Assembly Election Part 2 Election 2016: Wales

facing a tough job. I think that interview reflects that. Thank you,

Nick. We will go straight to Jason, who was on the sofas in the Spin

Room. Thank you, Beth Allen. We have done health and education and the

economy. And we have done a general overview of the Assembly election

campaign. Now we are going to dive into the European Union with three

young people who have got very strong views on the EU. Very good

evening to Ali Al Hassan, who is an undecided voter. You are studying...

Dentistry at Cardiff University. Katherine wants to stay in the

university. What are you doing in Cardiff? I'm studying politics, I

should be good on this! At Cardiff University. You should know your

stuff. You are still in school? I am six format Monmouth comprehensive

School. You are very much in favour of leaving the European Union. Why?

For me, the argument is democracy and sovereignty. Democracy in this

country has been 900 years in the making, I don't want to see it

thrown away. This vote is important. We can govern ourselves. Katherine?

Democracy and sovereignty is very important that ultimately the

European Union is a democracy and we vote for our MEPs and I know you

will laugh and what you will see, but we have democratic institutions

ourselves, we have an unelected second state -- chamber and head of

state. I don't think we should write off the EU

because it has issues as its democracy. Our elected branch has

power. It is not a democracy. It is crushing the individual further and

further all the time. You need to look at EU regulation which came out

today. They are 95% more likely to help people quit smoking but they

want to take away the individual liberty because they are a

centralised oligarch and we elect our government here and in the EU

you have no chance of doing that because they are all unelected. Why

have you not made your mind up yet? It is not even a case of that,

initially when the whole debate started coming around I thought I

was going to leave for a lot of the reasons that Nathan has said but

then I switched to staying in one I had a lot of the counterarguments

and it is such a polarised debate and I feel like every point you can

make on one side there is a counterpoint on the other side,

whether you are talking about money you are giving getting back and I

just feel that it is ultimately such a big unknown that the EU and all

the issues affecting it so widespread that it is hard to

comprehend all the same time and an informed decision. That is the case

for me anyway. I was listening to something on the radio yesterday

where some of the people interviewed in a market where saying that they

are frustrated unbelievably by the fact that whenever there is a debate

on the radio the television it is pretty much like these to just

demonstrated on one side says one thing and another side says the

other and that is politics but within that we're losing the

messages and do you think that the in and out campaigns both need to be

clearer with their objectives and goals? Definitely and ultimately I

think most people on the ground are just going to look at their

livelihood and their situations and then vote according to whatever they

think is best on a personal level, rather than looking at the more big

and national issues so if people are against immigration, for example and

free movement within the EU, they might think that we need a change

and we need to move out and England can have a more inclusive sort of

immigration policy for everyone but then at the same time what will

happen with the human rights Bill? What will happen if we trust the

Conservatives to rewrite what we are going to do in regards to that?

There are so many unknowns that in itself might be a reason to stay in

because we would want to stay right now. Nathan, I know you have made

some very strong points and you are in Monmouth and you have made a very

strong point about why you should leave the EU but not too far away

from where you live there are areas of Wales which are some of the most

provide -- deprived areas of Wales which have benefited from the

European Union money. There was a ?12 billion net loss and every piece

of money we get back is UK taxpayer money, it is not European Union

money. The government has said it will maintain the level of

investment put into Wales whether we stay in the European Union or not

and the point of the matter as there is no net benefit in terms of money

we get back from the European Union to Wales and Wales in particular has

a real fallacy about this. We talk about Wales and help the union of --

the European Union gives. Who says about the fallacy? You have to look

at the facts where there is a ?12 billion net loss. Think about places

like the Rhondda and the places that have the European subsidies, are

they better off as a result of the European Union? We don't know, it is

inconclusive but it doesn't look like it. At the same time you said

you don't know and you could also say that Europe provides our big

trading block so when you look at countries like Sweden, how long will

it take out how much effort will it be to negotiate our own trade deals

with whoever and who will come out on top and it is a bit of an

unknown. Do you think ultimately the vote will come down to money, it

will come down to that argument and whether people ultimately will go

with what Nathan is saying, that we don't get the money back or pretty

much like Catherine is saying, that it is well worth every penny we put

into it in terms of trade and security? I think money is paid but

possibly an even bigger issue is people just saying either we need to

change and we want something different, whether it be jumping out

of the pond into something and possibly not even knowing if it will

be a good result or a bad result or just saying, let's stick with what

we have and honestly a lot of people I know who want to leave just say

they want change and want to try something different so that could be

something. Catherine, do you think the intervention of President Obama

was influential in terms of security and prosperity from an economic

trade point of view? Obviously there are two minds as to who should be

involved because it is a purely British debate but if we leave or

not it will affect our relations with other countries and we need to

know how that could affect us in the future and yes President Barack

Obama will not be in power but we need to know how it looks from an

outsider 's point of view because if it will affect us with other

countries and that will affect trade and that will affect other alliances

then we need to know that we need to make an informed decision

based on what we want and also how that will affect our relationships

because otherwise it is not a fully formed union needs to be an open

debate and we need the views from the people and I find it interesting

that as far as I am aware the only two individuals that have come out

on the world stage and said that they think we should leave well

Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump? Does that change your mind? While I

was going to say that Donald Trump was Barack Brett King Brexit which

leads me of way but I am on the fence right now. I am incredibly

thankful for Obama coming here because he has created an effect

where the polls now favour leave rather than in and that has been put

down to him coming here and telling us what to do and I totally agree

that it is his right as an individual and the leader of the

biggest country in the world in terms of economically to come over

here and say that but what he is saying isn't true, it is simply not

true. You don't know that. Why would America do that? It hasn't got a

trade to deal with the EU. We have the former First Minister Rhodri

Morgan waiting to talk to Bethan. We have this football team and we want

midfielders. Who have you got here? Lord Ellis Thomas and I don't want

to back as a midfielder because he is a fan of the European Union and

in midfield unit need to know when to abandon a bad practice, went to

abandon... He is not giving up, is he? Who have you got? I have parrot

from the Lib Dems. I've had a think about this and I feel that her and

her party tend to disappear in the big games so possibly might be

looking for someone else to come on midfield. Who have you got? I have

Jenny Rathbone who is my current AM and she is quite good and she has

done a lot for our constituents I think she would be quite good. Tough

tackling. I would say so. We need to choose to. My vote goes for these

two. Rhodri Morgan is waiting for us. He

is the former First Minister. Good morning. What are you hearing,

especially about a seat where you have been campaigning very hard

alongside your wife in Cardiff North, it is not looking good we are

hearing. Too early to say, they have not started counting yet and they

are still doing the verification and we are looking at the verification.

You get the impression of how sharply divided the constituency is

between the act of areas who seem to be voting heavily for the

conservative than the less prosperous areas which are voting

equally heavily for Labour but the advantage the Conservatives might

have is that they will get a higher turnout because always seem to get a

higher turnout in the more prosperous areas at that sort of

springs it but then it depends on the niggling areas but I have action

at seen much of the little bits of impression that you get of the boxes

coming in from those meddling areas that perhaps might determine it. We

had a quote from Julie Morgan earlier who said she wasn't

confident and on the bigger picture... But she has never

confident! When she is winning she is not confident when she is losing

she not confident. So she is cautious. She is! Looking at the

bigger picture, what sort of night is Labour having right across Wales?

I don't even know how well it is going in Cardiff let alone the rest

of Wales. That is a question that is going miles over Matt Ed, it is

impossible to know I have received no messages at all. Let us play a

guessing game then. You have been First Minister and had a coalition,

at what point, lets hypothesise again, that Labour ends up with 27

or 28, where from your experiences of threshold where you just cannot

go it alone and you need a partner? Well, you use the word coalition of

course if Labour got 30, as I did in 2003, then you don't need a

coalition but when we had 28, halfway through that first Assembly

I decided that a coalition arrangement with the Lib Dems was on

offer and we took the offer and then we had 27 in 2007 and it took a long

time, two months of negotiating and in the end we went for a coalition

with Plaid Cymru but that could have been preceded by the rainbow

coalition or the anybody but Labour coalition and we didn't know if that

was going to happen for the best part of those two months so anything

can happen if you don't have that control of the Assembly by having 30

as your bare majority, but even if you are a bit short of the bare

majority you can still do deals, money and supply or confidence and

supply deals. New Zealand really, and Helen Clark, whipped up the

Westminster rule book and devised all sorts of different methods of

surviving with a PR system of voting very similar to we have and it makes

it very difficult to win a majority and she survived three terms I think

in New Zealand but by ripping up the rule book and just saying that they

do it differently because they have proportional representation and you

have to adjust for that for their rise more than one way of skinning a

cat. We are told that Carwyn Jones has told sky that he accepts he will

have to go into a coalition that you were saying maybe not a formal deal

that he should look at other options before considering a marriage, if

you like? Well, the question is what other parties think of coalitions

and whether other parties would sometimes prefer something looser,

that does not involve them taking up ministerial office but does involve

them getting concessions on certain key policies for them, in return for

guaranteeing they will support Labour and a confidence motion all

on the Budget annually, so that is the other way of doing it and there

are other ways as well. If you look at the New Zealand rule book instead

of the Westminster rule book. Would it be a phone call to Plaid Cymru

straightaway if you were still in charge? I have absolutely no idea,

because we don't know how... The Liberal Democrats vote has collapsed

in some constituencies but they may be doing well in others. How many

Liberal Democrats will there be? Does that leave any alternatives to

Plaid Cymru? We don't know, we have no idea what the shape of the new

Assembly will be. Thank you very much. Let us talk to Adam Price in

Llanelli, and the candidacy is still waiting to hear. Good morning, how

was it going? We have had a terrific campaign here

in Carmarthenshire and we expect to have a positive result, not just

here but for Plaid Cymru across Wales today.

