Part One Election 2017: Northern Ireland

In just a few moments, the polls will close and the counting in the

2017 general election will get underway. Never before have there

been so many close battles across Northern Ireland. Stay with us, we

will bring you every result as it happens throughout the night.

Hello, we are going to be on air until all those 18 seats are decided

and until we get a full picture of what the next Westminster government

will look like. Before that, at 10pm exactly, we will bring you the joint

broadcasters exit poll which is conducted exclusively for the BBC,

ITV and sky. It revealed the majority the experts did not see

coming a couple of years ago. We will join our experts in their count

centres and we will be hearing from the winners and losers of those

knife edge battles. Not least here in Belfast were last time around,

some of the tightest battles were fought. We will see how those seats

will be resolved tonight. And our election hub is where I will be

keeping track of the results during the night and analysing all the

voting patterns with our resident expert, Nicholas White. Who is in

and who is out, out in our virtual Westminster. We will be looking at

the constituencies right across the UK, including the 18 here in

Northern Ireland. Watch this space. And along with that analysis we will

have reaction from our panel of pundits and politicians who will be

keeping me company through the night. We have a few moments ago

before the polls close, so let us have a quick word with Mark and

Nicholas. Nicholas, it will be probably about 1am before we have

any results but we do have some information on the turnout. We have

been getting some figures from polling stations from about five

o'clock and it looks like much the same elevated turnout that we had in

March for the Assembly elections. Maybe slightly up on the 58% we had

in the last Westminster election. Perhaps even mid-60s. Thank you for

now. Of all the tide battles across Northern Ireland, Belfast is shaping

up to have more than its fair share of them, Tara is there to keep an

eye on how some of the big political beasts there tonight. Thank you. I

am at the Titanic exhibition centre where all four Belfast

constituencies will be decided. The polls in South, East, North and west

close in a few moments time and all the ballot papers will be brought

here and you can see the electoral staff are ready to start their big

count of the evening. We will bring you the

picture as it emerges, see who is looking happy, who is looking for

the exit, we will be the first to tell you who are new MPs are and we

will be the first to speak to them. Thank you very much. Here we are

with just moments to go before the joint broadcasters exit poll is

revealed. It is based on voters leaving selected polling stations in

Britain and seeing how they would, it is not done in Northern Ireland

because the particular pattern of electoral politics here makes it too

difficult to include in the wider poll. Remember, David Cameron in

2013 had a total of 336, a majority of 12 and as we hear the chimes of

Big Ben in the seconds running up to ten o'clock, remember how accurate

this poll was last time, despite many people not quite the baby that

it initially. Theresa May called this election to increase her

majority and we are going to find out any second if she was

successful. Here, at exactly ten o'clock is what the exit poll

predicts, the next Westminster government will look like. It is

predicting Conservatives as the largest party. Let us see the seats.

There you can see it, 314 for the Tories, 266 for a Labour and if that

is correct, that is not good news for Theresa May. She had 330 seats

last time around and that is a drop, according to this exit poll of 17

seats and a rise for a Labour of 34 seats. That is a dramatic set of

figures by any standard, let's go to our panel for their reaction. We

have been joined by our political editor Mark Devenport. We should say

that this comes with a health warning, it is simply a exit poll,

not a single vote has been counted, but two years ago, this exit poll

was spookily accurate. Yes and it was surprisingly because everyone

then was talking about a hung Parliament and David Cameron pulled

it off micro and he got the majority he was not necessarily expecting.

This time around, if this proves accurate, the Conservatives with 314

are falling short of the 326 MPs they would need to have an overall

majority in Westminster. We cannot say anything about the breakdown of

local results because the exit poll does not include Northern Ireland,

but potentially MPs coming from here could find themselves very busy

indeed, because we are looking at the Conservatives having to make up

something in the region of ten or 12 seats and the reason I am being a

bit vague about that is because of Sinn Fein not actually taking their

seats, it brings the effective number that you need for a majority

down to something in the region of 324. If that is the case, there are

something like ten seats short and one party might have ten seats. It

would mean that the DUP potentially is seriously play. The amazing thing

about this is if we were to rerun the campaign in 2015 there was a lot

of talk about the DUP having influence, we could be the power

brokers in a hung Parliament, at the start of this campaign, Arlene

Foster rolled that out. They never actually played this at that

particular stage. It is looking like, if the exit poll was accurate

that they could end up in play here. Even before we know one single

result it is fascinating, Northern Ireland perspective. Mark, you will

stay with us, that is good years, we have four other eager panellists and

people's phones and iPads are making all sorts of noises, but I want to

go to Christopher Stalford straightaway, the DBM late for South

Belfast. We were talking before the exit poll was published and you were

wondering ever would be a Conservative majority, 80 or 90,

what is your reaction? I am astonished by the findings of the

exit poll. From a personal level, I find it deeply distressing that so

many of my fellow countrymen are prepared to vote for a party by

someone who has a clear record of sympathy and support for not only

the IRA but almost every enemy in this country has had over the course

of the last 40 years. As you say, they are the normal caveats that,

with polls they will have to see how the evening plays out but it is

clear, if that is the pattern that is repeated, there has been a

serious miscalculation on part of the Conservative Party in going to

the country in this way. Because Theresa May called this snap

election, she did not have to call it, she had to get dispensation or

approval from the House of Commons to call it and the reason she called

it was to remind people at home was to increase her majority, to help

during those Brexit negotiations. She had a majority of 12, a working

majority of 17 and this leaves her short by 12, if this is right, it

has backfired spectacularly. That is absolutely correct. Her decision to

call the early general election, if that poll is correct, has indeed

fired spectacularly, but it was also our position as a party that it was

important that people in Northern Ireland elected members of

Parliament, not only from the DUP, but I would prefer if all 18 seats

were held by the DUP but that is not an achievable goal right now. It is

important that Northern Ireland is represented by members of Parliament

who are prepared to go to Westminster and participate. You

potentially are looking at a scenario, of being kingmakers. I do

not think it is about being a keen maker or not, it is about the

national interest and we are Unionist party and we care about the

United Kingdom and the decisions that we would take would be based

upon the national interest of the United Kingdom and that is the

responsible thing to do. Any unionist or anyone who has elected

to the House of Commons... You would use any leveraged that you had. You

say that, but the thing that matters to me more than anything is the

preservation of the United Kingdom and that is why I am involved in

politics. The preservation of the union, of the four countries that

make up the United Kingdom, I would not say that we would see England's

weaknesses as Ulster's opportunity, we are one United Kingdom and we

should govern and act in that sense and that is the view that I take.

Thank you very much. You're going to stay with us. Let us hear from

vanilla, we also have Alex Kane and Finola O'Connor and Wales have Danny

Kennedy, I just want to hear from you first of all. Did you see that

coming? I hoped for it. I am going to blow my veneer of impartiality

right away. And it is respectable to be for this kind of result. It was

amazing to watch Jeremy Corbyn defy the prognostication is all around

from within his own party, most of the media, including the one left

liberal voice, the Guardian who have been eating their words for the last

week and a half, obviously sort of four seamers, because he fought a

remarkably good fight. How did he do this? We were told if Jeremy Corbyn

does better than people expect, it is because young people who really

like Corbyn and what he represents will have bothered to turn out and

vote. It is impossible to know if that is what has happened, but it is

a there point that that is what may have happened. It is what it sounds

like and if it has happened, that is enormously encouraging for politics

in general and for Britain. I have been talking to young people in my

family in London today who were praying that this would happen and

we are -- Macklemore all out for dinner and some of them normally do

not. Even though Corbyn has struggled to hold his party

together, he did not have enough people to fill Shadow Cabinet posts.

When it came to the bit, he turned out to be more disciplined than

expected. I did not know he had the sense of humour, fun watching him

with Jeremy Paxman who was extremely funny, playing Jeremy Paxman as a

caricature of himself, Corbyn did very well and Theresa May was

appalling. It is interesting, you will have read, as I did and I am

sure many people have, this idea that the more people saw true --

Theresa May during the campaign, the less they liked. The more they saw

Jeremy Corbyn, the more they liked him. I think there is an element of

that but one thing is clear and we have talked about this from about

the second week into the campaign, that Theresa May and the

Conservatives, ran a lamentably bad campaign. From day one, it was

dreadful and it remained dreadful. A really important element here, after

the relentless mocking of Jeremy Corbyn from everyone, for months on

end, there was a feeling that she could just finish M off in one fell

swoop. She had a long election campaign and suddenly people began

to warm to this guy. Forget some of his policies, which are economically

barking mad, none of that mattered. By comparing him against Theresa

May, they found themselves going off her completely, and warming to him.

Another element to bear in mind, are looking at something called buyer 's

remorse? If this is even close, Theresa May called this election to

get a mandate for her Brexit negotiations and that has gone. You

have a House of Commons there, talking about 280 MPs who are

against a hard Brexit, Brexit of any sort, she will have to deal with

them and look at her backbenchers, I bet well over half of her

parliamentary team coming back here will be solved this issue. Too early

to say yet, but when you called for a mandate and you do not get it, I

do not see how you survive. It is a very interesting situation. Just to

read cap on what the joint broadcasters exit poll says, it is

suggesting, it is simply an exit poll, it was accurate two years ago

and it predicted the Conservative majority. It is saying that the

Conservatives will have 314 seats, down 17 on 2015, Labour will have

266, up 34, the SNP will have 34 seats, down 22 and the Liberal

Democrats will have 14, that is up six. That exit poll does not include

Northern Ireland because it is too complicated to factor in what is a

poll that is designed effectively to tell us how the battle between the

Tories and Labour will pan out. Last time around, it is interesting to

look at this, the Conservative and Labour gap was 101 and it is now 48.

