Part One Election 2017

Good evening and welcome to the BBC Election Centre. Tonight is the

third time in just over two years that we have come here to discover

the result of a major UK-wide poll. In 2015, David Cameron's election

victory led of course to the 2016 referendum he promised, resulting in

the vote for Brexit and Cameron's resignation, then this election

called by Theresa May in her words to guarantee stability and certainty

for the years ahead. A three-act drama. First indications of whether

she's got what she wanted or whether Jeremy Corbyn's a dashed her hopes

will come with the exit poll at 10. Who gets to Number Ten? To Jeremy

Vine's finishing line. Welcome to our virtual Downing Street where we

watched in 2015 as Conservative constituencies paved a path to

Number Ten and Labour were left a long way behind. What will happen

tonight? Will the Conservatives get the 326 seats they need to win

outright? Or will Labour close the gap? Earlier today the party leaders

were filmed casting their votes, just as nearly 47 million of us had

the right to do. And the first actual result will help confirm or

cast doubt on this exit poll. In the race to be first to deliver, it's

Newcastle and Sunderland going head-to-head and sew Fay ray worth

is in Sunderland. These are some of the 80 sixth formers poised to grab

the ballot boxes. Sunderland South has been the first to declare since

1992. This year they have competition. Newcastle is after

their crown. Can they do it? We should know in about 45 minutes'

time. Our team here in the election p Election Centre will be gathering

the results, analysing the contests and updating our predictions. Emily

mately is able to look at each of the 650 individual constituencies

and delve into their deep political make-up. Never before have we gone

into an election with such diverse predictions. This is where we

discover what the results will be. My giant touch screen has all the

data. In a moment I should be able to predict which seats could be

changing hands. And Mishaal Hussain will be joined by politicians and

commentators to assess why what happened happened and what the

likely conwhenses are. I'm here throughout the night getting

thoughts, views and verdicts on what the message delivered by the people

mean force the parties, policies and some political careers. With me, our

Political Correspondent Laura Kuenssberg talking about the exit

poll with a few moments to go. Just over 20 seconds to go until Big Ben

strikes ten, then I'll be able to reveal the results of the BBC, ITV

and Sky joint poll. Over 30,000 people, 144 polling stations were

questioned today and by the magic, we are able to predict what we think

has happened tonight. And what we are saying is the

Conservatives are the largest party. Note, they don't have an overall

majority at this stage. 314 for the Conservatives, that's down 17. 266

for Labour, that's Up 34. The SNP, the Scottish National Party, 34,

down 22, treat that figure with a bit of caution for technical reasons

about the exit poll which I don't need to explain right now. The Lib

Dems on 14, up six. Plaid Cymru stays on three, the Greens on one,

none for Ukip and the others 18. Well, the Prime Minister called this

election because she wanted, as she put it, certainty and stability.

This doesn't seem, at this stage, to look like certainty and stability.

It could still be that the Conservatives at the end of the day

have an overall majority. They need another 12 seats to get that. 326,

as Jeremy said a moment ago. That's just the exit poll. The reality, as

Sophie was saying, we get the first result in 45 minutes. That is how

things look at this stage of the evening. Laura, what do you make of

it? If these numbers are correct, Theresa May's played a high-risk

political game and she appears to have possibly lost her gamble. She

only called this election to give herself her own mandate and some

breathing space During the bumpy ride of Brexit. A few months ago at

the start of the campaign, she seemed very unasellable. An

insurgent Labour Party under Jeremy Corbyn may well have dashed the

Conservative hopes. This exit poll result is not what either main party

have been predicting, privately this would be another political surprise

with both the British public again defying the expectations of the two

largest political parties. The Tories do still look like they'll be

the largest party. They may yet see themselves with a majority. But

Theresa May's promise throughout this campaign was to offer strong

and stable leadership. That was her catch phrase. She may well end the

night diminished with a situation eshe even more uncertain -- even

more uncertain. The real results as nay come in through the night will

actually dictate what happens next. Maybe at this stage given that we

are in this territory of waiting to see whether our exit poll is

correct, let's just assume for a moment it is and look at what the

new House of Commons would be like, Jeremy, can we do that?

Yes, this does feel quite sensational. The key figure is 326,

just over half the MPs in the House of Commons gives you a majority,

David Cameron got just there in the last election and the exit poll has

the Conservatives falling short. So down 17 seats, 314. They can't with

their MPs outvote the other MPs in the House of Commons. That is what

an overall majority means. As has been said, it would take a bit of

error to push the Conservatives over the line. It might happen. It will

be a fascinating night. The other parties - Labour first of all 266 up

for man 30 seats. The SNP, going down to 34. There are a lot of 50-50

calls so that figure may change. The Lib Dems have added six seats we

think to their tally, 14 they would have, so that is an improvement for

them. The same for Plaid Cymru, three as last time, the Greens

having one and the others, the Northern Ireland parties in 18.

18 others. So let us go back to the Government benches and stress that

this gap here is very small. It's possible that it closes during the

night, but at the moment, under our exit poll, the Conservative party

have lost their overall majority and will be short by 12 votes. 12 MPs

short of an outright majority in the House of Commons. David.

Thank you very much, Jeremy. I'm joined by two senior politicians

from the two main parties. John McDonnell, Shadow Chancellor for

Labour and Michael Fallon, the Defence Secretary. Mr Fallon, if

this is right, it was a terrible error to call this election in the

first place, wasn't it? Let us see some actual results to see if it's

borne out. This is a projection, not a result. The exit polls have been

wrong in the past, I think in 2015 they underestimated our vote, I

think in a couple of elections before that, they overestimated our

votes. So we need to see some actual results before we can interpret this

one way or the other. Put it like this, if this were to be close to

the result, in other words that you maybe just had a majority, you

certainly wouldn't have what you were all looking for, which was a

big, safe majority in the House of Commons - people were talking about

a majority of 30, 40, 50, a few weeks ago? We didn't. I never

believed the original poll as showing us 20 polls ahead. In an

election, you get a tightening between the major parties, that was

clearly happening this time. As I say, it's very early to start on the

basis of what is a projection before we've had a single actual result.

Let us wait and see the seats coming through. John McDonnell what about

you, you are encouraged by the prediction of 34. If that happens,

you and Jeremy Corbyn remain in charge of the Labour Party

presumably? I'm going to agree with Michael for the first time possibly

ever. There you are. We have to have scepticism about all polls at the

moment. We've got it wrong in the past in terms of polling so I'm

agreeing, let us see some results. So what do you have to say about the

election campaign from your point of view? Well, we tried to have an

extremely positive campaign, we modelled it around Jeremy's

character. If you remember when he stood for the leadership, his slogan

at the time was honest politics, straight talking, that's what we

have tried to do. A positive campaign throughout. If it's

reflected in this sort of level of support, it changes the nature of

political discourse to a large extent in our country. So people

have got fed up of the yaboo politics and the nasty tactics that

have gone on. A positive campaign, if it comes out like this, I think

it will improve politics in this country overall. What did you think

about their campaign? Very nasty. At times it dragged us into the but

thor and I didn't like that. But let us put that to one side. If the

result is anywhere near like this, it means positive politics has

actually succeeded. Nasty campaign? I don't agree with that. Our focus

was on... What were you thinking of? Our campaign focus was on

leadership, getting the Brexit negotiations right. It was on

setting out some of the big social and economic challenges that faced

this country which frankly, leaving aside the personal stuff, Labour

ducked and they pretended there was a magic money tree and never really

answered... Michael... Let us not refight the campaign. You have

Brexit talks starting in 11 days' time, serious talks about the future

of this country. It was hardly discussed in the campaign. There was

hardly a stall laid out on Brexit. Now if this is right, Theresa May

hasn't got the sort of massive support from the country she was

hoping to get to allow her to do whatever it is she wanted to do, she

never told us? We did bring the campaign back to Brexit. You never

said what kind of Brexit you were going to have? We set out the 12

negotiating objectives, set out that we want a deep and special

partnership with Europe based on economic corporation, being careful

about the trade while looking for new markets. We never really got

into that. Also on security cooperation. Let's be honest about

this... We never got into the debate on Brexit that we should have had

but also... Is that your fault as much as his? We genuinely did have a

policy. That is the sort of politics people are rejecting - you have got

to be straightforward and honest with people and you shouldn't parody

other party's political positions. People reject that now. What was

interesting was that Theresa May went with one question about Brexit

to the electorate and that was going to be the central question of the

whole election and people said, there are other issues we want to

discuss. OK. I remember the 1974 general election if you remember

when the government then Ted Heath went to the country and said who

rules Britain, it was the miners' strike at the time and they said,

it's not about that, it's about living standards and Public Services

and the future of the country. Neither main party got into the

details on Brexit. What was called the progressive coalition, it would

tot up to 318 seats as opposed to 314 of the Tories. They might be

able to rely on the DUP in Northern Ireland but we could be in a

position with the combined forces being equal to the Conservatives.