We are just hearing that the line from sky that Carwyn Jones will say

he was considering a coalition is wrong, and is being corrected. There

we go. Adam Price, yes, if, indeed, Labour were to turn out and pick up

the phone and ask Plaid Cymru for some help, would you be interested

in some sort of deal? We haven't got the votes of the seats yet but is it

something you would personally be happy with?

I know we are in that weird sort of intermittent periods jarring

election night, we haven't had a single result in. We are playing

fantasy politics at the moment. Let's not get two steps ahead and

play fantasy politics about the future shape of the Government of

Wales. We made our position very clear during the campaign, narrative

was crystal clear that Wales needs change, that requires change in the

leadership of the government. Certainly I think we have been

strengthened in that opinion by the conversations we have had with the

people of Wales, who are yearning for the kind of leadership that is

so lacking clearly in the Labour Party that has ruled Wales for 17

years. Did that go down well the doorstep? If there is a sense of

change and lots of voters felt that, maybe they didn't think that Plaid

Cymru was the change that is needed, and perhaps Ukip was offering that

change, the Conservatives were offering that change? Well, you

know, it is time for change, that is certainly one of the most effective

slogans in Democratic politics anywhere in the world. And I think

the task that we face was not convincing people of that, because I

think people were with us, they were ahead of us, possibly, in realising

that we need change in terms of the Government of Wales. The task that

Plaid Cymru faced was convincing people we were the vehicle for that

change, and I hope to see the positive results of the effort that

we put in. You know, I'm very proud of the campaign and the way that

Plaid Cymru have bought. It was a very positive campaign, it was an

inspiring campaign at a time when people naturally are alienating to

buy politics, disaffected. I think Plaid Cymru put together a positive

case of a null turner divination that Wales could be -- an

alternative nation that Wales could be if we get the political

leadership that we deserve, hopefully we will see the fruits of

that campaign in positive results for Plaid Cymru across Wales

tonight. You backed Johnny Depp throughout that campaign, of course.

I asked your colleague -- you back to you leader throughout that

campaign. Would you like to lead your party? That is a northern

question, by the way. Leanne Wood emerged as the most popular leader

in Wales. As soon -- at seeing as we are playing fantasy politics, I'll

predict this, she will be the only leader left at the end of this term,

with the positive exception of Kirsty Williams because there is

nobody there left to challenge her! We may get a result very soon and

burn it all becomes very real. Thank you, Adam Price, for joining us.

More fantasy politics. Laura? In terms of coalitions and other deals

available. What is your hunch, would Labour try going into coalition from

past experience? We have to wait and see what the arithmetic is like.

Berrer is a big difference between 2014 -- there is a big difference

between 24 seats and 27 seats. I would say there would be a go at a

minority government, mainly because by Cymru have made it pretty clear

that they are not keen on propping up, going back to our narrative,

propping up a tired Labour government. Not just because of

that, but because there is not only great prize being dangled in front

of Plaid Cymru at this time. It was different last time when there is

the issue of the referendum on legislative powers. There isn't

really anything very obvious that Labour could offer Plaid that would

give it an opportunity to go into government and get something

substantial and emerged in a better shape. People like Adam Price,

actually if you look at his statements over the last year about

coalition, they have been vehemently against that concept. Adam is not

the leader, Leanne Wood is. But I suspect there will be a lot of

pressure on Leanne to resist that initially. Some result from

Scotland. The former leader of the Lib Dems has held onto the Shetland

Islands. The Lib Dems doing paps expected -- perhaps better than

expected in some parts of Scotland. In terms of leadership contests and

personalities, in some ways this has been a presidential campaign, with

certain parties pushing their leaders. How has that gone down on

the doorstep, do you think? We know that people quite like a figure to

look towards. When you then start people working together, if it is to

personality -based that is quite hard. I was just thinking of the

kind of deal system that we might possibly the emerging tomorrow, how

much Labour could work with Plaid. In economic terms, in the intro are

some very big projects that are controversial even within the Labour

Party -- the in tray. For instance, what do we do about the servant

tolls. In those sort of big things that need to be dealt with -- the

servant tolls. -- the servant tolls. It will be interesting to see, these

are ?1 billion projects, some of these. Actually compromising on some

of these is going to be quite tricky. On the M4 Project, which

have a high profile during the campaign, the fact that the champion

of that project is leaving the field if you like, does that mean that

that is off the table now, or slightly removed? She is the

champion of the project ministerial league, but there are many champions

of that project within the private sector who have been shouting and

shouting for a long time. I think sometimes when people compare the

black fruit of the blue route, it is as if they are not very different.

They are very different. The blue route is favoured by Plaid Cymru, a

dual carriageway, not a motorway. It is basically the old steelworks

route that many of us have used around Newport for some time, going

into an urban area. Worries the black fruit is a motorway with --

where as the black fruit is a motorway in an area with very few

people living but still controversial. These are very

different products. If we are going to have a government which has to do

deals with others, projects like that, and others that are equally

controversial, going to be very hard to agree a coffee. We have quite a

few turnout is coming out from Berry is considering seas. I wonder if we

can show you this one, the turnout so far -- various constituencies.

We have some others, too. The Vale of Clwyd is that 43%. Merthyr Tydfil

39%, the list goes on. We were talking about 42% last election,

some of them are. There is certainly a trend that turnout is up on five

years ago -- some of them are up. That count as a lot of the concerns

and the elements of the Assembly election campaign story that many of

us have been reporting on. Actually there have been some people who have

been saying that actually knocking on the doors, Carwyn Jones said this

to me a few days ago, a lot of people were Clwyd up and were aware

of what was going on. And this notion of there being a lower

turnout wasn't being reflected on the doorstep. These are not

spectacularly high turnout figures, it is up marginally, certainly from

the figures I can see. In comparison with five years ago, that was a low

turnout as well. Actually I think these are minuscule increases, let's

not get too excited. If you look back to the first Assembly

elections, the turnout was 46% then. I suspect we might creep up to that

level, but that was before the Assembly had ever existed, there was

no knowledge of what it could do at that point. I suspect if we were to

go back, with some degree of embarrassment, and huge depression I

think that we would be having this discussion five years later. If we

compare the turnout in general elections which are far higher, 70%

sometimes. This gives you the indication of the importance in most

ordinary people's minds of the general elections. If we look back

at that rule campaign, you covered the steel prices intensely. What

role did that play -- steel crisis. There are two sides to this

discussion. There was that actual thing of, what do we do about the

steel industry, how do we save it? But we saw a real turn. We had all

the parties saying, we must save steel. The Conservative government

in London now considering a 25% stake in the industry, the kind of

language that we have not had from anyone really since the 80s. But

also I think what it did is it made us really think about what

industries were there that we really needed to keep within or economy.

Industries that we couldn't afford to lose. And we did let go largely

of the coal industry but we are saying, no, we are not going to do

this with steel. That made people really think about the strategic

importance, how much we felt we wanted these industries in a way

that we haven't before. Often ownership has moved, industries have

moved, and we've kind of let it go saying, that is what happens with

economies. There has been a real change point with the solstice

organisers, people, politicians and voters have thought, actually, do we

want to not have these industries any more -- with the steel crisis.

Two governments were very keen to work together on both ends of the

M4. Out of that play in the campaign? We said this many times --

how did that play into the campaign. There was the sense that Labour got

the upper hand, Carwyn Jones, wants the news broke he was there outside

the plant, Sajid Javid was in Australia, and there were bad

headlines about the UK Government slow response above arrester bed.

Sarah talked about that, 25% stake -- slow response and all the rest of

it. Certainly the hope from the Conservatives was that it would

cancel it out as an issue politically. And, you know, in the

fullness of time this will become apparent, the extent to which it

became an issue. Certainly it has been a big issue in the local level

in the constituencies around the steel plants. The sense in which it

has become a national issue and one party has benefited from it is

questionable. It has brought home how peoples income can be affected

by global issues, the price of iron ore might seem very remote, but it

has brought these big globalisation issues home. It has been an

extraordinary story, and Wales has been at the heart of a big, global

story. I think, politically behind-the-scenes some of the

opposition parties were thinking that maybe Labour were taking

advantage of the situation in the way that steel was hoovering up all

be a time and wings like Labour's record running the NHS was proving

difficult -- hoovering up all the airtime. Carwyn Jones says he is

happy to defend that accusation because the steel industry is so

important to the Welsh economy. Are first result is imminent, it is

going to be from Allah in Deeside, the candidates are getting on stage.

