Part 1 Election 2017: Scotland

The campaign is over, the polls are about to close. Time then to find

out just how many surprises Theresa May's surprise election has in

store. Hello and welcome to BBC Scotland's

general election results coverage, live from our headquarters at

Pacific key in Glasgow. Of course, we will cover all the big moments

from around the country. Will Theresa May's gamble to call a snap

election pay off, as she looks to strengthen her grip on power? And

Jeremy Corbyn overtake in the race for Number Ten? Will Nicola Sturgeon

repeat her party's remarkable results from two years ago? And can

Tim Farron revive the fortunes of his Liberal Democrats? Up all night

to help answer those questions are our political editor. Let's keep it

simple. If you want to know who is winning the race for Number Ten,

stay right here with us. If you want to know who's running in Scotland,

stay with us. If you want to know what the results mean for Brexit and

a second independence referendum, stay with us. Any minute now, we

will have the exit poll. Helping us with graphics is David Henderson. We

will be painting a picture with those results as they come in. This

has been the UK's electoral map. Will the balance of power shift

dramatically? Nothing could be certain. After a tumultuous few

decades in politics. Stay with us to discover who will be the next Prime

Minister holding the keys to Number Ten. With all the election headlines

from Scotland across the UK, Jackie Bird. Look at the engine room of our

coverage. The results come from here. We have a hotline to every

count in Scotland. Here are some of the 700 counting staff at the

Emirates arena. Seven Glasgow constituencies. Pictures from

Dumfries where David Mundell will learn his fate. We will bring you

the game changing moments and the best pictures. We will also follow

the key players and commentators on social media. And they have all the

gossip covered in our election cafe with Fiona. We are giving you an

alternative to the politicians. We are brought together journalists

from across the political spectrum. Spin doctors, bloggers and our own

cartoonist. Follow us on social media. We have experts and

politicians here. As you can see, Big Ben is fast approaching 10pm. So

it won't be long before we find out who you have decided to send to

Westminster. And of course who is going to be our next Prime Minister.

Big Ben CHIMES. It is 10pm. The exit poll suggests the Conservatives will

be the largest party after the 2017 general election. If it is correct,

Theresa May will be short of an overall majority. Not the result she

hoped for when she called this snap election. Let's get more details

with Brian. Thank you. As a result of the poll, the prediction is the

Conservatives will be on 314 seats, that is down 17. The same poll

predicts labour around 266, up 34 seats. The SNP would have 34 seats,

down 22. The Lib Dems on 14, that is up six. And 22 others, including

three Plaid Cymru and one green. If these figures are correct, if,

Theresa May would be 12 short of an overall majority. A worse position

than she started the election with. Some caveats. It is a sample poll,

30,450 people sampled. 144 polling stations, ten across Scotland. Real

voters and the exit poll tells us what they actually said. We were

updated with the details as they come in. Beer in mind, if these

results are correct, Theresa May will not have the mandate she hoped

for. If these results are correct, she will not be able to argue that

she has given herself greater strength for the negotiations with

the European Union. If these results are correct, Theresa May is going to

face some pretty big questions from her own party. If they are correct.

And astonishing exit poll. That cross to David Henderson in a moment

to see what the House of Commons would look like if that Paul turned

out to be correct, but first some immediate reaction from the

politicians on our panel. I will start with the introductions. Jeanne

Freeman from the SNP. Steve McColl from the Scottish Liberal Democrats.

Murdo Fraser, if this is how the election turns out, then will it

have been worth the There are a lot of ifs and buts in an election poll.

In 2015, there was a suggestion would be hung parliament. We will

need to wait and see. In Scotland, it shows the SNP on 34 seats. That

would be an astonishing decline for the SNP who went into this election

holding 56 out of 59 seats. To end up with 34 seats would really be a

dramatic reverse for Nicola Sturgeon. I would agree with all the

sandbox. If the exit poll is correct, it is an extraordinarily

bad result for the Conservatives because Theresa May not only called

this snap election with a majority, she called it with a significant

lead in the polls and that result does not suggest that she has

maintained that significant lead in the polls. From the SNP's point of

view, if we have a majority of seats in Scotland, then that will be a

good result for the SNP. In 2010, we only had six MPs. 2015 was an

extraordinary probably once in a century result. We would hope for

better than 34, I'm sure we will get better than 34, but it is not a

disaster for the SNP. It is a disaster for the Tories to make. Is

there any scenario looking at these numbers were Jeremy Corbyn might end

up as prim minister? Let's wait and see. If these results turn out to be

correct, that is important. What do we know? We know Theresa May had a

disastrous campaign. I can't remember party leader as bad an

election campaign as Theresa May. I would suggest Nicola Sturgeon

couldn't find her fitting either. I am perhaps less surprised than

others of the direction this Paul suggests. But we have learned in

recent years that exit polls might throw up unexpected results. In

Scotland, we were the prounion party. I am still hoping we can do

well in Scotland. It would be interesting to know how many of

those six seats that we are going up might be in Scotland. I hope several

of them. Overall, I think the message here is for parties in

government this looks like a bad result. For Theresa May in the

United Kingdom going down. And for Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP in

Scotland going down. To be honest, far more than I ever expected, if

this is true. We were astonished by the exit poll two years ago and by

and large it turned out to be largely accurate. To confirm, it is

suggesting the Conservatives will be the largest party but short of an

overall majority. David Tennant rock through what the House of Commons

would look like if the poll turns out to be accurate. Let's look at

the House of Commons chamber. This is how the exit poll to night would

look if it is converted into MPs. On the blue benches, the Conservatives

would sit as the largest party. The exit poll predicting the Tories

would 314 seats. The largest party at Westminster. But we are set to

lose 17 MPs in this election. On the site, the red of labour, set to

remain the largest opposition party with 266 MPs. Their support is up.

The expected to gain 34 MPs. We will be pleased to have made gains, but

there is no majority in parliament for them. The next biggest party, a

block of yellow for the SNP. 34 members of parliament. If that exit

poll is converted into reality, there is a disappointing night in

prospect for Nicola Sturgeon. Are party set to lose 22 of the seats

they have held in Scotland. Then that sliver of Orange, the Lib Dems

now have 14 MPs. A bit of a comeback, but no great breakthrough.

Six more than last time. And the others, the parties of Northern

Ireland, the Welsh nationalists and the Greens, 22 in total. Let's look

at the all important finishing line. You can see the Tories look to have

failed to win an overall majority. 326 is the magic number. Shot by 12

members. Theresa May called the selection to tighten her grip for

Brexit and tonight it looks as though that strategy has failed.

Whilst she is still in charge of the largest party in the House of

Commons, she will be disappointed. More reaction from our election cafe

and see for the first time tonight, dealing to Fiona. We have had time

to chew over those results. It is a prediction. Let's see how that

marries what this lot have been writing about. Kevin Pringle,

formerly of the SNP, your first reaction? This would be a dramatic

setback for the Conservatives, particularly for Theresa May. She

only went to the country to get an overwhelming majority. On these

figures, no majority at all. It is hard to see how she could continue

in her position. Of course, this is only a prediction. We can be very

different when the results come in. For the SNP, that is a significantly

smaller number than last time. But that smaller group would have a

significant influence because if that is no overall majority then

that is a potential balancing power situation. So yes smaller figure but

possibly with more clout than we have seen in the last couple of

years. It might be that these figures are adjusted as the real

results come in. You have had your calculator out and are doing some

thoughts. There was a gasp of surprise in the cafe. What are your

thoughts? Theresa May wanted a coronation and on these figures she

is getting a kicking. It is extraordinary. If these are anywhere

near accurate, just a disastrous results were. We were imagining the

other European leaders sniggering at these results, in a manner of

schadenfreude. If it is true. If it is not true, we will be the ones who

are getting the schadenfreude, won't we? What was your first reaction? I

was astonished. With the usual caveats, it might not be accurate,

if it is remotely accurate, Theresa May's position as prim minister is

utterly untenable. She called an early election which she thought she

would have a landslide majority, on the Labour side, critics of Jeremy

Corbyn who insisted he is unelectable, it will be far more

difficult to remove him now. Personally I think he should still

be removed, but it is extraordinary. Back to your calculations. It is not

just about words. Tonight the election cafe is about pictures.

Neils Lawrence is with us. Yaz sketch does something.

It is hilarious she has called the election and lost her majority. She

did say strong and stable a lot of times. I don't think it has done the

trick. We are also all about social media and people have been reacting

on Twitter. One says, not again. Hung Parliament. SNP will win in

Scotland. And David, hung Parliament, I'll take that. Very

interesting. You can join in the conversation at BBC election cafe.

Let's bring in Brian Taylor. If it turns out this mean, what does it

mean for parties and the heads of parties. First the Conservatives

don't have a majority in the House of Commons. There wouldn't be enough

of Labour, the SNP and the Liberal Democrat to make an alliance. The

Conservatives could govern as a minority. But they entered the

election with the purpose of strengthening their mandate for

European negotiations, which I always thought was piffle, I don't

think the European nations will change their point of view. But it

was said to strengthen the Prime Minister's hand in getting it past

the House of Commons. The closing polls by the various companies

suggesting a lead for the Tories of about 10 points in some, but only

one in the one poll. Lord Ashcroft, the Conservative peer has done has a

poll and he has scenarios based on projected turn out. He said the

probable outcome is 363 seats for the Tories, or a majority of 76.