Danny, what do you make of it? Theresa May calls an election to

increase majority, she loses seats and she is now short by 12. Clearly

if the exit polls are reflected in the result, there has to be an

enormous health warning with it. The history of these particular polls is

quite good, actually. It is an enormously bad result for the

Conservative Party, for Theresa May and potentially also for the entire

country. It will give more uncertainty, more political

uncertainty at a time when we thought we had had enough political

uncertainty with Brexit and the negotiations and the triggering of

Article 50. Let me also remind Christer and the other members of

the panel, the DUP are not potentially the only pro union party

who are capable of influence in the new House of Commons and I very much

hope that the Ulster Unionist Party will have a part to play in it. I

think the campaign was too long. Seven and a half weeks, it was

called a snap election, a snap election is three and a half weeks.

I am reminded of Harold Wilson in 1970, who had gone into the election

with a huge majority, had the expectation of repeating that

victory and was beaten by Ted Heath. I think there are clear lessons

here, but if that is to be the results, then we could not rule out

a further early general election. Enter Could Theresa May hold on?

There would be considerable amount of disquiet within the Conservative

Party. There will be a body of opinion that might say - it was an

unnecessary election. We had the Labour Party more or less where we

wanted them. OK, she came out and said there was all this opposition.

She had already pushed through the whole business of Article 50 TB, the

Labour Party had not vetoed it. So she could have continued. So I think

that there will be considerable disquiet within the rank of the

Conservative Party if she has led them to an election this which she

has made losses. Her performance has been a factor she has come over as

being wooden in comparison to Jeremy Corbyn. One other point I should

mention. The tumble in SNP votes is quite marked there. The prediction

of them losing 22 seats. There was a feeling they couldn't possibly

repeat the almost universal victory in Scotland they had two years ago.

For them to tumble by that number I think is a surprise. It would be

interesting to know who are they tumbling to. Is there a Labour

comeback in Scotland? Because a lot of the publicity we saw about the

election in Scotland was that it was the Conservatives pushing them. If

the Conservatives made gains at the expense of the SNP where else are

are they losing? They haven't been able to make enough gains. That is

the kind of detail we just don't know the answer to at this stage. I

suppose, as the evening unfolds, we will get a better idea.s That maybe

also, that finding maybe does deserve us repeating the health

warning. Nobody had been predicting that. The question is if that detail

proves inaccurate, what else does here. Interesting situation. It is

only an exit poll. Thank you for your thoughts. I will come back in a

moment or two. Before we go any further at this stage. It's timely

to hear from Tara, who is at the Titanic Centre for us keeping an eye

particularly on the four Belfast seats. I'm sure the results of that

exit poll will have raised a few eyebrows down there, Tara? Yes,

absolutely. News of that really just filtering through here, Mark.

Obviously, we have tight races here in East Belfast, two-horse race. A

two-horse race in North Belfast. South Belfast, pretty tight. Could

be four winners by some judgment. With me is the Alliance Party

candidate, Paula Bradshaw. Is that how you are look at it tonight, one

in four chance? We see it as a one in three. In terms of where the

votes will come from I think it's a race to about 9,000, 9,200. So our

game in this campaign has been about squeezing the centre ground to add

to our vote we obtained in How has the March. Campaign gone? It's gone

very well. We had a positive message. We are very much pushing

for our first cross-community MP in South Belfast. People are resonating

with that, it's a shared constituency now. People are like, I

think it's time. Brexit was an Irishual for some. For others it was

about what's happening with education and health. In many ways

it's been a useful exercise getting around the doors and speaking to the

constituents. We had talk about packs the Alliance Party said no

right at the start. You were leafletting people in South Belfast

looking for Green Party votes, is that not a pack? We weren't looking

for the party to come behind us we were looking for their voters to

come behind us. Is that not the same thing? I don't think. We were

looking for people tactically. I was the only progress who could win. I

would share similar views with the green candidate. It's about

consolidating a coalition ever votes in the progressive centre ground. In

the election time you do what you have to get out and get people

motivated to come out. The problem with Alliance in the past feem feel

we can't win. This time our vote has gone up over recent elections we

have been able to demonstrate to feem people we can win. Hopefully,

they will have turned out today to support us. What about those exit

poll results? It's just an exit poll, looking not such good news for

Theresa May Well I think it's not going to be very good news then for

us in Northern Ireland in terms of trying to get devolution back up and

running. I'm very much concerned about how the next few weeks for

ourselves. They will be very much preoccupied with what is going on in

Westminster. We need attention here, some support to get the talks back

up and running and to get devolution up and running. If you were elected,

if Naomi Long was elected, what would the Alliance do in the

situation of a hung parliament? Similar to what Naomi did the last

time, we would sit on the opposition benches. We would not be there

trying to align maybe who would expect us to sit with the Lib Dems.

That would not be the case. We would vote along our manifesto

pledges and our core alliance principles on any tough decision

that is come up. We will talk to you later in the evening. Also here

tonight is the former First Minister, Peter Robinson. We spoke

to him just as he came in. The Dup stance on Brexit might eat into his

vote and see Naomi Long take the seat? Well, I would hardly think so.

If he gets all of the votes from people who voted for Brexit, he will

win the seat, easily. I don't think that will be the issue. The issue in

this election is one that relates to the Union. I think unionists have

recognised that Sinn Fein and the SDLP are pushing for a border poll

and a united Ireland. They need a response from the unionist

community. I'm trusting they will get that today. Do you think Arlene

Foster is the right leader for the Dup? Of course she is. She's a good

leader. She's doing well. She has my full support and encouragement. Mr

Robinson, thank you. Peter Robinson there looking very sun tanned and

relaxed. I spoke to him briefly and said, is that what leaving politics

does for you? Is you look relaxed not a care in the world? He said he

didn't get the sun tan in Belfast. Lots of news coming here throughout

the night we expect the first result possibly around 1.00am. Mark. Yes.

Tara thank you very much indeed. Interesting to get that initial

picture down there at the Titanic Exhibition Centre where the four

Belfast counts are taking place through the wee small hours. We are

not really expecting any results here, certainly not this side of

midnight, maybe 1.00am maybe 1.30am. We have Christopher, Danny, and

Clare. I will ask you for your response to that joint broadcaster's

exit poll which is a surprise. I think it's fair to say? For most

people? I think all the different versions everybody used. It's early

days yet and a long night ahead. It's surprising. I think you know,

it's been an interesting campaign in terms of Theresa May, strong and

stable, showing herself to be a mediocre leader at very best. People

will see her going for a stronger mandate for a ridiculous Brexit. We

need to balance this and make it absolutely clear. Why it is a bad

result for Theresa May and much better for Jeremy Corbyn than many

people had expected, he's absolutely nowhere near being able to form an

administration either? Absolutely. It's highly unlikely the numbers

will play out exactly as they did. The 18 here very likely might come

into play in some way. It's not a Labour Government. The interesting

thing about Jeremy Corbyn, for me, one, I'm sad that if he had of put

that campaigning advert into the referendum last June we might not be

here. Clearly, he has proven to be a better campaigner than people maybe

anticipated. If those numbers play out, as they are, it looks like a

messy few weeks. Do you think, if this is right, is this people

rallying to the flag of Jeremy Corbyn or is it people saying -

actually, the more I see of Theresa May, I don't really fancy what's on

offer? There's not one issue that inwiths each way or changes an

election. People weigh it up. The more people saw of Theresa May I

think the more inept she looked. Changing policies, failing to stand

over things. Clearly, not... Calling an election about Brexit and saying

nothing about Brexit and having no strategy for Brexit. I don't think

it's necessarily people rallying to Corbyn. I think he has proven

himself to be voter-friendly and attractive than his own party would

have thought a few moments ago. We are looking at pictures of

candidates and supporters arriving at some of the various count

centres. Will you have seen John O'Dowd in previous wick tours. Sir

Geoffrey Donaldson, pinning his rosette to his lapel. Did you have

one of those on today, Christopher? I did. I can put it op if you want.

It's in my coat outside. It's soggy. Doesn't make a difference at this

point? In terms of what Clare said. I think there is one issue that can

be traced to Theresa May's misfortunes. It's called social

care. How did they make a mistake like that? It defies belief. You are

a Conservative Prime Minister, a key constituent of your coalition that

elects Conservative governments is older voters. The only conclusion

that I can come to was that they thought they were so far -

Arrogance. Is that what it was I think it was arrogance. They thought

they were so far in front they could land it on people. Some polls were

suggesting they were 20 points between Conservatives and Labour?

