Assembly Election Part 3 Election 2016: Wales

opportunity will not occur now. Thank you very much. Let us just say

how things are stacking up in the count in Cardiff then. Our reporter

is looking very fresh face. Have you been to bed? He is still going. Who

is counting what and how are we getting on?

We have had the Cardiff South and Penarth declaration. Labour held it,

as expected. As for the other three, we are hoping to get declarations in

the next hour or cue. Cardiff West looks like Mark Drakeford health

Minister will hold on by the skin of his teeth. It is a much closer fight

than expected. Plaid Cymru's candidate is pushing really hard,

going from third into second place. Cardiff North and Cardiff Central,

much more difficult to tell. Cardiff Central, I'm told, is a flick of a

coin at the moment. It is 838 vote majority for labour as it stands and

we're looking around that figure it when the votes are actually counted.

The Liberal Democrat candidate said, I won't know until they declare as

to how it has gone. It is really that close. As the Cardiff North, it

seems it is more like a couple of hundred votes either way. The

Conservatives looking a little more worried than Labour at this moment,

but again it seems a little bit too close to call. We are still waiting.

Cardiff Central, we are talking about the Lib Dems chasing hard and

a potential gain with a big student population in Cardiff Central.

Tuition fees, you would have thought, not such a popular policy

there, and yet they could take it. Yes, absolutely. All the Liberal

Democrat officials and activates I've been talking to by saying it

feels so different to last year when they were campaigning in Cardiff

Central. -- Liberal Democrat officials and activists. They lost

quite considerably to Labour last year. They have felt in the last

year that people are willing to give them another chance in Cardiff

Central, a seat that they held up to the 2011 assembly election, when

they lost it by those 38 votes. It is all to play for and it could be

very, very close once again. OK, James Williams in Cardiff, thank you

ever so much. Plenty to look forward to. Some tight results coming up in

Cardiff, as predicted. Absolutely. Up until this point, I think we have

seen Labour perform pretty strongly. The Vale of Glamorgan, I think some

of the bits and pieces we are hearing is that Labour are looking a

bit more comfortable than the Conservatives. But obviously we will

have to wait for the result, echoing a little bit about what James was

saying about the situation in Cardiff North. Clearly, it is going

to go right to the wire in some of those seats in the capital. Lets

talk to Lord Peter Hain, former government minister of many

portfolios. Good morning. What do you make of... Bore da. You keeping

a close eye on development is in Wales? I certainly am. Having done

the network TV programme for the BBC, following it very closely. It

is a better night for Welsh Labour than we might have expected, given

the national position and all the questions and challenges that have

been on the national UK Labour leadership under Jeremy Corbyn.

Carwyn Jones and his colleagues have done much better than some might

have thought. A terrible blow in losing my close friend Leighton

Andrews in the Rhondda and Leanne Wood had an extraordinary personal

victory there, for which she deserves great credit. On the other

hand, a tremendous victory for Lee Waters, who I think will be a very

bright star in the Welsh assembly. That is an Llanelli, which Plaid

Cymru hopes to win. Moving up to North Wales, the Tories hoped to

take seats from us. If you look across the whole of Wales, the

Tories won Gower from us and they won the Vale of Clwyd from us and we

have held those two seats for Labour in the assembly. That shows the

Tories are not advancing as much as they had hoped. What went wrong in

the Rhondda, do you think? I can only speculate that Leanne Wood is,

her personal profile, having catapulted at the election... I have

do interrupt. We're going to get Carwyn Jones' result from Bridgend.

Thank you for joining us. I declare this result in English and it will

be followed by a Welsh translation. I dour my thing, being the returning

officer at the 5th of May election, do hereby give notice that the

number of votes recorded for each candidate at the election is as

follows. Charlotte Barlow, Wales Green Party, 567. George Deborah,

Welsh Conservative party, 6543. Carolyn Jones, Ukip Wales, 3919.

Carwyn Jones, Welsh Labour, 12,100 66. -- 12,166. Jonathan Pratt, Welsh

Liberal Democrats, 1087. James Radcliffe, Plaid Cymru, 2569. There

are 137 rejected ballot papers and I do hereby declare that Carwyn Jones

is duly elected. Carwyn Jones re-elected for Bridgend. He has

represented that constituency since 1999. There we go. A comfortable win

for him. Ten out of 45% and a comfortable majority. If we look at

the share of the vote, Labour on 45. The Conservatives in second place

and Ukip third, Plaid Cymru fourth. The change since the last time, down

11% for Labour. Down 4% for the Conservatives, and up 15% for

Bridgend for Ukip. A small increase, two, four Plaid Cymru and the

Greens. Labour to Conservative swing of 3.6%. Lord Hain has stayed with

us. Your leader is back safe representing Bridgend. Knows a prize

there. No, and Carwyn Jones deserves enormous praise. He has really been

the towering figure of this Welsh election as First Minister. I think

he has done a lot to make sure that the Labour result in Wales has been

much better than would have been expected across the UK, given the

picture across the UK. Having said that, we are not in any position in

Wales to start winning the kind of seats we need to win to win the next

general election. So it is a good result for the assembly for Welsh

Labour, but not the kind of results you would have expected in mid-term

with an unpopular Tory government with the steel crisis, there was a

crisis of the Tories making wisely, and the indifference in their

incompetence particularly. You would have expected us to be doing much,

much better in our hearts and seats. That hasn't been the case. --

Hartland seats. There are big questions for UK labour, but a pat

on the back for Welsh Labour. Not so veiled criticism of Mr Corbyn from

you, as was perhaps from Leighton Andrews in an earlier interview. On

the UK level, you have a very big problems and that is down to the

leadership and the anti-Semitism row. Is that what you are aiming at

there with your comments? Welsh Labour couldn't insulate ourselves

with the media overwhelmingly coming from London at a UK level and TV and

on radio and in the print newspapers, regrettably. We couldn't

insulated ourselves from what was happening at a UK level and there is

no question that the UK Labour Party in this Welsh election has not been

a plus for us. I did a lot of my campaigning in Llanelli and go and

we were fighting against the messages and reputation coming down

from London. -- Gower. It's the strength of our candidates there and

in Gower, as well as the Welsh Labour brands that we were able to

hold onto those two seats and to make sure that Welsh Labour on the

night has done better than might have been expected. Your performance

is despite Mr Corbyn, and he hasn't been an asset. You saying you would

prefer another leader? No, I am not saying anything about the Labour

leader at a UK level. Jeremy has a big mandate from the membership. He

got 60% of the votes just nine months ago. I don't see that being

overturned in the near future very easily, if at all. I think that is

not the question. The question is, how can Jeremy Corbyn himself, as

the UK Labour leader, get us back into a position where we can start

to advance in Wales again from the dreadful result we have in the

general election last year? There is no site yet from the Labour

leadership in London that they are clear or compelling and convincing

as to how they are going to do that. That is the question they have to

answer. Which is why I was asking you personally, would you prefer

another leader? Clearly, you don't see him as an asset, you see in as a

problem, and causing difficulties for the party in Wales, surely you

would like to change, despite his mandate. As I have said just before,

and you can keep asking me the question and I respect your

professional right to do it. This is not about whether Jeremy should go

or not go in my mind at this moment. What this is about is his answer,

and the Labour leadership's answer as to how the party can get back

into a position where there was no question of us losing the Rhonddas.

How we can get back to the question in our Labour heartlands of winning

again and beating the Tories again in the general election in those

marginal seats, like Gower and the Vale of Cline -- Vale of Clwyd. That

is a question that Jeremy Corbyn has not yet answered. If we are going to

advance, he needs to do so. The future of his leadership depends on

whether the answer he gives and the leadership he presents is convincing

enough. Thank you very much for bearing with us throughout that

result. Let's go over to the panel. We have some new faces. I was just

looking at what the voter was, given the extra results will stop outputs

that one side and introduced my guests. Fresh faces to us, but they

have been up all night, as have we. Your patience is requested. And to

the pickles, former Welsh Conservative Chief of staff. Also

with me, Jocelyn Davies of Clyde Comrie, and AM who stood down. I

don't know if you are missing the nerves or butterflies. I wasn't,

actually. It has been a strange day. Standing out and not been the

candidate this time, and I assure you I would have loved to be a

candidate with Leanne Wood. We will talk about that in the second. I

will finish the introductions. Lord Mike German for the Liberal

Democrats. Niall Griffiths, Shadow Welsh Secretary, and Sam Gould of

Ukip. You are all welcome and thank you for your patience. Joining us

this morning. Let's talk about the Rhondda result. It is the headline

of the night, undoubtedly. It is the only seat that has changed hands so

far. A 24% swing. Astonishing. What is your explanation? They have

worked very hard in Rhondda. She has had a high profile and she is our

best asset. That has paid off on this occasion. The whole context of

it just worked out perfectly. Does it have a meaning beyond it simply

being a single astonishing result? I think so, because we took the

Rhondda in the first Assembly and it has been with Labour since. She is

our leader and she has been able to capture that. When we were watching

her earlier when she did her little speech, it was a new day is dawning.