That is a different picture from the exit poll. But if the exit poll is

correct, I don't see how Theresa May can survive. Those pictures are from

Islington North, Jeremy Corbyn's constituency. How would you read the

exit poll. It almost certainly not be exactly like that. But they have

a pretty good track record with exit polls, it will probably be close. It

is at odds with some of the opinion polls we have had. But one, a number

of advantages that those doing the exit polls have not just it is

bigger numbers, it is people who have actually voted, but also the

pollsters have struggled with what to do with those who are less likely

to vote and having to wait for the data, you don't have that problem

with an exit poll, because they have already voted. It may not be exact,

but I would expect it to be close to that. Thank you both. Now let's get

around the country. There are 17 declarations happening in our three

biggest cities, the biggest in Glasgow. Let's cross there live and

Aileen Clarke is at the Emirates stadium. Hi, well as you can see the

sorting of the postal votes is well under way. And let me remind you of

the kind of evening we had two years ago. Around here Nicola Sturgeon

lined up what she called her Magnificent Seven, the SNP took

every single Westminster seat and there were some very glum Labour

faces. This time, six out of her Magnificent Seven ride again.

Natalie McGarry isn't standing after being accused of embezzlement. And

could this be where Labour starts a fight back to claw back what they

lost so bitterly here two years ago. If the SNP are going to lose that

many seats, is it possible they may lose one in Glasgow? They were

confident they would hold on to them. But we will have to wait and

see. Also appearing here we will have Patrick Harvie, something of a

lone Ranger, the only green candidate. We will have to wait

until about 3 o'clock. But it might well be worth staying up to wait on

the Glasgow results this time. We will have the good, the bad and

let's hope it doesn't get ugly and now let's head east to Edinburgh.

Thank you. The first thing to say that is exit poll has caused a stir

here in the counting room in Edinburgh. A lot of people on their

phones trying to work out what those numbers mean for their respective

parties, people in huddles down there on the floor and the

volunteers carry on with their job. The first declaration we expect

between 2 and 3. The last between 4 and 5. Fascinating to see what

happens Marley in light of -- particularly in light of that exit

poll. To focus on a couple. Edinburgh South is where Iain Murray

won for Labour in 2015 when at the end of the night he was the only

Labour MP left in Scotland. But he is pushing to win that seat.

Fascinating to see what challenge he has from the SNP and the

Conservatives in light of that exit poll. The other interesting seat

here in Edinburgh West, that was one by Michelle Thompson in 2015, but

she resigned the party whip for the SNP. That constituency will have a

new MP. That is where the Liberal Democrats are fighting hard. We will

find out at the end of the night five MPs to be elected here and a

fascinating night ahead here and in Aberdeen. It will be interesting to

see how that exit poll works out. This is a part of country where the

Conservatives expected to do well. Five seats up for grab. Five that

were held by the SNP in 2015. Early intelligence suggesting that

Aberdeen South is looking very tight between the Conservatives and the

SNP, who took the seat in 2015 from Labour. Aberdeenshire West and

Kincardine, I'm told the Conservatives will be disappointed

if they don't take that seat. It is a seat they took in the Scottish

Parliament elections. The SNP not denying the possible they will lose

that seat. And Gordon where Alex Salmond was elected and Banff and

Buchan where there is signs of a switch in the fishing communities

between the SNP and the Tories over Brexit. And I'm told that the turn

out is high there. Thank you. We are going to continue to go around the

country in just a moment. But let's just recap on the exit poll

headlines with Jackie Bird. The headline is the result of that exit

poll, which has predicted the Conservatives are the largest party,

but they have lost their majority. They're on course to lose 17 seats.

Let's show the figures. It puts the Conservatives on 314. That is down

by 17. Labour is on 266. Up by 34. The SNP down by 22 on 34 and the

Liberal Democrats are on 14 which would be up by 6. Others on 22.

Reaction coming in thick and fast. Speaking a few moments ago, the UK

Defence Secretary was cagey about predictions in general. Well, we

didn't, I never believed the original poll showing us 20 points

ahead. In an election you get a tightening between the parties, that

was happening. But I think it is very early to start on the basis of

what is a projection before we have had a single actual result. Let's

wait and see. For the SNP, if we have a majority of seats in

Scotland, then that will be a good result for the SNP. You know n 2010

we only had six MPs. 2015 was an extraordinary, probably once in a

century result. So 34 we would hope for better and I'm sure we will get

better. But it is not a disaster for the SNP, but it is a disaster for

the Tories tonight. There is a race to be the first constituency to

declare first and they are literally racing in Sunderland. There they

are. Let's look at the reaction on Twitter to that exit poll. The BBC's

Andrew Neil said it would be a disastrous result for the

Conservatives. Glenn. Every election night has its

wow moment. Brian Taylor looks ahead to what those might be tonight.

Elections, manifesto launches, claim and counter claim, the battle bus.

Political spin. Media fact-checking. But in the final analysis a general

election rests on one thing - that is winning in individual

constituencies. So let's look at some of the most interesting

contests in Scotland, bearing that the SNP start the night defending an

astonishing 56 out of 59 constituencies. The most marginal

seat is Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk. The Conservatives candidate

is so confident he has quit his Holyrood seat. So will he end up on

the green benches or are a red face? And other Tory hopes are Dumfries

and Galloway and Perth and North Perthshire. How about Labour? Their

biggie is to hold Iain Murray's seat in Edinburgh South. Labour hope to

take East Lothian. Iain Gray held on to the equivalent Scottish

Parliament seat. And there is Edinburgh east where the SNP

candidate resigned. The Liberal Democrats, how about East

Dunbartonshire. Other Liberal Democrat hopes are North East Fife,

Edinburgh West and Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross. A final

thought, can the Tories take Moray from Angus Robertson, the SNP's

Westminster leader. The SNP vote was squeezed in the Holyrood elections.

Can they go further? Privately Tories say that would be their

Portillo moment, remember the defeat for Michael Portillo that epitomised

the 1997 election. It coined a catch phrase, were you still up for

Portillo. The SNP say dream on. Hey, why don't you stay up with us and

see how it goes? More from Brian tonight. Some words from George

Osborne, the former Chancellor, he said if the exit poll is right, that

would be catastrophic for Theresa May and further criticism from Sir

Craig Oliver suggesting her gamble has failed. Now around the country

and look more at the prospects for the Conservatives in Scotland

tonight. We will cross to the most marginal seat with Cameron butt

until Kelso. First to Perth and Graham Stuart. Are the Tories in

confident mood there? Yes, this is one of their top target seat and

looks like being one of the most closely fought contests. Pete

Wishart has a majority of just under 10,000, but he admitted he is

running neck and neck with the Tories and that this contest is too

close to call N a curious phrase, he warns voters of the dangers of

waking up with a Tory MP on Friday morning. That Tory is the member of

Parliament Iain donical, ical -- Duncan. He will be looking for a new

job soon and if the bookies are to be believed, he has good chance of

winning. So what is going on here? The SNP have had Dom Nance here for

the -- dominance here for 20 years, but in the referendum, 60% of people

voted against Scottish independence, making the area more unionist than

average. But the first beneficiary of the polarisation of politics was

Pete Wishart himself, he more than doubled his majority last time to

just under 10,000, but recent election results have made grim

reading for the SNP. In the Scottish Parliament elections John Swinney

saw his majority slashed and if that trend continues and we saw the

Conservatives take control of Perth and Kinross council f that

continues, there is a chance Scotland's longest serving MP could

be out of a job. We are expecting a declaration at around half pavs 3.

It doesn't get any tighter than this. 320 last time around. Johan

Lamont for the Conservatives is standing for the fourth time. Well

this week, the Prime Minister and the First Minister were in the

Borders fighting for every vote. The big question for many is where is

the Michael Moore fought for the Liberal Democrats going to go this

time? This time they have a little-known candidate. Ian Davidson

is a local boy from Jabra. But Labour are a long way off the pace.

I have been Ruth Davidson a few times in the Borders. I spoke to

Calum Kerr at the SNP. He said at the beginning of the campaign he

felt like the second horse in this race. Now they are feeling very

positive. Not the only fight in town. We are counting the votes for

the Holyrood seat that Johan Lamont give up to stand for Westminster.

Thank you, back to you as the night unfolds. At the last general

election, Scotland returned just one Conservative MP, the Scottish

Secretary David Mundell. Is he confident of holding his seat and

perhaps helping the Tories paint the size of Scotland blue? Let's find

out in the company of Reeva Lord Of in Dumfries.

I don't think he is hearing is at the moment. We will come back to

him. The first base for the Conservatives is to hold onto

Dumfries and when two additional seats. Let's get more of an overview

of the election. We have lots of ways to show the results. Here is

our electoral map and it reveals who has been chosen to represent voters.

The colours sure who did best at the last election. Yellow across so much

of Scotland. Blew across so much of England. It shows with the Tories

are strongest. Red patches are the heartlands for a Labour. This

picture emerged from the 2015 election. But the exit poll tonight

shows the pattern is set to change. These constituencies are not all the

same size, but if he were, this is how they would look. This map shows

all 650 parliamentary seat across the UK as if they are identical in

shape and size. A different picture. Tonight, we are starting from zero.

