Linas Linkevicius, Foreign Minister of Lithuania HARDtalk


Linas Linkevicius, Foreign Minister of Lithuania

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Welcome to HARDtalk, I'm Stephen Sackur.

:00:00.:00:08.

What impact will the election of Donald Trump have

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Judging from the expressions of alarm coming from Eastern Europe,

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it could tilt the balance of power decisively in favour of Russia

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as regional tensions rise, but is that just scaremongering?

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My guest today is Lithuania's Foreign Minister, Linas Linkevicius,

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who recently described himself as very afraid

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Linas Linkevicius, welcome to HARDtalk.

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Just a few days ago, you did something really extraordinary.

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You told your own people that you were feeling very afraid.

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Let's accomplish the sentence to the end because there is no

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reason to go to the extremes, to be panicked or to be relaxed.

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We should find some middle approach, I believe.

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Very afraid because of Russia's intentions, you said?

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You said that, over the next couple of months, you feared.

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To be precise, I was talking about the period before I assume

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responsibilities, end of January, much time to go.

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I was talking about that sensitive period, and we should be

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You said that the Russians may "step up aggression.

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"Russia is not a superpower, it is a superproblem."

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Yes, indeed, because the GDP of Russia is less than Italy

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They do have nuclear weapons, unfortunately

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But the rest is very dangerous when they are testing,

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probing, testing reactions, whether somebody will do

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something at all if something is happening in the world.

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And this period of uncertainty is really a period for testing,

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for all of us, of our leadership, of our resilience,

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I was afraid that something would happen in the

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Aleppo will be smashed to the ground, for

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I think, today, we are not going to talk so much

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We are going to talk about what you fear might happen

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We are living on the continent, which is also surrounded

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You can either seek to calm situations down or you can stoke

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the flames of attention and potential conflict.

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It just strikes me as odd that your government,

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and I'm just looking at the record of the recent past, you've

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reintroduced military conscription, you produced a pretty amazing

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pamphlet which advises the civilian population on what to do in terms

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of an invasion from an enemy, and one can only assume

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You've also launched a telephone hotline for citizens

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to report on anyone they suspect of being a spy.

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Look, I know these emotions are important, but it's

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very important, really, to find this middle position,

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and we shouldn't scare our people more than is needed.

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And to do ourselves what we have to do.

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When we are talking that Nato must remain capable,

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must react to the current challenges, and it's done,

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by the way, it's in the process, decisions which were taken in Wales

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and later, Warsaw, being implemented, and we are very

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happy with the process, regardless of the noise

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But while we are expecting that Nato will deliver,

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So what you mentioned, conscripts to the Army,

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I was the former Defence Minister and, frankly, I was never in favour

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of abolishing conscripts, but now we're back to that.

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Increasing defence spending, we are criticised even by President

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It's legitimate criticism, by the way, but we will give no

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We will do that and we are that doing already, and the dynamics

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So we are doing what we have to do ourselves.

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I was going to save it for a while and get to it later

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It's pretty extraordinary as you are telling your own people,

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family by family, that they should prepare for the possibility

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of an invasion, you are telling them to look out for spies at home,

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but your government doesn't even pay the Nato threshold of 2% of GDP

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Yes, I agree, so why is it not a fact which we have now?

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We are paying, our dynamics have increased the best among Nato.

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We are paying 1.8% and, by 2018, it will be 2%.

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But it makes it seem like you are crying wolf a little bit.

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You do all of this stuff, telling your own people

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they are in grave danger, but you don't even get serious

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enough to spend 2% of GDP on defence!

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You would be right if you would criticise me some years ago

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but you are not quite correct because we are talking about now,

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and this is commitment shared by all political parties,

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it's sustainable and really no reason for whomever

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We have, all Europeans, we have to be serious on this,

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and defence spending, as you know, as you said

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Fulfilling the threshold, that's the point.

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We will get back to that later on but at the heart of all of this

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is your contention that Vladimir Putin represents a real

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That would be not correct, if we talk just about our region.

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I think he represents a threat to all the world.

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But I want to know what is your specific evidence?

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Because I'm very mindful that Moscow responds to the sorts

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of things you say by saying, you've got this is the completely

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We, in Russia, are responding to Nato expansionism,

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Nato is putting more and more troops on our western flank,

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Nato is putting elite forces into exercises,

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unprecedented in the history of the North Atlantic

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Treaty Organisation, right on our border,

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it's Nato that's flexing its muscle, not us.

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This is a very good trick for their propaganda.

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They are very gifted in accusing others about what they are doing

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And those who are experts and, knowing the situation more

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precisely, they know that it's nothing even to compare when we're

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talking about the number of troops on the border, jets,

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activity in the vicinity of our airspace or territorial

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waters number of snap exercises or concentration

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of new weapons or modernised jets, nothing by far to compare.

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You talk about the missiles, nuclear capable missiles

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put into Kaliningrad, obviously very close

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But the point is, the Russians say, we see what Nato's up to.

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There were 4000 troops in Lithuania on the Operation Iron Sword

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I just went to Poland earlier this year, spoke to the US

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He was telling me about all the preparations they are making

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to repel a Russian attack with vast numbers of troops and

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Nato is making these plans right on Russia's border.