That could make for some very interesting days ahead. . Let us

remind ourselves of where the exit poll is. We have projected it on the

front of New Broadcasting House and I hope we can show you that. There

we are. 2017 election, Conservatives the largest party, note not

Conservatives at this stage on the exit poll with a majority. Labour on

266. That is up 34. The SNP 34, down 22 from disillusion. The other

parties there. Ukip 0. Plaid Cymru three. 17 short of an overall

majority, the Conservatives. Now to Sunderland. The first result we get

from you Sophie will give us a clue whether these gentlemen are feeling

more cheerful or less. It certainly will. The ballot boxes are being run

in. The first was in here at 10. 03. We have a lot of sixth form student,

80 of them, bringing them in and giving them to the counters.

Sunderland south has been the fastest to declare, their record is

45 minutes, they did it in 48 minutes, but they have Newcastle

snapping on their heels so we'll have to wait and see who gets there

first tonight. It's a really well oiled machine, they have lighter

ballot papers, only folding them in half. They have even checked out the

routes to get to this sports centre to make sure the vans take the

fastest routes possible. You can see how hard they are all working there.

Just to make sure that they do get in here and they retain their crown.

Thank you very much. Well, let's go and join Andrew Marr. He's at

Maidenhead, where Theresa May's waiting for her count. Good evening,

you've heard the exit poll down there. What's the reaction been?

Well, the reaction from senior Conservatives and I've talked to a

few, is they flatly don't believe it. They say that's not the reaction

they've got up and down the country. They've been talking to candidates.

It cannot be true. One of the reasons they're saying that is that

it would be a huge disaster for the Conservative Party if it was

accurate. If you look at the numbers, this whole election was

about ensuring that Theresa May had the Leeway to do a proper deal on

Brexit afterwards. She needed a bigger majority to do that. She

hasn't got that it appears. She can bring in a small platoon of

Democratic Unionists from Ireland to help her. She can't do what David

Cameron did, in similar circumstances, when he brought in

the Liberal Democrats. Because of course, on the great issue of the

day, Brexit, the two sides are on completely opposite opinions. She's

in real, real trouble. At the moment, we don't believe it is the

best they can do. Let's join the other party leader,

Nick Robinson is in Islington North, Jeremy Corbyn's seat, in the dark.

Good evening, Nick. Have you had a reaction to this exit poll? Jeremy

Corbyn arrived here minutes before the exit poll. He looked pretty

cheerful as did his spin doctor, chief advisor. Everybody will be

extremely cautious about this exit poll because it comes as such a

surprise. In line with some of those polls that showed a 1%, 2% Tory

lead. It will give enormous power to Jeremy Corbyn, not just within

Parliament, but within his party too. There were few people around Mr

Corbyn who believed he would win this election. Two years ago, they

never believed he would fight this election. They believe they have

shifted British politics and shift today for good. They believe that --

shifted it for good. They believe they have put ideas that were in the

extreme or on the margins, ideas of investment in the NHS and the rest,

back firmly in the centre of British politics. He will be strengthened.

What he didn't anticipate is that he might have a powerful role to play

in the future of this country, when it comes to Brexit. If the exit poll

is right, if Theresa May effectively has to do deals in order to get her

way, that gives Labour potentially enormous power in terms of the deals

they are willing to do and whether they will work with Tory rebels and

others when it comes to those crucial votes on Brexit in 2018/19.

Thank you very much Nick. We live at this stage in the evening on rumours

from places. We have just heard a rumour, I put it no stronger than

that, that the Tories may be in trouble in Hastings. It's a tight

race there. Amber Rudd, the Home Secretary, who stood in for Theresa

May in that debate and is thought to have done a good job, we're told

that in Hastings she may be in difficulty. Let's look at some other

seats with Emily. Yes, it's impossible to predict at this stage

anything too closely. It is impossible to stress too much how

delicately we are treading given that the exit poll, as things stand,

is untested. We have not had a single result in. But if it is on

track, these are some of the seats Tory held at the moment that have a

90% chance of turning red, being taken by Labour tonight. Some of

them are incredibly tight marginals, Croydon central, Derby north. Some

of them are higher up the target list, Bedford, around 11 or 12 on

that target list. Let me take you into some. I will show you what we

are able to do now. This is Croydon central. The Housing Minister there,

the current administration, the Government. You can see what is

being projected on the forecast, a likely Labour gain. You can see the

Leave vote here split pretty evenly. We don't know if that will come into

play. Some of the others that we will show you, Bolton west, Theresa

May launched her campaign in this neck of the woods, not this exact

seat. Very tightly fought here. They need 0. 8% swing to take it from the

Conservatives. The sort of figures that the forecast comes up with

suggest Labour would be on a nine-point lead in pretty much all

of these seeds. That's why we're -- seats, that's why they have a good

chance of taking them. This would go red as well. Bedford, for example,

13 on the Labour target list. It looks pretty tight at the moment.

Tony Blair took it three times for Labour here. It's not very often

you'll hear Jeremy Corbyn and Tony Blair in the same sentence, but we

could be looking at some interesting changes of seats. That's all we're

going to say here. Bedford there projected to be at least ten points

between Labour and the Conservatives. One more, brighton

next to the Green seat at the moment. Simon Kirby on this forecast

could be out for the Conservatives. We are projecting here a Labour gain

with a lead of another 10%. All these, we tread carefully. When we

get the first result, we will know whether the exit poll is on track.

We are on eggshells at the moment. If you've just joined us, we're not

saying that the Conservatives have an overall majority. We're simply

saying they're the largest party and a lot of the discussion that we've

started having, if the exit poll is true, what are the implications of

that. And no-one better perhaps than some of the senior politicians

involved in this sort of thing before, Michelle has one with her.

With me up here is Ming Campbell, former leader of the Liberal

Democrats. Good evening. Good evening. Your reaction to the exit

poll? Well, David Dimbleby took the word eggshells right out of my

mouth. With the history of these polls in the past, it's very

dangerous to seek to draw conclusions, which are totally

unchallengeable. One thing is certain, that Mrs May's effort to

get a large majority in order to enhance her ability to drive a hard

deal with the European Union has simply exploded. If these results

are - If these results. The exit poll shows your party adding seats

in the House of Commons going up to 14 Liberal Democrat MPs. Could you

imagine the Liberal Democrats being part of some sort prove grossive

alliance in the Commons? Well, Tim Farron made it very clear, he said

no pact, no deal, no coalition. We've had our fingers burned by

coalition. I don't need to tell you that. So I find it very, very

difficult to see how Tim Farron would be able to go back on what

he's previously said and to persuade the membership of the Liberal

Democrats that a coalition was a good idea from our point of view. A

progressive alliance would be rather something different. Progressive

alliance implies, though, a commitment to support the Government

which happens to be in power. The notion of a progressive alliance is

that it would supplant the Conservatives. On the issue of

Brexit, the Liberal Democrat position is very clear, as compared

to Jeremy Corbyn's position, which frankly, almost defies definition. I

can't possibly see an arrangement of the kind between Labour and the

Liberal Democrats which would in any way overcome that quite significant

difference of opinion. As far as Tim Farron is concerned, however

difficult it might be to put to the mebds and with the -- members and

with the memories of the to 10-2015 -- 2010-2015 experience,

nevertheless, it campaign was about wanting to fight a hard Brexit.

Should Tim Farron consider some kind of arrangement with the

Conservatives? Well, that's equally impossible. Mrs May made it clear

before and after calling the election, she said no deal is better

than a poor deal. She's willing to accept the hardest possible Brexit.

How could Tim Farron possibly alie himself with that nor could he take

the party with him, nor the over 100,000 people - doubled our

membership since 2010 - Even having involvement in the negotiations? We

know about coalitions. We know about the extent that it's very difficult

indeed. After the last coalition, the major party gets the credit for

everything done and the junior party takes the blame for the things that

people don't like. Therefore, I've - it will be down to him. He'll have

to make his own decision. I should be astonished if he would

countenance any kind of coalition either with Labour or the

Conservatives. What he can say is we will deal with these, everybody

issue on a vote by vote basis. We will not have, if you like,

opposition for opposition's take. But we will consider everything on

its merits. That is something he can sell to his own party. It's

something which will preserve his and indeed the party's integrity.

Lord Campbell, thank you. There are fascinating scenes up in

Sunderland, further north than London, there's still a bit of

daylight, as the students, look at them with these boxes, bringing the

ballot boxes to the central count and white gloved, handing them

carefully. All trained to do this, both Sunderland and Newcastle have

been competing and indeed the man who organised Sunderland last time

round has been giving advice to Slough as well in Buckinghamshire.

They wanted to get their result in as fast as possible. The boxes have

to be opened. There is a slight problem here, this time round, which

is that if people go who have postal ballots and put them in these boxes,

they then have to be individually verified. That takes a bit of time.

But they're saying now, I think Newcastle says they'll have theirs

by 11pm. Sunderland, I hope, a bit before. Let's speak to our reporter

down there. Hello, can you hear us in Newcastle?

David, hello, yes. It's looking a great race this. Everyone was

gasping when you think Sunderland might be a few minutes before

Newcastle. That's definitely not what they want to hear here tonight.

They are clock watching here. Frantic activity behind me. The

first ballot box came in about 10. 07. 128 in total are going to be

making their way through to the arena. We think we've got 50 of

those boxes in so far. What Newcastle are hoping to do is get a

declaration result announced here by as early as roughly, maybe, 10.