The UK is a blank slate. And we will focus in on Scotland to see how the

parties are feeling here. Will the SNP's dominance continued? Will

rivals gain ground at their expense? We will fill it up through the night

as the result is poor in. The leaders of the political parties

have fought a long campaign as they fight for power. They will be really

know and all they can do is wait for the results. There is Tim Farron.

Nicola Sturgeon. Jeremy Corbyn. Theresa May. Will she get the

increased majority she is looking for? If the exit poll is to be

believed, she hasn't. Will she stay on as Prime Minister? In House of

Commons, we will show you how these results play out. We will crunch the

numbers to see if the Tories will remain dominant here. The number of

MPs from each party is almost certain to change. There is a

winning line that any party has to cross to win the majority of seats.

According to the exit poll, the Tories are just short. Bad news for

them as they bid to form a government. We have lots more tricks

up our sleeve. All becoming clearer as the night unfolds. Keep watching.

As we get results, the experts will crunch the numbers and continue to

update the forecast for how many seats each of the parties may have

and whether we will have a situation where one party is the largest but

short of an overall majority or whether one party will make it over

that winning line and be able to form a government on its own with

the votes that it needs to get the work done that it wants to in the

House of Commons. Let's cross to the cafe. This was the election that no

one really saw coming and I think that was the exit poll that not many

people saw coming. Gasps in the cafe. We spoke around the tables of

the issues people were voting on. On Twitter, you revealed you decided

very last minute to go for SNP and change to Labour. I believe in

Scottish independence. I have supported the SNP in the past. As

much as I was pretty sure I was going to vote SNP today, once I was

in the polling booth, I felt like taking a punt. Different things

informed voter behaviour. I know that I want and what I don't want.

Other things go on. Divisions in our culture, people who annoy us on

Twitter. When I started to put the cross on the box, I imagined it was

a very small hand going over the mouth of Pete Wishart. There is

something about the yes movement I support but has not been there. And

Jeremy Corbyn essentially calls my Bluff. He calls the bluff of the

Tories and also his own party. It is the same with the Nationalist

movement. What he proposes is something that is genuinely

left-wing. Something of genuine substance. I appreciate the

restrictions on the SNP. I think they are for medical political

force. If there is another independence referendum, I am behind

them. But this vote today, I decided to vote Labour. It is a prediction

and the SNP would still be the largest party in Scotland. You drew

breath when the exit poll results were announced? After the initial

gasp, it fits in with the anything can happen in politics which seems

to be prevailing across the world. Once the initial shock settles and

you hear the warnings of exit polls, you think, we have those SNP seats

gone? Is that the Tories, is it Labour? It will be fascinating to

see how the vote goes. What issues do you think people were voting on?

Darren says he voted for Jeremy Corbyn to do something radical. I

think Indy ref to play a factor. I think they have taken the chance to

have a say in health and education. I think there is a huge cross-border

divide. Size of the border, we heard a lot of discussion about the

dementia tax, capping care costs. Means testing cold-weather payments

which might not apply north of the border. When you see the Scottish

leader debates, you saw health and education coming into that, even

though Westminster MPs will not have a say on those issues. I agree with

Darren and Allison that there has been a huge movement for taking a

punt and doing something different. I will be curious to know what

proportion of the vote is the youthful. How much of this is young

people who have been mobilised for the first time because there's been

a lot of action on Twitter trying to get people out there. Maybe it has

worked. Lots more to unfold overnight. All the reaction from our

journalists, spin doctors and our cartoonists. If you want to join the

conversation, please do. Follow us on Twitter. In a moment, we will get

a sense of how that exit poll might play out in Scotland, but first we

will try again to speak to our reporter in Dumfries. We had a power

surge here, which cost our communications to fall off the air.

That is why I was not able to speak to you. I couldn't hear you. We are

wondering now whether there will be any other sort of surge in the South

of Scotland. Two constituencies are being counted in Dumfries. Dumfries

and Galloway is enormous. All the way from Stranraer in the West right

across to Dumfries. Then an equally large constituency which is

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale. It goes from ten miles

south of the Edinburgh city border all the way down to the border with

England at Gretna. It is the seat of David Mundell, the Scottish

Secretary. He is of course the only Scottish Tory MP from the last

Parliament. Will he be joined by any others? If the polls are to be

believed, we may well see a Tory MP in Dumfries and Galloway. The Tories

have pulled steadily over the last few years, about 16,000 votes in

2010 and 2015. Last time around the SNP took the Dumfries Galloway

seat by increasing their vote from something like 6000 up to 23,000.

There was a collapse of Russell Brown's vote for Labour. The SNP

pushed David Mundell very hard in the Dumfriesshire seats. He has a

majority of less than 800. The Greens stood in that seat last time

and got around about that number of votes. They are not standing this

time and predictions were that those votes might go to the SNP and they

can take the seat, it doesn't look so likely no. How ironic would it be

if, when the dust has settled tomorrow, if the Tory government in

Westminster was propped up by Tory MPs in Scotland after all of the

jibes throughout the 1980s and 90s of Labour MPs propping up the Labour

Party at Westminster? A fascinating account ahead of us. I don't think

we will get a result until 5am for either seat. Thank you. The

bookmakers amongst others are expressing surprise at the exit

poll. Ladbrokes have already changed their odds of artists having a new

Prime Minister within the course of 2017, the odds of Theresa May being

replaced, 4-5. Let's bring in Brian Taylor. Give us more of a sense of

how this exit poll would play out in Scotland. This is an exit poll by

Ipsos MORI for the free broadcasters, BBC, ITV and sky. SNP

on 34, down 22. At that level, if it is down 22, that is quite remarkable

drop I have to say, the state of the campaign, but at that level they

would be losing some of the key seats that would come into play,

like Murray, Angus, Perth and North Perth. You could even be talking

about losing Paisley and Renfrewshire South, Mhairi Black's

seat, to Labour. It is that level. 22 losses is not just the South of

Scotland which were expected, the North East Fife that was possible

and East Dunbartonshire which was talked about. You're bringing in

pretty big names as well. By stating those names, the very scope of those

defeats, perhaps it adds to the scepticism one might have with

regard to the fact the exit poll is just that, just a sample. We have

been talking a lot about this campaign in Scotland about the

possibility of the Conservatives winning back seats that we haven't

held for a very long time. But if the SNP were to lose 22 seats, it

sounds like all opposition parties might be in for a good night?

There may well be more caveats with respect to Scotland, there were

fewer counting stations used in the exit polls. But some of the seat by

seat analysis that the pollsters have identified seem to suggest that

most of gains for Labour are not in Scotland. But in England mainly,

perhaps in Wales also. But it may well be the case that Labour has a

good night over all, but not in Scotland. Look how fast they're

getting votes into the counting station in Sunderland. Sunderland is

always part of the country that works really hard to try and bring

us one of the first declarations. Let's bring in our political panel

again. I couldn't help noticing a smile on Douglas Alexander's face

when Brian mentioned Marie Black. Who defeated you two years ago. I

was knocking on the doors in the seat last night and I was out this

morning and I picked up two changes. First, I had a very strong memory of

people saying, I'm sorry, I'm not going to vote for you, but for

Nicola. One of the most remarkable changes just in the last couple of

years is that people are saying, I'm not voting for that woman. The

collapse in personal support for Nicola Sturgeon was striking to me

on the doorsteps in Paisley and there was a sense that people were

still making up their mind last night and I couldn't remember a past

election where literally on the eve of the poll people were shifting,

they were saying, I voted SNP and I'm voting Labour. Some say I'm

thinking about voting Labour, but I'm not sure. But the movement was

away from the SNP. In that sense I'm probably a little less surprised

than the panel, because if the results are this accurate, not only

has Theresa May lost kr credibility, but we are seeing Nicola Sturgeon

lose almost half her seats, it would be a significant shift from the

British nationalism that Theresa May was arguing for and the Scottish

nationalism that Nicola Sturgeon argued for. Have you picked up a

change in attitude towards Nicola Sturgeon as head of your party, as

First Minister, a shift in how people were approaching this

election? No, I haven't. I think for a party that's been in government in

Scotland for ten years, the level of support for the party and the

government and what we are doing there is extraordinarily strong and

remains strong. That singles out the government in Scotland from a lot of

the UK parties who have been in government for that length of time.

I want to say just one other, I think important caveat, because I'm

struggling to think where these 22 seats would go. And my point is

this, that as I understand it and Brian and Nicola will correct me if

I'm wrong, as I understand it, only ten polls stations were in that

sample from Scotland. That's correct. That is a bit of a caveat.

