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The campaign is over, the polls are about to close. Time then to find | :00:09. | :00:17. | |
out just how many surprises Theresa May's surprise election has in | :00:18. | :00:18. | |
store. Hello and welcome to BBC Scotland's | :00:19. | :01:12. | |
general election results coverage, live from our headquarters at | :01:13. | :01:18. | |
Pacific key in Glasgow. Of course, we will cover all the big moments | :01:19. | :01:22. | |
from around the country. Will Theresa May's gamble to call a snap | :01:23. | :01:27. | |
election pay off, as she looks to strengthen her grip on power? And | :01:28. | :01:31. | |
Jeremy Corbyn overtake in the race for Number Ten? Will Nicola Sturgeon | :01:32. | :01:35. | |
repeat her party's remarkable results from two years ago? And can | :01:36. | :01:41. | |
Tim Farron revive the fortunes of his Liberal Democrats? Up all night | :01:42. | :01:47. | |
to help answer those questions are our political editor. Let's keep it | :01:48. | :01:52. | |
simple. If you want to know who is winning the race for Number Ten, | :01:53. | :01:54. | |
stay right here with us. If you want to know who's running in Scotland, | :01:55. | :01:58. | |
stay with us. If you want to know what the results mean for Brexit and | :01:59. | :02:03. | |
a second independence referendum, stay with us. Any minute now, we | :02:04. | :02:12. | |
will have the exit poll. Helping us with graphics is David Henderson. We | :02:13. | :02:17. | |
will be painting a picture with those results as they come in. This | :02:18. | :02:26. | |
has been the UK's electoral map. Will the balance of power shift | :02:27. | :02:31. | |
dramatically? Nothing could be certain. After a tumultuous few | :02:32. | :02:37. | |
decades in politics. Stay with us to discover who will be the next Prime | :02:38. | :02:41. | |
Minister holding the keys to Number Ten. With all the election headlines | :02:42. | :02:47. | |
from Scotland across the UK, Jackie Bird. Look at the engine room of our | :02:48. | :02:54. | |
coverage. The results come from here. We have a hotline to every | :02:55. | :02:59. | |
count in Scotland. Here are some of the 700 counting staff at the | :03:00. | :03:06. | |
Emirates arena. Seven Glasgow constituencies. Pictures from | :03:07. | :03:10. | |
Dumfries where David Mundell will learn his fate. We will bring you | :03:11. | :03:14. | |
the game changing moments and the best pictures. We will also follow | :03:15. | :03:18. | |
the key players and commentators on social media. And they have all the | :03:19. | :03:24. | |
gossip covered in our election cafe with Fiona. We are giving you an | :03:25. | :03:28. | |
alternative to the politicians. We are brought together journalists | :03:29. | :03:34. | |
from across the political spectrum. Spin doctors, bloggers and our own | :03:35. | :03:40. | |
cartoonist. Follow us on social media. We have experts and | :03:41. | :03:50. | |
politicians here. As you can see, Big Ben is fast approaching 10pm. So | :03:51. | :03:55. | |
it won't be long before we find out who you have decided to send to | :03:56. | :04:01. | |
Westminster. And of course who is going to be our next Prime Minister. | :04:02. | :04:14. | |
Big Ben CHIMES. It is 10pm. The exit poll suggests the Conservatives will | :04:15. | :04:21. | |
be the largest party after the 2017 general election. If it is correct, | :04:22. | :04:26. | |
Theresa May will be short of an overall majority. Not the result she | :04:27. | :04:30. | |
hoped for when she called this snap election. Let's get more details | :04:31. | :04:36. | |
with Brian. Thank you. As a result of the poll, the prediction is the | :04:37. | :04:42. | |
Conservatives will be on 314 seats, that is down 17. The same poll | :04:43. | :04:49. | |
predicts labour around 266, up 34 seats. The SNP would have 34 seats, | :04:50. | :04:57. | |
down 22. The Lib Dems on 14, that is up six. And 22 others, including | :04:58. | :05:02. | |
three Plaid Cymru and one green. If these figures are correct, if, | :05:03. | :05:10. | |
Theresa May would be 12 short of an overall majority. A worse position | :05:11. | :05:13. | |
than she started the election with. Some caveats. It is a sample poll, | :05:14. | :05:24. | |
30,450 people sampled. 144 polling stations, ten across Scotland. Real | :05:25. | :05:28. | |
voters and the exit poll tells us what they actually said. We were | :05:29. | :05:32. | |
updated with the details as they come in. Beer in mind, if these | :05:33. | :05:37. | |
results are correct, Theresa May will not have the mandate she hoped | :05:38. | :05:41. | |
for. If these results are correct, she will not be able to argue that | :05:42. | :05:47. | |
she has given herself greater strength for the negotiations with | :05:48. | :05:51. | |
the European Union. If these results are correct, Theresa May is going to | :05:52. | :05:55. | |
face some pretty big questions from her own party. If they are correct. | :05:56. | :06:02. | |
And astonishing exit poll. That cross to David Henderson in a moment | :06:03. | :06:05. | |
to see what the House of Commons would look like if that Paul turned | :06:06. | :06:09. | |
out to be correct, but first some immediate reaction from the | :06:10. | :06:13. | |
politicians on our panel. I will start with the introductions. Jeanne | :06:14. | :06:24. | |
Freeman from the SNP. Steve McColl from the Scottish Liberal Democrats. | :06:25. | :06:28. | |
Murdo Fraser, if this is how the election turns out, then will it | :06:29. | :06:33. | |
have been worth the There are a lot of ifs and buts in an election poll. | :06:34. | :06:41. | |
In 2015, there was a suggestion would be hung parliament. We will | :06:42. | :06:50. | |
need to wait and see. In Scotland, it shows the SNP on 34 seats. That | :06:51. | :06:56. | |
would be an astonishing decline for the SNP who went into this election | :06:57. | :07:02. | |
holding 56 out of 59 seats. To end up with 34 seats would really be a | :07:03. | :07:06. | |
dramatic reverse for Nicola Sturgeon. I would agree with all the | :07:07. | :07:14. | |
sandbox. If the exit poll is correct, it is an extraordinarily | :07:15. | :07:17. | |
bad result for the Conservatives because Theresa May not only called | :07:18. | :07:23. | |
this snap election with a majority, she called it with a significant | :07:24. | :07:26. | |
lead in the polls and that result does not suggest that she has | :07:27. | :07:31. | |
maintained that significant lead in the polls. From the SNP's point of | :07:32. | :07:36. | |
view, if we have a majority of seats in Scotland, then that will be a | :07:37. | :07:42. | |
good result for the SNP. In 2010, we only had six MPs. 2015 was an | :07:43. | :07:48. | |
extraordinary probably once in a century result. We would hope for | :07:49. | :07:53. | |
better than 34, I'm sure we will get better than 34, but it is not a | :07:54. | :08:00. | |
disaster for the SNP. It is a disaster for the Tories to make. Is | :08:01. | :08:05. | |
there any scenario looking at these numbers were Jeremy Corbyn might end | :08:06. | :08:11. | |
up as prim minister? Let's wait and see. If these results turn out to be | :08:12. | :08:16. | |
correct, that is important. What do we know? We know Theresa May had a | :08:17. | :08:20. | |
disastrous campaign. I can't remember party leader as bad an | :08:21. | :08:26. | |
election campaign as Theresa May. I would suggest Nicola Sturgeon | :08:27. | :08:30. | |
couldn't find her fitting either. I am perhaps less surprised than | :08:31. | :08:35. | |
others of the direction this Paul suggests. But we have learned in | :08:36. | :08:43. | |
recent years that exit polls might throw up unexpected results. In | :08:44. | :08:49. | |
Scotland, we were the prounion party. I am still hoping we can do | :08:50. | :08:55. | |
well in Scotland. It would be interesting to know how many of | :08:56. | :09:01. | |
those six seats that we are going up might be in Scotland. I hope several | :09:02. | :09:10. | |
of them. Overall, I think the message here is for parties in | :09:11. | :09:15. | |
government this looks like a bad result. For Theresa May in the | :09:16. | :09:18. | |
United Kingdom going down. And for Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP in | :09:19. | :09:23. | |
Scotland going down. To be honest, far more than I ever expected, if | :09:24. | :09:28. | |
this is true. We were astonished by the exit poll two years ago and by | :09:29. | :09:35. | |
and large it turned out to be largely accurate. To confirm, it is | :09:36. | :09:37. | |
suggesting the Conservatives will be the largest party but short of an | :09:38. | :09:43. | |
overall majority. David Tennant rock through what the House of Commons | :09:44. | :09:46. | |
would look like if the poll turns out to be accurate. Let's look at | :09:47. | :09:50. | |
the House of Commons chamber. This is how the exit poll to night would | :09:51. | :09:58. | |
look if it is converted into MPs. On the blue benches, the Conservatives | :09:59. | :10:01. | |
would sit as the largest party. The exit poll predicting the Tories | :10:02. | :10:11. | |
would 314 seats. The largest party at Westminster. But we are set to | :10:12. | :10:17. | |
lose 17 MPs in this election. On the site, the red of labour, set to | :10:18. | :10:23. | |
remain the largest opposition party with 266 MPs. Their support is up. | :10:24. | :10:30. | |
The expected to gain 34 MPs. We will be pleased to have made gains, but | :10:31. | :10:34. | |
there is no majority in parliament for them. The next biggest party, a | :10:35. | :10:43. | |
block of yellow for the SNP. 34 members of parliament. If that exit | :10:44. | :10:46. | |
poll is converted into reality, there is a disappointing night in | :10:47. | :10:49. | |
prospect for Nicola Sturgeon. Are party set to lose 22 of the seats | :10:50. | :10:54. | |
they have held in Scotland. Then that sliver of Orange, the Lib Dems | :10:55. | :11:00. | |
now have 14 MPs. A bit of a comeback, but no great breakthrough. | :11:01. | :11:05. | |
Six more than last time. And the others, the parties of Northern | :11:06. | :11:08. | |
Ireland, the Welsh nationalists and the Greens, 22 in total. Let's look | :11:09. | :11:15. | |
at the all important finishing line. You can see the Tories look to have | :11:16. | :11:21. | |
failed to win an overall majority. 326 is the magic number. Shot by 12 | :11:22. | :11:29. | |
members. Theresa May called the selection to tighten her grip for | :11:30. | :11:33. | |
Brexit and tonight it looks as though that strategy has failed. | :11:34. | :11:38. | |
Whilst she is still in charge of the largest party in the House of | :11:39. | :11:43. | |
Commons, she will be disappointed. More reaction from our election cafe | :11:44. | :11:48. | |
and see for the first time tonight, dealing to Fiona. We have had time | :11:49. | :11:54. | |
to chew over those results. It is a prediction. Let's see how that | :11:55. | :11:57. | |
marries what this lot have been writing about. Kevin Pringle, | :11:58. | :12:04. | |
formerly of the SNP, your first reaction? This would be a dramatic | :12:05. | :12:09. | |
setback for the Conservatives, particularly for Theresa May. She | :12:10. | :12:13. | |
only went to the country to get an overwhelming majority. On these | :12:14. | :12:17. | |
figures, no majority at all. It is hard to see how she could continue | :12:18. | :12:23. | |
in her position. Of course, this is only a prediction. We can be very | :12:24. | :12:27. | |
different when the results come in. For the SNP, that is a significantly | :12:28. | :12:37. | |
smaller number than last time. But that smaller group would have a | :12:38. | :12:40. | |
significant influence because if that is no overall majority then | :12:41. | :12:45. | |
that is a potential balancing power situation. So yes smaller figure but | :12:46. | :12:50. | |
possibly with more clout than we have seen in the last couple of | :12:51. | :12:55. | |
years. It might be that these figures are adjusted as the real | :12:56. | :13:01. | |
results come in. You have had your calculator out and are doing some | :13:02. | :13:05. | |
thoughts. There was a gasp of surprise in the cafe. What are your | :13:06. | :13:12. | |
thoughts? Theresa May wanted a coronation and on these figures she | :13:13. | :13:16. | |
is getting a kicking. It is extraordinary. If these are anywhere | :13:17. | :13:21. | |
near accurate, just a disastrous results were. We were imagining the | :13:22. | :13:28. | |
other European leaders sniggering at these results, in a manner of | :13:29. | :13:39. | |
schadenfreude. If it is true. If it is not true, we will be the ones who | :13:40. | :13:44. | |
are getting the schadenfreude, won't we? What was your first reaction? I | :13:45. | :13:51. | |
was astonished. With the usual caveats, it might not be accurate, | :13:52. | :13:56. | |
if it is remotely accurate, Theresa May's position as prim minister is | :13:57. | :14:01. | |
utterly untenable. She called an early election which she thought she | :14:02. | :14:07. | |
would have a landslide majority, on the Labour side, critics of Jeremy | :14:08. | :14:10. | |
Corbyn who insisted he is unelectable, it will be far more | :14:11. | :14:15. | |
difficult to remove him now. Personally I think he should still | :14:16. | :14:21. | |
be removed, but it is extraordinary. Back to your calculations. It is not | :14:22. | :14:26. | |
just about words. Tonight the election cafe is about pictures. | :14:27. | :14:30. | |
Neils Lawrence is with us. Yaz sketch does something. | :14:31. | :14:39. | |
It is hilarious she has called the election and lost her majority. She | :14:40. | :14:46. | |
did say strong and stable a lot of times. I don't think it has done the | :14:47. | :14:52. | |
trick. We are also all about social media and people have been reacting | :14:53. | :14:59. | |
on Twitter. One says, not again. Hung Parliament. SNP will win in | :15:00. | :15:07. | |
Scotland. And David, hung Parliament, I'll take that. Very | :15:08. | :15:15. | |
interesting. You can join in the conversation at BBC election cafe. | :15:16. | :15:24. | |
Let's bring in Brian Taylor. If it turns out this mean, what does it | :15:25. | :15:28. | |
mean for parties and the heads of parties. First the Conservatives | :15:29. | :15:32. | |
don't have a majority in the House of Commons. There wouldn't be enough | :15:33. | :15:39. | |
of Labour, the SNP and the Liberal Democrat to make an alliance. The | :15:40. | :15:44. | |
Conservatives could govern as a minority. But they entered the | :15:45. | :15:51. | |
election with the purpose of strengthening their mandate for | :15:52. | :15:55. | |
European negotiations, which I always thought was piffle, I don't | :15:56. | :16:00. | |
think the European nations will change their point of view. But it | :16:01. | :16:05. | |
was said to strengthen the Prime Minister's hand in getting it past | :16:06. | :16:08. | |
the House of Commons. The closing polls by the various companies | :16:09. | :16:14. | |
suggesting a lead for the Tories of about 10 points in some, but only | :16:15. | :16:23. | |
one in the one poll. Lord Ashcroft, the Conservative peer has done has a | :16:24. | :16:28. | |
poll and he has scenarios based on projected turn out. He said the | :16:29. | :16:38. | |
probable outcome is 363 seats for the Tories, or a majority of 76. | :16:39. | :16:43. | |
That is a different picture from the exit poll. But if the exit poll is | :16:44. | :16:51. | |
correct, I don't see how Theresa May can survive. Those pictures are from | :16:52. | :17:04. | |
Islington North, Jeremy Corbyn's constituency. How would you read the | :17:05. | :17:09. | |
exit poll. It almost certainly not be exactly like that. But they have | :17:10. | :17:14. | |
a pretty good track record with exit polls, it will probably be close. It | :17:15. | :17:17. | |
is at odds with some of the opinion polls we have had. But one, a number | :17:18. | :17:22. | |
of advantages that those doing the exit polls have not just it is | :17:23. | :17:27. | |
bigger numbers, it is people who have actually voted, but also the | :17:28. | :17:30. | |
pollsters have struggled with what to do with those who are less likely | :17:31. | :17:37. | |
to vote and having to wait for the data, you don't have that problem | :17:38. | :17:41. | |
with an exit poll, because they have already voted. It may not be exact, | :17:42. | :17:45. | |
but I would expect it to be close to that. Thank you both. Now let's get | :17:46. | :17:52. | |
around the country. There are 17 declarations happening in our three | :17:53. | :17:56. | |
biggest cities, the biggest in Glasgow. Let's cross there live and | :17:57. | :18:04. | |
Aileen Clarke is at the Emirates stadium. Hi, well as you can see the | :18:05. | :18:12. | |
sorting of the postal votes is well under way. And let me remind you of | :18:13. | :18:16. | |
the kind of evening we had two years ago. Around here Nicola Sturgeon | :18:17. | :18:25. | |
lined up what she called her Magnificent Seven, the SNP took | :18:26. | :18:29. | |
every single Westminster seat and there were some very glum Labour | :18:30. | :18:36. | |
faces. This time, six out of her Magnificent Seven ride again. | :18:37. | :18:44. | |
Natalie McGarry isn't standing after being accused of embezzlement. And | :18:45. | :18:49. | |
could this be where Labour starts a fight back to claw back what they | :18:50. | :18:56. | |
lost so bitterly here two years ago. If the SNP are going to lose that | :18:57. | :19:00. | |
many seats, is it possible they may lose one in Glasgow? They were | :19:01. | :19:03. | |
confident they would hold on to them. But we will have to wait and | :19:04. | :19:09. | |
see. Also appearing here we will have Patrick Harvie, something of a | :19:10. | :19:16. | |
lone Ranger, the only green candidate. We will have to wait | :19:17. | :19:24. | |
until about 3 o'clock. But it might well be worth staying up to wait on | :19:25. | :19:29. | |
the Glasgow results this time. We will have the good, the bad and | :19:30. | :19:34. | |
let's hope it doesn't get ugly and now let's head east to Edinburgh. | :19:35. | :19:40. | |
Thank you. The first thing to say that is exit poll has caused a stir | :19:41. | :19:44. | |
here in the counting room in Edinburgh. A lot of people on their | :19:45. | :19:49. | |
phones trying to work out what those numbers mean for their respective | :19:50. | :19:54. | |
parties, people in huddles down there on the floor and the | :19:55. | :20:01. | |
volunteers carry on with their job. The first declaration we expect | :20:02. | :20:10. | |
between 2 and 3. The last between 4 and 5. Fascinating to see what | :20:11. | :20:14. | |
happens Marley in light of -- particularly in light of that exit | :20:15. | :20:18. | |
poll. To focus on a couple. Edinburgh South is where Iain Murray | :20:19. | :20:23. | |
won for Labour in 2015 when at the end of the night he was the only | :20:24. | :20:27. | |
Labour MP left in Scotland. But he is pushing to win that seat. | :20:28. | :20:31. | |
Fascinating to see what challenge he has from the SNP and the | :20:32. | :20:34. | |
Conservatives in light of that exit poll. The other interesting seat | :20:35. | :20:40. | |
here in Edinburgh West, that was one by Michelle Thompson in 2015, but | :20:41. | :20:45. | |
she resigned the party whip for the SNP. That constituency will have a | :20:46. | :20:48. | |
new MP. That is where the Liberal Democrats are fighting hard. We will | :20:49. | :20:52. | |
find out at the end of the night five MPs to be elected here and a | :20:53. | :21:01. | |
fascinating night ahead here and in Aberdeen. It will be interesting to | :21:02. | :21:08. | |
see how that exit poll works out. This is a part of country where the | :21:09. | :21:14. | |
Conservatives expected to do well. Five seats up for grab. Five that | :21:15. | :21:21. | |
were held by the SNP in 2015. Early intelligence suggesting that | :21:22. | :21:24. | |
Aberdeen South is looking very tight between the Conservatives and the | :21:25. | :21:28. | |
SNP, who took the seat in 2015 from Labour. Aberdeenshire West and | :21:29. | :21:35. | |
Kincardine, I'm told the Conservatives will be disappointed | :21:36. | :21:39. | |
if they don't take that seat. It is a seat they took in the Scottish | :21:40. | :21:46. | |
Parliament elections. The SNP not denying the possible they will lose | :21:47. | :21:52. | |
that seat. And Gordon where Alex Salmond was elected and Banff and | :21:53. | :21:59. | |
Buchan where there is signs of a switch in the fishing communities | :22:00. | :22:03. | |
between the SNP and the Tories over Brexit. And I'm told that the turn | :22:04. | :22:11. | |
out is high there. Thank you. We are going to continue to go around the | :22:12. | :22:15. | |
country in just a moment. But let's just recap on the exit poll | :22:16. | :22:18. | |
headlines with Jackie Bird. The headline is the result of that exit | :22:19. | :22:24. | |
poll, which has predicted the Conservatives are the largest party, | :22:25. | :22:29. | |
but they have lost their majority. They're on course to lose 17 seats. | :22:30. | :22:37. | |
Let's show the figures. It puts the Conservatives on 314. That is down | :22:38. | :22:46. | |
by 17. Labour is on 266. Up by 34. The SNP down by 22 on 34 and the | :22:47. | :22:51. | |
Liberal Democrats are on 14 which would be up by 6. Others on 22. | :22:52. | :22:57. | |
Reaction coming in thick and fast. Speaking a few moments ago, the UK | :22:58. | :23:02. | |
Defence Secretary was cagey about predictions in general. Well, we | :23:03. | :23:07. | |
didn't, I never believed the original poll showing us 20 points | :23:08. | :23:13. | |
ahead. In an election you get a tightening between the parties, that | :23:14. | :23:16. | |
was happening. But I think it is very early to start on the basis of | :23:17. | :23:21. | |
what is a projection before we have had a single actual result. Let's | :23:22. | :23:27. | |
wait and see. For the SNP, if we have a majority of seats in | :23:28. | :23:30. | |
Scotland, then that will be a good result for the SNP. You know n 2010 | :23:31. | :23:39. | |
we only had six MPs. 2015 was an extraordinary, probably once in a | :23:40. | :23:43. | |
century result. So 34 we would hope for better and I'm sure we will get | :23:44. | :23:48. | |
better. But it is not a disaster for the SNP, but it is a disaster for | :23:49. | :23:52. | |
the Tories tonight. There is a race to be the first constituency to | :23:53. | :23:57. | |
declare first and they are literally racing in Sunderland. There they | :23:58. | :24:03. | |
are. Let's look at the reaction on Twitter to that exit poll. The BBC's | :24:04. | :24:14. | |
Andrew Neil said it would be a disastrous result for the | :24:15. | :24:16. | |
Conservatives. Glenn. Every election night has its | :24:17. | :24:36. | |
wow moment. Brian Taylor looks ahead to what those might be tonight. | :24:37. | :24:43. | |
Elections, manifesto launches, claim and counter claim, the battle bus. | :24:44. | :24:50. | |
Political spin. Media fact-checking. But in the final analysis a general | :24:51. | :24:54. | |
election rests on one thing - that is winning in individual | :24:55. | :24:57. | |
constituencies. So let's look at some of the most interesting | :24:58. | :25:01. | |
contests in Scotland, bearing that the SNP start the night defending an | :25:02. | :25:06. | |
astonishing 56 out of 59 constituencies. The most marginal | :25:07. | :25:17. | |
seat is Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk. The Conservatives candidate | :25:18. | :25:23. | |
is so confident he has quit his Holyrood seat. So will he end up on | :25:24. | :25:30. | |
the green benches or are a red face? And other Tory hopes are Dumfries | :25:31. | :25:36. | |
and Galloway and Perth and North Perthshire. How about Labour? Their | :25:37. | :25:44. | |
biggie is to hold Iain Murray's seat in Edinburgh South. Labour hope to | :25:45. | :25:56. | |
take East Lothian. Iain Gray held on to the equivalent Scottish | :25:57. | :26:00. | |
Parliament seat. And there is Edinburgh east where the SNP | :26:01. | :26:06. | |
candidate resigned. The Liberal Democrats, how about East | :26:07. | :26:17. | |
Dunbartonshire. Other Liberal Democrat hopes are North East Fife, | :26:18. | :26:26. | |
Edinburgh West and Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross. A final | :26:27. | :26:37. | |
thought, can the Tories take Moray from Angus Robertson, the SNP's | :26:38. | :26:47. | |
Westminster leader. The SNP vote was squeezed in the Holyrood elections. | :26:48. | :26:52. | |
Can they go further? Privately Tories say that would be their | :26:53. | :26:59. | |
Portillo moment, remember the defeat for Michael Portillo that epitomised | :27:00. | :27:07. | |
the 1997 election. It coined a catch phrase, were you still up for | :27:08. | :27:14. | |
Portillo. The SNP say dream on. Hey, why don't you stay up with us and | :27:15. | :27:20. | |
see how it goes? More from Brian tonight. Some words from George | :27:21. | :27:26. | |
Osborne, the former Chancellor, he said if the exit poll is right, that | :27:27. | :27:33. | |
would be catastrophic for Theresa May and further criticism from Sir | :27:34. | :27:41. | |
Craig Oliver suggesting her gamble has failed. Now around the country | :27:42. | :27:47. | |
and look more at the prospects for the Conservatives in Scotland | :27:48. | :27:52. | |
tonight. We will cross to the most marginal seat with Cameron butt | :27:53. | :27:56. | |
until Kelso. First to Perth and Graham Stuart. Are the Tories in | :27:57. | :28:02. | |
confident mood there? Yes, this is one of their top target seat and | :28:03. | :28:08. | |
looks like being one of the most closely fought contests. Pete | :28:09. | :28:17. | |
Wishart has a majority of just under 10,000, but he admitted he is | :28:18. | :28:21. | |
running neck and neck with the Tories and that this contest is too | :28:22. | :28:27. | |
close to call N a curious phrase, he warns voters of the dangers of | :28:28. | :28:31. | |
waking up with a Tory MP on Friday morning. That Tory is the member of | :28:32. | :28:39. | |
Parliament Iain donical, ical -- Duncan. He will be looking for a new | :28:40. | :28:47. | |
job soon and if the bookies are to be believed, he has good chance of | :28:48. | :28:51. | |
winning. So what is going on here? The SNP have had Dom Nance here for | :28:52. | :28:59. | |
the -- dominance here for 20 years, but in the referendum, 60% of people | :29:00. | :29:05. | |
voted against Scottish independence, making the area more unionist than | :29:06. | :29:10. | |
average. But the first beneficiary of the polarisation of politics was | :29:11. | :29:14. | |
Pete Wishart himself, he more than doubled his majority last time to | :29:15. | :29:19. | |
just under 10,000, but recent election results have made grim | :29:20. | :29:28. | |
reading for the SNP. In the Scottish Parliament elections John Swinney | :29:29. | :29:36. | |
saw his majority slashed and if that trend continues and we saw the | :29:37. | :29:41. | |
Conservatives take control of Perth and Kinross council f that | :29:42. | :29:46. | |
continues, there is a chance Scotland's longest serving MP could | :29:47. | :29:49. | |
be out of a job. We are expecting a declaration at around half pavs 3. | :29:50. | :29:59. | |
It doesn't get any tighter than this. 320 last time around. Johan | :30:00. | :30:13. | |
Lamont for the Conservatives is standing for the fourth time. Well | :30:14. | :30:17. | |
this week, the Prime Minister and the First Minister were in the | :30:18. | :30:20. | |