45pm. If they do that, they will become the first to declare a result

on general election night and crucially, they want to beat

Sunderland. They have a very healthy rivalry that's been going on for

many elections in the past. They keep reminding us here tonight that

they beat Sunderland last year in the EU referendum result. I was here

that night. Tonight is no exception when it comes down to the precise

process of the boxes coming in to the hall here and the counting

getting under way. If they are on track, and they're looking pretty

optimistic, maybe before 11pm and before Sunderland.

Thank you very much. Of course, this is, I mean it's great to have the

race. But it's important too, because those first results will

give us a clue through our psephologist really, a clue whether

the exit poll is accurate or not. We'll be hearing from them. I'm

joined by Stuart Hosie, the former MP for Dundee east, is standing for

Dundee east. Thank you for joining us. What do you make of this exit

poll, which looks, if it's right, rather damaging for the SNP, down 22

is what the exit poll is saying. Well, first of all, it is only an

exit poll. So all of the usual caveats and pinches of salt should

apply. The main story from it, if it's accurate is that Theresa May

has given up a majority and we now have again, if the numbers are

correct, 314 Tories, versus 314 others and 22 from the Northern

Irish parties. That's an extraordinary thing. For Theresa May

to call this election, for narrow party advantage, and then if these

numbers are correct, to blow it incredibly. If she has blown it, in

the sense that she doesn't have an overall majority, would you allow

her to go through with the Queen's speech in the House of Commons, is

the SNP, assuming you have at least a substantial wedge in the new

House? Well, again, if this poll is correct, it would still point to the

SNP winning the election in Scotland, which is what we set out

to achieve. I don't recall us ever voting for significant Tory policy

in the past. It would be hard to see in the current climate with an

austerity cuts, hard Brexit party that we'd want to support them in

any way in this future Parliament. We've heard well, let me put it like

this, the reason that we were, I said at the beginning, we were

cautious about SNP on 34, down 22, is we're told that a lot of these

are very tight, the polling is suggesting 50/50 so you don't quite

know which way to call them. Two people in particular, Angus

Robertson, your leader in Westminster, and Alex Salmond, the

former leader of the SNP are both said to be under threat if this exit

poll is correct. Have you got any information from them about how they

think they've done? No, I don't have any specific information from those

seats at all. But common sense would tell us that Alex Salmond, a

fantastic Parliamentary former like Angus Robertson with their track

records in the constituencies would have an edge over any insurgent Tory

campaign. As I say, it will take some hours before this all comes out

in the wash. Thank you very much. When it comes out in the wash,

perhaps you'll be very kind and come back in the light of reality rather

than speculation tell us what your position is. Indeed, I'll be

delighted to, as long as it's stopped raining by then.

A last word from you two about this then. You heard Ming Campbell

talking about what would happen and everybody's dumping on the Tories at

the moment for having called this election in the first place. I mean

dumping on you, saying it was a misjudgment. I think this was the

right thing to do to have a clear and strong mandate as we go into the

Brexit negotiations. Theresa May didn't have that mandate last year,

when she took over from David Cameron. It was clear that other

opposition parties were in the business of frustrating a successful

Brexit. It was the right thing to do to ask the British people for a

mandate. We don't know yet know, with not a single result in, we

don't yet know what the result is. It was the right thing to, do but if

it goes wrong, you will say it was the wrong thing to do. We haven't

got a result yet. You can't say it was the right thing to do, if it

turns out wrong. You'll be blaming Theresa May for having called. It I

think it was right to ask the British people for their support for

a strong mandate to negotiate this very complex Brexit. That was the

right thing to do. Because she inherited from David Cameron a

previous manifesto which was designed before the Brexit

referendum. Your defence Shadow Foreign

Secretary, Emily Thornberry, she's just said she thinks that Theresa

May on the basis of this exit poll should resign. Would that be a

call... Look, it's an... Don't say again we don't know the exit poll

result. I'm so cautious on these occasions. Assume it's right? If it

is right, I think her position is becoming increasingly untenable and

I'll tell you why and, Michael, you need to listen to what the people

were saying - if Theresa May promises on seven different

occasions she wouldn't go for a snap general election and she went for it

on the basis that she wanted to secure a mandate she already had,

people saw through that. They saw this as an election which was for

party advantage rather than the interests of the country. It looks

as though they have rejected her as a result of that. Well, she didn't

have a mandate. Oh, please, we voted for Article 50. We just voted for

it. She did not have a mandate. People argue she should have called

a general election earlier. People have rejected this, they thought

she's putting party advantage above that of the country when what we

need to do is address the real issue about the economy, Public Services

and... You have said that over the last six or seven weeks. Laura, what

is your thought on this? Scepticism from both parties. One senior Labour

figure said to me in text, this doesn't seem believable from where

they sit, a Conservative said it feels wrong. This is an extremely

extensive exit poll and Theresa May, having looked unassailable at the

start of this campaign, had a very bumpy time. Whether that was over a

social care issue, the manifesto promise she was forced to tweak and

change or over the issue of police cuts that became a huge pressure for

her in the closing weeks of the campaign. We heard from voters on

the doorstep around the UK, some people were perhaps, not resentful,

but a bit peeved about having another election. Until April 18th

you were also sitting there saying it was not the right thing to have

an election, you were saying it would be the wrong thing and people

around the country saw that. They were sceptical about Theresa May

going to the country. I think they understood the central argument that

there were other parties determined to frustrate the Brexit process to

vote against it. We heard the Liberal Democrats were going to have

a campaign for a second referendum using their peers from the House of

Lords. But surely it will end up being seen to be a huge political

mistake, to have called an election that she didn't need to do. Even if

the result is anywhere near this, it's a catastrophic error and people

have seen through it. We haven't had a result yet. Exactly. Let us wait

until we have had a result. The exit poll... If even if it's near this.

You are getting carried away now. Not at all, I'm very sceptical. The

exit poll may have egg on its face, in which case the BBC, ITV and Sky

will have egg on its face, I'm glad to say we are not out here on our

own, for once. Getting your excuses in early! You were getting yours in

early. Let us look at the battleground then, assuming this -

well I'll assume nothing - Jeremy Vine.

Listening to your conversation, we shouldn't assume very much at all.

We had the exit poll. Here is what I am going to show you. Conservative

seats, the most marginal and vulnerable because they were so

tight last time. Gower won by only 27 votes in 2015 by the

Conservatives, Derby North, Croydon Central and so on. Down we go, down

this first page of 32 seats, the Conservatives' most vulnerable

seats. We fit the exit poll into this and let us see what we think

has happened. Labour have made a land grab here. Ghouler staying

Conservative under the poll, Derby North and Croydon central going to

Labour. A lot of damage, Morley and Outwood there. A lot of damage in

the first two columns. As the board goes on, the Conservatives start to

defend themselves better. Look at that. It looks as though that is the

extent of the Labour advance but it's a very patchy prediction this,

because here is the second board. 32 more seats, bigger majorities,

Torbay for example, a 3,000 majority and they go up as we go down the

board. What do we think has happened here? Let us take a look. You can

see some of the Labour gains not in places you might expect. Calder

Valley, Pudsey, Labour gains. Exit poll I stress. Labour gaining here.

Enfield Southgate, you member the Michael Portillo moment in 1997 we

have going back to Labour. On that board, Labour have done some more

damage to the Conservatives and it doesn't stop there. We go to even

better defended Conservatives seats there. These are ones that you

wouldn't have thought have gone to any other party when Theresa May

started the election campaign. Here Labour are reaching into seats where

there may be a 5-6,000 majority. Under the exit poll, we have going

Labour, we'll see what happens when we come to the actual results which

surely won't be too long. Let me change the board, turn it around and

look at targets. So when Mrs May called the election, she's thinking,

we are going to gain some Conservative seats. Have they

managed to make any gains in this extraordinary result where they seem

to have reversed? The most vulnerable seat is Chester, Labour

won with only a 93-point margin. Berwickshire and Roxburgh, very

tight. These are the seats the Conservatives you would think go

into first. Here you can see it's very poor performances, very little

going on. They have taken, according to the exit poll, Berwickshire and

Roxburgh, a marginal Scottish seat and we think Wrexham as well there,

Ian Lucas was the MP there, that's gone Conservative. Better story in

Wales and Scotland for the Conservatives than in England. Let

us go to the second board and keep doing these targets. These are safer

seats but still maybe the Conservatives would have had their

eyes on them at the start of the election campaign before things

started to go wrong. Let us see if they won any seats. The

Conservatives have won seats, but who have they got in common? Wales.