She will try to galvanise that now and lead the party forward. I think

that, personally, it was very important. It was important for us

as a party to be able to regain that seat and it is really a significant

change that we have seen so far. Obviously, this will play out into

the regional seats because we will be able to calculate those, so we

won't know until sometime tomorrow. Let's hope it's tomorrow that we

will know. Today, hopefully, we can't sit here till Saturday.

Whether Labour will have a majority or not. Certainly up till now, that

is the only change. Niall Griffiths, a good night for Labour, broadly

speaking, in that you have held on to the places that you have needed

to. Except for this shock in the Rhondda.

We have held on in north-east Wales. I think the Conservatives thought

they would take our, they thought they would take the Vale of Clwyd

and we have seen them off well and truly. We haven't seen the Ukip

search quite as much as we might have thought. It is when it was last

year. I am not saying I'm upset about that, I am not. That has been

relatively contained. The resultant Rhondda has been exceptional because

Leanne Wood has had a high profile as leader. I don't think it's

represents a general view of Plaid Cymru. We have seen it in Llanelli.

We have beaten them well and truly. They didn't take Conwy which you

would have expected. This is very localised. I think it is very much

Leanne Wood and her profile. Other areas, it is very local to

constituency issues. Local council issues, for example. Llanelli was

very close, when I was very close. There are particular issues there.

The AM there has referred to them. All the things people look at when

they vote, it is very complex. They vote on a wide range of images and

issues. On that point, Leighton Andrews, critical of UK Labour and

the divisions in UK Labour and the impact that has had on the selection

in Wales, similarly Peter Hain who we have just heard. It hasn't made

it easy for Welsh Labour, is the message those two men have made. Do

you agree with their analysis? People do look at individual

election separately. We have sophisticated voters. We see this

again and again in Llanelli for example. They will look at what is

happening in Welsh Government and locally. A lot of decisions they

make will be to do with that. There will be influences from UK Labour as

well but I do think people need to look very carefully and not make

sleeping assumptions about the way people vote particular ways. We have

seen differences between similar constituencies in the Valleys. When

Peter Hain and Leighton Andrews say that. When people read about the

anti-Semitism row, for example, and then people go to the polls...

It was unnecessary and unhelpful what's Ken Livingstone did last

week. Most people would assume what you don't get from Labour. That is

no doubt he has upset people, heat it will have affected some votes.

Peter Hain is calling on Jeremy Corbyn is of his game.

What's Jeremy has done now with having an enquiry is important. She

is a no holds barred person. People are seeing that action being taken

and will mum more of that. In terms of the Conservatives, Anthony

pickles, a disappointing night. We still have some of the Cardiff seats

to come but what has gone wrong? Last year, general election was

dominated with Assembly issues like and education. Depo were expecting a

region of that campaign. But we are in a different time altogether.

Interestingly, as Jocelyn said, only one seat has changed hands. It is a

mixed bag. If you look at the three seats we currently held on to. All

three of them in the last Assembly elections looked shaky. They are

positive results. Aberconwy was a three way marginal. Clwyd Valley,

Labour were targeting it. Montgomeryshire, that is a surprise

gain last time round. There are eight constituencies left to go and

some are important ones. In terms of the performance of your

party and of your leader, you were riding a crest of a wave when you

look at previous election results. 2011 Assembly elections were the

best you have done and then last year, shocking everybody the waves

swept to power in some of the seats, Gower for example. Then there was a

great deal of admiration and even a little fear I think for the strategy

you had in terms of targeting your call vote and getting them out.

People were worried about that. But that strategy seems to have failed

in this case. The 2015 general election was a different campaign to

this one. If you think about the simplicity of the narratives in the

2015 general election. When I had written out along economic plan I

could see was a point on focusing on the economy. But isn't it about your

call voters? It has been a different direction. At the weekend, I

described it as a cocktail of distraction from across Offa's Dyke

with things like the Panama papers and Brexit. People in other parties

have said on the doorstep those issues have come very much to the

fore of people's minds. There is no getting away from that when you look

at how you target your messaging. Can I make the point that... I will

come back to you because I know you haven't had your say. We're waiting

to hear from the Welsh Labour leader, Carwyn Jones. Oh, he's not

there yet. Maybe there is time to squeeze in a few more comments.

Ukip, Sam Gould, Carwyn Jones isn't quite ready. In terms of the Ukip

performance, it looks broadly along similar lines to last year.

Obviously, you didn't field candidates in 2011. How would you

analyse the performance this evening? It has been a fantastic

performance. In many of our constituencies we are surpassing 20%

in terms of our performance in Merthyr Tydfil, in Caerphilly, is

slowing and Torfaen. We saw 23% there. That is a massive

improvements for us. We are building up on last year and it shows real

good prospects for the regional vote. Thank you very much.

We can now hear from Carwyn Jones. I think he can here. Good morning and

congratulations on present. You must be disappointed about losing Rhondda

and Leighton Andrews. He will be a loss to the Assembly

and the party. Disappointing to see Leighton Andrews loses seat. We have

won Llanelli, we have won Gower. Optimistic about doing better than

people thought we would do at the beginning of the night. We haven't

seen a Tory surge. Yes, of course, used as appointment in Rhondda. But

certainly encouraging signs especially the seeds we lost in the

general election that we have held. There are encouraging signs for you

but you must be disappointed about Blaenau Gwent. What happened there

where the majority was down to 600? There seems to be a number of local

issues that Plaid Cymru capitalised on and they become the vehicle to

express people boss Mike discontent. That seems to be what happened

there. It wasn't a pattern that was repeated in other constituencies in

the area. What do you think went wrong in the

Rhondda? It is difficult to know because it

isn't something we saw coming. We will have to look at what happened

in the last few days. I suspect. It isn't clear. We will see what the

result was, but it was unexpected. It is out of kilter with the other

constituencies around it. That is something we will have to discuss

with Leighton Andrews and party members.

Your poorest performances have been by two former controversial

ministers. You have had some tough words with both of them, you have

sacked both of them at different times. Could this be down to their

personalities putt-mac no, I don't think so.

They were particular circumstances invoked constituencies. What we saw

there were the local issues that were specific to those two seas but

we didn't see in neighbouring constituencies and we have to find

out how we deal with those issues and how we fight back in future.

On that point, both Leighton Andrews and Peter Hain mentioned lessons to

be learnt and questions to be raised about the UK leadership. Jeremy

Corbyn did visit but you had to deal with the divisions within the party

on a UK level, the row over anti-Semitism and so forth. But you

agree there are lessons to be learnt there and that it hasn't helped you

at all? It hasn't helped. The lesson is it

is important for politicians in London not to say things that are

unhelpful to colleagues and the rest of the UK. But that is not the

reason why we were not successful in the Rhondda. It isn't the reason for

the swing we saw in Blaenau Gwent. We have helped our ground, held

season loss of the general election that is encouraging. We have asked

you throughout the campaign to speculate on any deals. It is 6:30am

after the election. Ie Ready to start talking potential deals or is

it still too early? Given Leanne Wood's success with the one you

would pick the phone up to? Let's see what the arithmetic is

like when we have all the results declared. All parties will assess

their position. It isn't clear what our numbers will be at this stage.

I'm sure there will be a lot of thought given to the future looks

like at the weekend. What is important is to get a government in

place that is stable. We will have to see what happens in the next 24

hours and beyond. You must have a figure, as low as you will go to go

alone. I don't know what our final share of

the vote or number of seats will be. At the moment we are focusing on

making sure we maximise the vote that we hold of the challenges that

we had in some seats, particularly those we lost in the general

election. We have to take you step-by-step. Thank you very much

for joining us from Bridgend and congratulations again on your

personal victory. Vaughan Roderick, a very good morning. Our Welsh

affairs editor has joined us. What did you make of this? This is the

first time we have had your analysis.

It is a fascinating election although as so often with Welsh

Assembly elections not much will change. You have this funnel effect

of huge variations particularly in the Labour vote producing narrow

variations in the number of seats. Without doubt, occur singly

disappointing night for two parties. The Welsh Conservatives and the

Welsh Liberal Democrats. The Liberal Democrat could see it coming. This

was the last election of the old cycle for the Liberal Democrats. The

rebuilding begins for them next year. This was always good to be

damage limitation. The Conservatives did not see this coming. Two months

ago we will update conference, they had the clear game plan. They knew

who their voters were, they were going to hit them relentlessly,

talking about health. When things go wrong? I think they started to go

wrong when Andrew RT Davies and announced that he was planning to

back Brexit. I don't think he needed to announce a decision at that

stage. It immediately made things difficult, it immediately created

almost War situation between himself and David Cameron. He lost the

confidence, certainly, of the bulk of the Welsh Conservative MPs in

Westminster and some members of his own group in the Cardiff Bay group.

Everything that could go on wrong has gone wrong for the Welsh

Conservatives in terms of the campaign. Those north-east Wales

results, if they are matched in Cardiff, will, I think, spell the

end of Andrew RT Davies's leadership. Labour will be pleased

tonight. He will lose, who is retiring, told me weeks ago that

never end estimate the lack of Carwyn Jones. He is a lucky general.