-- it is going to be from Alan in Deeside. The Minister for National

resources lives there. They are all lined up on the stage. We should be

able to hear the result very shortly. They are just checking that

everything is ready. There we go, they are about to talk. Let's hear

the result from Connah's Quay. Election of an Assembly Member for

the Alyn and Deeside constituency. SPEAKS IN WELSH

I, Colin Everett, being the constituency returning officer of

the above election do hereby give notice that the number of votes

recorded for each candidate at the set election is as follows.

SPEAKS IN WELSH Martin Bennewith, Wales Green Party,

527 votes. Michelle Brown, UK Independence

Party, 3765 votes. Mike Gibbs, Welsh Conservative Party, 4558 votes.

Jacqui Hurst, Plaid Cymru, 1994 votes. Carl Sargeant, Welsh Labour,

9992 votes. CHEERING

And finally, Peter Williams, Welsh Liberal Democrats, 980 votes.

The number of ballot papers rejected, 142.

I do hereby declare that Carl Sargeant, Welsh Labour, has been

duly elected to serve as Assembly member for the said constituency.

SPEAKS IN WELSH. That is the first result of the

night and Carl Sargeant, the former minister, is holding onto Alyn and

Deeside, and there he is, the am returning to Cardiff Bay, Carl

Sargeant, with 9922 votes, a majority of 5364, on a turnout of

35%, which is lower than some of the figures that we have been talking

about. Let us look at the share of the vote then, Labour on 46% and the

Conservatives on 21%, Ukip on 17% and Plaid Cymru on 9% with the Lib

Dems on 5% and the Greens on 2%. I will talk you right through these

graphics for our listeners on radio Wales. Labour are down 7% and so are

the Conservatives but Ukip are up 17%. Plaid Cymru are edging up at 1%

and the Liberal Democrats are down 3% and the Green party are up 2%

which means that in Alyn and Deeside, the first result of the

night, we have seen a swing from conservative to Labour, a tiny swing

of 0.1%. We cannot read much into this because it was a pretty safe

seat. We can't read a lot for the rest of Wales but a couple of

interesting things emerge from that. First for the Conservatives came

second and this was a seat that Ukip were talking up a couple of years

ago as being a seat where they could really challenge Labour and they

haven't done that in this election. They finished third, albeit a close

third. The votes that Ukip have gained have probably come from

Labour and the Conservatives which a lot of us predicted in some of those

north-east seats and possibly that would be different in the valleys

seats in East Wales. They did to target the north-east. They have hit

it hard. Yes, they have had high Street premises and it is an area

along with south-east Wales and North East Wales, they are Welsh

heartland areas. A pretty good result therefore Carl Sargeant. His

majority was 5505 years ago so it has really just come down marginally

and if we are talking about a drop-off in support over five years

of ten or 15 percentage points across Wales then that is not being

reflected there in his figure, although one of the seats in

north-east Wales that was probably always going to be strongest for

Labour. Your point, Laura, that Ukip are targeting Labour as well as

conservative, it is often seen that they are on the right but they are

targeting the working class and that is where they are aiming at. Let us

be 30 Ukip, in our discussions about them, I don't think they have

targeted any group in particular, I think it has been more of a magnet

effect in terms of electors attaching themselves to Ukip and

that has been a pretty mixed bag. In the south Wales valleys it will be

disenfranchised voters who might traditionally have voted Labour or,

if they were looking for a protest party in the past might have voted

Plaid Cymru but those voters who do go out, and not all of them will,

will now vote Ukip if they want to vote against Labour. It is not left/

right, it is a phenomenon, they are an antiparty in many senses, in

terms of their behaviour as well. In the valleys, where you have been out

with the campaigners, is it a protest vote or an attraction to

something more positive? From the people I have spoken to, which is

all I can know about, it is a protest vote in terms of often the

people who said to me that they used to vote Labour and they now look

that Ukip are people who economically feel they have been

left behind a bit as the prosperity has moved south along the M4 and

this area, Alyn and Deeside, and Wrexham which is coming up soon, is

an area that has been relatively prosperous in the last few years and

has had quite a lot of buzz government involvement and

supporting of the key industries there and I think that might make a

difference. Thank you, let us go back to the sofas and we will have

reaction to the first result. At last we have a Welsh result.

It is something we can get our teeth into and it is a Labour win for Carl

Sargeant. What is your reaction, David? A very good result for Labour

and for Carl Sargeant and I think a couple of points I'd like to make is

that the results in different parts of Wales will be very different,

local factors are important although this is an all Wales selection. Ian

Wood Caerphilly for example my guess is that Labour will hold it but it

will be closer than people imagine and that is because there is the

issue of the local development plan that has been put forward by the

Labour councillor and that has been a big issue in the southern part of

the constituency and it is also a case that although this is an all

Wales campaign UK perceptions are still very important and we can't

get away from the fact that over the last week or so the Labour Party at

a UK level has not done itself a lot of favours and you have Ken

Livingstone making outrageous comments on him

being suspended, senior figure being suspended from the party, and that

has created an overall impression I think, despite the excellent work of

Carwyn Jones, that the Labour Party on a UK level is not doing what it

should do. That has happened in the last few days but you have had the

steel crisis and criticism Oval the UK Government not reacting fast

enough and Ben David cannon 's tax affairs of the junior doctors

strike, it hasn't been all one way, the UK picture, many people would

argue it has been in the favour of Welsh Labour for much of the

campaign? There have certainly been elements in the last few weeks in

Labour's favour but we have to be honest and look at the situation

regarding Jeremy Corbyn 's leadership, there was a lot of

concern amongst voters generally about the direction of the Labour

Party and I think the onus now is very much on Jeremy Corbyn to show

his working-class views in Wales and show he has the aspiring voters

views as well and that is a big challenge for the Labour Party. Is

it the voters who do not like Jeremy Corbyn, or his MPs? I think it is an

element both if I am honest and Jeremy is a very, very decent person

but I think that although he has made progress in the last few weeks

of his leadership, he still has a heck of a lot to do and I am one of

those people who strongly supports him and urges him to make those

changes because he is going to be the leader of the Labour Party for a

long time. Are you sure about that? As long as he can be. You

anticipated my question because I was going to ask what your opinion

was a Jeremy Corbyn and you have said he strongly support and that is

fine. Ukip reaction from you, Jim, you have beaten Plaid Cymru but a

solid performance from the Conservatives to force you into

third place. 17% bodes well, Michelle is number two on our

regional list there so it bodes very well. We are slightly up on what the

opinion polls are saying. It bodes very well for us in North Wales, it

is mathematically the easier of the regions to win the seat since

because of the size and it is looking very positive and to get 17%

in that part of the world is very strong and I think it bodes well and

it goes back also to the fact that we are taking votes clearly from

Labour and Conservatives and we are taking votes from both parties. I

disappointed not to be the second party? I don't think there is that

much in it, it was not that much of the issue. It was going to be very

hard seat to win and I want to see us march forward on from this

election and be in a position of having Assembly members and going

into the next Assembly elections looking at those first past the post

seats and using the list seats as the opportunities to springboard.

Craig, your reaction to the results? I know we are all excited have

result invest is not one of the most exciting seats. Let us talk about

it, I think it emphasises what we have been talking about throughout

the programme, about the Conservatives and motivating the

vote and getting them out for an Assembly Election and I think that

shone through there and if you look at the solid second place, in the

Assembly politics we are clearly now in second place, we have defended

that significantly and I think we will see results from Conservative

results but I think that does emphasise what we will see

throughout the night, motivating that conservative vote for Assembly

elections is perhaps something we need to focus on. We haven't really

talked about the Ukip challenge to the Conservative support. We talked

about how Labour fights that but what are your thoughts from a

conservative perspective? Very briefly, if you would. You have to

see it in the context of the EU referendum and the holy issue was

quite heightened at the moment and I think the fact that we have offered

the British people that referendum, that is our response in a way and

getting that mandate from the British people, whether to stay in,

as I want or leave as most of Ukip want and some in my party and hoping

that to clear the air and said that issue for a generation and then we

can move in -- move on. I know we will disagree on this but the

European issue is the Ukip flag that they all rally around. For the

Liberal Democrats, fewer than 1000 votes, Jenny, what are your

thoughts? Well, this is not a part of Wales where we thought we were

going to do astonishingly well. It is not a seat we have targeted in

anyway and we are very grateful to our candidates who have been

standing in seats like this, and showing the Liberal Democrat flag.

