Part One Election 2017

Part One

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Good evening and welcome to the BBC Election Centre. Tonight is the


third time in just over two years that we have come here to discover


the result of a major UK-wide poll. In 2015, David Cameron's election


victory led of course to the 2016 referendum he promised, resulting in


the vote for Brexit and Cameron's resignation, then this election


called by Theresa May in her words to guarantee stability and certainty


for the years ahead. A three-act drama. First indications of whether


she's got what she wanted or whether Jeremy Corbyn's a dashed her hopes


will come with the exit poll at 10. Who gets to Number Ten? To Jeremy


Vine's finishing line. Welcome to our virtual Downing Street where we


watched in 2015 as Conservative constituencies paved a path to


Number Ten and Labour were left a long way behind. What will happen


tonight? Will the Conservatives get the 326 seats they need to win


outright? Or will Labour close the gap? Earlier today the party leaders


were filmed casting their votes, just as nearly 47 million of us had


the right to do. And the first actual result will help confirm or


cast doubt on this exit poll. In the race to be first to deliver, it's


Newcastle and Sunderland going head-to-head and sew Fay ray worth


is in Sunderland. These are some of the 80 sixth formers poised to grab


the ballot boxes. Sunderland South has been the first to declare since


1992. This year they have competition. Newcastle is after


their crown. Can they do it? We should know in about 45 minutes'


time. Our team here in the election p Election Centre will be gathering


the results, analysing the contests and updating our predictions. Emily


mately is able to look at each of the 650 individual constituencies


and delve into their deep political make-up. Never before have we gone


into an election with such diverse predictions. This is where we


discover what the results will be. My giant touch screen has all the


data. In a moment I should be able to predict which seats could be


changing hands. And Mishaal Hussain will be joined by politicians and


commentators to assess why what happened happened and what the


likely conwhenses are. I'm here throughout the night getting


thoughts, views and verdicts on what the message delivered by the people


mean force the parties, policies and some political careers. With me, our


Political Correspondent Laura Kuenssberg talking about the exit


poll with a few moments to go. Just over 20 seconds to go until Big Ben


strikes ten, then I'll be able to reveal the results of the BBC, ITV


and Sky joint poll. Over 30,000 people, 144 polling stations were


questioned today and by the magic, we are able to predict what we think


has happened tonight. And what we are saying is the


Conservatives are the largest party. Note, they don't have an overall


majority at this stage. 314 for the Conservatives, that's down 17. 266


for Labour, that's Up 34. The SNP, the Scottish National Party, 34,


down 22, treat that figure with a bit of caution for technical reasons


about the exit poll which I don't need to explain right now. The Lib


Dems on 14, up six. Plaid Cymru stays on three, the Greens on one,


none for Ukip and the others 18. Well, the Prime Minister called this


election because she wanted, as she put it, certainty and stability.


This doesn't seem, at this stage, to look like certainty and stability.


It could still be that the Conservatives at the end of the day


have an overall majority. They need another 12 seats to get that. 326,


as Jeremy said a moment ago. That's just the exit poll. The reality, as


Sophie was saying, we get the first result in 45 minutes. That is how


things look at this stage of the evening. Laura, what do you make of


it? If these numbers are correct, Theresa May's played a high-risk


political game and she appears to have possibly lost her gamble. She


only called this election to give herself her own mandate and some


breathing space During the bumpy ride of Brexit. A few months ago at


the start of the campaign, she seemed very unasellable. An


insurgent Labour Party under Jeremy Corbyn may well have dashed the


Conservative hopes. This exit poll result is not what either main party


have been predicting, privately this would be another political surprise


with both the British public again defying the expectations of the two


largest political parties. The Tories do still look like they'll be


the largest party. They may yet see themselves with a majority. But


Theresa May's promise throughout this campaign was to offer strong


and stable leadership. That was her catch phrase. She may well end the


night diminished with a situation eshe even more uncertain -- even


more uncertain. The real results as nay come in through the night will


actually dictate what happens next. Maybe at this stage given that we


are in this territory of waiting to see whether our exit poll is


correct, let's just assume for a moment it is and look at what the


new House of Commons would be like, Jeremy, can we do that?


Yes, this does feel quite sensational. The key figure is 326,


just over half the MPs in the House of Commons gives you a majority,


David Cameron got just there in the last election and the exit poll has


the Conservatives falling short. So down 17 seats, 314. They can't with


their MPs outvote the other MPs in the House of Commons. That is what


an overall majority means. As has been said, it would take a bit of


error to push the Conservatives over the line. It might happen. It will


be a fascinating night. The other parties - Labour first of all 266 up


for man 30 seats. The SNP, going down to 34. There are a lot of 50-50


calls so that figure may change. The Lib Dems have added six seats we


think to their tally, 14 they would have, so that is an improvement for


them. The same for Plaid Cymru, three as last time, the Greens


having one and the others, the Northern Ireland parties in 18.


18 others. So let us go back to the Government benches and stress that


this gap here is very small. It's possible that it closes during the


night, but at the moment, under our exit poll, the Conservative party


have lost their overall majority and will be short by 12 votes. 12 MPs


short of an outright majority in the House of Commons. David.


Thank you very much, Jeremy. I'm joined by two senior politicians


from the two main parties. John McDonnell, Shadow Chancellor for


Labour and Michael Fallon, the Defence Secretary. Mr Fallon, if


this is right, it was a terrible error to call this election in the


first place, wasn't it? Let us see some actual results to see if it's


borne out. This is a projection, not a result. The exit polls have been


wrong in the past, I think in 2015 they underestimated our vote, I


think in a couple of elections before that, they overestimated our


votes. So we need to see some actual results before we can interpret this


one way or the other. Put it like this, if this were to be close to


the result, in other words that you maybe just had a majority, you


certainly wouldn't have what you were all looking for, which was a


big, safe majority in the House of Commons - people were talking about


a majority of 30, 40, 50, a few weeks ago? We didn't. I never


believed the original poll as showing us 20 polls ahead. In an


election, you get a tightening between the major parties, that was


clearly happening this time. As I say, it's very early to start on the


basis of what is a projection before we've had a single actual result.


Let us wait and see the seats coming through. John McDonnell what about


you, you are encouraged by the prediction of 34. If that happens,


you and Jeremy Corbyn remain in charge of the Labour Party


presumably? I'm going to agree with Michael for the first time possibly


ever. There you are. We have to have scepticism about all polls at the


moment. We've got it wrong in the past in terms of polling so I'm


agreeing, let us see some results. So what do you have to say about the


election campaign from your point of view? Well, we tried to have an


extremely positive campaign, we modelled it around Jeremy's


character. If you remember when he stood for the leadership, his slogan


at the time was honest politics, straight talking, that's what we


have tried to do. A positive campaign throughout. If it's


reflected in this sort of level of support, it changes the nature of


political discourse to a large extent in our country. So people


have got fed up of the yaboo politics and the nasty tactics that


have gone on. A positive campaign, if it comes out like this, I think


it will improve politics in this country overall. What did you think


about their campaign? Very nasty. At times it dragged us into the but


thor and I didn't like that. But let us put that to one side. If the


result is anywhere near like this, it means positive politics has


actually succeeded. Nasty campaign? I don't agree with that. Our focus


was on... What were you thinking of? Our campaign focus was on


leadership, getting the Brexit negotiations right. It was on


setting out some of the big social and economic challenges that faced


this country which frankly, leaving aside the personal stuff, Labour


ducked and they pretended there was a magic money tree and never really


answered... Michael... Let us not refight the campaign. You have


Brexit talks starting in 11 days' time, serious talks about the future


of this country. It was hardly discussed in the campaign. There was


hardly a stall laid out on Brexit. Now if this is right, Theresa May


hasn't got the sort of massive support from the country she was


hoping to get to allow her to do whatever it is she wanted to do, she


never told us? We did bring the campaign back to Brexit. You never


said what kind of Brexit you were going to have? We set out the 12


negotiating objectives, set out that we want a deep and special


partnership with Europe based on economic corporation, being careful


about the trade while looking for new markets. We never really got


into that. Also on security cooperation. Let's be honest about


this... We never got into the debate on Brexit that we should have had


but also... Is that your fault as much as his? We genuinely did have a


policy. That is the sort of politics people are rejecting - you have got


to be straightforward and honest with people and you shouldn't parody


other party's political positions. People reject that now. What was


interesting was that Theresa May went with one question about Brexit


to the electorate and that was going to be the central question of the


whole election and people said, there are other issues we want to


discuss. OK. I remember the 1974 general election if you remember


when the government then Ted Heath went to the country and said who


rules Britain, it was the miners' strike at the time and they said,


it's not about that, it's about living standards and Public Services


and the future of the country. Neither main party got into the


details on Brexit. What was called the progressive coalition, it would


tot up to 318 seats as opposed to 314 of the Tories. They might be


able to rely on the DUP in Northern Ireland but we could be in a


position with the combined forces being equal to the Conservatives.


That could make for some very interesting days ahead. . Let us


remind ourselves of where the exit poll is. We have projected it on the


front of New Broadcasting House and I hope we can show you that. There


we are. 2017 election, Conservatives the largest party, note not


Conservatives at this stage on the exit poll with a majority. Labour on


266. That is up 34. The SNP 34, down 22 from disillusion. The other


parties there. Ukip 0. Plaid Cymru three. 17 short of an overall


majority, the Conservatives. Now to Sunderland. The first result we get


from you Sophie will give us a clue whether these gentlemen are feeling


more cheerful or less. It certainly will. The ballot boxes are being run


in. The first was in here at 10. 03. We have a lot of sixth form student,


80 of them, bringing them in and giving them to the counters.


Sunderland south has been the fastest to declare, their record is


45 minutes, they did it in 48 minutes, but they have Newcastle


snapping on their heels so we'll have to wait and see who gets there


first tonight. It's a really well oiled machine, they have lighter


ballot papers, only folding them in half. They have even checked out the


routes to get to this sports centre to make sure the vans take the


fastest routes possible. You can see how hard they are all working there.


Just to make sure that they do get in here and they retain their crown.


Thank you very much. Well, let's go and join Andrew Marr. He's at


Maidenhead, where Theresa May's waiting for her count. Good evening,


you've heard the exit poll down there. What's the reaction been?


Well, the reaction from senior Conservatives and I've talked to a


few, is they flatly don't believe it. They say that's not the reaction


they've got up and down the country. They've been talking to candidates.


It cannot be true. One of the reasons they're saying that is that


it would be a huge disaster for the Conservative Party if it was


accurate. If you look at the numbers, this whole election was


about ensuring that Theresa May had the Leeway to do a proper deal on


Brexit afterwards. She needed a bigger majority to do that. She


hasn't got that it appears. She can bring in a small platoon of


Democratic Unionists from Ireland to help her. She can't do what David


Cameron did, in similar circumstances, when he brought in


the Liberal Democrats. Because of course, on the great issue of the


day, Brexit, the two sides are on completely opposite opinions. She's


in real, real trouble. At the moment, we don't believe it is the


best they can do. Let's join the other party leader,


Nick Robinson is in Islington North, Jeremy Corbyn's seat, in the dark.


Good evening, Nick. Have you had a reaction to this exit poll? Jeremy


Corbyn arrived here minutes before the exit poll. He looked pretty


cheerful as did his spin doctor, chief advisor. Everybody will be


extremely cautious about this exit poll because it comes as such a


surprise. In line with some of those polls that showed a 1%, 2% Tory


lead. It will give enormous power to Jeremy Corbyn, not just within


Parliament, but within his party too. There were few people around Mr


Corbyn who believed he would win this election. Two years ago, they


never believed he would fight this election. They believe they have


shifted British politics and shift today for good. They believe that --


shifted it for good. They believe they have put ideas that were in the


extreme or on the margins, ideas of investment in the NHS and the rest,


back firmly in the centre of British politics. He will be strengthened.


What he didn't anticipate is that he might have a powerful role to play


in the future of this country, when it comes to Brexit. If the exit poll


is right, if Theresa May effectively has to do deals in order to get her


way, that gives Labour potentially enormous power in terms of the deals


they are willing to do and whether they will work with Tory rebels and


others when it comes to those crucial votes on Brexit in 2018/19.


Thank you very much Nick. We live at this stage in the evening on rumours


from places. We have just heard a rumour, I put it no stronger than


that, that the Tories may be in trouble in Hastings. It's a tight


race there. Amber Rudd, the Home Secretary, who stood in for Theresa


May in that debate and is thought to have done a good job, we're told


that in Hastings she may be in difficulty. Let's look at some other


seats with Emily. Yes, it's impossible to predict at this stage


anything too closely. It is impossible to stress too much how


delicately we are treading given that the exit poll, as things stand,


is untested. We have not had a single result in. But if it is on


track, these are some of the seats Tory held at the moment that have a


90% chance of turning red, being taken by Labour tonight. Some of


them are incredibly tight marginals, Croydon central, Derby north. Some


of them are higher up the target list, Bedford, around 11 or 12 on


that target list. Let me take you into some. I will show you what we


are able to do now. This is Croydon central. The Housing Minister there,


the current administration, the Government. You can see what is


being projected on the forecast, a likely Labour gain. You can see the


Leave vote here split pretty evenly. We don't know if that will come into


play. Some of the others that we will show you, Bolton west, Theresa


May launched her campaign in this neck of the woods, not this exact


seat. Very tightly fought here. They need 0. 8% swing to take it from the


Conservatives. The sort of figures that the forecast comes up with


suggest Labour would be on a nine-point lead in pretty much all


of these seeds. That's why we're -- seats, that's why they have a good


chance of taking them. This would go red as well. Bedford, for example,


13 on the Labour target list. It looks pretty tight at the moment.


Tony Blair took it three times for Labour here. It's not very often


you'll hear Jeremy Corbyn and Tony Blair in the same sentence, but we


could be looking at some interesting changes of seats. That's all we're


going to say here. Bedford there projected to be at least ten points


between Labour and the Conservatives. One more, brighton


next to the Green seat at the moment. Simon Kirby on this forecast


could be out for the Conservatives. We are projecting here a Labour gain


with a lead of another 10%. All these, we tread carefully. When we


get the first result, we will know whether the exit poll is on track.


We are on eggshells at the moment. If you've just joined us, we're not


saying that the Conservatives have an overall majority. We're simply


saying they're the largest party and a lot of the discussion that we've


started having, if the exit poll is true, what are the implications of


that. And no-one better perhaps than some of the senior politicians


involved in this sort of thing before, Michelle has one with her.


With me up here is Ming Campbell, former leader of the Liberal


Democrats. Good evening. Good evening. Your reaction to the exit


poll? Well, David Dimbleby took the word eggshells right out of my


mouth. With the history of these polls in the past, it's very


dangerous to seek to draw conclusions, which are totally


unchallengeable. One thing is certain, that Mrs May's effort to


get a large majority in order to enhance her ability to drive a hard


deal with the European Union has simply exploded. If these results


are - If these results. The exit poll shows your party adding seats


in the House of Commons going up to 14 Liberal Democrat MPs. Could you


imagine the Liberal Democrats being part of some sort prove grossive


alliance in the Commons? Well, Tim Farron made it very clear, he said


no pact, no deal, no coalition. We've had our fingers burned by


coalition. I don't need to tell you that. So I find it very, very


difficult to see how Tim Farron would be able to go back on what


he's previously said and to persuade the membership of the Liberal


Democrats that a coalition was a good idea from our point of view. A


progressive alliance would be rather something different. Progressive


alliance implies, though, a commitment to support the Government


which happens to be in power. The notion of a progressive alliance is


that it would supplant the Conservatives. On the issue of


Brexit, the Liberal Democrat position is very clear, as compared


to Jeremy Corbyn's position, which frankly, almost defies definition. I


can't possibly see an arrangement of the kind between Labour and the


Liberal Democrats which would in any way overcome that quite significant


difference of opinion. As far as Tim Farron is concerned, however


difficult it might be to put to the mebds and with the -- members and


with the memories of the to 10-2015 -- 2010-2015 experience,


nevertheless, it campaign was about wanting to fight a hard Brexit.


Should Tim Farron consider some kind of arrangement with the


Conservatives? Well, that's equally impossible. Mrs May made it clear


before and after calling the election, she said no deal is better


than a poor deal. She's willing to accept the hardest possible Brexit.


How could Tim Farron possibly alie himself with that nor could he take


the party with him, nor the over 100,000 people - doubled our


membership since 2010 - Even having involvement in the negotiations? We


know about coalitions. We know about the extent that it's very difficult


indeed. After the last coalition, the major party gets the credit for


everything done and the junior party takes the blame for the things that


people don't like. Therefore, I've - it will be down to him. He'll have


to make his own decision. I should be astonished if he would


countenance any kind of coalition either with Labour or the


Conservatives. What he can say is we will deal with these, everybody


issue on a vote by vote basis. We will not have, if you like,


opposition for opposition's take. But we will consider everything on


its merits. That is something he can sell to his own party. It's


something which will preserve his and indeed the party's integrity.


Lord Campbell, thank you. There are fascinating scenes up in


Sunderland, further north than London, there's still a bit of


daylight, as the students, look at them with these boxes, bringing the


ballot boxes to the central count and white gloved, handing them


carefully. All trained to do this, both Sunderland and Newcastle have


been competing and indeed the man who organised Sunderland last time


round has been giving advice to Slough as well in Buckinghamshire.


They wanted to get their result in as fast as possible. The boxes have


to be opened. There is a slight problem here, this time round, which


is that if people go who have postal ballots and put them in these boxes,


they then have to be individually verified. That takes a bit of time.


But they're saying now, I think Newcastle says they'll have theirs


by 11pm. Sunderland, I hope, a bit before. Let's speak to our reporter


down there. Hello, can you hear us in Newcastle?


David, hello, yes. It's looking a great race this. Everyone was


gasping when you think Sunderland might be a few minutes before


Newcastle. That's definitely not what they want to hear here tonight.


They are clock watching here. Frantic activity behind me. The


first ballot box came in about 10. 07. 128 in total are going to be


making their way through to the arena. We think we've got 50 of


those boxes in so far. What Newcastle are hoping to do is get a


declaration result announced here by as early as roughly, maybe, 10.


45pm. If they do that, they will become the first to declare a result


on general election night and crucially, they want to beat


Sunderland. They have a very healthy rivalry that's been going on for


many elections in the past. They keep reminding us here tonight that


they beat Sunderland last year in the EU referendum result. I was here


that night. Tonight is no exception when it comes down to the precise


process of the boxes coming in to the hall here and the counting


getting under way. If they are on track, and they're looking pretty


optimistic, maybe before 11pm and before Sunderland.


Thank you very much. Of course, this is, I mean it's great to have the


race. But it's important too, because those first results will


give us a clue through our psephologist really, a clue whether


the exit poll is accurate or not. We'll be hearing from them. I'm


joined by Stuart Hosie, the former MP for Dundee east, is standing for


Dundee east. Thank you for joining us. What do you make of this exit


poll, which looks, if it's right, rather damaging for the SNP, down 22


is what the exit poll is saying. Well, first of all, it is only an


exit poll. So all of the usual caveats and pinches of salt should


apply. The main story from it, if it's accurate is that Theresa May


has given up a majority and we now have again, if the numbers are


correct, 314 Tories, versus 314 others and 22 from the Northern


Irish parties. That's an extraordinary thing. For Theresa May


to call this election, for narrow party advantage, and then if these


numbers are correct, to blow it incredibly. If she has blown it, in


the sense that she doesn't have an overall majority, would you allow


her to go through with the Queen's speech in the House of Commons, is


the SNP, assuming you have at least a substantial wedge in the new


House? Well, again, if this poll is correct, it would still point to the


SNP winning the election in Scotland, which is what we set out


to achieve. I don't recall us ever voting for significant Tory policy


in the past. It would be hard to see in the current climate with an


austerity cuts, hard Brexit party that we'd want to support them in


any way in this future Parliament. We've heard well, let me put it like


this, the reason that we were, I said at the beginning, we were


cautious about SNP on 34, down 22, is we're told that a lot of these


are very tight, the polling is suggesting 50/50 so you don't quite


know which way to call them. Two people in particular, Angus


Robertson, your leader in Westminster, and Alex Salmond, the


former leader of the SNP are both said to be under threat if this exit


poll is correct. Have you got any information from them about how they


think they've done? No, I don't have any specific information from those


seats at all. But common sense would tell us that Alex Salmond, a


fantastic Parliamentary former like Angus Robertson with their track


records in the constituencies would have an edge over any insurgent Tory


campaign. As I say, it will take some hours before this all comes out


in the wash. Thank you very much. When it comes out in the wash,


perhaps you'll be very kind and come back in the light of reality rather


than speculation tell us what your position is. Indeed, I'll be


delighted to, as long as it's stopped raining by then.


