,

everything is about education for her. It was a key pledge. It has

always been a key pledge for the Lib Dems going into an election. Class

sizes is a key one for parents and grandparents. And teachers. When we

have meetings whenever I discussed the teachers, it always comes up. It

has been of the political agenda for some time until the Lib Dems put it

back. It caught the imagination more than we see others. Aimee, dubbed

between under the table but why do you want me -- why'd you want to be

a teacher? I want them to have the opportunity to make a change as a

person in a career that I love. Do you feel you will have the backing

from whichever government is formed in Cardiff Bay? And he heard enough

from the future possible AMs of Wales to convince you it is the

right career path? I think so. Labour policies were good. Putting

more money into education is brilliant. And the Plaid stand is

great in Wales. I don't think they get the appreciation they deserve.

Paul, you became a big TV set. Where are you teaching now? I am now down

in the limelight in Neath and Port Talbot. A small special needs

school. Are they watching this evening? Possibly not. They will

give me a right ribbing in the morning. In the staff room, what

have people been saying about the election campaign? Personally, the

manifesto itself, they have all been saying some other stuff, no clear

definitive ideas. They all mentioned coding, changing of the curriculum.

Emphasis on foreign languages. As we said earlier, Lib Dem bringing back

pupil premiums. Class sizes. The coal face that is what matters. How

will they fund the things? If you've got a class of 30 and you take it

down to 25, where is the funding coming from and what will happen to

the extra kids? It is all very nice in the policies and the manifestos

but I would like to see how it happens.

Other things, we have got kids coming in, up late at night, the

Xbox culture. Obesity problems in primary schools. It is the whole

picture that is counting towards secondary school and it is becoming

harder. What about behaviour? It is different to when you and I may have

been in school when the teacher might grab you by the year. That is

long gone and you don't want to go back to those days. Low-level

disruption is difficult because you're trying to get their point

across and the constant disruption is niggling and it goes back to if

you haven't had a good nights sleep and you go onto the radio this

morning it affects concentration. You're an adult and you can adapt to

that but it doesn't happen kids. A win, your experience at looking at

the political landscape, are you convinced they are the right people,

they are well educated enough in education to send a policy to a

future teacher? What has been really good in the

last Assembly term is that we now have Pioneer schools that we are

looking at developing so hopefully we will see the big picture policies

developed by the profession. That depends on what new government comes

in and what changes happen but as the work is ongoing a lot of the

manifestos showed continuity in that style of thinking. I like to believe

that whoever comes in, the Assembly members we have, they will trust the

people to impose these policies. Do you get tired of opposition

politicians going into television and radio studios saying just look

at our performance because when you look at it, come August when the

A-level and GCSE results come out, Wales is performing pretty well.

Exactly, it depends what measure and metrics you are looking at but I

think the profession as a whole are tired of that kind of talk. Of

course any opposition party rightfully and they should

scrutinise the accountability of government and actually I think

teachers accept that their profession is held accountable, it

is a public service. Hand-in-hand with improving standards is working

with the profession and showing respect for it. Maybe that is

something that has changed in the last four years, we have instilled a

bit more respect and how the politicians and the media are

discussing teaching and long may that continue. One final question on

education, looking forward, you are going to hopefully have a glittering

career in front of a classroom and have a wonderful career in teaching,

a bit like this man has had here, but if there are politicians

watching tonight, where ever they may be, they may be in the studio

next door, what would be your key message to them, given the fact that

you are a young person, committed to the profession and you want to make

a difference? I think just make education matter, make education a

main priority for them, because it is a priority for everybody, it is a

priority for children so make education matter. Good stuff. That

is the business done so now we can have fun. We are looking at

defenders, I know you are sporty, we have Leighton Andrews who is

well-connected with education. Andrew RT Davies and Nathan Gill,

the leader of Ukip in Wales. We are looking for commanding defenders. We

are not sure whether Nathan Gill will play in Europe. Is Nathan

Andrews a contender for a left back, right back or central defender. You

could probably see him on the flanks, he is not backward in coming

forwards. Particularly on the left-hand side. Ambitious, he would

get into the box. He would lead from the front so he is more shouting

orders. What do you think of Andrew RT Davies? I think he is a tough

guy. He looks like he could head a ball. Judging by his cutout, I think

that Nathan is quite tall so he could be a centre half. Politically

I think it would be Ukip and the conservative that would work

together. But he has to be on the team sheet! I am not selecting.

