Urmas Paet - Foreign Minister, Estonia HARDtalk

Now on BBC News, it's time for HARDtalk.

Welcome to HARDtalk with me, Zeinab Badawi. The crisis in Ukraine has

put the spotlight on the relationship between Russia and the

EU. How much carrot and how much stick should be EU wield when it

comes to dealing with Moscow? The Baltic states, Latvia, Lithuania and

Estonia were once part of the Soviet Union and all share a border with

the Russian Federation. Late guest today is Urmas Paet, Foreign

Minister of Estonia, the smallest of the three. Why does it think that

getting tough with President Putin is the most effective way to contain

Russia? Foreign Minister, Urmas Paet,

welcome to HARDtalk. In light of the Ukraine crisis, you believe that the

EU has the right policy towards Russia? The short answer is yes. I

think we should try and find a point between sanctions and other ways to

work through talks with Russia. With Russia, also Ukraine should be

included as well. All crises have been sold through dialogue and

talks. So a combination between carrot and stick? Yes. And now that

Russia says it is beginning to withdraw its troops on the border

with Eastern Ukraine, how far would you be assured by that? We need

facts, concrete facts so that if all this really happens, it is important

but we also need to seek what would happen during the presidential

elections in Ukraine and the crucial issue is, how the situation in

eastern and southern parts of Ukraine will develop. Of course,

Russia has huge influence. We will see. Your Defence Minister until

mid`March said this: we must admit to ourselves that in Britain's

Russia we are dealing with an aggressive regime that is seeking to

restore the Empire in the Borders of the former Soviet Union. Do you

believe that could happen, that Russia could have designed on

Estonia, for instant? The Russian leaders have declared that the aim

is to build up the union. We have seen doing the last, year or year

and a half direct pressure vis`a`vis Georgia, Moldova, Romania. All this

military development in Ukraine as well. What concerns Estonia, we are

clearly in a different situation because of our membership in NATO

and the EU. But do you honestly believe that Russia, as your former

defence said is sticking to restore its empire in the borders of the

former Soviet Union? I think the idea is to get the direct influence

over Russia's neighbouring countries but once again, Estonia, Latvia,

Lithuania, we are in the area of a different situation. We have

membership in NATO and the EU. It makes a difference. So you feel

safer than Ukraine because you are members of the EU and NATO?

Absolutely. Does that mean that Ukraine, Eastern Ukraine, if it came

to down the Lion could up being part of the Russian Federation is NATO

was powerless to stop it? I hope that will not happen. Most countries

in the world and also members of NATO and the EU have clearly

expressed our views that it is absolutely unacceptable what already

happened in Crimea. We have to do everything to stop all this

development is in eastern and southern Ukraine. It should be very

clear that every country, including Ukraine, should have the chance and

right to make decisions are about future. How much carrot and how much

stick is there when it comes to dealing with Russia, in your view,

in Estonia's view? Would you like to see the EU get more tough with

Vladimir Putin? The short answer is yes. There are not so much measures

all possibilities for European countries and also the US to

influence Russia. We have declared clearly how we would like to see

developments. There should be de`escalation and Russia needs to

play a role but unfortunately, we have not seen any real

de`escalation. What kind of toughness are you talking about?

More stations? That is one of the strong as possibilities. But you

know that there were deeper sanctions, people like the Austrian

Foreign Minister said on the 13th of May, we should not earn `` yearn for

sanctions with Russia as they would not only hit Russia but also

definitely hit us he means the EU. They are very different options. One

is arms, then issues related to different financial corporations,

banking. And then all of my colleagues in the EU agree that if

escalation goes further and that is no de`escalation in the foreseeable

future, we don't have any other option. Sanctions are the cart?

Because you don't want to risk your energy ties with Russia because the

EU relies on Russia for 30% of its energy needs. In Estonia, you rely

on Russia and refined oil and gas to the tune of 100%? That is true. In

overall energy consumption, in Estonia, it is 11 or 12% so not too

high. In Europe, I guess that all this crisis in Ukraine gave also

very strong push really to develop our common energy. But that will not

happen very quickly. Something ready happen. Look at possibilities also

to revise the flow of gas from Hungary, the luckier to Ukraine, for

example. At the moment, we are in the process to start also

construction of a gas pipeline. That will take a long time. Nobody really

thinks that could be done in the near`term. If you were to have

deeper sanctions, Russia could retaliate, couldn't it? We already

know that Russia says it will tonight the US, for instance, future

use of the International space Station beyond 2020. Russia will not

just sit back, will it? What is another option? If we don't want to

just sit and wait, we have to do something. I mean, Europe, the US,

we have to do something. If we are not moving forwards with sanctions,

if it is necessary, what is an alternative? So you accept that

Russia could retaliate? Is possible, yes. Can I put to you what Ian

Bremner from the Eurasia think tank said: there is a policy is that

there is a possibility that Russia will retaliate via a cyber attack.