To be fair we have been caveating the poll. But if you're going

backwards in the election rather than forwards, which has been the

pattern for at least ten years, would it be fair of your opponents

to say that we have passed peak Nat and you no longer have momentum? No,

even if you accept the exit poll, 34 is still the majority of seats in

Scotland and I tell you what that also says, the unionist parties, in

particular the Conservatives, stood entirely on a platform of no to indy

ref two. Ignoring the scrutiny of the Tories and that will have

absolutely failed. In terms of Scotland, a win's a win, if the SNP

have more seats, would they be entitled to push for a second

referendum? Oh Glenn if I go into a casino with 56 pound and I come out

with 34, I ain't a winner. The SNP started with 56 seats, and 50% of

the vote. Even if they're nowhere near as down as the poll suggests,

if it drops half, it shows the people in Scotland are saying to the

SNP, we don't think much of your record in government and you have

been in government ten years and you see from the discussions... Do you

think people will have voted on that, although it is a UK poll? Yes,

it is clear from the BBC debate and what we have been finding on the

doorstep, people are concerned about the SNP's record in Government and

the message that comes back that people are saying, why don't you get

back to the day job. And why obsess over independence. People don't want

another independence referendum. If it is half of what the poll

suggests, that knocks back the independence referendum for a long

time. Nonsense, if the SNP win a majority of seats in Scotland, we

will have won a majority of seats at Holyrood and won more council seats

only a short time ago. And then we will have won the majority of seats

at the Westminster election and people banging on about independence

was all you guys, it wasn't us. You chose to stands on that. Is going to

matter is vote share. Your vote share... That is a knock for a

second independence referendum. I'm going to bring in Nichol Steven.

Your thoughts. It is two elections and astonishing in Scotland and it

is incredible across the UK. Theresa May and Murdo probably won't dwell

on this, he will focus on Scotland, but she has gone from strong and

stable to meek and mangled, her very future as Prime Minister is under

threat. In Scotland we will have a lot of local by-election and there

is a prospect of Labour and the Conservatives and the Liberal

Democrats doing well. We expect to do well in Edinburgh West and North

East Fife. You are predicting wins. If they're correct, I'm confident

there will be wins for us in Scotland. I'm sure of that. The SNP

going into reverse as dramatically as they have is significant. A lot

more to talk about. I want to cross to Paisley and or reporter Fiona

Walker with news from Renfrewshire. You're probably wondering about

Marie Black, people say it would be a surprise if she lost her seat. But

people are wary about their predictions. But this is the stage

where Douglas alexander was unstaged by Marie Black. She was the youngest

MP and she has criticised Wech. Women and children. Her majority is

five and a half thousand. Her constituency here is Paisley and

Renfrewshire North. They were both traditionally as safe Labour seats

as you go get. They went to SNP. The majority is 9,000 and probably is

safer. His people are confident. But we have seen politics turned on its

head so many times, there is no predictions being made here. It is

all down to the numbers and those numbers are on the table. We will

bring them to you around 2.30. We will back to you if you get any

further details. Let's catch up on the headlines now and cross to

Jackie Bird. Thank you. Conservative and Labour figure have reacted

cautiously to the exit poll, but there seems to be a specific

Scottish dimension to the poll regarding the SNP figures,

predicting the party would be down 22 seats to 34. We have been told it

is very tight, suggesting a 50/50 split in many Scottish seats. So

bear in mind. Stuart Hosie reacted to the exit poll. The main story

from it if it's accurate is Theresa May has given up a majority, we now

have again 314 Tories and 314 others and 22 from the Northern Irish

parties. That is an extraordinary thing. For Theresa May to call the

election for narrow party advantage and then if these numbers are

correct to blow it incredibly. Labour will be up to 266 seats. John

McDonnell voiced scepticism of the figures but said it showed the

strength of their campaign. We tried to have a positive campaign modelled

around Jeremy's character, you remember his slogan was honest

politics, straight talking, that is what we have tried to to. If it

reflected in this support, it changes the nature of political

discourse in our country. I think people have got fed up with the

yah-boo politics and the nasty tactics. A positive campaign if it

comes out like this, I think it will improve politics over all. There is

a battle for No 10, but also a battle to declare between Sunderland

and Newcastle, where they have employed young volunteers for that

human chain. We expect a declaration about half past 11. The pound has

fallen after the exit poll cast doubt on whether the Conservatives

would win an over all majority. The pound fell to around $1.27 at one

point. More reaction. Caroline Lucas said:

I ashum that is shocked happy, rather than shocked horrified. -

assume. Now over to David to look at some of the battlegrounds in

England. Some MPs are lucky enough to win by a mile each time. But some

face epic battles. Let's look at some of the battleground

constituency are the sitting MP has a majority of less than 10%. They

could matter in what could be a tight election. Let's start with the

most marginal seat, here it is, Gower in South Wales.

The Conservative's Byron Davis squeaked home. The the margin 0.05%.

And in Scotland, the candidate is a well kent face, David Mundell. The

SNP are snapping at his heels with a majority of 0.8%. The Tories under

pressure. But Labour seats are at risk too. Let's look just south of

the Lake District. There is Barrow. Labour Party in fighting has

affected campaigning. John Woodcock, the incumbents is a critic of Jeremy

Corbyn and he is under pressure from the Tories as he tries to defend a

majority of 0.9% of the vote. That is too close for comfort. This is

the Brexit election and nowhere highlights where that has caused

votes to swing more than Richmond, it is a wealthy part of West London

and it was a safe Tory seat, but last autumn the Tory MP Zac

Goldsmith forced a by-election over a local issue, Heathrow expansion.

And he lost his seat. There was a massive swing to the Liberal

Democrats, who asked voters to pass their verdict on Brexit. He is back

and can he regain the seat or has that bird flown for good? And let's

head to the English Midlands and Corby, that is known as Little

Scotland, because so many Scots came to Corby for its steelworks, this is

known as a bell weather, the vote tends to mirror 2 UK vote. -- the UK

vote. We will look at some of the more marginal seats in Scotland

later. There is a tough battle in some. But its all to play for right

across the UK tonight. Back to you. Let's cross to Elgin in the Moray

constituency where Angus Robertson is defending. How will he do to

night? Craig Anderson is the man in the know. Lossiemouth is a few miles

down the road. It was the birthplace of Ramsay MacDonald, Britain's first

Labour Prime Minister. Year, it is a two horse race. The MP for the past

16 years has been the SNP's Angus Robertson. He is the deputy leader,

and their spokesman at Westminster. Defending a majority of over 9000.

He certainly boosted his profile of late. Even dispassionate observers

have received his performance higher than Jeremy Corbyn's in attacking

the Conservative government led by Theresa May. Murray voted decisively

against independence in the 2014 referendum and it was the one area

in Scotland that came within a whisker of voting for Brexit. Just

0.2 percentage points in its. So with allegiances to fishing and

farming, Douglas Ross for the Conservatives might be preferred. He

has been a Conservative councillor for several years. Last year when he

stood in the Scottish Parliamentary elections he increased Conservative

vote by 18%. Reducing the SNP majority to just 3000. In the last

council elections last month, the Tories overall got the highest share

of the vote. The Tories have seen getting the scalp of Angus Robertson

as something that is due to the hearts and achievable. Ruth Davidson

and Nicola Sturgeon have been here in Moray to try and boost their

candidates' standing in the Paul. And it all may swing on the turnout.

If there is a high turnout and the SNP managed to get their vote out,

then Angus Robertson may hold on. If the turnout is low, we could be

facing a major upset for the party which has held the seat for the past

30 years. You will see behind me those baskets are empty. As the

night progresses, they will contain the verified votes and it will be

easy for us to see who is in the lead. It will be fascinating. Thank

you. Let's bring in our panel once again. Tell us more about the exit

poll and the implications of that. The exit poll is based on

probability. We have sampled people coming out of the polling stations

and compared it with vote shares last time around. The tend to sample

in the same places. Some of them are more likely to go than others.

Within Scotland, they are confident, 90%, that the SNP will lose 11

seats. The other 11 comes more in terms of our balance of probability.

Including the two Paisley seats. It is possible that Labour might pick

up the seat again. But they are less certain or confident about it. One

thing we haven't spoken about this evening so far is turnout.

Everywhere I have been today, it has been pouring. It is likely to have

an impact. There is also a question of differential turnout. Something

which has been concerning SNP candidates has been the idea of a

differential turnout. They could identify potential voters, but could

they turn them out with the same enthusiasm when they won those 56

seats? Or would individual rivals in individual seats, Tories, Labour and

Lib Dems, will they manage to enthuse their support more than the

SNP can do? It is not just turnout, it is differential turnout as well.

Those who have turned out to vote in Sunderland are having their votes

counted at rapid speed because Sunderland is keen to be first with

a declaration from anywhere the UK. You will have seen the high security

in place at that particular account. Let's talk a bit more about the exit

poll in a broader UK context. We spoke about some of the seats that

might be vulnerable in Scotland, but what about in England? The

prediction is the Lib Dems would potentially win four seat in

Scotland. Some could go from the Conservatives to Labour. It is a

sample and it could be wrong completely or slightly. Under the

scenario of the exit poll, Labour could be picking up the likes of

Croydon, Brighton and Enfield. Also the old seat for Ed Balls. They

might be taking that back. Worcester. Direct. Not picking up

Twickenham, where Vince Cable was standing. And keen to get more

detail from one of the constituencies in England. Let's

cross to Tooting in London. Held by Justine Greening. Defended by her.

What are you hearing, Clive? Three counts here in Wandsworth. Putney is

Justine Greening's constituency. Cabinet minister for the

Conservatives, big figure in the party. 10,000 majority in pretty

unassailable. For the Conservatives, that is more than likely a

Conservative hold. The other two constituencies to be counted here

could be very interesting indeed. Tooting and Battersby. Tooting,

Sadiq Khan's old constituency. Now the Mayor of London. In the

by-election, it was held by the Labour Party but with the majority

reduced to just over 6000. Was in Alan can't. The Conservatives have

coveted Tooting for the last two election cycles. Money and resources

into the area. If the overall exit poll is anything to go by, it

suggests the Labour Party have managed to hold on to Tooting.