A last word from you two about this then. You heard Ming Campbell


talking about what would happen and everybody's dumping on the Tories at


the moment for having called this election in the first place. I mean


dumping on you, saying it was a misjudgment. I think this was the


right thing to do to have a clear and strong mandate as we go into the


Brexit negotiations. Theresa May didn't have that mandate last year,


when she took over from David Cameron. It was clear that other


opposition parties were in the business of frustrating a successful


Brexit. It was the right thing to do to ask the British people for a


mandate. We don't know yet know, with not a single result in, we


don't yet know what the result is. It was the right thing to, do but if


it goes wrong, you will say it was the wrong thing to do. We haven't


got a result yet. You can't say it was the right thing to do, if it


turns out wrong. You'll be blaming Theresa May for having called. It I


think it was right to ask the British people for their support for


a strong mandate to negotiate this very complex Brexit. That was the


right thing to do. Because she inherited from David Cameron a


previous manifesto which was designed before the Brexit


referendum. Your defence Shadow Foreign


Secretary, Emily Thornberry, she's just said she thinks that Theresa


May on the basis of this exit poll should resign. Would that be a


call... Look, it's an... Don't say again we don't know the exit poll


result. I'm so cautious on these occasions. Assume it's right? If it


is right, I think her position is becoming increasingly untenable and


I'll tell you why and, Michael, you need to listen to what the people


were saying - if Theresa May promises on seven different


occasions she wouldn't go for a snap general election and she went for it


on the basis that she wanted to secure a mandate she already had,


people saw through that. They saw this as an election which was for


party advantage rather than the interests of the country. It looks


as though they have rejected her as a result of that. Well, she didn't


have a mandate. Oh, please, we voted for Article 50. We just voted for


it. She did not have a mandate. People argue she should have called


a general election earlier. People have rejected this, they thought


she's putting party advantage above that of the country when what we


need to do is address the real issue about the economy, Public Services


and... You have said that over the last six or seven weeks. Laura, what


is your thought on this? Scepticism from both parties. One senior Labour


figure said to me in text, this doesn't seem believable from where


they sit, a Conservative said it feels wrong. This is an extremely


extensive exit poll and Theresa May, having looked unassailable at the


start of this campaign, had a very bumpy time. Whether that was over a


social care issue, the manifesto promise she was forced to tweak and


change or over the issue of police cuts that became a huge pressure for


her in the closing weeks of the campaign. We heard from voters on


the doorstep around the UK, some people were perhaps, not resentful,


but a bit peeved about having another election. Until April 18th


you were also sitting there saying it was not the right thing to have


an election, you were saying it would be the wrong thing and people


around the country saw that. They were sceptical about Theresa May


going to the country. I think they understood the central argument that


there were other parties determined to frustrate the Brexit process to


vote against it. We heard the Liberal Democrats were going to have


a campaign for a second referendum using their peers from the House of


Lords. But surely it will end up being seen to be a huge political


mistake, to have called an election that she didn't need to do. Even if


the result is anywhere near this, it's a catastrophic error and people


have seen through it. We haven't had a result yet. Exactly. Let us wait


until we have had a result. The exit poll... If even if it's near this.


You are getting carried away now. Not at all, I'm very sceptical. The


exit poll may have egg on its face, in which case the BBC, ITV and Sky


will have egg on its face, I'm glad to say we are not out here on our


own, for once. Getting your excuses in early! You were getting yours in


early. Let us look at the battleground then, assuming this -


well I'll assume nothing - Jeremy Vine.


Listening to your conversation, we shouldn't assume very much at all.


We had the exit poll. Here is what I am going to show you. Conservative


seats, the most marginal and vulnerable because they were so


tight last time. Gower won by only 27 votes in 2015 by the


Conservatives, Derby North, Croydon Central and so on. Down we go, down


this first page of 32 seats, the Conservatives' most vulnerable


seats. We fit the exit poll into this and let us see what we think


has happened. Labour have made a land grab here. Ghouler staying


Conservative under the poll, Derby North and Croydon central going to


Labour. A lot of damage, Morley and Outwood there. A lot of damage in


the first two columns. As the board goes on, the Conservatives start to


defend themselves better. Look at that. It looks as though that is the


extent of the Labour advance but it's a very patchy prediction this,


because here is the second board. 32 more seats, bigger majorities,


Torbay for example, a 3,000 majority and they go up as we go down the


board. What do we think has happened here? Let us take a look. You can


see some of the Labour gains not in places you might expect. Calder


Valley, Pudsey, Labour gains. Exit poll I stress. Labour gaining here.


Enfield Southgate, you member the Michael Portillo moment in 1997 we


have going back to Labour. On that board, Labour have done some more


damage to the Conservatives and it doesn't stop there. We go to even


better defended Conservatives seats there. These are ones that you


wouldn't have thought have gone to any other party when Theresa May


started the election campaign. Here Labour are reaching into seats where


there may be a 5-6,000 majority. Under the exit poll, we have going


Labour, we'll see what happens when we come to the actual results which


surely won't be too long. Let me change the board, turn it around and


look at targets. So when Mrs May called the election, she's thinking,


we are going to gain some Conservative seats. Have they


managed to make any gains in this extraordinary result where they seem


to have reversed? The most vulnerable seat is Chester, Labour


won with only a 93-point margin. Berwickshire and Roxburgh, very


tight. These are the seats the Conservatives you would think go


into first. Here you can see it's very poor performances, very little


going on. They have taken, according to the exit poll, Berwickshire and


Roxburgh, a marginal Scottish seat and we think Wrexham as well there,


Ian Lucas was the MP there, that's gone Conservative. Better story in


Wales and Scotland for the Conservatives than in England. Let


us go to the second board and keep doing these targets. These are safer


seats but still maybe the Conservatives would have had their


eyes on them at the start of the election campaign before things


started to go wrong. Let us see if they won any seats. The


Conservatives have won seats, but who have they got in common? Wales.


Clacton special case because it was Ukip obviously. Dumfries and


Galloway, a Scottish seat, Aberdeenshire West Scotland and


Newport east, that was Labour, that was Wales. So in England, the gains


for the Conservatives seem to be few and far between. One more board for


you. Here we go. These are seats which would have been hard for the


Conservatives to gain. Anything happening here? Let us see. Very


little. Perth and Perthshire. Nothing in gland. Labour have done


some serious damage to Conservative seats in England and may have offset


it with gains in Wales and Scotland. All from the exit poll. We'll have


to see. Boy oh boy are we going to be hung, drawn and quartered if this


is all wrong which it still might well be. We have to go on with what


we have got from the exit poll and there's reaction already to the exit


poll. I'm joined by two people who'll be sitting here during the


evening. The BBC media editor and our Business Editor. Has there been


reaction? This is a massive shock, obviously huge caveats, lots of


people saying that there are lots of close seats so it's too early to


say, but astonishment across the Twittersphere. Caroline Lucas


saying: Jason Groves, the Political Editor


of the Daily Mail, very supportive of Theresa May recently. It says:


Although it's early, there are some big themes emerging on social media.


One is that this is a disaster for Theresa May. Another is there may


well be another election and a third one that people like Lord Ashcroft


are yew none mauls on is that it's going to be a very long night!


Brenda from Bristol said, "not another bloody election". Yes, in a


Bristolian accent which I'll never get close to emulating. We were here


together on referendum night, so there is a similar feel, of course,


as Amol says, you have to be careful, this is a poll and we


haven't actually seen any real results, but the pound is down about


2% already against the dollar, it's also down against the euro. I think


that's not as much about Jeremy Corbyn could be the Prime Minister,


depending on how things may turn out if this exit poll is correct, but it


is about uncertainty. That word we always use when the markets are


looking at a situation, because the markets, the big challenge for the


UK was Brexit. If we are in a position where neither of the


parties have a solid majority and have to go through tough


negotiations, are in weak positions, there could be another election,


this could have a situation where the Scottish referendum could come


back into play, depending on the negotiations. The markets look at


that and would much prefer a 70 majority for Theresa May or a 70


majority for Jeremy Corbyn, whatever their policies may be, because at


least then they could make a judgment on if trajectory. So you


are saying it's uncertainty not thinking there is going to be


possibly a softer Brexit if Theresa May doesn't have the majority? There


is some argument which I don't have a huge amount of sympathy for, which


is the notion that there could be a softer Brexit if there is either a


Jeremy Corbyn-led Government or a hung Parliament and Theresa May


having to put together a coalition. The reason I say that is because on


the uncertainty of would this Government last for five years or


four years, would it last the whole of the Brexit process, would the


Brexit process be put back to Parliament in any substantive way, I


think those concerns would outweigh any notion that there could be a


slightly better deal with Europe. Yes. Because I think those things


are the uncertainties that will loom much larger. That is the reaction


you are getting with the currencies. We have been here before with


Brexit. The currency plunged to 120, we are well above that. It has


already on that 2% just slightly - we have to wait for the first


marginals to really see. The currency traders are making a


fortune? Some will be on the right side of this bet and some will be on


the wrong side. Making a million here, a million there and a billion


here and a billion there. They are all gamblers. It's more than that,


they are making a judgment on the possible strength of the UK economy


in the future. OK. Like resources, they may be right or wrong. I call


it gambling. Anyway, let's go to Scotland. A reminder of the figures


in Scotland. The exit poll gave the SNP down 22. We are going to need a


new word for caveat soon. We are talking extreme caveat because the


SNP is harder than the other places to read. We know according to the


forecast the SNP are on 34 seats, that means they would lose 12 if the


poll is on target. These are some of those that we have been hearing. A


90% chance of them losing. Let me go into the first one. It comes out on


our forecast as a gain for the Conservatives. Aberdeenshire West,


they call this Aberdeenshire West-life because all the candidates


are under 30, Stuart Donaldson, the current MP here, but the forecasts


are suggesting that, even with that massive majority and the


Conservatives needing a swing, on the forecast they would take it. OK,


that is the first possible gain for the Conservatives, looking quite


likely according to the poll. Perth and North Perthshire, this was the


Conservative target, 88, if you can get your head around that. It would


seem as if the Conservative chances in Scotland may be much better than


in England but of course we haven't had a result in yet. This is what


the forecast here is showing. It's what we call a Tory long shot,


they'd need a 9% swing here. That would put the Conservatives on 50%


share of the vote if the poll is accurate. A couple of others the SNP


would lose, this time not to the Conservatives but the Lib Dems. This


one much more tightly fought, JohnNicolson, a former TV presenter,


under the forecast, he goes out and in comes Jo Swinson, last time she


lost her seat the Lib Dem Business Minister in 2015 and she would take


it back on a pretty decent share of the vote, 43%, a big gap there, much


bigger than swing she would need if we are on track. One more, Edinburgh


West number nine on the Lib Dem targets. You can see how the 2015


share has those two top parties, SNP in first place and Lib Dems in


second. On the forecast, this is often a four-way contest, you could


see the Lib Dems taking 40% share of the vote. Now these are all


tentative. But why I'm showing you is, they are the most likely ones to


change colour tonight. There are a lot more in Scotland that we would


call 50-50. They're on the cusp. We wouldn't go further than that at


this stage but that is why the exit poll is in such a caveated mode at


present. These parties are all pro the union,


don't want another referendum on the union. There you go, that might have


something to do with, it certainly if we're seeing that step backwards


from the SNP. What's interesting, for example, in Aberdeenshire west,


I was looking at the Leave vote as well. Aberdeenshire West, 39%, which


looks like quite a low Leave vote, though to put it in context, it's


quite a high Leave vote for Scotland. Maybe that has given the


Conservatives a bit of a chance here. Some of them in Scotland are


in the 70 to 30 model. Thanks very much Emily. Let's go up to Scotland.


To Edinburgh and join Sarah Smith, our Scotland editor. What do you


make of this poll and you'll be entering the same caveats everybody


else has, but if it's true. Absolutely and the SNP themselves


look a little anxious about this. I wouldn't say they think they're on


target to lose that many seats. They were braced for some losses.


Remember, they had such an amazing result two years ago, where they won


56 out of the 59 seats that are in the Scotland. It seemed inevitable


that they were going to lose some of them. This would be remarkable if


the exit poll is any way correct about that. As you were alouding to


with -- alluding to with Emily, the dynamic in Scotland has been


completely different. The SNP are the incumbents and the Tories as the


insurgents, the ones who thought they could take a few seats off the


SNP. They were optimistic about something between six and ten, maybe


even a dozen seats, they would be very happy with that in Scotland.


The campaign narrative here has been different because it's been all


about independence. Because it was just three months ago that Nicola


Sturgeon said she wanted another referendum on Scottish independence


and the Tories have cast themselves as the one party who say they can


stop another independence referendum, the most staunch


defenders of the United Kingdom, though of course, Labour and the Lib


Dems also say they don't want another Scottish referendum. The


Tories have really taken on that mantle of the union and that's what


they hope could propel them to take a good few seats off the SNP


tonight. Thank you very much indeed. Let's go


to Cardiff and join Sian Lloyd. The Plaid Cymru figure was that it


remains at three. What other things have been going on in Wales, do we


expect any other changes? Well, I'm in Cardiff where three of the four


Cardiff constituencies are counting and not expecting any results from


here for quite some time. Carwyn Jones, the First Minister of Wales,


has just been alongside me here. He's just arrived. He's trying to


get a sense of his reaction to this exit poll. Earlier polls were saying


that perhaps the Conservatives could gain nine seats in Wales. Wales has


traditionally been a Labour strong hold. For the past 100 years. It was


only in 1983 the Conservatives had their high water mark here when they


gained 14 seats at the height of Margaret Thatcher's popularity. But


Theresa May was hoping to make inroads here. She came to Wales


three times during this campaign, four different constituencies. She


went to Wrexham, Clwyd south. She was hoping Wales had voted to Leave


that in some of the marginal constituencies that had voted to


leave she would gain support here. She was really targeting them. Of


course, we've got to see what the results are now. Carwyn Jones, the


First Minister of Wales, really led Labour's campaign here in Wales.


Jeremy Corbyn did visit, but he wasn't particularly visible here.


Labour were campaigning under the brand of Welsh Labour, which they


say has been successful for them in the past. What he's just been saying


now is that he doesn't want to comment on it too much, on this exit


poll, of course, it's very early days. But he did make the point that


he didn't feel that Theresa May had engaged with people when she had


come on these visits and he made the point that she hadn't entered into


the debates. Plaid Cymru expected to remain on three. They have been


working very hard on a target seat for them. Their former leader coming


out of retirement to stand as an MP there. They're going to be looking


very closely at that. Also, the rounda, where they've been working


very hard and Leanne chose to launch the Plaid Cymru manifesto. Clive


Myrie is in south London, Tooting, covering Battersea and Putney as


well. We're keeping an eye, obviously on our first result from


Sunderland or wherever. Over to you. Yes, could be very interesting here


in the Wandsworth area. Three constituencies Putney, Justine


Greening, big figure in the party, pretty unassailable it seems


according to the polls. A 10,000 majority. Highly likely to retain


that seat for the Conservatives. It's the Tooting and Battersea seats


that could be very interesting indeed. Tooting, Sadiq Khan's old


seat, now the Mayor of London. In the by-election, once he stood down


in 2016, it was held by the Labour Party. But the majority was just


over 6,000. The Conservatives have coveted Tooting for the last two


election cycles at least. They've poured money in here. They've poured


campaigners in here. They really felt, certainly up until the last


four or five days of the campaign, that they were making inroads. I've


talked to some of the Labour activists here. They're pretty


confident that they will hang on to Tooting. They've been putting out


mail shots to all their activists in the area to come to Tooting, to


campaign and their feeling is that they've done pretty well on the


doorstep. The final seat here Battersea, held by the Conservatives


a majority of 8,000, but that tonight is being described as on a


knife edge. If the overall exit poll that you've been talking about


throughout the evening is anything to go by, it could well be that the


Labour Party have taken that seat. Very interesting times here at the


Wandsworth count. We're waiting for Sunderland south. Before we get it,


there they are counting. Emily, tell us what we should look out for in


terms of verifying the exit poll, if you can do that? This is the first


real test of the exit poll and whether it's on target. This is the


2015 share of the vote. It's solid Labour. We don't expect that to


change. Labour then on 55% of the vote at the moment, Ukip in second


place and the Conservatives in third place. If our forecast is on track.


Then Labour's share of the vote goes up to 68%. Keep that figure in your


mind. When the real result comes in, if it's on or around there, we know


that the exit poll is correct in this seat in this part of the world


at least. This is what our forecast is suggesting: There could be a big


drop for Ukip there, down 15%. Some gains even for the Conservatives


here and large gains of 13% for Labour. So those are the sorts of


figures that we'll be putting side by side the exit poll to see if it


all makes sense. John Curtis was our man in charge of the exit poll, done


by these three broadcasting companies. What would you like to


say about it, are you surprised by it? I think we should always start


with exit polls by suggesting what we can rule out. It seems to me


unless the exit poll is correcty wrong, that the Prime Minister has


failed to achieve her principal objective, which was that she was


going to achieve a land slide, a very big majority for her party, in


the next House of Commons and there by providing her with rather more


wriggle room over Brexit. The second thing that we can probably rule out


is that the Labour Party is going to end up with more seats than the


Conservatives. We are probably talking about Theresa May or


somebody from the Conservative Party heading next administration. Those


are two things we can rule out. There after, whilst our exit poll at


the moment is saying that its central forecast is 314 Conservative


seats, which is short of an overall majority, I will remind you that two


years ago, we said it would be 316 Conservative seats and it ended up


being 331. We certainly, certainly cannot rule out the possibility that


the Conservatives will still have an overall majority, but maybe one that


isn't much bigger than the one they had before the election was called.


Thanks very much. Reminder of how it would look in the House of Commons,


Jeremy, are you ready? Yeah. Good. Let's see. OK. Let's take a look at


the House of Commons. We have a device here which we're looking at,


our coalition builder. When the election campaign began, we thought


this is not going to be how it ends up. We are looking now at who and


how you put together the 326 MPs you need for an overall majority in the


House of Commons. So, what we have here are the numbers. We have the


Conservatives 314, Labour 266, from the exit poll. We keep having to


say, without having a result yet. What we're going to do is pull them


out one at a time. Let's bring the Conservatives first. 314. As you see


here, we have the 326 line just here. Can they find some alliances


that will give them a majority in the House of Commons to maybe not a


coalition, maybe just a working arrangement, something to get the


Queen's speech through. 314 for the Conservatives, if that is the


result, leaves them as they were in 2010, looking for friends. In 2010


they went for the Liberal Democrats. This time that won't work. The Lib


Dems seem to have been bunt by that. They aren't playing ball. We shall


put in, shall we, let's put in the Democratic Unionist Party in


Northern Ireland. They have been happy to work with the Conservatives


in the past. The trouble here is they need 326, under the exit poll,


they're so far short of that, that they can only make 322 with the DUP.


Then you're left, there's no Ukip MP under the exit poll to bring in.


You're left with a situation where they've fallen short. For the


Conservatives, this is very awkward. Worth saying again, that the exit


poll wouldn't need to be, it's gone on the other side. There we are,


they've put all the parties into the other side of the House of Commons,


worth saying that the exit poll could be only slightly wrong and it


could change those figures drastically, so the Conservatives


don't need many alliances to get their 326 in the House of Commons.