Nathan is in as a central defender. I can't see Labour working with Ukip

so I have two be the Tories. So we have gone for Andrew RT Davies and

Nathan Gill as our two central defenders. If I was a striker for

the other side, I wouldn't mess with those. Let us hope that Andrew RT

Davies doesn't find us here! He will. We also have labour in gold

so we are balanced. Let us go down to the bay and the Magic carpet. I

have left the carpet for a moment and I want to talk to you about the

opinion poll that came out this evening. We will get a health

warning out of the way. Our colleagues at BBC Wales and Cardiff

University asked many people online who had already voted so there is

margin for error here and these things are experimental but having

contained -- considered that it is still an opinion poll that is out on

the day of the election which is exciting for you and me and our

party leaders will also be excited. Here they are, the five main party

leaders, unveiling our 30 foot high banners here. What kind of evening

will it be for the party leaders? The share of the vote according to

the opinion poll for each party, in terms of the constituencies, we're

not looking at the regions right now, just the constituencies and

that is important and I will explain why in a moment. Carwyn Jones for

the Labour Party in Wales is on 33% of the vote according to this

opinion poll. A disappointing night for them, but that is as low as they

have gone in any other Assembly Election. Then we reach our --

Andrew RT Davies for the Conservatives and they are in second

place on the constituency share of the vote, a lot lower than they were

in 2011. What will that mean in terms of the share of the vote and

the number of seats that they get? They have pushed Plaid Cymru into

third place in terms of the constituency seats. They are

actually ahead of the Conservatives when it comes to the regional seats,

according to this opinion poll, and that is important and I will tell

you why in a moment. Then we come to Ukip, Nathan Gill's party. A good

night for them according to the opinion poll. 16% is an increase

from the 13% in the general election across Wales which would give them a

few seats in the Assembly. I will show you more on that in a second.

It is a disappointing evening for the Liberal Democrats who go down to

8% of the constituencies according to this poll, worse than they have

had in any of the other Assembly Election is so Kirsty Williams will

have a difficult evening according to the opinion poll this evening.

What does this translate into in seats? Once we have considered the

regional seats and the constituency seats, this is how it looks in my

birchwood chamber, let us open up the floor. It shows you

unsurprisingly that Labour are the largest party on 27, three down on

where they were in 2011. If you look at my winning line here, the white

line, that is the winning line which crosses into a majority government,

said they are still short of that one. Waste important that Plaid

Cymru were ahead of the Conservatives on the regional vote?

It means that they have 12am is in yellow, not green, bear that in

mind, they are now ahead of the Conservatives because they are ahead

of the Conservatives who have 11 according to the opinion poll. . We

have a new block here, the purple block according to the opinion poll

of eight Ukip members. It is the first time we would see Ukip members

in the Assembly which would change the nature of the debate on how

things would go there. Some people said they would not be there at all

but the Lib Dems are holding on with two AMs. There would still be a

number of people in the Assembly but if they go under three they would

not actually be an official group according to the opinion poll. That

is how it would look but let us get rid of that just for a moment and

see how that would look according to how the next government would be

made up. I have my new toy here, looking at how and where the

government would come from. Labour with 27, could actually go it alone.

Here is the threshold to gain an overall majority, you need 31 to get

your votes through and your programme of government and your

policies through. So, where are we? They are four short? Could they draw

on the Liberal Democrats, as they have done in the early days of the

Assembly? Not really, that would give them 29. They would still be

too short of the overall majority, so we will get rid of them and they

might have to turn to Plaid Cymru as they did in 2007. That would give

them 39 which crosses the majority line, but how much appetite is there

among those members to go into any sort of formal deal or coalition? I

think time will tell. There was another option which is very

unlikely which is maybe these parties could work together, but if

you look at the political spectrum contained in this little space here

in terms of difference of opinion and policy and personality and

ideologies, that is probably a little bit of a long shot so it will

probably be a combination there are now thereabouts at this opinion is

true, but we haven't counted the votes and we don't how it will go

but it is certainly food for thought. Thank you very much. We

will be back with you shortly. Does your opinion reflect that poll?

