Professor Sergey Karaganov - Advisor to the Presidential Administration of Russia, 2001 - 2013 HARDtalk

said that America had lost a national treasure `` former. Now it

is time for HARDtalk. Welcome to HARDtalk. I am Stephen Sackur. How

far can Vladimir Putin and his iron fist foreign`policy? Crimea is his

but to Russia's next move in eastern but to Russia's next move in eastern

Ukraine is much less as is the extent of their neo` imperialist

ambition. My guest is Sergey Karaganov, one of Russia's most

influential foreign`policy thinkers and until recently an advisor to

President Putin. Is restoring Russian greatness a coherent

strategy? Sergey Karaganov, welcome to

HARDtalk. Beginning if you would by describing for me the mindset of the

foreign`policy strategists in and around the Kremlin. You were one of

them. What is the mindset? For the last 20 years, Russia has dealt with

powers that were defeated but we have never considered ourselves

defeated. After 1000 years of history, we thought that we had won

over communism in the Second World War. We were counted as a defeated

power and later in the European Union, I went further and further

east despite our arguments against our interests. If I may extrapolate

from that, you are suggesting that the key motivator for Russian

foreign`policy is anger coming frustration and a sense of

humiliation? That sense of humiliation was very much there.

Absolutely. It was very much there and we were very much afraid of

verse I `` Versailles syndrome growing in our country. We had to

encourage our foreign policy not to go that far and go against Russian

interests but we were not listened to. We had to use our iron fist. You

look pretty pleased with that characterisation. No, I did not like

the idea. In the end coming when Georgia attacked me we had fight and

people were killed. But unfortunately, the story was not

over and so again, a replay of that game and this time with the

Ukraine. Ukraine was much more sensitive in terms of part of the

world for Russia. One would assume that whether we are talking about

foreign`policy makers in Washington, DC or Beijing or Delhi or Moscow, in

the end, rationality and a clear idea of self`preservation would be

the key motivator but it seems that in Russia today, it is much more

about the motion. You have compared feelings in Russia to the period in

Germany after the First World War settlement which left them so bitter

and resentful and frustrated. Emotion is a dangerous thing, is it

not to driver foreign`policy? It is, of course. The foreign`policy

establishment to which I belong have been trying to persuade the citizens

that it is bad by sometimes reforming or persuading and

sometimes by force like when we went to war which no one advised us to

do. It was a terrible cost, a small victory. You are suggesting to me

that you are a rationalist who is trying to rein in the emotions from

Moscow. I'm wondering if that is really true because after all, you

were the foreign`policy thinker who develop this idea, went back to the

1990s of using ethnic Russians in the post`Soviet space as a sort of

fifth column. That was your idea. That is exactly the problem. I said

that we should look at our Russian brothers not as a liability, like

the Jews of our country that they would be successful. And you said

that we should control them as Russia. No, I said that there was a

doctrine that Russians should control them and should use them and

to defend them but I never said that. That was precisely the premise

that Vladimir Putin used. Over the past years I have been lambasted for

that doctrine but I did not say that because I was sympathetic to our

Estonian friends. The fact is that Vladimir Putin has used this notion

that Russia has a duty to protect the ethnic Russians and Russian

speakers in eastern Ukraine wallowing on from Crimea as the

absolute foundation of his foreign`policy. It is not the only

foreign`policy. I must also say that it British people had not rejected

their people abroad, they would not be a respected country. ``

protected. Guest coming but these ethnic Russians, they are Georgians

or Ukrainians, a have a nationality. The game is to stop expansion. There

is an on finished Cold War in Europe. Russia had been proposing

this for 20 years. So this is the power plate that Russia is involved

in. Invading sovereign countries with which you have signed

treaties, you just ignore that. We tell them that they are making a

terrible mistake by trying to involve the Ukrainians fear of

interest. Making them into cannon fodder, our Western friends will

remember that and they knew what they were doing. They sacrificed

Ukraine. It is an odd phrase to talk about the West using Ukraine as

cannon fodder when it is Russia... I am sorry, but when the West got the

Ukraine involved in NATO, then they had their relationship with the

European Union which was absolutely senseless. It is against the

interests of some Europeans. Ukraine was doomed the day that was

offered. You say Ukraine doomed, let's talk about a confusing

situation today. Vladimir Putin has said that he respects the result of

the Ukrainian presidential election, he has refused to add his

legitimacy to the separatist referendums that we saw in the east

of the country so there are people, including for example, 14 and

ambassador in the Ukraine that the effort to destabilize the Ukraine is

losing steam. Do you agree? I think unfortunately, the common effort of

the West has succeeded already. Ukraine is profoundly destabilized.