Borders fighting for every vote. The big question for many is where is | :30:21. | :30:30. | |
the Michael Moore fought for the Liberal Democrats going to go this | :30:31. | :30:34. | |
time? This time they have a little-known candidate. Ian Davidson | :30:35. | :30:41. | |
is a local boy from Jabra. But Labour are a long way off the pace. | :30:42. | :30:51. | |
I have been Ruth Davidson a few times in the Borders. I spoke to | :30:52. | :30:58. | |
Calum Kerr at the SNP. He said at the beginning of the campaign he | :30:59. | :31:02. | |
felt like the second horse in this race. Now they are feeling very | :31:03. | :31:09. | |
positive. Not the only fight in town. We are counting the votes for | :31:10. | :31:19. | |
the Holyrood seat that Johan Lamont give up to stand for Westminster. | :31:20. | :31:25. | |
Thank you, back to you as the night unfolds. At the last general | :31:26. | :31:31. | |
election, Scotland returned just one Conservative MP, the Scottish | :31:32. | :31:33. | |
Secretary David Mundell. Is he confident of holding his seat and | :31:34. | :31:37. | |
perhaps helping the Tories paint the size of Scotland blue? Let's find | :31:38. | :31:42. | |
out in the company of Reeva Lord Of in Dumfries. | :31:43. | :31:57. | |
I don't think he is hearing is at the moment. We will come back to | :31:58. | :32:08. | |
him. The first base for the Conservatives is to hold onto | :32:09. | :32:16. | |
Dumfries and when two additional seats. Let's get more of an overview | :32:17. | :32:27. | |
of the election. We have lots of ways to show the results. Here is | :32:28. | :32:32. | |
our electoral map and it reveals who has been chosen to represent voters. | :32:33. | :32:40. | |
The colours sure who did best at the last election. Yellow across so much | :32:41. | :32:45. | |
of Scotland. Blew across so much of England. It shows with the Tories | :32:46. | :32:52. | |
are strongest. Red patches are the heartlands for a Labour. This | :32:53. | :32:55. | |
picture emerged from the 2015 election. But the exit poll tonight | :32:56. | :33:00. | |
shows the pattern is set to change. These constituencies are not all the | :33:01. | :33:05. | |
same size, but if he were, this is how they would look. This map shows | :33:06. | :33:12. | |
all 650 parliamentary seat across the UK as if they are identical in | :33:13. | :33:18. | |
shape and size. A different picture. Tonight, we are starting from zero. | :33:19. | :33:23. | |
The UK is a blank slate. And we will focus in on Scotland to see how the | :33:24. | :33:28. | |
parties are feeling here. Will the SNP's dominance continued? Will | :33:29. | :33:36. | |
rivals gain ground at their expense? We will fill it up through the night | :33:37. | :33:39. | |
as the result is poor in. The leaders of the political parties | :33:40. | :33:43. | |
have fought a long campaign as they fight for power. They will be really | :33:44. | :33:46. | |
know and all they can do is wait for the results. There is Tim Farron. | :33:47. | :33:55. | |
Nicola Sturgeon. Jeremy Corbyn. Theresa May. Will she get the | :33:56. | :34:01. | |
increased majority she is looking for? If the exit poll is to be | :34:02. | :34:07. | |
believed, she hasn't. Will she stay on as Prime Minister? In House of | :34:08. | :34:12. | |
Commons, we will show you how these results play out. We will crunch the | :34:13. | :34:17. | |
numbers to see if the Tories will remain dominant here. The number of | :34:18. | :34:24. | |
MPs from each party is almost certain to change. There is a | :34:25. | :34:28. | |
winning line that any party has to cross to win the majority of seats. | :34:29. | :34:33. | |
According to the exit poll, the Tories are just short. Bad news for | :34:34. | :34:39. | |
them as they bid to form a government. We have lots more tricks | :34:40. | :34:44. | |
up our sleeve. All becoming clearer as the night unfolds. Keep watching. | :34:45. | :34:50. | |
As we get results, the experts will crunch the numbers and continue to | :34:51. | :34:55. | |
update the forecast for how many seats each of the parties may have | :34:56. | :34:59. | |
and whether we will have a situation where one party is the largest but | :35:00. | :35:02. | |
short of an overall majority or whether one party will make it over | :35:03. | :35:07. | |
that winning line and be able to form a government on its own with | :35:08. | :35:15. | |
the votes that it needs to get the work done that it wants to in the | :35:16. | :35:20. | |
House of Commons. Let's cross to the cafe. This was the election that no | :35:21. | :35:23. | |
one really saw coming and I think that was the exit poll that not many | :35:24. | :35:30. | |
people saw coming. Gasps in the cafe. We spoke around the tables of | :35:31. | :35:35. | |
the issues people were voting on. On Twitter, you revealed you decided | :35:36. | :35:47. | |
very last minute to go for SNP and change to Labour. I believe in | :35:48. | :35:53. | |
Scottish independence. I have supported the SNP in the past. As | :35:54. | :35:57. | |
much as I was pretty sure I was going to vote SNP today, once I was | :35:58. | :36:01. | |
in the polling booth, I felt like taking a punt. Different things | :36:02. | :36:10. | |
informed voter behaviour. I know that I want and what I don't want. | :36:11. | :36:15. | |
Other things go on. Divisions in our culture, people who annoy us on | :36:16. | :36:20. | |
Twitter. When I started to put the cross on the box, I imagined it was | :36:21. | :36:26. | |
a very small hand going over the mouth of Pete Wishart. There is | :36:27. | :36:33. | |
something about the yes movement I support but has not been there. And | :36:34. | :36:41. | |
Jeremy Corbyn essentially calls my Bluff. He calls the bluff of the | :36:42. | :36:49. | |
Tories and also his own party. It is the same with the Nationalist | :36:50. | :36:53. | |
movement. What he proposes is something that is genuinely | :36:54. | :37:00. | |
left-wing. Something of genuine substance. I appreciate the | :37:01. | :37:04. | |
restrictions on the SNP. I think they are for medical political | :37:05. | :37:09. | |
force. If there is another independence referendum, I am behind | :37:10. | :37:16. | |
them. But this vote today, I decided to vote Labour. It is a prediction | :37:17. | :37:21. | |
and the SNP would still be the largest party in Scotland. You drew | :37:22. | :37:25. | |
breath when the exit poll results were announced? After the initial | :37:26. | :37:32. | |
gasp, it fits in with the anything can happen in politics which seems | :37:33. | :37:36. | |
to be prevailing across the world. Once the initial shock settles and | :37:37. | :37:46. | |
you hear the warnings of exit polls, you think, we have those SNP seats | :37:47. | :37:50. | |
gone? Is that the Tories, is it Labour? It will be fascinating to | :37:51. | :37:59. | |
see how the vote goes. What issues do you think people were voting on? | :38:00. | :38:04. | |
Darren says he voted for Jeremy Corbyn to do something radical. I | :38:05. | :38:13. | |
think Indy ref to play a factor. I think they have taken the chance to | :38:14. | :38:23. | |
have a say in health and education. I think there is a huge cross-border | :38:24. | :38:29. | |
divide. Size of the border, we heard a lot of discussion about the | :38:30. | :38:35. | |
dementia tax, capping care costs. Means testing cold-weather payments | :38:36. | :38:41. | |
which might not apply north of the border. When you see the Scottish | :38:42. | :38:46. | |
leader debates, you saw health and education coming into that, even | :38:47. | :38:51. | |
though Westminster MPs will not have a say on those issues. I agree with | :38:52. | :38:55. | |
Darren and Allison that there has been a huge movement for taking a | :38:56. | :38:59. | |
punt and doing something different. I will be curious to know what | :39:00. | :39:04. | |
proportion of the vote is the youthful. How much of this is young | :39:05. | :39:08. | |
people who have been mobilised for the first time because there's been | :39:09. | :39:11. | |
a lot of action on Twitter trying to get people out there. Maybe it has | :39:12. | :39:17. | |
worked. Lots more to unfold overnight. All the reaction from our | :39:18. | :39:23. | |
journalists, spin doctors and our cartoonists. If you want to join the | :39:24. | :39:30. | |
conversation, please do. Follow us on Twitter. In a moment, we will get | :39:31. | :39:33. | |
a sense of how that exit poll might play out in Scotland, but first we | :39:34. | :39:40. | |
will try again to speak to our reporter in Dumfries. We had a power | :39:41. | :39:48. | |
surge here, which cost our communications to fall off the air. | :39:49. | :39:53. | |
That is why I was not able to speak to you. I couldn't hear you. We are | :39:54. | :39:58. | |
wondering now whether there will be any other sort of surge in the South | :39:59. | :40:03. | |
of Scotland. Two constituencies are being counted in Dumfries. Dumfries | :40:04. | :40:09. | |
and Galloway is enormous. All the way from Stranraer in the West right | :40:10. | :40:16. | |
across to Dumfries. Then an equally large constituency which is | :40:17. | :40:21. | |
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale. It goes from ten miles | :40:22. | :40:25. | |
south of the Edinburgh city border all the way down to the border with | :40:26. | :40:32. | |
England at Gretna. It is the seat of David Mundell, the Scottish | :40:33. | :40:40. | |
Secretary. He is of course the only Scottish Tory MP from the last | :40:41. | :40:43. | |
Parliament. Will he be joined by any others? If the polls are to be | :40:44. | :40:49. | |
believed, we may well see a Tory MP in Dumfries and Galloway. The Tories | :40:50. | :40:54. | |
have pulled steadily over the last few years, about 16,000 votes in | :40:55. | :41:00. | |
2010 and 2015. Last time around the SNP took the Dumfries Galloway | :41:01. | :41:07. | |
seat by increasing their vote from something like 6000 up to 23,000. | :41:08. | :41:13. | |
There was a collapse of Russell Brown's vote for Labour. The SNP | :41:14. | :41:20. | |
pushed David Mundell very hard in the Dumfriesshire seats. He has a | :41:21. | :41:24. | |
majority of less than 800. The Greens stood in that seat last time | :41:25. | :41:29. | |
and got around about that number of votes. They are not standing this | :41:30. | :41:33. | |
time and predictions were that those votes might go to the SNP and they | :41:34. | :41:38. | |
can take the seat, it doesn't look so likely no. How ironic would it be | :41:39. | :41:45. | |
if, when the dust has settled tomorrow, if the Tory government in | :41:46. | :41:49. | |
Westminster was propped up by Tory MPs in Scotland after all of the | :41:50. | :41:58. | |
jibes throughout the 1980s and 90s of Labour MPs propping up the Labour | :41:59. | :42:03. | |
Party at Westminster? A fascinating account ahead of us. I don't think | :42:04. | :42:09. | |
we will get a result until 5am for either seat. Thank you. The | :42:10. | :42:13. | |
bookmakers amongst others are expressing surprise at the exit | :42:14. | :42:18. | |
poll. Ladbrokes have already changed their odds of artists having a new | :42:19. | :42:23. | |
Prime Minister within the course of 2017, the odds of Theresa May being | :42:24. | :42:29. | |
replaced, 4-5. Let's bring in Brian Taylor. Give us more of a sense of | :42:30. | :42:36. | |
how this exit poll would play out in Scotland. This is an exit poll by | :42:37. | :42:41. | |
Ipsos MORI for the free broadcasters, BBC, ITV and sky. SNP | :42:42. | :42:52. | |
on 34, down 22. At that level, if it is down 22, that is quite remarkable | :42:53. | :42:59. | |
drop I have to say, the state of the campaign, but at that level they | :43:00. | :43:04. | |
would be losing some of the key seats that would come into play, | :43:05. | :43:11. | |
like Murray, Angus, Perth and North Perth. You could even be talking | :43:12. | :43:15. | |
about losing Paisley and Renfrewshire South, Mhairi Black's | :43:16. | :43:20. | |
seat, to Labour. It is that level. 22 losses is not just the South of | :43:21. | :43:26. | |
Scotland which were expected, the North East Fife that was possible | :43:27. | :43:30. | |
and East Dunbartonshire which was talked about. You're bringing in | :43:31. | :43:34. | |
pretty big names as well. By stating those names, the very scope of those | :43:35. | :43:39. | |
defeats, perhaps it adds to the scepticism one might have with | :43:40. | :43:43. | |
regard to the fact the exit poll is just that, just a sample. We have | :43:44. | :43:49. | |
been talking a lot about this campaign in Scotland about the | :43:50. | :43:54. | |
possibility of the Conservatives winning back seats that we haven't | :43:55. | :43:58. | |
held for a very long time. But if the SNP were to lose 22 seats, it | :43:59. | :44:03. | |
sounds like all opposition parties might be in for a good night? | :44:04. | :44:08. | |
There may well be more caveats with respect to Scotland, there were | :44:09. | :44:18. | |
fewer counting stations used in the exit polls. But some of the seat by | :44:19. | :44:23. | |
seat analysis that the pollsters have identified seem to suggest that | :44:24. | :44:28. | |
most of gains for Labour are not in Scotland. But in England mainly, | :44:29. | :44:36. | |
perhaps in Wales also. But it may well be the case that Labour has a | :44:37. | :44:41. | |
good night over all, but not in Scotland. Look how fast they're | :44:42. | :44:45. | |
getting votes into the counting station in Sunderland. Sunderland is | :44:46. | :44:50. | |
always part of the country that works really hard to try and bring | :44:51. | :44:54. | |
us one of the first declarations. Let's bring in our political panel | :44:55. | :45:01. | |
again. I couldn't help noticing a smile on Douglas Alexander's face | :45:02. | :45:09. | |
when Brian mentioned Marie Black. Who defeated you two years ago. I | :45:10. | :45:14. | |
was knocking on the doors in the seat last night and I was out this | :45:15. | :45:18. | |
morning and I picked up two changes. First, I had a very strong memory of | :45:19. | :45:22. | |
people saying, I'm sorry, I'm not going to vote for you, but for | :45:23. | :45:27. | |
Nicola. One of the most remarkable changes just in the last couple of | :45:28. | :45:32. | |
years is that people are saying, I'm not voting for that woman. The | :45:33. | :45:36. | |
collapse in personal support for Nicola Sturgeon was striking to me | :45:37. | :45:41. | |
on the doorsteps in Paisley and there was a sense that people were | :45:42. | :45:45. | |
still making up their mind last night and I couldn't remember a past | :45:46. | :45:50. | |
election where literally on the eve of the poll people were shifting, | :45:51. | :45:56. | |
they were saying, I voted SNP and I'm voting Labour. Some say I'm | :45:57. | :46:02. | |
thinking about voting Labour, but I'm not sure. But the movement was | :46:03. | :46:07. | |
away from the SNP. In that sense I'm probably a little less surprised | :46:08. | :46:11. | |
than the panel, because if the results are this accurate, not only | :46:12. | :46:16. | |
has Theresa May lost kr credibility, but we are seeing Nicola Sturgeon | :46:17. | :46:20. | |
lose almost half her seats, it would be a significant shift from the | :46:21. | :46:25. | |
British nationalism that Theresa May was arguing for and the Scottish | :46:26. | :46:28. | |
nationalism that Nicola Sturgeon argued for. Have you picked up a | :46:29. | :46:34. | |
change in attitude towards Nicola Sturgeon as head of your party, as | :46:35. | :46:40. | |
First Minister, a shift in how people were approaching this | :46:41. | :46:47. | |
election? No, I haven't. I think for a party that's been in government in | :46:48. | :46:52. | |
Scotland for ten years, the level of support for the party and the | :46:53. | :46:56. | |
government and what we are doing there is extraordinarily strong and | :46:57. | :47:03. | |
remains strong. That singles out the government in Scotland from a lot of | :47:04. | :47:07. | |
the UK parties who have been in government for that length of time. | :47:08. | :47:13. | |
I want to say just one other, I think important caveat, because I'm | :47:14. | :47:17. | |
struggling to think where these 22 seats would go. And my point is | :47:18. | :47:23. | |
this, that as I understand it and Brian and Nicola will correct me if | :47:24. | :47:29. | |
I'm wrong, as I understand it, only ten polls stations were in that | :47:30. | :47:34. | |
sample from Scotland. That's correct. That is a bit of a caveat. | :47:35. | :47:41. | |
To be fair we have been caveating the poll. But if you're going | :47:42. | :47:45. | |
backwards in the election rather than forwards, which has been the | :47:46. | :47:50. | |
pattern for at least ten years, would it be fair of your opponents | :47:51. | :47:55. | |
to say that we have passed peak Nat and you no longer have momentum? No, | :47:56. | :48:02. | |
even if you accept the exit poll, 34 is still the majority of seats in | :48:03. | :48:06. | |
Scotland and I tell you what that also says, the unionist parties, in | :48:07. | :48:11. | |
particular the Conservatives, stood entirely on a platform of no to indy | :48:12. | :48:22. | |
ref two. Ignoring the scrutiny of the Tories and that will have | :48:23. | :48:26. | |
absolutely failed. In terms of Scotland, a win's a win, if the SNP | :48:27. | :48:31. | |
have more seats, would they be entitled to push for a second | :48:32. | :48:39. | |
referendum? Oh Glenn if I go into a casino with 56 pound and I come out | :48:40. | :48:45. | |
with 34, I ain't a winner. The SNP started with 56 seats, and 50% of | :48:46. | :48:51. | |
the vote. Even if they're nowhere near as down as the poll suggests, | :48:52. | :48:57. | |
if it drops half, it shows the people in Scotland are saying to the | :48:58. | :49:00. | |
SNP, we don't think much of your record in government and you have | :49:01. | :49:04. | |
been in government ten years and you see from the discussions... Do you | :49:05. | :49:08. | |
think people will have voted on that, although it is a UK poll? Yes, | :49:09. | :49:14. | |
it is clear from the BBC debate and what we have been finding on the | :49:15. | :49:18. | |
doorstep, people are concerned about the SNP's record in Government and | :49:19. | :49:22. | |
the message that comes back that people are saying, why don't you get | :49:23. | :49:28. | |
back to the day job. And why obsess over independence. People don't want | :49:29. | :49:36. | |
another independence referendum. If it is half of what the poll | :49:37. | :49:41. | |
suggests, that knocks back the independence referendum for a long | :49:42. | :49:45. | |
time. Nonsense, if the SNP win a majority of seats in Scotland, we | :49:46. | :49:52. | |
will have won a majority of seats at Holyrood and won more council seats | :49:53. | :49:57. | |
only a short time ago. And then we will have won the majority of seats | :49:58. | :50:01. | |
at the Westminster election and people banging on about independence | :50:02. | :50:05. | |
was all you guys, it wasn't us. You chose to stands on that. Is going to | :50:06. | :50:13. | |
matter is vote share. Your vote share... That is a knock for a | :50:14. | :50:21. | |
second independence referendum. I'm going to bring in Nichol Steven. | :50:22. | :50:29. | |
Your thoughts. It is two elections and astonishing in Scotland and it | :50:30. | :50:35. | |
is incredible across the UK. Theresa May and Murdo probably won't dwell | :50:36. | :50:39. | |
on this, he will focus on Scotland, but she has gone from strong and | :50:40. | :50:46. | |
stable to meek and mangled, her very future as Prime Minister is under | :50:47. | :50:49. | |
threat. In Scotland we will have a lot of local by-election and there | :50:50. | :50:54. | |
is a prospect of Labour and the Conservatives and the Liberal | :50:55. | :50:57. | |
Democrats doing well. We expect to do well in Edinburgh West and North | :50:58. | :51:05. | |
East Fife. You are predicting wins. If they're correct, I'm confident | :51:06. | :51:08. | |
there will be wins for us in Scotland. I'm sure of that. The SNP | :51:09. | :51:13. | |
going into reverse as dramatically as they have is significant. A lot | :51:14. | :51:18. | |
more to talk about. I want to cross to Paisley and or reporter Fiona | :51:19. | :51:32. | |
Walker with news from Renfrewshire. You're probably wondering about | :51:33. | :51:38. | |
Marie Black, people say it would be a surprise if she lost her seat. But | :51:39. | :51:45. | |
people are wary about their predictions. But this is the stage | :51:46. | :52:00. | |
where Douglas alexander was unstaged by Marie Black. She was the youngest | :52:01. | :52:07. | |
MP and she has criticised Wech. Women and children. Her majority is | :52:08. | :52:17. | |
five and a half thousand. Her constituency here is Paisley and | :52:18. | :52:23. | |
Renfrewshire North. They were both traditionally as safe Labour seats | :52:24. | :52:32. | |
as you go get. They went to SNP. The majority is 9,000 and probably is | :52:33. | :52:37. | |
safer. His people are confident. But we have seen politics turned on its | :52:38. | :52:42. | |
head so many times, there is no predictions being made here. It is | :52:43. | :52:46. | |
all down to the numbers and those numbers are on the table. We will | :52:47. | :52:54. | |
bring them to you around 2.30. We will back to you if you get any | :52:55. | :52:59. | |
further details. Let's catch up on the headlines now and cross to | :53:00. | :53:04. | |
Jackie Bird. Thank you. Conservative and Labour figure have reacted | :53:05. | :53:12. | |
cautiously to the exit poll, but there seems to be a specific | :53:13. | :53:17. | |
Scottish dimension to the poll regarding the SNP figures, | :53:18. | :53:22. | |
predicting the party would be down 22 seats to 34. We have been told it | :53:23. | :53:29. | |
is very tight, suggesting a 50/50 split in many Scottish seats. So | :53:30. | :53:35. | |
bear in mind. Stuart Hosie reacted to the exit poll. The main story | :53:36. | :53:40. | |
from it if it's accurate is Theresa May has given up a majority, we now | :53:41. | :53:49. | |
have again 314 Tories and 314 others and 22 from the Northern Irish | :53:50. | :53:54. | |
parties. That is an extraordinary thing. For Theresa May to call the | :53:55. | :54:00. | |
election for narrow party advantage and then if these numbers are | :54:01. | :54:09. | |
correct to blow it incredibly. Labour will be up to 266 seats. John | :54:10. | :54:17. | |
McDonnell voiced scepticism of the figures but said it showed the | :54:18. | :54:23. | |
strength of their campaign. We tried to have a positive campaign modelled | :54:24. | :54:28. | |
around Jeremy's character, you remember his slogan was honest | :54:29. | :54:33. | |
politics, straight talking, that is what we have tried to to. If it | :54:34. | :54:37. | |
reflected in this support, it changes the nature of political | :54:38. | :54:40. | |
discourse in our country. I think people have got fed up with the | :54:41. | :54:46. | |
yah-boo politics and the nasty tactics. A positive campaign if it | :54:47. | :54:52. | |
comes out like this, I think it will improve politics over all. There is | :54:53. | :54:58. | |
a battle for No 10, but also a battle to declare between Sunderland | :54:59. | :55:03. | |
and Newcastle, where they have employed young volunteers for that | :55:04. | :55:07. | |
human chain. We expect a declaration about half past 11. The pound has | :55:08. | :55:11. | |
fallen after the exit poll cast doubt on whether the Conservatives | :55:12. | :55:21. | |
would win an over all majority. The pound fell to around $1.27 at one | :55:22. | :55:30. | |
point. More reaction. Caroline Lucas said: | :55:31. | :55:58. | |
I ashum that is shocked happy, rather than shocked horrified. - | :55:59. | :56:11. | |
assume. Now over to David to look at some of the battlegrounds in | :56:12. | :56:18. | |
England. Some MPs are lucky enough to win by a mile each time. But some | :56:19. | :56:26. | |
face epic battles. Let's look at some of the battleground | :56:27. | :56:29. | |
constituency are the sitting MP has a majority of less than 10%. They | :56:30. | :56:34. | |
could matter in what could be a tight election. Let's start with the | :56:35. | :56:40. | |
most marginal seat, here it is, Gower in South Wales. | :56:41. | :56:51. | |
The Conservative's Byron Davis squeaked home. The the margin 0.05%. | :56:52. | :57:10. | |
And in Scotland, the candidate is a well kent face, David Mundell. The | :57:11. | :57:17. | |
SNP are snapping at his heels with a majority of 0.8%. The Tories under | :57:18. | :57:20. | |
pressure. But Labour seats are at risk too. Let's look just south of | :57:21. | :57:26. | |
the Lake District. There is Barrow. Labour Party in fighting has | :57:27. | :57:31. | |
affected campaigning. John Woodcock, the incumbents is a critic of Jeremy | :57:32. | :57:36. | |
Corbyn and he is under pressure from the Tories as he tries to defend a | :57:37. | :57:43. | |
majority of 0.9% of the vote. That is too close for comfort. This is | :57:44. | :57:49. | |
the Brexit election and nowhere highlights where that has caused | :57:50. | :57:53. | |
votes to swing more than Richmond, it is a wealthy part of West London | :57:54. | :58:01. | |
and it was a safe Tory seat, but last autumn the Tory MP Zac | :58:02. | :58:07. | |
Goldsmith forced a by-election over a local issue, Heathrow expansion. | :58:08. | :58:11. | |
And he lost his seat. There was a massive swing to the Liberal | :58:12. | :58:16. | |
Democrats, who asked voters to pass their verdict on Brexit. He is back | :58:17. | :58:22. | |
and can he regain the seat or has that bird flown for good? And let's | :58:23. | :58:28. | |
head to the English Midlands and Corby, that is known as Little | :58:29. | :58:33. | |
Scotland, because so many Scots came to Corby for its steelworks, this is | :58:34. | :58:40. | |
known as a bell weather, the vote tends to mirror 2 UK vote. -- the UK | :58:41. | :58:49. | |
vote. We will look at some of the more marginal seats in Scotland | :58:50. | :58:53. | |
later. There is a tough battle in some. But its all to play for right | :58:54. | :58:55. | |
across the UK tonight. Back to you. Let's cross to Elgin in the Moray | :58:56. | :59:09. | |
constituency where Angus Robertson is defending. How will he do to | :59:10. | :59:14. | |
night? Craig Anderson is the man in the know. Lossiemouth is a few miles | :59:15. | :59:24. | |
down the road. It was the birthplace of Ramsay MacDonald, Britain's first | :59:25. | :59:30. | |
Labour Prime Minister. Year, it is a two horse race. The MP for the past | :59:31. | :59:35. | |
16 years has been the SNP's Angus Robertson. He is the deputy leader, | :59:36. | :59:42. | |
and their spokesman at Westminster. Defending a majority of over 9000. | :59:43. | :59:47. | |
He certainly boosted his profile of late. Even dispassionate observers | :59:48. | :59:59. | |
have received his performance higher than Jeremy Corbyn's in attacking | :00:00. | :00:04. | |
the Conservative government led by Theresa May. Murray voted decisively | :00:05. | :00:09. | |
against independence in the 2014 referendum and it was the one area | :00:10. | :00:13. | |
in Scotland that came within a whisker of voting for Brexit. Just | :00:14. | :00:21. | |
0.2 percentage points in its. So with allegiances to fishing and | :00:22. | :00:27. | |
farming, Douglas Ross for the Conservatives might be preferred. He | :00:28. | :00:33. | |