Clacton special case because it was Ukip obviously. Dumfries and

Galloway, a Scottish seat, Aberdeenshire West Scotland and

Newport east, that was Labour, that was Wales. So in England, the gains

for the Conservatives seem to be few and far between. One more board for

you. Here we go. These are seats which would have been hard for the

Conservatives to gain. Anything happening here? Let us see. Very

little. Perth and Perthshire. Nothing in gland. Labour have done

some serious damage to Conservative seats in England and may have offset

it with gains in Wales and Scotland. All from the exit poll. We'll have

to see. Boy oh boy are we going to be hung, drawn and quartered if this

is all wrong which it still might well be. We have to go on with what

we have got from the exit poll and there's reaction already to the exit

poll. I'm joined by two people who'll be sitting here during the

evening. The BBC media editor and our Business Editor. Has there been

reaction? This is a massive shock, obviously huge caveats, lots of

people saying that there are lots of close seats so it's too early to

say, but astonishment across the Twittersphere. Caroline Lucas

saying: Jason Groves, the Political Editor

of the Daily Mail, very supportive of Theresa May recently. It says:

Although it's early, there are some big themes emerging on social media.

One is that this is a disaster for Theresa May. Another is there may

well be another election and a third one that people like Lord Ashcroft

are yew none mauls on is that it's going to be a very long night!

Brenda from Bristol said, "not another bloody election". Yes, in a

Bristolian accent which I'll never get close to emulating. We were here

together on referendum night, so there is a similar feel, of course,

as Amol says, you have to be careful, this is a poll and we

haven't actually seen any real results, but the pound is down about

2% already against the dollar, it's also down against the euro. I think

that's not as much about Jeremy Corbyn could be the Prime Minister,

depending on how things may turn out if this exit poll is correct, but it

is about uncertainty. That word we always use when the markets are

looking at a situation, because the markets, the big challenge for the

UK was Brexit. If we are in a position where neither of the

parties have a solid majority and have to go through tough

negotiations, are in weak positions, there could be another election,

this could have a situation where the Scottish referendum could come

back into play, depending on the negotiations. The markets look at

that and would much prefer a 70 majority for Theresa May or a 70

majority for Jeremy Corbyn, whatever their policies may be, because at

least then they could make a judgment on if trajectory. So you

are saying it's uncertainty not thinking there is going to be

possibly a softer Brexit if Theresa May doesn't have the majority? There

is some argument which I don't have a huge amount of sympathy for, which

is the notion that there could be a softer Brexit if there is either a

Jeremy Corbyn-led Government or a hung Parliament and Theresa May

having to put together a coalition. The reason I say that is because on

the uncertainty of would this Government last for five years or

four years, would it last the whole of the Brexit process, would the

Brexit process be put back to Parliament in any substantive way, I

think those concerns would outweigh any notion that there could be a

slightly better deal with Europe. Yes. Because I think those things

are the uncertainties that will loom much larger. That is the reaction

you are getting with the currencies. We have been here before with

Brexit. The currency plunged to 120, we are well above that. It has

already on that 2% just slightly - we have to wait for the first

marginals to really see. The currency traders are making a

fortune? Some will be on the right side of this bet and some will be on

the wrong side. Making a million here, a million there and a billion

here and a billion there. They are all gamblers. It's more than that,

they are making a judgment on the possible strength of the UK economy

in the future. OK. Like resources, they may be right or wrong. I call

it gambling. Anyway, let's go to Scotland. A reminder of the figures

in Scotland. The exit poll gave the SNP down 22. We are going to need a

new word for caveat soon. We are talking extreme caveat because the

SNP is harder than the other places to read. We know according to the

forecast the SNP are on 34 seats, that means they would lose 12 if the

poll is on target. These are some of those that we have been hearing. A

90% chance of them losing. Let me go into the first one. It comes out on

our forecast as a gain for the Conservatives. Aberdeenshire West,

they call this Aberdeenshire West-life because all the candidates

are under 30, Stuart Donaldson, the current MP here, but the forecasts

are suggesting that, even with that massive majority and the

Conservatives needing a swing, on the forecast they would take it. OK,

that is the first possible gain for the Conservatives, looking quite

likely according to the poll. Perth and North Perthshire, this was the

Conservative target, 88, if you can get your head around that. It would

seem as if the Conservative chances in Scotland may be much better than

in England but of course we haven't had a result in yet. This is what

the forecast here is showing. It's what we call a Tory long shot,

they'd need a 9% swing here. That would put the Conservatives on 50%

share of the vote if the poll is accurate. A couple of others the SNP

would lose, this time not to the Conservatives but the Lib Dems. This

one much more tightly fought, JohnNicolson, a former TV presenter,

under the forecast, he goes out and in comes Jo Swinson, last time she

lost her seat the Lib Dem Business Minister in 2015 and she would take

it back on a pretty decent share of the vote, 43%, a big gap there, much

bigger than swing she would need if we are on track. One more, Edinburgh

West number nine on the Lib Dem targets. You can see how the 2015

share has those two top parties, SNP in first place and Lib Dems in

second. On the forecast, this is often a four-way contest, you could

see the Lib Dems taking 40% share of the vote. Now these are all

tentative. But why I'm showing you is, they are the most likely ones to

change colour tonight. There are a lot more in Scotland that we would

call 50-50. They're on the cusp. We wouldn't go further than that at

this stage but that is why the exit poll is in such a caveated mode at

present. These parties are all pro the union,

don't want another referendum on the union. There you go, that might have

something to do with, it certainly if we're seeing that step backwards

from the SNP. What's interesting, for example, in Aberdeenshire west,

I was looking at the Leave vote as well. Aberdeenshire West, 39%, which

looks like quite a low Leave vote, though to put it in context, it's

quite a high Leave vote for Scotland. Maybe that has given the

Conservatives a bit of a chance here. Some of them in Scotland are

in the 70 to 30 model. Thanks very much Emily. Let's go up to Scotland.

To Edinburgh and join Sarah Smith, our Scotland editor. What do you

make of this poll and you'll be entering the same caveats everybody

else has, but if it's true. Absolutely and the SNP themselves

look a little anxious about this. I wouldn't say they think they're on

target to lose that many seats. They were braced for some losses.

Remember, they had such an amazing result two years ago, where they won

56 out of the 59 seats that are in the Scotland. It seemed inevitable

that they were going to lose some of them. This would be remarkable if

the exit poll is any way correct about that. As you were alouding to

with -- alluding to with Emily, the dynamic in Scotland has been

completely different. The SNP are the incumbents and the Tories as the

insurgents, the ones who thought they could take a few seats off the

SNP. They were optimistic about something between six and ten, maybe

even a dozen seats, they would be very happy with that in Scotland.

The campaign narrative here has been different because it's been all

about independence. Because it was just three months ago that Nicola

Sturgeon said she wanted another referendum on Scottish independence

and the Tories have cast themselves as the one party who say they can

stop another independence referendum, the most staunch

defenders of the United Kingdom, though of course, Labour and the Lib

Dems also say they don't want another Scottish referendum. The

Tories have really taken on that mantle of the union and that's what

they hope could propel them to take a good few seats off the SNP

tonight. Thank you very much indeed. Let's go

to Cardiff and join Sian Lloyd. The Plaid Cymru figure was that it

remains at three. What other things have been going on in Wales, do we

expect any other changes? Well, I'm in Cardiff where three of the four

Cardiff constituencies are counting and not expecting any results from

here for quite some time. Carwyn Jones, the First Minister of Wales,

has just been alongside me here. He's just arrived. He's trying to

get a sense of his reaction to this exit poll. Earlier polls were saying

that perhaps the Conservatives could gain nine seats in Wales. Wales has

traditionally been a Labour strong hold. For the past 100 years. It was

only in 1983 the Conservatives had their high water mark here when they

gained 14 seats at the height of Margaret Thatcher's popularity. But

Theresa May was hoping to make inroads here. She came to Wales

three times during this campaign, four different constituencies. She

went to Wrexham, Clwyd south. She was hoping Wales had voted to Leave

that in some of the marginal constituencies that had voted to

leave she would gain support here. She was really targeting them. Of

course, we've got to see what the results are now. Carwyn Jones, the

First Minister of Wales, really led Labour's campaign here in Wales.

Jeremy Corbyn did visit, but he wasn't particularly visible here.

Labour were campaigning under the brand of Welsh Labour, which they

say has been successful for them in the past. What he's just been saying

now is that he doesn't want to comment on it too much, on this exit

poll, of course, it's very early days. But he did make the point that

he didn't feel that Theresa May had engaged with people when she had

come on these visits and he made the point that she hadn't entered into

the debates. Plaid Cymru expected to remain on three. They have been

working very hard on a target seat for them. Their former leader coming

out of retirement to stand as an MP there. They're going to be looking

very closely at that. Also, the rounda, where they've been working

very hard and Leanne chose to launch the Plaid Cymru manifesto. Clive

Myrie is in south London, Tooting, covering Battersea and Putney as

well. We're keeping an eye, obviously on our first result from

Sunderland or wherever. Over to you. Yes, could be very interesting here

in the Wandsworth area. Three constituencies Putney, Justine

Greening, big figure in the party, pretty unassailable it seems

according to the polls. A 10,000 majority. Highly likely to retain

that seat for the Conservatives. It's the Tooting and Battersea seats

that could be very interesting indeed. Tooting, Sadiq Khan's old

seat, now the Mayor of London. In the by-election, once he stood down

in 2016, it was held by the Labour Party. But the majority was just

over 6,000. The Conservatives have coveted Tooting for the last two

election cycles at least. They've poured money in here. They've poured

campaigners in here. They really felt, certainly up until the last

four or five days of the campaign, that they were making inroads. I've

talked to some of the Labour activists here. They're pretty

confident that they will hang on to Tooting. They've been putting out

mail shots to all their activists in the area to come to Tooting, to

campaign and their feeling is that they've done pretty well on the

doorstep. The final seat here Battersea, held by the Conservatives

a majority of 8,000, but that tonight is being described as on a

knife edge. If the overall exit poll that you've been talking about

throughout the evening is anything to go by, it could well be that the

Labour Party have taken that seat. Very interesting times here at the

Wandsworth count. We're waiting for Sunderland south. Before we get it,

there they are counting. Emily, tell us what we should look out for in

terms of verifying the exit poll, if you can do that? This is the first

real test of the exit poll and whether it's on target. This is the

2015 share of the vote. It's solid Labour. We don't expect that to

change. Labour then on 55% of the vote at the moment, Ukip in second

place and the Conservatives in third place. If our forecast is on track.