The distribution of the Labour vote. It is down substantially but the

distribution of the Labour vote where it absorbs big falls in

stronghold seats while holding up in marginal seats is exactly what

happened in 2010. If Labour comeback, a lot depends on three

seats in Cardiff and available Morgan. If Labour comeback with 28

seats, they will be delighted. Would they go it alone?

It depends. You have some wild cards. You have Kirsty Williams,

possibly another Liberal Democrats, we don't know. You also have Dafydd

Elis-Thomas. I don't know if you heard his speech when he said he

won't comment on national results tonight.

That may give Carwyn Jones pause for thought and maybe there is some

case-by-case deals that can be done with Kirsty Williams and David Ellis

Thomas, if he's on 28. If he drops below that, who knows? It takes two

to tango. He has ruled out deals with Ukip and the Conservatives and

I have great doubts whether Plaid wants to do a coalition deal. What

do you make of Leanne Wood 's' victory? What does that say about

the position of the party? Do you think the results we have seen

across the valleys really show that Plaid are bedding in?

I am going to quote one of Mike German's favourite phrases. It is a

favourite phrase of the Liberal Democrats. Where we work, we win.

What you see in the Labour strongholds in the valleys,

particularly where Labour control the local councils, where Plaid have

put in the work, not just Rhondda, it is Caerphilly. Plaid have had

good results. What they didn't get this time that they got in 1999 was

good result in seats where they have done no work. They had good work in

places like Pontypridd, Kai Winn Valley. Where they put in the

effort, they showed they could still compete with Labour for that

left-wing vote. There is one great myth in Welsh politics. If you look

at the polling, it is very interesting. We have this concept of

the Labour voter in the valleys as being this elderly, retired miner

sat in a pub with a pint. That is not the case. If you dig down into

the opinion polling, Labour running third amongst voters over XT at the

moment. Labour's strength, along with Plaid, is with the under 40s.

Labour is around 40%. Labour and Plaid are fighting for the same

constituency, which is the constituency of the younger voter.

To pick up on the question of the Tory campaign, with the three

results from Cardiff, they will be key in terms of final numbers.

Cardiff North and Vale in terms of the Conservative campaign, got to be

questions about Brecon and Radnorshire, in particular. They are

up against huge personal support Kirsty Williams. But a complete

failure to capitalise on the momentum that was won in the general

election, where they completely reversed the majority held by the

Liberal Democrats as a result of infighting over the selection of one

of their candidates. In north-east Wales. Both of us reported on the

Welsh conference. Traditionally the platform in which you start building

the bedrock of the campaign. Alan Caines, seems like hours ago, denied

there was any difference. David Cameron was a matter of feet away

from Andrew RT Davies. The most high-profile farm in Wales, using

his speech to talk about how a Brexit, which Andrew RT Davies

campaign for, would ruin the Welsh farming industry. Behind Welsh

Conservatives were furious with David Cameron for the way he did

that. It was not a good start. The dynamics between Labour in London

and in Wales, and also on the Tory side, they have been fascinating

throughout the campaign, the way they have ebbed and flowed. Almost

mirror images of each other. Thank you very much. Preseli Pembrokeshire

is declaring. Davies Paul Windsor, Welsh

Conservative party candidate,, 11,000 123 -- 11,123. Bob Kilmister,

Welsh Liberal Democrats, 1,677. Howard Lilyman, Ukip Wales, 3,286.

Dan Lodge, Welsh Labour, 7,193. John

Osmond, Plaid Cymru, 3,957. Paul Davies, I give public notice

that Paul Davies is duly elected as the Assembly member for the Preseli

Pembrokeshire constituency. APPLAUSE

There we go. Paul Davies is re-elected for the Preseli

Pembrokeshire seat. Turnout of 50%, a majority of 3930. A prominent

member and if we look at the share of the vote... 39% for the

Conservatives, Labour in second place with 25. Plaid Cymru on 14,

Ukip on 12, Liberal Democrats on six, the Greens on four and the one

interesting one... Let's look at the share of the vote. The movement

there. We are going to go to Cardiff, because we think Cardiff

Central is imminent. We are waiting for the returning officer to take

control. We can see Eluned Parrott with a big rosette. She is the one

hoping to take this seat from Labour and they are waiting... Can't see

the Labour candidate, Jenny Rathbone, so maybe they are looking

for her. What do you read into that? She's not there. She has done a

runner? They are looking for her. It is a crucial constituency for the

Liberal Democrats and Labour in terms of numbers. I am told it is

the only constituency in Wales without a fan. It is!. A quick word

about Paul Davies... Here she is. Jenny Rathbone, a former journalist

and former TV producer, so there we are. We have two Big Brother

contestants. There we go. We might have the results.

SHE SPEAKS WELSH I, the undersigned, being the

constituency returning officer for the above named constituency of

Cardiff Central, year by give notice that the total number of votes

recorded for each candidate at the election was as follows. Jane Croad,

Independent, 212. Mohammed Islam, Ukip Wales, 1,223. Eluned Parrott,

Welsh Liberal Democrats, 9,199. Jenny Rathbone, Welsh Labour,

10,116. Glyn Wise, Plaid Cymru,. 1,951. Amelia Womack, Green party,

1,150. Joel Williams, Welsh Conservative party candidate, 2,317.

Daniel... Oh, gosh. SEPAKS WELSH. Beyond dimension

present has been duly elected to serve as member for the

constituency. Jenny Rathbone. Here we are. Maybe she was busy writing a

speech which she was about to deliver. Shaking the hand of Eluned

Parrott, who hoped to take the seat. Jenny Rathbone remains in Cardiff

Central, key seat in a battle ground. If we look at the share of

the vote, 39% for Labour and the Lib Dems, 35%. The Conservatives on 9%,

Plaid Cymru, 7%, Ukip, 5%, and the Greens on four. The change since the

last time, Labour just edging up 1%. The Liberal Democrats down 3%. That

was a crucial result, wasn't it? Absolutely crucial for two parties.

Virtually guarantees... We haven't had all the regional votes, but we

can virtually guarantee that Kirsty Williams will be the only Liberal

Democrat in the next Assembly. It puts her in a very weak position in

terms of speaking in the party and a weak position in terms of not having

the sort of finances and backing that group status for which you have

three members. It is also crucial for Labour. Every single seat is

crucial for Labour. These southern regions, remember, any seats that

Labour loses, it has no chance at all of getting a list offset. It is

-- it is one of the total. Labour are creeping up towards what they

really thought would be the top limit of their expectations at this

election. You can do some back of the envelope calculations. They were

at birdie, they have lost the Rhondda. -- 30. We will wait to see

what Cardiff North and the Vale of Glamorgan could bring. It could be

they maybe lose eight list seat in West Wales. The range is somewhere

between 28 and 26, which the party would have taken up the start. That

is why you still, at 6:45am, it is a slightly muted reaction. A lot of

joy implied Comrie for that one result in the Rhondda, but still

people... There is no cause for celebration from anywhere. The other

factor that I haven't spoken about, but I'm sure you have, is that you

have the new presence in the Assembly of Ukip. That is something

that the other parties are looking at and thinking, well, what is that

dynamic going to be? Some of them hate Ukip, others are suspicious of

Ukip. All of them have their doubts about how coherent group might be

and they worry about what that might do to committees and so on. There is

that wild card, as well. I should have said when I was saying you have

had two parties which would be pretty pleased, the party which will

be most pleased is Ukip. There were genuine questions because so much of

their money and effort has gone into the Brexit campaign, whether that

boat that was showing up in the polls would show up in -- on polling

day. Not just in Wales, this is big for the party in the UK. We have had

predictions in Wales varying from five to one pundit saying nine or

ten. That is stretching it? You can make calculations by looking at the

constituency numbers from particular regions. From my mental

calculations, I think, for instance, South Wales West, if the regional

vote is the same as the constituency, you would have two

Plaid Cymru list members, one Ukip, one Tory. It wouldn't take much to

switch that to two Ukip. You can be absolutely certain that there will

be at least one in every region. I am pretty certain there will be a

second Ukip one in South Wales East. South Wales Central I think is a bit

dependent on those seats we are waiting to see.

Julie Morgan, who gave us that quote from early on, saying she wasn't

confident. It is interesting there was one dead man walking in this

election that virtually no one from the Assembly seeing lose his seat

was David Mele who was number two on the regional list. It may be the

fact the Conservatives have failed to win any constituency seats in

South Wales Central and Plaid Cymru has won and Rhondda, that may allow

him to creep in. I would imagine that we are in a situation where

there is a definite, probably, three way fight between conservatives,

Ukip and Plaid for the last list seat in South Wales Central. Just

one thought. If Kirsty Williams is the only member for the Lib Dems,

Presiding Officer? The theory is doing the rounds. My understanding

of it is Kirsty Williams was interested in being presiding

officers if they were three Liberal Democrats. To pull out back from

active politics so there was no Liberal Democrat voice in the

chamber, I think that might be difficult for her. People would

understand if she took the attitude she has laid everything on the line

for her party, she has left everything on the field for the

party despite its going into a coalition in Westminster which she

deeply disapproved. Privately, she hated the idea of the Liberal

Democrats being in coalition with the Conservatives in Westminster.