has been a Conservative councillor for several years. Last year when he | :00:34. | :00:38. | |
stood in the Scottish Parliamentary elections he increased Conservative | :00:39. | :00:47. | |
vote by 18%. Reducing the SNP majority to just 3000. In the last | :00:48. | :00:52. | |
council elections last month, the Tories overall got the highest share | :00:53. | :00:58. | |
of the vote. The Tories have seen getting the scalp of Angus Robertson | :00:59. | :01:05. | |
as something that is due to the hearts and achievable. Ruth Davidson | :01:06. | :01:12. | |
and Nicola Sturgeon have been here in Moray to try and boost their | :01:13. | :01:18. | |
candidates' standing in the Paul. And it all may swing on the turnout. | :01:19. | :01:22. | |
If there is a high turnout and the SNP managed to get their vote out, | :01:23. | :01:30. | |
then Angus Robertson may hold on. If the turnout is low, we could be | :01:31. | :01:34. | |
facing a major upset for the party which has held the seat for the past | :01:35. | :01:38. | |
30 years. You will see behind me those baskets are empty. As the | :01:39. | :01:44. | |
night progresses, they will contain the verified votes and it will be | :01:45. | :01:53. | |
easy for us to see who is in the lead. It will be fascinating. Thank | :01:54. | :01:59. | |
you. Let's bring in our panel once again. Tell us more about the exit | :02:00. | :02:12. | |
poll and the implications of that. The exit poll is based on | :02:13. | :02:18. | |
probability. We have sampled people coming out of the polling stations | :02:19. | :02:22. | |
and compared it with vote shares last time around. The tend to sample | :02:23. | :02:28. | |
in the same places. Some of them are more likely to go than others. | :02:29. | :02:36. | |
Within Scotland, they are confident, 90%, that the SNP will lose 11 | :02:37. | :02:43. | |
seats. The other 11 comes more in terms of our balance of probability. | :02:44. | :02:50. | |
Including the two Paisley seats. It is possible that Labour might pick | :02:51. | :02:55. | |
up the seat again. But they are less certain or confident about it. One | :02:56. | :03:01. | |
thing we haven't spoken about this evening so far is turnout. | :03:02. | :03:05. | |
Everywhere I have been today, it has been pouring. It is likely to have | :03:06. | :03:10. | |
an impact. There is also a question of differential turnout. Something | :03:11. | :03:16. | |
which has been concerning SNP candidates has been the idea of a | :03:17. | :03:23. | |
differential turnout. They could identify potential voters, but could | :03:24. | :03:26. | |
they turn them out with the same enthusiasm when they won those 56 | :03:27. | :03:31. | |
seats? Or would individual rivals in individual seats, Tories, Labour and | :03:32. | :03:40. | |
Lib Dems, will they manage to enthuse their support more than the | :03:41. | :03:45. | |
SNP can do? It is not just turnout, it is differential turnout as well. | :03:46. | :03:49. | |
Those who have turned out to vote in Sunderland are having their votes | :03:50. | :03:53. | |
counted at rapid speed because Sunderland is keen to be first with | :03:54. | :03:58. | |
a declaration from anywhere the UK. You will have seen the high security | :03:59. | :04:03. | |
in place at that particular account. Let's talk a bit more about the exit | :04:04. | :04:11. | |
poll in a broader UK context. We spoke about some of the seats that | :04:12. | :04:15. | |
might be vulnerable in Scotland, but what about in England? The | :04:16. | :04:27. | |
prediction is the Lib Dems would potentially win four seat in | :04:28. | :04:31. | |
Scotland. Some could go from the Conservatives to Labour. It is a | :04:32. | :04:35. | |
sample and it could be wrong completely or slightly. Under the | :04:36. | :04:39. | |
scenario of the exit poll, Labour could be picking up the likes of | :04:40. | :04:46. | |
Croydon, Brighton and Enfield. Also the old seat for Ed Balls. They | :04:47. | :04:51. | |
might be taking that back. Worcester. Direct. Not picking up | :04:52. | :05:04. | |
Twickenham, where Vince Cable was standing. And keen to get more | :05:05. | :05:10. | |
detail from one of the constituencies in England. Let's | :05:11. | :05:16. | |
cross to Tooting in London. Held by Justine Greening. Defended by her. | :05:17. | :05:22. | |
What are you hearing, Clive? Three counts here in Wandsworth. Putney is | :05:23. | :05:31. | |
Justine Greening's constituency. Cabinet minister for the | :05:32. | :05:34. | |
Conservatives, big figure in the party. 10,000 majority in pretty | :05:35. | :05:39. | |
unassailable. For the Conservatives, that is more than likely a | :05:40. | :05:43. | |
Conservative hold. The other two constituencies to be counted here | :05:44. | :05:49. | |
could be very interesting indeed. Tooting and Battersby. Tooting, | :05:50. | :05:54. | |
Sadiq Khan's old constituency. Now the Mayor of London. In the | :05:55. | :05:57. | |
by-election, it was held by the Labour Party but with the majority | :05:58. | :06:04. | |
reduced to just over 6000. Was in Alan can't. The Conservatives have | :06:05. | :06:08. | |
coveted Tooting for the last two election cycles. Money and resources | :06:09. | :06:16. | |
into the area. If the overall exit poll is anything to go by, it | :06:17. | :06:21. | |
suggests the Labour Party have managed to hold on to Tooting. | :06:22. | :06:26. | |
Battersby is interesting. Conservative, held by Jane Ellison, | :06:27. | :06:30. | |
a majority of about 8000 but that has been described as being on a | :06:31. | :06:36. | |
knife edge. Again, going back to the exit poll, that could suggest the | :06:37. | :06:41. | |
Labour Party may have made inroads there and take on that particular | :06:42. | :06:45. | |
seats. The other interesting thing about that Battersby area is it as | :06:46. | :06:51. | |
part of a Romanian area in south London. The 40 to stay in the | :06:52. | :06:55. | |
European Union. That feeling could be tonight that a lot of voters | :06:56. | :07:03. | |
anxious about a possible hard Brexit, which some are suggesting | :07:04. | :07:07. | |
the Conservatives might be pushing for if you don't get the right deal | :07:08. | :07:11. | |
they want from the Brexit talks, those voters may well have decided | :07:12. | :07:16. | |
to go with the Labour candidate. Very interesting times here in south | :07:17. | :07:24. | |
London. Clive, thank you. Let's go to our first declaration. It has | :07:25. | :07:28. | |
come not from Sunderland but Newcastle Central. Labour have held | :07:29. | :07:30. | |
Newcastle Central. Labour's vote is up ten percentage | :07:31. | :08:12. | |
points in Newcastle Central. Conservatives also up but not by as | :08:13. | :08:23. | |
much as. Ukip is down 11. A couple of years ago, we can see there is a | :08:24. | :08:35. | |
2.1% swing for Labour. A good result for Chi Onwurah. Returned with an | :08:36. | :08:42. | |
increased swing. The projection of the swing is not quite as the exit | :08:43. | :08:48. | |
poll would have suggested. Perhaps we begin, only one result, but let's | :08:49. | :08:58. | |
caveat this further. Swing to Labour is not as big as the exit poll would | :08:59. | :09:05. | |
suggest. More fun to come! Let's cross to Glenrothes. Good evening, | :09:06. | :09:14. | |
Laura. Good evening. Three constituencies to be declared. All | :09:15. | :09:21. | |
of them SNP at the moment. We will watch two of them closely indeed. | :09:22. | :09:27. | |
North East Fife held for almost 30 years. Sir Menzies Campbell for the | :09:28. | :09:35. | |
Liberal Democrats. Stephen Gethins one the SNP with the majority of | :09:36. | :09:39. | |
4000. The Lib Dems have been trying hard to win the seat back. The local | :09:40. | :09:44. | |
candidate has been a councillor cure for decades and she thinks that with | :09:45. | :09:48. | |
her experience and teaching background, she will appeal to | :09:49. | :09:52. | |
student voters from the University of St Andrews, there is a lot of | :09:53. | :09:59. | |
farming and agriculture here. North East Fife will definitely be one to | :10:00. | :10:03. | |
watch, particularly after Willie Rennie took the seat for the | :10:04. | :10:09. | |
Scottish Parliament election last year. Glenrothes, a big majority | :10:10. | :10:16. | |
held for the SNP. Not sure if they will be any change. Kirkcaldy and | :10:17. | :10:20. | |
Cowdenbeath will be one to watch. Labour stronghold under Gordon Brown | :10:21. | :10:26. | |
for many years. Taken by the SNP two years ago but made at target seat by | :10:27. | :10:31. | |
the Scottish Labour Party this time around. We will watch to see if they | :10:32. | :10:35. | |
can take over that majority. In terms of reaction to the exit poll | :10:36. | :10:41. | |
tonight, I have spoken to and SNP MSP who was surprised at the | :10:42. | :10:45. | |
apparent loss of seats which seemed possible for the SNP. She said that | :10:46. | :10:49. | |
wasn't what we had been hearing on the doorstep and one of the | :10:50. | :10:55. | |
candidates tonight for the SNP has said he was surprised as well and | :10:56. | :10:58. | |
they had been expecting similar numbers to last time around. We will | :10:59. | :11:05. | |
know the results from here hopefully between 3am and 4am. North East Fife | :11:06. | :11:11. | |
is likely to be the one to watch. Let's go up north to Dingwall. | :11:12. | :11:23. | |
Dingwall is the place where there were something like a parliament in | :11:24. | :11:31. | |
the past. This is a Highland football academy. Next door to the | :11:32. | :11:37. | |
Ross County ground. With a training and developing of the future World | :11:38. | :11:43. | |
Cup winners takes place. Inverness, Nairn and Strathspey. Lochaber. | :11:44. | :11:49. | |
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross. Were talking about the tenth | :11:50. | :11:57. | |
most marginal seat in Scotland. If the exit poll is to be believed, | :11:58. | :12:03. | |
that will be in play and so might be other two. This was a liberal | :12:04. | :12:06. | |
country, then Liberal Democrat country. For a huge period of time. | :12:07. | :12:15. | |
Danny Alexander, Charlie Kennedy. All three seats were lost to the SNP | :12:16. | :12:20. | |
last time around. Could the Lib Dems get lucky or victorious tonight? | :12:21. | :12:25. | |
Could Labour or the Conservatives come back into play? We'll have to | :12:26. | :12:34. | |
wait a week to find out. The logistics of this are enormous. We | :12:35. | :12:42. | |
are talking about all the way north of Ullapool, east to Cromarty, | :12:43. | :12:48. | |
across to the Isle of Skye. And of course Ron and egg. We have to get | :12:49. | :12:54. | |
the ballots back from there. -- the islands of rum and egg. A bit of a | :12:55. | :13:03. | |
week. I will leave you with this. North Skye and Lochaber is | :13:04. | :13:08. | |
physically the largest constituency in the UK Parliament. The smallest | :13:09. | :13:17. | |
constituency by size is what? Why might it be in play tonight? You're | :13:18. | :13:30. | |
asking me that live on air! Islington North? Where Jeremy Corbyn | :13:31. | :13:34. | |
is standing. The Liberal Democrats are challenging the SNP and seeking | :13:35. | :13:41. | |
to regain a seat they previously held is in Dunbartonshire East. | :13:42. | :13:46. | |
Let's go to the count. Jamie McIvor is in Bishopbriggs. | :13:47. | :13:51. | |
It is a small constituency compare to one the Ken was describing, all | :13:52. | :14:02. | |
the ballot boxes have arrived in Bishopbriggs and the papers have | :14:03. | :14:06. | |
being verified. It will be interesting here, the SNP is | :14:07. | :14:13. | |
defending a wafer thin majority in Scottish terms of just 2,000. The | :14:14. | :14:15. | |
Liberal Democrats have been pouring a lot of time and effort into this | :14:16. | :14:22. | |
seat in the hope that the former MP Jo Swinson will be on her way back | :14:23. | :14:26. | |
to Westminster. The last time the SNP surged from fourth to first here | :14:27. | :14:32. | |
and what was interesting was that Swinson increased her vote, but the | :14:33. | :14:37. | |
SNP vote came from a relatively low level and surged right out in front. | :14:38. | :14:42. | |
Who are the two main candidates here? Well, the incumbent is John | :14:43. | :14:48. | |
Nicholson, one of the most high profile of the SNP intake of 2015. | :14:49. | :14:56. | |
You may remember him as a former television presenter who presented | :14:57. | :15:00. | |
breakfast news. But since he has been an MP he has been a high | :15:01. | :15:11. | |
profile SNP MP. His main challenger is the previous incumbent, Jo | :15:12. | :15:19. | |
Swinson, she was the MP from 2005 until 2015 and served in the | :15:20. | :15:22. | |
coalition government and seen as a rising star within the Liberal | :15:23. | :15:27. | |
Democrats. But the Liberal Democrats are hoping it is Jo Swinson's | :15:28. | :15:32. | |
personal popularity that may see her on the way back to Westminster. One | :15:33. | :15:38. | |
interesting question is whether the anti-SNP vote here is converging | :15:39. | :15:42. | |
around the Liberal Democrats or whether the Labour and Conservative | :15:43. | :15:47. | |
vote will hold up. While the SNP here have been arguing, as they have | :15:48. | :15:51. | |
been in other places, if you don't want to see a Conservative | :15:52. | :15:54. | |
government, the best thing to do is vote SNP. But we expecting the | :15:55. | :15:58. | |
result around 3 o'clock and certainly in view of that dramatic | :15:59. | :16:03. | |
exit poll, the SNP will be very happy indeed if they hold on here, | :16:04. | :16:09. | |
while the Liberal Democrats will be disappointed if nay don't make | :16:10. | :16:14. | |
Scottish names to Webbing. Thank you Scottish names to Webbing. Thank you | :16:15. | :16:18. | |
-- to Westminster. Now another result. We have two MPs in the UK. | :16:19. | :16:24. | |
They're both Labour. The result from Sunderland South. Labour holding, | :16:25. | :16:29. | |
Bridget Phillipson. On a turn out of 61%. So Labour with | :16:30. | :16:45. | |
59% of the vote. The Labour vote is up 4 and the | :16:46. | :17:06. | |
Conservative vote up 11 and the vote for Ukip down heavily 16 points. | :17:07. | :17:13. | |
What do you think of that result? A good result for Bridget Phillipson. | :17:14. | :17:21. | |
It is a victory for Labour, but not as big a victory as the exit poll | :17:22. | :17:25. | |
would indicate. That would indicate a better result for the | :17:26. | :17:28. | |
Conservatives than the exit poll said. The exit poll talked of Tories | :17:29. | :17:35. | |
down 17 seats and Labour up 34. It may still be borne out. But the | :17:36. | :17:41. | |
first two, Tyneside and wearside coming in and as so often Tyneside | :17:42. | :17:46. | |
winning the battle to be first. But neither is indicating in line with | :17:47. | :17:52. | |
the exit poll in the terms of extents of a Conservative decline. | :17:53. | :17:59. | |
This is one of most Brexity parts of the UK but the people seem to be | :18:00. | :18:04. | |
abandoned Ukip and the Tories are benefitting. There is that question | :18:05. | :18:09. | |
of leave and remain and the question that the Tories it would seem might | :18:10. | :18:14. | |
be doing better in, from the exit poll, in seats where they were | :18:15. | :18:19. | |
marginally in the lead. Again it is a question of probabilities, if you | :18:20. | :18:23. | |
take the straight swing, it produces a result of Labour up 34 and Tories | :18:24. | :18:31. | |
down 17. If the trend is not as is, if the turn out is not as is, you | :18:32. | :18:37. | |
get a very different picture, so we keep saying, it is a sample, not a | :18:38. | :18:47. | |
result. With the two results, it is probably two early to revise the | :18:48. | :18:51. | |
exit poll. But we will keep an eye on that. I want to cross to | :18:52. | :18:57. | |
Edinburgh and speak to Tommy Shepherd, who is defending a | :18:58. | :19:02. | |
constituency in the east of the city. In his two years in the House | :19:03. | :19:07. | |
of Commons challenged for the deputy leadership of the SNP. Do you | :19:08. | :19:13. | |
believe the exit poll? I don't know, Glenn. Two years ago we had a | :19:14. | :19:17. | |
similar poll that predicted the same thing, a hung Parliament and we all | :19:18. | :19:21. | |
spent a few hours getting excited about it and then it didn't happen. | :19:22. | :19:27. | |
So I'm, I think I'm on the side of let's wait and see. I know from what | :19:28. | :19:32. | |
Brian said the first couple of results have people walking back | :19:33. | :19:35. | |
from the exit polls. Maybe that is good for keeping interest alive in | :19:36. | :19:39. | |
these hours before we know anything at all. But I think we will have to | :19:40. | :19:48. | |
wait and see. If it were true it would be a catastrophic night for | :19:49. | :19:51. | |
the Conservatives and a case of snatching defeat from the jaws of | :19:52. | :19:56. | |
victory. If it is true, then she will be gone by the morning. If | :19:57. | :20:01. | |
you're going backwards to Tex tent that this -- to the extent this poll | :20:02. | :20:07. | |
suggests, and losing 22 seats, wouldn't that be a big for your | :20:08. | :20:11. | |
hopes of a second independence referendum? Yes, it will still be a | :20:12. | :20:17. | |
landslide and won more seats than any party in Scotland and won the | :20:18. | :20:22. | |
general election and had it not been for the absolutely remarkable result | :20:23. | :20:28. | |
two years ago, people would have said it was a phenomenal result. So | :20:29. | :20:32. | |
the dogs in the street knew they weren't going to win all 56 seats | :20:33. | :20:38. | |
that we won the last time. Let's see how many we win, but the SNP is | :20:39. | :20:41. | |
winning and will win the general election in Scotland and the | :20:42. | :20:45. | |
Conservatives have failed to get a mandated in Scotland for their | :20:46. | :20:50. | |
austerity policies and their attempts to block Scottish people | :20:51. | :20:53. | |
having a choice in their future once we know what Brexit means. Do you | :20:54. | :20:57. | |
think it would happen in those circumstances? Do I think what would | :20:58. | :21:06. | |
happen. A second independence referendum? Well, we are convinced | :21:07. | :21:14. | |
of the need to have a second referendum, once we know what the | :21:15. | :21:17. | |
Brexit deal is and people see the shape of the United Kingdom that | :21:18. | :21:21. | |
emerges, of course people should have the opportunities to decide if | :21:22. | :21:24. | |
that is what they want and that is the United Kingdom they voted to be | :21:25. | :21:28. | |
part of, or whether they should take powers into their own hands and seek | :21:29. | :21:34. | |
to be self-governing nation. That is for the Scottish people and not Ruth | :21:35. | :21:40. | |
Davidson or Theresa May to prevents them having that choice. Of course | :21:41. | :21:43. | |
it is for the UK to decide whether they transfer the power tosecond | :21:44. | :21:47. | |
independence referendum. We will talk about that later no doubt. | :21:48. | :21:56. | |
Thank you very much. Now let's cross to David Henderson for a look at | :21:57. | :22:02. | |
polling. Tonight's exit poll points to an exciting night, but throughout | :22:03. | :22:06. | |
election campaigns, opinion polls appear almost daily and at the last | :22:07. | :22:12. | |
general election just two years ago they were completely wrong as they | :22:13. | :22:15. | |
predicted a win for the Labour Party. That prompted questions about | :22:16. | :22:19. | |
the way pollsters make their predictions. The approach has | :22:20. | :22:24. | |
changed as a result, but it is still hard to know which company to trust | :22:25. | :22:29. | |
as their current predictions vary. Looking at Scotland in a moment, but | :22:30. | :22:33. | |
here is the average poll of polls, looking at the Conservatives and | :22:34. | :22:38. | |
Labour, the biggest UK parties. It shows how people said they would | :22:39. | :22:43. | |
vote in April after the election was called. Then in May. And in June at | :22:44. | :22:48. | |
that end. You can see the Conservatives with a pretty solid | :22:49. | :22:52. | |
lead throughout. But there is a dip for the Tories there. Just before | :22:53. | :22:58. | |
Theresa May had to make an embarrassing U-turn on social care. | :22:59. | :23:03. | |
By contrast, Labour's popularity seems to have grown as the months go | :23:04. | :23:07. | |
on. The red line on the graph heading up which suggests their | :23:08. | :23:11. | |
strategy of putting Jeremy Corbyn out there with the public seems to | :23:12. | :23:15. | |
have been working. But take a look at this, different polls tell us | :23:16. | :23:21. | |
different things and this YouGov poll received a lot of publicity, | :23:22. | :23:25. | |
pointing to a gap between the Tories and Labour being very close. You can | :23:26. | :23:32. | |
see they're only 4% between them. So while most pomster -- pollsters | :23:33. | :23:36. | |
claim Theresa May became more popular once the election was called | :23:37. | :23:43. | |
and then dipped, YouGov has seen Mrs May's lead to be much less solid | :23:44. | :23:50. | |
throughout the campaign. And it chimes with tonight's exit poll too. | :23:51. | :23:54. | |
This is the average poll of polls for voters in Scotland and very | :23:55. | :23:59. | |
interesting, you can see the SNP dominant still, far and away the | :24:00. | :24:05. | |
most popular party. But in the latest poll the lead has tumbled and | :24:06. | :24:11. | |
look at the support it used to get and the voters are appearing to have | :24:12. | :24:17. | |
gone not to the Tories as many said but to the red, the Labour Party. | :24:18. | :24:22. | |
Jeremy Corbyn's campaign perhaps gaining traction in Scotland too and | :24:23. | :24:26. | |
reflected in the exit poll. Whatever they disagree on, the polls all | :24:27. | :24:30. | |
point to the Conservatives returning as the main party, and the SNP | :24:31. | :24:35. | |
winning the most Scottish seats, but if those polls are to be believed, | :24:36. | :24:39. | |
the election could be a set back for both Theresa May and Nicola | :24:40. | :24:46. | |
Sturgeon. Now let's cross to Aileen Clarke in Glasgow. You have got a | :24:47. | :24:59. | |
guest? Yes, let me introduce to you, Frank McAveety, a former MSP, are | :25:00. | :25:04. | |
you going to take back any seats tonight? It is far too early to make | :25:05. | :25:13. | |
any predictions. If the exit poll is to be believed, the ball is back in | :25:14. | :25:17. | |
play and hopefully our candidates in Glasgow put up a fantastic fight and | :25:18. | :25:21. | |
will demonstrate there is a serious pressure from Labour in the city of | :25:22. | :25:26. | |
Glasgow to the SNP vote that they received in 2015. From the SNP, when | :25:27. | :25:31. | |
they won the seats, they did so with some style. There are stonking | :25:32. | :25:36. | |
majorities here, do you think you will win a seat or will you get | :25:37. | :25:41. | |
close? Again it is hard. I have seen some returns that indicate that we | :25:42. | :25:43. | |
are back in the fight and if you said to me, after those levels of | :25:44. | :25:48. | |
majorities, that Labour would be this close, two years later, I think | :25:49. | :25:51. | |
people would have been saying that is not going to be the case. So we | :25:52. | :25:56. | |
are back in the fight and people have put out fantastic campaigns, | :25:57. | :26:01. | |
and the reality if the exit poll is to be believed is Theresa May is | :26:02. | :26:05. | |
holed below the water line in the UK and the SNP look as if they're going | :26:06. | :26:09. | |
to lose a substantial number of seats in Scotland. So a message has | :26:10. | :26:14. | |
been sent to the SNP and the First Minister that preoccupation with | :26:15. | :26:17. | |
another independence referendum is affecting the SNP vote and we in the | :26:18. | :26:23. | |
Labour Party have gave the most radical programme we have put | :26:24. | :26:27. | |
forward in recent generations and that has resonated with people who | :26:28. | :26:31. | |
have been hurting because of the the Tory governments. What has made the | :26:32. | :26:36. | |
difference between the council elections and here, Labour is no | :26:37. | :26:38. | |
longer in control of Glasgow council, it is the SNP that are | :26:39. | :26:43. | |
running it now. That was skraus few weeks ago. We were told six months | :26:44. | :26:54. | |
ago the SNP would be a shoe in for a joshgts majority council. But | :26:55. | :26:59. | |
they're a minority council. What people have seen in this election is | :27:00. | :27:04. | |
a Labour programme that has resonated with what the concerns of | :27:05. | :27:10. | |
the public and messages about how we improve public services and make | :27:11. | :27:13. | |
sure people get the best chance in life. That message has come through | :27:14. | :27:17. | |
and it was clear for the many and not the few. The SNP was unfocussed | :27:18. | :27:23. | |
and the Tory message was untrue by the weakness of the Prime Minister. | :27:24. | :27:28. | |
A shift I think we have a chance to show that, in Glasgow, Labour's back | :27:29. | :27:32. | |
in the game and if we win some seats that would be amazing. Let's see. We | :27:33. | :27:38. | |
will see how much you're back in the game when the votes are counted. I | :27:39. | :27:46. | |
will try and get you an SNP guest. They're a bit tight-lipped at the | :27:47. | :27:49. | |
moment. That might tell you something at the moment. Thank you. | :27:50. | :27:57. | |
Now to Fiona and see who her guests are in the cafe. The caffeine is | :27:58. | :28:04. | |
flowing and we have a surprising exit poll and it is just an exit | :28:05. | :28:14. | |
poll. I have Kevin McKenna, I wish there had been a camera on the cafe | :28:15. | :28:20. | |
when the exit poll was announced, there was a lot of surprise. What is | :28:21. | :28:25. | |
your reaction? We woke up and realised that the, that a long night | :28:26. | :28:32. | |
would get more interesting. We are actually hearing more astounding | :28:33. | :28:37. | |
indications of what might be happening in Scotland with massive | :28:38. | :28:43. | |
SNP majorities and one could go to Labour F that does indicate a Labour | :28:44. | :28:49. | |
surge in Scotland rather than a Conservative surge, you wonder if it | :28:50. | :28:53. | |
is a case of what might have been in Jeremy Corbyn's camp, if he does | :28:54. | :28:58. | |
stop Theresa May getting an over all majority, he might be thinking to | :28:59. | :29:02. | |
himself, if the Labour in Scotland had got its act together what could | :29:03. | :29:10. | |
have happened nationally? That is interesting. I'm joined by a former | :29:11. | :29:14. | |
advisor to Scottish Labour. What do you think of that points? | :29:15. | :29:21. | |
Firstly, oppositions don't win elections, governments lose them. | :29:22. | :29:29. | |
Theresa May has had a terrible night. Equally, Nicola Sturgeon and | :29:30. | :29:33. | |
the SNP have had a fairly terrible night. If exit polls are to be | :29:34. | :29:38. | |
believed, they will lose a lot of seats. Iran opera and pretty | :29:39. | :29:43. | |
unfocused campaign. I hope the exit polls are about right, but it is a | :29:44. | :29:48. | |
long way to go now. Where do Scottish Labour go from here? Kezia | :29:49. | :29:55. | |
Dugdale had a lot to do when she took over. Recovery has to go | :29:56. | :29:58. | |