Then Labour's share of the vote goes up to 68%. Keep that figure in your

mind. When the real result comes in, if it's on or around there, we know

that the exit poll is correct in this seat in this part of the world

at least. This is what our forecast is suggesting: There could be a big

drop for Ukip there, down 15%. Some gains even for the Conservatives

here and large gains of 13% for Labour. So those are the sorts of

figures that we'll be putting side by side the exit poll to see if it

all makes sense. John Curtis was our man in charge of the exit poll, done

by these three broadcasting companies. What would you like to

say about it, are you surprised by it? I think we should always start

with exit polls by suggesting what we can rule out. It seems to me

unless the exit poll is correcty wrong, that the Prime Minister has

failed to achieve her principal objective, which was that she was

going to achieve a land slide, a very big majority for her party, in

the next House of Commons and there by providing her with rather more

wriggle room over Brexit. The second thing that we can probably rule out

is that the Labour Party is going to end up with more seats than the

Conservatives. We are probably talking about Theresa May or

somebody from the Conservative Party heading next administration. Those

are two things we can rule out. There after, whilst our exit poll at

the moment is saying that its central forecast is 314 Conservative

seats, which is short of an overall majority, I will remind you that two

years ago, we said it would be 316 Conservative seats and it ended up

being 331. We certainly, certainly cannot rule out the possibility that

the Conservatives will still have an overall majority, but maybe one that

isn't much bigger than the one they had before the election was called.

Thanks very much. Reminder of how it would look in the House of Commons,

Jeremy, are you ready? Yeah. Good. Let's see. OK. Let's take a look at

the House of Commons. We have a device here which we're looking at,

our coalition builder. When the election campaign began, we thought

this is not going to be how it ends up. We are looking now at who and

how you put together the 326 MPs you need for an overall majority in the

House of Commons. So, what we have here are the numbers. We have the

Conservatives 314, Labour 266, from the exit poll. We keep having to

say, without having a result yet. What we're going to do is pull them

out one at a time. Let's bring the Conservatives first. 314. As you see

here, we have the 326 line just here. Can they find some alliances

that will give them a majority in the House of Commons to maybe not a

coalition, maybe just a working arrangement, something to get the

Queen's speech through. 314 for the Conservatives, if that is the

result, leaves them as they were in 2010, looking for friends. In 2010

they went for the Liberal Democrats. This time that won't work. The Lib

Dems seem to have been bunt by that. They aren't playing ball. We shall

put in, shall we, let's put in the Democratic Unionist Party in

Northern Ireland. They have been happy to work with the Conservatives

in the past. The trouble here is they need 326, under the exit poll,

they're so far short of that, that they can only make 322 with the DUP.

Then you're left, there's no Ukip MP under the exit poll to bring in.

You're left with a situation where they've fallen short. For the

Conservatives, this is very awkward. Worth saying again, that the exit

poll wouldn't need to be, it's gone on the other side. There we are,

they've put all the parties into the other side of the House of Commons,

worth saying that the exit poll could be only slightly wrong and it

could change those figures drastically, so the Conservatives

don't need many alliances to get their 326 in the House of Commons.

Shall we just try this quickly with Labour. What can the numbers do for

Labour? It's tricky because the Lib Dems have said similar things about

Labour that they've said about the Conservatives. So let's just try

this, so we can visualise. 266 Labour seats. Maybe there's

something, some way of getting the SNP to work with Labour, maybe the

two of them could agree, vote by vote, bill by bill, to agrow a

Queen's Speech maybe. It's Labour and the SNP. That makes 300. They're

still a way short. I won't put in - well, let's put in the Lib Dems just

for the sake of it. Even then nowhere near 326. You put in Plaid

Cymru probably, the SDLP in Northern Ireland. The one Green MP, it's all

very theoretical because we're dealing with numbers we haven't had

confirmed at all. It's no easier for Labour to put a team together to get

to 326 under these numbers. This exit poll is so extraordinary

because it leaves all the parties a bit stuck. It really does leave the

Conservatives in difficulty getting to 326. Let's look at one of the

building blocks of that Jeremy. Geoffrey Donaldson of the DUP in

Northern Ireland, last time round, you had eight MPs. If that happened

again, what's your view of what you'd do and what do you make of

this election that was called to give the Prime Minister an overall

sweeping, grand majority? Well, David, good evening from Northern

Ireland. This is perfect territory for the DUP obviously because if the

Conservatives are just short of an overall majority, it puts us in a

very, very strong negotiating position. Certainly that is one that

we will take up with relish. What would your negotiating position be,

just for viewers who don't know what it is? Well, I'm not going to spell

that out in detail at this stage. Obviously, as in 2015, we had a lot

of speculation at the early stages of the evening. The Conservatives in

the end managed an overall majority at that stage. So I'm not going to

pre-empt the outcome, but what I will say is we will be serious

players, if there is a hung Parliament. We will go in and we

will talk to whoever it is that looks like the Conservatives will be

the largest party. We will talk to them. We have a lot in common. We

want to see Brexit work for the United Kingdom and of course for

Northern Ireland. We want to see the union strengthened and the

Conservatives are committed to that. I think there is a lot of common

ground on which we can work. Obviously we will want to get the

best deal for Northern Ireland itself. So you're keeping something

up your sleeve from our viewers tonight, because we know you were in

favour of Brexit and presumably you'll change the analogy, shoulder

to the wheel on that. Just give us a clue what else you're thinking of.

David, I've been a negotiator in Northern Ireland now for quite a

number of years and I know that any serious negotiator doesn't reveal

their hand in advance and we're not going to do that. In the past, I can

give you some clues, in the past what we have done is operate on a

vote by vote basis with the Government and looked at issues as

they arose in the House of Commons. Thank you very much. We may be into

a different scenario this time. Maybe we can talk again. You had a

point? It's worth saying in that previous Parliament, when the Tories

have been dealing with a small majority, you know working majority

of 17, they've already on some issues been very dependent on the

DUP. They are well used to dealing with them behind-the-scenes. I have

to say the DUP, who tend to take a stronger line on Brexit than the

Tory party, are very used to pressing the levers to get things

they want out of the Conservatives. Also worth saying, just to remember,

in terms of the number of 326, of course, Sinn Fein MPs don't tend to

take their seats, so when we're thinking about, if these numbers are

right, the Tories trying to build some kind of deal, maybe with the

DUP, the actual number that they're looking at is 323. If it's going to

be so finely balanced. They never have taken those seats, have they?

No. We think we've got about two minutes. Michelle let's go to you

for a moment. We'll keep an eye on Sunderland or Newcastle in case they

come through. With me is the chair of Momentum,

the organisation that was set up to support the leadership of Jeremy

Corbyn. What would a result in line with this exit poll mean for Mr

Corbyn personally? It would put him in a clear position of having, you

know, fought a very successful campaign. Which has resulted in

Theresa May failing to get the overwhelming majority she was

seeking. She sought an election that she had, several times, said she

wasn't going to call in order to get that overwhelming majority. She's

utterly failed. Jamie's fought a fantastic campaign. It looks as if

the Conservatives will be the largest party. Knowing Mr Corbyn as

you do, will he be trying to have those conversations, difficult as

they r, for all the reasons that Jeremy just outlined, with the SNP,

with the Liberal Democrats, with others, to try and find a route to

Number Ten? I really think it's much too early to start talking about

those things. This is just an exit poll. As it was said, very small

changes in these results could completely change the arithmetic of

that kind of thing, if that's where we are. It's not clear that's where

we are. I think that really is premature. Thank you.

One of the reasons it is taking a bit longer to account is that the

turnout in Sunderland is up by 5%. Still quite a low turnout. The

average was in the mid-60s last time around. When we do come to it, we

mark the card. Peter Kellner is here. If the exit poll is right, the

Labour candidates... Newcastle has won. We will go there. Let's have

the Newcastle result. They are the winners. They will have to read it

out fast. I'm ready to declare the result of

Newcastle upon Tyne. I, Pat Ritchie, returning officer, hereby give

notice that the total number of votes for each candidate for

Newcastle upon Tyne Central constituency is as follows. Nick

Cott, Liberal Democrats, 1812. Steve Kyte, Conservative Party candidate,

9134. David Muat, UK Independence Party, Ukip, 1282. Che on war,

Labour party, 24000 and 71. Peter John Stuart Thompson, Green Party

candidate, 595. Chi Onwurah has been duly elected to serve as member for

the said constituency. So here for the first time is the

way will boogie showing the results tonight. No surprise that Chi

Onwurah has held the seat. A majority of 14,000, up 2200 from

last time. The first victory of the night.