Lynton Crosby is not the genius people thought he was? Generally,

people talked up as election geniuses come a cropper. Predictions

that Romney was going to win the presidency. I shared it. I came a

cropper. People who have a reputation for being able to swing

elections. It defied belief that the Conservative Party should have

embraced that social care policy. I think that that, they never

recovered from that. They never - they put themselves on the wrong

side of a key element of their coalition that helps them to win

elections. Yes. Was it the mistake of that policy or was it the gee

news whoever called it the dementia tax. The second point. Jeremy

Corbyn's entire political career has been attending deo after demo. He is

a campaign. He is an accomplished campaigner.

He speaks at public rallies in the same way that Theresa May speaks at

the dispatch box in the House of Commons. Demos and campaigning suit

Corbyn. I think Theresa May is more a creature of study and Government.

There has been times during this election she has come across as

uncomfortable in her own Let us not skin. Go into the superficial too

fast. Christopher is quick on his feet. Immensely distressed a while

ago. He is explaining explaining why it's

gone wrong. I called it wrong snoochl you were distressed your

countrymen? Prepared to vote for an IRA supporter. That is a form of

distress. Anyone that looks at Jeremy Corbyn's record, if Jeremy

Corbyn had wanted to pursue a united Ireland through constitutional means

he could have hooked up with SDLP as other parliamentarians - We

rehearsed that during the campaign. He said he was part of the process

bringing Sinn Fein - Do you believe it? It's not a matter - Your own

party shows ambivalence about paramilitaries they might associate

with, whether it's during their reign or not. It's hype critical. I

think Jeremy Corbyn made the wrong call there. I think it does make me

raise an eyebrow about him. I don't think that was the dominant issue

for many people. To get back to the flaws of the svsh campaign. Briefly.

I want to get out and about. It was utterly propostous that the notion

that Conservatives could go into Labour-held seats with sizeable

majorities and expect to overturn those given that Corbyn and his

views and the traditional Labour campaign was always going to appeal

to the traditional Labour voter. That flaw, whoever thought of it, or

dreamed of it, started this election campaign very badly for Theresa May

and so it continued. OK. Alex, a sentence. I will come back to you, I

promise. Remember this battle was an ideological battle. People rally to

that. It was interesting. It was different from some of the elections

we saw, general elections we saw fought most recently. Thank you very

much. We are here for the long-haul we will hear more from you over the

course of the next few hours. I want to go to Omagh Leisure Centre and

hear from our report Julian Fowler, down there for the Fermanagh South

Tyrone vote. It will be very tight. That is the predictions have always

been. Are you picking up anything, any straws in the wind at this early

stage? Well, Tom Elliott proved the pundit wrong two years ago when he

took the seat with a majority of 530. Helped of course by that

unionist pact. The DUP and TUV stood aside this year. If you look at the

results from the Assembly election in March, the combined unionist vote

is around 400 ahead of the Sinn Fein on first preferences. The SDLP have

polled poorly in recent Westminster elections. Michelle Gildernew has

appealed directly to SDLP supporters asking them to lend her their vote

in this election. So, as you say, it's always a tight contest in

Fermanagh south Tyrone. Don't rule out the possibility of the dreaded

word recount. I've lost count of how many times we have had those over

the years. Fermanagh has one of the highest turnout and topping the poll

for poxy votes and postal ballots issued. If it's a two-horse race in

Fermanagh and South Tyrone. A one horse contest in West Tie row. Pat

Doherty has retired. A new runner and rider this year whoo is set to

top the I wondered if you think the Brexit

issue has come into play. Tom Elliott was resolutely pro-Brexit,

Fermanagh and South Tyrone was as Remain constituency. Brexit is a big

issue and Tom Elliott took a long time, he really procrastinated over

which side of the fence he would come down on in the referendum. He

voted to leave. He said it was important to have representation in

Westminster during the forthcoming Brexit negotiations. Michelle

Gildernew, it has been a big issue for her on the doorsteps and she

says it does not matter if she were to win and not take her seat, she

said what was important was providing a strong voice against

Brexit. About will no doubt have an impact on the result. Good to hear

from you. Julian Fowler in Omagh. West Tyrone, no doubt that that will

go to Barry McElduff, one would have thought. Fermanagh and South Tyrone,

difficult to call. Fionnuala, if you had to call it, how would you call

it? I think I would see Sinn Fein taking it. I could be completely

wrong. You have a 50 - 50 chance. You think that is the direction of

travel. Yes. I did notice that Nicholas White said he thought this

Sinn Fein search based on turnout, he did not predict it definitely,

but he was certainly suggesting that was possible. Just looking at some

votes in Belfast East tumbling out of the ballot boxes. That is a very

good view of the Titanic Exhibition Centre. More votes tumbling out onto

the table is there. Alex, do you fancy spending the night of

verifying and counting votes? It is hard work and they are there for the

long haul and so are we. All the people around this table will know

this, it is one of the most boring things to stand and watch but also

one of the most fascinating and it is also the one place where you will

stand getting inaccurate figures and predictions. The number of times I

have been to, Alliance are getting this, DUP are getting their. In your

previous life, you probably have been standing around the table,

telling little stories, spinning little stories. When the counting is

going on, you can tell by our faces, the reality. Tallying has got more

sophisticated. There are number crunchers and nerds in every party

and usually get an accurate prediction on the STV vote. There

are 60 boxes per constituency and the turnouts are all different, you

can tell nothing, it is all straws in the wind. Let us hear from

another reporter, Conor McAuley is at the icon centre. You have four

constituencies counting there. Talk us through what the highs and lows

are likely to be. There are four constituencies here, upper bound,

Lagan Valley, South Down and Newry and Armagh. Jeffrey Donaldson is

defending a majority, he has arrived. The first Lagan Valley

boxes have been opened. In Newry and Armagh, Mickey Brady for Sinn Fein

is almost certain to be elected. In Upper Bann, it will be interesting

to see how Doug Beattie does. David Simpson is the incumbent MP. If the

Unionist vote was split, was there a possibility that John O'Dowd could

come through and make a credible bid for that seat? South Down, in the

bottom left-hand corner of the hall, that is the one where there is going

to be a lot of interest. That has been an SDLP seat for 30 years but

Margaret Ritchie is under significant pressure from Chris

Hazzard from Sinn Fein. Sinn Fein has thrown the kitchen sink at dead

and they are coming into this election on the back of a very

strong Assembly showing where they polled more than 6000 first

preferences more than the SDLP. Margaret Ritchie has traditionally

relied on Unionist votes but those Unionist parties have been told that

Bagram voters have been told to vote for the union. If they do not vote

tactically, then Margaret Ritchie could struggle to get the votes that

she needs and she could be vulnerable here. You have got two

constituencies that are pretty easily predicted, we are not

expecting any big surprises in Newry and are and Lagan Valley, but South

Down and Upper Bann are fascinating. Tell us a bit about the Eikon

centre, it is a new venue for election counting, it looks

impressive, it is part of the Balmoral Show redevelopment, isn't

it? That is right. I am used to being here as an agriculture

correspondent. It is the home of the Balmoral Show and normally this

places bill of stalls but now it is full of counters and candidates.

There are some good facilities. There is a decent coffee dark and

people seem to be pretty pleased with the move. Not bad single.

Bagram it is early days. We will talk to you later. Conor Macauley

who is showing his versatility, he is our agriculture correspondent,

but he is also our man on the ground there. Fionnuala, South Down and

Upper Bann are interesting. They are very interesting. Margaret Ritchie,

I would think, is pretty vulnerable. In fact, I was talking earlier to

someone who is normally a good reader of those things and he said

she was in big trouble. Upper Bann, I would bow to Danny Kennedy, I was

trying to seek out his view, looking to see if his eyebrows went up when

you sell it Doug Beattie. Upper Bann, do you think that Doug Beattie

can shade it over David Simpson? I think he could shade it. I have not

been particularly close to the campaign this time, but Doug Beattie

has put in a lot of hard work. He comes across very well, both through

the media and on the doors. You push forward as a strong candidate and

would you say he is up against a weak opponent and David Simpson? I

am not making any comment about other party 's candidates, I simply

said that Doug Beattie would make a first-class member of Parliament for

Upper Bann and I would hope that is the outcome tonight. It is difficult

to beat an incumbent. That is the trend of Westminster elections. I

think, we have to caution that. I think Doug Beattie has put in

enormously hard work and has been very well regarded on the doors.

What do you reckon, Christopher Stalford, David Simson, maybe one of

your less high-profile members of Parliament, I think that is

reasonable enough to say, do you think he will have been caught out

or slightly different -- but the disadvantage by that alleged

printing mistake over his election literature that said he had visited

soldiers in Afghanistan? He visited soldiers in Iraq. I do not think he

was Mourne more courtyard than the Ulster Unionist candidate was caught

out any more than. You need to proof read. You can provide something ten

times and eventually a mistake will still get through. In terms of

profile, perhaps it is right to say that in the regional news, David

does not have a big profile, but certainly in Upper Bann, he has an

excellent profile as a first class constituency member of Parliament.