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What's Vladimir Putin supposed to do?

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He says that nothing to compare. We talk about numbers, frequency of

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exercises. They are accusing others that they have to use these

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responsive measures but in fact we are using that. But we will not

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escalate. But at the same time, no one should doubt that we will make

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sure our security is guaranteed. Everything we have talked about has

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been unfolding over months and years. The Russian intervention in

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Ukraine was a key moment for you. But the key new element that we have

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to wrestle with the day is the election of Donald Trump and the

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United States. How rattled or shocked or disappointed with you by

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the US election result? There is no reason to be shoptalk disappointed,

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we should face reality and respect the decisions of Americans. But you

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did not want Trump to win because he has made it plain he has an

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admiration for Vladimir Putin, he wants to work much more closely with

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him, and his intention and priority is to work with the Russians on

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counterterror and not get so worked up about what Russia is doing in

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your region. Let's not talk about everything at once but fragments. He

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criticised Nato. He says an less Nato is fundamentally reformed

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common here is not interested. Businessman Trump was briefed about

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Nato because he was not involved in foreign policy. Other issues were

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discussed but not foreign policy. He was briefed on how nature works and

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was informed that the US should pay 70% of Nato bills course he was not

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happy. So this is a reminder of enforcement, what we are doing. I

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agree. Maybe it was done sharply but he was right. Here is a quote from

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Donald Trump in the year 2000. America has no vital interest in

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choosing between warring factions whose animosities go back centuries

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in Eastern Europe. You can mention more statements. But there was an

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electoral campaign, there were statements statements and

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corrections. But responsibility now comes. When the administration is in

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place, they have to be responsible for everything. I simply cannot

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imagine... I know foreign ministers are to be diplomatic but be honest.

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Let's have the truth on this one. When Newt Gingrich last summer,

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close advice and support of Donald Trump, he said, Estonia is in the

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suburbs of St Petersburg, 40% of Estonia is Russian, I am not sure if

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I would risk nuclear war of some place in the suburbs of St

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Petersburg. I am simply pointing out that these are the kinds of people

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but Donald Trump is taking his advice from getting his mindset

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from. I meant other people quite close to President-elect Trump, like

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the former mayor of new York. He was very passionate and enthusiastic

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about Baltic states. In general, I cannot imagine he'd changed his

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mind. I'm not advocating statements made by Newt Gingrich which were not

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correct. We were not happy with the statements because they were not

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polite and frankly wrong. Estonia is not a suburb of St Petersburg! That

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is what we could call a rhetorical flourish. But what I would say to

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you is that the evidence is, and leave aside the detail of Trump,

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because it is yet to be seen what he would do, but the mindset in

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Washington as a whole, and one could even say that Barack Obama shed this

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to a certain extent, is to question the utility of Nato as it works at

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the present time. Would you accept that? No. Nato is one of the most

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successful organisations in history in terms of security. I have no

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doubt it will be sent to the normal proper places. There was a phone

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call recently between the Secretary General of Nato and President-elect

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Trump. I have no doubt that the US will remain a leader of Nato. It

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will happen. And we should not just put aside the argument that a team

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is coming. Over 4000 officials will be appointed, approved by the Senate

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and Congress. But it will come from a Republican poll, which is well

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known. I could imagine corrections but I do not agree that there will

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be some revolution or U-turn or major changes in the traditional

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position of the United States. I think perhaps you may be missing a

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trend in the United States. I interviewed a former Defence

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Secretary and he said the US Congress is not interested in

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funding Nato in the future. I was present during his speech. You know

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the President Obama used the phrase free riders will you was frustrated

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with Nato members who do not pay your way. You are a small country of

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3 million in a small organisation. How will you persuade those free

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riders that unless the step up to the plate, they are jeopardising the

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very future of the organisation? When we try to draw attention of the

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world after 2008, we all remember, we were condemning what happened, we

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made statements. In a few months, we got back to business as usual

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because there were calls to be pragmatic and diplomatic, economy,

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trade is important. We were told we were wrong, we should be consistent.

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We're not saying anybody should believe what we are saying but how

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they should respect our decisions. Those were lessons not learned by us

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but by others, by Russia, and they realised that in the 21st century,

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it is possible to redraw the borders of Europe with little damage. That

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was not the first but one of the lessons in 2008. Personally I said

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it would be Crimea. Crimea already happened. Crimea, which Donald Trump

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has indicated is minded to recognise Russian sovereignty. I doubt that

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will happen. I cannot imagine. We have to respect world order. If

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somebody that order... Some may say that you sound like a man in denial!

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Why a? You say to me I'd put to you these various things that Trump has

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said, and you just say I refuse to think about it. I did not say that.

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I am just trying to invite you and give a chance for them to deliver

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something and then we will judge. It would be counter-productive to

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prejudge or conclude or panic or shock or terror. It is not helpful.

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If we need to preserve what was invested in done together, for the

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sake of each other, not at the expense of each other. It will come.