This is really important that that option is put there but I want to

take up the issue that we have just raised, which is that I think in so

many ways this is a fascinating time in politics, but it is a very unique

time in politics because of the EU referendum. We are passionately

pro-European party, but it is quite obvious from the campaigning on the

doorsteps that Ukip's popularity is being buoyed up by the fact that the

EU question is at the front of everyone's mind, and so because the

other parties are to a greater or lesser extent pro-EU then the hand

TEU vote is coalescing around Ukip. It is therefore making them very

much more popular at this moment and we will have to see how things work

out in the long run. I very much hope that Britain will, as a whole,

though to stay in the EU. In terms of the Ukip attraction, what did you

make of the idea that we heard from Laura that they are a magnet for

people who feel themselves disenfranchised by the established

political parties, because that is a real challenge for the rest of you,

to try and re-appeal to those voters, isn't it? I think the

interesting thing is where they are getting their vote from. I would say

that the Labour Party needs to be very worried because my experience

was that the Ukip vote was largely coming from areas, working-class,

previously traditional Labour areas, and Jeremy Corbyn is actually pretty

popular amongst middle-class Labour supporters, of which there are loads

in Wales, but he is not terribly popular in the more working-class

areas and Ukip is picking up a lot of votes there. That vote is

becoming solid as well. We have seen that, it is becoming a solid vote

and we saw during the campaign that the people we are speaking to join

the campaign, they are consistently voting Ukip now. Hold that thought

for a second because I just want to bring Amelia in because we have not

heard from you about the Wrexham results. This is an area we are not

looking specifically for seats in but the 2% is actually difference it

makes to get a Green elected, it sounds small but those small changes

is all we need. We have been close in the past and this could be our

opportunity but I want to call in the EU aspect because I think one of

the fears is that whoever does going to the Welsh Assembly, they don't

know what platform now going to be there on and the changing tides of

politics means it is possible that people are not going to be able

to deliver what was in their manifesto, it is possible that if

there was a Brexit, I hope that we remain but if we do leave that the

AMs will not be able to deliver. I think it is a shame that it has

dominated this election because obviously AMs do not have any say on

this and we all have a duty to combat Ukip in our communities. We

put out leaflets saying we would never blame the failure of

government policy on migrants in our communities because I think that we

have seen that we have scratched the surface. There are vicious attacks

on my party coming from organisations and I speak as the

only British parliamentarian with the Romani Gypsy background and I am

probably one of the most left-wing members of my party but it is

despicable when people have smashed my constituency office and what is

clear, as has been indicated by Jenny... Candidates said they blamed

rubbish on migration. Wrap this up very briefly, if you wouldn't mind.

We have to talk about the fact that people are voting for Ukip because

they feel let down by the other parties and that she Ukip is the

only party that is actually... You can't blame the vulnerable in our

society for the failures of government policy. We will leave

that now and we will go back to bed. Turnout is something we have been

talking about a lot. We have facts and figures. Let's go to the Senedd

to look at turnout. Bethan, we have had around a dozen results coming in

in terms of the turnout. We will have a look at how it compares with

the other Assembly elections. These are the turnout in each of the

elections since 1999, the high point was in the first election, 46%.

Since then it has been a disappointing set of turnout was,

the lowest was 38%. Then 43% in 2011.

The turnout is higher than what we have seen in the past, 46%. Putting

it on a par with the first election that we saw back in 1999. There is

still perhaps a cause for concern. Let's bring in the general election

results, the turnout result that we have had in Wales during the same

period. You can see in 1999 you have got a 46% turnout for the Assembly

election, the 61% cannot for the Westminster election. That is a 15

percentage point gap -- turnout. And if we move along to what we have got

so far the night at least, you see that gap has actually grown. The gap

between those who voted in Assembly elections and those who voted in

Westminster elections has grown now to 20 percentage points. I guess

that is going to be the fear for Assembly Members and all those

involved with the Assembly itself, why don't these elections seem to

get so much attention, so much interest from people to get them out

voting as the Westminster elections do? It is early days, we haven't had

in yet. But that 46% is a fair bit lower than what we saw last year in

the general election. Of course, different issues, different matters,

people vote differently, but quite a gap between the two sets of

elections. Thank you. We have swapped professors again, Richard

Wyn Jones is back with us. While you were away, we had a few results from

Scotland. What did you read on to those with the MX picture. The

Liberal Democrats, who will be hearing the absolute worst, were

cheered by the first result of the evening in Orkney were after

Alistair Carmichael's prevails they won handsomely. The main line of the

story is the continuing rise of the SNP. But it is a little patchy. What

you see is in those areas, the independence referendum has changed

everything in Scottish politics. In those working class areas where they

used away the Labour votes, the SNP is doing really well -- used the

way. Then we see other kinds of patterns. We saw a result in the

leafy stuff leafy suburbs of Glasgow, a well-heeled area, where

we had a 3-way competition and the Tories came from the middle and took

the seat from Ken McIntosh, a prominent Scottish Labour politician

who used to be talked about as prospective leader. In other seats

we see the anti-SNP starting to coalesce around whoever seems best

placed to challenge them. We are seeing a reshaping of Scottish

politics around the unionist - nationalist or independent divide.

It will cost, of course the Tories have been pushing that line very

hard during the campaign. There does seem to be some element of that

coming into play. Let's bring in schools on the doors if you like for

Scotland now. We have 48% share of the vote on the constituencies. We

haven't had any regional voting yet, for the SNP. That is up 3%.

Kezia Dugdale, brought in to revive Scottish Labour's fortunes after a

very rough patch for the party. Is she doing that? It doesn't seem to

be working? No, they clearly haven't hit the bottom. Although if she

wants to carry on, she can carry on. The last thing that Labour lead now

is yet another leader -- Labour need. They can't simply continue

changing readers. But we are seeing, you know, a remarkable demise of

this mighty, once mighty electoral machine. They are in dire, dire

Straits and it does seem genuinely possible now that the Conservatives,

it is still early doors and the figures are very, very early, but it

is now clearly possible that Labour have a third party in Scotland -- of

a third party. Health and education were prominent, but it was mainly

about tax, their new powers on income tax. And also, will there be

another referendum and what would be the trigger for that? In terms of

the divide, Independent has become the big dividing line. We used to

talk about class politics in Britain, once upon a time. In

Scotland, the divide now seems to be independence. That is the big

dividing terms of the way that foes are split between the parties. In

terms of issues, the main issue was taxation -- the way the divides are

split. That is an interesting contrast with Scotland, they are

further down that road, they have the legislation on the fiscal

framework. They essentially know where they are and they have a much

more expensive measure of income tax devolution than the partial income

tax devolution that has been suggested for Wales. It has entered

into the debate here, but not probably. Can I ask, I was thinking,

do you think, you say the Assembly elections in five years' time were

maybe at that stage, the income tax devolution would have happened, or

partial control of income tax. Will we ever get to that stage, the level

of that debate on income tax in Wales as we see in Scotland? I think

we will. I think it is inevitable. I think it has now been accepted by

the UK parties that you cannot have a situation where you have read of

all the Assembly which is basically a spending agency and is not raising

any money. -- when you have a devolved Assembly. We are going to

see a move to a situation where the Assembly and the budget of ?15

million per year, 20% of that will be from home sourced revenues. That

changes the nature of the debate. There are big questions as to how we

get from here to there in terms of negotiating the Welsh fiscal

framework. But I'm sure that we will get there. And it will change the

nature of wealth politics. And let's just look at Bridgend, what is

happening that -- the nature of Welsh politics. Several results

coming in, not least the by-election. There is a pretty rare

move of moving from Westminster, trying to get that seat, which he

probably will, it will be quite a shock if he doesn't hold it from the

Assembly. We are likely to see four former MPs joining the Assembly

tonight, or this morning, or whatever, I have lost track! We have

got Adam Price, Mark Reckless, Neil Hamilton, obviously experienced

parliamentarians all joining the Assembly. Neil Hamilton described it

as a promotion this evening. As he should. Absolutely. There they are.

They are lining up. That is the by-election results coming. The

candidate is trying to move into the Assembly. Let's see if he is about

to make that declaration. There is the returning officer. The

parliamentary by-election for the honourable constituency. I will do

that in English, followed by a Welsh translation. I, being the acting

returning officer of the election held on the 5th of May 2016, do

hereby give notice that the number of votes recorded for each candidate

at the election is as follows. Glenda Davies, Ukip Wales, 3808.

Janet Allard, Welsh Liberal Democrats, 702. Christopher Lowell

Welsh Labour, 12800 and 83. Abigail Thomas, Plaid Cymru, 3563. Alexander

Williams, Welsh Conservative Party, 2956. There were 77 rejected ballot

papers. I do hereby declare that Christopher Elmore is Julie elected.

-- is duly elected. STUDIO: Right, let's have a look at

the vote for Ogmore, then. Labour on 52%.

It has moved on to quickly for me to see, I'm afraid! Somebody else's

controlling my buttons, not me. Ogmore, Labour hold. There we have

it, the new Labour MP for Ogmore is Chris Elmore, who trained as a

butcher many years ago, apparently. A majority of 8575 for Labour, and

traditionally a very strong Labour seat, and held on. Not an issue for

Huw Irranca-Davies. He has been there for a long time, he took over

Ray Powell in Westminster. No surprise with Ogmore, safe as

houses. Chris Elmore has been a councillor in the Vale of Glamorgan,

he studied at Glamorgan, actually, this time last year. And he has now

got himself a seat in parliament, as a result of that decision by Huw

Irranca-Davies, which in a way is more interesting than the Ogmore

by-election result, really. Which was largely expected. It is very

interesting that Huw Irranca-Davies followed Ray Powell in Westminster

and is hopeful following Ray Powell's daughter. That's right,

Janice Gregory. Something that we really haven't seen during the

course of the Assembly in the past 17 years, somebody in their prime,

if you could call it that. The prime of his parliamentary career, Huw

Irranca-Davies, clearly making a definitive call, I think the action

is in Cardiff Bay. You can read that two ways. One, you could be very

positive about devolution and what is happening with the powers. You

could also read into it as a reflection of where he thinks the

state of the Labour Party is a key parliamentary level at the moment.