Shall we just try this quickly with Labour. What can the numbers do for


Labour? It's tricky because the Lib Dems have said similar things about


Labour that they've said about the Conservatives. So let's just try


this, so we can visualise. 266 Labour seats. Maybe there's


something, some way of getting the SNP to work with Labour, maybe the


two of them could agree, vote by vote, bill by bill, to agrow a


Queen's Speech maybe. It's Labour and the SNP. That makes 300. They're


still a way short. I won't put in - well, let's put in the Lib Dems just


for the sake of it. Even then nowhere near 326. You put in Plaid


Cymru probably, the SDLP in Northern Ireland. The one Green MP, it's all


very theoretical because we're dealing with numbers we haven't had


confirmed at all. It's no easier for Labour to put a team together to get


to 326 under these numbers. This exit poll is so extraordinary


because it leaves all the parties a bit stuck. It really does leave the


Conservatives in difficulty getting to 326. Let's look at one of the


building blocks of that Jeremy. Geoffrey Donaldson of the DUP in


Northern Ireland, last time round, you had eight MPs. If that happened


again, what's your view of what you'd do and what do you make of


this election that was called to give the Prime Minister an overall


sweeping, grand majority? Well, David, good evening from Northern


Ireland. This is perfect territory for the DUP obviously because if the


Conservatives are just short of an overall majority, it puts us in a


very, very strong negotiating position. Certainly that is one that


we will take up with relish. What would your negotiating position be,


just for viewers who don't know what it is? Well, I'm not going to spell


that out in detail at this stage. Obviously, as in 2015, we had a lot


of speculation at the early stages of the evening. The Conservatives in


the end managed an overall majority at that stage. So I'm not going to


pre-empt the outcome, but what I will say is we will be serious


players, if there is a hung Parliament. We will go in and we


will talk to whoever it is that looks like the Conservatives will be


the largest party. We will talk to them. We have a lot in common. We


want to see Brexit work for the United Kingdom and of course for


Northern Ireland. We want to see the union strengthened and the


Conservatives are committed to that. I think there is a lot of common


ground on which we can work. Obviously we will want to get the


best deal for Northern Ireland itself. So you're keeping something


up your sleeve from our viewers tonight, because we know you were in


favour of Brexit and presumably you'll change the analogy, shoulder


to the wheel on that. Just give us a clue what else you're thinking of.


David, I've been a negotiator in Northern Ireland now for quite a


number of years and I know that any serious negotiator doesn't reveal


their hand in advance and we're not going to do that. In the past, I can


give you some clues, in the past what we have done is operate on a


vote by vote basis with the Government and looked at issues as


they arose in the House of Commons. Thank you very much. We may be into


a different scenario this time. Maybe we can talk again. You had a


point? It's worth saying in that previous Parliament, when the Tories


have been dealing with a small majority, you know working majority


of 17, they've already on some issues been very dependent on the


DUP. They are well used to dealing with them behind-the-scenes. I have


to say the DUP, who tend to take a stronger line on Brexit than the


Tory party, are very used to pressing the levers to get things


they want out of the Conservatives. Also worth saying, just to remember,


in terms of the number of 326, of course, Sinn Fein MPs don't tend to


take their seats, so when we're thinking about, if these numbers are


right, the Tories trying to build some kind of deal, maybe with the


DUP, the actual number that they're looking at is 323. If it's going to


be so finely balanced. They never have taken those seats, have they?


No. We think we've got about two minutes. Michelle let's go to you


for a moment. We'll keep an eye on Sunderland or Newcastle in case they


come through. With me is the chair of Momentum,


the organisation that was set up to support the leadership of Jeremy


Corbyn. What would a result in line with this exit poll mean for Mr


Corbyn personally? It would put him in a clear position of having, you


know, fought a very successful campaign. Which has resulted in


Theresa May failing to get the overwhelming majority she was


seeking. She sought an election that she had, several times, said she


wasn't going to call in order to get that overwhelming majority. She's


utterly failed. Jamie's fought a fantastic campaign. It looks as if


the Conservatives will be the largest party. Knowing Mr Corbyn as


you do, will he be trying to have those conversations, difficult as


they r, for all the reasons that Jeremy just outlined, with the SNP,


with the Liberal Democrats, with others, to try and find a route to


Number Ten? I really think it's much too early to start talking about


those things. This is just an exit poll. As it was said, very small


changes in these results could completely change the arithmetic of


that kind of thing, if that's where we are. It's not clear that's where


we are. I think that really is premature. Thank you.


One of the reasons it is taking a bit longer to account is that the


turnout in Sunderland is up by 5%. Still quite a low turnout. The


average was in the mid-60s last time around. When we do come to it, we


mark the card. Peter Kellner is here. If the exit poll is right, the


Labour candidates... Newcastle has won. We will go there. Let's have


the Newcastle result. They are the winners. They will have to read it


out fast. I'm ready to declare the result of


Newcastle upon Tyne. I, Pat Ritchie, returning officer, hereby give


notice that the total number of votes for each candidate for


Newcastle upon Tyne Central constituency is as follows. Nick


Cott, Liberal Democrats, 1812. Steve Kyte, Conservative Party candidate,


9134. David Muat, UK Independence Party, Ukip, 1282. Che on war,


Labour party, 24000 and 71. Peter John Stuart Thompson, Green Party


candidate, 595. Chi Onwurah has been duly elected to serve as member for


the said constituency. So here for the first time is the


way will boogie showing the results tonight. No surprise that Chi


Onwurah has held the seat. A majority of 14,000, up 2200 from


last time. The first victory of the night.


Dotmacro the terrible murder of Jo Cox just a year ago, and following


the atrocious attacks in Manchester and London. It is thanks to our


police and our emergency services that the democratic process can come


to such a successful conclusion. And I would also like to thank the


returning officer and all the staff yeah. It has been an efficient and


extremely quick count. And I'm also really glad to see that the National


youth Council... So the counters in Sunderland,


Newcastle rather, looking very pleased with themselves, having


beaten Sunderland to the post. Let's see the share. Labour on 65%, the


Conservatives on 25%. The change since last time, Labour up ten and


the Conservatives up ten percentage points. Ukip Dan 11. And the swing


from Conservative to Labour, 2%. Peter Kellner, in your view that is


better for the Conservatives and worse for Labour than the exit poll


was suggesting? The projection from the exit poll for this seat was


suggesting a split of 74% to 14%, Labour to Conservative. The exit


poll was projecting a 7% swing to Labour. We have a 2% swing. This is


a safe seat. It is not a battle ground seed. The exit poll will not


be so reliable in these kind of seats. Let me ask John Curtice.


Peter Kellner says it is not as accurate in this seat. Absolutely


right. I can explain why we were forecasting a big swing to Labour


this seat. The exit poll found that Labour would do better in the seats


it was defending where there was a substantial Remain vote in 2016 as


opposed to those places where there was a substantial Leave vote. We


don't expect Labour to do as well in Sunderland as they did in Newcastle.


We should note the direction of travel. It is a 2% swing to Labour.


Yes, it is a safe seat, but it is the first sign of the night that


maybe the country is going to drift from the Conservatives to the Labour


Party. Drift from Conservatives to Labour? Yes, we have a 2% swing for


a Labour in this poll. But not enough for a labour to overtake the


Conservatives? No. It is a much more pro-Remain Labour seat than


Sunderland. I don't know what has happened to Sunderland. They were


beavering away but nothing seems to have happened. One of the things to


say, that increase in the turnout in Newcastle is something that it is


thought has occurred fairly broadly across the country. Given that one


of the question marks about this election was, would people turn out?


Would young people in particular turnout? I would guess the Labour


Party would regard the evidence that turnout is up as relatively


encouraging from their point of view. Do you have any evidence about


young people? We don't. What I can tell you is that in general we are


finding that in constituencies where there are a large number of


graduates, who are disproportionately younger, we


expect Labour to do better than in places where there are fewer


graduates. Indeed in general. It looks as though from the exit poll


that that part of Britain which was predominantly Remain will be


relatively good territory for Labour. And the part of Britain that


was predominantly Leave will be good for the Conservatives. And therefore


this indeed may end up as having been a Brexit election even though


Brexit disappeared from the campaign trail.


I think we have the Sunderland result. I.e., Irene Lucas, acting


returning officer hereby give notice that the total number...


INAUDIBLE. I hope you can hear this. Paul Hamill, Conservative Party,


12300 and 24. Michael Anthony Joyce, UK Independence Party, 2375. Bridget


Phillipson, Labour party, 24,000... INAUDIBLE.


Bridget Phillipson has been duly elected. They may be able to count


in a hurry but they need to take control of their sound system.


Labour won. The Conservatives are up more than Labour in that seat. Ukip


went down to 2300 from a thousand last time around. If I heard it


right, the Conservatives were up from 7000 to more than 12,000. I


think we may have missed the Labour figure. We are trying to find it


out. And when we do we will be able to explain what has happened. Again


it is another seat where it looks as though... The Conservatives have


done substantially better in Newcastle and Sunderland than the


projection, Labour has done worse. These constituencies are 20 miles


apart. There may be something going on in safe Labour seeds. Or it may


be that the exit poll is wrong. We will have to wait a few hours to


find out. We have seen a significant fall away


in the Ukip vote. The Conservatives, from the start of this election, a


central part of their strategy was Ukip voters who may have previously


been Labour voters, they hoped would go straight across to the


Conservatives. There are 71 seat across the country where the Labour


majority was smaller than the Ukip vote in 2015. Early, early days, but


a pattern, even in these safe Labour seats, that the Ukip vote is


crashing. The Conservatives need that to happen across the country if


they are to enter up in a position to form a decent majority.


It looks as if the Ukip vote is not crashing completely to the


Conservatives, and that may be one of the reasons why Labour is doing a


bit better than the pre-election polls. I am still trying to discover


what happened in Houghton and Sunderland South. We have not been


able to decipher the figures because apparently of a microphone failure


at the counter. Have you got it on Twitter? Nobody has got it. We will


try to get it in due course. Let's go to Tim Farron's seat, what was


his seat, and joined Lucy Manning. Good evening. We are outside Tim


Farron's house. We are expecting him back here fairly soon. If the exit


poll is right, this will be seen as a pretty good night for the Liberal


Democrats. Even if they only gain a handful of seats, the expectations


were so low because there was such criticism of the campaign, the


Liberal Democrats offering this second vote on a Brexit deal that


the voters didn't seem to want, and questions about Tim Farron's


leadership. But now with this exit poll suggesting they could get 14


seats, it leaves him potentially in the position of a kingmaker. And


yesterday, when I spent some time with him on the bus Mac, I talked


over the notion of a hung parliament. He was absolutely clear


there would be no deals, no pact, no coalition, no confidence of supply


were they voted for the budget. Everyone remembers the Liberal


Democrats got burned when they went into coalition. They lost all those


seats at the last election. He is mindful of that and doesn't want to


repeat that. Lib Dem sources denied being very clear that that position


stays the same. No deals, no coalitions, no pacts. If there is a


hung parliament, the Liberal Democrats will be in a situation


where both sides may want them but they will only offer support on a


vote by the bases. I should add they are not sure this exit poll is


right. They are being cautious. In previous years the exit polls had


them on more seats than they ended up getting. They say some of their


key battles are too close to call. They are seeing a hardening up of


the vote for a Labour in some of the University seats they hope to get.


But I think at the moment they are more optimistic than they thought


they would be. Whether they have that traction we will discover as we


get some more results in. We now have the Houghton and Sunderland


South result. A safe Labour seat. There are the figures. 24,006 under


65 for Labour. Ukip in third place. The Conservatives in second. The


change from last time. The Conservatives up 11 percentage


points. Ukip down 16. The swing here from Labour to Conservatives of


3.5%. Peter Kellner, what do you make of that? The exit poll


expectations must an exact swing in the opposite direction. These first


two results unquestionably will be tuning the Conservatives up after a


pretty grim hour after the exit poll. Whether that tumult carry on


in the seeds that really matter, that will have to wait and see. What


would you be looking for next as a test? These are both seats in the


north-east. Where would you want to get your spread? It may be an hour


or more. These seats rush to declare. We were told Slough would


be very good. Slough will be interesting, Swindon North,


Battersea and Putney, early London decorations, where the Conservatives


may be vulnerable. Putney, Justine Greening, the Education Secretary.


Tooting, a Labour seat that Sadiq Khan won two years ago. These are


the kind of seats we will be waiting until two o'clock in the morning to


get. These places where they rush to get the counts done within an hour,


that is the exception. It will take a lot longer everywhere else. We're


joined by a familiar figure, Neil Hamilton. Now a member of Ukip. It


looks like a wipe-out for Ukip. You did your job, you got your Brexit


and that is it, game is up? We have been squeezed. Theresa May intended


this to be a binary competition between Labour and the Tories. It


has not worked out as she expected after the disastrous campaign. Ukip


as an enduring place in Welsh politics, certainly. We have our


members in the Welsh Assembly for the next four years. I believe after


this disastrous election for the Conservatives, we will be able to


carve out a prominent niche for ourselves in UK politics as well,


because we put forward a lot of policies in this election campaign


which none of the other parties can copy us on, like slashing the


humanitarian aid budget, putting money into the health service,


scrapping green taxes. None of that came out in this campaign which was


focused for Ukip supporters on the Brexit issue. A lot of them have


clearly gone to the Tories. But her that Theresa May's position would


have been very bleak indeed. Looks like Ukip will not have any seats in


Westminster. No. Your strength will be in Wales, will it? It is. That


was meant to be a tease! You could rebound from Wales. We have a


proportional representation system which means we get fair


representation, not liking the first past the post system at Westminster.


Let's hear the reaction fted two results, if you have any in? The


initial shock in Conservative circles have subsided and thoughts


about the longer term implications. Tim Montgomerie an influential


Conservative writer tweeted - May hae has been the most disastrous


Tory leader since? ? ? . Anthonie Eden. There's talk about how long


Slee would last as Prime Minister. And Tom Newton Dunne, editor of a


paper who has been in support of Theresa May and they have crunched


their numbers and he said he is convinced the exit poll is wrong,


"It simply just doesn't add up "Quop more broadly, talk about what it


means for Brexit. Alastair Campbell, a vigorous Popent of Theresa May and


Conservative -- a vigorous opponent of Theresa May. He says - "This


election is a rejection of May and hard Brexit. A vote for one to go


and the other to be revisited." That's be a big issue post-election


discussion. And the former Swedish Prime Minister has also put out a


message saying - "This could be messy for the United Kingdom in the


years ahead, one mess risks following another, price to be paid


for the lack of true leadership." So huge international implications and


opponents of Theresa May in Europe are looking at this with some glee,


I think. Laura back for a moment to the exit poll. What would Theresa


May need to get to quell anxiety, fury, plotting, against her in the


Conservative Party? What do you think now she's obviously heard the


exit poll, what will she be thinking - how much do I need to remain Prime


Minister? If the exit poll turns out to be anything like right, then it


is very, very dicey for her. Why do I say that? Even after the campaign,


one senior Conservative said to me today - after the mistakes she's


made in the campaign, she will not be allowed to fight the next general


election campaign. That was one view, but from a senior member of


the party that said even the experience of seeing her exposed in


some ways on the campaign trail, not seeming politically nimble and run a


resounding campaign, that her time was limited in terms of staying on


until the next general election. Now, of course, this could be wrong.


A sigma jot, a safe majority could -- a significant majority, a safe


majority could blow her out of the water. 30 and below I think she's


damaged. Most Tories would be happy with 50 or 60 but if the poll is


anything like right she is miles away. If she ends up with no overall


majority, very damaged but I think it is a result, even if she climbs


up to a majority of 15, 20, 25, 30, shes' still very, very tarnished by


this whole experience. Of course, she had a working majority of 17.


Which was uncomfortable, it was difficult. She had to give up on


some things and change her mind and drop policies she is not going to be


able to get through. She made the Chancellor ditch the central part of


his budget because the party wouldn't wear it but she had a


majority and was able to get things done. She didn't have to call this


election. Do you think she will be able to change her Chancellor? Which


everybody said before this election, that Hammond was on the way out? It


was widely expected, if she ended up with a majority that she would sack


Philip Hammond. You never know until the reshuffle comes. But she won't


be in a strong position to do things that offend other parts of the party


Indeed not. But in terms of the current balance of the Conservative


Party, I think cheer leaders for Mr Hammond would not necessarily be in


great enough numbers to be able to force her to keep him. That said, if


the political situation seems extremely rocky, extremely


uncertain, certainly in terms of the economic reaction, changing a


Chancellor, who's respected by the City, is not something that would be


seen as a wise move. I don't think that it is just us sitting here in


the studio talking, all over the country, 650 places, well actually


since we have had two, 648 places are busy counting. Let's see where


they are. Islington, for instance, at the moment, where Jeremy Corbyn's


seat is counted and Emily Thornbury's seat is counted.


Huddersfield, where there are a whole clutch of marginal


constituencies. In West Yorkshire, where the Conservatives were hoping


to make grounds in. Two seats in Derby. And there where we were a


moment ago, at Tim Farron's constituency. All of these people


brought in as volunteers, paid, styles bank clerks paid to do this


work. It is responsible. You have to open each occupy, verify t make sure


you have made no mistake. Not electronic, all done by hand in the


old-fashioned way. That's why it is taking time. If it is true that the


turnout everywhere is up, then the slower pace of results is what we


can expect. Mishal. David, with me is the former Labour Home Secretary


and former Foreign Secretary, Jack Straw. Welcome. When Corbyn was


elected you said he would lead Labour into political oblivion, this


is a night where the exit poll suggests Labour has made gains. Yes


and if that is the case I'm delighted. I have been in the Labour


Party actually slightly longer than Jeremy Corbyn and working in this


election, as everybody has for a Labour victory. One of the really


interesting things about this election, it is not without note, it


is public, that a lot of people particularly in the parliamentary


party or just left had reservations about Jeremy but one of the


interesting things about the election is that the Labour Party


has a whole has been very disciplined in this election, got


behind Jeremy Corbyn, got behind the manifesto and if this exit poll is


anything to go by, it suggests we have done better than most people


thought Are you suggesting it is more about the party and the party


machine than a personal vindication? No, listen, it is also a great


personal credit to Jeremy Corbyn, if this is correct and to John


MacDonald and no-one can take it away from them. What you have seen


in the election, and I didn't expect it, is great vigour and consistency


by the Labour Party, including on the ground, by Labour candidates.


Again, the thing I didn't expect was that in place of a strong and stable


leader, to coin a phrase, you have had a weak and wobbly leader and


this is a sort of disaster for both the Conservative Party and for


Theresa May. The only perhaps, silver lining out of it, from the


country's point of view, if it ends up with a hung Parliament, with the


Conservatives being the largest party, you may get a more sensible


set of negotiations for Brexit, than would otherwise be the case. Well,


not necessarily. It depends where she looks for support. If it's the


DUP, for example, the obvious people she will turn to in the first


instance. But if you are in a minority. I worked in a minority


Government. I worked in the 1976-79 Labour Government. And if you are in


that situation, you have to compromise not only with your own


side but also with the other side as well. It is just the way


thealchairmeny and chemistry of Parliament works -- the alchemy.


John, a questiony about the exit poll. People saying that maybe 20 or


25% of people have cast postal ballots. You stand your people at


secret. I know because I have asked you to tell me where they are, and


you won't tell me. Secret polling stations around the country, 144,


what happens about the postal ballots, one-quarter of the vote?