through this point. We have to be here at some point in order to get | :29:59. | :30:03. | |
to the recovery we need of getting about half of the people who went | :30:04. | :30:07. | |
over to the SNP to come back to Labour. Are things Scottish Labour | :30:08. | :30:14. | |
will be encouraged and optimistic. As the results come in, we will see | :30:15. | :30:19. | |
how optimistically ought to be. Just predictions at the moment. You are | :30:20. | :30:25. | |
one of those gasping. I wish we had cotula on camera. I think if there | :30:26. | :30:32. | |
is a labour bounce, it is very much about Jeremy Corbyn. I spoke to a | :30:33. | :30:37. | |
lot of SNP activists this week who said on the actual doorsteps week | :30:38. | :30:39. | |
they were hearing from a lot of people that people wanted to see a | :30:40. | :30:46. | |
way back from Labour. They were not sure, still undecided. In some ways, | :30:47. | :30:50. | |
you can see that maybe SNP supporters on the left wing of the | :30:51. | :30:56. | |
party may be very tempted by what Jeremy Corbyn had to offer and by | :30:57. | :31:01. | |
the overall thought of a Jeremy Corbyn moment, if you like. Our | :31:02. | :31:10. | |
guests earlier literally decided to go radical at the last moment and | :31:11. | :31:15. | |
vote for Jeremy Corbyn. Is the young vote playing into that? I think the | :31:16. | :31:19. | |
young vote in England and Wales has a lot to do with this. Jeremy | :31:20. | :31:25. | |
Corbyn's manifesto had a lot to offer young people. If they were | :31:26. | :31:29. | |
brought out to vote, maybe this will have made a huge difference. Tuition | :31:30. | :31:34. | |
fees, anti-austerity, very interesting to see how England and | :31:35. | :31:39. | |
Wills have voted in this as well. For a long time, I think we have | :31:40. | :31:45. | |
felt that has been addressed and maybe there will be more thought | :31:46. | :31:48. | |
throughout the United Kingdom and it will be very interesting to see how | :31:49. | :31:55. | |
this changes things. Kevin has coordinated his tie with my suit. | :31:56. | :32:00. | |
Lots more to come. Someone who has been up and down the highways and | :32:01. | :32:06. | |
byways of Scotland is neck. He has arrived in the election cafe. I | :32:07. | :32:11. | |
think a more interesting night than any of us thought. I think there is | :32:12. | :32:17. | |
a feeling with most of the parties at the moment that they are treating | :32:18. | :32:21. | |
the exit poll with a dose of scepticism. The SNP are not quite at | :32:22. | :32:27. | |
the point where they are realistically entertaining they | :32:28. | :32:33. | |
could lose 22 seats. The Tories think the early tallies around the | :32:34. | :32:36. | |
country are looking pretty good for them. We have been optimistic across | :32:37. | :32:41. | |
the country. Confident, not quite. That is starting to change in some | :32:42. | :32:47. | |
key areas. David Mundell is predicting they could win all three | :32:48. | :32:50. | |
seats in the South of Scotland. One of them is his. My sources tell me | :32:51. | :32:57. | |
it is looking good for the party in Perth. That is a fascinating seat. | :32:58. | :33:05. | |
The SNP have held it since 1997. Pete Wishart was the MP. He is a | :33:06. | :33:12. | |
high-profile member of that old SNP group at Westminster. Taking that | :33:13. | :33:16. | |
would be a big result. Labour at the moment are playing down the idea | :33:17. | :33:21. | |
they can make massive gains in Scotland. They think the majorities | :33:22. | :33:26. | |
in some places are just too big. East Lothian, optimistic. Better | :33:27. | :33:32. | |
than expected in Rutherglen and Hamilton West. Lib Dems are quiet | :33:33. | :33:35. | |
for now but some people in North East Fife are suggesting it is a | :33:36. | :33:40. | |
close race there between the Lib Dems and the SNP. I will get you | :33:41. | :33:46. | |
more caffeine if you keep digging. Deal? An interesting night. If you | :33:47. | :33:50. | |
want to join in the conversation, let us know what you think or ask | :33:51. | :33:54. | |
any of our cafe customers what they think. I didn't get the message | :33:55. | :34:02. | |
about colour coordination, Alastair Walker Matt. Let's cross to Jackie | :34:03. | :34:06. | |
Bird for the headlines. The first results are in. Newcastle | :34:07. | :34:09. | |
won the race against Sunderland to be the first seat to declare. Called | :34:10. | :34:19. | |
for a Labour with a 2% swing. Sunderland declared a Labour hold | :34:20. | :34:21. | |
but with a small swing to the Conservatives. We have a bit of a | :34:22. | :34:24. | |
wait for the first Scottish seats. Let's look at how the party's share | :34:25. | :34:29. | |
of the vote in Scotland has changed over the last 20 years. Cast your | :34:30. | :34:36. | |
mind back to 1997, New Labour sweeps to power. This man enters Number Ten | :34:37. | :34:41. | |
and cool Britannia is born. Labour are on 45% in Scotland. SNP with 22. | :34:42. | :34:50. | |
Conservatives slightly below but with no MPs north of the border. | :34:51. | :34:59. | |
2001, foot and mouth which delays the election by a month. Labour | :35:00. | :35:04. | |
Sierra goes down slightly. Tony Blair remains a Number Ten. William | :35:05. | :35:10. | |
Hague resigns. The SNP are down slightly, but look at the Liberal | :35:11. | :35:18. | |
Democrats. Their sheer increases. 2005, the Iraq war takes its toll on | :35:19. | :35:23. | |
Tony Blair at the ballot box. An historic third term, but the | :35:24. | :35:27. | |
majority slashed. The Liberal Democrats are on the rise, taking 62 | :35:28. | :35:32. | |
seats across the UK. Their best showing since the 1920s in Scotland. | :35:33. | :35:40. | |
We saw their share increased from 16.5% up to 22.5%. 2010, Gordon | :35:41. | :35:47. | |
Brown loses the UK election but Labour finds success in Scotland | :35:48. | :35:51. | |
where it increases its share of the vote. The Tories and Lib Dems go | :35:52. | :35:56. | |
into form a coalition government. Then the game changer. The | :35:57. | :36:03. | |
independence referendum in 2014 and the SNP record an astonishing | :36:04. | :36:12. | |
victory the following year. The other three parties get one solitary | :36:13. | :36:19. | |
MP each. The question is whether the SNP can repeat their remarkable | :36:20. | :36:25. | |
performance. Is not, who will gain at their expense? Looking at | :36:26. | :36:29. | |
Twitter, Armando Ianucci is calling for a government of national unity | :36:30. | :36:37. | |
to deal with Brexit. The son of Sir Malcolm Rifkind is that the | :36:38. | :36:43. | |
projected SNP losses are wrong. Finally David Torrance reminding us | :36:44. | :36:51. | |
that there were doubtful reactions in 2010 and 2015 which both proved | :36:52. | :36:56. | |
to be right. Let's bring in our political panel | :36:57. | :37:01. | |
once again and pick up on the campaign that has just been fought. | :37:02. | :37:06. | |
We haven't spoken about that yet. Obviously in calling the election, | :37:07. | :37:09. | |
Theresa May said it would be the Brexit election but we haven't | :37:10. | :37:12. | |
learned a thing about she would do to deliver Brexit for the UK. I | :37:13. | :37:20. | |
think I have been two different campaigns. Size of the border, | :37:21. | :37:28. | |
focused on Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn. Brexit is featured, but it | :37:29. | :37:34. | |
is about the record of the UK Government and immigration. Security | :37:35. | :37:38. | |
and terrorism. The campaign in Scotland has been entirely | :37:39. | :37:42. | |
different. Much more focused on personalities of Nicola Sturgeon, | :37:43. | :37:48. | |
Ruth Davidson, Kezia Dugdale and Willie Rennie and issues have been | :37:49. | :37:52. | |
different. The issues have been, should we have a second independence | :37:53. | :38:00. | |
referendum? And the SNP are defending a record of ten years. Do | :38:01. | :38:05. | |
you accept that Theresa May has been far less than the strong and stable | :38:06. | :38:10. | |
leader that she started out this campaign saying she would be? | :38:11. | :38:18. | |
Theresa May is not a natural media performer in the way that some | :38:19. | :38:23. | |
unlike Ruth Davidson is. Let's not start writing political obituaries | :38:24. | :38:28. | |
until we get results and. And exit poll is an exit poll. From the first | :38:29. | :38:35. | |
two results, it looks like it might be a bit. If you set out to have an | :38:36. | :38:40. | |
election in order to increase your majority and feel to do that, surely | :38:41. | :38:48. | |
you can't hang around? There are lots of hypotheticals they are. If | :38:49. | :38:52. | |
she doesn't make progress, does she have to She will still be Prime | :38:53. | :38:58. | |
Minister. Assuming we come out as the largest party, there is a job to | :38:59. | :39:01. | |
be done to form a government every don't have a majority. But there is | :39:02. | :39:09. | |
a long way to go. Do have confidence in Theresa May in | :39:10. | :39:18. | |
no circumstances? Yes. You're not a natural supporter of Jeremy Corbyn, | :39:19. | :39:21. | |
but have you been surprised at how well he has done? I think he has had | :39:22. | :39:28. | |
a very spirited and strong campaign if the exit polls are to be | :39:29. | :39:32. | |
believed. Trying to make sense of that, it is because the policies | :39:33. | :39:38. | |
offered were properly supported by the population, contrary to some of | :39:39. | :39:42. | |
their critics. Of popular document with popular policies. I did not | :39:43. | :39:47. | |
support Jeremy Corbyn from leadership. But he brought a degree | :39:48. | :39:52. | |
of authenticity to his campaigning. He genuinely believes the manifesto | :39:53. | :39:56. | |
on which he stood. I think that helps explain the response he | :39:57. | :40:01. | |
received. People are tired of inauthenticity that Theresa May | :40:02. | :40:04. | |
manifested in interview after interview. She would give sound | :40:05. | :40:10. | |
bites about being strong and stable and everything else. With Jeremy | :40:11. | :40:13. | |
Corbyn, what you see is what you get. He has been arguing for these | :40:14. | :40:19. | |
politics for many years. Comfortable in his skin. That authenticity | :40:20. | :40:25. | |
carries. If we see the kind of numbers the exit poll suggests, I | :40:26. | :40:27. | |
think there are some powerful lessons. Or the last ten years, the | :40:28. | :40:33. | |
SNP have had the momentum. One of the reasons was because they were | :40:34. | :40:38. | |
very good at Freeman elections. In 2015, it was stronger for Scotland. | :40:39. | :40:43. | |
One of the things that is intriguing about this campaign is even the SNP | :40:44. | :40:47. | |
couldn't decide what it was about. Was it about independence? Was it | :40:48. | :40:56. | |
about Brexit? A second independence referendum? Defending the record in | :40:57. | :41:01. | |
government? If the party cannot decide what the election is about, | :41:02. | :41:08. | |
you should not be surprised that supporters can't decide. Playback | :41:09. | :41:11. | |
from your point of view, if there was any chance of Jeremy Corbyn been | :41:12. | :41:14. | |
Prime Minister, would you be happy for that to happen? Would you | :41:15. | :41:22. | |
support him in that office? I want to see a Labour government. | :41:23. | :41:27. | |
It is why I've been knocking on doors. I'm not sure I could sum up | :41:28. | :41:32. | |
in a sentence what the SNP's message in this campaign has been. Has it | :41:33. | :41:37. | |
been difficult to try and frame that message? I don't think so. I think | :41:38. | :41:42. | |
we were very clear on what our message was. The Prime Minister | :41:43. | :41:46. | |
called a snap election in order to have a stronger hand in Europe. She | :41:47. | :41:51. | |
has failed in that. One of the big questions to come out of this UK | :41:52. | :41:57. | |
election is exactly how is the UK going to negotiate anything very | :41:58. | :42:03. | |
much in Europe? Sum it up in a sentence. What was your core pitch? | :42:04. | :42:07. | |
In terms of Brexit, our argument was and always has been that Scotland's | :42:08. | :42:12. | |
position should be taken account of in UK negotiations and Scotland | :42:13. | :42:16. | |
should have a place at the negotiating table. That has been | :42:17. | :42:20. | |
consistently sporran. The UK Government has actually refused to | :42:21. | :42:24. | |
even discuss it. And what we have said is that we want to be part of | :42:25. | :42:29. | |
the single market, we want to have better controls over immigration and | :42:30. | :42:34. | |
Scotland. I understand your position. It's not very snappy. I | :42:35. | :42:40. | |
think it was snappy. The problem was we had to fight part of that | :42:41. | :42:45. | |
election in response to an argument about a second independence | :42:46. | :42:48. | |
referendum which was not actually an argument that we set out in the | :42:49. | :42:53. | |
first place. You demanded it two months before because you weren't | :42:54. | :42:58. | |
getting your way over Brexit! No, no. Nicola Sturgeon was ignored. | :42:59. | :43:07. | |
Theresa May came to Scotland and said you will be part of all this. | :43:08. | :43:11. | |
None of that happened. She didn't even read the very clear exposition | :43:12. | :43:15. | |
the Scottish Government and the parliament voted for 2 cents to | :43:16. | :43:19. | |
Theresa May about our position in Europe. The First Minister said, if | :43:20. | :43:25. | |
you are not going to listen to us, the deal you negotiate will be a | :43:26. | :43:28. | |
hard Brexit and the people of Scotland have the right to choose in | :43:29. | :43:34. | |
no circumstances what they want to do. That was what we said. Thank | :43:35. | :43:39. | |
you. Nickel Stephen, we will come to you next time. Let's cross to the | :43:40. | :43:46. | |
constituency that Amber Rudd is defending. What are you hearing? | :43:47. | :43:50. | |
If the election was judged on smiles, then the Labour Party will | :43:51. | :43:58. | |
have been successful here. They're ecstatic and the looks on the the | :43:59. | :44:04. | |
faces of Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats are looking very | :44:05. | :44:08. | |
stressed and worried. Labour say they have had a fantastic campaign | :44:09. | :44:12. | |
and a snap election was called, an election they were not prepared for, | :44:13. | :44:20. | |
but they have been able to mobilise 2,000 volunteers and canvassed more | :44:21. | :44:23. | |
homes than they have done before. They put that down to Jeremy Corbyn. | :44:24. | :44:27. | |
They say the vote is up for them. But they're unable to predict if it | :44:28. | :44:30. | |
is enough. The Conservatives say they have had a positive campaign. | :44:31. | :44:39. | |
They say that Amber Rudd has a strong vote in the county areas. It | :44:40. | :44:44. | |
is more the town areas that tend to swing to Labour. The Liberal | :44:45. | :44:47. | |
Democrats say their vote has been squeezed to Labour and they're | :44:48. | :44:52. | |
worried about even losing that are deposit. Thank you. We have got two | :44:53. | :44:59. | |
results so far, both Labour holds in the north-east of England and more | :45:00. | :45:05. | |
results to come. But let's go live to Kirkwall, where the count is well | :45:06. | :45:10. | |
under way for the Orkney Shetland constituency and in fact we will go | :45:11. | :45:15. | |
to Hugh Williams there in a moment. That is where the former Scottish | :45:16. | :45:23. | |
Secretary Alistair Carmichael is defending the constituency. And | :45:24. | :45:29. | |
let's bring in Nichol Stephen, what are you hearing about that and other | :45:30. | :45:32. | |
seats where you hope to make progress? If the opinion poll, sorry | :45:33. | :45:38. | |
accurate, then we should win Orkney accurate, then we should win Orkney | :45:39. | :45:45. | |
Shetland. We did well in Orkney Shetland in the Scottish Parliament | :45:46. | :45:50. | |
elections and I would find it difficult to believe there could be | :45:51. | :45:55. | |
a problem there. What is more fascinating, is which of seats we | :45:56. | :46:02. | |
have held before, whether we can win some m or all of those back. I would | :46:03. | :46:08. | |
predict that we are going to do well tonight. It will be good news in | :46:09. | :46:13. | |
Scotland. Better news for the Liberal Democrat in Scotland than | :46:14. | :46:18. | |
the rest of the UK. But it is still too early to say. I should say that | :46:19. | :46:22. | |
on the business of working with other parties, which actually is | :46:23. | :46:26. | |
something that well you know you have shared power in what was then | :46:27. | :46:32. | |
the Scottish Executive and now the Scottish Government and the party | :46:33. | :46:36. | |
has shared power at Westminster the Conservatives, but tonight the | :46:37. | :46:39. | |
Liberal Democrats are tweeting to say no coalitions no, deals that, | :46:40. | :46:44. | |
position aparchltly -- apparently is firm. I was looking back at those | :46:45. | :46:50. | |
heady days when the hibds were in second place -- Liberal Democrats | :46:51. | :46:53. | |
were in second place in Scotland in election after election. It was | :46:54. | :46:57. | |
remarkable. Then the big change was the coalition with the Conservatives | :46:58. | :47:02. | |
and I think the experience you might recall, the coalitions in Scotland | :47:03. | :47:06. | |
with the Labour Party our performance from election to | :47:07. | :47:10. | |
election remained strong in the coalition years. So we didn't have | :47:11. | :47:15. | |
the same reversal. But there was a big reversal for the party in 2015 | :47:16. | :47:20. | |
and what happened as was clearly shown in Scotland as well. So we | :47:21. | :47:24. | |
have got to move back from that and move up. We started that process in | :47:25. | :47:27. | |
the Scottish Parliament elections, winning back seats, I think we will | :47:28. | :47:31. | |
win back more tonight. We will see how yo do. I'm not sure Renfrewshire | :47:32. | :47:37. | |
east is one constituency where you're in contention. That is being | :47:38. | :47:41. | |
defended by the SNP. That is unlikely. And what a picture. Is | :47:42. | :47:48. | |
that really Alex Salmond? Is that how we can expect him to appear. His | :47:49. | :47:55. | |
future career! On our screens later. Wow. That is the count in Aberdeen. | :47:56. | :48:02. | |
I was talking about refer Frewshire East where the SNP are defending a | :48:03. | :48:05. | |
strong challenge from the Conservatives, who took the | :48:06. | :48:10. | |
equivalent seat in the Holyrood election and a prominent figure | :48:11. | :48:16. | |
standing for the Labour Party in blare McDougall, who ran the Better | :48:17. | :48:22. | |
Together campaign. Let's get the details and go live to Suzanne Allan | :48:23. | :48:29. | |
in Clarkston. How are things happening. Welcome to the count for | :48:30. | :48:36. | |
Renfrewshire East, probably Scotland's only three-way marginal | :48:37. | :48:39. | |
between Labour, the SNP and the Tories. The incumbent is Kirsten | :48:40. | :48:46. | |
Oswald who won the seat two years ago from Jim Murphy, leader of the | :48:47. | :48:52. | |
Labour Party in Scotland, now he had held the seat since 1996. So he had | :48:53. | :48:58. | |
it for 18 years. He won it in that Labour landslide of Tony Blair's | :48:59. | :49:02. | |
Government in 1997. But the Tories have a good track record here. They | :49:03. | :49:09. | |
held the seat previously. Not as Renfrewshire East, but as Eastwood | :49:10. | :49:12. | |
so, they're feeling confident. Now, there are other factors at play | :49:13. | :49:22. | |
here. As you mentioned, Jackson Carlaw won the seat in 2016 and | :49:23. | :49:28. | |
blare McDougall, who won the Better Together campaign against | :49:29. | :49:30. | |
independence is the candidate for the Labour Party. Now, other things | :49:31. | :49:36. | |
to point out, the Scottish council elections last month, the | :49:37. | :49:38. | |
Conservatives were the largest party. But they don't form the | :49:39. | :49:43. | |
administration. It is a Labour/SNP coalition. This area was staunchly, | :49:44. | :49:53. | |
63%, against independence. 74% Remain in the recent referendum. | :49:54. | :49:58. | |
Now, can it will you from speaking to people, they say the prounion | :49:59. | :50:03. | |
parties have been leafletting like mad, especially the Conservatives, | :50:04. | :50:07. | |
they say they are up there every second day, a lot of canvassers, | :50:08. | :50:12. | |
Labour probably coming in second and a bit less from the SNP. But with | :50:13. | :50:18. | |
such a strong prounion vote, that bodes well for the SNP, because that | :50:19. | :50:23. | |
could split the vote. We spoke to all three parties earlier, none | :50:24. | :50:27. | |
would be drawn, it was a bit too early for them to say. But the most | :50:28. | :50:33. | |
confident did seem to be the SNP. Now, we can cross to Haddington and | :50:34. | :50:40. | |
Pauline McLean. We are not going do that just yet. We are seeing | :50:41. | :50:46. | |
pictures from Glenrothes and the counts in Fife. And a third | :50:47. | :50:58. | |
declaration from Sunderland Central. Labour's Julie Elliot holding | :50:59. | :50:59. | |
Sunderland Central. Ukip seems to be the main loser. The | :51:00. | :51:48. | |
Liberal Democrats up one. The swing in in Sunderland central is from | :51:49. | :51:53. | |
Labour to the Conservatives of 2.3%. That is consistent with the first | :51:54. | :51:58. | |
result, Brian Taylor. Two things to draw attention to, first, the Tory | :51:59. | :52:02. | |
result, the Tory vote, is better than the exit poll would suggest. | :52:03. | :52:07. | |
Labour is winning the seat, as they won in Newcastle, but the Tory vote | :52:08. | :52:11. | |
is holding up better than the exit poll would indicate. That is a | :52:12. | :52:17. | |
reversal. The Ukip votes, Sunderland famously set the trend for Brexit | :52:18. | :52:22. | |
for Britain voting as a whole to leave the EU and changed the nature | :52:23. | :52:29. | |
of British politics, Ukip are not the beneficiaries, perhaps voters | :52:30. | :52:33. | |
are saying, job done, or perhaps they're saying Ukip is in the past. | :52:34. | :52:38. | |
But even in Sunderland where it was a big Leave vote and they might vote | :52:39. | :52:45. | |
Ukip to hold the negotiator's feet to the fire. In central Central it | :52:46. | :52:55. | |
is 14.3 off and down in Houghton down. Neil Hamilton who leads Ukip | :52:56. | :53:04. | |
in the Welsh Assembly he has rather understatingly the party's vote is | :53:05. | :53:08. | |
being squeezed. That is how he is putting it. It is a pretty big | :53:09. | :53:17. | |
squeeze so far. I promised news from the nielss and Hugh -- Northern | :53:18. | :53:24. | |
Isles and hue Williams is there. What you tell us. If you want to | :53:25. | :53:30. | |
understand this constituency perhaps we shouldn't be in the magnificent | :53:31. | :53:38. | |
facilities at the school, but at the Haar pour sfrooet, where -- harbour | :53:39. | :53:43. | |
Street where work started on a new sea wall and flood defence to | :53:44. | :53:48. | |
prevent Kirkwall from being inundated by storms. If you're a | :53:49. | :53:52. | |
Liberal Democrat supporters in the Orkney Shetland constituency, you | :53:53. | :53:55. | |
know only too well what that feels like. Two years ago, you were | :53:56. | :53:59. | |
watching the SNP vote creep higher and higher and higher and higher and | :54:00. | :54:05. | |
threatening to overwhelm Alistair Carmichael's majority. He hung on, | :54:06. | :54:13. | |
but only just by 817 votes. Considerably down by 9,000 votes on | :54:14. | :54:17. | |
the majority that he had won in 2010. So has that SNP surge | :54:18. | :54:23. | |
subsided? Perhaps as the exit poll is suggesting it is a bit. That is | :54:24. | :54:28. | |
an issue we will watch in seats around the country. There are | :54:29. | :54:32. | |
factors that make this count interesting, not least the court | :54:33. | :54:37. | |
case from 2015 about Alistair Carmichael's involvement in what | :54:38. | :54:45. | |
became known as French Gate. He leaked a memo that purported to | :54:46. | :54:49. | |
reveal the contents of a conversation between Nicola Sturgeon | :54:50. | :54:54. | |
after the French embarrass door. A group of constituents argued if | :54:55. | :54:58. | |
voters had known of his part in the authorising of the leaking of that | :54:59. | :55:05. | |
memo, he might not have won. So they called for result to be annulled. | :55:06. | :55:08. | |
They went to a special election court and judges there ruled clearly | :55:09. | :55:14. | |
that Mr Carmichael had lied. But they said, it had been a political | :55:15. | :55:19. | |
lie, not a false statement about his character or conduct. And that was | :55:20. | :55:25. | |
the strict test in law. So if you're an Alistair Carmichael fan, you say | :55:26. | :55:33. | |
your man won. If you're an opponent, you may say he won the court case, | :55:34. | :55:40. | |
but he wasn't vindicated. Alistair Carmichael will hope what happened | :55:41. | :55:43. | |
after that in the Holyrood vote where Tavish Scott and Liam McArthur | :55:44. | :55:49. | |
increased their vote was proof that the Liberal Democrat brand wasn't | :55:50. | :55:55. | |
damaged in this constituency. But Mr Carmichael's main rival for the | :55:56. | :56:01. | |
vote, for the position as MP for Orkney Shetland, is Miriam Brett | :56:02. | :56:06. | |
from the SNP. He is a Jung high-flyer in the party and she is | :56:07. | :56:09. | |
from Shetland and she plays the fiddle. Will all of that be enough | :56:10. | :56:17. | |
to guarantee her even more votes than the late Dena Ski got? And | :56:18. | :56:27. | |
there have been voters even member of other parties who have been | :56:28. | :56:30. | |
willing to lend the Liberal Democrats their support. Holding | :56:31. | :56:37. | |
tight to nurse for fear of finding something worse as the great | :56:38. | :56:46. | |
Hillaire Belloc put it. But there are signs that Conservatives might | :56:47. | :56:50. | |
be willing to vote Conservative and perhaps that is the knock on effect | :56:51. | :56:55. | |
of Ruth Davidson's stance that she and the Conservatives are the | :56:56. | :57:00. | |
guarantors of the union. This was one of the most no voting seats in | :57:01. | :57:05. | |
Scotland in the independence referendum and one of most Remain | :57:06. | :57:10. | |
voting seats in the Brexit vote. Hugh Williams live from Kirkwall. | :57:11. | :57:17. | |
And now to the election cafe. Lots to talk about. This election seemed | :57:18. | :57:22. | |
to start off about constitutional politics. Theresa May's desire to | :57:23. | :57:29. | |
shore up support for Brexit. How did it pan out over the campaign. Was it | :57:30. | :57:34. | |
about Brexit or independence? We have Jenny Davidson. What is your | :57:35. | :57:40. | |
thoughts? I think in Scotland the constitutional issues have been | :57:41. | :57:45. | |
bigger than in the UK. We saw domestic issues taking over in the | :57:46. | :57:50. | |
UK like the dementia tax and free school meals and the pensions and | :57:51. | :57:55. | |
winter fuel payments. These became the big issues. In Scotland although | :57:56. | :58:02. | |