Even people within the party would say, the Liberal Democrats hope -- O

Kirsty Williams more. She delivered her best personnel result. Let's go

over to Felicity on the sofa. Let's get Mike German's views on

that. A fantastic personal results for Kirsty Williams. Can I put this

in context. I agree with Vaughan Roderick. I would like to say the

worst points for us as a party was last year's general election. As

Bourne said, we are on a new cycle. What I was looking for and what the

party was looking for was progress from last year. We know where the

popular vote, so far, from the figures we have seen, we have moved

forward in the popular vote. The Corner has been turned and

unfortunately it didn't turn far enough addressing Cardiff Central.

It is difficult decision now for Kirsty. It was a fabulous personal

result. We don't know, and I think it'll be unwise for anyone to say,

how these regional votes will be different from the constituency

votes. We can't translate them immediately over. People will vote

as they think is set on has been a campaign for Labour voters in most

of Wales not to waste their list vote and move it elsewhere, that

might happen. Those votes are being counted. We will have to wait and

see what happens in this last section of the last 20 seats which

have been delivered. Certainly, the only positive thing I am drawing

upon from today is, to positive things, one is the very substantial

result, incredible results, given we lost is by 5000 votes last time, as

she has a huge majority which is much bigger than she ever had before

in Brecon and Radnorshire secondly, we have started to turn around a

natural vote and to restore that vote. Next year's local elections

will be an important step for us to take even further.

Mike German, thank you. You have been waiting patiently to say you're

forced with this on how you think... Well, to share your analysis on the

Green Party. It is an exciting night for them. We fielded more candidates

than ever before. We are aiming for success on the lists and we haven't

had those results yet. Who knows happen? The seismic shift in

Rhondda, Kirsty Williams's success. The eternal optimists, the Green

Party! On the doorstop people saying they want to change and people have

demonstrated that. Very active members of Plaid went Labour have

said they understand the second list vote is a waste in some cases. Has

Ukip crowded you out? You want to present itself as the alternative

but Ukip has been doing so successfully for disenchanted

voters. They have been doing that very well and tonight will prove

that. The future they are presenting is a world away from ours. They are

one extreme and we have another. The other politics of division -- they

are politics of division. We don't have a Ukip candidate here to be

offended by that. Thank you. Mike, to go back to the Liberal Democrats

and very building, I know you say party membership is on the increase

and that gives you grounds for optimism but when you have got 1am

in the Assembly, assuming that is the case, you don't get recognised

as a proper party, you don't get support structures. All the

scaffolding is taken away. It is going to be a very hard job. I have

been there before, we have done this before. It is easy to do in a local

election for a whole constituency. We know what to do. If you look

around the English local government elections you will see some

incredible victories that people are scoring for the Liberal Democrats in

these last 24 hours. I don't for one minute think we don't know how to do

it. Always in our parties has been based upon the volunteers, the

people who will turn out, the people who will knock on doors. You

don't... It is your members who knock on the doors and do that kind

of work. We will all quote you to night on where you work, you win a

point. Vaughan Roderick was quoting Mike German. I think it was good,

old-fashioned doorknocking. The way we have seen the impact in the seats

you mention in Caerphilly, Blaenau Gwent and Rhondda. We don't know

what has happened yet in Cardiff because they haven't been announced.

Maybe Cardiff West is where we have knocked the most doors. They may be

local circumstances that we have charismatic candidates. I think that

shows the Labour vote is soft. It is a soft vote and it is therefore the

taking if we are prepared to lock doors. Labour's share is down.

Jocelyn is right on knocking doors that of the video get away from the

fact that speech that Leanne Wood gave in 2013 when she committed her

leadership winning Rhondda was an important milestone. It set the

course for all of the UK press attention they had been getting

stuck she is that a very talented team behind who have gone out there

and copied SNP's narrative when it comes to things like question Time

and Andrew Marr. The success of her being on those UK TV debates lusty

was significant. There were no Northern Irish leaders there. They

muscled their way in. Nia Griffith, is the Labour vote

soft? It is important what local councils do. Where you have well run

councils, for example, Bridgend, you get the response you get in the

results we have seen. A positive response to Labour. In other areas,

whether from external factors because they have been cuts coming

down from the Conservative governments down from Westminster,

or whether it is because there are some councils that aren't getting

things right with local people, there are opportunities for people

to come in. The Labour Party have to take that seriously. We are going to

go to Cardiff North. We have got a declaration.

The Cardiff North is it immensely. Bass constituency.

Ie the undersigned being the constituency returning officer for

the above named constituency, Cardiff North, hereby give notice

that the total number of votes recorded for each candidate is as

follows: Fiona Burt, independent following bass 846.

Jayne Cowan, Wales Conservative Party candidate, 13000 and 99.

John Dixon, Welsh Liberal Democrats, 1130.

Julie Morgan, Welsh Labour, 16700 and 66.

Haydn Rushworth, Ukip Wales, 2509. Chris von Ruhland, Wales Green

Party, 824. Elin Walker Jones, Plaid Cymru,

2278. At the end of mentioned person has

been elected to serve as member for the said constituency. Julie Morgan.

Julie Morgan, she remains as the AM for Cardiff North and it was quite a

fight. There you go, we finally got the results. If we look at the shed

of the vote. There we go. No, that is Cardiff Central. We will bring

you Cardiff North as we get it. Julie Morgan securing Cardiff North.

So, what did you make of that? We only have one seat changing hands in

this whole election. I know, it has been a long mice for one seat! That

is another stunning results for Labour. I think I'm right in saying

she has increased her majority. Did you notice the turnout is coming out

at 57%. Highly than Brecon and Radnorshire. That is quite a prize.

That is a stunning results for the Labour Party. And for Julie Morgan

personally. Jayne Cowan is a very popular local councillor with a big

base in the constituency and yet Julie Morgan has pushed her back

very effectively. Valerie, good morning. Thank you for

joining us. What did you make of the results so far and looking at

Cardiff North in particular? Just reflecting was Richard was

saying, it is a bit of an odd election. We have got is one massive

story coming out of Leanne Wood's wing of Rhondda. In Cardiff North,

the turnout was high to stop is it because there was a clear campaign

on the ground? It makes people excited and makes them turnouts to

vote. We will be with you shortly but it

is coming up to seven o'clock. It is morning. It is seven o'clock on

Friday the 6th of May so we will be looking again at some of the

results. We have Cardiff North in and we are waiting for a few others.

If you have been with us all night you will know the big story is the

Rhondda. It is now seven o'clock on Friday the 6th of May.

Good morning, it is the 6th of May and it is 7am. Welcome if you are

just joined us and huge congratulations if you have stayed

with us all night. What a night it has been. The results of the

election are still coming in. The headlight so far, Labour are set to

be by far the biggest party in the new Assembly, but are not likely to

have a majority. One of their big beasts won't be returning to Cardiff

Bay. Leanne Wood beat Labour's Leighton Andrews in the Rhondda. We

will have much more for you between now and about 9am. Live interviews,

analysis and coverage of the results that are still coming in this

morning. It has been an election night with many ups and downs all

over Wales and our political correspondence is with us. Tell us

how it all happen. An interesting night. The story so far is Labour

staying intact as the biggest party in Wales against the backdrop of

plenty of them saying they have had a better night than expected. There

is a standout result from one seat and that is Leanne Wood 's' victory

in the Rhondda, the plight Comrie reader, the Battle Royale against

Leighton Andrews, the former AM cabinet minister, but a Cabinet

minister no longer. Around 5am today, we got this result from the

Rhondda. I do hereby declare that the said Leanne Wood is duly elected

for the Rhondda constituency. A new dawn is about to break in Wales.

Here in the Rhondda, and new dawn has already broken over the valleys.

People have voted for change. A majority of more than 6700 votes.

Labour gone, big swing to plight Comrie. Big relief, Leanne Wood has

an achievement she can point to after her 4-mac you -- four years.

Its heartland in the north and South West, but at this stage, if we were

seeing a big change in Plaid sweeping into power, they would have

had more Rhondda style results such as in Llanelli. Labour kept as

majority there, and Plaid has one before -- one Rhondda before. The

Labour machine couldn't hold back Leanne Wood. Here is what defeated

Leighton Andrews had to say. I think there are lessons for the Labour

Party which we need to consider, lessons locally, lessons at a Welsh

level and lessons for the party at a UK level. What I am pleased about is

what I am hearing, the victories for my Labour colleagues across Wales. I

am pleased to have been part of Carwyn Jones' come team for this

election. We have seen of the Conservative challenge in many parts

of Wales and we are delivering strong leadership and strong results

with Labour candidates across Wales. Let's pick up what Leighton Andrews

said there are about seeing of conservative challenges,

particularly in north-east Wales, a of seats in places such as the Vale

of Clwyd. Last year, they couldn't repeat the success this year. Tory

target seats in the Gower, in Cardiff North, where we just had

that result. Labour vote down in some places, up in others. Cardiff

North Labour increasing their majority. All in all, a good night

for Labour. Peter Hain, former Welsh Secretary, says better than expected

despite the loss of his close friend. Where the Tories have a

strong incumbency factor, they have done well. In Clyde West, where

Darren Millar has been returned as the Tory AM and we can hear from him

next. It is disappointing when you fail to win seats that you want at

the general election, of course it is. You mustn't underestimate what

we have achieved. When you look at the reduction in the majority in the

Vale of Clywd, next door, we had a very hard-working candidates, who

has pounded those streets every day for many weeks. You fail to

underestimate just the enormous achievement that it is.