Dotmacro the terrible murder of Jo Cox just a year ago, and following

the atrocious attacks in Manchester and London. It is thanks to our

police and our emergency services that the democratic process can come

to such a successful conclusion. And I would also like to thank the

returning officer and all the staff yeah. It has been an efficient and

extremely quick count. And I'm also really glad to see that the National

youth Council... So the counters in Sunderland,

Newcastle rather, looking very pleased with themselves, having

beaten Sunderland to the post. Let's see the share. Labour on 65%, the

Conservatives on 25%. The change since last time, Labour up ten and

the Conservatives up ten percentage points. Ukip Dan 11. And the swing

from Conservative to Labour, 2%. Peter Kellner, in your view that is

better for the Conservatives and worse for Labour than the exit poll

was suggesting? The projection from the exit poll for this seat was

suggesting a split of 74% to 14%, Labour to Conservative. The exit

poll was projecting a 7% swing to Labour. We have a 2% swing. This is

a safe seat. It is not a battle ground seed. The exit poll will not

be so reliable in these kind of seats. Let me ask John Curtice.

Peter Kellner says it is not as accurate in this seat. Absolutely

right. I can explain why we were forecasting a big swing to Labour

this seat. The exit poll found that Labour would do better in the seats

it was defending where there was a substantial Remain vote in 2016 as

opposed to those places where there was a substantial Leave vote. We

don't expect Labour to do as well in Sunderland as they did in Newcastle.

We should note the direction of travel. It is a 2% swing to Labour.

Yes, it is a safe seat, but it is the first sign of the night that

maybe the country is going to drift from the Conservatives to the Labour

Party. Drift from Conservatives to Labour? Yes, we have a 2% swing for

a Labour in this poll. But not enough for a labour to overtake the

Conservatives? No. It is a much more pro-Remain Labour seat than

Sunderland. I don't know what has happened to Sunderland. They were

beavering away but nothing seems to have happened. One of the things to

say, that increase in the turnout in Newcastle is something that it is

thought has occurred fairly broadly across the country. Given that one

of the question marks about this election was, would people turn out?

Would young people in particular turnout? I would guess the Labour

Party would regard the evidence that turnout is up as relatively

encouraging from their point of view. Do you have any evidence about

young people? We don't. What I can tell you is that in general we are

finding that in constituencies where there are a large number of

graduates, who are disproportionately younger, we

expect Labour to do better than in places where there are fewer

graduates. Indeed in general. It looks as though from the exit poll

that that part of Britain which was predominantly Remain will be

relatively good territory for Labour. And the part of Britain that

was predominantly Leave will be good for the Conservatives. And therefore

this indeed may end up as having been a Brexit election even though

Brexit disappeared from the campaign trail.

I think we have the Sunderland result. I.e., Irene Lucas, acting

returning officer hereby give notice that the total number...

INAUDIBLE. I hope you can hear this. Paul Hamill, Conservative Party,

12300 and 24. Michael Anthony Joyce, UK Independence Party, 2375. Bridget

Phillipson, Labour party, 24,000... INAUDIBLE.

Bridget Phillipson has been duly elected. They may be able to count

in a hurry but they need to take control of their sound system.

Labour won. The Conservatives are up more than Labour in that seat. Ukip

went down to 2300 from a thousand last time around. If I heard it

right, the Conservatives were up from 7000 to more than 12,000. I

think we may have missed the Labour figure. We are trying to find it

out. And when we do we will be able to explain what has happened. Again

it is another seat where it looks as though... The Conservatives have

done substantially better in Newcastle and Sunderland than the

projection, Labour has done worse. These constituencies are 20 miles

apart. There may be something going on in safe Labour seeds. Or it may

be that the exit poll is wrong. We will have to wait a few hours to

find out. We have seen a significant fall away

in the Ukip vote. The Conservatives, from the start of this election, a

central part of their strategy was Ukip voters who may have previously

been Labour voters, they hoped would go straight across to the

Conservatives. There are 71 seat across the country where the Labour

majority was smaller than the Ukip vote in 2015. Early, early days, but

a pattern, even in these safe Labour seats, that the Ukip vote is

crashing. The Conservatives need that to happen across the country if

they are to enter up in a position to form a decent majority.

It looks as if the Ukip vote is not crashing completely to the

Conservatives, and that may be one of the reasons why Labour is doing a

bit better than the pre-election polls. I am still trying to discover

what happened in Houghton and Sunderland South. We have not been

able to decipher the figures because apparently of a microphone failure

at the counter. Have you got it on Twitter? Nobody has got it. We will

try to get it in due course. Let's go to Tim Farron's seat, what was

his seat, and joined Lucy Manning. Good evening. We are outside Tim

Farron's house. We are expecting him back here fairly soon. If the exit

poll is right, this will be seen as a pretty good night for the Liberal

Democrats. Even if they only gain a handful of seats, the expectations

were so low because there was such criticism of the campaign, the

Liberal Democrats offering this second vote on a Brexit deal that

the voters didn't seem to want, and questions about Tim Farron's

leadership. But now with this exit poll suggesting they could get 14

seats, it leaves him potentially in the position of a kingmaker. And

yesterday, when I spent some time with him on the bus Mac, I talked

over the notion of a hung parliament. He was absolutely clear

there would be no deals, no pact, no coalition, no confidence of supply

were they voted for the budget. Everyone remembers the Liberal

Democrats got burned when they went into coalition. They lost all those

seats at the last election. He is mindful of that and doesn't want to

repeat that. Lib Dem sources denied being very clear that that position

stays the same. No deals, no coalitions, no pacts. If there is a

hung parliament, the Liberal Democrats will be in a situation

where both sides may want them but they will only offer support on a

vote by the bases. I should add they are not sure this exit poll is

right. They are being cautious. In previous years the exit polls had

them on more seats than they ended up getting. They say some of their

key battles are too close to call. They are seeing a hardening up of

the vote for a Labour in some of the University seats they hope to get.

But I think at the moment they are more optimistic than they thought

they would be. Whether they have that traction we will discover as we

get some more results in. We now have the Houghton and Sunderland

South result. A safe Labour seat. There are the figures. 24,006 under

65 for Labour. Ukip in third place. The Conservatives in second. The

change from last time. The Conservatives up 11 percentage

points. Ukip down 16. The swing here from Labour to Conservatives of

3.5%. Peter Kellner, what do you make of that? The exit poll

expectations must an exact swing in the opposite direction. These first

two results unquestionably will be tuning the Conservatives up after a

pretty grim hour after the exit poll. Whether that tumult carry on

in the seeds that really matter, that will have to wait and see. What

would you be looking for next as a test? These are both seats in the

north-east. Where would you want to get your spread? It may be an hour

or more. These seats rush to declare. We were told Slough would

be very good. Slough will be interesting, Swindon North,

Battersea and Putney, early London decorations, where the Conservatives

may be vulnerable. Putney, Justine Greening, the Education Secretary.

Tooting, a Labour seat that Sadiq Khan won two years ago. These are

the kind of seats we will be waiting until two o'clock in the morning to

get. These places where they rush to get the counts done within an hour,

that is the exception. It will take a lot longer everywhere else. We're

joined by a familiar figure, Neil Hamilton. Now a member of Ukip. It

looks like a wipe-out for Ukip. You did your job, you got your Brexit

and that is it, game is up? We have been squeezed. Theresa May intended

this to be a binary competition between Labour and the Tories. It

has not worked out as she expected after the disastrous campaign. Ukip

as an enduring place in Welsh politics, certainly. We have our

members in the Welsh Assembly for the next four years. I believe after

this disastrous election for the Conservatives, we will be able to

carve out a prominent niche for ourselves in UK politics as well,

because we put forward a lot of policies in this election campaign

which none of the other parties can copy us on, like slashing the

humanitarian aid budget, putting money into the health service,

scrapping green taxes. None of that came out in this campaign which was

focused for Ukip supporters on the Brexit issue. A lot of them have

clearly gone to the Tories. But her that Theresa May's position would

have been very bleak indeed. Looks like Ukip will not have any seats in

Westminster. No. Your strength will be in Wales, will it? It is. That

was meant to be a tease! You could rebound from Wales. We have a

proportional representation system which means we get fair

representation, not liking the first past the post system at Westminster.