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I know their own nuances, there were statements I was not happy with, but

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it is an electoral campaign. It is different now. It is a few days

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since the election result became clear. We have that key

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appointments, like a man who says he wants to reset relations with

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Moscow. Are any of these people restart your government? There was

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some congressmen sending messages, I remember, saying, if something would

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happen, it was addressed to people in Poland, we will be there, Trump

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will be there if necessary. There were statements. There was no direct

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contact. Is that bit disappointing? Let's not jump to conclusions, it is

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not professional to be disappointed! If it is not professional to be

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disappointed, let me not express disappointment but surprise that,

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after having told me everything about the need for Nato to be

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strong, stick together, show a clear message to Vladimir Putin, how many

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troops does your country actually provide right now to the Nato rapid

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response force? We are providing not just of the Nato rapid response

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force but we have our own. Please answer the question. We are sending

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up to 1000 or even more. As I understood from the reading I have

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done, you currently provide just over 200 infantry troops. In

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defencemen. We have 2500, our own rapid reaction troops. But this is

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about the contribution to Nato. Nato is demanding much greater

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solidarity. OK, we are a small country, our total size of the force

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is not big, nobody expects quantity but quality. We are providing very

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high-quality special troops. They are active in Afghanistan. You can

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suppose they are with and the SS and a performance highly. So the quality

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of what we provide is really sufficient. Quantity will not be

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impressive but it is not our goal. We have to contribute but also do

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ourselves. You should not neglect what I said, 2500 national troops.

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It is the same segment. We have talked a lot about Nato and the

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United States after the Trump victory. Let's now focus on Europe

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itself. It seems to me you have a big problem in Europe as well. For

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all of your appeals for European solidarity, there are a number of

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governments and political parties in Europe are showing increasing signs

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of getting disaffected from on Russia and are beginning to make

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noises, saying, we should have a warmer relationship with Moscow. Why

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is this happening? Many reasons that I cannot disclose but I can provide

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you with examples. When we talk about our legacy, it is one story,

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when we talk about the rest of Europe... I am thinking of Hungary,

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Bulgaria, which is just elected a President who has said, let's end

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sanctions against Moscow. There are some politicians. Speaking about

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Bulgaria, it is not only one man creating the situation. The problem

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is, and you quite rightly noticed, this is applicable to Europe and

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overseas, populism is taking over and people do not listen to the

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arguments, they take decisions by emotion. Politicians should feel

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responsible for that. Why does populism involve a warmer

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relationship with Putin? Lack of leadership, missing targets. You did

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not want to touch on Aleppo but let me mention, there are family photos,

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organisations in charge, United Nations. People are being killed.

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People are frustrated. They do not believe in peace and order in the

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world or these organisations. It is applicable to the governments and

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people, and they are punishing their governments when they vote for a

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referendum so elections, they are punishing current governments, not

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necessarily voting for the question raised during the referendum. It is

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something we have to address seriously otherwise we will lose the

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catch everywhere and this is big. There are intelligence officials and

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the United States and Europe and commentators who say Russia is

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playing a very clever game here. They are using information,

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propaganda, other forms of reach out to people and parties in Europe. In

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conventional warfare, there was an artillery attack before a real

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battle, now there is no need. You can brainwash. Brainwash? ! You are

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saying Moscow has the programme of brainwashing? It happened in Crimea,

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the people were brainwashed by state-controlled media, spreading

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lies, it is a big weapon. You are saying they are doing the same thing

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in Europe? Everywhere, and also the UK, in France, Italy. Evidence? If

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people are complacent but they are doing, if there are ideas, let's

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knew something because is provocative, it is wrong. Not doing

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is provocative, not acting when you need to act is provocative. I am not

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hearing any evidence brainwashing. In Crimea, people were convinced by

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state media that bandits and fascists were coming to kill them.

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It was well known. We know that from our sources, we were scared. They

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welcomed Russian soldiers who came to save them. This is a massive

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psychological attack, brainwashing. How can it be called in your view? I

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see no evidence that there is brainwashing in Europe. There have

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been allegations of Russians giving the French far right party money. It

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is financed by sources outside and it is a caper people, it is fine

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with everyone. Or if you have a referendum in some country, taking

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hostage the Ukraine, as was in the Netherlands, for instance. So you

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see this as a pattern? People are realising something when it comes

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close, personally. Thinking happened after MH 17. If something happens in

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Europe, it is our continent. Maybe we should end with this thought.

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Isn't that should do everything we have discussed, the triumphs of

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Trump, the messages he is delivering, right now, it looks as

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if Vladimir Putin is getting his way? He is always getting his way

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because he is testing, probing, testing whether we will react, how

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will it will react, he continues to do what he has to do, those are his

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methods. So you are still very afraid? It would be wrong if it is

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just our problem. It is our own problem. Time will come and we will

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see ourselves but how many wake-up calls are needed to wake up? It

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depends. It is better to wake up when it is time to wake up. Thank

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you very much for being an HARDtalk. Most of us can look forward to

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plenty of fine sunny weather tomorrow. You need to wear layers to

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keep the cold out. A hard frost setting here. Mild across the far

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north

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