One of the things that I have learned and I am sure Clare Ambani

and others have learned, that the important thing is to work on the

ground for your constituents and David has a strong reputation in

that regard. In the last Assembly election, the DUP did very well

there in Upper Bann and if the result is anywhere like the same as

it was in the Assembly election, I would be confident that David would

retain his seat and I hope that is the case. How do you read it, do you

think it will be as tight as some commentators have predicted? After

the exit poll, I am reluctant to say anything. I think David Simpson will

hold the seat, while Doug Beattie is an excellent candidate, for a

traditional wing of the party, particularly in summer like Upper

Bann, his views on abortion and same-sex marriage, I think they may

not play particularly well. People who might be disposed to the UUP, I

think they will in enough numbers shift. It is a battle between

liberal and traditional unionism. You can have that battle in

summerlike South Antrim, where there is no chance of Unionist losing a

seat but in summer like Upper Bann, you rally to the union is most

likely to win and particularly after the March election, Unionist will be

all about ensuring that the gap grows between the DUP and Sinn Fein.

I want to ask Claire about that, do you think in South Down that

Margaret Ritchie can hold on. If you look at the figures, there was 6500

in it in March. Certainly she was up against it. Margaret is a grafter.

In a multi-seat constituency, she has got a good work record and

support across the constituency. She campaigned on the fact that it could

be tied, we will need every vote and people dismissed... Do you think she

was foolish, in 2015, she said that she won the seat without any votes

being lent to us? Was that hasty? The thought has always been that she

is dependent on Unionist transfers. I had not heard that. I think that

attracting votes from all different backgrounds is a good thing and it

is republicanism in one respect, I do not think people should be

consistent -- dismissive of candidates attracting votes across

communities. No one has the DAT to know exactly what the background is

of every single person who cast a vote. I think it is an asset that

you can get votes across the community and I think many people

will rally because of her work record and because of the impact

that things like Brexit, but if we are heading into any sort of a hung

Parliament situation, then what Margaret and the SDLP campaigned on

on the basis of vote counting will have been borne out, whether or not

they are there to hold it. I will come back to you all in a moment. It

seems an appropriate moment to cross over to our results have an hear

from Mark Devenport who is joint by our number cruncher in chief,

Nicholas White, and both of them have had more thoughts on what that

Joint Broadcasters Exit Poll is suggesting, the overall picture

might be. Thank you. Whilst I was given you my initial reaction,

Nicholas was mulling over it. Let us look at the exit poll. We can bring

it up behind us. Rather than repeating the numbers, we will look

at the implications. James Brokenshire, the Northern Ireland

Secretary has been quoted as saying it is far too early to draw

conclusions, we have to put in all the usual caveats. He would say

that. He could find himself quite busy, potentially, in terms of

community -- like communicating with our local parties. It is a very easy

bit of mathematics, theoretically you need 326 seats for an overall

majority, there will be at least four Sinn Fein which will bring the

number down. That leaves a gap of nine or ten to fill and we are

looking at nine or ten unionists in there. Inevitably, that would have a

knock-on effect, because a few things and to get going immediately,

talks on restoring devolution and the Brexit negotiations and yet some

of these politicians will find themselves double booked. They

certainly are and we have seen one crazy bit of speculation that

perhaps the Conservatives would concede the post to the DUP for

Secretary of State. That seems unlikely. Do you think it is much

more likely if we did get into that scenario that we would be talking

about some sort of confidence and supply arrangement, which is not a

formal Coalition, but were you ask for certain policy initiatives that

you want to see put in place? The DUP have some very specific

requests, keeping the triple lock on pensions, the winter fuel allowance,

abolishing the 84 Northern Ireland businesses, these are all things

that a minority Conservative government can concede freely and

expect support for. In the DUP manifesto they talked about any

return to devolution, having to factor it through whether it

strengthen the union or not, do you think this might affect them and

maybe push them more towards Westminster and more towards direct

role? Their aim will be to restore

storement in some way. It's not clear they will be emboldened to

make further compromises than the negotiations at that rate. What

really matters is an agreement between he the Dup and Sinn Fein if

this election result strengthens both of them that may not bode well

for reaching an agreement. The at rry ma particular is altered by Sinn

Fein. The 650 MPs overall, you have to get to 326, but if there are some

MPs absent that brings down the figure. Of course, we may see a

welter of speculation across the water as to whether Sinn Fein will

change their position in terms of abstentionism and ride to Jeremy

Corbyn's aid. Would you bet on it? I would not. The people who make the

speculations tend to be people who have never met anybody from Sinn

Fein in their lives. The name of the party gives you the answer to the

question. The party was founded on that principle. That is why it was

set up in 1908 I can't see how they would change their policy now. A

final point about the SNP, a tumble for them. 22 seats down. Yes. Do you

think that is really likely? It looks very bizarre. Also, reading

between the lines, it looks like the 22 seats may have mainly gone to the

Conservatives. That offsets the Conservative losses elsewhere to

Labour and to the Liberal Democrats. We see Labour up 34ened, the Liberal

Democrats up six. That's up 40 seats overall. Conservatives down 17.

That's 22 SNP and one Ukip, who have disappeared completely. So it looks

to me like we're really speculating on maybe a relatively small sample

of Scottish voters producing a result that wasn't forecast in any

of the opinion polls. Then again, if we had no surprises, we wouldn't be

sitting here. OK. It will be a night of surprises, no doubt. Mark, I

think you will hear from the Ulster unionists. Back to you. Thank you

very much. Robin Swann join us from Ballymena. Good evening to you? Good

evening, Mark. Early days, I talk about the local picture in a moment

or two. If you don't mind I want to ask your reaction to the joint

broadcasters exit poll which is suggesting things might not have

gone the way Theresa May was hoping. Are you surprised by what you've

heard, I presume you have heard? Well, I have heard, Mark. I suppose,

taking into consideration of the exit polls and accuracies at this

minute in time, it would be a blow to Theresa May considering where she

started six weeks ago. There will be a lot of internal questions being

asked in parties across GB tonight. I think the most interesting one is

where the Conservative Party and the SNP are coming up, especially in

Scotland, where those seat changes are actually happening. Yeah. Have

you heard anything at all - we were discussing it earlier, Mark

Devenport made that very point. Where have those 22 seats that this

poll suggests the SNP may have lost, where have they gone to? Have they

gone to Labour or the Conservatives? If they have gone to the

Conservatives, what does that mean for other seats in England? It's a

complicated position. Are you picking up anything at all from

Scotland from anybody you have been chatting to? . I will be honest, I

have been in North Antrim. This is the first discussion I've had on the

national picture. If the SNP are losing seats to the Conservative

Party, that would seem to be the indication. That seems the

Conservative Party are suffering major losses across England. It's a

surprise considering where they started off four, five, six weeks

ago. That is the only conclusion you can reach at this stage. It's only

an exit poll. We haven't a single vote counted in anger at this stage.

Worth making the point while this comes with a health warning, it was

very accurate two years ago. What about the picture - I'm getting

cross feed. I can't pick you up at all. Can you hear me more if I ask

you about the local situation? I'm wondering... Picking you up. What

are you hearing about some of your big names like Tom Elliott and Danny

Kinahan. Are you positive they can hold on. Are you positive that Doug

Beattie can can take that seat in Upper Bann? We don't have the exit

polls to work that out from. One of the things I did today was actually

take time to get out around each of our candidates running. There was a

good vibe out round any of the candidates. They fought good,

positive campaigns. We are hopeful tonight for good positive results.

Less hope that turns into Ulster Unionist seats as well. What we are

seeing if the national polls are going to be so tight, 18 Northern

Ireland seats are going to make a difference and this is where the

continual point I have been making through our local campaign is those

absentee MPs for Northern Ireland are weakening our hand seriously.

You would absolutely hate a situation, wouldn't you, as the new

leader of the Ulster Unionist Party to have unionist seats counting for

so much in a very tight situation perhaps your opponents in the Dup

being kingmakers at Westminster. Mark, I'm sorry. I'm getting

directors in my ear. I can't pick you up at all. Sorry. We will come

back to you. Sorry about that. There is some confusion on the old

talkback system. Whatever is happening at your end. If you can't

hear me, you can't answer my question, I suppose. I will come to

the pan Nel a moment or two. Tara is at Titanic Exhibition Centre.

Hopefully, she can hear me saying hello? Mark, I can hear you saying

hello. I can hear you loud and clear. That's good news. The boxes

are opening, the counting has started. Lots of pretty nervous

faces around here in Titanic Exhibition Centre where the four

Belfast constituencies will be decided. Let us talk to a couple of

the candidates. Someone who has some views on all of this. Martin, I will

start with you, SDLP candidate for Network Rail bell hast fast. How do

you think think it's gone? Exit polls have been showing what we have

been rahmatullahi alai we are in the area of a hung Parliament. Every

vote and seat here counts than we thought it would previously. We are

very confident we will return three MPs. Three MPs that will vote

against the Conservatives and hopefully vote for a strong

Labour-led Government. You are the SDLP press officers as well as the

candidate in North Belfast. You are looking at the bigger picture. How

you think you faired in North Belfast? Tighter than we predicted a

few weeks ago. One of the seats that determines the makeup of a future

Parliament. North Belfast is obviously a constituency that voted

remain, a pro-Brexit MP. We will see how that worked in the final shake

down. It's difficult to get a firm say of how things are going. We are

confident we will have done well. You got 400 votes in 2010, you are

hoping to improve on that. How many do you think you managed to gather

up. It's a difficult fight for you given it's Nigel Dodds? Two big

beasts of politics. We had a number of debates. I faired fairly well in

the debates that happened. It's very difficult to #3reat this stage.