Disappointments, another for the Tories in Brecon and Radnorshire,

where they couldn't beat the Welsh Lib Dem leader, who has increased

her majority, a major victory for her. The party have thrown

everything into keeping that seat, as you might expect, following the

collapse in support. I dare say it Kirsty Williams especially so. Here

she is speaking earlier. It is a great result, the best result I have

ever achieved in Brecon and Radnorshire in terms of a majority

and in terms of share of the vote. A massive turnaround for our fortunes

here in Brecon and Radnorshire, after the devastating loss of the

seat last year at Westminster. Only one seat has changed hands, the

Rhondda, we still haven't had the Vale of Glamorgan, regional seats.

Things bode well for Ukip. They are increasing their share of the vote

in seats right across Wales. Which brings us neatly onto the leader of

Ukip, Nigel Farage, who joins us from Westminster. Good morning. Good

morning. The regional seats you tidied it had not been announced

yet, but predictions between five and ten, what are you predicting an

earring? I have always said we will get five, we will and I hope we get

a couple more. Either way, it is a breakthrough for Ukip. We have

battled away in previous Assembly elections and never got across the

line. It is a breakthrough for Ukip in Wales. What does Wales mean to

you? It is by to the UK, but no one. Point number two, it is one of those

parts of the country that has been so badly damaged our industrial

policy and buy membership of the EU, leaving us unable to control and run

industries that used to provide so many jobs. How Welsh will your

approach be in the Assembly, and how tailored towards Wales will it be,

or is it just a vehicle for you to talk about Europe? I don't apologise

for one moment that our Assembly members will talk about the most

important political question of our lifetimes, namely whether we should

be an Independent United Kingdom or not. Of course we will do that, but

equally we will engage positively in the Assembly and, if we can help to

make things better, we will. What will they talk about after June the

23rd? Because that will be whatever that's results... That is the

settled will of the people of the UK. You move on? I very much hope

that we do become an Independent country and that Wales can see great

benefits for its fishing industry, its steel industry, and many other

things. But of course, one of the big questions is, why is health

delivery so bad in Wales? Why is devolution in many parts of Wales

not working out as well as people had hoped? Our voice will be there

and if we can act constructively in any way, we will. In terms of

Europe, if it did lead to this referendum, led to Brexit, and then

Scotland were to decide to go it alone, is that a price worth paying

to get out of Europe, the break-up of the UK? If we vote for

independence, the UK, it will be strange to see Scotland voting

against independence. To do so with oil as low as it currently is, I

honestly don't think it will even be on the agenda. Nigel Farage, thank

you very much. Let's catch up with the results in Carmarthen were. It

happened a short time ago. I, Ian Westlake, constituency returning

officer for the Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire constituency

declare that the total number of votes given to each candidate was as

follows. Valerie Bradley, Wales Green Party, 804. Allan Brookes,

Ukip Wales, We clearly have big sound problems

there. But surely the graphic. There it. Conservative Burns remaining in

Carmarthen were. Let's look at the share of the vote there. --

Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire. That isn't working,

either. Let's go to the Senedd, where donor has broken. What's the

picture looking like now? The sun is coming up. You can see it over my

shoulder. Seems to have got all the constituencies by one or two. We

thought it might be worth having a look at what has happened in terms

of analysing numbers. Here in the constituencies, not a lot of change.

One big surprise. Maybe also look at the surprise of the seats that

didn't change hands and look at why that didn't happen. Let's look at

the share of the vote. This is how it looks after the votes we have had

so far in terms of constituencies. Really, those views we had watching

at 11pm last night might have seen the opinion poll we were showing. It

is not 1 million miles away from not. Labour on 35%, Plaid Cymru on

21%, conservatives on 20% and Ukip on 13%, Lib Dems on 8%, Greens on

2%. Apart from the big changes we haven't been expecting, one change

we have seen, of course, a seat changing hands is that from Leanne

Wood 's, victory in the Rhondda against Leighton Andrews. This is

what happened there. Getting a majority of the vote. 51% versus 36%

for Labour. We look at the change since 2011. What happened, they're

very clearly... Leanne Wood, the Plaid Cymru votes have been sucked

away from Labour. 2000 more voters turned out this year than five years

ago. It is a shift from the Labour Party to Plaid Cymru. That hasn't

happened elsewhere. We would be at the beginning of the night, the

Conservative target seats. I have chosen one in particular, Wrexham.

It is equally valid, this analysis, in terms of the veils. Holding on in

Wrexham despite a strong challenge from the Conservatives on 30%. Yes,

Labour is down on their 2011 vote, but the other parties aren't getting

close enough, partly because Ukip is there taking votes from a little bit

of everyone and that means, unlike in Rhondda, when all the seats

switched to Plaid Cymru, elsewhere we haven't seen that happening.

Whether Conservatives have had a disappointing campaign, not getting

the momentum they were hoping for, the other parties also not being

able to land the blows they were hoping to. At the same time, a

concerted effort from Labour in those areas they were most

honourable, most at risk, has meant that we haven't seen any changes so

far in the constituencies. However, there may be interesting times

ahead. We have had pretty much all the constituencies now, but it is

the regional, the 20 regional list seats we are waiting on in the next

couple of hours. That is where we will probably seek seats changing

hands. Thank you. One seat has changed hands so far, but much more

to come may be on the list seats. Let's go to the sofa. More fresh

bases here on the sofa, including the Secretary of State for Wales,

Alun Cairns. Carolyn Harris of Labour and Sam Gould of Ukip, who is

still here. Alun Cairns, this is turning out to be a disappointing

night for the Welsh Conservatives. In terms of the swing of the vote

from Labour to the Conservatives, it seems pretty strong, but not strong

enough to have made those gains in the constituencies. I would love to

be sat here saying, look, we got over the line in Wrexham, in Cardiff

North, the Vale of Clwyd. Sadly, not to be, but the swing the overall

from the Labour Party to the Conservative Party has been pretty

good. We were in a position whereby in order to make progress from those

14 seats, we had to win seats, we had to win constituencies, rather

than the list. Clearly, our targeting has had some effect. In

Gower, for example, an excellent 6% swing, building on the sorts of

results we had at the general election. Clearly, it is always

difficult to get Conservative voters out at an Assembly election compared

to a general election. That is the problem? If you compare it to five

years ago, you had your best ever performances at Assembly elections

five years ago. Yes, but that resulted in the list seats rather

than constituency seat. That performance is pretty much the same.

You could argue it is a better performance because the percentage

of the vote has risen in some of those key seat we have targeted, but

hasn't risen enough in order to get through. This time, of course, there

are predictions that Ukip will take six seats, maybe more, maybe fewer.

Let's take six seeds as an example. That is 10% of the make-up of

Assembly membership. That means the other main parties are then fighting

for the 54 seats or whatever the balance is between what you give

will take because they only need to get 7% of the vote. Therefore, we

are being squeezed in that area. Other parties also. Was it a mistake

to targets which fire on Labour? To try to challenge the Ukip threats?

You are particularly vulnerable. People said we were vulnerable to

Ukip at the general election. It is far more than one issue. We need to

look at where we have done well, places like in Gower with a 6%

swing. Nearly there doesn't cut it. I won't

make excuses. I hope people will also look at the percentage of the

vote which demonstrates the Conservative Party is in a strong

position to build. Even in seats that we have narrowly lost, we have

come from significant majorities because the majority is held in

percentage terms at the Assembly elections by labour we have now lost

by a small margin, a pretty big, they would be considered safe seats,

but we have come close. How much pressure does this put on

Andrew Arty Davies? When you look at the performance of the party

leaders, Welsh Labour have run a presidential election, stacking

everything around the person of Carwyn Jones. They have had a good

night. A victory for Kirsty Williams in her

seat of Brecon and Radnorshire. It leaves Andrew RT Davies looking like

the kid at the back of the line? I will look at it like that but on

the basis we have scored exceptionally well by coming very

close in some seats Labour would have said were safe seats. On that

basis, there are some pretty good results. I would love to say we got

over the line as we did in the general election, in seats where I

could demonstrate these are the results.

The Vale of Glamorgan looks like it is about to declare.

There is a minute to go for the Vale of Glamorgan, of course, a Labour

hold at the moment, you are holding -- hoping to hold onto it, are you

confident? Yes, the smile on Jane's face tells

it all. Let us listen and see.

Held on the fifth of bay 2016, do hereby give notice the number of

votes recorded for each candidate is as follows.

Lawrence Andrews coming Ukip, Wales, 3662.

Denis Campbell, Welsh Liberal Democrats, 938.

Ross England, Welsh Conservative Party candidate, 13800 and 78.

Alison Hayden, Wales Green Party, 794.

Jane Hutt, Welsh Labour, 14600 and 55.

CHEERING Ian Johnson, Plaid Cymru, the party of Wales.