But he has made the decision. It could be both, of course. One thing

that I find interesting, no surprise is there, but one thing the point

about result with and I is is going to happen the rest of the morning.

Labour is well ahead of the pack, but the opposition was going to be

evenly divided. You had three parties all around 3000 votes.

Collectively, that vote would be enough to at least give you a base

to -- from which to challenge Labour. Labour are fortunate in this

electoral contest because their opposition is fractured. That gives

them an enormous advantage, particularly in the electoral

context. Also now Ukip or on the block as well. And white Cymru,

partisans are looking at that and thinking, we are, whatever it was --

Plaid Cymru. It was a boost for them in that result, but it is not

troubling the school in anyway. Labour are just far ahead of the

pack. It has consistently helped Labour through the years. Except for

99, of course. The first devolved election, Plaid Cymru appeared for

that brief moment. Since then, we have had this rise to the

Conservatives and the sinking of Plaid. Now the arrival of Ukip as a

serious balls, 15, 16, 17%. This is a fantastic system for Labour -- a

serious support. It is a fantastic position for them. Many would say

they are a very lucky party. They got 52% of the vote, they won that

handsomely, there and square. I was trying to draw attention to the

point about the fractured vote. Can I diving quickly, the chairman of

the local Conservative branch in the Vale of Clwyd saying it looks like

they have lost. Strong indication that Labour have

held the Vale of Clwyd. I should not have interrupted Andrew RT Davies

some hours ago... I do apologise... I am getting... It is very early

on... Thank you, it is 3am, time to go back to the spin room. Let's talk

to Hugh Thomas, taking over from Jason. Still building his fantasy

football team. There was a bit of a hush here, then

that came in, the chat beginning again. I am joined by three women

now, who will chat around arts and culture and the place that has had

in the campaign. Welcome to you all. Laura, the arts, as a doorstep

issue, it is quite low down on the priority list for politicians, is

that the general impression? I think so, although it's quite high in my

household and other households. We've had the largest hustings in

Wales based around arts and culture and it was successful. It tends to

be seen as a low-down issue, I think it's written right the way through

we live our lives, we should be more aware of it, more open when talking

about it and I was politicians would do the same. Yvette, you live in

Cardiff, what is the perception about how Wales works with the arts?

The political influence? There is no doubt that artists are enormous

ambassadors for Wells. People nowhere else across the world,

generally through the artists. But it's really obvious from the

outside, when you want to come in and work in Wales, it is not

championing the arts in terms of politics. It's not easy to navigate

your way into Wales as an artist. In what way? Either barriers? There is

a lack of clarity about who to go to, bird is lots of different silos,

the creative industry separate from the arts. -- there is lots. No real

channels of communication. It needs to be sorted. It is duplication and

it's not efficient. That really is a political issue. We will go back to

get a result... I think. Thank you, we think a

result is imminent, let's cross to the overturning officer. And the

result coming imminently from Delyn... No, they are still checking

the sound... Sandy has represented since 2003... Congratulations to all

the team. Election of an assembly member for the Delyn constituency...

I Colin Everett, the constituency officer for the above election do

hereby give notice that the number of votes recorded for each candidate

at the selection is as follows... Hannah Caroline Blethyn, 9480. Tom

Rippeth, Welsh Liberal Democrats... 1718. Paul Robinson... Plaid

Cymru... To 269. Huw Williams, Welsh Conservatives...

5898. Nigel Williams, Ukip... 3794. The total number of ballot papers

rejected 165. I hereby declare that Hannah Blythyn

has been elect did... CHEERING

Continuing in the labour fold, Delyn. 9480, labour, Huw Williams

but the Conservative Party is second. Ukip in third place.

Let's look at the share of the vote in Delyn... 41% for Labour, 25%

Conservative, 1640 Ukip... Labour down 5%, Conservatives down

8%, Ukip up against 16%, the same sort of fries that we saw in Alyn

and Deeside. Plaid Cymru down 3%, the Liberal Democrats no change.

Considering the swing their... One and a half percent swing from

Conservatives to Labour. This is a very good result for Labour,

disappointing for the Conservative Party. Particularly, this was a

seat, three months ago, you would have said, the Conservatives are in

with a shout. Hannah Blyton, energetic, working the seat very

hard, this was a part of the world, the Conservatives were feeling

Chaparrastique, it adds... Let's go to that they love to it, I result...

SPEAKS WELSH... I, being the returning officer at the selection,

do hereby give notice that the number of faults recorded for each

candidate at this election is as follows... Paul Cook, Ukip... 2975.

Ann Jones, Welsh Labour... 9560. Maya Romans... Plaid Cymru... 2098.

Samuel Romans... Welsh Conservatives...

8792. -- Rowlands. Gwyn Williams... Welsh Liberal Democrats...

I do hereby declare that the said Margaret Ann Jones has been duly

elected to serve as assembly member for the said constituency. Ann

Jones, shaking the hand with a big smile, the returning officer,

representing that area since 99, and she will be going back to Cardiff

Bay. To represent the Vale of Clwyd. The result... Let's look at the

share of the vote. 40%, Labour. A big Tory target seat, 36%, the

Conservatives. They too good in the general election, 2015. Ukip on 12%,

Plaid Cymru of 9%. The majority for Labour of 768, a turnout of 43%.

They pushed hard, Ann Jones, Labour wanted her because of the personal

support and the history she has in that seat. And she has held that.

That is the... Swing in share of the vote... We are looking at the

changed since 2011, 11% down for Labour, Conservatives up 3%, Ukip up

12%, Plaid Cymru down 3%. The Liberal Democrats down by 2%, if you

are listing to us in bed on Radio Wales, these graphics do not come

alive but we are doing our best. We are painting the picture. Richard...

This was a 7% swing to the Conservatives, they needed about

eight points seven, they did well, but this was a key seat for them.

They won it, it was one of the big surprises last year, they thought

they could maintain that momentum, this is a very good result for

Labour. A popular assembly member who worked the patch. Indeed, this

was a part of the world... I mention this earlier after the Delyn

results, I am sorry, Alyn and Deeside... These are seats in parts

of Wales, the Conservatives expecting to do well three months

ago and they are not doing it. We are going to see Wrexham... They may

just be falling short everywhere. That would be a stunning achievement

for Labour, to be fair. OK, let's talk to Chris now, I think he can

join us from Rhondda... Good morning. I am holding my ear in. Do

not let go. You looking good. It is very quiet! Let's start... Come on,

get on with it, ask me a question. You are relieved that you held onto

to Alan and these and Delyn? Yes, I am delighted for Hannah that she has

won. -- Alyn and Deeside. The Welsh Assembly, proud to think of him as a

collie, the Tories, as you said, had been falling short, I think that's

because you see a divided Tory party. David Cameron's leadership, a

terrible budget, basically trying to balance the books of this country on

the backs of the disadvantaged and vulnerable... Sergei Javad being the

most incompetent Business Secretary, having nothing to say to the people

of Port Talbot. -- side she Javad. We had Nathan Gill on the programme,

saying yes, we are targeting Labour, that is a great rival, not the party

of the right, party of the left and working class. They are the party of

the right pretending to be a party of the working classes, that's the

truth. I don't think any of the resolutions about finance, the NHS,

all of those would be even more right-wing in the Conservative

Party, in the general election in the Rhondda last year, Ukip got 4000

votes, I don't think they'll get anything like that tonight. It's

nothing like a uniform swing across Wales, seeing people like... I have

forgotten his name... The Tory man who got into terrible trouble and

had to leave Parliament and is now going to be elected on the list for

Ukip... Right, OK... After seeing those people on telly, they will go

in Wales, I do not want Ukip. He wouldn't describe himself like

that,... Neil Hamilton... What a ghastly man. Let's look at the fight

for UR. Leanne Wood taking on Leighton Andrews, what are you

hearing? It's difficult to tell, you can see there is a break going on,

we have not verified yet, still separating out all the papers. It's

difficult to tell, the largest postal ballot vote anywhere in Wales

as I understand, we have not even started looking at those. We have

and we are hopeful that Leighton Andrews will win, he is a cracking

minister, superb assembly member, Leanne has had vast acreage of

coverage for the last 18 months on telly every single day and

undoubtedly that will help her campaign but I passionately hope

that Leighton Andrews will still be my assembly colleagues. Do you think

we will have result? We are on a until 9:15am... Fingers crossed. I

had a bit of a nap before at 10pm because I thought we might take a

long time. I look forward to seeing you later. OK, thank you. I am sure

we will have you back. Thank you. He is very chipper! Who knows what

is going on. I just got a horrific message from Cardiff West think they

are slow. Why? We did think that the Police and Crime Commissioner vog

would have an impact. I am starting a campaign now for counting on

Friday. I used to enjoy the overnight excitement, but... Are you

getting too old? That may be the case. Maybe we all are. There will

be a flurry of results now. We have a scoreboard. It looks pitiful at

the moment. Not much on it. No, it has gone. We did have a scoreboard.