Obviously, I got 403 votes last time. A number etched on my memory.

Hopefully we can improve on that a little bit. We are looking at

substantially more than that this time. You denied you were a paper

candidate. Do you not think it really did send out a message from

the SDLP it wasn't somebody better known? I don't think. The SDLP don't

do paper candidates I don't do paper campaigns. Hopefully more votes this

time. Nicola had heretic circumstances she had given birth to

a baby girl to add to her previous little girl. Very particular

circumstances there. I'm happy to have stood forward for the SDLP in

that constituency. A constituency where it looked like the choice was

between a Brexiteer or someone who wouldn't take their seat. Very happy

and browed proud to say that I'll stand against the Conservatives and

Theresa May in the final shake down. We should say hello to Nicola. Is

she here tonight or at home watching? . She's at home looking

after her daughter. I couldn't drag her out. Nicola gave birth on the

Sunday and on the Monday she had phoned me to say this is where the

canvassing needs to be. This is where the posters need to be. She

has given a Trojan effort in North Belfast even though she was a

candidate. I can give her one night off with the kids. Some people said

it's a four-horse race. You are not one of the four. Do you feel

confidence about it, is there any cans? I think the buzz around South

Belfast has been fantastic today. Out around the polling stations

up-and-down the Lisburn Road and Omagh Road. People saying they have

cast their vote for you. Election day is very exciting anyway. We are

hearing we are getting a lot of votes. As Martin said, the boxes

haven't been tallied yet. It's hard to get a sense of where they are

going. Yes, South Belfast I think will be one of the tightest fought

seats here in Northern Ireland. So it would be foolish to say that, you

know, to put my predictions right up there. I certainly think that we

brought new voters in and kept our voters excited. We have to wait and

see how it goes. It's going to be a tight one. What about the issue of

pacts then? Obviously, Paula Bradshaw we asked her about that

request. How do you feel about that? Electioneering. Everybody wants as

many votes as they can get. We have to ask everybody to vote Green

instead. We get votes from across the board. It's not that we target

one party for votes. We get floating voters as well. Swing voters. I

think from all the parties that will be standing we will be able to take

votes from some of those parties, all of them. I think it's just

electioneering and good luck to them. I think you will usually find

if you have a Green voter they will stay with the Greens. What about the

national picture. What do you make of the exit poll, are you surprised?

Very surprised. I wasn't expecting it to be such a dramatic exit poll.

I'm nervous as well. We have seen exit polls coming through before

that have made their predictions and the actual results have turned out

very different. I'm thinking about the last general election in

particular. So I will wait to see. But, yep, very excited to see what's

going to happen. A hung Parliament and the possibility of another

election being called if a Government is not formed. It doesn't

fill me with glee. No more elections no. More elections. More elections.

It's been dramatic, certainly. Alan, give us as flavour of the seats. If

we look at South, we have been talking to Clare. How is it going to

go? It's the cliche, too close to call? Basically, Alistair McDonnell

would have less than a quarter of the votes. Four candidates who stand

a chance and will get at least 15, 18% of the vote. A few hundred votes

will make a big difference. Clare might not be in the running. Her

votes could have put somebody else in and could have changed the whole

thing around. Do you think they should have had a pact South Belfast

between Green and Alliance. I don't like pacts. It's good for parties,

particularly smaller one, to put themselves out there. Don't let the

voters learn bad habits of voting for somebody else and then say, vote

for me. It's important small parties keep going, no matter what you vote

for me. People will be tactical. South Belfast is one of many

constituencies where there will be tactical voting, South Down,

Fermanagh South Tyrone. Will there be less tactical voting in South

Belfast because it's less of of a two horse race. It could go either

way. People might not necessarily go for Alasdair McDonnell who went for

him before? We might find out, give a couple of hours. We might see the

Ulster Unionists have a low poll and a lot of those votes have been lent

to the DUP that Emma gets over. Make sure Sinn Fein don't get too close.

This is the opportunity after the last Assembly election to put a big

gap in place. The Dup were pushing for votes. Michael Henderson did

surprisingly well in the Assembly elections. People weren't predicting

that. A strong personal vote in South Belfast. 50 votes swung the

last two seats in South Belfast at the Assembly. We Werritty a long

time waiting for Clare to get in. It's quite, very tight when it comes

to STV. First-past-the-post it will be blunter. Different story

altogether, isn't it? What about East then, the Robinson and Long. Do

you think she can get more this time? I would stick my neck out and

say I doubt Naomi Long will get the seat. It's safe for Gavin. I haven't

seen any tallies thchl is based on the speculation. I would imagine

that actually, some of the Alliance voters would not want Naomi to go to

Westminster as leader. That would perhaps hurt turnout. Gavin, his

speech was well remembered from two years ago. Actually, people have

forgotten about that. He has been a reasonable straight-forward MP. No

scandal. No particular things that people talk about. I think he will

do quite well. It will be hard work. It will be a remarkable victory if

Naomi was to take that seat. What about the UDA factor in all of this

and the LCC statement in Can East Belfast in particular. Will that

have swayed anybody's decision either way? Will there be Alliance

voters who won't vote who will say, don't tell me what to

She will be out her account in Maidenhead. A great deal of shock

and surprise at these figures. There is a big health warning over those

figures, they are just projections. George Osborne said that if this

poll turns out to be correct, then it is catastrophic for Theresa May

and he basically said he did not think she could possibly survive as

leader. Privately, Labour are saying that this is good news for them,

obviously to put on 30 seats but it takes us into unchartered territory

and it will be seen as the gamble that did not pay off for Theresa May

of these figures are true. Did not take George Osborne long, did it? It

didn't take him long at all, long runs the Fox clearly and he has been

very critical of the way the Conservatives ran this campaign,

very critical of the way Theresa May has handled things since he stopped

being an MP and clearly he thinks that if

these figures are true and obviously there is a health warning attached,

he does not think Theresa May can survive as Prime Minister. What

about Jeremy Corbyn, he is even further away from being able to form

an administration but up 34 seats according to this exit poll, a

remarkable result if it turns out to be anything like that, given what

the polls were saying four are five weeks ago. Absolutely right.

Remember, go back to April and Theresa May was 24 points ahead and

she looked at that and thought, let's go for this election and

comeback with a thumping majority. If these figures are true, it is

nowhere near the prediction work before. A lot of people are critical

of Jeremy Corbyn but if you look at him, even if you put your political

bias to one side, you would say he has been a redoubtable figure, he

has enjoyed the campaign and looked as though he has enjoyed himself and

he stood up to a lot of the attacks and if he has put on 30 seats, then

people will see it as a triumph from a Labour point of view. You are over

and back to Westminster on a regular basis, what is your reading, at this

very early stage of the implications of those figures for the Northern

Ireland parties, particularly the DUP if it comes back with eight or

nine seats and Theresa May is 12 seats short of a majority? The first

thing I would say is we have to be very cautious. Very, very cautious.

This is an exit poll, albeit many thousands of people were surveyed.

Exit polls have been wrong before and we will have to wait and see how

the night develops, but clearly if these figures are correct and if we

are close to that and the DUP comeback with eight or nine MPs,

then clearly they are going to be central figures. We know that there

are close associations between the DUP and the Conservative Party, many

DUP MPs have been in there and been at receptions, there are close bonds

on a personal level, clearly if those figures are correct, then the

Conservatives would be reaching out to parties like the DUP. It is an

exit poll and we do have to be very careful at this stage. Stephen,

thank you very much indeed. A nice tight, by the way. Stephen Walker

joining us from outside Number 10. Thank you for joining us on our

special results programme here on BBC One Northern Ireland. One hour

ago we gave you the results of the Joint Broadcasters Exit Poll, it was

a great surprise to everyone around the table here and I suspect to

everyone at home as well. There are the numbers, just to confirm, the

Conservatives, according to this exit poll, which comes with a health

warning sitting on 314, that would be down 17 on David Cameron's result

in 2015. Labour there with 266, up 34, and very good result for Jeremy

Corbyn given that the poll said just a few weeks ago that there were 20

percentage points between the Tories and Labour. A bad night for Nicola

Sturgeon and the SNP if these turn out to be correct, down from 56 to

34. The Liberal Democrats, not bad, up six but a far cry from where they

were when Nick Clegg was in charge. You can see it has just gone 11

o'clock book is the clocks on our set our live and telling you the

actual time, you might have noticed that if you have an eagle eye. You

can see the Queen Elizabeth Tower in Westminster, home to Big Ben,

telling us the time, exactly two minutes past 11 and I want to

welcome two new members to my panel here.

Welcome to both of you. You have been doing your numbers over the

last hour or thereabouts, what do you make of this, you're not kicking

yourself are you, that it is so tight and a you win seats tonight,

your representatives are not going to be there, making mayhem in the

mother of all Parliaments? We will have active MPs whether they take

their seats or not. I think they will have influence on the issues

that matter. I was surprised with the discourse around there's been a

huge surprise around Jeremy Corbyn. I think if you followed the campaign

and the politics of the campaign, particularly in the closing stages,

it does not necessarily come is that big of a surprise. I do not think it

Jeremy Corbyn has closed the gap because he enjoyed the campaign, I

think you close the gap because his politics and message has resonated

with a lot of people. He has won the first seat, we have had the first

declaration, Labour hold Newcastle Central. He is off the mark first.