3,871. The number of ballot papers rejected was as follows, want of an

official Mark, nil. Voting for more candidates than the

voter was entitled to, 44. Writing or mark by which the voter

could be identified, nil. STUDIO: The result for the Vale of

Glamorgan, a very relieved Jane Hutt, holding onto a key

conservative target seat by a majority of 727.

We will get reaction from Alun Cairns.

Not a single target seat one? It is my seat, I know it

exceptionally well, that was from a result of 3700, a safe seat in

Assembly terms for Labour. Clearly we had that as a target. A seed we

desperately wanted to pick up. Ross England has run her very close. To

win by 700 is a very good swing to us but not good enough.

Should Andrew Arty Davies have taken up the mantle in the Vale of

Glamorgan, the way Kirsty Williams and Leanne would have, put his stake

down for the constituency? Would it have made a difference? I

don't think so, we had an excellent candidate in Ross England, one of

the brightest candidates, this is certainly not the end of his

political career. He has a long political career in front of him,

just 23 years old. His results, not good enough to win

but bringing it down from a 3700 majority, demonstrates a very strong

win. Your reaction to holding on in terms of target seats?

We have done exceptionally well, Wales Labour have had an excellent

night. The Conservative Party in Wales have paid the price of

national policies. You are referring to UK issues?

Benefit changes, that sort of thing. I am not sure that is the case. The

same UK policies apply in Scotland for which there has been a stunning

result for the Conservatives in Scotland.

We will return to this weather UK wide issues have affected all of

this, shortly. It is time to go back to Beth.

Let us speak to the winner in Cardiff North, Julie Morgan,

re-elected in that constituency after quite a fight, you must be

relieved? I am very pleased, particularly with

the turnout which was nearly 58%. That must be one of the highest in

Wales. Pleased with the majority, about 3000.

Very pleased. 3667, more than you had last time.

Certainly, doubled it, I think. It was a tight fight. You didn't

sound confident. We had a quote from you at the beginning of the evening

saying, I am not confident. Your husband clarified you are never a

confident person. We are -- were you being cautious?

I went into this election not sure whether I would win, whether I would

get a reasonable majority. I have felt there is every election I have

been in. Never presumed I would win. I was actually referring to the poll

which came out yesterday which indicated a swing to the

Conservatives and I thought this might affect my seat in Cardiff

North. I am not confident in terms of winning.

I wait and see what happens. What do you make of the results in wonder

where you have lost one of your big names, Leighton Andrews?

Bitterly disappointed, Leighton was a close friend and ally of Cardiff

North and has come and campaigned with me. So, it is an awful blow. I

am very sorry about it. We have heard from members of your

party tonight. This morning, saying, lessons are to be learned

particularly on a UK level. A good night for Welsh Labour but the UK

picture has not helped you at all, would you endorse that?

I would say that with doubling my majority in a tight seat, I don't

think the issues that have happened in labour in the UK have had much

effect at all. It is possible to UK issues have affected the Tory vote

because that came up a lot on the doorsteps.

You have represented Cardiff North in the Assembly and Westminster,

clearly, you know the patch well and are looking forward to the next five

years. Yes, it is a huge privilege, I am

looking forward to it enormously and the things I can do with the people

of Cardiff North. Like you.

Congratulations. Off to bed now, I am sure, Julie Morgan, having won

Cardiff North. Over two Plaid Cymru, good morning.

How is it going for you? We are still waiting for the

regional boat. The troopers are here to the end. It has been a good

evening in terms of the fact we had a brilliant win from Leanne Wood,

and significant improvements in Ceredigion. Blaenau Gwent was so

close. Upset not to when that. Caerphilly as well we ran Labour

closed. Good results coming back through.

Have you been doing the maths, how will it affect you in South Wales

West? We are waiting to see whether we

have been successful in winning anymore on the regional list. We

hopefully can make that game. Myself, if elected, will be part of

a strong team of Plaid Cymru Assembly Members.

Would you be one of those Plaid Cymru members keen to do some sort

of deal with Labour? I don't think I have any personal

appetite to go in with Labour again especially after the way people like

Leighton Andrews talked about us in terms of being a cheap date, putting

blame on Plaid Cymru firm only being in power with them for four years.

It is time to discuss, should I be elected, with the party membership,

to see how many seats we win. You wouldn't like any formal deal?

You would be saying, no, don't do it?

I would be this time. The red Line to me last time was getting ever

friend and more powers for Wales, I see no reason why we should prop up

labour this time. Thank you very much waiting there.

Let us go to Scotland. A busy night. You have been keeping an eye on it

in Glasgow. Pretty empty there now? Yes, the clear up well and truly

under way. Following a busy night. And a successive -- successful night

for the SNP, a historic night according to Nicola Sturgeon, making

the point hers is the first party to win three consecutive terms of

office in Holyrood. Her party hasn't quite got to that

threshold they need just yet to get a majority, they need 65 seats.

They are on course. I have seen some interesting comments on Twitter now

by Professor John Curtis, a real authority on Scottish politics. He

has suggested there may be some element of risk attached to this.

Things may not be as straightforward as everyone has assumed all night

for the SNP. We wait to see what will happen exactly. They are close

to 30 seats still to come. We will see whether that takes the SNP past

the mark, as we expect. Elsewhere, a very successful night

for the Conservatives in Scotland. Ruth Davidson taking a seat in

Edinburgh, pinching that from the SNP. They have seen

It has been another very disappointing night for Labour here

in Scotland, following that disastrous showing a year ago in the

general election, of course. They have taken further steps back today,

overnight, as well. The one consolation for Labour is that this

system that we use in Wales and in Scotland, the electoral system,

means a party can lose constituency seats, but also be compensated to

some extent when that happens by picking up seats on the regional

list. That is exactly what happened in Glasgow, because here the SNP

have won all eight Holyrood seats for Glasgow, taking some of Labour.

What that has meant is that Labour have then picked up four regional

seats here in Glasgow. In contrast to Wales, where we know you get a

four regional members for every region, here they have seven. Labour

have picked up four of those seats for Glasgow. Two have gone to the

Conservatives and one has gone to the Green party. Labour have been

compensated to some extent, but Kezia Dugdale, Scottish Labour's

leader, has said quite frankly that she is disappointed that this is a

very disappointing night. The party must learn lessons and move forward.

Without doubt, another historic night for the SNP. Their members

were here, rejoicing every time a result was announced and they have

gone away in high spirits, as you would expect, as they await

confirmation that they have reached that figure, that threshold that

gives them another majority in Holyrood. Thank you. Time for you to

pack up and leave there, too. Thank you. Let's look at the scores on the

doors in Scotland. The SNP, the total so far, 59 seats, that is down

two. Conservatives 22, they gained 11. Labour, a bad night for them,

17, down 12. Greens, five, they have taken three so far. The Lib Dems on

four, they have taken one. Ukip, no impact yet. If we look at the

change, the share and change, since the last election. In the

constituency vote, this is. Not the regional one. At one, the SNP.

Labour down nine, conservatives update, Lib Dems up a smidge and the

greens up one and Ukip not really moving. We have two very good and

keen Scottish watchers. You used to advise the SNP. There was talk of

them taking every seat. They won't do that now, but they will be very

pleased. They were very optimistically predicting last night

at 9pm that they might win the majority on constituency seats

alone. That was just showing off, arguably, and the Scottish don't

really like parties showing off. The SNP are on course for a third term

in office, a second majority. Five years ago, that was remarkable first

time it happened. For it to happen again with such certainty is once

again quite remarkable. What is the SNP's secret? Even in office, they

don't seem to suffer. It takes ten years to become an overnight

success, that is the story of the SNP. It has been a long and slow

bill. With every successful election, they build another

successful result. A lot has to do with the behind-the-scenes stuff,

the information gathering, the identifying the boat, using their

thousands of members to get that vote out. The SNP have a tendency to

overreach themselves in terms of the hype. I am old enough to remember

three by 90 three. There is a danger that poor expectation management is

taking Bocas offered is a really good result for them. This is

genuinely excellent. I am interested in what is happening further down

the list. This is another terrible result for Scottish Labour. Really

awful. They clearly still haven't hit the bottom. The conservative

result is really interesting, because there is a stark contrast to

Wales. The story of devolution so far has been the Welsh Conservatives

doing better in every election, the Scottish Conservatives on life

support. That has shifted, greens have outperformed the Lib Dems and

Ukip will not get a seat in Scotland, which is going to be in

stark contrast to what we will see in Wales shortly. Thank you for now.

We will be back with you shortly. Let's go to the spin room.

Welcome back to the spin room. Watching you on TV tonight and

people will be looking at their phones. A lot of interaction on

social media discussing those results as they come in. We need to

talk about that. Jo and Rowan. Joe, tell me what you have seen tonight.