Fascinating figures there. The real significance in a way is that even

with Liberal Democrat support, if Labour don't get an overall

majority, they have been very successful in the last five years

getting their budgets through without an overall majority and of

Plaid Cymru or labour and using it as a negotiating tactic. If we get

figures like this it puts Plaid Cymru in a very powerful position,

they are the only realistic party that the Labour Party can go to for

support. Very briefly a couple of sources I have spoken to say they

don't necessarily relieve all the briefings they are getting from the

Conservatives for the marginal seats in North Wales, but nevertheless

Labour are bracing themselves for a tough night. We will go straight to

one of those seats in North Wales that we were talking about. Andy

Atkinson is the Conservative candidate for Wrexham. Thank you

very much for joining us. What are you hearing? Is it looking hopeful

for you? I hope so. I haven't had a chance to really see how the land

lies down there but it looks OK, it looks good, it has been really

promising on the doorstep all day today with our vote looking really

solid so it is hoping that it translates into votes. That would be

quite a coup in Wrexham. It would be a swing of 9% if you got in which

would be a very good night for you. It would be a very good night,

absolutely phenomenal. I hope that it can happen and it is a case of

waiting and seeing so when I go down we will hope to get a clearer

picture of what is happening. What is emerging in the speculation at

least is that if you make the games on the constituency level, you will

lose them all on the list so it is half a dozen of one and half a dozen

of the other so you might not make much headway. Possibly, we may, we

may not. It is an interesting system but I think we could make some

really good gains across north-east Wales which means we have to wait

and see as the votes stack up downstairs in the piles grow and we

will get a real picture of who can actually do it but I think there has

been a very strong feeling on the doorstep that people don't want

Labour again, that they are ready for change. It has been 17 years too

long and it is time for change so it is just a case whether that has come

across to the ballot box. It is a low turnout election. What has been

coming out on the doorstep? Is it a health and education and bread and

butter stuff? Absolutely. Health was always the big one and there have

been very key local issues that I have been involved with and my plans

to regenerate the town centre and those bread-and-butter issues but it

has always been health above everything else. People are ready

for change and deserve better want better want somebody to deliver the

health service and the health priority that they want and they

deserve. One theory going around tonight is that you could make some

gains on the constituency but luge will ease as you did in 2011 when

you made gains but lost Nick Ward but it would be huge loss if you

lost Andrew RT Davies, would it? I have a lot of faith in him and I

think he is a fantastic leader and a lot of people in his know that. I

think we will have him roaring away in the Senedd next week and bleeding

from the front. Do you think you will be there to? I hope so, if I am

I will get the copy them. Thank you very much. It is very early still,

isn't it, but what picture is emerging so far? Nothing! Well,

actually, yes, we need the results. There are very interesting results

coming out of Scotland. We started the programme by mentioning that the

battle for second place was a very live one and the battle for fourth

one -- fourth-place was a very live one in Scotland. The battle for

second place is between the Conservative Party and labour and it

is still hard to imagine Labour battling with the Conservatives to

be the second party behind the dominant SNP. This is an interesting

battle because it is not about the Conservatives doing politically --

particularly well. There has been a lot of hype around Ruth Davidson,

the Conservative leader, but what is happening is their support is

remaining pretty stagnant but Labour is plummeting down and there are now

reports that Labour could be third in Glasgow. I am going to repeat

that. That is phenomenal. It is possible that Labour could be third

in Glasgow. It also appears that the Greens could eclipse the Scottish

Liberal Democrats which would be really desperate for the Scottish

Liberal Democrats and the Liberal Democrats as a party. You will

recall during the Coalition Government that the phalanx of

Scottish Liberal Democrats MPs was really important in terms of that

Coalition Government and it was a sizeable chunk of the Liberal

Democrat group in Westminster and if they are now falling behind the

Greens in Scotland than it would be another humiliation for them and

frankly your Greece are not good in Wales either. Also very quickly, in

terms of London, I think we are all aware, even though we have been

concentrating on Wales, that the battle in London has turned quite

nasty and we are now seeing some recriminations from senior

Conservatives, saying the attacks on Labour's candidate went too far so I

think we will hear much more in terms of recriminations around the

London mayoral contest. Sadiq Khan was connected to extreme Islamic

sentiment and senior people said that went too far so we need to

watch that space as well. Back to knit, in terms of turnout we have

nothing yet, no guesses but predictions during the campaign and

warnings from people like Andrew RT Davies that it could be the lowest

ever for an Assembly Election, is that what we are looking at? At 42%

five years ago and it was a feature of the campaign. It was not just

people like me talking about it, you had the leader of the Welsh

Conservatives pointing to the backdrop of the EU referendum and

that casts such a long shadow and it was difficult for the parties to cut

through. I have to have some sympathy on that front. I remember

out on the campaign, this happened a number of times, I would ask people

what they thought of the Assembly campaign and who they were going to

support and I would get a response saying they were a Brexit man. They

didn't hear the question, it was just that the EU campaign was

dominating so much in terms of the pub compensations and, of course,

the UK media out there. I don't think the political parties

can escape for responsibility, it is up to them to create policies that

can infuse and engage people, and the turnout will be a reflection of

that. We are getting some indication of the turnout in Scotland? Again,

these are very, very early indications and I am loathed to put

too much weight onto them. But the indications are that the turnout is

up in Scotland. That wouldn't be a surprise. We have seen remarkable

process in Scotland since the spring of 2014, when the independence

referendum arguments became a general societal conversation in

Scotland. We have seen tens of thousands of people in Scotland join

political parties, there has been a remarkable politicisation of

Scottish society. I would be very surprised if the turnout isn't

higher in Scotland. We have some pictures now of Neil Hamilton, one

of the big names of Ukip. He is at the Llanelli count. He is the former

MP for Ukip, and a former minister as well. He is hoping to get into

the national Assembly. A very controversial choice as a candidate,

he didn't go down well with everybody in the party. He was the

joys that was made, and he admitted that perhaps he wouldn't have made

it quite like that -- he said he was the choice that was made. Neil

Hamilton returned likely if these polls are right. He will be an

Assembly Member if the polls are right, but we do not know yet. Let's

go to match riches in Llandudno. Lots of counts going on there, Matt.

-- Matt Richards. I think Aberconwy seems to be the closest race we will

have of the two counts going on here. It was recently held by Janet

Finch-Saunders of the Conservative body. Aberconwy has changed hands

every single election, it has been held previously by both Plaid and

Labour, all of those parties in the running. Included West, we have

Daniel Miller from the Conservatives. -- in Clwyd West. It

is more of a fight for second place between Plaid the Labour Party. It

is a family affair in Clwyd West. Daniel Miller for the Conservatives

is competing against his brother-in-law, David Edwards, who