It had been a semi` failed state and now it is a failed state. The only

question is when and how it can return to order, hopefully with the

help from the east and west but if we continue to fight over them, it

is doomed to disintegrate into pieces. It is already in a Civil

War. You call it a Civil War and speak with weary resignation about

the fate of the Ukraine but the fact is that Moscow is not an observer

but a player in this, I'm agent provocateur `` on. We know that

Russians are crossing into Ukraine to fight with the separatists and

that the head of the Council in Donetsk is actually a Russian. The

we are a very numerous nation. And none of this happened by accident.

There are many lies in the story and I do not know the truth but what I

know for sure is that the local insurgents hate Kiev because of

their policies. They were humiliated by the way not only Russian speakers

but Ukrainian speakers were treated. They do not want the

government in Kiev to govern them. 58% of Ukrainians in the east of the

country, in .net and Luhansk do want to stay in Ukraine. Sure and that is

why Russia is not supporting their cries for independence. So Russia is

going to backtrack? No, Crimea had an overwhelming majority of people

who wanted to be Russian. So we are trying to control that to the

largest extent possible but no one controls the insurgents anymore. We

began by speaking about the mindset in Moscow and you said it was a

sense of humiliation fuelling what we have seen over the last few

months. Would you accept that when people look at what Moscow can

offer, and the politics and economy of Russia compared to what they see

within the European Union, Russia is not a very attractive offer right

now, is it? I agree. Unfortunately we are not that well developed. We

are not that rich. Hopefully we will overcome and become something

better. You were not free or democratic. It is possible for me to

speak my mind. You are an ally of Vladimir Putin. Sometimes I am a

very bitter opponent of my government. Not in this particular

case. The reason why is that my country is waging a political war

and so I will be with my country this time. It has to be that way,

does it? Even if you have serious doubts about the motivation?