Well, what we are doing with the exit poll is comparing how people


who went to the polling station voted this time with how those


people who went to the same polling station two years ago voted. So the


assumption we are essentially making is not necessarily that postal


voters will vote the same way as those who went to the polling


station but that the movement in whatever direction will be roughly


similar amongst those who voted by post and those who voted at


stations. It is a sample, really Obviously it may be true they behave


differently. The one thing I can tell you is one of the things we


looked at our data is our polling stations vary in the proportion of


people who are registered to vote by post but there isn't any


relationship between the swing to the Conservatives or Labour or


whatever and the proportion of people in pooling station that were


registered to vote by post. One other thing - is it possible under


your exit poll that there could be nevertheless, at the end of the


night, be a big or substantial Conservative majority It depends how


you define substantial or big. Peter Kellner's point. How would you


define it? He is on post now. I would say if the exit poll is as


wrong everywhere else than it is in the first two results, it could be


800, 100 majority but if you dial it down, a majority of 30 or o 40 A


majority of 30 or 40 I think we stillville to reward as potentially


possible. He said 80 or 100? Well shall we say, we would be clearly


astray. I don't want to bore you. Never. One thing that happens with


exit polls is they exaggerate the forecasts in terms of the


differences between constituencies, OK. Because we are looking at two


constituents, in where we are -- constited sis, where we are looking


at a swing to Labour, it maybe that we've exaggerated the extent to


which that is going on. I will come back to you in a moment but Katya


Adler is standing by in Brussels, our Europe editor. Let's speak to


her. Have you had a reaction to the surprising exit poll, let me put it


no stronger than, that that we have had this evening? No official


reaction so far. We are talking about exit polls but I would love to


see the thought bubbles here in Brussels and in political and EU


circles in Berlin and Paris tonight. It is in all of these places across


Europe that people, politicians, leaders are glued to their


television and radio sets tonight. It is not just in the United


Kingdom. Because, of course this will have a huge impact on Brexit.


The EU didn't really care how these elections would turn out. What


flavour of Government would turn out in the UK but nearly a year on after


the EU referendum they want to get down to business. They were hoping


to start the face-to-face negotiations with the UK for the


first time in about ten days' time. Now all of this, there is a big


question mark hanging over it. They wanted what they've said was a


strong Prime Minister, a secure Prime Minister, somebody who would


be in place for the duration of the negotiations. Somebody who knew


their mind and were confident in it and wouldn't be beholden to smaller


groups, whether within their party or outside their party. What the EU


doesn't want, once negotiations start, is one who waifs and u-turns


and doesn't know their minds. -- waivers.


And it is important for the UK, Article 50 bass strirged the


countdown to Brexit has started under EU rules. They have to get


that divorce deal sign, sealed and delivered by the EU, never mind a


future trade dee. Any hesitation is costly for the UK. -- trade deal. So


in other words they did want Theresa May to get a hefty majority. You


said at the beginning they didn't care but from what you said


subsequently, if they want clarity or a leader who knows what she's


doing and doesn't have to look over her shoulder all the time, a big


majority for May would've helped them They didn't want Theresa May or


Jeremy Corbyn more than anyone else. They just said they wanted a Prime


Minister secure enough in their position to be able to know their


mind and push forward the negotiations o, to appoint a chief


Brexit negotiator for the EU, the most important figure, sitting


opposite them at the table, with the chief EU negotiator who comes from


the European Commission and they will be discussing tout, week by


week, month by month, right up to the next minute, probably, by all


Brussels' deals in the past. So what they need is a ghaft is stable, but


not particularly, for EU tastes, Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn or


anybody else, but somebody who will remain in that seat for the duration


of the negotiations. It is interesting this. You know there was


some criticism of the campaign. We had John McDonnell complaining that


Brexit never surfaced and he never talked about Brexit and how it would


be conducted. The Conservatives never really talked about it. Is


there a feeling in Brussels that they have ideas, they know the way


they want Brexit to go but the British Government doesn't know the


way it wants it to go? That is so much the feeling here. I mean, from


the Brussels' perspective or EU perspective, if you like, the UK


seems Will seemed to tear itself apart after the EU referendum with


recriminations between Leavers and Remainers and it dived into


preparations for a general election and in the meantime almost #12b


months have gone by and during that time, the -- 12 months have gone by


and during that time the EU is getting its Brexit ducks in a row.


It has its chief negotiator in place and he has his team and they have


been dotting the I's and crossing the T's. They have draft papers


already on specific points like the amount of money itp wants the UK to


pay before he leaves the EU. The EU citizens' rights, the rights of EU


citizens who stay in the UK after Brexit and the rights of UK citizens


in the EU. Now Theresa May said they had a clear plan but they didn't


want to divulge it but as far as the public was concerned there were a


lot of platitudes spread around, Brexit means Brexit and no more


details than that. The EU is a big, big contrast. They can't keep


anything a secret because there are so many players involve. 27


countries, plus the European Commission and European Parliament.


They are being transparent. They are publishing this and there are a lot


of details prepared already. Thank you very much.


Let's go to Cambridge. The Conservatives hold the seat. The


Liberal Democrats are hoping to take it. Is it your impression that the


Liberal Democrats think they may have taken Cambridge, or Labour has


kept it? I think the feeling very much in the hall, on the ground is


that Labour is going to squeak it and hold on. It is one of the


tightest battle grounds in the country and it has been a bitter,


bitter battle between Labour and the Lib Dems. In Cambridge as


nationally, the Lib Dems have fought on offering a second EU referendum.


In Cambridge, if they can't take Cambridge, one of the cities with


the highest Remain votes in the country, the feeling is that that


so-called Lib Dem surge won't happen despite what the exit polls say. The


student vote is absolutely key. There are about 12,000, 13,000


registered voters. We don't know whether they are going to vote,


where they are going to vote, in Cambridge or their home address. But


the senses they have come out. That means a Labour hold. In this hole


already, thoughts of a recount are not being dismissed. We do think at


the moment a Labour hold. Your Air Canada Centre is particularly


beautiful. Where is it you are? It is a lot better than the school


gymnasium juicy. It is in the Guild Hall, slap bang in the Market


Square. Few hundred yards away from The Leaders Debate took place. We


are very much in the centre of Cambridge. We talk about the


referendum and the Remain votes, only about 200 yards away from here


is the constituency warred with the highest Remain vote in the entire


United Kingdom. Let's go to Hastings. There are some smiles on


the faces, apparently, of Labour. That is right, yes. Labour seem


pretty ecstatic. That is a big contrast from both the Conservatives


and the Liberal Democrats. The Conservatives looking tense and


nervous. Just talking to the Conservative Party chairman. He says


they have had a positive campaign but a strong vote in the county


areas. They were not very keen to talk beyond that. This is the seat


held by the current Home Secretary, Amber Rudd. No sign of her yet. We


have been told she will not give any media interviews today. That remains


to be seen. Labour say they have had a fantastic campaign, despite this


being a snap election. They say they mobilised 2000 volunteers and have


canvassed more homes than ever before. That is because of Jeremy


Corbyn, they say. The Liberal Democrats say their vote has been


completely squeezed and they are worried about losing their deposit.


Thank you. Sophie Raworth is in the north-east. You have two more


declarations. What is the timetable? Sunderland Central is the one we are


expecting next. It is taking an awfully lot longer than it usually


does. They are still counting the votes for Sunderland Central over


there. One of the main reasons it is taking longer is because the turnout


is up again in this seat. 62.1%. That is 5% higher than it was in


2015. It is a funny atmosphere here in this vast sports hall. People are


genuinely baffled. They are not sure what to make of it all. When that


exit poll came out, there was real surprise among some Labour


supporters. They didn't really expect to see anything like that.


Others say it was something they saw reflected on the doorsteps during


the campaign. Some of the campaign officials believe the rise of the


bigger turnout is down to more young people engaging. That is what they


are sensing about this campaign. The next result we are going to get will


be the Sunderland Central seat that was held by Julie Elliott. She had a


huge majority. 50% of the share in 2015. Again there was a very big


Ukip surge in 2015. They had 19% of the vote. It will be interesting to


see what happens to that and where it goes. How much of that vote


Labour get, how much the Conservatives get. But the count,


the declaration, is expected in about ten or 15 minutes.


Wales, Emily. Let's look at Wales. It is not just Sunderland where they


are baffled. We are acknowledging that things are up in the air. We


are maybe recalibrating some of our forecasts. I pointed out some of the


seats were Labour have a 90% chance of taking them from the


Conservatives. I am now going to point out some seats the


Conservatives could take from Labour. They are mostly in this part


of North Wales. I would show you one on the Wales England border, which


we could get in quite early. Wrexham has been Labour since 1935. The


Conservatives need a 3% swing. A Labour majority of just short of


2000. On our forecast, it suggests the Conservatives could take up to a


50% share of the vote. That is Wrexham. We will be able to compare


that with the real result when we get that in. Delyn in North Wales is


another one. This is the 2015 fold. Labour on 41% to 33% from the


Conservatives. It has been Labour since 1932. A majority of just short


of 3000. The forecast would suggest the Conservatives can take a 51%


share of the vote. The Conservatives need a 4% swing. The lead votes in


these seats in the mid-50s. The same part of the world, this is 2015.


Alyn and Deeside. Labour in the lead. On current forecast there


could be a move to the Conservatives of more than 10%. That would put the


Conservatives into this seat. And the last one, Clywd South, a


majority of 2500. You can see Labour holds it at the moment. Susan Elan


Jones. It is suggesting the Conservatives could take it. These


are very interesting. Very different to the ones we have been looking at


in England, where I showed you some of the movement that Labour is


expected to be making, according to the exit polls. That is what we are


now going to compare Juanmi get the first Wales won in. It will be


interesting if throughout the country we see Conservatives being


better -- doing better in Leave areas, which in North Wales


suggests... That was sort of what we were expecting. At the beginning of


the night we thought we would see Labour possibly doing better in


Wales, in London, and the Conservatives doing better in other


parts of the UK. A lot of things are up in the air. We're just waiting


for any indication of what is going on on the ground.


Laura, what news have you got? From around the front just some tips


coming to me. The Tories are looking very hopeful in Gordon in Scotland.


We know the Tories are expecting probably around eight seats in terms


of taking them from the SNP in Scotland. Gordon matters because


this is the constituency of Alex Salmond, the former SNP leader. He


is a major figure in Scottish politics. The Tories have been


targeting that's it aggressively. Soundings from there that they have


done very well. Labour are hopeful in Edinburgh South. They have taken


that seat from the SNP. More importantly for the national


picture, Labour quietly confident in Croydon Central. That was around


number 40 in their English targets. It would give us a flavour of the


kinds of places they think they can take. Labour quietly confident in


Croydon Central. We had -- heard during the day that they were


flooding it with activists to get the vote out. That could be the kind


of seat that tells us a lot about the general direction. We should


explain the expression quietly confident. Quietly confident at the


count because they have seen the number of ballot papers lining up?


These are soundings from this evening. Soundings from a variety of


people at cans were seeing how things are stacking up, and that


parties' operations where they are getting information from the cans.


When I used to go to cans, you could actually see how it stored. Even


though you could not say it. Everybody seems to be accepting that


the turnout is well up. It seems at this early stage that is because of


younger people. That is of course what Jeremy Corbyn was looking for.


One Cabinet minister has just said to me that this is the election


where young people started voting. And perhaps tomorrow it may seem for


all the political parties that the demographics of who they have to try


to please may be shifting. With me is the cabinet minister,


pretty Patel, the International Development Secretary. I know you


will get to your own count in Essex. Let's talk about the exit poll,


along with two results. If the exit poll is correct, it was the wrong


decision for Theresa May to call the election? The exit poll is only a


projection, and illustration, it is not the actual result. There is a


long way to go. The point about calling the election, as the Prime


Minister said when she announced that, the country has a choice in


leadership. Look at the big decisions that are opened coming


around Brexit, look at the choices we will have to make as a country.


That of course is what this election campaign has been about for the


Conservative Party. The Prime Minister's campaign was very robust.


There was very little the Conservative Party put forward about


Brexit? I disagree with that completely. What detail did you put


forward? The Prime Minister has been clear in speeches, the 12 points


around negotiation, taking back control about money, orders,


safeguarding workers' rights. These are key areas. She and others have


spoken about them during the campaign. I don't think it is right


to say we have not been focused on Brexit. We have been very clear.


This is a complete contrast to other parties who want to frustrate


Brexit. When it came to the Labour Party, they have not got a coherent


plan on Brexit. If your party ends up with a reduced majority or no


overall majority in the House of Commons, what would that mean for


her personally? First of all, I don't accept and I will not go down


the road of speculating what will happen. What we will see, results


coming together through the night. We have a Prime Minister in Theresa


May in particular who has been very strong in terms of the challenges,


tackling the reach challenges -- real challenges, and being frank


with the public. We have significant negotiations we will be going into


in 11 days. That is the real focus. And obviously macro we want to make


sure, and she has been clear that she goes out there and battle is


forbidden, get a good deal for Britain, as we go forward and


negotiate Britain's future. She could be in a position where Brexit


negotiations are going to start next week and she is looking around to


see where she can find the support to shore up her position? She has


been clear, and the Conservative Party has been clear, post the


referendum that Brexit means Brexit. We are going to deliver Brexit. We


need to get on and do that and safeguard the right deal. If this is


borne out, she is in a very difficult position, isn't she? I


don't think so. Nothing changes. The negotiations will be happening. She


is clear. She is a woman of great conviction. She wants to get the


best deal for Britain. She is putting our national interest front


and centre of the negotiations. That is where her energies will be. Did


she herself want to call this election was she talked into it? It


was her choice. She made that difficult decision. Was it her


initiative, or was she talked into it? She is Prime Minister and she


made that call. She was very clear why. To look to the future, to


strengthen our hand, to negotiate the best deal for Britain. I think


she has fought the campaign very strongly. Travelling the country


endlessly, day in, day out, as all colleagues have been.


The result for the Sunderland Central constituency is as follows.


John Christopher Cockburn, independent, 305 volts.


-- volts. Julie Elliott, Labour Party, 25,056 votes.


Rachael Featherstone, Green Party candidate. 7057 votes.


Niall Hodson, 1,177 votes, Liberal Democrats. Gary James Leighton, UK


Independence Party, 2,209 votes. Robert Jeffrey Oliver, Conservative


Party, 15,059 votes. And I, therefore, declare that Julie


Elliott has been duly elected to serve as member for the said


constituency and I would like to invite the candidate to say a few


words. OK, so once again, Sunderland Central, the third result we have


had in. I have had to say immediately better for the


Conservatives than the exit polls suggested, worse for Labour than the


exit polls suggested. Labour hold it, of course you see the majority


of 9,000 nearly 10,000, the share of the vote, though, 56% for Labour, 33


for the Conservatives. of 9,000 nearly 10,000, the share of


the vote, though, 56% for Labour, 33 for the Conservatives. Ukip down at


5%. The change, Labour up 5, the Conservatives up 10, Ukip down 14


and this is the one to look at, a swing from Labour to the


Conservatives of 2.3%. There is a quote from Theresa May, this has


just come in, I think? OK, don't worry about it. It was from the 20th


May. That result? just come in, I think? OK, don't


worry about it. It was from the 20th May. That result? This is in a sense


in line with the other Sunderland seats and Newcastle. Those


north-eastern seats, all the Conservatives are doing


substantially better and Labour substantially worse than the exit


poll. Could I broaden this out to the postal vote. If you are quick.


Because my sources inside the Labour Party say they are very worried that


outside London, there is a huge swing to the Conservatives amongst


people who voted by post. And, therefore, are not being picked up


by the exit poll. If they are right, then that suggests the Conservatives


will end the right rather better. On the other hand, if amber Rudd is in


trouble in Hastings, then Labour is doing Bert than the polls suggest.


Conflicting information. I wouldn't put any money on any results between


the Conservatives getting 310 and 350 or 360 seats. Telford also


proving very close. Labour hoping to oust the forries. Let's see the --


the Tories. Let's see the north-east vote. Lets go around to prove things


are happening. Cardiff, Aberdeen, Leeds. The three places where counts


are going on, we'll join Emily for a look at the North East, the three


results we have had in so far are all from there, everything we are


extrapolating comes from the North East. Emily. What I have done, I


have put up three swings now of the seats that we have in, declared


already. You can see a sort of have put up three swings now of the


seats that we have already. You can see a sort of


pattern emerging. Nmplgts Sunderland South and Central we have a swing to


the Conservatives away from Labour. Here in Sunderland South of 3%, and


smaller in Sunderland Central and in Newcastle Central a swing towards


Labour, a smaller one of 2.1. What difference, shall we say? Well Leave


vote was 48% in Newcastle central, higher in Sunderland, around the 6


#0s, so it tends to suggest, on this scant evidence, so far, the


Conservatives might be doing better in places shall as we'd expect where


the Leave vote is higher and Newcastle tends to be pushing


towards Labour there on a higher Remain vote.


Newcastle tends to be pushing towards Labour there on a higher


Remain vote. Down to Brighton on the South coast where the Conservatives


hold Brighton there, where Labour was hoping to challenge them and


where there was the only Green MP in the last House of Commons, Julian is


there. What is the story there? Yes, good evening from the stadium here


in Brighton. As you say three seats being counted here. It won't be


declaring for a good few hours here. You mention Brighton Kempton and in


the light of that exit poll there is undoubtedly anxiety, I wouldn't put


it more strongly than that, but anxiety among the Conservative camp


because Simon Kirby is contesting that seat for the Conservatives. He


won two years ago and Labour ran it close and there is no Green


candidate standing. There has been a hint of the grossive alliance going


on here, in the Brighton, Pavilion, the seat Caroline Lucas is defending


for the Green Party, she won by nearly 8,000 two years ago, there is


no Liberal Democrat standing there. Hove is the other seat being counted


near Brighton. That was Labour by about 1200 last time. In the light


of that exit poll Labour hopeful they'll be able to hold on to that.


The other interesting thing about Brighton and three seats is the Ukip


vote. Ukip only standing in one of the three seats. There is not


natural Ukip territory. It was a very strong Remain area. More than


68% of people in Brighton and Hove voted Remain in the EU referendum


but in the two seats where they are not standing this time, their vote


still two years ago was sufficient to have a bearing on the outcome


when those results were very close. So a lot to consider here. When


thing you won't get is a speeding result. We are talking about a


declaration maybe 5am or 6am, so it is coffees all around for the next


few hours. Thank you. Kirsty Wark joins us from Glasgow with snus to


the SNP reaction to the news of the exit polls, I put it like that,


Kirsty Yes, good evening from Glasgow. I have spoken to John


Mason, one SNP MSP, saying they are very much under statement. "I think


we are doing a little worse than I thought we were going to do." - an


understatement. You so if the exit poll is right and if the SNP do drop


the seats they are still the largest party but the interesting thing is,


it'll be a real triumph for Ruth Davidson. Theres a only been one


Tory MP in Scotland since 1996. So whatever happens it Theresa May


this, will be seen as a very good night for Ruth Davidson. She wants


to pick up ten seats, she may pick up eight. We've heard Laura said the


totemic seats of gore done may go and seats may be lost. And they are


banging on BP indyref2, the very -- banging on about indyref2, that they


didn't want her to talk about and think it has paid off but


interestingly they may be able to make a grossive alliance and be able


to make negotiations. What about Liberal Democrats and Labour? What


drift do you get about their feeling on the way they have done? The


Liberal Democrats are interesting for two reasons - they may well take


Dumbartonshire, Joe Swinton's seat. She was the equalities minister in


the coalition. She has been nursing that seat since she lost it top John


Nicholson of the SNP. Also Fife where Nicola Sturgeon was last week,


trying to shore up the vote there, if they lose Fife there, to the


Liberal Democrats, it'll show that the Liberal Democrats are on their


way back in Scotland. What is not clear from the Glasgow vote here is


that Labour may take one Glasgow seat, we don't know yet but no sign


of a Labour return in Scotland. It'll definitely be the fact that


Ruth Davidson is her own woman, the Liberal Democrats are not dead in


the water and the chances that this has been the SNP's high water mark


may come true. And Kirsty, how long, how long, how long, until we get a


result? How long, how long? How long, how long? Well, you know, it


maybe that the Glasgow East result is at 2.00am and in fact not long


after that, we understand, we hope that Nicola Sturgeon will arrive


about 3.00. We'll rejoin you. I suspect before then but definitely


then. The Liberal Democrats you are saying have a problem? Some of the


Liberal Democrats are wore jid that Nick Clegg might lose his seat in


Sheffield hall A he had a majority of just over 2,000. But I think the


Liberal Democrats are a bit worried he may not be in the Liberal


Democrat contingepent in the new House of Commons. Really? --


Sheffield Hallam. Really? Some people thought he fought a better


campaign than Tim Farron. I mean I know he has a lot of history hanging


on him, the co-alanes tuition fees and all that but when he spoke he


was quite strong about bricts particularly. -- coalition. You are


talking about personal results. We weren't clear whether the students


were still in residence or if they have all gone home. His constituency


is very much a student constituency? Ah. You go away and work that out.