There will be no huge surprise that he has managed to hold onto that

seat. 649 more to go. At least we're off the mark. That is good news and

Jeremy Corbyn has taken the first scalp of the night. It is not those

of the seats that we are particularly interested in, it is

the swing seats and the trends across the whole of the country that

make it so fascinating. Stephen, you are known as the number cruncher of

note, what do you make of those numbers? I am sure there is some

controversy in the north-east of England. Newcastle has declared

before Sunderland. I saw whole thing about Newcastle, they were

rehearsing it, no expense spared for how they were going to be first

game. There will be a stewards enquiry. The one thing I would say

about the exit poll, last time around, people were sceptical and

more or less proved to be right bar a few seats here were the

Conservatives were slightly under. The exit poll will have a margin of

error. The figures are suggesting that tight knife edge where the

Conservatives presumably with the DUP on the supply and confidence

bases just about having a majority against virtually everyone else. Of

course, other friends might come into play, but I do respect their

long standing position. In practice the exit poll will swing one way or

another and may be that the Conservative Party may just squeak a

small majority are equally the Conservatives plus there are DUP

friends fall short of a majority, in which case we into complete chaos, I

would expect, unless there can be a rainbow Coalition put together on

the other side of the fence. We are equally seeing, we are seeing a

greater fragmentation. This time around we have seen a massive

consolidation between two large parties and even the SNP now gaining

a voice in the House of Commons. That will influence dynamics. All of

those scenarios are very difficult in terms of effective government.

You're talking about the situation... It was hard enough...

It was certainly difficult as far as the Tories were concerned pitting a

government together with the Lib Dems, we saw what a challenge that

was, it has not been particularly easy for the Tories and that is why

Theresa May has gone further snap election and she has made the

situation from her perspective worse rather than better. Stable

government is arguably more important than ever. From my own

point of view, I am very much opposed to what she wanted to do

around Brexit and that may now be in question. You would say that.

Absolutely. Jeremy Corbyn himself has taken the position where he is

determined to do Brexit. Do you think he will be kicking himself

because he did not foresee this situation developing and he has gone

along with their for as his natural instinct was to oppose Brexit? We

never know. Certainly within the Labour Party, there was opposition.

I take your point, Christopher, it was not absolutely clear. The Labour

position is about trying to remain part of the single market and a

customs union. There might be something in that, were a more

realistic approach to negotiations may take place with the UK getting a

softer Brexit than originally intended. Whatever way this played

out, there was going to be a very hard reckoning because when

negotiations are properly, what the UK once on paper was never something

that could be delivered. If the result in reality, in 24 hours turns

out to be anything like this, Theresa May is under enormous

pressure, knives are going to be out before breakfast time. The

Conservative Party has this wonderful instinct for

self-preservation and they can be ruthless when their leaders fail to

deliver. Danny. The Alliance Party can be like that too. Careful,

Danny, very, careful! If Mark Devenport or Nicholas White can

explain the discrepancies that there is, there are 646 seats allocated in

the exit poll, 650 seats, presumably we are looking at two Plaid Cymru,

one Green Party and a Speaker, is that too simplistic to assess,

because as it is, the combined Labour, SNP and Lib Dem makes it a

dead heat with the Conservatives. I have got the detailed figures, Plaid

Cymru have three on the page that I have in front of me, the Green Party

have won, Ukip do not have any, others are 18, that would be the

Northern Ireland seats,... If that helps you exactly. They must be

counting the Speaker as a Conservative lobby which is not

correct. We know there is a difference. Because it is an exit

poll, you do not want to get down to the final say, there was a majority

of 12 last time around which was a working majority of 17 and you have

got to take the Speaker into it and abstention is Sinn Fein MPs and we

do not know the result for sure. There is a little margin of error

within it, it is whatever about that. They accept the broad point

that it is pretty dramatic stuff. It is very interesting. Claire. I was

doing the same mathematics. I think it is three that you have to get to

to get a majority. If you look at 314 and potentially the DUP coming

out with eight or nine, it gets them very close, if you take out the

Speaker and the abstention is. In a house of 650, it is 326. 649. If

these are true, that vote early, vote often could apply to this year.

It could be difficult for anyone to govern with those numbers. For the

Conservatives to not be able to afford one last voter, to give the

DUP whatever they want and for any rainbow Coalition to meet all the

needs would be very difficult. I think there is right, people in

Northern Ireland will not want to hear this, but I suspect we will

have another general election within the next 12 months. After the

Assembly election. Do not put away your posters, candidates! It is hard

to see a circumstance where that does not happen. It is early days.

It brings you back to the glaring political impact here, are fact is

that Theresa May called this election to try and strengthen her

mandate. We were led to believe she was a great strategist and a great

political leader, she was strong and stable and this is where she has

found herself. Wanted the hugely ironic if Theresa May is able to

hang on by the shortest of a thread simply because of Sinn Fein

abstention is an? I do not think that will be the case. We all know

it is early doors. I do not think it will factor at all. If it did come

down to it, there is not about to be any conversion on the part of your

party? It will not happen. We need to consider that part of the reason,

one of the basic reason is Sinn Fein MPs are elected is because they

abstain. We are mandated to not take our seats.

You abstain from the Police Board and came back to them. It's if, if

you can present - prevent damage to the NHS or prevent the hardness of a

Brexit would it be something you could consider when you could make a

meaningful difference for people's lives.

You could improve people's quality of lives by doing it. Those

principles like abstaining from those two parliament's I mentioned,

you found your way around them eventually As the Lib Dems what

impact they had as minority parties in the last Government or ask even

in the last Dale the Greens had. Somebody from Sinn Fein teeting

earlier... Because they abstain. Was that. Did you tweet that? Somebody

from Sinn Fein tweeted, Sinn Fein MPs are elected because they

abstain. Was that you? It wassen today. That was possibly yesterday.

That goes back to what I said yesterday. Those who vote for Sinn

Fein know what they are getting. Given that Sinn Fein's position has

changed in other parliaments down the years. Slightly different when

you are an Irish Republican. Slightly different. I don't see a

change. You abstain because it's set up by an Act of the UK Parliament. I

don't want a family feud. I do think there's an important point. I wasn't

party to this element of the talks that was taking place before this

election with us called. My understanding is that there was, we

were close to an agreed position on issues relating to the UK's exit

from the European Union. There was from all parties close to an agreed

position. Agreed negotiating framework. There was a fair degree

of difference between the parties. There was certainly a narrowing. A

narrowing of the ground. Yeah. That means, if... We don't know what the

composition of the next Government is going to be. We have, most of us

at this table, had a mandate to form a Government here in Belfast to get

on with the issues particularly relating to the circumstances

surrounding the UK's exit from the European Union. I think people

expect, particularly in this time of uncertainty, expect that we're going

to do that. Sammy Wilson in East Belfast in a second - East Antrim.

Before I do that. I want to show you pictures of another seat that is

being declared, the Labour candidate in Sunderland. Didn't get in there

first, as far as... Yeah, 11.10pm. Central was 11.101. Houghton and

Sunderland South nine minutes later at 11.10pm. Safe Labour seat. Jeremy

Corbyn, no surprises. A rush of - A sign of the times. Sunderland were

relegated from the Premiership and Newcastle went up. You are reading a

lot into it. Jeremy Corbyn has two at this stage. We are only getting

started, aren't we? We have the engine ticking over. Let's hear from

Sammy Wilson who is hoping to hold on to his seat for the Dup in East

Antrim at the Valley Leisure Centre. Mr Wilson, evening to you. Good to

see you? Evening, Mark. How are you? Are you feeling confident? Well,

Mark, we've had five weeks of going round the doors in East Antrim. I've

been round polling stations all day today and people have been

volunteering as they are going in and out to tell me how they have

been voting. I will be very confident we will hold on to the

seat and increase the vote. Can I ask you what you make of the

national picture if the exit poll turns out to be anything like

suggesting at this stage. Major miscalculations on the part of

Theresa May to call that snap election. When that first came

through, were you surprised First of all, I'm always very sceptical of

polls because it's been wrong so many times. Indeed exit polls have

been wrong as well. They were wrong at the last election they didn't

predict that David Cameron was going to get the majority that he got and,

therefore, I think it has to be taken with a dose of salt and a big

dose of salt at that. He this were pretty accurate. They made a

suggestion that was very different to what a lot of the earlier polls

during the campaign had been suggesting. Whatever about it

anyway, it is what it is. If it turns out to be right, do you accept

it makes Westminster a fascinating place to be for however long the

next Parliament might survive? Yes, it certainly will. Of course, one

has to remember that whilst the exit poll is showing that the

Conservatives may not have an overall majority, it also shows

that, on the opposition side, there will be huge from aing meantation

with the Labour Party, the Scottish nationalist, the we will

nationalists, Greens and parties from Northern Ireland. So it doesn't

necessarily follow that the Government will be facing a combined

opposition which was all singing from the same hymn sheet. That, I

suppose, is one comfort to the Prime Minister. Though I think she

probably must be kicking herself now when she had a comfortable majority,

she was winning all of the crucial votes in the House of Commons. She

took a gamble because she was so far ahead of the Labour Party and it

would appear anyhow that that might -- that gamble may not be working

out as she'd anticipated. To come back to the Valley Leisure Centre.