the SNP's record has been brought up, the issues of of a second | :58:03. | :58:08. | |
independence referendum had fuelled a lot of if... If the poll is | :58:09. | :58:14. | |
correct and the SNP lose 22 seats, a lot of that I think has been to do | :58:15. | :58:19. | |
with people just being fed up with elections and referendums and not | :58:20. | :58:23. | |
ready to vote on that again. David Torrance, you have had a smile on | :58:24. | :58:27. | |
your face and even chuckling already. What about, is it Brexit or | :58:28. | :58:36. | |
indyref2 or another? There was a lot of absence of chat about Brexit, | :58:37. | :58:40. | |
that was the premise of the election being called. There was little | :58:41. | :58:44. | |
discussion of that. Of course, remember the whole point of this was | :58:45. | :58:49. | |
to boost the Prime Minister's authority, strengthen her hand going | :58:50. | :58:53. | |
into Brexit negotiations. If she ends up with a slight majority, her | :58:54. | :58:59. | |
authority is shot. Perhaps she will be saved by the sheer turmoil of | :59:00. | :59:04. | |
having a Tory leadership election before the negotiations start. But | :59:05. | :59:12. | |
she emerges weakened in Scotland and as has been said indyref2 was be big | :59:13. | :59:19. | |
dynamic. Most people found that in seats like Moray, where you would | :59:20. | :59:23. | |
expect Brexit to be a factor that again that was absent. | :59:24. | :59:31. | |
Was a too dominant in Scotland? There was a strong reaction against | :59:32. | :59:38. | |
that. -- was indyref2 dominant in Scotland? If these results are | :59:39. | :59:45. | |
correct and the exit poll is right, I think it is more to do with what | :59:46. | :59:49. | |
happened in the UK and why. Particularly with the Labour | :59:50. | :59:53. | |
manifesto which captured the imagination of many Scots who in the | :59:54. | :59:57. | |
past had been lending votes to the SNP who might have been Labour | :59:58. | :00:01. | |
voters in the past. Caused a lot of them to rethink their allegiance and | :00:02. | :00:05. | |
wondered whether it made sense to vote SNP from Westminster when the | :00:06. | :00:13. | |
SNP hasn't got a chance of becoming a government. I not vote for Labour | :00:14. | :00:16. | |
if they are in with a shout? That is only of that exit poll is correct. | :00:17. | :00:22. | |
We saw on social media a lot of people worked out and urging young | :00:23. | :00:27. | |
people to go and vote. That may well be what his fondness at the last | :00:28. | :00:32. | |
moment. It is not just us who have been caught short, the political | :00:33. | :00:37. | |
parties themselves didn't detect this was happening. If the SNP has | :00:38. | :00:46. | |
lost 22 seats, that'll be a very significant blow to Nicola Sturgeon. | :00:47. | :00:51. | |
The irony is she could end up having the balance of power in Westminster | :00:52. | :00:58. | |
at the same time. How did this play out in Scotland? I think it is true. | :00:59. | :01:05. | |
Talking to voters, it was clear that even now Brexit was an issue, | :01:06. | :01:10. | |
Scotland voted to remain, that was a weak remain vote and we can now see | :01:11. | :01:15. | |
that. The remain vote was nowhere near as strong across the United | :01:16. | :01:24. | |
Kingdom as he thought. 22% were solid remain. I would say the same | :01:25. | :01:30. | |
in Scotland. If you look back to this time last year, we were talking | :01:31. | :01:33. | |
about what this meant for Scottish independence. Some of us sitting | :01:34. | :01:38. | |
around this table were predicting a shift amongst middle class voters | :01:39. | :01:46. | |
who voted to remain switching to the SNP. We have almost seen the | :01:47. | :01:49. | |
opposite now. Almost certainly the SNP losing support in heartland | :01:50. | :01:54. | |
areas like Moray where there was a strong remain vote. They have lost | :01:55. | :02:02. | |
support amongst what would have been tend to voters. We've seen that | :02:03. | :02:06. | |
before hand. Constitutional politics have played out in strange and | :02:07. | :02:11. | |
unusual ways. Lots to talk about your. All about words and pictures. | :02:12. | :02:19. | |
What have you got for us? For most of the night I have been thinking | :02:20. | :02:24. | |
about Willie Rennie. Win or lose, he has probably had the most fun during | :02:25. | :02:32. | |
the campaign. I had him to chew on for a little bit. Then I thought | :02:33. | :02:36. | |
about risk because it looks like she might get a couple more seats. The | :02:37. | :02:43. | |
Tories might lose a bit of a majority downsize, but I think we | :02:44. | :02:48. | |
will never hear the end of it in First Minister's Questions. I was | :02:49. | :02:59. | |
thinking about Kezia Dugdale from Scottish Labour and how she might | :03:00. | :03:08. | |
take some of the credit. That's just my opinion. Join in the conversation | :03:09. | :03:16. | |
using our hash tag. We have another result to bring you from the | :03:17. | :03:20. | |
north-east of England. Newcastle East. Labour has held with Nick | :03:21. | :03:24. | |
Brown, very prominent figure in the Labour Party, with a significant | :03:25. | :03:30. | |
majority. The Conservatives are second. | :03:31. | :03:52. | |
Compared to two years ago, Labour are up 18%. | :03:53. | :04:07. | |
There is a swing from conservatives to Labour. The Conservatives have | :04:08. | :04:15. | |
held Swindon north. That's the swing from conservatives | :04:16. | :04:59. | |
to Labour in Swindon north. Let's cross live to Aberdeen and the | :05:00. | :05:09. | |
reporter. A little update. Gordon, Alex Salmond's constituency. It | :05:10. | :05:14. | |
might be getting interesting. The Conservatives are happy with what | :05:15. | :05:18. | |
they've seen from the early ballot boxes. So are the Lib Dems. That | :05:19. | :05:23. | |
could mean two things. The Conservatives could be doing really, | :05:24. | :05:27. | |
really well in Gordon. It could also mean that, as was predicted, strong | :05:28. | :05:34. | |
Lib Dem and Tory votes could split the vote and let Alex Salmond | :05:35. | :05:39. | |
through the middle. That's all we know at the moment. The | :05:40. | :05:42. | |
Conservatives are quite confident, as they are with Aberdeenshire west. | :05:43. | :05:52. | |
Also apparently quite confident about Aberdeenshire south. Let's | :05:53. | :05:56. | |
cross to Paisley and Fiona Walker. Things are going to night, the | :05:57. | :06:04. | |
atmosphere is changing. To begin with, everybody was talking about | :06:05. | :06:09. | |
Mhairi Black, the youngest MP retaining her seat. The exit poll | :06:10. | :06:18. | |
came in, in Paisley and Renfrewshire South, the exit poll suggested that | :06:19. | :06:24. | |
Labour would take it from the SNP. Very close indeed. That means that | :06:25. | :06:32. | |
we are watching these piles very closely. Behind me, Alison Dowling | :06:33. | :06:40. | |
for Labour and Mhairi Black for the SNP, those piles are going up neck | :06:41. | :06:45. | |
and neck. The observers around the room are watching closely and we | :06:46. | :06:52. | |
will be watching them closely for you as well. Thank you for the | :06:53. | :06:57. | |
update. I should say that David Mundell, the Conservative Scottish | :06:58. | :07:02. | |
Secretary, is defending his seat says he is optimistic. Optimistic | :07:03. | :07:06. | |
that a historic note is on the cards. He might be focusing | :07:07. | :07:12. | |
particularly on the south of Scotland. He doesn't tell us what he | :07:13. | :07:19. | |
thinks is going on in the rest of the country. We will continue to go | :07:20. | :07:24. | |
wrong the country and pick up all developments that we have. Shortly, | :07:25. | :07:31. | |
we will cross to Haddington for news of the East Lothian count. Let's | :07:32. | :07:37. | |
bring in the panel once again. Douglas Alexander, on Haddington | :07:38. | :07:44. | |
being the V Slovene, prior to the exit poll, that was really the one | :07:45. | :07:50. | |
seat that Labour was targeting and helping to pick up in Scotland. Has | :07:51. | :07:57. | |
that changed? Certainly, the evidence suggests that the work | :07:58. | :08:00. | |
we've done in others it across the country could deliver the seats | :08:01. | :08:07. | |
rather than simply cut majorities. If the exit poll proves to be | :08:08. | :08:14. | |
accurate, we will have exceeded, not just our own expectations, the | :08:15. | :08:16. | |
expectations of all commentators looking at the election. A proof | :08:17. | :08:26. | |
work with the other on the panel. What's the extent of Tory ambition | :08:27. | :08:32. | |
north of the border? There is no limit. We started... Alex Salmond's | :08:33. | :08:40. | |
seat? It's in play. It's looking close in Angus. These are seats that | :08:41. | :08:44. | |
the SNP have held with thumping majorities. A majority in prison | :08:45. | :08:54. | |
just shy of 10,000. If we were to potentially take Alex Salmond's | :08:55. | :08:59. | |
seat, the fact that spin discussed, shows how well the Conservatives | :09:00. | :09:03. | |
have done. -- a majority in Perth just shy 10,000. All sorts | :09:04. | :09:20. | |
of transport is being used to make sure that the votes are counted. | :09:21. | :09:26. | |
Let's get more from the East Lothian count, Labour will bring to win back | :09:27. | :09:30. | |
the seat and SNP defending. Pauline McLean. What are you hearing? As you | :09:31. | :09:40. | |
know, East Lothian has been seen as a microcosm of Scotland. Some in | :09:41. | :09:46. | |
different parts of it, a nuclear power station, a university, mining, | :09:47. | :09:52. | |
farming, fishing. You can imagine the range of issues and opinions. | :09:53. | :09:58. | |
SNP's George Kerrigan took the seat two years ago, it was until then a | :09:59. | :10:07. | |
Labour seat dating back until it was created three decades before. They | :10:08. | :10:14. | |
really believe that they have a chance, Labour, Kezia Dugdale has | :10:15. | :10:19. | |
been here. She's been here three times for visits. We are noticing | :10:20. | :10:22. | |
denied that there is a sizeable Labour presence. -- we are noticing | :10:23. | :10:30. | |
tonight that there is a sizeable Labour presence. They haven't said | :10:31. | :10:33. | |
anything officially but we have seen them around and they believe they | :10:34. | :10:38. | |
are in with a chance. He mentioned earlier about the constitution. In | :10:39. | :10:43. | |
terms of local campaigning, although East Lothian had one of the highest | :10:44. | :10:48. | |
no votes in Scotland, the issues talked about our more about | :10:49. | :10:53. | |
transport, schools, things that mean things to local people and less so | :10:54. | :10:58. | |
about the constitution. There is only one count, only one seat to be | :10:59. | :11:06. | |
declared. The count, as you can see behind me, is well underway. Talking | :11:07. | :11:11. | |
to the returning officer, Andrew you heard it from other returning | :11:12. | :11:16. | |
officers, the getting so used to it, the routine, there been so many | :11:17. | :11:23. | |
elections recently. They are going as quickly and efficiently as they | :11:24. | :11:27. | |
can. Thanks, pulling. Let's go to Dunbartonshire East. Jamie McCart in | :11:28. | :11:36. | |
Bishopbriggs. -- Jamie McIvor. It's certainly getting interesting. The | :11:37. | :11:46. | |
SNP has a wafer thin majority here in Scottish terms. Also, the MP is | :11:47. | :11:52. | |
one of the highest profile from the class of 2015. He used to present a | :11:53. | :12:00. | |
TV programme for teenagers. It looks as though his future as an MP he is | :12:01. | :12:08. | |
open to question. I've spoken to some Lib Dems that they feel are | :12:09. | :12:15. | |
cautiously optimistic that Jo Swinson has one. Some conservative | :12:16. | :12:19. | |
activists have said they would say they are 100% sure that Jo Swinson | :12:20. | :12:24. | |
has one. Certainly, it looks interesting here. Things can change | :12:25. | :12:32. | |
between now and the declaration. We are expecting an exciting culture. | :12:33. | :12:36. | |
As things stand, it looks as though this got mighty on fully paid. -- | :12:37. | :12:45. | |
might be on a Matt Kuchar. Let's cross the Jackie Bird. We are | :12:46. | :12:53. | |
expecting the first Scottish seat in the small avarice. Last time, it | :12:54. | :13:03. | |
was, ... They are analysing the share and these things. A handful of | :13:04. | :13:09. | |
seats have been declared sufferer. All holds for Labour. And the | :13:10. | :13:19. | |
Conservatives in England. The exit poll has declared some wins for | :13:20. | :13:27. | |
Labour. It doesn't take in consideration the postal votes. It | :13:28. | :13:34. | |
looks like turnout is up by about 5-6%. How does that compare with | :13:35. | :13:40. | |
recent elections? There have been a view. Turnout in Scotland hit a | :13:41. | :13:46. | |
record high, 2014, the independence referendum. The following year, the | :13:47. | :13:57. | |
general election. UK figure was 66% and in Scotland, feelings run high | :13:58. | :14:05. | |
and it was 71%. 2016, the Holyrood vote, turnout went down. 55%. The | :14:06. | :14:11. | |
highest vote in any Scottish election since the first. 2016, 67 | :14:12. | :14:19. | |
as then voted. The EU referendum. The figure in the UK was higher at | :14:20. | :14:26. | |
72. The Scottish Council elections, down to just under 50%. A quick look | :14:27. | :14:33. | |
at the newspapers. Only headlines. The Scottish Daily Mail says... The | :14:34. | :14:45. | |
Scotsman is questioning the Prime Minister's future. Mayhem sums up | :14:46. | :14:54. | |
the outcome of the exit poll. Ukip have fallen substantially in seats | :14:55. | :15:01. | |
sufferer. He accuses Theresa May of jeopardising Brexit. Let's go to | :15:02. | :15:11. | |
Jeanne Freeman with us for the SNP tonight. What do you from colleagues | :15:12. | :15:15. | |
around the country? Not that much different from what you're reporting | :15:16. | :15:20. | |
on it. There are some cards which are tight. I understand that in | :15:21. | :15:29. | |
Hannah Bardell's constituency in the Livingston that we are ahead. Also | :15:30. | :15:40. | |
in that, logged in. In some councils, as the piles mount up, it | :15:41. | :15:47. | |
looks tight in some places and OK in others. We just have to wait and | :15:48. | :15:52. | |
see. What would your best guess be for a total number of SNP seats? I'm | :15:53. | :16:01. | |
not going to start giving you numbers, I do think the SNP will win | :16:02. | :16:07. | |
a majority of seats. I think that'll be a good result for us and will see | :16:08. | :16:13. | |
a great deal about the strength of our party. Our role in any future | :16:14. | :16:19. | |
Brexit talks for Scotland, it is critical that Scotland is under. | :16:20. | :16:25. | |
Let's bring in the new member in the political panel. The former First | :16:26. | :16:29. | |
Minister of Scotland. How do you see this night shaping up? First of all, | :16:30. | :16:36. | |
the exit poll has given a remarkable course to the whole exercise. | :16:37. | :16:40. | |
Against predictions, it doesn't seem to be working out into reason's | :16:41. | :16:44. | |
style. I'm impressed with two things. There's no doubt that the | :16:45. | :16:51. | |
Labour Party manifesto started to make an impact. That's been | :16:52. | :16:55. | |
reflected in the early result. I'm pleased that the Brexit mania and | :16:56. | :16:58. | |
the rest of the Conservative Party to go for maybe a hard Brexit may | :16:59. | :17:04. | |
have been checked. It's early but I take comfort out of both issues. | :17:05. | :17:09. | |
Also remarkable, the predictions in Scotland seem remarkable relative to | :17:10. | :17:19. | |
the polls taken. The whole result, if it carries on as it is, Scotland | :17:20. | :17:25. | |
may be in a state of flux and Britain, too. Handing over both, | :17:26. | :17:31. | |
Britain and Scotland, the whole question of Brexit. -- hanging over | :17:32. | :17:37. | |
both. A startling night and something for all parties. Do you | :17:38. | :17:41. | |
detect a Labour comeback in Scotland? My oppression is that, it | :17:42. | :17:49. | |
depends on seat, -- my prediction is that it depends on seats. The | :17:50. | :17:55. | |
Conservative campaign was negative. That was their intention. Whether | :17:56. | :17:59. | |
you like Jeremy Corbyn or not, the manifesto make an impact. I suspect | :18:00. | :18:08. | |
that north of the border it hid some Labour people. We don't know until | :18:09. | :18:12. | |
still receive the final Scottish results. -- north of the border it | :18:13. | :18:19. | |
hit some Labour people. It is the smallest electorate in the UK, in | :18:20. | :18:27. | |
the Western Isles, they managed to give us a result fairly early in the | :18:28. | :18:33. | |
course of the election campaign. Murdo Fraser, we've been talking | :18:34. | :18:40. | |
about the differences in both the campaign and the outcome potentially | :18:41. | :18:45. | |
in Scotland compared to other parts of the UK. What is your sense, at | :18:46. | :18:50. | |
this stage, of the decision that Theresa May took to call a snap | :18:51. | :18:55. | |
election? Was it the right thing to do? You have to remember that | :18:56. | :19:00. | |
Theresa May was under a lot of pressure. Nicola Sturgeon and others | :19:01. | :19:04. | |
said that she doesn't have a mandate to be Prime Minister. They | :19:05. | :19:09. | |
criticised when called a general election to get precise that magic. | :19:10. | :19:13. | |
We have to see what the results are. We have to see what the results are. | :19:14. | :19:19. | |
-- to get that mandate. You can't write a review of a book until you | :19:20. | :19:23. | |
naughty last chapter. Let's wait and see what the results. -- until you | :19:24. | :19:29. | |
naughty last at chapter. It's interesting that the exit polls | :19:30. | :19:33. | |
haven't reflected the actual results so far. | :19:34. | :19:40. | |
The Maidenhead. The right that some of the early results suggest that | :19:41. | :19:53. | |
the exit poll is over estimating the Labour Party vote, that some of them | :19:54. | :19:59. | |
suggest it is underestimating the Labour Party vote. It is not yet a | :20:00. | :20:05. | |
clear pattern, we only have a handful of constituencies, it is | :20:06. | :20:08. | |
suggesting a pattern but it is not clear. Seven declarations. Turnout | :20:09. | :20:16. | |
is up in every one of them. 4-5 points. Newcastle East shows a | :20:17. | :20:24. | |
higher Labour votes than the exit poll would suggest, but Sunderland, | :20:25. | :20:34. | |
the Labour Party are up but so are the Tories. Ukip are collapsing, | :20:35. | :20:41. | |
they are down 12-15 points. That matters in the north west of England | :20:42. | :20:46. | |
and in the Midlands, where seats could be determined by whether the | :20:47. | :20:51. | |
Ukip bulk lapses, does it collapsed to the Conservatives sold in a | :20:52. | :20:57. | |
disbar 's way. -- collapsed to the Conservatives or in a more dispersed | :20:58. | :21:05. | |
way. Tonight we will see the outcome of some local battles fought across | :21:06. | :21:10. | |
the country. Each constituency is unique so many crude liver and | :21:11. | :21:16. | |
upset. So we can take a trip around Scotland. 30 years ago, Morey was a | :21:17. | :21:29. | |
Tory heartland but now Angus Robertson has a real fight on his | :21:30. | :21:33. | |
hands, the Conservatives are on the rise. Most of the voters here | :21:34. | :21:40. | |
rejected Scottish independence and the Brexit campaign performed more | :21:41. | :21:49. | |
strongly in Morey than anywhere else in Scotland. -- Moray. In Edinburgh | :21:50. | :21:56. | |
South, this is Labour's only seat in Scotland. Ian Murray was the sole | :21:57. | :22:04. | |
survivor two years ago. The SNP triumphant last time around, can | :22:05. | :22:08. | |
they finish the job and as Tim? In the Scottish Borders, Berwickshire, | :22:09. | :22:14. | |
Roxburgh and Selkirk, a beautiful part of the countryside. An | :22:15. | :22:21. | |
intriguing battle. This used to be a Liberal stronghold with the Tories | :22:22. | :22:26. | |
at their heels, but two years ago the Liberal vote collapsed. There | :22:27. | :22:32. | |
were just 300 votes in it last time. Will a Lib Dem comeback squeeze the | :22:33. | :22:41. | |
SNP? It is all to play for. In west Central Scotland East | :22:42. | :22:47. | |
Dunbartonshire, there are the wealthy Glasgow suburbs of milk guy | :22:48. | :22:51. | |
and they spend. The Lib Dems held this for a decade before they were | :22:52. | :22:56. | |
swept away two years ago. The selection sees a repeat of that | :22:57. | :23:04. | |
contest. Jo Swinson aims to defeat John Nicholson of the SNP. She wants | :23:05. | :23:10. | |
to return and he wants to stay. North and east we can look at a | :23:11. | :23:16. | |
tough fight in Aberdeen South, containing some of Scotland's | :23:17. | :23:20. | |
wealthiest neighbourhoods. But its fortunes have changed with the price | :23:21. | :23:26. | |
of oil. The SNP are now facing a huge challenge from the | :23:27. | :23:31. | |
Conservatives, who need a 7-.5% swing to take the seat and write a | :23:32. | :23:37. | |
new chapter in Scottish politics. We will be watching to see that happens | :23:38. | :23:43. | |
here and across the country. Now to Perth and an update from there. We | :23:44. | :23:49. | |
have just had the turnout figure here and it is impressive, but still | :23:50. | :23:59. | |
down from 2015 where 74% turned out. BBC projections are showing a 99% | :24:00. | :24:05. | |
chance of Iain Duncan overturning the SNP and his 10,000 majority | :24:06. | :24:11. | |
here. The Conservatives do not believe that figure is accurate, | :24:12. | :24:15. | |
neither side is prepared to call it at the moment. John Swinney has been | :24:16. | :24:23. | |
looking rather glum as he walks around the sports centre. It is | :24:24. | :24:28. | |
difficult to tell if that is due to the overall SNP pitcher or just the | :24:29. | :24:35. | |
seat. We are expecting a declaration here at TV-am which is earlier than | :24:36. | :24:41. | |
we had thought. I will hold you to that. One of the MSPs representing | :24:42. | :24:53. | |
that part of the country has joined us, from the Conservatives. Are you | :24:54. | :24:59. | |
optimistic for a win there are? It has been a very good campaign in | :25:00. | :25:05. | |
that seat and we are quietly optimistic. If that is how it turns | :25:06. | :25:11. | |
out, Jean Freeman, what would be your explanation for one of your | :25:12. | :25:14. | |
most established Members of Parliament losing his seat? In that | :25:15. | :25:25. | |
constituency the Tory narrative in Scotland as they sought to frame it | :25:26. | :25:30. | |
was around there being the prospect for a second independence | :25:31. | :25:35. | |
referendum, which is not true. That seems to have gained some traction | :25:36. | :25:39. | |
there and people wanted to vote on those terms. If that explains the | :25:40. | :25:46. | |
rise in Tory support in areas where you are head to head with them, is | :25:47. | :25:51. | |
there something else going on in areas where we are hearing the | :25:52. | :25:57. | |
Labour Party are picking up? It is interesting, the appeal seems to be | :25:58. | :26:03. | |
the radical nature of Jeremy Corbyn's manifesto. What is | :26:04. | :26:10. | |
interesting about that is that some of the radical things and that | :26:11. | :26:15. | |
manifesto are policies that the SNP are already enacting in Scotland, | :26:16. | :26:19. | |
like tuition fees and winter fuel allowance. Maybe that has had some | :26:20. | :26:27. | |
appeal to some people. We need to see how that pans out. There was a | :26:28. | :26:33. | |
period where the SNP campaign to the left of Labour, but at this election | :26:34. | :26:39. | |
Labour were further to the left. No, because what is in Labour's | :26:40. | :26:46. | |
manifesto are things that the SNP are already doing. He is also | :26:47. | :26:51. | |
talking about nationalising industries... Transport Minister has | :26:52. | :26:56. | |
already began those conversations in terms of the rail network in | :26:57. | :27:02. | |
Scotland. Not to nationalise it, to make it possible for a public sector | :27:03. | :27:08. | |
better... It is still about putting it into public sector hands. In many | :27:09. | :27:17. | |
areas where Jeremy Corbyn's pledges are there, they are already facts in | :27:18. | :27:23. | |
Scotland. I do not agree that his manifesto is left of the SNP because | :27:24. | :27:31. | |
we are already doing it. It has had an impact. Speaking to people | :27:32. | :27:37. | |
inside, there is no doubt, setting aside considerations of leadership, | :27:38. | :27:41. | |
there has been an impact with the manifesto. If the exit poll is | :27:42. | :27:46. | |
predicting the loss of 22 seats for the SNP, will that fault of the left | :27:47. | :27:53. | |
or the right? Will Labour take advantage of this? It could be that | :27:54. | :27:59. | |
the Lib Dems are going to get if you seats. That is a question I would | :28:00. | :28:04. | |
like to pose. The exit poll is being questioned but it is often accurate. | :28:05. | :28:10. | |
This question between left and right and the SNP and Labour, there are | :28:11. | :28:15. | |
things that Jeremy Corbyn has put in the manifesto that would never be in | :28:16. | :28:20. | |
an SNP manifesto. In terms of the bigger issues, the Post Office, | :28:21. | :28:28. | |
public ownership of the railways, these are common sense issues, | :28:29. | :28:32. | |
clamping down on utilities. That has had an impact. We cannot do it | :28:33. | :28:39. | |
because we do not have the powers. To be honest with you, there is a | :28:40. | :28:49. | |
bit of a myth that the SNP have an ideological grip on the left. I've | :28:50. | :28:55. | |
my a lot of what they have done, but Jeremy Corbyn has re-focused the | :28:56. | :28:58. | |
Labour Party to where it might have been in previous times. The Scottish | :28:59. | :29:05. | |
Labour Party does not support Jeremy Corbyn. I want to catch up with | :29:06. | :29:09. | |
fewer now and her guests in the election cafe. The exit poll has got | :29:10. | :29:17. | |
everyone talking here and if they were feeling sleepy before they are | :29:18. | :29:22. | |
now wide awake. We have a man who might be able to tell us how | :29:23. | :29:28. | |
accurate it is, he is from Ipsos Mori. How accurate do you think it | :29:29. | :29:36. | |
is? The truth is that we do not know how accurate it is at this stage, | :29:37. | :29:41. | |
but we do know it was done exactly the same way as in 2015 where it | :29:42. | :29:47. | |
turned out to be quite robust. In 2015 it's slightly undercooked the | :29:48. | :29:54. | |
Tories, they were predicted to be short of an overall majority which | :29:55. | :30:01. | |
they then just about got. It is a clear indication and I think the | :30:02. | :30:05. | |
confidence lies and the fact it was done the same as two years ago and | :30:06. | :30:10. | |
if you repeat something in the same way and it was accurate before, we | :30:11. | :30:15. | |
can have some confidence in it, I think. Has anything you have heard | :30:16. | :30:20. | |
tonight so far given you any doubts about its accuracy? I understand | :30:21. | :30:26. | |
there is an argument going on between panellists then in London, | :30:27. | :30:31. | |