1 of the things that is worth pondering is that all the polls we

have had in the campaign has suggested a big drop in Labour

support. Maybe not translating to a drop in seats, maybe losing a

quarter of the votes and 2 or 3 of the seats. At least in North East

Wales and we are talking specifically about 1 part of the

country, we're not think that drop-off in Labour support. They are

holding up well. That interesting -- that is interesting because that is

a part of Wales where the economy is doing well, except for those people

without skills. They are the people with very little prospects and

perhaps they are the people that are giving 11% swings towards Ukip. The

other thing about these constituencies is places like Delyn,

what has that played in the campaign? Labour has told us for a

while that the problems surrounding the NHS Pete about a year ago and

they had a handle on the issues. Those results would suggest that

maybe that was the case. But then the other point which 1 should

underline is we might witness localise results. We may have this

particular tendency in the North East. Will Gower be more difficult

for the Conservatives? And we are seeing these incredible rumours

coming out of places like Blaenau Gwent. We mentioned a potential

recount. We are hearing it is extremely close. That is the same as

99, isn't it? Plaid Cymru got about 5% of the votes, 5.5% in 2011, is

that it would be edged ordinary if they are anywhere near. What we may

see is a very localised shift. It will be interesting to know what the

local themes will be in Blaenau Gwent. Everyone thought the

challenge to Labour would be Ukip. Talking about that in the north-east

wealth corner, it looks similar in percentage terms to what they were

scoring in the general election last year. They look very much along the

same kind of band. It is a very respectable performance, but it is

not troubling the scorers in terms of winning constituencies, but will

make an impact on the lists. Let us cross to Scotland now because we

have pictures of Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP leader arriving at her

Glasgow count to rapturous applause. This is what she had to say. I am

expecting to have a stunning night here in Glasgow for the SNP. We are

not so much beating Labour in Glasgow as replacing Labour in

Glasgow. Obviously across the rest of the country we have seen

spectacular results, increased majorities, increase share of the

votes. It is early, but at this stage I am expecting a good night

for the SNP. That is Nicola Sturgeon at the count in Swansea. Now for

another declaration. Ladies and gentlemen, I am about to

make the announcement for Swansea East.

IQ Evans declared that the total number of votes given to each

candidate was as follows. Mike Hedges, Welsh Labour, 10700 and 26.

-- 10,726. Ukip, 3274. I give public notice that Mike

Hedges is duly elected as the Assembly member for the Swansea East

constituency. There we are. A very happy Mike

Hedges accepting his position once again in Cardiff Bay for the

constituency of Swansea East. The share of the vote then in Swansea is

a whopping 52% the Labour and the 2nd-place for you keep, -- for Ukip,

as they were in the general election last year. The Conservatives on 8th,

lip them is on 8 and the Greens on 3%. A majority of 7452 for Labour.

And the turnout there was 36%. We will quickly look at the change

since 2011. It means a swing from Labour to Ukip

of 11%. A quick word on that, Richard. Another good result for

Labour going back to my earlier theme. Labour don't seem to be

haemorrhaging votes. The Ukip vote is replicating what they did last

year. A nice new story that everyone can buy into. They have the lowest

turnout of 31%, but it was up to 36% it is not great, but it is in the

right direction. Lots of parties could agree on this. Maybe it is a

good place to start. The turnout going up is certainly something all

my guests will agree on being a good thing. I have a couple of fresh

faces so I should make some introductions. Joining us is Stephen

Kinnock. Then there is the hard-core still here. We are short of the

Conservative at the moment, but that will be rectified in due course.

Stephen Kinnock, your reaction to the series of results we have seen

so far. I think it is looking stunningly good for us and the

Conservatives have signally failed in a number of the seats they have

been targeting. It is a real should be to Carwyn's leadership who has

been head and shoulders above anyone. It has played a massive role

in delivering the results. I agree with Chris about the

catastrophically that way the UK government has handled the steel

crisis and that has played a major role which has converted into votes.

So far, it is looking good. You were pushed hard in some of those key

seats, the Vale of Clwyd for example. You say you think they are

stunningly good results Labour. Is it not a bit early to be quite so

optimistic? I'm a socialist you have to be optimistic. No, I think we

have had the 1st Minister in the for 17 years and we have been under the

microscope. -- First Minister. We should celebrate that, but there is

a lot of hard work to go. I am seeing on the ticker tape that we

might be holding Cardiff North. Llanelli is looking good. If those

results come together, we could hold at 30. There is talk of a recount in

Blaenau Gwent. We will put that to 1 side. Jim, what about your thoughts

on Ukip's form in the far western mark it is good. You saw the Swansea

East result. It has underlined what we have said all along. We are

eating into the Labour Party support. It is solid. We are getting

consistent scores, as we got in last year's election. With the

Conservatives not doing very well, I'm trying to factor up what effect

it will have on the distribution of the seats with the Conservatives

looking as if they will fall short. In terms of the strategy, we have

talked to night about who Ukip is targeting and talked about a lot

about the Ukip challenge to Labour. In terms of who is in your sites, is

Labour number 1 in your sites as the incoming party, or do you see Ukip

as being an equal opportunities challenger on the right wing and

left wing of the Conservatives? It is the Heino Kuhn effect. We are

reaching other parties -- it is the Heineken effect. We are reaching

parties other parties cannot reach. Are you though? Turnout has not gone

up? Well, I contention is turnout is low. Is aptly the same -- exactly

the same in Europe. What is hard for the other parties is we are

genuinely taking votes from across the board. As I have said and as I

will keep saying, our vote is solid. I will stop you there because it

looks as if we have the result coming in. Wrexham, a big seats,

this. SPEAKS WELSH iCal and Patterson

being the returning officer at the selection, do hereby give notice the

number of vote recorded for this election for each candidate is as

follows... SPEAKS WELSH Welsh Conservative

Party candidate Andrew Atkinson... Jeanette Bassford-Barton... Ukip...

2393... Beryl Blackmore, Welsh Liberal

Democrats... 1140. Alan Butterworth, Wales Green

party... 411. Lesley Griffiths, Welsh Labour...

7452. And I do hereby declare that Lesley

Griffiths has been duly elected to serve as assembly member for the

Wrexham constituency. APPLAUSE

CHEERING there we are, Lesley Griffiths

holding onto Wrexham. The Minister for communities and

tackling poverty in the last government, staying in Wrexham

despite talk of a strong challenge by the Conservatives. Giving her an

majority of 1325 over the Conservatives. Changes since the

last election... Labour down 8%, the Conservatives up by 4%, 40 Mac down

3%, Ukip up 12%. Turnout in Wrexham was 39%. That

means a swing from Labour to the Conservatives, over five and a half

percent. And the result is in from Merthyr Tydfil... Let's bring that

up... A Labour hold. Dawn Bowden, the former seat of Hugh Lewis, the

former Education Minister standing down, 9763 boats, Ukip in second

place. Plaid Cymru in third place, Brian Thomas... And the

Conservatives, Elizabeth Simon, 1331, the Lib Dems, 1122 and the

Green Party, 469, majority for Labour of 5486. And since 2011...

Labour down 7%, on a turnout of 38%. Ukip up by 21%. Plaid Cymru up while

9%, the Conservatives no change, Lib Dems down 7%, the Green Party up 2%.

Richard... Labour doing very well. I am genuinely... Wrexham, Merthyr

Tydfil, with the greatest of respect people there, it isn't the most

interesting constituency. Wrexham was one of those... Politically,

it's a beautiful place... With wonderful people but Wrexham was the

one to watch. The Conservatives had a strong local candidate, well

resourced, and you know, they pushed Lesley Griffiths close, having the

majority, some were around that... Nick will check while I talk

confidently... But actually, holding on relatively comfortably. It asks

some pretty big questions about the Conservative campaign, fairly clear

that the Conservatives had a bad national campaign, but we have had

the idea, we have assumed that because they ran such a great ground

game last year, and they have one constituencies by campaigning in

some very clever ways, we have assumed they could replicate that

pattern this time around. They certainly haven't done it in the

north-east, we will see in other key constituencies but the north-east

was prime territory for them. I think, Clwyd South is the one we

haven't had yet, but we would not expect that to go, it seems as if

Labour have seen off the challenge of the Conservatives in north-east

Wales, on the constituency basis. In terms of the Conservative campaign

Richard talked about, behind-the-scenes, what was it like?

They have a lot of intelligence from a year ago, a lot of respect,

frankly, from a lot of the opposition parties because of what

he managed to achieve this time last year. Let's look at a count, I think

that is Canavan... -- Caernarfon... SPEAKS WELSH he has been

representing that seat since 2003... New faces hoping to represent... I

think they are just finalising a couple of things from the stage...

If it follows to plan and it goes to the former journalist, a County

Council, the broad smile on her face, it would be a bit of a

surprise if she had not won. This is not a particularly interesting

results. While we are waiting, can I make account, I recount is likely

incur filly and we are told that Plaid Cymru is challenging Labour...