Let's hear the reaction fted two results, if you have any in? The

initial shock in Conservative circles have subsided and thoughts

about the longer term implications. Tim Montgomerie an influential

Conservative writer tweeted - May hae has been the most disastrous

Tory leader since? ? ? . Anthonie Eden. There's talk about how long

Slee would last as Prime Minister. And Tom Newton Dunne, editor of a

paper who has been in support of Theresa May and they have crunched

their numbers and he said he is convinced the exit poll is wrong,

"It simply just doesn't add up "Quop more broadly, talk about what it

means for Brexit. Alastair Campbell, a vigorous Popent of Theresa May and

Conservative -- a vigorous opponent of Theresa May. He says - "This

election is a rejection of May and hard Brexit. A vote for one to go

and the other to be revisited." That's be a big issue post-election

discussion. And the former Swedish Prime Minister has also put out a

message saying - "This could be messy for the United Kingdom in the

years ahead, one mess risks following another, price to be paid

for the lack of true leadership." So huge international implications and

opponents of Theresa May in Europe are looking at this with some glee,

I think. Laura back for a moment to the exit poll. What would Theresa

May need to get to quell anxiety, fury, plotting, against her in the

Conservative Party? What do you think now she's obviously heard the

exit poll, what will she be thinking - how much do I need to remain Prime

Minister? If the exit poll turns out to be anything like right, then it

is very, very dicey for her. Why do I say that? Even after the campaign,

one senior Conservative said to me today - after the mistakes she's

made in the campaign, she will not be allowed to fight the next general

election campaign. That was one view, but from a senior member of

the party that said even the experience of seeing her exposed in

some ways on the campaign trail, not seeming politically nimble and run a

resounding campaign, that her time was limited in terms of staying on

until the next general election. Now, of course, this could be wrong.

A sigma jot, a safe majority could -- a significant majority, a safe

majority could blow her out of the water. 30 and below I think she's

damaged. Most Tories would be happy with 50 or 60 but if the poll is

anything like right she is miles away. If she ends up with no overall

majority, very damaged but I think it is a result, even if she climbs

up to a majority of 15, 20, 25, 30, shes' still very, very tarnished by

this whole experience. Of course, she had a working majority of 17.

Which was uncomfortable, it was difficult. She had to give up on

some things and change her mind and drop policies she is not going to be

able to get through. She made the Chancellor ditch the central part of

his budget because the party wouldn't wear it but she had a

majority and was able to get things done. She didn't have to call this

election. Do you think she will be able to change her Chancellor? Which

everybody said before this election, that Hammond was on the way out? It

was widely expected, if she ended up with a majority that she would sack

Philip Hammond. You never know until the reshuffle comes. But she won't

be in a strong position to do things that offend other parts of the party

Indeed not. But in terms of the current balance of the Conservative

Party, I think cheer leaders for Mr Hammond would not necessarily be in

great enough numbers to be able to force her to keep him. That said, if

the political situation seems extremely rocky, extremely

uncertain, certainly in terms of the economic reaction, changing a

Chancellor, who's respected by the City, is not something that would be

seen as a wise move. I don't think that it is just us sitting here in

the studio talking, all over the country, 650 places, well actually

since we have had two, 648 places are busy counting. Let's see where

they are. Islington, for instance, at the moment, where Jeremy Corbyn's

seat is counted and Emily Thornbury's seat is counted.

Huddersfield, where there are a whole clutch of marginal

constituencies. In West Yorkshire, where the Conservatives were hoping

to make grounds in. Two seats in Derby. And there where we were a

moment ago, at Tim Farron's constituency. All of these people

brought in as volunteers, paid, styles bank clerks paid to do this

work. It is responsible. You have to open each occupy, verify t make sure

you have made no mistake. Not electronic, all done by hand in the

old-fashioned way. That's why it is taking time. If it is true that the

turnout everywhere is up, then the slower pace of results is what we

can expect. Mishal. David, with me is the former Labour Home Secretary

and former Foreign Secretary, Jack Straw. Welcome. When Corbyn was

elected you said he would lead Labour into political oblivion, this

is a night where the exit poll suggests Labour has made gains. Yes

and if that is the case I'm delighted. I have been in the Labour

Party actually slightly longer than Jeremy Corbyn and working in this

election, as everybody has for a Labour victory. One of the really

interesting things about this election, it is not without note, it

is public, that a lot of people particularly in the parliamentary

party or just left had reservations about Jeremy but one of the

interesting things about the election is that the Labour Party

has a whole has been very disciplined in this election, got

behind Jeremy Corbyn, got behind the manifesto and if this exit poll is

anything to go by, it suggests we have done better than most people

thought Are you suggesting it is more about the party and the party

machine than a personal vindication? No, listen, it is also a great

personal credit to Jeremy Corbyn, if this is correct and to John

MacDonald and no-one can take it away from them. What you have seen

in the election, and I didn't expect it, is great vigour and consistency

by the Labour Party, including on the ground, by Labour candidates.

Again, the thing I didn't expect was that in place of a strong and stable

leader, to coin a phrase, you have had a weak and wobbly leader and

this is a sort of disaster for both the Conservative Party and for

Theresa May. The only perhaps, silver lining out of it, from the

country's point of view, if it ends up with a hung Parliament, with the

Conservatives being the largest party, you may get a more sensible

set of negotiations for Brexit, than would otherwise be the case. Well,

not necessarily. It depends where she looks for support. If it's the

DUP, for example, the obvious people she will turn to in the first

instance. But if you are in a minority. I worked in a minority

Government. I worked in the 1976-79 Labour Government. And if you are in

that situation, you have to compromise not only with your own

side but also with the other side as well. It is just the way

thealchairmeny and chemistry of Parliament works -- the alchemy.

John, a questiony about the exit poll. People saying that maybe 20 or

25% of people have cast postal ballots. You stand your people at

secret. I know because I have asked you to tell me where they are, and

you won't tell me. Secret polling stations around the country, 144,

what happens about the postal ballots, one-quarter of the vote?

Well, what we are doing with the exit poll is comparing how people

who went to the polling station voted this time with how those

people who went to the same polling station two years ago voted. So the

assumption we are essentially making is not necessarily that postal

voters will vote the same way as those who went to the polling

station but that the movement in whatever direction will be roughly

similar amongst those who voted by post and those who voted at

stations. It is a sample, really Obviously it may be true they behave

differently. The one thing I can tell you is one of the things we

looked at our data is our polling stations vary in the proportion of

people who are registered to vote by post but there isn't any

relationship between the swing to the Conservatives or Labour or

whatever and the proportion of people in pooling station that were

registered to vote by post. One other thing - is it possible under

your exit poll that there could be nevertheless, at the end of the

night, be a big or substantial Conservative majority It depends how

you define substantial or big. Peter Kellner's point. How would you

define it? He is on post now. I would say if the exit poll is as

wrong everywhere else than it is in the first two results, it could be

800, 100 majority but if you dial it down, a majority of 30 or o 40 A

majority of 30 or 40 I think we stillville to reward as potentially

possible. He said 80 or 100? Well shall we say, we would be clearly

astray. I don't want to bore you. Never. One thing that happens with

exit polls is they exaggerate the forecasts in terms of the

differences between constituencies, OK. Because we are looking at two

constituents, in where we are -- constited sis, where we are looking

at a swing to Labour, it maybe that we've exaggerated the extent to

which that is going on. I will come back to you in a moment but Katya

Adler is standing by in Brussels, our Europe editor. Let's speak to

her. Have you had a reaction to the surprising exit poll, let me put it

no stronger than, that that we have had this evening? No official

reaction so far. We are talking about exit polls but I would love to

see the thought bubbles here in Brussels and in political and EU

circles in Berlin and Paris tonight. It is in all of these places across

Europe that people, politicians, leaders are glued to their

television and radio sets tonight. It is not just in the United

Kingdom. Because, of course this will have a huge impact on Brexit.

The EU didn't really care how these elections would turn out. What

flavour of Government would turn out in the UK but nearly a year on after

the EU referendum they want to get down to business. They were hoping

to start the face-to-face negotiations with the UK for the

first time in about ten days' time. Now all of this, there is a big

question mark hanging over it. They wanted what they've said was a

strong Prime Minister, a secure Prime Minister, somebody who would

be in place for the duration of the negotiations. Somebody who knew

their mind and were confident in it and wouldn't be beholden to smaller

groups, whether within their party or outside their party. What the EU

doesn't want, once negotiations start, is one who waifs and u-turns

and doesn't know their minds. -- waivers.

And it is important for the UK, Article 50 bass strirged the

countdown to Brexit has started under EU rules. They have to get

that divorce deal sign, sealed and delivered by the EU, never mind a

future trade dee. Any hesitation is costly for the UK. -- trade deal. So

in other words they did want Theresa May to get a hefty majority. You

said at the beginning they didn't care but from what you said

subsequently, if they want clarity or a leader who knows what she's

doing and doesn't have to look over her shoulder all the time, a big

majority for May would've helped them They didn't want Theresa May or

Jeremy Corbyn more than anyone else. They just said they wanted a Prime

Minister secure enough in their position to be able to know their

mind and push forward the negotiations o, to appoint a chief

Brexit negotiator for the EU, the most important figure, sitting

opposite them at the table, with the chief EU negotiator who comes from

the European Commission and they will be discussing tout, week by

week, month by month, right up to the next minute, probably, by all

Brussels' deals in the past. So what they need is a ghaft is stable, but

not particularly, for EU tastes, Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn or

anybody else, but somebody who will remain in that seat for the duration

of the negotiations. It is interesting this. You know there was

some criticism of the campaign. We had John McDonnell complaining that

Brexit never surfaced and he never talked about Brexit and how it would

be conducted. The Conservatives never really talked about it. Is

there a feeling in Brussels that they have ideas, they know the way

they want Brexit to go but the British Government doesn't know the

way it wants it to go? That is so much the feeling here. I mean, from

the Brussels' perspective or EU perspective, if you like, the UK

seems Will seemed to tear itself apart after the EU referendum with

recriminations between Leavers and Remainers and it dived into

preparations for a general election and in the meantime almost #12b

months have gone by and during that time, the -- 12 months have gone by

and during that time the EU is getting its Brexit ducks in a row.