You are pretty confident that you will be returned come foribly in

East Antrim. I'm wondering what you are hearing about South Antrim where

your party colleague Paul Girvan is hoping to take the seat of the

Ulster Unionist Party's Danny Kinahan. Have you been speaking to

Mr Girvan this evening? I haven't been speaking to Paul. I was

speaking to some of his polling agents. They are certainly showing

that there is a very strong performance by Paul. But, there are

so few boxes being opened yet Mark. It can be easily sqewed. In my own

constituency, if you look it on the basis of the boxes which have been

opened I would be getting a vote which is probably about 50% more

than we would normally expect. But that's because the boxes which have

been opened are the ones which are closest to the Valley Leisure Centre

and in an area which would be very good for me. You'd love that, Sammy,

wouldn't you? You can't read too. Into this at the moment. Of course I

would love it. No politician would turn that down! There's many things

you would love, Mark, but you never get them. Them. Maybe we will talk

to you later. Thank you very much in the meantime. Enjoy your evening.

Thanks. I hope you have lots of coffee. We will speak to you later,

Sammy. Thank you very much. We can go to Ciaran. Two constituencies

being counted, Foyle and East Londonderry. A lot of busy people

behind you. How is it shaping up so far? Mark, the Foyle Arena is a hive

of activity. The first boxes came through the door after 10.00pm the

count got underway 10.10pm. It's continuing a pace now at the moment.

No problems so far We expect the first results in the early hours of

this morning. Two constituencies, as you've said, East Londonderry and

Foyle. Over in East Londonderry Gregory Campbell, the veteran Dup MP

is the incumbent. He should romp home. Had' got an 8,000 majority.

The battle going on here tonight will be in the Foyle constituency.

As we know, the former SDLP leader June human took this seat in 1983

and built it into Fortress Foyle and his longstanding aid Mark Durkan

took over that seat in 2005 and had healthy majorities in the last two

Westminster elections. In the recent Assembly elections it was really a

stunning result for Sinn Fein who, for the first time ever, made

history in out polling the SDLP by something like 2,000 odd votes. It

means it's all to play for here in Foyle. I think the word from Sinn

Fein is that they have fought a very good campaign. They've got their

vote out and they're confident they will do pretty well. Whether they

will take the seat or not remains to be seen.

You can't compare both elections, I suppose, our pundits will tell us

that all the time. They are two different types of

electionings, Assembly and Westminster elections. A couple of

factors at play. Mark Durkan has a huge personal vote and will there be

tactical unionist voting as well? It's all to play for in Foyle and

East Londonderry is pretty clear-cut, Gregory Campbell. OK. We

are interested in both of those. East Londonderry straight-forward.

Foyle, fascinating could come down to the wire. Thank you very much

indeed. We will talk to you again before too long. Two counts there,

North Antrim and Mid Ulster. Sarah, no huge surprises expected in either

of those, it's fair to say? No, Mark. We are certainly not expecting

political earthquakes in Ballymena tonight. North Antrim, first of all,

long considered Dup heartland. The former Dup leader, Ian Paisley, held

that seat in 1972, his son has held it since 2010. He is now seeking his

third term. In 2015 he had a majority of 11,000. Very difficult

to see who could unseat him. I know you were speaking to the new UUP

leader, Robin Swann it will be interesting to see how his party

gets on, the TUV standing here. Not the leader Jim Allister,es who has

stood in the past. Either of those parties unlikely to make a dent in

that Dup stronghold vote. To Mid Ulster another seemingly safe seat,

this time for Sinn Fein and Molloy. Sinn Fein will be looking to cement

their grip on a seat they have had for 20 years. The late Martin

McGuinness had a seat in Mid Ulster and Michelle O'Neill, this is her

home constituency. Back in 2015, he had a majority of 13,000. Looking

like a safe seat. We are not expecting anything in North ant rim

or Mid Ulster other than the status quo at this stage. Thank you very

much for joining us. Let us come back to my panel. Foyle, for a

moment or two. It's a battle royal for the nationalist vote. I will

take that one. Will you? Whatever. You are no crack What is your

tonight. Reading of that situation? Ciaran telling us your colleagues on

the ground saying you have done your best. You've put your best foot

forward, but we will see what happens. Do you think realistically,

even though there were more Sinn Fein votes than SDLP votes in the

most recent Assembly election, this is a different scenario and Mark

Durkan - it's hard to unseat the incumbent? I accept it's a different

election. If elections were fought and won by social media, Alicia

would have had it in the bag this afternoon. She he has tuned into a

new voters. She's a former Mayor, a young mother and accomplished

figure. She fought a brilliant and energised campaign. It's, I will

give you that awful answer that you don't want to have and say it's too

early to call. I certainly think... I mean, it would be one of the seats

that would be in the mix. One that is worth watching. What is your view

of it, Clare. Do you think you can hold on? Yes, I could. I think, as

you say, Mark has a strong personal vote. He is somebody who speaks for

people a lot wider than Foyle particularly on be issues around

foreign policy and be issues around tax credits and pensions and things

like that. I was there myself on Monday. There was postivity for him

from across the board. I would be very confident that we'll hold. Let

us look at a few pictures from South Belfast here. Let us let them play

and see what you make of that. That is the Dup candidate. Looks like...

Christopher. You are here. You are can clearly not there as well. Who

was the guy in the jumper giving her the thumbs up, a party worker? A

party worker in Belfast East. He doesn't know! You won't read too

much in that? No. He's a Pengelly man, is that right? Behave yourself.

I've been involved in elections since 1998. I thought you were go to

say the reaffirmation. Maybe we could do with one. I genuinely can

say toss a coin. I do not know what the result will be. I know from my

constituency office is app Sandy Row, people were at the polling

station, we were driving people out in Sandy Row. . We got one of the

boxes in Sandy Row up to 70%. 70% turnout in one of the boxes in Sandy

Row. 67% in one of the boxes is an unheard of level of turnout. We did

put a real ground operation in place today and we did our best. Pretty

sure that they actually voted for the Dup, you weren't driving them to

vote for the Ulster Unionist? You have to respect the privacy of the

ballot, of course. I think we did put a real effort into the

constituency in this election. I mean, conceivably, there's

potentially four parties who could conceivably win South Belfast and

there wasn't a cigarette paper between any of us really in terms of

the Assembly election Who do you hope wins? I hope Emma

Little Pengelly wins. It must be a difficult relationship, you fought

alongside her for a Assembly seat. She lost and was disappointed and

now she is running for Westminster. I have put every effort into getting

her elected. When I said when she did not get elected to Strowman, she

is an extremely talented and capable person and I think she will make a

good MP and I will have been out, my friends and supporters have been out

helping in the election campaign because I think, as Nile said. Macro

is it because you wanted her out of your hair in Westminster? The that

infects Broadcasting House... I am smiling. Do not be too Po faced. To

be called Po faced by Northern Ireland's answer to Jeremy Paxman...

He will be out to get me for the rest of the evening. We had a good

campaign in south Belfast. I ran the campaign in 2015 and I think we are

in a better place than we were then in terms of picking up the seat.

Alasdair McDonnell, he could hang on. He the great survivor in south

Belfast. Alasdair McDonnell has been involved in electoral politics in

south Belfast since before I was born. He has very deep roots in the

community and constituency. He is a heck of a ward operator and a heck

of a constituency operator and I would not be at all surprised if he

pulled it out of the fire again. I genuinely do not know what way the

constituency will go, but as I say, I think we're in a better place to

win it that we were in 2015. It is interesting to get your perspective.

Clare, in all honesty, do you think that Alistair MacDonald can hang in

there? You could toss a coin and theoretically to other parties could

have a shot at it as well. When he won two years ago, it was a vote of

24.5%, the lowest ever sharer for an MP return to Westminster. It was

effectively a five way marginal them. I am looking at Twitter and

hearing entirely different pictures. I think turnout is up in some of the

boxes. Definitely, Alasdair McDonnell, you talk about the last

great lion in Europe, he is a formidable campaigner and it is

because campaigns are not won on social media, he gets things done

and he has worked and lived in the constituency. He will have won it

because of tactical voting. It he will have won because Unionist... I

do not know. I vote in every election and no one checks my

credentials. You can see trends. The point is, there may well it the

moderate Unionists in south Belfast who would rather see a pro-Europe

candidate returned that a pro-Brexit candidate. That is the theory.