Pretty extraordinary development. A source suggesting that Labour have

won by 600 votes in Blaenau Gwent... We haven't had the result, that is

what our intelligence is suggesting. The recount in personally... They

are remarkable, it makes for another question... -- the recount in

Caerphilly... If they are making inroads into the valleys they can

take a lot of pain elsewhere for that price. And it sure Rob Leanne

Wood for a long time. I questioned a Welsh Labour source, asking, what is

going on in Blaenau Gwent, the answer, good question. Nobody knows.

This is what we saw in 99, the first election, a series of results, that

part of the world, surprising everyone, including Plaid Cymru. No

one talked about Blaenau Gwent... A recount in Caerphilly? Did they take

it? They have done to 99. But this time, against a big name like

Leighton Andrews? With a much improved Labour operation since 99,

I thought it was unlikely. Let's see what is going on... Has he started

with a declaration? There we go, they have started the declaration,

but unfortunately we cannot hear it. We will go there as as soon as

possible, they are shaking her hand, we can presume that she has one.

Sian Gwenllian. The other thing which has been a constant so far,

they will look a very long way away from winning anywhere but it

reinforces the expectation that they will do well on the lists... That

there will be a substantial Ukip block in the next assembly. Right,

Newport East... Something happening in Newport. Let's go to the stage.

We do that first in English and then able declare the result in Welsh.

I'd be undersigned being the returning officer at the election

for the Newport East constituency of the National Assembly of Wales...

Held on the 5th of May 2016, hereby give notice that the number of votes

recorded for each candidate at the election is as follows... Albert

John Griffiths... 92 to nine. -- 9229.

Paul Halliday... 1481. Munawar Mughal, 3768. Anthony Peterson...

4333. Anthony Salkeld, 1386. Peter Varley,

491. The number of ballot papers rejected, 441. I do hereby declare

that the said John Griffiths is duly elected for the said constituency.

CHEERING Bowls-macro there we have it. John

Griffiths staying in Newport East, he has been an AM since 99, from

Newport, a minister, of course, and will return to Cardiff Bay. Let's

assess the change in this vote. Since 2011... Labour down 6%. Ukip

up 21%. The Conservatives down 5%. Lib Dems down 12%, Plaid Cymru no

change, the Green Party up 2%. Turnout 37%. The majority for Labour

4896. A look at the swing... Labour to Ukip, 14%.

We had better have a quick word, with someone just elected, and

Jones, all smiles, in the Vale of Clwyd, congratulations. Happy to be

going back? Yes, I am. I have lots of interesting ideas that I want to

produce, to represent the Vale of Clwyd in the way I have done,

hard-working and honest and it's been under the leadership of the

great man in Carwyn Jones who has shown he can be the First Minister

of Wales, he is a First Minister of Wales and I will be talking to him

very soon on Monday, when we reconvene to talk about what we can

do now to push the Vale of Clwyd on further, building on the successes

of the last Labour government in the 21st century school buildings which

resulted in a new school in Rhyl, investment on Royal promenade,

flooding investment in the area and lots more I want to do, I will get

act down to that of the weekend and we are going to see, I will

represent the people of this area who have put their trust in me and I

am honoured and privileged to be going back.

Relieved though? The Conservatives were targeting the seats. What they

a bit too close comfort? Well, any election, we fight for every votes

and that is what me and my team have done. Last was a disappointment, but

we have put that aside. We have gone out and given the people of kit with

the message. I have talked to them and I think they have been

interested in what I have to say. -- the people of the Vale of Clwyd. It

seems you have seen of the threats right across the North East. Is that

how it feels to you? It without like that when we have been out and about

and we have been out and about extensively in the Vale of Clwyd. We

have been offering support to each other and I was glad that my

colleagues have been re-elected. It will be great to be back with

friends, old and new. Congratulations on your win this

evening. Labour, is the picture changing, given these successes of

Labour? It is a sticky situation. Labour don't go out much or down

much. It is a corridor of tedium between 27 and 30. These are very

good results for Labour. We are seeing in the swing swings to Ukip.

They don't really matter. It is the Conservative Labour relationship you

need to look at in particular and what we are seeing their is even

some of the seats were we have been assuming that the Conservatives were

well-placed to do well, we are not seeing the kind of swings. Labour

are getting votes in the right places. That is an uncanny trick for

a political party. It is all looking very good. Another result is

imminent. Gwyn Price is standing down. Candidates up on the stage. I,

the returning officer declare that the total number of votes giving to

each candidate was as follows... Lin Ackerman, Plaid Cymru, the party

of Wales, Welsh Liberal Democrats 597. Rhianon

Passmore, Welsh Labour, 10000 and 50. -- 10,000 50.

Jess Smith, Ukip Wales, 4944. Paul Williams, Welsh Conservative Party,

1000 745. -- 1745. Therefore I give public notice that Rhianon Passmore

is duly elected as the Assembly member for this constituency.

There we are then. Apologies for the pictures. If you were listening on

radio, you would not have had any problems. That is going to Blaenau

Gwent. We have been talking a lot about this. Potential for a recount

according to some sources. The candidates are all there. It is more

controversial than we thought. This is normally a rock-solid Labour

seat. The AM is lining up on stage with a big smile on his face, but

some of the other candidates are smiling as well. Can we read

anything into this? The majority from 5 years ago was 9000. From what

we are hearing it has been tighter and Plaid have been challenge. I

think this is the result now. Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. We

will now announce the result, starting in Welsh.

Ayt, the returning officer for Blaenau Gwent declared that the

total number of votes given to each candidate was as follows... Kevin

Anthony Bouchier, Ukip Wales, the thousand 423. -- 3000 423.

Brendan D'Cruz, Welsh Liberal Democrats, 300. Tracy Michelle West,

1334. Therefore I give public notice that

Alun Davies is duly elected for the Blaenau Gwent constituency. That is

why Alun Davies was smiling. He'd just hangs onto Blaenau Gwent. His

majority is down to 650. The result here in full:

it means Labour are on 40% and Plaid Cymru are on 37%, Ukip on 16%. The

Conservatives on 6% and the Liberal Democrats on 1%. Labour down 24%,

that is almost a quarter. Plaid Cymru are up 31%. Ukip is up 16%,

but I must stress they were not standing in many of the seats last

time, so we have to be cautious with the figures. The swing, labour to

Plaid Cymru, 28%. Let us look Candidates are lining up in Swansea

for Swansea West. There we go, they are just checking the sound. They

are all lined up. It is the former seat of Judi James, who is Labour,

of course. They are just getting ready to make the declaration, so

let us go to Swansea and see what is happening.

Ayt, if you evidence, the returning officer for the Swansea West

constituency, declared that the total number of votes given to each

candidate was as follows... Christopher Holley Ashley, 2012.

Rosie Irving, Ukip, 3058. Julie James, Welsh Labour, 9014. Brian

Johnson, the Socialist Party of Great Britain, 76. Craig Lawton,

Welsh Conservative Party, 3934. Doctor Dai Lloyd, Plaid Cymru,

3225. Gareth David Tucker, Welsh Green Party, 883.

Therefore I give public notice that Julie James is duly elected as the

Assembly member for the Swansea West constituency. There we are. Julie

James holding on in the seat of Swansea West, which has been Labour

since the beginning of the National Assembly back in 1999. Home to 2

universities. We have the result. Labour 9014. The turnout 41% and the

majority 5080. Lots of activity on the stage in Clwyd South and in

Wrexham. We will go to Wrexham and we are going to call Clwyd South. I

think all the candidates are there. That must be Clwyd South because I

can see Ken Skates on the left. The returning officer is about to speak.

I, Helen Pattison, being the returning officer to give notice

that the number of votes recorded for each candidate at the said

election is as follows... SPEAKS WELSH.

Plaid Cymru at, 8631. -- Plaid Cymru. Simon Robert Morris Baines,

Welsh Conservative Party, 4800 46 -- 4000 846.

Duncan Rees... Wales Green party... 474.

Aled Roberts... Welsh Liberal Democrats... 2289...

And I hereby declare that Ken Skates has been duly elected to serve as an

assembly member for the Clwyd South constituency. Let's go straight to

Newport West... The result... Good morning, I am now going to declare

the result for the Newport West constituency.

I be undersigned being the returning officer for the Newport West

constituency for the National Assembly... Held on the 5th of May

2016 do hereby give notice that the number of faults recorded for each

candidate at the election is as follows... Pippa Bartolotti... 814.

Bryant, 12100 and 57. Simon Coopey, 1645. Matthew Evans... 8042.

Anthony William James Fearnley budding style... Michael Ford...

3142. Gruff Meredith... 48. Liz Newton,

880. The number of ballot papers rejected was as follows... 145. And

I hereby declare that the said Jayne Bryant is duly elected for the said

constituency. CHEERING

APPLAUSE There we are, Newport West staying

Labour, Jayne Bryant taking that. And there is a result, the

confirmation... 12,157 for the Labour Party. The Conservatives,

Matthew Evans on 8042... The turnout in Newport West was 45%,

a majority of 4115, let's look at the change since last time. Labour

down by 8%, the Conservatives 5%, Ukip up 14, Plaid Cymru down 1%.

That means it's a swing from Labour to the Conservatives, one pointed

percent. Cynon Valley, that result as in, let's look

there we go, Vikki Howells winning, but the Labour Party, 9830. Gareth

Griffiths for Plaid Cymru, 3836. Turnout was 38%, majority of 5994.