We know. You note answer Students have the confusing things of being


able to register on two places, hard to work out. The Liberal Democrats


nationally, whatever the exit poll says, Liberal Democrats HQ say they


would be content withholding their ground, which was eight MPs.


Newcastle East is up. Green Party candidate, 755. Simon


John Kitchen, the Conservative Party candidate, 8,866. Tony Sanderson, UK


Independence Party, Ukip, 1,315. Wendy Taylor, Liberal Democrats,


2,574. Nicholas Brown has been duly elected


to stand for this constituency. Nick Brown he holds the seat. Once again,


better for the Conservatives than for Labour whenner compared to the


exit poll. A good result for the Conservatives in Newcastle East. So


let's go to Swindon where we have a count, I hope coming. Swindon.


Justin Tomlinson, the Conservative Party candidate, 29,400...


Labour Mark Dempsey, 21,000. There were 104 rejected ballot papers and


Justin Tomlinson is duly elected the Member of Parliament for North


Swindon. Thank you. Well, once again, the sound quality is abysmal


from these places. We are meant to be in 2017. Not 1917. It's absurd


but anyway there are the figures. We have managed to extract them. I


don't know how but here they are. The Conservatives on 29,431 and


Labour on 21,000. The share, 54-48. There is a fly in the studio, which


is irritating. We have been trying to get rid of it for the last three


days but it Conservatives up three,


Conservatives up 11, Ukip down 12 a 3.7% swing from Conservative to


Labour. John, how does this alie itself with your exit poll. I


mustn't call it yours, the exit poll. This is a slightly better


result for Labour than we expected. The Conservatives have won. We


expected them to hold the seat but we have had a better than expected


result here and also the last Newcastle result was also in fact


better than expected from the exit poll. So, just bear in mind in this


early part of the night, you will indeed get lots of variation around


the broad story but so far at least I think we should all just be


holding our nerve in temples whether or not indeed the Conservatives are


going to get simply a modestly bad night a disappointing night or


indeed whether it is going to be worse than that.


or not indeed the Conservatives are going to get simply a modestly


indeed whether it is going to be worse than that. To use the old


cliche, it is all to play for, which I refuse to say but it is what it


is. Yes, we don't have enough information in these results. A


couple of swings to the Conservatives, two or three swings


to Labour. That said, the fact we are beginning to get swings to


Labour, including for example in the south of England, clearly does raise


questions about the Conservatives' chance of getting the landslide the


Prime Minister originally had in mind. If she was going to get a


landslide, frankly virtually every constituency in the country should


be swinging to the Conservatives. It is midnight. I have never known an


election with so few results in at midnight but it is midnight.


I will come to you in a moment with results from the newspapers. But as


it is midnight, let's have the news. Counting has begun in


the 2017 general election, amid widespread surprise


at the results of an exit poll The poll indicates the Conservatives


will be the largest party, but will lose 17 seats -


leaving them with 314. It suggests Labour will get 266


seats, a rise of 34. The early results have seen


Labour retaining seats The exit poll is owed. It is watched


closely by the politicians but it is still just a prediction. It has the


Conservatives as the largest party. But assured of an overall majority.


The poll suggests the Tories would have three and 14 seats, down 17 on


three years ago. It puts Labour on 266, up 34. The SNP would get 34 and


the Lib Dems 14. This is a projection, not a result. These exit


polls have been wrong in the past. I think in 2015 they underestimated


our vote. I think in a couple of elections before that they


overestimated it. Theresa May promised on seven different


occasions she wouldn't go for a snap election and she went for it. She


went Fred on the basis of securing a mandate she already had. People saw


through that. It is the real votes that count. There was a race to see


which constituency would declare first. Labour have held at Newcastle


Central, a safe seat for them, increasing the majority might more


than 2000. Jeremy Corbyn arrived home in his north London


constituency tonight. If the exit poll is correct, he will have


confounded the expectations of even his own MPs. While Theresa May's


gamble to win big in a snap election will have failed. But the night is


young and the truth inside those ballot boxes is yet to be revealed.


With the news of the exit poll the pound has been falling


against other currencies, including the dollar and the euro.


Let's get the latest reaction from Sharanjit Leyl in Singapore.


Tell us more about what is going on? That is right. As you say, the most


immediate reaction has been from the British pound. Sterling falling


nearly 2% against the dollar. The exit poll suggested the Conservative


Party could lose its overall majority. It has since scaled back


those losses. It is down 1% against the major currencies. That is after


swings in the exit poll have not been reflected. That has given the


Conservative Party some hope the poll may not be as bad as expected.


Investors also watching other developments awake from the UK


elections. The testimony from former FBI chief James Comey.


And the European Central Bank. Thank you. Now back to David.


And here in our election studio we are still waiting for more results.


We have had three so far. Five so far now, I think. Yes. Not very many


at midnight. We last saw Jeremy Vine in the House of Commons. He has now


moved to Downing Street. Thank you. I am in virtual Downing Street,


which gives us chance to see the progress of the parties. Let's pave


the path to the daughter Number 10. The Conservatives short of the


finishing line and Labour some way back. We can do this are few more


times as the night goes on. We can see of the Conservatives cross this


line. At the moment the exit poll has them falling short. 326 seats


needed for an overall majority. The Conservatives on 314. Focus on the


seat at the end. These are the ones the exit polls have as 50-50. If you


are John -- Johnny Mercer in Plymouth or Karl McCartney in


Lincoln, don't jump off be so vain celebration. We can't be certain you


are back in Parliament. All of these are predictions which is why they


are coloured in dark blue. 314 is what the exit poll says. Short of


the overall majority. Look at Labour. Come down Downing Street.


They have made a substantial advance. More than 30 seats in the


exit poll. We don't have the ones, the actual result we have seen in.


We are still dealing very much with forecasting. You can see these are


the ones for a Labour that are very, very nip and tuck. Very close in the


exit poll. 50-50. Newport West is now pretty marginal under the exit


poll. That has been Labour Party for a while. High Peak was a


constituency Labour held in the Tony Blair years. Moreli is Ed Balls'


seat. It may well be back in the red column. It is still exit poll


territory. Here's the fascinating thing. If you go back to 2010 when


the Conservatives fell short of an overall majority, they had 306


seats. Their line of seats ended about here. If we go back to 2015,


the last general election, despite the predictions they would may


undershoot, actually they crossed the line and David Cameron in his


second general election had three seats. If this is the result, it


puts the midway between 2010 when they needed to being coalition, and


2015 when they had an overall majority. And as has been said, it


makes the calling of the election looked like a very bad idea indeed.


Thank you. We will be watching the road to Downing Street from time to


time. We have had resulted in. Sunderland West. A slightly mixed


picture. This is a safe Labour seat. Sharon Hodgson sitting in a majority


of more than 13,000. She has been returned. It is slightly lower. It


is a swing this time around to the Conservatives. Labour on a 61% share


of the vote. The Conservatives on 29%. The Conservatives have done


better. They are up ten percentage points to Labour's six. Both of them


benefiting from a drop in the Ukip vote. This swing similar to


Newcastle Central. A swing of around 2% to the Conservatives. Nothing is


becoming clearer of the direction of travel of either party.


Emily Thornberry joins us. Shadow Foreign Secretary. Good evening. You


made the call at the very beginning of this evening when the exit poll


came out that Theresa May should resign. Why should she resign? Well,


think about it. She called this election when she thought she was 20


points ahead in the polls. She said she wanted a mandate for Brexit. She


basically wanted to stamp out the opposition. She wanted to be able to


have a blank cheque, a free hand to do whatever she wanted with the


country in terms of Brexit negotiations, in terms of the NHS,


and the country has said no. The country has looked to the Labour


Party and we have put forward a positive alternative. The star of


our show was our manifesto, which shows we have another vision for


where we want to take the country. We have turned it around. We have


fought a very positive campaign. If she wanted a mandate out of this


election, she hasn't got it. So she has failed. You are nowhere near


catching her. Your 50 seats behind of the exit poll is right. But I


think... If I'm honest, obviously we are disappointed if we are not able


to form a majority government because every time we go an


election, that is what you hope to do. But think of all those who are


saying 67 weeks ago that it was just a question of how big Theresa May's


crown was going to be, how big her majority was going to be. For us to


have come from such a long way back, supposedly, to now be in a position


where ducks tonight like we could form the next government. That is an


extraordinary performance on the part of the Labour Party. It shows


what we can do when we unite. How would you form the next government?


Well, we would put forward a Queen 's speech and a budget, our Labour


MPs would vote for it and we would call on the other parties to vote


for it as well. You think you would get enough support from the Liberal


Democrats, some of the National parties in Wales, some MPs in


Northern Ireland? Have you done the sums are you just speculating? It


would be up to them to explain to their constituents how it was that


when given the choice they let the Tories back in again. They have


absolutely no vision for Britain, no plan at all. They can say they will


spend more money on the national Health Service. They have been found


out. They have no manifesto promise in terms of money. They can't say


where were they would get the money from for the National Health


Service. We put forward a costed manifesto because we meant it. Let


me get this straight. At ten past 12 on this Friday morning you are


saying that Jeremy Corbyn may go to Number 10, make his hands with the


Queen, or whatever he agrees to do with the Queen, and form a


government? Look, we have got an exit poll. We have had very few


results. But the exit poll seems to indicate that no party will have an


overall majority. So it is possible that we will form the next


government and if we do, there is no deals. We will be clear about that.


How would you avoid that being the coalition of chaos that the Tories


said it would be if Theresa May was not re-elected with a majority? A


coalition of chaos. There is no coalition, there are no deals.


Either the Conservatives would be the minority government of this exit


poll is right, Labour will be the minority government. We are not


having a coalition. We are not doing any deals. We will put forward the


alternative manifesto, our alternative manifesto for Britain.


It has been popular with the public. We would call on MPs from other


parties to vote Fred. So not a coalition of chaos, just chaos? Have


you asked any Tory MPs given the situation they are in, where they


may be heading for a coalition of chaos? No. They say they are to have


a majority. Well, there they are. -- there we are. What was their


majority going to be? It was going to be 100, 120, 150 seats. That


clearly was wrong. Let's see what happens. Stay with us. Ken Clarke is


joining us from Rushcliffe. The father of the House if he wins his


seat back. What you make of this result and what do you think of what


Emily Thornberry is saying, that they may look to the smaller parties


to Cisse bought a Queens speech and form a government? David, I heard


you say and our ago that he would be hung, drawn and quartered at your


exit poll is wrong, and we will be hung, drawn and quartered if we make


silly guesses now. It is quite entertaining to have these elections


and referendums these days because we reach a state of total


uncertainty. My guess is that the Conservatives look as if we will


have a small overall majority. Your opinion poll is very complicated


methodology. It may be wrong. I have been told that the Labour Party was


still doing worse in the north and the North East, the big Brexit votes


in the Rust Belt areas weren't doing them much good. The Labour Party is


doing better in the national polls in London, I'm told. I have no


first-hand experience of campaigning in either to see of that theory


proves to be right. It might as the evening goes on. We are obviously


going to have a very interesting parliament. I don't think there is


any point in carrying on the election debate with Emily


Thornberry, with great respect to Emily. I want -- we won't be able to


judge where we are until at least four o'clock in the morning, perhaps


sometime tomorrow. Your party leader went into this election on the


grounds she didn't have blood needed certainty and stability. You are a


wise enough old bird to be able to say whether you think certainty and


stability will be the outcome? The worst possible outcome would be a


hung parliament, from the National point of view. I think the worst


outcome for the United Kingdom would be a weak government and a hung


parliament. We just have to see what we get. If we have to continue with


another parliament with a small majority, personally we will have to


have some deeper debate than we had in the public debate during this


election on a lot of issues, most particularly Brexit. We -- we are


facing some appalling difficulties. This is a critical stage. Our are


politics is changing, there are huge problems. We need a little more


cross-party discussion, particularly on things like Brexit. A little less


exchanging slogans and trying to score points off each other. We


could get a parliament for five years. If we could get negotiations


that keep leaving open in the first two or three, time for our politics


to change a little, which I think the public would appreciate. That is


simply my hope. We will see after the first excited comments exactly


how the politicians respond when we get back to Westminster.


We were a staunch Remainer and remained a Remainer right through.


Do you think it it was Hubristic of the Prime Minister to call an


election to endorse her view of Brexit? Well, we don't know in any


details what Brexit policy we are to pursue. A lot of idiots are talking


about hard Brexits and soft Brexits and most people haven't done the


courtesy of explaining what they mean by either. I was amazed by


everybody else when she suddenly called an election. There are two


good reasons, I think for it. One was our small majority was proving


very, very difficult and the Budget vote showed another four years of


this could be chaotic, not to be able to carry your Budget is quite a


serious crisis. So it was worthwhile trying to get a better majority and


the other reason, which she gave several times was to have these


Brexit negotiations, finishing in end of 2019, early 2020, and


coinciding with the beginning of another election campaign, which


would undoubtedly be full of Hessesterical nonsense if the


negotiations were ending, it could be very difficult, so getting the


key negotiations over and then having another couple of years


before the general election, that's how I persuaded myself that they


were two very good reasons for holding an election and the second


one she used a lot herself. I don't think it makes a difference to the


position of the Government to the Brexit negotiations, I hope in the


new Parliament we will have slightly fuller deby the about what exactly


the position is that the British Government, whichever Government it


is, is going to adopt. Can Brexit be stopped? Well, I have come to the


conclusion, no. I thought it was a parliamentary thing. I never liked


the idea of holding a referendum, I hope we never hold any more


referendums on anything again but when we got to Parliament, I stuck


to my principles, I voted against invoking Article 50. The Government


had a huge majority, despite the fact that the vast majority of


ministers and MPs agreed with me and all agreed it wasn't in the natural


interest to Leave but they promised they would be bound if I the


referendum. And we are where we are, because I think we are going to


leave, I don't think it is sensible to find the next five years of this


Parliament, like the last five years, to continue to argue that we


shouldn't be leaving. What matters enormously, we all agree in broad


terms, we get the best deal for Britain. That needs to be considered


seriously, I hope on a more cross-party basis. Both parties are


hopelessly divided on Europe. They have been for 20 years. Thank you


very much for joining us. We may hear from you later. One new result.


Newcastle upon Tyne North. O Labour hold, Kath McKinle. The


swing is very marginal. On the results overall there has been a


swing in more of them to Labour. This is how the exit poll that you


saw at the beginning of the night, compares the with results we have


had in so far. This is a seat by seat comparison, so it takes into


account the seven results we have had in. As you can see, the Ukip


column is pretty much bang on there. We said down 14%, and the results


showdown 13. What it looks as if, though, as if we might be starting


to recalibrate in our future forecast, some of the Conservative


vote which is much higher than the ones we have had in, than Pretorius


dicted. Labour 15% but has come up 9%. You won't see anything in the


SNP column because they don't stand in the seats. This is specific,


localised to what we have had in so far but you can see different shapes


emerging there to the ones we've H thank you very much. We have been


joined by Andrew Marr. Don't speak, just joined, but just before...


Anyway you are bursting. Amol has the newspaper headlines. They have


been speculating, let's get that and then your take. We have first


editions Andrew will know from his time editing a newspaper and when I


was editing a newspaper, that these evenings can be a nightmare because


you have to produce multiple editions. This is the Daily Mirror


no, friend of May necessarily, it says - hanging by a they red. The


Guardian - exit poll shock for May. Pretty negative for May. The Daily


Mirror is getting a lot of publicity. Rest assured they are all


negative. The Sunjic Hayes May-Hem and Daily Telegraph says - shock for


May and polls indicate a hung Parliament. We have also Lord


Ashdown, after his notoriety after his response to the exit poll, he


says - if the exit polls are right, Britain is more polarised than ever


in my lifetime. Really time now for the centre to get its act together.


One of the themes emerging in the online conversation about this is


this is about a divided country a country not just divided between


Labour and the Tories but between the young and old and Leave and


Remain, which is a theme we'll be back come back to. Nigel Farage has


spoken, former Ukip leader, he said - whatever the true result, the


Conservative Party needs a leader that believes in Brexit. Paddy


Ashdown said he would eat his hat at the last election. He has mentioned


that this time as far as we are aware. He has probably already eaten


T He ate it last time. He has no hat left. Andrew Marr, your go, what do


you read into this? Above all, with you just need a lot more data at


this point. What appears to be happening, I was talking to a


minister who said - every mile further north I g it gets better for


the Tories. You are beginning to see that reflected in the polls. The


difference between the exit poll and those actual results we have had,


suggests those Tories who said I don't believe the exit poll may be


right, they may do better but a very patchy picture, for two reasons -


one, division over Brexit and what happens to u ki. How that vote


collapses, there are some place whereas Ukip are not standing and


some places where they have done a deal with the sitting Tory candidate


and other place whereas they are standing and the other thing is a


differential in turnout. We have seen the most extraordinary campaign


join, particularly by the left Momentum, very funny, pointed, Me


Americases, films and harangues to get young voters out and the offers


by young voters to Jeremy Corbyn, have they come out in numbers we


never dreamt possibly and the older end of the scale, seeing the decline


of the triple-lock and Winter Fuel Payments issue and so-called


dementia tax, have they turned away from the Tories in the ways they


haven't before. That would suggest spotty results but it is looking


terrible for Theresa May at the moment. Turning awane not voting for


switching their vote? We don't know. We don't know but it may explain why


the exit poll is so different. Let's for a moment look at a bit of


history. If we assume for the argument that the exit poll is right


and the Conservatives are short of an overall majority but they are the


largest party, what happens? A fist full of salt in one hand a as I say


that but it brings us back to 1974 the last time we had a genuine hung


Parliament and that led after the February election to an October


election in 1974. All the people watching this thinking - I love


elections, I want more, I want more David Dimbleby, again and again,


this maybe your years, a warning. But much more seriously... You can't


get more serious than that, I tell you. Ken Clarke was saying Brexit


can't be stopped the negotiations must go on. But remember, these are


supposed to start properly in about ten days' time. What happens if


there is no Prime Minister who commands a majority of the House of


Commons, to have those negotiations with? There maybe no choice but to


declay that and it maybe a very long time before we have a Prime Minister


who has a Brexit plan and enough MPs to support him or her in that


process. Severing up for grabs. In three or four hours' time we will


know how close we are to that. And some more tips reaching us about


potential results. Straws in the wind but good the straws in the


wind. Labour are confident of taking Ipswich. Why does it matter not


because it is a Labour gain from Tory seat, but it is held by Ben


Gummer, and he was the minister responsible for putting together


manifesto. If this transspire how much of a metaphor would that be for


a bad night for the Conservatives and also Jane Ellison, it sounds


like she is in deep trouble in bear the see in London. -- in battercy


and Amber Rudd, the Hastings' seat. I understand the possibility of a


recount. Nothing is official but potentially three Tory ministerial


scalps including the manifesto co-ordinator and Labour sources


telling me they are confident of taking seats in Scotland, at least


four, potentially as many as six. Again, defying the expectations of


what we all thought a few hours ago. What the parties themselves thought.


If these polls are anything like accurate, there are very serious


questions for all of our main political parties about how they got


it so wrong, of course for the pundits but all of the Labour MPs,


the vast majority of Labour MPs, the vast majority of Tory MPs, most


Liberal Democrat MPs and most SNP sources were all broadly in the same


place of expecting to the Tories would gain, Labour would fall back,


the question was of how much, the SNP might have a bit of the shine


coming off, but nothing too dramatic. But it maybe, again, if


this transspires, that the public have despied the political


establishment absolutely well and truly. We have another result. Is


This is the result we have had. A Conservative hold, never in doubt. A


Conservative hold for Philip who will Bonn. A very solid 58% share of


the vote there. The change overnight shows Labour making gains of 11% to


the Tories 6. There is no Ukip candidate this time round. They had


16% share of the vote. So that might explain why both of these main


parties are up. The swing this time round then has gone from the


Conservatives to Labour of about 2.6%. So not in doubt but showing


the direction of travel, certainly towards the Labour Party here.