Alasdair McDonnell got 9500 and 2015 and we got in and around 8500 in

their previous elections, there is not that big of a gap and a lot of

those will have come from Alliance Party and Green Party voters. He

builds up a remarkable Coalition of voters. One of the things that I

think is different in south Belfast, in 2015, I think it was clearly

established that in order to prevent the DUP from winning, you had to

vote for Alasdair McDonnell. In 2017, that argument was not settled

and we have seen it on Twitter, some dodgy bar graphs floating around,

there has been inside the anti-DUP opposition, as it were, battle

raging and I am back -- best place to stop them. What I am saying, in

the last election, the argument was settled well before polling day,

that if you wanted to stop the DUP, you had to vote for Alasdair

McDonnell. That argument was not settled before polling day this

time. We will see how Mairtin O'Muilleoir does. Last time he

talked up his chances and came in fourth place, he did not do as well

as he would have led people to believe. There is nothing to say he

was not topping the poll when he said it. Here's the thing, Niall, if

he was, he did not know. Here is another election ahead of us. I

would contest, the biggest battle royale in south Belfast was going on

internally in the DUP. I have been canvassing in south Belfast and the

one thing I took away from it is that people have been hugely engaged

on the door so they have been talking about Brexit and the issues

affecting our broader politics, about getting the institutions and

the executives backed up and running and that is why our teams will be at

the talks on Monday but that frame of mind. I do think south Belfast to

be fair, I have heard a couple of people talk about nerds and geeks,

anyone who has been watching it has been in for an interesting contest.

It certainly has. I need to let Stephen come in as a representative

of the fourth party in the mix. A lot of people thought that Paula

Bradshaw did well in the outside broadcast from Saint Georges market

last Thursday night. She is a serious contender and we will see

what happens. There is very little hard data coming through from South

Belfast and we have is the anecdotal evidence on the ground. That was

extremely tightly fought and it will be tight in terms of the final. We

experienced Hoople coming to Paula coming from other parties even if

people were persuaded to go to other parties from different perceptions.

It is a real shame that we have the first past the post system, does not

accurately reflect the views in the constituency. It may well be that

the DUP do come through later on. We will see in the small hours of the

morning. It will be one where they are very much at odds with the

majority view. I will come back to you. I want to go out and about for

a moment too because we have Sylvia Hermon here's the Independent

candidate joining us from Bangor. Lady Hermon, nice to see you, how

are you feeling at this very early stage in proceedings? It is a very

early stage in proceedings. I have got a cup of tea but I cannot have a

cup of tea. It is quite interesting. It is very interesting in the count,

there were predictions that I would be home and dry, but I never feel

like that. I am always the one who thinks, come one election, you're

swept away because people want a change. The boxes, the ballot boxes

coming back and have shown that the DUP candidate has done better than

he himself might have predicted. He has done well. It is actually quite

close. There is no chance of Alex Easton overtaking Sylvia Hermon.

You're defending at 17,000 689 votes, 49% of the vote. This is not

a marginal we are talking about. It is not, but there have been

significant changes in two years and one of them of course is Brexit. And

I was very strongly in favour of remaining within the European Union

and so I have had of voters on the doorsteps who have asked me if I

would've Brexit and I said and then they did not wish to give me their

vote even though Article 50 has been triggered and we are on our way out

of Europe. That did play into this election, unfortunately, and then of

course there is this Sinn Fein argument about every vote that they

get, that they want to get, will they think take them to secure

border poll. There were issues on the doorsteps that have not arisen

in the past. We saw pictures of you talking to the Ulster Unionist

candidate in the neighbouring constituency of strife, Mike

Nesbitt, we are looking at the pictures now, you have a clipboard

in your hand and you are gesticulating and he is smiling,

what we're talking about? In the recent past, we did not appear to

have had much by way of conversation and sadly, sadly actually, we were

talking about a funeral that the two of us had, died in sad

circumstances, a character, you will know who I am talking about and we

did not have a chance to talk and I was reflecting upon the time that

David Trimble had stood down as leader of the Ulster Unionist Party

in 2005 when he lost his seat, the pressure I had commander at that

time and I was in Neil Stuke Unionist party, to lead the party.

None of the newspapers running with this story thought about phoning me

and asking me if I was interested in being the leader. So it was a

reflective moment with Mike Nesbitt, just saying to him, that he had

tried his very best in leading the Ulster Unionist Party and it is not

an easy job and I was very glad I did not do it in 2005. That is an

interesting little insight into the conversation. Before I ask you about

the national picture, is he making positive noises about his prospects

in Strangford? It will be difficult for him to take that seat from the

incumbent Jim Shannon. You do not talk about it at all? Sorry, we did

not talk about it, because the ballot boxes for North Down actually

came in first and to my knowledge, there have not been many boxes

brought in from Strangford. How he fares in Strangford, did not

actually appear in our conversation at all and I did not ask him and he

did not offer any view about Strangford at all. It was actually

just reflecting upon his leadership of the party and 2005 when David

Trimble stood down. Very quickly before we move on to talk to other

people, can I ask you for your view of the exit poll, the national

picture which suggests that the calculation by Theresa May to call

this snap election could have backfired. What do you make of those

numbers? Well, I remember Easter Tuesday and I remember Christmas and

subsequent Christmas, that Theresa May put, who said that we would not

have an early election. Country needed a period of stability and

calm after the Brexit vote and then on Easter Tuesday, the Prime

Minister turns up to the Cabinet meeting and announces to the

Cabinet, at half past eight in the morning that there will be a snap

general election. I was one of 13, there was not a queue in the

division lobby when I voted against the general election and her

decision to call a general election. I thought it was a daft decision

then and I think that there were certainly some in her party if not

Theresa May herself who will be reflecting on it if the exit polls

are anywhere close and correct this evening. Then, she is in a very

difficult position, she is in a bit of a pickle. She did not need this,

she had a comfortable majority, she had not lost a single vote for

Brexit and to have turned this general election, as she explained

on the steps of Downing Street on Easter Tuesday morning, that this

was to strengthen her hands going into the Brexit negotiations, if the

exit polls are anything to go by, and there is no guarantee that they

are accurate at this stage, because it is very early evening. It

certainly has not strengthened her hand going into Brexit negotiations,

quite the opposite. OK, very interesting to hear your thoughts,

thank you very much for joining us. We will maybe catch up with you

later when we hear how you have done in North Down. Thank you very much

indeed. Thank you, you're very welcome. Let us pick up on some of

what she was saying. Danny Kennedy, no lover of course of the

Conservative Party, she left the Ulster Unionist Party in 2010 the

cars of the experiment which did not work terribly well. She's not a

lover of the Conservative Party and it is pretty obvious there, her

view, it is fair to say, if this backfires for treason in May, she

will not have any great sympathy for her. That is probably accurate. She

has always had strong views, particularly about the Conservative

Party, led primarily at the time by David Cameron who basically ignored

her when they both entered the hazard, that the same time. They are

not just personal reasons -- like when they both entered the House of

Commons. Would she be a good leader of the

unionist Party Your candidate was announced for this election. You

withdrew him and Robin Swann said we don't need to run a candidate

because Sylvia her monk is there. If you like the Ulster Unionist Party

vote for Sylvia. That is is exactively what he said. Most people

would accurately conclude that she reflects very much Ulster unionist

outlooks and general views. OK. Christopher, interesting to hear her

saying shelf wasn't going to get drawn into any sense of triumphalism

she is defending an enormous majority. She is saying your

candidate, Alex Easton may have done better than he was expecting to do?

I worked for one of our Assembly members in North Down. It was peter

weir. I remember when he ran against Lady her monk in 2005. To run

against her in North Down. She is the rock of gee bralt are, you will

not shift her. What we will look for in North Down if we get an increase

in our vote in that constituency, that goes well for us for future

elections. You will never get her out, but when she decides she's had

enough. That is when it gets interesting? In our candidate, Alex

Easton, we talked about this at the start of the programme, Alex Easton

is someone again who built his entire position in that constituency

on the basis of hard graft on the ground for people. I would like to

see Alex rewarded for that with an increase in his vote and, if we do

increase our vote in North Down, running against Lady Her -- Hermon.

That would be a considerable It is rather achievement. Interesting that

at the conclusion I understand of the Assembly election count, one of

the successful DUP candidates effectively served notice on Lady

Sylvia. We will be interesting to see the outcome of that. Forgive me

if I go first to the Valley Leisure Centre to talk about South and East

Antrim. What are you hearing. We were talking to Sammy Wilson a short

time ago he wasn't giving much away we are not expecting any great

surprises there. What about South Antrim? Well, two very different

constituencies, Mark. You know, South Antrim and East Antrim. East

Antrim not expecting too many surprises. South Antrim, a whole

different kettle of fish. South Antrim is one of those

constituencies that is a genuine yo-yo constituency in Northern

Ireland. It has changed hand four times since 1997. Back in the last

general election it was Danny Kinahan of the Ulster Unionist Party

that took that seat from Willie McCrea by 949 votes. Now the DUP are

up against Mr Kinahan again this time round. It's Paul Girvan. Paul

Girvan topped the poll here in the Assembly election back in March and

his party, the DUP, polled 13% more than the Ulster Unionist Party. Make

of that with a you like. What we are hearing at the moment is that it is

all very neck and neck. As you said, East Belfast, Sammy Wilson's seat,

since 2005. He has held that seat. Back then he had around 50% of the

vote. That dropped to about 36% in 2015. But he was 17% ahead of his

nearest rivals. I reckon that could be Mr Wilson's seat. It's all to

play for here in South Antrim. Thank you very much indeed. She has done

what I did ten minutes ago and referred to Samily Wilson in East

Belfast. It's East And rim. Gerry Adams is walking into the count