Christine Chapman, standing down in Cynon Valley. I think we have a

pattern developing... I think I can say something. What we are seeing,

and these figures may not quite right, we are rushing to catch up

but the results, Labour down around 7%, the Conservatives down around

3%, Plaid Cymru up around 3%, the Lib Dems down 3% on what was not a

great result back in 2011. Basically, the opinion poll

conducted by Cardiff University and ITV looks about right, but this is

the crucial thing, Labour at getting the votes in the right places. Just

doing enough to see off the challenges, this is a really

effective performance. The Newport West result was significant in this

sense that our first marginal Labour Conservative head-to-head, Matthew

Evans, the former leader of Newport Council 40 could challenge Labour.

He has failed to significantly dent the Labour majority, the first

relatively tight seat in South Wales, moving from north-east Wales,

and it would appear that the trend we saw in north-east Wales has

certainly been repeated... But this extraordinary outline in Blaenau

Gwent and I need someone to explain to me why this link can be

one-way... The circuit of Wales? Could it be something... It is

genuinely extraordinary and I can give you no explanation, I am sorry.

I have no idea. That is one of the points we had the making, lots of

local issues, and I wonder where, for instance, places like Merthyr

Tydfil, the Labour vote held up. Big investment from General dynamics and

other companies... That kind of thing hasn't happened some margin

Blaenau Gwent, I think the people there hope and think something will

happen. Is there and other personal or local issue that we don't know

about? It could be about the candidates. Such an outrider on

everything else we have seen, this massive swing against Labour. To

Plaid Cymru in a context... And Caerphilly... Let's see what happens

there. Apart from that, this is excellent news for Labour, losing

ground but they aren't not so bad that it is damaging. Let's see what

the people on the sofa, are they dozing off? Not quite. Felicity...

Quite a lot to digests since we visited your views last. Stephen

Kinnock, I will come back to you, Labour doing very well. Your

thoughts. It continues to be a good story, some strange results with

Blaenau Gwent being an example but I think overall, what we are seeing is

a strong performance. Thank you, candidates coming to the stage in

Neath, let school there. This is the result for the Neath

constituency. SPEAKS WELSH. I Stephen Phillips constituency

returning officer for the Neath constituency declare that the total

number of faults given to each candidate was as follows... Peter

Crocker Jacks... 2179. Steve Hunt, independent, 2056. Frank Little,

Welsh Liberal Democrats... 746. Alun Llywelyn... Plaid Cymru, 6545. My

list Jeremy -- Jeremy Miles... 9468. Richard Prichard, Ukip... 3780. Lisa

Rapado, Wales Green party... 589. I give public notice that Jeremy Miles

is duly elected as the Assembly member for the Neath constituency.

CHEERING APPLAUSE

We are about to make the declaration for the constituency...

I am Jeremy Parodi is, constituency returning officer... This will

include the Welsh translation. If we are ready... The constituency

returning officer... But the National Assembly of Wales. I do

hereby give notice that the number of faults recorded for each

candidate is as follows. -- the number of faults. Petra Haig,

Wales Green party... 680. Sarah Burgess... Welsh Liberal

Democrats... 781. 6892. Mike Priestley, Welsh

Labour... 6039. Therefore I declare that the

following candidate is elected, Janet Finch-Saunders...

CHEERING APPLAUSE

So... There we are, Janet Finch-Saunders

holding Aberconwy for the Conservatives, apologies for the

sound at the Montgomeryshire declaration, that is why we left

that halfway through, I don't know about you but I could not hear a

word they were saying, we will bring you details about that shortly.

Stephen Kinnock... Sorry, I interrupted you to go to the Neath

result, you were saying... I think a great performance, clearly our share

of the vote has gone down, we have done enough in a lot of very poor

ten seats to see the challenges off and that gives us another five years

to build in government and continue delivering for the people of Wales.

Disappointing night for the Conservatives, the way things are

shaping up? We have a little way to go yet. But all your target seats in

the Northeast... I am disappointed with Wrexham, I thought we would do

better than that. But certainly Jan has held on, that is good news.

Yes... It is a small team. Since the general election last year, people

from other parties have spoken to me with a mixture of fear and

admiration about the campaign strategy that your party employed

last year and again, it was being spoken of in pretty hallowed terms

right up to tonight in some of the target seats, people feeling

unsettled about the way you were targeting. What went wrong this

time? Comparator last time? To be quite frank, I cannot comment

on the North East. It is an individual thing. It is down to the

local candidate. We were honestly successful in Gower last time and

hopefully we might be successful tonight. We will see in due course.

It really is an individual thing, I think, and I don't quite understand

where you are coming from when you say people are concerned about the

way the targeted... Not concerned, impressed. They were not being

critical, they were being envious of the way the strategy worked for you

last year. It took everyone by surprise, you had roaring results

and people were nervous this time about how the strategy would work.

They had good cause to be I suppose, but it has not translated so far

into the results we would have liked to have seen. What are your thoughts

so far on Plaid's performance? You are up on vote share, but not by

much. It is early days. The North East has not been 1 of our

strongholds. The early phasing will not be easy in any event. Another

point to bear in mind in general, touching on what Warren was saying

about the local campaigns, it in Wales people get their information

from London-based newspapers. Most of the news they get is from the

London centric BBC and therefore a lot of the campaign is either local

or determined by UK wide factors. The instance, I congratulate Labour.

I think the Labour Party in Wales has worked well. Most of the debate

is about what the UK Government is doing or not doing. That has not

helped the Conservatives, just as the infighting on the EU issue. I'm

not sure the anti-Semitism with Corbyn has a big factor in Wells,

but nevertheless, there is an air war. Take our result with Nigel

Copner. I'm sad he did not win, but he is and able candidate. I'm going

to stop you. We have a declaration. I, being the deputy constituency

returning officer at the election held on Thursday the 5th of May 20

16th, hereby give notice that the number of votes counted each

candidate at the election is as follows. Welsh Liberal Democrats,

916. Plaid Cymru, the party of Wales, 9566. The Welsh

Conservatives, 3160. The Wells Green Party, -- the Wales Green Party,

743. Welsh Labour, 2443. UK Independence Party commie 2149. --

UK Independence Party, 2149. I hereby declared that Dafydd

Elis-Thomas has been duly elected. Dafydd Elis-Thomas elected once

again brought Dwyfor Meirionnydd -- for Dwyfor Meirionnydd. We have had

a flurry of results, so let us go through a view of them in the tail.

Let us go back to Aberconwy will this all Janet Bean Saunders

re-elected for the Conservative Party. A vote of 5 to 5%. -- of 35%.

A proper 3-way marginal this 1. Turnout of 49% which gives her a

majority of 754. We also had Montgomeryshire. The sound was very

poor, so I've will run you through the full

There was a turnout of 40% and a majority for Russell George of 3339.

It does take a look at Neath. There we go. Gwenda Thomas standing down,

so Jeremy Miles the new candidate for Labour. Plaid Cymru in 2nd

place, Ukip 3rd and Conservatives in 4th place. Now we are going to get

another result. Kirsty Williams is on the stage... No, we are not

seeing it. We are not going to the results. We saw the pictures, but no

1 else did. On radio you certainly did not hear it, so all good. I

didn't see it either. I give notice that the number of

votes recorded the each candidate is as follows...

Grenville Ham, Green Party, 697. Gary David Price, Welsh Conservative

Party, 7728. Thomas Anthony Hargrave Turton, Ukip

Wales, 2161. Kirsty Williams, Welsh Liberal

Democrats, 15800 and 98. A big majority. Let's go straight to

Aberavon on. The total number of votes given to each candidate is as

follows. Glenda Marie Davis, Ukip, 3119. Bethan Jenkins,

Plaid Cymru and, 4176. David Francis Jenkins, Conservatives, 1342. David

Rees, 10500 and 78. I give public notice that David Rees is duly

elected as even the sensitive for Aberavon. -- as the representative.

The total number of votes... David Rees carries on as the AM for

Aberavon. Let us go back to that big result for Kirsty Williams in Brecon

and Radnorshire. Let's hear what she is saying. I don't want to keep

people long because people have had a long night, but could I begin by

thanking the deputy returning officer, Sandra Matthews and the

electoral staff at Powys County Council and everyone here this

evening for the professional way the election has been carried out. Can I

thank my agents and the campaign team. They are like my 2nd family

and I am so grateful to the efforts all have you had made to achieve

this outstanding result this evening. It is the best ever result

that I have had in Brecon and Radnorshire and that is down to the

hard work of a dedicated campaign team. I would also like to thank my

family, especially my family and -- my husband and mother-in-law, who

keep things going when I am out pounding the pavements. Most of all

I would like to thank the people of Brecon and Radnorshire. It has been

my greatest privilege to represent them in the 1st 17 years of

devolution and it will be a continued privilege to do so over

the next 5 years. This is an amazing constituency, for its Iran and

mental -- well-known for its environmental beauty. I suspect we

will have the highest turnout of any constituency again and I am so proud

of that, and I am proud of the community that are willing to come

up in their hundreds if not thousands to protest against the ill

thought through educational proposals in this county. I stand