This is something that Estonia complained about in 2007 when you

were subjected to what you call, cyber warfare. You accused Moscow

and Russia denied. What is the likelihood of cyber attacks with

yellow side attacks, unfortunately in today's world, is quite well

developed. At the same time, I am also happy that NATO and more

countries take it seriously. They have quite well prepared cyber

defence systems. We have a NATO cyber defence Centre and we are

quite confident that most of European countries and the US,

Canada actually are quite well prepared for possible attacks in the

cyber sphere. What is the likelihood of Russia going in for the cyber

attacks against the US or other Western nations? Some people say 50,

60. What do you mean by that? It actually shows that everything is

possible but it is quite unclear. If we saw what happened with Crimea,

what is going on in eastern and southern parts of Ukraine,

unfortunately, it is possible that other not too nice steps can be

taken. Do you think that we might possibly be entering the beginning

of a chapter in a new Cold War? There will be no new Cold War. It

will be completely different situation. There will be no

distillation `` de`escalation, if you look back what happened in the

20th century, it was all about ideology. Today, it is about sphere

of influence. Do you fear Russia in Estonia? Your history was one of

repression under the soviet union. You occupied in 1940, lost 20% of

Estonia's population through repression or deportations. Has that

made you fearful of Moscow, perhaps? All of this what you just said shows

how much we would like to see good relations between NATO and Russia,

the EU and Russia and that Russia will develop as a normal country. We

would like to have good, normal relations with our eastern

neighbour. But what you described, yes, it is historic reality. If I am

honest, I should say yes, it is part of Estonian society which feels

uncomfortable. If you watch on the TV what happens in Ukraine and all

of this military training in Russia. That is why we must do

everything to stop all this aggressive behaviour. You don't just

see it as history that Vladimir Putin, for instance, in that era,

these were all just young people that this is something to do with

the past, why do you see it as still posing a threat in the present?

Because of Premier. Gods of what is going on in Ukraine and 2008 in

George R. All this aggression. The decisions made by the Russian

Parliament. That is not normal in the 21st century. You keep saying,

we feel safer competitive crane because Estonia is a member of the

EU and NATO. You say you would like to see good relations between NATO

and Russia. Your current Defence Minister keeps on... Is reiterating

this point and says: NATO can be effectively used to counter new

threats. Is that kind of rhetoric helpful? It just annoys Moscow,

doesn't it? I think it is helpful and is clearly showing that the

defence principles of NATO are active. It is important to show it

clearly to Russia because as I mentioned, it is not only about

annexation of Crimea which is outrageous. It is also about the

massive military exercises in the whole western Why keep mentioning

Russia? Russia has not got the insurance that NATO would not expand

endlessly eastwards, and that Russia's interest would be taken

into consideration. What it means? Russian interests? Every country has

the right to make a choice about the country's future. Estonia has chosen

to be a member of EU and NATO. It is our independent choice. Also Russia

has the right to choose about Russia's future, not about

Ukraine's future or Romania's future. Of course, but there is this

understanding, and explicit promise made to Russia that expansion would

not reach its borders. I don't know that there was. Dmitry Medvedev is

saying that we have these assurances that it wouldn't come right up to

our borders. Is it wise, particularly at this hot time, to

keep ringing up the fact that Ukraine, for example, could easily

become a member of NATO in the future, as the head of NATO said

recently. Every country has the right to make these choices, and

when we talk about possible future membership of NATO and the EU, in

the end it to prance on Ukraine. You have said that we think, Georgia

should go in to NATO, do you think that is a good kind of rhetoric when

you have Henry Kissinger, for example, in March this year, Ukraine

should not join NATO. That is a position I took seven years ago when

at last came up. I completely disagree. I don't think that any

other country has the right to decide where Ukraine should be after

ten years. No, but is that rhetoric useful, coming from governments such

as Iran, when Henry Kissinger made the additional point that the

demonisation of Vladimir Putin is not a policy. It is not a policy,

but NATO did not start what happened in Georgia five years ago, they did

not start now in Crimea and the Ukraine, so Russia and the Russian

leaders should look at the mirror. You are putting a lot of faith in

military powers, but they are cutting their defence budgets. The

US will cut it by 9% in 2015, the UK has cut its defence budget by 8% in

2010, so where do you see this kind of military might coming from? I

still think that what we agreed in NATO a few years ago, that every

country should spend 2% of GDP on defence, then we get it. If we like

to see that there is support from other NATO members, to Estonia, and

also we had to invest into this. You did it, but you have a population of

1.3 million, 1.4 million, hardly a major power, is it? Again, always

this question, what is a... Still, I think that Estonia has 1.2 million

people, but we would like to fulfil all international obligations that

we have taken. As you say, Estonia, a population of 1.3 million, about

300,000 of that are ethnic Russians, Russian speakers, concentrated in

one particular region, where they make up 80%. They make up 95% a lot

of them are stateless. They don't have Estonian passports. Why?