That's the Kettering one. It is really interesting unusual seat


because Mr Hollobone had done a formal deal with Ukip. He did almost


everything he can short of joying it. He will meet them, and he is in


favour of banning the burqa and it is in favour of some of their


policies and Ukip not standing, that shows you what happens to the right


of the spectrum if Ukip doesn't stand, the Tories do well. You have


another one, do you? Not at the moment. We are looking at some


predictions. We might be able to show you some that are on a knife


edge in a moment. Let's go around the country. Let's go to Aberdeen to


Steven Dove. An update on Gordon, Alex Salmond's constituent


circumstances the former First Minister and former SNP leader. It


is interesting. I'm told the Conservatives are very happy with


the early returns from the ballot papers but a previce yo to, that the


Liberal Democrats are -- previso, the Liberal Democrats are seeing


gains. A shock might be in the cards in Gordon. To put that into context


the north-east of Scotland was a part of the country where the


Conservatives were hoping to do well. They are confident of taking


two other seats here in Aberdeen South and Aberdeenshire West Kin


car dine. So as far as you can tell, the Conservatives think things are


going their way, how many seats do you any in Scotland as a whole? The


Conservatives were hoping maybe six or seven seats in Scotland, the


north-east. Both of these seats I mentioned, Aberdeenshire South and


beer Deanshire West to Kincardine, had Conservatives recently as 1997.


So there are Conservative vote tlers but went to other parties in recent


years but the Conservatives as I say confident. -- Aberdeenshire. Now


maybe, Alex Salmond's seat of Gough earn. And we are in desh youyshire


and the Conservatives appear to think they are sneaking up on


Labour, is that right? This is one of the seats the


Conservative Party have targeted. They are ahead of schedule at the


moment here. This seat was won in 2015 by Jennifer Chapman. Not far


behind was Peter Cuthbertson, the Conservative candidate. Not sure yet


whether it is going the way of the Tories or not. It is a very


interesting area. It is heavily made up of public sector jobs. By 27% of


people here work in the public sector. The Labour manifesto plans


to increase and get rid of the cap on pay rises for public sector


workers. That may play into how people are voting. Being the


north-east and overwhelmingly voting to leave the EU, you don't know


which party that might have gone to. It is not far off now us finding out


how the vote has gone. We can go to Boston and John Swinney. What is the


story there? This -- this is where the Ukip leader is hoping to take


the seat. I don't suppose he is going to. What is your view? The


story here is we don't know. You don't know, we don't know. The


prediction is most people are saying that Paul Nuttal will not win. The


Conservatives will hold the seat. We will not know the result until about


five o'clock. What we're looking at is how much, how well will Paul


Nuttall do? Willie do well? -- will he. This is the seat in the country


which voted for Brexit more than any the seat. He should have a good


chance. Or Willie do embarrassingly badly? That is the question we are


interested in. The magic of democracy is still happening. We


won't know until a fair bit later in the evening, in the night.


We will come back and find out later. I am by the Secretary of


State for International Trade, Liam Fox. Good evening. You are back on


television then? Yes, it is going to be an interesting and a long night


for all of us. I didn't say that. You have been in hiding all this


campaign. What happened to you? I have been doing a lot of regional


television. I have to concur with what Andrew Marr was saying. There


is a different picture emerging across the country. It is entirely


possible we could still get an overall majority. What Andrew was


saying that the difference in the vaults from North to South has


certainly been a real feature. I was at a lot of seats in the north of


England where the Labour vote was softer than in London. I think we


will be seeing a lot of different results tonight. Maybe very well


into tonight, maybe tomorrow before we have a clear picture. We are


getting differential results across the country. I'm afraid we will have


to be very patient. What would you count as a good result for Theresa


May in light of what she asked for, which was strong, stable government,


and a proper majority in the House of Commons? If we win the election,


if we get an overall majority, that clearly is a win. We are seeing a


number of different things happening. We are seeing a return to


2-party politics. Looking at what I've seen so far of the total vote,


we have seen an increase in Labour and Conservative votes, as the


minority parties, low way. At that affect individual seats and how it


will work in Scotland and Wales remains to be seen. I think the one


thing we can be sure of is that a lot of the posters will have got the


result is wrong. I think we will also not see a single national swing


across the country in this election. It will be different in different


regions. Coming back to the House of Commons, if you are either the


largest party but don't have an overall majority but a small overall


majority, given that one of the reasons people say she wanted this


election was because people like you, who rather hold her feet to the


fire on Brexit, I don't know how many trade deals you have done,


would have an overdue power and influence. If that happens, if it is


a small majority, do you owe absolute loyalty to any deals he


wants to cut with anybody? Suppose she is in a position where she


relies on others to remain at Number 10, would you be supportive of


anything? Or do you have a red line. --? I don't know how many ifs there


were in that sentence, far too many! We will give our are support to the


Prime Minister. I think she was right to call the election, not just


in terms of what you might get for a majority, and I think it was a brave


decision, but we will have a parliament that runs until 2022 and


will be able to get us extra time for those Brexit negotiations.


Previously we would have been up against it to leave in 2019 and an


election in the spring of 2020. To get that extra time could be


extremely important. As Ken Clarke says, Brexit will happen. To give


ourselves the best possible deal, we need that extra time. The decision


was the right decision. We will have to wait and see. I hate to


disappoint you that we're not going to give conditions for how the next


Parliament will operate until we know what the next Parliament looks


like. Laura Kuenssberg has a question. If Theresa May have --


ends up having lost to gamble spectacularly and does not have an


overall majority, can you guarantee she will not be forced to resign? It


is very early in the evening and we will have to wait and see. I have


set through these programmes before you were told we would be in a hung


parliament. As the results have come in, we have seen the Conservatives


outperforming some of the predictions. I would be pretty happy


that the night we might do the same. And I will be spending the rest of


the night watching the results and not making too many assumptions


about what might or might not happen until we get a verdict from the


voters. If she has so badly managed expectation, do you accept her


authority will be diminished? We will see what happens in terms of


the number of seats and the vote share. We will not make any


assumptions. You can try as often as you like, but sentences that begin


with if at this time of the night are likely to be met with a response


that says we have to have strategic patients. We will have you back when


we can say, now that we know! We have an important result.


Nuneaton was quite a moment last time around. In 2015 it was the


moment Ed Miliband knew the dream was over. When we started to see the


emergence of the Conservative majority. That is why all eyes have


been on it again. Labour target 54. It would've been a steep one for


them to take. It is a conservative hold. Marcus Jones backing. This is


what happened overnight. We are looking at the Ukip vote


substantially down. It seems to have been divided between the


Conservatives and Labour. The Tories have done slightly better here than


in Kettering. It is the swing from Conservative to Labour of 0.2%. Very


little movement. Overall, what are we understanding? Very mixed


picture. Nuneaton, Kettering, similar parts of the world,


different directions. But they are both conservative holds. Broxbourne


Justin. This one, Charles Walker returned on a majority of nearly


60,000. Ukip was in second place last time around. I can show you


what that looks like in terms of what has happened. Down 16%. Labour


up by ten. The Conservatives up by six. The swing is 2.2% from


Conservative to Labour. All pretty small swings so far. The movement is


hard to detect in terms of the direction of travel from one party


to another. What do you read into this? I understand from Tory


sources, Jane Ellison, Treasury Minister, has lost in London


Battersea. No official confirmation but Tory sources saying she has


lost. Labour sources confident of taking Northampton North. The kind


of part of the country were marginals are extremely important.


That is held by the deputy Leader of the House of Commons, Michael Ellis,


another important Tory potentially losing his seat. Labour also


confident of taking Thurrock in the South East, weren't Ukip had an


extremely strong. You might have expected it to go the other way.


North - south divide? Absolutely. Evidence of that emerging. That may


be what we see. Generally -- generational divides, North, South,


urban versus normal middle Britain. Very different divides. Completely


new landscape. May be a new post-referendum map. -- maybe. We


said it would throw everything up in the air. This is the first real


chance we have to see where the pieces will land. It must be


disconcerting for the politicians to see the pattern breaking like this.


It is no longer binary. It has suddenly become this, that and the


other. Indeed. It is a strange thing because what we have seen in the


last few elections is a splintering of the two tribes system. It seems


at this early stage that we are returning to the two tribes of their


members are in different places. We shouldn't forget this is also


affected by the campaign we have just had. I don't think anybody


expected the Tory campaign to be so faltering, and the Prime Minister to


look frankly so unhappy. Nobody expected Jeremy Corbyn to be such a


cracking campaigner. Just on what Laura was saying about the


generation of the void. Lily Allen has just said if Theresa May wins


young Labour supporters need to rally around Corbyn protect him from


another coup. It is one of the emerging ideas of this evening, that


lots of Corbynista 's, people are belong to Momentum, the less they


have pulled off this shock result, they need to get their due. Young


people feel they have swallowed for him. They will want to be an active


part, an act of lobby group, 20 pulled Jeremy Corbyn towards him.


They feel he made a bold offer with the cancellation of tuition fees.


One of the things they are talking about tonight is that they feel they


may have pulled the rug from under Theresa May. We are doing this for


the benefit of people who don't follow social media. Some people may


actually not be on Twitter! This is on Twitter? Indeed. Good!


We have a chance to take stock with two seasoned election watchers,


Daniel Finkelstein and Andrew runs Lee. -- Andrew runs Lee. What does


it suggest to you so far? One thing it suggests to me is that we might


be seeing some revenge of the Remainers. Before the campaign we


thought Remain voters may be a factor. But where are they? The Lib


Dems are struggling. I live next door to the batters see seat where


the Treasury Minister, Jane Ellison, is defending. We heard earlier that


she has probably lost that seat. Quite a large majority. Battersea is


within Wandsworth, where three out of four people voted to remain. I


wonder if that is going on. I think that maybe part of a broader story,


which explains why the Tories have done worse than everybody expected.


This north, thing. The Tories were so fixated on going after Labour in


the Midlands and the north, they rather neglected the south-east of


England and London. They are also crucial part of the country when you


are fighting an election. We heard the official line from Liam Fox.


What will they really be thinking, the party, the leadership? Theresa


May fought the election because she needed a bigger majority than the


one she had. It looks like she will get a less big majority. If a


majority at all. That putting question the plan she had. I think


what Andrew has said and what Laura has said is correct. What we are


seeing is a realignment. The Conservatives have gone after poorer


voters, less well-educated people who voted Leave, Labour is moving


upscale, getting more graduates, younger people who may have voted


Remain. This changes the map. It is not entirely surprising. We have


seen bigger swings to the Conservatives in the north and


Labour doing well in the south. She ends up with a reduced majority are


no majority, what does that mean for our position? The position of the


entire party and her will be weak. If you get no majority at all, the


leader can't stay. I can say it more bluntly than you. If it is a hung


parliament, her authority is utterly shredded. She went for an early


election which she didn't have to call and threw away the majority she


already had. Whether that makes it, even if she could struggle on, the


Conservatives can put together some sort of arrangement with the Ulster


Unionists, obviously her authority is shredded. It doesn't make it an


easy solution as to whether or not you remove her. Ken Clarke was right


earlier, that the Conservatives would creep to some sort of majority


by the time the night is over, that is a bit better. At least she has a


majority. But it is not what Conservatives were expecting. I


think she thought -- she fought such a presidential campaign. It was all


about her. It will be difficult to blame her colleagues. You had to


fight a presidential campaign if you wanted to win northern seats. It was


a tip-off of the sort of campaign they were fighting. There was was a


danger with their campaign you would enter up doing better in those seats


but not winning them, and meanwhile losing some of your heartland seats.


It was a mistake, the U-turn over social care? Obviously that was a


big moment. If you are fighting a campaigner depending on you being


seen as strong and stable and you do a U-turn, that will damage you. We


have to look at deeper things. One of the things Jeremy Corbyn said


they would excite young people with this move to the left, everyone


disagreed with it. I was one of those people who thought it wouldn't


work. We have to look much deeper for a sort of realignments that


happen, not just choose social care. This is more profound.


Many people were sceptical on turnout from the young and we


haven't had many result but there is a suggestion that young voters have


come out and probably favoured Labour largely, maybe the revenge of


the young, they felt a bit treat cheated by the 2015 election result


and more cheated in the referendum in 2016. That may well have


motivated them to say - this time we'll vote. Look at the bigger


narrative. Don't concentrate on one or two campaign points. Think about


what Jeremy Corbyn may have achieved in increasing the seats and this


realignment in the north and south. We will talk to you more throughout


the night. Thank you both very much for now. David. Sean LLay is in


Leeds and has news of the election there. One of the biggest counts in


the country taking place. Eight constituencies. After Birmingham


this is the bigger council area in England. They go well out into the


countryside which is why this is a city which managed for 30-odd years


to imyou will Tynously to elect both Denis Healey from the Labour Party


and Sir Keith Joseph, Margaret Thatcher's guru from the


Conservatives. At the moment it is a three-party city -- simultaneously.


A seat held by Greg mull hull land by the skin of his teeth where most


Liberal Democrat seats fell, that has seen a significant increase in


the number of new registrations. Remember the majority was 2,500. If


they are new, young voters inspired by Jeremy Corbyn that would be


trouble for Greg Mulholland. And the mo. Rrley, where the Ed Balls vote


came through last time. And he was ousted. A Labour source said tonight


fsh if we have fallen short here it is because the Ukip vote. They are


not standing giving the Tories a free run and an extra potential


7,000 votes. Having said all of that, we have not seen the MP


herself yet here, and they are not looking bouncy and chipper. I think


it really could be at this stage one of the tight results that will make


for a very interesting night. Thank you, Sean. Let's go to Huddersfield.


Counting hasn't started properly. But we have four seats up to grab


and in 2015 two of the Ukip seats was larger than the Conservative


majority so the question is where will they go? I have to say one of


the very interesting things is that there is no purple on the floor.


Ukip didn't put up any candidates in these seats. So where will the votes


go? I'm picking up a very mixed picture, if you take Dewsbury, for


example a Labour seat, number 14 on the Tory target list. I spoke to the


Conservative agent a little while ago. He said he absolutely does not


recognise the exit poll. He said that's not what they have been fed


on the doorstep and they are very bullish that they can win Dewsbury.


But then there is Colne Valley, which at the moment is a Tory seat.


I have been speaking to senior Labour figures here, they believe


they have won Colne Valley which would be a big surprise. I spoke to


the candidate herself, the Labour candidate and she said she watched


young people queueing at the polling stations today, queueing up to vote


and she said it will be the young round here who win it for her. Well


thanks very much. This issue of the young is fascinating because it was


what, all the way through one was picking up, I mean from social


media, from young people that I knew who were enthused... From real life.


Talking about an energy nobody noticed From real life, seeing


Jeremy Corbyn rallies. He was going around the country attracting hugs


numbers of young people to his events. One of the cure osities, was


time after time he was holding the events in safe Labour seats. That


led to head scratching, he wasn't doing the micro-target marriage na.s


people thought he was wasting his time -- marginals. People thought


leaders should only turn up to places where the votes were on a


knife edge but it gave a sense of excitement around and on TV and


there was a giant question mark over whether or not young people would


turn up at the ballot box because history tells us there can be


excitement generated. If we think about Nick Clegg in 2010 or the


Scottish independence referendum, for example, huge enthusiasm for


particular politics but it maybe this time it has transspired. We


have a result from Darlington. I hereby declare and give notice the


total number of votes given to each candidate was as follow: Kevin Brac,


UK Independence Party, 1,180. Chapman, Jennifer, Jenny Chapman,


Labour Party, 22,681. Anne-Marie Curry, Liberal Democrat,


1,031. Peter Cuthbertson, the Conservative Party, 19,401.


Matthew sned Kerr, 524. Therefor, I nearby give public notice that Jenny


Chapman is elected Member of Parliament for the Darlington


constituency. Bad for the Conservatives that one. Labour hold


the seat. Darlington was a crucial seat for the Tories, trying to make


in-roads into the north-east. If they had a hope of a chunky


majority, Darlington was going to be the first sign of the night that


they were on course to get there. Jenny Chapman holding on is crucial,


therefore, and that will be a disappointment in Conservative


Central Office. Two other snippets reaching me. Labour think they've


gained Aberconwy in Wales and also Gower in Wales. Let's see the


results in Darlington, the share of the vote. And the change since last


time. And we'll have a word with John Curtice about what this says


for the outcome of the election. There we are. Up 8% for Labour, up


8% for the Conservatives. Down 10% for Ukip and a swing from Labour to


Conservatives, just 0.2%. John. Well just to reemphasise what Laura has


says. Darlington was meant to be the seat that told us that Theresa May


was heading for a landslide and instead Labour have held it. In the


exit poll we were expecting a very small swing to Labour of no more


than 1% point. In the end it is slightly to the Conservatives. But


there is one broader pattern. It looks like the exit poll has


underestimated the Conservative performance in many although not all


seats in the north-east of England. That probably is one area where in


the end the Conservatives will do better than expected but I think


everything we have heard so far, in terms of result and also in terms of


the information that is coming out of counts, doesn't give any reason


to believe that the exit polls are necessarily going to be wrong across


England as a whole. What evidence do you have about Ukip voters. They


have had the chance to vote Ukip in some constituencies. In others there


is not candidate so anybody who voted Ukip two years ago has to go


somewhere else. What is your view of what they are doing? It is early to


talk clearly about that but one thing to say, even on the early


results it looks as though the Conservative vote has advanced most


in places that voted Leave, which of course tend to be places with a high


Ukip vote and Labour are advancing most in places that voted Remain,


which of course tend to be places with a low Ukip vote. I think we'll


discover at the end of the night as we saw with local elections,


Ukip-Leave places are the places where the Conservatives make most


gross. Whether it is counterbalanced with Labour doing well in the more


Remain areas of the country. As I said earlier this is probably going


to be an election where Brexit has played a crucial role in shaping the


character of the vote. We should go north of the border again, to


Scotland to see what is happening in Scotland. And remember the SNP at


the dissolution, 56 seats and they are under threat, it seems from the


Liberal Democrats and from the Conservatives and from Labour, to


some extent. Jeremy. Yes, we will do. We will look at the Scottish


seats in a moment but first look at the whole map of the UK. It is worth


us saying, a lot of conversation about a lot of seats but much is


exit poll-based. Top To here you can see the actual results we have got.


The spots of blue are the holds for the Conservatives in coatering and


Swindon and Nuneaton, Broxbourne and so


the Conservatives in coatering and Swindon and Nuneaton, Broxbourne and


so on. -- Then you have the seats in the north-east, Newcastle and the


north-west. But most of the map I'm standing on is grey. The actual


results are not yet in. There are still a lot of exciting hours to


come on the counts up and down the country but as David said, let's


look at Scotland. We move the map on and focus on the result last time,


an extraordinary result. When you think in a lot of elections the


Scottish National Party were getting maybe six seats, seven seats,


suddenly they get 56 out of 59. So they get all but three of the seats


in Scotland and other main parties get one each. It is extraordinary.


This is their battled ground. It is ordered like this, the most marginal


one on the top right. Very tight for the SNP up there. Two years ago.


Dunbartonshire East, Jo Swinton for the Liberal Democrats. Very tight.


As we go down the board, the majorities of the seats get bigger


and safer. So I will ask the board to input the exit poll and see what


we are expecting to happen in Scotland. What you see first of all


is that the fist twocould ups, 16 seats here, have been cut a swathe


through by the Liberal Democrats and Labour and the Conservatives, all


working against the SNP. So, the first seat the most marginal, we


have under the exit poll, going to Conservatives. We then have, if the


colours are difficult here just look at the party icons along the left.