Battersby is interesting. Conservative, held by Jane Ellison,

a majority of about 8000 but that has been described as being on a

knife edge. Again, going back to the exit poll, that could suggest the

Labour Party may have made inroads there and take on that particular

seats. The other interesting thing about that Battersby area is it as

part of a Romanian area in south London. The 40 to stay in the

European Union. That feeling could be tonight that a lot of voters

anxious about a possible hard Brexit, which some are suggesting

the Conservatives might be pushing for if you don't get the right deal

they want from the Brexit talks, those voters may well have decided

to go with the Labour candidate. Very interesting times here in south

London. Clive, thank you. Let's go to our first declaration. It has

come not from Sunderland but Newcastle Central. Labour have held

Newcastle Central. Labour's vote is up ten percentage

points in Newcastle Central. Conservatives also up but not by as

much as. Ukip is down 11. A couple of years ago, we can see there is a

2.1% swing for Labour. A good result for Chi Onwurah. Returned with an

increased swing. The projection of the swing is not quite as the exit

poll would have suggested. Perhaps we begin, only one result, but let's

caveat this further. Swing to Labour is not as big as the exit poll would

suggest. More fun to come! Let's cross to Glenrothes. Good evening,

Laura. Good evening. Three constituencies to be declared. All

of them SNP at the moment. We will watch two of them closely indeed.

North East Fife held for almost 30 years. Sir Menzies Campbell for the

Liberal Democrats. Stephen Gethins one the SNP with the majority of

4000. The Lib Dems have been trying hard to win the seat back. The local

candidate has been a councillor cure for decades and she thinks that with

her experience and teaching background, she will appeal to

student voters from the University of St Andrews, there is a lot of

farming and agriculture here. North East Fife will definitely be one to

watch, particularly after Willie Rennie took the seat for the

Scottish Parliament election last year. Glenrothes, a big majority

held for the SNP. Not sure if they will be any change. Kirkcaldy and

Cowdenbeath will be one to watch. Labour stronghold under Gordon Brown

for many years. Taken by the SNP two years ago but made at target seat by

the Scottish Labour Party this time around. We will watch to see if they

can take over that majority. In terms of reaction to the exit poll

tonight, I have spoken to and SNP MSP who was surprised at the

apparent loss of seats which seemed possible for the SNP. She said that

wasn't what we had been hearing on the doorstep and one of the

candidates tonight for the SNP has said he was surprised as well and

they had been expecting similar numbers to last time around. We will

know the results from here hopefully between 3am and 4am. North East Fife

is likely to be the one to watch. Let's go up north to Dingwall.

Dingwall is the place where there were something like a parliament in

the past. This is a Highland football academy. Next door to the

Ross County ground. With a training and developing of the future World

Cup winners takes place. Inverness, Nairn and Strathspey. Lochaber.

Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross. Were talking about the tenth

most marginal seat in Scotland. If the exit poll is to be believed,

that will be in play and so might be other two. This was a liberal

country, then Liberal Democrat country. For a huge period of time.

Danny Alexander, Charlie Kennedy. All three seats were lost to the SNP

last time around. Could the Lib Dems get lucky or victorious tonight?

Could Labour or the Conservatives come back into play? We'll have to

wait a week to find out. The logistics of this are enormous. We

are talking about all the way north of Ullapool, east to Cromarty,

across to the Isle of Skye. And of course Ron and egg. We have to get

the ballots back from there. -- the islands of rum and egg. A bit of a

week. I will leave you with this. North Skye and Lochaber is

physically the largest constituency in the UK Parliament. The smallest

constituency by size is what? Why might it be in play tonight? You're

asking me that live on air! Islington North? Where Jeremy Corbyn

is standing. The Liberal Democrats are challenging the SNP and seeking

to regain a seat they previously held is in Dunbartonshire East.

Let's go to the count. Jamie McIvor is in Bishopbriggs.

It is a small constituency compare to one the Ken was describing, all

the ballot boxes have arrived in Bishopbriggs and the papers have

being verified. It will be interesting here, the SNP is

defending a wafer thin majority in Scottish terms of just 2,000. The

Liberal Democrats have been pouring a lot of time and effort into this

seat in the hope that the former MP Jo Swinson will be on her way back

to Westminster. The last time the SNP surged from fourth to first here

and what was interesting was that Swinson increased her vote, but the

SNP vote came from a relatively low level and surged right out in front.

Who are the two main candidates here? Well, the incumbent is John

Nicholson, one of the most high profile of the SNP intake of 2015.

You may remember him as a former television presenter who presented

breakfast news. But since he has been an MP he has been a high

profile SNP MP. His main challenger is the previous incumbent, Jo

Swinson, she was the MP from 2005 until 2015 and served in the

coalition government and seen as a rising star within the Liberal

Democrats. But the Liberal Democrats are hoping it is Jo Swinson's

personal popularity that may see her on the way back to Westminster. One

interesting question is whether the anti-SNP vote here is converging

around the Liberal Democrats or whether the Labour and Conservative

vote will hold up. While the SNP here have been arguing, as they have

been in other places, if you don't want to see a Conservative

government, the best thing to do is vote SNP. But we expecting the

result around 3 o'clock and certainly in view of that dramatic

exit poll, the SNP will be very happy indeed if they hold on here,

while the Liberal Democrats will be disappointed if nay don't make

Scottish names to Webbing. Thank you Scottish names to Webbing. Thank you

-- to Westminster. Now another result. We have two MPs in the UK.

They're both Labour. The result from Sunderland South. Labour holding,

Bridget Phillipson. On a turn out of 61%. So Labour with

59% of the vote. The Labour vote is up 4 and the

Conservative vote up 11 and the vote for Ukip down heavily 16 points.

What do you think of that result? A good result for Bridget Phillipson.

It is a victory for Labour, but not as big a victory as the exit poll

would indicate. That would indicate a better result for the

Conservatives than the exit poll said. The exit poll talked of Tories

down 17 seats and Labour up 34. It may still be borne out. But the

first two, Tyneside and wearside coming in and as so often Tyneside

winning the battle to be first. But neither is indicating in line with

the exit poll in the terms of extents of a Conservative decline.

This is one of most Brexity parts of the UK but the people seem to be

abandoned Ukip and the Tories are benefitting. There is that question

of leave and remain and the question that the Tories it would seem might

be doing better in, from the exit poll, in seats where they were

marginally in the lead. Again it is a question of probabilities, if you

take the straight swing, it produces a result of Labour up 34 and Tories

down 17. If the trend is not as is, if the turn out is not as is, you

get a very different picture, so we keep saying, it is a sample, not a

result. With the two results, it is probably two early to revise the

exit poll. But we will keep an eye on that. I want to cross to

Edinburgh and speak to Tommy Shepherd, who is defending a

constituency in the east of the city. In his two years in the House

of Commons challenged for the deputy leadership of the SNP. Do you

believe the exit poll? I don't know, Glenn. Two years ago we had a

similar poll that predicted the same thing, a hung Parliament and we all

spent a few hours getting excited about it and then it didn't happen.

So I'm, I think I'm on the side of let's wait and see. I know from what

Brian said the first couple of results have people walking back

from the exit polls. Maybe that is good for keeping interest alive in

these hours before we know anything at all. But I think we will have to

wait and see. If it were true it would be a catastrophic night for

the Conservatives and a case of snatching defeat from the jaws of

victory. If it is true, then she will be gone by the morning. If

you're going backwards to Tex tent that this -- to the extent this poll

suggests, and losing 22 seats, wouldn't that be a big for your

hopes of a second independence referendum? Yes, it will still be a

landslide and won more seats than any party in Scotland and won the

general election and had it not been for the absolutely remarkable result

two years ago, people would have said it was a phenomenal result. So

the dogs in the street knew they weren't going to win all 56 seats

that we won the last time. Let's see how many we win, but the SNP is

winning and will win the general election in Scotland and the

Conservatives have failed to get a mandated in Scotland for their

austerity policies and their attempts to block Scottish people

having a choice in their future once we know what Brexit means. Do you

think it would happen in those circumstances? Do I think what would

happen. A second independence referendum? Well, we are convinced

of the need to have a second referendum, once we know what the

Brexit deal is and people see the shape of the United Kingdom that

emerges, of course people should have the opportunities to decide if

that is what they want and that is the United Kingdom they voted to be

part of, or whether they should take powers into their own hands and seek

to be self-governing nation. That is for the Scottish people and not Ruth

Davidson or Theresa May to prevents them having that choice. Of course

it is for the UK to decide whether they transfer the power tosecond

independence referendum. We will talk about that later no doubt.