You have been looking at all of that engagement on Twitter. We have been

collecting the engagement on Twitter. Good for us is that there

have been loads of tweets. I can show you some. This screen shows you

the last seven days of twitter. We have had thousands of tweets around

the Welsh elections. If we drill into that data is a bit deeper, we

can see that engagement over the last day has actually been really

great. Steady and constant throughout the day, 10pm, when the

polls closed, big spike in data. Dipped a bit and as the results were

coming in, where as you might think it would decrease as people go to

bed, we have gone up and up through the night to 3am, Faure. 3500

between 5am and six M. That is people actively talking as results

come in. Big results like Leanne Wood in the Rhondda. We also analyse

the sentiment and language used. Sorry, we analyse the language used

for sentiment and emotion. If we look here, we can see that that

5:05am moment when that was announced, we see a volume spite. In

terms of positivity, it shot through the roof. Where it was a lowest

point of the day as the first results came in, people disappointed

that engagement figures were low, people were disappointed with the

results, people not doing as well as they thought. Positivity after that,

it has gone up all the way through. You have been looking at what has

been said, but Rowan, from your point of view, do politicians take

to Twitter? When you see people talking about politics on social

media, does it get you worked up? It is interesting to see the impact of

the data now that the voting has closed. The impact needs to be

happening in the run-up to the election. I don't think

politicians... They might have these social media profiles, but they are

not using them properly, especially to connect with young people. You

can see, obviously, the turnout has been horrific. Some of the stats we

have seen overnight has been so bad. It will be really interesting to see

the age gap. Usually, it is the older generation who are putting the

most votes in. Is that something you can tell in terms of who are the

ones talking about...? Well generally speaking, when we look

into it, nearly 60 to 65% of tweets are retweets, not original written

content. This is generally speaking, not a bad thing, certain parties

have very good networks. They get a tweet, they retweet, they share it,

and everyone in that group retweets and shares. Where it looks like some

parties have a massive presence on social media, it is actually to do

with them being quite savvy and clever on social media. Having said

that, not all of the politicians are that savvy media. They are not

really using it to give us anything real. We can find out exactly what

they are tweeting about by watching the news or reading the manifesto.

They not actually -- we're not seeing the personality behind it.

That is something young people will find easier to identify with. Thank

you both very much. Some lessons to learn, plenty of torque about the

politics online. Thank you. Let's look at the picture

in England now, where they have been counting more than 2500 seats in

local councils. 80 councils declared so far out of 124. Our Parliamentary

correspondent is in Westminster and has been keeping a close eye all

night. Pretty bad night for Labour, is that the picture? And mixed bag,

to be fair. Not as bad as Jeremy Corbyn might have feared. Not as

bad, either, as his critics might have hoped. Labour have lost seats,

but is not the 150 or so that they were predicted to lose, and not the

hundreds that some in the party feared they might lose. Not enough

to convince Labour that Jeremy Corbyn is on course for Downing

Street, but not bad enough, either, for his critics to use it as an

excuse to strike against his leadership. He said this week he

wouldn't lose any seats, perhaps not the best thing to say ahead of an

election. Quite the promise, that. He has been an MP for more than 30

years, but only on the front bench for eight months. Managing

expectations, that great game of politics, not something he has ever

had to play before and in fact, having announced on Tuesday that

Labour were not in the business of losing seats, he didn't expect to

lose seats, his spin doctor the next day had to try to clarify and

explain what he meant by that. What his critics will say, it is the

first time that an opposition leader has lost ground in the first

elections in which they have bought. What his supporters will say is,

these elections will last for years. Four years ago, when Labour have

done well to hold on to seats, in places like Crawley and Southampton.

Briefly, on Ukip, we see the 28 councillors they have had so far, an

increase of 20. How will it pan out for Ukip? Ukip are happy with that.

Solid gains for Ukip in terms of council seats, but of course this is

just the warm up act for Ukip. They are channelling all their energies

at the referendum next month, on June the 23rd. Nigel Farage will

hope to use the Ukip performance in these elections across the UK as a

springboard, really, for the big issue for him which is Brexit. Thank

you, David. James Williams is at the count in Cardiff. Some of the

results very worrying for the Tory party from Cardiff. Yes, absolutely.

They had their eye on a number of marginals. They were second to

Labour in those marginals, hoping they could squeeze Labour in some of

those seats. Cardiff North was counted here, they missed out on

that. They missed out on the Vale of Glamorgan are down the road. They

missed out in Wrexham, Delyn, Clwyd South, a number of seats in the

north-east. This strategy they had of moving their representation in

Cardiff Bay from one based mainly on regional top-up seats to one based

on constituencies hasn't worked out. I asked a senior Tory source

earlier, what has gone wrong for the Conservative Party? He said, I don't

know, but we have to get to the bottom of it. The inquest will begin

shortly and my feeling is that Andrew RT Davies is in trouble. As I

said at the start of the night, he had a clear challenge. The

Conservatives have increased the number of seats they have had in the

semi-macro in every election to date. It looks like they will do

that will stop in fact, it looks like they will lose seats from the

current 14. At the start of the night, I said the knives could be

out for Andrew to -- Andrew RT Davies. As soon as we get the count

for North Wales, we will cross over. When you look at that poor

performance, the momentum was completely lost from the last

general election. Absolutely. The question during this campaign was,

would the internal divisions of the EU referendum hamper them, or would

they be able to take advantage of that momentum generated during last

year's general election, when the unexpectedly won a number of seats

from Labour? The veil of Clyde and Gower, for instance, when they were

able to represent that performance tonight. As a party, they have been

very frustrated with this campaign. Events have overtaken what they

hoped would be a campaign completely dominated on Welsh Labour's record

as a government since the start of devolution. Thank you, James. I am

afraid we have do go. I, being the regional returning officer of the

election of members to serve in the National Assembly for Wales for the

North Wales electoral region held on the 5th of May 2016, do hereby give

notice that a number of votes recorded for each party or

individual candidate in the region is as follows.

The Welsh Assembly 9,409. The assertion of Welsh local

independence, 1,865. Welsh Conservatives, 45,468. Plaid Cymru

for North Wales, 47,701. The official monster raving loony party,

1,355 votes. UK Independence Party, 25518.

Wales Green Party, 4789. Welsh Communist Party, 586.

Welsh Labour, 57528. Welsh Liberal Democrats, 9345.

And, finally, young Mark John, independent, 926.

The number of ballot papers rejected totals 1434.

And I do hereby declare that the under mentioned are duly elected as

the four members for the electoral region.

Gail, Nathan Lee, Ukip. Griffith, Plaid Cymru, the party for Wales.

Isherwood, Mark Allen, Welsh Conservatives. And Michelle Margaret

Brown, UK Independence Party, Ukip. STUDIO: Two seats going to Ukip,

which is quite ever sell them. And 12 Plaid Cymru, one to the

Conservatives. So, two for Ukip, Richard?

I am not surprised, given the results in North Wales, that is what

we were expecting. I think we will see a series of Ukip members being

elected to the national Assembly, quite a change for Ukip and the

national Assembly. We can see that speech from Janet

Howarth, for Labour, here is Kia Griffiths.

Let us have a look and see if the graphics are ready.

These are the numbers on a turn out of 43%.

And this is the share. Abolish The Welsh Assembly on 5%,

the Lib Dems on 5%. The Abolish The Welsh Assembly is

worth mentioning because it may come to play in some of the other

regionals, if they take votes away from Ukip. And if that fourth seat

is in question. Labour are down four compared to the

last election, and these, after a long night, here are the changes.

This is all the excitement! And there will be a new MEP for

Wales. Edwina, you are standing down, and

odd election for you, not standing for the Gower, you were there since

1999. It was a decision I took myself, I

am delighted Gower has remained Labour. This is the exciting bit,

and a worrying time in terms of how the Assembly will function with Ukip

representation, a party that only stands to be against things, it will

be difficult for the other political parties.

There is a member shaking his head there.

Let us look at the performance of Labour, to lose a colleague and

close friends, Leighton Andrews. Everyone is expressing surprise but

Leighton was aware of the campaign being run. Leanne Wood has been on

the TV screens since the general election but this is very high

profile. And a successful campaign. Rhondda has not always been Labour.

That pressure has come through again. It has been liable to change.

We are confident for the next elections.

In terms of machinations going forward, would you encourage some

sort of deal, it is unlikely you will reach the 30. 28, 27, is that

when you would look for a partner? I wouldn't use the word,

machinations, there will be proper negotiations. Can I say the First

Minister will probably be in a position to go as a minority

government, the Scots did so successfully.

Is that your advice? I don't give advice, I am a private citizen. It

is very important the First Minister looks at the situation, discusses it

with colleagues. With 28, it is feasible to go it alone and

negotiate this through. Devolution is a process. People still want this

to succeed. There will be a willingness in other parties with

getting policies through. Let it calm down now. We need to go to

rational thoughts. One of your big projects, the black

root for the Mfour relief route that will be more difficult for Labour to

deliver. It will probably end up in a public

inquiring. We will await the outcome. Then, discussions commence.

This is a project that industry desperately needs for West Wales to

encourage economic development. A lot is said about it in public, let

reality settle in and let it go through process.

You will miss being a minister, what is next?

I won't miss it, once you have made the decision, that is it. Too many

state in politics for too long, too many men in grey suits, it is good

having a younger generation coming through.

Wise words. Maybe you could broach that?