Absolutely. My country has been attacked politically so I am

defending it. It is a very defensive mindset. A negative mindset. No, it

is a positive mindset for Russians. Secondly, Russia has been built on

one idea and that is depends. Over many years. How could you possibly

do away with that even if you wanted to? I am a very relaxed man but I

know my people. But when you talk about Russia and its future, you

can't just talk about territory, you have to talk about the economy. The

problem with Russia today is that it is fundamentally a one track

economy. It has commodity resources and not much else. Every indication

suggests that what has happened in the Ukraine crisis with the outflow

of capital from Moscow will have very serious and long`term damaging

effects on the Russian economy. We have been on a downturn we are

relaxed. We have to rest after almost 100 years of suffering. The

communists during the revolution, I am extremely unhappy with the

liberals and we are doing nothing but that is our business, I'm sorry

and we will have to do that or else we will disintegrate. But you see

that if we mixed economy and politics and the foreign`policy of

Vladimir Putin... You have said that we have got it wrong, that our

foreign policy is counterproductive but I put it to you that Vladimir

Putin will care when his economy is flatlining. There will be a

stalemate this year and $50 billion worth of capital will be fleeing the

country. Vladimir Putin will care. The problem is that we have

legitimate private property because of the way privatisation was done in

the 1990s. These are different problems. Capital was running

anyway. this notion you have that the West

can make sanctions and it will make no difference. But it will make

differences. The way the West has been using the sanctions is as a way

to undermine the long`term position of the West. The West has created

the monetary, judicial and system... And they are using that. I

dare economies like the Germans and the Americans can withstand whatever

cost come from imposing sanctions on Russia better than Russia can. Yes,

but in the long`term... We need an external shock so we can start

working again. That is precisely the language used by the most extreme

elements in Moscow today. One of them has said, we need to shop our

own citizens to the point where economic relations with the West are

completely abandoned. `` shock. And then we will realise we need to

purify and cleanse our nation from within. When he talks about the

fundamental pillar of Russian policy going forward as anti`American

is... No. And he is also anti`European, by the way, but I

think we have to come to our senses. The nation has been corrupted by the

flow of easy money. But that is our problem and we will have to do, to

deal with that. I'm not sure if it has anything to do with the crisis

in European security that we call the crisis in Ukraine. But what is

Russia's way forward? You have talked about a kind of Weimar

sentiment in your country, anger at how would you have been treated, but

you say that the extremist and build on that are wrong. What is the way

forward? We have not been investing in our country for 20 years. That is

the way. Education and moral education. And then, of course, a

return to the rule of law. We have our programmes. Unfortunately, until

now, these problems were not being listened to by various people.

People are relaxed. I dare say they are relaxed in the Kremlin. I'm not.

Some Russians looking at the economic situation going forward

might not be so relaxed. I hope they start to understand that we have to

work. I want to return to the internal dynamics in Russia in a

moment but before we do, because you have such long experience in foreign

policy strategy and because you have advised Putin, I want you to tell me

what you think he sees as Russia's best interests now, trying to

somehow rebuild relationships with Washington and European capitals or,

as he seems to be doing these last few weeks, pivoting to raging? First

of all, pivoting to Asia is good news. We have not been using the

possibilities, which were open and have been open in Asia for 15 years

for the simple reason that we were Eurocentric first and that we had

such little money, second. Hopefully we will open to the East in China,

where the markets are. That is good news. It may be good news if it is

serious but why should one take seriously this means that Russia and

China are developing a new and powerful alliance when we have seen

over decades dispute over borders and regional issues always undermine

trust between your country and China? I don't think we will have an

alliance but a very close relationship. The only country with

which China has no problems if Russia and vice`versa. China is a

global power that is growing and Russia is in decline. That is the

future. We are more equal than they are for the reason that sometimes

Putin is number one and not the Chinese president. You don't believe

that, do you? You don't believe Putin exercises more power? I mean

that his base is shrinking. That is a problem. We have to fix the base.

But before that, we have to have a secure front with the West and that

front has becoming insecure again and again. Which takes us back to

where we started, the iron fist. And then to build and signed a peace

treaty so we can be secure and friendly with the West. You don't

have that many friends in the West at the moment. We do have friends.

Unfortunately, we thought that we had security. I was only saying that

the West has not finished the Cold War. Perhaps Moscow cannot get rid

of the Cold War mentality. Well, unfortunately, the Cold War was also

in Moscow but most of the Cold War was in the West and the expansion of

NATO was a clear`cut policy, a hostile policy. We were told that it

was not against us while people were looking in our eyes. Like if Russia

put a battleship on the River Thames in front of Westminster and said it

is not against you. Your message to the new president in Ukraine is that

you will never be allowed to join European and western institutions

like nature and EU and that the state will always, because Moscow

insists upon it, the deeply fragmented. Is that right? No. If

they are able to have a more or less stable state after the past 20

years, do your best. A peaceful Ukraine is our great hope.

Unfortunately, Ukraine has failed as a viable state. As for NATO

membership, that is exactly what I would say to them stop never? Never.

Before we finish, one final thought. You have set the scene on a mindset

in Moscow that blames so much on the West and Western policy. Is it not

the case that actually the Soviet system collapse from within and it

is very like that the Putin system will collapse from within as well?

If you look at demographic decline, corruption across the economy and

judiciary, or dysfunctional politics and economy dominated by the state,

the oligarchy... Russia does not have a good, long`term future. I

would say that I have lived long enough in my country. We collapsed

in the 1980s. We collapsed in the 1990s. Somehow miraculously, we have

survived. We grew from the ashes. 1999, my country was a failed state.

We can acknowledge that. If the revolution had started there, it

would have finished. I believe the only explanation that we survived

was that the Almighty decided to help us. I want to pin you down. Yes

or no. Do you think the trajectory of Putin's Russia is that of

strength and success or not? It will end but not yet. We have to leave it

there. Thank you for joining us on HARDtalk. It has been a very grey

and wet damp few days across much of the country. However, conditions

will improve later in the week. This area of low pressure will be with us

again over the course of Thursday, bringing rain too much of