Thank you very much. Now let's cross to David Henderson for a look at

polling. Tonight's exit poll points to an exciting night, but throughout

election campaigns, opinion polls appear almost daily and at the last

general election just two years ago they were completely wrong as they

predicted a win for the Labour Party. That prompted questions about

the way pollsters make their predictions. The approach has

changed as a result, but it is still hard to know which company to trust

as their current predictions vary. Looking at Scotland in a moment, but

here is the average poll of polls, looking at the Conservatives and

Labour, the biggest UK parties. It shows how people said they would

vote in April after the election was called. Then in May. And in June at

that end. You can see the Conservatives with a pretty solid

lead throughout. But there is a dip for the Tories there. Just before

Theresa May had to make an embarrassing U-turn on social care.

By contrast, Labour's popularity seems to have grown as the months go

on. The red line on the graph heading up which suggests their

strategy of putting Jeremy Corbyn out there with the public seems to

have been working. But take a look at this, different polls tell us

different things and this YouGov poll received a lot of publicity,

pointing to a gap between the Tories and Labour being very close. You can

see they're only 4% between them. So while most pomster -- pollsters

claim Theresa May became more popular once the election was called

and then dipped, YouGov has seen Mrs May's lead to be much less solid

throughout the campaign. And it chimes with tonight's exit poll too.

This is the average poll of polls for voters in Scotland and very

interesting, you can see the SNP dominant still, far and away the

most popular party. But in the latest poll the lead has tumbled and

look at the support it used to get and the voters are appearing to have

gone not to the Tories as many said but to the red, the Labour Party.

Jeremy Corbyn's campaign perhaps gaining traction in Scotland too and

reflected in the exit poll. Whatever they disagree on, the polls all

point to the Conservatives returning as the main party, and the SNP

winning the most Scottish seats, but if those polls are to be believed,

the election could be a set back for both Theresa May and Nicola

Sturgeon. Now let's cross to Aileen Clarke in Glasgow. You have got a

guest? Yes, let me introduce to you, Frank McAveety, a former MSP, are

you going to take back any seats tonight? It is far too early to make

any predictions. If the exit poll is to be believed, the ball is back in

play and hopefully our candidates in Glasgow put up a fantastic fight and

will demonstrate there is a serious pressure from Labour in the city of

Glasgow to the SNP vote that they received in 2015. From the SNP, when

they won the seats, they did so with some style. There are stonking

majorities here, do you think you will win a seat or will you get

close? Again it is hard. I have seen some returns that indicate that we

are back in the fight and if you said to me, after those levels of

majorities, that Labour would be this close, two years later, I think

people would have been saying that is not going to be the case. So we

are back in the fight and people have put out fantastic campaigns,

and the reality if the exit poll is to be believed is Theresa May is

holed below the water line in the UK and the SNP look as if they're going

to lose a substantial number of seats in Scotland. So a message has

been sent to the SNP and the First Minister that preoccupation with

another independence referendum is affecting the SNP vote and we in the

Labour Party have gave the most radical programme we have put

forward in recent generations and that has resonated with people who

have been hurting because of the the Tory governments. What has made the

difference between the council elections and here, Labour is no

longer in control of Glasgow council, it is the SNP that are

running it now. That was skraus few weeks ago. We were told six months

ago the SNP would be a shoe in for a joshgts majority council. But

they're a minority council. What people have seen in this election is

a Labour programme that has resonated with what the concerns of

the public and messages about how we improve public services and make

sure people get the best chance in life. That message has come through

and it was clear for the many and not the few. The SNP was unfocussed

and the Tory message was untrue by the weakness of the Prime Minister.

A shift I think we have a chance to show that, in Glasgow, Labour's back

in the game and if we win some seats that would be amazing. Let's see. We

will see how much you're back in the game when the votes are counted. I

will try and get you an SNP guest. They're a bit tight-lipped at the

moment. That might tell you something at the moment. Thank you.

Now to Fiona and see who her guests are in the cafe. The caffeine is

flowing and we have a surprising exit poll and it is just an exit

poll. I have Kevin McKenna, I wish there had been a camera on the cafe

when the exit poll was announced, there was a lot of surprise. What is

your reaction? We woke up and realised that the, that a long night

would get more interesting. We are actually hearing more astounding

indications of what might be happening in Scotland with massive

SNP majorities and one could go to Labour F that does indicate a Labour

surge in Scotland rather than a Conservative surge, you wonder if it

is a case of what might have been in Jeremy Corbyn's camp, if he does

stop Theresa May getting an over all majority, he might be thinking to

himself, if the Labour in Scotland had got its act together what could

have happened nationally? That is interesting. I'm joined by a former

advisor to Scottish Labour. What do you think of that points?

Firstly, oppositions don't win elections, governments lose them.

Theresa May has had a terrible night. Equally, Nicola Sturgeon and

the SNP have had a fairly terrible night. If exit polls are to be

believed, they will lose a lot of seats. Iran opera and pretty

unfocused campaign. I hope the exit polls are about right, but it is a

long way to go now. Where do Scottish Labour go from here? Kezia

Dugdale had a lot to do when she took over. Recovery has to go

through this point. We have to be here at some point in order to get

to the recovery we need of getting about half of the people who went

over to the SNP to come back to Labour. Are things Scottish Labour

will be encouraged and optimistic. As the results come in, we will see

how optimistically ought to be. Just predictions at the moment. You are

one of those gasping. I wish we had cotula on camera. I think if there

is a labour bounce, it is very much about Jeremy Corbyn. I spoke to a

lot of SNP activists this week who said on the actual doorsteps week

they were hearing from a lot of people that people wanted to see a

way back from Labour. They were not sure, still undecided. In some ways,

you can see that maybe SNP supporters on the left wing of the

party may be very tempted by what Jeremy Corbyn had to offer and by

the overall thought of a Jeremy Corbyn moment, if you like. Our

guests earlier literally decided to go radical at the last moment and

vote for Jeremy Corbyn. Is the young vote playing into that? I think the

young vote in England and Wales has a lot to do with this. Jeremy

Corbyn's manifesto had a lot to offer young people. If they were

brought out to vote, maybe this will have made a huge difference. Tuition

fees, anti-austerity, very interesting to see how England and

Wills have voted in this as well. For a long time, I think we have

felt that has been addressed and maybe there will be more thought

throughout the United Kingdom and it will be very interesting to see how

this changes things. Kevin has coordinated his tie with my suit.

Lots more to come. Someone who has been up and down the highways and

byways of Scotland is neck. He has arrived in the election cafe. I

think a more interesting night than any of us thought. I think there is

a feeling with most of the parties at the moment that they are treating

the exit poll with a dose of scepticism. The SNP are not quite at

the point where they are realistically entertaining they

could lose 22 seats. The Tories think the early tallies around the

country are looking pretty good for them. We have been optimistic across

the country. Confident, not quite. That is starting to change in some

key areas. David Mundell is predicting they could win all three

seats in the South of Scotland. One of them is his. My sources tell me

it is looking good for the party in Perth. That is a fascinating seat.

The SNP have held it since 1997. Pete Wishart was the MP. He is a

high-profile member of that old SNP group at Westminster. Taking that

would be a big result. Labour at the moment are playing down the idea

they can make massive gains in Scotland. They think the majorities

in some places are just too big. East Lothian, optimistic. Better

than expected in Rutherglen and Hamilton West. Lib Dems are quiet

for now but some people in North East Fife are suggesting it is a

close race there between the Lib Dems and the SNP. I will get you

more caffeine if you keep digging. Deal? An interesting night. If you

want to join in the conversation, let us know what you think or ask

any of our cafe customers what they think. I didn't get the message

about colour coordination, Alastair Walker Matt. Let's cross to Jackie

Bird for the headlines. The first results are in. Newcastle

won the race against Sunderland to be the first seat to declare. Called

for a Labour with a 2% swing. Sunderland declared a Labour hold

but with a small swing to the Conservatives. We have a bit of a

wait for the first Scottish seats. Let's look at how the party's share

of the vote in Scotland has changed over the last 20 years. Cast your

mind back to 1997, New Labour sweeps to power. This man enters Number Ten

and cool Britannia is born. Labour are on 45% in Scotland. SNP with 22.

Conservatives slightly below but with no MPs north of the border.

2001, foot and mouth which delays the election by a month. Labour

Sierra goes down slightly. Tony Blair remains a Number Ten. William

Hague resigns. The SNP are down slightly, but look at the Liberal

Democrats. Their sheer increases. 2005, the Iraq war takes its toll on

Tony Blair at the ballot box. An historic third term, but the

majority slashed. The Liberal Democrats are on the rise, taking 62

seats across the UK. Their best showing since the 1920s in Scotland.

We saw their share increased from 16.5% up to 22.5%. 2010, Gordon

Brown loses the UK election but Labour finds success in Scotland

where it increases its share of the vote. The Tories and Lib Dems go

into form a coalition government. Then the game changer. The

independence referendum in 2014 and the SNP record an astonishing

victory the following year. The other three parties get one solitary

MP each. The question is whether the SNP can repeat their remarkable

performance. Is not, who will gain at their expense? Looking at

Twitter, Armando Ianucci is calling for a government of national unity

to deal with Brexit. The son of Sir Malcolm Rifkind is that the

projected SNP losses are wrong. Finally David Torrance reminding us

that there were doubtful reactions in 2010 and 2015 which both proved

to be right. Let's bring in our political panel

once again and pick up on the campaign that has just been fought.