Because they didn't want them. All people who live permanently in

Estonia have the right to apply for Estonian citizenship or Estonian

passports. How do they and that citizenship? They have to pass

language exams and know a little bit about the history of Estonia and

territories. If they can't speak Estonian to a certain level, and

because they are ethnic Russians and Russian speakers, and some of them

are quite elderly, they won't get an Estonian passport? Elderly people,

older people, they have a very easy process. I guess it is natural, if

you live in one country, you should know the language, at least on a

minimal level. It is not, how do you say, too much... The UNHCR said that

there are many children amongst this population, who are also stateless.

The UNHCR said there are children amongst them, and you should give

them these passports automatically, regardless of what their parents do

and whether they are unwilling or unable to get them. We speak about a

thousand children, not 300,000. No, I said that are many children among

300,000 ethnic Russians. Yes, at the moment, we are going through the

process of changing the legislation. Yes, all those children will get

Estonian citizenship automatically. Why didn't you do it sooner quiz

yellow also today they have the right to get Estonian passport

straightaway. The parents just write an application, one sentence. You

accept that that is a gap? We are in the process of changing the

legislation. Or general rate of unemployment is about 8.9%. If you

look at the ethnic Russians, that is 25.6%. It is not so high, I don't

know where you get your figures from. Let's not dispute the

figures. This is what Europe's human rights watchdog says, with the

framework Convention on the protection of national minorities,

it says there is a relative absence of ethnic minorities from high

levels of public sector employment, and disproportionately high levels

of unemployment. I don't disagree. I don't want to divide Estonia. So

that there are Estonians and Russians. Estonian society, as you

mention, is not very big. It is 1.3 million. To divided internally I

don't think it will get an adequate picture. The head of the college in

the Russian speaking area of Estonia, it says that Estonia needs

to reach out to its Russian minority to provide a different

interpretation for world events. You will be storing up problems for

yourself if you allow your Russian minority to in any way become

alienated. If you compare the situation 20 years ago, to what it

is today, I think there has been a very clear and strong development.

Yes, you can find, of course, people who are not satisfied. But once

again, if you compare it to the situation from which we came after

50 years of Soviet occupation, and where we are today, then we see that

the situation has improved. Into a thousand... In 2007 you had protests

on the removal of a Soviet War Memorial in Estonia. That is an

example of how the ethnic Russian minority is not always content. Yes,

you can of course find this kind of science. The memorial is now in a

military cemetery, and everything is peaceful, after this memorial was

removed. This political propaganda... One member from a

think tank says that the Russian speaking minority could be exploited

in a similar way to Ukraine, using Russian media under the control of

the Kremlin. Are you worried that might happen? No. I am absolutely

sure that the majority of people in Estonia, including Russians, want to

live in Estonia and not in the Russian Federation. I didn't say

that, nor but could it be exploited to become more restless, unless

there standard of living is improved? Could find different

provocations in London, you could find them anywhere. It is easy to do

that. If you speak about socio`economic conditions in

Estonia, and once again, there is nothing to compare, for example,

with Ukraine. China said in March, through a newsagency, it is time for

Western powers to respect Russia's role in mapping out the future of

Ukraine. The West should show more appreciation for what Russia can do

to solve the crisis in Ukraine. Did Russia have a point? I don't see any

point. I think solving the problem means annexing one part of another

country, I don't think that is solving the problem. So, the Chinese

are wrong? Russia doesn't have a unique role, and there should not be

more understanding of Russia's history and psychology when it comes

to this, as Henry Kissinger says? We can of course understand more, but

we cannot give the right to try to have direct influence, political,

economic, even military influence, to the neighbours. How far should an

EU company like Estonia, once occupied by the Soviet Union, how

far should you play a bridging role for the EU between Russia and the

EU? Is that something you could do? We can, and I guess we do. Because

Russian people in Estonia, also historic experience, I guess we can

also give some added value to the discussions. Developments in Russia

and the EU, and the Russian relationship. As I said, our

ultimate goal is to have at least normal relationship with Russia,

bilaterally but also between the EU and Russia. Are you doing that? Yes,

we are doing it, but unfortunately, not always the developments are

really positive, if we look at what is going on at the moment and what

happened in the Ukraine in the last months. Urmas Paet, the Foreign

Minister of Estonia, thank you for coming on HARDtalk. Thank you, thank

you very much. We are going to see some further

thundery downpours coming our way, particularly tomorrow night. A warm

day, 25 degrees the hotspot in East Anglia, and in northern Scotland,

Kinross got up to 24 .5 Celsius. Quite a bit of cloud overnight,

bringing thundery showers northwards over Scotland.