Let us hear from Ukip, Sam Gould, your first seat of the night on the

North Wales list. How does it feel? Amazing. Nathan

Gill, our first elected AM, getting the maximum number of obtainable

seats in North Wales, two seats is a great start to these regional

results. We are now seeing our breakthrough into the Welsh

Assembly, something no outside party has been able to achieve. History in

the making for Welsh politics and Ukip.

You are an unknown factor. Help me out. What will Ukip be like in the

Assembly, will you coalesce around a leader given you didn't seem able to

during the election campaign? We will work constructively for the

benefit of people in Wales, putting forward our policies where we can.

We had a constructive manifesto working to improve things in Wales,

helping the NHS, education, the economy, policies we want to be

constructed for. We want to be constructive but hold the Welsh

Assembly to account, break up that cosy consensus where people think

they can get away with things. We want to oppose things like

increasing the number of Assembly members, opposing tax raising powers

which was promised to the people of Wales, fundamental things we stand

for. The consensus within your own party,

never mind the wider Assembly, will Nathan Gill's leadership be

respected? The fact is, when we look at the

membership and a selection of candidates, he topped that list, his

popularity among the membership is very high.

Neal Hamilton on this programme had to be prompted I don't know how many

times before he would say Nathan Deal was a good leader. It was

lukewarm then. Odds on such a night for Ukip.

I support Nathan Gill as bidder and the vast majority do support him.

We're very pleased what he has been to achieve.

Have you anything in common once the Europe issue is out the way?

As I said, there are two things, scrapping the Severn Bridge

devolving economic development down to local councils, opposing tax

raising powers without a referendum which was promised.

A word on the Lib Dems losing, Aled Roberts going?

It was inevitable when the overall vote in Wales dropped by the

percentage it did. If it were perhaps in 12 months, it might be a

different thing. It was very much a Lottery for us, fourth place in

these regions, it was only a touchdown which made it happen. If

it hadn't been for a Ukip intervention of the sort we have

seen now, then I'm certain we would have retained members.

If you don't get any other seats, what role do you see for Kirsty

Williams? It is not for me to say to her what

role she wants to play. We have been in this position before of having

only one MP, back with Alex Carlile, when the leader of the party was the

only MP. A party is more than its elected people, it is also the

membership. I think what will happen for us is the membership had to step

up, undertake all the sorts of things we need to do, particularly

with a major focus on next year's local elections which we are good

at. How Kirsty wants, it is her thinking time, we have to give her

that space. In terms of who she can work with,

we haven't seen this sort of situation within the Assembly. I

understand you saying there is a president. This Assembly is unknown.

There are lots of new people, a new party, the Lib Dems are down to one

person arguably. It is a new situation. There is some

president for the Labour Party if it wins 28, 29, wanting to go on their

own. They stumbled before, came unstuck, especially when one of

their members became an independent. There are great dangers. The most

important thing for politicians as a whole is you must have a stable

Government which can deliver a programme, which is effective for

the people of Wales. I know the Assembly has been around since 1999

but it is still, as it acquires more powers, it has to use them properly,

and requires all members to support them.

We are hoping to get the other list results before we are off air at

just after 9am I think it is, is that right?

That is it, 9:15am. Friday the 6th of May, welcome to

our ongoing coverage of the results of the

Nathan Gill and Michelle Brown will represent the party in North Wales.

In a surprise result, Leanne Wood has one in the Rhondda over Labour,

over Leighton Andrews. So far, we have all the constituency

results nearly. Most of the regional ones are expected.

I do hereby declare that Leanne Wood is duly elected for the Rhondda

constituency. Here in the Rhondda, a new dawn has

already broken. People have voted for change. A big victory for Leanne

Wood, overturning a Labour. Although Plaid has won its heartland seat in

the West, it couldn't win the marginal seat of Llanelli. Labour

increased their majority there. Nevertheless, Rhondda is a big

disappointment for Labour. Couldn't beat Leanne Wood. This is what

Leighton Andrews, the defeated Labour AM has to say. I think there

are lessons for the Labour Party which we need to consider, lessons

locally, lessons at a Welsh level and lessons for the party at a UK

level. What I am pleased about is what I am hearing, the victories for

my Labour colleagues across Wales, I am pleased to have been part of

Carwyn Jones' campaign team for this election. We have seen off the

Conservative challenge in many parts of Wales and we are delivering

strong leadership and strong results with Labour candidates across Wales.

Questions by Labour. One of the question is, well they have to form

a majority with someone? Leanne Wood says she's not tribal. We have heard

from other Plaid AM Tuesday they don't want to. They might be able to

go it alone, given that they have held off the threat of the Tories in

north-east Wales, in places like the veil of Clwyd. With the Tories have

one, they failed to win any new seas, but kept seats they had,

increased their majority in some places. For example, Darren Millar

was the Clwyd West AM, and still is. He we heard from him earlier. -- we

heard from him earlier. You are going to take us somewhere else.

I hear nothing any more. Let's go to Newport. 492. Welsh Labour,. Welsh

Liberal Democrats, 6,784. There was coalition, 618. When we apply the

system, the following result is the result that I will declare. I hereby

certify that the persons elected and returned to the National Assembly

for Wales to serve as members for the South Wales East electoral

region at the election held on the 5th of May 2016 are as follows. Mark

reckless, United Kingdom Independence party, Stefan Lewis,

Plaid Cymru, the party of rails, Mohammed Askar, Conservative and

Unionist party. We will now make STUDIO: Mark reckless into the

Assembly, as is David Rowlands. Once again, in this regionals seat, two

going to Ukip. Oscar Ash got the Conservatives and Stefan Lewis

securing their place on the South Wales East seats. It used to be two

Conservatives and two Plaid. Ukip coming out in strength, as

predicted, this is what we are expecting giving the results and

swings we have seen. Absolutely. You see the impact their with the

Conservatives and Plaid. This is... We can maybe come back to Plaid's

performance later on. They are going to lose some ground on the lists due

to the performance of Ukip. Let's have a look at the party vote there.

Southeast Wells was the region Ukip were saying they were the most

confident of getting a second regional seat. It is an interesting

region, because you can imagine them taking votes of the Tory right in

Monmouthshire, but also in disaffected Labour votes in the

valleys. They got a second seat in North Wales, as well. Two regions

down, they have four AMs. A good night. Mark reckless, a potential

leader of the party in Wales, I would strongly suspect. The current

leader has described his job as heading cats. Who knows if he wants

to carry on? It won't be easy for him, keeping a check on all those...

It is going to be very difficult. Ukip is a pretty factional

organisation. They enjoy boisterous exchanges, but there are also lots

of tensions around the personality of Nigel Farage. Obvious tensions

between Douglas Carswell and Nigel Farage. One of the reasons I suspect

Reckless might end up leading the party in Wales is he seems to get on

with most people in the party. Thank you both. Let's go to Cardiff Bay

are a win is on his magic carpet. What we are going to do is show that

we have 39 of the constituencies now declared, all bar Cardiff West, the

grey patch at the bottom. In terms of the 40 constituencies, very much

as you work, apart from one change, which is the yellow Plaid Cymru in

that sea of red. Leanne Wood, as you have discussed. We can also show you

the new regional seats. Across North Wales, we have the two Ukip

alongside the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru. If we go down to the

Southeast region that we are hearing from now, again, two new Ukip

members. One for Plaid Cymru, one for the Conservatives. This is the

changes we have seen now in terms of Wales. We have the share of the

votes, as well, for the vote so far. After all the constituents, 35% for

Labour, 21% of the Conservatives, 20% for Plaid Cymru, and Ukip

gaining those members, 13% of the votes, this is on the constituencies

so far. Let's show you now, open up the floor, and show you what we can

do in terms of the share of the vote. First of all, we are going to

look at how this works historically. We can go right back to 1999, 30 5%

for Labour. We talk about the ebb and flow of support for Labour since

then. Look at the result. 35% again, the carbon copy in 1999. The first

time, big change of scene. I was saying earlier but the Conservatives

have gone from strength to strength in each of the Assembly elections we

have had since 1999. For the first time tween 2011 and 2016, their

support drops. A slight increase for Plaid Cymru and disappointing night

for the Liberal Democrats, bowing down to 8% from 11%. Now let's open

up our flora and show you what that means in terms of seats here in the

Assembly chamber. As we were expecting, still another fair few

seats to go, but at the moment, we have Labour on 26, the Conservatives

in second place at the moment on the constituencies with eight. Tied in a

sense with Plaid Cymru, so we will have to wait and see how the other

regional seats go. That will be an interesting battle in the race for

second place. Then we have the new members, those four Ukip members and

Kirsty Williams as the lone Lib Dem. That is how it looks so far. We have

all those members are still to be declared on the regions, so for the

moment, we will cover these up, come back to you with more information

later. Back to you. Let's go to Neath for the count for the South

Wales West regional. Thank you. This is the declaration of the result for

the South Wales West electoral region.

I, Stephen Phillips, returning officer, regional returning officer

for the South Wales West region, declared that the total of votes

given to each party and individual candidates at the regional election

in South Wales West was as follows. Abolish the Welsh Assembly, 7137.

Welsh Conservatives, 25,414. Official Monster Raving Loony Party,