We haven't spoken about that yet. Obviously in calling the election,

Theresa May said it would be the Brexit election but we haven't

learned a thing about she would do to deliver Brexit for the UK. I

think I have been two different campaigns. Size of the border,

focused on Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn. Brexit is featured, but it

is about the record of the UK Government and immigration. Security

and terrorism. The campaign in Scotland has been entirely

different. Much more focused on personalities of Nicola Sturgeon,

Ruth Davidson, Kezia Dugdale and Willie Rennie and issues have been

different. The issues have been, should we have a second independence

referendum? And the SNP are defending a record of ten years. Do

you accept that Theresa May has been far less than the strong and stable

leader that she started out this campaign saying she would be?

Theresa May is not a natural media performer in the way that some

unlike Ruth Davidson is. Let's not start writing political obituaries

until we get results and. And exit poll is an exit poll. From the first

two results, it looks like it might be a bit. If you set out to have an

election in order to increase your majority and feel to do that, surely

you can't hang around? There are lots of hypotheticals they are. If

she doesn't make progress, does she have to She will still be Prime

Minister. Assuming we come out as the largest party, there is a job to

be done to form a government every don't have a majority. But there is

a long way to go. Do have confidence in Theresa May in

no circumstances? Yes. You're not a natural supporter of Jeremy Corbyn,

but have you been surprised at how well he has done? I think he has had

a very spirited and strong campaign if the exit polls are to be

believed. Trying to make sense of that, it is because the policies

offered were properly supported by the population, contrary to some of

their critics. Of popular document with popular policies. I did not

support Jeremy Corbyn from leadership. But he brought a degree

of authenticity to his campaigning. He genuinely believes the manifesto

on which he stood. I think that helps explain the response he

received. People are tired of inauthenticity that Theresa May

manifested in interview after interview. She would give sound

bites about being strong and stable and everything else. With Jeremy

Corbyn, what you see is what you get. He has been arguing for these

politics for many years. Comfortable in his skin. That authenticity

carries. If we see the kind of numbers the exit poll suggests, I

think there are some powerful lessons. Or the last ten years, the

SNP have had the momentum. One of the reasons was because they were

very good at Freeman elections. In 2015, it was stronger for Scotland.

One of the things that is intriguing about this campaign is even the SNP

couldn't decide what it was about. Was it about independence? Was it

about Brexit? A second independence referendum? Defending the record in

government? If the party cannot decide what the election is about,

you should not be surprised that supporters can't decide. Playback

from your point of view, if there was any chance of Jeremy Corbyn been

Prime Minister, would you be happy for that to happen? Would you

support him in that office? I want to see a Labour government.

It is why I've been knocking on doors. I'm not sure I could sum up

in a sentence what the SNP's message in this campaign has been. Has it

been difficult to try and frame that message? I don't think so. I think

we were very clear on what our message was. The Prime Minister

called a snap election in order to have a stronger hand in Europe. She

has failed in that. One of the big questions to come out of this UK

election is exactly how is the UK going to negotiate anything very

much in Europe? Sum it up in a sentence. What was your core pitch?

In terms of Brexit, our argument was and always has been that Scotland's

position should be taken account of in UK negotiations and Scotland

should have a place at the negotiating table. That has been

consistently sporran. The UK Government has actually refused to

even discuss it. And what we have said is that we want to be part of

the single market, we want to have better controls over immigration and

Scotland. I understand your position. It's not very snappy. I

think it was snappy. The problem was we had to fight part of that

election in response to an argument about a second independence

referendum which was not actually an argument that we set out in the

first place. You demanded it two months before because you weren't

getting your way over Brexit! No, no. Nicola Sturgeon was ignored.

Theresa May came to Scotland and said you will be part of all this.

None of that happened. She didn't even read the very clear exposition

the Scottish Government and the parliament voted for 2 cents to

Theresa May about our position in Europe. The First Minister said, if

you are not going to listen to us, the deal you negotiate will be a

hard Brexit and the people of Scotland have the right to choose in

no circumstances what they want to do. That was what we said. Thank

you. Nickel Stephen, we will come to you next time. Let's cross to the

constituency that Amber Rudd is defending. What are you hearing?

If the election was judged on smiles, then the Labour Party will

have been successful here. They're ecstatic and the looks on the the

faces of Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats are looking very

stressed and worried. Labour say they have had a fantastic campaign

and a snap election was called, an election they were not prepared for,

but they have been able to mobilise 2,000 volunteers and canvassed more

homes than they have done before. They put that down to Jeremy Corbyn.

They say the vote is up for them. But they're unable to predict if it

is enough. The Conservatives say they have had a positive campaign.

They say that Amber Rudd has a strong vote in the county areas. It

is more the town areas that tend to swing to Labour. The Liberal

Democrats say their vote has been squeezed to Labour and they're

worried about even losing that are deposit. Thank you. We have got two

results so far, both Labour holds in the north-east of England and more

results to come. But let's go live to Kirkwall, where the count is well

under way for the Orkney Shetland constituency and in fact we will go

to Hugh Williams there in a moment. That is where the former Scottish

Secretary Alistair Carmichael is defending the constituency. And

let's bring in Nichol Stephen, what are you hearing about that and other

seats where you hope to make progress? If the opinion poll, sorry

accurate, then we should win Orkney accurate, then we should win Orkney

Shetland. We did well in Orkney Shetland in the Scottish Parliament

elections and I would find it difficult to believe there could be

a problem there. What is more fascinating, is which of seats we

have held before, whether we can win some m or all of those back. I would

predict that we are going to do well tonight. It will be good news in

Scotland. Better news for the Liberal Democrat in Scotland than

the rest of the UK. But it is still too early to say. I should say that

on the business of working with other parties, which actually is

something that well you know you have shared power in what was then

the Scottish Executive and now the Scottish Government and the party

has shared power at Westminster the Conservatives, but tonight the

Liberal Democrats are tweeting to say no coalitions no, deals that,

position aparchltly -- apparently is firm. I was looking back at those

heady days when the hibds were in second place -- Liberal Democrats

were in second place in Scotland in election after election. It was

remarkable. Then the big change was the coalition with the Conservatives

and I think the experience you might recall, the coalitions in Scotland

with the Labour Party our performance from election to

election remained strong in the coalition years. So we didn't have

the same reversal. But there was a big reversal for the party in 2015

and what happened as was clearly shown in Scotland as well. So we

have got to move back from that and move up. We started that process in

the Scottish Parliament elections, winning back seats, I think we will

win back more tonight. We will see how yo do. I'm not sure Renfrewshire

east is one constituency where you're in contention. That is being

defended by the SNP. That is unlikely. And what a picture. Is

that really Alex Salmond? Is that how we can expect him to appear. His

future career! On our screens later. Wow. That is the count in Aberdeen.

I was talking about refer Frewshire East where the SNP are defending a

strong challenge from the Conservatives, who took the

equivalent seat in the Holyrood election and a prominent figure

standing for the Labour Party in blare McDougall, who ran the Better

Together campaign. Let's get the details and go live to Suzanne Allan

in Clarkston. How are things happening. Welcome to the count for

Renfrewshire East, probably Scotland's only three-way marginal

between Labour, the SNP and the Tories. The incumbent is Kirsten

Oswald who won the seat two years ago from Jim Murphy, leader of the

Labour Party in Scotland, now he had held the seat since 1996. So he had

it for 18 years. He won it in that Labour landslide of Tony Blair's

Government in 1997. But the Tories have a good track record here. They

held the seat previously. Not as Renfrewshire East, but as Eastwood

so, they're feeling confident. Now, there are other factors at play

here. As you mentioned, Jackson Carlaw won the seat in 2016 and

blare McDougall, who won the Better Together campaign against

independence is the candidate for the Labour Party. Now, other things

to point out, the Scottish council elections last month, the

Conservatives were the largest party. But they don't form the

administration. It is a Labour/SNP coalition. This area was staunchly,

63%, against independence. 74% Remain in the recent referendum.

Now, can it will you from speaking to people, they say the prounion

parties have been leafletting like mad, especially the Conservatives,

they say they are up there every second day, a lot of canvassers,

Labour probably coming in second and a bit less from the SNP. But with

such a strong prounion vote, that bodes well for the SNP, because that

could split the vote. We spoke to all three parties earlier, none

would be drawn, it was a bit too early for them to say. But the most

confident did seem to be the SNP. Now, we can cross to Haddington and

Pauline McLean. We are not going do that just yet. We are seeing

pictures from Glenrothes and the counts in Fife. And a third

declaration from Sunderland Central. Labour's Julie Elliot holding

Sunderland Central. Ukip seems to be the main loser. The

Liberal Democrats up one. The swing in in Sunderland central is from

Labour to the Conservatives of 2.3%. That is consistent with the first

result, Brian Taylor. Two things to draw attention to, first, the Tory

result, the Tory vote, is better than the exit poll would suggest.

Labour is winning the seat, as they won in Newcastle, but the Tory vote

is holding up better than the exit poll would indicate. That is a

reversal. The Ukip votes, Sunderland famously set the trend for Brexit

for Britain voting as a whole to leave the EU and changed the nature

of British politics, Ukip are not the beneficiaries, perhaps voters

are saying, job done, or perhaps they're saying Ukip is in the past.