but we do not have enough data yet coming in from the few declarations | :30:32. | :30:37. | |
that we have got, so we need to wait a little bit longer. The more data | :30:38. | :30:42. | |
out we have, the more confident we can be in it being accurate or | :30:43. | :30:49. | |
otherwise. Could you describe how it works? During the campaign we will | :30:50. | :30:59. | |
get numerous opinion polls that aim to find out what people will do on | :31:00. | :31:05. | |
Election Day, but with the exit poll we go to polling stations and we | :31:06. | :31:10. | |
question people about what they have just done rather than what they are | :31:11. | :31:16. | |
going to do. The other advantage it has is that we do not have to worry | :31:17. | :31:20. | |
about what turnout will be because these people have already voted. We | :31:21. | :31:28. | |
do not have to estimate what turnout will be across the country, we do | :31:29. | :31:33. | |
not need to worry about that because we are talking to people who have | :31:34. | :31:38. | |
already bolted. We have people at polling stations around the country | :31:39. | :31:42. | |
and they will be Aske and people to go away and replicate what they have | :31:43. | :31:48. | |
just done, it is like another private vote. You will hang people | :31:49. | :31:55. | |
are ballot paper the same as what they are just had and they will be | :31:56. | :32:00. | |
given the opportunity to replicate that. That is when the magic | :32:01. | :32:10. | |
happens. We will be back very soon. Someone who has been up and down the | :32:11. | :32:14. | |
highways of Scotland and has been on the fallen is with us. What are you | :32:15. | :32:19. | |
hearing on the ground? The Labour Party are sounding more optimistic | :32:20. | :32:23. | |
and they now think that at some point this evening we will that true | :32:24. | :32:30. | |
Mac new seats in Scotland. They are more optimistic than they were an | :32:31. | :32:36. | |
hour ago. -- they will win new seats in Scotland. Moray is another | :32:37. | :32:41. | |
fascinating seat. The Conservatives are hoping they can tap into a high | :32:42. | :32:47. | |
number of Leeds supporters there. It sounds like it is close and the | :32:48. | :32:52. | |
Tories think they are in with a chance. The Lib Dems are flagging up | :32:53. | :32:56. | |
Edinburgh Western East Dunbartonshire as seats where they | :32:57. | :33:00. | |
think they might be doing well, but it is very early. If you want to | :33:01. | :33:06. | |
hear about any of these things you can contact us using the hashtag | :33:07. | :33:11. | |
below. Turnout from Renfrewshire East is 76%. We are also hearing | :33:12. | :33:20. | |
news of possible recount in and right. We feature that constituency | :33:21. | :33:27. | |
earlier because that is where Amber Rudd is defending. We have been | :33:28. | :33:32. | |
talking about the Labour Party's hopes in Scotland, there were hoping | :33:33. | :33:38. | |
to hold the seat in Edinburgh South and perhaps pick up East Lothian. We | :33:39. | :33:45. | |
can go to Haddington and the MSP for East Lothian, Iain Gray. Is this a | :33:46. | :33:49. | |
Westminster seat you will be in tonight? You know what I am going to | :33:50. | :33:59. | |
say, it is too early to tell, we have only started counting the | :34:00. | :34:05. | |
votes. We have had a good Election Day, despite the rain. We are | :34:06. | :34:11. | |
confident that our boat has stayed with us and it has come out in good | :34:12. | :34:15. | |
numbers and we have to see if that isn't enough. One thing we are | :34:16. | :34:22. | |
certain of is that people in East Lothian are telling us they have had | :34:23. | :34:28. | |
enough of the SNP, even those that have been supporting them in recent | :34:29. | :34:33. | |
elections are fed up with the idea of a second referendum and they | :34:34. | :34:36. | |
believe Nicola Sturgeon should get on with her day job. If the exit | :34:37. | :34:43. | |
poll is correct, as I have heard, it will be a bad night for a Nicola | :34:44. | :34:48. | |
Sturgeon in Scotland and Ford to reason me. If we can contribute to | :34:49. | :34:54. | |
I'm hearing is that the party is confident, labour, that they will | :34:55. | :35:05. | |
win through rural seats in Scotland. It looks like the SNP still finishes | :35:06. | :35:10. | |
as the majority party after this election. If the SNP, I understand | :35:11. | :35:22. | |
the exit poll predicted that they might lose over 20 seats. That would | :35:23. | :35:27. | |
be a massive defeat for Nicola Sturgeon. I don't think she will be | :35:28. | :35:32. | |
able to dress that up in any shape or form. It means that her | :35:33. | :35:39. | |
relentless pursuer will of another independence referendum, using | :35:40. | :35:44. | |
Brexit as the disc is, has been roundly rejected. -- using Brexit as | :35:45. | :35:51. | |
the excuse. If you're on the way up in Scotland, is that as a result of | :35:52. | :35:59. | |
Jeremy Corbyn and his manifesto? Or is it as the result of the work of | :36:00. | :36:07. | |
Kezia Dugdale? The manifesto is interesting. A lot of the ideas were | :36:08. | :36:14. | |
in our Holyrood manifesto a few years ago. It's proven popular. The | :36:15. | :36:22. | |
campaign that Jeremy Corbyn has fought has had benefits, without | :36:23. | :36:29. | |
doubt, in East Lothian. Kezia Dugdale has been in East Lothian on | :36:30. | :36:34. | |
a number of occasions and earlier today was part of our team's going | :36:35. | :36:43. | |
out to get Labour voters out to vote. That has helped to preserve | :36:44. | :36:48. | |
vote up tonight. Hopefully far enough to helpers gained East East | :36:49. | :36:56. | |
Lothian. Reviewing from Nigel Farage. He says that if you believe | :36:57. | :37:00. | |
the exit polls, Brexit is under threat. Evidence that Ukip itself is | :37:01. | :37:08. | |
under threat to some extent. Thanks very much. Let's look at for | :37:09. | :37:12. | |
constituencies. Three from the north-east. This is where results | :37:13. | :37:21. | |
are declaring first. Sunderland South, Labour victory. You wouldn't | :37:22. | :37:26. | |
expect anything else there. The Conservatives are also up 11. Labour | :37:27. | :37:35. | |
are up for -- are up for Mac. You could do 16%. This area voted | :37:36. | :37:42. | |
heavily leave in the Brexit referendum. Sunderland Central, | :37:43. | :37:57. | |
let's take a look at the change. Conservatives upturn. Ukip down 14 | :37:58. | :38:07. | |
points. Newcastle upon Tyne Central, the same pattern. You understand why | :38:08. | :38:11. | |
Nigel Farage is making these comments. Labour victory. Just to | :38:12. | :38:23. | |
prove it isn't just in the north-east. Let's switch to Swindon | :38:24. | :38:28. | |
North. A Conservative seat. Conservative victory in Swindon. | :38:29. | :38:32. | |
They hold this seat. Here is the change. Tories up three, Labour up | :38:33. | :38:41. | |
11 and Ukip down 12. The Ukip analysis placed an ad is that | :38:42. | :38:49. | |
perhaps it's job done. -- placed on that is that perhaps. They took the | :38:50. | :38:54. | |
victory in Brexit, so they would see, they no longer need a victory. | :38:55. | :38:59. | |
Nigel Farage's point is that if Theresa May said this would give us | :39:00. | :39:05. | |
a mandate for negotiations and to drive the Brexit through a sceptical | :39:06. | :39:12. | |
comments. Perhaps those two reasons for calling the election have had | :39:13. | :39:22. | |
the fleet carried from under them. Let's bring you another couple of | :39:23. | :39:27. | |
comments from around the country. Bishoo from the BBC's political | :39:28. | :39:32. | |
editor -- we are hearing from the BBC's political editor that the | :39:33. | :39:40. | |
candidate in Battersea is going to lose out. That would be two UK | :39:41. | :39:45. | |
Government ministers losing their seats. Let's bring in the political | :39:46. | :39:54. | |
panel. Let's hear from the Lib Dem. What are you picking up? I'm picking | :39:55. | :39:58. | |
up that in Scotland the results are close. However dress it up, the fact | :39:59. | :40:06. | |
that they are likely to lose a significant number of seats is | :40:07. | :40:10. | |
hugely bad news. However they dress it up, Nicola Sturgeon did decide to | :40:11. | :40:16. | |
launch indyref2 just before the unexpected election was called. That | :40:17. | :40:20. | |
was her time of choosing. It has been a big issue in constituencies | :40:21. | :40:26. | |
when the Lib Dems had been fighting to take back our seats. I will | :40:27. | :40:35. | |
report -- the whispers are either at prounion parties might have | :40:36. | :40:39. | |
cancelled each other out. This is a real concern. The Conservatives, as | :40:40. | :40:45. | |
you know, have been buoyant throughout the campaign. Sucking up | :40:46. | :40:46. | |
how well they are doing in Scotland. how well they are doing in Scotland. | :40:47. | :40:53. | |
-- talking up how well. They have been talking about seats they have a | :40:54. | :40:59. | |
good chance and also places where Lib Dems are second place. It would | :41:00. | :41:06. | |
be a huge tragedy if both Conservative and Lib Dems went up | :41:07. | :41:09. | |
but if neither places they had enough to defeat the SNP. Let's | :41:10. | :41:16. | |
cross the Darlington. -- to Darlington. Hello. This is very | :41:17. | :41:26. | |
close to declaring their result. This has been a safe Labour seat for | :41:27. | :41:32. | |
many years. It's been one that the Conservative Party has been | :41:33. | :41:38. | |
targeting. Close any 2015 election. Jennifer Chapman won with 43% of the | :41:39. | :41:44. | |
share. 35% to the Conservative candidate. It's looking to be a | :41:45. | :41:50. | |
Labour hold if you base it on the ballot papers. The Red Wings versus | :41:51. | :41:58. | |
the blue and white. Looking like a Labour seat. Interesting story in | :41:59. | :42:04. | |
the north-east. Turnout is up 5%. You see that story across the | :42:05. | :42:08. | |
north-east and. This is an area that has overwhelmingly footed to leave | :42:09. | :42:14. | |
the EU. Lots of people wondering what that will mean and how that | :42:15. | :42:17. | |
will play out in the general election. Lots of people working in | :42:18. | :42:24. | |
the public sector here. In this constituency, into 7% of people are | :42:25. | :42:28. | |
employed in the public sector. The Labour manifesto to get rid of the | :42:29. | :42:34. | |
cap on pay rises for public sector workers will have influenced how | :42:35. | :42:39. | |
people have voted. We haven't had the official confirmation but it | :42:40. | :42:43. | |
looks like a Labour hold. Thanks for that. Let's go directly to | :42:44. | :42:50. | |
Stornoway. The Western Isles constituency. Instruments sing | :42:51. | :42:57. | |
noises. Let's say good to Andy Smith on us. -- interesting noises. From | :42:58. | :43:07. | |
the Western Isles, it is turning into in interesting contest. Plus | :43:08. | :43:13. | |
ten, Angus MacNeil had a majority of 4100. This time it's getting quite | :43:14. | :43:18. | |
close. Even SNP supporters are saying it's getting too close to | :43:19. | :43:22. | |
call. It could be written in the hundreds. It's interesting, five | :43:23. | :43:33. | |
candidates, Tory, Lib Dem and the Scottish Christian Party. Since the | :43:34. | :43:38. | |
1970s, it has been a two horse race between Labour and SNP have held it | :43:39. | :43:46. | |
with anger spread when you'll -- since Angus -- with anger spreading | :43:47. | :43:52. | |
McNeill. A lot of worried looks from the SNP. With the bulk of the faults | :43:53. | :43:59. | |
Mac being counted, they are saying it could be within the hundreds. -- | :44:00. | :44:07. | |
the bulk of the votes being counted. Only one, the votes came ashore on a | :44:08. | :44:20. | |
risky -- on Eriskay. The bundle for sure later but at the moment, it | :44:21. | :44:24. | |
looks like it would be an interesting night in Stornoway. | :44:25. | :44:32. | |
Kindly confirm the timescale? We think that the last boxes will be in | :44:33. | :44:40. | |
Stornoway airport, being blown up from the Benbecula. We should have | :44:41. | :44:56. | |
the result hopefully about 2am, unless there is a recount. Thank you | :44:57. | :45:02. | |
very much. It could be an interesting night in the Western | :45:03. | :45:07. | |
Isles. We are hearing that the declaration from Darlington might | :45:08. | :45:12. | |
come in the next 20 minutes or so. That will be one to watch. If Labour | :45:13. | :45:20. | |
holding in Darlington, it looks like it could be a very good night for | :45:21. | :45:25. | |
them. Anthony McDonald called in Middlesbrough. The results are | :45:26. | :45:32. | |
coming a bit faster. -- Anthony McDonald holding in Middlesbrough. | :45:33. | :45:38. | |
Let's cross teasel bright. -- crisscrossed to East Kilbride, | :45:39. | :45:44. | |
Strathaven and Lesmahagow. It might be a bit early for that actually. | :45:45. | :45:52. | |
Brian Taylor, your thoughts. Darlington is intriguing. It was a | :45:53. | :45:59. | |
Labour feed but it was Michael Fallon's suit. It's been a | :46:00. | :46:05. | |
Conservative battle ground of late. If Labour are entrenched there, it | :46:06. | :46:10. | |
tells us that Labour are entrenched there. It doesn't tell us much more | :46:11. | :46:17. | |
about the UK. Who is the more socialist of the two? A line | :46:18. | :46:24. | |
creeping into the SNP narrative recently. It was used by Nicola | :46:25. | :46:32. | |
Sturgeon. She said that of the Jeremy Corbyn manifested, it has | :46:33. | :46:40. | |
stolen for the SNP. If the vote for the SNP, he vote for people that | :46:41. | :46:49. | |
will implement the manifesto, not -- her implication being that Kezia | :46:50. | :46:56. | |
Dugdale and the Scottish Labour wouldn't implement it. He also had | :46:57. | :47:02. | |
the SNP debate, she targeted labour directly in terms of the business of | :47:03. | :47:06. | |
whether or not Kezia Dugdale had been vacillating over the subject of | :47:07. | :47:12. | |
a referendum. The SNP's objective throughout the last decade has been | :47:13. | :47:16. | |
not just the counter or take on the Labour Party but to supplant them. | :47:17. | :47:21. | |
Some results from England. Middlesbrough. Let's start with | :47:22. | :47:27. | |
Broxburn, in fact. A Conservative hold. | :47:28. | :47:53. | |
Let's see if we can get a breakdown of that result. King pair to what | :47:54. | :48:06. | |
happened two years ago, the Tories are up six, Labour ten and you keep | :48:07. | :48:14. | |
losing 16%. -- and you keep losing 16%. | :48:15. | :48:25. | |
How as the pitcher is shaping up across the country? It is mostly | :48:26. | :49:27. | |
grey because most suits have not declared. There are only a small | :49:28. | :49:37. | |
number of declarations there. And the north of England the dots are at | :49:38. | :49:43. | |
Labour red. There are no dots in Scotland because we are waiting for | :49:44. | :49:48. | |
the first declaration. This takes every constituency and makes | :49:49. | :49:53. | |
everyone of them the same size. The UK does not look like it normally | :49:54. | :49:58. | |
does, but it allows us to get a sense of the developing pitcher. We | :49:59. | :50:05. | |
can catch up with the owner who is in our election cafe. How many cups | :50:06. | :50:10. | |
of Coffey have you had? I have had four cups. There are plenty of | :50:11. | :50:17. | |
things to talk about here. We have been thinking about the moments of | :50:18. | :50:23. | |
the campaign. We had the girl and boy jobs and running through the | :50:24. | :50:30. | |
fields of wheat. We had a TV debate without the main parties and photo | :50:31. | :50:35. | |
shoots with farm animals. To talk about the moments in this campaign, | :50:36. | :50:43. | |
what were your best bet is? It is difficult to see what has been the | :50:44. | :50:49. | |
best, it has been tepid and carefully managed, which is why in | :50:50. | :50:57. | |
terms of best bits it was the moments where the politicians looked | :50:58. | :51:01. | |
uncomfortable, because they were too comfortable during the campaign. So | :51:02. | :51:09. | |
for me, the leaders' debates, their interaction with the audience, this | :51:10. | :51:14. | |
campaign has been about members of the public who have managed to get | :51:15. | :51:19. | |
politicians under scrutiny. Also the boy and girl jobs and the robotic | :51:20. | :51:24. | |
moments running through the fields of hay, everyone was asking what was | :51:25. | :51:32. | |
going on. Whether any memorable moments in this campaign? The best | :51:33. | :51:39. | |
bet was the end of the campaign. It is the worst general election I can | :51:40. | :51:44. | |
recall covering. The most significant moment was the dawning | :51:45. | :51:49. | |
that Theresa May was an average politician. Everyone thought that | :51:50. | :51:56. | |
she was good to have a big majority, but she could not get out of first | :51:57. | :52:03. | |
gear and Jeremy Corbyn made himself look very good. She is the story of | :52:04. | :52:10. | |
this campaign. She will probably pay with her job. Surprising exit poll | :52:11. | :52:15. | |
results. I'd you picking up anything at this point? It is broadly in line | :52:16. | :52:25. | |
with what we expected. 22 SNP losses in Scotland might be more than what | :52:26. | :52:31. | |
happens in the end. Some people are expecting 15-20, but it is a bad | :52:32. | :52:36. | |
night for the SNP and a dreadful night for Theresa May. Were there | :52:37. | :52:47. | |
any memorable moments for you? There were people turning white in the | :52:48. | :52:52. | |
spin room when the exit poll dropped, from every party. The SNP | :52:53. | :53:01. | |
turned white. A Labour person who is no fan of Jeremy Corbyn also. I | :53:02. | :53:10. | |
disagree with Paul and Kirsty, I was struck by the energy and the surge | :53:11. | :53:16. | |
in Jeremy Corbyn's campaign and how Theresa May started to fall apart, | :53:17. | :53:22. | |
she gave some terrible TV interviews. It was probably the last | :53:23. | :53:33. | |
thing she wanted to do, faces television camera. You are former | :53:34. | :53:38. | |
spin doctor for the Labour Party, what are your thoughts? Labour | :53:39. | :53:44. | |
people are astonished. For Scottish Labour it is a boost, but I still | :53:45. | :53:51. | |
don't quite believe it. I want to see these results and hear the | :53:52. | :53:56. | |
declarations, but it is a Jeremy Corbyn bones that has given Labour | :53:57. | :54:00. | |
the left, not the Scottish Labour campaign. We will have a camera on | :54:01. | :54:09. | |
your faces when the results come in. Someone who knows the north-east of | :54:10. | :54:16. | |
Scotland well, that is an interesting part of the country. | :54:17. | :54:21. | |
What are you hearing? It looks like it is going to go Tory. Some of the | :54:22. | :54:29. | |
more interesting constituencies have been Aberdeen South. From what we | :54:30. | :54:35. | |
are hearing, the Jeremy Corbyn bones might save his seat. Angus Robertson | :54:36. | :54:43. | |
up in Moray, that vote is on a knife edge. There is a possibility of the | :54:44. | :54:48. | |
Tories getting in. Equally in Gordon, I don't think Alex Salmond | :54:49. | :54:53. | |
will be in trouble. We have got results. The number of books given | :54:54. | :55:03. | |
to each candidate was as follows. The UK Independence Party 1180. | :55:04. | :55:15. | |
Jenny Chapman, the Labour Party, ten to 2681. | :55:16. | :55:20. | |
APPLAUSE . And Marie Carrie, Liberal | :55:21. | :55:47. | |
Democrat, 1031. The Conservative Party, 19401. The Green Party | :55:48. | :56:01. | |
candidate, 524. Thereby give public notice the can Chapman -- give | :56:02. | :56:08. | |
public notice that Jenny Chapman is elected for this constituency. | :56:09. | :56:19. | |
Labour hold Darlington, Jenny Chapman with 22681 folks. This was a | :56:20. | :56:26. | |
seat where the Conservatives were challenging hard. Kevin with 1180. | :56:27. | :56:40. | |
The Green Party interest. It turned out of 68%. This is the vote share. | :56:41. | :56:51. | |
A battle between the two big parties and the others were tiny shares of | :56:52. | :56:58. | |
the vote. Labour are up eight last time, so are the Conservatives, Ukip | :56:59. | :57:06. | |
are down ten. Between the two big parties there is a very slight swing | :57:07. | :57:10. | |
from the Liberal party to the Conservatives, but both parties are | :57:11. | :57:20. | |
up significantly. The Liberal Democrats have been squeezed, the | :57:21. | :57:29. | |
vote is down 2.5, and the Ukip vote has disgraced to oblivion. This is a | :57:30. | :57:33. | |
pattern that is emerging in the north-east of England. There is a | :57:34. | :57:42. | |
Labour increase, a Conservative increase that is not aligned with | :57:43. | :57:46. | |
the exit poll, but we need to see if that is repeated in the two battle | :57:47. | :57:51. | |
grounds across the Midlands where seats will change hands. Are we | :57:52. | :57:57. | |
looking at a return to 2-party politics? Yes, in England. I think | :57:58. | :58:04. | |
we will see something different in Scotland. There is a collapsed in | :58:05. | :58:12. | |
the Ukip vote that seems to be sometimes splitting to Labour | :58:13. | :58:16. | |
sometimes to the Conservatives, sometimes even lately can | :58:17. | :58:21. | |
Darlington. What is striking is the extent to which the Liberal | :58:22. | :58:25. | |
Democrats are making no games are tall and sometimes they're losing | :58:26. | :58:30. | |
votes, and the Greens do not seem to be making any inroads either. I | :58:31. | :58:34. | |
expect to see something distinctive in Scotland. We can cross to Jackie | :58:35. | :58:40. | |
Bird for an update on the election headlines so far. Based on the exit | :58:41. | :58:50. | |
poll that we got earlier, there have been suggestions of a hung | :58:51. | :58:54. | |
Parliament. The last time there was a hung Parliament was in 1974 and | :58:55. | :59:00. | |
there was another election several months later. The possibility of a | :59:01. | :59:05. | |
hung Parliament has not been welcomed by Ken Clarke from the | :59:06. | :59:08. | |
Conservative Party. The worst outcome would be a hung Parliament. | :59:09. | :59:15. | |
The worst outcome for the United Kingdom would be a weak Government. | :59:16. | :59:22. | |
We have to see where we get to. The first Scottish result is imminent by | :59:23. | :59:28. | |
why we wait let us look at what the SNP are defending, 56 out of | :59:29. | :59:34. | |
Scotland's 59 constituencies. The exit poll put them on 34, a loss of | :59:35. | :59:41. | |
22, a lot of scepticism about the accuracy of that poll. We can look | :59:42. | :59:47. | |
at the three seats they did not win last time. David Mundell holds | :59:48. | :59:55. | |
Dumfries with a majority of just 798. It could be shaky because the | :59:56. | :59:59. | |
Scottish Greens are not standing there. If their votes go to the | :00:00. | :00:03. | |
Nationalists maybe that's it could fall. Edinburgh South, the Labour | :00:04. | :00:10. | |
Party's only Scottish MP, a majority of just over 2500. Will he benefit | :00:11. | :00:18. | |
from the Jeremy Corbyn bones? And there is a score to settle in Orkney | :00:19. | :00:26. | |
and Shetland, the only seat of the Liberal Democrats. Alistair | :00:27. | :00:28. | |
Carmichael had his troubles there over a leaked memo that ended in a | :00:29. | :00:33. | |
court battle. SNP supporters did not win that battle but they will be | :00:34. | :00:37. | |
hoping to beat him at the ballot box tonight. The daily record headline | :00:38. | :00:48. | |
now. This is The Times. Talking about the gamble of holding a snap | :00:49. | :00:53. | |
election to give her a 44 Brexit. Those the gauche Asians begin in ten | :00:54. | :01:00. | |
days. -- those negotiations will begin. We are still waiting for the | :01:01. | :01:09. | |
first Scottish declaration. We are very patient. We are alive in till | :01:10. | :01:18. | |
9am to make sure we have this election fully covered. We're going | :01:19. | :01:24. | |
to cross around the country for updates from our reporters who are | :01:25. | :01:29. | |
watching the votes stack up. We can start in Elgin for the Moray count. | :01:30. | :01:39. | |
I have been talking to party activists and this is a two horse | :01:40. | :01:46. | |
race in Moray. The SNP against the Conservatives. On paper this should | :01:47. | :01:51. | |
be easy for the SNP to hold, Angus Robertson is the leader in | :01:52. | :01:56. | |
Westminster and had a 9000 majority. But Hocking to people it is the | :01:57. | :02:02. | |
Conservatives who are smiling and the SNP by looking more worried. You | :02:03. | :02:08. | |
can probably see behind we were they are putting the verified papers. | :02:09. | :02:14. | |
That is unscientific at this stage cause there is a lot more to play | :02:15. | :02:19. | |
for and more to count and verify, but the votes are stacking up how | :02:20. | :02:25. | |
you can see this is a two horse race between Douglas Ross and Angus | :02:26. | :02:32. | |
Robertson, who has been the MP here since 2001. His is a scalp that the | :02:33. | :02:40. | |
Tories would love to take, one of their key seats they would like to | :02:41. | :02:46. | |
take, not because it is close but because they have been stung by the | :02:47. | :02:52. | |
affected this Angus Robertson in his criticism of Theresa May. If they | :02:53. | :02:58. | |
could do that that would be a major upset in a seat that the SNP have | :02:59. | :03:03. | |
held for many years. Angus Robertson, the party's reader in | :03:04. | :03:09. | |
Westminster and deputy leader as a whole, someone who has a very high | :03:10. | :03:15. | |
profile questioning the Prime Minister every week. This is a seat | :03:16. | :03:21. | |
the SNP should be holding, but the evidence in the way that the votes | :03:22. | :03:25. | |
are stacking up makes it appear quite close. Now we can cross to | :03:26. | :03:33. | |
Dingwall. Have you any update for us? | :03:34. | :03:44. | |
want to focus on the Golden Coast, the incumbent MP was Paul and there | :03:45. | :03:59. | |
have been following is owed between members of his piety. There have | :04:00. | :04:03. | |
been controversies over the stances he is taking on hunting, shooting | :04:04. | :04:09. | |
and fishing. Given it is the tenth most marginal in Scotland, there may | :04:10. | :04:17. | |
be a political obituary for him, or not. The whispers here are that the | :04:18. | :04:25. | |
Liberal Democrats, who came second last time, and the Conservatives are | :04:26. | :04:30. | |
concerned that they have cancelled each other out, that the prounion | :04:31. | :04:39. | |
parties have cancelled each other out, you do not need to win a | :04:40. | :04:43. | |
majority just need to be the biggest loser. He could afford to get less | :04:44. | :04:50. | |
if the other two parties have cancelled each other out. It is very | :04:51. | :04:57. | |
early and it is a situation where the only people who are convinced | :04:58. | :05:03. | |
that they have lost otherwise that are winning, but they don't know | :05:04. | :05:07. | |
that for sure yet. I think we will know for sure when my stomach starts | :05:08. | :05:16. | |
to rumble at the back of 4am or 5am in the morning. | :05:17. | :05:25. | |
New members of our panel. Ross Greer from the Scottish Green Party. Henry | :05:26. | :05:33. | |