If they are white it means it is just a forecast. Dunbartonshire


East, Liberal Democrats, as does Edinburgh West and Labour taking


Renfrewshire East and so on down the line we G very good results here for


the Liberal Democrats in Scotland. They are getting MPs back in the


House of Commons through Scotland through the SNP's retreat here We go


all the way down through the second column and get to Argyll and Bute


and that is the first SNP hold in our exit poll. So up until that


point, they've lost, for example, to the Liberal Democrats, Gordon, the


seat of Alex Salmond, their former leader. They have also then,


actually it doesn't stop there, as you go on, you see them losing


Moray, Angus Robertson, the Leader of the House of Commons, for the


SNP. He would be out under the exit poll. Perth and North Perthshire


going Conservative and Glasgow Central, quite a big majority there,


going Labour. Stirling going Conservative. And look down to the


end of the graphic, you will see completing the set of 56 SNP seats


last time, Angus, where the majority is over 10,000, maybe 11,000, going


to the Conservatives. This is still just the exit poll. For now the map


is coloured in, or it was coloured in all yellow. Now we've coloured it


in according to the exit poll and you see how that result from two


years ago looks extraordinary. As Kirsty Washing was saying it


earlier. So we wait it see what happens. We don't have any real


results but Scotland is changing, it seems, David. Thank you very much.


Well now, we are going to Scotland and join Douglas Alexander and


Well now, we are going to Scotland and join Douglas Alexander and


Douglas, of course you were the election co-ordinator for a kind of


Blairite view of the Labour Party, Ed Miliband be and before that with


Gordon Brown and Tony Blair. What do you make of the success of Jeremy


Corbyn? It is a new kind of Labour Party that is emerging, it seems? I


think people, young people in particular are hard wired for hope


and I can't honestly remember as hopeless a campaign from a


Government, a Conservative Government that we've witnessed from


Theresa May. So out of the border it seems to me the Conservatives are


being punished for the campaign they've run and north of the border


the SNP tide is flooding out. How far that tide falls we'll see in the


course of the coming hours but there is no doubt that both the parties of


Government. The Conservatives in England and the Scottish National


Party, ooer here have been rejected when they were anticipating much,


much stronger results. Do you think Ed Miliband was too cautious in the


sort of Labour policy that he presented two years ago? I always


think there is a whole range of factors that make up any election


defeat or any election victory. Some people say that this manifesto is


very similar to Ed Miliband's, obviously it is very different. Some


people say Jeremy is very similar to Ed Miliband, some people say he is


different. The truth is I'm more interested in what lies ahead for


the Labour Party and it looks like we are making gains not just here in


Scotland, against many people's expectations, but also right across


England. Are you going to see your old seat, which Mhari Black took


from you to the SNP, is that going back to Labour? My sense is, it is


too close to call but it is a number of seats across central Scotland


where people were writing us off but the implications are that Labour are


very much back in the game and in every part of Scotland we are seeing


that very high tide we saw for the SNP just two years ago falling


backwards and it looks like a difficult night for a party that


couldn't really decide, was this an election about Brexit or an election


about a second independence referendum. It has done huge damage


to those people arguing for a second independence referendum because


politics, as we know is about momentum and here the SNP are


falling backwards as surely as the Conservatives are not moved forward


south of the border. Are you surprised at the Corbyn


effect? You talk about idealism among the young, yesterday evening,


I think it was, in London, he had crowds not of a thousand, but


thousands we're told. There's a couple of points. I'd probably be


the last person you'd need to convince not to believe opinion


polls during election campaigns, given what I lived through a couple


of years ago. In that sense, I was waiting to see what would happen.


There is no doubt that Jeremy Corbyn has campaigned with spirit and with


a sense of authenticity that was wholly lacking from the Conservative


campaign, if you like, the contrast suited Labour. Jeremy arguing for a


politics that he clearly believes in and on the other hand, Theresa May


apparently unable to answer the most basic and straightforward questions


when she was asked. In that sense, this particular contest has


emphasised a fundamentally different vision for the country and a


different way for doing politics. Of course, like in every election,


there will be lessons to learn. Even at this point in the evening, we've


had so few rupts, one thing we can say for sure is that Jeremy Corbyn


is safe as leader of the Labour Party, so long as he wants to be.


He's had a great campaign. We've had 15 results in. It's just after 1am.


Time for us to have a bulletin of the news. Let's see the New


Broadcasting House, the old Broadcasting House on the left. The


new one curling round there on the right. It's still just showing our


exit poll. We haven't adjusted that yet. We will start to show when we


get more than 15 results in what's happened.


Let's have the latest news. The first results have been declared


in the general election. Remember has held the party's safe seats. But


the Conservatives took more votes in all three constituencies than at the


2015 election. An exit poll for the BBC, ITV and Sky has predict the the


Tories will be the biggest party but won't have a majority. It says


they'll have lost 17 seats but Labour will have made gains. The


poll predicts losses for the Scottish National Party. The


night began with a big projection, the exit poll. Studied closely by


the politicians. But remember, it's still just a forecast. It has the


Conservatives as the largest party. But short of an overall majority


much the poll suggests the Tories would have 314 seats, down 17 on two


years ago. It puts Labour on 266 seats, up 34. The SNP would get 34


seats and the Lib Dems 14. This is a projection. I think you made that


clear. It's not a result. These exit polls have been wrong in the past. I


think in 2015 they underestimated our vote. In a couple of elections


before that, they overestimated our vote. Theresa May promised us on


seven different occasion that's she wouldn't go for a snap election. She


went for it to scour a mandate that she already had. People saw through


that. It's the real votes that count, though. There's the


traditional race to see which constituency could declare first.


Labour have just held Darlington. There was a marginal swing to the


Tories, but nowhere near the kind of success they would have needed in


the north of England for any kind of land slide. Two other seats won by


Labour in north-east England show the Tories have done better than the


exit poll might have suggested. The festival of democracy has been on


full show. Watch out for some upsets through the night. At least one


minister's seat could be in question and Ukip's vote appears to be


collapsing in places. Good evening Mr Corbyn, how are you feeling?


Jeremy Corbyn arrived home in his North London constituency tonight.


If the exit poll is correct, a big if, he will have confounded the


expectations of even his own MPs. While Theresa May's gamble to win


big in a snap election will have failed. But the night is young and


the truth inside those ballot box ises yet to be revealed. -- boxes is


yet to be revealed. With the news of the exit poll


the pound has been falling against other currencies,


including the dollar and the euro. Let's get the latest reaction


from Sharanjit Leyl in Singapore. As you say, the most immediate


reaction has been from the Sterling falling nearly


2% against the dollar. The exit poll suggested


the Conservative Party could lose its


overall majority. It has since scaled


back those losses. The Conservatives may be doing


slightly better than that exit poll suggested. The pound down 1. 5%


against the US dollar and major currencies. Analysts have been


saying that it's likely the pound will continue falling as Asian


markets open. A hung Parliament is the worst case scenario for the


pound given the political uncertainty it brings. It could


complicate Brexit talks further. Something markets and investors


don't like. Asian markets have just opened in the last few minutes and


they are higher at the moment. Only just.


The former director of the FBI, James Comey, has told a Senate


committee he felt he'd been ordered by Donald Trump to drop


an inquiry into links between the president's former


National Security Adviser and Russia.


Now back to David. It's interesting how this election


is proven very exciting. We've had 15 declarations and no change of


control of any of the 15 seats. Nevertheless, what's happening under


that is proving quite riveting in terms of Labour's advance, the


Conservatives retreat in some places, advance in the others. Let's


go to Swindon south. ... The result of the poll for the election of the


member of Parliament for south Swinton. I, being the acting


returning officer, give notice that the number of votes recorded for


each candidate at this election is as follows: The Conservative Party


candidate, 24,809. Labour and Co-operative party, 22,345...


CHEERING ... United Kingdom Independence


Party 1,291. The Green Party, 747. And Liberal Democrats, 2,079. There


were 87 bat ol papers -- ballot papers rejected. I declare Robert


Buckland is duly elected the member of Parliament for south Swindon.


So a close result in Swindon south. The Conservatives hold onto the


seat. 24,80. We were expecting this one to be close. We were. This is


the kind of thing that will make CCHQ nervous. First Welsh result is


coming in from Wrexham. Let's go there.


... Welsh Conservative Party, 15,321.


APPLAUSE Plaid Cymru 1,753.


APPLAUSE Welsh Labour, 17,153.


APPLAUSE Well, there we are. We have the


result there. Labour hold Wrexham. The Conservatives were hoping to


take Wrexham. It's in part of the country, Theresa May went there


several times during the campaign. She spent a lot of time in Wales.


They were hopeful of taking quite a number of seats. Labour in contrast


is hopeful not just of holding seats in Wales, but actually of adding


seats in Wales. I've been told in the last few minutes, they expect to


take Cardiff north. Labour sources telling me they have won Rutherglen


in Scotland and confident of gaining East Lothian. Against the party's


private expectation, we are seeing in Wales and Scotland, Labour taking


rather than just holding their own or even falling back. Interesting


that there were 5,000 Ukip votes last time round, two years ago cast


in Wrexham. No Ukip candidate this time. Where did the votes go? It


comes down to what John and Peter were discussing before, where does


the Ukip vote split? The expectation at the beginning of this campaign,


what the local election results suggested was that Ukip vote would


go primarily and potentially dramatically to the Tories. From the


actual results we're seeing tonight, that is not happening. It may well


be that the Tories made a strategic mistake by assuming that Ukip voters


were basically Tories in disguise who had been more grumpy than


everybody else about Europe over the years. But many Ukip voters were


former Labour voters. That may part of the problem here. Llanelli. This


is the Shadow Defence Secretary's seat. It's been held by Labour. This


was a Plaid Cymru target. You can see how well they've done here. They


started with a majority of 7,095. They have returned on a majority of


12,000. Labour up 12%, the Conservatives


also making gains, we assume at the expense of Ukip and Plaid Cymru down


here. The swing towards Labour. It's not huge. Conservatives would have


needed a swing of what, 9% to take this seat. Ittess stab lishes Labour


quite firmly again in this seat in Wales. How important is Wales going


to be, John on these results? We had limited number of sampling points


from the exit polls in Wales. Such as we had, suggested that maybe the


Conservatives would do rather better in Wales than in some other parts of


England. First two results don't corroborate that expectation. We


have virtually no swing in Wrexham, a small swing to Labour in Llanelli.


It looks as though the Conservatives aren't going to get particular


solace in the principality in the way we might have anticipated. We've


got another one come in. An extraordinary one. Laura was saying


earlier, she heard that the Labour Party had taken seats from the SNP?


Scotland. I don't know if this is a shoring up of that Unionist vote


that we were talking about. You can see how tight that is, 38% to 37%.


It wasn't coming up in a list of things we could easily predict


because it was on a knife edge. You can see now the drop very clearly of


16% for the SNP, Conservatives making gains here at the expense of


the SNP. But that puts Labour, who is in second place, in poll position


there to take it. They've had a slight rise. That swing then towards


Labour of 8. 9%. That's huge. Not huge when we compare it to some of


those extraordinary swings we saw in Scotland towards the SNP two years


ago. But those were unprecedented. This is something that Labour will


be getting the bunting out for I would have thought. On extraordinary


result in Scotland. Quick comment on that one? This is the first evidence


that the exit polls expectation that the SNP are going to suffer quite


substantial losses north of the border looks as though it's right.


At the beginning of the night, this was something about which we were


least certain. Here's a piece of hard evidence that the SNP are


losing ground quite substantially north of the border. Let's' join


Michelle with two guests. With me are Hamsa Housef of the SNP


and Peter Hain who served under Gordon Brown and Tony Blair. Let's


talk about the picture painted by the exit poll in Scotland and we've


had the first Scottish results in. It's not looking like a good night


for the SNP. Let's put this in some context. I have to start with the


caveats all your guests have in terms of the exit poll and whether


it's correct or not. Early days and the voting is still very much going


on. What I would say, is to put it into context, which has been


missing, is that if the exit poll is correct, I think that's a big if, I


have to say from hearing results on the ground. But if it is correct, 34


seats would still mean that the SNP wins the election, wins the majority


of seats and that's after being ten years in Government. I don't think


anybody expected the SNP to reach that high water mark. It's only two


years since the 2015 election and all those seats thaw took. -- that


you took. What is your own party data suggesting about how many you


are likely to lose? Exceptional result in 2015, a once in a century


result, 95% of the seats coming towards the SNP. I don't think


anybody expected that. It's happened again, I think, there's going to be


a difficult night for some of our colleagues. Why? It's sad when you


lose colleagues. There are a number of factors. It's too tight to call


in a number of races here. It seems very clear that where there is,


wherein previous elections the anti-independence vote has split


between three parties, it seems perhaps it's co-alessing around the


candidates most likely to defeat the SNP. It is early days. I'm not quite


convinced that 34 is as low as we'll' go. I think we'll go higher


than that. You're a former Welsh secretary and we've had the two


results in from Wales seats that the Conservatives were really hoping to


get. Yes, Theresa May put enormous effort


into seats like Wrexham. We haven't heard Bridgend yet but we went


there. We'll hold it well and we'll have a good night in Wales. I hear


we are taking Gower back from the Conservatives, I hear also we are


going to take the Vale of Clwyd with its excellent former Labour MP back.


Welsh Labour is doing very well. Overall, I think this is a positive


result for Jeremy Corbyn. I didn't support him for the leadership but


he's harnessed an enormous protest movement about what is going on in


this country. Is it that he's harnessed the youth vote? The youth


vote, yes, but also the student debt, the fact that the economy is


more and more austerity when it's totally unnecessary. We are a richer


society than we've ever been in our history and can't provide houses for


people and secure jobs. I think there's a popular revolt against


that and I think it's part of a wider that he's able to harness. I


don't think people saw him as a Prime Minister but they did see him


as somebody who is speaking for their values against against a


political class that have not been listening to them. Hamza, when Emily


Thornberry spoke earlier, he said clearly Labour is now going to look


to form a Government and that it will be looking to other parties for


support of one kind or another because otherwise they would be


letting the Tories back in? The First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has


said we'd talk to Labour in terms of a progressive alliance along with


Plaid Cymru and the Green Party. It wouldn't be a formal coalition. We'd


look at it on an issue by issue on whether we could form a minority


Government, for example, because we'd like to keep Labour out. I'm


not taking away from Jeremy Corbyn's campaigning skills or otherwise, but


we have to accept that Theresa May's run probably the worst campaign any


of us have seen from a Prime Minister in modern British political


history. You feel a reaction against that on the ground. People didn't


like the idea of an arrogant evasive Tory Prime Minister wanting a


landslide. I think there was a kick back against that. The issue for


Labour going forward is, are we yet seen as a party of power? Do we have


a leader who could be seen stepping into Number Ten and, do we have a


party that is trusted by those on the centre ground. You don't sound


sure? In Nuneaton for example, that's the sort of seat we need to


take to be in Government. Having said that, Jeremy Corbyn deserves a


huge amount of credit for harnessing this great surge of young people and


not just of young people but a lot of people who haven't voted Labour


out of much enthusiasm but have been voting against the Tories. Now


people are saying, actually, we like his policies, we may not see him as


a Prime Minister but like his policies. Just to add to that, I


wouldn't take away from it, many things are being implemented north


of the border such as abolishing tuition fees. There was the idea


that you had to be centre or centre right to win an election. Clearly


you can present a manifesto on the left as we have done in Scotland for


over ten years and be successful but it sounds like people in England in


the political class are waking up to that. Do you think the prospect of a


second referendum riled a lot of people? The party that wins the


election generally gets the mandate so we'd have the mandate of course,


not to ensure a hard Brexit isn't imposed upon Scotland but that no UK


Government would block the second referendum. Sorry to stop you,


but... It's up for grabs in terms of its battle in Parliament. It will be


very difficult for Theresa May to get a hard right Brexit she was


wanting. Thank you. David? We said earlier on Amber Rudd the


Home Secretary seemed to be in difficulty in Hastings. This is what


she said. It's just her words. She arrived at her count a moment ago.


REPORTER: How do you think it's going? I'm not going to engage much


until we are clearer where it is at the moment. I'm quietly waiting and


keeping an eye on everybody and everything. How confident are you?


I'm just hopeful but not complacent. OK. Thank you. That doesn't get you


very far. But anyway... Her words don't but the look on her face I


think rather did. They're very worried about it even though we


don't have the final result. You have news on other seats? I do. Iain


Murray, the Labour Party's only Scottish MP for Edinburgh South


apparently achieved a huge increase in his majority to well over 10,000.


Even better news for Labour from that, I understand that they've


taken Pudsey in Yorkshire from the Tory MP Stuart Andrew. I understand


they are also expecting to beat Anna Soubry, the former minister who was


a very prominent Remainor. She's held her seat. The biggest scalp so


far that Labour are ready to say they believe they've taken,


according to sources, is beating Nick Clegg in Sheffield Hallam. We


touched on that briefly. It appears the Labour Party's effort there has


won out. Perhaps the Sheffield Hallam students are still around


after all. You said Anna Soubry has lost? Sources tell me that Labour


has taken her seat, not officially confirmed but Labour believes they


have taken it. One of the other interesting constituencies was


Richmond Park in Surrey on the Thames where there Goldsmith who


resigned over the third runway. Oh, we have a result coming in now.


Samira, stay with us for a moment and let's hear this result from


Tooting. Back with you in a second. Good evening. The declaration of the


result of the poll for the Parliamentary election in the London


borough of Wandsworth Tooting constituency held on the 8th June,


2017. I, James Madden being the returning officer for the Tooting


constituency hereby give notice the of the total number of votes given


here is as follows: The Labour Party, 34,...


CHEERING AND APPLAUSE. 34,694. Ukip. 339.


Liberal Democrats, 3,057. APPLAUSE.


The Green party, 845. The Conservative Party candidate,


19,236. So Labour holds it with a big increase in their majority. The


Conservative vote well down. This is the seat that Sadiq Khan used to sit


in and he became the Mayor of London. Rosena Allin-Khan took the


seat. A majority. Up 12,000 that majority. Very interesting. This is


exactly the kind of seat that just a fortnight or three weeks ago the


Labour Party was extremely worried about. We were there on a visit


relatively earlier on in the campaign, it's an area that's been


changing dem graphically. On paper it looked like it was heading


towards the Conservatives. The old gentrification? Indeed, someone well


regarded as a young generation of Labour MPs coming up. A thumping MP


for her. The London effect. The division we have been talking, the


north going a bit more Tory and the south going a bit Labour. Important


seats in the south that Labour hasn't been thinking about hard for


a long time and they are picking up one after another now. Let's hear


from Samira. Sorry I didn't hear from you before, in Richmond Park.


Zac Goldsmith is trying to take the seat back from the Liberal Democrats


who took it at the by-election that he forced when he was against


Heathrow. What is happening? Well, it's really interesting. Turnout is


a big, big factor. So Richmond Park, in the by-election was an amazing


win for the Liberal Democrats. Day took a post-EU referendum rebellion.


The turnout then was 53%. They say 76% now. It's very early. The


indications we get from talking to people is I think Zac Goldsmith is


thinking he could win this seat back. The other seat being counted


here at Twickenham Stadium is of course Twickenham, which is the


Vince Cable seat that he lost in a big shock in 2015. The turnout's


gone up a little here too to just under 80% and we really pick up a


strong sense that they are quietly confident that Vince Cable could win


this back, what Liberal Democrats seem to be hearing on the street, it


was a protest element vote in 2015, an element of some staying away,


people are turning out to vote now because they think it matters


although Brexit may not be the issue that the Lib Dems thought it was six


months ago, it's more of a general picture about anti-hard Brexit and


protect the NHS. Two seats could be changing. Vince Cable could be on


course to win back Twickenham and Zac Goldsmith now a Conservative


today having stood as an independent in that by-election that he called


might be able to take back the seat from the Lib Dems who claimed it as


such a triumph only six months ago. Bermondsey and old Southwark, Geeta


is there. What is the news there? Well, it does look as though Labour


have held this seat, possibly with an increased majority, some reports


saying even that the majority might have doubled for Neil Coyle of


Labour. Now, he has been a prominent critic of Jeremy Corbyn and it will


be very interesting to see what he and others in the moderate part of


the Labour Party now do. If there was to be, for example, a minority


Labour Government, of course it's very early days still, but Simon


Hughes had fought this seat very hard. His team accepting


unofficially but they think it's possibly not gone their way tonight.