But even in Sunderland where it was a big Leave vote and they might vote

Ukip to hold the negotiator's feet to the fire. In central Central it

is 14.3 off and down in Houghton down. Neil Hamilton who leads Ukip

in the Welsh Assembly he has rather understatingly the party's vote is

being squeezed. That is how he is putting it. It is a pretty big

squeeze so far. I promised news from the nielss and Hugh -- Northern

Isles and hue Williams is there. What you tell us. If you want to

understand this constituency perhaps we shouldn't be in the magnificent

facilities at the school, but at the Haar pour sfrooet, where -- harbour

Street where work started on a new sea wall and flood defence to

prevent Kirkwall from being inundated by storms. If you're a

Liberal Democrat supporters in the Orkney Shetland constituency, you

know only too well what that feels like. Two years ago, you were

watching the SNP vote creep higher and higher and higher and higher and

threatening to overwhelm Alistair Carmichael's majority. He hung on,

but only just by 817 votes. Considerably down by 9,000 votes on

the majority that he had won in 2010. So has that SNP surge

subsided? Perhaps as the exit poll is suggesting it is a bit. That is

an issue we will watch in seats around the country. There are

factors that make this count interesting, not least the court

case from 2015 about Alistair Carmichael's involvement in what

became known as French Gate. He leaked a memo that purported to

reveal the contents of a conversation between Nicola Sturgeon

after the French embarrass door. A group of constituents argued if

voters had known of his part in the authorising of the leaking of that

memo, he might not have won. So they called for result to be annulled.

They went to a special election court and judges there ruled clearly

that Mr Carmichael had lied. But they said, it had been a political

lie, not a false statement about his character or conduct. And that was

the strict test in law. So if you're an Alistair Carmichael fan, you say

your man won. If you're an opponent, you may say he won the court case,

but he wasn't vindicated. Alistair Carmichael will hope what happened

after that in the Holyrood vote where Tavish Scott and Liam McArthur

increased their vote was proof that the Liberal Democrat brand wasn't

damaged in this constituency. But Mr Carmichael's main rival for the

vote, for the position as MP for Orkney Shetland, is Miriam Brett

from the SNP. He is a Jung high-flyer in the party and she is

from Shetland and she plays the fiddle. Will all of that be enough

to guarantee her even more votes than the late Dena Ski got? And

there have been voters even member of other parties who have been

willing to lend the Liberal Democrats their support. Holding

tight to nurse for fear of finding something worse as the great

Hillaire Belloc put it. But there are signs that Conservatives might

be willing to vote Conservative and perhaps that is the knock on effect

of Ruth Davidson's stance that she and the Conservatives are the

guarantors of the union. This was one of the most no voting seats in

Scotland in the independence referendum and one of most Remain

voting seats in the Brexit vote. Hugh Williams live from Kirkwall.

And now to the election cafe. Lots to talk about. This election seemed

to start off about constitutional politics. Theresa May's desire to

shore up support for Brexit. How did it pan out over the campaign. Was it

about Brexit or independence? We have Jenny Davidson. What is your

thoughts? I think in Scotland the constitutional issues have been

bigger than in the UK. We saw domestic issues taking over in the

UK like the dementia tax and free school meals and the pensions and

winter fuel payments. These became the big issues. In Scotland although

the SNP's record has been brought up, the issues of of a second

independence referendum had fuelled a lot of if... If the poll is

correct and the SNP lose 22 seats, a lot of that I think has been to do

with people just being fed up with elections and referendums and not

ready to vote on that again. David Torrance, you have had a smile on

your face and even chuckling already. What about, is it Brexit or

indyref2 or another? There was a lot of absence of chat about Brexit,

that was the premise of the election being called. There was little

discussion of that. Of course, remember the whole point of this was

to boost the Prime Minister's authority, strengthen her hand going

into Brexit negotiations. If she ends up with a slight majority, her

authority is shot. Perhaps she will be saved by the sheer turmoil of

having a Tory leadership election before the negotiations start. But

she emerges weakened in Scotland and as has been said indyref2 was be big

dynamic. Most people found that in seats like Moray, where you would

expect Brexit to be a factor that again that was absent.

Was a too dominant in Scotland? There was a strong reaction against

that. -- was indyref2 dominant in Scotland? If these results are

correct and the exit poll is right, I think it is more to do with what

happened in the UK and why. Particularly with the Labour

manifesto which captured the imagination of many Scots who in the

past had been lending votes to the SNP who might have been Labour

voters in the past. Caused a lot of them to rethink their allegiance and

wondered whether it made sense to vote SNP from Westminster when the

SNP hasn't got a chance of becoming a government. I not vote for Labour

if they are in with a shout? That is only of that exit poll is correct.

We saw on social media a lot of people worked out and urging young

people to go and vote. That may well be what his fondness at the last

moment. It is not just us who have been caught short, the political

parties themselves didn't detect this was happening. If the SNP has

lost 22 seats, that'll be a very significant blow to Nicola Sturgeon.

The irony is she could end up having the balance of power in Westminster

at the same time. How did this play out in Scotland? I think it is true.

Talking to voters, it was clear that even now Brexit was an issue,

Scotland voted to remain, that was a weak remain vote and we can now see

that. The remain vote was nowhere near as strong across the United

Kingdom as he thought. 22% were solid remain. I would say the same

in Scotland. If you look back to this time last year, we were talking

about what this meant for Scottish independence. Some of us sitting

around this table were predicting a shift amongst middle class voters

who voted to remain switching to the SNP. We have almost seen the

opposite now. Almost certainly the SNP losing support in heartland

areas like Moray where there was a strong remain vote. They have lost

support amongst what would have been tend to voters. We've seen that

before hand. Constitutional politics have played out in strange and

unusual ways. Lots to talk about your. All about words and pictures.

What have you got for us? For most of the night I have been thinking

about Willie Rennie. Win or lose, he has probably had the most fun during

the campaign. I had him to chew on for a little bit. Then I thought

about risk because it looks like she might get a couple more seats. The

Tories might lose a bit of a majority downsize, but I think we

will never hear the end of it in First Minister's Questions. I was

thinking about Kezia Dugdale from Scottish Labour and how she might

take some of the credit. That's just my opinion. Join in the conversation

using our hash tag. We have another result to bring you from the

north-east of England. Newcastle East. Labour has held with Nick

Brown, very prominent figure in the Labour Party, with a significant

majority. The Conservatives are second.

Compared to two years ago, Labour are up 18%.

There is a swing from conservatives to Labour. The Conservatives have

held Swindon north. That's the swing from conservatives

to Labour in Swindon north. Let's cross live to Aberdeen and the

reporter. A little update. Gordon, Alex Salmond's constituency. It

might be getting interesting. The Conservatives are happy with what

they've seen from the early ballot boxes. So are the Lib Dems. That

could mean two things. The Conservatives could be doing really,

really well in Gordon. It could also mean that, as was predicted, strong

Lib Dem and Tory votes could split the vote and let Alex Salmond

through the middle. That's all we know at the moment. The

Conservatives are quite confident, as they are with Aberdeenshire west.

Also apparently quite confident about Aberdeenshire south. Let's

cross to Paisley and Fiona Walker. Things are going to night, the

atmosphere is changing. To begin with, everybody was talking about

Mhairi Black, the youngest MP retaining her seat. The exit poll

came in, in Paisley and Renfrewshire South, the exit poll suggested that

Labour would take it from the SNP. Very close indeed. That means that

we are watching these piles very closely. Behind me, Alison Dowling

for Labour and Mhairi Black for the SNP, those piles are going up neck

and neck. The observers around the room are watching closely and we

will be watching them closely for you as well. Thank you for the

update. I should say that David Mundell, the Conservative Scottish

Secretary, is defending his seat says he is optimistic. Optimistic

that a historic note is on the cards. He might be focusing

particularly on the south of Scotland. He doesn't tell us what he

thinks is going on in the rest of the country. We will continue to go

wrong the country and pick up all developments that we have. Shortly,

we will cross to Haddington for news of the East Lothian count. Let's

bring in the panel once again. Douglas Alexander, on Haddington

being the V Slovene, prior to the exit poll, that was really the one

seat that Labour was targeting and helping to pick up in Scotland. Has

that changed? Certainly, the evidence suggests that the work

we've done in others it across the country could deliver the seats

rather than simply cut majorities. If the exit poll proves to be

accurate, we will have exceeded, not just our own expectations, the

expectations of all commentators looking at the election. A proof

work with the other on the panel. What's the extent of Tory ambition

north of the border? There is no limit. We started... Alex Salmond's

seat? It's in play. It's looking close in Angus. These are seats that

the SNP have held with thumping majorities. A majority in prison

just shy of 10,000. If we were to potentially take Alex Salmond's

seat, the fact that spin discussed, shows how well the Conservatives

have done. -- a majority in Perth just shy 10,000. All sorts

of transport is being used to make sure that the votes are counted.

Let's get more from the East Lothian count, Labour will bring to win back

the seat and SNP defending. Pauline McLean. What are you hearing? As you

know, East Lothian has been seen as a microcosm of Scotland. Some in

different parts of it, a nuclear power station, a university, mining,

farming, fishing. You can imagine the range of issues and opinions.

SNP's George Kerrigan took the seat two years ago, it was until then a

Labour seat dating back until it was created three decades before. They

really believe that they have a chance, Labour, Kezia Dugdale has