McLeish from Labour. Liz Smith from the Conservatives. The new SNP | :05:34. | :05:42. | |
minister, Derek Mackay. The campaign manager, as well. If you lose up to | :05:43. | :05:48. | |
22 seat, it will all be your fault? If the exit polls are correct, that | :05:49. | :05:53. | |
still a good result. Building on the sixth seeds we had a three years | :05:54. | :05:59. | |
ago. That would still be a good result. Trying to repeat the success | :06:00. | :06:04. | |
of 2015 was going to be difficult. This was an election chosen by the | :06:05. | :06:12. | |
Prime Minister. You'll recognise the lady in the centre of those | :06:13. | :06:16. | |
pictures. The youngest MP in the last Parliament, Mhairi Black. | :06:17. | :06:24. | |
Looking happy, perhaps confident. She is defending the constituency in | :06:25. | :06:28. | |
Renfrewshire. A little while before they result from there. We heard | :06:29. | :06:33. | |
earlier, a bit closer perhaps than last time. It seems that it's not | :06:34. | :06:40. | |
just the Conservatives that put your party under pressure this election. | :06:41. | :06:45. | |
Not even just the Conservatives Lib Dems but can you confirm that there | :06:46. | :06:51. | |
are areas where it may be that Labour are making games? -- making | :06:52. | :06:57. | |
games? There's been an onslaught of all parties on the SNP. Evidence of | :06:58. | :07:02. | |
tactical voting. We've got a good and strong campaign. It looks like a | :07:03. | :07:08. | |
bad election for Theresa May. She Stornoway majority and it was an | :07:09. | :07:15. | |
election she chose to have. -- she's thrown away her majority. It's been | :07:16. | :07:19. | |
catastrophic. In terms of the Labour Party. Some thought that this would | :07:20. | :07:24. | |
hasten the departure of Jeremy Corbyn Arab books as this, if the | :07:25. | :07:33. | |
exit poll is correct, it looks like Jeremy Corbyn is here to stay. -- | :07:34. | :07:42. | |
Jeremy Corbyn and it looks as if. It is reckoned that the exit poll might | :07:43. | :07:49. | |
have underestimated the extent of Conservative support. We will see. | :07:50. | :07:58. | |
In the final days of the campaign, the First Minister started to turn | :07:59. | :08:02. | |
her fire on Labour. We view picking up this bounce and increase in | :08:03. | :08:14. | |
support? It was evidence that the Tory party had lost Mendham. To | :08:15. | :08:20. | |
reason they were struggling and not having a good campaign. -- Theresa | :08:21. | :08:26. | |
May were struggling. Labour were the beneficiaries of that. It appears | :08:27. | :08:29. | |
there may have been more support for the Labour Party that was | :08:30. | :08:33. | |
unexpected. We will see the distribution of votes in Scotland. | :08:34. | :08:39. | |
If we win and hold 34 seats, I would see that as a success. If it's a | :08:40. | :08:45. | |
majority of seats, it looks as if the Tories may well have lost their | :08:46. | :08:50. | |
majority across the UK. Liz Smith, if it turns out like that, or if the | :08:51. | :08:57. | |
position for Conservatives is a registered majority, could Theresa | :08:58. | :09:04. | |
May remain as Prime Minister? -- is a reduced majority. We can't say | :09:05. | :09:10. | |
that that is definitely going to happen. Some interesting results | :09:11. | :09:15. | |
coming through. It could well be that we have a majority at the end | :09:16. | :09:21. | |
of the night. In Scotland, I think there's been a different dynamic in | :09:22. | :09:30. | |
this collection. This has been an onslaught between unionist parties | :09:31. | :09:37. | |
against the Nationalists. That dynamic will play well for the | :09:38. | :09:42. | |
Conservatives in Scotland. Ruth Davidson has filed an excellent | :09:43. | :09:46. | |
campaign. She is articulated what the public has wanted to hear about | :09:47. | :09:53. | |
the battle between nationalists and unionists. It was set in the Evening | :09:54. | :10:01. | |
Standard 's, edited by George Osborne, that your party had | :10:02. | :10:07. | |
reservations about the way in which Theresa May has run the campaign. | :10:08. | :10:12. | |
What were they? That's incorrect entirely. All Conservatives in | :10:13. | :10:16. | |
Scotland... You think it's been a brilliant campaign? They have | :10:17. | :10:21. | |
definitely been issues. To reason they would admit that. Some have | :10:22. | :10:26. | |
been picked up clearly. -- to reason they would admit that. There hasn't | :10:27. | :10:31. | |
been a division at all. Many of the issues in the general election | :10:32. | :10:34. | |
campaign, about Brexit and the international dimensions as well as | :10:35. | :10:40. | |
to do with public services, I don't think you'll do any divisions | :10:41. | :10:46. | |
whatsoever. -- you'll find any divisions. Let's find a legal | :10:47. | :10:49. | |
perspective. We talked about some of the factors that might have led to | :10:50. | :10:54. | |
an increase in support for the Liberal party. -- a Labour | :10:55. | :11:01. | |
perspective. How might that pan out? We'll wait until we see the final | :11:02. | :11:08. | |
results. We've got to fight into this that there is great volatility. | :11:09. | :11:14. | |
In the States, in Western democracies, Scotland, Britain. | :11:15. | :11:18. | |
Loyalty to parties has gone? It has in a sense. It would be important | :11:19. | :11:25. | |
not to dismiss the fact that you had really the clash of extremes in the | :11:26. | :11:32. | |
way, with respect, a unionist and if you want a Ford unionist vote | :11:33. | :11:38. | |
Conservative. Corbyn has reintroduced a manifesto which | :11:39. | :11:43. | |
doesn't go back to class -based idea but starts to throw up ownership, | :11:44. | :11:51. | |
attacks on its territory. -- on austerity. The bounce to Labour, if | :11:52. | :12:01. | |
so, that has been about the manifesto and changing the dynamic | :12:02. | :12:05. | |
within the election. What about the point that Derek Mackay mate that | :12:06. | :12:10. | |
some people, perhaps including, hoped that this election would be so | :12:11. | :12:15. | |
bad for Labour that you could change of leader and start anew? I was in | :12:16. | :12:21. | |
the House of Commons first a long time with Jeremy. I know him well. | :12:22. | :12:29. | |
At election time, it is my party. I thought the manifesto was | :12:30. | :12:32. | |
particularly good and I think what happened, remains to be seen, in | :12:33. | :12:36. | |
Scotland, lots of the love discounted Jeremy Corbyn. -- a lot | :12:37. | :12:43. | |
of people that discounted Jeremy Corbyn. They've seen the manifesto | :12:44. | :12:47. | |
and changed their minds. I wouldn't like anybody to discount the fact | :12:48. | :12:56. | |
that, setting aside Jeremy Corbyn and his characteristics, the | :12:57. | :12:59. | |
manifesto has shifted. It'll be interesting to see how that works | :13:00. | :13:07. | |
both North and South of the border. I want to cost another interview. -- | :13:08. | :13:16. | |
cross to another injury. We are going to the Ukip politician. Is | :13:17. | :13:25. | |
this seat the election that finished you get? -- finished Ukip? OK, I'm | :13:26. | :13:36. | |
going to ask that first question again because he can't your answer. | :13:37. | :13:41. | |
I might need to come back to you when we sort this out. Let's hear | :13:42. | :13:47. | |
from Ross Greer. You were only standing in three constituencies in | :13:48. | :13:51. | |
Scotland. How do you think you've done? It looks like a success. | :13:52. | :13:55. | |
You've won? LAUGHTER | :13:56. | :13:58. | |
BELL Not quite. | :13:59. | :14:02. | |
We knew we had to run a focused campaign. As a smaller party can't | :14:03. | :14:08. | |
knock on really no stores and ask for a check, that is challenging for | :14:09. | :14:14. | |
us. Our revolt is up significantly. -- our revolt back is up. First past | :14:15. | :14:22. | |
the post takes time. In Glasgow zero, we are well ahead of where we | :14:23. | :14:27. | |
were in Brighton. I will interrupt you for a declaration. I hereby give | :14:28. | :14:38. | |
motors -- notice of the results of the Rutherglen and time at a barber | :14:39. | :14:49. | |
constituency. The electorate was 80,098. The total votes cast were | :14:50. | :14:59. | |
said does 901029 -- was 50900 and 29. The percentage of total bouts | :15:00. | :15:06. | |
cast was 63%. The number of ballot papers rejected was 57. I hereby | :15:07. | :15:14. | |
give notice that the total number of votes polled for each candidate at | :15:15. | :15:20. | |
the election was as follows. Robert Edward Brown, Scottish Lib Dems, | :15:21. | :15:37. | |
2158. Andy Dixon, Independent, 371. Margaret Ferrier, Scottish National | :15:38. | :15:47. | |
Party, 18,836. Jerod Killen, labour and corporate of party, 19,000... | :15:48. | :15:49. | |
CHEERING Jerod Killen, Labour and cooperative | :15:50. | :16:29. | |
party. Ann Le Blond Scottish Conservatives and unionist, named as | :16:30. | :16:31. | |
an 41. LAUGHTER | :16:32. | :16:40. | |
Caroline Santos Ukip, forge and 65. I declare that Gerard Killen is | :16:41. | :16:51. | |
therefore elected to serve in the United Kingdom Parliament. Well, | :16:52. | :16:56. | |
there's our first result in Scotland and the seat is changing hands. | :16:57. | :17:05. | |
Labour are back in Rutherglen and Hamilton West. | :17:06. | :17:30. | |
Party had taken seats from the SNP? Scotland. | :17:31. | :17:37. | |
I'd like to take tribute to my predecessors. Both will be as | :17:38. | :17:44. | |
delighted as me that Rutherglen and Hamilton West has returned to | :17:45. | :17:45. | |
Labour. CHEERING | :17:46. | :17:57. | |
My sincere thanks goes to my election agent Lindsay Hamilton, my | :17:58. | :18:03. | |
amazing team, my husband and family and to James Kelly and Monica Lynn | :18:04. | :18:10. | |
in further support in this campaign. This result is a rejection of | :18:11. | :18:16. | |
austerity. And a rejection of a divisive seconded and referendum. | :18:17. | :18:27. | |
Above all, this result is a vote for a progressive manifesto and a fresh | :18:28. | :18:32. | |
start for Rutherglen and Hamilton West. I am well aware that it was a | :18:33. | :18:40. | |
coalition of altars who elected me despondent. -- of full?. April that | :18:41. | :18:46. | |
have always voted Labour... And that you and your MP in Rutherglen and | :18:47. | :18:53. | |
Hamilton West. Gerard Killen. A local councillor and now the MP for | :18:54. | :18:57. | |
that constituency. The first result from Scotland's offer this evening. | :18:58. | :19:02. | |
A quick word with Brian Taylor. I might need to interrupt you. | :19:03. | :19:13. | |
James Kelly, who is a Labour MSP from the area, tipped this to be a | :19:14. | :19:21. | |
seat that would change hands, and nobody paid him much heed, it turns | :19:22. | :19:26. | |
out he has been right. Remarkable result for Labour. What do you make | :19:27. | :19:31. | |
of that Nicola? A big surprise, not on the cards from the opinion poll, | :19:32. | :19:36. | |
it was Labour's eighth target seat in Scotland. So if it is winning its | :19:37. | :19:41. | |
eighth target seat it could be a good night for Labour. Let us get | :19:42. | :19:46. | |
some reaction from Henry McLeish, were you expecting that No it is an | :19:47. | :19:52. | |
excellent result. It is a good campaign and it's a very good | :19:53. | :19:56. | |
candidate. Think as Nicola has been saying, you will see some patchy | :19:57. | :19:59. | |
results throughout Scotland, but nevertheless, this is very | :20:00. | :20:01. | |
significant and the point has been made, if in has been won, there are | :20:02. | :20:07. | |
potentially others. There is how significant the change in the vote | :20:08. | :20:10. | |
in Rutherglen is. The Labour vote has only gone up by a couple of | :20:11. | :20:16. | |
percentage points but the SNP vote has gone down significantly. Down 16 | :20:17. | :20:21. | |
point, the main beneficiaries the Conservatives up 12, but they | :20:22. | :20:25. | |
weren't really ever the contenders in that constituency, slight changes | :20:26. | :20:30. | |
in the votes for the other party, the turn out 64%. We may be able to | :20:31. | :20:36. | |
bring you the swing in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West | :20:37. | :20:38. | |
constituency, let us take a look at that. It is from the SNP to Labour, | :20:39. | :20:47. | |
of 8.9%. A rot result from an SNP point of view. I feel for Margaret | :20:48. | :20:53. | |
Ferrier, she was a good much. I think she deserved to win, a close | :20:54. | :20:58. | |
majority at 265. We would have wanted to hold that seat but that is | :20:59. | :21:03. | |
a disappointing result, but as I say, a close majority, | :21:04. | :21:05. | |
congratulations to the Labour candidate and I feel for Margaret. | :21:06. | :21:09. | |
She was an excellent MP. How do you read the change in vote there, the | :21:10. | :21:12. | |
big increase in the Conservative vote and the big drop in the SNP | :21:13. | :21:16. | |
vote, what does it tell us about how the election might go for you in | :21:17. | :21:22. | |
Scotland? Too premature to say, I suspect within, this will be | :21:23. | :21:26. | |
complex, how people vote in different constituencies, I don't | :21:27. | :21:28. | |
think you can read too much at this stage. Thank you very much indeed | :21:29. | :21:33. | |
for the moment. Perhaps a quick word with Liz Smith, just on that | :21:34. | :21:36. | |
increase in the Conservative vote. You were never expecting to win this | :21:37. | :21:43. | |
seat, but, you have a big she'll on your face. You will have a bigger | :21:44. | :21:46. | |
smile when it suggested the Tory vote might have been 19,000. I am | :21:47. | :21:50. | |
delighted I think we will see a number of seats where perhaps the | :21:51. | :21:53. | |
Conservatives are not the main contenders where the vote is being | :21:54. | :21:59. | |
pushed up, and, you know, I am optimistic, we will win good seats | :22:00. | :22:03. | |
across Scotland but we will see an increase in the vote as well. Let us | :22:04. | :22:08. | |
hear from your colleague David Mundell, the Secretary of State for | :22:09. | :22:12. | |
Scotland. He is live in Dumfries, with one result to go, obviously, | :22:13. | :22:16. | |
you can't make too many predeck should bes but if your vote is up in | :22:17. | :22:22. | |
a seat like Rutherglen and Hamilton West, are you starting to think you | :22:23. | :22:29. | |
could be on for a good night? I am very positive about tonight. I think | :22:30. | :22:32. | |
we will see the Conservatives make significant progress across | :22:33. | :22:36. | |
Scotland. I think we will see a pattern emerge, that pattern will be | :22:37. | :22:40. | |
increased Conservative support, and a decrease in SNP support. I think | :22:41. | :22:45. | |
it is becoming increasingly clear the SNP bubble has burst in the last | :22:46. | :22:51. | |
two election, the Scottish Parliament and council check | :22:52. | :22:54. | |
election, the SNP vote has been done, that down, it is replicated | :22:55. | :22:58. | |
tonight. It is clear why that is. People across Scotland don't want | :22:59. | :23:02. | |
another divisive independence referendum, and Nicola Sturgeon | :23:03. | :23:06. | |
herself has gone from being a figurehead in Scotland, to being | :23:07. | :23:10. | |
somebody that ordinary voters across Scotland deeply dislike. If you can | :23:11. | :23:13. | |
give us some clarity on what is happening to the SNP, can you also | :23:14. | :23:20. | |
give us the same clarity as to why UK-wide, accuse coring to the exit | :23:21. | :23:23. | |
poll the Conservatives are not doing what Theresa May set out to do? -- | :23:24. | :23:29. | |
according. I think the results obviously in | :23:30. | :23:34. | |
England are quite varied. The results I have seen, some of those | :23:35. | :23:38. | |
are clearly not in line with that exit poll and I think we will have | :23:39. | :23:43. | |
to have a lot more results from England, before we can see a pattern | :23:44. | :23:47. | |
or any sort of pattern emerging, see whether there is in fact a | :23:48. | :23:52. | |
Conservative majority or not. We are showing pictures at the moment, | :23:53. | :23:56. | |
sorry to interrupt. From colleagues across Scotland. Sorry to interrupt | :23:57. | :24:01. | |
David Mundell. We are showing pictures of Amber Rudd, the Home | :24:02. | :24:06. | |
Secretary, defending the Hastings and Rye constituency, I think there | :24:07. | :24:10. | |
is is a lot of nervousness from a Conservative point of view there. | :24:11. | :24:15. | |
What are you hearing, might you lose a cabinet colleague tonight? I don't | :24:16. | :24:23. | |
know what the result is there, glen, I understand that there was a | :24:24. | :24:29. | |
recount, but that is consistent with very varied results across England. | :24:30. | :24:33. | |
We have seen results, I saw earlier in your programme, where the | :24:34. | :24:37. | |
Conservative vote actually went up in a number of seats, so I think | :24:38. | :24:42. | |
until we get a pattern, we won't know what the outcome is going to be | :24:43. | :24:46. | |
in England, what the outcome is going to be overall in the UK, what | :24:47. | :24:51. | |
I think I am certain of, because I am much closer to those facts and | :24:52. | :24:55. | |
much closer to those involved, is that the Conservatives are going to | :24:56. | :24:59. | |
make significant progress in Scotland, at the expense of the SNP. | :25:00. | :25:03. | |
OK. Thank you very much for talking to us at this early stage in the | :25:04. | :25:07. | |
evening. It may be we will speak to you much later when we know a lot | :25:08. | :25:12. | |
more. David Mundell live from Dumfries, Brian is desperate to come | :25:13. | :25:16. | |
in. A couple of tiny thing, the swing that had been, the swing that | :25:17. | :25:21. | |
will be expected as a result of the exit poll, was 7.5 from the SNP to | :25:22. | :25:25. | |
Labour. It is actually nine, so it is a bit more than the exit poll | :25:26. | :25:29. | |
would suggest, so it is in line but slightly lower and maybe the exit | :25:30. | :25:33. | |
poll is forecasting the SNP to take 34 seats and to lose 22 as a | :25:34. | :25:37. | |
consequence. Another lit thing, a straw in the wind that might be | :25:38. | :25:41. | |
interesting, no one party, the Labour Party won the seat, but no | :25:42. | :25:45. | |
one party emerged as the dominant challenger to the SNP, because the | :25:46. | :25:48. | |
Tory vote is up, but so is the Liberal Democrat vote. Of the pro | :25:49. | :25:53. | |
union parties only Ukip, who are having a dreadful night registered a | :25:54. | :25:57. | |
decline in vote. That could be important because it could, there | :25:58. | :26:01. | |
could be constituencies where the pro union parties contest each | :26:02. | :26:04. | |
other, as to who is the main challenger to the SNP, and the SNP | :26:05. | :26:08. | |
MP comes through the middle. Thank you very much. Let us cross to the | :26:09. | :26:13. | |
cafe. The election cafe, and Fiona. We are going to get you some | :26:14. | :26:18. | |
immediate reaction to that. Everyone was gathered round the TV to watch | :26:19. | :26:24. | |
that result, among them was Kevin Pringle former of the SNP. What went | :26:25. | :26:31. | |
wrong? It was disappointing and commiserations to Margaret Ferrer | :26:32. | :26:34. | |
but congratulations to Ged Killen the new Labour MP. It has been a | :26:35. | :26:39. | |
closely fought contest, a narrow majority, I expect that will set a | :26:40. | :26:43. | |
pattern for the night of a lot of seats being won on relatively small | :26:44. | :26:46. | |
majorities. What has happened to the SNP? How can you explain that? | :26:47. | :26:51. | |
Obviously comes from a very high base, two years ago the SNP won 95% | :26:52. | :26:55. | |
of all the seats in Scotland. That is unrepeatable. So it was always | :26:56. | :26:58. | |
going to come down to something smaller than that. The exit poll | :26:59. | :27:04. | |
indicates 34, we will need to find out. That is the reality. Of course | :27:05. | :27:09. | |
the other parties in a four party system in Scotland. It is not | :27:10. | :27:13. | |
sustainable for one par toy have 95% of the seats. There is a rebalancing | :27:14. | :27:17. | |
and congratulations to the new Labour MP. Where do the countries | :27:18. | :27:21. | |
stand with indyref2, what will Nicola Sturgeon do about that next? | :27:22. | :27:27. | |
That was on the other side of the Brexit negotiation process, what is | :27:28. | :27:31. | |
fascinating about the result UK-wide tonight, if the exit poll is to be | :27:32. | :27:35. | |
believed, if the Tories don't have an overall majority, everything is | :27:36. | :27:38. | |
up for grabs in a House of Commons where potentially the opposition are | :27:39. | :27:42. | |
in the majority, so I think if opposition parties work closely | :27:43. | :27:46. | |
together, then the focus, the immediate focus is those Brexit | :27:47. | :27:50. | |
negotiation, and having a more sensible outcome than otherwise | :27:51. | :27:54. | |
would be the case, in other words, for example, potentially working | :27:55. | :27:59. | |
across parties to secure the UK's place in the single European market. | :28:00. | :28:03. | |
That is immediate work in hand an independence referendum is on the | :28:04. | :28:07. | |
other side of that process, that is the job where I think something can | :28:08. | :28:11. | |
be achieved of significance for Scotland, but with the SNP having a | :28:12. | :28:18. | |
smaller but influential part in a hung parliament. Angela Haggerty, | :28:19. | :28:23. | |
you were standing necks to me when that result came through, I think | :28:24. | :28:30. | |
you said oof. Perhaps a result not many people could have predicted. A | :28:31. | :28:34. | |
big surprise for you. Yes, I think this whole election is going to be | :28:35. | :28:37. | |
the big surprise that nobody saw come, if you go back to the | :28:38. | :28:40. | |
beginning we thought we were going to be talking about how many seats, | :28:41. | :28:44. | |
how big the landslide was going to be for Theresa May, I suspect, in | :28:45. | :28:48. | |
Scotland, what we thought we would be talking ability here was the Tory | :28:49. | :28:52. | |
resurgence, what we might be talking about is what is going on with | :28:53. | :28:55. | |
Labour, which seems to be the thing that nobody really saw coming, and I | :28:56. | :28:59. | |
think it very much seems to be the Corbyn effect, I was surprised | :29:00. | :29:04. | |
actually, in recent days how many pro independence people I have seen | :29:05. | :29:08. | |
saying they were going to vote Labour. They still consider | :29:09. | :29:11. | |
themselves to be pro independence but they were very taken by Jeremy | :29:12. | :29:15. | |
Corbyn's manifesto. And I think when you look at that, and in terms of | :29:16. | :29:21. | |
the indyref2 campaign was about the ho picks of hope, of vision, of | :29:22. | :29:26. | |
radical change, Jeremy Corbyn's very much in tune with that as well. When | :29:27. | :29:30. | |
you look at it in that framing, rather than the nationalist framing | :29:31. | :29:33. | |
we do, and understand that there is a lot of nuance within that | :29:34. | :29:36. | |
independence movement, I think you could have seen a lot of pro indie | :29:37. | :29:42. | |
votes going to Labour. It will be fascinating to see what the find | :29:43. | :29:46. | |
votes are and what the vote share looks like when the count comes in. | :29:47. | :29:50. | |
A lot of happy Labour faces here tonight. I am with a happy man, Tom | :29:51. | :29:55. | |
Harris, a former Labour MP. I asked him how he felt within that | :29:56. | :29:58. | |
independence movement, I think you could have seen a lot of pro indie | :29:59. | :30:01. | |
votes going to Labour. It will be fascinating to see what the find | :30:02. | :30:03. | |
votes are and what the vote share looks like when the count comes in. | :30:04. | :30:06. | |
A lot of happy Labour faces here tonight. I am with a happy man, Tom | :30:07. | :30:09. | |
Harris, a former Labour MP. I asked him how he felt earlier on within | :30:10. | :30:11. | |
that independence movement, I think you could have seen a lot of pro | :30:12. | :30:14. | |
indie votes going to Labour. It will be fascinating to see what the find | :30:15. | :30:17. | |
votes are and what the vote share looks like when the count comes in. | :30:18. | :30:20. | |
A lot of happy Labour faces here tonight. I am with a happy man, Tom | :30:21. | :30:23. | |
Harris, a former Labour MP. I asked him how he felt earlier on and he | :30:24. | :30:26. | |
said "I'm speechless but I will think of something to say when you | :30:27. | :30:29. | |
come to me." Have you thought of that I was delighted at the result. | :30:30. | :30:31. | |
That was tremendous. You have to remember that the mind-set of the | :30:32. | :30:34. | |
Labour Party in the aftermath of 2015. I was on the 40 Louisianaing | :30:35. | :30:36. | |
candidate, looking at the size of the majority, we just didn't believe | :30:37. | :30:39. | |
that it was going to take anything less than a generation to be back in | :30:40. | :30:41. | |
contention of these seats and tonight, two years after that | :30:42. | :30:44. | |
dreadful White Paper out, we are seeing -- wipe out we are seeing | :30:45. | :30:46. | |
Labour gapes where never expected them. I have poken to Labour people | :30:47. | :30:48. | |
through this campaign, no of whom predicted we would do anything | :30:49. | :30:51. | |
holding on to Edinburgh South, and if things go the way we think they | :30:52. | :30:54. | |
might be going, Labour could be the second placed party in Scotland. | :30:55. | :30:56. | |
With maybe six or seven seat, that is just, you know, tremendous. You | :30:57. | :31:00. | |
are not a fan of Corbyn. I am not. Is he not, due some, given him his | :31:01. | :31:07. | |
due? No, think what has been said is right, that he has a certain | :31:08. | :31:11. | |
attraction particularly to young radical minded people, and I will | :31:12. | :31:18. | |
give him his due, that is one of his benefits, I, from there are other | :31:19. | :31:22. | |
reasons I don't trust Jeremy Corbyn, but I am not going to take away the | :31:23. | :31:26. | |
fact that at least part of Labour's resurgence is down to him tonight. | :31:27. | :31:30. | |
Interesting point. I think it will be a fascinating point. We will be | :31:31. | :31:34. | |
hear all night. Join the conversation. We will stay up all | :31:35. | :31:39. | |
night together. We are hearing word from Cameron Buttle in Kelso, he is | :31:40. | :31:48. | |
hearing from SNP sources that the Berwickshire Roxburgh constituency | :31:49. | :31:51. | |
has gone or will go to the Conservatives, apparently the | :31:52. | :31:54. | |
Liberal Democrat vote there has moved over to the Conservatives. Let | :31:55. | :31:58. | |
us cross to Jackie Bird for more of the election headlines. | :31:59. | :32:04. | |
Let us recap. The first Scottish seat has been declared and delivered | :32:05. | :32:08. | |
a defeat for the SNP. Labour are back in Rutherglen with a swing of | :32:09. | :32:14. | |
nearly 9%, this is what their new MP had to say. This result is a | :32:15. | :32:25. | |
rejection of austerity. And a rejection of a divisive second | :32:26. | :32:32. | |
independence referendum. Above all, this result is a vote for a | :32:33. | :32:39. | |