It has its chief negotiator in place and he has his team and they have

been dotting the I's and crossing the T's. They have draft papers

already on specific points like the amount of money itp wants the UK to

pay before he leaves the EU. The EU citizens' rights, the rights of EU

citizens who stay in the UK after Brexit and the rights of UK citizens

in the EU. Now Theresa May said they had a clear plan but they didn't

want to divulge it but as far as the public was concerned there were a

lot of platitudes spread around, Brexit means Brexit and no more

details than that. The EU is a big, big contrast. They can't keep

anything a secret because there are so many players involve. 27

countries, plus the European Commission and European Parliament.

They are being transparent. They are publishing this and there are a lot

of details prepared already. Thank you very much.

Let's go to Cambridge. The Conservatives hold the seat. The

Liberal Democrats are hoping to take it. Is it your impression that the

Liberal Democrats think they may have taken Cambridge, or Labour has

kept it? I think the feeling very much in the hall, on the ground is

that Labour is going to squeak it and hold on. It is one of the

tightest battle grounds in the country and it has been a bitter,

bitter battle between Labour and the Lib Dems. In Cambridge as

nationally, the Lib Dems have fought on offering a second EU referendum.

In Cambridge, if they can't take Cambridge, one of the cities with

the highest Remain votes in the country, the feeling is that that

so-called Lib Dem surge won't happen despite what the exit polls say. The

student vote is absolutely key. There are about 12,000, 13,000

registered voters. We don't know whether they are going to vote,

where they are going to vote, in Cambridge or their home address. But

the senses they have come out. That means a Labour hold. In this hole

already, thoughts of a recount are not being dismissed. We do think at

the moment a Labour hold. Your Air Canada Centre is particularly

beautiful. Where is it you are? It is a lot better than the school

gymnasium juicy. It is in the Guild Hall, slap bang in the Market

Square. Few hundred yards away from The Leaders Debate took place. We

are very much in the centre of Cambridge. We talk about the

referendum and the Remain votes, only about 200 yards away from here

is the constituency warred with the highest Remain vote in the entire

United Kingdom. Let's go to Hastings. There are some smiles on

the faces, apparently, of Labour. That is right, yes. Labour seem

pretty ecstatic. That is a big contrast from both the Conservatives

and the Liberal Democrats. The Conservatives looking tense and

nervous. Just talking to the Conservative Party chairman. He says

they have had a positive campaign but a strong vote in the county

areas. They were not very keen to talk beyond that. This is the seat

held by the current Home Secretary, Amber Rudd. No sign of her yet. We

have been told she will not give any media interviews today. That remains

to be seen. Labour say they have had a fantastic campaign, despite this

being a snap election. They say they mobilised 2000 volunteers and have

canvassed more homes than ever before. That is because of Jeremy

Corbyn, they say. The Liberal Democrats say their vote has been

completely squeezed and they are worried about losing their deposit.

Thank you. Sophie Raworth is in the north-east. You have two more

declarations. What is the timetable? Sunderland Central is the one we are

expecting next. It is taking an awfully lot longer than it usually

does. They are still counting the votes for Sunderland Central over

there. One of the main reasons it is taking longer is because the turnout

is up again in this seat. 62.1%. That is 5% higher than it was in

2015. It is a funny atmosphere here in this vast sports hall. People are

genuinely baffled. They are not sure what to make of it all. When that

exit poll came out, there was real surprise among some Labour

supporters. They didn't really expect to see anything like that.

Others say it was something they saw reflected on the doorsteps during

the campaign. Some of the campaign officials believe the rise of the

bigger turnout is down to more young people engaging. That is what they

are sensing about this campaign. The next result we are going to get will

be the Sunderland Central seat that was held by Julie Elliott. She had a

huge majority. 50% of the share in 2015. Again there was a very big

Ukip surge in 2015. They had 19% of the vote. It will be interesting to

see what happens to that and where it goes. How much of that vote

Labour get, how much the Conservatives get. But the count,

the declaration, is expected in about ten or 15 minutes.

Wales, Emily. Let's look at Wales. It is not just Sunderland where they

are baffled. We are acknowledging that things are up in the air. We

are maybe recalibrating some of our forecasts. I pointed out some of the

seats were Labour have a 90% chance of taking them from the

Conservatives. I am now going to point out some seats the

Conservatives could take from Labour. They are mostly in this part

of North Wales. I would show you one on the Wales England border, which

we could get in quite early. Wrexham has been Labour since 1935. The

Conservatives need a 3% swing. A Labour majority of just short of

2000. On our forecast, it suggests the Conservatives could take up to a

50% share of the vote. That is Wrexham. We will be able to compare

that with the real result when we get that in. Delyn in North Wales is

another one. This is the 2015 fold. Labour on 41% to 33% from the

Conservatives. It has been Labour since 1932. A majority of just short

of 3000. The forecast would suggest the Conservatives can take a 51%

share of the vote. The Conservatives need a 4% swing. The lead votes in

these seats in the mid-50s. The same part of the world, this is 2015.

Alyn and Deeside. Labour in the lead. On current forecast there

could be a move to the Conservatives of more than 10%. That would put the

Conservatives into this seat. And the last one, Clywd South, a

majority of 2500. You can see Labour holds it at the moment. Susan Elan

Jones. It is suggesting the Conservatives could take it. These

are very interesting. Very different to the ones we have been looking at

in England, where I showed you some of the movement that Labour is

expected to be making, according to the exit polls. That is what we are

now going to compare Juanmi get the first Wales won in. It will be

interesting if throughout the country we see Conservatives being

better -- doing better in Leave areas, which in North Wales

suggests... That was sort of what we were expecting. At the beginning of

the night we thought we would see Labour possibly doing better in

Wales, in London, and the Conservatives doing better in other

parts of the UK. A lot of things are up in the air. We're just waiting

for any indication of what is going on on the ground.

Laura, what news have you got? From around the front just some tips

coming to me. The Tories are looking very hopeful in Gordon in Scotland.

We know the Tories are expecting probably around eight seats in terms

of taking them from the SNP in Scotland. Gordon matters because

this is the constituency of Alex Salmond, the former SNP leader. He

is a major figure in Scottish politics. The Tories have been

targeting that's it aggressively. Soundings from there that they have

done very well. Labour are hopeful in Edinburgh South. They have taken

that seat from the SNP. More importantly for the national

picture, Labour quietly confident in Croydon Central. That was around

number 40 in their English targets. It would give us a flavour of the

kinds of places they think they can take. Labour quietly confident in

Croydon Central. We had -- heard during the day that they were

flooding it with activists to get the vote out. That could be the kind

of seat that tells us a lot about the general direction. We should

explain the expression quietly confident. Quietly confident at the

count because they have seen the number of ballot papers lining up?

These are soundings from this evening. Soundings from a variety of

people at cans were seeing how things are stacking up, and that

parties' operations where they are getting information from the cans.

When I used to go to cans, you could actually see how it stored. Even

though you could not say it. Everybody seems to be accepting that

the turnout is well up. It seems at this early stage that is because of

younger people. That is of course what Jeremy Corbyn was looking for.

One Cabinet minister has just said to me that this is the election

where young people started voting. And perhaps tomorrow it may seem for

all the political parties that the demographics of who they have to try

to please may be shifting. With me is the cabinet minister,

pretty Patel, the International Development Secretary. I know you

will get to your own count in Essex. Let's talk about the exit poll,

along with two results. If the exit poll is correct, it was the wrong

decision for Theresa May to call the election? The exit poll is only a

projection, and illustration, it is not the actual result. There is a

long way to go. The point about calling the election, as the Prime

Minister said when she announced that, the country has a choice in

leadership. Look at the big decisions that are opened coming

around Brexit, look at the choices we will have to make as a country.

That of course is what this election campaign has been about for the

Conservative Party. The Prime Minister's campaign was very robust.

There was very little the Conservative Party put forward about

Brexit? I disagree with that completely. What detail did you put

forward? The Prime Minister has been clear in speeches, the 12 points

around negotiation, taking back control about money, orders,

safeguarding workers' rights. These are key areas. She and others have

spoken about them during the campaign. I don't think it is right

to say we have not been focused on Brexit. We have been very clear.

This is a complete contrast to other parties who want to frustrate

Brexit. When it came to the Labour Party, they have not got a coherent

plan on Brexit. If your party ends up with a reduced majority or no

overall majority in the House of Commons, what would that mean for

her personally? First of all, I don't accept and I will not go down