They think it's part of a national swing, part of a bigger youth


turnout, they say there's been a 25% turn in this seat of people, people


who perhaps don't recognise or remember Simon Hughes's record, he


was here for 32 years as an MP until 2015. I was here two years ago,


there was a very big change, a very big shock, of course, when he lost


that seat. Neil Coyle defending a 4,500 majority and it looks as


though Labour has been successful. They say they have had about a


thousand volunteers on the streets and Neil Coyle's just in fact


entered the hall here. I should just say also that in this hall just a


few hours ago, the book of condolences was placed. Theresa May


and Sadiq Khan both signed that. That was for the London Bridge


attack. A very emotional week here. Paisley and Renfrewshire south. We


were talking about that a moment ago. The SNP held that. Here is the


result. The Liberal Democrats, 1,327. The


Scottish Conservative and Unionist, 8,122.


The total number of votes was 41,771. Therefore, I declare that


Mhairi Black is duly elected as the Member of Parliament for


Renfrewshire south. Thank you. CHEERING AND APPLAUSE.


When elected she was the youngest MP, it was said, since the great


Reform Act. She was kept by the Labour Party rather under wraps. She


wasn't allowed to go out and take part, SNP rather, wasn't allowed to


go out and speak very much on television and radio. Because I


think they thought she was too inexperienced. She's done well


there. Her previous majority of 5,685. Tom Watson's constituency,


the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party... He's held on it. Let's hear


what he has to say about Labour's result so far. We've got 34 results


in, just to remind you. I'm very proud to have been re-elected as the


MP for west West Bromich east and I'm deeply grateful for those voters


who have voted for me. I promise I will do my best to repay the trust


you place in me. I'll continue to work for all people in our


community. My congratulations and my respect to all of my opponents in


this election. You've all fought a very good campaign, a fair campaign


and in the right spirit. Thank you for putting yourselves forward and


my very best wishes to you all for the future. We still don't know the


final result of this election. It is too early to say. But it looks like


(inaudible) The lights have - oh, he's back. He's been cut off in his


prime. This is awkward though. He's back, but now he's silent. So we


shan't hear what he says. Let's join Michelle and try to find out the


important thing that Tom Watson was going to be saying.


Happily we can pick up with the Shadow Attorney-General. Thank you,


I'm happy to fill in for Tom Watson on this occasion. What was he going


to say? This has been a victory for hope over fear. I hope he was going


to say that people try to destroy our democracy in recent weeks and I


hope that we will see a great turnout when we actually do the


maths in the morning and people turned up in their droves and they


queued up at polling stations in an election that people tried to


disrupt. That in itself is a victory, regardless of where we go -


of course, I'm feeling optimistic and feeling better, but the main


thing is this was a victory for democracy over terrorism. What is


the key to the gains that Labour has made? I think that Jeremy Corbyn ran


a fantastic, positive campaign. I think - I'm new to party politics.


You know from years of us talking that I was a cross-party human


rights campaigner for many years. Like so many people, hundreds of


thousands of people in Britain, I joined Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party


because of his message of hope over fear and cynicism. Goodness me, it


seems to have taken. But the question now is what he does with


the result that it is looking like is going to be delivered. Let's see.


Let's see. On the basis of the exit poll and the results we're seeing so


far, Theresa May is not going to get what she hoped for. Now, are there


already calls being made, feelers put out to parties that Labour would


hope to support a Queen's Speech that it would put forward? I'm


sitting here with you, so goodness knows what calls have been made. I'm


not making those calls because I'm sitting with you. Goodness me, what


a positive signal and I think that there are a lot of people who'll be


sitting up at home tonight thinking, hope triumphs over fear. A campaign


that was about policy and not about being nasty to politicians - But is


it Labour's hope to form a minority Government? It is Labour's hope to


form a Government. It is always Labour's hope to form a Government.


A few weeks ago, we were, you know the whole point of this snap


election that wasn't supposed to happen, the whole point of the snap


election was that Theresa May, who was never - let's be clear - like


me, she wasn't elected to be leader of her party. She wasn't elected to


be Prime Minister. You said you were new to politics, and she was a long


serving Cabinet minister and elected MP for many years. I'm not an


elected politician. I'm an advisor. Like millions of people in this


country, who want something positive, would wants to get rid of


poverty and tuition fees. As a key member of Jeremy Corbyn's team I'm


keen for a sense of how a future, whether it is, I mean, a future


Government or minority Government, but Labour would work? We are at a


point where Brexit negotiatiations are going to start one way or


another within days. Can you imagine that a Government led by Labour on


the basis of a result that mirrors this exit poll could negotiate with


the EU from a position of strength? I think that politics has changed,


whatever happens tonight, politics in this country has changed.


Jeremy's whole style of politics and the whole style of politics that's


confounded every one of your panellists down there and everybody


that's sat here with you before, the whole style has changed. It's more


consensual, it's more about policies and issues and not a tribal thing


almost. I think hope springs eternal at this moment. I just certained my


solidarity to everybody at home who's sitting up wanting a country


for the many and not the few. And in particular, to the victims and their


families of these terrorist atrocities that were designed to


scare us and were designed to frankly probably stop the general


election. It happened. People have come out so far in their droves.


Let's see what happens. Thank you. Let's talk about the Labour Party


and what they might do, if this exit poll turns out right or if they do a


bit better? The very first time, we have to start to get our heads


around how Labour might deal with Brexit, how a Labour minority


Government, working alongside the SNP, might be different in their


Brexit negotiations. We haven't been thinking about this at all for


obvious reasons. But a few things are very important. One, it would


still be a huge row over the exit bill, the amount of money being


paid. Because every pound a Labour Government spent to Brussels would


be a pound they couldn't spend on the NHS or a priority at home. Point


two, however, I think Labour would be much more open to a deal over


some kind of European Court overseeing the rights of EU


citizens. A crucial issue for the lead EU negotiator, Michel Barnier.


They would want to have the SNP involved. The SNP want to be inside


the single market. I think this would completely open up, reshape


and change any negotiations over Brexit if that happened. Correct me


if I'm wrong. In the 48 billion spending plans and revenue plans


there was no mention of a Brexit fee. Mind you the Conservatives


haven't to theed that up either. Both sides have a large black hole,


if they agree a large sum. The black hole in a sense sums up what both


parties were trying to do through the election in terms of their


Brexit plans. Partly because they're not quite sure. And also, because


they were reluctant to go into any detail that would cause problems


later on. It's not just about conaluted complexities of Brussels.


It's about huge decisions that will affect the quality of people's lives


here. What do we do about immigration is absolutely tied to


bri. ? What happens with the economy, that's tied to Brexit.


Where Labour have put forward a different approach, they would


concentrate on workers' rights - We have a declaration from the Vale of


Clwyd. I, being the acting returning


officer at the election of a member of Parliament for the Vale of Clwyd


constituency, here by give notice that the number of votes recorded


for each candidate - This was a held seat with a majority of only 237.


And Labour chasing them hard here. - Seems an increase in the number of


people voting. Plaid Cymru, the party of Wales,


1,551. I can't translate from the Welsh,


but I know what he's saying, which is that Chris Ruane has taken this


for Labour. He had it before, up until 2015 and he's won it back for


Labour from the Conservatives. Let's see the change in the vote here. 50%


Labour, 44% for the Conservatives. The change since last time, up 12


and up 5% for the Conservatives. A swing from Conservative to Labour in


this Welsh seat of 3. 5%. Remember in the context of Wales, when we're


thinking about it, where the Tories expected to make gains, Wales voted


to Leave. It's a Brexit part of the UK. What John Curtis analysis tells


us at this point, in seats where Leave won less than 55%, there's


been a swing of 4% to Labour. Where you look at more strongly Leave


seats, where Leave won over 60%, votes are going the other way, the


swing is smaller. But going towards the Tories. Even, it seems, it's


more complicated than just saying here's a Leave area, they're going


one area. Here's Remain, they're going another way. There are patchy


patterns developing. I want to see if we can recover what Tom Watson


said, when he held his seat. It froze suddenly mid-sentence. I think


we can go back to it now. Can we? I hope we'll see more Labour victories


tonight and more Labour supporters celebrating in the hours to come.


The next few hours may be the next few days looks very uncertain. But


thing can be sure, Theresa May's authority has been undermind by this


election. She is a damaging Prime Minister, whose reputation may never


recover. People in this country were crying out for something more than


what the Tories have given us for the last seven years. They want


something to hope for. They've responded to a positive campaign. We


don't yet know how this election will turn out. But we know that


people vote for hope. Thank you. There was Tom Watson saying that


what we do know from this is Theresa May's authority is undermined. She's


a damaged Prime Minister. And she'll never recover. It's extraordinary


what this does to the internal dynamics of the Labour Party. The


Labour Party has always been a coalition of people that felt had


very different beliefs. But for much of the past two decades, the


moderates have been in the ascendency. Jeremy Corbyn comes


along and lots of people felt tonight might be a bad moment for


the moderates. The political editor of BuzzFeed UK has tweeted, one of


the strange ironies tonight have how many vocal anti-Corbyn Labour MPs in


marginals could find their seats saved by Corbyn. It's remarkable and


someone part of the shift of power in the Labour Party, Owen Jones. He


said: "Here's to Britain's young. You were ridiculed. Patronised.


Demonised even. You may have changed history, whatever happens. There is


a " strong sense tonight coming through online, on my phone, that


young people feel that they have swung the balance of power forever


within the Labour Party. We can't forget what this means for the


Tories. The editor of Channel 4 news tweeted: A mischievious thing for


him to say. The odds on Boris Johnson being the next Tory leader


have fallen dramatically over the evening. One set of bookies has his


odds from 66-1 to 5-1. Lots of speculation about where the Tory


Party is going. Justine Greening in Putney has held onto her seat. She's


the Education Secretary. This is what I want to draw your eye


towards, the very close share of the vote between Conservatives and


Labour. She sat on a 10,000 jurored in this seat. She's now sitting on


1500. Let me show you in terms of the swing, it's a 10% swing from the


Conservatives tortds Labour. Now -- towards Labour. In a safe seat like


this, a Government minister, it might have been a tough call for


Labour to take this. They will look at other seats in London, the closer


ones and think they have got a chance, if this is a London-wide


phenomenon that they're seeing. One other one, Clwyd south. You had the


Vale of Clwyd. Clwyd Southridge thatly showed up in some of our


forecasts as a take for the Conservatives. Labour has held onto


it. A swing from Conservatives to


Labour. A 2.4% swing. It seems as though Labour is establishing a


ground base in Wales and starting to make these quite impressive inroads


in London even if they are not actually changing the colour of the


seats yet. Tim Farron was caught a moment ago leaving his house to two


to his count at Westmoreland and Lonsdale and was questioned as he


came out of the house. Let's hear. REPORTER: How do you think it will


go tonight? Too early to say. Are you worried about Nick Clegg's seat?


All of that we don't know, looking forward to the rest of the evening.


All the best, take care. A fairly non-committal comment.


Although we have been hearing his own seat is in jeopardy, in


Westmoreland, that he's not having an easy time of it and may lose out.


I've heard that Labour are expected to hold Hartlepool where the Tories


put on a very strong challenge, part of Theresa May trying to push again


into the north-east. Labour expect to take Hendon, again another London


seat. They also expect to take Stockton South, a Tory seat, that


would be if it comes true, taking another seat from yet another


Government minister. I do think it's worth saying though that there are


parts of the country where we've hardly heard anything from, the east


of England, many of the Midlands marginals. We saw Tom Watson there.


There are big, big chunks of the country where we are yet to get any


intel. People are saying Labour could be the largest party, and that


it's astonishing, but it's early days. It may not feel like it but


the night is still young apparently. No election is complete without the


swingometer and we haven't seen it yet so where is it? ! Jeremy. Come


through the face of Big Ben here into the Elizabeth Tower with the


smashing of glass. I got a a tweet from someone saying, where is the


swingometer. It's difficult because we are looking at swing across the


whole country, we need a few results to come in. We think we can show you


what the swing would be now with 50 results being in. This is


Conservative Labour. Let us have a look. Conservative Labour, crucial


thing about the swingometer is if nobody changes sides between one


side and the other, the swing is at 0% and no swings change hands. This


is all about people moving between the parties. So we now ask the


swingometer what the swing is and in which direction. Here we go. Let us


see. Fairly modest, a swing against the Conservatives to Labour about


what looks like just under 1%. All of the dots are constituencies at


both sides and the closer you are to the 0, the more marginal your seat


is. As the axe ill moves, it moves across the dots and the seats change


colour. You can see the effect of the swing, if it were to be applied


across all seats in the UK, not just those we have had so far, would be


nine seats going red from the Conservatives. Nine seats to Labour


from the Conservatives. So it's a relatively modest swing but it's


interesting in the context of an election which was initially called


with the idea that the Conservatives were going to have some kind of


stupendous advance. Labour are in fact more than holding them off.


What's happened? You can see both the Conservatives and Labour are up.


Labour up 8% and the Conservatives up 7%. That is the result so far.


The interesting thing is this - the figure for Ukip's crashed, down 12%.


People who were voting Ukip in large numbers two years ago have been


dislodged. The conventional wisdom, as we approach this election, is


that they would all go into the blue block here. They haven't done. What


seems to have happened is that they have been dispersed rather evenly


and quite a lot of former Ukip voters have actually gone to Labour


which explained why both the columns have come up. So the first thought


of the election that Ukip were going to go down dramatically is correct.


The second thought that they would go automatically to the


Conservatives underplayed the complexities of a night like


tonight. From the figures we have, we have the greens down a touch and


the Lib Dems down a touch as well. So part of the explanation is this


really big drop. Ukip voters dislodged and going, many of them,


interestingly to Labour which has given the Conservatives so many


problems. We'll be looking at the swingometer, this is the national


one, and we'll be able to look at regions later and see the


differences around the country. Thank you very much. Now we are


going to hear if the Ear piece fits his ear all right which I think is


being put in, Tom Watson. Sorry, rather undignified to have people


fiddling can your ear but can you hear me all right? I can hear you


now, David thank you. We are about to get another result. Let me catch


up with you before we get that result in. You were one of those


people who thought that the... If I move out of the camera, we'll get


the result. That was a great shame. Let's get the result then. He has


moved out of the way. Green Party, 323. Liberal Democrat,


333. The Conservative Party candidate, 40,329. This is a safe


Labour seat. So you have got news from Alastair Campbell. We'll go


back to Tom Watson who unfortunately was taken from us. First he froze


and the second time he was very helpfully moving aside so we could


see the result. It was a safe Labour seat. He was being affable and


helpful but a question for him, does he agree with Alastair Campbell


who's just told somebody else, as it were that, he doesn't think that


Brexit can now go ahead on the original timetable that, Brexit has


to be delayed? Ah, Tom! Oh, there he was, here today gone tomorrow. Maybe


he's trying to work out what he's going to say after he thought that


Jeremy Corbyn should resign. Let's be fair to him. There he is. Tom,


thank you very much for coming back. Let me just start, we heard briefly


what you said about Theresa May being finished, I wonder whether


it's not you that's finished because you were the person who said that


Jeremy Corbyn was not the right person to lead. You were the person


who, like 80% of the MPs in the House of Commons didn't want him,


thought the party was being taken over by the radicals. Now it seems


they are doing rather well on that basis? Well, I think it would be


very foolish for anyone to want to stand down in the Labour Party


tonight after this result and it seems to me that the people who've


lost the most are the media trying to distort Jeremy's message and he's


cut through that, the tabloid press demonised him all week and these are


early sets of results but it does seem very promising for Labour.


It's... Sorry. Go on. It does seem to me, I've been to about 50


defensive marginal constituencies in this campaign and in every one


people were saying, this is an unnecessary election, Theresa May


told us that there didn't need to be a general election because it's not


in the national interest, then she got a little rise in the polls and


then decided to act in the party interest. It seems to me that she's


going to profoundly regret that political opportunism by the end of


tonight. What do you make of it if - we don't know the final result of


course but Labour's done better than people thought it would and the


opinion polls thought it would - what do you make of Labour's success


under Jeremy Corbyn's leadership which you have been critical of?


Well, he's opened the campaign up and he's won some arguments. This


was supposed to be a narrowly focussed election and I don't think


I've ever known an election where there were so many issues being


discussed. The electorate took the issues from politicians and decided


they wanted their own election. The Health Service, defence, security,


terror, transport, infrastructure, quality of life, housing, future for


young people, security for pensioners, these are all issues in


this campaign in a way that we were told this was going to be a


referendum on leadership and Brexit alone. It seems to me that, be


careful what you wish for when you have unnecessary and uncalled for


general elections. Is Jeremy Corbyn now safe as leader of the Labour


Party and, will he have the support of those MPs who wanted to get rid


of him? Well, I think he was safe whatever the result would have been.


He's stood for two elections and this was an election that was


brought upon us early. There were plenty of journalists who were


talking about a potential leadership challenge to Jeremy Corbyn in the


last seven days, I've not heard any MPs saying that, but it seems to me


the shoe is on the other foot now, I can see Boris Johnson sharpening the


knives for Theresa May after this result. But let us see what the


final results are by the end of the nights. You are putting your, I


won't use the word knife, but the original objection and 80% of those


who objected are going to go silent and come behind Jeremy Corbyn's and


John McDonnell's plan force the economy, are they? I think if we


come out of this election with an increased vote, it shows that you


can argue that naff Liverpool resources can be socially earned --


natural resources can be socially earned, there can be a greater role


for the state in providing Public Services. You can argue that you


need to give people the best start in life and that you can be holding


Government. That's what our manifesto said. I was very proud of


the manifesto. Thank you very much inteed for joining us.


Briefly, I'm hearing from Labour sources they exfoeblingt take Leeds


North West and Finchley and Golders Green, they also expect to take


Shipley and may already have done from the Conservatives, the MP


Philip Davies. Briefly, let us be completely clear, privately there


were plenty of Labour candidates discussing not how they would get


rid of Jeremy Corbyn but how they would hope to try to move to do that


in the next couple of months or so. That was something being discussed.


Of course these results transform that situation. That was something


that was on their agenda. More results Emily? This is an absolutely


staggering result in Angus in Scotland which really wasn't on


anyone's watch list. It was on the Tory target at 126 but the


Conservatives have taken it from the SNP, Kirstene Hair takes that.


Dramatic fall from the SNP. Might be time to start asking questions about


tactical voting amongst the Unionist Parties. This was a seat, one of six


seats, that the SNP held before 2015 so it wasn't a recent gain. That


swing will be one of the most dramatic, I predict, of the night.


16% from the SNP to the Conservatives. The drama each time


seems to have been in Scotland so we are going to keep a watch on that.


Another result to bring you in the North East of England, Hartlepool, a


Labour hold on 53% share of the vote despite a good fight from Carl


Jackson for the Conservatives on 34% but it's that Ukip vote that you


really want to look out for here. Massively down 17%. Philip broughton


stood for the leadership alongside Paul Nuttall, didn't win of course


and now sees his share of that vote massively falling here. So the swing


is actually, as you can see, towards Labour, quite a modest one, 1.8.


Questions now surfacing from all the north-east seats about maybe the


point of the Ukip vote at all going forward. One more to show you.


Warwickshire North. This is a Conservative hold and this is jury


that was on the Labour target list, number 24, showing not only a


Conservative hold but a swing towards the Conservatives. So they


have strengthened their hold on this one, a majority of 8,500. This


incredibly mixed picture emerging now that they seem to be doing well


in parts of England, extraordinarily well in those two results we have


had in in Scotland and yet not so well in Wales.


We are joined by Nigel Farage who, after all, led one of the leaders of


the Brexit campaign. Mr Farage, thank you for joining us, you are


not standing as an MP of course, but what did you make of Paul Nuttall's


leadership of Ukip, Ukip doesn't seem to have been doing very well? I


thought he was strong and robust but I don't think he had time to


establish himself with the voters who still don't quite know who he


is. So no, I have no criticisms of Paul, although the party itself, the


people around him I think organisationally, pretty weak. What


is going to happen to Brexit now? Theresa May called this election in


order to pursue the kind of Brexit you wanted and it doesn't look as


though she'll get the majority she


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