progressive manifesto, and a fresh start for Rutherglen and Hamilton | :32:40. | :32:43. | |
West. A lot of speculation that the Home Secretary Amber Rudd could be | :32:44. | :32:48. | |
in trouble in Hastings and Rye, and suggestions from the BBC's political | :32:49. | :32:52. | |
editor Laura Kuenssberg that Nick Clegg could go from his seat | :32:53. | :32:57. | |
Sheffield Hallam. Let us look at a few more familiar face, Vince Cable, | :32:58. | :33:00. | |
former Business Secretary and the Tory Liberal Democrat coalition, he | :33:01. | :33:04. | |
is hoping to take Twickenham for the Liberal Democrats. He said bring it | :33:05. | :33:08. | |
on, let us see if he is still confident later. He could end up | :33:09. | :33:13. | |
adds lead gern if the rumours are true. Esther McVey is the candidate | :33:14. | :33:18. | |
in Tatton following George Osborne's decision to swap careers and then we | :33:19. | :33:23. | |
have Zac Goldsmith hoping to return as a Tory MP. He quit of his par | :33:24. | :33:29. | |
ties support for the expansion of Heathrow Airport and Liberal | :33:30. | :33:33. | |
Democrat Jo Swinson is looking to win her seat back from the SNP. On | :33:34. | :33:39. | |
twitter BuzzFeed is recording that the Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, | :33:40. | :33:43. | |
Glenn, is already on manoeuvres as they say in political circles | :33:44. | :33:45. | |
regarding the Tory leadership. The to Paisley. Live Alison Jane | :33:46. | :34:13. | |
Darling Scottish Labour Party 14,000... | :34:14. | :34:22. | |
APPLAUSE 876. Scottish Liberal Democrats | :34:23. | :34:38. | |
1327. Amy Louise Robertson Scottish Conservative and Unionist 8120 J. | :34:39. | :34:51. | |
The total number of ballot papers rejected was 59. The total number of | :34:52. | :35:02. | |
votes was 41,000 771. Therefore I declare that Mhairi Black is duly | :35:03. | :35:10. | |
elected as the member of Parliament for Paisley and Renfrewshire South | :35:11. | :35:12. | |
constituency. CHEERING | :35:13. | :35:20. | |
So Mhairi Black is back. She was the youngest MP in the last parliament. | :35:21. | :35:26. | |
She is returning to the House of Commons as MP for Paisley and | :35:27. | :35:32. | |
Renfrewshire South. And later thanked the returning officer and | :35:33. | :35:36. | |
all the staff that made this as smooth as possible at short notice. | :35:37. | :35:42. | |
I wanted to thank Denise was continuing... I'd like to thank the | :35:43. | :35:54. | |
Labour candidates and at wish them the best. I want to give personal | :35:55. | :36:02. | |
thanks to my family, my aunts and uncles, for their continued support | :36:03. | :36:08. | |
personally and politically. To my staff, who are no doubt as happy as | :36:09. | :36:17. | |
I am. They fought through all for every single last fall. You are the | :36:18. | :36:22. | |
reason I am still standing. I'll never be able to thank you. The last | :36:23. | :36:30. | |
few years, it's been an honour and a privilege. That is the result in | :36:31. | :36:37. | |
Paisley. The SNP have held that constituency. Mhairi Black returns. | :36:38. | :37:10. | |
Here is what has happened in the last two years. The big game in this | :37:11. | :37:23. | |
constituency is the Conservatives, up 12%. -- the big gain. The SNP | :37:24. | :37:37. | |
vote down but they hold the seat. The centre the Conservatives would | :37:38. | :37:41. | |
be more interesting. Perhaps we will look at that later. -- the swing to | :37:42. | :37:46. | |
the Conservatives. Let's get some reaction. Derek Mackay, a better | :37:47. | :37:52. | |
result. She is a superstar for the SNP. I'm delighted. This was Douglas | :37:53. | :38:02. | |
asked Douglas Alexander. The SNP vote might is down significantly. | :38:03. | :38:10. | |
The Conservative vote is up by a lot. How do we do that shift? | :38:11. | :38:14. | |
There's no doubt that it will be complex. The SNP has taken the | :38:15. | :38:23. | |
council back, Renfrewshire Council. Held this seat. The Tories have had | :38:24. | :38:30. | |
a fierce campaign against the SNP, as this pointed out. The other | :38:31. | :38:39. | |
parties joining in. Ten years in Government. The timing of the | :38:40. | :38:42. | |
election is not our choosing. We've held the seat in these | :38:43. | :38:49. | |
circumstances. It was closely fought but the SNP held on. Disappointed | :38:50. | :38:55. | |
not to see more progress from Labour? You will see this battered | :38:56. | :38:58. | |
your attack. The SNP vote is breaking. -- you will see this | :38:59. | :39:06. | |
pattern throughout the night. She is an impressive candidate and a lot of | :39:07. | :39:12. | |
slave with younger people. -- a lot of sway with younger people. | :39:13. | :39:20. | |
Personal qualities come through. Let's look at the bigger picture. | :39:21. | :39:26. | |
Just two seats are declared sufferer in Scotland. Labour and SNP. -- | :39:27. | :39:33. | |
declared sufferer in Scotland. One of the most startling thing is for | :39:34. | :39:40. | |
this is the sea of yellow body last couple of years. This reveals the | :39:41. | :39:48. | |
dominance since the elections. Things were different before this | :39:49. | :39:53. | |
point. Let's see how the map in 2010. David Cameron one for the | :39:54. | :39:59. | |
first time. At that point, just six seats for the SNP. The rest of the | :40:00. | :40:05. | |
Scotland, dominated by Labour. 41 MPs. Much of the Highlands held by | :40:06. | :40:16. | |
the Lib Dems. In 2015, this was decisive. Labour's the situation and | :40:17. | :40:23. | |
for the first time a big SNP presence at Westminster. Change is | :40:24. | :40:27. | |
constant and politics. This could be a clue to the next big change. Local | :40:28. | :40:36. | |
can elections held a thumping defeat from Labour. These are pricing thing | :40:37. | :40:40. | |
was the rise of the Scottish Conservatives. -- the surprising | :40:41. | :40:46. | |
thing. More than double their haul the last time. Here are the 2012 | :40:47. | :40:55. | |
results. The SNP did well. The Conservatives did nothing like so | :40:56. | :41:00. | |
well. Tonight's exit poll could make us think the Scottish Conservatives | :41:01. | :41:07. | |
will not see dramatic gains. Let's look more closely comparing 2012 to | :41:08. | :41:12. | |
2017. You can see what a breakthrough there has been. 2017 | :41:13. | :41:17. | |
meant something for the Conservatives in Scotland. Their | :41:18. | :41:22. | |
opposition to a second independence referendum possibly meaningful. Many | :41:23. | :41:29. | |
thought this pattern might be repeated tonight in this general | :41:30. | :41:35. | |
election. Let's look at the votes so far in Scotland. Just two | :41:36. | :41:40. | |
declarations so far. Dundee City Council for, but | :41:41. | :42:16. | |
interesting indications. -- on the seats we had so far. I've just been | :42:17. | :42:23. | |
hearing from some SNP sources down here, they think they've lost it. | :42:24. | :42:28. | |
They think they've lost Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk. | :42:29. | :42:38. | |
They vote has held Straughan but the Lib Dem vote seems to have gone to | :42:39. | :42:42. | |
the Conservatives. Labour's Ian Davidson thinks Labour are doing | :42:43. | :42:45. | |
well but that John Lamont hazard by 5000. -- has it by 5000. Carolyn | :42:46. | :42:53. | |
Burgess says she thinks they might be looking at fourth place behind | :42:54. | :42:59. | |
Labour. John Lamont is famously tight-lipped. He is beating down the | :43:00. | :43:03. | |
middle there. I asked him what he thinks and he said he was remaining | :43:04. | :43:11. | |
tight-lipped. Thanks for the update. That's in Kelso. Let's dig up with | :43:12. | :43:21. | |
Liz Smith on that. This is the most marginal constituency on the | :43:22. | :43:24. | |
country. If you weren't winning, your campaign would be something of | :43:25. | :43:31. | |
a disaster. John is a superb candidate. He deserves this victory. | :43:32. | :43:37. | |
I'm sure it will be a good one. He was an MSP until recently. There are | :43:38. | :43:45. | |
3-4 Conservative MSP is contending in this election. The many in your | :43:46. | :43:53. | |
party regard Westminster as the bigger prize? One of the things | :43:54. | :43:57. | |
about the Scottish revival for the Conservatives as we see the local | :43:58. | :44:02. | |
councils as being important and tonight will prove that the results | :44:03. | :44:08. | |
will be strong across the board. One of the interesting things about some | :44:09. | :44:12. | |
of the results in terms of the percentage of the swing, that'll be | :44:13. | :44:17. | |
indicated in those of seats across Scotland. That's been a strong | :44:18. | :44:23. | |
Unionist message we've played well in this election. Given that the | :44:24. | :44:28. | |
Conservatives... Let's get a declaration... It's in... Oh, we'll | :44:29. | :44:32. | |
bring you details of the result in the constituency where Justin | :44:33. | :44:41. | |
Greening is defending. In London. In just a short while. Picking up Brian | :44:42. | :44:46. | |
Taylor on the results in Scotland so far. The way in which despite the | :44:47. | :44:53. | |
fact, because of the fact, that three parties campaigned on a | :44:54. | :44:57. | |
prounion ticket, that has perhaps confused voters in terms of uniting | :44:58. | :45:03. | |
behind one candidate if they didn't want the SNP. These parties try to | :45:04. | :45:11. | |
say that there are a couple of seats that we are challenges. Vote for us | :45:12. | :45:14. | |
there and ignore the rest. Other parties just hinted at tactical | :45:15. | :45:23. | |
voting. It doesn't seem to have worked in the sense that no single | :45:24. | :45:28. | |
contender emerged in and Renfrewshire South. The SNP was ten | :45:29. | :45:37. | |
points off. In Scotland, SNP vote is 13.2% of the price -- pace. Labour | :45:38. | :45:46. | |
vote is actually down. The Tories are up 11.9%. That is reflected in | :45:47. | :45:53. | |
Berwickshire, they will win others. Berwickshire, they will win others. | :45:54. | :45:56. | |
-- they won't just when Berwickshire. Those pictures from | :45:57. | :46:05. | |
Aberdeen. The Conservative camp. They are feeling quite chirpy in | :46:06. | :46:10. | |
that part of the country. Aberdeen South is a target for them. We were | :46:11. | :46:22. | |
talking earlier but -- about Aberdeen. Tory MSP Ross Thomson. He | :46:23. | :46:32. | |
is prominent in campaigning for us to leave the EU. Let's pick up with | :46:33. | :46:38. | |
Nicola McEwan. Where is the exit poll? In Scotland, the exit poll God | :46:39. | :46:45. | |
that the other way round. They expected the SNP to hold onto | :46:46. | :46:49. | |
Rutherglen but Toulouse Mhairi Black's seat. -- but to lose Mhairi | :46:50. | :47:00. | |
Black. Turnout is up in England. Let's just stop you there. A | :47:01. | :47:05. | |
declaration for Lanark and Hamilton East. We will have that shortly. | :47:06. | :47:11. | |
That is imminent, I'm told. We will cross there as soon as that comes | :47:12. | :47:16. | |
in. Carry on. Turn out looking like the highest in England overall since | :47:17. | :47:24. | |
1997. Significantly down in Scotland's offer. Some seats have | :47:25. | :47:29. | |
integrated. Lower than the rest of the UK. -- some seats have not | :47:30. | :47:34. | |
declared yet. We should remember that the result... It was a higher | :47:35. | :47:41. | |
turnout in Scotland after the referendum. These are pictures from | :47:42. | :47:48. | |
Bishopbriggs. Dunbartonshire East count is taking place there. That is | :47:49. | :47:54. | |
Jo Swinson. She was the MPs there and is hoping to be there again. In | :47:55. | :47:58. | |
order for that to happen, she needs to defeat the SNP candidate John | :47:59. | :48:06. | |
Nicolson, a high-profile figure for his party over the last couple of | :48:07. | :48:11. | |
years. We will be new pictures of him when BCM. We know that the | :48:12. | :48:18. | |
deputy leader of the SNP Angus Robertson has arrived. He says wait | :48:19. | :48:26. | |
and see. Not giving too much away about how he thinks these | :48:27. | :48:31. | |
constituency will go. We also have pictures of Pete Wishart. He is | :48:32. | :48:43. | |
fighting a tough fight in Perth and North Perthshire. It might well be a | :48:44. | :48:50. | |
seat that the SNP loses the Conservatives. A high-profile | :48:51. | :48:57. | |
candidate in Ian Duncan, the MEP. Let's bring you some more details of | :48:58. | :49:01. | |
results coming in. Dunbartonshire West. The SNP have held. | :49:02. | :49:11. | |
Labour second there. The Conservatives third, and the liberal | :49:12. | :49:24. | |
Democrats in fourth. The turn out in Dunbartonshire west | :49:25. | :49:33. | |
65%, the SNP with 43% of the vote. 38 for Labour. Compared to last | :49:34. | :49:40. | |
time, the SNP vote down, down 16%, Labour up 6, the bigger | :49:41. | :49:44. | |
beneficiaries the Conservative, up so percentage points on last time. | :49:45. | :49:53. | |
So, the swing there 11.3% from the SNP, to Labour and once again it may | :49:54. | :49:57. | |
be worth us coming back to some of the swings to the Conservatives in | :49:58. | :50:01. | |
these seats, given the rise in their vote. Now, we can speak to a winner, | :50:02. | :50:07. | |
one of the few MPs that we have in Scotland, she is Mhairi Black and | :50:08. | :50:13. | |
she has been re-elected as she joins us live from her count. | :50:14. | :50:17. | |
Congratulations, a bit a relief? Thanks very much. Yes, I suppose, | :50:18. | :50:22. | |
you know, if anybody was to be told they had a yob for another five | :50:23. | :50:29. | |
years I think that is good news. And there were reports recently that you | :50:30. | :50:32. | |
weren't happy with the House of Commons and maybe you wouldn't want | :50:33. | :50:36. | |
to stay, with this snap election you took a decision to fight on, have | :50:37. | :50:40. | |
you still got a lot to do and if so what is it you want to achieve ore | :50:41. | :50:46. | |
the next five years? Well, I think firstly it is important to say that | :50:47. | :50:51. | |
all of those stories were grossly overexaggerated. When I signed up to | :50:52. | :50:54. | |
to be the representative for this area I meant it and although I make | :50:55. | :51:02. | |
ho secret about the fact I find Westminster archaic I think we have | :51:03. | :51:08. | |
to get involved in it. I am glad to be reelected to go back down and | :51:09. | :51:12. | |
continue, the austerity is not working, it is not benefitting | :51:13. | :51:15. | |
people's lives whatsoever, the people it is benefitting, are the | :51:16. | :51:19. | |
ones who you could argue need it lest least, so I think that is the | :51:20. | :51:23. | |
main goal for us, going down to Westminster, and certainly it is my | :51:24. | :51:27. | |
main goal. We have some results from across the UK, and obviously, the | :51:28. | :51:32. | |
exit polls suggesting Labour doing far better than perhaps might | :51:33. | :51:38. | |
otherwise have been expected, would you welcome should it be possible, a | :51:39. | :51:47. | |
Jeremy Corbyn Premiership? Oh yes, I mean I think it's it is a similar | :51:48. | :51:50. | |
question, given the fact that quite a lot of the Labour manifesto was | :51:51. | :51:56. | |
almost exactly copied from the SNP's Scottish Government manifesto. I | :51:57. | :52:00. | |
mean, we have been very consistent, not just from 2015 but when this | :52:01. | :52:04. | |
election kicked off we would be prepared to work with anyone in | :52:05. | :52:08. | |
terms of a progressive alliance, a, you know, working for progressive | :52:09. | :52:12. | |
policies, and I think that we could, we, put it this way we would be more | :52:13. | :52:15. | |
likely to find that with Jeremy Corbyn than Theresa May. | :52:16. | :52:20. | |
Good to talk to you Mhairi Black, live from the count in Paisley, | :52:21. | :52:23. | |
congratulations to you once again. We are hearing that there is a | :52:24. | :52:31. | |
recount in Perth, and that is where we can join Graham Stewart who has | :52:32. | :52:35. | |
all the details for us. What exactly are you hearing from the count | :52:36. | :52:41. | |
there? Well, the Returning Officer has confirmed it is indeed a recount | :52:42. | :52:46. | |
here, and the candidates have said that there are only 36 votes in it. | :52:47. | :52:52. | |
So that recount is under way now, and that explains why both sides, | :52:53. | :52:57. | |
the SNP and the Tories here, have been keeping so tight-lipped all | :52:58. | :52:59. | |
nigh. They have said it is on a knife-edge and boy, are they right. | :53:00. | :53:05. | |
So, that 2.00 declaration I promised you earlier will not be happen, | :53:06. | :53:09. | |
there is a recount on its way and straight after that announcement, a | :53:10. | :53:12. | |
deathly hush here at the Sports Centre, nobody is sure how this is | :53:13. | :53:17. | |
going to turn out. Wow, 36 votes would be aer have very close result | :53:18. | :53:23. | |
indeed. I don't know if either of our SNP or Conservative panellist, | :53:24. | :53:28. | |
which way is it? I don't know, but as somebody who didn't win a | :53:29. | :53:32. | |
Westminster election, with only 48 votes I know exactly how they will | :53:33. | :53:36. | |
be feeling just now. We are both agreed to reserve our position on | :53:37. | :53:41. | |
this matter. You don't know either. I have no idea. When it gets town do | :53:42. | :53:47. | |
36 it is you know so tight. Does that surprise you it is as close? | :53:48. | :53:52. | |
Think it was a key seat for the Tories to take, I think they had | :53:53. | :53:56. | |
high expectations to take it, so interesting but it is so close, | :53:57. | :54:00. | |
hopefully the counters have been accurate in their next round and get | :54:01. | :54:05. | |
the result, the right way. Indeed. OK, lots of talk about Nick Clegg's | :54:06. | :54:11. | |
constituency, in Sheffield Hallam, and that he may be under | :54:12. | :54:16. | |
considerable pressure in that particular seat, obviously, the | :54:17. | :54:19. | |
former leader of the Liberal Democrats, and former Deputy Prime | :54:20. | :54:22. | |
Minister, that would be a significant loss for the Liberal | :54:23. | :54:27. | |
Democrat, he is also the party's Brexit spokesperson. We are hearing | :54:28. | :54:31. | |
from Amber Rudd, who is under pressure in Hastings and Rye, she is | :54:32. | :54:37. | |
saying that she is confident but not complacent of holding her seat. | :54:38. | :54:41. | |
Another Scottish declaration to confirm for you, from Kilmarnock and | :54:42. | :54:46. | |
louden, the SNP holding that constituency Alan Brown, he has been | :54:47. | :54:54. | |
reelected there. The result 19690 votes. Labour's Laura Dover second. | :54:55. | :55:10. | |
The turn out there, 63%. So the SNP with 42% of the vote, Labour on 29, | :55:11. | :55:19. | |
the Conservatives on 27, the Liberal Democrats on 2. And compared to | :55:20. | :55:28. | |
2015, the SNP vote down 13% in Kilmarnock, Labour down 1, the | :55:29. | :55:31. | |
Conservatives up 14. And the Liberal Democrats vote up slightly as well. | :55:32. | :55:41. | |
So, the SNP to Labour swing is 5.9%, but the biggest gain in terms of | :55:42. | :55:45. | |
vote share of course, to the Conservative, quick reaction to that | :55:46. | :55:49. | |
result, and the others that we have had so far from Brian Taylor. | :55:50. | :55:54. | |
Conservatives up, up, up and the forecast is they will take Angus, | :55:55. | :55:59. | |
regaining a seat for some time has been an SNP. I recall when the | :56:00. | :56:03. | |
Westminster constituency was held by Peter Fraser, you have to go back | :56:04. | :56:08. | |
quite a wile while, through Mike Weir and beyond, to see a time when | :56:09. | :56:11. | |
the Tories were doing that, the swings they are getting across, the | :56:12. | :56:16. | |
vote gains rather they are getting across the other constituencies, | :56:17. | :56:20. | |
would signal that will not be entirely on its own, it's a good | :56:21. | :56:24. | |
victory for the Tories. And a quick word from do you. I think Angus, I | :56:25. | :56:30. | |
think has been declared now and Dundee East is a hold for the SNP, | :56:31. | :56:35. | |
no surprise in Dundee East. Particularly, there is an irony here | :56:36. | :56:38. | |
in that the Conservatives seem to be doing well in Scotland, because they | :56:39. | :56:43. | |
didn't fight it ass a UK contest, they fought it ass a Scottish | :56:44. | :56:47. | |
contest and you were almost banking on voters seeing it in that way too. | :56:48. | :56:51. | |
It seems to reinforce the constitutional issue. Let us confirm | :56:52. | :56:59. | |
some of these results for you. Yes, the Angus constituency has gone to | :57:00. | :57:03. | |
the Conservatives. Here are the details. So the Conservatives | :57:04. | :57:10. | |
gaining Angus from the SNP, Kirstene Hair, the winner there, with 18448. | :57:11. | :57:16. | |
She stood at the Holyrood election hast year, and was unsuccessful but | :57:17. | :57:20. | |
she is now on her way to Westminster, as the new MP for | :57:21. | :57:26. | |
Angus, defeating the SNP's Mike Weir, a veteran of the House of | :57:27. | :57:32. | |
Commons, 15503 voters to him. Labour's William Campbell third. The | :57:33. | :57:36. | |
Liberal Democrat's Clive Sneddon in fourth. | :57:37. | :57:43. | |
A turn out in Angus of 63%. So here are the details. | :57:44. | :57:52. | |
Now, look at how that has changed since 2015. The Tory vote is up 17%. | :57:53. | :58:04. | |
The SNP vote down 16. Labour up 4, and the Liberal Democrats up | :58:05. | :58:08. | |
slightly. So, a swing in Angus, of 16.3% from | :58:09. | :58:16. | |
the SNP, to the Conservatives. There is the result from Dundee | :58:17. | :58:20. | |
East. The SNP have held in Dundee East. East. Perhaps their safest | :58:21. | :58:24. | |
seat in the country if I remember correctly. The SNP's Stewart Hosie, | :58:25. | :58:31. | |
former deputy leader of the party re-elected. | :58:32. | :58:38. | |
The Conservatives Eleanor Price in second place, with 11746. | :58:39. | :58:56. | |
This used to be Labour held territory, they are now in third | :58:57. | :59:02. | |
place there, the SNP with a 43% vote share. The Conservatives on 27. | :59:03. | :59:05. | |
Labour pushed into third place on 26. The Liberal Democrats on 4. | :59:06. | :59:12. | |
The SNP vote down 17%. Even in Dundee East, an SNP stronghold, the | :59:13. | :59:16. | |
Tory volt up 12 there, Labour up 6 and the Liberal Democrats up | :59:17. | :59:21. | |
slightly. So the swing in Dundee East. From | :59:22. | :59:27. | |
the SNP to the Conservatives, of 14.6%, but Stewart hosier is | :59:28. | :59:30. | |
re-elected and will be making his way back to the House of Commons. | :59:31. | :59:34. | |
Here is the picture across Scotland so far, the SNP have four seat, but | :59:35. | :59:39. | |
they are down two. Labour have one and that is is a gain for them. The | :59:40. | :59:43. | |
Conservatives have won the Angus seat, we have been reporting on it. | :59:44. | :59:48. | |
That is up one, a gain for them and six MPs so far elected in Scotland. | :59:49. | :59:59. | |
We can cross to the Argyll and Bute count. One of the largest | :00:00. | :00:05. | |
constituencies, the most geographically channelling, Andreas | :00:06. | :00:13. | |
Wolf is there. What are you hearing? Yes, result isn't expected here | :00:14. | :00:20. | |
until about 5.30. A short while ago Brendan O'Hara the MP here until a | :00:21. | :00:26. | |
short while ago walked in, and he wasn't looking very happy, it seems | :00:27. | :00:30. | |
as if it is going to be a very very close run between the SNP and the | :00:31. | :00:38. | |
Tories, Gary mull screen any is the candidate, and that would be very | :00:39. | :00:43. | |
interesting, because the Tories haven't held this seat till, they | :00:44. | :00:50. | |
haven't been holding this seat here since 1987. Although it was a | :00:51. | :00:54. | |
slightly different constituency at that point as well. And it is also | :00:55. | :00:59. | |
looking interesting further down the scale, so to say, this seat was held | :01:00. | :01:05. | |
by the Liberal Democrats for 28 years, until 2015, and Alan Reid was | :01:06. | :01:09. | |
the MP here for a number of years, he stood against in this election, | :01:10. | :01:14. | |
and it is now not even clear whether he will come in in third place or | :01:15. | :01:19. | |
maybe the Labour candidate Michael Kelly will have beat him to the | :01:20. | :01:25. | |
third place. Now Michael Kelly is a rather young candidate, and only | :01:26. | :01:31. | |
this week, he walked out of a hustings, so, it is definitely the | :01:32. | :01:34. | |
Corbyn effect that we are seeing there as well. Really an interesting | :01:35. | :01:39. | |
night, and we are in for the long-haul here. Thank you very much. | :01:40. | :01:47. | |
Often the last constituency to declare in Scotland, in UK General | :01:48. | :01:52. | |
Election, and just to underline the news that we had there, the sense is | :01:53. | :01:57. | |
it is the Conservatives that are challenging the SNP hard, not the | :01:58. | :02:03. | |
Liberal Democrats, who used to hold the Argyll and Bute constituencies, | :02:04. | :02:05. | |
very interesting developments from there and across the country. Let us | :02:06. | :02:08. | |
catch up with our political panel. Your thoughts on the results we have | :02:09. | :02:13. | |
had so far. Yes, some good results in terms of the hold, Martin | :02:14. | :02:20. | |
Docherty, Alan Brown, that Dundee West result for Stuart hosier as | :02:21. | :02:26. | |
well. For the SNP. Disappointing, about Angus, of course, that | :02:27. | :02:32. | |
constituency, Mike Weir. 15th safe seats He was a stall warts for the | :02:33. | :02:37. | |
party and a strong force in Westminster. Looking at the results | :02:38. | :02:41. | |
so far it is close to a number of the opinion polls round 40 odd | :02:42. | :02:46. | |
percent, and you know, maybe there is that tactical vote towards the | :02:47. | :02:48. | |
Conservatives that we have discussed. We touched upon the Tory | :02:49. | :02:54. | |
campaign, one reflection I would make, though, is that Ruth I think, | :02:55. | :02:59. | |
Ruth Davidson did depart from the UK campaign, and I think she was really | :03:00. | :03:03. | |
uncomfortable with the Tory manifesto. Uncomfortable with the | :03:04. | :03:07. | |
social policies, you could see that when she was pushed hard on issued | :03:08. | :03:14. | |
on matter, I don't think she was comfortable with the campaign they | :03:15. | :03:18. | |
were fighting. Theresa May went into reverse gear calling the election | :03:19. | :03:21. | |
and moving away from her manifesto position, so it is an interesting | :03:22. | :03:25. | |
divergence between Scotland and the rest of the UK. | :03:26. | :03:29. | |
If you're losing your 15th safest seat in Scotland, perhaps the exit | :03:30. | :03:39. | |
poll is right. If it is right and the SNP holds 54 seats, that's still | :03:40. | :03:44. | |
a victory and it's still way more than... Losing their momentum? We | :03:45. | :03:53. | |
more than the 12 seats we health before 2015. It could be the case | :03:54. | :03:57. | |
that some pro-independence voters have gone to the Labour Party. We | :03:58. | :04:01. | |
shared support in | :04:02. | :04:02. |